Speaker 1: Welcome away.
Speaker 2: You talk today the gold standard of sports betting shows
where we talk to talk and walk the walk. It's Monday.
We are loaded. We got Game seven baseball tonight. We've
got two Monday night football plays. Yanni's gonna kick it
off with the Steam Report, Crackman's gonna give us a
Monday Night Football prop, and Steve Merrill's gonna join us.
We're gonna break down both games and we're gonna talk
about Game seven. It's a big, big day for betters
across every sport. We got you covered. Let's bring in
Yanni and you guys please hit that like button algorithm
boots boost time. It's time to time to boost that algorithm. Yanni.
I know you're tired. Thanks for getting up. That's a long,
long traveling day out to Vancouver.
Speaker 3: Yes, sir, but I starting a new weekend, coming off
a losing Sunday man. I had a los An NFL
day was ugly after such a great day in college
football Wolston MMA. Having a losing year in MMA after
coming off one of my best years in MMA. Twenty
twenty five has not been good. But luckily college football
still number one had another winning week. I think I've
won now eight of the last eight of nine weeks
or nine to ten weeks wherever we are in college football.
Like I said, coming off a losing NFL week, but
last week was my first college football losing week. Bounced
back this weekend with a huge week, so I'm excited
about the NFL ahead. We got two games tonight as well,
got a game seven. So yes, a big, big weekend.
Real quickly going to dive into the game seven. First,
we're in uncharted territory like this, wins losses. The way
it's gone down hasn't happened before. I think only one
other time in all of the Major League Baseball rounds
has it a series ever played out like this. Remember
the road team won the first two games in both series.
Dodgers won the first two in Milwaukee and Seattle won
the first two in Toronto. That had happened fifteen times
in Major League Baseball playoffs. Fourteen of those times, the
team that won the those two games on the road
won the series, like Seattle was able to do. But
that just hasn't happened. It happened for the Dodgers. They
got it done. But Seattle right now is not in
a good spot. We know Game sevens home teams. You know,
they're usually in that sixty percent sixty plus percent win
rate long term. Obviously, home field advantage matters a lot.
So this is a band spot for Seattle. I'm biased.
I have a future on Seattle. But more importantly, I've
played this future horrifically. I didn't the hedge before the
season the series started. Instead, I said, let me take
it getting by game I hedged by taking Toronto in
game one, a little bit, Seattle won. That's a good thing.
Took Toronto and game two a little bit Seattle won.
Speaker 1: Game two.
Speaker 3: That's a good thing. I said, Now we're historically we're
in such a good spot. Let's just sit back and
let Seattle win this series. Well, that hasn't happened. And
every time I went and hedged a little bit, I
ended up losing. So now I'm in a difficult I
find myself where I have forty units pending on Seattle,
but I've already lost about twelve to fifteen of those
trying the hedge. So I'm in a tough spot in
game seven where I shouldn't be. And this is just
a perfect example that no matter how much experience do
you have, how seasoned you are at doing this like that.
The market's gonna throw curveballs at you and you just
got to try to minimize losses and maximize profit when
that time comes. So I have a couple hours to
figure out tonight's game. Here's what's happening. It's all one
side of Toronto money from the recreational betters, and no surprise,
they're the hot team right now. All the pressure is
now back on Seattle more or less because Toronto's not
even supposed to be in this spot, having lost, you know,
those first two games. It's being bet Toronto and the
over as well. I haven't seen any betting sin to
get money. So this line moving off from that one
twenty two to one twenty eight, one twenty five, one
point thirty. It's all public money related. It's all risk
that's starting to mount on the Toronto side and the
over as well, but both both are public money related.
Recreational better is getting involved and we haven't seen the
bettingston to get step up yet. It'll be interested to
see if we get any sharp money yet, but I
haven't seen it. If anything, it'll probably be on some
player prompts, it'll probably be on maybe a run in
the first standing. That's that's the kind of stuff I've
been seeing the accounts late. I haven't seen many signs.
I haven't seen many totals at all in Major League
Baseball playoffs. So again I'm cheering in for Seattle. But
those are for bias reasons, not a handicap.
Speaker 2: Are you Are you in a hedge? We're gonna have to.
Speaker 3: You're exactly I'm forced to now because of the way
I approached it, just to even even if Toronto wins,
just to limit some of that hedge loss. You know,
I probably should have just took in Toronto when the
season series started because I had so much equity. But
to have that kind of equity forty units and not profit,
that's amateur hour, Like I really failed myself and my subscribers.
