Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It's Tuesday. It's time for full
Court Press. Rob. You know, it's five dollars Tuesday, And
after troubleshooting all day yesterday, it does look like it's
gonna be rip to my computer, which I guess you know, Rob.
Back in the there used to be a time where
you bought something and you just used it until it broke.
Like I truly believe they make these things. To Dale
Kelly Stewart was like two and a half to three years,
you got to throw that thing out and get a
new one. And I was like, I don't know. I
feel like when I so I got this laptop, it
was like the best laptop you could get back in
twenty twenty one when I got moved to wager Talk.
So apparently that's too long. So I've been told, so
we're gonna retire this once the last day. I'll have
my new one tomorrow, so hopefully we can get through
the show without any issues today.
Speaker 2: Perfect. Yeah. I had to go out and get a
new one myself about four months ago. Yeah, it is crazy, Adam.
It It's like the iPhone. As soon as you get
a new iPhone six months later, it's not good enough.
There's a new iPhone, so technology has us without question.
But today looks like a huge card. Decent day, yes, well,
I won't even say decent day fifty to fifty yesterday
because I did have the Sacred Heart team total, as
you guys know. But I followed that up with a
play on our boyfriend McCaffrey and the Penn Quakers, who
I thought would be able to score on Harvard, and
that did not happen. Low scoring game. Tommy Immicker's team
imposed their will which is a little more pedestrian, a
lot more pedestrian, and Penn didn't quite make it to
the finish line with their team total. But we'll take
the one in one. If that's the worst we're gonna do,
we're fine.
Speaker 1: With that, ron Bino, I had a two and two
day yesterday, but in the most satisfying way possible because
my two four percent one by two three percenters loss.
So if you're going to split, that is the absolutely
the way to do it. Ended up think winning like
maybe one point two units yesterday, So going in the
right direction, and yeah, you you made a great point,
we're gonna get right into it. It is a huge
Tuesdays are really like all I feel like they're all
feature games, or there could be about five or six.
We could just do a show of quote unquote feature games.
You know how that's not that is not how this
show works. We're gonna talk about the games that you
guys want to talk in the chat. But to start
it off, I felt like we should go with the
the ranked versus Rank, the one ranked verst rank matchup
today down in the SEC Vanderbilt Arkansas. I have to
be honest, I got this. I got Arkansas a little
bit wrong over the weekend. I guess they were. I
didn't bet the game, but it did come up on
our last call show, and I just thought Arkansas was
just a significantly better team than Georgia. I thought they
were gonna probably have no problem with them in that spot.
I saw a little bit of value in Arkansas as
a dog. And then you know, in hindsight, I said,
oh no, they had the look ahead spot of all
look ahead spots this weekend, having to play Georgia with
what was at the time one lost Vanderbilt coming to
Fayetteville tonight. So Robino did Arkansas look ahead a little
bit over the weekend, and do you see a more
focused Razorbacks team here?
Speaker 2: Boy, it's hard to say in the SEC and coaches
can tell us best. If you overlook anybody in this
league other than LSU without Dedon Thomas right now, and
there's still a quality basketball team. It's just tough to
go anywhere in this league and come up a winner.
Georgia of the number one offense in the nation as
far as point production per game is concerned. So it's
not going to be easy when you go there. But
I want to start this, Adam, if the chat will
allow me to to pat myself on the back. Sometimes
we come on these shows and we say things ahead
of time that proved the ring very true. I want
to quote you on Vanderbilt head coach Mark Byington. I
had said this last week. I didn't know that it
would occur this quickly, and I think I made that
notation at the time. Mark Byington, We're not as deep
as I want to be right now, but hopefully we'll
get Frankie Collins back at some point pretty soon. I
think when we're at our hole, I think we could
do even better with the versions that we have, even
better than this last week. I had said, you know what,
at some point in time, I think Baby's going to
be affected by depth without Collins, and he's out an
extended period of time, right, I just didn't know that
it would hit this quickly, or that the coach would
recognize that this quickly. Byington goes on to say, we'll
keep getting better. That's going to be the thing of
our focus moving on. We're going to learn this type
of failure in the middle of January is not permanent.
This type of game, it could be something that really
helps us. Of course, he refers to the game they
lost the other day to Florida, which also came up
on our last call segment. Adam, Vandy Florida, and I
think that was one where you thought Florida, you wouldn't
want to betting against Florida. That turned out to be correct.
Here's the thing with Vanderbilt right now that I noticed
last two games, they're on a two game losing streak
right after being undefeated. The first sixteen games that Vanderbilt
played this season, only one time did a team shoot
better than forty six percent or forty six percent or
better from the field. Last two games fifty two to nine,
almost fifty three percent to Texas, fifty two to five
to Florida. Those are huge numbers by this standard that
the Vanderbilt defense had set. That's six percent higher than
fifteen of the previous sixteen teams had shot against them.
The only other team to shoot over forty six percent
from the floor against Vandy was UCF way back on
November the eighth. So they had gone a long time
playing really good defense. We always lead with their offense
because it's been spectacular. It was great the other day too,
watching that game from start to finish, having a little
bit of a a little bit of a play on
the full game total, and obviously it went way over
They shot fifty one percent themselves. They just couldn't match
Florida when push came to shove, Florida always had an answer.
We'll see if this Vanderbilt defense gets any better at him,
because you know what, going to Fayetteville, you'd better bring
a defense. Last four home games Arkansas's played in this
gym Bud Walton Home against Louisville win eighty nine, eighty
home against JMU one O three seventy four, home against
Tennessee eighty six, seventy five home against South Carolina, the
most recent one eight seventy four, four and OH straight up,
four and OH against the spread, four and OH games
over the total, four and OH team total over wins
by nine to twenty nine, eleven, and thirty four. I
get it that those four aren't the elite of the
elite competition where competition is concerned, but Louisville had mckel
brown in that game. Jmuoka Sunbelt Team Tennessee top tier
SEC team South Carolina, noted for being a good defense,
gave up one o eight to this team. Arkansas also
is off a loss, which situationally, you just talked about
the Arkansas lost and Georgia situationally makes this tough. Want
to call for a Vanderbilt bounce back because they lost
back to backs, Well, then you have to bet against
Arkansas off a loss at home where they've been dominant points.
