WEBVTT 1 00:00:04.639 --> 00:00:08.199 With Laurent's segele end from London and Gerard Reed from Berlin. 2 00:00:08.720 --> 00:00:10.560 This is redefining. 3 00:00:10.119 --> 00:00:14.679 Energy today on refer Energy JR. Finally, that's episode on 4 00:00:14.759 --> 00:00:17.079 Blackouts The Blackout. 5 00:00:17.239 --> 00:00:19.920 Yeah, looking forward to this one. Ron obviously highly. 6 00:00:19.640 --> 00:00:21.679 Topic, but first of well, from our partner. 7 00:00:22.280 --> 00:00:25.239 A b Loco Energy is Europe's premier leaser of ten 8 00:00:25.359 --> 00:00:29.640 foot container mobile batteries built in Europe with COTL best 9 00:00:29.800 --> 00:00:35.600 LFP cells. A Bloco Energy serves fourteen European countries, including France, 10 00:00:36.079 --> 00:00:39.759 Germany and the UK. 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Make your life easier, make your 14 00:00:50.159 --> 00:00:51.200 business more flexible. 15 00:00:51.439 --> 00:00:54.359 Back to the show, there's been so much things written, 16 00:00:54.880 --> 00:00:57.600 including you, so we put the link in the show 17 00:00:57.640 --> 00:00:59.520 note what did you sing in yourself stack? 18 00:00:59.719 --> 00:01:02.240 Well, ultimately what I said it was all about the 19 00:01:02.240 --> 00:01:05.920 playing game, just nobody putting hands up and taking responsibility. 20 00:01:05.959 --> 00:01:08.840 I mean, there was a series of mistakes made, so 21 00:01:09.120 --> 00:01:10.560 best thing to do is put your hand up, say 22 00:01:10.640 --> 00:01:13.359 made mistakes, can learn from move on. Didn't get that 23 00:01:13.400 --> 00:01:15.159 from anybody and that's very concerning. 24 00:01:15.599 --> 00:01:18.120 Yeah, there was a series of reports and every report 25 00:01:18.239 --> 00:01:20.079 was puaranting in the other guy's direction. 26 00:01:20.359 --> 00:01:25.519 So it's the grid operator, it's hyber droller, it's solar, 27 00:01:25.920 --> 00:01:30.480 it's it's the friendships, and everybody would get blamed. 28 00:01:30.680 --> 00:01:33.000 It's just mad. You could only laugh at it. 29 00:01:33.159 --> 00:01:36.319 Just sorry, sometimes you make a mistake. Put your hand up, 30 00:01:36.359 --> 00:01:37.159 say it made a mistake. 31 00:01:37.640 --> 00:01:40.480 So all of a sudden, there were hundreds of expects 32 00:01:40.519 --> 00:01:43.079 of blackouts. But I think we need to go back 33 00:01:43.079 --> 00:01:46.920 to the source and job. We bring you an extraordinary guest. 34 00:01:47.439 --> 00:01:50.799 Yeah. Absolutely. We bring in a guy known many years 35 00:01:50.799 --> 00:01:55.120 called Steve Berberish, and he was formerly the head of 36 00:01:55.200 --> 00:01:59.079 the system operator in California, and he's lived through a 37 00:01:59.120 --> 00:02:01.439 lot of stress. Can imagine. Just I think we see 38 00:02:01.439 --> 00:02:04.000 this all the time as the stress in the California 39 00:02:04.079 --> 00:02:09.400 grid because of climate wildfires, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. So no 40 00:02:09.960 --> 00:02:12.240 better a person to come in and hear that. And also, 41 00:02:12.240 --> 00:02:13.840 by the way, so I don't forget the California grid. 42 00:02:13.840 --> 00:02:16.360 It's just full of soul. Right sent to Spain. 43 00:02:16.919 --> 00:02:20.719 Right, Okay, let's bring Steve on the show. Steve, it's 44 00:02:20.719 --> 00:02:21.639 great to have you on the show. 45 00:02:22.080 --> 00:02:23.840 It's a pleasure to be here. I've looked forward to 46 00:02:23.879 --> 00:02:26.000 speaking with both of you for some time now, and 47 00:02:26.120 --> 00:02:29.039 the provocative writings you've been doing a drawer or I 48 00:02:29.080 --> 00:02:31.759 think spurring a lot of conversation. So it's great to 49 00:02:31.759 --> 00:02:32.159 be here. 50 00:02:32.319 --> 00:02:35.400 So Steve, we're going to talk about blackouts, and you 51 00:02:35.479 --> 00:02:39.000 were yourself at the head of Kaiso into A twenty 52 00:02:39.400 --> 00:02:42.240 and you experience blackout. So can you remind us a 53 00:02:42.280 --> 00:02:44.800 bit what happened and how do you manage to get 54 00:02:44.840 --> 00:02:45.719 yourself out of it? 55 00:02:46.240 --> 00:02:48.800 