Speaker 1: Welcome to Way did You Talk today?
Speaker 2: The gold standard of sports betting shows, where we talked
the Talk, Walk the Walk. It's Monday, diving into sharp
market movement. We have to talk to Carmine about the
Olympic fallout, NHL futures. We got a lot of college basketball,
only three NBA games that we're gonna break down all
of those, Dan, come on in here.
Speaker 1: Pretty incredible weekend.
Speaker 2: Of sports like that was a lot of fun. You
had a lot of fun with your lacrosse plays. But
who do we have on today's show and what was
your takeaway from the weekend?
Speaker 3: Yeah, a great weekend. We'll get into that in just
a moment.
Speaker 4: But as you alluded to there, we have brought on
karm I saw he's able to lick his wounds after
USA beats Canada. Him and Prez had a great preview
on that video. Unfortunately didn't go their way, but Andy,
everyone was a winner who tuned into that game Saturday morning.
I mean, it was just a hell of a hockey game,
A great way to kind of put a cap on
what was a fun Olympic hockey season here for us. So, yeah,
we'll talk about the fallout there and then also, folks,
NHL is back, baby, which means put time is back.
So Karl's going to talk a little bit about that.
He's also got a future you should be betting now
in NHL action. Steve Merrill's also coming on, Andy.
Speaker 5: It's a small but mighty hoops board.
Speaker 4: We have three NBA games we're gonna have Steve talk
about the Spurs and Pistons. You're gonna give plays on
all three of them. And then a very small college
basketball board as far as the Marquee matchups go. Steve's
talking the doubleheader that's on the ESPN tonight. So you
want to play in Louisville taken on UNC, you got
it here. You want to play on Houston versus Kansas,
you got it here. So the small but mighty board, Andy,
we're hitting every game that's on it. So and for
you soccer fans, we'll have a play for you an
EPL action as well. It's a great Monday here, Andy,
on what is on the heels of a great weekend?
Two and zero in the lacrosse department for us, how
the rest of the team do, How the clients do
this weekend?
Speaker 1: We had a pretty good weekend. UFC was not that good.
Speaker 2: Oh and two on two we had two small plays
that that should have told me right there.
Speaker 5: It's a weird carr well car.
Speaker 2: We didn't like a big play, so we just put
in two small plays. They didn't go well, but we
swept the board on golf and that's a uh. We
lost our pre tournament play, but one, two live ones
Rugby department continues to keep kicking ass, so we ended
up with a really nice, nice one. I think we're
up eight units over the last seven days, so pretty
happy with how everything went.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're up thirty two units for the year. So
anytime you're profitable, so it's a it's good for this business.
So eight Yeah, it's.
Speaker 5: In eight units in a week. Andy, I will say.
Speaker 4: You know, we're well, well, we'll hold on to this,
but we could approach we could be approaching absolute wagon tory.
Speaker 5: That's all.
Speaker 4: As all I'm saying, we're nearing absolute wagon territory.
Speaker 5: That's as Yeah.
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's bring on Yanni here, let's uh, let's let's uh,
let's talk Yanni.
Speaker 1: You had a nice MMA weekend. Oh yeah, you are
the only one in my in my circle that that
had a weekend. Yeah, pre fight did well.
Speaker 2: I'll be honest, I was not doing well and then
being able to get Strickling at plus money live, what
do we talk about, UFC? I got I got shown
Strickland big at plus money in the second round. It
absolutely saved my card. But congratulations, man, nice mem a weekend.
Speaker 6: Yeah, it was a really nice card.
Speaker 7: And I felt going in because I do the notes,
A lot of betting notes I send into the UFC
every week that they use throughout, like different broadcasts and stuff.
Speaker 6: Make a long story short.
Speaker 7: I always sending how many favorites so far, how many
dogs based on the.
Speaker 6: Closing line, how many overs, how many youngers?
Speaker 7: And every year it's kind of down the same sixty
five sixty six percent favorites, you know, thirty two thirty
three percent dogs, and then there's like that half to
one percent that are the no contest And whenever it
gets way ahead one way or the other, it usually
has enough of a sample size to regress progress towards
the mean. Well, we started off the first two or
three events with favorites way ahead. I said, man, is
this that dog card? Because we are going to see
more dogs than we've seen the first few cards, that's
for sure.
Speaker 6: That doesn't mean it's going to happen overnight.
Speaker 7: So I was zeroed in on a couple of dogs,
but again I kept my volume slow. This was one
of those nights that I wish I fired fifteen plays
to subscribers because I was just throwing point. I even
have right now in one account where I have a
parlay that's still live where I put Strickling plus two
twenty mattage plus one eighty Spivoc plus one twenty two
and an open spot. So it's a four team parlay.
I have to find that one open spot. So the
next five percent in college basketball goes in there because
I fired the first five percent on Saturday with Duke.
I've been harping about Duke for the last three weeks
that they are the best team in the country, and
I got so much pushback from Arizona fans, from Houston fans,
from Michigan fans. I said, Dude, for me, I'm just
telling you what the numbers tell me, that no one
should be favored over Duke.
Speaker 6: And then I look at the line Saturday and.
Speaker 7: I see Duke's a home dog to Michigan, I said,
I got to fire my first five percent, but I'm
going to wait an hour or so into the morning
to see if any of the guys I work with
come in opposite me. The last thing I want to
do is fire five percent on Duke and have them
come in on Michigan. And I waited a little bit,
did last call, and then I said, you know what, man,
I gotta trust my numbers. I gotta fire. I'm betting
it that much. I got to give it to my
subscribers like that. So I gave out Duke and they
got it done. But honestly, I felt comfortable that even
if they lost that game. That's the kind of bet
I like placing where I felt confident I was getting
the best of it. With Strickling, I thought I was
going to throw that ticket out. I thought Fluffy was
gonna eventually grind him out by taking him down and
not controlling him for long. But that would be the
difference maker. But yeah, the value ended up coming in.
Speaker 6: So far, so good. Not to go on.
Speaker 7: But it's a very slow day to day, and I'm
okay with that because it was a really good week.
Speaker 6: It's been a great twenty twenty six.
Speaker 7: We're on we're ahead of schedule towards my goal, and
uh yeah, everything's good as we head into the March
badness which is ahead, and uh yeah, power ratings are
ready to go. So yeah, and we got MMA coming.
A lot of good stuff, a lot of good stuff.
Speaker 1: Anytime I see these these wrestlers.
Speaker 2: That are like, I'm gonna box, Oh, it's just like
it's just a live bet. It's I don't understand it.
I wonder if there was if he wasn't one hundred
percent healthy, But.
Speaker 1: What a horrible it's just a horrible look for him.
He looked terra like Strickland dog walked him and knocked
him out.
Speaker 7: So it reminded me when I I I thought of
the betters that had Fluffy felt like me a few
weeks back, when I had what's it called that didn't
go for uh, when I had uh Patty the Battie,
and I.
Speaker 6: Was expecting Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 7: I was expecting him. He's the grappler, he's the wrestler.
He's he's gonna at least do that, and he did
none of that. So I feel your pain if you
had Fluffy and you expected him to grapple and you feel.
Speaker 2: Like a dope, don't you Like you're you're watching Patty
just get his ass kicked.
Speaker 6: Watching You're like everyone sees it, like, yeah, unless unless
it's just so hard to do, you know what I mean.
Speaker 7: Like it's easy for me to say do it, but
maybe he just couldn't get it done, you know what
I mean? Gage was just that hard to take down
for him. Maybe I don't know, but at least try,
was my argument.
Speaker 2: Yeah, just give it a shot, just make make us,
make us just for optics trying to me.
Speaker 6: Yeah, so I sleep good, Patty, that's it, that's it.
Just give me two attempts. That's all.
Speaker 2: Well, let's talk your updated college basketball rankings. Yeah, you
trusted your numbers, paid off in a five percent place.
