WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.400 --> 00:00:03.799 Your summer pocket knife of information. It's the only way 2 00:00:03.839 --> 00:00:06.879 to stay in for him. Fifty five ARC the talk 3 00:00:06.960 --> 00:00:12.279 station at five the fifty five k RCD talk station. 4 00:00:12.439 --> 00:00:15.119 It's Monday, regular listeners, No, it's that time of week 5 00:00:15.199 --> 00:00:20.960 we talk money with all Worth Financials. Brian James, Welcome back, 6 00:00:21.000 --> 00:00:22.519 my friend. It's always pleasure to have you on. Thanks 7 00:00:22.559 --> 00:00:24.399 to Aalworth for loaning out every Monday at this time. 8 00:00:24.719 --> 00:00:27.320 Good morning, mister Thomas, hope you had another good weekend. 9 00:00:27.519 --> 00:00:30.079 Fantastic weekend and a special shout out to my friends 10 00:00:30.160 --> 00:00:33.799 in Westchester where the Hoodie memorial. Corey Hood died in 11 00:00:33.880 --> 00:00:37.960 a tragic parachuting incident. He was a Golden Knight and 12 00:00:38.119 --> 00:00:41.960 he was a huge, huge supporter of Westchester and Lakota 13 00:00:42.079 --> 00:00:44.920 High School everywhere he went around the world as a 14 00:00:45.000 --> 00:00:47.520 Golden Knight, he promoted the community and his love for 15 00:00:47.600 --> 00:00:49.719 the community. And so they've honored his memory, and this 16 00:00:49.840 --> 00:00:52.679 is the tenth year for the fundraiser. They've established some 17 00:00:52.799 --> 00:00:54.880 scholarships in his name, and they had me out every 18 00:00:54.920 --> 00:00:57.880 year to speak a few words and kind of facilitate it. 19 00:00:58.000 --> 00:01:00.240 And it was just a glorious, glorious of it. It 20 00:01:00.359 --> 00:01:02.280 always is one of those things that reminds you that 21 00:01:02.359 --> 00:01:04.920 there's so much good going on in the world in 22 00:01:05.000 --> 00:01:06.599 spite of the fact that we deal with a bunch 23 00:01:06.680 --> 00:01:08.359 of crap each and every day in the news. 24 00:01:08.760 --> 00:01:10.159 Yeah, that's my neck of the ones. 25 00:01:10.159 --> 00:01:12.920 And yeah, it is wonderful that that that story has 26 00:01:13.000 --> 00:01:14.879 gotten out there, and it seems to be growing every 27 00:01:14.920 --> 00:01:15.480 single year. 28 00:01:15.920 --> 00:01:16.079 You know. 29 00:01:16.159 --> 00:01:18.000 The silver lining of it is, well, now his story 30 00:01:18.079 --> 00:01:19.400 is out there, the kind of person he was and 31 00:01:19.439 --> 00:01:20.000 what he stood for. 32 00:01:20.280 --> 00:01:22.040 Oh yeah, yeah, and the fact that he's I mean, 33 00:01:22.079 --> 00:01:24.719 these are twenty two five hundred dollars scholarships that they 34 00:01:24.840 --> 00:01:28.159 now they've got the scholarship fully funded. They've been so 35 00:01:28.280 --> 00:01:30.359 successful with the fundraising efforts they don't have to add 36 00:01:30.359 --> 00:01:32.840 another dime to that. The return on investment will cover 37 00:01:33.000 --> 00:01:35.519 the annual scholarship. So they have two other scholarships that 38 00:01:35.519 --> 00:01:38.159 they're working to get to that point. But great people 39 00:01:38.319 --> 00:01:41.640 out there. They're just so fun and welcoming, and again 40 00:01:41.799 --> 00:01:45.480 is one of those I really needed this event kind 41 00:01:45.519 --> 00:01:47.640 of moment is the way I feel every year about it. 42 00:01:47.719 --> 00:01:50.959 It's like, because here I am surrounded by bad news 43 00:01:51.079 --> 00:01:54.319 and you know, division and intolerance and beat downs, and 44 00:01:55.000 --> 00:01:56.120 you show up and something like that. You know what, 45 00:01:56.239 --> 00:01:58.599 the world is still sane. The world is still a 46 00:01:58.680 --> 00:01:59.359 great place. 47 00:01:59.680 --> 00:02:02.079 There are people out there who aren't in conflict and 48 00:02:02.200 --> 00:02:03.799 arguing with each other at all times. 49 00:02:05.200 --> 00:02:06.799 That's what I get out of the event. So that'll 50 00:02:06.840 --> 00:02:09.039 carry me now for a month or maybe two, and 51 00:02:09.159 --> 00:02:11.400 then I'll be back to filling blue and misery. 52 00:02:12.680 --> 00:02:14.280 You mean, like for the next ten to fifteen minutes. 