Speaker 1: Hey, Happy Saturday morning, Kelly and Vegas. Here, this is
Wager Talks Last Call. We got to start set the
lineup for you this morning. Art to Caesar is back
from the Westgate Superbook, which means we're gonna get all
the sharp information behind the counter. Yanni the Greek's gonna
give us from the other side all the stuff that
he saw groups play what he's seeing in the back
end of his accounts. Ralph Michaels is gonna take all
of your college football questions. And of course we have
a UFC match tonight, So Kyle Anthony's going to join
the show. If you guys have a question, drop it
in the chat. That's how this show works. I want
to get ready start watching football. So I am here
solely for you, and if you're not asking questions, I'm
getting out of here because I want to make some
of these last minute bets. Let's bring in Art to
Caesar from the Westgate super Book. I know he is
super busy this morning, as he always is over there
behind the counter. Art Welcome in. I finally got to
catch an episode of the best betting show ever. I'm
so sorry you subject yourself to that every single day
of the week with the press. But if you guys
have kind of chance to check it out, it is
absolutely hilarious. It's a great show, great information.
Speaker 2: Well I'll say this, I actually take Mondays off because
that's a mental health day for me after you know,
doing the show with them all week, So Monday, I
need a day to myself, you know, and away we go.
Speaker 3: I love that for you. I wish I got one
of those.
Speaker 1: I'm going to be joining the pres on end Zone
Live tomorrow watching the games, and I'm already like, all right,
what is going to be my drink of choice here?
Because last time President I were on the same side
was the Eagles. They were getting obliterated and the next thing,
you know, chaos ensued. It ended up being a really
fun time. All right, let's get into kind of what
we got on this beautiful college football say, A lot
of really great games today.
Speaker 3: Obviously, we've got the Red.
Speaker 1: River Shootout or Rivalry or whatever the heck it's called
now they're in the Cotton Bowl. We've got a pair
of really nice SEC games and a couple of those
under the radar SEC games. But first I want you
to kind of rattle off what you guys are seeing
early action here for this Saturday morning.
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's just start early early kickoffs. Charlotte atte Army,
you saw a lot of early Army money. They laid
seventeen and a half. They laid eighteen and a half
up to nineteen and a half on that game Pitt
and FSU very interesting. They took Pitt at eleven, they
laid ten. With Florida State, we've kind of settled back
in the middle there at ten and a half, so
we've seen two groups on both sides of that game.
Ucla at Michigan State. Early it was really one way
traffic on UCLA eight and a half seven and a half.
We were at Michigan State seven this morning, and then
we saw some money coming there and moved us back
to seven and a half. Interesting on that we don't
talk a lot of totals, but the total really got
bet down on that game fifty four and a half
all the way to fifty two. So keep that in mind.
Bama Missouri is a game where they're just gonna basically
go three to three and a half the whole day.
That's what they're gonna do. There are a lot of
three minus twenties out there. We don't like to do
that for the most part, but if we have to,
we will be sharp. Money on Missouri was at three
and a half. Ohio State saw money when it got
to fourteen, but the early money was on Illinois. So
you know, listen, we'll probably need Illinois in the game
regardless because you know Ohio State will be a sweetener
for everyone's money line parlays. That's just how it goes.
Speaker 1: Kind of go into the madness behind that, because I
think a lot of times when I text people, oh,
here are the Westgate needs, they don't really understand it. Right,
You've got sharp money coming in early in the week,
you've got recreational money coming in, you've got house players
being thrown into the mix, and all of those.
Speaker 3: Factors tend to come up with what you need. Now.
Speaker 1: John Murray makes it easy on Monday nights, He's like, hey,
we need the Giants to win out right, But Saturday,
because there's so many games, there's so many moneyline parlays.
Speaker 3: There's people that tease college football.
Speaker 1: We're not even going to get into that, but a
lot of kind of crazy things that start to happen.
Speaker 3: The needs are a little bit.
Speaker 2: Different absolutely, talking about teasing college football or one of
our best house players thirty thousand dollars teas morning with
Old Miss and Ohio State six point teaser. Why yeah,
I mean Ohio Old Miss minus twenty six now in
a teaser. So it does happen. Obviously, it's not as
prevalent with the teasers as is the NFL because of
the key numbers. But you're right that early week action too.
A lot of the times a game could get faked.
You know, it could be they're taking four, they're taking
three and a half, they want to get it under
that field goal so then they can really plow minus
two and a half. So that happens a lot too.
You gotta be a little bit weary of those early
you know, week moves because also to the limits they're
you know, they're not as big. Obviously on a Saturday,
we're at full limits. So always keep that in mind.
Speaker 1: What are full limits there at the Westgates super But
for if somebody wanted to come in with a briefcase
full of cash, what can I really get down over
the counter.
Speaker 3: I know the app limits are going to be a
little different.
Speaker 2: Of course, Apple limits are always different. We always try
to extend people over the counter. I mean, if you're
going to come in a college football game over the
counter and we don't know you and it's like a
first time bet, you know, you could definitely get ten
times on a game, you know, just the regular game.
Now if it's a bigger, high profile game, some games
where we designate this is a bigger game, I don't
see why you couldn't get twenty. I mean, you know,
obviously we always want to establish new players and establish
kind of what's going on with that player, and we
evaluate as we go through the process.
Speaker 1: Well, and I think also Saturday morning too, if you
need the other side, you're the side they want to bet,
maybe you're gonna take a little bit more, take a
little bit less.
Speaker 3: All right, let's kind.
Speaker 1: Of go over some of more of these games here
Johnny Detroit in the comment section. Of course, he's asking
about Michigan USC. I think the initial reaction, at least
for myself, is whenever I see a ranked team catching points,
I'm going, oh, boys, is.
Speaker 3: This gonna be the square dog here?
Speaker 1: But John Murray told me on Kelly and Murray this
week that they saw early money on Michigan.
Speaker 2: We did now when that was the game of the year,
that was a pick, and then we reopened usc minus three.
