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Speaker 3: What's up?
Speaker 4: All right? All right? Both Stephen's NFL Week nine and
Speaker 4: we are ready to go. And Buddy, I only came
Speaker 4: here to do two things, find some winners and drink
Speaker 4: some beer. And it looks like I never run out
Speaker 4: of winners and I never ever run out of beer.
Speaker 4: So Bo Stephens, hit that butt in for the funny.
Speaker 3: It's a question fun. I'm gonna have fun, and you're
Speaker 3: gonna have fun. We're all gonna have so much fucking fun.
Speaker 2: When the classic surgery to remove our goddamn smiles, you'll
Speaker 2: be whistling simpity do to out of your assholes.
Speaker 4: Are you out here for the money? Anybody tells your
Speaker 4: money's the root of all evil.
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Speaker 3: Look at the fucking smile on my face.
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Speaker 4: Two questions for you people. Do you like football? What
Speaker 4: a stupid question? That is, What a stupid question. You
Speaker 4: ask a lot of stupid questions for a stupid My apologies,
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Speaker 3: I like it, I use it.
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Speaker 4: right now it is everybody's most unfortunate favorite part of
Speaker 4: the show. My friend, tell the people all about your horrible,
Speaker 4: disgusting O choice of the week.
Speaker 3: I still drunk. I feel right don well, thank you
Speaker 3: very much their search and I am drinking a Miller
Speaker 3: genuine draft two out of five stars. But I'm drinking
Speaker 3: it's not a long horn because it is an old
Speaker 3: shitty beer. And when it comes to the NFL this year,
Speaker 3: I am an old shitty handicapper. But just like this beer, baby,
Speaker 3: I'm not going down without a fucking fight. A lot
Speaker 3: of season left. Hold on, I fucking turn this round
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Speaker 4: Oh my god, Okay, it's happening. God, what what do
Speaker 4: you think is happening right now?
Speaker 1: What's happening here?
Speaker 4: Excuse me?
Speaker 3: What is happening here? What is happening? What the fuck
Speaker 3: just happened? Oh? You know what's happening. It's time for
Speaker 3: all those wins coming to the ads to night member.
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, boys and girls, those bells, those bells. It
Speaker 3: is weak nine. It is time to rock and roll.
Speaker 4: Long, get out of here. Phil Collins, shut your mouth,
Speaker 4: Shut your mouth, Phil calls, we're talking to you, all right.
Speaker 3: Uh uh, Look we're gonna we're not messing around. We're
Speaker 3: starting with the barn burner of the week. I bet
Speaker 3: we're going on those New England Patriots. Well, those hot
Speaker 3: Atlanta Falcons who's playing quarterback? Who knows? Who gives a ship?
Speaker 3: They're coming up there. They're five and a half point
Speaker 3: road dogs. Longhorn, what do you have on this fucking
Speaker 3: just major matchup?
Speaker 4: That's actually not the game I thought you were gonna
Speaker 4: start with. But yeah, Atlanta, New England, this is a
Speaker 4: big kind of depends on who's playing quarterback for for Atlanta.
Speaker 4: So let me switch to I had us on Cincinnati Chicago,
Speaker 4: so let me just switch my sheet here to all
Speaker 4: the way down. Never know where you get your order
Speaker 4: of games from, but it's fine, it's it's it's all good.
Speaker 4: So we got Falcons currently, Well, where is he is?
Speaker 3: He?
Speaker 4: Not even on the he's not even on the injury
Speaker 4: Forard anymore. He's off the injury fort Okay, we still
Speaker 4: got drink London with a questionable. But that's that's good
Speaker 4: usually for a question when you're gonna play. So look, okay,
Speaker 4: so if these players are playing, what's the line currently?
Speaker 4: What'd you say five and a half? How did it
Speaker 4: not move then? Because it was five and a half
Speaker 4: when they were it was highly up in the air
Speaker 4: two days ago.
Speaker 3: Let's see five and a half. Juicey that us you
Speaker 3: can still get a six. Holy shit, if you luck
Speaker 3: the Falcons, head on over to bet us boys and girls.
Speaker 3: They're just giving money away.
Speaker 4: Okay, so this makes me feel even better about my pick,
Speaker 4: at least the side that I'm on, because I'm on
Speaker 4: New England. But I don't like that the line as
Speaker 4: it moved, because I should be getting some value.
Speaker 3: Because we Depending on what you believe he was, it
Speaker 3: was kind of a surprise that he didn't play last week.
Speaker 3: He was almost a go so well, basically the market
Speaker 3: was assuming.
Speaker 4: That's fine this They usually hedge a little bit at least, though,
Speaker 4: so I thought I could at least squeeze out a point,
Speaker 4: maybe a half point whatever point being I'm on New England.
Speaker 4: New England just appears to be the most unflinching. We
Speaker 4: don't care what the spot is, we don't care what
Speaker 4: y'all think about us. We just go out there and
Speaker 4: Drake May, I'm just gonna fucking ball out. If it's
Speaker 4: not working one hundred percent with my arm, I'll mix
Speaker 4: in my leg my legs to get some action.
Speaker 3: So he just needs one leg.
Speaker 4: What do you mean, Drake May? Oh yeah, he probably
Speaker 4: could be some of these teams with one leg. That's
Speaker 4: how that's how good you know that he's like in
Speaker 4: the MVP like conversation anyways, right now.
Speaker 3: And I said this last year, A Longhorn yelled at
Speaker 3: me profusely and said I was an idiot. I said,
Speaker 3: you know what, I know, Jade Daniels having this great season,
Speaker 3: but all in all, if I had to pick the
Speaker 3: best quarterback out of this class, this actually performed this year.
Speaker 3: It was And you were like, are you faking Hey
Speaker 3: is terrible? Heyes, John. I was like, look, I know,
Speaker 3: I know you can go back and look the tape,
Speaker 3: boys and girls, it's documented. It's all documented. I said,
Speaker 3: I know his numbers are bad, and I know Jay
Speaker 3: Nanners put up MVP numbers. However, all in all, if
Speaker 3: you look what he was working with and you look
Speaker 3: at his underlying stats, he's actually probably had, I can say,
Speaker 3: better than Jay Naimers, but it was pretty close. It
Speaker 3: was pretty fucking close. You just.
Speaker 1: Wow.
Speaker 4: On top of the at least I counted two or
Speaker 4: three lives that you just do.
Speaker 3: No, that's not a lot. That's fucking document on tape.
Speaker 3: You literally fucking yelled you like you're fucking crazy. I
Speaker 3: was like, I'm not crazy. I know what I see
Speaker 3: through the fucking numbers.
Speaker 4: First of all, you were crazy, because yeah, Jade and Daniels,
Speaker 4: I wasn't.
Speaker 3: Crazy his numbers compared to what he was working with.
Speaker 4: That's not how that that's not how that works. According
Speaker 4: to based on what he was working with. That, yes,
Speaker 4: and I'm sure I agreed that based on what he's
Speaker 4: working with it he played better than Yes, I did. No,
Speaker 4: I didn't prove poo pooing that you think that he
Speaker 4: had a better year than Jayde and Daniels. Yeah, I
Speaker 4: still I stand by that because that's dumb because Jaye
Speaker 4: Daniels took a team that that was gonna force to
Speaker 4: win five games of the goddamn Ancy Championship game. So
Speaker 4: if you want to play your flag on that, go ahead.
Speaker 4: But yeah, Jake, Drake May played better than his number show.
Speaker 4: I agree with that, I'm sure. And what he had
Speaker 4: to do, yes, I did, you did not. Okay, Well
Speaker 4: you can't prove it and you won't. I know you
Speaker 4: won't do the work to go back and prove it.
Speaker 4: So it's.
Speaker 3: How many times have I done the word just to
Speaker 3: do this to you?
Speaker 4: Remember your arm? I think this guy's probably yeah, yeah, yeah,
Speaker 4: he's a Yeah. That was like eight years ago. That
Speaker 4: was like eight years ago, it was.
Speaker 3: Like six and and I did do the work and
Speaker 3: I brought it back. You're like, I didn't say that.
Speaker 3: I was like, yeah, you did, But you won't be able.
Speaker 4: You won't be able to find every time I've talked
Speaker 4: about fucking Drake May and you just won't do the work.
Speaker 4: I know you won't. But anyways, so that he's playing
Speaker 4: like an m v P this year. Another thing that
Speaker 4: you conveniently left out is that I was higher on
Speaker 4: you coming out of the draft, So like you just
Speaker 4: you just forget that part of the story. So anyways
Speaker 4: he's playing.
Speaker 3: When you were like he sucks, I'm like, he doesn't
Speaker 3: suck as bad as you think he does. He really does.
Speaker 3: I was the one that ended up having to defend
Speaker 3: the kid, That's my point. But yes, that is true.
Speaker 3: Longhorn was much higher in them coming out that I was.
Speaker 3: I was not a believer in Drake May at all,
Speaker 3: but I wasn't believing in Jadan Daniels either, So obviously
Speaker 3: I didn't know about either one of them. Although I
Speaker 3: might end up being right about Jade Daniels because he
Speaker 3: can't stand the fit.
Speaker 4: He's having some uh some RG three issues. RG three
Speaker 4: come back. So in this game, Atlanta is just not
Speaker 4: an outdoor team. And anytime I can fade a dome
Speaker 4: team going on the grass. And I checked the weather
Speaker 4: report in New England, I'm not it's not what I
Speaker 4: would like. I'd like it to be a lot more
Speaker 4: Boston nasty. Then it's gonna be on Sunday, it's gonna.
Speaker 3: Be I guess the storm is gonna hang around. So
Speaker 3: that's from Jamaica.
Speaker 4: It's not gonna make it up there.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's basically hitting weirdly enough, like in the Tennessee Kentucky.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's gonna be cold. It's ship though, and it's
Speaker 4: gonna be a grass outdoor team or indoor team. Mm hmm.
Speaker 4: Good because they they suck when it's perfect weather. I
Speaker 4: can't imagine how bad they're gonna suck when it's when
Speaker 4: it's horrible, horrible weather. I can't even imagine. No, So
Speaker 4: like Pennix is uh, he's had two outdoor games he's
Speaker 4: owing to He's terrible like it. Like just I'm gonna
Speaker 4: start like just doing with these teams what what I
Speaker 4: should be doing, And that's spot. I mean that's how
Speaker 4: I do it basically anyways. But I'm gonna start writing
Speaker 4: these spots out until they prove me wrong.
Speaker 3: I'm just gonna be very bad period. He is twenty
Speaker 3: third and CPO plus EP. That's right above Bryce Sung
Speaker 3: and right below to it Antis plus blow your boys,
Speaker 3: Spencer Rat. Yeah, so that's another quarterback I might have
Speaker 3: been right about.
Speaker 4: Well, he lost to Carolina Outdoors thirty to like six,
Speaker 4: so he's he's just extra bad outdoors. So yeah, I'm
Speaker 4: on New England. Obviously. Six is a key number in
Speaker 4: the NFL these days. It's more key than than it
Speaker 4: has been before. So if you if you can get
Speaker 4: it under the six, that's great. I don't know that
Speaker 4: you'll necessarily need it, especially the way New England just
Speaker 4: rolls up on people. But yeah, I'm on the five on.
Speaker 3: Bet online Juice five, so you got access to that book.
Speaker 3: That's your best line five and a half everywhere else
Speaker 3: except the loan bet us at plus the six.
Speaker 4: So yeah, that's weird. No no injury report, by the way,
Speaker 4: for for for New England, they're they're just they're beating everybody.
Speaker 4: They got no injuries. It's it's it's amazing, and that's
Speaker 4: that's huge. Like these players are going down like flies
Speaker 4: in the NFL. If you're completely healthy, you're in good shit.
Speaker 3: It's a huge advantage. That's the reason why they're beating everybody.
Speaker 4: Yes's exactly why.
Speaker 3: Uh yeah, I got nothing on this game, so I
Speaker 3: didn't know who was playing quarterback and I just skipped it,
Speaker 3: all right, all right, moving on to those Green Bay Packers.
Speaker 3: Faith in those Carolina Panthers. Maybe brussh Young. I don't know.
Speaker 3: Andy Dalton broke his thumb, he's definitely out. They might
Speaker 3: not have a quarterback at all. They might just go
Speaker 3: full on wildcat wishbone. Let's fucking go baby. Either way,
Speaker 3: we're staring at green Bay. Uh, you can get them
Speaker 3: at thirteen at bet online. Thirteen and a half is
Speaker 3: juiced to the dog. So fading down to the thirteen,
Speaker 3: we'll call it thirteen point two five longhorn for the
Speaker 3: green Bay package home favorite here. Well, sorry, I forgot
Speaker 3: to go with the preseason line on this preseason line
Speaker 3: on this one. I mean I had Carolina as bad
Speaker 3: as back and get I had this game at dreen
Speaker 3: Bay minus eight. Vegas had it seven and a half.
Speaker 3: We're sitting at thirteen and a half, thirteen and a half,
Speaker 3: and Carolina is a five hundred football team. So does
Speaker 3: it say about the quarterback situation? Probably they don't fucking
Speaker 3: got one. Probably they don't fucking got one. We're probably
Speaker 3: gonna see a name is Jake delom available?
Speaker 1: Na?
Speaker 4: I thank you?
Speaker 3: Cam? Is cam available now playing this game?
Speaker 4: He's Brashdown's playing. He's not even on the injury cotan
Speaker 4: think that he is.
Speaker 3: I think that he is.
Speaker 4: I'm not seeing I'm listening on an injury fort. So
Speaker 4: he must have practiced today.
Speaker 3: He was at practice and stretched, which is an improvement
Speaker 3: according to the media thirteen and a half from eight
Speaker 3: and seven. Again I was down on them, Vegas is
Speaker 3: down on them, and now we're a full five five
Speaker 3: and a half points, six full points above what Vegas
Speaker 3: said six full points. And again Carolina is a five
Speaker 3: hundred team. So I don't know long Horn make it
Speaker 3: makes sense to me.
Speaker 4: I am, I'm looking if he's playing, I'm looking up
Speaker 4: rations injury status and try to find some better information.
Speaker 3: See, but in this game, you want to go through
Speaker 3: mine and you look it up.
Speaker 4: I mean mine's I don't look. He has to play.
Speaker 4: I mean, I don't give a fuck like you got
Speaker 4: nobody else. You gotta play. Get your ass out there
Speaker 4: and find that fucking dog. But this is a gross
Speaker 4: This is just a gross discussing spot to be in
Speaker 4: because you got Carolina. And again I talked about the
Speaker 4: spots that I like that I like to bet on
Speaker 4: or off teams, and this one's a colliding one because
Speaker 4: we've got Carolina on the road. That's not that's just
Speaker 4: you don't immediately that's not where we want to be.
