Speaker 1: What is up, fellow sikos, I am Dan Valley taking
Speaker 1: a break from finals coverage, taking a break from our
Speaker 1: offseason look aheads for every single team. Go check those
Speaker 1: out as they're rolling out if you have not already,
Speaker 1: to talk to the man, the myth, the legend, who's
Speaker 1: a real person though mister Keith Smith of spow Track
Speaker 1: follow him on the social zat Keith Smith NBA probably
Speaker 1: mispronounced bow Track. We go through this every single year spotrack.
Speaker 1: How are we doing this again?
Speaker 2: Spot track?
Speaker 1: It's a spot track NBA people.
Speaker 2: I think it's because of Eric Spolstra that they go
Speaker 2: do spow track, But it's spot.
Speaker 3: Track, spot track.
Speaker 1: Keith Smith of spot Track, who I've had on the
Speaker 1: podcast many times before and still just mispronounced the outlet
Speaker 1: that he's from. So we are here to hold the
Speaker 1: off season chaos Draft. We're just gonna alternate picks on
Speaker 1: teams that we think whether they define the offseason, we
Speaker 1: think they're gonna do something unhinged, but like they are
Speaker 1: definitely teams to watch for a multitude of reasons heading
Speaker 1: into the summer. But first, I think the question everyone
Speaker 1: wants to know the answer to, how the heck are
Speaker 1: you doing, Keith.
Speaker 2: I'm good man, I'm I'm glad to see you're on
Speaker 2: your feet, your house is still standing. I'm I'm I'm
Speaker 2: a little afraid of what may be after the Knicks
Speaker 2: look like they're gonna finish this this off. I think,
Speaker 2: you know, we may end up in a place where
Speaker 2: like it's gonna be like escape from New York after
Speaker 2: the next Knicks win. But it's uh, I mean, I'm
Speaker 2: it's funny. I I tell people any any radio or
Speaker 2: podcast appearents I've done. I don't care who wins. I
Speaker 2: was rooting for the Spurs after they went down to
Speaker 2: oh only just because I want more games, because the
Speaker 2: games have been so good. But like, it's pretty cool
Speaker 2: if the Knicks win. Like it's like, I know, I
Speaker 2: have a lot of Knicks fans in my life that
Speaker 2: head given up on. Like they're like, this is the
Speaker 2: one team I'm never gonna see win. Like they're like
Speaker 2: I've seen the Yankees win, I've seen the Giants win.
Speaker 2: The Knicks I'm never gonna see win. And it's like,
Speaker 2: and it's it's cool that they're right on the verge
Speaker 2: of it. So pretty fun stuff.
Speaker 1: It's a weird existence because the person who covers the
Speaker 1: league wants it to be a long series and was
Speaker 1: also a little worried that had the Knicks swept it,
Speaker 1: it wouldn't have been indicative of just how high level
Speaker 1: the basketball was because all.
Speaker 3: These games have been close.
Speaker 1: But the fan in me is, well, if they lose
Speaker 1: Game five and then it's just like then this bers
Speaker 1: just need to win Game six, and all of a
Speaker 1: sudden it's Game seven on the road, So I'm torn.
Speaker 1: I want them to win however they win, but the
Speaker 1: idea of them doing it at MSG would be cool.
Speaker 3: But it's also kind of surreal.
Speaker 1: And LA's probably because some of the things I said
Speaker 1: about the Knicks throughout the season that we watched them
Speaker 1: steamroll everybody. After Game three, by the way, I was
Speaker 1: in the building, well their streak is over now. For
Speaker 1: Game three of the Hawks, they lost and that was
Speaker 1: the last time they lost for like forty something days. Crazy,
Speaker 1: and just watching that game, I never could have predicted
Speaker 1: in a trillion years anything like this happen. So it's
Speaker 1: been wildly entertaining, and the series has been for all
Speaker 1: the complaining about the refereeing and who's dirty, who's getting
Speaker 1: away with? What the free throw stuff? This has been
Speaker 1: a hell of a series, Just a hell of a series.
Speaker 2: Yeah, super high level basketball with they're not always close
Speaker 2: the whole way through, but close at the end, and
Speaker 2: that's you know that, that's that's what we can.
Speaker 1: Does a Finals game really begin if the Knicks don't
Speaker 1: trail by double digits? Questions?
Speaker 2: It's funny, I want I told one of my best
Speaker 2: friends he's a huge Knicks fan, and I said, yeah,
Speaker 2: they actually feel really good. If the Spurs are up
Speaker 2: twenty after the first quarter, I'd be like, Okay, got
Speaker 2: them right where we want them. I was like, now,
Speaker 2: maybe at some point de luck runs out, and I
Speaker 2: think a bunch of the Knicks players have kind of
Speaker 2: said like, yeah, we'd rather not continue to follow these
Speaker 2: giant holes and have to dig ourselves out. But yeah,
Speaker 2: really it's it's it really has been a really fun finals.
Speaker 1: Keith, you are the guests, and because I'm just such
Speaker 1: a wonderful person, I'm going to give you the first pick.
Speaker 1: So which team are you taking with a number one
Speaker 1: overall pick in the offseason chaos draft?
Speaker 4: Yeah, it it pains me to pick them number one
Speaker 4: and any any facet, any fashion event, anything, because I
Speaker 4: at the end of the day still probably do bleed
Speaker 4: a little green as a Celtics guy.
Speaker 2: But I pick the Lakers. There. They're the Lakers, they
Speaker 2: have cap space, they have Lebron, Like, it's just like
Speaker 2: something wild is gonna happen here. That's I think gonna be.
Speaker 2: It's just because it's the Lakers. When the Lakers have
Speaker 2: cap space, big things happen. And then you've act factor
Speaker 2: in the whole Lebron of it all, Like, what does
Speaker 2: that all mean? I'm gonna take the Lakers.
Speaker 3: I think that's a good pick.
Speaker 1: And for all the reasons that you listed, I also
Speaker 1: wonder do you think there's a chance that it's also
Speaker 1: anti climactic where they look to kind of roll the flexibility. Okay,
Speaker 1: we keep Austin Reeves, Lebron's coming back, and they're rolling
Speaker 1: the flex waiting for the star they could trade for
Speaker 1: for flexibility of the year after they feel like the
Speaker 1: anti climactic possibility as well.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I absolutely could could play out that way. In fact,
Speaker 2: there's as this has all gone on for the last
Speaker 2: couple of months, I've started to really prepare myself more
Speaker 2: and more for that could be the way that this goes.
Speaker 2: But still it's one when the Lakers have cap space,
Speaker 2: like it's just it's it's a it's a thing. I
Speaker 2: can it's it's always gonna be a thing.
Speaker 1: Do you think if you were to predict right now
Speaker 1: that we'll end up looking back and say, oh, the
Speaker 1: Lakers did something significant other than re sign Austin Reeves
Speaker 1: to a max or near max deal.
Speaker 2: I think there's a good chance. I I think if
Speaker 2: there is a out of nowhere trade this time right like,
Speaker 2: think I'm not spoiling any future picks and not exactly
Speaker 2: tipping you up. I didn't know, did you know Giannis
Speaker 2: might get traded? Right like there's well, hold on, hold on,
Speaker 2: hold on what yeah, right outside of a Yannis trade,
Speaker 2: if there's a like holy crap, like one of those
Speaker 2: ones where it's like what happened? I think the Lakers
Speaker 2: good good chance they might be be the team that's
Speaker 2: involved in that. Whoa, that guy got traded kind of
Speaker 2: kind of moved just I think they're well positioned to
Speaker 2: be able to do something like that.
Speaker 1: Is there was also part of this because I've given
Speaker 1: some I haven't seen it talked about a ton, but
Speaker 1: they've changed a lot of the front office people. And
Speaker 1: so is there an element of does Mark Walter, Like,
Speaker 1: what's how's Rob Polinka feeling under Mark Walter right now?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I gotta guess there's probably some level of pressure,
Speaker 2: right like Mark Walter, I know there's all the genie's
Speaker 2: gonna really run the team. But at the end of
Speaker 2: the day, Mark Walter owns the team now, right, Like,
Speaker 2: so he's I don't I don't care who sits in
Speaker 2: the meetings. Two actually is the one who's like signing
Speaker 2: off on what we do. That's the person who really
Speaker 2: runs the team. It's important to note he didn't hire
Speaker 2: Rob Polinka, right doesn't have the attachments to Rob Polinka
Speaker 2: through Kobe Bryant. And although those you know, through lines
Speaker 2: that run through all that. So yeah, I could absolutely
Speaker 2: see Rob Plink feeling like he's under some pressure. And
Speaker 2: it's it's you know, eventually, at some point it's gonna
Speaker 2: be are if we're not we're the Lakers. If we're
Speaker 2: not in the finals and having chances to win, we're
Speaker 2: not good enough and we got to get to people
Speaker 2: here who will get us there, and that there will
Speaker 2: be a change of eventually.