I can. I think it's important to understand that all 56 00:02:48.840 --> 00:02:53.039 blackouts are different. There are some common themes. In our case, 57 00:02:53.599 --> 00:02:55.879 we dropped about five hundred megawats of load on a 58 00:02:55.879 --> 00:03:00.560 Friday night and a Saturday night in August of twenty twenty. Enough, 59 00:03:00.560 --> 00:03:02.280 it was the midst of COVID, but it was a 60 00:03:02.400 --> 00:03:06.479 very very hot time in California, and there's a lot 61 00:03:06.520 --> 00:03:10.280 of things that came to ahead, which is thematic across 62 00:03:10.319 --> 00:03:13.919 most of these blackouts. The principal issue was there was 63 00:03:14.000 --> 00:03:18.919 not enough supply to meet demand, but it's also a 64 00:03:19.000 --> 00:03:21.400 lack of adequate planning, and I think in a lot 65 00:03:21.439 --> 00:03:24.879 of cases there's a theme across these blackouts a lack 66 00:03:24.960 --> 00:03:27.240 of adequate planning. And let me set the stage for you. 67 00:03:27.719 --> 00:03:32.680 California has and had been importing twenty five percent of 68 00:03:32.719 --> 00:03:36.879 its power from out of state resources, and over the 69 00:03:37.000 --> 00:03:40.639 last few years leading up to twenty twenty, a lot 70 00:03:40.680 --> 00:03:44.800 of the resources, big thermal resources like coal had been 71 00:03:45.039 --> 00:03:50.080 retired or were retiring, so California could not lean as 72 00:03:50.159 --> 00:03:54.199 much on the West as it had when there might 73 00:03:54.199 --> 00:03:58.520 have been some gaps. The second thing is that California 74 00:03:58.520 --> 00:04:03.159 has a very high portfolio from a renewable perspective, and 75 00:04:03.400 --> 00:04:07.439 obviously there's a significant ramp out of those resources in 76 00:04:07.479 --> 00:04:10.919 the evening. So if you have a very hot period 77 00:04:10.960 --> 00:04:13.919 in California, so then you have air conditioning load that 78 00:04:14.039 --> 00:04:18.120 hangs onto the system into the evening, you have no solar, 79 00:04:18.519 --> 00:04:21.000 you have to count on the rest of the West. Well, 80 00:04:21.000 --> 00:04:23.079 when you get a big heat domb over the West, 81 00:04:23.160 --> 00:04:25.160 you now have competition for all that power. And there 82 00:04:25.199 --> 00:04:28.639 simply was not enough power across the West for California 83 00:04:28.720 --> 00:04:30.519 to lean on the West to bring in the power 84 00:04:30.560 --> 00:04:33.199 that it had, So we were forced to shed load 85 00:04:33.519 --> 00:04:36.720 because we simply did not have enough power to serve 86 00:04:36.800 --> 00:04:40.879 the load. However, There was not an issue of instability, 87 00:04:41.040 --> 00:04:44.399 frequency deviation, voltage VLAD or anything like that. It was 88 00:04:44.439 --> 00:04:46.000 simply a matter of supply and demand. 89 00:04:46.560 --> 00:04:48.800 On the top of that, you had the nuclear plant 90 00:04:49.439 --> 00:04:51.639 was supposed to be there or was not there anymore. 91 00:04:52.040 --> 00:04:54.639 Well, that kind of goes back to the resources. Sant 92 00:04:54.680 --> 00:04:56.879 and no Free is the I believe the nuclear plant 93 00:04:56.920 --> 00:05:00.680 you're referring to, Santa No Free had retired several years 94 00:05:00.720 --> 00:05:05.720 before this incident, so it did not play a role. However, 95 00:05:06.279 --> 00:05:09.920 it is consistent with the fact that resources across the 96 00:05:09.920 --> 00:05:13.839 West had been retiring and there was less to go 97 00:05:13.959 --> 00:05:17.959 around that and combined with large coal plants that were 98 00:05:17.959 --> 00:05:19.240 also retired in the West. 99 00:05:19.600 --> 00:05:21.199 Steve and I mean you, I ask you to talk 100 00:05:21.199 --> 00:05:23.800 a little bit about the so called Duck curve, maybe 101 00:05:23.879 --> 00:05:25.120 to explain to people what. 102 00:05:25.000 --> 00:05:27.600 This is and how you dealt with it, because I 103 00:05:27.600 --> 00:05:30.160 think this is also a critical part of preparing for 104 00:05:30.199 --> 00:05:31.120 a future. 