Speaker 1: You're lie.
Speaker 2: Welcome everyone to the best sports betting show on the planet.
This is wager Talk Today. I am your host, Andy Lang.
It is five dollars Tuesday. We're gonna give you the
blueprint to attack college football, NFL preseason, and MLB. If
you're not following the trends, not following the steam, you're
already behind. We're gonna get you up to speed. The
show is where you get the sharp perspective, the right angles,
and the plays that really move the needle. Ralph Michaels
is gonna join us. We're gonna talk Fresno State and Kansas.
We're also gonna talk Steelers and the Panthers, NFL preseason.
Brian Power is gonna join us, talk Guardians and the Diamondbacks.
Then we're gonna talk a little Texas, A and M
and Oregon futures here, maybe some season win totals, maybe
just how we want to bet them throughout the season,
or at least to start the season. So don't forget
to hit the like button. Subscribe to the wager Talk
YouTube channel. At the end of the show, I will
do Dana White Contender series quick little breakdown. I'll try
and make a case for every underdog on the card,
so stay tuned for that. Let's do a quick steam report.
Gianni is recording for Contender Series with UFC, so he's
not here, so let's start in NFL preseason. Not a
ton of movement. Carolina has taken a little bit of money.
We're gonna get Ralph breaking down that, but not a
ton of movement there. The biggest movement by far, New
England started off at minus two and a half. They
are to minus six and a half, so blasting through
key numbers. Also some movement on the over on that one.
The New York Jets opened up at half. They've moved
up to three against Dan's Philadelphia Eagles. The Jets have
looked truly horrendous in preseason, so my guess is this
line is saying they need to get some of their
stuff right. We talked a little bit about the Falcons
being faded, but money has come back in on the
Falcons state even after we talked about it yesterday. So
other than that, I don't see a whole lot of
movement for NFL preseason. Some of the total I don't
see totals yet going over forty, so it looks like
these totals are still coming in under forty. We saw
a lot of undersind with that regression back to the mean.
Going to WNBA, I don't see a lot. New York
has taken a little bit. They went from minus one
to minus three. If you're betting the Chicago sky game,
check the injury report. Angel Reese has been upgraded to
questionable instead of doubtful. That's a big, big deal with
this line for the Seattle. Seattle's minus eleven and a
half in the Chicago Sky's team is much much better
with Angel Reese in the lineup on that. Not a
whole lot of steam in WNBA, and we moved to MLB.
The only really big line, big move I see is
this monster number on the Dodgers. They opened at minus
two to sixty five. I'm seeing minus three hundred over
at a book, and looks like there's some under money
coming in on this Houston Detroit game. All you Detroit
Tigers fans and Happy School Day, Everyboddy come in on
Houston and there's a little bit of money come in
on the over. So I'm not sure what they're seeing
with Schooball and Brown going, but they're not liking the
Detroit Tigers today than that, a whole lot of movement
of note, I guess the only other one. There's a
lot of money's come in on the money line on
Philly and we're gonna go over Philly in all around
the world. So that's gonna be your steam report. Let's
jump to Ralph Michaels. We got to talk a little football.
We have to talk college football and NFL preseason. Ralph,
how are you, sir? How was your weekend?
Speaker 3: Brother?
Speaker 2: Happy Tuesday to you.
Speaker 4: Hell Andy, it's been months since I've been on Wager
Talk today. Happy to be back now that football started.
You know, just doing the no run first inning in
the summer is his has kept me off the show.
Speaker 1: But excited looking forward.
Speaker 4: We'll bring back the charts next week, bringing up a
making you a better better each week on the segment.
So so excited for the football season to start.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well let's start with you know, let's start Fresno
State in Kansas, and you know both teams do have
some returning players here. I know Warner is going to
be back for Kansas. This is Kurt Warnerson, I believe,
walk us through this game. Tell us everything you know
about these teams, who's coming back, what's been the changes,
and what do you expect? Kansas pretty big favorite in
this one.
Speaker 4: Well, Andy, when you're sitting at a bar this week,
ask them which game matches up a pair of national
championship coaches?
Speaker 1: Well, guess what it's.
Speaker 4: This game Fresno State and Kansas played Saturday, August twenty third,
six thirty pm on Fox. Matt Ens takes over Fresno State.
He was at North Dakota State for five years. His
record was sixty to eleven and he was a two
time national champion at North Dakota State. He did actually
leave two years ago. He was the USC linebacker coach
last year. But this is a qualified head coach that
knows how to get his team to win on the
flip side. While he hasn't had that same type of success,
Let's remember that Lance Leopold was a sixth time national
championship at D three Wisconsin Whitewater. So two coaches coming
up through the ranks. Now have these teams Kansas off
a five and seven season. You just had the team switched.