53 00:02:14.479 --> 00:02:18.800 Yes, yeah, all right, let's pivot over. Donald Trump has 54 00:02:18.840 --> 00:02:22.759 been having a real problem with each FED chair Jerome Powell. 55 00:02:22.800 --> 00:02:25.000 He's been screaming and clamoring for Powell to lower the 56 00:02:25.039 --> 00:02:26.919 interest right, and of course the most recent meeting of 57 00:02:27.000 --> 00:02:30.199 the Federal Open Mouth Committee is ed. Think you used 58 00:02:30.199 --> 00:02:32.439 to call it, held the rates at where they are, 59 00:02:32.520 --> 00:02:34.879 which is what four point five percent? So no lowering 60 00:02:34.960 --> 00:02:37.680 of the rates and what the last five times they met, 61 00:02:37.759 --> 00:02:38.680 they've kept it the same. 62 00:02:39.479 --> 00:02:41.919 Yeah, that's pretty much right. We're the FED does not 63 00:02:42.159 --> 00:02:44.400 move quickly. We don't want to spook anything. You don't 64 00:02:44.400 --> 00:02:46.360 want to spook the herd. That's always been the way 65 00:02:46.400 --> 00:02:49.919 the FED has thought. And so they stepped lightly. Like 66 00:02:49.960 --> 00:02:51.840 we've talked about a couple times in these airwaves. The 67 00:02:52.080 --> 00:02:54.840 you know, the President apparently has established the ability to 68 00:02:55.240 --> 00:02:57.719 change his mind on a dime. Today, we're putting tariffs 69 00:02:57.719 --> 00:03:00.240 against a certain country at a certain percentage. Tomorrow, Yeah, 70 00:03:00.240 --> 00:03:02.360 we're gonna hold off on that. Federal Reserve chairs do 71 00:03:02.479 --> 00:03:04.919 not have that luxury. They cannot spook the market like that. 72 00:03:05.000 --> 00:03:07.199 That's going to cause more problems than it solves. So 73 00:03:07.840 --> 00:03:10.199 they're not moving fast enough anyway, although I don't believe 74 00:03:10.240 --> 00:03:12.400 any FED chair will be able to move fast enough 75 00:03:12.439 --> 00:03:13.639 to keep President Trump happy. 76 00:03:14.240 --> 00:03:16.680 But in this case, there's also behind this. There's just 77 00:03:16.759 --> 00:03:17.800 a difference in philosophy. 78 00:03:17.840 --> 00:03:19.400 Trump feels an interest rates should have been on the 79 00:03:20.520 --> 00:03:23.240 you know, months, if not years ago, and fedshair Pale 80 00:03:23.400 --> 00:03:26.159 is feeling a little differently about that in terms of 81 00:03:26.800 --> 00:03:28.919 his face is on this. So he has to be 82 00:03:29.000 --> 00:03:30.400 the one making the right decisions. 83 00:03:30.560 --> 00:03:34.319 Well, it's not his unilateral decision. It is made up 84 00:03:34.360 --> 00:03:36.280 of a board of governors. I think. What there are 85 00:03:36.360 --> 00:03:39.759 seven members that make up the Federal Board, and don't 86 00:03:39.800 --> 00:03:42.120 they all sort of say and is it a majority 87 00:03:42.280 --> 00:03:46.120 opinion on whether to raise or lower rates? Yes, it is, so. 88 00:03:46.240 --> 00:03:47.879 Yeah, there's a board of governors out there, and two 89 00:03:47.960 --> 00:03:50.319 of them recently came out last week and said that 90 00:03:50.599 --> 00:03:52.639 they felt like it's time to start lower interest rates. 91 00:03:52.919 --> 00:03:56.039 And that's not too shocking either, because you know that 92 00:03:56.159 --> 00:03:58.240 the numbers are starting to come out. We're going to 93 00:03:58.280 --> 00:04:00.400 talk about that a little bit themselves, of course, but 94 00:04:00.439 --> 00:04:03.159 they are starting to come out in favor of what 95 00:04:03.560 --> 00:04:06.439 ter Powell. Chair Powell wants to act on more evidence 96 00:04:06.520 --> 00:04:08.280 in general, so he's a little bit slower than some 97 00:04:08.439 --> 00:04:10.800 have been in the past, but those numbers are coming out. 98 00:04:10.840 --> 00:04:12.360 It's looking more and more like we're going to see 99 00:04:12.360 --> 00:04:14.840 a rad cut here in September. So we may we 100 00:04:15.199 --> 00:04:18.079 looks like we may very well get what the president 101 00:04:18.279 --> 00:04:20.360 is is it has been asking for in what some 102 00:04:20.480 --> 00:04:22.839 of the political population believe as well. 103 00:04:22.920 --> 00:04:24.839 It's just not happening fast enough to keep everybody happy. 