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Speaker 1: We've got lots of primetime games, barking dogs of course,

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the Steam report from VR, the deli, that doorbells ringing,

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and we got a stinky sandwich for you guys.

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Speaker 2: Best bets up next on bet on It.

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Speaker 1: Kelly Stewart here VR front and center, Marco DiAngelo on

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the right.

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Speaker 2: Let's get right into these games.

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Speaker 1: And I know there's Saturday primetime games, but we're gonna

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skip over that. We're gonna stick with our original three

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Thursday Night Football, Sunday Night Football, and Monday Night Football.

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I'm gonna go first on Thursday Night. The Rams are

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a one and a half point underdog at Seattle forty

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three and a half.

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Speaker 2: All right, guys, I'm going to tease the Rams. There's

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my handicap.

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Speaker 1: No, the teasers have been doing very well and that

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is going to be part of my play.

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Speaker 2: But kind of have to wonder here, what did we

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see last week?

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Speaker 1: Well saw the Rams having a monster second half led

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by Pokin Nikua over the Lions.

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Speaker 2: And what did Sam Darnald do?

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Speaker 3: Ugh?

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Speaker 1: Whoof they gave six field goals to be a Philip

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Rivers led Colts team. Now they're a one and a

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half point home favorite kind of makes you think this

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might be a by low spot if you will on Seattle.

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We know the last time these two played, the Rams

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squeaked out a win at home twenty one at nineteen,

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But the real story was Seattle out gaining the Rams

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by one.

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Speaker 2: Hundred and sixty five yards.

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Speaker 1: They held twenty six to twelve edge in first downs.

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You want to know why they lost that game because

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Sam Darnald turned into a pumpkin and threw four interceptions

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and they went one for four in the red zone.

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I don't think that's gonna happen again. I do like

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Seattle here this week, and I'm gonna throw away last

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week because, like Marco D'Angelo said, that was a nothing game.

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It was between big games. That game meant essentially nothing.

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So sure they went through the motions as a two

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touchdown favorite, but a lot of teams are gonna do

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that over the next couple of weeks. I think Marco's

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gonna kind of break down some of that in his

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breakdown here as well.

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Speaker 2: I think Sam Darnold has.

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Speaker 1: A better game, and I trust Seattle's defense to get

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the job here. Don excuse me, job done here at

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home on Thursday night in a very important NFC West game.

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I'll lay the one and a half with Seattle. Let's

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just hope they can't win that game by more than

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a touchdown and we hit both sides. Marco D'Angel is

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gonna take over Sunday Night football. New England is a

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three point underdog at Baltimore forty eight and a half.

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Speaker 2: Marco, we were.

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Speaker 1: Talking off air, a lot of us are kicking ourselves

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for not taking Baltimore last week, and boy, oh boy,

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did all the things that we said about that team

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just magically disappear. Everybody looked healthy, they played a hard

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fought game. Now they're back here at home in a

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game that does mean something.

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Speaker 2: So break this one down for us.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Kelly, Well, I did have Baltimore last week, But

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what I was kicking myself about was I made it

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my four percent game of the week. It came very

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close to being a five percent. But you know, we

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don't toss those out all the time, and that's why

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we have that forty and seventeen run on those. But

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the knee jerk reaction this week is going to be.

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Everybody saw the New England game last week, and even

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though New England lost. They lost looking good when you

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look at the final score. It was a thirty five

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thirty one shootout, and you say, hey, you know what,

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they're going to bounce back this week. They've been good

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all year. But yes, they've been good all year, but

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they haven't been believed even though they've had the best

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record in the AFC. Everybody says it's a young team

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and they've played a soft schedule, and we saw Bufalo

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beat them last week. But the narrative is it was

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twenty one nothing New England. Buffalo came all the way

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back and won that game. Might you know, I'll tell

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you exactly. My thoughts is that game's going on? When

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New England went up twenty one to nothing, I was

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in a bar with a plate of chicken wings in

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front of me and I literally had to wipe the

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wing sauce off to go to my iPad and see

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who they were playing next week. I said, I'm going

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to be going against New England next week because this

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was their statement game. This was the you know, to

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prove everybody we are the new kids on the block,

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We're the king of the AFC East, and I'm going

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to go against them so they were playing Baltimore, I said, perfect.

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Then the collapse started and I'm saying, oh, man, really

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they're going to lose this game. They ended up losing it,

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So now I'm saying, wow, I got to back off that.

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And then I go, oh, no, I don't. This is

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the poster child for lose the same game twice because

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they were that close to having the division clinched last

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week they beat Buffalo, they owned the tiebreaker, they have

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a monster lead in the AFC East, and they would

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be looking at the number one seed. Instead, they lost

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that game. Buffalo's still there, and even though they'll probably

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still win the divisions, they got to have Buffalo living

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rent free in their minds. I think they have the

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carryover this week. I think Buffalo or excuse me, Baltimore

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will get the job done. Baltimore played a perfect game

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last week, probably their best game of the season. They

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took care of Cincinnati and the Joe Burrow. Remember just

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a couple of weeks ago, on Thanksgiving Night, Cincinnati went

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into Baltimore and beat them, but it was five turnovers

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that beat Baltimore that night. The next week, Baltimore lost

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to Pittsburgh in a key game, but they out gain

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Pits by over one hundred yards and they had a

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touchdown controversial touchdown reversed in the final three minutes. They

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very easily could have and should have beaten Pittsburgh. They

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got to take care of business, Baltimore because they got

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to stay within one game of Pittsburgh to make that

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last game of the season when they go to Pittsburgh

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for all of the marbles to win the division, because

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that's the only way they're going to get in. They're

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not going to get in as a wild card. I

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like Baltimore here. They take care of business. Let's go

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ahead and lay the three with Baltimore. I think you

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see a big effort on Sunday Night Football.