105 00:05:31.560 --> 00:05:34.439 Exactly right, And it's an interesting The Duck curve was 106 00:05:34.480 --> 00:05:38.439 an interesting theme. As the grid operator, what we had 107 00:05:38.480 --> 00:05:41.000 done and I was the CEO when the Duck Curve 108 00:05:41.079 --> 00:05:44.199 came to be, what it was trying to do was 109 00:05:44.399 --> 00:05:49.319 illustrate as you add renewables onto the system. What other 110 00:05:50.040 --> 00:05:53.839 resources do you need around those renewables, And what it 111 00:05:54.000 --> 00:05:57.160 highlighted was that, of course we all know, when you 112 00:05:57.160 --> 00:05:59.199 have a high solar portfolio, you're going to have a 113 00:05:59.319 --> 00:06:02.079 very high rate operate in the morning, and then you're 114 00:06:02.079 --> 00:06:05.360 going to have a very high out ramp in the evening. 115 00:06:05.800 --> 00:06:07.759 And if you look at that in the inverse of that, 116 00:06:08.319 --> 00:06:14.399 it basically shows the non renewable resources going down very 117 00:06:14.439 --> 00:06:17.360 deep into the belly and then coming back up very 118 00:06:17.439 --> 00:06:19.480 much in the ramp in the evening, which gives you 119 00:06:19.519 --> 00:06:23.000 the duck. The duck also tells you something else. It 120 00:06:23.079 --> 00:06:26.120 shows that when you have these resources, you need the 121 00:06:26.199 --> 00:06:28.360 ramp in the evening. They need to be on during 122 00:06:28.360 --> 00:06:31.240 the day so they can do that. That adds power 123 00:06:31.279 --> 00:06:36.279 onto the system. That ultimately leads to overgeneration, which ultimately 124 00:06:36.360 --> 00:06:40.199 leads to significant curtailment. And the curtailment numbers in California 125 00:06:40.279 --> 00:06:44.839 have grown astronomically over the last several years as solars 126 00:06:44.839 --> 00:06:47.959 have been added to the system. But it is thematic 127 00:06:48.399 --> 00:06:50.720 of the fact that you have to look at the 128 00:06:50.759 --> 00:06:53.920 system as it is and then assess the resources you have. 129 00:06:54.600 --> 00:06:58.199 And another example is that the head of the duck 130 00:06:58.240 --> 00:07:01.639 where the big ramp is in the evening. We assessed 131 00:07:01.959 --> 00:07:06.279 continually whether the system had the necessary ramping resources to 132 00:07:06.439 --> 00:07:09.519 be able to do that, and the ramp would give 133 00:07:09.560 --> 00:07:13.759 as extreme as about thirteen or fourteen thousand megawatts per 134 00:07:13.959 --> 00:07:17.879 hour in the evening, so it's a very very significant ramp. 135 00:07:18.519 --> 00:07:21.319 A lot of people thought that the Duck curve was 136 00:07:21.360 --> 00:07:24.639 anti renewable and that we were pointing out the issues 137 00:07:24.639 --> 00:07:29.240 with renewables, which I couldn't disagree with more. The fact is, 138 00:07:29.319 --> 00:07:31.079 what we were trying to do is show how the 139 00:07:31.079 --> 00:07:35.399 renewables behaved so that we could very clear mindedly plan 140 00:07:35.480 --> 00:07:36.120 the system. 141 00:07:36.600 --> 00:07:40.480 So what solution were found in the past five years 142 00:07:40.720 --> 00:07:44.959 to change the system? Was it regulatory? Was it putting 143 00:07:45.079 --> 00:07:47.680 more thermal backup? And of course we're going to talk 144 00:07:47.720 --> 00:07:50.480 about batteries, So how did the system evolve? 145 00:07:51.360 --> 00:07:55.120 In California's case, largely it has been solved with batteries, 146 00:07:55.759 --> 00:07:58.439 and I believe the last count they had about ten 147 00:07:58.519 --> 00:08:02.439 thousand megawatts of capacity of batteries. You can see on 148 00:08:02.480 --> 00:08:06.879 the California ISO website when they're charged and discharged. And 149 00:08:07.120 --> 00:08:11.079 it's an outstanding marriage with the DUC chart because in 150 00:08:11.120 --> 00:08:13.160 the middle of the day, when you would be otherwise 151 00:08:13.240 --> 00:08:17.519 curtailing renewables, you can soak up those low cost green 152 00:08:17.600 --> 00:08:21.319 electrons and then discharge them into the ramp into the evening. 153 00:08:21.399 --> 00:08:26.279 So it's actually a very very good marriage. Large scale 154 00:08:26.319 --> 00:08:30.959 storage is a critical enabler to decarbonizing the grid and 155 00:08:31.040 --> 00:08:32.799 deploying large scale renewvals. 