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Speaker 1: You're lie.

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Speaker 2: Welcome everyone to the best sports betting show on the planet.

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This is wager Talk Today. I am your host, Andy Lang.

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It is five dollars Tuesday. We're gonna give you the

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blueprint to attack college football, NFL preseason, and MLB. If

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you're not following the trends, not following the steam, you're

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already behind. We're gonna get you up to speed. The

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show is where you get the sharp perspective, the right angles,

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and the plays that really move the needle. Ralph Michaels

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is gonna join us. We're gonna talk Fresno State and Kansas.

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We're also gonna talk Steelers and the Panthers, NFL preseason.

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Brian Power is gonna join us, talk Guardians and the Diamondbacks.

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Then we're gonna talk a little Texas, A and M

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and Oregon futures here, maybe some season win totals, maybe

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just how we want to bet them throughout the season,

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or at least to start the season. So don't forget

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to hit the like button. Subscribe to the wager Talk

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YouTube channel. At the end of the show, I will

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do Dana White Contender series quick little breakdown. I'll try

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and make a case for every underdog on the card,

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so stay tuned for that. Let's do a quick steam report.

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Gianni is recording for Contender Series with UFC, so he's

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not here, so let's start in NFL preseason. Not a

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ton of movement. Carolina has taken a little bit of money.

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We're gonna get Ralph breaking down that, but not a

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ton of movement there. The biggest movement by far, New

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England started off at minus two and a half. They

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are to minus six and a half, so blasting through

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key numbers. Also some movement on the over on that one.

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The New York Jets opened up at half. They've moved

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up to three against Dan's Philadelphia Eagles. The Jets have

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looked truly horrendous in preseason, so my guess is this

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line is saying they need to get some of their

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stuff right. We talked a little bit about the Falcons

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being faded, but money has come back in on the

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Falcons state even after we talked about it yesterday. So

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other than that, I don't see a whole lot of

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movement for NFL preseason. Some of the total I don't

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see totals yet going over forty, so it looks like

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these totals are still coming in under forty. We saw

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a lot of undersind with that regression back to the mean.

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Going to WNBA, I don't see a lot. New York

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has taken a little bit. They went from minus one

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to minus three. If you're betting the Chicago sky game,

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check the injury report. Angel Reese has been upgraded to

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questionable instead of doubtful. That's a big, big deal with

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this line for the Seattle. Seattle's minus eleven and a

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half in the Chicago Sky's team is much much better

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with Angel Reese in the lineup on that. Not a

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whole lot of steam in WNBA, and we moved to MLB.

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The only really big line, big move I see is

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this monster number on the Dodgers. They opened at minus

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two to sixty five. I'm seeing minus three hundred over

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at a book, and looks like there's some under money

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coming in on this Houston Detroit game. All you Detroit

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Tigers fans and Happy School Day, Everyboddy come in on

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Houston and there's a little bit of money come in

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on the over. So I'm not sure what they're seeing

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with Schooball and Brown going, but they're not liking the

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Detroit Tigers today than that, a whole lot of movement

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of note, I guess the only other one. There's a

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lot of money's come in on the money line on

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Philly and we're gonna go over Philly in all around

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the world. So that's gonna be your steam report. Let's

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jump to Ralph Michaels. We got to talk a little football.

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We have to talk college football and NFL preseason. Ralph,

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how are you, sir? How was your weekend?

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Speaker 3: Brother?

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Speaker 2: Happy Tuesday to you.

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Speaker 4: Hell Andy, it's been months since I've been on Wager

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Talk today. Happy to be back now that football started.

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You know, just doing the no run first inning in

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the summer is his has kept me off the show.

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Speaker 1: But excited looking forward.

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Speaker 4: We'll bring back the charts next week, bringing up a

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making you a better better each week on the segment.

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So so excited for the football season to start.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well let's start with you know, let's start Fresno

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State in Kansas, and you know both teams do have

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some returning players here. I know Warner is going to

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be back for Kansas. This is Kurt Warnerson, I believe,

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walk us through this game. Tell us everything you know

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about these teams, who's coming back, what's been the changes,

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and what do you expect? Kansas pretty big favorite in

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this one.

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Speaker 4: Well, Andy, when you're sitting at a bar this week,

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ask them which game matches up a pair of national

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championship coaches?

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Speaker 1: Well, guess what it's.

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Speaker 4: This game Fresno State and Kansas played Saturday, August twenty third,

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six thirty pm on Fox. Matt Ens takes over Fresno State.

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He was at North Dakota State for five years. His

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record was sixty to eleven and he was a two

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time national champion at North Dakota State. He did actually

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leave two years ago. He was the USC linebacker coach

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last year. But this is a qualified head coach that

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knows how to get his team to win on the

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flip side. While he hasn't had that same type of success,

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Let's remember that Lance Leopold was a sixth time national

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championship at D three Wisconsin Whitewater. So two coaches coming

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up through the ranks. Now have these teams Kansas off

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a five and seven season. You just had the team switched.

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Before Kansas does return their quarterback, that is Jalen Daniels, listen,

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he's mobile, he can get some first downs, but hopefully

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he's matured to bed fifty seven percent with a fourteen

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to twelve ratio last year is not what you expect

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from a multi year starting quarterback. They lost their top

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six receivers, did Kansas, and they have three new offensive

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linemen starting overall. Off that five and seven season, they

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returned ten starters and their incoming talent was number sixty one.

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Fresno State had him off here. We thought we were

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expecting a lot of them. A couple of years ago

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they had success. Remember they had a coaching issue and

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he had a step down in the spring, so they

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had a reset and bring in a new coach for

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last year. Now they hire another new coach. That concerns

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me long term. But in this quick instance you mentioned

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they bring an EJ.

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Speaker 1: Warner.

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Speaker 4: He is a transfer. He is the son of Hall

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of Famer Kurt. He had eleven starts at Tempo a

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couple of years ago, ten or eleven starts at Rice

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last year, and I did like his maturation process with

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the Owls starting last season. Again, I make this line fifteen,

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but early in the year, all I do is put

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down my power rating numbers you know where I think

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they should be. But early in the year I don't

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use my power rating numbers at all. I am not

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at everyone's camp. Yes, I can read what the media

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tries to tell us, but again, until I actually see

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a team play, I won't start using their power ratings

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completely to weeks two.

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Speaker 1: Three, or four.

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Speaker 4: For those I do want to say this, Kansas has

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won their last three openers by forty five, thirty one,

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and forty six points. Now well that sales and depressive.

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All three are against FCSFO and last year they didn't

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even cover. They were a forty seven point favorite. I

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look at Kansas over the last two years all and

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four against the spread as a double digit favorite.

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Speaker 1: They're not one to extend the lead overall.

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Speaker 4: When I look at college football teams playing their season

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opener as a favorite of seven or more the last

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two years, they are only forty five point two percent,

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And if it's a lower total and you're a favorite

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of seven or more, it is actually forty two point

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three percent against the spread the last two seasons.

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Speaker 1: Kansas will run the ball more. Fresno State will run

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the ball more.