Before Kansas does return their quarterback, that is Jalen Daniels, listen,
he's mobile, he can get some first downs, but hopefully
he's matured to bed fifty seven percent with a fourteen
to twelve ratio last year is not what you expect
from a multi year starting quarterback. They lost their top
six receivers, did Kansas, and they have three new offensive
linemen starting overall. Off that five and seven season, they
returned ten starters and their incoming talent was number sixty one.
Fresno State had him off here. We thought we were
expecting a lot of them. A couple of years ago
they had success. Remember they had a coaching issue and
he had a step down in the spring, so they
had a reset and bring in a new coach for
last year. Now they hire another new coach. That concerns
me long term. But in this quick instance you mentioned
they bring an EJ.
Speaker 1: Warner.
Speaker 4: He is a transfer. He is the son of Hall
of Famer Kurt. He had eleven starts at Tempo a
couple of years ago, ten or eleven starts at Rice
last year, and I did like his maturation process with
the Owls starting last season. Again, I make this line fifteen,
but early in the year, all I do is put
down my power rating numbers you know where I think
they should be. But early in the year I don't
use my power rating numbers at all. I am not
at everyone's camp. Yes, I can read what the media
tries to tell us, but again, until I actually see
a team play, I won't start using their power ratings
completely to weeks two.
Speaker 1: Three, or four.
Speaker 4: For those I do want to say this, Kansas has
won their last three openers by forty five, thirty one,
and forty six points. Now well that sales and depressive.
All three are against FCSFO and last year they didn't
even cover. They were a forty seven point favorite. I
look at Kansas over the last two years all and
four against the spread as a double digit favorite.
Speaker 1: They're not one to extend the lead overall.
Speaker 4: When I look at college football teams playing their season
opener as a favorite of seven or more the last
two years, they are only forty five point two percent,
And if it's a lower total and you're a favorite
of seven or more, it is actually forty two point
three percent against the spread the last two seasons.
Speaker 1: Kansas will run the ball more. Fresno State will run
the ball more.
Speaker 4: In this case, I lean Fresno I think he can
get the job done, keep this game lower scoring. But
my best bet for the show under fifty one Jayhawks
and Bulldogs Saturday night.
Speaker 2: Do you expect some of these teams? I'm not necessarily
meaning these two teams, but are there some teams that
you're like, oh, they've got returning coaches and quarterbacks, their
offenses are going to be a lot more clicking than
some of these other teams. Or there's some teams you're
going way, way, way too many moving parts here. We're
looking at unders because you brought up a you know,
you brought up a good point about about looking at
this under in this game. So are there teams that
you're looking at situationally with over and unders in week one,
trying to work out the kinks, or maybe they have continuity?
Speaker 1: Well, Andy, I'll be until three years ago.
Speaker 4: I used to be ninety nine percent set at the
start of college football season. But with the transfers now,
and you know, with as many people moving in and
out and these freshmen coming in and playing immediately, I
try not to say this team is going to be
this much better. I have an idea they are. I
give them an up barrow. I wait to see what happens.
But I've learned this There's teams that I thought were
going to be horrible, and coaches were magnificent melding in
their transfers to have positive teams. So I basically it's
eye test what I read and what I break down
on the roster the first few weeks, and then after that,
I don't even worry how many starters they had. I
don't worry how many transfers they have. It's all eye
tests for me. Week three and on.
Speaker 2: Let's move to the NFL preseason Steelers and the Panthers. Admittedly,
these are two teams I have not really followed that
much have I mean, obviously we know Aaron Rodgers and
we know a little bit about the Panthers, but I
feel like the Panthers kind of flying under the radar
here a little bit. I have high hope for the
Panthers in the regular season. I think they're going to
surprise some people. But for this preseason game, we got
Pittsburgh nine is four and a half over under, just
a really low thirty six and a half. What do
you expect in this game?
Speaker 4: Well, you had mentioned week zero in Week one preseason
over unders went fourteen and three. Now, while they fell
back a little bit last week, they still went eight
and five. So that means through Week two, NFL preseason
games are twenty and eight over under seventy one point
four percent to the under. So I actually think this
line should be a few points higher, but because of
those results, they didn't have to drop it as much
as they should. That's where I think the value is.
By the way, Andy, the twenty eight teams that have
won preseason games this year, all twenty eight have covered.
So if you like an underdog, hey, perhaps i'll steal
a VR line sprinkle some of that on the money line. Obviously,
the games that tied the favorites lost, but outright winners
have all covered the game, be it favorites or dogs.