156 00:08:33.320 --> 00:08:35.879 And Steve can I ask that about the whole need 157 00:08:36.000 --> 00:08:39.080 for backup generation and inertia and all that. 158 00:08:39.080 --> 00:08:40.840 Can you explain it a little bit about what you 159 00:08:40.919 --> 00:08:41.559 have to do there. 160 00:08:41.919 --> 00:08:43.799 I don't want to get into the technical details of 161 00:08:43.840 --> 00:08:47.080 operating the grid too deeply, but Jared, what you're referring 162 00:08:47.080 --> 00:08:49.559 to is there are a number of things you have 163 00:08:49.639 --> 00:08:52.240 to do to operate the grid so that it's stable, 164 00:08:52.799 --> 00:08:55.879 and one of the things you refer to is inertia. Now, 165 00:08:56.039 --> 00:09:00.399 inertia is sort of the horsepower that you ump into 166 00:09:00.399 --> 00:09:03.799 the system to keep it stable, and you traditionally got 167 00:09:03.919 --> 00:09:09.480 inertia from spinning masses which come out of power plants. However, 168 00:09:09.519 --> 00:09:13.919 there is a concept of synthetic inertia that you can 169 00:09:13.960 --> 00:09:18.639 get from inverters, and in fact, inverters are much faster 170 00:09:19.120 --> 00:09:23.600 at reacting to system events. And the example I give 171 00:09:23.960 --> 00:09:29.360 is having a table that's held by one leg. Obviously, 172 00:09:29.519 --> 00:09:33.200 three legs is better, four is better, yet five is better. 173 00:09:33.279 --> 00:09:33.480 Yet. 174 00:09:33.480 --> 00:09:36.600 From a stability perspective, and the more inverters you have 175 00:09:36.720 --> 00:09:40.440 out there, actually you're more stable than if you would 176 00:09:40.639 --> 00:09:43.919 have just a couple of thermal resources at hand. From 177 00:09:43.960 --> 00:09:47.720 an inertia perspective, you need to make sure you have 178 00:09:47.879 --> 00:09:53.120 that reaction potential, but it can also come from inverters. 179 00:09:53.320 --> 00:09:57.279 So these are the famous Greek forming in rets because 180 00:09:57.320 --> 00:10:00.360 first the sort out, you are Greek. Following now they 181 00:10:00.360 --> 00:10:02.519 are great forming. So can you explain a bit what 182 00:10:02.600 --> 00:10:05.000 it is because we hear that a lot, but nobody 183 00:10:05.000 --> 00:10:05.679 explained it. 184 00:10:06.519 --> 00:10:08.399 Well, I'm not an electrical engineer, so I'm not going 185 00:10:08.480 --> 00:10:11.240 to go too deep into it. But inverters can provide 186 00:10:11.279 --> 00:10:14.320 reactive power which will manage the voltage on the system. 187 00:10:14.799 --> 00:10:17.799 And I know, let me fast forward to the red 188 00:10:17.840 --> 00:10:21.080 electrical issue. They had some issues with voltage that was 189 00:10:21.320 --> 00:10:24.600 spiking on their system. But you can use the inverters 190 00:10:24.600 --> 00:10:29.240 to boost and back, which are voltage terms of the system. 191 00:10:29.519 --> 00:10:33.480 So they basically can provide the same kind of resources. 192 00:10:33.519 --> 00:10:38.440 The other side of that is frequency, and an inverter 193 00:10:38.559 --> 00:10:43.120 can very quickly increase its frequency or decrease its frequency, 194 00:10:43.159 --> 00:10:47.519 depending on what's going on with the system, and can 195 00:10:47.600 --> 00:10:51.919 then smooth it and it can have roughly the same 196 00:10:52.039 --> 00:10:55.559 counter response as you would get from spinning resources. 197 00:10:56.200 --> 00:10:59.279 Okay, let's go to Spain. Now, if I look at 198 00:10:59.320 --> 00:11:02.399 all the black out the past ten years, whether it's 199 00:11:02.440 --> 00:11:06.200 South Australia in two sixteen, so your you're blackouts in 200 00:11:06.279 --> 00:11:10.320 two or twenty, well, Louisiana earlier this year, and of 201 00:11:10.360 --> 00:11:14.720 course winter storm jury and in Ireland. They're all are 202 00:11:14.799 --> 00:11:20.039 linked to very severe weather events, whether it's storm, winter storm, 203 00:11:20.120 --> 00:11:24.279 heat waves. But in Spain apparently the weather was okay. 204 00:11:24.440 --> 00:11:27.879 So Jad, you just wrote a report on Spain. Can 205 00:11:27.960 --> 00:11:30.919 you remind our listener exactly what happened? 