Speaker 1: So what are we looking at teams to bet on?
Teams to bet against?
Speaker 6: Yeah? Great question.
Speaker 7: And and uh still Duke still at the top. Obviously
nothing's changed there. I haven't downgraded Michigan because I had
them third anyway, going into last week, I had Houston
above them. Houston is still there, but I have moved
Arizona up above Florida. So now Florida's number five for me,
So it goes Duke Houston Michigan, Arizona, Florida in my
top five. Now, uh the bet on bet against. Here's
some of the teams that I have ranked that the
AP does not. I have Tennessee, They're in my top fifteen.
I have Connecticut, Oh no, no, I have Auburn, Auburn,
they're in my top fifteen. I have who else is
in there? Kentucky in my top fifteen. I have Arkansas
in my top twenty. Those are teams that I think
are really undervalued even BYU, that the AP doesn't have.
And then some of the AP teams that I think
are overvalued, none bigger than Nebraska, not even in my
top twenty. You know, they're a top seven eighteen in
the AP. Kansas is a top ten team, barely in
my top twenty. They go tonight against Houston. We could
cover that real quickly. And then who else was there?
Iowa State they have highed. I have high Iowa State
top five. I have them out of my top ten.
They're an eleventh best team. And oh one other team
I wanted to talk about that I have top ten
and is nowhere even in the top twenty. Tennessee, Tennessee's
dangerous team Top three defense, and they play a top
ten strength of schedule. That's a team that I've continued
to move up over the last three weeks. Every single
week they've climbed higher, higher higher. They're now one slot
away from breaking into my top ten. That Tennessee team.
So yeah, again, my ratings aren't perfect, but they've produced
enough to produce a profit. They their results have produced
a profit, so they're good enough to overcome me laying
eleven to win ten.
Speaker 6: If you pick your spots.
Speaker 7: Again, they're not always going to be right, but they
do prove themselves, like Alabama's better than the pollsters thing
teams like that, and I love taking advantage of that.
And if you want to cover real quickly tonight, here's
what I got. Louisville North Carolina. AP has Louisville twenty first,
North Carolina sixteenth.
Speaker 6: I have North Carolina not in the.
Speaker 7: Top twenty, but I have them Louisville and North Carolina
a lot closer. I have Louisville as the twenty fourth
best team in the country. I have North Carolina as
the twenty third best team in the country. So I
have them pretty much identical in power rating. Probably give
North Carolina maybe a half a point, but you got
to give North Carolina about two and a half for
home court advantage. So I made North Carolina the favorite
in this game. Louisville now three point favorite. That has
me all over North Carolina.
Speaker 6: But North Carolina got steamed.
Speaker 7: I mean Louisville got steamed from one of the guys
that I trade with, accounts with a group he works
with bet the Louisville side. That's why you're looking at
three now. So I got to sit that one out
unless I see it's just manipulation or you know, there's
other kind of information as the day goes on. And
the same thing with Houston Kansas, where like I said,
I have Kansas barely in my top twenty.
Speaker 6: They have them eighth, So I have Houston actually.
Speaker 7: Offering a little bit of value even though you know
their road favorites. I have Houston winning that game by
about three to three and a half, but we're looking
at one and a half in Houston. Whye, because Kansas
got steamed this morning. So whyse guys disagree with my
at least what my power ratings show on both these matchups.
So I got to dig deeper and seat is their
matchup difficulties, is their injuries or our numbers just disagree,
and then I'll follow the line as the day goes
on and see is does the market prove them to
be right for me to be right? And if it
doesn't support me betting, I'm forced to sit those two
out and probably just attack the added board games. Again,
I trust my numbers and I'm not but I'm not
going to go ahead to head when I know how
hard it is to win long term, and when I
see a long term winner opposite me, I tend to
respect that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's that is kind of interesting.
Speaker 2: So when you make official plays, it's only if if
you get confirmation on your opinions.
Speaker 5: Is that right?
Speaker 6: Correct? Correct? I'll fade sharp stuff.
Speaker 7: I joke all the time where I say, why Scott
Schman's got I'm fading it like I have that much
trust in what I like. I'll do that, But I'm
very selective when I do that, because you know, you
stick your head up too much, it's gonna get slapped occasionally,
and I have been slapped occasionally doing that.
Speaker 6: So I stay very selective, but I will do it
on occasion.
Speaker 7: I will never fade mine and just piggyback theirs because
it puts me in a no win situation. So I'll
never do that, Like I'll never now take Louisville tonight
just because they took Louisville if my numbers show North Carolina,
And I won't take Kansas just because they did if
my number is so Houston. But what I like is
for me on Houston, them on Houston, me on Carolina,
them on Carolina, or them idle kind of like with
the duke game in Michigan. They were idle, nothing on
the sides, firm the betting syndicates. So I was like,
I'm good there. It didn't make me nervous before the game.
Speaker 5: Nice. Nice.
Speaker 1: What what is your definition of sharp wise guy these days?
In twenty twenty, there's two.
Speaker 7: I'm so glad you said that I separate sharp and
wise guy. To me, they're two different.
Speaker 6: Betters.
Speaker 7: There's a ton of sharps out. There was a I
was a sharp better for U from a long long
time ago. I knew I was sharp, but I wasn't
a wise guy. You don't get that a status until
you actually do produce profit with your knowledge, your sharp knowledge.
Speaker 6: You know what I mean?
Speaker 7: Like where you're actually making money doing it or moving markets,
one of those two things.
Speaker 6: As a wise guy.
Speaker 7: As a sharp, yeah, I know a lot of sharp
guys out there that unfortunately have not Unfortunately.
Speaker 6: It is what it is.
Speaker 7: I was sharp, and I still had to sometimes go
hustle as a bartender, hustle, as a taxi driver, hustle.
I knew, I knew not to take bad numbers. I
knew all the sharp things to do, but I couldn't
do them. I was able to preach them, but I
couldn't practice them. And that's when you step into the
wise guy category because again, like you know, there's betting
syndicates wise guys. I consider them the same thing more
or less, but sharp's there's a lot of sharp betters
out there. Not all of them are profitable. Like I
know a lot of guys even on social media not
calling anyone out that is extremely sharp or the industry
considers them very sharp, but they're not. Uh, they don't
have positive lifetime earnings. Betting sports put it that way,
that that's like a rare class.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, it's all right, So we're we're we got
to be a sharp and then we got to be
a wise guy.
Speaker 1: I get yeah, I get it.
Speaker 7: Yea most most most just stay sharp and you know,
their whole lives, and if they get to work with
wise guys, it helps out. But it's hard to get there, man.
You know that by how few even with winning information
propt Fit. Just think of your subscribers. You have winning years,
but how many of them turn in a winning year
because you're not able to bet for them. You can't
manage their risk, you can't manage their emotions, you can't
brush all them demons off those shoulders that you have
to do to your own self every day, you know
what I mean. So that's where it becomes difficult, where
even if you're sharp.
Speaker 6: Like you still then have to survive all those the
demons we face every day in this racket.
Speaker 7: That's the difficulty of it because again, most get into
it because they have some gamble in them, Like at
least back in the day, like anyone that got into
this industry was in it because they had gamble in them,
like my you know, it's not we're not in it
by accident, where now it's a little different. Even math
guys get in it because they see edges and it's
a little bit. You know, it's changed with legalization and
the widespread of you know, sports betting.
Speaker 6: You look at like poly market and all those things.