You look at Carolina, they haven't shown much this preseason.
Their offense averaging two hundred and seventy yards per game
that is number thirty one. Their defense has play well,
they're only allowing four point three eight yards per play
that is number seven. Pittsburgh's offense has had some success.
Their number eight no offense, and they're a number eleven
in defense. So Carolina that comes into this game minus
eighty yards per game Pittsburgh plus fifty two. Now we
know if a team wants to look good in the preseason,
you can. So what are these two teams gonna do
this week? Well, I expect them to do much what
they did last week. Obviously we don't see Rogers for
Pittsburgh at all. Rudolph played three series, Skyler Thompson played
five series, and Woodside finished up the game. Remember Woodside
came in and he only signed on August seventh. So
on the back end of the Pittsburgh you have a
very weak quarterback rotation. Last week, the Steelers quarterbacks combined
for three I in t's. That's why they lost to
Tampa Bay. Bryce Young had two attempts last week, Dalton
had four attempts, and Plumber had fourteen attempts. The thing
that jumps out to me the Carolina Panthers only ran
forty three plays on offense last year. All he wants
to do is line up, get this game done. Look
for a few things. Can alis one in four over under. Now,
Tomlin was an elite preseason coach. He went eighteen and
four straight up from twenty seventeen to twenty twenty three.
Last year zero to three failed to cover by twenty
eight points per game. So what are we getting this year?
This year they're won and one. They won the opener.
They lost last week to Tampa Bay with those three turnovers,
So it seems he's sort of going back to where
he was wanting to win the preseason, and this quote
impressed me. We came out of here and we got
to work immediately on Carolina this afternoon. We're working on
a short week. We just transitioned quickly moving to the
Panthers a good deal of energy. It's important not to
waste days and transition being back in this environment, We've
got a lot of work to do. We're working and
working with urgency.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 4: After his practice today, he's going to release his quarterback rotations,
so if it's favorable, I may be leaning with Pittsburgh here,
but I can't give out that opinion until I know
the rotations. But clearly I do like the under thirty
five and a half. You said it's low. I think
it should be lower. Under best bet Steelers Panthers.
Speaker 2: I'll tell you, Ralph, nothing is more exciting than betting
an under thirty six and a half in the NFL preseason.
You gotta be a maniac to watch NFL preseason and
then be excited for the under thirty six and a half.
Oh man, you know what one.
Speaker 4: Thing that is scary I do tell you this, Andy,
is that you see many small pick sixes in the
preseason than you do the regular season. So there are
times where you have those backup quarterbacks, but if they're
slinging the ball around, you can run into trouble in
those situations.
Speaker 2: I've done decent on some of the ALT team total overs,
and one of them we cashed on a pick six.
It was the first half easy cash because you know
there was a pick six. We had the Commanders last
night going up against the terrible Bengals defense, and so yeah,
so there are there are there are some interesting values
in those, but yeah, under thirty six that NFL preseason, Ralph.
Do you have a free play up on your Fear
and nerfee? Yes?
Speaker 4: Always, every day, Andy. My free plays are on an
eight and one run. I have a free play every day,
Nurfy free Play. I do a Nurfy video every day,
so check it out on TikTok or YouTube tv. That
every day Monday through Friday, we go through streaks, we
go through the starters, go through making you a better better,
and give you that free play. So check it out
WT Dot buzzbackslash RM and remember you buy September. Get
the rest of August for free last year in college
football number two at wager Talk behind the red Hot
Ross Benjamin my NFL My NFL teasers twelve and one
and twenty one and five eighty one percent last year
and NFL and college football plays rated four percent and higher.
How about seventeen and two ninety percent get the rest
of August free by September. That's available for me or
any wager Talk handicap.
Speaker 2: Great stuff, Ralph, It's five dollars Tuesday. You already mentioned
the special that we have up now, but tell everyone
about five dollars Tuesday and what you have up now
here at the website.
Speaker 4: There's nothing better. Every caper is able to load a
five dollars package. It's a great day to try out
guys that you haven't tried. It's a great way to
read write ups. I do have a no run first
inning play available for five dollars. I also have that
free playloaded and load the first inning report daily wt
buzz backslash.
Speaker 2: RM Ralph Michaels. It is college football season, NFL season.
That means we got charts, we got t toda, we
got everything. Galer Ralph, thank you so much for joining us.
Let's have a great Tuesday and can't wait to do
more spots with you. All right, couple questions here. The
first comes from Adam question about Andy for yesterday's tennis
advice about Fandel I had cinner on DraftKings and he
quit down five zero. Bet was declared void and money refunded.
