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Speaker 1: Hey, Happy Saturday morning, Kelly and Vegas. Here, this is

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Wager Talks Last Call. We got to start set the

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lineup for you this morning. Art to Caesar is back

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from the Westgate Superbook, which means we're gonna get all

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the sharp information behind the counter. Yanni the Greek's gonna

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give us from the other side all the stuff that

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he saw groups play what he's seeing in the back

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end of his accounts. Ralph Michaels is gonna take all

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of your college football questions. And of course we have

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a UFC match tonight, So Kyle Anthony's going to join

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the show. If you guys have a question, drop it

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in the chat. That's how this show works. I want

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to get ready start watching football. So I am here

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solely for you, and if you're not asking questions, I'm

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getting out of here because I want to make some

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of these last minute bets. Let's bring in Art to

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Caesar from the Westgate super Book. I know he is

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super busy this morning, as he always is over there

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behind the counter. Art Welcome in. I finally got to

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catch an episode of the best betting show ever. I'm

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so sorry you subject yourself to that every single day

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of the week with the press. But if you guys

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have kind of chance to check it out, it is

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absolutely hilarious. It's a great show, great information.

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Speaker 2: Well I'll say this, I actually take Mondays off because

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that's a mental health day for me after you know,

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doing the show with them all week, So Monday, I

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need a day to myself, you know, and away we go.

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Speaker 3: I love that for you. I wish I got one

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of those.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to be joining the pres on end Zone

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Live tomorrow watching the games, and I'm already like, all right,

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what is going to be my drink of choice here?

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Because last time President I were on the same side

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was the Eagles. They were getting obliterated and the next thing,

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you know, chaos ensued. It ended up being a really

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fun time. All right, let's get into kind of what

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we got on this beautiful college football say, A lot

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of really great games today.

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Speaker 3: Obviously, we've got the Red.

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Speaker 1: River Shootout or Rivalry or whatever the heck it's called

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now they're in the Cotton Bowl. We've got a pair

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of really nice SEC games and a couple of those

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under the radar SEC games. But first I want you

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to kind of rattle off what you guys are seeing

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early action here for this Saturday morning.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, let's just start early early kickoffs. Charlotte atte Army,

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you saw a lot of early Army money. They laid

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seventeen and a half. They laid eighteen and a half

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up to nineteen and a half on that game Pitt

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and FSU very interesting. They took Pitt at eleven, they

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laid ten. With Florida State, we've kind of settled back

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in the middle there at ten and a half, so

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we've seen two groups on both sides of that game.

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Ucla at Michigan State. Early it was really one way

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traffic on UCLA eight and a half seven and a half.

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We were at Michigan State seven this morning, and then

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we saw some money coming there and moved us back

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to seven and a half. Interesting on that we don't

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talk a lot of totals, but the total really got

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bet down on that game fifty four and a half

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all the way to fifty two. So keep that in mind.

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Bama Missouri is a game where they're just gonna basically

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go three to three and a half the whole day.

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That's what they're gonna do. There are a lot of

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three minus twenties out there. We don't like to do

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that for the most part, but if we have to,

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we will be sharp. Money on Missouri was at three

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and a half. Ohio State saw money when it got

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to fourteen, but the early money was on Illinois. So

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you know, listen, we'll probably need Illinois in the game

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regardless because you know Ohio State will be a sweetener

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for everyone's money line parlays. That's just how it goes.

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Speaker 1: Kind of go into the madness behind that, because I

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think a lot of times when I text people, oh,

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here are the Westgate needs, they don't really understand it. Right,

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You've got sharp money coming in early in the week,

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you've got recreational money coming in, you've got house players

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being thrown into the mix, and all of those.

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Speaker 3: Factors tend to come up with what you need. Now.

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Speaker 1: John Murray makes it easy on Monday nights, He's like, hey,

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we need the Giants to win out right, But Saturday,

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because there's so many games, there's so many moneyline parlays.

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Speaker 3: There's people that tease college football.

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Speaker 1: We're not even going to get into that, but a

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lot of kind of crazy things that start to happen.

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Speaker 3: The needs are a little bit.

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Speaker 2: Different absolutely, talking about teasing college football or one of

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our best house players thirty thousand dollars teas morning with

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Old Miss and Ohio State six point teaser. Why yeah,

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I mean Ohio Old Miss minus twenty six now in

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a teaser. So it does happen. Obviously, it's not as

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prevalent with the teasers as is the NFL because of

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the key numbers. But you're right that early week action too.

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A lot of the times a game could get faked.

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You know, it could be they're taking four, they're taking

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three and a half, they want to get it under

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that field goal so then they can really plow minus

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two and a half. So that happens a lot too.

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You gotta be a little bit weary of those early

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you know, week moves because also to the limits they're

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you know, they're not as big. Obviously on a Saturday,

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we're at full limits. So always keep that in mind.

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Speaker 1: What are full limits there at the Westgates super But

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for if somebody wanted to come in with a briefcase

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full of cash, what can I really get down over

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the counter.

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Speaker 3: I know the app limits are going to be a

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little different.

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Speaker 2: Of course, Apple limits are always different. We always try

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to extend people over the counter. I mean, if you're

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going to come in a college football game over the

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counter and we don't know you and it's like a

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first time bet, you know, you could definitely get ten

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times on a game, you know, just the regular game.

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Now if it's a bigger, high profile game, some games

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where we designate this is a bigger game, I don't

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see why you couldn't get twenty. I mean, you know,

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obviously we always want to establish new players and establish

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kind of what's going on with that player, and we

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evaluate as we go through the process.

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Speaker 1: Well, and I think also Saturday morning too, if you

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need the other side, you're the side they want to bet,

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maybe you're gonna take a little bit more, take a

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little bit less.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's kind.

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Speaker 1: Of go over some of more of these games here

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Johnny Detroit in the comment section. Of course, he's asking

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about Michigan USC. I think the initial reaction, at least

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for myself, is whenever I see a ranked team catching points,

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I'm going, oh, boys, is.

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Speaker 3: This gonna be the square dog here?

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Speaker 1: But John Murray told me on Kelly and Murray this

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week that they saw early money on Michigan.

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Speaker 2: We did now when that was the game of the year,

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that was a pick, and then we reopened usc minus three.

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We did see Michigan money at three. We saw Michigan

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money on the money line there. We've kind of been

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going back and forth. That's one too, where we go

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to two and a half, they lay two and a

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half when we go to three. So that's been a

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real back and forth game some kind of the twelve

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thirty states. This is one where I thought it was

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a fake. Early in the week they took Colorado at

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four and three and a half and three in Iowa

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State was two and a half, and I was waiting

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and waiting and waiting, when's the big Iowa State money

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gonna come. It came a little bit and we moved

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back to three, but it wasn't as prevalent as I thought.

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That really wasn't a fake. The sharps really are on Colorado.

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Arkansas took a lot of money. Twelve and a half,

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eleven and a half. Tennessee now minus ten at home

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Tennessee is going to be a need for us. I

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know a game that you have talked about Nebraska and Maryland.

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That's another one. Two way action. They lay six and

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a half in Nebraska, they take seven with Maryland. So

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been really going back and forth with that. We need

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your team today, Kelly, K State so much TCU mone Sorry,

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I know we need k State in that game. A

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lot of TCU money. TCU now up to a two

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point favorite. Indiana and Oregon. This was a game of

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the year and it was Oregon minus fourteen. So I mean,

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obviously Indiana has been kind of you know, they've been

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repower rated, you know, a little bit higher than normal.

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Not that Oregon's been downgraded, but when we reopened this

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we were as high as nine. Saw Indiana money there,

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and then we saw in Indiana money at seven and

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a half. Oregon now minus seven, and then you know

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this Red River shootout game because you don't know, I

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guess the quarterback's probably gonna play. But this thing's been

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going back and forth. We were sitting at pick this morning.

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Now we're back to Texas minus one and a half.

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We've seen a lot of Texas money all week, so

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we really need Oklahoma in the game. Oklahoma's probably within

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our top two needs of the day.

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Speaker 1: Wow, that is not something I expected to hear that

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you were gonna need Oklahoma, especially if John Mattier is

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a go I'm gonna go ahead, and guess he probably is.

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But I think a lot of people, myself included, are

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expect an arch Manning bounce back. Yeah, we'll see how

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that one goes. Okay, a couple more questions before we

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get you out of here. Another big SEC game, and

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John and I talked about this as well, similar to

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Alabama Miszoo.

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Speaker 3: It's at three three and a half.

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Speaker 1: It kind of, I think, is like that fishy line

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assuming a lot of people want to take Georgia in

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this spot.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know, we saw we were three, and

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then we saw Georgia money at three and a half

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even and it got us to four on the game.

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So you know, the initial flood of money from the

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public and the sharps have been on Georgia.

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Speaker 3: Interesting. Interesting, interesting. Okay.

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Speaker 1: Of course, everybody wants to know your best bet, and

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we're gonna get to that in a minute, don't you worry.

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Speaker 3: Art is been on fire.

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Speaker 1: With those best be's kind of give me anything else

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you've got for the rest of the Saturday slate.

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Speaker 3: In terms of what you guys are.

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Speaker 2: Going to be rooting for yeah, sure, some of the

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late stuff. We saw Clemson money in minus thirteen, minus

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thirteen and a half up to fourteen against bc BC

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looked like they had never played offense last week, and

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they're now back on Clemson. The Arizona State Utah game

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is a shame now because they are on a state quarterback.

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It's just basically dead. He's not gonna play. So you

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got Utah up to ten now. People took under forty

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nine early in the week on that we're now forty

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half four.

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Speaker 1: I played the stale line because you know you're yep,

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you get stale numbers sometimes. I was back and forth

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on USC. I was looking at YouTube. I was like,

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you know what, let me just play the stale number

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on Utah. Ten is shocking. I'm all this close now

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to firing back on Arizona State and just hoping for

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a nice What are we talking four and a half

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point middle?