Speaker 7: Now you have like brokerage guys that just do did
nothing but four x and stock and crypto. Now seeing, wait,
there's an efficiencies in sports betting market. And wait, all
of a sudden, there's liquidity as well because of polymarket
and call sheet. Now our competition is about to get harder. Boys,
I don't know if you guys know this all everyone
watching right now. Our trading like it's who you're trading
against more or less dictates your success and how good
of a trader you are and who you're going to
trade against. And now with the liquidity of Calshi and polymarket,
it's about to get harder. I used to talk about
this back at the start US when they were saying
offshore is going to explode, and I said, I don't
know if that's a good thing, because what if all
those Wall Street guys start to dabble into our market
and start creating the algorithms and the fiber optic cables
to beat by a split of a billionth of a
second to a move like that shit's going to happen
if there's liquidity in the market. But because these guys
move seven to eight figures and we only could move
six figures if we're lucky, they're not going to mess
with our market. But if there's enough liquidity where they
could start moving seven figures easily eight figures, eventually, dude,
rest as short, the institutions are coming and then that's
who we'll be trading again.
Speaker 6: So let's make our money.
Speaker 1: Now, all right, this is a topic we need to explore.
We need to get into later in the week, the
polymarket and cal sheets because there's a there's a lot
to digest there. So but for now, what do you
have up for everyone? A wager talking?
Speaker 6: Yeah, as of right now, we just got my long
term packages.
Speaker 7: If you're joining with me for the week, the month,
or even better twenty twenty six, you know our goals
what they are, and if they're aligned, you will not
be disappointed.
Speaker 6: Because I haven't been able to confirm anything for a
premium to even put the steam sheet off.
Speaker 7: That's why, real quick, I'll just tell you what I
got nba U TOAL plus fourteen college basketball. I told
you Kansas plus the two and a half three MOI
though minus to one and a half extra board games
Mississippi dow only plus seventeen and a half New Orleans
plus thirteen McNeese minus nine and a half and over
one forty four in McNeice. You just got the steam
sheet right now for free. I didn't want to charge
anyone nineteen dollars for that because that's all the information
I have up until now, and I don't have a premium.
I'm not going to fire a premium unless it's confirmed.
I said, I only have one goal in twenty twenty six.
That's to make sure I make money and uh we
turn a profit. So hopefully I am able to confirm
between now and then Andy, but nothing so far brother
for Monday, But luckily there's seven days in the week
and we got tomorrow.
Speaker 1: All right.
Speaker 2: I can't wait to talk Calshi polymarket and this ridiculous
UFC card that's coming up where everybody's a minus five
hundred favorite.
Speaker 1: If it even happens, grab your water bottle, baby, swallow
that chalk.
Speaker 6: That's how it goes. Sometime.
Speaker 2: Have you been notified about if if it's gonna take place,
because this is UFC Mexico and this is scary.
Speaker 7: Yeah, that's what I was just gonna figure. I'm not
too too sure, bro, uh that's gonna take place. They
don't have World Cup scheduled for Alasco. I think, so
not a place you want to be, uh going for
your your your resort.
Speaker 6: I don't know.
Speaker 7: Yeah, that's a great question. I would think it's they're not.
If I have to tell you, I would pretty sure.
I would bet the know. If it's on poly market
right now, I would definitely like, let's look, if there's
any action on Folling point.
Speaker 6: That there will not be a UFC card on Saturday,
I like it. Yeah, I don't.
Speaker 2: I mean, there's a there's there's tennis tournament down there,
and the test players are already there, and I was
reading that. I was reading the officials said if they were,
if they were the w t A and a t P,
get a couple of plays down there and get everyone
out of there.
Speaker 7: If I just watched the video of someone getting blowtorks
while tied to a tree, you don't want to go
there for for a UFC.
Speaker 6: Card, Like it ain't the place for M M A.
Speaker 7: I'm not sure Paramount wants to launch the first Paramount
in Mexico during that week.
Speaker 1: And great start for Paramount.
Speaker 6: Now kidnapped fighters. Yeah, we don't need that, all.
Speaker 1: Right, Johnnie, thank you very much. Look later later this week.
Speaker 3: Oh man, poun Paramount's like wave what what?
Speaker 5: What's happening?
Speaker 8: Now?
Speaker 2: That's Paramount's fault, though, I like to be upset. To
be upset already.
Speaker 5: There be you knew what you were getting.
Speaker 4: There is one thing that you can say about mister
Strickland other than the fact that you know he had
an incredible performance this weekend, and that is he he will.
He will speak his mind whether whatever whatever that is
that is on his mind. Uh you know, he will.
You put a microphone in front of his face, and
you're you're gonna get Sean Strickland quotes.
Speaker 5: That's that's that's what you're gonna get.
Speaker 7: Man.
Speaker 1: Yea for Paramount to be upset and played with fire,
younna get burned?
Speaker 5: Yes, yeah, exactly. You can't.
Speaker 4: You can't go crying wolf. Now we got Carmine Bianco
coming up. He's gonna give you some NHL action here.
But first Andy three games on the NBA card here tonight.
You have thoughts on all three of them. Here for
the folks, it's Andy loves you have folks, all three games,
small card. Andy's got plays for all of them. What
do we think of an NBA action here tonight? And
then we'll let folks know what we got going for
the clients.
Speaker 2: All right, Well, I think that we should try and
give away three day pass. Oh so if I uh so,
let's do every Let's do everyone put their wager Talk
user name in the comment section. If I go three
and zero, we'll pick a free three day pass winner.
So only three last night.
Speaker 3: Let's try and comment below after the video goes live.
Speaker 4: Folks, if your wager Talking user name is included on it,
free three day flex pass.
Speaker 5: When Andy hits these, here we go, baby.
Speaker 2: We'll start with the Pistons and the Spurs will take
the over two twenty nine and a half. Last three
away games for the Spurs, they've scored two thirty The
totals have been two thirty nine, two fifty eight two
games out of the All Star Break two thirty six
and two thirty nine. The pace has increased the last
couple months with this team actually both teams San Antonio
especially though last ten games the Pistons are seven and
three to the over, Spurs eight and two to the over.
Let's take the over at two thirty two and a
half in that one Grizzlies and Kings ugly game. But
when you get ugly teams playing not a lot of
non starters, you tend to not see a lot of defense.
And that's what I'm gonna been on here. We're gonna
take the over here. It's up to two thirty three
and a half. Fine, I'll take it. Kings have lost
sixteen games in a row. Dam The last time they
won an NBA game.
Speaker 6: C J.
Speaker 2: Stroud was still alive in the NFL playoffs. That's wow,
it feels like feels like a million years ago. Yeah,
the last two wins they had, we're against the taking
Jazz and the tanking Kings. So the opposing teams against
the Kings, they've scored one hundred and twenty points in
five straight. Opposing team against the Grizzlies have scored a
hundred fourteen in ten straight. And it's just when these
when these bench players are playing, they're trying to impress
for next season, they're trying to pad stats.
Speaker 1: There's not gonna be any defense that's played. So give
me the over in this one, and.
Speaker 2: The Rockets and the Jazz give me the Jazz the
first half. It's plus seven and a half.
Speaker 5: Here's what the Jazz due. They'll play hard in the
first half.
Speaker 2: They'll play their starters and then they'll bench guys. This
is a Jazz team, Dan that is tanking. But they
are five and oh ats first half in the last
five games. That just tells you everything. They're playing hard
in the first half and then they give it away
in the second half. And I don't trust this Rockets team.
The chemistry is bad. They're not blowing anybody out. So
it'll take the Jazz first half plus seven and a half.
So those are your three plays here after the show
comments section, put your wage to talk to use a name.
Speaker 1: If I go three and oho, we'll get the way
a three day pass.
Speaker 3: Boom and the absolutely love it.
Speaker 4: And before we get to calm here, real quick, I
want you to let folks know what we have because
we have a lot of action. Rocking darts has been
in absolute wagon territory. Real quick, Andy, before you let
folks know what we have up, I'm going to give
you something. I just got word that air Force and
Siena Lacrosse tomorrow has been moved. It wasn't outdoor game.
It's now going to be played at ten am indoors.
The total should be twenty six and a half. At
least the totals sitting at twenty four and a half.