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Speaker 1: V Are you been doing some YouTube shorts as we

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like to call them over here on the Wager Talking

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YouTube channel regarding power ratings here, So I'm generally curious

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how you have these two teams power rated. Well, I

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only care about one of them because I have them

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twenty to one to win the Super Bowl. Monday Night Football,

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San fran minus six at Indianapolis forty six and a half.

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Speaker 2: You gave elt Seattle last week. You said, Hey, guess

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what Daniel Jones and his leg are not worth this

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many points. Now we got the Niners who.

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Speaker 1: Struggle to put together back to back wins and are

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very frustrating on the road and basically a meaningless game.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I got San Francisco number ten on my power ratings.

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I had Indianapolis number thirteen on my power ratings, so

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very close. And Indianapolis actually has the tougher strength of

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schedule and the more efficient offense. San Francisco's got the

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more efficient defense and obviously not Philip Rivers at quarterback.

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That's the situation we're looking at now. I got it

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always to let you know, as I before I start.

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Here's where we're sitting at college football thirty five and

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eleven on bed on It, NFL twenty six, eighteen and one.

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That's a combined sixty one twenty nine and one overall

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sixty seven percent on bet on It over this season

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for my TV game, I haven't gotten to the window yet.

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You know how I've done on these Sunday nights and

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Monday night footballs twenty three to ten over the last

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five or six weeks. I've been able to do some

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solid confirmation based on how the market reacts because these

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primetime games are different. You have one game attracting all

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the volume. It's not spread out, and because of that,

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books are forced sometimes to adjust for the risk, and

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that creates an inefficient number. Now I'm going to look

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to the total in this game because we have some

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recency bias to take advantage of. First, you have San

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Francisco coming in off a thirty seven point offensive performance.

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In fact, they've scored twenty six or more in four

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of their last five games. In fact, sorry, five out

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of their last six games, so the offense has been

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clicking and they're a top ten offense. Indianapolis also, like

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I said, top ten offense. They were only able to

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put up sixteen last week and actually havingt cracked twenty

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in three straight games. But the public's betting this one

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over and I think the totals a little bit too high.

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And here's why. When you look at why Indy kept

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it close against Seattle. Rivers didn't have a phenomenal game,

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he just didn't lose it. He had a seventy three

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point one QBR. They were able to rush the football

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thirty times, they handed the ball off for almost one

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hundred yards, but it was the defense that held Seattle.

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They held them the six field goals number one, so

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they kept them out of the end zone. They held

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them the fifty yards rushing and only two hundred and

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sixty yards all right. So it was the defense of

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Indianapolis that knew they had to show up. And I

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think you're going to see the exact same type of

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effort from the Colts defense this week. And I don't

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think that San Francisco is going to be able to

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put up as many points. Flip side of that coin.

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Like I said, Rivers didn't go out there. He wasn't phenomenal,

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He just didn't go out there and lose the game.

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Indy needs to try to keep this close with a

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chance to win at the end. The last thing you

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want is to get into any kind of shootout, any

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kind of position where your offense now has to play

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from behind. So I think a lot slower paced game

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from Indianapolis. And I like the under. It was forty seven,

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forty seven and a half. You saw some sharp money

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come in on under. I agree with that move. Again,

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having gotten to the window, don't want to paint myself

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in a corner between now and Monday, But I do

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think there's some value on the under, especially when you

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look at what the totals have been for both these

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teams over the last couple of weeks. The market has

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adjusted and corrected itself, and I think now it's just

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going too high the other way.

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Speaker 1: All right, you mentioned some of these moves, and that's

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kind of what's made you famous here o. Our wager

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talk over the last few years is really sharing these

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sharp plays. Tell everybody about the Steam sheet VR, where

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they can get it, who has access to it, and

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of course.

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Speaker 2: This week's Steam report.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, all my subscribers already get it. The long term

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guys and I joked about it since Thanksgiving and since

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we came up with this that we're now fishing with dynamite, like,

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I'm able to really stay so selective with my premiums

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and still share a ton of solid, sharp winning information

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that I actually want to see do well because it

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comes from the accounts I have a percentage of. But

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a lot of you guys are excellent in hand in decapping,

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have your own opinions, and this is gonna help guide you.

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Perfect example, there's over fifteen plus NFL moves in there already.

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It's Wednesday. Those have been in there since like Monday Tuesday,

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so you get way ahead of the market, helps you

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confirm why things move, and later I even go in

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there and update when we come back the other way,

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or if we even confirm one of them into a

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premium play. So I mean, it's just so much information

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and almost priceless, to be honest with you, and we're

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giving it away to subscribers. It comes with your subscription

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for the long term guys, and I try to put

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the package up every single day. Here's some of the

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steam moves that are on there. Can't give them all because,

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like I said, there's fifteen plus. Here's a couple sides

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and then a few totals one oh five Philadelphia minus

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four and a half and five obviously the look Ahead

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one ten, Saints minus two and a half and minus three.