104 00:04:25.000 --> 00:04:27.000 But they can only raise or lower rates at these 105 00:04:27.040 --> 00:04:30.199 Federal Open Market Committees meetings, and they only have those. 106 00:04:30.120 --> 00:04:34.279 How often once a month, so once a month, so 107 00:04:34.519 --> 00:04:36.439 and they yeah, they can't really go off psyche. Well 108 00:04:36.439 --> 00:04:38.120 that's not chilly, So they've done it in the past, 109 00:04:38.240 --> 00:04:41.560 but both real references not to uh, the preference is 110 00:04:41.639 --> 00:04:43.480 not to do that because again, it just tends to 111 00:04:43.560 --> 00:04:44.279 rattle things too much. 112 00:04:44.519 --> 00:04:46.879 Well, like Trump's tariffs. You know, if if they're on 113 00:04:47.040 --> 00:04:49.079 one day and off the next, you can't adjust for that. 114 00:04:49.240 --> 00:04:52.360 But at least I suppose knowing that one month from 115 00:04:52.480 --> 00:04:54.360 the last meeting, you're going to get another meeting where 116 00:04:54.360 --> 00:04:56.319 the option is there could be the lower rates or 117 00:04:56.399 --> 00:04:59.439 raised and we're keeping the same there's only, like I guess, 118 00:04:59.560 --> 00:05:02.120 one month worth of stability. So it's really not that much. 119 00:05:03.160 --> 00:05:06.480 Yeah, in what we're trying to do with these kinds 120 00:05:06.480 --> 00:05:08.800 of things, remember what businesses have to make decisions. You know, 121 00:05:08.839 --> 00:05:10.600 there's a business out there that wants to build a 122 00:05:10.639 --> 00:05:14.040 factory or something like that and create jobs. And I'm 123 00:05:14.040 --> 00:05:16.360 sort of making this up as hypothetical example, but somebody 124 00:05:16.399 --> 00:05:18.040 out there is sitting in a conference room right now 125 00:05:18.199 --> 00:05:21.040 trying to decide do we execute this loan with this 126 00:05:21.240 --> 00:05:24.160 bank right now or do we wait six weeks in 127 00:05:24.360 --> 00:05:27.120 this end of September and see what the Federal Reserve 128 00:05:27.199 --> 00:05:28.959 is going to do because we could get a better 129 00:05:29.000 --> 00:05:31.040 interest rate out of the deal. So you know, there 130 00:05:31.319 --> 00:05:34.079 are this is something there has to be some predictability 131 00:05:34.120 --> 00:05:36.279 to it, where if I'm trying to make a decision 132 00:05:36.319 --> 00:05:38.959 that's going to employ hundreds of thousands of people, you know, 133 00:05:39.079 --> 00:05:41.439 build build some factories, as the President is wanting here, Well, 134 00:05:41.439 --> 00:05:43.160 then I need to know what my bank financing terms 135 00:05:43.160 --> 00:05:43.560 are going to be. 136 00:05:43.639 --> 00:05:45.160 And a lot of that comes right out of the Fed. 137 00:05:45.199 --> 00:05:47.560 So I need to be able to understand what they're 138 00:05:47.600 --> 00:05:49.040 going to do and the timing of when they're going 139 00:05:49.120 --> 00:05:51.959 to do it, not this afternoon is different from tomorrow morning. 140 00:05:52.120 --> 00:05:54.720 Well, we've had this conversation with the subject of mortgages. 141 00:05:54.839 --> 00:05:56.720 It's a kind of a cosmic crabshoot are they going 142 00:05:56.759 --> 00:05:57.959 to go up or are they going to go down? 143 00:05:58.079 --> 00:06:00.360 And you know, when we bought our first home, there 144 00:06:00.439 --> 00:06:02.639 was really big question mark as with the direction they 145 00:06:02.639 --> 00:06:06.079 were going to go. So lock it in, but recognize 146 00:06:06.120 --> 00:06:09.040 you could always refinance at some point in the future. 147 00:06:09.079 --> 00:06:11.639 I mean businesses can do that. I suppose the interest 148 00:06:11.720 --> 00:06:14.079 rate is really more about the federal government and the 149 00:06:14.199 --> 00:06:15.680 interest they pay on the T bills. 