Speaker 1: Alright, welcome to wa Did You Talk Today?
Speaker 2: The gold standard of the sports betting shows, where we
talk the talk and walk the walk.
Speaker 1: It's Thursday. We got a loaded show lined up.
Speaker 2: We got football, we got hoops, we got market insights,
joined by Dan, who's back after his Wednesday hiatus. Dan's
gonna walk us through who we got in today's lineup? Dan,
who are we talking to today?
Speaker 3: Yes, Andy, I missed you yesterday. Buddy, good to see
you here. Yes, I know, I know the bromance is
real here, but yeah, man, awesome Thursday show that we
got for you. Obviously, Thursday night football tonight, big time matchup,
major playoff implications in this Rams and Seahawks game. So
Steve Merril's gonna give us a full breakdown of the game.
Andy and I have some props for you. Of course,
Andy's going all around the world before we're done. So
when there's little lulls and you're saying, where the hell
are our free picks? Trust me, you're getting an insane
amount of free picks throughout the show.
Speaker 4: Here. We always lead the show off.
Speaker 3: Outside of Tuesday and Wednesdays with Yanni the Greek. He's
gonna break down what we're seeing some steam coming up
in college football bowl games, the college football playoffs, and
which is one guest. Today, we're gonna get a nice
deep dive with Steve Merrill, two NBA free plays, Magic Nuggets,
Warrior Sons, all that and more Andy, all that in
a bag of tricks, as they once said, coming on
the Thursday edition, here a wait to talk today, Buddy,
I'm pumped.
Speaker 1: I'm glad you said tricks.
Speaker 2: There's there's yes, it was another word that rhymes with
tricks that I was like, whoa, Dan.
Speaker 3: You're like, please know this is the intro. Dan, don't
get us canceled in the intro. Now, we at least
save the cancelable stuff till the back end of the show.
Speaker 2: As you well know, absolutely absolutely, let's bring in Yanni
and yeah, okay, give.
Speaker 4: You's about to teach you how to fish. Get your notepad.
Yanni's about to teach you how to fish. Come on, uh, Yanny.
Speaker 2: Some really crazy matchups here to start bull season. Last night,
the Raging Cajuns were anything but rage and they were
they were the Sleeping Caguns. I know that the over
a lot of people up before that we had the
Kim Cook. You know, kind of just last second, Oh,
I'm not gonna play. What do we make a Bull
season so far? I know it's only a couple of games,
but are the markets scared at all? As their volatility
is their movement?
Speaker 1: What are we doing?
Speaker 5: No, you haven't seen heavy volume yet. That's gonna start
to pick up Friday. That's when you get Alabama playing,
you start talking playoffs, people start to get more into
that holiday where now just a week away. I think
you're really gonna start feeling it this weekend. Instead, it
kind of felt like Mac games. That's how these Bowl
games felt like those Tuesday Mac games during the regular season.
You know, personally, I love Bullseason. I think there's a
ton of value. I'd set it from Thanksgiving, since Thanksgiving
coming into Thanksgiving week that there is so much opportunity,
and since we sat down and put it all together
with Johnny, we're gonna do a lot of damage. And
since Thanksgiving, I actually just check, I'm up seventy five
units bro over ten percent, ROI two hundred plus bets
close to sixty percent. And that's the opportunity that we're
going to have over the next six weeks. As well,
like my family knows until the end of January, I'm
just working like this is that time of year where
there's just so much value on the board if you're
patient and you're not afraid to fire. Like this morning,
I had no idea I was going to get involved
in this Bowl game and the Thursday night game. But
next thing you know, I got a side in total
on the Bowl game. I'm already involved on the Thursday
Night NFL game because again it's that time of the
year where even the betting syndicates are getting involved in
these marquee matchups because there's so much public money outweighing
sharp money that the books are forced to adjust for
this risk and towards that narrative, which we know is
always you know, more or less an overreaction. So not
sure what you want to go over first, because I
got a lot of stuff for you guys, whatever you
want to talk about. We're loaded for bear today.
Speaker 2: All right, Well, football is king, So let's start with
the big time game, the Thursday Night NFL. What are
we seeing there, and then let's segue into Bowl season.
Speaker 5: Well, you're looking at a coin flip type of game,
and that's exactly what this line's telling you. We're gonna
let the market decide and as long as we don't
get middled we should be able to sweep up the veig.
That's the books approach to this game. They had Seattle
was a one point favorite in the look ahead. Rams
went through about a one point favorite early in the week.
Now Seattle's back to a one point favorite. The flip
of the favorite has nothing to do with wiseguy money
early in the week. It has all to do with
the confirmation or unconfirmed injuries. Key for the Rams obviously
the Bonte Adams's touchdown leader in twenty twenty five, not
one hundred percent for sure hamstring issues hasn't been ruled out.
It will be a game time decision based on the
betting line. I don't think he's gonna play Seattle, though
their left guard will be out also, so I think
there was a little reaction to that midweek with the
talk of Adams not being ruled out yet. So I
think that's why you saw it swayed towards the Rams
and now it's swaying back the other way. But it's
a coin flip type of game. Even power rating wise,
you have the number one and number two teams in
the NFL playing each other. And let me break this
down for you.
Speaker 4: You have the.
Speaker 5: Rams top five offense, top five defense, with the sixth
toughest schedule in the NFL. That's very impressive. That's why
they are undoubtedly the number one power rated team and
on a neutral field, no one should be favored over
the La Rams. Now they're playing Seattle, which is the
number two power rated team as far as my power
rating goes, who also has a top five offense, top
five defense. Difference is strength of schedule. They have the
twenty second most difficult strength of schedule, so only ten
teams had an easier go of bit than Seattle has.
That's where you're looking at the difference. In very similar statistics. Again,
we have the Rams third on offense, fifth on offense
for Seattle. We have the Seattle defense about third and
the Rams defense about fifth. So there are mirrors of
each other except for strength of schedule. So let's give
the Rams the edge for strength of schedule. But uh oh,
they're playing this one in Seattle. Home field advantage for
Seattle about one point eight the two point one depend
on who you talk to. We'll just make it two points.