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That was my five percent last week, Go Saints one

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fourteen Baltimore. Marco touched on Baltimore. They're at that key

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number of faith because they did a Trent sharp money

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at the opener and then a double digit dog for

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you Tennessee at plus ten and a half. Then they

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hit it at the look Ahead obviously down the four

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and a half and four total go one seventeen under,

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look ahead forty and a half case Tennessee then followed

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through and went under through thirty eight and a half,

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and then Dallas and the Chargers. Looks like they're getting

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out ahead of the public here.

243
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Speaker 4: Uh.

244
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Speaker 3: One nineteen over, forty seven and a half and forty

245
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eight and a half Chargers and Dallas. So uh, that's

246
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some of the sharp stuff already for some day's action.

247
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Speaker 2: All right, let's get into some of those barking dogs.

248
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Speaker 1: Of course, this is my favorite, but our dogs are

249
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pretty puny this week. Marco, Barco, you got the smallest one,

250
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so you're going first.

251
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Speaker 4: Againks Kelly, I got the smallest one. All right, We're

252
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gonna go with Arizona plus the two and a half

253
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against Atlanta. Atlanta has the advantage of having three extra

254
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days because they did play on Thursday night last week.

255
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But here's the thing. This is a five and nine

256
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team that has nothing to play for. I tell you

257
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over and over again, when you get to this time

258
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of the season, teams that are out of the playoffs

259
00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:28,360
are gonna show up for two types of games. It's

260
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gonna be a division game where they can play spoiler

261
00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:35,639
or it's going to be a standalone TV game. Well,

262
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Atlanta checked both of those boxes last week on Thursday

263
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Night football against Division rival Tampa Bay, who was deadlocked

264
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with Carolina for the Division league. What Atlanta do. They

265
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went into Tampa last week on primetime and beat the Bucks.

266
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This is a flat spot for Atlanta. This week they

267
00:14:56,080 --> 00:14:59,039
travel for a second week in a row. They have

268
00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:02,879
the number one unseed in the NFC, the Rams coming

269
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to their house next week. When oh, on Monday Night football. Yeah,

270
00:15:08,519 --> 00:15:10,360
you want to talk about a sandwich, Well, it's a

271
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primetime sandwich from Thursday to Monday night football. This is

272
00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:17,399
just a bad spot for them. Arizona, I know has

273
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look terrible, but Arizona, you know, they faced some good

274
00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:25,440
teams the last two weeks, getting blown out. They face

275
00:15:25,519 --> 00:15:28,240
the Rams, and they faced Houston. One of the most

276
00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:31,200
explosive offenses in the Rams and one of the best

277
00:15:31,240 --> 00:15:36,279
defenses in the league. Houston. Jacoby Brissett, He's been putting

278
00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:39,200
up big numbers in the passing game. The running game

279
00:15:39,279 --> 00:15:42,519
has struggled, but in fairness, three of their last four

280
00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:47,159
games they face Jacksonville, the Rams in Houston. All three

281
00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:49,720
of those teams are in the top ten at stopping

282
00:15:49,759 --> 00:15:53,799
the run. I'm gonna go ahead Atlanta's bottom ten stopping

283
00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:56,320
the run. I think Arizona will have a little more

284
00:15:56,399 --> 00:15:59,480
balanced this week. They're gonna get the job done. Give

285
00:15:59,519 --> 00:16:02,000
me air zone plus the points. I don't think you're

286
00:16:02,039 --> 00:16:05,480
gonna need the points. This is a dog that's gonna bark, all.

287
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Speaker 3: Right, VR.

288
00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:09,200
Speaker 1: You guys mentioned off air while we were getting ready

289
00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:12,360
to start the show that you both liked this team,

290
00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:15,720
and I thought, all right, last week, you and I

291
00:16:15,759 --> 00:16:18,360
both liked green Bay and they had many opportunities to

292
00:16:18,399 --> 00:16:21,480
win that game in Denver. But Denver keeps finding ways

293
00:16:21,519 --> 00:16:23,840
to win at home. Why are you stepping in front

294
00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:24,600
of the freight train.

295
00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:28,519
Speaker 3: In my defense, I did not release a premium the

296
00:16:28,559 --> 00:16:33,600
subscribers on Green Bay. I couldn't confirm it. Again, I

297
00:16:33,679 --> 00:16:36,519
was leaning that way. I like that side is also,

298
00:16:36,759 --> 00:16:40,039
I just couldn't pulled the trigger. So I'm glad I

299
00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:43,159
was able to stay off it for my subscribers, and

300
00:16:43,879 --> 00:16:46,879
Denver got the win that helps us and gives us

301
00:16:46,919 --> 00:16:51,120
that extra value on Jacksonville. Here's the bottom line. Let

302
00:16:51,159 --> 00:16:54,919
me do that that UH and power rating really quick

303
00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:57,919
and share that with you. These teams are very close.