Speaker 3: But unless they're playing the Jets and they can score
Speaker 3: thirteen points and not only win, but Cup.
Speaker 4: Yes, true, that is true.
Speaker 3: They did.
Speaker 4: They did win that one on the road. But then
Speaker 4: you got Green Bay, which their thing that you don't want,
Speaker 4: at least currently is you don't want them as big favorites.
Speaker 4: They don't. They're they're this year, They're not. They're not
Speaker 4: covering big favorites. Jordan Love is owing for ats in
Speaker 4: his career as a favorite of seven or more points.
Speaker 4: It's not his particular spot. So we've gotta we gotta
Speaker 4: we got a class here.
Speaker 3: I think it's a systematic thing too for Green Bay,
Speaker 3: Like their coach is so smart and he's so confident
Speaker 3: in what they do, which is what I have been
Speaker 3: saying the whole time. Has a peak? Yet they have
Speaker 3: a peak? Yet they have a peak. Don't think they have.
Speaker 3: They have not seen their best football. Now we saw
Speaker 3: a flash of it in Pittsburgh.
Speaker 4: We do against good teams, though, which which tells me
Speaker 4: that they're that they know they're better than what they
Speaker 4: show on some of these Yeah, which so that so
Speaker 4: I'm landing on Carolina in any kind of contest, I'm
Speaker 4: reluctantly gonna have to plug them in at the third
Speaker 4: that the monster number historically, I know historically is a
Speaker 4: good number. I mean, I just am I gonna get
Speaker 4: motherfucked by Carolina on the road outdoors? Probably so, But
Speaker 4: I mean, what what else are you gonna do? So, yeah,
Speaker 4: it's just a girls numbers play for me. I really need,
Speaker 4: I really need Bryce Young to just suck it up
Speaker 4: and get your ass out there. I mean, just just
Speaker 4: just do it. But yeah, got that fucking dog and
Speaker 4: to pick your poison game, I'm gonna take the Carolina
Speaker 4: poison pill.
Speaker 3: I guess yeah, I'd have to leave with the power
Speaker 3: ringers on Carolina here now. But the thing I like
Speaker 3: best year is in total. So this total is at
Speaker 3: forty four and a half seems low. And if you
Speaker 3: look at what the total has been doing, Longhorn, it
Speaker 3: has been a ridiculous slate of overs this season, yet again,
Speaker 3: even worse than last year. I mean even worse. Like
Speaker 3: if you we talked about it at the very beginning
Speaker 3: of the season, if you literally walked up and bet
Speaker 3: the over every game last year and the favorite, you
Speaker 3: literally made money. Hey you didn't make much, but you
Speaker 3: made money. Just say, I don't care who's playing, I
Speaker 3: don't care what the total is, give me the favorite
Speaker 3: give me the most square thing possible, give me the
Speaker 3: favorite and the over, and you walked away at the
Speaker 3: end of the season winning money, which is mind fucking
Speaker 3: to us and to most professionals. That's not how traditionally
Speaker 3: you win in the NFL. But I've talked about.
Speaker 4: They can't catch up to the new rules.
Speaker 3: So it's not only that I truly believe that the
Speaker 3: influx of the titty touts and the fact.
Speaker 4: That I don't think I don't think that's I.
Speaker 3: Think that you're wrong. I think that I'm right. I
Speaker 3: think the titty touts and the fact that this is
Speaker 3: legal everywhere, and all the titty toowls do is repeat
Speaker 3: people like me and you who say the traditional things,
Speaker 3: bet the dogs, bet the under all that gets out there,
Speaker 3: And now Vegas has made the adjustment to where favorites
Speaker 3: are covering and the fucking totals are going over. I
Speaker 3: truly believe that because at this point they wouldn't continue
Speaker 3: to do something that was gonna beat them. That's not
Speaker 3: what Vegas thinks. So I truly believe. I just believe
Speaker 3: that to be true.
Speaker 4: Now so so with the change in the kickoff rule,
Speaker 4: the fact that every team gets the memo now that
Speaker 4: you just go for it on fourth downs or this year,
Speaker 4: but that's just this year.
Speaker 3: On the kickoff. Last year the kickoff rule, I told
Speaker 3: you we have no consequence. They were all just going
Speaker 3: to kick the INDs on which they did.
Speaker 4: It didn't have a tick up, it was a tick
Speaker 4: up and just did tick up.
Speaker 3: But I told you every team's gonna kick in the
Speaker 3: inZone and they did. Now this year they're kicking it
Speaker 3: in the landing zone because the filing is too great, right,
Speaker 3: So now it's shit created more variants back towards the
Speaker 3: under because now we have a different differential. Like last
Speaker 3: year was pretty much ninety percent of the time they
Speaker 3: started the fucking thirty like nine percent. They didn't give
Speaker 3: a show that they're still kicking the inzet So now
Speaker 3: we have a bigger variance, So that shouldn't really be
Speaker 3: playing a factor in this. The fourth down thing absolutely
Speaker 3: plays a factor, but again the market adjusts for that
Speaker 3: if it's if they're really getting beat, they do adjusts.
Speaker 3: They're not getting beat because all the teddy towns still
Speaker 3: repeat what we say, take the undertake the dog, and
Speaker 3: they're not losing, because if they were losing, they would
Speaker 3: make the adjustment, but they're not. That's why they have
Speaker 3: it like, oh, you have just all the money and
Speaker 3: you know that I'm right. And I don't know if
Speaker 3: it's the titty tows for sure, but it has. It
Speaker 3: has to play a factor that this ship is legalized
Speaker 3: where And that's just the old school thought. And since
Speaker 3: everybody bet that when it was first started and we
Speaker 3: were having good years, now they've made the adjustment to
Speaker 3: where can't just bet the dog.
Speaker 4: In the end to win the NFL definitely can't do
Speaker 4: the dog, for sure, and you really can't under No,
Speaker 4: you can't do that.
Speaker 3: In this game. I like that said, all that fucking preaching.
Speaker 3: I do like the under here.
Speaker 4: It's fourteen to six. Oh you're talking about Carolina, Carolina.
Speaker 3: I like the under here in the forty four and
Speaker 3: a half. A couple of different reasons. Number One, this
Speaker 3: isn't actually a good matchup for Jordan Love. Now, this
Speaker 3: Carolina defense, their offense blows on the road, but their
Speaker 3: defense goes to play again. They beat me when they
Speaker 3: scored thirteen points on the road against the Jets team
Speaker 3: who they just scored forty against fucking Censior. Whatever they
Speaker 3: scored scored like almost thirty against the Cows and fucking
Speaker 3: thirty something against Pittsburgh. So against incompetent defenses, the Jets
Speaker 3: can't score the ball. Against Carolina, they could move the ball.
Speaker 3: There's a reason for that. Carolina is the fourth best
Speaker 3: success rate defense in the NFL. Low Wren's been telling
Speaker 3: us for years that they're building, they're building, they're building.
Speaker 3: What's finally fucking here, It's finally come together. They're the
Speaker 3: fourth best success rate defense in the entire league. And
Speaker 3: green Bay, oh, sorry, second best, second best defense, green Bay.
Speaker 3: That's wild, Yes, green Bay is the fourth best success
Speaker 3: rate on offense. Green Bay has scored exactly twenty seven
Speaker 3: points in all three home games this year. Carolina on
Speaker 3: the road has scored a ten, twenty, two, thirteen, and thirteen.
Speaker 3: So feels like an all day under to.
Speaker 4: Me, Brush Young practice fully boy the way.
Speaker 3: Okay, this is a terror greative with Bryce Young Brushung
Speaker 3: is a terrible matchup for him. He loses two points
Speaker 3: to BBG. He's going to be ultimate dog ass in
Speaker 3: this game. So again that leads to the under. The
Speaker 3: other thing is this, green Bay does gain half a
Speaker 3: point to the BBG through the running game, which that's
Speaker 3: bustling matchup bass. Again, Carolina is very good against the run.
Speaker 3: Here's the surprising thing to me, though Carolin is supposed
Speaker 3: to lose a point and a half of the BBG,
Speaker 3: Carolina has got the fifth best success rate rushing the
Speaker 3: ball and green Bay is twenty first on the defense.
Speaker 3: So that's all matchup base. So if the coaching staff
Speaker 3: for Carolina is worth a shit, they should be able
Speaker 3: to make some changes at least mitigate the loss of
Speaker 3: some of those points there. Now, overall, I agree with
Speaker 3: your cover green Bay winning this game twenty four to fifteen.
Speaker 3: That's safely under the forty four and a half. You
Speaker 3: just got, you know, a great defense going against a
Speaker 3: great offense, and you've got a middling defense going against
Speaker 3: on the road, a fucking horrendous offense, and it's a
Speaker 3: horrendous matchup for Bryce Young. I agree with your Carolina Leen.
Speaker 3: I like the under all day, so I would take
Speaker 3: the dog in the under which neither of them ever wins.
Speaker 3: What do I have to lose?
Speaker 4: I was just looking at their PFF kind of scorers
Speaker 4: and at least player player by player, and I looked
Speaker 4: up who the defensive coordinator is. It's a giro Evro
Speaker 4: and he was He came there last year with the
Speaker 4: new coach, the new head coach, and they sucked last year.
Speaker 4: And I don't see a whole lot of new players.
Speaker 4: I mean, they drafted Nick Gordon out of a good
Speaker 4: old aggie, out of A and M and it's not
Speaker 4: they didn't do holy shit else. And the fact that
Speaker 4: he's turned what they had last year mostly into what
Speaker 4: they are this year so far, you know, you know,
Speaker 4: through through eight games. Damn hats off to to whoever
Speaker 4: this defensive coordinator is, because they absolutely were garbage last year.
Speaker 3: And sometimes we've seen this longhorn that they I like
Speaker 3: your boy, Minnesota. It takes a year sometimes if you
Speaker 3: have a really complex scheme for these players to actually
Speaker 3: understand it and actually know their roles. And although some
Speaker 3: of the changes might not look like major players, it's
Speaker 3: just guys field gaps. You know exactly what he needs
Speaker 3: in defense. Maybe that's it. I don't know. I don't
Speaker 3: know this guy's coaching tree.
Speaker 4: But there's only one player rated above like a sixty
Speaker 4: six individually on their defense, and that's Derek Brown, who's
Speaker 4: been a you know, all pro type defensive tackle. If you.
Speaker 3: Look what they get against Dallas, the number two offense
Speaker 3: in the NFL.
Speaker 4: Down, Oh, I've I've been noticing just watching them. It's like, Damn,
Speaker 4: Carolina's a little tough in this game. Tough in this game.
Speaker 4: I mean just and so hey, man, if it's if
Speaker 4: it's working, it's working like this is you know what
Speaker 4: this will get to Pittsburgh later. This is what I'm
Speaker 4: talking about. Pittsburgh has awesome players that I've seen be
Speaker 4: all pro slash Pro Bowls in different places and in
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh and for whatever reason it ain't working. Sometimes a
Speaker 4: coordinator makes a huge difference. So it's just you know,
Speaker 4: he's obviously doing well in Carolina, and uh, whoever's doing
Speaker 4: in Pittsburgh just fire yourself because you've been awful. It's
Speaker 4: so stupid, stupid.
Speaker 3: That Pittsburgh coordinator is so stupid. All right, let's move
Speaker 3: on two. All right, now we'll get to the name
Speaker 3: you thought we're going to. Let's those Cincinnati Bengals, probably
Speaker 3: without Joe Flacco, back to Misster Browning. Is that is
Speaker 3: that Chicago?
Speaker 4: For sure?
Speaker 3: He's got a spring. Dacy joined his shoulder the fact
Speaker 3: they went from a favorite to dog tells me probably.
Speaker 4: So.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 3: Now this number has ticked down a bit now, it's
Speaker 3: down to two and a half, although it's heavily sent.
Speaker 3: So let's call it two point seventy five. Those Chicago Bears,
Speaker 3: that kid are the favorites. What do you got on this?
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's it's showing them was questionable. Really, this is
Speaker 4: this is major, major dependent on Joe Flacco for me,
Speaker 4: because I can't trust.
Speaker 3: They were so just real quick. They open world open
Speaker 3: minus one. They got up the Chicago minus three starting
Speaker 3: to take back down now, so we'll see what that means.
Speaker 3: But obviously they're heading towards Flacco not playing.
Speaker 4: I mean, Browning is not he's been awful this year.
Speaker 4: He's been better than what he's shown this year in
Speaker 4: the past. With the injuries that Chicago's dealing with in
Speaker 4: the secondary, this should be it should be a good
Speaker 4: spot for Cincinnati, and I would hope it would be Flacco.
Speaker 4: So it's a possible danger zone. But I clearly can't
Speaker 4: do it because you just all this uncertainty. I'm not
Speaker 4: I'm not going to burn a unit on this much uncertainty.
Speaker 4: Because there's also the formula for Chicago to go in
Speaker 4: there and get this win, good running game that they've
Speaker 4: been showing lately going against a fucking sieve of a
Speaker 4: defense versus the run. The Jets rent up, the Jets
Speaker 4: round out like like basically the same strategy that Jets
Speaker 4: did last week.
Speaker 3: To play linebacker. I don't know how much help, right.
Speaker 4: So you know with Chicago coming off that that loss
Speaker 4: last week, you got, you got motivation, you got the
Speaker 4: bounce back fucking oh yeah, and you've Ben Oh he's
Speaker 4: he hates losing. You can tell if it fucking irks him.
Speaker 4: And now if he can get his quarterback to hate
Speaker 4: and and lose as much as he does and actually
Speaker 4: put the work in that that the coach does, yeah,
Speaker 4: he's You can't cry in the NFL when you lose
Speaker 4: the game. You can't go to the stands and cry
Speaker 4: in your mama's arms. So figure it out. But this
Speaker 4: is a good spot for Chicago. If Flacco was playing,
Speaker 4: I like, give me any points I can get with Cincinnati.
Speaker 4: But clearly, if he was playing, you wouldn't be getting points.
Speaker 4: So I'm kind of torn. I'm gonna probably land on
Speaker 4: Chicago just for the bounce back factor and the fact
Speaker 4: they should be able to dominate this game on the ground,
Speaker 4: control the clock, and I just love that coach, and
Speaker 4: and I anytime I can fade Cincinnati, let me have
Speaker 4: all of that. So Chicago reluctantly.
Speaker 3: Cincinnati forever and ever and ever. I don't have anything
Speaker 3: in this game except for this. This is Cincinnati before
Speaker 3: the buye their home dog since twenty twenty one, seventeen,
Speaker 3: thirteen and one fifty six. Now, I don't know that
Speaker 3: factors in, but you don't have a quarterback or I mean,
Speaker 3: I'm with you. I think Browning can go out there
Speaker 3: and get it done. Chicago's defense has been pretty shitty
Speaker 3: all season.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I would never play this on if this would
Speaker 4: never make it either side on any car that I
Speaker 4: would ever have in a million years.