If we don't turn a profit like now, I'm hoping
to beat a product of good luck and have Seattle win.
That's not a position, as the sport's better you ever
want to be in where where you're you're hoping like,
we're not in the hope business. We try to be
in the certainty business, and the hope business is not
a good thing to be in. And tonight Yanni's in
the Hope business.
Speaker 2: It's very well, very well said. Yeah, I feel like
I've been in the Hope business for the last last
few months. It's it's not been a good run. I
was terrible in UFC. WE I mean, I don't know
anybody that made money on that card.
Speaker 3: It was that kind of part.
Speaker 2: It was an ugly cars card.
Speaker 3: The closing line value didn't matter even when you had
the right side. The judges messed it up or the
ref messed it up, like it was just one of
those cards and you just got to sweep it under
the rug. You've crushed mma like you just got it.
Like I always say, when in doubt, zoom out. Whenever
you get buried like that and have a bad day,
zoom out. Look at your results. It puts everything back
in perspective that you know what you're talking about. There's
just a lot of randomness in the short term. Move
on to the next one. Oh real quickly, star, I
don't forget. There's three free tennis moves up at Wage
to Talk. I released three tennis bets to my subscribers.
Those lines move a lot, so I only put them
out for like two or three percent plays and share
it with them. We're gonna have a little release for upcoming,
a little announcement on some of those steam moves with
Johnny probably later this week, so you guys could get
more access to them. But they're up there for free.
There's three premiums that I sent to subscribers. There's three
percent plays in tennis that go off late tonight or
tomorrow morning. Now nfl Andy favorites in over no surprise.
In the Lions and Buccaneers. The Lion's risk just continues
to mount. What's weird is the look ahead was five
to five and a half I think, and fifty three
and a half we saw the line come down a
little bit then boom boom, nothing but Detroit money. The
total hasn't moved all that much from that look ahead,
even though it's really one sided. So you're getting a
lot of Detroit and over money. I think there's also
a lot of Detroit risk for moneyline parlays and teasers
probably from yesterday. Favorites did okay, So it's gonna be
interesting to see if they bump this up to that
key seven. I doubt it I don't think that's gonna happen,
But the total not moving up is kind of telling.
Like to see some of the a Circa have fifty
two and a half and DraftKings have fifty three and
a half, it kind of tells you, at least where
the sharper opinion seems to be on a lower scoring game,
where the recreational betters tend to bet these games over,
so it looks like they're getting a little short money
on that under in that first game. In the second game,
it's sitting on that key number of three, and we've
seen nothing but Seattle money early on. Again, that's the
later of the two games, so that usually split money
comes in as the day progresses, even after that first
game kicks off. But I don't think that's gonna change.
I think you're gonna continue to get Seattle money. I
think you're gonna continue to see Detroit money. The only
key is will they come off that key three or
will they ever get the seven with Detroit where I
don't think so. I think as long as one of
those dogs stick their head out, the books will end
up doing just fine. Again, personally, I haven't taken a
position on either of these games. Yet I kind of
like Detroit. That's what I used for bet on It
when we did the show. That was the game they
gave me, the TV game, the Breakdown. I thought the buckety,
I thought the Lions decent spot to bounce back. But
I mean, I don't know that. I don't I don't
like where it's sitting at six. I think that line
should have probably moved already a little bit higher, if
you got any respect. So that worries me.
Speaker 2: With the paper, there's one massive, massive concern with Detroit
a Monday night game that the public is all over
one side. That's that's a recipe for disaster. I get it.
I know the stat Dan Campbell and the Lions are
insanely good after a loss and home and Monday night.
But I'm pretty I'm pretty surprised that the Bucks aren't
getting I mean, Baker Mayfields like there's MVP talk. You know,
I just figured there'd be a lot of hype around
this Bucks team's not but it's been one way track.
Speaker 3: And could I just mention because I know we got
Crack coming up behind and I actually stick around to
listen to what he's got to say. So I'm interested,
especially with a Monday, But we got to talk about
college football really quick because I hate to say I
told you so, but I kind of told you so. Eventually,
the cream's going to rise to the top, and you
got to really pay attention to strength of schedule. I've
never got so much pushback as I did when I
talked about how Texas was better than Oklahoma at least
power rating wise, and they looked at me like I
was crazy, Like I don't even watch the sport. And
then when I talked about the Texas Tech not be
that big of a favorite. They've had a very easy schedule,
that's why they're undefeated. Again, I was talked like I
was an idiot. I don't watch this stuff. I can't
express this enough. The rankings in college football are based
on a record and nothing else, especially early on in
the season. The fact that I looked up today and
saw that Georgia Tech is the seventh team in the
nation tells you everything you need to know right there.