304
00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:02,399
In fact, Jacksonville is is three spots ahead of Denver

305
00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:08,680
on my power ratings, even though Denver has the better

306
00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:12,960
record and on a neutral field, I would actually make

307
00:17:13,079 --> 00:17:17,319
Jacksonville about a point and a half favorites. I give

308
00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:21,240
Denver two points for home field advantage. So this one's

309
00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:24,640
a pick them, with Denver maybe a minus one fifteen

310
00:17:25,039 --> 00:17:28,680
one twenty favorite at the most. So being able to

311
00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:33,160
get Jacksonville at plus three that key number of three.

312
00:17:33,240 --> 00:17:35,400
In fact, I took it up to three and a half,

313
00:17:35,839 --> 00:17:40,400
gave it out through subscribers because it's discounted at three

314
00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:43,160
and a half as a four percent move, and I

315
00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:46,000
am gonna sprinkle that money line. I'm just waiting to

316
00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:48,480
get plus one point fifty because they got to win

317
00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:50,839
this game four out of ten times. That's the break even.

318
00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:53,799
And that's definitely doable because I do think I have

319
00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:56,279
the better football team number one power rating wise, I

320
00:17:56,319 --> 00:17:58,720
have them above and here's why. I have a top

321
00:17:58,799 --> 00:18:03,079
ten offense going against offense that's not even in the

322
00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:07,240
top twenty. More importantly, I have a defense in Jacksonville

323
00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:11,640
that's just outside the top ten against the Denver defense

324
00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:16,880
that's just inside the top ten. But here's the biggest differentiator. Denver.

325
00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:21,079
Only one team has a weaker strength of schedule than Denver.

326
00:18:21,599 --> 00:18:24,799
They had the thirty first toughest strength of schedule. So

327
00:18:24,839 --> 00:18:27,960
you should be twelve and two. That's it. The reason

328
00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:30,599
you're six and seven and one ATS is because you

329
00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:33,240
haven't been able to helperform the betting market. The reason

330
00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:37,559
you haven't done that is because you're as phony as

331
00:18:37,599 --> 00:18:40,480
a three dollars bill. You're a phony twelve and two

332
00:18:40,559 --> 00:18:44,680
football team with mediocre stats at best and a very

333
00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:50,039
very easy strength of schedule that happens to win a

334
00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:54,640
bunch of one score games, and eventually that luck runs

335
00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:59,079
out because it's just not sustainable. It's not Jacksonville comes

336
00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:02,960
in here, hoh. Usually, here's the thing. When a team

337
00:19:03,799 --> 00:19:06,880
wins five in a row, covers five in a row,

338
00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:12,359
comes in, haven't scored thirty six points, forty eight points, dude,

339
00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:15,640
I'm looking to fade them nine out of ten times.

340
00:19:15,839 --> 00:19:20,680
They are so overpriced I'm forced to fade them. No,

341
00:19:21,079 --> 00:19:24,279
because luckily that who I just read off was the

342
00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:28,359
Jacksonville Jaguars who covered five to three, who just scored

343
00:19:28,799 --> 00:19:31,720
eighty four points, over their last two games and held

344
00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:34,519
their opponents the thirty nine. Yeah, I get that team

345
00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:39,079
at a discount because the Denver Broncos have been so

346
00:19:39,279 --> 00:19:44,160
red hot straight up, and they come off beating a

347
00:19:44,319 --> 00:19:47,880
very good Green Bay Packer team. The recency bias on

348
00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:50,440
my side. Give me the Jags plus the three to

349
00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:52,920
three and a half. That's a gift. Sprinkle the money

350
00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:54,160
line because they win the game.

351
00:19:55,039 --> 00:19:56,640
Speaker 1: All right, another team that I think is gonna win

352
00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:58,880
the game, and that's why they're in the barking dog segment.

353
00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:01,000
But I also think they're gonna the NFC South. And

354
00:20:01,039 --> 00:20:04,119
if you guys, remember I told you back in August

355
00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:06,839
everybody wants the Bucks. I said, no, no, no, give me

356
00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:10,680
the Carolina Panthers to win the NFC South. And it

357
00:20:10,759 --> 00:20:14,279
starts with this game right here, because they play this

358
00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:15,920
week and then they turn around to play each other

359
00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:16,920
again in week eighteen.

360
00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:20,279
Speaker 2: I guess the NFL couldn't have scripted it any better.

361
00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:23,359
Speaker 1: That being said, Tampa Bay one in five straight up

362
00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:26,119
oh and six against the spread over the last six games.

363
00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:28,279
Speaker 2: The bottom has fallen out.

364
00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:31,559
Speaker 1: Sure, the Bucks have a little bit of extra time

365
00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:34,200
to prep for this one because they got their asses

366
00:20:34,279 --> 00:20:37,759
kicked by the Falcons on Thursday night. The Panthers also

367
00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:41,119
blew an opportunity to take the lead in the NFC

368
00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:44,359
South because they lost in overtime to New Orleans last week.

369
00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:49,480
But I do think this Tampa Bay team is just

370
00:20:49,519 --> 00:20:52,480
not built to blow anybody out. They're not built to

371
00:20:52,519 --> 00:20:55,279
win games by margin. They've only won two games by

372
00:20:55,319 --> 00:20:59,200
more than three points this season. And Bryce Young taking

373
00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:02,400
over that Panthers offense back in the middle of last

374
00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:06,400
season as a home underdog eight and one against the

375
00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:09,640
spread with six outright upset wins.