So the thought process behind this, folks, guys, and again
this is I literally got it on my phone right
now that the game was just moved. So the thought
process is, both of these are solid offenses. They're also
both playing against really bad defenses. So we already liked
the over when these games are played indoors. Playing indoors
is a nightmare for goalies because they're using white balls
in white lights under in white arenas. So twenty four
and a half, I think it's still too low. So
breaking news there was a venue change. We like going
over in these don't go crazy on this bet because
it's two bad teams, but I think you should be
betting Siena Lacrosse and air Force Lacrosse over tomorrow.
Speaker 1: Ten am.
Speaker 5: Just found out about the.
Speaker 4: Venue change, So andy, now that folks see what they
kind of get from the lacrosse department, hopefully we cash
that one.
Speaker 5: What do we got rocking for the clients tonight, Well.
Speaker 2: Tonight we've got to pack up with a soccer and
an NBA prop. Thursday, we have a five percent darts
play that went up. We're now four and oh lifetime
on them. And if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
When you're seeing a sport really well, you trust your
reeds and you go with it. Dan, You're you're on
fire in lacrosse as well. So we're continuing success in
the sports that we are really dialed in, and darts
is one of them. So Johnny was nice enough to
let me put up a half price again. So with
some of these obscure sports, I get it. And then
bet on darts, bet on lacrosse, Yes you should, Yes,
you absolutely should.
Speaker 1: But we put it up for half price last time,
and we're gonna put it up for half price now.
So that's available right now.
Speaker 2: We got future in cricket, that is, I believe that
one is still up, but you can really rock this
ten days for the price of seven special that's going on.
So we have a huge UFC card, five percent darts,
We've got all of our NBA props, NHL props start
up again soccer and the rugby department is absolutely kicking
ass after a few wins this weekend, two and one
weekend in rugby. So you get all those save six
nine bucks ten days for the price of seven again.
Speaker 5: Love it.
Speaker 1: If you want just one play, that's fine, you want
two plays, that's fine.
Speaker 2: But it really makes all the sense in the world
to get a seven day pass, ten day pass, three
day pass so you can get all of these sports.
Speaker 1: So we're up thirty two units this year.
Speaker 5: I just checked.
Speaker 2: So running really good, nice profitable weekend. So we keep
chugging along and invite you to partner up with us.
Speaker 1: So that's what we got up.
Speaker 2: A couple questions about TGL tonight. There are two TGL events.
We will definitely be live for one of them. Jake,
I'm gonna I'm gonna lean the other side with Boston
just because Justin Thomas makes his tryump from return after
big surgery and big layoff. I can't wait till that
guy plays actual golf. We're gonna fade that, you know
what out of that guy. So he's just's just kind
of a fade. But we will be live and we'll
watch that show I have not bet it. I have
not client bet it. So that tells you my level
of confidence in there when I don't have my own
money on it. That that that that says a lot.
So we're gonna do all around the World and WTFLG
later on here we talk with Carmine or are we
talking with Steve Merrill?
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's bringing Karm real quick talk, a little NHL
action with.
Speaker 5: Our man Karm.
Speaker 4: Second half of the season is incoming here, Karm. But
it's great to see you. I we we reached out
to the north of the border. We were like, are
any gonna come on here? Show your face after all
the the smack talk that was done in the wager
Talk slack channel, and Karm said, I ain't never scared boys,
and he said World Cup is on the horizon.
Speaker 5: So you're just you're Italian. You're not even representing the
Canadians here today.
Speaker 9: Yeah, I'm go'm officially you know, the World Cup starts, dude.
It was a disaster up here. Man, It's just Molotov cocktails.
They bombed Costco locations. It was just actually, that's Mexico here.
Speaker 5: Nothing.
Speaker 9: Not a peep man, not a peep they lost the game,
and radio stations are just starting to talk about the
Trono Maple Leafs and their chances of making the playoffs.
I think it's absolutely hilarious. But yeah, it was a
great listen. It was a phenomenal game. It is what
the fans deserved. I said, I tweeted out about it
that hockey is much better than basketball. There's no way
even an occasional hockey fan, Okay can can watch the
USA VERSUS Canada watch that game and and not have
had a fantastic time. Regardless of the result. It would
have been great if Canada would have won. They didn't,
but the best player on the ice played for the US,
and that was Connor Hellibuck. He absolutely stonewalled canad and
the USA won, so great to them. I love the
moment with the Johnny Goudreau USA jersey bringing that on
the ice as well too, to honor him as well.
So kudos to the US. They're fantastic game. The numbers
were slanted in Canada's favor as far as like the
post game numbers, but that doesn't matter. The goalie wins
you games, and Connor Hellibuck did it. Man. Kudos kudos
to them. And my only thing is is just keep
hockey about hockey. I think people try and mix in
like a bunch of other stuff like politics or whatever
that doesn't come into it. Hockey is hockey, man uh
And at the end of the day, that's all that
really matters. People will survive here north of the border, Dan,
there's no igloos melting, there's no sled dogs running wild.
Everything is fine.
Speaker 2: Well, Carl, I do have something that hopefully will make
you and everybody else feeling, oh god.
Speaker 5: Here you go, what are they doing? Who's who?
Speaker 1: Was like, you know, we should give the losing hockey
team stuffed?
Speaker 5: It is it is.
Speaker 9: I saw it when they did the women's one, and
I thought, oh my god, are they gonna do that?
And the men's one as well too, Like what guy
wants to be handed a stuffy along with his silver
medal is just.
Speaker 5: Thanks for putting it all on the line and coming
up short.
Speaker 9: Thanks for having your teeth knocked out during the game,
as happened to one of the USA guys that four
minute penalty. Here's the stuff you to make you feel better,
but so listen. Khudos to the US. The US women
were phenomenal. I don't understand how that game was only
the USA game was only a one goal game with
the women the women, and I'm just gonna talk about
this Dan real quick. The women in twenty twenty two,
Canada absolutely Canadian women absolutely dominated the Beijing olymp They
just ran steamrolled everyone, and the USA from twenty twenty
two one said we can't let this happen anymore. They
brought in one of the one of the guys that
worked for the US men's development developmental team that the
Chuck Brothers, Boldy. Like all of these guys, he made
the US women's team faster, stronger, better. This team. Nobody
was going to beat the USA team. And I think
that the twenty thirty Olympics.
Speaker 5: Are in the US.
Speaker 9: There's no one's going to beat the US women's team.
They are. Canad's gonna have to get that. Canna's an
aging team. They're the Canadian women's team. Sixteen players from
the twenty twenty two Olympics, four holdovers from the twenty
eighteen Olympics. You got to get younger and you got
to retool your team. USA did it, and kudos to
that women's team. Man, they are absolute monsters.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm right there with yeah. I mean it was
it was definitely Leah a crazy run there. And as
Pres kind of said when he was on the show
last he was like, don't be shocked at this gold
medal game is a little bit closer than expected. So yeah,
I'm with you their karm. But now we can turn
the page. Man, NHL is going to be back all
the time. I mean, you've been here in the wager
talk today chat here while you guys had your little
brief you know, puck time recess and the folks need
puck time backcarm and it's coming back. But let's talk
a little bit about the playoff picture as you move
forward here, I guess you could call it the second
half of the NHL season. You know, it's really the
playoff push that's on. Now, how do you attack betting
some of these teams? And do any team stand out
to you as hey, this is a team you need
to be betting on or betting against. It's not like
NHL where you really see teams full on tanking or
anything like that. But how as you approaching the playoff
picture comes in the frame any teams that you're betting
or how do you just bet at more high level too.
Speaker 9: Yeah, the Olympic break wasn't a break for me because
I was going through pretty much, well not pretty much,
every single team schedule, seeing how many home games they
have left, how many away games they have left, back
to back situations, their strength of schedule coming in for
the remainder of the year, and then comparing their chances
to make the playoffs with prices that are being offered.