We did see Michigan money at three. We saw Michigan
money on the money line there. We've kind of been
going back and forth. That's one too, where we go
to two and a half, they lay two and a
half when we go to three. So that's been a
real back and forth game some kind of the twelve
thirty states. This is one where I thought it was
a fake. Early in the week they took Colorado at
four and three and a half and three in Iowa
State was two and a half, and I was waiting
and waiting and waiting, when's the big Iowa State money
gonna come. It came a little bit and we moved
back to three, but it wasn't as prevalent as I thought.
That really wasn't a fake. The sharps really are on Colorado.
Arkansas took a lot of money. Twelve and a half,
eleven and a half. Tennessee now minus ten at home
Tennessee is going to be a need for us. I
know a game that you have talked about Nebraska and Maryland.
That's another one. Two way action. They lay six and
a half in Nebraska, they take seven with Maryland. So
been really going back and forth with that. We need
your team today, Kelly, K State so much TCU mone Sorry,
I know we need k State in that game. A
lot of TCU money. TCU now up to a two
point favorite. Indiana and Oregon. This was a game of
the year and it was Oregon minus fourteen. So I mean,
obviously Indiana has been kind of you know, they've been
repower rated, you know, a little bit higher than normal.
Not that Oregon's been downgraded, but when we reopened this
we were as high as nine. Saw Indiana money there,
and then we saw in Indiana money at seven and
a half. Oregon now minus seven, and then you know
this Red River shootout game because you don't know, I
guess the quarterback's probably gonna play. But this thing's been
going back and forth. We were sitting at pick this morning.
Now we're back to Texas minus one and a half.
We've seen a lot of Texas money all week, so
we really need Oklahoma in the game. Oklahoma's probably within
our top two needs of the day.
Speaker 1: Wow, that is not something I expected to hear that
you were gonna need Oklahoma, especially if John Mattier is
a go I'm gonna go ahead, and guess he probably is.
But I think a lot of people, myself included, are
expect an arch Manning bounce back. Yeah, we'll see how
that one goes. Okay, a couple more questions before we
get you out of here. Another big SEC game, and
John and I talked about this as well, similar to
Alabama Miszoo.
Speaker 3: It's at three three and a half.
Speaker 1: It kind of, I think, is like that fishy line
assuming a lot of people want to take Georgia in
this spot.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know, we saw we were three, and
then we saw Georgia money at three and a half
even and it got us to four on the game.
So you know, the initial flood of money from the
public and the sharps have been on Georgia.
Speaker 3: Interesting. Interesting, interesting. Okay.
Speaker 1: Of course, everybody wants to know your best bet, and
we're gonna get to that in a minute, don't you worry.
Speaker 3: Art is been on fire.
Speaker 1: With those best be's kind of give me anything else
you've got for the rest of the Saturday slate.
Speaker 3: In terms of what you guys are.
Speaker 2: Going to be rooting for yeah, sure, some of the
late stuff. We saw Clemson money in minus thirteen, minus
thirteen and a half up to fourteen against bc BC
looked like they had never played offense last week, and
they're now back on Clemson. The Arizona State Utah game
is a shame now because they are on a state quarterback.
It's just basically dead. He's not gonna play. So you
got Utah up to ten now. People took under forty
nine early in the week on that we're now forty
half four.
Speaker 1: I played the stale line because you know you're yep,
you get stale numbers sometimes. I was back and forth
on USC. I was looking at YouTube. I was like,
you know what, let me just play the stale number
on Utah. Ten is shocking. I'm all this close now
to firing back on Arizona State and just hoping for
a nice What are we talking four and a half
point middle?
Speaker 2: Oh? Absolutely, I mean that thing was four and a
half when we reopened. It got the five pretty quickly.
The total's gone down five points, so really crazy move there,
and it ruins what's a really good late night game,
best late night game of the week. Produce a lot
of money at plus nine and a half, plus eight
and a half Minnesota now seven point favorite at home.
San Diego State saw initial money at six and a half,
got all the way up to seven and a half,
and then we saw the buy back on Nevada at
seven and a half. That's always a theme when you're
at that touchdown, you see lay it under it and
you see him take it over that. That's always a
big thing. And here's another under the radar game, sharp
money on Rice at plus eleven and a half, Uts
now minus ten at home.
Speaker 1: All right, a couple more questions before we get you
out of here. Jojo wants to know same thing I
want to know. Let's talk about Florida A and M.
Speaker 3: Here.
Speaker 1: Florida off that upset over Texas last week. A and
M's offense looks to be rolling. I think this is
a case for the better defense plus the points. What
are you seeing on your end?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's pretty good two way. But I
would say the initial flood of money did come in
on Florida, so I would say A and M probably
a small need.
Speaker 3: Okay, A and M small need.
Speaker 1: Any Nick wants to know what are the heaviest public
bets for today.
Speaker 2: Oh that's interesting. I would say your heavy public bets
are probably Michigan State and Alabama. Okay, I would say
those are two pretty good heavy public things. I mean,
Oregon's going to be pretty public. They're going to be
popular in the moneyline parlay today. People you know who
really don't watch college football week in and week I'll
probably have no respect for Indiana. Not saying I love Indiana,
but I think Oregon will be very much a public
team today.
Speaker 3: All right, we're gonna get you out of here. I
know you are busy.
Speaker 1: He did say that early money did come on Pitt.
Then they came back and played Fsu Preston. If you
missed that one, let's get your best bet.
Speaker 3: And get you onto Monday so you can get that
day off.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I did it. I'm gonna take an ugly one.
I'm gonna take UL Lafayette plus eighteen and a half
against James Madison. It's a small total as far as
college football. It's in the low forties. I'm almost getting
three touchdowns. I think they can keep it within that.
Speaker 1: A game that I didn't think I was gonna want
to watch today, but here we go. Caesar at Art
Dice twenty one on social media.
Speaker 3: Make sure you guys are giving him a follow.
Speaker 1: You can also check him out on the Best Betting
Show Ever with Joe Ranieri and the Press right here
on the wager Talk YouTube channel. Thank you Art, and
do not forget guys, reduced juice. They're at the Westgate
super Book, Primetime Games Game Day and of course Sundays
you're getting minus want to wait on NFL sides, which
is just absolutely amazing. We're gonna bring in VR right now.
He's gonna give us the other look behind the counter,
the look from the sharp side.
Speaker 3: VR, welcome in. I know you've been waiting the wings.