Speaker 1: With pick number two, I'm trying to select the peop
Speaker 1: where I think I know this team is gonna do
Speaker 1: something splashy. I'm going with the Brooklyn Nets, another catch
Speaker 1: based team, so an obvious choicement extent, But they also
Speaker 1: not only do they not own their own first round
Speaker 1: pick next year, but you can't point to anyone on
Speaker 1: the roster right now and say this is the player
Speaker 1: around whom we want to build. But you also don't know,
Speaker 1: well one, you have to probably assume they won't get
Speaker 1: that player at number six, So it's not like they
Speaker 1: have a top four, top five selection where you feel
Speaker 1: maybe better about them finding that player and following a
Speaker 1: gradual course. So you kind of have to sit there
Speaker 1: and wonder, are they gonna make a big trade, are
Speaker 1: they gonna do something frivolous during free agency, or will
Speaker 1: it be we're gonna fall, We're just gonna stay at
Speaker 1: the current court. Of course, we've seen Shawn Marks do
Speaker 1: that before him they didn't have picks, But now we're
Speaker 1: moving beyond.
Speaker 3: A decade later, and I'm assuming that.
Speaker 1: I mean, the way people talk about Shawn Marks now
Speaker 1: is so much different from like five or six years ago.
Speaker 1: I have to imagine the pressure in Brooklyn is being
Speaker 1: ratcheted up. I don't know what that looks like, but
Speaker 1: just between the cap space, not having their own pick
Speaker 1: and not having a franchise cornerstone in place, I feel
Speaker 1: like we could just see, like trades signed, things could
Speaker 1: just get absolutely wild for them.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's a great pick. There's also a
Speaker 2: factor in you can no longer sell the idea of
Speaker 2: we're gonna be really bad because you can't do that
Speaker 2: in the new lottery reform. You can't goin with that
Speaker 2: being your plan, and you can't sell a we're gonna
Speaker 2: be really bad for multiple years because you also can't
Speaker 2: that can't be a thing either. So I think, Yeah,
Speaker 2: I think a lot of these teams, I think, more
Speaker 2: than anything else with the lottery reform, I'm very curious
Speaker 2: to see how teams rebuild now, Like how does it
Speaker 2: because it for decades now, the way you rebuild is
Speaker 2: trade to weigh your best players for younger players or
Speaker 2: draft picks. You stink for a period of time. Sometimes
Speaker 2: it's a year or two, sometimes it's a decade or
Speaker 2: two if you're the Kings, and then you just kind
Speaker 2: of like then you build back up right, and it's
Speaker 2: now you're in a spot where it is like it
Speaker 2: really becomes can't do that anymore.
Speaker 3: It's just not a way of works.
Speaker 1: So who are you gonna take with the third pick?
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with with with the hometown team with Boston.
Speaker 3: Here's why.
Speaker 2: Maybe it is Giannis, I don't know, but they're gonna
Speaker 2: do something. Brad Stevens, who is maybe the most even
Speaker 2: keeled individual I've met covering the league my entire life,
Speaker 2: where there are times you could you could question if
Speaker 2: you didn't know him, like does this guy like does
Speaker 2: he care? Like he just he's never too high, he's
Speaker 2: never too low. Yes, he didn't come in banging the
Speaker 2: table and screaming and yelling at their postseason media, but
Speaker 2: he's like, we're not good enough and we're not good
Speaker 2: enough for what we should be and was like, look,
Speaker 2: we overachieved, but then reset the bar. We didn't do
Speaker 2: it like, just was not happy, and then went into
Speaker 2: we need to change the way we play. We don't
Speaker 2: put enough pressure on the rim. We need to get
Speaker 2: more layup s, dunks and free throws, like, yes, that
Speaker 2: could be honest maybe maybe there is something there. I
Speaker 2: don't know. We'll find out, but I just think he
Speaker 2: is in a place where it is we are not.
Speaker 2: I'm not saying they're blowing the team up, but just
Speaker 2: if they want to make meaningful changes, they're gonna have
Speaker 2: to look pretty different, and I think there's a real
Speaker 2: chance that happens this summer.
Speaker 1: Is there a possibility then that they would because they're
Speaker 1: so top heavy in salary when you're looking at the
Speaker 1: matching tools, is there a chance then that they would
Speaker 1: trade Jail and Brown? And it's not free, honest, it's
Speaker 1: breaking him up into two or three players or something.
Speaker 3: Because that I don't know how else.
Speaker 1: I guess you could try to do that with Derek White,
Speaker 1: but I'd be curious what is true he value is
Speaker 1: after this season, with what's left on his contract. That's
Speaker 1: what's fascinating about Boston to me, is like I've just
Speaker 1: for years, even remember break up the Jays a couple
Speaker 1: of years ago, probably before they won the title. I've
Speaker 1: just dismissed it, and now I'm wondering, oh is their
Speaker 1: legs today?
Speaker 3: And I honestly don't.
Speaker 1: I don't know if there's like a good reason why
Speaker 1: I should wonder why, Like is this like they they
Speaker 1: haven't had Tatum back for a full season. They did
Speaker 1: look pretty dominant at stretches. But I guess if you
Speaker 1: want to make a material change to the way you're playing,
Speaker 1: Jalen Brown is kind of like the guy at this
Speaker 1: point with which to do that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, if for no other reason, he makes basically twice
Speaker 2: as much as Derek White. So if you're talking about
Speaker 2: breaking Derek White up into two or three guys, you're
Speaker 2: talking like ten, twelve to fifteen million that's coming back.
Speaker 2: We take Jaylen Brown and makes almost sixty million dollars,
Speaker 2: you're turning it into here's a couple guys who make
Speaker 2: twenty five thirty million dollars, right, So that changes things
Speaker 2: in a very big way. I think here's where I'm
Speaker 2: at with all this. If at some point in the
Speaker 2: next few weeks it comes down the Celtics traded Jalen
Speaker 2: Brown for Jannis. If it is mostly Jalen Brown for Yannis, okay,
Speaker 2: it's a worthy swing, right, and I'm gonna let's see
Speaker 2: what it looks like. I'm gonna trust in it. If
Speaker 2: it is Jalen Brown plus plus plus for Yannis, No
Speaker 2: stay away, Like you don't need to be trading multiple
Speaker 2: first round picks or multiple of the young players that
Speaker 2: look like they have really good potential, Like that doesn't
Speaker 2: need to be a thing. That's then. That's the same
Speaker 2: way I felt about Jalen Brown for Kevin Durant a
Speaker 2: couple of years ago. It was all right, if you're
Speaker 2: gonna trade him straight up, all right, I can get
Speaker 2: behind that, I can understand. But if you're trading them
Speaker 2: for Kevin Durant and you're also trading out multiple other things,
Speaker 2: I just can't get there. Now. I can also get
Speaker 2: there if it is at some point traded Jalen Brown
Speaker 2: and we broke that contract up into three rotation guys
Speaker 2: and two are gonna start or whatever it is. Okay, sure.
Speaker 2: I think what is most likely to happen with the Celtics,
Speaker 2: which runs counter to why I picked them, is they
Speaker 2: run it back. They use their big trade exception, they
Speaker 2: use their mid level exception something to bring in another
Speaker 2: really good player, and then it's moves around the edges
Speaker 2: that that's probably what is most likely. But because the
Speaker 2: potential exists for them to go kind of crazy and
Speaker 2: Brett Stevens was so mad, which I've never really seen
Speaker 2: him like that since he took over the GM role. There,
Speaker 2: it's definitely a world ward. Things get a little crazy.
Speaker 1: I just I guess if it was technically straight up
Speaker 1: or as close to straight up as it could be,
Speaker 1: I understand the honest wing, but you're just you're trunk
Speaker 1: kating your window so much. It feels like so you're
Speaker 1: getting the better player, but for how long? And it's
Speaker 1: also how many He wasn't in the playoffs last year,
Speaker 1: so this can't count, but then previously too, he doesn't finish,
Speaker 1: isn't available by the end of the two other playoff
Speaker 1: runs because of it aris that's just and after going
Speaker 1: through Jason Tatum having this series serious Achilles injury, I don't.