So I think that's why you're looking at the line
where it is. Power rating wise, neutral field rams should
be about a one one and a half point favorite.
We add in the home field advantage for Seattle, and
that's why you're looking at this betting line more or
less a coin flip. I don't think that's gonna change
because the next key number is three. It will not
reach their in either direction. The totals dropped significantly. It's
starting to creep back up because the recreational betters are
starting to get involved. But the wise guys steam the
under immediately. They steam the under as soon as the
look ahead went up at forty seven and a half,
they steamed the under forty six and a half. When
it got adjusted, they hit the under forty six on Monday,
they hit the under forty four. On Tuesday, they got
it down to forty two and a half yesterday. This morning,
we're starting to see forty three. As recreational betters, they're
not as comfortable betting unders, especially in primetime games, so
that'll start to balance that out again. This is the
kind of game where you're booking, you're in a good position,
you're not gonna get middled maybe on the total, not
on the side, and you're getting good two way action
from the public looking at the back end right now.
That's exactly what I'm seeing my boys book right now.
It's almost he's got probably like booked about one hundred
and twenty something bets on it already and he barely
has a risk of a nickel on one side. So
balanced action right down the middle, which for a book
you can't get better than that.
Speaker 2: I'm planning my flag on this hill that the Seattle
Seahawks are the frauds of the NFC.
Speaker 1: I don't buy this team.
Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, listen to their last and I get it.
You have to be you have to beat who's in
front of you. They can't do anything.
Speaker 1: About their schedule.
Speaker 2: But they just beat Philip Rivers before that, Kirk Cousins,
before that Brasmer, and before that cam Ward in the
game before that they lost to the Rams. I'm just
these all were top five offense, were top five defense. Again,
not their fault, but I just think these power ratings
are off with Seattle.
Speaker 1: I don't think they're good.
Speaker 2: And Sam Darnold is the ultimate uh oh, it's a
big game and he threw four interceptions. And I say
that because that's what he did against this Rams team
last time they played. Did he threw four interceptions? This
is this is this is an eleven and three team.
I would be terrified to put my money on. So
there's gonna be a team that falls apart.
Speaker 1: That people don't expect.
Speaker 2: And I don't know what people's expectations are of Seattle,
but for me, I'm completely out.
Speaker 5: Yeah, what's crazy is they are like similar except for that,
Like is we all think the Rams really are legit,
but is Seattle like even like you said, with Donald
he's top five in passing success rate, Like he's actually
ranked top five with a fifty one point seven. Matthew
Stafford's number one at fifty five point four. But in
between them is like Mac joh Drake May, Daniel Jones.
So he's like in the pack with the top five
guys of this season. But you're saying that's strength of
schedule related more than anything else, and that's going to
play out. That's the beauty that'll play out as the
season progresses and they make the playoffs and the level
of competition starts stepping off. We're gonna find out for sure.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I just I watched them struggle mightily against
Philip Rivers last week, and.
Speaker 1: Maybe I just can't get that one image out of mind.
Speaker 5: Here's one and a halbs now. I think the Rams
at plus seven and a half makes a great teaser
with a total that's down at forty two and a
half forty three, I think that is a plus e
b bet if you can find someone that tied into
and right now you have like the Chargers or an
option if that doesn't move off otherwise that's the problem.
Like I'm looking for someone to tie that into, and
I have to ume Detroit goes to seven and a
half or eight to make this play, or take the
Chargers and hope they Dallas doesn't go to like three,
which I don't think that's gonna happen. So I think
that may be the move, tying them in with the Chargers.
We'll see, we'll see.
Speaker 2: Uh yeah, Rob asks if there's wind in Seattle tonight.
Speaker 1: Weather is always difficult to pray settle up there up there,
it's hourly.
Speaker 2: I checked it this morning, rain throughout the day, but
will be stopping before the game like it's supposed to
stop in the mid afternoon, late afternoon temperatures will be fine,
so and wind good luck, good luck guessing the wind
up in.
Speaker 4: That part of the part of yeah, yeah, especially when
it's gusts.
Speaker 3: But it's a good point there by the comment or two,
because wind is one of the factors that actually matters.
Like people blow up, rain and snow and all of
these weather factors way too much. The one that matters
is whin And like Andy said, even when you're trying
to handicap how wind affects a stadium, sometimes there will
be whirling in the south end. Does that affect what
happens on the north end of the field. You know,
it's a very tough thing to handicap, but wind is
the number one thing that's affecting, especially when you're talking
about totals how to bet them.
Speaker 2: In my opinion, I think wind is overrated. I think
I think people will put way too much into wind.
I don't pay attention until it's over twenty It needs
to be over twenty mile an hours sustained. They always
do this thing where they say it's windy, and what
do they do.
Speaker 1: They show the flag on top of.
Speaker 2: The stadium, that's fair, and they're like, look how windy
it is, and then they cut down to the players
who are just throwing. Do you know why because the
stadiums are made of walls, and there's walls.
Speaker 1: Not like the flag way up there.
Speaker 2: You give me gusts over thirty five and sustained over
twenty I'm interested. And by the way, I also didn't
do you guys know this. The quarterbacks are allowed to
throw spirals that cuts through said wind to the widers.
I think we put too much. That's an eighty leane
take for another day. All right, Johny, let's talk. Let's
talk about the Bowl game's power ranking steam.
Speaker 1: What do you got for the rest of the Bulls?
Speaker 5: Well, well, the game today. These are What's funny is
I have Missouri. My guy does every team, and he's
got Missouri State in Arkansas State one number off each other.
He's got Missouri State as the ninety eighth power rated
team and he's got Arkansas State as the ninety seventh
power rated team. And it kind of makes sense. One
has like one hundred and tenth toughest schedule, the other
one has the one hundred and fifteenth toughest schedule. And
even offensively and defensively, one's like one hundred and five,
the others one hundred and ten. Ones one hundred and five,
the others one hundred and ten on offensive defense. So
that's why it's funny you're seeing a coin flip type
of game here. But like I said, it all picks
up tomorrow with Oklahoma and Alabama. Oklahoma is now the favorite.