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Speaker 2: Oh? Absolutely, I mean that thing was four and a

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half when we reopened. It got the five pretty quickly.

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The total's gone down five points, so really crazy move there,

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and it ruins what's a really good late night game,

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best late night game of the week. Produce a lot

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of money at plus nine and a half, plus eight

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and a half Minnesota now seven point favorite at home.

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San Diego State saw initial money at six and a half,

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got all the way up to seven and a half,

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and then we saw the buy back on Nevada at

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seven and a half. That's always a theme when you're

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at that touchdown, you see lay it under it and

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you see him take it over that. That's always a

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big thing. And here's another under the radar game, sharp

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money on Rice at plus eleven and a half, Uts

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now minus ten at home.

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Speaker 1: All right, a couple more questions before we get you

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out of here. Jojo wants to know same thing I

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want to know. Let's talk about Florida A and M.

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Speaker 3: Here.

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Speaker 1: Florida off that upset over Texas last week. A and

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M's offense looks to be rolling. I think this is

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a case for the better defense plus the points. What

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are you seeing on your end?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's pretty good two way. But I

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would say the initial flood of money did come in

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on Florida, so I would say A and M probably

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a small need.

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Speaker 3: Okay, A and M small need.

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Speaker 1: Any Nick wants to know what are the heaviest public

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bets for today.

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Speaker 2: Oh that's interesting. I would say your heavy public bets

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are probably Michigan State and Alabama. Okay, I would say

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those are two pretty good heavy public things. I mean,

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Oregon's going to be pretty public. They're going to be

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popular in the moneyline parlay today. People you know who

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really don't watch college football week in and week I'll

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probably have no respect for Indiana. Not saying I love Indiana,

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but I think Oregon will be very much a public

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team today.

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Speaker 3: All right, we're gonna get you out of here. I

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know you are busy.

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Speaker 1: He did say that early money did come on Pitt.

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Then they came back and played Fsu Preston. If you

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missed that one, let's get your best bet.

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Speaker 3: And get you onto Monday so you can get that

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day off.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I did it. I'm gonna take an ugly one.

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I'm gonna take UL Lafayette plus eighteen and a half

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against James Madison. It's a small total as far as

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college football. It's in the low forties. I'm almost getting

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three touchdowns. I think they can keep it within that.

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Speaker 1: A game that I didn't think I was gonna want

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to watch today, but here we go. Caesar at Art

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Dice twenty one on social media.

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Speaker 3: Make sure you guys are giving him a follow.

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Speaker 1: You can also check him out on the Best Betting

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Show Ever with Joe Ranieri and the Press right here

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on the wager Talk YouTube channel. Thank you Art, and

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do not forget guys, reduced juice. They're at the Westgate

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super Book, Primetime Games Game Day and of course Sundays

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you're getting minus want to wait on NFL sides, which

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is just absolutely amazing. We're gonna bring in VR right now.

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He's gonna give us the other look behind the counter,

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the look from the sharp side.

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Speaker 3: VR, welcome in. I know you've been waiting the wings.

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Speaker 1: Anything to comment on basically what Art had to say,

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any conflicting information, anything you agree with?

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Speaker 4: No, real quickly, he just confirmed Louisiana Lafayette for me.

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Speaker 3: I love him.

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Speaker 1: That's great, all right, Louisiana Lafayette. Be right back.

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Speaker 3: Me and VR are just gonna start live betting mid.

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Speaker 4: Showing that that's exactly what I'm doing right now.

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Speaker 3: I love that.

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Speaker 1: We're both just gonna do it while you guys generate

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some questions here. We're gonna get our bets in VR.

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What's the rotation number there so I can do this quickly.

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Speaker 4: Louisiana Lafayette is Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Plus eighteen and a half minus one oh five.

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Speaker 1: Look at that. What a beauty, VR, what a beauty.

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We're gonna join our live bet team bet here on

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Wager Talks Last Call. You guys can watch VR with

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me every single week on bet on It. We have

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absolutely been crushing the barking dogs. He gave out another

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huge barking dog this week. We're gonna see how that

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plays out. Looks like they're playing a wide receivers quarterback

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VR and I was like, oh no, he thinks we're

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about in high school.

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Speaker 3: Everybody relaxed.

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Speaker 1: It is still a ton of points, and it would

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not be surprised to see the Cowboys show a little

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bit of grit. We'll get to some more of these

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college football questions here in just a minute.

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna let VR kind of do his thing. You

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guys are gonna get.

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Speaker 1: A small preview of what you see on the Steam report,

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whether it's on bet on It or Sunday mornings before

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NFL kickoff.

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Speaker 4: Yep, and real quickly, I got it. Guys always asking

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why do we fireing five percents in college football. We've

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won every single week. We don't have to. The four

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percent have been doing good enough, so please stop with

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the DMS when we find a big bet, and subscribers,

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you see how I'm doing it. You got a four

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percent on the side and a two percent on the month,

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so we have even more than a five percent bet

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out there on two college football today, so we're getting down.

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Don't worry about that. Let me give you those two

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first quarter bets real quickly because those do really well.

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I gave those two subscribers. We bet Virginia Tech Virginia

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Tech in the first half, Virginia Tech plus seven and

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a half in the first half, don't be afraid to

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sprinkle that money line and plus three thirty. I'm just

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going to throw that out there also first quarter Ucla

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Ucla plus three and a half. Don't be afraid to

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sprinkle the plus one eighty as well on the money line.

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And finally, Stanford Stanford plus the touchdown, also in the

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first quarter. So those are some of those first quarter bets.

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Oklahoma Texas no surprise, Texas is now a two to

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two and a half point favorite. We did our job,

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we thought they were undervalue earlier in the week that

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line was about to pick them when I gave them

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out to my guys. So hopefully Texas goes out there

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and gets it done. I didn't like what Art said.

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With all that risk piling up on Texas, I did

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not expect that. I thought the sooner money would continue

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to come in, but our bets already placed. I know

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people like to know what the public's on. I wrote

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down the most one sided bets that I see in

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the back end public accounts. Mississippi. They're betting Mississippi blindly,

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They're betting Ohio State blindly. They're betting Texas Tech blindly,

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Alabama and Utah. Those five are the biggest. Mississippi, Ohio State,

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Texas Tech, Alabama.

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Speaker 5: And Utah.

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Speaker 4: Those are straight bets, parlayd teaser in all kinds of combinations,

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some of the sharp action. I'll share that with you

355
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if you watched bet on It. We already covered a

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couple more key games there that were earlier hit earlier

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in the week.

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Speaker 5: Here's some more for you.

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Speaker 4: One sixty six Colorado plus the four and plus the

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three one se Michigan plus the three four Illinois. We

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00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:08,039
saw Illinois against Ohio State all the way down the

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plus fourteen and a half, be careful. I'm starting to

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00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:15,039
see Public even starting to take those two touchdowns again.

364
00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:18,399
Ohio State was so one sided early that that's one

365
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of the biggest risks for the books. But even with

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UH seeing some love on the Illinois side from the

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sharp betters. And Purdue Purdue plus ten, Purdue plus nine

368
00:16:31,879 --> 00:16:34,799
as well, also one twenty one you mass, you mass

369
00:16:34,799 --> 00:16:38,559
plus three. That's opposite Public for whatever reason, they're betting

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00:16:38,919 --> 00:16:43,159
the favorite in that game heavily. And also Toledo. Toledo

371
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got hit two times this morning. They got hit at

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eight and a half nine earlier, they got hit again

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at nine and a half ten, and I think they're

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getting hit again right now. Uh, that's an early game.

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And then a total for you under fifty seven fifty

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00:16:56,919 --> 00:16:59,559
six and a half in Michigan USC. I know we're

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all low to board. I have a lot of information here.

378
00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:06,759
It's a busy day of college football, UFC, baseball, NFL tomorrow.

379
00:17:06,839 --> 00:17:09,880
But it's all organized. Then we're ready to do some damage.

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00:17:10,039 --> 00:17:12,200
Speaker 3: They really are. You guys have never seen VR's notes.

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He is very organized.

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Speaker 1: Even though he and are a little all over the place.

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00:17:15,839 --> 00:17:17,920
We are very organized human beings. You guys don't want

384
00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:19,640
to see my note sheet this morning. It is h

385
00:17:20,039 --> 00:17:20,759
it is wild.

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Speaker 3: Okay.

387
00:17:21,119 --> 00:17:22,920
Speaker 1: A couple of questions here from the chat where I

388
00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:25,920
get you out of here, Raw Dog twelve, we'll get

389
00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:28,240
back to those. Rod Dog twelve wants to know his

390
00:17:28,279 --> 00:17:31,759
first quarter Stanford is six and a half. So this

391
00:17:31,799 --> 00:17:33,400
does happen a lot vr a lot.

392
00:17:33,599 --> 00:17:34,599
Speaker 3: You guys are moving it.

393
00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:38,680
Speaker 1: No other book makers are moving it, and unfortunately when

394
00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:41,720
you're getting the secondhand information, sometimes you're getting the worst

395
00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:45,799
of the number. So that's kind of my thought process

396
00:17:45,839 --> 00:17:47,519
here is, hey, what do we do?

397
00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:51,240
Speaker 4: Here's how I'm okay kel not. Then here's how I

398
00:17:51,279 --> 00:17:53,440
deal with it. And I tell guys in the steam

399
00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:56,119
room all the time so they don't bother customer service.

400
00:17:56,720 --> 00:18:01,480
Number one, I give out enough volume that no subscribers

401
00:18:01,519 --> 00:18:05,759
forced to take bad numbers just to have action. More importantly,

402
00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:09,519
what number is it? Is it a key number like

403
00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:13,200
seven or three. If that's the case, then you have

404
00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:17,680
two options. You pass completely or you limit your risk.