Speaker 1: Anything to comment on basically what Art had to say,
any conflicting information, anything you agree with?
Speaker 4: No, real quickly, he just confirmed Louisiana Lafayette for me.
Speaker 3: I love him.
Speaker 1: That's great, all right, Louisiana Lafayette. Be right back.
Speaker 3: Me and VR are just gonna start live betting mid.
Speaker 4: Showing that that's exactly what I'm doing right now.
Speaker 3: I love that.
Speaker 1: We're both just gonna do it while you guys generate
some questions here. We're gonna get our bets in VR.
What's the rotation number there so I can do this quickly.
Speaker 4: Louisiana Lafayette is Yeah.
Speaker 3: Plus eighteen and a half minus one oh five.
Speaker 1: Look at that. What a beauty, VR, what a beauty.
We're gonna join our live bet team bet here on
Wager Talks Last Call. You guys can watch VR with
me every single week on bet on It. We have
absolutely been crushing the barking dogs. He gave out another
huge barking dog this week. We're gonna see how that
plays out. Looks like they're playing a wide receivers quarterback
VR and I was like, oh no, he thinks we're
about in high school.
Speaker 3: Everybody relaxed.
Speaker 1: It is still a ton of points, and it would
not be surprised to see the Cowboys show a little
bit of grit. We'll get to some more of these
college football questions here in just a minute.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna let VR kind of do his thing. You
guys are gonna get.
Speaker 1: A small preview of what you see on the Steam report,
whether it's on bet on It or Sunday mornings before
NFL kickoff.
Speaker 4: Yep, and real quickly, I got it. Guys always asking
why do we fireing five percents in college football. We've
won every single week. We don't have to. The four
percent have been doing good enough, so please stop with
the DMS when we find a big bet, and subscribers,
you see how I'm doing it. You got a four
percent on the side and a two percent on the month,
so we have even more than a five percent bet
out there on two college football today, so we're getting down.
Don't worry about that. Let me give you those two
first quarter bets real quickly because those do really well.
I gave those two subscribers. We bet Virginia Tech Virginia
Tech in the first half, Virginia Tech plus seven and
a half in the first half, don't be afraid to
sprinkle that money line and plus three thirty. I'm just
going to throw that out there also first quarter Ucla
Ucla plus three and a half. Don't be afraid to
sprinkle the plus one eighty as well on the money line.
And finally, Stanford Stanford plus the touchdown, also in the
first quarter. So those are some of those first quarter bets.
Oklahoma Texas no surprise, Texas is now a two to
two and a half point favorite. We did our job,
we thought they were undervalue earlier in the week that
line was about to pick them when I gave them
out to my guys. So hopefully Texas goes out there
and gets it done. I didn't like what Art said.
With all that risk piling up on Texas, I did
not expect that. I thought the sooner money would continue
to come in, but our bets already placed. I know
people like to know what the public's on. I wrote
down the most one sided bets that I see in
the back end public accounts. Mississippi. They're betting Mississippi blindly,
They're betting Ohio State blindly. They're betting Texas Tech blindly,
Alabama and Utah. Those five are the biggest. Mississippi, Ohio State,
Texas Tech, Alabama.
Speaker 5: And Utah.
Speaker 4: Those are straight bets, parlayd teaser in all kinds of combinations,
some of the sharp action. I'll share that with you
if you watched bet on It. We already covered a
couple more key games there that were earlier hit earlier
in the week.
Speaker 5: Here's some more for you.
Speaker 4: One sixty six Colorado plus the four and plus the
three one se Michigan plus the three four Illinois. We
saw Illinois against Ohio State all the way down the
plus fourteen and a half, be careful. I'm starting to
see Public even starting to take those two touchdowns again.
Ohio State was so one sided early that that's one
of the biggest risks for the books. But even with
UH seeing some love on the Illinois side from the
sharp betters. And Purdue Purdue plus ten, Purdue plus nine
as well, also one twenty one you mass, you mass
plus three. That's opposite Public for whatever reason, they're betting
the favorite in that game heavily. And also Toledo. Toledo
got hit two times this morning. They got hit at
eight and a half nine earlier, they got hit again
at nine and a half ten, and I think they're
getting hit again right now. Uh, that's an early game.
And then a total for you under fifty seven fifty
six and a half in Michigan USC. I know we're
all low to board. I have a lot of information here.
It's a busy day of college football, UFC, baseball, NFL tomorrow.
But it's all organized. Then we're ready to do some damage.
Speaker 3: They really are. You guys have never seen VR's notes.
He is very organized.
Speaker 1: Even though he and are a little all over the place.
We are very organized human beings. You guys don't want
to see my note sheet this morning. It is h
it is wild.
Speaker 3: Okay.
Speaker 1: A couple of questions here from the chat where I
get you out of here, Raw Dog twelve, we'll get
back to those. Rod Dog twelve wants to know his
first quarter Stanford is six and a half. So this
does happen a lot vr a lot.
Speaker 3: You guys are moving it.
Speaker 1: No other book makers are moving it, and unfortunately when
you're getting the secondhand information, sometimes you're getting the worst
of the number. So that's kind of my thought process
here is, hey, what do we do?
Speaker 4: Here's how I'm okay kel not. Then here's how I
deal with it. And I tell guys in the steam
room all the time so they don't bother customer service.
Number one, I give out enough volume that no subscribers
forced to take bad numbers just to have action. More importantly,
what number is it? Is it a key number like
seven or three. If that's the case, then you have
two options. You pass completely or you limit your risk.
If I have a four percent at plus seven and
you still like the side, but you have six and
a half, maybe drop it down to a three percent,
a two percent. Just limit your risk. The less value
you have, the smaller your bet should be. The more
value you have, the bigger your bet should be. So
when there's times that I send out a plus seven
and your guy has seven and a half, you bet
a little bit more because you're getting a better number.
If you're getting a worse number, you bet a little
bit less, or you pass. It really is that simple,
and I know it's frustrating, but I go through it
all day.
Speaker 6: Every day I'm betting for these groups.
Speaker 4: And then I have to get my own money down.
I have to make that same decision you guys are making.