206 00:11:31.159 --> 00:11:33.440 Well, I'll be one hundred percent clear and say we're 207 00:11:33.480 --> 00:11:36.159 still not one hundred percent sure what happened. 208 00:11:36.559 --> 00:11:40.840 But what is clear is that you had a. 209 00:11:40.840 --> 00:11:41.879 Litany of mistakes. 210 00:11:42.600 --> 00:11:46.759 And it starts, for definitely, with quid planning, and one 211 00:11:46.799 --> 00:11:49.679 mistake led to another mistake, so led to another mistake, 212 00:11:49.840 --> 00:11:50.200 and then you. 213 00:11:50.200 --> 00:11:50.840 Had a problem. 214 00:11:51.080 --> 00:11:52.159 That's sort of what happened. 215 00:11:52.639 --> 00:11:55.360 But again it did start with bad planning, and the 216 00:11:55.399 --> 00:11:57.639 fact about it is there are no batteries in the system, 217 00:11:58.039 --> 00:12:00.639 there's not enough back of power in the system. I mean, 218 00:12:00.639 --> 00:12:02.360 there's a whole pile of reasons you could look at it, 219 00:12:02.399 --> 00:12:04.799 but it certainly does seem to lay most of the 220 00:12:04.799 --> 00:12:08.240 blame with Red Electric because the reality is just because 221 00:12:08.279 --> 00:12:11.519 one SOLDA plan goes off. Great Steve, you just talked 222 00:12:11.559 --> 00:12:14.039 about it. One plan goes off. I mean, that's your 223 00:12:14.080 --> 00:12:16.399 job to go make sure there's enough power there to 224 00:12:16.480 --> 00:12:18.000 match that, or you rejuiced. 225 00:12:17.679 --> 00:12:19.159 To minda whatever. They didn't do their job. 226 00:12:19.200 --> 00:12:22.200 I mean, that's the reality, Jared, I completely agree with you. 227 00:12:22.200 --> 00:12:24.720 You and I had a conversation shortly that, you know before, 228 00:12:24.759 --> 00:12:27.799 and I had seen at least the frequency readouts and 229 00:12:27.879 --> 00:12:32.120 voltage readouts of what had transpired, and I told that 230 00:12:32.279 --> 00:12:35.080 I didn't think Red Electrica was operating the system correctly, 231 00:12:35.399 --> 00:12:38.399 and that's what led to it. And what Jared's I 232 00:12:38.399 --> 00:12:40.279 agree with the hundred percent is usual a mistake upon 233 00:12:40.360 --> 00:12:44.639 mistake upon mistake that caused the problem. But there are 234 00:12:44.679 --> 00:12:47.399 some things I can observe from it that part of 235 00:12:47.440 --> 00:12:51.279 its planning, part of it was system operation. And let 236 00:12:51.279 --> 00:12:54.080 me give you some examples. I saw that there were 237 00:12:54.240 --> 00:12:59.320 significant oscillations on the system. A grid operator's job is 238 00:12:59.360 --> 00:13:03.120 to make sure that doesn't happen. Now, what was causing 239 00:13:03.200 --> 00:13:06.440 those oscillations, I don't know yet, but there are ways 240 00:13:06.480 --> 00:13:09.600 to control them, and there are ways to mitigate them, 241 00:13:09.879 --> 00:13:13.759 and they probably should have had more resources on the 242 00:13:13.799 --> 00:13:16.320 system to make sure they could respond to such things. 243 00:13:16.360 --> 00:13:19.639 And that's a grid opera's first responsibility is to run 244 00:13:19.679 --> 00:13:25.080 the grid securely, secure from loss of resources, from resource issues, 245 00:13:25.240 --> 00:13:28.799 from loss of transmission. You do a regular I know 246 00:13:28.879 --> 00:13:33.159 in California we did in every five minute review of 247 00:13:33.279 --> 00:13:36.919 where we stood, and that's the secured operation of the system. 248 00:13:37.519 --> 00:13:41.279 So I don't know what was causing the oscillations, but 249 00:13:41.519 --> 00:13:46.279 the oscillations, in my opinion, led to the blackout. And 250 00:13:46.840 --> 00:13:50.679 the first thing that happened was a large solar resource 251 00:13:50.759 --> 00:13:53.879 of the system dropped off. And let me explain why 252 00:13:53.919 --> 00:13:57.039 that might happen and draw this back to California experience 253 00:13:57.039 --> 00:14:02.159 as well. Inverters have got to be properly programmed to 254 00:14:02.279 --> 00:14:05.240 be able to ride through a grid disturbance or they 255 00:14:05.240 --> 00:14:08.200 will drop off. And in one case, we actually had 256 00:14:08.600 --> 00:14:11.559 where a much larger system in California than Red electricas is, 257 00:14:11.720 --> 00:14:15.200 so we could absorb it, but we lost seventeen hundred 258 00:14:15.240 --> 00:14:18.679 megawatts of solar one time because we had a grid disturbance. 