405
00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:20,400
If I have a four percent at plus seven and

406
00:18:20,519 --> 00:18:22,480
you still like the side, but you have six and

407
00:18:22,519 --> 00:18:25,160
a half, maybe drop it down to a three percent,

408
00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:28,640
a two percent. Just limit your risk. The less value

409
00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:31,440
you have, the smaller your bet should be. The more

410
00:18:31,559 --> 00:18:33,839
value you have, the bigger your bet should be. So

411
00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:36,400
when there's times that I send out a plus seven

412
00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:38,519
and your guy has seven and a half, you bet

413
00:18:38,559 --> 00:18:41,000
a little bit more because you're getting a better number.

414
00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:43,279
If you're getting a worse number, you bet a little

415
00:18:43,279 --> 00:18:46,359
bit less, or you pass. It really is that simple,

416
00:18:46,599 --> 00:18:48,880
and I know it's frustrating, but I go through it

417
00:18:49,079 --> 00:18:49,759
all day.

418
00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:53,000
Speaker 6: Every day I'm betting for these groups.

419
00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:54,960
Speaker 4: And then I have to get my own money down.

420
00:18:55,079 --> 00:18:57,599
I have to make that same decision you guys are making.

421
00:18:57,920 --> 00:18:59,960
Do I take a half point worse? Do I take

422
00:19:00,079 --> 00:19:03,279
a point worse? Because there are times it doesn't matter,

423
00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:05,799
like you're still getting the best of it, But there's

424
00:19:05,839 --> 00:19:11,079
time that's not the case not to go long. But individually,

425
00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:13,519
you have to decide on your own, like what's your

426
00:19:13,599 --> 00:19:17,880
risk tolerance. But I always tell subscribers, with enough volume,

427
00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:20,960
you never have to take bad numbers, like that's that's

428
00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:23,359
the key. We have more than enough bets that you

429
00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:25,920
could get down good bets. You don't have to chase

430
00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:27,559
bad numbers. That's my advice.

431
00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:32,400
Speaker 1: Okay, very good advice from VR. All right, VR, really quickly,

432
00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:34,119
we're gonna get to a couple more questions before we

433
00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:35,680
get you out of here. What do you have going

434
00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:38,000
on right now at wager talk dot com?

435
00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:39,240
Speaker 5: Two? What a weekend?

436
00:19:39,319 --> 00:19:42,799
Speaker 4: I have my Saturday College Football up. Every play in

437
00:19:42,839 --> 00:19:46,240
that is a four percent play in there in the

438
00:19:46,319 --> 00:19:49,839
daily package. Subscribers also get the threes the twos. I

439
00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:53,079
have my UFC package. UFC goes off early today. I

440
00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:54,960
hit my five percent last week in the UFC. I

441
00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:57,640
have another five percent today in the UFC. I have

442
00:19:57,759 --> 00:20:02,680
Sunday NFL with my first in a while. It's been

443
00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:05,599
weeks since we fired an NFL five percent. Don't wait

444
00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:08,720
on that because I have the game over there in

445
00:20:08,759 --> 00:20:11,039
Europe on there that goes off at three point thirty

446
00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:14,799
am Eastern time. So that package will come down by

447
00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:17,400
morning when you wake up, and that five percent's in there.

448
00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:20,039
You don't want to miss it. So busy weekend, and

449
00:20:20,079 --> 00:20:22,599
we'll have the steam room heading into kickoff tomorrow.

450
00:20:22,839 --> 00:20:23,160
Speaker 3: All right?

451
00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:25,319
Speaker 1: Tell everybody what to expect of the steamer room. Who

452
00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:27,680
is invited to the steam room this week?

453
00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:28,400
Speaker 6: All right?

454
00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:31,720
Speaker 4: It's subscribers that are a month or more, you guys

455
00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:33,359
are going to be able to come in there that

456
00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:35,720
final hour leading up the kickoff. We're going to go

457
00:20:35,759 --> 00:20:38,599
through every game as quickly as possible so I could

458
00:20:38,599 --> 00:20:41,839
share side total, any props I have. We're going to

459
00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:44,720
go over year to date results and what the goal

460
00:20:44,839 --> 00:20:47,559
is through the end of the year, are bet sizing

461
00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:49,839
how we manage our risk, and then I'm there to

462
00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:53,799
answer any question you have on individual games. And finally

463
00:20:53,799 --> 00:20:56,799
about fifteen minutes for kickoff will wrap up those teasers

464
00:20:57,119 --> 00:20:59,559
that are nine and three so far this year.

465
00:21:00,079 --> 00:21:02,240
Speaker 1: All right, if you are a couple of questions really quickly,

466
00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:05,160
I was teasing you about the Oklahoma State thing, and

467
00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:07,680
those are kind of sometimes the casualties of.

468
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:08,000
Speaker 3: What we do.

469
00:21:08,079 --> 00:21:10,440
Speaker 1: If you took the place with Arizona State and then

470
00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:13,559
they announced Sam Levit's going to be out quarterback uh

471
00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:15,880
Andrey for Oklahoma State. Now a guy who played quarterback

472
00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:18,000
in high school will be starting, so obviously a significant

473
00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:20,799
line move. Do you still like the spot for Oklahoma

474
00:21:20,839 --> 00:21:22,400
State or is at this point in time you're just like,

475
00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:24,960
all right, I got the worst of it, not only

476
00:21:25,079 --> 00:21:27,920
number wise, but information wise. What do you recommend people

477
00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:28,240
do here?

478
00:21:28,759 --> 00:21:31,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, personally, I just let it go kel. I don't

479
00:21:31,319 --> 00:21:33,640
try to find ways to get off the bet when

480
00:21:33,759 --> 00:21:37,000
something like that happens, because I already got down the

481
00:21:37,039 --> 00:21:39,759
way that I get passed it. Mentally is I know

482
00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:42,279
that in the majority of my bets, if not seven

483
00:21:42,279 --> 00:21:44,519
out of ten or greater, I will get the best

484
00:21:44,559 --> 00:21:46,279
of it. But there are going to be those times

485
00:21:46,319 --> 00:21:47,960
when you try to get out ahead of the market

486
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:52,039
that information comes out later that goes against you. You

487
00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:55,119
just gotta swallow that. You gotta eat it, roll the dice,

488
00:21:55,279 --> 00:21:57,279
and hope you get lucky. Now, I have a bad

489
00:21:57,319 --> 00:21:59,519
bet on Oklahoma State at plus fourteen and a half

490
00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:02,160
open to be the product of good luck. I wouldn't

491
00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:05,640
chase after it by betting it now at a bigger number.

492
00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:08,119
If you didn't bet it yet, I probably would because

493
00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:11,279
I think the adjustment's a little bit too significant. But

494
00:22:12,039 --> 00:22:15,160
that's how I approach it. Once the BET's placed, it's placed,

495
00:22:15,319 --> 00:22:18,680
we move on and more times than not again, as

496
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:21,279
long as we're getting the best of the number more

497
00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:23,880
times than not, that's what we're going to keep trying

498
00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:25,160
to do. Get out ahead of the market.

499
00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:27,920
Speaker 1: Do you guys. For example, like I said to Art

500
00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:31,559
in the super Conness College, I took the stale number

501
00:22:31,559 --> 00:22:33,640
with Utah with some of my partners, two of them

502
00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:34,880
out of the six set it.

503
00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:35,480
Speaker 3: Let's do it.

504
00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:37,920
Speaker 1: Do you think it's smart to try to come back

505
00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:40,920
and middle if you will on Arizona State now at

506
00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:43,839
this point in time, or is that just kind of like, hey,

507
00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:45,920
you know what, you got the best of the information,

508
00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:47,079
you got the best of the number.

509
00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:47,599
Speaker 3: Let it go.

510
00:22:48,079 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 4: If I like you talk kill, then I let I

511
00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:53,039
keep it because I have a bet that I like

512
00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:56,039
at a great number. If I just bet it because

513
00:22:56,039 --> 00:22:58,759
I thought i'd get a great bet in and I'm

514
00:22:58,799 --> 00:23:01,759
getting out ahead of the market with the total drop

515
00:23:01,759 --> 00:23:04,880
in the way it has, I'd probably look to middle

516
00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:08,319
this game because it's more highly probable that I could

517
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:11,519
hit that middle. Otherwise, like you said, I know, I

518
00:23:11,559 --> 00:23:13,279
got a good bet in my pocket, so I let

519
00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:16,279
it go if I have an opinion on that side.

520
00:23:16,319 --> 00:23:18,359
If I don't have an opinion, then I'm just going

521
00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:20,519
to lock in some profit if possible, and I'll work

522
00:23:20,559 --> 00:23:21,039
that middle.

523
00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:21,759
Speaker 7: All right.

524
00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:25,039
Speaker 1: Great, great advice always from the great gambler. You guys

525
00:23:25,039 --> 00:23:27,960
can check him out every single week on wager Talk Today,

526
00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:30,480
beat on it with me. He's always here on Last Call.

527
00:23:30,519 --> 00:23:33,039
He'll be joining Aero Epsceine tomorrow for the NFL edition,

528
00:23:33,559 --> 00:23:35,720
And of course we're gonna give you guys a couple

529
00:23:35,799 --> 00:23:38,240
sneak peaks if you guys are a wager Talk insider,

530
00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:43,640
WT Dot buzz Backslash insiders. This week is for subscribers only,

531
00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:45,839
but we're gonna open that back up to all of

532
00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:49,759
our members here shortly, give you guys, give VR follow

533
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:52,799
at Greek Underscore, Gambler, don't forget to hit that like

534
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:55,480
button thumbs up. There's almost three thousand of you guys

535
00:23:55,559 --> 00:23:58,279
watching with us live right now, and we've got about

536
00:23:58,279 --> 00:24:00,319
thirty six minutes still KICKFF. So we're gonna keep role

537
00:24:00,319 --> 00:24:01,720
and we're gonna let VR get out of here because

538
00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:03,359
I know he's got a lot of work ahead of him.