Do you know that Georgia Tech's not even in my
top thirty Right now? Ohio State, I'm telling you, right now,
Ohio State would be a three touchdown favorite at least
over Georgia Tech. So the fact Georgia Tech is in
the top ten is ridiculous. But they're seven and oh
that tells you everything. Miami, how fake? Was Miami a
number two? Why? Because they were five and oh? That's
how you take advantage of college football, these overrated teams
that are ranked based on their schedule. And then I
look and I see Notre Dame, Notre names down it
like number twelve, number thirteen proa. There's only like two
teams that would be favored over No. To Dame on
a neutral Ohio State, Oregon and maybe Alabama's a pick
them to them. But the record means nothing like those teams.
The Texas is the Georgia's.
Speaker 4: Penn State three and four Penn State would be favored
over Georgia Tech by more than ten points. I'm telling
you that a three and four Penn State team would
be favored.
Speaker 3: Now that's maybe the books wouldn't make them a ten
point favorite because they got to manage risk. But if
they brought them out at like a seven point favorite,
rest of short, they would get steamed up with ten
point favorite because most power ratings would reflect that. But
I'm telling you teams like Utah, teams like LSU teams
like Iowa Washington, those two loss teams would all be
favored over Georgia Tech. So be careful paying attention to
those rankings. Use them, use them to take advantage of
the narrative. Texas A and M number three team in
the country. Are we smoke? What are we talking about?
Are we? Are we serious? Right now? Texas Tech's barely
in the top ten. I mean Texas A and M.
I'll tell you right now, I have them like fifteenth, sixteenth.
So yeah, sorry, I just had to. I just had
to bring that out because I've gotten so much pushback
the last two weeks, pushing back against these undefeated teams
that I thought were phonies.
Speaker 2: Well, I gotta tell you, on Tuesdays, I've made two
bets in a row going I supported Georgia Tech going
ahead to head against Jesse, and I won both of them.
So I love my Georgia Tech team.
Speaker 3: They've been Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech.
Speaker 2: They've they've been cashing some some some made up tickets
for me going ahead and to head against That's all that, Matt,
It's just that's all it matters, no matter what else
do you got for us, Johnny, anything else?
Speaker 1: That's it?
Speaker 3: No, no, no, I'm already getting getting my week ready, Gonna
dig into the Monday night, see if I could confirm
my strong leans and then start looking ahead to the
rest of the week. Excited. Back back in Vegas, stability,
don't have any trips planned, so it's back to the grind, baby,
back to the grind that's had some profit and uh
await to dodge a college basketball in NBA. That's what
I'm excited about.
Speaker 2: Tell the UFC story about the van.
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, here, there's funny they have, Like, uh yeah,
I had the best access I ever had in my life.
Usually they have a ticket for you waiting at will Cole,
but they did us a solid, Like they put me
down in the front row, like right behind where they
were calling the fights. Like you don't even have a
ticket for those seats, Like they just put tape with
your name on it, and like your badge lets you
down there. It was amazing with that. I had car
service back and forth to the arena. So they had
a couple like uh tinted out Mercedes vans uh taking
fighters families back and forth. Long story short, in front
of the hotel is nothing but fans. I've never been
on the road with the UFC, so I never saw
anything like this before. Dude. There's so many people waiting
at the hotel in the freezing cold, even if it's
raining at two in the more, hoping to get a
glimpse of a fighter, a picture with a fighter, assign something.
And they're all right there at our hotel. Because we're
staying at the host hotel. I get I have to
go back to the hotel. I'm all by myself in
this van. We're pulling up, Dude, I see like a rush,
no lie, no exaggeration. Fifty plus people running to surround
this van, all excited, cameras out, phones up, people like
pens in hand. My driver comes out, opens that door.
I've never seen such disappointment in the faces of so
many people that it was me like they were waiting
to see a world champion. They were waiting to see
Joe Rogan type. Instead they got Yanni the Greek And
if you saw the look of sheer, utter disappointment, Andy,
my ego has never taken such a hit as on
that night. It was unbelievable having to walk through that
crowd that was like just pushing you out of the way,
hoping another van pulled up beside you. Was very humbling experience,
very humbling.