Speaker 3: I get the idea.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I might understand it, like you said, if
Speaker 1: it was close to straight up, but I don't even
Speaker 1: think I'm necessarily on board with it. If it would
Speaker 1: be a close to straight up deal.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm only on board with it because try something different,
Speaker 2: like it's I you know, there's a ward where I hope,
Speaker 2: I don't know five years from now to who knows
Speaker 2: how long guys are gonna play anymore. It's like, oh,
Speaker 2: that's now I'm having to even beyond Lebron, who's probably
Speaker 2: gonna play until he's seventy. Like you are, like, You're like,
Speaker 2: we have to reframe all of this, Like guys are
Speaker 2: guys are nowhere near done at thirty dude, Some guys
Speaker 2: are nowhere near done at thirty five. So like, I
Speaker 2: don't want I was gonna say, five more years of
Speaker 2: Tatum and Brown and then they both retire, but that
Speaker 2: feels even like low, So I don't know, seven eight
Speaker 2: more years of it and then they they eventually both
Speaker 2: move on. I would love it if they played it
Speaker 2: out the whole way in Boston. But what I think
Speaker 2: everybody would love even more is winning another title, right,
Speaker 2: And it's like it's that that that where for me
Speaker 2: if I think they think this puts them closer like it,
Speaker 2: it's like, let's let's go, let's get it done.
Speaker 1: For the fourth pick, I'm gonna go with a couple
Speaker 1: of teams. Who's the right pick here? I'm just gonna
Speaker 1: go with another potential Yannis team in the Miami Heat.
Speaker 1: It's kind of shit or get off the pop time,
Speaker 1: I think for them I'm not very much on board
Speaker 1: with every summer you have to trade a star or
Speaker 1: it's meaningless. We've seen enough of just they either have
Speaker 1: a player in Jimmy Butler who you're waiting, you're hoping, Okay,
Speaker 1: if we get the seventh seed, he'll he'll peak in
Speaker 1: time for the plan, which that's not a sustainable model
Speaker 1: as we saw, and now it's we're waiting for them
Speaker 1: to get a best player on a what could be
Speaker 1: a title caliber team or something close to it. I
Speaker 1: love bam Adebayo offensively, he just can't be that.
Speaker 3: And he's also had.
Speaker 2: To scored eighty eighty whatever was I now, I don't
Speaker 2: even remember, was it eighty.
Speaker 1: Three eighty three? But listen, he should have stopped at
Speaker 1: the Kobe number. I thought it was disrespectful that he
Speaker 1: kept going.
Speaker 3: That was just so.
Speaker 1: I I don't if you don't get Yannis one, actually,
Speaker 1: let me start here. If you get Yannis, the packages
Speaker 1: that are being floated around out there for your honest
Speaker 1: I don't know how much.
Speaker 3: Better the heat are.
Speaker 1: If Tyler heroes going out, I'm assuming you're even if
Speaker 1: you bring back Norman Powell. If jim Hawks Junior is
Speaker 1: gone you still kind of need a primary creator on
Speaker 1: the roster. Then the spacing could end up being bunked.
Speaker 1: I'm bam and Giannis will figure it out defensively. They'll
Speaker 1: figure it out offensively. But you're very like you're you're
Speaker 1: traveling a very fine line there. So I'm not thrilled
Speaker 1: about what the heat might look like after Yannis. There
Speaker 1: needs to be other moves lined up. But then you
Speaker 1: ask yourself, well, what what are they going to be
Speaker 1: left with to do if you don't get Yannis? There's
Speaker 1: a bunch of different ways they could go. Is there
Speaker 1: another star that fits that becomes available they could go after?
Speaker 1: Do they make the wrong move because they're so over
Speaker 1: aggressive and they refuse to rebuild? Does the R word
Speaker 1: actually get uttered there and they hit reset? Do they
Speaker 1: just end up taking a distressed asset type guy where
Speaker 1: it's they trade for a zion, they trade for a rant.
Speaker 1: This team is all over the place, and I don't
Speaker 1: I honestly don't know how they seem like the Yianni's
Speaker 1: favorite right now. But if they don't get yannest I
Speaker 1: don't even know what I would predict that they do.
Speaker 2: That's a great, great point and that was one of
Speaker 2: the things that I was asked. I've done a couple
Speaker 2: of different Heat shows recently, and one of the things
Speaker 2: that both both shows asked was like, if it's not Yannis,
Speaker 2: what next? And my thing is, I'm like, I don't know.
Speaker 2: I think you're probably trying to sell the fan base
Speaker 2: on or we're gonna try to kind of run it back. Right,
Speaker 2: we might overpay Norman Powell for a year and then
Speaker 2: at least we we have him and Hero and then
Speaker 2: we'll have you know, there's worlds where they conve like
Speaker 2: seventy million in cap space in the summer twenty twenty seven,
Speaker 2: and and if I'm a Heat fan, I'm like, uh,
Speaker 2: we just kind of did a year without making the playoffs.
Speaker 2: The last couple of years, I haven't been very good, Like,
Speaker 2: you know, the last time we were good was now
Speaker 2: like a few years ago, Like what are we doing?
Speaker 2: And I think that's where it does get, you know,
Speaker 2: kind of tough, like they I think because they made
Speaker 2: those couple of runs, and they made the runs from
Speaker 2: like the eighth seed, we are still like those are
Speaker 2: still with us in our memory. They haven't been very
Speaker 2: good since twenty twenty two. When they made the finals.
Speaker 2: They they've not been you know, a great team since then,
Speaker 2: and like last year they really weren't very good. So
Speaker 2: like I do wonder, at what point does patients run
Speaker 2: out with the fan base where it's like, uh, you
Speaker 2: know what we'd like is rather than sell all this,
Speaker 2: we're gonna go get somebody. We'll go get somebody, right
Speaker 2: instead of going to do it, go do it.
Speaker 1: But then you don't want to hear oh they gave
Speaker 1: up how many first round picks they get?
Speaker 3: Zion in the building.
Speaker 1: It's just like, who would be your next pick?
Speaker 2: Sir, I'm stuck between two? Here I go with Denver. Oh,
Speaker 2: they have to do something clear money like it's as.
Speaker 1: Much just fire their entire broadcast crew because it seems
Speaker 1: like they did that already.
Speaker 2: And it's yeah, that's a whole other thing. But for me,
Speaker 2: I am this is where I have to separate from
Speaker 2: what I would do versus what I think they will
Speaker 2: do if it was me. Pay the tax I have
Speaker 2: Nikolay Jokic.
Speaker 1: You only just have one of the three greatest basketball
Speaker 1: players a lot. How would you pay the tags or
Speaker 1: the same everything I have with them?
Speaker 2: And and to be fair, they have paid the tax
Speaker 2: like I think could ask got lumped is like they've
Speaker 2: never even paid the tax like they have, but they
Speaker 2: just they don't want to go deep into the tax.
Speaker 2: I would go deep into the tax. I'd resign Peyton
Speaker 2: Watson for whatever the number needs to be, and I'd
Speaker 2: run it back with the ross I have and hope
Speaker 2: for better health. And with better health, I think this
Speaker 2: team is way better going into you know.
Speaker 3: The postseason.
Speaker 2: What I think is really gonna happen is Cam Johnson
Speaker 2: or Christian Brown, one of the two of them is
Speaker 2: out of there, because that's gonna be how they're gonna
Speaker 2: create the wiggle room underneath the aprons to feel good
Speaker 2: about resigning Peyton Watson. And for me, that becomes all right,
Speaker 2: then what else happened? So you're gonna then be like, well,
Speaker 2: we can't really resign Tim Hardley Junior because we don't
Speaker 2: want to use the tax by Emily for real reasons
Speaker 2: and all those things. So if that's where it all
Speaker 2: starts to go, that's for me, that starts from a
Speaker 2: little a little too much sideways. And I think there
Speaker 2: is there is a world where I think if somebody
Speaker 2: called them with the exact right offer for Jamal Murray
Speaker 2: or Aaron Gordon, and it also can save them a
Speaker 2: little bit of money to retool the rest of the roster.
Speaker 2: I could see them saying, all right, let's do it.
Speaker 2: We've we've done this for I don't know what are
Speaker 2: we seventy eight years in with kind of this core
Speaker 2: together for the most part, Like we did win the
Speaker 2: title once, but if we want to win again with
Speaker 2: the Oakitch, we're gonna retool by moving one of those guys.
Speaker 2: So again, it's just it's not super likely, super likely
Speaker 2: that somebody out of Brown or Johnson goes I think.
Speaker 2: But the big yo, oh my gosh, they traded Jamal
Speaker 2: Mary kind of move, I'm not gonna take it off
Speaker 2: the table.
Speaker 1: I and I think based off how they've transacted in
Speaker 1: the past, where they've done a really good job. Just
Speaker 1: I think based off a lot of the fan bases response.