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Speaker 4: In this case, I lean Fresno I think he can

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get the job done, keep this game lower scoring. But

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my best bet for the show under fifty one Jayhawks

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and Bulldogs Saturday night.

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Speaker 2: Do you expect some of these teams? I'm not necessarily

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meaning these two teams, but are there some teams that

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you're like, oh, they've got returning coaches and quarterbacks, their

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offenses are going to be a lot more clicking than

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some of these other teams. Or there's some teams you're

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going way, way, way too many moving parts here. We're

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looking at unders because you brought up a you know,

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you brought up a good point about about looking at

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this under in this game. So are there teams that

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you're looking at situationally with over and unders in week one,

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trying to work out the kinks, or maybe they have continuity?

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Speaker 1: Well, Andy, I'll be until three years ago.

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Speaker 4: I used to be ninety nine percent set at the

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start of college football season. But with the transfers now,

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and you know, with as many people moving in and

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out and these freshmen coming in and playing immediately, I

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try not to say this team is going to be

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this much better. I have an idea they are. I

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give them an up barrow. I wait to see what happens.

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But I've learned this There's teams that I thought were

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going to be horrible, and coaches were magnificent melding in

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their transfers to have positive teams. So I basically it's

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eye test what I read and what I break down

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on the roster the first few weeks, and then after that,

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I don't even worry how many starters they had. I

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don't worry how many transfers they have. It's all eye

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tests for me. Week three and on.

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Speaker 2: Let's move to the NFL preseason Steelers and the Panthers. Admittedly,

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these are two teams I have not really followed that

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much have I mean, obviously we know Aaron Rodgers and

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we know a little bit about the Panthers, but I

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feel like the Panthers kind of flying under the radar

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here a little bit. I have high hope for the

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Panthers in the regular season. I think they're going to

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surprise some people. But for this preseason game, we got

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Pittsburgh nine is four and a half over under, just

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a really low thirty six and a half. What do

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you expect in this game?

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Speaker 4: Well, you had mentioned week zero in Week one preseason

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over unders went fourteen and three. Now, while they fell

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back a little bit last week, they still went eight

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and five. So that means through Week two, NFL preseason

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games are twenty and eight over under seventy one point

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four percent to the under. So I actually think this

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line should be a few points higher, but because of

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those results, they didn't have to drop it as much

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as they should. That's where I think the value is.

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By the way, Andy, the twenty eight teams that have

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won preseason games this year, all twenty eight have covered.

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So if you like an underdog, hey, perhaps i'll steal

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a VR line sprinkle some of that on the money line. Obviously,

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the games that tied the favorites lost, but outright winners

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have all covered the game, be it favorites or dogs.

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You look at Carolina, they haven't shown much this preseason.

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Their offense averaging two hundred and seventy yards per game

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that is number thirty one. Their defense has play well,

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they're only allowing four point three eight yards per play

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that is number seven. Pittsburgh's offense has had some success.

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Their number eight no offense, and they're a number eleven

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in defense. So Carolina that comes into this game minus

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eighty yards per game Pittsburgh plus fifty two. Now we

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know if a team wants to look good in the preseason,

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you can. So what are these two teams gonna do

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this week? Well, I expect them to do much what

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they did last week. Obviously we don't see Rogers for

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Pittsburgh at all. Rudolph played three series, Skyler Thompson played

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five series, and Woodside finished up the game. Remember Woodside

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came in and he only signed on August seventh. So

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on the back end of the Pittsburgh you have a

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very weak quarterback rotation. Last week, the Steelers quarterbacks combined

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for three I in t's. That's why they lost to

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Tampa Bay. Bryce Young had two attempts last week, Dalton

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had four attempts, and Plumber had fourteen attempts. The thing

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that jumps out to me the Carolina Panthers only ran

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forty three plays on offense last year. All he wants

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to do is line up, get this game done. Look

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for a few things. Can alis one in four over under. Now,

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Tomlin was an elite preseason coach. He went eighteen and

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four straight up from twenty seventeen to twenty twenty three.

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Last year zero to three failed to cover by twenty

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eight points per game. So what are we getting this year?

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This year they're won and one. They won the opener.

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They lost last week to Tampa Bay with those three turnovers,

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So it seems he's sort of going back to where

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he was wanting to win the preseason, and this quote

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impressed me. We came out of here and we got

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to work immediately on Carolina this afternoon. We're working on

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a short week. We just transitioned quickly moving to the

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Panthers a good deal of energy. It's important not to

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waste days and transition being back in this environment, We've

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got a lot of work to do. We're working and

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working with urgency.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 4: After his practice today, he's going to release his quarterback rotations,

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so if it's favorable, I may be leaning with Pittsburgh here,

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but I can't give out that opinion until I know

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the rotations. But clearly I do like the under thirty

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five and a half. You said it's low. I think

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it should be lower. Under best bet Steelers Panthers.

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Speaker 2: I'll tell you, Ralph, nothing is more exciting than betting

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an under thirty six and a half in the NFL preseason.

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You gotta be a maniac to watch NFL preseason and

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then be excited for the under thirty six and a half.

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Oh man, you know what one.

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Speaker 4: Thing that is scary I do tell you this, Andy,

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is that you see many small pick sixes in the

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preseason than you do the regular season. So there are

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times where you have those backup quarterbacks, but if they're

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slinging the ball around, you can run into trouble in

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those situations.

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Speaker 2: I've done decent on some of the ALT team total overs,

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and one of them we cashed on a pick six.

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It was the first half easy cash because you know

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there was a pick six. We had the Commanders last

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night going up against the terrible Bengals defense, and so yeah,

269
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so there are there are there are some interesting values

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in those, but yeah, under thirty six that NFL preseason, Ralph.

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Do you have a free play up on your Fear

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and nerfee? Yes?

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Speaker 4: Always, every day, Andy. My free plays are on an

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eight and one run. I have a free play every day,

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00:14:10,919 --> 00:14:14,159
Nurfy free Play. I do a Nurfy video every day,

276
00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:17,679
so check it out on TikTok or YouTube tv. That

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00:14:17,799 --> 00:14:20,639
every day Monday through Friday, we go through streaks, we

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00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:23,039
go through the starters, go through making you a better better,

279
00:14:23,080 --> 00:14:25,519
and give you that free play. So check it out

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00:14:25,679 --> 00:14:30,720
WT Dot buzzbackslash RM and remember you buy September. Get

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00:14:30,759 --> 00:14:33,480
the rest of August for free last year in college

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00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:37,000
football number two at wager Talk behind the red Hot

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00:14:37,039 --> 00:14:42,240
Ross Benjamin my NFL My NFL teasers twelve and one

284
00:14:42,399 --> 00:14:45,720
and twenty one and five eighty one percent last year

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00:14:46,120 --> 00:14:49,559
and NFL and college football plays rated four percent and higher.

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00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:54,679
How about seventeen and two ninety percent get the rest

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00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:58,039
of August free by September. That's available for me or

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00:14:58,159 --> 00:14:59,960
any wager Talk handicap.

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Speaker 2: Great stuff, Ralph, It's five dollars Tuesday. You already mentioned

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00:15:05,559 --> 00:15:07,159
the special that we have up now, but tell everyone

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00:15:07,159 --> 00:15:09,120
about five dollars Tuesday and what you have up now

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here at the website.