And this is another reason why you should have multiple books.
And I'm going to look at one of them right now,
and we'll start it right off with the top of
the alphabet, and that's the Anaheim Ducks. You look at
the Anaheim Ducks right now, they're holding on to the
final playoff spot. If you look at a couple of
sites like Moneypuck gives them a seventy five percent chance
of making the playoffs, Hockey Reference gives them a seventy
seven point one percent chance of a playoffs. You look
at it, and we talk about implied odds. There's different books,
and this is why you have to have multiple outs.
You can find the animi in ducks Anaheim Ducks to
make the playoffs at minus two forty, which the implied
probability is seventy point four of that happening. Much below
that number, there's books as high two eighty, where you're
paying the implied probability is seventy three point seven odds.
On the price that they're giving you never take the
two eighty because it is pretty much bang on with
what the what the statistical sites are telling you is
going to happen. So you look at the Ducks, and
this is a team that has what twenty six games
left in the regular season. They start at home seven
straight games, a seven game home stand Edmonton, Winnipeg, Calgary, Colorado,
New York, Colander's, Montreal, Saint Louis, hit the road for four,
and then it's sort of home away, home away, home away.
Seven of the eleven teams they play on the road.
Eleven games on the road is what they have left.
Seven of those teams are not in the playoffs and
have tough strength of schedules, So you have to look
at that is it's a very good road schedule for them.
Only three back to backs, which you would think there's
there's some teams with a ton of back to in
their last twenty one games.
Speaker 5: They only have three.
Speaker 9: Two of those come at home, so those are the
easiest ones because there's no travel. The only back to
back on the road is when they're in Ottawa and
then they play in Montreal the very next night. That
is a one hour trip from Ottawa to Montreal. So
it's very important to take travel into it. But Anaheim
right now and then the final factor of this is
this is a team that can make a move at
the trade deadline because they have twelve million dollars worth
the cap space, so they can go out and pick
up a veteran player that can help this team not
only in the dressing room but on the ice. The
Anahem Ducks are going to make the playoffs minus two forty.
You got to take them at minus two forty. I
know that sounds like a weird price, but when you
look at the probability of this team making the playoffs,
the setup for them, it is a play that I
think you have to make.
Speaker 4: Love the breakdown there, karm and plenty more to come
here on puck time. You and Andrew McGinnis left folks.
Now when the returns come in, Karen, also, let folks
know what you got rocking over at your page as
we move forward here, brother.
Speaker 9: Yeah, so a couple things. First of all, put Time
returns officially with the NHL schedule on Wednesday, but on
Tuesday's show, we're going to talk about I'm going to
host a show I've invited some of the other capers
to come on where we are going to talk about
how each individual capper is going to attack the rest
of the NHL season to get their thoughts because everyone
has a different way of getting value out of a number.
So Brian Lender will be there, the pen, Ralph Michaels
is going to be there with some stats as well too.
Speaker 5: Andrew mckinnis.
Speaker 9: I've yet to hear back from the pres and from
a Buster, but hopefully they can make it. I know
there's their schedules a little tough and Busters in Mexico,
so I just want to hear from a Buster to
start with. We'll see if he's still okay. That's gonna
be Tuesday eleven am. Tune in on a Wager Talk TV.
And then as far as my page, there was a
couple soccer plays for today. I think they might have
gone off right now. I have a five percent play
up in Champions League on Wednesday, back to back, back
to back winners Champions League last week and an MLS
winner on Saturday as they kicked off the new season.
Number one in NHL, sorry, number one in soccer in
twenty twenty six, and I finished the NHL prior to
the break on a seventeen and five NHL run. So
the powers that be put up a nice little offer
because the World Cup is right around the corner and
it is the Cup to cup special. You can get
the rest of the NHL season plus the playoffs and
then the World Cup that goes on this summer as well,
to get every single game. I'm going to seven different
games during the World Cup and hopefully more. I am
looking forward to it. I will be doing free plays
throughout the World Cup, but client plays as well too,
of course, and we're looking for another winning World Cup.
The last three years I've all been winning World Cup
up for us, so we'll try and continue that trend.
Speaker 4: Love it, karm and I'm glad to know that. The
Canadians said the demise was was greatly exaggerated. Carmine, a
representative north of the border, says, uh, we're all.
Speaker 5: Good and yeah, man, I'm just gonna chat. The chat
has had that is great. I'm just gonna stay one. Yeah,
like this is my thing. And every time he's like, god,
damn it.
Speaker 8: You know what I did.
Speaker 9: I took a nap after the game and then I
ordered myself a pizza and cracked open a bottle of
wine and I just watched Netflix.
Speaker 5: That's all. It takes a little bottle, bottle of wine.
Speaker 4: Some Netflix. There's not much. It can't care a karm
so KRM. Always a pleasure, buddy. Glad to see him,
and then.
Speaker 5: I'll talk to you soon. Brother, all right, take care.
I'm trying. I was just trying to like what.
Speaker 1: Would have been worse than this stuff the animal, because
that that was the most awkward.
Speaker 3: Like I don't know, like a muffin, No, the muffin
has a benefit, you know what I mean.
Speaker 5: The muffin has a benefit. Have a blueberry muffin. You're
feeling right his rain, you know what I mean? Like
this is this is I think AWB nailed it.
Speaker 4: Where it's like, you know, you give it to your kid,
you're just like, you know, a screw it, and then
every time you walk in they're.
Speaker 5: Like this is my favorite, my favorite stuff.
Speaker 7: Dan.
Speaker 4: Remember this, Dad, when you got worked by the USA
Hockey team in overtime, it's.
Speaker 5: Just it's brutal.
Speaker 1: Remember when you dominated time of possession and lost it
in three v three?
Speaker 5: Remember Dad, because you played.
Speaker 4: You played the hottest goalie that I've ever seen in
any sport.
Speaker 8: The dude.
Speaker 4: How about that where the goal was completely open, Andy,
he leans back like he's in the matrix.
Speaker 5: Gets it just on like the hair of the stick.
Speaker 4: I mean, absolutely, absolutely incredible effort, and that if that
net mining doesn't happen, Andy, you're not talking.
Speaker 5: About the USA IS champions.
Speaker 4: I mean it was an absolute domination as far as
you said, and the time of possession scoring chances, you know,
threatening as well. But all that matters is who gets
in in the back of the net at the right time. Man.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Also, I mean Nathan McKennon missing the I mean the
widest open net he's gonna see probably for the rest
of his less unless unless he has an empty netnor.
Speaker 1: But oh yeah, that one. That's that's the kind that
will keep you up at night. So uh.
Speaker 5: Again, you got you might be able to use it.
Speaker 2: And the stuffed animal like he was saying in the chat,
like there's a lot of athletes that were thrilled to
get a bronze or a silver, so it like it
made sense.
Speaker 1: But just like in the moment, you're like, oh no,
they're not off over time. They're not going to give
the stuffed animals, are they?
Speaker 5: Oh they are? Oh god, oh they are? Oh no,
all right, Well let's bring in Steve Merrill. Steve, did
you get up? Watch the hockey? The hockey game?
Speaker 8: So, I'm a big fan of THEVR in games, and
as you know, Andy like watching NASCAR and fast forward.
I did that with the dayto one of five hundred
last week. I don't watch much NASCAR anymore, but I
literally did not see the result Sunday night last week.