Talked about them early as that was one of the
first steam moves we soul when the bowl and playoff
lines went off immediately in the steam sheet. For those
that have it, they should have already seen Oklahoma plus
two Oklahoma plus one and a half. They came back
and hit it twice. That's why Oklahoma is now the favorite.
Power rating wise, I have them one above the other
I have I mean ranking wise, they have one above
the other. Power rating wise, that's not the case. I
have Alabama as the eighth best team. I have Oklahoma
as the sixteenth best team. So my power ratings do
not reflect what the rankings reflect, but the markets moving
in the direction of the rankings, not of my power ratings.
I would have preferred to see Alabama move up to
a one and a half two two and a half
three point favorite that didn't happen, which makes it tough
for me. This morning, we have saw steam come in
on the over at forty and forty and a half.
The initial move opened at forty and a half, you
saw down to like forty wasn't really getting any kind
of action. That all changed this morning. Like I said,
you're gonna start seeing a lot of the bulb bets
coming in tonight through tomorrow. For the next seven ten days,
limits start to increase. The paper heads that I deal
with and the offscreen books all now up the limits
all have signs and totals, even some props. So you're
gonna start to see these groups firing, pay attention to
line moves. Over the next twenty four to forty eight hours,
you'll see a lot of the legit stuff get down.
Like I said this morning with the Alabama and Oklahoma total,
it's kind of.
Speaker 2: A ways out on some of these bulls are the
sharps and the syndicate. It's their timeframe on waiting for
some of these like do they have like a timeline
where we go. We got to pay attention to opt
outs and who's going to play and who's not going
to play or is it different from game by game
it changes.
Speaker 5: I've already played so many bets, but I don't release
two subscribers and piggyback more for myself until I feel
confident that it's a legit move and I have an
opinion on that side. That's kind of the wait and see,
which is why I've had to like I've already handicapped
every single bowl game. I have what my power ratings
shows the line should be. I have everything ready to go,
so as the information comes, I could fire or pass.
Kind of like what happened this morning with tonight's bowl game.
I was like, I had an opinion on the side
and the total, but no confirmation that changed this morning.
I'm ready to fire. So that's kind of how I
play it. But these guys already got down. Like anyone
that's got the THEEAM sheet, I think there's fifteen sixteen
plus college football, and I just put the sides in there.
The totals I don't put till game day because there's
so much manipulation. But what happens andy is then you'll
see them come in on the other side today, perfect example,
Missouri State plus two and a half, they flipped to
the favorite today. They came in with Arkansas State without
having access to good information and knowing whether it was
being dummied up to get more down. It's tough for
an average recreational better to decipher that movement. That's why
I urge them not to try to figure it out,
because the bold season line movements differ like we're playing
with a different playing field right now, and a lot
of stuff happens late that gets you guessing, like what's
the side today, Missouri State or Arkansas State? I can
tell you with certainty what side is the legit move
and that gets harder to do because these lines have
been up for so long. That's the problem.
Speaker 2: Let's move to college basketball, potentially NBA. We got a
huge slate in NBA, I would urge. I already saw
this floating around on social media about why are the
Knicks only like minus won seventy five money line against
the Pacers. The team that has won the NBA Cup
has come out flat as heck over the over.
Speaker 1: The next couple of weeks both times.
Speaker 2: So proceed with caution if you want to bet on
the New York Nicks. So that's the story with that,
But I'm going to you Steam Report. Let's start college basketball.
What do you see in today?
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'll just read off what I put in for
the Steam Report already early seven thirty one firm and
minus eight and a half seven twenty two, Eastern Illinois
plus seven seven forty seven, Tennessee Martin plus four and
a half seven forty six, Lindenwood minus eleven seven fifty
two Southern miss minus the twelve and a half in
the NBA total we got down on right away. Let
me share that because it turned premium. But if you
look at the betting line, it'll be hard to read
it because it looks like the under. The under got
dummy down last night and that was on Detroit Dallas.
This morning, we came in off screen and steamed the
shit out of the over in Detroit Dallas, not knowing
whether it's gonna cash or not. But I can tell
you that's exactly what happened, and that's why my guys
got down the over as their premium play in that matchup. Also,
Detroit got bet at minus five and a half and
minus six in that game. Oklahoma City gets bet every
single night. And then what happens is once it goes,
the overnight gets bet up and then they wait and
they bet it back down later after the public bets
Oklahoma City as well, because they're just like blindly betting them.
The public just looking for reason to bet Oklahoma City
and you know minus twelve, thirteen, fifteen, that's not going
to stop them. The Knicks, like you touched on, jumps
out Toronto. That's sharp and the public's opposite. I'm seeing
the public taken Milwaukee, but the sharp took Toronto. That's
in multiple counts. And the Lakers Lakers, Lakers Lakers. Not
sure if that's getting out ahead of the market because
they also played it with the Over, which seems correlated.
But yeah, they got down on the Lakers and Over
and finally something that actually right now they're gonna go
over in Golden State and Phoenix. They sprinkled over in
the overnight and they're following through this morning. I don't
really like it, but yeah, that's somebody NBA stuff already.
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's a lot going on.
Speaker 2: We've gone a long YADI, so we're gearing up for
football Friday tomorrow. But on this Thursday, Tillerroom, what you
have up.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I got the Bowl game signed in total both
four percent that's in there, the Xbox Bowl, I got
the Thursday Night Football package. Those prime time games have
been on fire, Saturday's Bowl game, Friday Bowl package. I'll
Sunday NFL going for my third straight five percent, big
move that's already in there. Yeah, just a lot over
there at wager Talk. So jump on board for long
term again. If you like money, you're already on board.
Between now and the Super Bowl, it's a great opportunity
to do some damage. And with the holidays up around
the corner, let's pill then pockets up. Head on over
to wagestalk dot com. I'll try to throw in some
free stuff for you too.
Speaker 4: You'd love to see it. Andy, Just a beautiful thing.