539
00:24:03,559 --> 00:24:06,440
Thank you for always taking the time, VR, And all

540
00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:09,200
of these college football questions that I've now starred, I've

541
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:11,000
been annoying our producer the whole time. I've been trying

542
00:24:11,039 --> 00:24:13,440
to star all the questions, except I keep adding them

543
00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:15,480
to the show so I can go back and get

544
00:24:15,519 --> 00:24:17,640
an answer for you guys. Ralph Michaels is coming in

545
00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:19,880
to do that for us. I see Kyle Anthony waiting

546
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:21,640
in the wings. So if you guys have a UFC question,

547
00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:23,480
drop it in the chat and we will get to

548
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:27,559
that shortly. Ralph Michaels, you look so short compared to

549
00:24:27,599 --> 00:24:30,759
me for once in our lives. There we go.

550
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:32,839
Speaker 3: I you love to see it.

551
00:24:33,559 --> 00:24:35,839
Speaker 6: Kelly, you said, what is your drink of choice for

552
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:37,680
pres tomorrow? Is there any options?

553
00:24:38,599 --> 00:24:39,160
Speaker 2: I got mine?

554
00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:41,359
Speaker 1: Mine are probably getting kind of old sitting on the

555
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:41,599
showf B.

556
00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:43,920
Speaker 3: How much you probably drink those and swap those out?

557
00:24:44,559 --> 00:24:47,839
I love it. You got Viva Handy for the pool later.

558
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:49,359
Speaker 6: I do want to Kelly.

559
00:24:49,759 --> 00:24:52,920
Speaker 7: While you guys were talking about unranked favorites, I went

560
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:56,400
to the database, and remember this early in the season,

561
00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:57,319
the ranks are a joke.

562
00:24:57,519 --> 00:25:00,680
Speaker 6: Coaches don't pay attention a guy Lou He's out.

563
00:25:00,799 --> 00:25:03,359
Speaker 7: So this is very interesting and I think it makes

564
00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:06,119
incredible sense unranked favorites.

565
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:08,839
Speaker 6: I went back to two thousand and seventeen.

566
00:25:09,599 --> 00:25:13,680
Speaker 7: Unranked favorites the first five weeks of the season twenty

567
00:25:13,799 --> 00:25:15,599
nine and seventeen sixty.

568
00:25:15,279 --> 00:25:18,480
Speaker 6: Three percent, So the rankings meet shit.

569
00:25:18,599 --> 00:25:21,200
Speaker 7: People are moving up and down you might be unranked,

570
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:23,880
but you might be one spot below being ranked. You

571
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:27,319
might only be one point away, but unranked favorites from

572
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:31,079
game number seven on thirty five and forty seven thirty

573
00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:35,400
eight percent. Why the rankings mean something. You're into conference games.

574
00:25:35,799 --> 00:25:40,559
You have an established offense and defense statistical profiles. So

575
00:25:41,039 --> 00:25:43,200
don't fall into that trap when you get a couple

576
00:25:43,279 --> 00:25:45,559
of these early favorites winning later in the season.

577
00:25:45,599 --> 00:25:47,559
Speaker 6: It does not work that way, all right.

578
00:25:47,599 --> 00:25:51,200
Speaker 1: I saved all these college football questions about the actual

579
00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:53,759
games themselves, not just the markets and so forth, for

580
00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:57,240
Ralph because Ralph does a weekly college football show called

581
00:25:57,279 --> 00:26:01,960
the Blitz. He Brian Power, Benjamin Steve Merrill's been joining

582
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:04,319
in here from time to time as well go over

583
00:26:04,519 --> 00:26:07,079
the entire college football card. So if you guys have

584
00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:08,279
not got a chance to check that out on the

585
00:26:08,319 --> 00:26:10,960
Wager Talking YouTube channel, I highly recommend it.

586
00:26:11,079 --> 00:26:12,559
Speaker 3: Ralph knows his college football.

587
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:14,799
Speaker 1: So we're just gonna start off with this question because

588
00:26:14,839 --> 00:26:17,640
I want to know here we are. I got a

589
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:23,039
big need from h John Murray, they're gonna need K State.

590
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:25,720
I got a big need from Art They're gonna need

591
00:26:25,799 --> 00:26:27,920
K State. Ralph, I don't want to bet this Case

592
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:31,119
Saint team. This team has just drove me nuts all year,

593
00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:33,799
including last weekend when they Absolution won that game in

594
00:26:33,799 --> 00:26:35,960
Waco like I said they would, and then they blew

595
00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:39,839
a double digit lead. What are you thinking about this

596
00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:42,440
Case State team. I've been joking, it's not a joke

597
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:44,319
because it's real, the Air Lingus Classic.

598
00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:46,839
Speaker 3: Whoever loses it is doomed. They are cursed.

599
00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:51,960
Speaker 1: Ask Nebraska, Ask Florida State. This Case State team's without

600
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:54,880
Dylan Edwards. Once again, this line is obviously moving in

601
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:57,240
the direction of TCU, and I kind of don't blame anybody.

602
00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:00,119
Speaker 6: Well, you look at Dylan Edwards. I mean they have

603
00:27:00,559 --> 00:27:00,880
they have.

604
00:27:02,319 --> 00:27:05,119
Speaker 7: Four players that are between one hundred and two hundred

605
00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:07,559
yards rushing, so they really don't have a go to rusher.

606
00:27:07,759 --> 00:27:10,720
Avery Johnson's still the leader. You know, their stat profile

607
00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:13,640
is not as bad as their record. Obviously they're two

608
00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:15,920
and three off the loss at Baylor. But you look

609
00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:18,519
at Kansas State. They played the twenty eighth toughest schedule

610
00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:22,599
and they're number sixty two in yards per play diff.

611
00:27:22,599 --> 00:27:24,079
Speaker 6: And that's usually my go to number.

612
00:27:24,319 --> 00:27:26,440
Speaker 7: Case State has played a weaker schedule and they're only

613
00:27:26,519 --> 00:27:30,200
twelve spots better. I just can't trust Kansas State. And

614
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:32,400
there's times when you follow a team kell and you

615
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:34,720
know this. If you just cannot get a read on

616
00:27:34,799 --> 00:27:38,039
Kansas on a team, it's okay not to play them.

617
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:39,799
Speaker 6: This is the game I threw out early.

618
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:43,079
Speaker 7: When I go through the stat profile, the situations, my

619
00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:45,799
power ratings numbers, if they cross them off, I throw

620
00:27:45,839 --> 00:27:48,599
them out early. It usually leaves me about twenty games

621
00:27:49,319 --> 00:27:50,720
during the week that I'm studying.

622
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:52,359
Speaker 6: This is one that I tossed early.

623
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:57,400
Speaker 7: I'm with you, I cannot bet the purple Kansas State

624
00:27:57,440 --> 00:27:58,799
Wildcats with your money tail.

625
00:27:59,160 --> 00:27:59,200
Speaker 2: No.

626
00:27:59,599 --> 00:28:03,039
Speaker 1: I just it's so frustrating, and I have given the

627
00:28:03,039 --> 00:28:05,079
advice to other people. I gave it to them. I

628
00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:07,519
think it was against Arizona. I was like, you guys

629
00:28:07,559 --> 00:28:09,359
are all crazy. Then of course they come back, went

630
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:13,000
against UCF. Could they win today, Absolutely, but they're gonna

631
00:28:13,039 --> 00:28:13,920
have to play.

632
00:28:15,319 --> 00:28:18,079
Speaker 3: Preseason case state expectations type football and we just.

633
00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:19,200
Speaker 5: Even the game.

634
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:22,559
Speaker 7: Yeah, even the UF game. They only won that game

635
00:28:22,599 --> 00:28:24,759
because they were plus two turnovers. I mean, you know,

636
00:28:24,839 --> 00:28:26,920
most college football teams are gonna win at home plus

637
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:30,599
two turnovers. So it wasn't even a powerful offensive performance.

638
00:28:30,839 --> 00:28:33,240
It was more them getting handed the game.

639
00:28:33,759 --> 00:28:36,039
Speaker 1: Yep, it was frustrating. Okay, let's go through some of

640
00:28:36,039 --> 00:28:39,279
these other ones. Rob Christiansen, does James Franklin run it

641
00:28:39,359 --> 00:28:41,920
up today at home to help save his job? Ben

642
00:28:42,079 --> 00:28:45,599
State minus twenty one seems light? You guys may remember

643
00:28:46,079 --> 00:28:49,160
VR called Ucla last week on the money line hand up.

644
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:52,400
I had no money on a UCLA money line, like

645
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:56,279
a complete jackass that I am VR or Ralph. When

646
00:28:57,119 --> 00:29:00,759
an upset like that happens, how do teams typically respond?

647
00:29:02,079 --> 00:29:06,119
Speaker 6: Well, you know, you look at James Franklin coming off

648
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:06,880
the Oregon game.

649
00:29:07,039 --> 00:29:09,599
Speaker 7: He's been horrible. He's been horrible off a loss. You

650
00:29:09,599 --> 00:29:12,119
would think he's good. What he is, he's a good bully.

651
00:29:12,359 --> 00:29:15,279
He can he tries to run it up against those opponents.

652
00:29:15,559 --> 00:29:19,440
And here's the thing. If he has a lead, he

653
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:21,759
will continue to run it up. But I cannot bet

654
00:29:21,759 --> 00:29:24,519
on him. Not only did they lose the UCLA this

655
00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:27,559
was not a fake loss. This was a UCLA team

656
00:29:27,559 --> 00:29:29,599
that rushed for two hundred and sixty nine yards and

657
00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:33,160
five point one yards per carry. They were that size favorite,

658
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:35,400
and they were out gained by seventy eight yards. After

659
00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:37,640
getting out gained by one hundred and forty eight yards.

660
00:29:38,119 --> 00:29:40,160
In Northwestern, we have a team that wants to run

661
00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:43,039
the ball. Granted they only played Ulm rushing the ball

662
00:29:43,079 --> 00:29:45,559
for thirty eight times for two forty six, but they

663
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:48,920
rush forty two times against UCLA, thirty seven against Oregon,

664
00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:52,039
and forty one against Western Illinois. I actually like the

665
00:29:52,119 --> 00:29:55,400
under here and I would only bet the Northwestern side.