Speaker 2: Didn't I see that guy make a parlay on Contender
Series last week or something? Who was that guy? What
weight class does he fight in?
Speaker 3: That's great, that's a.
Speaker 2: That's a great story, all right, y'a. He's gonna be
locked and loaded. Check back here in a little bit
once against confirmation on everything, Y'aanni agreed. Glad to have
you back, sir, have a great Monday, all right, we
keep the show moving. Colin, I see you in the chat.
You and I are ready for our bet tonight. Money
is coming your way. So you definitely got the best
of the number. We're locked in at three and a half.
Colin has the Texans three and a half. I got
the Seahawks at three and a half. So we'll see
if we can see see what happens after this game.
I can't believe it's so late. The game was. The
game didn't start till late tonight. It's gonna stay up
and watch that one just because Colin and I have
a bet going. All right, let's bring bring in Bill
the crack Man. Bill, Happy Monday, How are you surf?
Speaker 1: Hey, good morning? Yeah boy, Yanni is smooth as silk.
Speaker 5: I think he is great on these shows, and uh,
I've become a fan.
Speaker 1: I admit I've.
Speaker 5: Never watched shows his shows before, but you know, I
know he's dealing with some of the biggest sindicts out
there too, like myself. So you guys have a one
two combination here. That's fantastic.
Speaker 1: And I love his stories and his energy. Great, great deal.
Speaker 2: Let's see Bill, let's talk real quick about Let's do
a prop real quick. Let's get let's let's give people
some actionable info. I got some props coming up later.
You got a prop for tonight? Which one are you
looking at?
Speaker 5: I was actually gonna get a baseball prop, but I
just got a football crop that I just put in.
Speaker 1: So, h Baker Mayfield over is over his on his
passing yards.
Speaker 5: I'm looking anywhere from I see Westgates to forty two
and a half to forty three and a half of
the sight through forty five. I gotta go by the
sites that are availability, so put it somewhere in the
middle of there, over on it.
Speaker 1: And I don't like playing overs.
Speaker 5: Listen, I had graduated to the school of playing more
and more over props. My props are still seventy percent
under used to be maybe eighty eighty five percent. However,
I think Baker's in a good spout here primetime football.
All his wideouts are back. I think this is a
great matchup for him. Yeah, you know, it's amazing because
the sharps, I know, two different groups are both on
Tampa Bay. Yet no why the money just keeps pouring
in on Detroit. So I find it very interesting that
this line is where it is and they just keep
on pounding Detroit money. I know one of the shows
I do, the sponsor of the show is a big
sports book and they have a big presence in Michigan,
and he said it's like eighty percent of the money.
They cannot get anyone to bet Tampa. So I want
to be on the sportsbook side. I want to tell
you what else the sports books are going to be
on tonight. The sports books are going to be begging
for Seattle. You know, last night, I've seen the line
come up, but my mine is a dollar twelve. It
just because I have Seattle in a series.
Speaker 1: Bet.
Speaker 5: I'm to win the World Series. I'm not hedging anything tonight.
I'm not even hedging anything, to be honest with you,
in the World Series. So hopefully they get there and
play the Dodgers. But I'll tell you I was contemplating
laying that dollar twelve, just based on I know the public,
I know the way they are. I know that they're
going to lay the favorite And I actually said it
to a friend of mine last night. I said, you
know this will be a scalp by the time the
game come now. I just see now, I see plus
one seventeen eighteen. Silly on my on my behalf, I
could have done.
Speaker 1: That first guy.
Speaker 5: I just know the public's gonna pass on them the
next day, and we all know what happens. God protects
the bookmaker, that's right. I know it sounds it sounds crazy,
but God does protect the bookmaker.
Speaker 1: INDI Ena, I've said that on multiple shows, multiple platforms,
and yeah, so.
Speaker 5: I'll just tell you I wouldn't be surprised to see
Seattle pull this off tonight. But I know everyone that
the momentum and everything is with Toronto, So I get it.
Speaker 1: It's just one game. Anything can happen.
Speaker 5: But so you have a couple of games here that
the bookmakers are going to be on the favorites, Detroit
and Toronto.
Speaker 1: Let's see if we could just go one and one
on those and with the dogs there, not really betting anything.
Speaker 5: And just just just a conversational sake. What I am
betting is I'm betting a baseball profits up on wager talk.
Speaker 1: I'm betting some other things.