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Speaker 4: There's nothing better. Every caper is able to load a

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00:15:14,279 --> 00:15:17,159
five dollars package. It's a great day to try out

295
00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:19,480
guys that you haven't tried. It's a great way to

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00:15:19,519 --> 00:15:21,919
read write ups. I do have a no run first

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00:15:21,919 --> 00:15:24,799
inning play available for five dollars. I also have that

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00:15:24,919 --> 00:15:29,440
free playloaded and load the first inning report daily wt

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buzz backslash.

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Speaker 2: RM Ralph Michaels. It is college football season, NFL season.

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That means we got charts, we got t toda, we

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got everything. Galer Ralph, thank you so much for joining us.

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Let's have a great Tuesday and can't wait to do

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more spots with you. All right, couple questions here. The

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00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:50,159
first comes from Adam question about Andy for yesterday's tennis

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00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:54,600
advice about Fandel I had cinner on DraftKings and he

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00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:58,679
quit down five zero. Bet was declared void and money refunded.

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00:15:59,159 --> 00:16:03,159
That's because the first set wasn't complete. The issue comes

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00:16:03,159 --> 00:16:07,240
into if the first set gets complete. So let's say

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00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:10,960
Center gets waxed six to zero, comes out, loses the

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00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:14,320
first couple games in the second set and retired. That's

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00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:17,879
void on FanDuel. That's a loss on Draft Kings. That's

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00:16:17,919 --> 00:16:21,440
the difference. It's all about whether that first set gets

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00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:27,080
gets completed. But again, please look up the rules. All

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00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:31,200
you have to do is just google DraftKings, Tennis rules retirement,

316
00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:34,679
fandual Tennis rules retirement and it will show you everything.

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00:16:34,759 --> 00:16:37,720
It takes only a few minutes. So that's what happened

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with that play yesterday. I noticed a lot of There

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was a lot of voids on that one, but mostly

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because not mostly it was because of the first set.

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So let's see. People have brought up AI in using

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00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:54,799
using charts and using chat GBT along with his charts.

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All right, I'll address using AI in the sports betting industry.

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I'll do that a little bit later. But Ralph already mentioned.

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It is five dollars Tuesdays, guys, and listen, you're throwing

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00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:07,640
money away if you're not taking advantage of five dollars Tuesday.

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00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:10,680
Every single capper has their best bet up. There's no

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00:17:10,839 --> 00:17:13,400
reason to not jump on as many as you feel

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00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:15,759
comfortable with. It's the price of a cup of coffee.

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00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:18,960
I mean, no excuses. You stack as many bets as

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00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:22,039
you want, test out new experts, try out your favorite handicapper,

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00:17:22,319 --> 00:17:25,440
Grab my best bet, grab Ralph's, grab Brian Powers coming up,

333
00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:28,119
Grab as many as you want as always bet responsibly.

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00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:31,039
We don't want a ton of our bank roll just

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00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:34,559
on Tuesday plays. But this opportunity is once a week.

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00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:38,119
That's it. So if you miss out, you know, I

337
00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:39,960
don't know what to tell you. Guys. We only run

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00:17:40,039 --> 00:17:42,519
this once a week, so make sure you're taking advantage

339
00:17:42,519 --> 00:17:45,799
of these five dollars plays, just don't don't sit on

340
00:17:45,839 --> 00:17:48,480
the sidelines with these. It's a really, really good opportunity

341
00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:50,799
to read some good write ups from some handicappers that

342
00:17:50,839 --> 00:17:52,440
you're used to or that you're not used to. So

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00:17:52,720 --> 00:17:55,119
every handicapper has here available. I know mine is up

344
00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:57,799
in Dana White Contender Series. It's going to go up

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right as soon as this show is over, because the

346
00:17:59,759 --> 00:18:01,839
line just got released that I've been waiting for so

347
00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:05,839
perfect example, every single Tuesday, my five dollars play is

348
00:18:05,880 --> 00:18:08,519
gonna be Dana White Contender Series. So you already know

349
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that that this Tuesday Susan show's over five dollars play

350
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for Contender Series. So Dan, let's go all around the

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00:18:15,559 --> 00:18:20,079
world here, let's do some free plays for everyone. I'm

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00:18:20,119 --> 00:18:21,920
gonna go to the WNBA to start off with the

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Dream at the Aces. I like the Aces over eighty

354
00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:27,240
three and a half on the team total. I think

355
00:18:27,279 --> 00:18:29,200
we're getting a little bit of a deflated number here.

356
00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:32,240
The Dream have been playing good defense, last five opponents

357
00:18:32,319 --> 00:18:36,079
under seventy nine points, but all of those offenses struggling.

358
00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:38,880
The last top offense they played, they gave up eighty

359
00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:41,440
three points, and last time they played the Aces, the

360
00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:44,039
dream gave up eighty seven points. I think this is

361
00:18:44,079 --> 00:18:46,000
a couple points too low, So give me the Aces

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00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:48,920
over eighty three and a half at home. On the

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00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:52,119
team total, we're going to the Phillies. We mentioned them earlier.

364
00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:54,079
They've been taking a lot of money. I like this play.

365
00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:56,880
Drew Martin's looking at the Phillies minus one. Phillies have

366
00:18:56,880 --> 00:19:00,720
scored twenty three runs recently. Miller come off of il

367
00:19:00,759 --> 00:19:04,119
from Mariners, gave up nineteen runs in the previous four

368
00:19:04,200 --> 00:19:07,519
starts before the injury. Shs for Philly fifth best era.

369
00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:09,960
Then we're looking at the Blue Jays at the Pirates.

370
00:19:10,079 --> 00:19:12,640
Sures are for the Jays giving up two earned runs

371
00:19:12,759 --> 00:19:17,759
or less in three straight starts. Whatever surgions from sure unbelievable.

372
00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:20,559
Keller gave up six earned runs last start, and better

373
00:19:20,599 --> 00:19:22,880
lineups have had a lot of success against them. So

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00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:25,279
we'll look at the Ages over eighty three and afteen total,

375
00:19:25,319 --> 00:19:29,279
Phillies minus one and the Blue Jays on the money line.

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00:19:29,519 --> 00:19:31,759
We're gonna bring in Brian Power. We're gonna talk some

377
00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:34,319
college football, we're gonna talk some MLB, and after that,

378
00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:39,000
I will break down every underdog on Contender series tonight.

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00:19:39,039 --> 00:19:44,000
See if I can make a case for every single underdog. So, Brian, Brian, Oh,

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00:19:44,079 --> 00:19:47,400
I love the shirt, Brian. I wore my warmine I

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00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:50,000
warmne yesterday. I see, I see you're getting ready for

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00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:51,200
the Blitz test night.

383
00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:55,200
Speaker 5: Company come yes, a good company man.

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00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:57,759
Speaker 3: And also, as I messaged Dan while I was waiting

385
00:19:57,799 --> 00:19:59,920
to come on the show, very slimming shirt, by the way,

386
00:20:00,039 --> 00:20:01,119
I think, so I look good at him.