Speaker 3: Except twenty ninth and success rate, so except maybe been
Speaker 3: over because thirty first Chaugu's twenty nine. So you have
Speaker 3: two of the worst defenses in the NFL. I don't
Speaker 3: give if it is Browning, he should be able to score,
Speaker 3: Chicago's be able to score.
Speaker 4: What's the over at currently? Uh?
Speaker 3: When I wrote it, when I wrote it down in
Speaker 3: my journal, it's fifty one mm fifteen one. That's intriguing.
Speaker 4: That's that's a that's a key number. So if you
Speaker 4: can get that to fifty and a half, even if
Speaker 4: it is Browning, I might have some interest in that over.
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's gonna be able to put up points.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I've got some interest in that over. We saw
Speaker 4: Detroit put up I mean it's I know it's Detroy,
Speaker 4: but Chicago and Detroit actually want to play very similar
Speaker 4: styles of offense and they and they kind of are
Speaker 4: lately with the running game emergence of Chicago. So if
Speaker 4: Detroit can go in there and put up i don't know,
Speaker 4: forty something goddamn points that they did. Yeah, so I'm
Speaker 4: I'm interested in the over in this game.
Speaker 3: Sure, Yeah, that's that's the only way I look on
Speaker 3: this one. All right, let's move on to those Houston
Speaker 3: I said Houston with that h Texans. Now, this is
Speaker 3: a game. I don't know that I'll bet it, but
Speaker 3: I am very very interested to see this game for
Speaker 3: many many reasons. Yeah, Now preseas on this one. I'll
Speaker 3: bring up the preseas lots especially. Have you know the
Speaker 3: teams that we basically thought we would they are who
Speaker 3: we thought they were all right this one. I had
Speaker 3: Houston minus one and a half. No, yes, I had
Speaker 3: Houston minus one and a half. Vegas had Houston plus
Speaker 3: one and a half, So I fucking win. Uh, Houston
Speaker 3: is minus one and a half. So I called it
Speaker 3: right on the fucking number of that kid. Actually two
Speaker 3: at Heritage, but and two at Bravado, but one and
Speaker 3: a half most places, maybe one point seven somewhere around
Speaker 3: in there. It doesn't really matter between one and two.
Speaker 3: So uh. Now the total in this one is ticked
Speaker 3: up from thirty and a half, so that was a
Speaker 3: little interesting to me, especially with our projections. We'll get
Speaker 3: to in a second. What do you have on this one?
Speaker 4: Yeah, this one is six and two for the Broncos.
Speaker 4: By the way, I'm gonna be on Houston. I'm gonna
Speaker 4: be on Houston this game. And it kind of sucks
Speaker 4: that this was a line flip from from dog to
Speaker 4: favorite obviously earlier in the week. That sucks. So I
Speaker 4: don't I don't get to do a sounder or or
Speaker 4: get any kind of credit for that.
Speaker 3: But world open officially, and so okay, it's been all
Speaker 3: Texas money coming in.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna be on their Patrick stan is out
Speaker 4: and Uson needs all the help they can get. When
Speaker 4: when with Stroud, I know Nico Collins is likely to
Speaker 4: come back from that concussion thing. They are getting Christian
Speaker 4: Kirk back, and the two rookie and the two he
Speaker 4: has been cleared, Nico yes, okay perfect, and then the
Speaker 4: two rookie Iowa State receivers that they drafted. In these
Speaker 4: absence and these and these injuries that they've had have
Speaker 4: kind of grown up over the last few weeks. Along
Speaker 4: with Woody Marks, the rookie that they drafted, they've been
Speaker 4: what you would expect from, you know, second and third,
Speaker 4: third round wide receiver selections, slow, slow to start, and
Speaker 4: then now they're starting to make some plays, so and
Speaker 4: now they can now now with Kirk and Nico back
Speaker 4: in the mix, they're going to slide into that third
Speaker 4: and fourth wide receiver set. Really like that. The emergence
Speaker 4: of Woody Marks, their fifth round pick. I believe out
Speaker 4: of USC running back really loved him coming out, talked
Speaker 4: about him in the preseason, pods him at that combo
Speaker 4: with him and Nick Chubb starting to fall into place,
Speaker 4: the office line still garbage, but not hot garbage. It's
Speaker 4: kind of garbage. So it's we're we're getting a little
Speaker 4: bit better there. But this basically both that's not my
Speaker 4: handicap because because at this point we know what Houston
Speaker 4: is and we know what they're not. We know they're
Speaker 4: a great defense, we know they're yeah, not any good.
Speaker 4: But they win his game. They're four and four and
Speaker 4: they're climbing when they started. Then they start owing three.
Speaker 4: I think they started owing three. So if they won
Speaker 4: his game, they're on a four and one, you know, stretch.
Speaker 4: So happen that what might happen?
Speaker 1: Mm hmmmm.
Speaker 4: Well, we don't count records till they're till all the
Speaker 4: games are done, so it's it is. It is what
Speaker 4: it is. But Denver is another team that we we
Speaker 4: know what they are. We know they're a good team
Speaker 4: with a limp.
Speaker 3: Against Baltimore without.
Speaker 4: Mm hmmm.
Speaker 3: So they really they really should be, I.
Speaker 4: Know, because because Lamar was winning so many games, he
Speaker 4: was winning so many games when he was in there,
Speaker 4: he was.
Speaker 3: He was just bet they would have lost forty.
Speaker 4: He was Lamar was just fucking cash and wins after
Speaker 4: wins when he was healthy. That that Baltimore team maybe.
Speaker 3: But I bet it wasn't forty four to ten.
Speaker 4: Let's see Baltimore, yep, one win, one win, still in
Speaker 4: the air. We're in week nine. That's uh that that
Speaker 4: Oh sorry, sorry Baltimore, you got too in week nine. Congratulations. No,
Speaker 4: Denver is bow Knicks dependent and anytime you're making them
Speaker 4: That's what I said. I said, if they said, if
Speaker 4: they win this game, to be.
Speaker 3: Four and four, so yeah, so they should be too
Speaker 3: in five.
Speaker 4: Yeah, okay, all right, We're done with the kudas should
Speaker 4: have wouldow game and let's just get into this one.
Speaker 4: Bow Knicks is four and seven as in his career
Speaker 4: as a dog, he's turning into deck for me and
Speaker 4: I just talked about and a couple of handicaps ago
Speaker 4: that I'm going to start riding these streaks and like spots.
Speaker 4: We know, Dak you bet him against bad teams. You
Speaker 4: don't bet him against good teams, especially on the road.
Speaker 4: Bonux is turned into that for me, so until proven otherwise,
Speaker 4: you know. And now you can say, hey, well I
Speaker 4: don't think that Houston's a bad team. You fine, you
Speaker 4: will well if you're right on, well, we'll find out
Speaker 4: at the end of the year if that was right.
Speaker 4: Or wrong, But right now, I know they're an elite defense,
Speaker 4: and Bonix has to play against an elite defense. So
Speaker 4: I'm going to take the other side on this one.
Speaker 4: And and and the fact that Patrick starts in huh
Speaker 4: better than Houston, boy, I don't. Well, maybe they are,
Speaker 4: but you're you're flipping coins here. And the fact that
Speaker 4: Patrick Sartan is out. And here's the thing Patrick often
Speaker 4: allows allows Denver, who is a high blitz rate team,
Speaker 4: they can they send five more than anybody any other
Speaker 4: team because they got a guy that can lock down
Speaker 4: one on one. Is that gonna change their whole kind
Speaker 4: of thing? I doubt it. I bet they probably try
Speaker 4: to do what they do somewhat. It's gotta change something.
Speaker 4: But like I just like the fact that Houston is
Speaker 4: getting all the receivers back. You've got the main cog
Speaker 4: of the Denver defense that allows me new what they
Speaker 4: do out It all points to Houston for me. I'm
Speaker 4: getting them under you know, under two points, under three points,
Speaker 4: so I'm gonna be.
Speaker 3: On them all right, He's gonna be on you, Houston.
Speaker 3: I don't have a strong feeling this scam, which is
Speaker 3: just busting on horns balls Now the prior ring is
Speaker 3: do you have denver. I've got it twenty to twenty
Speaker 3: one Denver. Now the total so that was over the
Speaker 3: total rigis thirty nine and a half. It's ticked up
Speaker 3: to forty and a half. Now here's the thing. The
Speaker 3: success rate does not agree with this thing going over.
Speaker 3: You've got two of the worst offenses in the entire league,
Speaker 3: twenty sixth and twenty fifth, respectively, and you've got the
Speaker 3: number four and number one success rate defense, respectively. So
Speaker 3: it feels like an under all the way. But my
Speaker 3: numbers don't support that, and the market has supported my
Speaker 3: numbers going to the over here. It's kind of those
Speaker 3: sneaky overs that I think might actually happen. It's not
Speaker 3: enough for me to get behind it, but the market
Speaker 3: and my number, these hidden numbers are supporting that. But
Speaker 3: if you just looked at it on paper, got two
Speaker 3: of the worst offenses versus got two bottom five offense
Speaker 3: but versus two top five defenses, what would a square
Speaker 3: look at that and say, oh, fucking give me the
Speaker 3: under probably goes over twenty two to twenty one. Flipp
Speaker 3: it either way, something like that. Either one of these
Speaker 3: quarterbacks great out well, but they don't. They're not terrible.
Speaker 3: It's minus half a point, same thing to run a game.
Speaker 3: Not good, but not terrible, minus half a point. Again,
Speaker 3: these are the number one and number four defenses in
Speaker 3: the entire NFL, and they both played some better offenses
Speaker 3: in this league. It's not like they've had cake schedules
Speaker 3: in that perspective, so you can't even point to that.
Speaker 3: They're just really fucking good. They're well coached, they have
Speaker 3: a lot of fucking talent, and like I said, you know,
Speaker 3: the over probably ticked up with the like Longhorn said,
Speaker 3: the receivers coming back, even with you know this awesome
Speaker 3: De Dever defense coming in there. And don't ever forget,
Speaker 3: don't ever forget both these quarterbacks, I mean, Boonecks especially,
Speaker 3: can throw you a pick six that'll get you over
Speaker 3: forty and a half, real fucking quick in an NFL game.
Speaker 3: That's almost guaranteed if that happens. So, and you're right,
Speaker 3: long Horn, he's terrible on the road. He's bad almost
Speaker 3: all the time. Throw on the road against a great defense.
Speaker 3: I couldn't back him either. So I don't disagree with
Speaker 3: your play, just busting your balls. I don't have anything
Speaker 3: on this game. But if I had to, I would
Speaker 3: definitely lean Houston and the Ovah their kids, which would
Speaker 3: be again not not supported by the way, but my
Speaker 3: numbers supported in the market supports. So in forty and
Speaker 3: a half, that's just so fucking dude.
Speaker 4: So it's a little number.
Speaker 3: Again, his offenses are you know, dog shit.
Speaker 4: So when it's when it's six to three at halftime, though,
Speaker 4: it's a that's a big hill to climb.
Speaker 3: It's a big hill to climb, especially with those two quarters.
Speaker 3: But we've seen, we've seen both those quarterbacks go nuts
Speaker 3: so in the fourth quarter too, so they're weird like that.
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on. Actually I want to I
Speaker 3: do want to check that real quick. Let's see where
Speaker 3: both those quarterbacks are, just out of curiosity.
Speaker 4: Where they are.
Speaker 3: See uh bo next, he's actually sixteenth cps, so he's
Speaker 3: right on average, whereas our boy he's thirteen. So really
Speaker 3: the quarterbacks haven't been playing as far as that metrics
Speaker 3: terribly overall. But man, they here's the problem with both
Speaker 3: those offits. They have no sustain success rate. Just to
Speaker 3: explain it to you, boys and girls, it comes from
Speaker 3: sustaining drives sustained drives are basically like any drive that's
Speaker 3: gonna last you know, eight or more plays in the NFL.
Speaker 3: I think it's ten in college, eight in the NFL.
Speaker 3: That's really where that great comes from. So although success
Speaker 3: rates are not great, both of them have a closer
Speaker 3: to positive EPA than they probably probably should, simply because
Speaker 3: they both have explosive play you know, capability in them.
Speaker 3: We've seen the Broncos score how many bomb touchdown you
Speaker 3: know what I'm saying, Like big, big plays down the field.
Speaker 3: They'll do nothing bow Nicks with dirt two balls go
Speaker 3: three and out, three and out, three out, and all
Speaker 3: of a sudden boom port and something fifty yard touchdown whatever,
Speaker 3: like you know, they'll bust or run. Something will happen.
Speaker 4: Like it's usually a run because if there's a deep
Speaker 4: bomb shot by bow Knicks, he overthrows about three yards.
Speaker 4: So it's a look if he ever, if.
Speaker 3: He ever figures that out, it doesn't necessarily have to
Speaker 3: bomb the throw, but like he throws the part. You know,
Speaker 3: Sean Payton calls the perfect play.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a short pass that turns into something.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's never like like four point seven.
Speaker 4: So whenever he drops back and launches one, I'm like,
Speaker 4: well that's fucking what's the next down? What do we
Speaker 4: doing on the next down?
Speaker 3: Just to present perspective what I was talking about. So
Speaker 3: twenty fifth to twenty six in success right, However, both
Speaker 3: of them, the Broncos are plus zero point six eight
Speaker 3: ep Houston's point three. You don't get plus. The only
Speaker 3: other offense down there in that territory that's actually plus
Speaker 3: is Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is actually twenty seven success
Speaker 3: rate because they don't have a lot of long successful
Speaker 3: drives either, a lot of big plays Baker makes. You know,
Speaker 3: it's those kind of officers have that explosive capability to them.
Speaker 4: So it's hard to have explosive plays against the Houston
Speaker 4: defense and.
Speaker 3: The Denver defense. So again it all leans to an
Speaker 3: under from me. My numbers says slightly over the market degrees.
Speaker 4: I don't know.
Speaker 3: I wouldn't bet it, but it is what it is. Carl,
Speaker 3: let's move one of those Pittsburgh Steelers. Fuck yeah, hosting
Speaker 3: those Indianapolis Colts. Oh okay, let's look at the preseason
Speaker 3: line on this one. Yeah wrong, I was I had
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh minus five Green nerd Vegas had a minus three
Speaker 3: and a half. We both get a big fat f
Speaker 3: although Vegas has beat me by point and a half
Speaker 3: because Andy's now minus three. Got something your boy, three
Speaker 3: point doh, this is your spot, baby, I got a
Speaker 3: danger zone, I got a big dig I gotta sound
Speaker 3: of what I got coming to me right.