Was able to fast forward to the last three laps,
knowing that's all that was gonna matter. Watched it all
so busy man yesterday on Sunday, so I was not
getting out. I was up a little after eight am,
but I wanted to do stuff, so I knew there
was no way I could avoid the result. But I'm
out and about went to the gym late morning. Didn't
check the slack threads. I knew not to check wager
talk for me the slap threads never that, and one
of the realist Americans I know, my buddy, Justin Briski
is in a chest thread with my sister and some
other people knew I couldn't check that chat thread because
he was freaking out. He didn't sleep all night, and
so I was pretty good and I saw some stuff
pinging about ten fifty eleven o'clock, so I figured the
game had ended. I'm still at the gym and like,
I'm pretty much offline here. I'm like, I'm gonna be
able to get home and watch this and not know
what happened. And I see a guy just never talk
sports betting with me in a million years, and I'm
talking about some other stuff, skiing or whatever, and I'm
like stretching out about to leave. I hear him talking
to his buddy like, yeah, had the two team parlor
USA and the under. I've never even heard this guy
talk about betting before. He's probably like a five dollar bet.
So I kind of had a feeling that's what had happened.
I accidentally glanced at Twitter on my phone to update
my tweets. It's all Ian Rappaport had a us I'd
like a gold medal picture, but I didn't see it.
But I was like, he's an NFL guy. That's probably
not good. And the kicker, some guy never seen in
my life walks from the front desk. Asked the guy checking,
and he's like, blah blah blah. Oh, I didn't watch
the game. What he's like, first time since nineteen eighty
I'm like mother, So that was a question. So I
went from like fifty percent to seventy percent to like
ninety five percent. I thought I knew what happened. I
still watched it, but man, that would have been fun
to watch because I could have you know, it's hard
to watch hockey fast forward. I kind of go to
like power plays and then watch and then, but I
would have gotten down to the last three minutes watch live.
And when I watched the overtime live and had no clue.
What I will point out though, is, you know, basically
it was a three on one break to score the
deflection at the other end is the announcers were saying
it was going to be a Canadian two on nothing break.
That's how close it was, which no one's talking about,
but Canada wins that if that puck doesn't get tipped
the other way to the US. I love the three
on three the NHL, and you know they do four
and four now, right, isn't that what they move to
a while agoing overtime?
Speaker 5: Is am I correct?
Speaker 8: I don't watch a lot of NHL anymore.
Speaker 1: I believe it's still it's still the three on three.
I love the three on three.
Speaker 5: I saw that on the NHL three on three.
Speaker 4: Like a lot of people, a lot of people are like,
I can't believe, you know, three on three hockey is
what decides it. However, you know what I mean, Like,
it's not like I would I would way rather have
that than a shootout one thousand percent times. Yeah, because
it's it's still okay, the ice is more open, but
it's still hockey in its essence, you know what I mean.
Speaker 8: So I think it's ninety nine pers I think it's
one hundred percent real hockey. It's the same reason like
rugby sevens is better than a real rugby. I mean,
I love watching the rugby sevens in the summer Olympics. Yeah,
I think it's a legit way to win. I think
nothing is worse than the World Cup that they go
to a shootout. It's just an elimination games in World
time games, and yet another reason why soccer has issues.
And they need an off sideline by the way in soccer.
Speaker 5: Like they have in hockey.
Speaker 8: Something we've talked about hockey. Maybe soccer could solve it, Andy,
by taking the goals and smushing them to half field
and then going like shrinking. Yeah, because I say soccer
could do it. But the field's too big, right, you
take forever? Oh see, I've.
Speaker 2: I've thought I've always thought that the soccer overtime should
be three v two starting at midfield, two defenders.
Speaker 8: Three shootout.
Speaker 1: You're saying, yeah, and you have like twenty five seconds
to score.
Speaker 8: That's a great call, Andy, I'm stealing that.
Speaker 5: I thought.
Speaker 4: Is you start, you take one player off, and then
you have in like five minute increments, you remove a player,
You remove a player.
Speaker 8: Yeah, the field's too big though.
Speaker 5: It's too big of a field though, that's the thing
I guess.
Speaker 4: Yeah, you would have to scale it down. You would
have to people moving in the goals at the same time.
Speaker 5: Yeah, you're you're right.
Speaker 8: I like the shootout style with motion, Andy, that's a
great call. Actually I've never heard that before.
Speaker 2: I think maybe soccer photogenic looks good. You have that
wide shot and it's a lot more exciting.
Speaker 9: Uh.
Speaker 8: And it's not a shootout. The bottom lines, it's not
like a one oh one shootout, which is just insane.
Plus a percentage on that is like what ninety percent,
which people don't realize that the NHL is like ten percent.
It's like the reverse opposite of it. It's very difficult
to make shootouts in the NHL, which has always surprised
me as well. Oh last thing on the stuffed animal,
I didn't realize they did that. Actually missed that part.
But the first thing I thought of this carvasold. That
is one of my favorite movies Animal House. When they're
calling up the guys to set them up for the
date where they're gonna beat them up, and the guys
holding the stuffed animals, holding the bear on the edge
of the bed. He's choking it the whole time. When
she gets thought, the pony just goes boom and she
goes teddy. Gonna be like in all those Canadian households,
that's freaking.
Speaker 2: Close spots oh over under ten of them that got
thrown away.
Speaker 5: Like, oh yeah, most of them did not make them
back on the plane.
Speaker 1: They're not making the trip home.
Speaker 8: There's no way they should have given him the missing tooth.
They like blacked out the tooth or something on the stitches,
the old stitches, the cross.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, Steve, you got some games of breakdown here.
Speaker 5: We're going to do three of them.
Speaker 6: Now.
Speaker 2: I'm interested to take on Spurs on Pistons. I've got
opinion on that game. But let's start with college basketball.
I'll let you do both games as one. We're gonna
do the ESPN doubleheader Louisville, North Carolina, Houston and Kansas.
Speaker 1: How do you break these two games down?
Speaker 8: Yeah, there are only two, only two college basketball games
on the main rotation tonight. There's like seven extra games,
but they're both big ones. ESPN Doubleheader. We're gonna look
at both free plays and analysis sides and totals, even
some team totals for you here, right here, right now.
Quick reminder if you are my personal best bets each day,
they're available on my page wager talk dot com Steve Merrill.
And also a bonus free play in the NBA tonight,
just three NBA games. I got one of your Peacock
games free for you on my page at wager talk
dot com. Steve merrillwager talk dot com, get there, quicker,
wt dot buzz, slash sm All right, it's your seven
o'clock Eastern game in Chapel Hill. You wouldn't see a
home dog. In fact, both big name teams Kansas and
you and see your home dogs night on Monday. And
North Carolina is shorthanded. They lost one of the most
important players in the country three and a half games
ago and he remains out, Caleb Wilson, great freshman six
foot ten freshmen averaging almost twenty points a game over
nine rebounds a game. And U and C has gone
two and one without him, alternated wins and losses. They
beat Pittsburgh at home, lost at n C State, and
then they had a nice win at Syracuse this past
Saturday by thirteen points. And I think that could be
actually the buy sign here for U and C. They're
learning to play without the big man. They still have
a lot of size another seven foot right behind them.
And Louisville is a team that relies heavily on the
three point shot. And you live by the three, you
died by the three, and that always makes handicap in
Louisville games a little difficult because obviously they're hitting the threes,
they're going to win, and it's hard to sometimes predict that.
But one thing you could start doing is looking at
road games against good teams. I think that's a difficult
spot for teams to make threes. And I remember we
talked about a game about a few weeks ago Miamia
of Florida at Miami back on the tenth of February,
as a slight road favorite. They lose that game outright
by nine. They only shot twenty nine and a half
percent from three. You look at another road game recently
at NC State on the seventeenth, lesson a week ago.
They lose that one, got blown out by twenty four.
And that's a situation North Carolina I'm talking about right now.
North Carolina was only fifteen percent from three in that game.
But on the road is a different story than at home.
In North Carolina does not rely heavily on the three
point shot like Louisville does. Louisville, meanwhile, as I mentioned,
realized heavily on the three, and you look at some
of their recent road games at Duke, a game I
talked about here a wager talk today a month ago,
late January. They lost that game by thirty one. They
shot just thirty two percent from three point range in
that game. They beat up a bad Pittsburgh team on
the road. They took care of Wake on the road
as a nine point favorite, but a neutral site game
against Baylor a nice win there. But then they regressed
against SMU recently, another acc road game, losing by ten.