387
00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:03,759
Speaker 5: So that's why we keep going with it. So can't

388
00:20:03,759 --> 00:20:04,160
go wrong.

389
00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:07,279
Speaker 2: All right, Well, Brian, you know what, Let's start with

390
00:20:07,319 --> 00:20:10,039
college football here and then we'll do Guardians and Diamondback.

391
00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:13,200
So we said, hey, Texas A and M and Oregon future.

392
00:20:13,279 --> 00:20:16,359
So the wind totals are kind of weird because Texas

393
00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:19,000
A and M. I see them good friends at bet

394
00:20:19,039 --> 00:20:21,119
online with Dave Mason seven and a half wins but

395
00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:24,400
way juice to the over, Oregon ten and a half wins,

396
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:27,559
but way juiced to the under. So I don't know

397
00:20:27,599 --> 00:20:28,839
how you want to talk about if you want to

398
00:20:28,839 --> 00:20:30,519
talk about the future win totals or how you're going

399
00:20:30,559 --> 00:20:32,920
to attack these teams to start the season. But let's

400
00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:35,400
start with Texas A and M. Here again seven and

401
00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:37,240
a half wins. What do you make of this team

402
00:20:37,279 --> 00:20:38,079
going into the season.

403
00:20:38,799 --> 00:20:41,480
Speaker 3: Well, as always, Andy, I'm gonna get a little creative there,

404
00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:42,960
and don't worry, We're not. I'm not going to make

405
00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:45,519
you lay a ton of juice here with these two bets,

406
00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:47,799
Texas A and M. You want to talk about Texas

407
00:20:47,839 --> 00:20:48,200
A and M.

408
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:49,119
Speaker 2: Now.

409
00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:51,319
Speaker 3: I broke both of these down on a video I

410
00:20:51,319 --> 00:20:54,200
did over the weekend here on Wadge talk to YouTube channel.

411
00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:57,440
It was five college football futures to bet before the

412
00:20:57,480 --> 00:21:01,000
season begins, and I got a little pushback on this

413
00:21:01,079 --> 00:21:03,759
an M one Andy, So I wanted to clarify a

414
00:21:03,799 --> 00:21:06,440
little bit more before I rehash some of the reasoning

415
00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:10,000
the SEC this year. Look, the SEC is probably going

416
00:21:10,039 --> 00:21:11,799
to get four teams in the College Foob Playoff. I

417
00:21:11,799 --> 00:21:13,319
don't think it's a hot take. I think most people

418
00:21:13,319 --> 00:21:15,759
would expect that. Okay, this is how I generally view

419
00:21:15,759 --> 00:21:17,799
because I didn't mention this on that video I did

420
00:21:17,839 --> 00:21:20,319
over the weekend, but this is how I generally view

421
00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:22,519
the entire SEC. I'll give you the kind of the

422
00:21:22,559 --> 00:21:24,720
real cliff cuts. There's three teams that don't have a

423
00:21:24,799 --> 00:21:28,039
chance Arkansas, Kentucky, and Mississippi State. Just stop that they're

424
00:21:28,039 --> 00:21:30,400
not going to do anything special this year. There's five

425
00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:32,039
teams that I think are going to take a step

426
00:21:32,079 --> 00:21:37,599
back relative to last season, Ole, miss Tennessee, South Carolina, Missouri,

427
00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:41,759
and Vanderbilt. There's some dark horses that I would like

428
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:44,720
to know, maybe invest in to do something special, but

429
00:21:44,759 --> 00:21:47,200
the schedules are real hard. Those teams are Oklahoma, Florida

430
00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:50,640
and Auburn. There's two legit dark horses LSU and A

431
00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:52,319
and M. I'll get to ANM in a moment, obviously.

432
00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:53,720
And then you got the three teams that are odds

433
00:21:53,759 --> 00:21:58,160
on favorite to make the college football playoff, those being Texas, Bama,

434
00:21:58,680 --> 00:21:59,960
and Georgia.

435
00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:02,720
Speaker 5: So I said a moment ago, there's probably gonna be four.

436
00:22:02,599 --> 00:22:07,200
Speaker 3: Teams from the SEC that make the college football playoffs.

437
00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:10,079
So who's gonna be the fourth? Last year it was

438
00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:11,960
Tennessee who stepped up. I said, they're going to take

439
00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:15,119
a step back too. Are we confident that all three

440
00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:19,240
odds on teams are gonna make the playoffs? Stranger things

441
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:22,640
have happened. There's question marks at quarterback with both Georgia

442
00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:26,319
and Bama. So I was really interested in the dark

443
00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:29,839
horses in the SEC, and I'm looking at this Texas

444
00:22:29,839 --> 00:22:31,640
A and M team. You mentioned the seven and a

445
00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:34,319
half win total. Well, if you don't want to bet

446
00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:36,279
A and M, if you're not confident enough that they

447
00:22:36,279 --> 00:22:38,440
can make the College FOOTBA Playoff, you can get over

448
00:22:38,519 --> 00:22:40,640
eight and a half wins at DraftKings right now plus

449
00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:44,119
one point fifty. And I really really like this bet

450
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:46,839
now I get and this is where I got the pushback.

451
00:22:47,799 --> 00:22:51,880
The Aggies have largely disappointed in recent years. Okay, this

452
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:54,279
will be the seventh straight year that they've opened the

453
00:22:54,279 --> 00:22:56,920
season ranked in the top twenty five. Only once in

454
00:22:56,920 --> 00:23:00,000
those previous six have they finished in the top one,

455
00:23:00,279 --> 00:23:02,920
and that was the COVID year of twenty twenty. Last year,

456
00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:04,799
they go eight and five in the first season for

457
00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:07,599
Mike Elko, but they were an underdog in only one

458
00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:11,200
game Andy, and that was the regular season finale against Texas,

459
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:14,160
where had they won, they would have actually gone to

460
00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:17,599
the SEC Champs SEC Championship game. So I look at

461
00:23:17,599 --> 00:23:20,720
this team's results last year. They were way better than

462
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:23,279
that eight and five record. It was a horrible spot

463
00:23:23,319 --> 00:23:25,400
that Texas game because they were coming off of four

464
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:29,480
overtime loss at Auburn the week prior, so we only

465
00:23:29,519 --> 00:23:33,039
need an improvement of one win from last year in

466
00:23:33,039 --> 00:23:35,960
the regular season to cash this bet. I'm looking at

467
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:39,319
a team that's top ten in returning experience, avoids Georgia

468
00:23:39,319 --> 00:23:42,200
and Alabama in the regular season. They do travel to

469
00:23:42,279 --> 00:23:45,680
Notre Dame LSU in Texas, Okay, but even if they

470
00:23:45,799 --> 00:23:48,720
lost all three of those games, they still have a

471
00:23:48,759 --> 00:23:50,160
chance to win. If they win all the other games,

472
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:52,440
I'll have them favored in the other nine games. So

473
00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:56,119
just handling their business would cash a bet at plus

474
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:59,000
one point fifty. Again, I think there's question marks at

475
00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:01,200
the top of the SEC. I think a lot of

476
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:03,000
teams are going to take a step back and there

477
00:24:03,079 --> 00:24:06,000
is a void for one of these dark horses to

478
00:24:06,079 --> 00:24:07,960
step up. And I think it's going to be Texas

479
00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:10,039
A and M this year. Again, I would sprinkle a

480
00:24:10,079 --> 00:24:12,279
little bit to make the playoff, but over eight and

481
00:24:12,319 --> 00:24:16,680
a half is while I would attack this on the aggies.