Speaker 4: Yeah, No, we're not hitting any of those this week.
Speaker 4: And you know to that point, this is the.
Speaker 3: Perfect trap, damn it, Baltimore.
Speaker 4: This is the perfect trap spot for for Indy. They
Speaker 4: haven't had a hiccup yet. They're due for a hiccup.
Speaker 4: Been saying that for a while, going on the road
Speaker 4: to a team coming off an embarrassing primetime loss. This
Speaker 4: is literally another perfect spot. But I'm just not doing anymore.
Speaker 4: I'm just not doing it until I'm gonna stick. I'm
Speaker 4: gonna stick true to the riding, riding the current whatever
Speaker 4: it is, like, I just and I've got no reason
Speaker 4: on this current wave of Indiana, Indie, Indiana of Indy
Speaker 4: to to not ride them. I've got no current wave
Speaker 4: to go on Pittsburgh an the spots because recently it
Speaker 4: just ain't fucking working. So prove me wrong, and and
Speaker 4: then maybe I'll start changing my mind a couple a
Speaker 4: couple of wins, but no, until then, fuck off. Give
Speaker 4: me Indy, especially at three. I know there was some
Speaker 4: three and a half. It's kind of doing this little
Speaker 4: you know, back and forth, back and forth. Co depends
Speaker 4: on where you want to get it at. You know,
Speaker 4: if you like Pittsburgh, you better get the three and
Speaker 4: a half because there's probably some available. If you like
Speaker 4: any then certainly obviously get the three and a half
Speaker 4: on the board that I see now, But there was
Speaker 4: probably plenty of available earlier in the week, so.
Speaker 3: So it could definitely be three and a half.
Speaker 4: They had the perfect Pittsburgh last week had the perfect opportunity,
Speaker 4: another great spot in primetime. You're up double digits at halftime,
Speaker 4: if you have even an average defense to slightly above
Speaker 4: average defense, that's over. You can turn your TV off,
Speaker 4: you can go to bed, count your money. It's over.
Speaker 4: They got not only did they not get the cover,
Speaker 4: getting plus three and a half three three and a half,
Speaker 4: they lost the game by ten. Like this is They're
Speaker 4: a bad, bad, bad, bad, bad bad bad defense. They're
Speaker 4: not good. So yeah, there's no way, man, I just
Speaker 4: this is this is the new NFL man in the
Speaker 4: new NFL, you don't. You don't just keep banging your
Speaker 4: head against these fucking dogs that that can't fucking bark,
Speaker 4: and I'm not doing it. Toman proved to me that
Speaker 4: you've got a little bark in you until then I'm out.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we said four and three last week. Since twenty
Speaker 3: twenty one, four and four now as a dog three
Speaker 3: or less at home, He's just another coach that's basically
Speaker 3: the average fit at three points or less of any
Speaker 3: coach in the NFL.
Speaker 4: The highest paid defense in the NFL brought in Jail
Speaker 4: and Ramsey, all these pass rushers. They can'st off anybody
Speaker 4: fucking like fire fire your fucking Devince coordinator, like do
Speaker 4: something you can't just well, let's just go out there
Speaker 4: and play another game and see if we turn around. No,
Speaker 4: you you got Baltimore reeling, You got them on their heels.
Speaker 4: Now they're gonna be They're coming for you. They're is
Speaker 4: gonna start stacking wins after wins, and they are coming
Speaker 4: for you. You got to get this ship fixed or
Speaker 4: they're gonna suck you up. And you better hope that
Speaker 4: you got a wald card spot available available to you.
Speaker 4: If Baltimore takes his division or if not, you talk
Speaker 4: about a colossal fucking crash. From three weeks ago, I
Speaker 4: was like, well, this is Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh's division. They're alsosly
Speaker 4: gonna win the division to where if they miss the playoffs.
Speaker 4: Oh man, you talk about a walk away season for
Speaker 4: Aaron Rodgers, this will be appic.
Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers or Aaron Rodgers talking about the press confidence asked,
Speaker 3: and you know what he thought about joining the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Speaker 5: Immediately regrets this decision, I mean not yet, like like
Speaker 5: if they like this is a spot, if they can
Speaker 5: if this is to save your fucking season, spot, if
Speaker 5: they if they can beat Indy, who, like we said,
Speaker 5: they're fucking dude, they're.
Speaker 4: So due to get their doors blown. I just I
Speaker 4: can't do it until I see it.
Speaker 3: And other than that, they've been and.
Speaker 4: They should have won that game or could have won
Speaker 4: that game, so like so like, I don't even consider
Speaker 4: that a hiccup. Now, I'm talking about a true hiccup
Speaker 4: where they go out and they score thirteen points, Daniel
Speaker 4: Daniel Jones throws two or three interceptions, A true hiccup.
Speaker 4: They haven't had that hey, well one one was like
Speaker 4: a like, you know, at the end of the game,
Speaker 4: kind of a you know your you're kind of fucked
Speaker 4: like really just one. It was really just one.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that was really their only if you grade out
Speaker 3: their game by game, that was their only game where
Speaker 3: they they didn't get you know, their average available yards.
Speaker 3: They didn't get fucking like all this studden are grade like,
Speaker 3: they just didn't perform that game. This is the only one,
Speaker 3: literally the only one, okay, on this one Poweranks and
Speaker 3: Noco Actually so this was and but the BBG does
Speaker 3: great out Andy, winning twenty seven to twenty two. That's
Speaker 3: under the fifty and a half. Look, I would be
Speaker 3: very surprised if this under hits. You've got a great
Speaker 3: offense versus shitty defense in the middle of the road
Speaker 3: offense versus Indy. The Indie defense, they're even a lower
Speaker 3: success rate the Pittsburgh. They're even worse than Pittsburgh. But
Speaker 3: Indy has a negative EPA for play on defense, which
Speaker 3: means they allow a lot of methodical drives, but they
Speaker 3: do not allow many explosive plays. So the under does
Speaker 3: have a chance here simply because of that. However, the
Speaker 3: look at Pittsburgh's offense. Aaron Rodgers grades up flat, the
Speaker 3: running game grades up flat. Daniel Jones gains Indiana. Jones
Speaker 3: gains a point and a half of the BBG versus
Speaker 3: the shitty defense and Indies running game, which has been
Speaker 3: on fire, it gains a half a point. And if
Speaker 3: you give that guy anything extra other than what he
Speaker 3: normally gets, good fucking luck. What does he got three
Speaker 3: games already with three fucking touchdowns? This dude talking about
Speaker 3: the MVP. He is literally the MVP of the league
Speaker 3: right now. And what's his name?
Speaker 4: The running back Taylor?
Speaker 3: Yes he is. I mean, he's literally the league MVP
Speaker 3: right now. He is the Cats. He is, he is
Speaker 3: what's carrying that offense. He is the fucking dude, he's
Speaker 3: one of last year.
Speaker 4: Okay, but but well all right, fine, but like what
Speaker 4: Taylor's been there for years, He's had he's had monster
Speaker 4: years before too, and without without Daniel Jones, they're not
Speaker 4: seven to one.
Speaker 3: So no, no, I'm not. I'm not just Daniel Jones. Well,
Speaker 3: he's had obviously the year of his fucking life.
Speaker 4: But this is this is why quarterbacks always been MVP
Speaker 4: and running backs don't, because because running backs can have
Speaker 4: a great year and you're fucking six and ten or whatever,
Speaker 4: you're six and seven, and so like that's why he'll
Speaker 4: get he'll get Offensive Player of the Year.
Speaker 3: Now, he'll never he's never had he'll never have a
Speaker 3: many touchdowns before. His yards per game like at the
Speaker 3: end of the season is probably gonna obviously gonna be
Speaker 3: his best season of all time. Yes, but again to
Speaker 3: your point, he also has a competent quarterback who's actually
Speaker 3: delivering footballs everywhere then allows the running game to work too.
Speaker 4: So they have no weakness. They just have no weakness.
Speaker 3: So like we've seen defenses, their defense sucks. Their defense
Speaker 3: is not playoff caliber. They're gonna get beat early in
Speaker 3: the playoffs there unless they can do something. Their defense
Speaker 3: is worse than Pittsburgh gres out worst in Pittsburgh's what
Speaker 3: is not good. Yes, it's not good, not good. But
Speaker 3: does it matter against this Pittsburgh offense. Probably not, because
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh's offense is very middling at best. So again I
Speaker 3: lean with you. Not gonna be a call for me.
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be surprised the underhits, although there is an
Speaker 3: avenue for it. Again, I got twenty seven to twenty two.
Speaker 3: You know, that's about I mean, it's a little bit
Speaker 3: plus game for any on the road as far as
Speaker 3: their points go, and they've been scoring thirty plus points
Speaker 3: a game. They're the number one scoring offense in the
Speaker 3: entire NFL. On the road, that dips a little bit.
Speaker 3: But again, the advantage they have a quarterback and running
Speaker 3: back should help them get close to that thirty points.
Speaker 3: And I don't know that Pittsburgh, even against the shitty defense,
Speaker 3: maybe they can score thirty.
Speaker 4: I don't know.
Speaker 3: You're gonna have to prove.
Speaker 4: It to me.
Speaker 3: But this is the spot. This is the This is
Speaker 3: not just Tomlin. This is a spot. Like you said,
Speaker 3: it's a huge motivational spot for Pittsburgh. We've got to
Speaker 3: get this ship right.
Speaker 4: Well, listen, we've just talked about you got to fix
Speaker 4: the defense. We want Baltimore be one of the worst
Speaker 4: defenses in the league. And the last two games, I
Speaker 4: mean that this game is only in the third quarter,
Speaker 4: seems like they fix their defense. At least they've you know,
Speaker 4: right at it enough to where with a good offense
Speaker 4: you can kind of start stacking up with uh damn it,
Speaker 4: Oh Chicago, and they shut them down. They gave us
Speaker 4: six points in the first quarter and it was basically
Speaker 4: a shutdown after that. So I just yeah, so you know,
Speaker 4: like you can do it, like if you have good
Speaker 4: players in their defense, which Pittsburgh fucking does. I'm not
Speaker 4: an idiot. I can see your roster. I can count
Speaker 4: pro bowlers. Okay, I'm not stupid. I know your defense
Speaker 4: is better than this. Fix it fucking just don't fix
Speaker 4: it this week because I'm probably gonna be.
Speaker 3: On Indy but you but you know that the disparity
Speaker 3: on the coaching staff between the Baltimore coaching staff and
Speaker 3: I mean what everybody, what everybodyames is a great coach
Speaker 3: of Tom, which he's really not.
Speaker 4: You're not. You're not twenty years deep in your career
Speaker 4: and you don't no shit about coaching defense. He knows
Speaker 4: how to coach defense, and that now I don't know
Speaker 4: X and those fix it you're you're the twenty year
Speaker 4: veteran coach.
Speaker 3: Fix it all right, Let's move on to something they
Speaker 3: can't be fixed, and that's those ten.
Speaker 4: N the perfect segue that is no lie oh.
Speaker 3: And they're playing those Sandy Diego superages. Thank you for
Speaker 3: my only win last week San Diego.
Speaker 4: That game they can't even they can't even get called
Speaker 4: LA when they give you your only fucking NFL win
Speaker 4: in the week.
Speaker 3: That's distress, because look, I did win, but I'm just
Speaker 3: gonna say it was one of the We talked about
Speaker 3: this all the time. There was one moment in that game,
Speaker 3: and it was early. It was early. It was their
Speaker 3: second drive and Herbert throws up the zero zero. Herbert
Speaker 3: throws a pick six and we're down seven to nothing.
Speaker 3: I'm like, mother fucker, And it got replayed and it
Speaker 3: got called in plate correctly. He didn't quite catch it,
Speaker 3: and for them to overturn a pick six, you know
Speaker 3: it has to be indisputable. It was indisputable. But then
Speaker 3: it was still like third and eighteen. They looked like
Speaker 3: shit through two drives already, couldn't get a first down,
Speaker 3: and Herbert throws a beautiful ball to your boy, Keenan
Speaker 3: Allen over the middle, twenty yards first down. They go
Speaker 3: score the touchdown, and it's fucking Katie bar the door
Speaker 3: from there. It's that one little moment, that one little
Speaker 3: moment in a game where it just he goes from
Speaker 3: being a struggle all night. She just fucking cruising to
Speaker 3: a victory is something brought my way, thankfully to God
Speaker 3: in that one. But anyway, I need a lot of
Speaker 3: breaks in this one's they get to face those mighty Titans. Baby,
Speaker 3: and this came his kid continued to move. Although I
Speaker 3: wrote down the spread, I guess it was a joke.
Speaker 3: I wrote to my diary at eight and a half,
Speaker 3: we're up to nine and a half goddamn points that
Speaker 3: they're laying in Tennessee, Longhorn.
Speaker 4: Take it away, much take away here. This is the
Speaker 4: free square. There's no reason to ever there's no reason
Speaker 4: to bet on Tennessee. They you know, we thought we
Speaker 4: had the dead coach bounce didn't happen. Then if it's
Speaker 4: not gonna happen, then congratulations, NFL betters. You have a
Speaker 4: free square to bet against this Tennessee team for the
Speaker 4: rest of the goddamn season. Because here's what's gonna happen.
Speaker 4: They're they're gonna keep losing. They're inth on offense, they're
Speaker 4: gonna quit on defense. Jeffrey Simmons their best offensive player out,
Speaker 4: the cornerback they signed from Kansas City snead out. They're starting. Look,
Speaker 4: the quit has happened. This is this is how the
Speaker 4: this is how this goes. When you are a one
Speaker 4: in seventeen and you're two and six against the spread
Speaker 4: and things just keep going to ship, it's just gonna
Speaker 4: just steam roll downhill for you. Now you got a
Speaker 4: team coming in with Harball who is uh they are
Speaker 4: they're five and three. They had they had a hiccup
Speaker 4: there for the last the last month where they where
Speaker 4: they it got derailed for for a little bit. Harball
Speaker 4: got it right back on track. Joe Walt came back.
Speaker 4: That solidified the offensive line enough. They still got some injuries,
Speaker 4: but enough for a Harball team to get it to
Speaker 4: get it going. And then and then the kicker for me,
Speaker 4: and why why I'm so heavy on the Chargers is
Speaker 4: Harball is five and oh going going west to east
Speaker 4: as a favorite, like this is just a sweet spot
Speaker 4: for him as a Charger. Five and oh is a
Speaker 4: Charger And you might be like, well, that's not that's
Speaker 4: not a lot. That's just as a Charger. Well in
Speaker 4: his career going back to San fran and the Chargers
Speaker 4: east to West or sorry, west to East as a
Speaker 4: favorite fifteen to four against the spread, like he just
Speaker 4: has and he's a great and it makes sense logically
Speaker 4: because he's a great coach. He understands these situational spots
Speaker 4: and knows how to how to prepare his team the
Speaker 4: proper way. Not let them have that that lull that
Speaker 4: whatever whatever it is that teams go east to west
Speaker 4: to east and have that that you know, lackluster effort.