Speaker 5: And and Andy, it's been one of those seasons in
the NFL. And I had a great day yesterday. Was
it was eight and two. I think it was eight
and two on wager talk. I had a great day yesterday.
Speaker 1: And another winning week on waiger talk. Nice winning week.
Speaker 5: College having a great college season, you know, up like
twelve thirteen, and it's an NFL again. Nice nice, Another
nice day. So it's it's tough, though, man, betting those
NFL sides. People want them, No, I know I did
go too and oh on them yesterday.
Speaker 1: I think I went too and oh last week too.
It's just tough betting NFL sides.
Speaker 5: I know everyone wants the bet sides, though, I know
that's the thing to bet.
Speaker 1: I focus more on prop betting.
Speaker 5: I'm gonna put a larger percentage of my bank roll
on the NFL player props. And I'm a broken recorder.
I say it every week. I go to the counter
and what can I bet on a player prop? I
give you a perfect example of my buddy John Murray
over there at Westgate.
Speaker 1: They're really good to me. You know. I'm a max
bet guy on player props.
Speaker 5: Sign same thing with CIRCA max bet bet MGM max Bet.
Speaker 1: I'm betting whatever they take.
Speaker 5: So it's a perfect example out of all three of
those giant sports books. You can go there with a
bag full of money dumping on the counter and say
you want to bet the Lions tonight, and if you
have a million bucks on the counter, they're probably gonna
take a million bucks. They have enough time to work
with it, they're probably gonna take it. Now what happens
on an NFL player profit? I dump all that money out, sir,
put all that away. You only can bet a thousand bucks.
Speaker 1: That's a fact. And that's just not only those three
sports books. Most sports books you gotta you get a
Mickey Mouse joint like DraftKings.
Speaker 5: If I show up there and I show that my
eyes are open and they take my pulse, and I
have a pulse. Sorry, sir, you only get ten dollars.
That's what I'm allowed to better DraftKings, so you know,
and that's what I know a lot of people that
have that same thing. And I know I say that
at the risk with them, you know, having to worry
about a future show. My God, be careful, crack. Don't
say that. Thank God in life I'm good, and that
I'll need your money draft kings, thank God, thank God,
I'll need your response money. So anyway, I'm just giving fact.
Just tell him about how the reason why I say
all these things, I'm just saying, when it comes to
prop limits.
Speaker 1: There's so much more beatable. That's why they take so
much less. So there you have it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, DraftKings is a necessary part of my art, Like
I have to have them, you know. Living here in Indianapolis,
I got a couple of casinos, but those are Caesars
that they don't offer some of the things on DraftKings.
But I will tell you this story, Bill, this is
a funny one. So we hit Contender Series big the
last two weeks on DraftKings, and there's a rep here
in India. I guess he's a VIP thing or whatever.
I never hear from him. Yeah, So we hit Contender
Series really big, and the next day he was like, hey,
I put some boosts for the NFL in for you.
Oh we went this guy to bet NFL at least
sides and totals.
Speaker 1: You can still bet at least you can still bet
in your account.
Speaker 2: It's true, it's true. I'm pretty careful with my draft.
I'm pretty careful with all my accounts about how I
do props and stuff to not get limited, because if
I get limited here in Indian.
Speaker 1: Know you you have to massage accounts.
Speaker 5: Unfortunately, to keep them open, you have to bet NFL
on Sunday. You have to bet things that look a
little more square, maybe throw some parlays in there, throw
some things that look like sucker bets. But when they
look at your account, they say, hey, this guy's giving.
Speaker 1: Us a little of everything. Unfortunately, that's the way you
have to keep accounts open.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yes, yeah, yeah. If you if you go on
a good run on props, you better throw like an
NBA money line parlay or an MLB money line parlay
on like the Yankees and the Dodgers, just to throw
them off the scin a little could do.
Speaker 5: That too, Andy, because if you just market cap, just
to let you know, for people that are listening here,
if you just market cap, just look at DraftKings lines
against like Circa Pinnacle Chris, which is you know on
the screen there's sports for one one, but there's a
couple other sportsbook just look against even Fandle. The Fandel
and market guys are pretty sharp there. Fandel's definitely had
sharp numbers, way sharper than DraftKings. So if you just
want to make your account look better, just market cap
and bet some things. Maybe even take a couple cents
loss on something on Sundays.
Speaker 1: You want to give them action on.