376
00:21:09,799 --> 00:21:10,799
Speaker 2: That is the name of the game.

377
00:21:10,799 --> 00:21:14,039
Speaker 1: Here in the Barking Dog segment, give me Carolina on

378
00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:17,559
the money line, maybe if you use them for Survivor

379
00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:23,359
this week. Marco DiAngelo, we'll see Marco's Deli is up next,

380
00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:27,440
and Marco has been doing well, nothing short of phenomenal

381
00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:32,319
forty and thirty on the season. You're betting one units,

382
00:21:32,319 --> 00:21:35,720
that's ten units by just getting Marco's free Deli right

383
00:21:35,759 --> 00:21:38,519
here on the wager talking YouTube channel. Marco, let everybody

384
00:21:38,559 --> 00:21:40,839
know what's going to be on deck for the deli

385
00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:43,359
this week when the video is gonna come out, and

386
00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:43,839
who you.

387
00:21:43,839 --> 00:21:47,279
Speaker 4: Like, Yeah, it'll be out late on Thursday. And if

388
00:21:47,279 --> 00:21:50,400
you're you know, wager Talk insideer, remember you'll get it

389
00:21:50,519 --> 00:21:54,039
before everybody else, So be sure to check out the

390
00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:58,440
wager Talk Insider program. And Kelly, we're looking at this

391
00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:01,160
one here. We got to see it. Which spot. We

392
00:22:01,279 --> 00:22:04,599
got the Giants in Minnesota. Minnesota's coming off back to

393
00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:08,240
back wins, the last one being on Sunday Night Football

394
00:22:08,279 --> 00:22:11,799
against the Cowboys. Now coming off that big Sunday Night

395
00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:14,519
football win, they got to travel for a second week

396
00:22:14,519 --> 00:22:17,599
in a row. But look who they got on deck.

397
00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:22,400
They got the Lions and Minnesota. You know, disappointing season,

398
00:22:22,799 --> 00:22:26,240
they've had a bunch of injuries, but they can play

399
00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:29,519
spoiler next week to the Lions. And wouldn't they love

400
00:22:29,599 --> 00:22:31,480
to stick it to the Lions, the team that they

401
00:22:31,559 --> 00:22:34,599
battled right to the final week of the season last

402
00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:38,240
year for the division title. Yeah, they want to play

403
00:22:38,279 --> 00:22:43,519
spoiler next week. Washington. I know they have not looked good.

404
00:22:43,599 --> 00:22:46,440
They've lost eight in a row, but in fairness, you

405
00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:49,400
know they've had their own injuries. They finally made it

406
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:53,480
official they're shutting Daniels down for the season, so we

407
00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:55,240
don't have to worry. Is he gonna play. Is he

408
00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:57,279
not going to play? And if he does play, should

409
00:22:57,279 --> 00:22:59,920
he even be playing because he's playing hurt. We're gonna

410
00:23:00,039 --> 00:23:05,119
at Marcus Mariota. But that eight game losing streak, if

411
00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:09,079
the season ended today, six of those eight teams in

412
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:12,519
that eight game losing streak would be in the playoffs.

413
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:15,440
One of the other ones that's not currently in the

414
00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:18,440
playoffs would have been the Lions game in which the

415
00:23:18,519 --> 00:23:22,759
Giants went to Detroit and did everything but win that game.

416
00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:26,079
Is they blew a big fourth quarter lead. This is

417
00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:28,400
a spot where I think they get right at home

418
00:23:28,559 --> 00:23:35,440
against Minnesota. And I trust Jackson Dart more than I

419
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:38,960
trust JJ McCarthy. You know, I don't know what it

420
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:41,160
is about McCarthy, just the you know, the way he

421
00:23:41,279 --> 00:23:43,759
show voted going into for the touchdown. And this is

422
00:23:43,759 --> 00:23:47,119
the guy that's done absolutely nothing so far in his

423
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:51,119
young career, and man, is he cocky. I like Jackson

424
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:54,200
Dart better. I am gonna go ahead take them, give

425
00:23:54,279 --> 00:23:59,279
me the points again. Minnesota. Yeah, their defense can carry

426
00:23:59,319 --> 00:24:03,400
them some, but they're not playing indoors this week. They're

427
00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:08,119
playing outdoors against the Giants cold weather. I'll go ahead

428
00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:13,279
take the Giants for my sandwich spot in. Of course,

429
00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:15,039
we're sprinkling on the giants.

430
00:24:15,279 --> 00:24:19,880
Speaker 1: All right, let's get into those best bets. VR, you're

431
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:22,640
gonna be up first, and well, this one should come

432
00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:24,200
as no surprise to any of you guys if you

433
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:27,839
guys know VR, we're faining the narratives, we're bucking the trends,

434
00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:29,839
we're going straight power ratings.

435
00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:34,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, and I love this play. Best bet record

436
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:39,000
on the show is six and nine dog and best

437
00:24:39,079 --> 00:24:43,440
bet I've usually tried to use premiums. Those two combined

438
00:24:43,839 --> 00:24:48,400
are sixteen and thirteen with a push, So that's fifty

439
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:51,519
five percent pretty much what we should be in the

440
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:56,079
NFL if you're winning again. So I don't want people

441
00:24:56,079 --> 00:24:58,319
to think like this is his best best bet, because

442
00:24:58,319 --> 00:25:01,920
I'm firing another five percent on that's the best best bet.