Speaker 4: He kicks. He gets some out of it. So it's
Speaker 4: just a smash squad. Yeah, And whatever he does, it's working.
Speaker 4: Keep doing it. Take the free square. It's under ten.
Speaker 4: This is just I mean, they're gonna win by twenty.
Speaker 4: Oh you know what, since I don't. I don't have
Speaker 4: any sounders this week. I don't have any danger zones,
Speaker 4: I don't have any big dicks. So on no, I'm
Speaker 4: I'm hitting the ladder. I'm hitting the ladder, and I'm
Speaker 4: still challenging you to find my ladder. Drop that that
Speaker 4: that we can use. But I'm laddering this up. What's
Speaker 4: the current line? You're you pick whatever you want as
Speaker 4: a drop. You do whatever you want, and we'll get
Speaker 4: that at some point going forward. But I want a ladder.
Speaker 4: This to one unit on the chargers at the current
Speaker 4: line and then I want I want half units on
Speaker 4: two ladder rungs up, so if we need to do
Speaker 4: it later, we can.
Speaker 3: But yeah, I'll get to the second. So I don't
Speaker 3: have on the board for the ladder.
Speaker 4: They're gonna win by twenty, so it's it's it's fine letter.
Speaker 3: All right. I'll look it up for a second, all right, Okay,
Speaker 3: so I don't have a lot.
Speaker 4: I think. I think thirteen and a half and sixteen
Speaker 4: and a half are a good good letter notches, all right.
Speaker 3: Like the power rankings have the charges here, man, the
Speaker 3: numbers can't catch up. They can't catch up, like and
Speaker 3: I think about power Ringkings. Now, I've never had a
Speaker 3: team graded as lowest Tennessee, which is weird because they
Speaker 3: actually have one win, but they're so in aft on
Speaker 3: offense they it defies logic, honestly. And look, this is
Speaker 3: not a great matchup. Well it's a it's a decent
Speaker 3: matchup for your boy Herbs. He gains a point, but
Speaker 3: it's not a great matchup with the running game. But
Speaker 3: it's not a good matchup. It's just a flat matchup
Speaker 3: all the way around for Tennessee, which means they're gonna
Speaker 3: do what they're gonna do, which they average thirteen points
Speaker 3: a game.
Speaker 4: Dude, they're starting with that. Look like, here's the deal,
Speaker 4: cam Ward and God bless him, like this this is
Speaker 4: this is the worst he's ever gonna look in his career.
Speaker 4: So he just he'll be better, but we hope. So
Speaker 4: he's got to he and when they go three rod
Speaker 4: receiver set him a rookie is two of the three
Speaker 4: receivers are fucking rookies? Like, how was it? This can't happen.
Speaker 4: This just cannot abide. You cannot do this to this
Speaker 4: will not aid. This will not abide in the NFL.
Speaker 4: You how do you put your number one pick for
Speaker 4: your future of your franchise and you roll out this bullship?
Speaker 4: This is god awful man.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I've got I do have tennis as
Speaker 3: scoring nineteen in this game. I don't know how that happened.
Speaker 1: Six.
Speaker 4: It's a Harbert actually throws the pick six this week. Yeah,
Speaker 4: but it won't matter. They'll still win by twenty.
Speaker 3: Forty three and a half is the total I've got
Speaker 3: it going over. There's lots of weather coming in. I
Speaker 3: don't trust that total at all. I think this is
Speaker 3: gonna be nasty now for what it's for what it's
Speaker 3: worth before the buy home dog, which that's what Tennessee
Speaker 3: is fifty against the spread. However, I did look up.
Speaker 3: I was like, okay, but what about big home dogs
Speaker 3: for the buy like, does that make a difference? It
Speaker 3: absolutely does. That cuts down to fifty to fifty. So
Speaker 3: it's basically Quinn flip pick at that. If it's seven
Speaker 3: or more. I'm not scared of that at all either.
Speaker 3: I would link with you with LA. I don't trust
Speaker 3: my numbers saying it's gonna go over. I don't see
Speaker 3: how Tennessee scores nineteen points.
Speaker 4: I think seventy percent chance of win, chance of rain,
Speaker 4: excuse me, and chance to win at least the seventy
Speaker 4: percent chance to win. At least.
Speaker 3: It's the hurricane remnants coming off that too, So will
Speaker 3: it will be win, it will be rained, it'll be nasty.
Speaker 3: The Chargers are built to play with that with their running.
Speaker 4: Game, I know, but people don't think that. That's the thing.
Speaker 4: I think that people think, oh man, that's a West
Speaker 4: Coast team coming coming to the cold and the rain,
Speaker 4: Like no, that's what Harball built his team for this,
Speaker 4: Like they're gonna they're gonna shit stomp this team in
Speaker 4: the ring.
Speaker 3: I've got the Chargers scoring in twenty seven, so I
Speaker 3: think that's probably holding true. I don't say how Tennessee
Speaker 3: gets to nineteen at all, so you're probably.
Speaker 4: Right twenty seven to ten and I cash all ladders.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you're probably right on that one. All right,
Speaker 3: Let's move on to those the Detroit Alliance holders in
Speaker 3: those Minnesota Vikings another team. Do they have a quarterback?
Speaker 3: I don't know. I don't know. Let's see on the
Speaker 3: preseason lines on this one, because I did grade it
Speaker 3: with your boy JJ McCarthy in.
Speaker 4: There, so well he's in there.
Speaker 3: Fair. Yeah, I had them five point favorites. Vegas had
Speaker 3: them four and a half point favorites. So I'm gonna
Speaker 3: claim victory here because Detroit's eight and a half point
Speaker 3: favorites now, so we were both off considerably. However, I
Speaker 3: was closer to right than Vegas was. It's just it's
Speaker 3: another actually actually just like eight point seventy five at
Speaker 3: this point, lots of nines are starting to pop, and
Speaker 3: eight and a halfs a heavy juice. It's moving to nine.
Speaker 3: That's my point, boys and girls, Longhorn tells how your
Speaker 3: Minnesota Vikings are gonna start their march towards their division titles.
Speaker 3: I think you had them.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's not gonna happen. This is this is jump.
Speaker 4: This is jumping off point. This is jumping off point.
Speaker 4: I'm heavy, heavy.
Speaker 3: Four weeks ago.
Speaker 4: But all right, yeah it was it's I mean yeah,
Speaker 4: when he looked like shit, like that's what we can
Speaker 4: review my bad calls at the end of the year.
Speaker 4: It's fine, let's just let it play out. Yeah, Detroit,
Speaker 4: this is this is just such a smash Detroit spot.
Speaker 4: And like I've said in the past, and I'm riding
Speaker 4: these waves. I'm done trying to like get cute, trying
Speaker 4: to find perfect spots to go against a way like what, no,
Speaker 4: when's the wave gonna crash? I'm gonna catch you. I'm
Speaker 4: done with this ship. I'm riding these fucking waves out.
Speaker 4: That's gonna be my new thing. You gotta have a
Speaker 4: reason to bet against Detroit. You definitely gotta have a
Speaker 4: reason to bet against them at home. Seventy ross the board,
Speaker 4: no matter what metric you're looking at, there seventy ats
Speaker 4: team and all the reasons in this game point to me,
Speaker 4: fading Minnesota. You got Christian Darris a their left tackle,
Speaker 4: all Pro left tackle out, and we've seen around this
Speaker 4: league this gets so understated how important a true all
Speaker 4: pro left tackle is. We see it with we see
Speaker 4: it with the Giants. Huh you No, not by me,
Speaker 4: but it gets it gets undervided around the league. We've
Speaker 4: seen it with what's the team?
Speaker 3: We just of the season. People don't pay attention. It
Speaker 3: just gets lost in the like, oh, this guy's out.
Speaker 3: Who cares? There's a million plays, Like people get to
Speaker 3: sensitized to injuries. Like early on it was like, oh
Speaker 3: my god, this guy's out, but like by week five
Speaker 3: they're like, yeah, everybody I know.
Speaker 4: But but even with me, who gets into the rosters,
Speaker 4: Like even I'm amazed at how the difference between a
Speaker 4: true all Pro left tackle for whatever reason, it's Baltimore stop.
Speaker 3: Is that possible?
Speaker 4: Can Yeah? I think you got it because Miami can't score.
Speaker 4: But yeah, like when your left eckles out and he's
Speaker 4: an All Pro, it's just disaster time. Detroit is getting
Speaker 4: three players back in the secondary branch off of the
Speaker 4: suspension for for beating the fuck out of Juju the
Speaker 4: other safety is coming back off of injury, and of
Speaker 4: course Terry and Arnold are cornerback who's not good. But
Speaker 4: I mean it's he's a starter at least, So there's that,
Speaker 4: and let's see, Yeah, there's everything points to Detroit. Let's
Speaker 4: just leave it at that, and you've lost probably the
Speaker 4: the teaser spot if it's if it's at nine in
Speaker 4: most books, you you know, you lost being able to
Speaker 4: tease them down to the two and a half. But
Speaker 4: who knows, maybe people will come in on Minnesota and
Speaker 4: maybe they'll respect the defense who's not that's not been
Speaker 4: as good. So I don't know. Remember we saw we
Speaker 4: saw Detroit beat the fuck out of this Minnesota team
Speaker 4: last year with Sam Darnold with the season on the
Speaker 4: line for Minnesota and Detroit just blew their doors off.
Speaker 4: So like, it's just come on this now that is
Speaker 4: Jabs ghost. Now it's JJ McCarthy. You can get the
Speaker 4: fuck out of here, like and watch this be the
Speaker 4: one time that that JJ McCarthy plays his fucking best
Speaker 4: game and keeps it and just fucks me all which
Speaker 4: way he's gonna suck all year, continue to suck out
Speaker 4: of this game and plays this one balls out Game
Speaker 4: of the Year. No, I don't think so. Detroit wins
Speaker 4: by ten plus, all.
Speaker 3: Right, So I got your ladder results in here. So
Speaker 3: you said thirteen and a half and six and a half,
Speaker 3: thirteen and a half half a unit, yeah, one thirty
Speaker 3: eight six and a half half unit plus one.
Speaker 4: Okay, yeah, I like that.
Speaker 3: I like that, all right. Yeah, So if they went
Speaker 3: by twenty, you clean the fuck up, all right? And
Speaker 3: this one I don't have anything, but I do have.
Speaker 3: You said you gotta have a reason, you gotta go.
Speaker 3: You gott a fucking reason to bet I'm in this.
Speaker 3: I'll give you two fucking reasons right here. Since twenty
Speaker 3: twenty one, coming off the bot in your home fan
Speaker 3: twenty one, twenty seven and two forty three point eight
Speaker 3: percent ats since when since twenty twenty one post covids
Speaker 3: in this new NFL crazy era. And then I said, okay,
Speaker 3: what about big favorites?
Speaker 1: What about big favorites?
Speaker 3: So since twenty twenty one, coming off the by home
Speaker 3: favorite of seven or more even worse, eight twelve and
Speaker 3: two ats forty percent. Now, if you have Detroit lefting
Speaker 3: your survivor twenty two and oh, straight up, that's pretty good.
Speaker 3: That's pretty good.
Speaker 4: So, yeah, they ain't losing now, they're not gonna lose.
Speaker 3: But if there's ever a spot that we keep me
Speaker 3: off of betting something, definitely fair enough, fair enough favorite
Speaker 3: for ball. That's the only reason why I don't have
Speaker 3: no I have no reason to bet on Minnesota. That's
Speaker 3: the only reason why I would not bet Detroit.
Speaker 4: Oh JJ O little JJ.
Speaker 3: He's coming. He's coming from vengeance baby. All right, moving
Speaker 3: on to those New York football giants, their hustling Sand
Speaker 3: Francisco forty nine ers. Let's see, in the preseason this one, I.
Speaker 4: Had San frand minus six.
Speaker 3: Vegas said it three and a half for two and
Speaker 3: a half. Vegas beat me badly on this one. I
Speaker 3: was really down. It wasn't that I was wrong being
Speaker 3: down on the Giants. I was so far high on
Speaker 3: Sant Franz clearly broll. Now we don't have brock Party
Speaker 3: fair enough whatever. I'll take the loss on this one
Speaker 3: two and a half. I think that's still good Longhorn
Speaker 3: and the money, but the money is starting to move
Speaker 3: back on San France.
Speaker 4: Song cause Party for sure out. Yes, he's out, Okay,
Speaker 4: all right.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so it's it's it's really two point seven five
Speaker 3: because it's juice two and a half everywhere, it's probably
Speaker 3: gonna move to the three, back to the three. It
Speaker 3: was to open up the game game time. So if
Speaker 3: you like saying, Frank, get him now, like the Giants.
Speaker 4: Just wait a minute at well, look in this game.
Speaker 4: This this is the head scratcher to me, and I'm
Speaker 4: gonna I'm gonna listen to your handicap. But but I
Speaker 4: I've already talked about during this year. I do not
Speaker 4: bet against San Francisco coming off a loss. It's just
Speaker 4: that's not the spot, and I refuse to do it anymore.
Speaker 4: I think it was the Jacksonville game that I learned
Speaker 4: this hard lesson earlier in this year, and turns out
Speaker 4: it wasn't just a one time thing. This is kind
Speaker 4: of like a thing that they do coming off a loss.
Speaker 4: So yeah, so I'm not doing anymore. So I'm sticking
Speaker 4: to that that But why is it two and a half?
Speaker 4: Like like the Giants who've lost, they lost Skataboo, who's
Speaker 4: kind of like you know me, touchdowns I do have.
Speaker 4: That dude was like their touchdown maker machine.
Speaker 3: So he ran carry How do we replace that holy shit.
Speaker 4: Yeah, how do you replace this ten touchdowns that he had? Like,
Speaker 4: I mean, you got to replace that, So I mean
Speaker 4: like it's it's my handicap. So go ahead, because I
Speaker 4: want to see, like, are you on the New York here?
Speaker 3: Fuck no, san Fran, San Frank, san Fran. Now I've
Speaker 3: got san Frian winning twenty five nineteen. That would be
Speaker 3: under forty eight and a half. I think that's fair enough,
Speaker 3: simple because this is not a good matchup for either
Speaker 3: quarterback Fat Jones or Jackson dark It. But jihns Lou's
Speaker 3: half a point through the running game and again that's
Speaker 3: graded wiskettaball in there the whole time. Again, three hand
Speaker 3: for three point nine yards of carry. He literally didn't
Speaker 3: matter in the running game. However, here's what I will say.