Do I take a half point worse? Do I take
a point worse? Because there are times it doesn't matter,
like you're still getting the best of it, But there's
time that's not the case not to go long. But individually,
you have to decide on your own, like what's your
risk tolerance. But I always tell subscribers, with enough volume,
you never have to take bad numbers, like that's that's
the key. We have more than enough bets that you
could get down good bets. You don't have to chase
bad numbers. That's my advice.
Speaker 1: Okay, very good advice from VR. All right, VR, really quickly,
we're gonna get to a couple more questions before we
get you out of here. What do you have going
on right now at wager talk dot com?
Speaker 5: Two? What a weekend?
Speaker 4: I have my Saturday College Football up. Every play in
that is a four percent play in there in the
daily package. Subscribers also get the threes the twos. I
have my UFC package. UFC goes off early today. I
hit my five percent last week in the UFC. I
have another five percent today in the UFC. I have
Sunday NFL with my first in a while. It's been
weeks since we fired an NFL five percent. Don't wait
on that because I have the game over there in
Europe on there that goes off at three point thirty
am Eastern time. So that package will come down by
morning when you wake up, and that five percent's in there.
You don't want to miss it. So busy weekend, and
we'll have the steam room heading into kickoff tomorrow.
Speaker 3: All right?
Speaker 1: Tell everybody what to expect of the steamer room. Who
is invited to the steam room this week?
Speaker 6: All right?
Speaker 4: It's subscribers that are a month or more, you guys
are going to be able to come in there that
final hour leading up the kickoff. We're going to go
through every game as quickly as possible so I could
share side total, any props I have. We're going to
go over year to date results and what the goal
is through the end of the year, are bet sizing
how we manage our risk, and then I'm there to
answer any question you have on individual games. And finally
about fifteen minutes for kickoff will wrap up those teasers
that are nine and three so far this year.
Speaker 1: All right, if you are a couple of questions really quickly,
I was teasing you about the Oklahoma State thing, and
those are kind of sometimes the casualties of.
Speaker 3: What we do.
Speaker 1: If you took the place with Arizona State and then
they announced Sam Levit's going to be out quarterback uh
Andrey for Oklahoma State. Now a guy who played quarterback
in high school will be starting, so obviously a significant
line move. Do you still like the spot for Oklahoma
State or is at this point in time you're just like,
all right, I got the worst of it, not only
number wise, but information wise. What do you recommend people
do here?
Speaker 4: Yeah, personally, I just let it go kel. I don't
try to find ways to get off the bet when
something like that happens, because I already got down the
way that I get passed it. Mentally is I know
that in the majority of my bets, if not seven
out of ten or greater, I will get the best
of it. But there are going to be those times
when you try to get out ahead of the market
that information comes out later that goes against you. You
just gotta swallow that. You gotta eat it, roll the dice,
and hope you get lucky. Now, I have a bad
bet on Oklahoma State at plus fourteen and a half
open to be the product of good luck. I wouldn't
chase after it by betting it now at a bigger number.
If you didn't bet it yet, I probably would because
I think the adjustment's a little bit too significant. But
that's how I approach it. Once the BET's placed, it's placed,
we move on and more times than not again, as
long as we're getting the best of the number more
times than not, that's what we're going to keep trying
to do. Get out ahead of the market.
Speaker 1: Do you guys. For example, like I said to Art
in the super Conness College, I took the stale number
with Utah with some of my partners, two of them
out of the six set it.
Speaker 3: Let's do it.
Speaker 1: Do you think it's smart to try to come back
and middle if you will on Arizona State now at
this point in time, or is that just kind of like, hey,
you know what, you got the best of the information,
you got the best of the number.
Speaker 3: Let it go.
Speaker 4: If I like you talk kill, then I let I
keep it because I have a bet that I like
at a great number. If I just bet it because
I thought i'd get a great bet in and I'm
getting out ahead of the market with the total drop
in the way it has, I'd probably look to middle
this game because it's more highly probable that I could
hit that middle. Otherwise, like you said, I know, I
got a good bet in my pocket, so I let
it go if I have an opinion on that side.
If I don't have an opinion, then I'm just going
to lock in some profit if possible, and I'll work
that middle.
Speaker 7: All right.
Speaker 1: Great, great advice always from the great gambler. You guys
can check him out every single week on wager Talk Today,
beat on it with me. He's always here on Last Call.
He'll be joining Aero Epsceine tomorrow for the NFL edition,
And of course we're gonna give you guys a couple
sneak peaks if you guys are a wager Talk insider,
WT Dot buzz Backslash insiders. This week is for subscribers only,
but we're gonna open that back up to all of
our members here shortly, give you guys, give VR follow
at Greek Underscore, Gambler, don't forget to hit that like
button thumbs up. There's almost three thousand of you guys
watching with us live right now, and we've got about
thirty six minutes still KICKFF. So we're gonna keep role
and we're gonna let VR get out of here because
I know he's got a lot of work ahead of him.
Thank you for always taking the time, VR, And all
of these college football questions that I've now starred, I've
been annoying our producer the whole time. I've been trying
to star all the questions, except I keep adding them
to the show so I can go back and get
an answer for you guys. Ralph Michaels is coming in
to do that for us. I see Kyle Anthony waiting
in the wings. So if you guys have a UFC question,
drop it in the chat and we will get to
that shortly. Ralph Michaels, you look so short compared to
me for once in our lives. There we go.
Speaker 3: I you love to see it.
Speaker 6: Kelly, you said, what is your drink of choice for
pres tomorrow? Is there any options?
Speaker 2: I got mine?
Speaker 1: Mine are probably getting kind of old sitting on the
showf B.
Speaker 3: How much you probably drink those and swap those out?
I love it. You got Viva Handy for the pool later.
Speaker 6: I do want to Kelly.
Speaker 7: While you guys were talking about unranked favorites, I went
to the database, and remember this early in the season,
the ranks are a joke.
Speaker 6: Coaches don't pay attention a guy Lou He's out.
Speaker 7: So this is very interesting and I think it makes
incredible sense unranked favorites.
Speaker 6: I went back to two thousand and seventeen.
Speaker 7: Unranked favorites the first five weeks of the season twenty
nine and seventeen sixty.
Speaker 6: Three percent, So the rankings meet shit.