150 00:06:16.439 --> 00:06:17.279 Yes, absolutely so. 151 00:06:17.439 --> 00:06:20.639 Yeah, So interest rates are manipulated two ways, directly from 152 00:06:20.759 --> 00:06:24.639 the Federal from the Fed, and whatever the market wants 153 00:06:24.639 --> 00:06:26.480 to do. The market has its own opinions and it 154 00:06:26.519 --> 00:06:28.399 will drive bonds up and down, and that has an 155 00:06:28.439 --> 00:06:31.120 effect on interest rates itself. So both of those two 156 00:06:31.199 --> 00:06:33.839 things result in what a might a company might sign 157 00:06:33.920 --> 00:06:36.199 off on, or an individual on a mortgage. Both of 158 00:06:36.240 --> 00:06:38.879 those impact exactly what those numbers are that appear on 159 00:06:38.959 --> 00:06:39.439 that contract. 160 00:06:39.600 --> 00:06:41.000 All right, Since I know we're gonna be talk about 161 00:06:41.079 --> 00:06:45.680 viuera labor statistics and the Donald Trump's rather his reaction 162 00:06:45.839 --> 00:06:48.720 to the statistics that we're handed out. What are the 163 00:06:48.920 --> 00:06:53.079 various statistics just generally speaking, that the FED looks at 164 00:06:53.199 --> 00:06:57.120 in making a determination. Obviously labor rates are one of them, 165 00:06:57.199 --> 00:06:59.920 but what are the others? So the FED is look 166 00:07:00.120 --> 00:07:01.920 get CPI. The FED has a dual mandate. 167 00:07:01.959 --> 00:07:05.480 Their job is to keep employment at full employment, which 168 00:07:05.519 --> 00:07:06.399 is never one hundred percent. 169 00:07:06.480 --> 00:07:08.120 That makes no sense when we have one hundred percent 170 00:07:08.160 --> 00:07:09.000 employment or near it. 171 00:07:09.079 --> 00:07:13.399 That's when you see companies like McDonald's offering signing bonuses 172 00:07:13.439 --> 00:07:16.600 because they can simply can't find workers. So full employment 173 00:07:16.680 --> 00:07:19.199 is more like ninety five percent employment. And they want 174 00:07:19.240 --> 00:07:21.519 to keep prices under control. That is their primary role. 175 00:07:21.560 --> 00:07:23.759 There's a million statistics and reports and all kinds of 176 00:07:23.800 --> 00:07:25.319 things that they look at, but it basically has to 177 00:07:25.399 --> 00:07:27.839 do with employment and CPI. Those are the two things. 178 00:07:27.839 --> 00:07:30.399 If we keep those under control, keep those where we 179 00:07:30.519 --> 00:07:33.439 want them. We want employment around ninety five percent ish 180 00:07:33.800 --> 00:07:35.839 and we want inflation around two to two and a 181 00:07:35.959 --> 00:07:38.360 quarter something like that. We're a little bit higher than 182 00:07:38.439 --> 00:07:41.319 that now, but we are well off our nine percent 183 00:07:41.399 --> 00:07:43.079 crazy highs from a few summers ago. 184 00:07:43.160 --> 00:07:44.519 So we're definitely training in the right direction. 185 00:07:44.600 --> 00:07:47.879 We just haven't actually ticked the box that would give 186 00:07:47.920 --> 00:07:50.360 a green light to Jerome Pale in his own thinking. 187 00:07:50.519 --> 00:07:51.959 Well, and going back to the Board of Governors, I 188 00:07:52.040 --> 00:07:56.000 understand Governor Adrianna Kugler stepped down early. It was reported. 189 00:07:56.120 --> 00:07:58.879 I thought I recalled reading and correct me if I'm wrong, Brian, 190 00:07:58.879 --> 00:08:01.720 it's we have you here for She was angry that 191 00:08:01.800 --> 00:08:03.839 they didn't lower the rate, so she stepped down off 192 00:08:03.879 --> 00:08:05.639 the Board of Governors. Have I got the background on 193 00:08:05.720 --> 00:08:08.120 that one, right? Yeah? There was. 194 00:08:08.439 --> 00:08:10.279 So she announced in August. 195 00:08:11.560 --> 00:08:13.199 Just the other day that she was going to step down, 196 00:08:13.839 --> 00:08:16.240 but she was supposed to be around till January thirty. First, 197 00:08:16.240 --> 00:08:19.519 she didn't really give a clear reason in her letter, 198 00:08:19.600 --> 00:08:22.839 her resignation letter, but she did state her she does 199 00:08:22.959 --> 00:08:24.839 want to go back to academia and all those kinds 200 00:08:24.839 --> 00:08:27.079 of things. This is coming alongside that, you can kind 201 00:08:27.079 --> 00:08:30.000 of conclude that perhaps she didn't want to deal with 202 00:08:30.040 --> 00:08:33.000 the pressure that's going on between the President and Jerome Powell. 