Speaker 5: Sunday's NFL Sunday's side too. You want to give side
you want to look like a you know, a complete
you know, a piker.
Speaker 2: Yeah, go put in the Lions tonight. That'll be a
good one to check for the public. Like wait right
before get the worst of the line. That that kind
of thing.
Speaker 5: That I just gotta you know, I still gotta bet
something of some value I feel anyway, But these companies,
to all of them, this goes for all of them.
Anyone that throws anybody out. How dumb are you?
Speaker 1: Guys?
Speaker 5: Were we're all back in anyway, just under someone else's name.
Speaker 1: How stupid.
Speaker 5: Now you have to figure out who we are. You
have to give us a nice bonus. You may even
get a call from a rep.
Speaker 1: Do this, do that. You're just gonna be paying to
let us play again. Thank you for that.
Speaker 2: What do you have for everyone on this Monday bill?
Speaker 5: Well, I have, as we can see here on the
wager Talk site. I'm there the passes. That's what I'm
gonna tell you, the guys to go, not even seven days,
seven days, ninety nine bucks, but the long term passes
thirty days to ninety nine get You should get the
up to the super Bowl. That's what you really need.
I mean that includes super Bowl props. You should get
a full package like that. But you know, anything can
happen in one day, anything can happen.
Speaker 1: In three days.
Speaker 5: Now, I understand people like to do that. So it's
a lower percent day, it's a lot less money. But
like perfect example, I'm forty four and thirty one sixty
percent on.
Speaker 1: Wave your tuck. You could have cut some of those
thirty one if you only want one day.
Speaker 5: So my thing is is like I said, I having
a great season on these things and I'm going to
continue too. Here we have we have college basketball rolling around,
we have you know, NBA player props, some great stuff
in the works here.
Speaker 1: You guys should get on for the long term. That's
all I could tell you.
Speaker 2: Bill crack Man, thank you very much. Congratulations on the
eight and two day in the in the NFL. It's
a great day. Can't wait to see again next Monday.
Good luck on that prop tonight. Thank Hill. Take care
of Bill. Thank you very much. Bill joining us every
single week. We're gonna do some overreactions where the books
won for the public one. We'll do some prop and
fantasy winners and losers. Only one play in the NFL
up for me tonight we're five and four over the
weekend and on Thursday night. Real bummer that we lost
on Jayden Daniels because he got hurt. Otherwise we would
be looking at six and three going into Monday night.
But we do have our Monday night best bet. If
you didn't have the weekly pack, we always put our
week pack up early so you get all plays. I
recommend that. But if you missed out on that, grab
the prop that's up for tonight, and we have a
four percent cricket bet that goes off around midnight. What's
hilarious is I thick that Monday night football game still
might be going on while we have a bet on
a cricket game on the other side of the planet.
So if you want four percent cricket best bet. I
know it's not the most exciting sexy thing, but man,
those cash at a big rate. We're in a thirty
seven and twenty one run in those. We hit our
last four percent winner four and one on those. If
you want something in the NFL game, grab that. We're
having a pretty decent year and props really want that
percentage up a little bit. Tell you every week Raymond
for fifty eight fifty seven percent. We're at fifty six
percent right now. That's over at wager talk dot com.
Let's have a big Monday tonight, all right? Let us
do are we overreacting? Pretty calm, slow week with are
we overreacting? The Chiefs are Super Bowl favorites. I think
they actually are in the betting markets now. I don't
know how much of that's an overreaction. If that's just
a reacting to what we're seeing Dolphins should fire the coach.
That's by far the biggest reaction from today. And then
the Jets should start Tyrod Taylor. Again, I don't even
think those are that controversial, but those are the three
that I came up with, but not that big of
an overreacting week. So let me know in the chat
in the comments section, what's your favorite? Are we overreacting?
Let's take a quick look at where the books one,
where the public one. There wasn't a whole lot of
big time everyone's on this certain play, but I will
tell you Lions are gonna be a big one. Where
the books won, where the public one, depending on what
happens there. Packers minus the points, Books one big on
that one. Giants and the Broncos under wow. Kind of
a tough beat thirty three points from the Broncos in
the fourth quarter to get that way over the total
public one on the Los Angeles Rams and Jacksonville under everything,
Chiefs Everything, Patriots everything, Panthers, Jets on the under. So
there was a lot of really good winners here for
moneyline parlays. We got some survivor and Dan, I see
you there, Dan. We both made it through in Survivor congratulations.