Speaker 3: I've been watching the NFL a long time. What that
Speaker 3: dude did matter was he was the fucking dude for
Speaker 3: that team who was their heart and soul. He's the
Speaker 3: one that kept everybody up in the sideline. I've seen
Speaker 3: so many films of him pomp the guys up, telling
Speaker 3: Jackson that I fucking gotcha fight like that dude was
Speaker 3: literally the heart and soul of that team. So and
Speaker 3: that's for a team that's already dead for all intents
Speaker 3: and purposes, they're dead, is over, it never really started, and.
Speaker 4: They can't stop the run like on on defense they're horrible.
Speaker 3: So yeah, the other part of his handicap, this is
Speaker 3: a c MAT game against two point three two points
Speaker 3: to the BPG. He has got to be a c
Speaker 3: MAT game anytime it's a game, I'm rolling with it
Speaker 3: with San Fran. The Giants are second to last and
Speaker 3: defision and defensive rushing success rate. So this matchup through
Speaker 3: the game script is perfect Mac and their scheme and
Speaker 3: the Giants sucked, so it's the perfect matchup.
Speaker 4: Okay, So so why because it's this line tick to
Speaker 4: three and now it's is a curt and now it's
Speaker 4: down Like they're not these bookies are not our friends.
Speaker 4: They're none of the business giving us free squares and
Speaker 4: free money. What are we missing this? The worries the
Speaker 4: fuck out of me because we're both like slam dunk scent.
Speaker 3: Because it's a bad matchup for Matt Jones. And that's
Speaker 3: the only that's the only part of my handicap that says,
Speaker 3: as long as Pat Jones is to fuck me. I
Speaker 3: feel good about San Frank because the Giants have actually
Speaker 3: been okay against the past, which is why he's.
Speaker 4: He shouldn't matter if they can control the run exactly.
Speaker 4: So I just I don't know. It feels too easy,
Speaker 4: and it makes me. That makes me worried. That's why
Speaker 4: I haven't plugged it in yet because I'm like, what
Speaker 4: am I missing? But yeah, I'm with you. I'm at
Speaker 4: two and a half. Come on, man, that's that's let's
Speaker 4: let's get that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's no other way I can play this one again.
Speaker 3: I tease long her Rest got about three point nine
Speaker 3: yards for carry. Look, he's a jag. As far as
Speaker 3: running back. I hope that he comes back. I hope.
Speaker 3: And now, this injury was a lot worse than what
Speaker 3: they thought it was at the beginning. It ruptured attendon.
Speaker 3: It tore a bunch of shit up in there.
Speaker 4: Of course, it fucking ruptured tend as it was turned sideways.
Speaker 3: He already ran like a five five forty. So oh, look,
Speaker 3: I love the kid.
Speaker 4: He'll still be fine. And but like I said at
Speaker 4: the beginning of the year, he has.
Speaker 3: To be factor in the passing game.
Speaker 4: He has to be he has to be a one
Speaker 4: to two punch with another Jamar Gibbs type guy. Like,
Speaker 4: if you get the the other guy, even coming off injuries,
Speaker 4: Scattaboy's gonna be that dude. You're gonna have something there.
Speaker 4: But they don't. They don't have the other guy.
Speaker 3: Well that's and that's the thing that makes me more
Speaker 3: confident in San frank because it's a bad matchup for
Speaker 3: dark in the first place. But secondly, if you look
Speaker 3: at what Scatabo's where his most effective plays were, it
Speaker 3: was all in passing. If he looked at in Arizona State,
Speaker 3: I mean, I know he ran great Arizona State, but
Speaker 3: remember the Texas game.
Speaker 4: He's fucking incredible in the passing game. Incredibly.
Speaker 3: When did that game turn? When Scatibo caught that long
Speaker 3: fucking ball down the sideline and all of a sudden,
Speaker 3: Arizona State got back in that fucking game. And then
Speaker 3: he started to roll against one of the best rushing
Speaker 3: defenses in all the country. Against Texast he couldn't do
Speaker 3: shit for three quarters, but he caught that one ball
Speaker 3: a third whatever. Then after that the momentum started to turn.
Speaker 3: He started getting legs underneath him, and that's but him
Speaker 3: in the passing game is absolutely an X factor. They're
Speaker 3: gonna miss him terribly, and that jackson darscan missed terribly
Speaker 3: in that it's it's not a good thing for young
Speaker 3: quarterback to lose his safety to liking like that. So yeah,
Speaker 3: I think first game without him, they're gonna struggle.
Speaker 4: But well, since they're gonna win about three maybe four
Speaker 4: games this year, they'll have a good chance to go
Speaker 4: get a running back in the draft another like another.
Speaker 3: One probably, So all right, let's move on to my
Speaker 3: lost Vegas or our lost Vegas Raiders, my Jacksonville Jaguars.
Speaker 4: You can have both these teams, all right.
Speaker 3: In the preseason, I have Jacksonville minus three here, Vegas
Speaker 3: in Las Vegas minus one and a half. So I
Speaker 3: was right. Vegas is strong because it's actually Jacksonville minus three,
Speaker 3: exactly the number. So thank you on that one. Now,
Speaker 3: this is ticking down, though, Longhorn, money coming in, money
Speaker 3: coming in on the Raiders everywhere's plus three. It's minus
Speaker 3: one sixteen or more minus one twenty. It's already two
Speaker 3: and a half at circa. Some of the Sharper books
Speaker 3: are already moving to two and a half, two and
Speaker 3: a half and half kings money coming down the Raiders
Speaker 3: many coming into the.
Speaker 4: I mean, which number do I get, because like, I
Speaker 4: think I'm gonna let this just be a numbers play
Speaker 4: for me, because I don't know what the fuck I get.
Speaker 4: I know what that's the I know currently which at
Speaker 4: three you're you're kind of like good luck, but like
Speaker 4: it opened at three and a half, and some of
Speaker 4: the contests at three and a half locked currently some
Speaker 4: of the lines are two and a half Jacksonville. Just dude,
Speaker 4: I mean, I think I've just let the line Like
Speaker 4: if at two, at two and a half, I guess Jacksonville,
Speaker 4: at three and a half, I guess Vegas. I just
Speaker 4: don't how do you trust either one of these teams? Like, like,
Speaker 4: would it shock me if Vegas comes out after a
Speaker 4: bye figures out that that that oh yeah, remember that
Speaker 4: guy we drafted that that gent game. Okay, But I'm
Speaker 4: just specifically with the Raids because like the jack I
Speaker 4: think we know we're gonna get with Jacksonville a quarterback
Speaker 4: that's that's overrated, that that's gonna make some mental mistakes
Speaker 4: and just kind of like leave you one any more. Okay,
Speaker 4: fair enough, okay, fair enough. But he's in the game.
Speaker 4: He's gonna leave you one any more. He's gonna make
Speaker 4: some miss like just head scratching mistake, some miss throws.
Speaker 4: I think I know what I'm gonna get from Jacksonville.
Speaker 4: But what if what if off the buy that Pete
Speaker 4: Carroll you know, gets this running game going. Gino Smith
Speaker 4: remembers that he's not the like thirtieth best quarterback in
Speaker 4: the league, and he's more like the fifteenth. Then then
Speaker 4: you've got value. Now the Max Crosby thing, I don't
Speaker 4: where let me go back to the is he's still questionable?
Speaker 3: He is?
Speaker 4: He is questionable, they man, he I think so too.
Speaker 4: So like look at three three and a half, I'm
Speaker 4: gonna probably bang in the Raiders at two and a half.
Speaker 4: You can talk me into Jacksonville. Yeah, if you can
Speaker 4: talk under a field goal you want. You don't gotta
Speaker 4: twist my arm to go against this shitty ass Raiders
Speaker 4: team a whole lot. So I'm kind of gonna let
Speaker 4: the number dictate my which way I go on this one?
Speaker 4: Most savious, all right.
Speaker 3: So no call by the power ringings here. I've got
Speaker 3: it going over. The forty four and a half total
Speaker 3: I actually feel kind of good about that one. Now
Speaker 3: the BBG has Jacksonville winning twenty six to twenty, I
Speaker 3: don't know. So it's literally, I don't know how many
Speaker 3: of these I've ever had. It's literally a flat matchup
Speaker 3: across the BPG. Both quarterbacks, both running backs. We're basically
Speaker 3: gonna get what we get. So this is more of
Speaker 3: a spot play for me here. That's why I like
Speaker 3: the Raiders.
Speaker 4: You got some trends, got some trends.
Speaker 3: They're both coming off of buy so I think, Okay,
Speaker 3: first off, what DoD the trends say? Secondly, does it
Speaker 3: match up with what we're presented from a cut because
Speaker 3: the BUYE to me is all about number one your roster,
Speaker 3: number two, well actually number one coaching number two year roster.
Speaker 3: Which coaching staff do I trust to make the adjustments
Speaker 3: off of? By more the guy that's been doing it
Speaker 3: for sixty fucking years or they got and it says
Speaker 3: duebo and just fucking got there. Probably he goes for
Speaker 3: sixty years.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Secondly, I got like you mentioned a veteran quarterback who's
Speaker 3: played like absolute dog shit. Gina Smith is the twenty
Speaker 3: eighth CPOA plus or EPA quarterback. By the way, we're
Speaker 3: talking about Browning and Flacco not being too far apart
Speaker 3: or you know, Browning's twenty eighth Flaco or brownis twenty nine,
Speaker 3: Flacoes thirtyeth great Mico always like wins games and puts
Speaker 3: up shitty numbers.
Speaker 4: Like Faco so much. But like that's why you can't
Speaker 4: always just go by that.
Speaker 3: Well no, but like not one metric, but still like
Speaker 3: he wins games, but he just never puts up good numbers.
Speaker 3: It's just his thing. But either way, but coming off
Speaker 3: of bye and you're the away favorite since twenty twenty one,
Speaker 3: twelve fourteen and two forty six point two percent, not
Speaker 3: a majorly strong trend but decent enough. But coming off
Speaker 3: the Bay and you're the home dog, which is Raiders
Speaker 3: thirteen nine to one fifty nine point one percent. So
Speaker 3: now we've got a negative trend. It's a very positive trend.
Speaker 3: That's plus two points on the Raiders ats and an
Speaker 3: Amazon A four and a half. We're sitting at three,
Speaker 3: look and they're ten at thirteen. Straight up, this is
Speaker 3: absolutely game that I was surprised you didn't have the
Speaker 3: sounder on this, and be honest, absolutely game the Raiders
Speaker 3: could steal. You know, dude games, how.
Speaker 4: Do you hear the sounder with fucking Geno Smith Pete Carroll?
Speaker 3: Well, yes, you know, systems bad, but Pete Carroll should
Speaker 3: be able to make some adjustments through this defense to
Speaker 3: find some way to get better through.
Speaker 4: Remember when I said I'm done trying to guess and
Speaker 4: bet into when the wave is going to crest, I'm
Speaker 4: done with that in this NFL. I mean, look, Baltimore
Speaker 4: is blowing the fuck.
Speaker 3: I guess in both ways because like it's okay which which.
Speaker 4: Wave is right? Which which makes it a stick wave
Speaker 4: that has not.
Speaker 3: Like they have not earned all these wins, is that
Speaker 3: gonna crash? The Raiders haven't exactly earned every loss.
Speaker 4: Which makes it a stay away, which you just don't.
Speaker 4: You just don't. You just don't better, You don't have
Speaker 4: you don't have the better a game unless you're in
Speaker 4: a contest. True.
Speaker 3: I just like the spot here for the Raiders, and.
Speaker 4: And in the contest at three and a half, I'll
Speaker 4: definitely be banging in the Raiders and and watch Geno
Speaker 4: just just spare me to death for three hours and
Speaker 4: and regret my decision.
Speaker 3: You know, just don't spare us into a loss, please God.
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to talk about spare me
Speaker 3: to death. Jesus Christ. Here we go. Those Los Angeles
Speaker 3: Rams hosting those new old Saints. Oh they got a
Speaker 3: shiny new quarterback. I'm not even going over the preseason lines.
Speaker 3: It's not worth it. H Actually, I do want to
Speaker 3: take a pat Sea just gonna know. I was really
Speaker 3: down on New Orleans. Yeah, it's not worth it, Okay.
Speaker 3: Me and Vegas were so like so far off on
Speaker 3: this one, so, which is excusable.
Speaker 4: It's still probably only like ten, right, twelve the spread?
Speaker 4: Yeah no, no, the preseason, preseason.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah and a half okay, yeah yeah, but I
Speaker 3: mean that's still like five points. Yeah, so fourteen points. Uh,
Speaker 3: you can find thirteen and a half a bet online
Speaker 3: heavily juice. I mean, you're basically saying three thirteen point
Speaker 3: seven five. They gotta win about two touchdowns to cover
Speaker 3: all numbers. Long morenan, do you have the Rams covering
Speaker 3: all numbers with the fourteen? I mean, sure, get your
Speaker 3: boy I sucked shuck in his first roadstar in the NFL.
Speaker 4: Well, well it's technically I fucking suck shuck. So you
Speaker 4: gotta you gotta put the flavor in there, and you
Speaker 4: gotta get the extra. Look, it's a it's in Louisiana.
Speaker 4: You got thir a little sauce on it.
Speaker 3: Listening and I was trying to be fucking nice.
Speaker 4: Nah, she ain't listening. She she she knows. He sucks.
Speaker 4: It's it's just a bad This is a bad deal.
Speaker 4: Now listen, I'm just gonna take the rams. I'm banging
Speaker 4: them in. This is this is a new NFL. Take
Speaker 4: the favorites. They're just it's gonna it's gonna run away. You.
Speaker 4: You have to actually pick your spots when you're when
Speaker 4: you're taking dogs in the NFL. Now, you gotta be
Speaker 4: real particular. It's not the old NFL. Uh. We liked Carolina.
Speaker 4: We both kind of like that Carolina dog spot. We
Speaker 4: kind of lean towards the Raiders as a dog spot.
Speaker 4: You just gotta be careful, man. You can't go, oh well, yeah,
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh three and a half three, that's that's just that's
Speaker 4: that's old NFL. Man. We've got to adjust with it.
Speaker 4: As handicappers, you gotta adjust the way the league goes
Speaker 4: and can't just stuck be stuck in our old ways. Uh.