Speaker 3: I mean, twenty minutes of Yannie Gold. We did the
Thursday Night football game. He talked side in total, what
they bet, college football bowls, college football playoff action, college basketball,
and NBA team. If that doesn't earn us alike, and
if you haven't already subscribed at the top of the show,
all of that info, I mean, what the hell are
we doing, man, what the hell are we doing? I know, Andy,
so so I missed you yesterday, as you well know,
and also as you well know, even though we plagiarized
our Tuesday play for WTF and LFG, Luckily I didn't
mush Jim Root. He gave us South Carolina. They ended
up keeping the game close. They actually had a lead
at one point. They end up you know, getting pulled away,
but they were twelve and a half point underdogs.
Speaker 4: I think they only ended up losing by a handful
of points there.
Speaker 3: So that has made it Andy after starting zero to
two four straight on the WTF or LFG plays where
I give Andy one play and he says, in my tailing,
am I fading? Is this a WTF or is this
an LFG? Well, Andy, in honor of going four straight,
we finally have a graphic. Think about WTF or LFG.
Speaker 4: Are we going down in flames? Or are we cashing
some tickets?
Speaker 3: Comment below and in the live chat what we think
of our new graphic here. But Andy, what I have
for you today Thursday Night Football prop is what we're
going with here for the WTF or LFG, I'm actually
taking a look at one that just feels a little auspiciously.
Speaker 4: Low, and that is sious.
Speaker 3: I thought you would like that, And that is Sam
Darnald's rushing yard total.
Speaker 4: Now, typically when I see when I see.
Speaker 3: Totals for players that are low, I kind of lean
towards letting the line lead the way. Like when you
have a quarterback who has a half yard rushing total,
it typically means the dude ain't leave in the pocket. Right, Well,
Sam Darnald is sitting here at over four and a
half rush yards.
Speaker 4: This is around minus one thirteen is what you have
to do.
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's only averaging on the season five and a
half rush yards per game, so it's right around that number.
But the interesting thing when I started diving into this
one is burst the Division Andy. He kind of pulls
out the stops a little bit more. As far as
a running perspective. He's had eleven or more yards in
all of the games against the Division. He's played four
so far but one, and the one that he didn't
was when they blew out the Cardinals, so he didn't
really need to expend much much extra energy. And if
people remember, Donald was a backup quarterback in San France.
So I don't know if it's the familiarity with some
of these teams. But when he plays the NFC West,
even going back to last year, I about he is
average of fifteen rush yards per game against the NFC West.
And it's not a small sample side. You have eight
games to draw in and he's gone over this number
in all of those eight games but one, and that
was the one I referenced earlier. This season, he's also
cashed in on this specific number in two straight week Andy,
it's do or die time, major game.
Speaker 4: No stops being put on, Sam Darnald.
Speaker 3: Tonight, I'm going over four and a half rush yards,
Sam Donald? Are we fading or are we tailing? WTF
or LFG baby?
Speaker 2: Oh well, honestly I would wait just a little bit
because three and a half's are popping up as I'm
looking at my churt.
Speaker 4: So you're gonna get blown back by the wind? Is
this a wind fade?
Speaker 3: The wind is going to slow him down, he won't
be his aerodynamic Is this why this number is going down?
Speaker 4: That's a good poll there.
Speaker 1: Man, that's it. I will ride on the over with
this one.
Speaker 2: I love these short totals when you can get over
in just one play. And the fact is he's gone over.
He went he had eleven yards against the Rams, and
this is a defense that will get after him and
we'll put pressure on him, and we just need a
couple of plays where he gets outside the pocket. He's
gone under in some games where you know, let's face it,
the competition was not that great. Like Tennessee's not putting
a lot of pressure on you to plush you out
of the pocket. So neither is Arizona. So you look
at some of the teams that he has gone over,
and yeah, some teams that put pressure, So all right
with you on this one. Also, his rush attempts have
been pretty good, even though it was with different teams.
Last four games against the Rams, he's gone over. So yeah,
I think this is a LFG.
Speaker 1: I think this is a right I love it.
Speaker 4: I love it.
Speaker 3: So we got the WTFBLFG. Put the check mark next
to it. We got a tail here from Andy and
on the show, we'll grade it four and a half.
But like Andy said, shop around, there's and a half's
out there. Obviously we want that lower number when we're
talking about props. When it comes to props, sometimes I'll
even lay more juice for the better number. You know,
a lot of the times you're saying money line versus
versus lay in one and a half things like that.
There are times when you definitely want that to go
the opposite way. But for me, props, give me the
best number available, even if I got to eat some
chalk on it. But we will grate it here four
and a half and we want to have some differing opinions.
Speaker 4: We have AWB my lax Man.
Speaker 3: Obviously he's tailing with me, my NL King and SF Niner.
I don't think he's ever tailed any of these. But
we got a WTV. But it's okay, it's okay. I
know what people will be saying, LFG FO andy. And
that's the fact that we got Steve Merrill join in
the program. Steve looking great brother. As always, we're gonna
kick it off. Steve's got two NBA games. He's gonna
be breaking down here for you. But Steve, let's segue
right on in here to Thursday Night Football. Now, if
you're subscribed to the channel and you're a fan of
the solo videos that Steve does, you would be one
of over thirty five thousand people that have watched Steve's
Thursday Night Football game video already this dude breaks down
or this dude, this dude, which way am I pointing this?
Steve Merrill guy, he breaks down every single Prime game
and these Bowl games that you've been breaking down, Steve.
People love these videos. Thirty five thousand people can't be wrong.
We got Amazon Prime tonight, Amazon Prime.
Speaker 4: What are we betting in this one? Steve Howue breaking
this one?
Speaker 6: So you know, I tried to reply to all the
comments I was laying to bet at like one thirty
am Eastern last night, replying to comments, and it was
at twenty seven thousand views. So we've gotten another eight
thousand views in like, uh what eleven hours? So we
got another eight hours to go, folks, let's hit forty thousand.
That's the most ever for a Thursday night video. I
don't think we've ever gotten to forty thousand. So check
it out after this video. And not a surprise because
the Prime, the pre free Prime. Look look what you
did to me, Dan, You took it out of my point.
I took it from me. Now I can't say it.
You got to give it back.
Speaker 3: But now justin yelling at me saying why is it
Steve on already, I mean.