Speaker 1: I know that the fan base is frustrated with them too,
Speaker 1: but they've been able to sell these cost cutting trades
Speaker 1: as also upgrades, and sometimes it's worked out like the
Speaker 1: KCP trade. They saved the money and made a roster upgrade. Yep,
Speaker 1: that's great. The Michael Porter junior Cam Johnson trade. You
Speaker 1: can say that it was a they did an they
Speaker 1: got a good enough player back that it made financial
Speaker 1: sense without really gutting the core of the team. But
Speaker 1: you used your last best enticing trade chip to do it,
Speaker 1: and what are we doing a year later we're talking
Speaker 1: about them having a trim finances all over again, and
Speaker 1: so I don't know that you can, oh, go ahead.
Speaker 2: Hand up. I thought that was like, oh my gosh,
Speaker 2: this is a great trade, Like they saved all this
Speaker 2: money and Cam Johnson's gonna be awesome for them. I
Speaker 2: was in that camp, so like, I just want to know,
Speaker 2: like I'm an idiot like a lot of other people.
Speaker 1: I was not in that camp, but I was open
Speaker 1: mind because I love Cam Johnson. But I just thought
Speaker 1: that you needed someone who is going to be more
Speaker 1: of a definitive upgrade if you were using that trade ship.
Speaker 1: And I just didn't look at it as from yeah,
Speaker 1: the financial savings made sense, but you did that, and
Speaker 1: now we're still here a year later and you're looking
Speaker 1: to cut costs over again. So I think they will
Speaker 1: trade at least one of their starters, and I would
Speaker 1: wouldn't shock me if they're looking at that Murray and
Speaker 1: Gordon contract as these second tier type of or third
Speaker 1: tier type of star guys in the current Aprons climate.
Speaker 1: I honestly, I wouldn't predict it, but I'm like only
Speaker 1: sixty forty on both Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon being
Speaker 1: back in Denver next season.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think that's fair. I will say when
Speaker 2: I wrote their off season preview, because I dove into, like, well,
Speaker 2: what did everything really work? Kim Johnson put up career
Speaker 2: high shooting numbers last year. I don't know if anybody
Speaker 2: actually knows that because, like get he's.
Speaker 3: Just like their most reliable player. By the end of
Speaker 3: the playoffs team.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it felt like it was this god awful
Speaker 2: fit and everything fell apart because of that. But like
Speaker 2: he yeah, he got hurt and he didn't play a lot.
Speaker 2: He played fifty some odd games, but like he was
Speaker 2: pretty good. Like when he played his counting stats were
Speaker 2: all down, but that was his role was different, right, Yeah,
Speaker 2: but the Natzy took whatever shots he wanted and all that.
Speaker 2: But yeah, career high from the floor and career high
Speaker 2: from three.
Speaker 1: So I will say he I don't know if he
Speaker 1: osmosised it from MPJ himself, but he, like MPJ, is
Speaker 1: the like the streakiest, best all time shooter.
Speaker 3: I think I've ever watched.
Speaker 1: Where you don't trust that it's gonna go in, and
Speaker 1: Cam Johnson had some bad misses from three to two
Speaker 1: for someone who shot such a high clip. The next
Speaker 1: pick for me, it's tough. I think I'm gonna go. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go here the Oklahoma City Thunder. So just
Speaker 1: depending on your mile edge, on what you have their
Speaker 1: cap sheet at, like they're thirty plus million into the
Speaker 1: second apron, I don't I don't know what's not on
Speaker 1: the table for them, aside from We're not gonna move
Speaker 1: Shay Gilden Alexander. I doubt they would entertain offers for
Speaker 1: a chet Holme Grin or a J. Dub, But they're
Speaker 1: trying to figure out a way to keep Isaiah Hartenstein,
Speaker 1: and I see all the players being bandied about if
Speaker 1: you just get rid of Let's just assume they just
Speaker 1: get rid of Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah.
Speaker 3: Joe and Lou Dort. Those are all good players.
Speaker 1: Who like help make up the meat and potatoes of
Speaker 1: a rotation that is all of a sudden then reliant
Speaker 1: on a bunch of younger guys who are cost controlled.
Speaker 1: We haven't seen Thomas Sorber, We've barely seen Nicolo Topicch.
Speaker 1: There's also Cason Wallace's extension eligibility, and what do we
Speaker 1: know about ok See Keith. They tend to extend guys
Speaker 1: or trade them, so what's gonna happen there? And if
Speaker 1: you're extending him, what does that mean for like the
Speaker 1: gluttony of other guards on the word like, surely lou
Speaker 1: Dort won't be.
Speaker 3: Back then, but how are you getting rid of lud Doort?
Speaker 1: Is it declining the team option or actively trading him?
Speaker 1: Is there a chance I Saiyah Heart and Stein's not
Speaker 1: on this team next year? Is there a chance they
Speaker 1: make an aggressive play to move up because they have
Speaker 1: two first round picks. They don't have enough roster spots
Speaker 1: right now if they just wanted to bring everybody back.
Speaker 1: I don't know what the biggest move they're gonna make is.
Speaker 1: But I think we look back and this would be
Speaker 1: a big deal for oka See and we could identify,
Speaker 1: Oh they traded like or you got rid of two
Speaker 1: guys that were in the top eight of their rotation,
Speaker 1: which is not nothing.
Speaker 2: I'm with you. I've been saying four months now of
Speaker 2: their I kind of bucketed five guys as the decision
Speaker 2: points on this roster. And yeah, you could do other
Speaker 2: things like move Thomas Sorber or move Nikolotopitch if they
Speaker 2: wanted to. There's just there's no value in doing that.
Speaker 2: So when I look at it, of the three guys
Speaker 2: with team options, so Hardenstein, Dort, then ken Rich Williams,
Speaker 2: and then Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe, We're both on
Speaker 2: contracts that are very tradable, but neither one could crack
Speaker 2: the rotation by the end of the playoff run. I
Speaker 2: have said two out of five are gonna be gone
Speaker 2: next year. I think it's gonna be loud Ort. I
Speaker 2: think it's just something's got to give with those contracts.
Speaker 2: Hartenstein's way too important. They don't have anything resembling a
Speaker 2: replacement for him on the roster in order. I think
Speaker 2: they could go get someone to replace him. I'm in
Speaker 2: free agency or via trade that makes a lot of sense.
Speaker 2: I'm with you, Home grind Williams SGA that none of
Speaker 2: that's happening. Sam Sam Presty if and I've learned to
Speaker 2: take a lot of what GM say at started the offseason,
Speaker 2: like in one ear and out the other. But he
Speaker 2: was pretty clear, and he's generally been pretty pretty candid
Speaker 2: and upfront where he is. David basically said, look, we're
Speaker 2: not doing this like these are our guys, and and
Speaker 2: I do like we all need to take a step
Speaker 2: back and remember I'm on the title. Last year, they
Speaker 2: were in game seven of the Western Conference Finals without
Speaker 2: Jaileen missings, Like yeah, like it's not like all of
Speaker 2: a sudden, it's like, oh man, they washed out in
Speaker 2: the first round and they're miles away like they're they're
Speaker 2: they're really really good. So yeah, so I but I'm
Speaker 2: with you. There's definitely change coming in Okay see for
Speaker 2: sure what it is, I don't know, but definitely gonna
Speaker 2: be They're gonna look a little bit different.
Speaker 1: And I would be remiss if I didn't admit I
Speaker 1: will root for nothing to happen, because they do have
Speaker 1: the option of just paying the bill for this roster
Speaker 1: like that they could They're not going to, but they
Speaker 1: could do that.
Speaker 3: That is on the table.
Speaker 1: I did want to ask you this should be a
Speaker 1: Paywalld question, but I'm not gonna make it a Paywalld question,
Speaker 1: would you trade Jalen Williams J Dubb for the number
Speaker 1: one pick in this year's draft?
Speaker 2: Oh? Probably not.
Speaker 3: I don't think I would either.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I am. I am extremely riskd verse. So for me,
Speaker 2: I know, Jalen Williams is awesome. Like I'm gonna take
Speaker 2: out the injury stuff this year because he he had
Speaker 2: the risk stuff to start the year and then the
Speaker 2: hamstring injuries. He's great. So for me, I don't in
Speaker 2: his contract is fine. I don't care that he's on
Speaker 2: a max deals. He earned it. Yeah, what is the
Speaker 2: Brian Windhors call it the so Yeah, I just I
Speaker 2: don't want to trade the short thing for the unknown.
Speaker 2: And I my number one guy in the draft is
Speaker 2: aj Devonsa, Like I think he's gonna be awesome. Hey,
Speaker 2: but for me, especially for the thunder Nope, not taking
Speaker 2: the chance on the potential over But what.
Speaker 1: I know, Uh, we each have two picks left.