443
00:25:02,079 --> 00:25:04,039
But I love this side. This is a four percent

444
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:07,720
two subscribers, and that's the Kansas City Chiefs forgiving it

445
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:09,759
to us for free. How can I not bet it?

446
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:14,079
Bottom line? We know what the look ahead was. Fortunately,

447
00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:17,599
John Murray and the guy's over at Westgate don't keep

448
00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:20,000
it a secret. They let us know well in advance,

449
00:25:20,279 --> 00:25:22,920
and they had this one up at minus ten and

450
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:26,200
a half. That's seven and a half half point difference.

451
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:28,599
And we get to go through the key number of seven,

452
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:30,599
We get to go through the key number of six

453
00:25:31,319 --> 00:25:35,519
down to three through a four even And why why

454
00:25:36,039 --> 00:25:39,920
because Mahomes isn't playing well? What do we know? We

455
00:25:40,079 --> 00:25:42,559
got to look at what the dropoff is from number

456
00:25:42,559 --> 00:25:47,599
one to number two. Like if it was Tom Brady

457
00:25:47,599 --> 00:25:51,839
and his prime, but behind him was Rogers in his prime.

458
00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:52,799
What's the drop off?

459
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:53,359
Speaker 4: Right?

460
00:25:53,839 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 3: So you got to compare the number one to who's

461
00:25:56,720 --> 00:26:01,160
stepping in, and value over replacement player is also a

462
00:26:01,279 --> 00:26:06,319
very high correlation to winning, just like passing success rate.

463
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:08,880
It's not as high of a correlation, but it's up there.

464
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:14,640
It's a very good method if you're able to find

465
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:18,440
those overvalued undervalued spots. And here's why this is so

466
00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:24,039
undervalued because when you look at Mahomes. Okay, again, it's

467
00:26:24,079 --> 00:26:25,720
not a knock on Mahomes. He's a Hall of Fame

468
00:26:25,799 --> 00:26:28,799
quarterback and we know that with all everything he's done.

469
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:31,240
But when I look over his last ten ten games,

470
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:36,640
his QBR is eighty nine point six. Eighty nine point six.

471
00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:42,240
Now that's over this season, Okay, So who's coming in

472
00:26:42,279 --> 00:26:46,319
for him Minshew. Right, Minshew has a lot of experience,

473
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:51,960
a lot of starting experience, been at multiple teams, and

474
00:26:52,559 --> 00:26:59,000
let's look at his QBR rating, right, he hasn't started.

475
00:26:59,559 --> 00:27:02,920
He has started. So we got to go past another year,

476
00:27:03,039 --> 00:27:05,680
another year. Well, I go back to twenty twenty four

477
00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:09,880
twenty five in Vegas and eighty one twenty three, twenty

478
00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:12,799
four eighty four point six. I go back to twenty two,

479
00:27:12,799 --> 00:27:15,880
twenty three eighty three point four. Ur, I go back

480
00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:18,920
a little further one oh four point eight, Like they're

481
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:22,920
all up there above eighties. So where's the drop off

482
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:30,440
in quarterback based on statistics of Mahomes this year compared

483
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:34,759
to a big sample size for Minshew. It isn't that big.

484
00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:39,839
And I expect again there's gonna be a drop off Minshew's.

485
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:42,839
I'm not saying Minshew is Mahomes or is playing as

486
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:45,000
well as Mahomes is gonna play as well as Mahomes

487
00:27:45,039 --> 00:27:47,240
can do what Mahomes can do. What I'm saying is

488
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:52,720
production wise, production wise, over this last ten games of

489
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:57,079
this season, it hasn't been the Mahomes. That's the Hall

490
00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:59,559
of Fame Mahomes. That's just the truth. That's why Kansas

491
00:27:59,599 --> 00:28:02,240
City's not making the playoffs this year, so I don't

492
00:28:02,279 --> 00:28:05,279
think the dropoffs warranted. Kind of like I talked about

493
00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:08,599
last week in Indianapolis, this is the Tennessee Titans we're

494
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:12,240
talking about. Okay, they have zero home wins. Zero that's

495
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:14,920
how many times they've beaten a team at home. Okay,

496
00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:21,160
they statistically twenty. There's only two teams worse than them

497
00:28:21,319 --> 00:28:25,920
offensively and two teams worse than them defensively in efficiency. Now,

498
00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:28,920
granted they had the toughest schedule in all of the NFL,

499
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:32,119
but they've gotten beaten down because of that schedule. I

500
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:35,960
look at Kansas City, it's not the offense's that that's

501
00:28:36,039 --> 00:28:39,519
been their main weapon. In fact, they're not even in

502
00:28:39,559 --> 00:28:44,799
the top fifteen inefficiency offensively. It's the defense that's top five.

503
00:28:45,359 --> 00:28:48,359
And that's what this Tennessee offense has to face. A

504
00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:52,720
top five defense that knows they're starring quarterbacks. Not there.