Speaker 6: Yeah, the Prime videos are twelve and three twelve and
three this season, and in fact, if you really want
to get technical, if you take out Dan's Dan's damn Eagles,
because I think I had the over in that Friday
Prime game that missed, we're actually twelve and two on
the Thursday Prime videos for technicalities, but yeah, look, I
think the over is the play tonight. And I've mentioned
this in the video. And you know, Dan and I
recorded this back on Monday, and the weather was dropping
the total a little bit at that point, from forty
six down to forty four forty four and a half,
and I gave a deep dive in the video why
I think rain is overrated as far as totals, and
then all of a sudden, it's forty two and a half.
Speaker 4: Last night.
Speaker 6: People are asking me in the comments, is it's still
a playoff? Was like, yes, nothing has changed, and now
it's forty three. Maybe we're going to see forty three
and a half. And the reason being, I just checked
the weather two minutes ago. It's expected to rain all
day in Seattle half an inch and then stop this
evening around six o'clock, so it's not going to be
raining during the game, it looks like and then the
win factor. You know, when I did the video, I
said ten to twelve miles shri hours, like fifteen mile
per hour, maybe seventeen at most. That's nothing extreme. So
I really think that this total has dropped for the
wrong reasons. I still like the over, and I think
both offenses are capable of moving the ball. Now, these
are two very good defensive teams as well statistically, but
in recent years we see better offenses beat the good defenses.
It wasn't like that back in the nineties when I
started twenty nine and a half years ago as a
full time professional handicapper smash mout football. In the eighties
and nineties, defenses beat offenses. But now with the high
precision passing attacks whether being okay tonight, I think there'll
be some points. And the other thing I like about
the points in this game is that Seattle had a
terrible offensive game. Eighteen points, what was it? Six field goals?
I mean, what do you do in Philip Rivers. He's
a man, he's forty four, fifth oldest quarterback ever to
start an NFL game, and they still barely beat him.
So I looked for the Seahawks defense to offense to
bounce back tonight and wouldn't be shot to the ram
defense is a little fatigued after that comeback, high score
and shootout against Detroit. Head coach McVeagh even said after
the game Sunday like that was a physical game, and
I do think the Rams are the best team in
the NFL. I'm not disrespecting the Rams of the Super
Bowl favor for a reason, but traveling on just three
days of rest and travel, wouldn't be surprised to see
some points tonight.
Speaker 4: And the fact that this is.
Speaker 6: Now down to forty three, which by the way, is
a semi key number. There's some margins that can land
on forty three. So if you still have that forty
two and a half, grab the over. I think this
line's gonna tick higher when people realize it ain't raining
in Seattle tonight.
Speaker 1: I we it's perfect timing because you weren't here.
Speaker 2: We talked about how we thought the weather was a
little overblown good for tonight, so without.
Speaker 4: No pun intended.
Speaker 3: Well, so the only win we want is the win
to Sam Darnold's back, pushing him over four and.
Speaker 6: A half three Andy, I gotta give John Huggle in
one our great social media guy shout out. I'm assuming
it was John, it might have been you, Dan, but
I saw there was a YouTube sort. They to my
my like ten minute video, made a short out of it,
and I referenced the fog Bowl. I talk about, the
only day it really affects scoring is wind and once
a decade fog. So it's really just win and snow.
We've seen the snow games the last couple of weeks,
high scoring, right, the snow and rain does not affect scoring.
But John at the very end of that little like
YouTube short put the fog ball video on. I saw
that late last night. That made my night. So go
check that one out too. But under shift, you might
not remember you're an Eagle fan.
Speaker 4: Dance of course you.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, no, you have to you have to know
and respect the fog ball.
Speaker 4: Andy.
Speaker 3: I know that there will be no fog in these
NBA games, correct. We don't have to worry about any
weather affecting these these uh this doubleheader that we got
for Steve No.
Speaker 2: But there's there's apparently some fog for the Orlando Magic.
Speaker 1: This team has just been decimated with injuries.
Speaker 2: No, I'm serious, like this poor Magic team, Steve on
paper when all teams are healthy, this Orlando Magic team's
really good and they cannot get their guys to stay healthy.
Wagner's tonight, Suggs is out, big Harrow was out earlier
this year, and you're seeing it in the line here.
Dennis is mine at Denver is minus seven over under
two thirty seven. Interested in your take here, Denver. You know,
they get bounced out of the NBA Cup and then
they play that incredible game against Houston the other night.
They have been rested, looks like they're going to have
most of their guys outside of the guys that are
injured Gordon and Braun. What do you break down on
this game?
Speaker 6: Well, mean, first of all, it's kind of like the
many All Star break, and we're always cautious after the
break when teams have been off for a little bit.
And then we have that whole extra dynamic here with
some of these squads. They were actually playing meaningful games
into the playoff round, if you will, of they have
the NBA Cup, So always a little tricky in that regard.
But it is interestly what you say about the injuries
with Orlando and it cracks me up because about a
week ago, in fact, it was last Tuesday. It was
one of the five dollars Tuesday plays I released a
week ago. I had the Orlando Magic last Tuesday. That
would have been back on December ninth, and and I
always put you know, analysis with my plays. I always
put line parameters in the plays as well. And customer
support was message me all days saying, somebody's asking, Wagner's out,
is it still a plian It's like, well, he missed
the last game and he's out tonight, Like that was, now,
that's why Orlando's a home underdog. Yes, it's still a play.
And then Orlando went from plus one to minus one.
Somebody's like, is it still a players? Like, well, on
the line parameters said it minus one and a half
or less, it's still a play. So like, I didn't
want to, like get too cocky, but I knew at
this point the Magic or a slam dunk lock because
when people are looking for a reason not to play
one of my best bets, that's usually a good sign.
And the Magic did win that game on two on
five dollars Tuesday a week ago. And by the way,
that was against the Miami Heat. They won that game
one seventeen, one oh eight. They have alternate wins or
losses of their last five, just two and three straight
up overall, still five and three their last eight. But yeah,
this is a deep team. Yes they're banged up, but
in the game which both teams are coming off some
meaningful games recently. And Denver did have that game against
Houston of course, the other night on what was it
Monday after the Cup, they did win that one by three.