Spread's probably right where it should be, Adam, I don't
know which way to go with this game. I could,
like I say, make a case for both. I think
if I had to at this point in time, I
would lean Arkansas at home just off of the results
that they posted. And you know, I don't want to
selight Vanderbilt in any way, shape or form here because
you can't. But it does seem like there in one
of those in season ruts that everybody goes into, no
matter how good you are, and especially on the defensive end,
that maybe it takes another road game to get out of,
and maybe next time they get back home to Nashville,
I'll look Dandy's way. But for this one, slightly in Arkansas,
just quick check of the current total here where we're
sitting one seventy three and a half. I mean, that's
probably right on target too. They're telling you this game
should go somewhere in the vicinity of eighty seven eighty
six Arkansas, eighty seven eighty eight, eighty six Arkansas. I
can't argue that's so it's a lot of analysis for
not really wanting to play a game, Adam, But I
don't want to play this game.
Speaker 1: I thought your analysis was sound. I'm not even gonna really,
you know, rehash it because I'm in agreement with slightly
in Arkansas. I thought you did a great job breaking
the game down. So I'll point out just a couple
of other things that I I think maybe support slightly
in Arkansas over the weekend. You know, they did get
beat by Georgia. Georgia hit twelve threes in that game.
I think Arkansas probably played the game they wanted to play, Like,
if that Georgia team's just gonna hit twelve threes on you,
you almost have to tip your cap a little bit.
They won the rebounding battle. You know, Arkansas themselves on
the road five for twenty one and from three in
that game. That was probably the difference. But again, I
don't know that they like, I don't think that that's
a horrible result. Georgia cracked the top twenty five with
that win. Listen, winning on the road and the SEC
is not easy. And I think that's where I'll just
wrap this up. This has been going on for years.
Arkansas at home SEC games very tough to beat. Arkansas
at home this year, very tough to beat ten and oh,
I believe coming into tonight at the Bud Walton Arena,
I'm with you, Rob, this isn't the spot that I
want to suddenly jump back in with Vandy. I really
think that this also has to do with you know,
now you're in now you're in SEC play. It's the
best conference in college basketball by you know, for many
people would say that this is the toughest league in
college hoop. Yeah, you had a great non conference, you know,
winning games like VCU and Saint Mary's in the Bahamas
or whatever there were, Atlantis or wherever those games were
is impressive. The blowout win over SMU. But like they
really haven't experienced until this point a schedule that has
you played Bama, send you to Texas. Now you're home
against Florida, who desperately needs a win. Now you're back
on the road at Arkansas. Listen, losing three or four
games in a row in a league like this is
not uncommon, and I don't think Vandy's immune to that either.
So I'm with you. I lean toward Arkansas, but I
don't know if I'm getting enough having to you know,
I think the number is fair. I don't think there's
really any value on the spread. I just don't know
if there's enough there for me to jump in make
it a client play. But I certainly lean toward the Razorbacks.
And again I said, when I left the game of
Brian Power East Lansing, we were there early in the year,
I said, this is it Arkansas team that I will
be in. I'm gonna probably want to be on them
in February and forward, just because, like I feel like
that's what Cali Perry gets the best out of his teams.
So we'll learn a lot tonight, in my opinion in
this game, Rob Vita.
Speaker 2: And in Mark Byington's opinion too, he's looking he's we'll
learn a little more. So everybody's going to learn tonight,
Adam from this game.
Speaker 1: Listen. We're here to learn, but we're also here to
find winners. So that's what we're gonna do the right
you know what I just decided, Rob, because we keep
splitting the parlay and we got to make sure we
get the payoff when we hit the parlay. Today is
a three we're doing a three team or today. I
don't know where that third game's coming from. Maybe it
comes right here from Garth. Maybe we'll ask him if
he wants to be put on the spot by you.
Probably will roll in at some point, but garthppreciate your
donation to the show. As always, he wants to go
to the Big East Crazy game in the Big East yesterday,
Providence and Marquette. Listen, Rob the Big East might be down,
it doesn't mean there that it's void of entertainment. Great
basketball games. Providence Marquette got up in the hundreds yesterday.
Ot Garth wants to go to Paul Butler, he says,
he leans to Paul plus seven and a half. I'm
gonna let you kick this off, Rob, because you started
to talk about de Paul on Friday and would have
been right about that game had it make Maybe it
did make your card, I don't remember. But kick us
off to Paul Butler in the Big East.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not gonna argue plus seven and a half
with DePaul. I mean to quote colleague and friends Ski prophet.
If I can't trust you to get stops, how am
I gonna lay this type of price? And you can't
trust Butler to get a stop. What you can trust
Butler to do is score, And I don't know that
DePaul has it in their bag to stop Butler from scoring. Here.
First place I looked Garth in this game immediately was,
of course game total and Butler team total. To me,
I have to be honest. This total, even being bed up,
seems low. One forty six and a half up to
one point fifty. I'm not gonna say that it can
make the heights of Providence Marquette. But I see this
game in the same in the same way that I
saw Vanderbilt, that we saw Providence Marquette yesterday. It's just
an offensive basketball game here. Butler's gonna score. They're going
to allow you to score. At home. They should be
able to score on DePaul. The Butler team total here
is seventy eight and a half or seventy seven and
a half, seventy eight and a half. Shop around again,
we always say this, shop around for best number tause
you can find someventy seven and a half's out there
if you do like the Butler overside. But wow, I
just threw myself right off track here with my chin.