203 00:08:33.559 --> 00:08:35.399 She didn't even go to the meeting most recently. So, 204 00:08:36.039 --> 00:08:38.399 you know, all of this is speculation. It's not fair 205 00:08:38.480 --> 00:08:41.720 to guess what's in somebody's head, but you know you can. 206 00:08:41.799 --> 00:08:43.720 I think you can kind of infer from the lack 207 00:08:43.799 --> 00:08:46.879 of information that she shared about her decision that whatever 208 00:08:46.960 --> 00:08:50.399 it was probably would have caused more conflict and she 209 00:08:50.480 --> 00:08:51.360 was trying to avoid that too. 210 00:08:51.519 --> 00:08:53.240 Well, it's just the border of governors are nominated by 211 00:08:53.240 --> 00:08:55.440 the President, confirmed by the Senate. I can only imagine 212 00:08:55.480 --> 00:08:59.360 Donald Trump will get a an interest rate cut hawk 213 00:08:59.600 --> 00:09:01.639 in the you for this. How quickly can this turn 214 00:09:01.720 --> 00:09:03.000 around before the next vote. 215 00:09:04.799 --> 00:09:07.639 That's something I'm not sure to be able to be 216 00:09:07.720 --> 00:09:10.320 quite honest on that. Yeah, I'm not going to claim 217 00:09:10.360 --> 00:09:12.279 to be a civics expert. However, yes, I would say 218 00:09:12.279 --> 00:09:14.519 that President Trump definitely has and he's not the only one. 219 00:09:14.600 --> 00:09:16.399 Lots of presidents, of course want people to align with 220 00:09:16.440 --> 00:09:19.600 their thinking. He's just been the loudest about it. So yeah, 221 00:09:19.679 --> 00:09:22.720 I would be fairly confidence saying whoever gets nominated is 222 00:09:22.759 --> 00:09:25.799 going to be pretty well in support of Donald Trump's 223 00:09:26.360 --> 00:09:28.600 different perspective now. At the same time, remember he put 224 00:09:28.679 --> 00:09:31.519 Jerome Palell in this position too, so we'll see if 225 00:09:31.519 --> 00:09:33.039 it lasts throughout this person's term. 226 00:09:34.440 --> 00:09:36.919 I'm glad you made that point because I had forgotten. Yeah, 227 00:09:36.960 --> 00:09:40.000 this is a product of his own making in many respects. 228 00:09:40.039 --> 00:09:42.039 But you can't read the future. You have no idea 229 00:09:42.039 --> 00:09:44.320 if you're going to come to blows with your appointees. 230 00:09:44.919 --> 00:09:47.320 Down the road more with Brian James from all Worth Financial, 231 00:09:47.360 --> 00:09:49.840 we're going to talk about labor statistics, something else that's 232 00:09:49.919 --> 00:09:52.759 kind of the skin of Donald Trump, and job loss. 233 00:09:52.840 --> 00:09:54.879 A job loss is a consequence of it. First, though, 234 00:09:54.879 --> 00:09:58.360 Affordable Imaging Services. We are talking about money, and this 235 00:09:58.600 --> 00:10:00.720 is all about money because cause you're gonna get the 236 00:10:00.720 --> 00:10:02.879 same dang thing you're gonna get from the hospital imaging 237 00:10:02.919 --> 00:10:06.720 department at Affordable Imaging Services that is an echo cardigran, MRI, 238 00:10:06.879 --> 00:10:09.360 a CT scan, an ultrasound or X ray. You're gonna 239 00:10:09.360 --> 00:10:13.720 get it for a sizeable discount, I mean massive. Ask 240 00:10:13.840 --> 00:10:16.440 my listener friend Fred out there who said he saved 241 00:10:16.519 --> 00:10:19.919 six thousand dollars, and I always like mention Jeff too. 242 00:10:19.960 --> 00:10:23.000 He saved thirty one hundred dollars. Jeff got a CT scan. 243 00:10:23.120 --> 00:10:25.679 I've gotten three of them. Affordable imaging services. You know what, 244 00:10:26.080 --> 00:10:29.320 same equipment to hospitals, use medical professionals operating them. They've 245 00:10:29.320 --> 00:10:31.440 been at this for decades. A CT scan is not 246 00:10:31.799 --> 00:10:34.399 five thousand dollars, which is probably what it's going to 247 00:10:34.480 --> 00:10:37.159 cost you at the hospital. It's four point fifty four 248 00:10:37.240 --> 00:10:39.320 hundred and fifty bucks without a contrast six hundred with 249 00:10:39.360 --> 00:10:41.879 a contrast yup, been down that road. Doctors had no 250 00:10:42.000 --> 00:10:44.240 problem with many of the images. The images all all 251 00:10:44.399 --> 00:10:47.320 of them come with the price included a board certified 252 00:10:47.399 --> 00:10:51.240 radiologist report. It's low overhead. Folks, don't expect all these 253 00:10:51.279 --> 00:10:53.120 bells and whistles. Just expect you to get a good 254 00:10:53.200 --> 00:10:56.480 CT scan or an ultrasound, et cetera and save money. 