Speaker 7: People are moving up and down you might be unranked,
but you might be one spot below being ranked. You
might only be one point away, but unranked favorites from
game number seven on thirty five and forty seven thirty
eight percent. Why the rankings mean something. You're into conference games.
You have an established offense and defense statistical profiles. So
don't fall into that trap when you get a couple
of these early favorites winning later in the season.
Speaker 6: It does not work that way, all right.
Speaker 1: I saved all these college football questions about the actual
games themselves, not just the markets and so forth, for
Ralph because Ralph does a weekly college football show called
the Blitz. He Brian Power, Benjamin Steve Merrill's been joining
in here from time to time as well go over
the entire college football card. So if you guys have
not got a chance to check that out on the
Wager Talking YouTube channel, I highly recommend it.
Speaker 3: Ralph knows his college football.
Speaker 1: So we're just gonna start off with this question because
I want to know here we are. I got a
big need from h John Murray, they're gonna need K State.
I got a big need from Art They're gonna need
K State. Ralph, I don't want to bet this Case
Saint team. This team has just drove me nuts all year,
including last weekend when they Absolution won that game in
Waco like I said they would, and then they blew
a double digit lead. What are you thinking about this
Case State team. I've been joking, it's not a joke
because it's real, the Air Lingus Classic.
Speaker 3: Whoever loses it is doomed. They are cursed.
Speaker 1: Ask Nebraska, Ask Florida State. This Case State team's without
Dylan Edwards. Once again, this line is obviously moving in
the direction of TCU, and I kind of don't blame anybody.
Speaker 6: Well, you look at Dylan Edwards. I mean they have
they have.
Speaker 7: Four players that are between one hundred and two hundred
yards rushing, so they really don't have a go to rusher.
Avery Johnson's still the leader. You know, their stat profile
is not as bad as their record. Obviously they're two
and three off the loss at Baylor. But you look
at Kansas State. They played the twenty eighth toughest schedule
and they're number sixty two in yards per play diff.
Speaker 6: And that's usually my go to number.
Speaker 7: Case State has played a weaker schedule and they're only
twelve spots better. I just can't trust Kansas State. And
there's times when you follow a team kell and you
know this. If you just cannot get a read on
Kansas on a team, it's okay not to play them.
Speaker 6: This is the game I threw out early.
Speaker 7: When I go through the stat profile, the situations, my
power ratings numbers, if they cross them off, I throw
them out early. It usually leaves me about twenty games
during the week that I'm studying.
Speaker 6: This is one that I tossed early.
Speaker 7: I'm with you, I cannot bet the purple Kansas State
Wildcats with your money tail.
Speaker 2: No.
Speaker 1: I just it's so frustrating, and I have given the
advice to other people. I gave it to them. I
think it was against Arizona. I was like, you guys
are all crazy. Then of course they come back, went
against UCF. Could they win today, Absolutely, but they're gonna
have to play.
Speaker 3: Preseason case state expectations type football and we just.
Speaker 5: Even the game.
Speaker 7: Yeah, even the UF game. They only won that game
because they were plus two turnovers. I mean, you know,
most college football teams are gonna win at home plus
two turnovers. So it wasn't even a powerful offensive performance.
It was more them getting handed the game.
Speaker 1: Yep, it was frustrating. Okay, let's go through some of
these other ones. Rob Christiansen, does James Franklin run it
up today at home to help save his job? Ben
State minus twenty one seems light? You guys may remember
VR called Ucla last week on the money line hand up.
I had no money on a UCLA money line, like
a complete jackass that I am VR or Ralph. When
an upset like that happens, how do teams typically respond?
Speaker 6: Well, you know, you look at James Franklin coming off
the Oregon game.
Speaker 7: He's been horrible. He's been horrible off a loss. You
would think he's good. What he is, he's a good bully.
He can he tries to run it up against those opponents.
And here's the thing. If he has a lead, he
will continue to run it up. But I cannot bet
on him. Not only did they lose the UCLA this
was not a fake loss. This was a UCLA team
that rushed for two hundred and sixty nine yards and
five point one yards per carry. They were that size favorite,
and they were out gained by seventy eight yards. After
getting out gained by one hundred and forty eight yards.
In Northwestern, we have a team that wants to run
the ball. Granted they only played Ulm rushing the ball
for thirty eight times for two forty six, but they
rush forty two times against UCLA, thirty seven against Oregon,
and forty one against Western Illinois. I actually like the
under here and I would only bet the Northwestern side.
Speaker 1: All right, Another question here from Rob Christensen. I would
also love to hear and take on arganzas see new
coach angle in play, Ralph. How do teams respond after
they fire their head coach?
Speaker 7: You know, I don't have that in college football. Kel, sorry,
but you know this isn't a new head coach. This
is a coach who was here fifteen years ago, right,
so he has fifteen years experience at this at this school.
You know, this is a game where you look at
you look at Arkansas and you say, well, they only
put up three hundred and sixty five yards against Notre Dame.
That's an actually pretty decent amount. The other four games
this year they actually had season highs. So when they
went to Mississippi, they had five hundred and twenty six
yards when they went to Memphis, they had five hundred yards.
This offense is still dynamic. We know the Tennessee offense.
This total is crazy high, but I actually do.
Speaker 6: Like the over.
Speaker 7: And let's remember this. When we have these totals that
approach seventy the bookmakers don't actually have to make the
number where it should be. I actually think this total
should be seventy three. But at sixty nine and a
half or sixty eight and a half, they're getting equal
money on both sides. So often I do like to
look at high totals and bet over. I do like
taking low totals and betting under. We joked about the
MLB game last night, five and a half. Well, it's
five and a half for a reason. Same thing with
this total being this high, Tennessee's offense top twenty, averaging
more than their opponents to loow. Well, guess what Arkansas
the last three weeks has allowed four seventy five eighty
nine six forty one over for me?
Speaker 1: Yeah, everybody's texting me right now, Kelly, what are the needs?
I'm like, can you guys just not watch the show?
So here, I am being a good friend and sitting
out what everybody wants here's a good question. Ralph grew
up an Ohio State fan. I think he's got some
pretty good insight on this team. So jay Rice wants
to know, does Illinois have a chance today. I'm not
gonna lie. I looked at the plus fourteen. I like
this Illinois team. I like Brett Bielam as an underdog.