Too many things go now between these years at them,
but very simply put, you know, to the answer on
the side, there's no way I would lay it with Butler,
even though it's a home team that can score. You
just can't try. And to Paul, let me say this
about the Paul. They play with a lot of fight,
and that's a team that's gonna fight for the full
for If you bet the Paul, you're gonna get your
money's worth at least whether you cover or not. You're
not gonna walk away and say they quit on you,
they're lazy, they're this or that, they're none of those things.
I think they're going in the right direction. I think
they're going in a better direction than Butler. But every year,
whether it be college football, college basketball, NFL, NBA basketball,
I tend to tag teams as over teams, and Butler's
one of those where I just continually if I don't
bet a Butler game over, I'm probably not betting it
at all. For me, I think the most value could
lay or could in this full game total over. And
I think I remember what I was gonna say now,
I see the winner of this game in the eighties
and so at seventy seven and a half, if Butler wins,
they're probably going over. But to me, Garth, that was
the biggest surprise that they opened this one one six
and a half, and money the market obviously sees the
same way. They have pushed it to one fifty.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I you know, I've actually I've made my round
so far in the Big East, Robino, I've I think
I've been to three or four Big East games now
past month or so. One of the first Big East
games I saw this year in person was Saint John's
and Paul And before that game, I noted, we actually
you had Jim Root on the show that day, so
I didn't have that. I didn't do the show that day.
I went after the Drexel game. It was a rare
missshow for me. But I noted the you know, kind
of like I think on Twitter that day because I
had some time to to tweet between games, that I
that I really felt like this could be the year.
And and and it's just twofold one the Big East
that we've sort of outlined on this show the whole time,
this is a is a pretty down year for the
Big East. It's just not a good year across the
board for the conference. Yes, Yukon is a very good team,
and they belong in the conversation for national you know,
they're they're they're one of a handful of teams that
maybe could win a national championship. But when you get
outside of that conference isn't very good. And and I
think it's it is the perfect year for DePaul to overachieve.
I thought that this team is, you know, someone in
the chat says to Paul, twelve and five against the
spread makes complete sense. I thought this team was pretty
undervalued coming into the season. Again, they were, they were
put behind a lot of other teams in the Big
East coming into the season. That they aren't necessarily worse.
Then you know that they weren't necessarily worse than at
the time, and now they aren't worse then because so
many of these teams have had you know, I mean
Georgetown one and six. But you know, as Ed Cooley says, Rob,
we got nil money. There's worse things, right, There's worse
things than being one and six. Maybe an all time
quote from a coach right there, Marquette maybe one of
the worst seasons that I can't remember. Worst Marquette season
seven and thirteen, two and seven in league play. So
you know, by default, like if all of these teams
are gonna underachieve, someone's gonna bump up the ranks. I
think that team is de Paul Butler's another one of
those teams two and five in league play. I fallen
for the Butler trap a couple of times. I played
them last week against Xavier, a Xavier team that actually
was one of the teams that should be near the
bottom because they have a new coach and they're in
a complete sort of year zero in my opinion, and
Butler got destroyed by them. So how would I lay
seven and a half with this Butler team here? Could
they come out and cover? Yeah? They could? If if
I bet to Paul, will they yes? Because this team
owns me. Can't get them right. I can't get Butler right.
To save my life, I go against them. I think
I had right state earlier this year against Butler. I
was getting like twenty something points. It was a three
point game at halftime, and Butler scored sixty something in
the second half. So for me, Garth, I just have
not been able to get on the right side of
a Butler game. But I know they're not very good
and that has played out because they're two and five
in league plays. So I absolutely cannot put you off
the De Paul side here. I love what Holtman's done.
I think they're gonna be admit I think that I
think DePaul is headed for potentially. I think they could
crack the top five in this league. I'll go on
record saying that I think DePaul could make it to
fifth in the Big East this year. I really do
think that they're they're better than a lot of these
other Big East teams. So I can't put you off
that I think the numbers fair. But to Paul, yeah,
I could see that hanging around tonight.
Speaker 2: Just real quick here to finish this, so off, Adam
Butler beats Seaton Hall the other day at Seaton Hall,
score seventy seven on the Hall despite four of eighteen
to three point shooting garth to what I was saying
earlier that game, Butler Seaton Hall hits one forty three
with seven for thirty five combined three point shooting twenty
percent from three by those two teams, thirty five chucked up,
only seven went in and they still got to one
forty three. So I think that the shooting from beyond
the arc would be a little bit better there by
each side here tonight.
Speaker 1: I'll just let you read Trevor's comment. I don't disagree
with it. He's not wrong, but hey, this is what
we're talking about. This is this is how mediocre this
league is. Seaton Hall comes out, nearly, comes back, nearly
gets Yukon, turns around, Butler goes into their building destroys
them as a six and a half point. Now you
want Butler to turn around and win and cover seven
and a half. I think just like that logic would
probably point me to to Garth's side with the Paul
as well. All right, Rob Vino, I see people in
the chat talking about it. I was waiting for one
person to bring it up. Because the feature game tonight
is in the MAC Conference. It's in Kent, Ohio. The
Miami RedHawks are unbeaten. What a game over the weekend,
one of the best games of the year. A tip
out three to tie the game, send it to ot
and then Peter Souter just rocks rocks his defender to sleep,
pull up three in his face for the way, Miami
of Ohio stays unbeaten. And now they head to the
MAC Center on the campus of Kent State University, where
my guy, I believe, my guy, DJ Smills is still there.
Great in house. DJ, one of the best I've come
across to this point. He's gonna have the place hype.
I actually think on Twitter he still has my comment
pinned from like a couple of years ago. So anyway,
it's a great atmosphere Kent State. We talked about this
on Friday they beat Toledo and I said, you know, Rob,
last year, Kent State had a down year. Okay, going
into the season, they had won like thirty something. I
think they had won like thirty or something, or like twenty.