Speaker 3: What is your next pick, sir?
Speaker 2: I'm going to go with the Clippers only because if
Speaker 2: a ruling comes down here in the next couple of
Speaker 2: weeks that like we're avoiding Kawhi's contract what happens? Like,
Speaker 2: is it that fared everybody else? Because now the Clippers
Speaker 2: could have like ninety million in cap space, Like where
Speaker 2: like where do we go? If that's what happens? What
Speaker 2: you know? I mean for me being the transaction CBA
Speaker 2: roster nerd that I am like, it's almost like I
Speaker 2: kind of wanted to happen only to see like how
Speaker 2: does the NBA handle it? But it is just again,
Speaker 2: are they gonna trade Kawhi? Are they gonna keep Kawhi?
Speaker 2: How are they gonna rebuild around Kawhi in Garland? Like
Speaker 2: what's that gonna look like? Bennick matherin super interesting? Guys
Speaker 2: are restricted free agent, Like I you know, we're four
Speaker 2: years in and I have no idea what his value is.
Speaker 2: Like it's just kind of all over the place. So yeah,
Speaker 2: it's there's just a lot of fun stuff that could
Speaker 2: happen with that.
Speaker 3: What is would be though?
Speaker 1: So let's just say, actually I wanted to ask you this.
Speaker 1: I don't know if you saw that, uh the aspiration?
Speaker 3: What was his name?
Speaker 1: A guy went to prison for fourteen is a good
Speaker 1: sentence of fourteen years now, right?
Speaker 3: Got it? Joe Samberg?
Speaker 1: Yeah, and Steve Bomber's camp like wrote a note basically
Speaker 1: defaming him and like how he couldn't be trusted. I
Speaker 1: wonder if while the NBA came out and wrote things
Speaker 1: about how he basically cooperated with their investigation, and I
Speaker 1: looked at that, maybe I'm reading too much into it,
Speaker 1: and I was like, if Steve Bomber's camp is putting
Speaker 1: out these things about it, that probably doesn't bode well
Speaker 1: for what he said to the NBA then, right, And
Speaker 1: so I was curious, does this make it more likely
Speaker 1: we see it really like something that damages the Clippers.
Speaker 1: But then the way Adam Silver was talking leading into
Speaker 1: the finals, I think it was made me think, oh,
Speaker 1: they're not He's like readying us for nothing is gonna
Speaker 1: happen here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I thought it was interesting too when Adam
Speaker 2: Silver said like, we're gonna trust the facts and not
Speaker 2: the public opinion and all that, which is all right
Speaker 2: in general, that's probably how things should work, you know.
Speaker 2: That gets us in a lot less trouble if we
Speaker 2: just trust what we actually know. But I think he
Speaker 2: also I don't think what was this quote was like,
Speaker 2: but I realized, like, we got to get this thing
Speaker 2: wrapped up like this can't take months and months further,
Speaker 2: because he said the Clippers and the other twenty nine
Speaker 2: teams all need clarity on what's gonna happen with this one.
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's gonna be tough. It's gonna be one
Speaker 2: of those where if they're like they come out now
Speaker 2: and say we just couldn't find enough to convict the
Speaker 2: Clippers in the NBA court and punish them, you know,
Speaker 2: very heavily, fans are gonna scream and yell that like,
Speaker 2: oh forget it. You know, everyone's gonna tamper and it's
Speaker 2: not gonna be enough. And if they did, what how
Speaker 2: would almost rather have that? Then? Well we think they
Speaker 2: were kind of bad, so you lose the second round
Speaker 2: pick Like that's I think would enrage me and shouldn't
Speaker 2: rage people even more than the idea of like, yeah, guys,
Speaker 2: it is like we just couldn't. We can't, like we
Speaker 2: don't have enough concrete proof to punish them, And I
Speaker 2: know people won't like that, but yeah, that sometimes that's
Speaker 2: the way life goes.
Speaker 1: The other reason I like this pick too is I
Speaker 1: know everyone has them built is could they trade KAUWHI
Speaker 1: assuming nothing happens with the Aspiration investigation.
Speaker 3: Could they go I don't what is the.
Speaker 1: Incentive for them to trade Kawhi when they're not gonna
Speaker 1: have control with their own pick next year? Could they
Speaker 1: go the other way and do something? We have Kawhi,
Speaker 1: we have Darius Garland, and we have a top five pick.
Speaker 1: Are we trying to do something immediately next season? They're
Speaker 1: kind of like a like a sneaky offseason wildcard beyond
Speaker 1: the everyone's just identified, Oh is there a team that
Speaker 1: wants Kawhi? It's well, what if the Clippers want to
Speaker 1: try and win next year? Like do they try to
Speaker 1: do something semi aggressive?
Speaker 2: Yeah? I think there is a chance. I think yeah,
Speaker 2: because if you're the Clippers, what good does the fifth
Speaker 2: pick after you if you're still building around Kawhi Leonard?
Speaker 2: Like it does just I mean right at Miles j
Speaker 2: may vary own who you think it should be. Most
Speaker 2: people seem to be settling, and it's probably like Eaton Woggler.
Speaker 2: He's probably gonna be a good player eventually. You know,
Speaker 2: he's ready to play right now day one. So yeah,
Speaker 2: if I'm the Clippers, it's like, does this really have
Speaker 2: a lot of value to me? Like where where do
Speaker 2: I want to go? So, yeah, I think we're gonna
Speaker 2: We're in a place where it is like I I think,
Speaker 2: how do I frame this? I think it's with the Clippers.
Speaker 2: It should be a you know, position of let's if
Speaker 2: we're keeping Kawhi. Yeah, that pic should be on the
Speaker 2: table and let's go for it. Let's let's try to
Speaker 2: go get help to kind of build us up.
Speaker 1: My pen ultimate pick I low hanging through, but one
Speaker 1: of us probably has to go here.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna pick the Bucks.
Speaker 1: They are trading a top five player, it's going to happen.
Speaker 1: What they do beyond that will be curious. I'm where
Speaker 1: it could get chaotic is are they able to move
Speaker 1: anyone else as part of that Yanni steal or in
Speaker 1: separate deals.
Speaker 3: I also think it gets fairly chaotic.
Speaker 1: I don't know what their appetite is for getting their
Speaker 1: own picks back now that there's been lottery reform. But
Speaker 1: if they decide to rope in the Blazers and this
Speaker 1: just becomes like a four or five or six team trade,
Speaker 1: that gets ultra complicated. The other thing, too, is I
Speaker 1: want to see what they prioritiz Let's say they don't
Speaker 1: get their own picks back. What are you prioritizing because
Speaker 1: you don't own your own picks? Is it players? Is
Speaker 1: it other teams's draft picks? Is it other teams as
Speaker 1: young prospects? And then Keith, I just want to see
Speaker 1: the return because I keep going through my head. You
Speaker 1: mentioned the Celtics before we talked about the heat package.
Speaker 1: I think Giannis is a transcendent basketball player, and I
Speaker 1: basically think every hypothetical package I've heard, I've come away
Speaker 1: thinking I just wouldn't give that up for him, which
Speaker 1: is so weird to think about. I want to see
Speaker 1: how much does he actively go for. And after months
Speaker 1: of hearing sectors of Bucks media and fandom say, well,
Speaker 1: Evin Moley wouldn't be good enough as a centerpiece, chet Holmgren,
Speaker 1: Shirley isn't good enough as a centerpiece.
Speaker 3: What do you think you're getting? Who do you think
Speaker 3: you're getting?
Speaker 1: So I really want to see what the package ends
Speaker 1: up being here. And by the way, the other chaotic
Speaker 1: fact would be do they just send him somewhere that
Speaker 1: he doesn't want to go? And now all of a
Speaker 1: sudden we're wondering was he even gonna sign an extension?
Speaker 1: Could next summer be super interesting.