259 00:14:19.279 --> 00:14:22.919 And then we went about analyzing that and figured out 260 00:14:23.039 --> 00:14:27.200 that the inverters could be programmed to ride through these 261 00:14:27.240 --> 00:14:30.440 issues much better than they are, and so we did that. 262 00:14:30.960 --> 00:14:34.279 Now we shared that with the international community, and Frankly 263 00:14:34.320 --> 00:14:37.080 red electrically as part of that international community. We shared 264 00:14:37.120 --> 00:14:41.039 it with. What I don't know is if those inverters 265 00:14:41.360 --> 00:14:44.600 could have been programmed better and then you would not 266 00:14:44.799 --> 00:14:48.720 have the oscillations, but you would not have lost that 267 00:14:48.919 --> 00:14:52.919 large chunk of solar. That's my hypothesis. I don't know 268 00:14:53.039 --> 00:14:57.639 that for fact, but if the inverters were operating i'll 269 00:14:57.639 --> 00:15:00.679 call it within parameter, they would not have dropped off, 270 00:15:00.840 --> 00:15:04.720 and in fact, they would have provided some help in 271 00:15:04.840 --> 00:15:09.919 dampening those oscillations. So that goes to planning. First, you 272 00:15:10.000 --> 00:15:12.840 got to plan the system. Do I have the resources 273 00:15:13.000 --> 00:15:17.080 or they programmed correctly? Can they operate in these various 274 00:15:17.120 --> 00:15:20.279 scenarios one is an oscilling scenario or other kind of 275 00:15:20.279 --> 00:15:25.840 grid disturbance. Once then the solar dropped off the system, 276 00:15:25.960 --> 00:15:31.120 it was a classic blackout, which is frequency collapses all 277 00:15:31.360 --> 00:15:34.320 the generators drop off the system because they're automatic generation 278 00:15:34.440 --> 00:15:37.799 control tries to protect them, and you get a classic blackout, 279 00:15:38.200 --> 00:15:41.399 and that's what happened. I believe the blackout could have 280 00:15:41.440 --> 00:15:46.000 been arrested with appropriate planning and finding. I still don't 281 00:15:46.039 --> 00:15:47.960 know what caused the oscillation. We got to get to that. 282 00:15:48.440 --> 00:15:51.159 The final thing I'll say is if they could have 283 00:15:51.200 --> 00:15:54.679 solve this with additional thermal commitments. I don't know what 284 00:15:54.799 --> 00:15:57.519 else they had to thermally commit that would have provided 285 00:15:57.799 --> 00:16:03.879 some resources for care operation. Or they could have deployed 286 00:16:04.000 --> 00:16:06.840 batteries which they don't have. But this goes back to 287 00:16:07.440 --> 00:16:11.360 you cannot just throw renewables onto the system. You have 288 00:16:11.480 --> 00:16:15.080 to plan the system around the rubles, make sure you 289 00:16:15.120 --> 00:16:17.559 have the necessary voltage control, make sure you have the 290 00:16:17.600 --> 00:16:22.840 necessary synthetic inertia, and make sure you have quick reaction resources. 291 00:16:23.080 --> 00:16:26.759 If you're going to retire thermal plants gas plants as 292 00:16:26.799 --> 00:16:29.080 an example, you're going to have to have batteries. 293 00:16:29.759 --> 00:16:32.799 You made a very very varied point. In Spain there 294 00:16:32.799 --> 00:16:36.279 are thirty giga out of gas plants. I know there 295 00:16:36.279 --> 00:16:39.679 have been policy question about capacity payments, which have been 296 00:16:39.759 --> 00:16:43.360 shelved and are planned again. But when you don't have 297 00:16:43.440 --> 00:16:47.600 batteries when your interconnection are weak. Because the interconnection is 298 00:16:47.639 --> 00:16:50.759 only with France, and you have thirty giga out of ccgts, 299 00:16:51.039 --> 00:16:54.759 you need to run those ccgts thirty gigawaut You're not 300 00:16:54.799 --> 00:16:57.360 going to run all of them all the time. But look, 301 00:16:57.399 --> 00:16:59.720 id of know you're you're the experts, So what do 302 00:16:59.720 --> 00:17:01.120 you say again? 