It was like twenty eight straight home games. It was
getting up there, the home win streak that they had
carrying over from their NCAA tournament team the year before,
and they just had a down year last year. This year,
on Opening Night, they lost at home to Troy in
overtime in a game where they easily could have won.
There was one hundred. I think both teams cracked one
hundred and got very close to one hundred. And they
haven't lost since ten straight home wins. It looks like
the Max Center home court edge is alive and well
the kids are back. Does my may of Ohio lose
their first game tonight.
Speaker 2: Robbie, you know what my personal opinion is. And I
didn't have or I haven't had the I don't know
Cajone's whatever you want to call them to pull the
trigger yet. I just feel like Miami's running out of
time now with the undefeated record. Right at some point
in time they'll have a loss tacked into that column,
and there's probably no better chance than having them come
off the game that you just describe dramatic, ot win
so close to losing, pull it out, and then after
march on to Kent, who's probably the second best team
in this league. They've been dominant. They score almost at
will when you watch it, like I get to lead
as a bad defense, and we did talk about this
game the other night. But Kent does what they want
to do whenever they want to do the problem, of course,
is that they give it up as well. In Miami's
the number one effective field goal percent shooting a team
in the country. So you have the best shooting team
against a defense that'll give it up. It's it's gonna
be a back and forth by all statistical metric numbers.
But I think Kent at home probably is the place
where the streak ends for Miami. Like I say, you
watch enough seasons of this, and believe me, I've seen
my share of seasons and you get the feeling. And
in the business, we kind of call it gut feeling
when you see a game, and I referred to it
the Miami close call. Barely keep things alive, celebration afterwards,
and then have to go on the road to an
extremely good conference foe. I just see it ending here.
However Kent has to do it, it would probably be
high scoring. The total indicates that I think Kent matches
up real well. Here's the thing. Kent, even if they
get a huge or Miami even if they get a
bit lead, Kent is capable of the comeback. The crowd
is capable of pushing him through the comeback. If Kent
gets a big lead, Miami is capable of the comeback.
Number tells you it's going to be close. It has
shifted from Kent minus one to Miami Ohio minus one,
one sixty seven and a half. Big push down in
the total ad. I'm not sure I agree that we
come down that much. Maybe somebody thought one seventy two
and a half was too high, but to be one
sixty seven win sixty seven and a half right now,
I'm not so sure. I do personally think Kent will
win this game. Haven't bet it so, I don't want
anybody to rush to the window. But I also think
that it's time to push back on this total. To
me eighty five eighty three cash is your ticket and
that sounds more than reasonable in this game. Up, Yeah,
I got the area.
Speaker 1: I was actually I was just texting with Brian Power.
It looks like we are going to try to go
to the Miami of Ohio Ohio game his album either
and Athens on the final day of the season. Rob,
so selfishly, I love Miami of Ohio to be unbeaten
A going into that game. Do I think that's gonna happen. No. However,
if someone doesn't get them soon, they've actually played the
hard That's actually the craziest, one of the crazier things
for Miami of Ohio in terms of their MAC schedule.
If they win this game, Rob, they will have played
the harder part of their MAC schedule already. Like, I
don't think they have to play Akron again, it's not
a so the MAC is not balanced. You don't play
everyone twice. So again, I don't have it in front
of me here, I'm going off memory, but I don't
think they would have to play either of these teams
after today. So if they get through this one, they're
gonna have to. You know, they do play Ohio twice.
And yeah, I don't think I don't even know if
they have to play bowling Green again. But as far
as this game is concerned, listen, Kent State, the edge
they probably have here is rebounding. They if they win
the glass, they're gonna be in a good position to
win this game. Doesn't mean they're going to win. I mean,
it's gonna be tough to find a better offense, a
more efficient offense to Miami Ohio. They're as good as
it gets. The way they splace the floor is incredible,
Like they deserve to be in this spot like that.
That's I guess. The point I'll try to make here
is it's not a fluke that they've won the games
that they've won to this point. Yes, they pulled on
a rabbit out of the hat against Buffalo, who's a
good team this year. That's a good Buffalo team. So
to me, it's like it's really tough because do I
think this is the most likely spot for like a
slip up, go on the road and lose. Yes, do
I even think that, like, like theoretically Kent State might
be a better team than Miami of Ohio because Kent
State played tougher non conference schedule and there are only
one game behind, eyeing the RedHawks in conference play. So
if Kent State comes out and wins this game at
home where they've been very hard to beat, they have
the same records as Miami Ohio and conference play. I
think my path to a play here, Rob would be
if Miami of Ohio takes more money and then it
pushes it on the other side of two. I think
it's like one. I think they flipped to a one
and a half point favorite. I think if you could
get me to Kent State plus two and a half
right here, I'd have to put some thought into that.
That sounds like the bye point for me. Ahead of that,
it would just be a slight lean toward Kent State
based on the fact that they're home where they've been
very good and it feels like the spot that it
finally comes crashing down in Miami in Ohio takes their
first loss. All right, let's let's get a quick promo
in here. If you, oh, did you have something to add?
I think you're muted now I think you might be muted.
Speaker 2: Now you are right. I was muted. Doug was barking.
I shut him down. Here's what's crazy and why staring
at statistics and metrics all day long, don't necessarily always
point you in a correct direction. Miami of Ohio has
got the three hundred and thirty second offensive rebound percentage
in the country out of three hundred and sixty five teams,
so the twenty fourth worst offensive rebounding team in the country,
which would lead you to believe that, man, they can't
hit the offensive glass for second chances. But of course
they're three hundred and thirty second because there's anything in
these sentry and three nothing comes out. Everything goes in
in the hoops. So again, for those who are just
getting into this stuff and watching us on a daily basis,
and you want to try and you're already doing your
own handicapping, or you're even if you've been doing it
for a while, you'll notice these things where you know,
if you're making every shot, of course, there aren't going
to be ever any offensive rebounds. And boy in Miami
five and eight and two point field goal percentage and
three point field goal percentage and number five and free
frow percentage, just nothing doesn't go in the the hoop
that they shoot.