Speaker 2: Now I think that's him play too. And I my
Speaker 2: big believer when you are the team, if player doesn't
Speaker 2: have no trade clause, yes, if you can send them
Speaker 2: somewhere they want to go in it's a good, good return,
Speaker 2: you should do it. But if it's not a good return,
Speaker 2: and this is now I'm rehashing Dame to Miami stuff
Speaker 2: from a few years ago, it is you're under no
Speaker 2: obligation to that. Like you don't think that is what
Speaker 2: you need to do, Like, then don't do it right,
Speaker 2: Take the best value for you. John Horst works for
Speaker 2: the Milwaukee Bucks ownership, and his responsibility is to them
Speaker 2: and the team and the fans in Milwaukee. It is
Speaker 2: not too just to Giannis. Because here's the thing, this,
Speaker 2: this is alright like wright in, one of the questions
Speaker 2: that keeps coming up at the end of all these
Speaker 2: is are they even gonna trade him? And my thing
Speaker 2: is it's like, well, I hope so, because they are
Speaker 2: the couple we've all been friends with where it's like, guys,
Speaker 2: just break up already, like we love to be you
Speaker 2: and we know you're always gonna like somehow you'll have
Speaker 2: fondness for each other, but just break up already, Like
Speaker 2: just go your separate ways, like everybody. Everybody at the
Speaker 2: end of the day will be happier. And you know what,
Speaker 2: ten years from now, I'll come back together and you
Speaker 2: will throw a big party and it'll be great to
Speaker 2: heavy in the same room. Like it's Janis's accomplishments aren't
Speaker 2: gonna be tarnished unless this gets ugly and it starts
Speaker 2: turning into don't trade me to Portland cuz I'm not
Speaker 2: resigning there, and it starts being I'm angling towards these
Speaker 2: one or two teams and I'm gonna make it really
Speaker 2: crappy for you with your return and all that. And
Speaker 2: I'm with you too. Is there a world too? I've
Speaker 2: even thought like do the Bucks say you know what
Speaker 2: we want? We want players who are like let's say
Speaker 2: it was Jalen Brown said it's been in Jalen Brown
Speaker 2: off to a third team. We just watched them carrying
Speaker 2: not great Celtics roster to the two seed, Like why
Speaker 2: can't just let's just keep them. Let's just try to
Speaker 2: be competitive and be be okay, Like maybe we're not
Speaker 2: title level, but but we can be okay, we can
Speaker 2: get in the playoffs and let's go. And that's that's
Speaker 2: gonna be where it's really interesting. Last thing I wrote
Speaker 2: down eight teams, we now all came off the board.
Speaker 3: Oh really, there's teams.
Speaker 1: I don't know if you had thought about teams that
Speaker 1: I would want to pick, but I just know they're
Speaker 1: not gonna be as chaotic or aggressive as they should be.
Speaker 1: And so as a team, i'll spoil it like I
Speaker 1: don't have I'm not gonna pick the Golden State Warriors.
Speaker 1: I absolutely think that they should be a team that
Speaker 1: makes this list, but I just don't trust that they're good.
Speaker 3: They're all they're all smoke and yeah.
Speaker 2: I had a Orlando, but I think the Magic are
Speaker 2: gonna say bar big change was changing the coach. We're
Speaker 2: gonna give this group another year together. I don't think
Speaker 2: they're gonna do any kind of wild moves. There's gonna
Speaker 2: be stuff they do, like they're gonna Jonathan Isaac won't
Speaker 2: be on the Magic one way or another next season,
Speaker 2: like just too expensive for what he is. They're too
Speaker 2: expensive as a team. But yeah, I don't think they
Speaker 2: I think they could get really crazy. I just don't
Speaker 2: think they're going to.
Speaker 1: So did you have another one last team?
Speaker 2: Let me look, I just this one's kind of more
Speaker 2: just off the cuff. Houston feels like something could happen there.
Speaker 2: They just haven't come together, I think the way they
Speaker 2: wanted to. So so yeah, I'll throw out the rockets.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think what's interesting about them and they probably
Speaker 1: would have been my pick with the final pick, and
Speaker 1: I have one more team to go through.
Speaker 3: Is they just have to ask themselves.
Speaker 1: Were we one healthy Fred van Fleet and Steven Adams
Speaker 1: away from being a legitimate threat in the West. No, personally,
Speaker 1: the answer is no, yeah, and so they should be then,
Speaker 1: to me aggressive and you need to figure out what's
Speaker 1: the plan with Reed Shepherd. I tend to be an
Speaker 1: optimist with him, and I get made fun of all
Speaker 1: the time and mentions just for my attachment to him.
Speaker 1: I just still think he might be the answer and
Speaker 1: that he deserves more runway than he's gotten.
Speaker 3: And I know the playoffs are brutal at points for him, but.
Speaker 1: If you're not going to give him the runway, then
Speaker 1: anything should be on the table, including like our attaching
Speaker 1: picks or other salaries to him and seeing who you
Speaker 1: can get.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: I don't know necessarily what's the right player for them,
Speaker 1: But when you hear names like well, what does it
Speaker 1: cost to get I don't know whether it's Kyrie or
Speaker 1: what does it cost to get a Jamal Murray? I
Speaker 1: know those contracts are huge, but like those are probably
Speaker 1: the types of players that they need to get over
Speaker 1: that hut. Like if do Van Mitchell becomes available in Cleveland,
Speaker 1: like that's a name they should probably be looking at.
Speaker 2: Donan Mitchell would too. I think that'd be like Miami's
Speaker 2: kind of ultimate backup plan if he's available, like, go
Speaker 2: get him. So yeah, I think that's that's a good one.
Speaker 2: And then yeah, so yeah, Houston something. It feels like
Speaker 2: they're gonna do something to shake things up at least
Speaker 2: some some level.
Speaker 1: I really want to be bold enough to pick the
Speaker 1: Toronto Raptors here or even the Timberwolves. They just don't
Speaker 1: have enough stuff. Yeah, so I'm gonna go with Cleveland.
Speaker 1: I don't I'll be fairly surprised if Donovan Mitchell gets traded.
Speaker 1: I think you could talk me into literally anyone else
Speaker 1: getting moved or any other.
Speaker 3: Outcome on their offseason.
Speaker 1: The James Harden player option the next deal, How do
Speaker 1: they feel about Evan Mobley internally is dual big, So
Speaker 1: are they gonna run with that moving forward? And if not,
Speaker 1: do you look at moving Jared Allen because in theory
Speaker 1: that's still pretty nuclear, but it's less nuclear than moving
Speaker 1: in Evan Mobley or Donovan Mitchell. You need to We've
Speaker 1: been talking about this for how many years now of
Speaker 1: it is a little bit reductive, but you need to
Speaker 1: find the wing of the future or the fifth member
Speaker 1: of your current core four like Hard and Mitchell, Alan Moby.
Speaker 3: Okay, great baseline.
Speaker 1: Are you actually able to make a move that matters
Speaker 1: without moving one of those guys? And then the other
Speaker 1: thing too, is it's just kind of similar with Oka.
Speaker 1: See there's another team that projects to be in the
Speaker 1: second apron If they're gonna run everybody back, I don't know,
Speaker 1: Like Dan Gilbert has proven that he'll pay it they
Speaker 1: just did or about to.
Speaker 3: Is he gonna do it again?
Speaker 1: And if so, why if you're not changing, like you
Speaker 1: better change the roster at least if you're gonna go
Speaker 1: into the second aprin again, I would think some kind
Speaker 1: of fat I think there's just a lower chance they
Speaker 1: do anything seismic, but they kind of have the potential
Speaker 1: to like get pretty nuclear this summer too.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, and here's the key. They go second apron again.
Speaker 2: Now you're running into frozen picks and all the other stuff. Right,
Speaker 2: It's I like to say the second apron is like
Speaker 2: going to Las Vegas. It's when you go, it's expensive.
Speaker 2: We probably gonna have some fun, you're gonna win a little,
Speaker 2: it's gonna be great. Then you stay in the second
Speaker 2: apron too long, like staying in Vegas too long. Now
Speaker 2: it's really expensive. Now it's starting to get really painful,
Speaker 2: and you're probably gonna have a lot of like lingering
Speaker 2: things that you don't want to deal with when you
Speaker 2: get home. So so yeah, it's you stop by for
Speaker 2: a little bit, which they did, but now you've gotta
Speaker 2: be really careful that you don't don't overstay.
Speaker 3: You're welcome.
Speaker 1: We have you for about ten more minutes. Right, So
Speaker 1: am I able to ask you one or two like
Speaker 1: macro questions here? I'm very curious. I've been asking myself
Speaker 1: this question when Grant and I just talked, what do
Speaker 1: you think the trade value of first round picks are
Speaker 1: gonna be within lottery reform? And to what extent. Do
Speaker 1: you think front offices those people are still trying to
Speaker 1: figure that out and don't have their heads wrapped around it.
Speaker 2: And answer the second part first, because it's gonna help
Speaker 2: me answer the first part of your question. They don't know,
Speaker 2: and neither do I. Like it's I talk to a
Speaker 2: team this today actually this morning, where they were like,
Speaker 2: my our feeling is an organization now on first round
Speaker 2: picks is if you could go get the guy, go
Speaker 2: get them, because having all your picks is it's okay.