482
00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:21,599
Speaker 2: We get a question from justin P Do bowl games

483
00:24:21,759 --> 00:24:27,559
count in season wins for college No? No, no, Otherwise

484
00:24:27,599 --> 00:24:29,400
you would see a lot of money on Oio State.

485
00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:33,839
Speaker 5: Otherwise, I feel real. Otherwise you would see plus fifty

486
00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:34,960
next to that over eight and a half.

487
00:24:35,039 --> 00:24:35,240
Speaker 2: Yeah.

488
00:24:35,319 --> 00:24:38,039
Speaker 5: So, and for the record, I think they could.

489
00:24:38,039 --> 00:24:40,960
Speaker 3: I think there's a good chance the Aggies pulling upset

490
00:24:41,039 --> 00:24:42,799
one of those games this year. This is a team

491
00:24:42,799 --> 00:24:45,759
that was minus four in net upsets last year. That

492
00:24:45,799 --> 00:24:47,839
means the number of games they were upset as a

493
00:24:47,839 --> 00:24:49,720
favorite relative to the number of games they went outright

494
00:24:49,759 --> 00:24:51,759
as a dog. I get it that this is a

495
00:24:51,799 --> 00:24:53,680
team that has traditionally let people down. But I'm a

496
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:56,039
by low Sell high guy Andy, as many of the

497
00:24:56,039 --> 00:24:58,480
people know, they're listening right here, and I just think

498
00:24:58,519 --> 00:25:00,440
it's a great Bilo spot on it a m this

499
00:25:00,519 --> 00:25:03,279
year to not only win nine games but possibly make

500
00:25:03,279 --> 00:25:04,640
the Comfortaball playoffs.

501
00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:08,319
Speaker 2: Bill was asked just a quick question Notre Dame at

502
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:11,359
Miami opinion, no opinion, any thoughts.

503
00:25:12,079 --> 00:25:15,640
Speaker 5: I'm still breaking that game down as we speak. You know.

504
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:18,359
Speaker 3: It's you know, having all this time to break down

505
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:20,559
the week zero week one games, and it's a double

506
00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:24,119
edged sword because sometimes you can overthink things. I'll be

507
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:27,640
honest with you. Notre Dame was pretty lucky last year

508
00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:31,480
to get as far as they did. At the same time, Miami,

509
00:25:31,759 --> 00:25:33,240
I think is a team that might not be as

510
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:36,720
good as they were last year, at least early on.

511
00:25:36,799 --> 00:25:39,480
So these are not in Mario Pristaball, My god, I mean,

512
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:41,599
you get so scared late in the game what this

513
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:44,680
guy could do to set your money on fire. So

514
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:48,319
these are not, honestly Notre Dame in Miami. My struggle

515
00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:51,359
with that game as this season open for both is

516
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:53,319
I'm not really looking to bet either of those teams

517
00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:58,279
right now as we roll into the season, we need.

518
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:00,880
Speaker 2: To we need to make that list of like top

519
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:04,440
five NFL and college football coaches that you're just most

520
00:26:04,519 --> 00:26:07,400
terrified just set your money on fire at the end

521
00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:08,000
of the game.

522
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:11,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, I know you can identify this any We're breaking

523
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:13,559
down so many sports, so many games a lot of times.

524
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:14,720
Speaker 5: You know, you've got to have a.

525
00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:16,799
Speaker 3: Short memory in this business if you're a handicapper, right,

526
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:20,519
But I still remember a couple floors down here in

527
00:26:20,559 --> 00:26:22,640
the home, in the power home, sitting in my basement,

528
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:25,640
I had Georgia Tech against Miami two years ago, and

529
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:27,559
it was a wire to wire cover for Georgia Tech.

530
00:26:27,559 --> 00:26:30,960
They were getting like seventeen points and the game was

531
00:26:31,039 --> 00:26:33,039
about over and I was getting ready to tweet, well,

532
00:26:33,039 --> 00:26:34,640
it looks like a nice wire to wire win on

533
00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:37,880
Georgia Tech, and then crystabal inexplicitly. Instead of running the clock,

534
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:40,759
gott just kept running and they fumbled and Georgia Tech recovered.

535
00:26:40,799 --> 00:26:43,000
Obviously everyone remembers this game and they won it. Right

536
00:26:43,039 --> 00:26:44,319
at the end, I said, well, I guess it was

537
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:47,559
an outright win. So, yeah, that was that was a crazy.

538
00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:50,240
Speaker 2: I that is an all time I mean, that's just

539
00:26:50,279 --> 00:26:51,079
an old timer.

540
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:54,880
Speaker 5: Oh, yes, it was. Yeah, it was the first time

541
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:56,559
you did it either. You'd think if you screwed up

542
00:26:56,599 --> 00:27:00,359
like that, you would never do it again. Oh well, Mario.

543
00:27:00,079 --> 00:27:03,039
Speaker 2: Hold by gatorade. All right, let's move to uh, let's

544
00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:06,279
move to Oregon. Much bigger total here, ten and a

545
00:27:06,319 --> 00:27:09,079
half wins. How do you break down the Oregon Ducks

546
00:27:09,079 --> 00:27:09,599
for this year.

547
00:27:10,039 --> 00:27:11,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll try to be a little more brief on

548
00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:14,039
this one. So I don't want to play the win

549
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:16,599
total on Oregon. So it's it's juiced. You're right, Andy

550
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:17,920
heavy to under ten and a half.

551
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:18,680
Speaker 5: So guess what.

552
00:27:18,759 --> 00:27:20,519
Speaker 3: Let's take it a step further as well. Let's bet

553
00:27:20,519 --> 00:27:23,400
Oregon to miss the college football Playoff. Now I know

554
00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:25,319
this was the only team in the Country last year

555
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:28,759
to finish the regular season undefeated, and they got screwed.

556
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:32,799
I mean absolutely hose by the dumb way the Committee

557
00:27:32,799 --> 00:27:35,519
seated in the in the first ever twelve team playoff.

558
00:27:35,519 --> 00:27:36,160
Speaker 5: It was unfair.

559
00:27:36,519 --> 00:27:40,039
Speaker 3: The Ducks run into Ohio State obviously the quarterfinals. Ohio State, well,

560
00:27:40,039 --> 00:27:41,799
it was my biggest bet of the college football season.

561
00:27:41,839 --> 00:27:43,400
Last show is a five percent to play for me

562
00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:45,920
on New Year's Day. But you know, you look at

563
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:50,359
the Ducks this year. They lose a lot quarterback Dylan

564
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:52,640
Gabriel who's now in the NFL playing for the Cleveland Browns.

565
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:55,839
They lose their leading rusher, several top receivers, and a lot.