Speaker 4: I mean, look, give me, give me a rocking chair
Speaker 4: and a shotgun, and I'll tell you all about the
Speaker 4: old ways. I love being an old motherfucker. But this
Speaker 4: is money on the line here, man, Money's on the
Speaker 4: line here. We gotta adjust with it. But yeah, so
Speaker 4: I'll be on the I'll be on the ramts for sure.
Speaker 4: But just fuck this game. But like a side note,
Speaker 4: trade deadline is coming up. Why has Kamara not been
Speaker 4: traded yet? I'm not sure. Like, I mean there's some
Speaker 4: there's some.
Speaker 3: Playoff teams comeback betting on the comeback.
Speaker 4: I cannot believe that Kansas City has not made this
Speaker 4: deal yet. Like this is the Kansas City deal that
Speaker 4: we know is coming. It happens all at least do
Speaker 4: it all the time back when they were one of
Speaker 4: the Super Bowls, you know, when they went.
Speaker 3: Antiree like Pacheco two point on older Purchallo, it's the
Speaker 3: same thing.
Speaker 4: Well, Pacheco's hurt and it's never saying yeah.
Speaker 3: So it just just I'm shocked that he has a
Speaker 3: hunt again for the ninth fucking season in row.
Speaker 4: So yeah, I don't waste time on this. It's it's
Speaker 4: I'll give me the give me the Rams.
Speaker 3: Okay, two reasons why I can't go with you here,
Speaker 3: but I'm definitely not beting New Orleans. Don't get a
Speaker 3: twisted you are off. The buy home Favorites is twenty
Speaker 3: twenty one, again twenty seven and two. However, I was like, okay,
Speaker 3: what about a big fucking favorite. Favorites is seven or
Speaker 3: more off? The bye at home is twenty twenty one,
Speaker 3: average line of ten point four. This line's quite a
Speaker 3: bit over that eight and twelve forty percent against the spread. Look,
Speaker 3: it's hard to come off vacation and get up just
Speaker 3: to go beat the shit out of a fucking ten can.
Speaker 3: That's probably the logic behind that. However, I will say this,
Speaker 3: if you haven't used the RAMS in your survivor in
Speaker 3: that scenario, ten point or better favorite twenty two and
Speaker 3: oh straight up Winny by ten point six points per game.
Speaker 3: So they're gonna win this game by ten?
Speaker 4: Do they cover? Do they don't?
Speaker 3: I don't know, but yeah, I can't. I can't go
Speaker 3: with you just because of that trend. However, if you
Speaker 3: do got the rams, Survivor, this is the fucking time
Speaker 3: was the girl's unleash the beast with the Rams? What
Speaker 3: could go wrong? What can go wrong?
Speaker 4: Twenty two? Yeah, I wonder what the have you seen?
Speaker 4: What the circa billions?
Speaker 3: Thing is that they don't ever? Oh how many people
Speaker 3: are low?
Speaker 4: Yeah? How many people are left?
Speaker 3: I can probably get that in a second. Yeah, just't
Speaker 3: they won't release the selection still kickoffs on Sunday?
Speaker 4: Right, Yeah, it turns out this has to be.
Speaker 3: The number one for everybody has the Rams left? If
Speaker 3: the Rams lose this game, that survivor might.
Speaker 4: Be Yeah that ain't they ain't no shit be old
Speaker 4: for me because I'm definitely on the Rams. I got
Speaker 4: them available. I think it's the Rams and the chargers
Speaker 4: probably the highest.
Speaker 3: I don't know, got the chargers can always charge?
Speaker 4: That is no, this is your hardballs chargers. This ain't
Speaker 4: your old chargers. Ain't it's your charge.
Speaker 3: They can't games, Okay, they can and the.
Speaker 4: Special Tennessee is the worst. They're just they're just it's impossible. Yeah,
Speaker 4: it is impossible to lose. I don't want to put
Speaker 4: any bad mojo out there and say something that's gonna
Speaker 4: like just it's almost Yeah, let's we don't how bad
Speaker 4: they are?
Speaker 3: All right, let's move Okay, let's move on to the
Speaker 3: actual game of the week. It's was let's go full
Speaker 3: bills of those Kansas City Chiefs now this one. Okay,
Speaker 3: we do want to look at preseason loss of this one.
Speaker 3: I had Buffalo minus two. Vegas had a minus two
Speaker 3: and a half Vegas because now Kansas City is up
Speaker 3: to minus well, no, they're falling again.
Speaker 4: Okay, one and a half for Ish.
Speaker 3: Yeah, one and a half ish Okay, so let me
Speaker 3: adjust that so Canna City back to the minus one
Speaker 3: and a half Longhorn. I have many, many thoughts in
Speaker 3: this game. I I wanted to slam Buffalo. I'll get
Speaker 3: into why it didn't once I get there. However, what
Speaker 3: do you got on this one?
Speaker 4: Because you because you've been watching the NFL for the
Speaker 4: last seven years, and.
Speaker 3: You you know that I've been watching the NFL for
Speaker 3: the last seve years. I would have slamed Bufalo because
Speaker 3: they owned Kansas City in the regular season, owned them,
Speaker 3: literally own them.
Speaker 4: Well, well you where I'm gonna be.
Speaker 3: Like, literally Patre Rome sucks against his team.
Speaker 4: In the regular season's terrible, Well, then you should take it.
Speaker 4: You should take Buffalo then, because I'm gonna be on
Speaker 4: Kansas City. I'm gonna be on Kansas City. And there's
Speaker 4: there's a couple of reasons why. Number One, we all
Speaker 4: I mean just this is this is a normal my
Speaker 4: homes as a short favorite or dog like this. I'm
Speaker 4: not overthinking these things. I'm just gonna do it, even
Speaker 4: if Buffalo owns them. Fine, you can shake your head.
Speaker 4: You can shake your head all you want.
Speaker 3: You can't, no, I do.
Speaker 4: In the Raider season, sure you're.
Speaker 3: Right now, it's literally like the wildest flipper ever seen in.
Speaker 4: The playoffs that goes the other ways.
Speaker 3: Never thrown an interception versus Kansas City. In the Radiar season,
Speaker 3: Holmes dows a million to Buffalo go to the playoffs.
Speaker 3: It's literally the exact ops.
Speaker 4: So I have I have two things, and I'm glad
Speaker 4: you brought that up because i got two things to
Speaker 4: counter what you're saying. Number One, in the past, the
Speaker 4: Kansay hasn't cared about the regular season as much. They're
Speaker 4: chasing in the regular season right now, they started horrible.
Speaker 4: This is they have to catch Denver. They have to
Speaker 4: get they have to catch Buffalo to get the.
Speaker 3: Mom I'll count that immediately. Because Buffalo has always been
Speaker 3: up there with them towards the number one seed. They've
Speaker 3: always cared about this game. They don't care. I'll grant
Speaker 3: you your general principal. They don't care most of the time.
Speaker 3: They've always cared about this game because they've always known
Speaker 3: Buffalo could take the number one seed away.
Speaker 4: That's fine, but they're not even winning division right now.
Speaker 4: They're not even winning their own division.
Speaker 3: But my point is in this game, they've always had
Speaker 3: the motivation. Buffalo has always kicked the living shit out.
Speaker 3: I remember when you had Kansas City last year on
Speaker 3: a teaser when Buffalo's minus too and it didn't even
Speaker 3: fucking cover by fifteen.
Speaker 4: Okay, fair enough, But like there are no letdown spots
Speaker 4: anymore for Keannessee. They have to They have to like
Speaker 4: full through Ottle every game, which leads to the second
Speaker 4: point that Annie Reid has finally figured out after years
Speaker 4: and years of not ever it just playing old school.
Speaker 4: I don't go for on fourth downs. He's finally caught
Speaker 4: up to the rest of the league. But where I'm
Speaker 4: just gonna go for it on fourth downs on my
Speaker 4: own territory like the rest of the teams do. And
Speaker 4: there's nothing scarier than a great team with a great
Speaker 4: quarterback that is embracing the analytics of going for and
Speaker 4: fourth down like we saw Washington go crazy with it
Speaker 4: last year. We've seen Detroit good job. We've seen we've
Speaker 4: seen Detroit do it in years past and still do it.
Speaker 4: He's embracing that. He's starting to doing more and more
Speaker 4: and more. So the arrows up and and I don't
Speaker 4: know what it is about Buffalo. What's what are we
Speaker 4: sitting on with record wise? Yeah, it's when I watched them,
Speaker 4: I'm like, okay, the second place. Yeah, they're five and two,
Speaker 4: but they're they're three and four a t s. There's
Speaker 4: just been It's just it doesn't look and at Oliver
Speaker 4: is out in this game. You know there's something not
Speaker 4: quite right with their defense. It hasn't looked right all year.
Speaker 4: I don't know, man, Just I gotta have a reason
Speaker 4: to go and go against my homes as a show favorite.
Speaker 4: And I don't find them other than what you said
Speaker 4: with the Buffalo owning them and that's fine, But Kansas
Speaker 4: City's building and chasing. They're building and chasing, and that's
Speaker 4: not you don't want to go against that.
Speaker 3: Well, so is Buffalo. Look, everything was onom me for
Speaker 3: Buffalo Power and Great Buffalo fifty two and a half.
Speaker 3: I've got it graded under. I had never bet that
Speaker 3: in a million years. In this game we have Buffalo
Speaker 3: went in twenty six, twenty four. It's a flat matchup
Speaker 3: for John Wayne. But again it's a terrible matter from home.
Speaker 3: So loses two points to BPG. He plays like shit
Speaker 3: against them. Literally every game that doesn't have a do
Speaker 3: or die circumstance to it, he just does. Now Buffalo
Speaker 3: does lose a half point the VPG the running game.
Speaker 3: I don't like that, and Kansas City gains a point
Speaker 3: and a half. However, for Jacoes Outcha goes out.
Speaker 4: Jakos sucked. He's sucked all year. He has not been
Speaker 4: He's a non factor. It's not a good running back
Speaker 4: either way.
Speaker 3: There's two things that kept me from playing Buffalo in
Speaker 3: this game. One, yes, Buffalo has on Kansas City in
Speaker 3: the regular season for the last four years whatever, but
Speaker 3: has been well documented on this podcast and probably this
Speaker 3: podcast only. Patrick Mahomes has not been that good of
Speaker 3: a quarterback for the last four years through the regular season.
Speaker 3: If you just look at his numbers, and I'm not
Speaker 3: saying he's not still the greatest quarterback in the NFL,
Speaker 3: especially when it fucking matters. But through the regular season,
Speaker 3: he just hasn't been He's not been good. He's not
Speaker 3: been Paddy. But we started talking about this, Longhorn, I
Speaker 3: don't know three weeks ago when I said this is
Speaker 3: the game that Patty should be Patty again. And guess what,
Speaker 3: he went out and he was Paddy. And since that
Speaker 3: game when I said that, he's not not been Paddy.
Speaker 3: This looks like that original iteration of the Chiefs where
Speaker 3: they just want a rough shot over body. I know
Speaker 3: that disappoints you because you don't want to seem some
Speaker 3: super Bowl again. However, if they keep playing like this,
Speaker 3: they're going to the goddamn super Bowl again because nobody's
Speaker 3: gonna fucking beat it. And the other thing that did
Speaker 3: not let me play Buffalo is hand City is before
Speaker 3: the Boy and before the buye away favorite. It's twenty
Speaker 3: twenty one, twenty and fourteen fifty eight point eight percent
Speaker 3: against the spread, covering by one point six points on
Speaker 3: an average line of three point seven. We're at one
Speaker 3: and a half. They're twenty three and nine straight up,
Speaker 3: winning by five points a game. So now this is
Speaker 3: not the spot that I could back Buffalo. Everything else
Speaker 3: tells me back Buffalo. This is not the spot for Buffalo.
Speaker 3: And again, like you said, talking about waives and momentimum stuff,
Speaker 3: until somebody can slow this machine down that Kansas City
Speaker 3: has now come back into No thank you. I'm back
Speaker 3: into the motive. I'm like the Detroit thing, like I
Speaker 3: got to have a fucking reason to bet against true,
Speaker 3: I gotta have fucking reason bet Againstkansas City right now.
Speaker 3: I had a reason with Detroit against Kansas City. Again,
Speaker 3: the two teams I just mentioned the game, you know,
Speaker 3: kind of turned on one play, it went the other
Speaker 3: way and then it was a fucking lancelot.
Speaker 4: I believe that was my home short short home favorite.
Speaker 3: He's not a home favorite here.
Speaker 4: I'm sorry, didn't mean to throw in the home He's
Speaker 4: a short favorite. That's his sweet spot.
Speaker 3: It was, and I'm not disagreeing with you there, but
Speaker 3: against Buffalo has not been a good spot for him.
Speaker 3: Favorite dog. It didn't matter. But again, I cannot can't.
Speaker 3: I walked in this, I walked into the week saying Buffalo, Buffalo,
Speaker 3: Buffalo as a dug in its like, fuck, I can't
Speaker 3: bet Buffalo. So it's one of those games is a
Speaker 3: handicaverage frustrating because you when you look at a slate
Speaker 3: and along, when you know this, you look up and
Speaker 3: down a slate before you dig into anything at all,
Speaker 3: you kind of circle three or four games. Right, they're like,
Speaker 3: all right, I know which side I like here is
Speaker 3: from history, memory, instinct, the way things are going, blah
Speaker 3: blah blah. But then you start to dig in. Half
Speaker 3: of those fall away.
Speaker 4: And you're like, fuck, goddamn, oh you're lucky if three
Speaker 4: you if you have three in the NFL, that kind
Speaker 4: of everything lines up for you. Just it's that yes,
Speaker 4: you're you're true, you're right in there. It's it's it's like, oh, well,
Speaker 4: can't do that one. Yeah, can't this trend, can't do
Speaker 4: that one. This can't do that one. Fucking injuries can't
Speaker 4: do that. Injuries can't do that one. It's always something.
Speaker 3: So I'm not disagreeing with you, but I am with
Speaker 3: my whole heart hoping the Buffalo Eastest game.
Speaker 4: Is fuck Kansas City, all right, fair enough.
Speaker 3: All right, let's go on to those Washington I guess Redskins.
Speaker 3: What's left of them? They're hosting No Seattle Seahawks. Now,
Speaker 3: this one's not fair for the line movement. We got
Speaker 3: no Jadon Daniels, so I'm not gonna go with the
Speaker 3: preseason lines here. Vegas was five and a half. I
Speaker 3: don't remember what I was. I definitely wasn't that high.
Speaker 3: But still there's no way I was Seattle minus three,
Speaker 3: which is where we're currently sitting at as a road
Speaker 3: favorite with the most West coast to East coast game
Speaker 3: possibly of all fucking time. M H long horn, what
Speaker 3: do you got?