255 00:10:56.600 --> 00:10:59.879 That's what it's about. Five three seven, five three eight thousand, 256 00:11:00.320 --> 00:11:02.840 five one three seven five three eight thousand. Check it 257 00:11:02.919 --> 00:11:08.679 all out online Affordable Meddimaging dot com. Fifty five krc OHC, 258 00:11:08.960 --> 00:11:11.879 Cincinnata KRCD Talk station. By the time of week, we 259 00:11:11.960 --> 00:11:15.440 talked money and it's money money with Brian James, and 260 00:11:15.519 --> 00:11:18.679 speaking of money matters, Brian completely unrelated to the labor 261 00:11:18.759 --> 00:11:21.279 stats that we're going to talk about here in a moment. Obviously, 262 00:11:21.440 --> 00:11:24.399 everyone in the community, across the entire country included, is 263 00:11:24.440 --> 00:11:27.399 talking about that beat down that Saturday and the woman 264 00:11:27.559 --> 00:11:30.360 Holly who got punched in the face. Somebody sent me 265 00:11:30.440 --> 00:11:32.960 a link to the gives Send Go campaign, which is 266 00:11:33.000 --> 00:11:35.000 where you can contribute to help her deal with her 267 00:11:35.039 --> 00:11:39.799 medical issues and everything. Three hundred and forty thousand, nine 268 00:11:39.960 --> 00:11:43.120 hundred dollars has been raised so far the last several days. 269 00:11:43.159 --> 00:11:44.799 That is absolutely amazing. 270 00:11:45.399 --> 00:11:47.480 Yeah, I think that was a huge attention to get 271 00:11:47.519 --> 00:11:49.279 her for our for our city here, and I think 272 00:11:49.320 --> 00:11:51.399 we'll get through it like we've gotten passed everything through 273 00:11:51.480 --> 00:11:52.360 everything in the past. 274 00:11:52.600 --> 00:11:53.519 You know, it's never smooth. 275 00:11:53.600 --> 00:11:55.639 But at the same time, yeah, I think this one 276 00:11:55.720 --> 00:11:58.559 is there's some obvious changes that are pretty much screaming 277 00:11:58.600 --> 00:12:00.480 out there, and I would say, have three hundred and 278 00:12:00.480 --> 00:12:01.799 forty thousand votes that would agree with. 279 00:12:01.840 --> 00:12:05.120 Me, there you go. And these are all pretty small contributions. 280 00:12:05.200 --> 00:12:07.600 Ten bucks here, fifteen bucks there. It's like every little 281 00:12:07.639 --> 00:12:09.960 bit counts much in the same way every little bit 282 00:12:10.000 --> 00:12:12.120 you put towards your retirement counts. You're going to get 283 00:12:12.120 --> 00:12:14.720 a compounding interest and return on that, so it's the 284 00:12:14.799 --> 00:12:17.320 right thing to do. Start planning for your future. They're 285 00:12:17.440 --> 00:12:20.720 a little plug for getting a financial plan. Excellent segue there, miss, 286 00:12:21.159 --> 00:12:23.840 I thought you might like that, all right, Moving back 287 00:12:23.840 --> 00:12:26.360 to one of the statistics that the FED does calculate 288 00:12:26.480 --> 00:12:29.639 and determined or look at into determining whether or not 289 00:12:29.759 --> 00:12:32.080 to raise or lower maintain interest rates where they are 290 00:12:32.919 --> 00:12:37.159 labor statistics. I understand Donald Trump fired the label Labor 291 00:12:37.200 --> 00:12:41.080 Statistics Commissioner because he wasn't happy over what he described 292 00:12:41.120 --> 00:12:45.559 as the biggest miscalculation in over fifty years. What's the 293 00:12:45.639 --> 00:12:48.159 story on this one, Brian, Well, yes, we all know. 294 00:12:48.240 --> 00:12:49.840 When you don't like the news, what do you do? 295 00:12:50.039 --> 00:12:53.000 You shoot the messenger because obviously that's the solution to 296 00:12:53.360 --> 00:12:55.879 these types of things. So anyway, yeah, so, as President 297 00:12:55.919 --> 00:12:58.639 Trump just did something no modern president has ever done. 298 00:12:59.200 --> 00:13:02.279 Nobody has ever fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics head 299 00:13:02.840 --> 00:13:04.399 right after a report comes out. 300 00:13:04.600 --> 00:13:05.799 You know, I'm not in love with this. 301 00:13:06.039 --> 00:13:07.840 I'm okay with some of the things we've done to 302 00:13:08.600 --> 00:13:11.600 