566
00:27:56,079 --> 00:27:59,200
I always think when you lose losing a lot along

567
00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:02,240
the offensive and defensive lines, that doesn't get the kind

568
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:04,880
of coverage that losing talent that the skill positions does,

569
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:07,759
but it is every bit is significant. I look at

570
00:28:07,799 --> 00:28:11,920
Oregon having to travel to face Penn State. I think

571
00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:14,599
there's a chance the Big Ten may not get four

572
00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:16,920
teams in the playoff this year like they did last year.

573
00:28:17,079 --> 00:28:20,079
Ohio State and Penn State they're getting it. I think

574
00:28:20,319 --> 00:28:23,480
so if what I'm doing, and again I talked about

575
00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:26,200
this on that same aforementioned video I referenced I did

576
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:26,839
over the weekend.

577
00:28:27,519 --> 00:28:28,920
Speaker 5: What I did is I looked.

578
00:28:28,799 --> 00:28:31,359
Speaker 3: At the eight teams that are currently odds on to

579
00:28:31,599 --> 00:28:35,559
make the college football playoffs nationally. I think of those eight, look,

580
00:28:35,559 --> 00:28:37,519
all eight aren't getting in. I think Oregon is the

581
00:28:37,559 --> 00:28:40,440
most likely to miss. You can get plus one forty

582
00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:43,039
five still on the Ducks to miss the playoffs. And

583
00:28:43,039 --> 00:28:45,319
a little teaser for this video I've referenced a couple

584
00:28:45,359 --> 00:28:46,839
times now, Andy, if you want to go back and

585
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:48,839
check that out here on the wager Talk YouTube channel.

586
00:28:49,279 --> 00:28:51,119
I do have a dark horse in the Big ten.

587
00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:54,000
So if Oregon's gonna miss out, who's gonna step up

588
00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:55,599
in the Big ten? You guys can all check that

589
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:57,440
video out if you already haven't. I do have a

590
00:28:57,519 --> 00:28:59,720
dark horse Big ten team I like this year that

591
00:28:59,759 --> 00:29:02,880
I think will steal the Ducks playoff spot.

592
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:08,160
Speaker 2: Nice tease, Wow, that was a professional like you got

593
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:10,359
to go to school to learn learn teases like that.

594
00:29:10,359 --> 00:29:11,400
That was very good, Brian.

595
00:29:11,519 --> 00:29:12,160
Speaker 5: I've been on the show.

596
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:14,319
Speaker 3: I've learned a thing or two. You know, you can't

597
00:29:14,359 --> 00:29:16,160
teach a dog a new tricks an old dog.

598
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:20,559
Speaker 2: Well, we're gonna talk guardians and Diamondbacks here, but real quick,

599
00:29:20,559 --> 00:29:23,519
tell her about the Blitz. One of the most exciting

600
00:29:23,599 --> 00:29:26,119
shows that we have coming up for this football season.

601
00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:28,359
So tell us about this one. What can we expect?

602
00:29:28,359 --> 00:29:29,079
When does it start?

603
00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:32,880
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm really excited about this. It's right around the corner.

604
00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 3: We've talked about it, I feel a few times here

605
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:38,680
on the show Andy. It makes its debut this Thursday,

606
00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:43,559
live one pm Eastern. Immediately following Andy laying here on

607
00:29:43,599 --> 00:29:47,319
wager Talk Today, I will be joined by Ross Benjamin

608
00:29:47,359 --> 00:29:49,240
and Ralph Michaels. So you just saw in the previous

609
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:52,440
segment here eRx, we're gonna talk. It's a shortcart a

610
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:54,480
week zero, so you're gonna be able to trust me.

611
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:57,039
We're gonna go over every game. And here's the thing.

612
00:29:57,279 --> 00:30:00,920
We'll be taking your questions live as we go on.

613
00:30:01,039 --> 00:30:04,880
So if you've got something specific you want to ask, side, total, whatever,

614
00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:08,039
come in watch it live, ask us. We will answer

615
00:30:08,039 --> 00:30:11,079
it between Ross, Ralph and myself and that will be

616
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:15,160
every Thursday live at one pm Eastern throughout the season.

617
00:30:15,319 --> 00:30:19,759
Really looking forward to hosting the show each and every Thursday.

618
00:30:20,839 --> 00:30:24,799
Speaker 2: All right, let's talk Guardians and the Diamondbacks. We got

619
00:30:24,839 --> 00:30:29,440
Rodriguez the Diamondbacks before the Guardians. What's your take on

620
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:32,200
this MLB game today? It looks like Diamondbacks a little

621
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:33,680
bit of a favorite over under eight and a half.

622
00:30:34,759 --> 00:30:37,079
Speaker 3: Yeah, So, over the course of the second half of

623
00:30:37,119 --> 00:30:40,559
the season, Andy, I'm just gonna, you know, throw my

624
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:42,440
cards on the table here. I don't think there's been

625
00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:44,839
a luckier starting pitcher in terms of wins and losses

626
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:48,039
than Cleveland's Tanner Byby. The Guardians are seven to zero

627
00:30:48,039 --> 00:30:51,319
in his last seven starts. Okay, but that is despite

628
00:30:51,319 --> 00:30:53,759
the fact that Bibby's allowed four or more runs in

629
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:56,519
six of those last seven starts, including each of the

630
00:30:56,599 --> 00:30:59,920
last five. He has an ERA of six since July second.

631
00:31:00,079 --> 00:31:02,599
So how has the team been winning with Bibby pitching

632
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:06,599
so poorly? Well, inexplicably, what has happened is the Guardians

633
00:31:06,640 --> 00:31:08,880
have scored a total of fifty six runs in those

634
00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:12,119
last seven Byby starts, or an average of eight per game.

635
00:31:12,559 --> 00:31:16,279
And what makes that crazy, guys, is the Guardians are

636
00:31:16,319 --> 00:31:18,279
not a good offensive team. As a matter of fact,

637
00:31:18,279 --> 00:31:21,680
they ranked bottom five for the year in runs per game.

638
00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:24,640
So I don't think these results are sustainable for Bibby.

639
00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:27,839
If he continues to pitch this way, the Cleveland Guardians

640
00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:31,119
are not going to continue just randomly scoring eight runs

641
00:31:31,119 --> 00:31:33,079
per game for the same pitcher, and I think it's

642
00:31:33,119 --> 00:31:36,920
pretty likely tonight that Bibby struggles continue facing an Arizona

643
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:39,359
team that is top six in all of baseball in

644
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:42,200
runs per game for the season. Now, I know it's

645
00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:43,680
not a great night at the plate last night for

646
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:46,160
the Dbacks. They lose three to one. That was mainly

647
00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:47,799
owed to the fact they were one for eight with

648
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:50,240
runners in scoring position. They actually out hit the Guardians

649
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:52,160
for the game, guys, but just couldn't get it done

650
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:55,160
when it mattered most in the clutch. I know that

651
00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:57,640
the Guardians have been getting it have been a profitable

652
00:31:57,640 --> 00:31:59,720
team to back the last few weeks, but I'm still

653
00:31:59,720 --> 00:32:03,079
not a Look, they're my hometown team. Okay, they played

654
00:32:03,079 --> 00:32:05,680
twenty minutes up the road on I seventy seven. I've

655
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:08,279
watched this team play in person many times. I don't

656
00:32:08,279 --> 00:32:10,880
buy them. They're not going to make the playoffs instead

657
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:12,920
of the Yankees Andy. This is a team with a

658
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:15,599
minus thirty two run differential for the season. And what's

659
00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:18,559
even more crazy about the recent surge is they were

660
00:32:18,599 --> 00:32:22,039
sellers at the trade deadline and their closer got suspended.