That was a high profile game against the Rockets. We
talked about it here on Waterer Talk today. I think
this could be a little bit of a flat spot
form because they also have the Rockets on deck this Saturday.
This is a non conference sandwich situation for the Denver Nuggets,
and we don't necessarily need Orlando to win this game
out right. They're catching a full seven points right now.
And I know this isn't football, but seven is somewhat
of a key number still even in basketball, because that's
where teams foul or stop falling is around that seven
point mark lading game. So whenever I get a dog
a seven or more that I think is capable of
keeping name close maybe pulling the upset. They're worth a look. Yes,
they're banged up, and I think the Magic are for real.
And by the way, there's been some sharp money on
the over in this game. Open two thirty two and
a half, it's up to two thirty six and a
half mostly two thirty sevens Now does look like some
sharp money was on the over. I would agree with
that move. I do like the over in this game
tonight between Orlando and Denver. I think there'll be some
points scored at nine o'clock Eastern.
Speaker 1: Couldn't talk you off of that one.
Speaker 2: This is Orlando team that was built on def last
year and not so much this year. You know, all right,
we're going to go to the Warriors and the Suns.
Warriors they just look old, Steve, They're just look old.
They are old by NBA standards. And then you've got
this Phoenix Suns team that they've been a weird surprise.
Dylan Brooks Is he's kind of like the new Robert Ry.
Wherever everywhere he goes, they just kind of like win
and he just puts his He's this little gnat, this
like bully that gets in the head of other teams.
He's hilarious to watch. I think it's I think it's hysterical.
Now I'm surprised at this line. Devin Booker is playing tonight.
Phoenix has been good with Booker, Golden State's going to
have their full roster. They're a very, very slight favorite here,
so it's basically a pick them over under a two
thirty one and a half.
Speaker 1: How do you see this game going?
Speaker 6: Yeah, mostly one and a halves out there, but then
you look around. I mean DraftKings is dealing a two
and a half, little extra juice on Phoenix. One of
the Global books says it too, So you definitely shop
around on this one regardless of what side you like,
as this line is really one and a half to
two and a half range, even some two's out there.
So I think this is a situation once again, with
all these teams coming off the mix, Max Mismash scheduled
the last few weeks and whatnot. I always kind of
leaned towards the dogs here, and I do think there's
some reasons, like Phoenix as a home dog a couple
of weeks ago, if you recall here on a Monday
Show about two weeks ago, gave everybody. The Phoenix Suns
against the Lakers. That was way back on December first,
and once again Phoenix was short handed some injuries in
that game, and then I think the Lakers had some
announce didn't matter. Phoenix went from being a big dog,
like a ten point dogged about a five point dog
at tip off. They still won the game outright by seventeen.
They've gone just one and three right up since, but
they've played a really tough schedule. Looking do they played
since then. In fact, even go back before that Laker game.
The last seven games, the Phoenix Suns have played the
Houston Rockets twice, the Lakers twice, Oklahoma City twice, and
oh at Minnesota, which they won out right as an underdog.
So they've played maybe the toughest seven games stretch you'll
see all season for any NBA squad, and I think
that's made them battle tests, and I think there's also
some value with them because of that. And as you said,
Golden State is aging. I'm not in a hurry to
lay points on the road, which a team that's just
three and five straight up and just three and five
against the spread their last eight games. I do think
Phoenix is a live dog in this one and another
game in which we've seen some money on the over
under open two twenty eight and a half, it's up
to two thirty one, even two thirty one and a
half at two thirty one. I think there's still some
value with the over. I like the over in both
games tonight. I think teams are well rested after the
many buye over the last week or so, and we're
going to see some good offense in these games this evening.
That one, by the way, also goes at nine o'clock Eastern.
Speaker 2: Do you have any before I let you go, Steve Dodet,
any quick dots college football playoff first round, any interesting spots,
games you're more interested in than others.
Speaker 6: Well, Andy, I'm gonna do a deep dive videos for
all of these starting today. Actually I'm going to record
them in the next hour so so another reason to
click subscribe click the bell here a Wager Talk TV.
As you know, I'm doing every single Bowl game I've
done so so far. This week got off to the
perfect four ohs start with the first four bowl plays,
and now we have another one going tonight. By the way,
the Missouri State, Arkansas State, game that free play videos
up here once again, four os so far, my first
four Bowl sides.
Speaker 4: I've given you every game.
Speaker 6: Let's see how many we can win here, see if
we can mass that prime record, that twelve and three record.
With that said that, we have two early games tomorrow
on Friday, so I'm going to do a double video
for those, and then I'm going to do a standalone
video for the Alabama Oklahoma game, the Big Boy Game,
and what jumps out to me is how bad Bama
was a week or so ago in the title game
against Georgia. We'll see if they can get back on track,
but I do have a take on that game. And
then of course Saturday, we have three games, include the
two big lines with Oregon and Mississippi. Yes I'm in
Virginia and James Madison country, but I will say this,
I'll mention in the video nobody thinks James Madison has
a chance, and I don't disagree. I kind of like
Oregon in the game as well. And it was twenty
one and a half. It's back to that key number
of twenty one. But everybody I talked to is like Steve,
Oregon blows them out right and now that granted, these
are people that know James Madison's a one double lay school.
Speaker 4: Over the years, we'll see what the nationwide.
Speaker 6: Public consensus is. But that's a tricky game because you've
got the James Madison coach leaving, you got the Tuwange
coach leaving, You've got the Florida coach coming in to
James Madison. But you know, so there's a lot of
dynamics with these big dogs. But I will say Andy,
last year, we all know the home teams did extremely well.
It's a different format. Now we also know those teams
with the bye did not do well. But the better
teams have the buy this year. So it'll be very
interesting to me for me to see over the next
few weeks if we get the same type of outcome
we did last year, where these teams that win in
this round this weekend had the edge next week when
they played the rest at teams. Once again, it's not
like Arizona States getting the buy this year and some
of those week wings that had it last season.
Speaker 1: All right, Steve merrolew what do you have up for
everyone today?
Speaker 6: At wager Talk, we have four countum four College Football
Bowl best bets loaded right now for over the next week,
so it's a great reason to get in early. Lock
in the best lines. I mentioned that four to oh
started the side they've given you free in the videos.