That's because the first set wasn't complete. The issue comes
into if the first set gets complete. So let's say
Center gets waxed six to zero, comes out, loses the
first couple games in the second set and retired. That's
void on FanDuel. That's a loss on Draft Kings. That's
the difference. It's all about whether that first set gets
gets completed. But again, please look up the rules. All
you have to do is just google DraftKings, Tennis rules retirement,
fandual Tennis rules retirement and it will show you everything.
It takes only a few minutes. So that's what happened
with that play yesterday. I noticed a lot of There
was a lot of voids on that one, but mostly
because not mostly it was because of the first set.
So let's see. People have brought up AI in using
using charts and using chat GBT along with his charts.
All right, I'll address using AI in the sports betting industry.
I'll do that a little bit later. But Ralph already mentioned.
It is five dollars Tuesdays, guys, and listen, you're throwing
money away if you're not taking advantage of five dollars Tuesday.
Every single capper has their best bet up. There's no
reason to not jump on as many as you feel
comfortable with. It's the price of a cup of coffee.
I mean, no excuses. You stack as many bets as
you want, test out new experts, try out your favorite handicapper,
Grab my best bet, grab Ralph's, grab Brian Powers coming up,
Grab as many as you want as always bet responsibly.
We don't want a ton of our bank roll just
on Tuesday plays. But this opportunity is once a week.
That's it. So if you miss out, you know, I
don't know what to tell you. Guys. We only run
this once a week, so make sure you're taking advantage
of these five dollars plays, just don't don't sit on
the sidelines with these. It's a really, really good opportunity
to read some good write ups from some handicappers that
you're used to or that you're not used to. So
every handicapper has here available. I know mine is up
in Dana White Contender Series. It's going to go up
right as soon as this show is over, because the
line just got released that I've been waiting for so
perfect example, every single Tuesday, my five dollars play is
gonna be Dana White Contender Series. So you already know
that that this Tuesday Susan show's over five dollars play
for Contender Series. So Dan, let's go all around the
world here, let's do some free plays for everyone. I'm
gonna go to the WNBA to start off with the
Dream at the Aces. I like the Aces over eighty
three and a half on the team total. I think
we're getting a little bit of a deflated number here.
The Dream have been playing good defense, last five opponents
under seventy nine points, but all of those offenses struggling.
The last top offense they played, they gave up eighty
three points, and last time they played the Aces, the
dream gave up eighty seven points. I think this is
a couple points too low, So give me the Aces
over eighty three and a half at home. On the
team total, we're going to the Phillies. We mentioned them earlier.
They've been taking a lot of money. I like this play.
Drew Martin's looking at the Phillies minus one. Phillies have
scored twenty three runs recently. Miller come off of il
from Mariners, gave up nineteen runs in the previous four
starts before the injury. Shs for Philly fifth best era.
Then we're looking at the Blue Jays at the Pirates.
Sures are for the Jays giving up two earned runs
or less in three straight starts. Whatever surgions from sure unbelievable.
Keller gave up six earned runs last start, and better
lineups have had a lot of success against them. So
we'll look at the Ages over eighty three and afteen total,
Phillies minus one and the Blue Jays on the money line.
We're gonna bring in Brian Power. We're gonna talk some
college football, we're gonna talk some MLB, and after that,
I will break down every underdog on Contender series tonight.
See if I can make a case for every single underdog. So, Brian, Brian, Oh,
I love the shirt, Brian. I wore my warmine I
warmne yesterday. I see, I see you're getting ready for
the Blitz test night.
Speaker 5: Company come yes, a good company man.
Speaker 3: And also, as I messaged Dan while I was waiting
to come on the show, very slimming shirt, by the way,
I think, so I look good at him.
Speaker 5: So that's why we keep going with it. So can't
go wrong.
Speaker 2: All right, Well, Brian, you know what, Let's start with
college football here and then we'll do Guardians and Diamondback.
So we said, hey, Texas A and M and Oregon future.
So the wind totals are kind of weird because Texas
A and M. I see them good friends at bet
online with Dave Mason seven and a half wins but
way juice to the over, Oregon ten and a half wins,
but way juiced to the under. So I don't know
how you want to talk about if you want to
talk about the future win totals or how you're going
to attack these teams to start the season. But let's
start with Texas A and M. Here again seven and
a half wins. What do you make of this team
going into the season.
Speaker 3: Well, as always, Andy, I'm gonna get a little creative there,
and don't worry, We're not. I'm not going to make
you lay a ton of juice here with these two bets,
Texas A and M. You want to talk about Texas
A and M.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 3: I broke both of these down on a video I
did over the weekend here on Wadge talk to YouTube channel.