Speaker 4: Yeah, but you got a team that dominates traveling in
Speaker 4: the NFL recently with this new head coach that they
Speaker 4: have that they got from Baltimore. So I mean, I
Speaker 4: can only be can only look to Seattle in this
Speaker 4: spot because you've got a Jade and Daniels who will play?
Speaker 4: Is he is he banged up? More than likely he's
Speaker 4: not going to be, you know, one hundred percent, I
Speaker 4: think so. I think I think that's it's leaning towards
Speaker 4: him playing. And well, look, if he plays, he's not
Speaker 4: gonna be hundred percent healthy. If he doesn't, okay, great,
Speaker 4: it's Seattle. Still. Anyways, you've got Tim Terry McLaurin. He's
Speaker 4: he's gonna be out. Yeah, it's just like, how can
Speaker 4: you do anything but take Seattle, who's been dominant on
Speaker 4: the road. This is their sweet spot on the road.
Speaker 4: It's it's counterintuitive, but uh, because they got they're they're
Speaker 4: supposed to be really good at home, but they're for
Speaker 4: whatever reason, really good on the road. So I've got
Speaker 4: no reason. And Redskins suck at stopping the run, and
Speaker 4: you've got a two headed monster running game in Seattle.
Speaker 4: They that's true, that is true too so, but but
Speaker 4: the two headed monster running game for Seattle should eat
Speaker 4: and Donald Donald is been look again right in the wave.
Speaker 4: Give me a reason to not to not play darm
Speaker 4: I don't have one. So it just everything points to Seattle.
Speaker 4: I know it's three and a half? Is it still
Speaker 4: three and a half? Officially? Three? Even better? So so
Speaker 4: you lose the hook there. That's just a nice little
Speaker 4: spot for Seattle. I don't know if I'm necessarily gonna
Speaker 4: like like banging into any kind of premium.
Speaker 3: Pick or like like, but if you like Seattle, will
Speaker 3: say this money is coming in on the Redskins, and
Speaker 3: I think this game closes.
Speaker 4: Under three, So just wait, yeah, what worries me is
Speaker 4: is that you do have the Redskins getting their you know,
Speaker 4: quarterback back. So if if he plays like he has
Speaker 4: that out of the world game, if he plays like
Speaker 4: he's he has in the past where he just like
Speaker 4: lights everything up, sure he could. He could burn you
Speaker 4: one hundred percent.
Speaker 3: I know.
Speaker 4: So yeah, it's we're I think we're on Seattle, both
Speaker 4: of us.
Speaker 3: I'm not on Seattle, but I'm definitely not on the
Speaker 3: Red so and I'll tell you why. Uh I get
Speaker 3: I agree with this game of barri otis. I apologize,
Speaker 3: But on the Seattle side, this is a fantastic matchup
Speaker 3: for Sammy d. He gainst two five points this Redskins defense. Look,
Speaker 3: I said when they hired dan Quinn last year, and
Speaker 3: there I even did a solo pod on it for
Speaker 3: the preseason. We bet the under on the Redskins, but
Speaker 3: I said, look, Ben, there's a good chance this thing
Speaker 3: could go over this total because they finally, for the
Speaker 3: first time in a long time, have a legitimate NFL
Speaker 3: head coach, and dan Quinn is that. But I also said,
Speaker 3: caution that when he was a head coach, his defense
Speaker 3: Atlanta sucked. It's like he can't influence both positions. And
Speaker 3: this defense is fucking awful and it's getting worse Longhorn
Speaker 3: by the week. It's not getting better. It started off
Speaker 3: this year a lot better, right, it started off. We're like,
Speaker 3: oh shit, okay, dan Quinn's got a little something going
Speaker 3: there and play defense. They're not scoring a million points
Speaker 3: like they did last year. They're still winning football games. Hey,
Speaker 3: you know's got to turn around. No, he ain't got
Speaker 3: shit turned around. They have fallen off a fucking cliff.
Speaker 3: They're officially a mad team, giving up more points than
Speaker 3: they've scored. They're not gonna be able to run the
Speaker 3: ball against Seattle. Here that who's a point of the
Speaker 3: VPG in Seattle gains a half a point. I mean,
Speaker 3: it could only be Seattle for me. The only reason
Speaker 3: why I'm not playing them again. Off a bye or
Speaker 3: sorry before the buye This is before the buye away.
Speaker 3: Favorites twelve fourteen and two forty six point two percent
Speaker 3: ats on the Amazon of minus four point three, So
Speaker 3: we're over we're under that, and you're already not coming
Speaker 3: to four point three. Maybe that's enough to get you
Speaker 3: to the fifty to fifty trend. It's not a killer
Speaker 3: or whatever.
Speaker 4: I wouldn't just yeah, that's not massive, it's not, but
Speaker 4: that with.
Speaker 3: Especially now you're telling when Jaydon Daniels is gonna play,
Speaker 3: he still has that magic to him, even though the
Speaker 3: offense has not been great, definitely not anywhere closer it
Speaker 3: was last year. With this defense, dude, it's so bad.
Speaker 3: It's so bad. And Sam Donald having such a huge
Speaker 3: matchup advantage to the BPG. I cannot play Washington. I
Speaker 3: just cannot do it.
Speaker 4: I agreed.
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to the oh money up football.
Speaker 3: It's those Dallas Cows coming off and embarss embarrassed road
Speaker 3: domination loss for Broncos. They're coming home to face the
Speaker 3: fighting midgets of Arizona coming off of bye two and
Speaker 3: a half point home favorite Longhorn, what do you like
Speaker 3: in this one?
Speaker 4: You already know I'm gonna be on. The Cowboys are
Speaker 4: coming like this ride, ride, the back and forth, just
Speaker 4: the carousel, or or whatever you want to say about
Speaker 4: about the Cowboys. Like you you bet against them when
Speaker 4: they come off of giant embarrassing loss or a win.
Speaker 4: You bet against them when they come up with a
Speaker 4: giant embarrassing loss. That's when you want to that's when
Speaker 4: you want to bet on them. So yeah, I'm gonna
Speaker 4: be on Dak. There's a couple of numbers for for
Speaker 4: Dak Prescott in this in this spot twenty nine and
Speaker 4: fifteen against the spread in primetime games fift sorry, thirteen
Speaker 4: and oh get this, mos Stevison and tell me you
Speaker 4: want to go against this? Thirteen and o Ats is
Speaker 4: a primetime favorite at home? You want to go against that?
Speaker 4: Be my guest. I ain't doing it. He destroys bad teams.
Speaker 4: Cardinals are sitting it two and five. I think we're
Speaker 4: getting the midget back to play quarterback for Arizona. I
Speaker 4: don't give a fuck. This is his sweet spot now.
Speaker 4: Now I will say this is you don't when you
Speaker 4: don't want to bet against the midget in Arizona is
Speaker 4: when he's a dog. So there's there is that little
Speaker 4: conflicting thing. But it's under three now I feel like that.
Speaker 3: And I was gonna bring that on a handicap. We
Speaker 3: used to be so scary, so petrified.
Speaker 4: It's under the three, but I would but I would
Speaker 4: love to see that. Well, No, they've lost, they've lost
Speaker 4: close games this year with him in there, so like
Speaker 4: if but you need more, you need more than than
Speaker 4: two and a half. You need more than two. It
Speaker 4: doesn't matter if you play well, if you if you cover,
Speaker 4: you cover. So like you need more than two and
Speaker 4: a half though, Like if this was three and a half,
Speaker 4: four and a half, six, seven, that's your magic spots
Speaker 4: with with with with a midget, but under three with that,
Speaker 4: those numbers for DAK fucking get out of here. I'm
Speaker 4: all over the Cowboys.
Speaker 3: Yeah, full agreeance with me here. Now here's where I
Speaker 3: struggle with my numbers a little bit. Fifty four is
Speaker 3: a total. I've got to going under zero chance whatever,
Speaker 3: fifty four. There's no Dallas scores forty game at home.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and they might hear too.
Speaker 3: No, that's not I'm not making that up. They've scored.
Speaker 4: Season.
Speaker 3: It is such a disparity between them home and road. Now,
Speaker 3: it's not a great matchup for DAK as far as
Speaker 3: defensive scheme here, and it actually is a really good
Speaker 3: matchup for the midget. But I mean Dallas defense sucks, Yeah,
Speaker 3: they suck. And it's a good matchup for the running
Speaker 3: game for Arizona. So the BBG actually grains out Arizona
Speaker 3: to cover this game. I don't care because everything you
Speaker 3: just mentioned, plus this, both these defenses fucking stink. Thirty
Speaker 3: second for Dallas, success rate twenty eight for Arizona. You
Speaker 3: don't think this game's going over? Probably is, however, Cowboys
Speaker 3: sixth in offense success rate, Arizona's offense staks twenty six.
Speaker 3: And this is the worst for all the shit we've
Speaker 3: talked about the Cowboys the defense all season long. If
Speaker 3: you think that the Jets were the worst team, no, no, no,
Speaker 3: this is the worst offense that they have played all season.
Speaker 3: They grade out lower than the Jets, and they basically
Speaker 3: shut the Jets down. And if you want to talk
Speaker 3: about home road splits, like I said, the Cows have
Speaker 3: yet to score less than forty points at home. They
Speaker 3: haven't even sniffed that on the road. And Arizona doesn't
Speaker 3: score anywhere on anyone. This is a cow spot for me.
Speaker 3: And then a couple of trends here we have, so
Speaker 3: the Cowboys are sorry. The Arizona coming off of bye
Speaker 3: away dogs in twenty twenty one sixteen nineteen forty five
Speaker 3: point seven percent on average line of four point six
Speaker 3: and losing by a point, So that means they're losing
Speaker 3: by five and a half points per game. However, the
Speaker 3: other one that just this is one of those perfect
Speaker 3: coinciding trends. What could go wrong? Cowboys are going on
Speaker 3: a bye next game. If you're going on a by
Speaker 3: game before that, and you're a home favorite of twenty
Speaker 3: twenty one, twenty seven and ten seventy three percent ats
Speaker 3: five point one, and you're covering that by two point
Speaker 3: two points per game, you're winning by seven and a
Speaker 3: half points per game. We're only laying two and a half.
Speaker 3: Everything you just said, it seems too easy, ad fucking home.
Speaker 3: It seems way too easy.
Speaker 4: That's scary, that's fun.
Speaker 3: There's no other way to bet this. This is the slam.
Speaker 3: The cows are coming over with loss Azona by It's
Speaker 3: a slam dunk spot. Arizona wins by thirty. Don't worry
Speaker 3: about it.
Speaker 4: Take the loss.
Speaker 3: It's fine. There's no way we were wrong, except when
Speaker 3: we lose on the fucking scoreboard. Yes it is. It
Speaker 3: is cows, cows cows from me here, and yeah, I
Speaker 3: wouldn't be Look, I expect this game to be forty
Speaker 3: to twenty seven and then to score sixty seven points.
Speaker 3: You're never gonna sweat the fucking total either. That's really
Speaker 3: what I expect in this game. I mean it would
Speaker 3: be cows it over all the way for Cowson over
Speaker 3: all the way, all right, because Arizona will be able
Speaker 3: to score. They will be able to score. However, like
Speaker 3: I said, is bas Cowboy's even has been. This is
Speaker 3: the worst offense they've played all season long. And yeah,
Speaker 3: they'll still score twenty on them and the cows are
Speaker 3: This Arizona defense is shit. They're gonna score at least
Speaker 3: fucking thirty five, probably forty. Yeah.
Speaker 4: Are they gonna score more than the six points that
Speaker 4: mia he currently has with four mans left in the game.
Speaker 4: I don't know. Probably so yeah, probably so fucking What
Speaker 4: a pathetic performance by you.
Speaker 3: Okay, pathetic, we're looking good.
Speaker 4: Pathetic up.
Speaker 3: Okay, we might go to an odor not Boys and Girls.
Speaker 3: All right. I think that was it Longhorns. That was
Speaker 3: all them wins coming in the a. All right, boys
Speaker 3: and girls, something was free as the picks of the week.
Speaker 3: Get your pencils ready.
Speaker 4: Remember I forgot. I forgot we're doing this.
Speaker 3: He never forgets. That's just a bullshit. Co I won
Speaker 3: two games in two years i'd make up some ship
Speaker 3: too about that.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I forgot, totally forgot.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Oh is it my turn first? Yeah? I always go first.
Speaker 4: I always go first.
Speaker 3: I don't want to break up the rhythm.
Speaker 4: Oh you're talking about let's not change the thing. Give
Speaker 4: me Indianapolis Colts minus three minus three free pick of
Speaker 4: the week.
Speaker 3: Are they playing again?
Speaker 4: That would be them Picts park stars up there, extra
Speaker 4: parking mat. Mike Tomman gonna get downtown and try to
Speaker 4: get a win, but he can't win any more with
Speaker 4: a bad defense.
Speaker 3: All right, so guarantee Pittsburgh on the money line and
Speaker 3: go ahead and on all your like player props. C
Speaker 3: K if you're listening, and Daniel Jones over the one
Speaker 3: and a half interceptions. That's got shp love.
Speaker 4: This will be the time we're going to to really
Speaker 4: test this theory. This time we're testing it.
Speaker 3: All right, Let's go with the college free pick of
Speaker 3: the week. Oh we already hit our one tonight at
Speaker 3: the f Let's give you the other FCS pick is
Speaker 3: still sitting at this line, so it's fair. Brian and
Speaker 3: Monmouth over sixty two and a half long horn. When
Speaker 3: Brian Manmouth had limit to tell you you fucking scoring
Speaker 3: palooza and we're gonna get lots of points seventy seventy
Speaker 3: five who knows, but definitely from the sixty two and
Speaker 3: a half. Don't even worry about it. Boys and girls,
Speaker 3: your boys still on his heaters. Wanna know already on
Speaker 3: college this week just happens to night as we're recording this,
Speaker 3: and hopefully about the old one to know in the NFL.
Speaker 3: Off the fucking hot and running start. So let's do
Speaker 3: that a long WRT. Tell me that family's Patreon where
Speaker 3: they can get all these fucking winners.
Speaker 4: All right, be sure to grow that Patreon page Patreon
Speaker 4: dot com, slash bet, underscore fgh per Stevens with a hot, hot,
Speaker 4: hot college football package. We got a couple of NFL
Speaker 4: packages up there available for purchase, So people stop throwing
Speaker 4: away your hard earn money on a guessing game. Let
Speaker 4: the prose do that heavy litting. So sign up, tell
Speaker 4: a friend and join in on the funnel watching football,
Speaker 4: drinking beer, and never pay a bookie again.
Speaker 3: Come on, a damn it, people, never pay a book
Speaker 3: you again, Steven Tall, I'll take your sephim