Do I think they have a shot to win? And
my answer was no, And that is initially why I said, Okay,
I'm not going to use them in my parlay. Then
we kind of went back and forth. Arn't said he
would need them today at the Westgates super Book. Tell
me your thoughts, resident Ohio State fan.
Speaker 6: Well, I am not going against Ohio State defense.
Speaker 7: I mean, when you're number one, they actually you know
you're the number one team, which means you're one spot
better than two. But they would actually be like a
negative fifteen. They're probably sixteen spots better than the number
two defense in the country. They've held all five opponents
to a season low. They are averaging holding those opponents
two hundred and twenty yards under what they average. By
the way, Illinois is averaging three ninety eight. I think
Illinois knows their only chance is to run the ball
against this defense.
Speaker 6: We also have a.
Speaker 7: Freshman quarterback, even though Julian Sayan is not playing like
a freshman quarterback with a thirteen to three ratio and
completing the highest percentage in college football at eighty percent.
This is only a second road game, and remember against
Washington they were very slow to start, and in fact,
they only had one hundred and thirty eight yards and
seven points at halftime. I actually have a client play
on first half under Illinois Ohio State.
Speaker 6: It's yours for free.
Speaker 7: Ooh.
Speaker 1: I like that first half under for Ralph. Last time
he came on the show and gave us the first
half under. It was easy pasy. Hopefully we get that
as well today. Here's kind of an obscure one, but
Marco did talk about this game on bet on It
Ralph James Madison eighteen and a half points.
Speaker 3: Russell wants to know if this is too many?
Speaker 6: Well, didn't we just get a best bet on that
from Art? You know?
Speaker 7: So I don't want to tell people that I like
the other side if they already bet you know, if
they already bet you, well, but.
Speaker 1: Maybe, but maybe you're gonna provide some insight that makes
them have their own decision, right.
Speaker 3: I Art's best bets have been doing well, but so
have Marco.
Speaker 7: So yeah, kind of ass is a game I did
not get involved with. You know, James Madison coming off
a game at Georgia State where they gained two hundred
and eighty five yards and Ull finally has their rush
attack together there that has to run the ball to
be successful under Desormo, their head coach. You know, the
last couple of weeks again it is Eastern Michigan and
Marshall where they put a four hundred forty one and
four hundred and sixty one yards. I do like ul
as a dog here, but nowhere near a play for me.
Speaker 1: All right, let's see what else we got for questions.
If you guys have a UFC question, drop it in
the chat. Kyle, Anthony's coming up here in about ninety seconds.
We already talked about this one. Let's see what else
we got, Kelly. Does Florida Maryland South Carolina parlay actually
have a chance or is it a donation?
Speaker 3: Well, last week's parlay actually.
Speaker 1: Had a chance, and then all three teams blew a
double digit lead. I'm gonna be honest with you, I
don't know. I cannot play the football games for these teams.
It has been a very frustrating season. We'll leave it
at that.
Speaker 3: Anything else, let's see what we got here for Ralph
and Ralph, here we go. We'll get this last one.
Speaker 1: Ralph's thoughts on the Arizona EYU game tonight. Keep staring
at the plus two and a half with the home team,
and I'm hoping there's a reason three would be bought
up is offered. All right, let's kind of break down
this game. This is a game that I think, well,
is interesting. This is Arizona, who I'll say they've taken
a step forward this year, right, and maybe BYU's taking
a small step back. I do think this is a
really pick them type situation. So I didn't get involved, Ralph,
what are your thoughts on this big twelve matchup late night?
Speaker 7: You know I did not get involved either, Kelly, and
you look at BYU and you know it's We're starting
to get a little bit where the schedule becomes more
and more important. Going to East Carolina getting a win,
going to Colorado eking out a win, coming home against
West Virginia, and now traveling again to Arizona. Arizona at
home again. We are talking one of the weakest schedules
out there. Hawaii, Weaver State, Kansas State. They only win
by six even though they had a two hundred plus
yard edge, lose to Iowa State and lose to Oklahoma State.
To me Arizona State byu even on offenses. The defense
here's where I'm gonna surprise you. I actually give a
slight edge to Arizona with the better defense. They've held
three of their five opponents to a season low. They're
allowing eighty eight yards per game and three point zero
yards per carry rushing.
Speaker 6: I do like the Wildcats at home.
Speaker 3: All right, Wildcats for Ralph. We're gonna get Ralph out
of here.
Speaker 1: But first, Ralph, what do you got going on over
at wager talk dot com.
Speaker 7: Well, guys, you got a few minutes to get the
Weekend Warrior. My college football plays on a twenty seven
and fourteen run sixty six percent, and I have a
five percent NFL play on Sunday The Weekend Warrior. Get
you both my NFL teasers twenty five and seven four
percent and five percent teasers sixteen and three. I'm number
one at Wager Talk five percent, the last three hundred
sixty five years football five percent, seventeen and five Weekend
Warrior forty nine bucks. All of my Saturday college football,
all of my Sunday NFL, and if I have Monday
NFL as well, it's yours as a bonus. The Weekend
Warrior Kelly has been one of the best specials we've
ever had. It's exploding every weekend. Why wouldn't it? One
last note about it, Guys, do not wait until Saturday
to get the Weekend Warrior.
Speaker 6: If you know who you like.
Speaker 7: Sign up on Tuesday, and as soon as we load
those plays you get the line value that we want
you to get by being a Weekend Warrior customer. Again,
wait until Saturday is silly. If there's a if there's
a service.
Speaker 6: That you know you're gonna be following for the weekend.
Speaker 1: All right, Ralph, We're gonna get you out of here
real quick.
Speaker 3: Ladies.
Speaker 1: Guys are not paying attention on social media. The Haughty
Threes in Parlay. It hasn't been called that a long time,
but it does not have a new name. We're looking
at Maryland starts at three thirty Eastern Florida tonight in
South Carolina, Tonight, Ford truck Man, do me a favor,
at least give us the thumbs up, Maybe hit that
subscribe button since you don't want to go to myself
social media and watch that video. All right, let's bring
in Kyle Anthony. We've got a pair of UFC fights.
He's been waiting a long time, so I appreciate his patience.