It was five college football futures to bet before the
season begins, and I got a little pushback on this
an M one Andy, So I wanted to clarify a
little bit more before I rehash some of the reasoning
the SEC this year. Look, the SEC is probably going
to get four teams in the College Foob Playoff. I
don't think it's a hot take. I think most people
would expect that. Okay, this is how I generally view
because I didn't mention this on that video I did
over the weekend, but this is how I generally view
the entire SEC. I'll give you the kind of the
real cliff cuts. There's three teams that don't have a
chance Arkansas, Kentucky, and Mississippi State. Just stop that they're
not going to do anything special this year. There's five
teams that I think are going to take a step
back relative to last season, Ole, miss Tennessee, South Carolina, Missouri,
and Vanderbilt. There's some dark horses that I would like
to know, maybe invest in to do something special, but
the schedules are real hard. Those teams are Oklahoma, Florida
and Auburn. There's two legit dark horses LSU and A
and M. I'll get to ANM in a moment, obviously.
And then you got the three teams that are odds
on favorite to make the college football playoff, those being Texas, Bama,
and Georgia.
Speaker 5: So I said a moment ago, there's probably gonna be four.
Speaker 3: Teams from the SEC that make the college football playoffs.
So who's gonna be the fourth? Last year it was
Tennessee who stepped up. I said, they're going to take
a step back too. Are we confident that all three
odds on teams are gonna make the playoffs? Stranger things
have happened. There's question marks at quarterback with both Georgia
and Bama. So I was really interested in the dark
horses in the SEC, and I'm looking at this Texas
A and M team. You mentioned the seven and a
half win total. Well, if you don't want to bet
A and M, if you're not confident enough that they
can make the College FOOTBA Playoff, you can get over
eight and a half wins at DraftKings right now plus
one point fifty. And I really really like this bet
now I get and this is where I got the pushback.
The Aggies have largely disappointed in recent years. Okay, this
will be the seventh straight year that they've opened the
season ranked in the top twenty five. Only once in
those previous six have they finished in the top one,
and that was the COVID year of twenty twenty. Last year,
they go eight and five in the first season for
Mike Elko, but they were an underdog in only one
game Andy, and that was the regular season finale against Texas,
where had they won, they would have actually gone to
the SEC Champs SEC Championship game. So I look at
this team's results last year. They were way better than
that eight and five record. It was a horrible spot
that Texas game because they were coming off of four
overtime loss at Auburn the week prior, so we only
need an improvement of one win from last year in
the regular season to cash this bet. I'm looking at
a team that's top ten in returning experience, avoids Georgia
and Alabama in the regular season. They do travel to
Notre Dame LSU in Texas, Okay, but even if they
lost all three of those games, they still have a
chance to win. If they win all the other games,
I'll have them favored in the other nine games. So
just handling their business would cash a bet at plus
one point fifty. Again, I think there's question marks at
the top of the SEC. I think a lot of
teams are going to take a step back and there
is a void for one of these dark horses to
step up. And I think it's going to be Texas
A and M this year. Again, I would sprinkle a
little bit to make the playoff, but over eight and
a half is while I would attack this on the aggies.
Speaker 2: We get a question from justin P Do bowl games
count in season wins for college No? No, no, Otherwise
you would see a lot of money on Oio State.
Speaker 5: Otherwise, I feel real. Otherwise you would see plus fifty
next to that over eight and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 5: So, and for the record, I think they could.
Speaker 3: I think there's a good chance the Aggies pulling upset
one of those games this year. This is a team
that was minus four in net upsets last year. That
means the number of games they were upset as a
favorite relative to the number of games they went outright
as a dog. I get it that this is a
team that has traditionally let people down. But I'm a
by low Sell high guy Andy, as many of the
people know, they're listening right here, and I just think
it's a great Bilo spot on it a m this
year to not only win nine games but possibly make
the Comfortaball playoffs.
Speaker 2: Bill was asked just a quick question Notre Dame at
Miami opinion, no opinion, any thoughts.
Speaker 5: I'm still breaking that game down as we speak. You know.
Speaker 3: It's you know, having all this time to break down
the week zero week one games, and it's a double
edged sword because sometimes you can overthink things. I'll be
honest with you. Notre Dame was pretty lucky last year
to get as far as they did. At the same time, Miami,
I think is a team that might not be as
good as they were last year, at least early on.
So these are not in Mario Pristaball, My god, I mean,
you get so scared late in the game what this
guy could do to set your money on fire. So
these are not, honestly Notre Dame in Miami. My struggle
with that game as this season open for both is
I'm not really looking to bet either of those teams
right now as we roll into the season, we need.