661
00:32:22,319 --> 00:32:25,359
So it's really inexplicable what they've done over these last

662
00:32:25,359 --> 00:32:28,079
two to three weeks. And then the final component to

663
00:32:28,119 --> 00:32:30,319
the handicap here that you need to know, guys, d

664
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:34,079
back starter and Wardo Rodriguez seven to zero lifetime versus Cleveland.

665
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:37,119
I know a majority of those starts were twenty twenty

666
00:32:37,119 --> 00:32:39,920
three and before, but he's a left eat Cleveland's bottom

667
00:32:40,359 --> 00:32:46,240
six against lefties in WRC plus, and Rodriguez his advanced

668
00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:48,759
stats are a lot better than his traditional stats is

669
00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:51,599
expected ERA a full run lower than his actual ERA.

670
00:32:52,279 --> 00:32:53,839
He's off his best start of the season. I know

671
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:56,599
it was against Colorado, but it was in Colorado where

672
00:32:56,599 --> 00:32:59,559
the Rockies are at least respectable offensively, the Rockies are

673
00:32:59,559 --> 00:33:00,759
a better off. It's a team at home, and then

674
00:33:00,799 --> 00:33:04,319
Cleveland is overall put it all together. I like the

675
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:07,480
Arizona Diamondbacks to get the job done today.

676
00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:11,119
Speaker 2: You think the other starting pitchers for the for the

677
00:33:11,119 --> 00:33:16,680
Guardians are just like, yeah, where where looking at the hitters, like,

678
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:20,000
are you guys serious? Could you save some right there?

679
00:33:20,559 --> 00:33:22,640
Speaker 3: I feel that every Guardians game is like last night

680
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:24,720
three to one is the final, except that Tanner Bidy

681
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:26,680
pitches is the last game as a matter of fact.

682
00:33:27,039 --> 00:33:29,240
And again we're always transparent on the program. I had

683
00:33:29,279 --> 00:33:31,640
Miami against the Guardians last game. They went up three

684
00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:34,640
to nothing in the top of the first Miami did.

685
00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:37,680
I'm like, all right, it's not like Cleveland's guy, I said,

686
00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:39,119
all we need is some run. It's not like Cleveland

687
00:33:39,119 --> 00:33:41,559
can keep doing this for about well they did, unfortunately,

688
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:45,079
but they haven't done much. I'm telling you it's not sustainable.

689
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:48,440
You gotta put a side recency bias sometimes, guys, and

690
00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:51,200
look at the big picture. I just think Tanner Biby,

691
00:33:51,279 --> 00:33:52,720
the fact that he's seven to zero and over his

692
00:33:52,799 --> 00:33:55,039
last seven starts is about as misleading as anything in

693
00:33:55,079 --> 00:33:56,079
baseball over.

694
00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:56,799
Speaker 5: The last two months.

695
00:33:57,599 --> 00:34:00,319
Speaker 2: Amazing, amazing. Brian Powart's five Dollars Tuesday. Hey, what do

696
00:34:00,319 --> 00:34:01,720
you have up on five dollars Tuesday?

697
00:34:02,279 --> 00:34:04,480
Speaker 3: Yes, I have a Well, I should also mention that

698
00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:06,400
Arizona play I just gave you I liked it. So

699
00:34:06,559 --> 00:34:08,840
I thought that breakdown was so good I've made it

700
00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:10,960
a four percent best bet. Actually it was already a

701
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:13,320
four percent best bet before I the breakdown. So you

702
00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:16,119
got that for free, and then I have another four

703
00:34:16,159 --> 00:34:19,079
percent best bet up that is just five dollars. So

704
00:34:19,199 --> 00:34:21,559
for only five dollars today, obviously you get one for

705
00:34:21,639 --> 00:34:23,559
free and then another one for just five dollars. Is

706
00:34:23,559 --> 00:34:25,800
a pretty good deal. Get two four percent best bets

707
00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:28,960
for just five dollars total up on my page wt

708
00:34:29,079 --> 00:34:32,519
Dot Buzz slash BP if you want to read if

709
00:34:32,559 --> 00:34:34,840
for some reason you wanted to go back and read

710
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:37,199
some of the analysis that Arizona plays up there. But

711
00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:40,559
the another four percent best bet again just five dollars,

712
00:34:40,559 --> 00:34:42,920
like we've all been talking about. I also have a

713
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:46,400
college football best bet up as well for Week one

714
00:34:46,559 --> 00:34:48,119
if you want to beat what I think is going

715
00:34:48,159 --> 00:34:50,360
to line a line move that I think.

716
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:53,519
Speaker 2: Is going to happen. Awesome, great stuff. Brian can't wait

717
00:34:53,519 --> 00:34:56,480
for the Blitz. A lot of good college football content

718
00:34:56,559 --> 00:34:58,559
coming your way, brought to you by Brian Power and

719
00:34:58,639 --> 00:35:00,920
a company. Thank you, Brian, good luck on your five

720
00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:03,960
dollars play. We're gonna do Dane White Contender series. I

721
00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:05,960
know there was a there was a thing about AI,

722
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:09,480
and I'm always interested in talking about AI, especially in

723
00:35:09,519 --> 00:35:12,119
the certain industries. We have to be real careful with

724
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:17,320
AI with the content. It works great when you're writing

725
00:35:17,440 --> 00:35:19,360
articles or when you're writing write ups, but you got

726
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:23,320
to be really careful with predictions and stats in the past.

727
00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:27,199
So someone brought up, like, is Ralph using Chad GBT

728
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:29,280
on the charts? It would be really really hard to

729
00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:33,159
do that because the stats, sadly coming from AI are

730
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:35,960
not that dependable. Maybe they will be at some point,

731
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:38,599
but right now, I've tried to find stats and they

732
00:35:38,639 --> 00:35:41,800
are so far off sometimes and it's really really dangerous.

733
00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:45,039
So AI is great for giving us analytics on YouTube videos.

734
00:35:45,039 --> 00:35:47,480
It's it's great for telling us, hey, what thumbnails work

735
00:35:47,519 --> 00:35:50,559
with thumbnails don't. It's great for you know, having an

736
00:35:50,599 --> 00:35:53,440
article and fixing up grammar or making things shorter, making

737
00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:56,639
things longer. But as far as predictions and taking stats

738
00:35:56,639 --> 00:36:00,840
from the past, it just the technology just isn't quite

739
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:04,320
there just yet. So apparently it's perfect for people in

740
00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:08,239
college writing papers. As far as sports stats, not there yet.