505
00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:55,880
You think, okay, and you're gonna say, oh right, well

506
00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:58,240
that's the drop off. Maybe you're right, But what about

507
00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:01,759
the motivation these what about the motive? Case's playing for nothing?

508
00:29:02,079 --> 00:29:05,759
What's Tennessee playing for to go to to get home field?

509
00:29:05,799 --> 00:29:10,400
Advantage throughout the playoffs. Are we serious? The pride of

510
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:13,799
not losing the Tennessee is what Kansas City's playing for.

511
00:29:14,359 --> 00:29:17,599
Not losing the Tennessee Titans. Not allowing Tennessee to get

512
00:29:17,599 --> 00:29:20,960
their first home win against Kansas City just because their

513
00:29:21,039 --> 00:29:23,359
quarterback's not playing. I could go on and on and

514
00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:27,359
on and on for reasons why that's so stupid to think. Okay, now,

515
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:30,039
because they're not making the playoffs, they have nothing else

516
00:29:30,039 --> 00:29:32,559
to play for. Well, fortunately they're playing a Tennessee team

517
00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:35,039
that had nothing to play for since Week three of

518
00:29:35,079 --> 00:29:38,799
the season. So let's put that nonsense to bed. And again,

519
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:42,279
Case's got a top fifteen strength of schedule KSE minus three.

520
00:29:42,319 --> 00:29:46,000
That's a give four percent of subscribers already. I don't

521
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:48,519
think that three will be there comes someday. So if

522
00:29:48,559 --> 00:29:50,279
you agree with me, you may want to get down.

523
00:29:51,519 --> 00:29:55,480
Speaker 1: All right, Marco DiAngelo, let me know what you got

524
00:29:55,519 --> 00:29:59,079
going on over at wager talk dot com and tell

525
00:29:59,119 --> 00:30:03,000
me why you like the Lions to bounce back this week.

526
00:30:03,759 --> 00:30:06,519
Speaker 4: All right, Well, I'll promote for Ace as well. We

527
00:30:06,599 --> 00:30:08,960
both got our specials going this week, same deal we

528
00:30:09,039 --> 00:30:12,759
ran last week. The response was great, and if you

529
00:30:12,799 --> 00:30:15,400
haven't taken advantage. We're giving you a second chance to

530
00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:19,400
do so. You can pick up either VR or myself

531
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:24,799
secret link. For me, it's wt dot Buzz, backslash Marco

532
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:28,880
three sixty five. For Ace, just do the same thing

533
00:30:29,119 --> 00:30:32,640
except backslash Ace three sixty five. You can pick up

534
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:37,160
a full season three hundred and sixty five days for

535
00:30:37,359 --> 00:30:41,640
just the eleven eighty eight regular price is nineteen ninety nine.

536
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:44,799
We're doing a special for you guys that are loyal

537
00:30:45,279 --> 00:30:49,720
viewers of bed on it for me for this game, Kelly,

538
00:30:49,799 --> 00:30:52,559
I'm looking at Detroit and this is a bad matchup

539
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:56,119
for the Steelers. They don't have the luxury of facing

540
00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:59,319
a warm weather team in the frigid cold of Pittsburgh

541
00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:02,759
on Monday night football like they did last week. They

542
00:31:02,799 --> 00:31:05,480
got to travel to play Detroit, who was coming off

543
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:08,160
the loss. They're going to be playing in perfect indoor

544
00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:14,039
conditions on a fast track with that Detroit offense. Thetroit

545
00:31:14,119 --> 00:31:17,160
offense is explosive, as we know. They can both run

546
00:31:17,279 --> 00:31:20,599
and pass the football, which is going to exploit a

547
00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:24,079
Steeler defense that is still bad. I know they look

548
00:31:24,119 --> 00:31:27,279
good on Monday Night football, but come on, let's be honest,

549
00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:29,880
what were the Miami Dolphins doing in that game? They

550
00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:34,880
were absolutely lifeless. Even whenever they got a couple scores

551
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:38,119
in the fourth quarter, they were going like they had

552
00:31:38,319 --> 00:31:41,319
like they were ahead instead of behind. They weren't going

553
00:31:41,359 --> 00:31:44,000
with a hurry up offense anything that. It was just

554
00:31:44,039 --> 00:31:47,839
a bad performance by the Dolphins. In the week before

555
00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:51,160
when Pittsburgh beat Baltimore, Baltimore out gained them in that

556
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:54,200
game by over one hundred yards, and we talked about

557
00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:59,119
that controversial touchdown that was overturned on Baltimore. This is

558
00:31:59,279 --> 00:32:02,119
really a meaningless game for the Steelers. And what I

559
00:32:02,240 --> 00:32:05,039
mean by that is the Steelers have a one game

560
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:10,279
lead over Baltimore. By winning on Monday Night, it guarantees

561
00:32:10,359 --> 00:32:13,759
the Steelers, no matter what they do the next two weeks,

562
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:17,480
that the final game of the season is going to

563
00:32:17,519 --> 00:32:21,400
be for the division at worst for the division title. Now, obviously,

564
00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:24,400
if Pittsburgh wins a game along the way and Baltimore

565
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:28,680
drops one, then you know they'll have a two game cushion.