Speaker 1: All right, we're gonna continue on. Yeah, I wouldn't listen,
you could. That's the type of game where I think
you could make a sound argument for either team, and
it's like I think you could probably sell me either way.
But yeah, that's you know those are those are they
make great watch. It's gonna be one to watch, very
similar to Vandy Arkansas. I don't I don't know if
I'll get to the window there. Okay, couple promos quick.
The first thing, I mean, this is amazing. I'm gonna
promo how does Andy Lang have a discord? I swear
to god, there's five Andy Langs like he he like,
there's got to be four of him or he never
ever ever sleeps. I thought I didn't sleep. I think
he might never sleep. So promo Andy has a discord.
That's news to me. That's awesome. Garth posts in there
where he's done extremely well, which tracks because he comes
on this show all the time and has typically you know,
blessed with a win. So shout out to Andy for
running a discord. That's tremendous stuff. And you can see
him at noon every day right here on the wager
Talk YouTube channel for wager Talk Today. Rob, you know
what's the promo today? Obviously it's Tuesday. But what else
do we got to talk about?
Speaker 2: Well, real quick here, no disservice to you or I,
who are one man bands. But I've talked to Andy
before and I do believe Andy's got a team around him.
So Andy may have a few extra hands aside, like
you and I are just one man bands. We don't
have extra hands. He's in the chait.
Speaker 1: Oh no, that's is that an Andy Berner? It's just
Andy is truly awesome.
Speaker 2: He's got burners too, you know what. We all love Andy,
and yeah, he just he's a hard working dude. So
kudos to Andy, and kudos to Garth for that fifteen
to twenty six record inside Andy's Discord channel. Real quick here, Adam.
Aside from five dollars Tuesday. Uh, it's of course double
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he is truly awesome.
Speaker 1: Well, that's just his that is just his handle. That's
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he says he has our show on every day. That's
a that's a huge compliment. I very much appreciate that
because I know how hard we work and how busy
it is, and it is hard to like watch all
of the content, So that is that's great.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, he's a great guy too. I've had to have
had the pleasure spending some time with him. Double the
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Speaker 1: Release and Andy Lang's in Indiana. I believe graduate God,
I think he went to Indiana.
Speaker 2: I know he ha'd be proud last night.
Speaker 1: I mean that's a yeah, incredible run for Indiana football.
And that'll be our segue because I see Garth's jump
back in with a another donation, which we very much appreciate.
He says, I you, Michigan think Indiana basketball team slumps
after last night's championship win by the football team, Well,
that's an interesting angle, Garth. That's that's an interesting way
to look at it. The other thing is they got
to play Michigan, which might not be very easy slump
or not right like Michigan is still they rob Do
you think Michigan got put on the back burner a
little bit because some of these other teams are still
unbeaten and and are you do you think that they've
suddenly gone under the radar, just to Tad because of
the all the hoopla surrounding Nebraska, Miami, Ohio, and Arizona,
who are still unbeaten. Because at one point I thought
Michigan was the clear best team in the country.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I know, I thought that for quite a while
since Thanksgiving tournament time. I watched a lot of Michigan
and thought, man, who's gonna bet these guys? And then
they just continued to rip off offensive performances that would
lead you to believe that nobody could stop them. But
the offense is kind of you know. I don't want
to say it's slumped, because obviously they're still scoring, but
Michigan is not produced the way they produced earlier on
this season. And that's the effect of conference season, right Adam.
As soon as you hit conference season, things do start
to change a little bit. I don't think that the
team is any worse than they were to start with.
I would agree with you that maybe there's not as
much chatter about Michigan at this point in time. I
go back to the Wisconsin game where they took their
only lost, ninety one to eighty eight, and really they
had multiple multiple opportunities down the stretch to win that game.
They just didn't make shots. A team that consistently made
shots could not make shots wide open threes. I think
I said this on the show back when it happened, Adam,
the basketball gods should have been kinder to Michigan that
day because the ball movement on offense for Dusty May's
team was absolutely wonderful. You know, you always hear the
saying pass up a good shot to get a better shot.
That ball was working around and then they would just
miss the three, and it's like God, that thing deserved
to go in just because of the work to pass
the ball to find the best shot. You know, they
beat Oregon not in really convincing fashion, but then again,
that was a two day road trip to the Pacific
Northwest where they came away with wins. And sometimes in
conference play we've talked about the leagues that do have
the difficult travel. That's all you can ask. Win by
ten two times in a row. Power ratings may still
have them a little bit overrated, but now they're back
home where they like it the best, and I'm not
so sure that they don't break out again here tonight
against Indiana. I want to get the exact number before
I close out here, so I can give you some
type of Yeah. So right now, it's been bet down
to fifteen and a half, which I think is correct.
I do think the power rating on Michigan may still
be a little bit too high, and that doesn't correlate
to you saying they're not getting as much national attention.
National attention and power ratings from vegas and offshore book
makers have nothing to do with one another. But here
we see a little bit of movement towards Indiana. Our
markets bet them two points worth and the total is
going up to one sixty three and a half. I
somewhat agree with that. What I agree with mostly here
is that Michigan's team totals should get up there again
tonight it's eighty nine and a half, Probably find their
way to ninety. Back home, we'll see if that makes
the card, but that would probably be my totals lean
And from a side perspective, seventeen and a half was
worth taking fifteen fifteen and a half. Maybe we're we
lost a little value here. I think I would be
tempted by fifteen and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the tough part here is that Indiana is pretty
by low right now, right Like, they've lost three straight,
you know, losing at home to Iowa last time out,
I would say was the spot where many people probably
thought Indiana was in a good spot to bounce back
get crushed by Michigan State, you know, lose the game
to Nebraska that they had a lead in for a
lot of the game, Robbino, that could have been could
have been Nebraska's first loss. Matchup wise, Indiana's gonna have
you know, they haven't shot it as well on the road.