666
00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:57,839
Speaker 1: All right, Another question here from Rob Christensen. I would

667
00:29:57,839 --> 00:30:00,839
also love to hear and take on arganzas see new

668
00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:05,359
coach angle in play, Ralph. How do teams respond after

669
00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:06,559
they fire their head coach?

670
00:30:07,079 --> 00:30:09,640
Speaker 7: You know, I don't have that in college football. Kel, sorry,

671
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:12,559
but you know this isn't a new head coach. This

672
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:14,720
is a coach who was here fifteen years ago, right,

673
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:19,279
so he has fifteen years experience at this at this school.

674
00:30:19,559 --> 00:30:21,599
You know, this is a game where you look at

675
00:30:21,759 --> 00:30:24,279
you look at Arkansas and you say, well, they only

676
00:30:24,279 --> 00:30:26,640
put up three hundred and sixty five yards against Notre Dame.

677
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:30,720
That's an actually pretty decent amount. The other four games

678
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:33,759
this year they actually had season highs. So when they

679
00:30:33,759 --> 00:30:36,000
went to Mississippi, they had five hundred and twenty six

680
00:30:36,079 --> 00:30:38,920
yards when they went to Memphis, they had five hundred yards.

681
00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:42,759
This offense is still dynamic. We know the Tennessee offense.

682
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:45,599
This total is crazy high, but I actually do.

683
00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:46,119
Speaker 6: Like the over.

684
00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:49,079
Speaker 7: And let's remember this. When we have these totals that

685
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:53,559
approach seventy the bookmakers don't actually have to make the

686
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:55,920
number where it should be. I actually think this total

687
00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:58,599
should be seventy three. But at sixty nine and a

688
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:01,079
half or sixty eight and a half, they're getting equal

689
00:31:01,119 --> 00:31:04,519
money on both sides. So often I do like to

690
00:31:04,559 --> 00:31:06,839
look at high totals and bet over. I do like

691
00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:09,640
taking low totals and betting under. We joked about the

692
00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:12,359
MLB game last night, five and a half. Well, it's

693
00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:14,480
five and a half for a reason. Same thing with

694
00:31:14,559 --> 00:31:19,839
this total being this high, Tennessee's offense top twenty, averaging

695
00:31:19,839 --> 00:31:22,680
more than their opponents to loow. Well, guess what Arkansas

696
00:31:22,799 --> 00:31:25,400
the last three weeks has allowed four seventy five eighty

697
00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:27,359
nine six forty one over for me?

698
00:31:27,799 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, everybody's texting me right now, Kelly, what are the needs?

699
00:31:30,039 --> 00:31:32,039
I'm like, can you guys just not watch the show?

700
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:34,319
So here, I am being a good friend and sitting

701
00:31:34,359 --> 00:31:38,480
out what everybody wants here's a good question. Ralph grew

702
00:31:38,559 --> 00:31:41,480
up an Ohio State fan. I think he's got some

703
00:31:41,519 --> 00:31:44,480
pretty good insight on this team. So jay Rice wants

704
00:31:44,519 --> 00:31:47,640
to know, does Illinois have a chance today. I'm not

705
00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:49,880
gonna lie. I looked at the plus fourteen. I like

706
00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:52,240
this Illinois team. I like Brett Bielam as an underdog.

707
00:31:52,559 --> 00:31:54,799
Do I think they have a shot to win? And

708
00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:57,799
my answer was no, And that is initially why I said, Okay,

709
00:31:57,839 --> 00:31:59,880
I'm not going to use them in my parlay. Then

710
00:32:00,079 --> 00:32:01,839
we kind of went back and forth. Arn't said he

711
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:05,440
would need them today at the Westgates super Book. Tell

712
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:07,480
me your thoughts, resident Ohio State fan.

713
00:32:08,519 --> 00:32:11,559
Speaker 6: Well, I am not going against Ohio State defense.

714
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:14,480
Speaker 7: I mean, when you're number one, they actually you know

715
00:32:14,559 --> 00:32:17,240
you're the number one team, which means you're one spot

716
00:32:17,279 --> 00:32:19,640
better than two. But they would actually be like a

717
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:22,880
negative fifteen. They're probably sixteen spots better than the number

718
00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:26,000
two defense in the country. They've held all five opponents

719
00:32:26,039 --> 00:32:29,680
to a season low. They are averaging holding those opponents

720
00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:32,640
two hundred and twenty yards under what they average. By

721
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:35,960
the way, Illinois is averaging three ninety eight. I think

722
00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:39,160
Illinois knows their only chance is to run the ball

723
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:40,240
against this defense.

724
00:32:40,799 --> 00:32:41,759
Speaker 6: We also have a.

725
00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:44,599
Speaker 7: Freshman quarterback, even though Julian Sayan is not playing like

726
00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:47,559
a freshman quarterback with a thirteen to three ratio and

727
00:32:47,759 --> 00:32:50,960
completing the highest percentage in college football at eighty percent.

728
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:54,400
This is only a second road game, and remember against

729
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:57,559
Washington they were very slow to start, and in fact,

730
00:32:57,599 --> 00:32:59,559
they only had one hundred and thirty eight yards and

731
00:32:59,599 --> 00:33:03,119
seven points at halftime. I actually have a client play

732
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:06,240
on first half under Illinois Ohio State.

733
00:33:06,319 --> 00:33:07,200
Speaker 6: It's yours for free.

734
00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:07,880
Speaker 7: Ooh.

735
00:33:09,039 --> 00:33:12,400
Speaker 1: I like that first half under for Ralph. Last time

736
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:13,640
he came on the show and gave us the first

737
00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:17,200
half under. It was easy pasy. Hopefully we get that

738
00:33:17,319 --> 00:33:20,480
as well today. Here's kind of an obscure one, but

739
00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:23,160
Marco did talk about this game on bet on It

740
00:33:23,599 --> 00:33:27,119
Ralph James Madison eighteen and a half points.

741
00:33:27,599 --> 00:33:29,240
Speaker 3: Russell wants to know if this is too many?

742
00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:32,079
Speaker 6: Well, didn't we just get a best bet on that

743
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:33,119
from Art? You know?

744
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:36,559
Speaker 7: So I don't want to tell people that I like

745
00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:38,759
the other side if they already bet you know, if

746
00:33:38,759 --> 00:33:40,319
they already bet you, well, but.

747
00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:43,839
Speaker 1: Maybe, but maybe you're gonna provide some insight that makes

748
00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:45,559
them have their own decision, right.

749
00:33:45,599 --> 00:33:47,880
Speaker 3: I Art's best bets have been doing well, but so

750
00:33:48,000 --> 00:33:48,519
have Marco.

751
00:33:48,759 --> 00:33:50,880
Speaker 7: So yeah, kind of ass is a game I did

752
00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:53,319
not get involved with. You know, James Madison coming off

753
00:33:53,319 --> 00:33:55,200
a game at Georgia State where they gained two hundred

754
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:58,920
and eighty five yards and Ull finally has their rush

755
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:01,359
attack together there that has to run the ball to

756
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:05,119
be successful under Desormo, their head coach. You know, the

757
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:08,199
last couple of weeks again it is Eastern Michigan and

758
00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:11,360
Marshall where they put a four hundred forty one and

759
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:14,920
four hundred and sixty one yards. I do like ul

760
00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:18,239
as a dog here, but nowhere near a play for me.

761
00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:22,039
Speaker 1: All right, let's see what else we got for questions.

762
00:34:22,079 --> 00:34:24,360
If you guys have a UFC question, drop it in

763
00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:27,960
the chat. Kyle, Anthony's coming up here in about ninety seconds.

764
00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:30,880
We already talked about this one. Let's see what else

765
00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:34,800
we got, Kelly. Does Florida Maryland South Carolina parlay actually

766
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:36,199
have a chance or is it a donation?

767
00:34:36,599 --> 00:34:39,039
Speaker 3: Well, last week's parlay actually.

768
00:34:38,639 --> 00:34:41,000
Speaker 1: Had a chance, and then all three teams blew a

769
00:34:41,039 --> 00:34:43,639
double digit lead. I'm gonna be honest with you, I

770
00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:47,400
don't know. I cannot play the football games for these teams.

771
00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:49,800
It has been a very frustrating season. We'll leave it

772
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:50,079
at that.

773
00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:54,400
Speaker 3: Anything else, let's see what we got here for Ralph

774
00:34:54,639 --> 00:34:57,199
and Ralph, here we go. We'll get this last one.

775
00:34:57,360 --> 00:35:01,679
Speaker 1: Ralph's thoughts on the Arizona EYU game tonight. Keep staring

776
00:35:01,679 --> 00:35:03,000
at the plus two and a half with the home team,

777
00:35:03,039 --> 00:35:05,800
and I'm hoping there's a reason three would be bought

778
00:35:06,199 --> 00:35:09,239
up is offered. All right, let's kind of break down

779
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:11,280
this game. This is a game that I think, well,

780
00:35:11,679 --> 00:35:17,239
is interesting. This is Arizona, who I'll say they've taken

781
00:35:17,239 --> 00:35:19,679
a step forward this year, right, and maybe BYU's taking

782
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:21,800
a small step back. I do think this is a

783
00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:26,280
really pick them type situation. So I didn't get involved, Ralph,

784
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:29,360
what are your thoughts on this big twelve matchup late night?

785
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:32,840
Speaker 7: You know I did not get involved either, Kelly, and

786
00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:37,119
you look at BYU and you know it's We're starting

787
00:35:37,119 --> 00:35:39,480
to get a little bit where the schedule becomes more

788
00:35:39,519 --> 00:35:42,840
and more important. Going to East Carolina getting a win,

789
00:35:43,159 --> 00:35:46,559
going to Colorado eking out a win, coming home against

790
00:35:46,599 --> 00:35:50,679
West Virginia, and now traveling again to Arizona. Arizona at

791
00:35:50,679 --> 00:35:53,159
home again. We are talking one of the weakest schedules

792
00:35:53,159 --> 00:35:56,599
out there. Hawaii, Weaver State, Kansas State. They only win

793
00:35:56,679 --> 00:35:59,639
by six even though they had a two hundred plus

794
00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:04,039
yard edge, lose to Iowa State and lose to Oklahoma State.