Shot less than thirty eight percent from three in that range.
So I think there are going to be challenged night
because un C is a team that does not allow
a lot of three point shots. They have a mediocre
three point d but they don't give up a lot
of threes that defend the perimeter, and they're very strong
down low. Also, they do not allow teams to get
to the free throw line, So I think Louisville could
be limited tonight. You can look at you U and
C if you're worried about their star big man freshman
being out. You could also look at the under heres
a little bit of a hedge, and it's a big
number one sixty two here. Both teams play fast, but
if Louisville's not hitting those threes. I think the unders
in play. And of course if you lean you and
c and lean Louisville lean under, then the Louisville team
total under eighty two makes a lot of sense. Really,
like team totals in college basketball, some sportsbooks still don't
off from which tells you something right there that they're winnable,
they're beatable. I think Louisville team total under eighty two
makes a lot of sense. In your seven o'clock Eastern
game on ESPN, All right, well look at your late
game here in the Big twelve, and this is a
good one Kansas and Houston.
Speaker 5: And on the surface, whenever.
Speaker 8: You can get one of the best teams in the country,
the Houston Cougar's off back to back losses, you think
that would be worth the lie. But the thing is
Kansas is coming out of losses in two of their
last three games against a really good Iowa State team
on the road. And keep in mind, we talked about
they gave last Monday on Wait to Talk To Day
and I liked I was State in that one. And
also keep in mind, I'm sorry that was Saturday on
my Top twenty five video of previous Saturday on Valentine's Day,
came back with I was stayed on Monday last week
when they won again at home against Houston. So we've
talked about I was staated against both of these teams
in recent videos and shows. But one thing I pointed
out in that Iowa State video about a week and
a half ago was that Kansas embarrassed I was State.
I was stayed lost by twenty one on the road
as a favorite back in January, so it was a
big revenge spot for Iowa State, and then Kansas got
back on track against Oklahoma State on the road NIC's
twelve point win last Wednesday. Thought it was a good
spot for them on Saturday. I went two and one
on Saturday. The only game I missed in college hoops
Saturday for my clients was on Kansas and they lost
outright as a good sized home favorite against Cincinnati. Not
a red flag for me either. I think this is
a bounce back spot tonight. And while Houston also back
to back losses, I think they're not as a good
current form and that is a concern here. And it's
also a difficult road trip on just one day's rest.
After that huge game at home against Arizona on Saturday.
Krueger's also often struggle offensively. We've seen that in recent games.
And here again, I think the team total is in play.
Houston currently about a one and a half to two
point road favorite. Totals around one thirty eight. It opened
one thirty six. We've actually seen some sharp money come
on in the over. I do not agree with the
over because I think this Houston offense is struggling right now.
In fact, Houston has scored in the sixties here in
most of their recent games. If you look at the
team total for this one, odds makers right now have
this one right around seventy and a half to sixty
nine and a half seventy a half, so we'll say
seventy for the Houston team total. I like the team
total for Houston under tonight. They have scored sixty seven
points or less in three of their last four games,
and we're getting them on the road in a tough
spot tonight with a team total of seventy. Take a
look at the Houston Cougars under seventy team total that
game at nine o'clock Easter and and I two really
good games for you on ESPN National TV.
Speaker 2: Let's get your take on this uh Spurs Pistons game tonight.
I had an opinion on the total, not going to
tell you what it is, so I want to get
your take. See if you dialed in on the spread
or the total.
Speaker 1: In this game.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 8: So there are three three NBA games tonight, small NBA card,
three of them, but it's a good card. And two
of these three games are on National TV on Peacock
and the first one is Spurs Pistons. By the way,
I do have a bonus free play on the late
Peacock game Jazz Rockets for you right now on my
page Steve merrillwager Talk dot com. You go get that
late NBA free play at wt dot buzz slash sm
along with two college basketball best bets tonight on Monday.
But this is your first national TV game Spurs Pistons.
Both squad's pretty healthy and we have seen a little
bit of movement to the over under in this one,
currently sitting in about two thirty two after opening around
two thirty one. Piston's currently about a one and a
half point favorite that's held pretty steady all day long,
and this could have a playoff atmosphere. These teams play
again on March fifth, and these are two of the
best teams from each conference. Two young and up and
coming teams, and we often look for the under in
a playoff atmosphere, high intensity game, but the problem is
both offenses an excellent current form. In fact, the Spurs
enter this game having shot fifty two percent or better
now in four of their last five games. This is
a team that won six great straight games before the
All Star Break, and they did not regress any back
to back wins since the break. Pistons also entered the
break in good current form, winning six of their final seven,
and they've won back to back games as well. Pistons
have also, by the way, covered five straight going back
to the start of February. Another team that's an excellent
current form. Offensively, I'll lean towards the home team in
this one. These are two teams that really have a
chance to go deep in the NBA playoffs, even with
limited experience. In a basically straight up win situation, we'll
go with the Detroit Pistons here minus the one one
and a half on the strong home core tonight and
kind of hope Detroit wins this one, maybe by margin,
because then it won't set up actually a pretty good
revenge spot in a couple weeks next Thursday, I believe,
on March fifth, when they play in San Antonio. So
we'll keep it on the game tonight. I lean Pistons,
and it could set up a good bounce back spot
if we get the Pistons with the Spurs. These are
two solid teams in excellent current form, and I think
this one goes down to the wire tonight, but I
like Detroit to get it done at home as a
small favorite. And don't forget if you're liking the free
play videos, thumbs up like comment below, click subscribe and
click the bell for ins and alert so you never
miss out when a free play video is posted here
on wager Talk TV. And once again bonus NBA free
play in the late Peacock game Jazz rockets right now
Steve merrillwager Talk dot com and get there quicker, wt
dot buzz slash sm.
Speaker 1: Great work, Steve Merrill, Thank you very much. They were there.
It was an absolutely fantastic way to slide in that
you go to the gym.
Speaker 5: You know, I was getting up early.
Speaker 8: O ye, yeah, yeah, that's yeah, that's exactly what I Yeah,
exactly as you guys know, that's exactly what I was doing,
flexing it like this is flex money with the pres
going in here and doing like this.
Speaker 5: So I wanted to get some stuff.
Speaker 7: Yeah.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 8: It just shows you can say something and a hundred
people take it one way, but one guy takes.
Speaker 5: It another way. Definitely not how I would have read that.
Speaker 8: That com that was about his nonchalant way of saying
I went to the gym, and I said, I was
stretching out. It's not like I was escalating myself. I
was stretching out and doing some poses and relaxing. Yeah,
I mean, I didn't think there was a chance i'd
get back home within a few hours and not have
heard the result or seen it somewhere in hindsight, though
it really wasn't those two guys. When I was trying
to update some tweets from my best bet side yesterday
on my phone, I accidentally had on the main page,
you know, and I saw like it you could see
like gold medal moment or something it said, and it
was Ian Rappaport.
Speaker 5: I just I glanced.
Speaker 8: I'm like, ah, I was like and that maybe he's Canadian,
but I was like, I'm pretty sure he's American.
Speaker 5: He's an NFL guy.
Speaker 2: So I was like, I was like, it's impossible these
days to try and not hear a score of a
sporting event.
Speaker 1: You could do it years ago, but you can't do
it now.
Speaker 5: So I almost got by with a women's game.
Speaker 8: And I was at my middle school, not basketball anymore now,
how it's baseball, and the coach told me he'd cast
with the USC women.
Speaker 5: Like at four o'clock of the afternoon the other day.
Speaker 8: There's no way I would have heard anything otherwise because
no one's talking women's hockey with me, and man, that
would have been a fun game. Not to know the
result is us fast forwarding through it that night. So man, yeah,
it's tough. It's tough when they're over.