Speaker 2: But there's no you can't can't be bad for multiple
Speaker 2: years in a row because there's all these kind of
Speaker 2: bob what restrictions I guess for lack of a return,
Speaker 2: but there's all these failsafs to make sure you can't
Speaker 2: be in the top three so many years in a
Speaker 2: row and all those things. So I talked to a
Speaker 2: team that was like, picks are whatever. I talked to
Speaker 2: another team that's like, I don't want all my picks
Speaker 2: in the trade. It used to be, yeah, I'll bet
Speaker 2: against you being really good six seven years from now,
Speaker 2: so six seven there, I did a cheap joke. But
Speaker 2: it is like, I'm gonna been against you because so yeah,
Speaker 2: I want three first or four first and swaps in between.
Speaker 2: Now they're like, I don't know what I want all
Speaker 2: the picks from one team because if it does go
Speaker 2: sideways on you, I can't maximize my value. I'd rather
Speaker 2: have two picks from this team and a couple picks
Speaker 2: here and all that. So that that was an interesting take,
Speaker 2: And then like there is with other third teams. Thought
Speaker 2: was like, still, they're like the best unknown value currency
Speaker 2: we have in the NBA is first round pick could
Speaker 2: be anything, right, it could be the number one pick,
Speaker 2: it could be the thirtieth pick. It's a complete mystery box.
Speaker 2: And the reality is NBA gms, even when they're great,
Speaker 2: they are they're healthy egos. So it is I'm going
Speaker 2: to trust we will do it better than you, and
Speaker 2: we know better than their partner they're trading with, and
Speaker 2: it is you will make stupid mistakes that will make
Speaker 2: your picks valuable if I'm trading you with players. So
Speaker 2: I believe, just like I believed when the new CBA
Speaker 2: came in, it takes two full transaction cycles for us
Speaker 2: to really have a handle on how things are working.
Speaker 2: So when I say a transaction cycle, that is an
Speaker 2: off season followed by a trade deadline. So I think
Speaker 2: it's gonna take us a couple of years for everybody
Speaker 2: to feel like we kind of got this, which then
Speaker 2: will be just in time for them to be like,
Speaker 2: out this system.
Speaker 3: To change it. We're gonna change it again. Yeah, for
Speaker 3: the credit system, do you?
Speaker 1: And I guess I was worried about this when the
Speaker 1: aprons were first implemented, and I don't know that we
Speaker 1: saw it to a massive degree. But the uncertainty is
Speaker 1: teams are trying to figure out and navigate, well, what
Speaker 1: are about your first round picks?
Speaker 3: Now?
Speaker 1: Could it create relative quiet when it comes to these
Speaker 1: bigger trades and then or does the next market inefficiency
Speaker 1: become the willingness to trade your first round picks where
Speaker 1: these teams that you might not have thought had to
Speaker 1: access or the assets to go out and get these
Speaker 1: guys are one of the few teams who are actively
Speaker 1: willing to trade multiple first round picks right now. So
Speaker 1: it brings them within closer proximity to making those giant splashes.
Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure. In there this kind of goes back
Speaker 2: to and I think it's great that every front office
Speaker 2: approaches this stuff differently. Where it is. There is a
Speaker 2: like some who their belief is like, no, I want
Speaker 2: the certainty, give me the player, right, goes kind of
Speaker 2: back to your Jaylen Williams question, Right, Like, I know
Speaker 2: jaaln Williams is really good, so I want him over
Speaker 2: the uncertainty of what a draft pick might be like
Speaker 2: you know, yeah, go that way and there's it's And
Speaker 2: then there are ones who are like, Nope, like it,
Speaker 2: Like I believe I'll find wherever I pick in the draft,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna land somebody who's awesome and maybe underdrafted. And
Speaker 2: you know, now, now we're sitting on a superstar plus
Speaker 2: because there's no better value in the league than an
Speaker 2: all star level guy on a rookie scale deal. So
Speaker 2: I I think there is. I think I think the
Speaker 2: initial reaction will be a little bit of nope, got
Speaker 2: to keep them right. I can't can't move fix like,
Speaker 2: because that's just our natural reaction. Anything that's new is
Speaker 2: like you pull everything closer and keep it tighter too,
Speaker 2: you just because you don't know what is happening here
Speaker 2: in this new new world with that. So so we'll see.
Speaker 2: But yeah, I'm I'm super excited really starting now, right,
Speaker 2: we're in draft Like we're still a week and a
Speaker 2: half out or whatever it is now, but like we're
Speaker 2: in draft window now, and like we're gonna start seeing
Speaker 2: like who is valuing some of these things.
Speaker 1: The other thing I wanted to ask you, we now
Speaker 1: just have a bunch of transaction cycles with the aprons,
Speaker 1: and we know what the aversion is gonna be.
Speaker 3: The second apron. You now have the lottery uh reformation
Speaker 3: curve ball.
Speaker 1: We know what we know too about what you need
Speaker 1: to make it through an entire season, which there are
Speaker 1: many things to get into, but I think one of
Speaker 1: the biggest things is it takes depth. Now, like the
Speaker 1: top heavy teams and for the most part are just
Speaker 1: not going to survive.
Speaker 2: Yep.
Speaker 1: Knowing all of that, do you think that there's been
Speaker 1: a there will be because we've yet to see it,
Speaker 1: a shift in team building philosophies of I've I've speculated
Speaker 1: a lot. I've heard others speculated a lot of well,
Speaker 1: you can't do the three mac model anymore. And there's
Speaker 1: some that think, well, can you even really do the
Speaker 1: two veteran max Let's say the fun maxes are a
Speaker 1: little different. I've been waiting for a negotiation or a
Speaker 1: player to be the inflection point for that. I thought
Speaker 1: it might be Daron Fox or Jaron Jackson Junior last summer.
Speaker 3: And it wasn't.
Speaker 1: Two those guys just basically got the deals that they
Speaker 1: were able to get in the renegotiating extent with Jaron
Speaker 1: Jackson Jr. Do you think that type of correction is
Speaker 1: coming or are we now deep enough in to say no,
Speaker 1: like teams aren't gonna fret too much about having the
Speaker 1: two veteran MAX type guys.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think it's when it comes down to telling
Speaker 2: a player, I'm not going to give you the max.
Speaker 2: There is an element of we were wrong in what
Speaker 2: you are as a player and what you would grow
Speaker 2: into being. That is very hard for teams to admit to,
Speaker 2: for lack of a better term. So I think that
Speaker 2: part probably won't change very much. I think there is
Speaker 2: still an idea of he can't pay everybody, but not
Speaker 2: everybody's worth the MAX. But I still think we're seeing
Speaker 2: teams operate with no. If we have the guy and
Speaker 2: we feel he's a MAX guy, pay him, We're gonna
Speaker 2: pay him. So I think that's there. I think the
Speaker 2: other part of what we're gonna see. Is you you
Speaker 2: touched on it is? I've been cammering at this idea
Speaker 2: of you need one hundred games of depth if you're
Speaker 2: gonna win an NBA title or contend for one. You
Speaker 2: gotta get through the regular season. We know the days
Speaker 2: of multiple guys playing eighty plus games, they're just gone.
Speaker 2: They're just not gonna and they're never gonna come back.
Speaker 2: Like it's we everybody knows the season is too long
Speaker 2: and too many games, but nobody, players and owners, nobody
Speaker 2: wants to give up the money that would come from
Speaker 2: taking away games. So everybody's Josh Hart said it better
Speaker 2: than anybody's, like, I don't want to take any less money.
Speaker 2: So that means people got to sit out sometimes. So
Speaker 2: that's what it is, right, It's kind of there. So
Speaker 2: I think it's it's on both sides, right, it's owners
Speaker 2: and players there. So I think you're gonna see it
Speaker 2: be you gotta get through. And then of course you
Speaker 2: have natural injuries, which I think is I think the
Speaker 2: silly thing about with a lot of this has gotten
Speaker 2: downplayed because you know how it is, anytime a guy
Speaker 2: misses a game, it's a load manager. It's like the
Speaker 2: dude's ankle was like, you know, like parallel to the
Speaker 2: floor like last night, like he rolled his ankle like
Speaker 2: he's legit hurt. Not everything is your load management when
Speaker 2: a player misses a game, So you.
Speaker 1: Got tough it out on it the whole, the whole reaction.
Speaker 1: Like Rick Flair I think encapsulated the best when he
Speaker 1: was complaining about Luca not being tough enough to play
Speaker 1: when he was dealing with the was that the cash
Speaker 1: strain that kept him out. It's like, these guys want
Speaker 1: to play back, Like I don't think I've you've met
Speaker 1: a few players maybe who didn't love what they do.
Speaker 1: When Andrew bidam at the question whether DeAndre Ayton likes basketball,
Speaker 1: Sure these guys aren't making the decision to actively not play.
Speaker 1: I find that entire type of analysis. So it's it's reductive.