Speaker 2: To we need to make that list of like top
five NFL and college football coaches that you're just most
terrified just set your money on fire at the end
of the game.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I know you can identify this any We're breaking
down so many sports, so many games a lot of times.
Speaker 5: You know, you've got to have a.
Speaker 3: Short memory in this business if you're a handicapper, right,
But I still remember a couple floors down here in
the home, in the power home, sitting in my basement,
I had Georgia Tech against Miami two years ago, and
it was a wire to wire cover for Georgia Tech.
They were getting like seventeen points and the game was
about over and I was getting ready to tweet, well,
it looks like a nice wire to wire win on
Georgia Tech, and then crystabal inexplicitly. Instead of running the clock,
gott just kept running and they fumbled and Georgia Tech recovered.
Obviously everyone remembers this game and they won it. Right
at the end, I said, well, I guess it was
an outright win. So, yeah, that was that was a crazy.
Speaker 2: I that is an all time I mean, that's just
an old timer.
Speaker 5: Oh, yes, it was. Yeah, it was the first time
you did it either. You'd think if you screwed up
like that, you would never do it again. Oh well, Mario.
Speaker 2: Hold by gatorade. All right, let's move to uh, let's
move to Oregon. Much bigger total here, ten and a
half wins. How do you break down the Oregon Ducks
for this year.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll try to be a little more brief on
this one. So I don't want to play the win
total on Oregon. So it's it's juiced. You're right, Andy
heavy to under ten and a half.
Speaker 5: So guess what.
Speaker 3: Let's take it a step further as well. Let's bet
Oregon to miss the college football Playoff. Now I know
this was the only team in the Country last year
to finish the regular season undefeated, and they got screwed.
I mean absolutely hose by the dumb way the Committee
seated in the in the first ever twelve team playoff.
Speaker 5: It was unfair.
Speaker 3: The Ducks run into Ohio State obviously the quarterfinals. Ohio State, well,
it was my biggest bet of the college football season.
Last show is a five percent to play for me
on New Year's Day. But you know, you look at
the Ducks this year. They lose a lot quarterback Dylan
Gabriel who's now in the NFL playing for the Cleveland Browns.
They lose their leading rusher, several top receivers, and a lot.
I always think when you lose losing a lot along
the offensive and defensive lines, that doesn't get the kind
of coverage that losing talent that the skill positions does,
but it is every bit is significant. I look at
Oregon having to travel to face Penn State. I think
there's a chance the Big Ten may not get four
teams in the playoff this year like they did last year.
Ohio State and Penn State they're getting it. I think
so if what I'm doing, and again I talked about
this on that same aforementioned video I referenced I did
over the weekend.
Speaker 5: What I did is I looked.
Speaker 3: At the eight teams that are currently odds on to
make the college football playoffs nationally. I think of those eight, look,
all eight aren't getting in. I think Oregon is the
most likely to miss. You can get plus one forty
five still on the Ducks to miss the playoffs. And
a little teaser for this video I've referenced a couple
times now, Andy, if you want to go back and
check that out here on the wager Talk YouTube channel.
I do have a dark horse in the Big ten.
So if Oregon's gonna miss out, who's gonna step up
in the Big ten? You guys can all check that
video out if you already haven't. I do have a
dark horse Big ten team I like this year that
I think will steal the Ducks playoff spot.
Speaker 2: Nice tease, Wow, that was a professional like you got
to go to school to learn learn teases like that.
That was very good, Brian.
Speaker 5: I've been on the show.
Speaker 3: I've learned a thing or two. You know, you can't
teach a dog a new tricks an old dog.
Speaker 2: Well, we're gonna talk guardians and Diamondbacks here, but real quick,
tell her about the Blitz. One of the most exciting
shows that we have coming up for this football season.
So tell us about this one. What can we expect?
When does it start?
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm really excited about this. It's right around the corner.
Speaker 3: We've talked about it, I feel a few times here
on the show Andy. It makes its debut this Thursday,
live one pm Eastern. Immediately following Andy laying here on
wager Talk Today, I will be joined by Ross Benjamin
and Ralph Michaels. So you just saw in the previous
segment here eRx, we're gonna talk. It's a shortcart a
week zero, so you're gonna be able to trust me.
We're gonna go over every game. And here's the thing.
We'll be taking your questions live as we go on.
So if you've got something specific you want to ask, side, total, whatever,
come in watch it live, ask us. We will answer
it between Ross, Ralph and myself and that will be
every Thursday live at one pm Eastern throughout the season.
Really looking forward to hosting the show each and every Thursday.