They're gonna have to shoot the ball. I don't know
that you're just getting inside and scoring on Michigan near
the rim. It's gonna have to shoot it. Okay here,
but Michigan you do make a good I mean they've
been quite inflated from a market standpoint for a while now.
Even on their most recent West coast trip. They win
both of those games by double figures. They don't cover either, right,
I believe they were. I think the lines in those
two were twelve and a half and maybe as high
as eighteen against Oregon if I remember correctly, So didn't
cover either of those numbers. I do think Michigan at
some point is going to bury someone. Maybe that's Ohio
State on Friday that they really just you know, hang
a number on.
Speaker 2: That.
Speaker 1: This number feels right, I could see listen if Michigan.
If Michigan comes out and wins by twenty, I won't
be surprised, but it is a It's an awfully big
number to lay against an Indiana team that's lost three straight,
and it's kind of coming in in a little bit
of a desperate spot as well, so interesting one. I
think Michigan, though down the road, is a team I'm
going to look to buy in with. Maybe maybe the
buy for them, especially if it's a closer game tonight.
Maybe maybe the spot for Michigan is Friday when they
play Ohio State on the same floor.
Speaker 2: And real quick here, I love doing this show with
you because it always triggers a secondary thought. I had
had a quote from Darien Davrez from Indiana, but you
reference the Nebraska game, and that was a game where
I played Indiana first half. They did win the first half.
Nebraska came from sixteen down the second half, but I
played it for a specific reason that could come into
play here too, And I get Michigan's got game tape
on Indiana now, right, But it's the first time around
for a lot of these Big ten teams, ones that
haven't played Indiana yet to see the difference in Indiana
and Darien Driz system as opposed to what they had
played previously. And it caught Nebraska a little bit off guard,
I think in the first half, and then they adjusted
second half. Came from way back, and one could be
the same thing here from Michigan. I mean, you could
use that argument. Maybe Michigan doesn't recognize exactly these sets
and everything that Indiana is running. It's a little bit different.
Dere set a problem, his team must rem it a
wait a minute. For the first fifteen games of the year,
our offense was moving and cutting. We were getting and
playing the way that I think makes us most successful.
I feel like the last two or three games we've
gotten away from that action, which correlates with what you
were saying about them being on a three game skid,
just not doing the things that the coach, the principles
that the coach has for their offense. So we'll see
if they get back to it tonight.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And a good point here from Trevor, I think
a good way to finish this one out, you know,
I mean, how much is the Indiana basketball team really
partying because the football team won. I feel like they
probably like probably watch the game together, We're thrilled, probably
just you know, kicking it inside their like sweet ass
like sports only dorm facility, and then they probably just
like you know, went to bed. It's not not like
thirty years ago where they would have been out probably
like getting hammered before am. I just don't think like
this day and age athlete does that. So it's like
I'd be more concerned with the fact that Michigan just
had to fly back from the West Coast time zone
and they're getting back acclimated. I think that's a you know,
probably the better point to be made there. So yeah,
it'll be an interesting one. Well, I'll give one out
right now. I'll lock in leg one of what I
think is gonna be a three team parlay. I played
Bowling Green minus six and a half and I talked
about this. Actually I didn't. I don't know if I
talked about this on the show yet.
Speaker 2: I was.
Speaker 1: I was talking about this with with my buddy Joey
cheese this morning for a little bit. But you know,
yesterday I won my two four percenters, which which were
far more matchup based type handicaps than like totally being
like so overly concerned with like getting this great number,
like having like a huge numerical edge getting a ton
of CLD. I think for me personally, I've done better
this year when I just like hone in on a
matchup and and you know, just just find the matchup
type winner, like yesterday with Cornell, the Cornell Press being
a terrible matchup for Brown Hampton being able to overwhelm
NCAA and t those are my two four percenters yesterday,
both won easily. So I'm just gonna try to do
it again here. I think the number on this is
probably fair at six and a half. I don't love
laying points on the road, Robino, It's never been my style,
But here I think I'm fine with it. I think
Bowling Green could blow up Western Michigan out tonight. I
just the You know, this was a team that I
was very high on in non conference play. They had
a great non conference they came into the league, and
they've struggled a little bit in league play. But I mean,
they're they're a team that's going to overwhelm you defensively, right,
Like that is there? That is like the way that
they're going to win games is being athletic, really defending.
And they are three and three in league play. But
the three losses Miami of Ohio, Kent State, Akron. Is
there anyone out there that's going to argue that those
are far and away the three best offenses in this league,
with Miami of Ohio being one of the best offenses
in the country right, Like to me, rob no shame
in losing any of those games, because even though Bowling
Green is solid, they're still not up in that tier
in my opinion in this league. They where I do
think they play is when they play some of these
lesser teams, and surprisingly they haven't covered these numbers yet.
Over the weekend, they were an eight and a half
point favorite against Eastern Michigan. I think I think maybe
their standing was a little inflated coming in from non
conference play and then having to sort of lay some
of these bigger numbers to the lesser teams, but they
failed to cover that. I think they won, but failed
to cover at UMass as well. And so suddenly they're
a little bit undervalued, and they play a Western Michigan
team that turns the ball over as much as anyone
in the conference two hundred and eighty six nationally in turnovers.
You know, boys, but Bowling Green doesn't rebound the ball
particularly well. I was at the Lemoyne Bowling Green game
with Brian Power. I felt like Leamoyne kind of like
took it to them on the glass in the first
half of that game, and then they kind of got
in the game. But Western Michigan isn't going to overwhelm
you on the boards. So I look at this matchup,
I see nothing that Western Michigan really does better than
Bowling Green. And that turnover the two hundred and eighty
six nationally, turning it over close to thirteen times a game,
I think is where this one is where the difference is.