303 00:17:01.279 --> 00:17:04.240 There are multiple ways they could have operated the system 304 00:17:04.279 --> 00:17:07.640 more securely, and you're touching on one of them. Always 305 00:17:07.680 --> 00:17:11.079 when you're the grid operator, Do I have the necessary 306 00:17:11.200 --> 00:17:14.839 ramping or out ramping in the case of renewables on 307 00:17:14.880 --> 00:17:18.200 the system at all time? Do I have enough to 308 00:17:18.279 --> 00:17:21.079 respond to voltage issues? Do I have enough to respond 309 00:17:21.160 --> 00:17:25.079 to loss of resources whether it's transmission or generation all 310 00:17:25.160 --> 00:17:29.359 the time. So this is a constant evaluation of the system. 311 00:17:29.720 --> 00:17:34.839 And my perspective is they either miscalculated or they aren't 312 00:17:34.880 --> 00:17:37.039 doing that on a regular basis, because if they had, 313 00:17:37.079 --> 00:17:40.200 they probably wouldn't needed to commit more of those ccgts 314 00:17:40.680 --> 00:17:42.680 to make sure they have the resource to fall back on. 315 00:17:43.480 --> 00:17:46.359 And Lauren, to your point, it sounds like they had them, 316 00:17:46.640 --> 00:17:49.920 they just weren't committed. And the problem with a CCGT 317 00:17:50.720 --> 00:17:53.000 is it takes a while to get spun up anyway, 318 00:17:53.480 --> 00:17:56.960 and again that's a good comparison to a battery, which 319 00:17:57.000 --> 00:18:01.000 can come on in sub second and respond. So batteries 320 00:18:01.000 --> 00:18:04.519 are actually very, very very useful when you have a 321 00:18:04.640 --> 00:18:06.319 large renewable space system. 322 00:18:06.599 --> 00:18:09.920 So Steve, I suppose just asked to reflections on it, 323 00:18:10.119 --> 00:18:12.519 what do we need to do across the world that 324 00:18:12.640 --> 00:18:15.519 to make sure that this type of blackout doesn't happen 325 00:18:15.519 --> 00:18:18.319 in the future, Because Lauren said earlier on is we're 326 00:18:18.359 --> 00:18:21.519 definitely seeing more extreme weather events right across the world 327 00:18:21.559 --> 00:18:24.519 double one. And you could also say, just from a 328 00:18:24.799 --> 00:18:27.279 let's say a national security point of view, it is. 329 00:18:27.279 --> 00:18:30.759 Just unacceptable not to have electricity. The society falls apart 330 00:18:30.799 --> 00:18:32.440 without it. So what do you think we need to 331 00:18:32.480 --> 00:18:34.799 do to make the system more resilient. 332 00:18:35.440 --> 00:18:38.000 Fundamentally, we need to take the politics out of it, 333 00:18:38.200 --> 00:18:41.720 because when a grid operator like myself or what I 334 00:18:41.880 --> 00:18:46.359 used to do, I'd say that renewables are intermittent, you know, 335 00:18:46.400 --> 00:18:48.799 and then people would say I'm anti renewable. Well, no 336 00:18:48.839 --> 00:18:51.799 I'm not. But the fact of the matter is they're intermittent. 337 00:18:52.920 --> 00:18:55.920 Solar comes up, ramps up very heavily in the morning, 338 00:18:56.400 --> 00:19:02.119 and ramps down hard in the evening. That's not anti renewable. 339 00:19:02.240 --> 00:19:05.519 That's how it operates. And then I take that and 340 00:19:05.559 --> 00:19:09.039 I say, okay, if that's how it operates, how do 341 00:19:09.119 --> 00:19:12.279 I then design a reliable system around that? And there 342 00:19:12.359 --> 00:19:15.960 are ways to design a reliable system around that. One 343 00:19:16.079 --> 00:19:19.680 is operating the system securely knowing the intermittence that's inherent 344 00:19:19.720 --> 00:19:22.880 in them. That goes back around to your point. Then 345 00:19:22.920 --> 00:19:26.799 I gotta make sure I have the necessary backup resources committed, 346 00:19:27.599 --> 00:19:31.400 or I design something like batteries that can come to 347 00:19:31.480 --> 00:19:35.759 my rescue in cases where I don't have enough thermal 348 00:19:35.799 --> 00:19:38.279 backup and I can do something else. But I think 349 00:19:38.279 --> 00:19:40.359 people need to take the politics out of it, because 350 00:19:40.799 --> 00:19:43.880 let's not lie to ourselves. Renewables are intermittent. 