Speaker 2: All right, let's talk Guardians and the Diamondbacks. We got
Rodriguez the Diamondbacks before the Guardians. What's your take on
this MLB game today? It looks like Diamondbacks a little
bit of a favorite over under eight and a half.
Speaker 3: Yeah, So, over the course of the second half of
the season, Andy, I'm just gonna, you know, throw my
cards on the table here. I don't think there's been
a luckier starting pitcher in terms of wins and losses
than Cleveland's Tanner Byby. The Guardians are seven to zero
in his last seven starts. Okay, but that is despite
the fact that Bibby's allowed four or more runs in
six of those last seven starts, including each of the
last five. He has an ERA of six since July second.
So how has the team been winning with Bibby pitching
so poorly? Well, inexplicably, what has happened is the Guardians
have scored a total of fifty six runs in those
last seven Byby starts, or an average of eight per game.
And what makes that crazy, guys, is the Guardians are
not a good offensive team. As a matter of fact,
they ranked bottom five for the year in runs per game.
So I don't think these results are sustainable for Bibby.
If he continues to pitch this way, the Cleveland Guardians
are not going to continue just randomly scoring eight runs
per game for the same pitcher, and I think it's
pretty likely tonight that Bibby struggles continue facing an Arizona
team that is top six in all of baseball in
runs per game for the season. Now, I know it's
not a great night at the plate last night for
the Dbacks. They lose three to one. That was mainly
owed to the fact they were one for eight with
runners in scoring position. They actually out hit the Guardians
for the game, guys, but just couldn't get it done
when it mattered most in the clutch. I know that
the Guardians have been getting it have been a profitable
team to back the last few weeks, but I'm still
not a Look, they're my hometown team. Okay, they played
twenty minutes up the road on I seventy seven. I've
watched this team play in person many times. I don't
buy them. They're not going to make the playoffs instead
of the Yankees Andy. This is a team with a
minus thirty two run differential for the season. And what's
even more crazy about the recent surge is they were
sellers at the trade deadline and their closer got suspended.
So it's really inexplicable what they've done over these last
two to three weeks. And then the final component to
the handicap here that you need to know, guys, d
back starter and Wardo Rodriguez seven to zero lifetime versus Cleveland.
I know a majority of those starts were twenty twenty
three and before, but he's a left eat Cleveland's bottom
six against lefties in WRC plus, and Rodriguez his advanced
stats are a lot better than his traditional stats is
expected ERA a full run lower than his actual ERA.
He's off his best start of the season. I know
it was against Colorado, but it was in Colorado where
the Rockies are at least respectable offensively, the Rockies are
a better off. It's a team at home, and then
Cleveland is overall put it all together. I like the
Arizona Diamondbacks to get the job done today.
Speaker 2: You think the other starting pitchers for the for the
Guardians are just like, yeah, where where looking at the hitters, like,
are you guys serious? Could you save some right there?
Speaker 3: I feel that every Guardians game is like last night
three to one is the final, except that Tanner Bidy
pitches is the last game as a matter of fact.
And again we're always transparent on the program. I had
Miami against the Guardians last game. They went up three
to nothing in the top of the first Miami did.
I'm like, all right, it's not like Cleveland's guy, I said,
all we need is some run. It's not like Cleveland
can keep doing this for about well they did, unfortunately,
but they haven't done much. I'm telling you it's not sustainable.
You gotta put a side recency bias sometimes, guys, and
look at the big picture. I just think Tanner Biby,
the fact that he's seven to zero and over his
last seven starts is about as misleading as anything in
baseball over.
Speaker 5: The last two months.
Speaker 2: Amazing, amazing. Brian Powart's five Dollars Tuesday. Hey, what do
you have up on five dollars Tuesday?
Speaker 3: Yes, I have a Well, I should also mention that
Arizona play I just gave you I liked it. So
I thought that breakdown was so good I've made it
a four percent best bet. Actually it was already a
four percent best bet before I the breakdown. So you
got that for free, and then I have another four
percent best bet up that is just five dollars. So
for only five dollars today, obviously you get one for
free and then another one for just five dollars. Is
a pretty good deal. Get two four percent best bets
for just five dollars total up on my page wt
Dot Buzz slash BP if you want to read if
for some reason you wanted to go back and read
some of the analysis that Arizona plays up there. But
the another four percent best bet again just five dollars,
like we've all been talking about. I also have a
college football best bet up as well for Week one
if you want to beat what I think is going
to line a line move that I think.