But the good news is, Kyle, we've got four thousand people.
Now you would have brought on the show, you would
have had the smaller amount of numbers, So you got
four thousand people wanting these UFC picks. Let's kind of
get into some of your thoughts here on this card
as a whole before we break down your two games.
Speaker 8: Yeah, this is a good card here. It's in Rio.
It's gonna start at about four o'clock. It's gonna be
on ESPN. Plus, there's some great fights here, especially if
you want some entertaining crowd. Rio Brazil crowd is absolutely crazy.
They're gonna be going nuts throughout the whole time. Plus,
there's a lot of really good betting opportunities here, So
a lot of spots I do have. I've got five
client plays right now. The last two weeks, we've done
very well. Over the last two weeks, we've cashed thirteen units.
So got to keep it rolling. And like I said,
I always I always say this. You know, everyone loves
the big numbered cards, but there's eight betting opportunities every
week basically on a Saturday, for fights in UFC.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely, listen, I understand because you want to go
to the bar. You're at the bar, you're watching college
football late. You got the UFC fights. I mean I
did that whole thing last weekend and it was crazy
to be back and forth having action on one of
your fights as well as trying to watch my team's
not imployed by double digits. Let's get into this first
fight here, Joel Alvarez versus Vicini Luke A talk to me,
why you like Alvarez by knockout? Yes?
Speaker 5: So, so this one here, it's a wide line.
Speaker 8: You've got Alvarez, he's around minus five to fifty on
the comeback. Here, we do have Vicente Luki have plus
four hundred and definitely going to find a way to
make this a plus money by the knockout, and he's
minus five fifty for all the right reasons here.
Speaker 5: I mean, this guy is an absolute killer.
Speaker 8: He's got twenty two victories, all come inside the distance,
a hundred percent finish rate. And the thing about him
is he's good everywhere, you know. I mean he's good
on the ground. He can submit you, he can have
the knockouts. He's really a very tough style, ballistic matchup
for a lot of guys in the division. He's got
a big frame. He's very large. But one of the
things here is that Luke used to kind of be
that way. He was a guy that would come forward,
he would throw, he would want a phone booth bite,
you know, take one to give one, keep it close.
Speaker 5: He was durable.
Speaker 8: And then he took an absolute beating against Jeff Neil,
which was a terrible, terrible showing for him. He got
knocked out. Afterwards, he contemplated retirement. He also had brain bleeding.
Wasn't very good situation for him and just didn't really
seem like things were going for him. They did clear
him to come back. He's come back and he has
really looked a shell of himself since returning, and the
thing he's really needed to do is instead of standing
striking and kind of leaning on that durability. He's not
leaning on the wrestling. He's kind of trying to protect
the chind a little bit. Now, a lot of opponents,
you know, want to you know, look to kind of
you know, do that kind of thing and mix it
up a little bit. But the thing here is that
Albarez is so elite on the ground that I think
that threat of how good and how high level jiu
jitsu that Albarez has, that he's going to be able
to kind of keep this standing because I don't think
Luka is gonna want to really be going into the
teeth of really what he can do well. And I
know that all you know, most of I should say
Alvarez does have submission victories, but I think this really
primes very well for Luke to get knocked out brutally
in this fight here at this particular point that you know,
Alvarez is the better striker, the harder hitter.
Speaker 5: You know, he's really the guy that's.
Speaker 8: Going to have that aggressive style, that volume he's going
to be able to move forward. And the thing about
it also is that you know, Albarez has all these submissions,
and you would think that he has gone out there
and he's getting a bunch of takedowns. Out of alvarez
is nine UFC fights, he's only shot two takedowns and
he missed both of them. So most of the time,
if he's going to the ground, it's his opponent's choice too,
and it has not worked out well for his opponents.
He's choking them out. So I think this plays out
on the feet. Three of the last five losses for
Luke are inside the distance, while on the other side
here three of the last four where Alvarez are inside
the distance. So I think that he finds this victory
by not out. I think it's going to be brutal,
and I think plus one fifty on Albarez is a
really nice price here on a very likely outcome.
Speaker 1: All right, here's an interesting question. I'm going to add
it one step further, big Sis. Lisa has been going
crazy in the chat this morning, so I'm going to
give her some love. Hi there, Kyle, do you think
that there will be the best fight in Finite two
sixty one? Now I'm going to take it one step further.
A fight that you think is going to be the
best that you didn't bet, maybe you want to bet
like you're like, this is going to be such a
great fight.
Speaker 3: I want to get involved, but there's no value.
Speaker 8: And so there's been a lot of those, I mean
because and it's even even to last week's point.
Speaker 5: You know, last week it was you know, Alex Pereira.
Speaker 8: You know, it was such a spot where you know,
there was so much down talk about the guy about hey,
he broke his hand?
Speaker 5: Did he break his hand? Do you believe it?
Speaker 8: And you know, Perera is one of my most I
would say my most profitable fighters.
Speaker 5: That I have backed.
Speaker 8: You know, I have been max betting him throughout pretty
much his run. He has done very well with that.
And then it was almost like last week it was
almost like am I over thanking it? But is the
line throwing me off a little bit?
Speaker 2: There?
Speaker 8: But that was the spot there, right, I had a
ton of value on a guy at plus two thirty
got the knockout quickly. I did bet on that. But
as in something that I have not bet on top
of my head, you know, I don't really have anything
particular to uh, you know, to throw out there.
Speaker 1: All right, let's go over this next fight here. We've
got Clayton Carpenter versus Feli feel thank oh gosh.
Speaker 5: I was writing it in flack. I was like, I
can't wait for her say this.
Speaker 1: You guys, if you've never seen the video of me
at the Westgate super Book pronouncing fighters, I I don't think.
Speaker 3: Actually it's very that's great.
Speaker 8: H so uh so we've got Clayon Carpenter here versus
of Philo, and now you've got Filo. Now, this line
did flip last night. It was basically the other way.
You had a short favorite for Carpenter and now it's
flipped over to me as a short dog now and
you got Feelo that.
Speaker 5: You know, this guy is.