Dan went with the Chiefs. I went with the Patriots.
Even though I won an advance, I still have a regret.
It was always the Browns. It was always fading to
a in Cleveland in rain and wind. He was laughingly
bad that one. I'm and remember I was beating the
drum about the Panthers. I could have won that one.
But just watching that Browns Dolphins game, you could tell
real quick it was just like, God, this one's over.
Speaker 6: But hey, yeah, but do you understand how heartbroken Andy,
you would have been if you lost in Week seven
on the Cleveland Browns on Dylan on Dylan Gabriel's Cleveland Browns,
Like you wouldn't have been able to accept that. So
I go with the biggest favorite. You take a little
bit more of a cheeky play, But that was the
right side the whole time. Now, were you nervous when
the Titans jumped out to a lead in that game
or were you just like, now the cream shall rise
in the hop here.
Speaker 2: No, it was one of those where you could tell
the scripted plays looked great. And what I loved was
how the Patriots just didn't get this is this is
the difference between a good coach like Veryble and what
they had last year. They didn't crack under that pressure.
Tennessee came out with that the energy and the Patriots
were like, no, no, no, we're gonna answer you. And
when they answered right back, I was like, oh, Tennessee's
just emptied out everything they have and it was it
was gone. I'll tell you where I was laughing Dan was.
I was like, what if I would have taken the
Panthers to fade Justin Fields and then they pull him
and I lose to Tyrod Taylor would have been well,
I don't that would have been the world would have
been funny.
Speaker 6: But as one of the commenters pointed out, you know,
Tyrod Taylor might have been worse than Justin Fields, which
which actually feels like that would be physically impossible to
be worse than Justin Fields, who had a net negative
ten yards when he was over the pond. Yeah, not
not too great there, But but Andy, I mean, this
was just one of those weeks where it just felt
like what was supposed to happen happened. Except the teams
who I decided to lay points with, like the Broncos,
they win they don't cover, you know, so, so it
was just like it was a really good, Oh, this
is the week when everything's gonna happen the way that
way that it should. However, it did not happen in
the fashion it was expected to happen, if that makes sense,
And that's why the point spread is that ultimate equalizer.
Speaker 2: Absolutely. How many tickets had denver So in the contest,
Dan and Iron about nine percent advance, So that would
have been a sizeable Yeah, it would have been a
nice that would have been a really nice little cash
on that one. But it was all Patriots. It was
all Chiefs when you know, pretty.
Speaker 6: Each Yeah, and look ahead for this week, and then
we'll get Steve Marilyn here because I know people want
to get.
Speaker 2: His thoughts on the Game seven action tonight.
Speaker 6: And if you really want some some deep dives by Steve,
you can also check out the channel because he has
a double gamer on the Monday night football games that
we have recorded last week, so you can get thoughts
on both of them. I'll give you some thoughts on
one here, but a little bit of a look ahead Andy.
This one kind of feels like an easier week to
pick survivor So you know what one that kind of
stands out to me and maybe taken a shot, is
I think the Ravens are gonna win out of the
buy here against the Bears.
Speaker 2: I think I think maybe you maybe you.
Speaker 6: Want to see a week where do we know if
the Ravens are going to have a second half emergence.
But if there's one team who I think is going
to look much different than the first half of the
season for him, I think it's going to be the
Baltimore Ravens. And it's a really good sell high spot
on a Bears team. This is the hottest run that
the Bears have had probably in recent memory.
Speaker 2: I mean, when was the last time.
Speaker 6: You were talking about a winning streak for a Chicago
Bears team and a winning streak where they look pretty good.
So I think this could be a good fade spot
for him. I'm certainly going to be having Baltimore Ravens
down and some teasers, but I think they might even
be a play for me as a circle type great one.
Speaker 2: It's a great one. I actually want to save Ravens
roll the dice that I get that, because see if
they really do have that, if they start winning games,
they are going to be a juggernaut later on. And
they got home. They got home at Brown's home Jets
in week twelve and the big one. You know, if
you're worried about that. Thanksgiving week they are home to
the Bengals. You know, the Bengals is okay, whatever, But
Joe Flacco in December, I'm not really sure about that one.
Colts are going to be the huge one for the Titans.
We've used them though, but yeah, there are falcons off
of a loss home to the Dolphins. I kind of
like that.