Speaker 1: In Italy as well as all.
Speaker 2: Right, Steve, thanks very thanks luck on your place. Thanks
for joining us, Steve Merrill. We're gonna get to some
free places here real quick. But Dan, I wanted to
bring up a couple thoughts on NBA. You know, remember
how we talked about how the New York Knicks were
on an unsustainable streak for covering spreads.
Speaker 1: They were nine and one. Last five games they are
one and four.
Speaker 2: We also talked about the number one spread covering team
before the All Star Break for the whole season was
the Phoenix Suns.
Speaker 1: They are in big, big trouble. They just lost.
Speaker 2: Well, first off, they're one three and one against spread
and they are now out Devin Booker and they're out
Dylan Brooks. Philip Brooks is the heart and sold that team.
They I watched them last night because I had a
player prop in there.
Speaker 1: They cannot score. They scored seventy seven points in the.
Speaker 2: Whole game in the NBA, in the NBA, in a
whole game, and the game before that it took two
overtimes for them to get to one hundred and thirteen points.
They are in rough shape. That is an under team,
that is a fade against the spread type of team.
Like I said, I watched them last night, boy or
they got real trouble coming along. So all right, let's
do some free plays before we get out of here.
Let's do WTFLFG for the people. Nice big winner on
the lacrosse Scotti Scheffler came up short.
Speaker 1: Did not finish in the top five so I believe
we're twenty six and eighteen.
Speaker 5: That's what I have. I hold it up for yeap No.
Speaker 4: Twenty six eighteen is where we stand at here, Andy,
And yeah, I was thinking, Hey, do we go lacrosse?
Speaker 5: Do we not?
Speaker 3: I've been thanks though, folks were hopping in here. Hey
you won on Harvard.
Speaker 5: Great.
Speaker 4: We called outright the fourteenth team in the nation, beating
the number one team in the nation. We said, bet
the money line plus two seventy. It was around that
we got at home. So I'm glad we helped you
cash over the weekend, folks, and we gave it to
you free here on wager Talk. So all you ask
you to do, folks like interact with the show, comment,
tell folks about the show, share it, and if you
haven't already subscribed, So Andy, we're gonna do a little
epl action here for the folks. I talked with Karen,
my soccer guy, and he Lukewarm gave me a thumbs
up on taking the half goal today. Guys, with Everton,
Everton's playing man you here's the thought process for me,
is Everton how they've been hanging around for a playoff spot?
Speaker 5: Here?
Speaker 4: Andy, they're right around at their eighth and they're playing
a man You team who's ranked fifth right now here
in the EPL table. How it's worked out for Everton
is they have been road warriors. Most of their successes
come on the road, so now they're actually playing at
home home, that's usually a bet against or at least
a pass for Everton. However, the team that they're facing
today menu sitting in that fifth spot. They have been
absolute dogs at home Man You plus ten on the
goal differential in their home games. However, on the road
they've scored twenty two Andy and they've.
Speaker 5: Allowed twenty two. They are a draw.
Speaker 3: They are a you know, keep close games kind of team.
Speaker 5: They don't dominate teams on the road.
Speaker 4: So if I'm Everton and we're saying, hey, if we
really want this playoff spot, we are going to need
to finally figure out something in our own home stadium,
this is.
Speaker 5: The kind of team you can do it against.
Speaker 4: So you know the full on play won't be take
that plus two eighty five plus two to ninety money line.
I would sprinkle that for sure, but I would probably
bet my my flat unit on taking the half goal.
With Everton, it's around minus one ten, minus one fifteen,
as high as minus one twenty. Take the half goal
because if we tie in this game, which I could
see a one to one tibee in the final, you're
still cash in your ticket there, Andy, and you have
chance to get that money line home. So I'm taking
the half goal with Evertt and that is our WTF
or LFG play.
Speaker 5: Let us know, folks if you are following or fading
in that one.
Speaker 4: Like it?
Speaker 5: Like it?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna chat.
Speaker 5: Brought up.
Speaker 2: I saw this that Phoenix plays Boston tomorrow. Boston could
run them out of the gym. The Boston Boston does
not stop shy threes that one could get out of control.
Be interested to see what the line suttles at tomorrow.
So all right, let's do some free plays all around
the world. Then we're gonna get out of here. So
we'll do a couple of player props here. Grizzlies, Kings
Russell Westbrook. We're gonna take his under twenty and a
half points, rebounds and assists.
Speaker 1: There's a Kings team that is tanking. They're not interested
in winning.
Speaker 2: In two games since coming back from the All Star Break,
his usage and minutes are down. He only played seventeen
and twenty two minutes. He had six and twelve points, rebounds,
and assists in those two games. Shot attempts are down,
field goal percentages down. His body language looks terrible. He
doesn't care.
Speaker 1: Why should he? The team doesn't care. Dan he has
three total rebounds the last two games and three total
assists the last two games. This is starting point guard three.
Speaker 2: Assists totally the last two games. So Russell Westbrook is
a fade. I'm also fading Amen Thompson. I know it's
a great matchup tonight, but he plays a ton of minutes.
He doesn't get very many shots. He shoots about eight
per game. He's shooting forty seven percent from the field.
He has not hit a three in his last three games,
and he doesn't shoot too many free throws. So I'm
gonna take the under sixteen and a half points.
Speaker 1: This is a client play.
Speaker 5: You can put it in.
Speaker 2: I'm a little worried about the second leg not being
played because they're playing at Mexico. I don't know if
they're gonna continue to play these games, but I'll just
reach you the write up. This is a women's doubles
parlay here Hunter and Townsend. I have them winning two
zero over Sterns and Williams. This is Venus Williams Dan,
She's forty five. She's forty five years old playing doubles.
Her last two matches her team got drubbed to zero.
Stearns has only played one doubles tournament since January, one
hundred Towns and huge big edge. Townsend is the number
three ranked doubles player.
Speaker 1: So I like one hundred towns and to win two zero.
Speaker 2: And then Busa and Jiang over Stevens and Sanchez. Steven
Th and Sanchez they have zero experience playing together, and
Stevens pretty much only wins on doubles when she's with
a really top ranked player.
Speaker 1: Sanchez is not the other team.
Speaker 2: Jiang and Buska their thirty six top thirty six ranked
players tons of experience. Buska has won five out of
six first round matches this year. Jiang has not been
playing with great players, but it looks like she's decided to.
We'll step up the quality of my doubles partner in
this tournament. So you parlay those together gets you about
minus one twenty, but again fifty to fifty.
Speaker 1: Whether that second leg even takes place. If it does,
I like where we're sitting, so love.
Speaker 5: It all right?
Speaker 1: That is that is gonna do andy.
Speaker 2: Any thoughts on Phoenix winning forty five point five games.
I'd have to see what their NBA standings are at.
That is a great question. I think I need confirmation
on what Dylan Brooks's final injury is. It's a broken hand.
I don't know if he's gonna be out. But like listen,
Dylan Brooks, he's kind of won the battle of what's
his reputation. Everywhere he goes, they win and they get better,
which is weird because he's a villain. But for whatever reason,
they just do really, really well. They have thirty three now,
so that means they would have to Devin Booker better
get his behind in the starting lineup. But he's out
for another He's out for another week or so, so
this is not looking good for Phoenix.
Speaker 5: I'll look it up.
Speaker 2: We'll decide what we're gonna do with Boston tomorrow in
the season win totals great quest. I'll have that as
a free play tomorrow one with the other. All right,
thanks for joining us, guys. Remember put your wager Talk
user name in the comment section. If I go three
and zero on my NBA picks that I did at
the beginning of the show, somebody will win a free
day pass. Please like and subscribe, good look on all
your bets, and we will be back tomorrow, same time,
same place.
Speaker 1: See you tomorrow. Take care,