you know, to change our standing and you know, for example, 303 00:13:11.759 --> 00:13:14.120 force other countries to pay their fair share for NATO 304 00:13:14.200 --> 00:13:16.600 support and even up on tariffs all that stuff. I've 305 00:13:16.639 --> 00:13:19.759 been feeling like overdue moves, but stuff like this to me, 306 00:13:20.000 --> 00:13:24.440 just completely undermines his legacy. He's reacting to the July 307 00:13:24.639 --> 00:13:27.840 report showed only seventy three thousand new jobs. That was 308 00:13:27.919 --> 00:13:31.120 far below expectations. But the bigger point, Remember the Bureau 309 00:13:31.120 --> 00:13:33.879 of Labor Statistics. What they do is they gather surveys. 310 00:13:33.919 --> 00:13:36.120 They literally ask companies how many people did you hire 311 00:13:36.360 --> 00:13:38.480 this month? And companies will respond, And of course, just 312 00:13:38.559 --> 00:13:40.679 like any other survey you get via email, sometimes you 313 00:13:40.720 --> 00:13:43.600 respond right away, usually you don't, but anyway, it takes 314 00:13:43.639 --> 00:13:45.919 a long time. Over the over the ensuing three months 315 00:13:45.960 --> 00:13:49.879 of sending that out, they will continue to receive responses. 316 00:13:49.440 --> 00:13:49.919 To this survey. 317 00:13:50.039 --> 00:13:52.000 Yep, that's where those revisions come from. It's not the 318 00:13:52.080 --> 00:13:55.600 Bureau of Labor Statistics screwing things up. It's companies just 319 00:13:55.759 --> 00:13:59.320 not responding in a timely manner to government surveys, which 320 00:13:59.320 --> 00:14:01.720 you know you can't do that anyway. But the news 321 00:14:01.799 --> 00:14:04.519 here as the revision was downward by over a quarter 322 00:14:04.639 --> 00:14:07.080 million jobs. That is a really really big miss. And 323 00:14:07.240 --> 00:14:09.840 rather than deal with the headlines of possible slowing economy, 324 00:14:10.080 --> 00:14:12.159 President Trump just decided that that I was wrong. 325 00:14:12.720 --> 00:14:16.519 Well, and let me get this straight. If they came 326 00:14:16.600 --> 00:14:18.840 out with a number that was accurate, Let's say, you know, 327 00:14:18.919 --> 00:14:20.919 there's a you know, a gazillion jobs out there and 328 00:14:21.039 --> 00:14:26.000 the unemployment rate went down, that would result in the 329 00:14:26.120 --> 00:14:29.600 Fed not wanting to lower interest rates. Right, So didn't 330 00:14:29.639 --> 00:14:33.440 her initial number sort of bolster the argument for lowering 331 00:14:33.559 --> 00:14:35.639 interest rates or if I if I might confuse. 332 00:14:35.360 --> 00:14:38.080 On this, Brian, No, And that's the slightly frustrating part, 333 00:14:38.120 --> 00:14:39.679 Like we were talking about earlier this morning. You know, 334 00:14:39.759 --> 00:14:42.440 the FED chair pal definitely wants He's had a history 335 00:14:42.480 --> 00:14:43.799 and most of the FED chairs have a history of 336 00:14:43.879 --> 00:14:46.519 wanting to rely on data and not gut feel when 337 00:14:46.559 --> 00:14:50.399 it comes to making these huge interest rates decisions. So yes, 338 00:14:50.559 --> 00:14:52.519 the the the actual numbers that were coming out, even 339 00:14:52.559 --> 00:14:54.799 these revisions are speaking toward Yeah, it's probably time to 340 00:14:54.840 --> 00:14:57.679 lower interest rates because the economy is definitely slowing and whoops, 341 00:14:57.720 --> 00:14:59.720 it may be slowing a little faster. Were stomping on 342 00:14:59.759 --> 00:15:02.080 the brain a little fashion that we wanted to. That 343 00:15:02.279 --> 00:15:04.679 is a recipe for Yep, it's time to lower interest rates. 344 00:15:04.720 --> 00:15:06.879 And that's why I feel pretty confident that September is 345 00:15:06.960 --> 00:15:08.480 going to involve a rate cut. 346 00:15:08.799 --> 00:15:11.399 But it also speaks to I think it's the it's 347 00:15:11.480 --> 00:15:12.399 the trajectory. 