795
00:36:04,639 --> 00:36:11,440
To me Arizona State byu even on offenses. The defense

796
00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:13,760
here's where I'm gonna surprise you. I actually give a

797
00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:17,079
slight edge to Arizona with the better defense. They've held

798
00:36:17,119 --> 00:36:20,280
three of their five opponents to a season low. They're

799
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:23,199
allowing eighty eight yards per game and three point zero

800
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:24,920
yards per carry rushing.

801
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:27,239
Speaker 6: I do like the Wildcats at home.

802
00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:31,719
Speaker 3: All right, Wildcats for Ralph. We're gonna get Ralph out

803
00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:32,039
of here.

804
00:36:32,079 --> 00:36:33,960
Speaker 1: But first, Ralph, what do you got going on over

805
00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:35,280
at wager talk dot com.

806
00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:37,679
Speaker 7: Well, guys, you got a few minutes to get the

807
00:36:37,679 --> 00:36:42,199
Weekend Warrior. My college football plays on a twenty seven

808
00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:46,920
and fourteen run sixty six percent, and I have a

809
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:50,039
five percent NFL play on Sunday The Weekend Warrior. Get

810
00:36:50,119 --> 00:36:54,079
you both my NFL teasers twenty five and seven four

811
00:36:54,119 --> 00:36:57,599
percent and five percent teasers sixteen and three. I'm number

812
00:36:57,599 --> 00:37:00,000
one at Wager Talk five percent, the last three hundred

813
00:37:00,079 --> 00:37:04,280
sixty five years football five percent, seventeen and five Weekend

814
00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:07,519
Warrior forty nine bucks. All of my Saturday college football,

815
00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:10,280
all of my Sunday NFL, and if I have Monday

816
00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:13,480
NFL as well, it's yours as a bonus. The Weekend

817
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:15,760
Warrior Kelly has been one of the best specials we've

818
00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:18,920
ever had. It's exploding every weekend. Why wouldn't it? One

819
00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:21,800
last note about it, Guys, do not wait until Saturday

820
00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:22,880
to get the Weekend Warrior.

821
00:37:22,960 --> 00:37:23,920
Speaker 6: If you know who you like.

822
00:37:24,239 --> 00:37:26,559
Speaker 7: Sign up on Tuesday, and as soon as we load

823
00:37:26,599 --> 00:37:29,239
those plays you get the line value that we want

824
00:37:29,280 --> 00:37:32,599
you to get by being a Weekend Warrior customer. Again,

825
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:35,320
wait until Saturday is silly. If there's a if there's

826
00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:36,159
a service.

827
00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:38,360
Speaker 6: That you know you're gonna be following for the weekend.

828
00:37:38,679 --> 00:37:40,800
Speaker 1: All right, Ralph, We're gonna get you out of here

829
00:37:41,559 --> 00:37:42,079
real quick.

830
00:37:42,159 --> 00:37:42,519
Speaker 3: Ladies.

831
00:37:42,519 --> 00:37:45,039
Speaker 1: Guys are not paying attention on social media. The Haughty

832
00:37:45,079 --> 00:37:47,039
Threes in Parlay. It hasn't been called that a long time,

833
00:37:47,039 --> 00:37:49,000
but it does not have a new name. We're looking

834
00:37:49,079 --> 00:37:52,840
at Maryland starts at three thirty Eastern Florida tonight in

835
00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:55,840
South Carolina, Tonight, Ford truck Man, do me a favor,

836
00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:57,840
at least give us the thumbs up, Maybe hit that

837
00:37:57,880 --> 00:37:59,960
subscribe button since you don't want to go to myself

838
00:38:00,000 --> 00:38:01,960
social media and watch that video. All right, let's bring

839
00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:04,519
in Kyle Anthony. We've got a pair of UFC fights.

840
00:38:04,519 --> 00:38:07,599
He's been waiting a long time, so I appreciate his patience.

841
00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:09,960
But the good news is, Kyle, we've got four thousand people.

842
00:38:09,960 --> 00:38:12,679
Now you would have brought on the show, you would

843
00:38:12,679 --> 00:38:15,000
have had the smaller amount of numbers, So you got

844
00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:18,760
four thousand people wanting these UFC picks. Let's kind of

845
00:38:18,760 --> 00:38:22,599
get into some of your thoughts here on this card

846
00:38:22,679 --> 00:38:25,000
as a whole before we break down your two games.

847
00:38:25,559 --> 00:38:28,000
Speaker 8: Yeah, this is a good card here. It's in Rio.

848
00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:31,000
It's gonna start at about four o'clock. It's gonna be

849
00:38:31,039 --> 00:38:35,239
on ESPN. Plus, there's some great fights here, especially if

850
00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:40,440
you want some entertaining crowd. Rio Brazil crowd is absolutely crazy.

851
00:38:40,559 --> 00:38:42,519
They're gonna be going nuts throughout the whole time. Plus,

852
00:38:42,559 --> 00:38:44,880
there's a lot of really good betting opportunities here, So

853
00:38:45,039 --> 00:38:46,840
a lot of spots I do have. I've got five

854
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:50,039
client plays right now. The last two weeks, we've done

855
00:38:50,119 --> 00:38:52,920
very well. Over the last two weeks, we've cashed thirteen units.

856
00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:55,400
So got to keep it rolling. And like I said,

857
00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:58,320
I always I always say this. You know, everyone loves

858
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:01,639
the big numbered cards, but there's eight betting opportunities every

859
00:39:01,679 --> 00:39:04,079
week basically on a Saturday, for fights in UFC.

860
00:39:04,480 --> 00:39:06,840
Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely, listen, I understand because you want to go

861
00:39:06,840 --> 00:39:08,440
to the bar. You're at the bar, you're watching college

862
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:10,159
football late. You got the UFC fights. I mean I

863
00:39:10,159 --> 00:39:12,559
did that whole thing last weekend and it was crazy

864
00:39:12,679 --> 00:39:15,480
to be back and forth having action on one of

865
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:17,960
your fights as well as trying to watch my team's

866
00:39:18,000 --> 00:39:21,760
not imployed by double digits. Let's get into this first

867
00:39:21,760 --> 00:39:26,679
fight here, Joel Alvarez versus Vicini Luke A talk to me,

868
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:30,519
why you like Alvarez by knockout? Yes?

869
00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:33,280
Speaker 5: So, so this one here, it's a wide line.

870
00:39:33,280 --> 00:39:35,599
Speaker 8: You've got Alvarez, he's around minus five to fifty on

871
00:39:35,639 --> 00:39:38,199
the comeback. Here, we do have Vicente Luki have plus

872
00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:40,559
four hundred and definitely going to find a way to

873
00:39:40,920 --> 00:39:43,519
make this a plus money by the knockout, and he's

874
00:39:43,559 --> 00:39:45,519
minus five fifty for all the right reasons here.

875
00:39:45,559 --> 00:39:47,159
Speaker 5: I mean, this guy is an absolute killer.

876
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:50,679
Speaker 8: He's got twenty two victories, all come inside the distance,

877
00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:53,440
a hundred percent finish rate. And the thing about him

878
00:39:53,480 --> 00:39:55,320
is he's good everywhere, you know. I mean he's good

879
00:39:55,360 --> 00:39:57,039
on the ground. He can submit you, he can have

880
00:39:57,079 --> 00:40:00,760
the knockouts. He's really a very tough style, ballistic matchup

881
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:02,679
for a lot of guys in the division. He's got

882
00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:04,800
a big frame. He's very large. But one of the

883
00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:06,679
things here is that Luke used to kind of be

884
00:40:06,760 --> 00:40:08,400
that way. He was a guy that would come forward,

885
00:40:08,599 --> 00:40:10,880
he would throw, he would want a phone booth bite,

886
00:40:10,920 --> 00:40:13,039
you know, take one to give one, keep it close.

887
00:40:13,119 --> 00:40:13,960
Speaker 5: He was durable.

888
00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:17,599
Speaker 8: And then he took an absolute beating against Jeff Neil,

889
00:40:17,639 --> 00:40:20,119
which was a terrible, terrible showing for him. He got

890
00:40:20,199 --> 00:40:25,519
knocked out. Afterwards, he contemplated retirement. He also had brain bleeding.

891
00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:28,920
Wasn't very good situation for him and just didn't really

892
00:40:28,920 --> 00:40:31,039
seem like things were going for him. They did clear

893
00:40:31,119 --> 00:40:33,079
him to come back. He's come back and he has

894
00:40:33,199 --> 00:40:36,719
really looked a shell of himself since returning, and the

895
00:40:36,760 --> 00:40:39,400
thing he's really needed to do is instead of standing

896
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:42,320
striking and kind of leaning on that durability. He's not

897
00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:44,519
leaning on the wrestling. He's kind of trying to protect

898
00:40:44,559 --> 00:40:46,760
the chind a little bit. Now, a lot of opponents,

899
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:48,760
you know, want to you know, look to kind of

900
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:50,199
you know, do that kind of thing and mix it

901
00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:51,679
up a little bit. But the thing here is that

902
00:40:51,760 --> 00:40:54,880
Albarez is so elite on the ground that I think

903
00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:58,719
that threat of how good and how high level jiu

904
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:01,159
jitsu that Albarez has, that he's going to be able

905
00:41:01,199 --> 00:41:02,840
to kind of keep this standing because I don't think

906
00:41:02,880 --> 00:41:04,559
Luka is gonna want to really be going into the

907
00:41:04,599 --> 00:41:07,000
teeth of really what he can do well. And I

908
00:41:07,039 --> 00:41:09,360
know that all you know, most of I should say

909
00:41:10,079 --> 00:41:13,400
Alvarez does have submission victories, but I think this really

910
00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:16,519
primes very well for Luke to get knocked out brutally

911
00:41:16,599 --> 00:41:19,599
in this fight here at this particular point that you know,

912
00:41:19,679 --> 00:41:22,159
Alvarez is the better striker, the harder hitter.