Speaker 1: It's just like factually inaccurate.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's not right, and it's it's insulting, like it's
Speaker 2: really just not good. Like there's way more guys. Like
Speaker 2: the famous story with the Celtics is like when they
Speaker 2: tell Jason Tatum, you're taking a load management day, He's like, no,
Speaker 2: I'm not. I'm playing Like I want to play. And
Speaker 2: it's literally to the point where it's like we do
Speaker 2: not put a uniform anywhere near his locker room stall, Like,
Speaker 2: don't take his sneakers out of the traveling case, Like.
Speaker 3: Like his code to get in the building doesn't even work.
Speaker 2: Yeah, probably where it'll eventually get to. So it's yeah,
Speaker 2: I mean the guys want to play there. Yeah, there's
Speaker 2: a handful of guys like you said that you could
Speaker 2: question it about. But with that so, but that's so
Speaker 2: you need the depth, right, you need all the depth.
Speaker 2: I think what you're going to see is teams are
Speaker 2: going to be more cutthroat on the idea of even
Speaker 2: non max guys. There's always been the sense of well,
Speaker 2: he's our guy, we know how he fits, just pay him.
Speaker 2: I think those are gonna be the ones where it
Speaker 2: is we're not going to do that. Now. On the
Speaker 2: flip side, there's gonna be valuation says this is a
Speaker 2: fifteen million dollar player at twenty million, he's not a
Speaker 2: bad contract and untradable, so let's just pay him twenty
Speaker 2: because then that gives us tradable salary for whatever the
Speaker 2: next trade is down the line. You're seeing some of
Speaker 2: that already happen as well.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's something you touch on.
Speaker 1: There is why I'm kind of fascinating to see what
Speaker 1: does Jalen Duran get a restricted freency or what does
Speaker 1: an Amens Thompson get as part of extend because he's
Speaker 1: the only when you're looking at the rookie extension eligible
Speaker 1: players this year. Okay, Wemby five year escalator max done,
Speaker 1: literally everyone else after him, Brandon Miller, Like they're all
Speaker 1: question marks.
Speaker 3: It's what do you pay these guys? Is there anything?
Speaker 1: Is there anything else that you're like you personally are
Speaker 1: just monitoring macro micro just heading in the offseason, trying
Speaker 1: to see like what direction the league is headed in.
Speaker 2: We know them the big stuff because I think teams
Speaker 2: now have a pretty good sense of where they're at
Speaker 2: with the aprons. And it's the other thing is too
Speaker 2: there's no overarching this is what your apron strategy needs
Speaker 2: to be because for some teams it is who cares
Speaker 2: about the second apron. We're never going into the tax,
Speaker 2: so it doesn't matter like the Indiana Pacers until they
Speaker 2: do it again. We just have to assume the tax
Speaker 2: is their de facto hardcap. The Pelicans have never paid
Speaker 2: the tax. Until they do, I'm gonna assume the tax
Speaker 2: is their de facto hardcap. So but the teams that
Speaker 2: are working, like I think they have good plans for like, yeah,
Speaker 2: we can go into the second apron for a year,
Speaker 2: maybe two if we're really titled contenders, but after that
Speaker 2: it's time to reset and we got to relook at things.
Speaker 2: So it's really around the draft picks, like what's the
Speaker 2: value of the draft picks going to be? Where's it
Speaker 2: going to go? I think the draft process is a
Speaker 2: whole hole, is super super interesting. Some of it's an
Speaker 2: NBA thing, some of it's a college thing. We saw
Speaker 2: a lot of guys withdraw from the draft this year.
Speaker 2: This draft is still really really good, and it's gonna
Speaker 2: be really good players through probably the first five to
Speaker 2: ten picks in the second round. But then the depth
Speaker 2: of the draft when you get into the middle latter
Speaker 2: part of the second round took a huge hit because
Speaker 2: a lot of guys were like borderline first round pick. Well,
Speaker 2: all right, even if I squeak into the last pick
Speaker 2: of the first round, that's like three million bucks. I
Speaker 2: made five million next year staying in college, like I'll
Speaker 2: just come back and I'll play better, and then I'll
Speaker 2: be be the fifteenth pick and I'll get seven million,
Speaker 2: and you know, now, look how much better off I am.
Speaker 2: So that whole process is gonna be fascinating because eventually
Speaker 2: those guys run out of eligibility at some point, I mean,
Speaker 2: unless these kids keep suing everybody, and I'm I'm gonna
Speaker 2: go back to and figure out how I can get
Speaker 2: my eligibility back and try to play I don't know,
Speaker 2: Division three or something. But like it's like, hey, it
Speaker 2: did that part really does fascinate me. I am really
Speaker 2: excited to see where, you know, kind of how does
Speaker 2: all of that come together? But that's more of a
Speaker 2: now and like expanding out over the next few transaction cycles.
Speaker 2: What does that look like? And then last thing I'll
Speaker 2: say is the league super wide open? So why not? Right?
Speaker 2: Why not go for it? I think there are a
Speaker 2: bunch of teams that are kind of like I thun
Speaker 2: they're almost got beat in the finals, did get beat
Speaker 2: this year? Spurs probably not gonna win the title? Like
Speaker 2: all right, so they're good, Like, but why not us?
Speaker 2: Why can't we beat them too? Yeah? That's what's best
Speaker 2: for the league. I think it's best for the league
Speaker 2: when we go and with the lottery reform, I am
Speaker 2: I think they went too far. I don't think it
Speaker 2: was the problem they thought it was, But I think
Speaker 2: it's super interesting to what does it look like over
Speaker 2: the next few years where teams have no incentive to
Speaker 2: be awful? Right? You you really you can't be right.
Speaker 2: You're like, like, it's gonna be really fun in March
Speaker 2: in the beginning Party eight for watching a team be like,
Speaker 2: we're just trying to get to four. Man, Like, we
Speaker 2: gotta win these teams. We don't want to be three.
Speaker 2: We want to get to four. So so we have
Speaker 2: the extra ping pong ball because we've never seen that. Right,
Speaker 2: it's been by the time your post trade deadline, it's like,
Speaker 2: all right, the Magic are playing the Wizards tonight because
Speaker 2: it's the top nine guys in the Wizards rotation aren't playing.
Speaker 2: We all understand why, but yeah, it's gonna be a
Speaker 2: lot of fun.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 1: The one on intended consequence of the lottery format, as
Speaker 1: I've wondered, because you they're worried about you can't have
Speaker 1: a top five pick. What is it in three consecutive years, right,
Speaker 1: and you can't win the first overall pick twice yea
Speaker 1: is next year is considered a down draft, right? Could
Speaker 1: there be teams that prefer to be in the bottom
Speaker 1: three so they lower their chance of getting number one
Speaker 1: that year because they're planning on being bad the following year.
Speaker 1: So that's that's one of the nerdy things I'm tracking.
Speaker 1: But Keith, this was fantastic. Thank you so much for
Speaker 1: coming on. Can you just tell everyone where they could
Speaker 1: find you and all the great stuff that you do?
Speaker 2: Yeah, and find out my written market spot track dot com.
Speaker 2: I'm deep into off season preview stuff right now. I
Speaker 2: think we've got eighteen team off season previews posts and
Speaker 2: the rest of them will be coming fast and furious
Speaker 2: here over the next couple of weeks. We are not
Speaker 2: trying to hit by the start of the NBA Draft.
Speaker 2: I'm not a crazy person. We try to hit by
Speaker 2: the start of the actual off season. My rookie scale
Speaker 2: extension projection piece post and that's always a popular one
Speaker 2: every year. And then I'm gonna have free agent previews coming.
Speaker 2: We do. We still do them by the traditional positions
Speaker 2: because most people still think point guard, shooting guard, small forward,
Speaker 2: Power Forward Center. So we're gonna out preview those with
Speaker 2: rankings and an overall top fifty ranking and then this
Speaker 2: stuff happens. Now I'll be breaking it down on the
Speaker 2: site and on our show, NBA Front Office Show with
Speaker 2: Trevor Lane and I Every Friday is a live show,
Speaker 2: and then we do live shows whenever a massive transaction. Man,
Speaker 2: So whenever Giannis does get traded as quickly as we
Speaker 2: can get in front of my.
Speaker 1: Crope, what are you gonna do if he doesn't get traded?
Speaker 3: This is like this all anti climact that we do
Speaker 3: it for the next subcard.
Speaker 2: Somebody.
Speaker 1: Thank you, Keith, thank you so much once again, and
Speaker 1: rest the shortage.
Speaker 3: You know by now I'll be pestering you again in
Speaker 3: the future.
Speaker 2: I appreciate it. Thanks so much for having me.