Most of those moved against us because we're on the
sharp side. So it's an other reason to get a
direct subscription. You also can get the NFL, which is
number one in units one over the past year, up
over seventy units in the NFL over the past year.
College and Pro basketball NBA sitting over seventy percent this
month in December. It's just a great time to be
an all sport, all access client. Single day, weekly, monthly packages,
and of course seasonal packages and daily free plays. Steve
merrillwager Talk dot com, WT dot buzz slash sm But
don't forget, I've got a special website right now for
the lowest price I've ever offered this year on a
one year all access for about a dollar a play,
and that's WT dot Buzz slash Steve three sixty five.
It's a special site. You see it on your screen.
It's the only way to get the lowest price I've
offered all season. Get everything for about a dollar play.
Go to that page if you're ready to take a
consistent investment approach. WT Dot Buzz Slash Steve three sixty
five gets it done.
Speaker 2: All right, Steve Merrill, great stuff. Can't wait to watch
those free play videos. You can check all them out here.
The wager Talk YouTube channel got to be subscribed that way,
you get notified every time these videos come up. So really,
really good stuff from Steamer. I'll always appreciate.
Speaker 1: Some darts updates right after this. We'll do all around
the world.
Speaker 2: But we do have one play that I love for
tonight's game Dan Thursday Night Football. We lost by the
hook in excruciating fashion on Monday Night Football, but I'm
still convinced the Reid was right there, so I'm not
deterred by our primetime run. It's twenty five and thirteen
this season, so there's one best bet in that game.
It is a prop WT up buzz Slash al back
with a huge slate of NBA. We laid off last night.
Glad I did the two plays that I leaned towards
wouldn't win, but we had way too many games to
pass up. We got two best bets tonight, so that's
gonna be up at WT dot Buzz slash al really
looking forward to get back intoto WNBA. I think it's
eleven and five run before the NBA Cup, so pretty
proud of that. One quick darts update and then we'll
do all around the world. None of the main like
what I would say, guys that can push to the
final four are have been eliminated.
Speaker 1: There have been some upsets.
Speaker 2: I don't want to nerd out, but the I think
it was the biggest upset in dart's history. This guy
was minus three thousand. He had never left the country
of Africa. This was the first time he had left.
He gets down two sets to zero and then he
comes up to win. The odds were so big live
that they just took him down off the board like
he was just such a it was such a shoe
in to lose, and he comes back. The crowd went
absolutely nuts. What you're seeing is outside the upset here there,
the favorites are really mopping the floor and the stage
with these guys. They Dan They added more games to
the first round of this tournament, so it's taking forever,
Like the second round doesn't even start till like Saturday,
So these guys have been sitting they're gonna be sitting
for like three or four days, so there's a lot
of time in between these matches, which, yeah, it kind
of makes it.
Speaker 1: A little bit, a little bit, a little bit annoying.
Speaker 2: But whatever, Yeah, bets, we still have bets pending. Be honest,
I won't even check bets. I won't even check record
of bets until after Christmas. So yeah, yeah, So it's
been good. Like I said, the main guys that I
would say are contenders to win have not struggled at all.
Speaker 1: So a few upsets here there, but all right, you're
ready to do all around the world.
Speaker 4: And then we just say, oh, I'm ready to do
all around the world. Man, what have we got here tonight?
Speaker 2: Well we gotta make it rams Seahawks addition, so I'll
go with Kyen Williams over fifty five and a half rushing.
If you follow Fantasy Football podcast, Blake korm is this
like really like oh the sleeper, He's like the sexy
guy that, oh I'm gonna pick up Blake Koran. Don't
get it wrong, Kyen is the number one back there.
Easy on the Blake Korum love. Kyen's gone over this
total in three straight eleven out of fourteen games. He
had ninety one against Seattle the season, so I think
this number is pretty low. I'm going Darnald over half
an interception. He only has one interception the last four games.
We went over who their opponents were, and he threw
four against the Rams earlier this season.
Speaker 1: It just sets up for Sam.
Speaker 2: Darnold to throw a couple pretty bad ones and then
I'm a sucker for this one.
Speaker 1: Dan, this is another sexy one. It's public.
Speaker 2: Everyone that picks this one thinks they're being cute. Listen,
everybody that follows the Rams and NFL knows. Colby Parkinson
has been catching touchdowns. It's five out of six games.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 2: He has as many receiving touchdowns as Pooka Nakua. By
the way, Pooka Nakua not a great week in the
In the social media podcast for him, he called out
the Rafts.
Speaker 4: Then he was streaming with Aiden Ross. People are like,
what are you doing on a short week. It's been
a rough week here for.
Speaker 1: Yeah, not a great look for the for Pooka Nkua.
Speaker 6: Uh.
Speaker 2: He tried to sneak in those guys to the game
and the coach told him no.
Speaker 1: What are you doing?
Speaker 2: So, uh, I'm gonna keep my eye on that, Dan.
Distracted Professional athletes are one of the best fades I
don't like if there's something I don't like what I'm
saying about Pooka here so uh yeah, and his brother
just got arrested for stealing an suv?
Speaker 1: What is going home with the nikoua.
Speaker 4: Family household man?
Speaker 2: Quite the Christmas Mom and dad are like, so, how
are things?
Speaker 1: All right? Let's do let's do.
Speaker 4: Quick.
Speaker 3: You got the same game parlay for the folks. You
have one for tonight's game?
Speaker 4: Correct?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 4: All right?
Speaker 3: All right, Well, before we do that, we want to
embrace the debate. We love commenters, whether we're live or not. Here,
I got hit with this one, and I've I've heard
it before and I have been afflicted by it as well.
If folks are fans of Shrek, you know, let me
pull this up here for you.
Speaker 4: Do you see the.
Speaker 3: Resemblance with me and the mascot there. I think it's
the fact that the hair curls. It's on the back
end a little lord bar quad ask. So so we
we we have a new name.
Speaker 4: You got do lock Dan for the folks.
Speaker 2: Here the hat also adds to it like I need
I need to find a red hat.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna I'm gonna find one and go full Lord
farquad on one of these days. But now full disclosure.