566
00:32:29,319 --> 00:32:32,960
But this is of the three games they have left

567
00:32:33,359 --> 00:32:36,279
traveling on a short week. They got Cleveland next week

568
00:32:36,319 --> 00:32:39,119
and then that showdown with Baltimore. The following week. Not

569
00:32:39,359 --> 00:32:42,799
a good setup for them. Detroit has scored thirty four

570
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:46,039
or more in four of their last six games. Pittsburgh's

571
00:32:46,039 --> 00:32:48,559
going to try to run the football, shorten the game.

572
00:32:49,119 --> 00:32:51,920
But what happens when you fall behind by two scores?

573
00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:54,119
You got a band in the running game, and then

574
00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:58,359
that's gonna make Pittsburgh one dimensional. And that offensive line

575
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:01,920
is still not great and Aaron Rodgers will be under

576
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:07,839
pressure if Detroit decides the blitz numerous times. I just

577
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:12,519
don't like this setup for Pittsburgh. And oh, look at Detroit.

578
00:33:12,519 --> 00:33:17,039
What have they've done the last ten games? Win, lose, win, lose. Well,

579
00:33:17,039 --> 00:33:20,079
if you follow that pattern that has happened for ten

580
00:33:20,119 --> 00:33:23,519
straight weeks, this is the wind week. I'll go ahead

581
00:33:23,559 --> 00:33:26,200
and take Detroit and lay the seven. I would go

582
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:29,359
ahead and grab that seven because I think this could

583
00:33:29,359 --> 00:33:32,680
get to seven and a half come Sunday. Go ahead

584
00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:34,440
and lay it with the Lions.

585
00:33:34,799 --> 00:33:38,519
Speaker 1: All Right, we started trending upwards on our best bets

586
00:33:38,519 --> 00:33:39,000
and then.

587
00:33:38,839 --> 00:33:41,559
Speaker 2: We came crashing down last week.

588
00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:44,160
Speaker 1: So we're just gonna not overthink it this week, and

589
00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:46,400
we're gonna lay fourteen and a half points with the

590
00:33:46,440 --> 00:33:49,319
Houston Texans. I know, I know, I'm not usually some

591
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:54,799
chalk eating weasel here, but what is happening to the Raiders?

592
00:33:55,319 --> 00:33:59,559
Speaker 2: Cannot stop this momentum, right, just keep going.

593
00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:03,599
Speaker 1: I get that crazy backdoor cover against the Broncos. Then

594
00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:06,119
they go on the road and just get absolutely blown

595
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:10,159
out in Philadelphia. They have lost eight straight games and

596
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:15,360
now have to face the Houston Texas defense. Yeah, this

597
00:34:15,679 --> 00:34:19,280
is not going to be good. It does not matter

598
00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:22,280
what the Raiders try to do.

599
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:26,280
Speaker 2: This team has cashed it in for the season.

600
00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:30,519
Speaker 1: And let's say this is about as short as the

601
00:34:30,519 --> 00:34:33,199
amount of time the Raiders' offense spin on the field

602
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:33,880
on Sunday.

603
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:35,840
Speaker 2: A very short synopsis.

604
00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:37,599
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna try to find you guys some more

605
00:34:37,639 --> 00:34:41,159
reasons why we cannot bet the Raiders from.

606
00:34:41,039 --> 00:34:41,760
Speaker 2: The gold sheet.

607
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:45,239
Speaker 1: Las Vegas is now responsible for two of the worst

608
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:49,920
offensive games in the NFL over the last decade, and oh,

609
00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:52,440
by the way, they happen to have occurred in the

610
00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:55,639
last two months. On October nineteenth, the Raiders generating ninety

611
00:34:55,639 --> 00:34:58,280
five total yards and got three first downs against Kansas City.

612
00:34:59,039 --> 00:35:01,159
They were on the field for only seventeen minutes and

613
00:35:01,159 --> 00:35:03,039
fifty two seconds in that game and went oh for

614
00:35:03,079 --> 00:35:03,840
seven on third down.

615
00:35:04,559 --> 00:35:06,320
Speaker 2: Hi thought it couldn't get any worse. Well, guess what.

616
00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:09,119
Speaker 1: They played the Eagles last week, where they finished with

617
00:35:09,119 --> 00:35:11,960
seventy five total yards and one point eight yards per play.

618
00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:17,079
Houston six game winning streak, they've covered five of those six.

619
00:35:17,519 --> 00:35:20,760
We're laying it here with the Houston Texans to blow

620
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:24,719
out the Las Vegas Raiders. All right, guys, that was

621
00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:29,719
your NFL edition of bet on It from myself, Marco DiAngelo,

622
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:34,239
Yanni the Greek. We'll see you guys for a week sixteen.

623
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:37,639
I cannot believe we're this far along in this NFL season.

624
00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:38,639
Speaker 2: Up next week and.

625
00:35:38,599 --> 00:35:40,880
Speaker 1: Of course, if you guys are looking for more stuff

626
00:35:41,159 --> 00:35:45,679
on the college football playoff, look no further than right here. Also,

627
00:35:46,039 --> 00:35:50,079
we'll see you guys Saturday and Sunday for WADOS talks.

628
00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:53,679
Last call, Yanni the Greek, Marco DiAngelo. We've got a

629
00:35:53,679 --> 00:35:54,599
star seted lineup