Speaker 8: A very aggressive presser rappler. He wants to come forward,
he's gonna crash the pocket. You know, he's going to
look to get the takedowns and he's not going to
really look to strike too much. And if he does
look to strike, you know, it's pretty much just cutting
distance to get his hands on it to get these takedowns.
Speaker 5: He's got very good back takes and there are some
things that he does well.
Speaker 8: One of the biggest issues here is that Yefie the
elite level grappler, but he is extremely extremely low volume
striker and that has hurt him multiple times throughout his career.
And you know, he lands less than two significant strikes
per mint. If that is off the charts low, that
is absurdly low and out of his course. It's a
little bit smaller of a sample size only four fights,
but the two fights that went three rounds, he landed
nine significant strikes in fourteen. So it's just really no
process to his striking. He doesn't really have too much
power on the feet as well, and he's really leaning
on I need to get these takedowns. I need to
find that control time and that's you know, ground and
pounds submissions. That's really where he's looking to do because
the striking is wild, it's basic. While I do think
that Carpenter here, you know what he offers, and I
think something that's the biggest thing that will counter some
stuff that he does do is going to be the rest.
And he does have a good wrestling background. If he
can counter some of those takedowns that Filo is gonna
be shooting, he's gonna be able to keep it on
the feet when he needs to, even if it goes
to the ground. I do believe that Carpenter has shown
some scrambling ability, get up ability. He's gonna be the
better athlete between these two guys. And another big aspect
here is that I think there's a wide gap that's
gonna be favoring Carpenter and Cardio. And you know Jafiel,
you know early you're gonna see him in this first round.
He's probably gonna just run across the cage and try
to look for takedown and that can work in certain spots.
But I think again, a guy that can really nullify
some of those wrestling aspects I think allows Carpenter to
find success. And then if anytime this plays out on
the feet, Carpenter has a massive advantage on the feet.
He's a far better striker chrisper combinations, he's the better boxer.
Speaker 5: He was a former.
Speaker 8: Golden Gloves champion, and I think he's just more technical
in any of those situations. I think he finds a
lot of success on the feet. Again, Fiello, the Cardio's
not there, but he's very good on top. If he
can get those takedowns. You know, Fiel can be dangerous,
But anytime he's been on his back, he has just
not been able to get up. He has struggled, and
I think that opens up an opportunity or carpenter to
look for some takedowns and be offensive with his wrestling,
not just worrying about the takedowns himself, looking for some
of those takedowns on his side here. So you're getting
him now at at around plus one one oh eight.
There's some like plus one tens one fifteen's out there.
Speaker 5: So I like that.
Speaker 8: I mean, plus money's good money, and I think that
he gets a job done today.
Speaker 1: Plus money is good money, and so is the hero parlay.
I'm guessing what is asking about? You know, I told
these guys, I said, you need to.
Speaker 3: Go to my social media.
Speaker 1: I work really hard, but you know, it's a couple
of kickoff. I'm feeling generous today. Do you want to
give out your hero parlayor at least tell people where
they can watch it.
Speaker 8: Yeah, So I'm going to be posting that probably after this,
probably in the next half hour.
Speaker 5: So it's three plays now. Listen. I know a lot
of people get crazy here.
Speaker 8: They think, you know, they want to put like a
bunch of units on this, and they you know, and there.
This is the reason I called a hero parlay is
because we're going to be heroes if we hit this parlay.
It's not an easy thing to hit its plays either.
I've kind of edged out that I'm not looking to
bet straight or maybe some of them that that I are.
Sometimes I'm mixing it together. But that's where you're gonna
find it. At my Twitter at Kyle Anthony UFC. You
can check it out in about a half hour.
Speaker 1: All right, it's not out yet. Everybody's gotta wait. Sorry, mate,
I was trying to like, get.
Speaker 5: You check it out, check it out?
Speaker 3: Can you give me?
Speaker 1: Can you give me one of the legs? How about
give me the longest leg? Give me like something exciting here, Kyle?
Speaker 8: That is like, if this is well, I can I
would say probably the the one that I could say
that it's the main event. I could say that it's
going to be my my, my, my.
Speaker 5: Actual top one.
Speaker 2: There.
Speaker 5: It's gonna be Charles Alavera. I do like him there.
I think this is a great spot for him.
Speaker 8: It's a two week notice for Gamera, coming in on
short notice in Brazil to a five rounder.
Speaker 5: I like Charles, so that's gonna be one leg of
the hero parlagh.
Speaker 3: I love that this.
Speaker 1: Is gonna be awesome. I can't wait to watch that
fight here and just a little bit, Kyle, let everybody
know what else you've not going on over at wager
talk dot com before we get out of here, because
kickoff is in twelve minutes.
Speaker 5: All right, So I have five plays up right now.
Speaker 8: I have a four percent money line play have hit
over the last two years seventy two on those four
percent plays, and I've got some plus money in there.
Got some great spots we're gonna cash again. Thirteen units
over the last two events. We're gonna make it like
twenty over the next three.
Speaker 2: That.
Speaker 3: Don't mind me, guys, I'm just betting. In the background.
I'm just changing some of my splash.
Speaker 5: It's good, it's good. You got a fire.
Speaker 3: This is the time listen, and then we got stuff
going on. This is what this call. This is what
last call is. It is last call.
Speaker 1: We gotta get those vestin. We gotta get ready for UFC.
Let's have an awesome Saturday. Make sure you guys are
giving Kyle a follow at Kyle Anthony UFC. That hero
parlay will be up on his Twitter here in a
little bit. I'll be sure to retweet it for you
guys as well. Thank you, Kyle, and we'll see you
next Saturday. We're gonna keep the UFC rolling here. It
seems like you guys are really enjoying it. Almost forty
four hundred of you guys watching live right now. Make
sure you guys come back tomorrow, same time, same place.
Ariel Epstein is going to be hosting. We've got John
Murray for a look behind the counter at the West Gates.
We've got VR and I gotta figure out who else
is gonna be on the show. Oh, I got it already.
I looked at the schedule. Jesse Schule is gonna be
talking from all NFL things from wager Talk dot com.
So sur seted lineup, and then right after we got
the steam room. Then after that we got End Zone
Live with the pres good thing. I got those vivas
on ice from Ralph. We'll see you guys next Saturday
right here on wager Talk Last Call. Have a good one.