741
00:36:08,400 --> 00:36:11,239
All right, let's talk Dana White Contender series before we

742
00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:14,039
get out of here, and Dan nice work on this

743
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:18,719
graphic Dana White Contender Series dogs. I like that, all right?

744
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:19,960
Speaker 5: So here you would like that?

745
00:36:20,159 --> 00:36:20,440
Speaker 1: Yeah?

746
00:36:20,559 --> 00:36:21,000
Speaker 5: Beautiful?

747
00:36:21,039 --> 00:36:23,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, very very good. I am a sucker for a

748
00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:26,360
nice graphic. All right, So what I'm gonna do here

749
00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:28,239
is I'm going to try and make the case for

750
00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:32,360
all of the underdogs on Contender Series tonight. We will

751
00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:36,559
start with the main event. Uh Delano is a huge,

752
00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:40,599
huge favorite against Exposito. I can make the case for this.

753
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:44,679
Exposito is strong, he's stocky, and he's got takedowns. Dolano's

754
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:47,960
gonna be the much more dynamic striker we saw last week.

755
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:49,679
If you can get takedowns and hold guys down, you

756
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:51,440
may not get a contract, but you can win a fight.

757
00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:54,840
This minus six twenty five is very scary. It's also

758
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:57,960
scary that these guys at Face Offs Dan, they shook

759
00:36:57,960 --> 00:36:59,840
hands and they said, let's make this fight of the night,

760
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:03,760
which means firefight, which means like going for the kill here.

761
00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:07,440
So plus four fifty five on Exposito, look for takedowns,

762
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:10,519
look for a crazy fight there. Brandon Holmes and Cam Roast,

763
00:37:10,599 --> 00:37:12,920
and I can absolutely make the case for Roaston. He's

764
00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:15,800
like eight inches taller than Holmes. Again, Roaston can take

765
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:18,239
guys down. Holmes is going to be your more dynamic

766
00:37:18,280 --> 00:37:21,880
stro striker. But Roaston has been here before. He is

767
00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:24,199
slow on the feet, but he can work ground game.

768
00:37:24,599 --> 00:37:26,239
So if Roston wins, it's going to be by the

769
00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:30,559
ground game. Sai Kumar against Louis Lee Scott. Sai Kumark

770
00:37:30,679 --> 00:37:34,320
is coming from India. He's terrible. He was lucky to

771
00:37:34,360 --> 00:37:38,119
win his last fight. Lewis Lee Scott was going to

772
00:37:38,159 --> 00:37:41,079
be the big runaway favorite and then Scott missed. Wait

773
00:37:41,559 --> 00:37:43,719
and he looked like someone stole his lunch money at

774
00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:45,960
face offs, he looks so deflated. So if he comes

775
00:37:46,000 --> 00:37:49,199
out bummed, that's how say Kumar can win. But as

776
00:37:49,199 --> 00:37:51,880
far as skill level, it's Lewis Lee Scott and it's

777
00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:56,760
not even close. Josh Hockett and Uriel they want Hackett

778
00:37:56,760 --> 00:37:59,480
to win this. Hackett is an insane wrestler. This guy

779
00:37:59,519 --> 00:38:01,440
I believe played for the forty nine ers for a

780
00:38:01,440 --> 00:38:05,000
little bit. Uriol is a good striker, but Hackett should

781
00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:07,679
get this to the ground the way Uriol wins as

782
00:38:07,679 --> 00:38:09,800
a flash knockout in the first and he can do it.

783
00:38:10,039 --> 00:38:12,400
But Hackett has said why would I strike? Why why

784
00:38:12,440 --> 00:38:15,320
would I even bother stating and striking? And then Ramiro

785
00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:17,960
Himan is versus Tommy Quozy. If you listened yesterday him

786
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:19,639
and Is is the guy that fought three times in

787
00:38:19,679 --> 00:38:23,719
one night at a tournament. This guy is a dog, Dan,

788
00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:27,760
I cannot make a case for this underdog. I absolutely

789
00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:30,920
cannot make a case. Do you know why? This man

790
00:38:31,199 --> 00:38:33,960
had the epitome of I'm happy to be here? He

791
00:38:34,119 --> 00:38:36,159
showed up at face offs, and Dan, you know what

792
00:38:36,199 --> 00:38:38,519
happens at face offs? They get in each other's face. Right,

793
00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:42,199
This man brought his camera and asked to take a

794
00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:50,079
selfie with his opponent. No, never go, no. Himan Is

795
00:38:50,079 --> 00:38:52,280
is looking at him like, bro, you are my meal

796
00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:56,880
ticket into the UFC and I'm eating tonight. This is

797
00:38:56,920 --> 00:38:59,079
the underdog. I can't make a case. I thought Quoz

798
00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:01,920
was gonna be bigger. He wasn't. Heaven Is as big

799
00:39:01,960 --> 00:39:04,840
aer heaven As has had about a year off to heal.

800
00:39:05,159 --> 00:39:07,320
So this is the one hundred dog. I can't really

801
00:39:07,360 --> 00:39:09,920
make the case, which means that he's probably gonna win

802
00:39:10,159 --> 00:39:13,639
by some insane some insane finish, but whatever. So that's

803
00:39:13,639 --> 00:39:16,159
gonna be your underdog. The full Data White Contender Series

804
00:39:16,159 --> 00:39:18,320
breakdown is gonna go up on the wager Talk YouTube

805
00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:20,679
channel here this afternoon. I wanted to make sure that

806
00:39:20,679 --> 00:39:23,559
that fight was still on with Louis Scott who missed weight,

807
00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:27,400
and my five dollars play is going up right this second,

808
00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:29,840
now that I have the final props and everything out.

809
00:39:29,920 --> 00:39:32,679
So every Tuesday, my five dollars play is gonna be

810
00:39:32,760 --> 00:39:35,840
data White Contender series. Thank you so much, guys, hit

811
00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:37,639
the like button. A lot of great information, a lot

812
00:39:37,679 --> 00:39:39,679
of great free plays. Please hit the like button just

813
00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:43,079
a little token of appreciation to show us that you

814
00:39:43,159 --> 00:39:45,440
like what we're doing here. Make sure you subscribe to

815
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:47,000
the channel and hit that bell. That way you get

816
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:50,119
notified whenever our shows go live, shows like wager Talk Today,

817
00:39:50,159 --> 00:39:52,760
shows like the Blitz that's coming up in any other

818
00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:56,559
individual game breakdown channel. It's five dollars Tuesday. Make sure

819
00:39:56,679 --> 00:39:59,000
you grab as many plays as you feel comfortable with.

820
00:39:59,239 --> 00:40:02,199
Take advantage of fit favorite handicapper, take advantage of handicappers

821
00:40:02,239 --> 00:40:05,440
that you haven't tried out before. Let's make today a big,

822
00:40:05,599 --> 00:40:08,360
big Tuesday. Thanks so much for joining us. Don't forget

823
00:40:08,519 --> 00:40:11,039
same time, same place tomorrow here on the wager Talk

824
00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:13,239
YouTube channel. We're going to be doing it again. Good

825
00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:15,440
luck on all your plays tonight, and we'll see you tomorrow.

826
00:40:15,519 --> 00:40:15,880
Take care