348 00:15:12.519 --> 00:15:15.720 It's how quickly those revisions came down That angered the 349 00:15:15.759 --> 00:15:17.799 president because it makes it feel like the economy is 350 00:15:17.840 --> 00:15:19.879 going over a cliff as opposed to just slowing down. 351 00:15:20.039 --> 00:15:23.320 Well, and that's bad for politics. Goodness great, that is 352 00:15:23.360 --> 00:15:26.240 bad visibility, bad optics. First, great, job numbers would result 353 00:15:26.320 --> 00:15:30.600 are good for your politics. See my plot, my plan, 354 00:15:30.799 --> 00:15:33.720 my economic policy. Everything's working. Look at the numbers. But 355 00:15:34.519 --> 00:15:37.200 then you start screaming about lowering interest rates. That flies 356 00:15:37.240 --> 00:15:39.240 in the face of the success you're having and the 357 00:15:39.320 --> 00:15:41.799 opportunity for interest for inflation. 358 00:15:42.080 --> 00:15:44.320 So yeah, this president is not very tolerant of really 359 00:15:44.360 --> 00:15:48.840 any negative headlines at all. So fortunately the market seems 360 00:15:48.879 --> 00:15:50.919 to see through at the The market came down a 361 00:15:50.960 --> 00:15:53.159 little bit on Friday, and as we're sitting here right now, 362 00:15:53.279 --> 00:15:55.279 futures are up about a half point or so. 363 00:15:56.000 --> 00:15:57.799 So the market does tend to see through this, but. 364 00:15:58.159 --> 00:16:00.840 It won't tolerate it very long. The market absolutely hates 365 00:16:01.320 --> 00:16:05.519 the overall stock market is wonderful at sniffing out baloney, 366 00:16:05.919 --> 00:16:08.759 and it will come through there. If we're really trying 367 00:16:08.759 --> 00:16:10.759 to tout that the economy is wonderful, but we're hemorrhaging 368 00:16:10.879 --> 00:16:11.600 jobs left and right. 369 00:16:11.639 --> 00:16:13.279 You will see it in the stock market a right. 370 00:16:13.360 --> 00:16:18.559 But the late Burea Labor Statistics Commissioner Eric Macintarfer's calculations 371 00:16:18.600 --> 00:16:21.480 which resulted in her firing. It's regularly, I mean you 372 00:16:21.559 --> 00:16:23.240 said it. It's want to sort of emphasize it. It's 373 00:16:23.399 --> 00:16:26.519 normal for them to provide revised figures, maybe a little 374 00:16:26.519 --> 00:16:28.960 bit after, maybe a long after, but they always look 375 00:16:29.080 --> 00:16:32.039 back and correct the record based upon the actual evidence 376 00:16:32.080 --> 00:16:34.960 when it finally comes in. So this is not unusual, No. 377 00:16:35.080 --> 00:16:35.440 Not at all. 378 00:16:35.639 --> 00:16:37.440 And in fact, I went back to the past couple 379 00:16:37.480 --> 00:16:41.120 of presidents. So the Trump's first administration for twenty seventeen 380 00:16:41.200 --> 00:16:45.639 to twenty twenty, the average revision was an average increase 381 00:16:45.679 --> 00:16:47.919 of seventy three thousand jobs. That sounds like a big 382 00:16:48.000 --> 00:16:50.240 number on an absolute terms, but it's relatively small when 383 00:16:50.279 --> 00:16:52.639 you're talking about three hundred million people in this country. 384 00:16:52.720 --> 00:16:52.840 Right. 385 00:16:53.000 --> 00:16:57.080 But when during those revisions at that time, generally speaking, 386 00:16:57.159 --> 00:17:01.159 the bias was up. Those revisions usually or positive. Under 387 00:17:01.200 --> 00:17:04.160 Biden from twenty one to twenty four, the more recent 388 00:17:04.319 --> 00:17:06.960 ones about one hundred thousand jobs on average, and usually 389 00:17:07.039 --> 00:17:09.279 they were in a more downward direction, and Obama was 390 00:17:09.359 --> 00:17:10.160 kind of somewhere in the middle. 391 00:17:10.160 --> 00:17:11.799 But anyway, the point is not the numbers. 392 00:17:11.839 --> 00:17:14.200 The point is that these revisions have happened, and do happen, 393 00:17:14.279 --> 00:17:18.200 and always will happen. The head of the BLS gets 394 00:17:18.240 --> 00:17:20.519 two days to do whatever he or she is going 395 00:17:20.599 --> 00:17:22.720 to do with the data. They don't get to audit it, 396 00:17:22.759 --> 00:17:24.440 and all that has to come out as basically as 397 00:17:24.480 --> 00:17:27.440 soon as it as soon as it appears, so there's 398 00:17:27.480 --> 00:17:29.359 not much chance that she would have had to manipulate it. 399 00:17:29.400 --> 00:17:31.400 I'm gonna go ahead and throw out there that there's 400 00:17:31.400 --> 00:17:34.079 a zero chance that Trump gave any time to look 401 00:17:34.119 --> 00:17:36.400