351 00:19:44.200 --> 00:19:44.559 They are. 352 00:19:45.240 --> 00:19:48.440 That's okay, that's not bad. You just need to plan 353 00:19:48.519 --> 00:19:50.440 around it. And I think that's the thing that people 354 00:19:50.519 --> 00:19:53.480 miss is they get too political about it and then 355 00:19:53.720 --> 00:19:56.359 they forget about the planning around it. But there are 356 00:19:56.480 --> 00:19:58.720 a few fundamental things I need to do. One is, 357 00:19:58.880 --> 00:20:02.559 obviously you have to fill in around the intermittency. The 358 00:20:02.599 --> 00:20:05.079 second thing you have to do is make sure you 359 00:20:05.160 --> 00:20:09.079 have fast response resources to respond when things go south. 360 00:20:09.400 --> 00:20:11.240 Can I ask you about one other thing, which is 361 00:20:11.319 --> 00:20:14.119 this whole area of dunkel flout. In other words, when 362 00:20:14.119 --> 00:20:17.440 you've got no win, no soular for three days in 363 00:20:17.519 --> 00:20:18.680 winter months, what do you do? 364 00:20:18.920 --> 00:20:20.039 What's the solution there? 365 00:20:20.519 --> 00:20:23.599 The best solution there is operate regionally, and I think 366 00:20:23.720 --> 00:20:26.359 that Europe has actually does a much much better job 367 00:20:26.440 --> 00:20:28.880 than the US does. And the key to that is 368 00:20:28.960 --> 00:20:31.839 make sure you have enough interconnectivity between the regions to 369 00:20:31.960 --> 00:20:38.319 share resources. Because generally, generally, if you have I don't 370 00:20:38.359 --> 00:20:40.880 know the German term you used there, but I presume 371 00:20:40.960 --> 00:20:44.759 that means the calm winds and there's cloudy guys. So 372 00:20:45.599 --> 00:20:48.720 that's going to happen, but it may happen in Germany, 373 00:20:48.720 --> 00:20:50.480 but it's not going to happen in Spain and France 374 00:20:50.519 --> 00:20:54.680 at the same time. And so regional collaboration I think 375 00:20:54.839 --> 00:20:57.559 is absolutely the most important thing, and I think that 376 00:20:57.680 --> 00:20:59.640 Europe does it better than the US. I think the 377 00:20:59.759 --> 00:21:03.559 US US gets very political about who controls what and 378 00:21:03.599 --> 00:21:06.680 do all those kind of things. The West, as an example, 379 00:21:06.680 --> 00:21:10.720 in the US has thirty eight balancing authorities. That's crazy, 380 00:21:11.119 --> 00:21:14.799 it's inefficient, it cost people money, is bad for renewables. 381 00:21:15.599 --> 00:21:18.480 So my perspective is the best answers to operate regionally 382 00:21:19.079 --> 00:21:22.880 and Lauren, perhaps even a transmission line or from North 383 00:21:22.880 --> 00:21:23.920 America to Europe. 384 00:21:24.200 --> 00:21:27.799 Oh, yeah, definitely. It's as you said, it's all based 385 00:21:27.839 --> 00:21:30.839 on the fact that the peaks are not aligned and 386 00:21:30.960 --> 00:21:33.480 the wind doesn't blow at the same time. So the 387 00:21:33.519 --> 00:21:37.279 economics of a trans at antique into connectors are fantastic. Really, 388 00:21:37.559 --> 00:21:40.279 technically it's going to be difficult, but the strength is 389 00:21:40.319 --> 00:21:43.119 going to bring to both grids is phenomenal. 390 00:21:43.440 --> 00:21:45.799 Well, let's just go back to Spain again. If they 391 00:21:45.839 --> 00:21:49.079 had had additional connectors, they probably also wouldn't have had 392 00:21:49.119 --> 00:21:51.119 the problem. So there are multiple ways I think they 393 00:21:51.119 --> 00:21:52.759 could have avoided this problem. 394 00:21:53.200 --> 00:21:56.799 Look in Front in two twenty two, they lost thirty 395 00:21:56.839 --> 00:22:00.759 five gigawad of nuclear never had to blackout because they 396 00:22:00.799 --> 00:22:03.920 are in the middle of the continent and every country 397 00:22:04.039 --> 00:22:05.200 came to their rescue. 398 00:22:05.799 --> 00:22:08.880 It's the same way Jorge was just talking about in Germany. 399 00:22:08.960 --> 00:22:12.920 How does Germany survive the know when no solar days. Well, 400 00:22:12.960 --> 00:22:15.759 they're heavily connected to other parts of Europe, which I 401 00:22:15.759 --> 00:22:16.960