913
00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:24,159
Speaker 5: You know, he's really the guy that's.

914
00:41:24,039 --> 00:41:26,280
Speaker 8: Going to have that aggressive style, that volume he's going

915
00:41:26,320 --> 00:41:28,199
to be able to move forward. And the thing about

916
00:41:28,199 --> 00:41:30,800
it also is that you know, Albarez has all these submissions,

917
00:41:30,800 --> 00:41:33,039
and you would think that he has gone out there

918
00:41:33,079 --> 00:41:35,480
and he's getting a bunch of takedowns. Out of alvarez

919
00:41:35,559 --> 00:41:39,000
is nine UFC fights, he's only shot two takedowns and

920
00:41:39,039 --> 00:41:41,119
he missed both of them. So most of the time,

921
00:41:41,199 --> 00:41:43,719
if he's going to the ground, it's his opponent's choice too,

922
00:41:43,880 --> 00:41:45,719
and it has not worked out well for his opponents.

923
00:41:45,719 --> 00:41:47,800
He's choking them out. So I think this plays out

924
00:41:47,800 --> 00:41:50,880
on the feet. Three of the last five losses for

925
00:41:51,159 --> 00:41:53,800
Luke are inside the distance, while on the other side

926
00:41:53,800 --> 00:41:56,880
here three of the last four where Alvarez are inside

927
00:41:56,920 --> 00:41:59,480
the distance. So I think that he finds this victory

928
00:41:59,559 --> 00:42:01,559
by not out. I think it's going to be brutal,

929
00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:04,199
and I think plus one fifty on Albarez is a

930
00:42:04,199 --> 00:42:06,280
really nice price here on a very likely outcome.

931
00:42:06,559 --> 00:42:08,840
Speaker 1: All right, here's an interesting question. I'm going to add

932
00:42:08,840 --> 00:42:11,480
it one step further, big Sis. Lisa has been going

933
00:42:11,599 --> 00:42:13,480
crazy in the chat this morning, so I'm going to

934
00:42:13,599 --> 00:42:15,880
give her some love. Hi there, Kyle, do you think

935
00:42:16,440 --> 00:42:19,440
that there will be the best fight in Finite two

936
00:42:19,519 --> 00:42:21,840
sixty one? Now I'm going to take it one step further.

937
00:42:22,280 --> 00:42:24,599
A fight that you think is going to be the

938
00:42:24,599 --> 00:42:26,960
best that you didn't bet, maybe you want to bet

939
00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:28,159
like you're like, this is going to be such a

940
00:42:28,159 --> 00:42:28,519
great fight.

941
00:42:28,559 --> 00:42:30,440
Speaker 3: I want to get involved, but there's no value.

942
00:42:30,920 --> 00:42:32,840
Speaker 8: And so there's been a lot of those, I mean

943
00:42:32,880 --> 00:42:35,400
because and it's even even to last week's point.

944
00:42:35,440 --> 00:42:37,639
Speaker 5: You know, last week it was you know, Alex Pereira.

945
00:42:37,840 --> 00:42:40,000
Speaker 8: You know, it was such a spot where you know,

946
00:42:40,519 --> 00:42:43,639
there was so much down talk about the guy about hey,

947
00:42:43,679 --> 00:42:44,559
he broke his hand?

948
00:42:44,639 --> 00:42:46,719
Speaker 5: Did he break his hand? Do you believe it?

949
00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:49,559
Speaker 8: And you know, Perera is one of my most I

950
00:42:49,559 --> 00:42:52,039
would say my most profitable fighters.

951
00:42:51,639 --> 00:42:52,360
Speaker 5: That I have backed.

952
00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:55,079
Speaker 8: You know, I have been max betting him throughout pretty

953
00:42:55,119 --> 00:42:57,079
much his run. He has done very well with that.

954
00:42:57,360 --> 00:42:58,920
And then it was almost like last week it was

955
00:42:58,920 --> 00:43:00,760
almost like am I over thanking it? But is the

956
00:43:00,800 --> 00:43:02,119
line throwing me off a little bit?

957
00:43:02,119 --> 00:43:02,400
Speaker 2: There?

958
00:43:02,519 --> 00:43:04,519
Speaker 8: But that was the spot there, right, I had a

959
00:43:04,559 --> 00:43:06,960
ton of value on a guy at plus two thirty

960
00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:10,039
got the knockout quickly. I did bet on that. But

961
00:43:10,079 --> 00:43:11,920
as in something that I have not bet on top

962
00:43:11,920 --> 00:43:13,679
of my head, you know, I don't really have anything

963
00:43:13,719 --> 00:43:16,079
particular to uh, you know, to throw out there.

964
00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:19,280
Speaker 1: All right, let's go over this next fight here. We've

965
00:43:19,320 --> 00:43:26,679
got Clayton Carpenter versus Feli feel thank oh gosh.

966
00:43:26,800 --> 00:43:28,840
Speaker 5: I was writing it in flack. I was like, I

967
00:43:28,840 --> 00:43:29,880
can't wait for her say this.

968
00:43:30,360 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 1: You guys, if you've never seen the video of me

969
00:43:33,079 --> 00:43:36,920
at the Westgate super Book pronouncing fighters, I I don't think.

970
00:43:37,639 --> 00:43:39,079
Speaker 3: Actually it's very that's great.

971
00:43:40,199 --> 00:43:43,039
Speaker 8: H so uh so we've got Clayon Carpenter here versus

972
00:43:43,039 --> 00:43:45,320
of Philo, and now you've got Filo. Now, this line

973
00:43:45,360 --> 00:43:48,599
did flip last night. It was basically the other way.

974
00:43:48,599 --> 00:43:50,760
You had a short favorite for Carpenter and now it's

975
00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:53,079
flipped over to me as a short dog now and

976
00:43:53,320 --> 00:43:54,199
you got Feelo that.

977
00:43:54,320 --> 00:43:55,159
Speaker 5: You know, this guy is.

978
00:43:55,119 --> 00:43:58,639
Speaker 8: A very aggressive presser rappler. He wants to come forward,

979
00:43:58,639 --> 00:44:00,679
he's gonna crash the pocket. You know, he's going to

980
00:44:00,719 --> 00:44:02,440
look to get the takedowns and he's not going to

981
00:44:02,559 --> 00:44:04,079
really look to strike too much. And if he does

982
00:44:04,119 --> 00:44:06,559
look to strike, you know, it's pretty much just cutting

983
00:44:06,559 --> 00:44:09,039
distance to get his hands on it to get these takedowns.

984
00:44:09,119 --> 00:44:10,920
Speaker 5: He's got very good back takes and there are some

985
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:11,880
things that he does well.

986
00:44:11,880 --> 00:44:13,800
Speaker 8: One of the biggest issues here is that Yefie the

987
00:44:13,920 --> 00:44:18,519
elite level grappler, but he is extremely extremely low volume

988
00:44:18,559 --> 00:44:21,559
striker and that has hurt him multiple times throughout his career.

989
00:44:21,599 --> 00:44:24,679
And you know, he lands less than two significant strikes

990
00:44:24,719 --> 00:44:26,719
per mint. If that is off the charts low, that

991
00:44:26,840 --> 00:44:29,280
is absurdly low and out of his course. It's a

992
00:44:29,280 --> 00:44:31,840
little bit smaller of a sample size only four fights,

993
00:44:32,039 --> 00:44:34,480
but the two fights that went three rounds, he landed

994
00:44:34,559 --> 00:44:37,760
nine significant strikes in fourteen. So it's just really no

995
00:44:37,880 --> 00:44:40,280
process to his striking. He doesn't really have too much

996
00:44:40,320 --> 00:44:42,880
power on the feet as well, and he's really leaning

997
00:44:42,920 --> 00:44:44,920
on I need to get these takedowns. I need to

998
00:44:44,920 --> 00:44:47,280
find that control time and that's you know, ground and

999
00:44:47,360 --> 00:44:49,920
pounds submissions. That's really where he's looking to do because

1000
00:44:49,960 --> 00:44:52,840
the striking is wild, it's basic. While I do think

1001
00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:55,280
that Carpenter here, you know what he offers, and I

1002
00:44:55,280 --> 00:44:57,960
think something that's the biggest thing that will counter some

1003
00:44:58,039 --> 00:44:59,920
stuff that he does do is going to be the rest.

1004
00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:02,519
And he does have a good wrestling background. If he

1005
00:45:02,559 --> 00:45:05,039
can counter some of those takedowns that Filo is gonna

1006
00:45:05,079 --> 00:45:06,719
be shooting, he's gonna be able to keep it on

1007
00:45:06,760 --> 00:45:08,800
the feet when he needs to, even if it goes

1008
00:45:08,840 --> 00:45:11,400
to the ground. I do believe that Carpenter has shown

1009
00:45:11,440 --> 00:45:14,039
some scrambling ability, get up ability. He's gonna be the

1010
00:45:14,039 --> 00:45:17,239
better athlete between these two guys. And another big aspect

1011
00:45:17,280 --> 00:45:20,440
here is that I think there's a wide gap that's

1012
00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:23,480
gonna be favoring Carpenter and Cardio. And you know Jafiel,

1013
00:45:23,599 --> 00:45:25,920
you know early you're gonna see him in this first round.

1014
00:45:25,920 --> 00:45:27,760
He's probably gonna just run across the cage and try

1015
00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:30,159
to look for takedown and that can work in certain spots.

1016
00:45:30,159 --> 00:45:32,159
But I think again, a guy that can really nullify

1017
00:45:32,440 --> 00:45:35,360
some of those wrestling aspects I think allows Carpenter to

1018
00:45:35,360 --> 00:45:37,559
find success. And then if anytime this plays out on

1019
00:45:37,639 --> 00:45:40,800
the feet, Carpenter has a massive advantage on the feet.