Speaker 3: The one time when I got my haircut iny, and
that's what happens sometimes, you know, bunch is up here
at the bottom. And I literally I was saying to
my girlfriend, my now my now wife. I was literally
like having an existential crisis in the mirror. I was like, God,
damn it, I looked like Lord Farquat. And she was like,
you don't look like Lord Parquat. And I pulled up
a picture and she was like, shit, you kind of
look like Lord Farqua. Okay, So so embrace the debate.
It's not that dad, there.
Speaker 2: D because most people are looking in the mirror like
you can make it through today.
Speaker 1: You are a winner. You can make it through today.
Speaker 2: Life could be worse, not much worse, but life could
be worse.
Speaker 1: Like you're you're christ is looking into me. Here's a
little bit, a little bit.
Speaker 2: Better than in the average Joe.
Speaker 4: This is why we love the comments.
Speaker 3: You never know what you're gonna get here, especially once
the guests are done here. Andy but I know we're
gonna be getting same game parlay, and I like this
one quite a bit.
Speaker 4: What he got for the folks in night's game. Yeah.
Speaker 2: And by the way, I haven't seen David in the chat. David,
you won the three day past, but we'll we'll put
the graphic up tomorrow when when I see you in
the live chat. David was the one that won on Tuesday.
Speaker 3: Okay, And for what it's worth, Andy, if he's if
he's watching, but he hasn't been commenting. Customer service, absolutely incredible,
I believe, David. They also have added it to your
account already, so what you can double check me if
that's incorrect. But David, if you are watching, congrats how
did he win this?
Speaker 4: Folks?
Speaker 3: We do some different segments where some of the cappers
who come on here, if they go head to head
with either I or Andy, we let people comment below
with their wage Er Talk user name, and then they're
entered in if they're sign wins. If their capper wins
the head to head match up, they win a free
three day flex pass. We'll be doing that tomorrow with
Teddy's sell Me segment. Andy, so you know you can
always be winning free stuff here. You just got to
be engaged and be.
Speaker 4: Commenting below after the video. But SGP time, Andy, all.
Speaker 2: Right, we're gonna go with Cooper Cup twenty five plus receiving.
They made a concerted effort to try and get him
some catches against his old team, and I like, we're
to the point in the season where teams are just like, listen, JSN,
you're not going to you're not gonna beat us. If
you do, it's gonna because you beat double coverage or something.
I think Cooper Cup's gonna be a reliable target tonight.
I'm going Kyron fifty plus rushing for the reasons before
I mentioned, like Blakecorm's good, Kyroen's still the mand there,
So fifty plus rushing, and then I'm gonna add the
alt line of the first half under twenty six and
a half. These are division rivals, these teams know each other.
This was a Seattle team that struggled to score against
the Colts last week. I think I think this is
a pretty good back and forth and trying to see
both these teams get a couple of touchdowns or have
this beat fourteen fourteen seems like a tall order.
Speaker 1: So I'll add that, and that gets us to plus
two twenty six.
Speaker 2: So Cup twenty five plus receiving Kyron fifty plus rushing
in the first half ault line under twenty six and
a half gets us to plus to twenty six. So
uh Sean wants to add who has the best walkout
in darts? If you guys haven't watched darts, they all
have walkouts. Some of them are laughably bad and some
of them are just insanely good. Bunting's walkout is iconic.
It's it's just incredible. He comes out to the song Titanium,
and if you know, Bunting is this older guy.
Speaker 1: He's to fifty three hundred.
Speaker 2: Bounds big glasses, So him coming out to Titan, he's good.
My personal favorite is I think it's lou Coumphrey's. He
comes out to uh Riot and the cheerleaders just put
a little little bit of something extra into the way
they dance to that song. Yes, they have cheerleaders. They
dance to every song. It's just it's easy to sing along,
it's easy to dance to.
Speaker 1: That's my favorite walkout.
Speaker 2: Sadly, the number one player in the world I think
has one of the weakest walkouts.
Speaker 1: It's a travesty.
Speaker 2: It's an absolute travesty that Luke Litler has one of
the worst walkouts. It's a song nobody can get right
when singing. It's kind of lame. The guy's an absolute
killer and he comes out to this. So what a
English guy coming out to pit Bull.
Speaker 3: Mister worldwide? He is worldwide, so he's allowed to He's
allowed to. H it does ross over the pond there
he's mister Worldwide.
Speaker 2: No, it doesn't. It doesn't make sense me personally. I
think it's Humphreys. But yes, I would say you pulled
out darts audience and Bunting is probably the runaway clear favorite.
So all right, that's gonna do it for us. We
got football Friday tomorrow, Dan, we always do our pick five.
Speaker 1: Are you using tonight's game? I'm not.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not using tonight's game if I had to,
okay tonight.
Speaker 4: I kind of like the Rams. I'm with you.
Speaker 3: I think that you maybe have a little bit not
full on fugaisy with the Seahawks. But there's there's the
script out on how to beat the Seahawks, and I
think the Rams.
Speaker 4: Have the do that the only way I would bet
it though, you're getting one and a half. This is
a great teaser leg I'm getting seven and a half
with the rams. That's a good one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a good one.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I would lean that way.
Speaker 2: But as far as the actual official Pick five Super
Contest picks not going to be official, so we will
go with those.
Speaker 1: Tomorrow.
Speaker 2: Teddy's going to join us. We had to sell me
where when you guys are free three day past. Marco
is going to join us. He's got his breakdowns and
sauce in the week Yanni of course is going to
do the Steam report and then we'll get you all
worked up for the weekend for these pick five All right, guys,
thank you so much. Happy Thursday. Let's have a good
Thursday night. We got a bowl game, we got Thursday
Night Football, get a huge NBA slate. Good luck on
all your bets. Don't forget our best bet for tonight
Thursday Night Football is up at WT dot bus slash al.
It's a prop that I think they've royally screwed up
on the line.
Speaker 1: Stunned to get it.
Speaker 2: Happy to share it with all you over there at
WT dot bus slash ale.
Speaker 1: Good Luck on your best night. We'll see him tomorrow.
Take care,