In this one. Bowling Green is gonna win games that
can overwhelm you defensively. I feel like you get a
big effort from them here, and to me, this is
a double digit Bowling Green win. I give Western Michigan
very little edge for home court, so I'm gonna lay
it on the road. Not my style. But that's what
I'm doing for this one today, and I'm gonna have
quite a few plays today. So check out that package
that Rob and I have. But this is a three
percent for me picking this spot to jump in with
a bowling Green team.
Speaker 2: I really like a lot like it, like it you.
I'm staring at the clock here, Adam, thinking that fourteen
minutes left in the show. Probably that's my cue to
go ahead and give my half, and then we'll figure
out where we're gonna get the third. Sounds big of
this parlay choices galore here for me tonight, I'm gonna
repeat what you just said, same for myself. A lot
of plays here tonight on this card. I'm probably gonna
have five, potentially six. I'll give you one right here,
and again, I do have my selection of games that
I like, but I'm gonna you know, we've talked a
lot on this show, at least I have about teams
that I tag where totals are concerned, and I just
can't get over how good Saint Louis is offensively. I'll
leave you guys with that thought, and then I'll give
you the game that I'm gonna use here, which is
gonna be TCU. Oklahoma State has been a team that
been pretty accurate on all season long. For what it's worth,
Steve Lets's team all offense, no defense, a lot of
tempo TCU, Jimmie Dixon's team needs a win. You were
talking before, Adam about schedules that teams have had to
play so far this season, and in the Big Twelve,
there is no easy game for the most part. But
for TCU, you're on a four game losing streak where
you lose an ot to Kansas, who we're seeing is
becoming the Kansas. A lot of people expected Arizona BYU,
and then after that Trio they fall short against Utah.
I don't think you can blame them. You know, in
your second game in the Rocky Mountains in altitude, after
you've just played the three I listed before that, you
lose eighty two seventy nine. They're back home here against
Oklahoma State. Very very fair number here, I thought, as
far as team total was concerned. At eighty four and
a half, Oklahoma State's dead last in the Big Twelve
in points allowed per game. It's eighty points something they
have no issue giving up anywhere between eighty five and
one hundred. We've seen it constantly all season long. I
think TCU comes out here with a lot of fight
at home tonight, off the four game losing streak, and
finds Oklahoma States defense pretty easy to penetrate. I give
you a quote from Steve Lutz, head coach of Oklahoma State,
who said, we have the team. I do believe that
we do that. If we get better defensively, we can
make a run in the Big Twelve and get into
the NCAA Tournament. If offense was the only aspect of
the game, I wouldn't doubt the head coach. But he's
telling you right there. If we can get better defensively,
we haven't seen it yet. I don't know that we're
going to see it tonight. TCU more than capable. And
one other thing here is tc is very well. You've
talked a lot about their guards and how they dig
in defensively. They're capable of scoring on a defensive end
in this game too, So a lot of pace, a
lot of scoring. I'll try the TCU side team total
up and over eighty four and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look not muted, all right?
Speaker 2: Here we go.
Speaker 1: Yeah, listen, I like TCU in this matchup. I was
a little put off by the number being as high
as it was. I do think if this was bent
down a little bit, which it looks like it started to.
I think at opened nine, I did see it go
to eight some places. I think you could probably if
this got down to seven or seven and a half,
I think I could probably be convinced to lay it
with TCU. Something I've said all year about TCU is
their they their guard, their perimeter defense. Those guards are
really as good as any in the conference. Will be
absolutely in your shorts great. I mean, go ask Florida
how that went for them when when Boogie flanned and
Xavier and Lee had to go up against those TCU guards, right,
and really really very unlucky to not have gotten one
of those wins recently, the BYU game, the Kansas game,
I mean they had pretty much had Kansas beat another
tough you know, go back to that TCU Arizona game.
I think that I think that was on this floor.
They were only like a six. They went off like
six and a half point underdog to Arizona, which I
think was a lot lower than many expected. Now, not
going to fault you for losing and not covering to Arizona.
That's the number one team in the country. But but
the point is, like, I think there's a reason that
the books are pricing TCU where they are right eight
and a half point favorite. I think most people look
at that and say, man, that's a premium number, but
they probably have done you know, the odds makers have
probably done that for a reason. Oklahoma State will turn
it over and you know, if they if TCU can
really get to them with that ball pressure, there's there's
stops that turn any easy points to eat points help
your total and it probably helps them cover to spread.
So I lean toward the TCU side, and so I
can't disagree with your team total over in this in
this game, all right? So Rob, you know we've got
two We've got two legs of the parlay locked in.
I'm gonna throw a game at you and you're gonna
all you have to do is tell me if you
have an opinion or not, and if you don't, we'll
move on to a different game. That's how we're going
to figure out the third leg. Here in the last
ten minutes is where our opinion lines up. So NC
State Clemson. Do you have an opinion or no, I
don't not affirm, Okay, do Caine. Saint Louis, I think
you may have said you do have an opinion?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do, I do.
Speaker 1: All right, let's see. Well, I mean, listen the Saint
Louis Billikins cracking the Top twenty five. We talked about
Miami of Ohio. I feel like we would be remiss
if we didn't give the Billikins their moment on the
show now that they're a top twenty five teams to
kick us off, and I'll let you know if I
agree or disagree. Saint Louis Dukane, Well.
Speaker 2: My opinion clearly here comes from a totals this offense
adam in this league. When did they play? They played
VCU a couple of weeks ago, right, I remember you
used the play in the parlay. They made VCU look
kind of middle of the package as far as A
ten is concerned. And ever since then they've done nothing
but destroy people. And nobody can stop this offense whatsoever
that Shirts has put together for Saint Louis. So a
couple of things I liked here because Dukane plays at
fast pace. I thought I like this game full game
to go over. I like the Saint Louis team total over.
You know me, I'm not sides are going to be
secondary to me. If I had to play, I thought, maybe,
you know, Dukaine has the capability to score is probably
what would scare me off of nine. But the other
part of my brain says, Saint Louis is just the
dominant force home road neutral anywhere in this league right now.