1020
00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:44,360
He's a far better striker chrisper combinations, he's the better boxer.

1021
00:45:44,400 --> 00:45:45,800
Speaker 5: He was a former.

1022
00:45:45,519 --> 00:45:48,599
Speaker 8: Golden Gloves champion, and I think he's just more technical

1023
00:45:48,639 --> 00:45:51,519
in any of those situations. I think he finds a

1024
00:45:51,559 --> 00:45:54,480
lot of success on the feet. Again, Fiello, the Cardio's

1025
00:45:54,519 --> 00:45:56,440
not there, but he's very good on top. If he

1026
00:45:56,480 --> 00:45:59,000
can get those takedowns. You know, Fiel can be dangerous,

1027
00:45:59,079 --> 00:46:01,480
But anytime he's been on his back, he has just

1028
00:46:01,559 --> 00:46:03,400
not been able to get up. He has struggled, and

1029
00:46:03,440 --> 00:46:06,719
I think that opens up an opportunity or carpenter to

1030
00:46:06,760 --> 00:46:09,000
look for some takedowns and be offensive with his wrestling,

1031
00:46:09,039 --> 00:46:11,440
not just worrying about the takedowns himself, looking for some

1032
00:46:11,480 --> 00:46:13,719
of those takedowns on his side here. So you're getting

1033
00:46:13,760 --> 00:46:16,400
him now at at around plus one one oh eight.

1034
00:46:16,679 --> 00:46:19,400
There's some like plus one tens one fifteen's out there.

1035
00:46:19,440 --> 00:46:20,400
Speaker 5: So I like that.

1036
00:46:20,719 --> 00:46:22,360
Speaker 8: I mean, plus money's good money, and I think that

1037
00:46:22,400 --> 00:46:23,440
he gets a job done today.

1038
00:46:23,840 --> 00:46:27,199
Speaker 1: Plus money is good money, and so is the hero parlay.

1039
00:46:27,239 --> 00:46:30,199
I'm guessing what is asking about? You know, I told

1040
00:46:30,239 --> 00:46:31,119
these guys, I said, you need to.

1041
00:46:31,119 --> 00:46:31,960
Speaker 3: Go to my social media.

1042
00:46:32,000 --> 00:46:34,679
Speaker 1: I work really hard, but you know, it's a couple

1043
00:46:34,679 --> 00:46:37,400
of kickoff. I'm feeling generous today. Do you want to

1044
00:46:37,440 --> 00:46:39,440
give out your hero parlayor at least tell people where

1045
00:46:39,440 --> 00:46:40,000
they can watch it.

1046
00:46:40,519 --> 00:46:42,920
Speaker 8: Yeah, So I'm going to be posting that probably after this,

1047
00:46:43,000 --> 00:46:44,079
probably in the next half hour.

1048
00:46:44,280 --> 00:46:46,920
Speaker 5: So it's three plays now. Listen. I know a lot

1049
00:46:46,960 --> 00:46:48,119
of people get crazy here.

1050
00:46:48,400 --> 00:46:50,039
Speaker 8: They think, you know, they want to put like a

1051
00:46:50,039 --> 00:46:52,559
bunch of units on this, and they you know, and there.

1052
00:46:52,679 --> 00:46:55,320
This is the reason I called a hero parlay is

1053
00:46:55,360 --> 00:46:57,840
because we're going to be heroes if we hit this parlay.

1054
00:46:58,079 --> 00:47:00,400
It's not an easy thing to hit its plays either.

1055
00:47:00,719 --> 00:47:02,800
I've kind of edged out that I'm not looking to

1056
00:47:02,840 --> 00:47:05,440
bet straight or maybe some of them that that I are.

1057
00:47:05,559 --> 00:47:08,239
Sometimes I'm mixing it together. But that's where you're gonna

1058
00:47:08,280 --> 00:47:11,440
find it. At my Twitter at Kyle Anthony UFC. You

1059
00:47:11,480 --> 00:47:13,039
can check it out in about a half hour.

1060
00:47:13,440 --> 00:47:16,960
Speaker 1: All right, it's not out yet. Everybody's gotta wait. Sorry, mate,

1061
00:47:17,079 --> 00:47:18,559
I was trying to like, get.

1062
00:47:18,400 --> 00:47:20,440
Speaker 5: You check it out, check it out?

1063
00:47:20,880 --> 00:47:21,400
Speaker 3: Can you give me?

1064
00:47:21,440 --> 00:47:23,079
Speaker 1: Can you give me one of the legs? How about

1065
00:47:23,079 --> 00:47:25,960
give me the longest leg? Give me like something exciting here, Kyle?

1066
00:47:26,000 --> 00:47:28,039
Speaker 8: That is like, if this is well, I can I

1067
00:47:28,039 --> 00:47:31,320
would say probably the the one that I could say

1068
00:47:31,320 --> 00:47:33,480
that it's the main event. I could say that it's

1069
00:47:33,519 --> 00:47:36,239
going to be my my, my, my.

1070
00:47:36,320 --> 00:47:37,199
Speaker 5: Actual top one.

1071
00:47:37,239 --> 00:47:37,440
Speaker 2: There.

1072
00:47:37,519 --> 00:47:40,760
Speaker 5: It's gonna be Charles Alavera. I do like him there.

1073
00:47:40,880 --> 00:47:42,599
I think this is a great spot for him.

1074
00:47:42,679 --> 00:47:45,639
Speaker 8: It's a two week notice for Gamera, coming in on

1075
00:47:45,760 --> 00:47:48,679
short notice in Brazil to a five rounder.

1076
00:47:48,800 --> 00:47:50,599
Speaker 5: I like Charles, so that's gonna be one leg of

1077
00:47:50,639 --> 00:47:51,800
the hero parlagh.

1078
00:47:51,920 --> 00:47:53,079
Speaker 3: I love that this.

1079
00:47:52,960 --> 00:47:55,480
Speaker 1: Is gonna be awesome. I can't wait to watch that

1080
00:47:55,519 --> 00:47:58,920
fight here and just a little bit, Kyle, let everybody

1081
00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:00,960
know what else you've not going on over at wager

1082
00:48:01,000 --> 00:48:02,559
talk dot com before we get out of here, because

1083
00:48:02,639 --> 00:48:03,800
kickoff is in twelve minutes.

1084
00:48:04,559 --> 00:48:07,440
Speaker 5: All right, So I have five plays up right now.

1085
00:48:07,519 --> 00:48:10,159
Speaker 8: I have a four percent money line play have hit

1086
00:48:10,400 --> 00:48:12,840
over the last two years seventy two on those four

1087
00:48:12,880 --> 00:48:16,360
percent plays, and I've got some plus money in there.

1088
00:48:16,519 --> 00:48:19,559
Got some great spots we're gonna cash again. Thirteen units

1089
00:48:19,599 --> 00:48:21,519
over the last two events. We're gonna make it like

1090
00:48:21,559 --> 00:48:22,760
twenty over the next three.

1091
00:48:24,719 --> 00:48:24,760
Speaker 2: That.

1092
00:48:25,000 --> 00:48:26,920
Speaker 3: Don't mind me, guys, I'm just betting. In the background.

1093
00:48:26,920 --> 00:48:28,360
I'm just changing some of my splash.

1094
00:48:29,440 --> 00:48:30,800
Speaker 5: It's good, it's good. You got a fire.

1095
00:48:30,960 --> 00:48:33,320
Speaker 3: This is the time listen, and then we got stuff

1096
00:48:33,360 --> 00:48:34,760
going on. This is what this call. This is what

1097
00:48:34,880 --> 00:48:36,079
last call is. It is last call.

1098
00:48:36,119 --> 00:48:38,679
Speaker 1: We gotta get those vestin. We gotta get ready for UFC.

1099
00:48:39,000 --> 00:48:41,039
Let's have an awesome Saturday. Make sure you guys are

1100
00:48:41,039 --> 00:48:44,639
giving Kyle a follow at Kyle Anthony UFC. That hero

1101
00:48:44,800 --> 00:48:46,519
parlay will be up on his Twitter here in a

1102
00:48:46,519 --> 00:48:48,000
little bit. I'll be sure to retweet it for you

1103
00:48:48,000 --> 00:48:50,920
guys as well. Thank you, Kyle, and we'll see you

1104
00:48:50,920 --> 00:48:53,480
next Saturday. We're gonna keep the UFC rolling here. It

1105
00:48:53,480 --> 00:48:55,800
seems like you guys are really enjoying it. Almost forty

1106
00:48:55,800 --> 00:48:58,440
four hundred of you guys watching live right now. Make

1107
00:48:58,440 --> 00:49:00,840
sure you guys come back tomorrow, same time, same place.

1108
00:49:00,920 --> 00:49:04,400
Ariel Epstein is going to be hosting. We've got John

1109
00:49:04,440 --> 00:49:06,119
Murray for a look behind the counter at the West Gates.

1110
00:49:06,519 --> 00:49:08,880
We've got VR and I gotta figure out who else

1111
00:49:09,000 --> 00:49:10,760
is gonna be on the show. Oh, I got it already.

1112
00:49:10,800 --> 00:49:12,760
I looked at the schedule. Jesse Schule is gonna be

1113
00:49:12,760 --> 00:49:16,559
talking from all NFL things from wager Talk dot com.

1114
00:49:16,559 --> 00:49:18,920
So sur seted lineup, and then right after we got

1115
00:49:18,960 --> 00:49:21,199
the steam room. Then after that we got End Zone

1116
00:49:21,239 --> 00:49:23,880
Live with the pres good thing. I got those vivas

1117
00:49:23,880 --> 00:49:27,599
on ice from Ralph. We'll see you guys next Saturday

1118
00:49:28,239 --> 00:49:30,840
right here on wager Talk Last Call. Have a good one.