Speaker 2: Is going to happen. Awesome, great stuff. Brian can't wait
for the Blitz. A lot of good college football content
coming your way, brought to you by Brian Power and
a company. Thank you, Brian, good luck on your five
dollars play. We're gonna do Dane White Contender series. I
know there was a there was a thing about AI,
and I'm always interested in talking about AI, especially in
the certain industries. We have to be real careful with
AI with the content. It works great when you're writing
articles or when you're writing write ups, but you got
to be really careful with predictions and stats in the past.
So someone brought up, like, is Ralph using Chad GBT
on the charts? It would be really really hard to
do that because the stats, sadly coming from AI are
not that dependable. Maybe they will be at some point,
but right now, I've tried to find stats and they
are so far off sometimes and it's really really dangerous.
So AI is great for giving us analytics on YouTube videos.
It's it's great for telling us, hey, what thumbnails work
with thumbnails don't. It's great for you know, having an
article and fixing up grammar or making things shorter, making
things longer. But as far as predictions and taking stats
from the past, it just the technology just isn't quite
there just yet. So apparently it's perfect for people in
college writing papers. As far as sports stats, not there yet.
All right, let's talk Dana White Contender series before we
get out of here, and Dan nice work on this
graphic Dana White Contender Series dogs. I like that, all right?
Speaker 5: So here you would like that?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 5: Beautiful?
Speaker 2: Yeah, very very good. I am a sucker for a
nice graphic. All right, So what I'm gonna do here
is I'm going to try and make the case for
all of the underdogs on Contender Series tonight. We will
start with the main event. Uh Delano is a huge,
huge favorite against Exposito. I can make the case for this.
Exposito is strong, he's stocky, and he's got takedowns. Dolano's
gonna be the much more dynamic striker we saw last week.
If you can get takedowns and hold guys down, you
may not get a contract, but you can win a fight.
This minus six twenty five is very scary. It's also
scary that these guys at Face Offs Dan, they shook
hands and they said, let's make this fight of the night,
which means firefight, which means like going for the kill here.
So plus four fifty five on Exposito, look for takedowns,
look for a crazy fight there. Brandon Holmes and Cam Roast,
and I can absolutely make the case for Roaston. He's
like eight inches taller than Holmes. Again, Roaston can take
guys down. Holmes is going to be your more dynamic
stro striker. But Roaston has been here before. He is
slow on the feet, but he can work ground game.
So if Roston wins, it's going to be by the
ground game. Sai Kumar against Louis Lee Scott. Sai Kumark
is coming from India. He's terrible. He was lucky to
win his last fight. Lewis Lee Scott was going to
be the big runaway favorite and then Scott missed. Wait
and he looked like someone stole his lunch money at
face offs, he looks so deflated. So if he comes
out bummed, that's how say Kumar can win. But as
far as skill level, it's Lewis Lee Scott and it's
not even close. Josh Hockett and Uriel they want Hackett
to win this. Hackett is an insane wrestler. This guy
I believe played for the forty nine ers for a
little bit. Uriol is a good striker, but Hackett should
get this to the ground the way Uriol wins as
a flash knockout in the first and he can do it.
But Hackett has said why would I strike? Why why
would I even bother stating and striking? And then Ramiro
Himan is versus Tommy Quozy. If you listened yesterday him
and Is is the guy that fought three times in
one night at a tournament. This guy is a dog, Dan,
I cannot make a case for this underdog. I absolutely
cannot make a case. Do you know why? This man
had the epitome of I'm happy to be here? He
showed up at face offs, and Dan, you know what
happens at face offs? They get in each other's face. Right,
This man brought his camera and asked to take a
selfie with his opponent. No, never go, no. Himan Is
is looking at him like, bro, you are my meal
ticket into the UFC and I'm eating tonight. This is
the underdog. I can't make a case. I thought Quoz
was gonna be bigger. He wasn't. Heaven Is as big
aer heaven As has had about a year off to heal.
So this is the one hundred dog. I can't really
make the case, which means that he's probably gonna win
by some insane some insane finish, but whatever. So that's
gonna be your underdog. The full Data White Contender Series
breakdown is gonna go up on the wager Talk YouTube
channel here this afternoon. I wanted to make sure that
that fight was still on with Louis Scott who missed weight,
and my five dollars play is going up right this second,
now that I have the final props and everything out.
So every Tuesday, my five dollars play is gonna be
data White Contender series. Thank you so much, guys, hit
the like button. A lot of great information, a lot
of great free plays. Please hit the like button just
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Take advantage of fit favorite handicapper, take advantage of handicappers
that you haven't tried out before. Let's make today a big,
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same time, same place tomorrow here on the wager Talk
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luck on all your plays tonight, and we'll see you tomorrow.
Take care