So if you're coming from a side perspective with your opinion,
I will lean your way. But total wise, I think
this full game gets over one sixty five and a half.
I'm looking at one sixty six now and I think
Saint Louis probably makes the ninety mark. But I would
want to include Dukine. I'll leave it at that. I
would want to include Dukine and play full game over.
Speaker 1: I'm good with that. I actually think that that's the
best way to play this game, because, as you reference
the VCU Saint Louis game, that game was never really close.
VCU made a little bit of a run. I did
have Saint Louis as a best bet in that game.
The problem is you're you're going to have a hard
time finding good spots to play Saint Louis on the
on the side, at this point, it's just that they're
they're now, they're nationally ranked in a league where they're
always going to be a favorite. So even though I think,
like Dukin here, I think they're likely going to win
this game, I don't know if I can see a
world where Dukane wins tonight unless they just go well,
I guess if Dukaine wins tonight, it means they went
absolutely nuclear offensively, that that's the only way they're winning
this game. So if you think Dukine's got enough juice
home game, nationally ranked team, which you know, they could
probably be one of their best crowds of the season,
it's likely going to be on the offensive end. It
probably means they're playing with their hair on fire, which
is good for pace, which they want to play fast anyway.
And Rob, you know, let's just look at their A
ten games to this point. The last two games like Fordham,
that was a little bit of a you know, they
kind of had to lead that whole game, and I
think I think Duquine knew that they could start to
kill clock and like just kind of put Fordham away.
Not a great offensive team. It's a big time transition
year for Fordham, first year for Mike Magpao. Like that's
just that was never really a game where I felt
like they needed to go like totally like full bore.
That one stays under. Dayton's pretty good defensively, Like that's
that you know, when they're at full strength. And I
don't have offhand what their personnel was in that game,
but that seventy one sixty five game stayed under as well.
And I think it was probably because you know, Dayton's
was able to get some stops against Dukane and just
sort of salt that win away the three previous games
where Dukine was able to like sort of you know,
ramp it up a little bit ninety seven ninety to
Saint Joe's ninety three eighty to VCU, which of course
we know now is a VCU team that's Phil Martelli junior,
that's that wants to play like that a little bit,
that's willing to go and beat you in a in
a ninety to eighty type game, and then David's in
eighty nine to eighty three. To me, this game feels
more like those games than the last two, where like,
I just don't know that Saint Louis is going to
take the air out of the ball and just like
you know, be okay with trying to put you away
on the like that, I think Saint Louis is just
going to score until they can't score anymore. If they win,
if they blow them out, it's probably because they got
eighty plus close to ninety. So I'm good with the
over here. I think it makes a lot of sense.
Speaker 2: Yeah, seventh fastest possession linked in the country. These two teams,
the third and fastest tempo inside conference. The games you
referenced Adam where Ducane didn't score very well, Fordham Dayton.
They're all sluggish style offensive teams, and we often reference
the fact that a fast paced team against a team
that wants to just crawl can be affected by that.
But when they're not affected, when you're going to play
a team like Saint Louis that's gonna go get buckets.
You know. It's the same thing Shirts did at Indiana
State with Robbie Avila when they went to the tournament.
It's just an up and down team that can shoot.
Saint Louis shoots it so well. We talked about Miami
O being the number one team in the country affective
field goal percentage. Saint Louis is three, so right there
with them. The only reason I didn't isolate Saint Louis
team total is because I do think Dukane, since they
play rapid and nation well, I wouldn't want to exclude
them from the from the whole thing here, full game. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I even said the other day listen, Drew Joyce has
done a great job with this Ducane team. I have.
I've come around on Ducane a little bit and him
being a decent coach and and them being able to
you know, if they're they're a functioning team, they can
score the basketball and and yeah, I wouldn't want to
take them out either. Again, I think it would take
a herculean effort for them to win this game, but
hanging around certainly, certainly possible. And then Robino, I think
the more likely way they hang around would be, like
if they're going to cover eight and a half, it's
gonna be because they're in that like six to eight
point range, which of course we know is extension. That
that's the prime range for extension on a basketball game,
So I'm with you. I actually I rarely like it
total this much, but I really like this one. So yeah,
that'll be the third leg of our parlay. What's the
number on that right now?
Speaker 2: I show if we shop at him, you can find
sixty one sixty five and a half, but I think
in the more common number is one sixty six. At
this point, we can go with one sixty six.
Speaker 1: So yeah, we'll try a three team or today traditional
three teamers six to one odds. I'll close the show
out with this and and Steve, this is like pretty
much what I was saying in the breakdown of that game.
He says, I've got I got. The spread is good
here too. I lean Bowling Green, but the spread is legit. Yeah,
I think the number is fair, like six and a half.
I don't think like I'm getting. I don't think I've
covered any any crazy like line edge. I just think
Bowling Green is gonna This is me going back to
the matchup, which is like something I'm probably gonna do
more going forward. Similar to Hampton last night, I wasn't
dying to lay five and a half with the Hampton Pirates,
but it was just such a good matchup for them.
They won the game by twenty. Bowling Green, I think
this is a really good matchup for them. I think
they come out and win at least by ten. So
that that's kind of what the point I was trying
to make there. That is a three percent play for me.
That will be the first leg of this part. Like
Bowling Green minus six and a half, Rob Bino is
going to go TCU team total over eighty four and
a half and then to make it a three teamer.
The consensus pick for Rob and I today Saint Louis
Dukane over won sixty six a lot more where that
came from. Five dollars. Tuesday will both have a playoff
for five bucks and of course the CBB double the
Firepower package. You get all of my picks, all of
Rob Bino's picks for three days. Anything we put out
we have gotten in right at the eleven am gun,
the powers that be will be thrilled and we'll be
back tomorrow morning ten am for more full core press.
See you guys then,