Speaker 6: I can't believe it's Monday morning and Mike McDaniel still
has a job. Like that feels like they're just punched state,
you know what I mean. It's like, what's the point
of firing them? What are we gonna do? Go out
and start our hiring spree here in week eight? No,
it's not gonna happen. So I don't know. They looked
so disinterested in that game, man, and not only because
it was raining. I mean, there there's a locker room
that doesn't believe in their quarterback, and there's a coach
who I have zero expectations or thoughts that if there's
a guy who could bring a team back to a
fold who's completely lost.
Speaker 3: Mike McDaniel and his capri pants, aren't you guys wearing?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 6: They lost so bad because he didn't get to wear
his joggers. That's why they were because he wasn't in
his joggers.
Speaker 1: That's why they looked.
Speaker 2: So big ass hood in the sunglasses. He looked like
the bomber.
Speaker 6: He looked like and all he has done is bomb Miami.
Speaker 2: He's a point spread bomber. Here's a sneaky one. I
wanted to take the Panthers. What about the Bengals home
to the Jets. Team looked like a brand new team,
brand new life.
Speaker 6: It's so funny because we always are like, well, you know,
this team isn't gonna go oh in seventeen.
Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
Speaker 6: Like we always say that about that time when you're
trying to find the spot exactly are we sure that
the Jets.
Speaker 3: Aren't gonna go seventeen?
Speaker 6: Can do good there in New York.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna wait and see what the health is of
Garrett Wilson. If there's no Garrett Wilson, I think I
am taking the Bengals. They cannot move the ball at
all in the slightest but we survive in advance. We're
down to just under eight thousand people in that contest.
I believe we started with pointing out I don't think.
Speaker 6: I don't think Corey Hart's sunglasses at night had a
refrain of he wears his sunglasses in the rain, in.
Speaker 2: The rain in forty degrees overcast rain, just so so ridiculous.
So all right, let's bring in Oh, somebody asked about
is there a book proxy? Is they're a book where
your players get hurt on a player prop, it cancels
the bet. As much as I despise this rule, it's
not just a couple of books. Draft Kings does it,
bet MGM does it. I believe somebody said Prize Picks
does it and such, and yeah, it's kind of thrown
some chaos. We had unofficial client play that had to
be voided because it got played on Draft Kings. That
was where he pulled the prop, and they voided it, like,
let's bring in Steve Merrill on this one. H Steve
this and it should have been a loss. Our player
got hurt early, and yet we had to put it
down as a void because that's what DraftKings and BETEMGM
and all these other ones did. I really, I really
hate that books can just decide when to avoid a
bet randomly, because that gives them permission to do whatever
they want randomly. They can just change the rules. That's
the that's the that's the dirty secret about when they
get to do stuff like that.
Speaker 7: It's a slippery slope.
Speaker 2: Slippery slope exactly, that's exactly right.
Speaker 7: So don't catch falling knives and don't step on slippery
slopes or don't interact. Yeah, I mean it's always been
if a guy starts or plays even right in a
game like the prop is action and that's where a
Porter's brother that's banned from the NBA. You know he
would play for what a couple of minutes for the
Raptors and yes, say under the total. And that's that's
just how it is. I mean, I think you got
to have uniform The one nice thing about when Vegas
was the only shop in town for decades is that
they had the gaming commission and everything was kind of uniformed.
But like you said, FanDuel DraftKings, well, Ben MVM still
is kind of Vegas, but you know they've gotten so
big now that they can kind of do what they want.
And as you know, Andy, a lot of it's just
customer service, customer retention. You know, they'll give a little
bit of a refund on that's known that they'll come
back and play again. So there's a lot of marketing
involved as well.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean even tennis. Different sports books have different
rules for tennis, so you have to play them on
the right books. It's it's ridiculous. All right, let's get
into some actionable information. We're going to talk about the
Mariners and Blue Jays, but first let's talk about this
Texans in Seahawks. I will tell you I have a
bet going with Colin in our chat. I bet I
have three and a half. I love the Seahawks. He
likes the Texans. I am two and two in the
pick five contest. I'm bet online this will determine if
I go three and two or two and three. Money
has come in kind of making a big statement here.
Seattle's down to minus three with the over under a
forty one. How do you break this game down?
Speaker 7: So this was the most public player of the week.
And let me just disclaim first of all by saying
that the public finally did well this week. They had
lost five of the first six weeks. In my video fading,
the public had gone eighteen and nine sixty seven percent
this season and the five years I've been doing that video.
And I pointed this out, is that it was the
least public week I've ever seen. The public consensus across
the board. It was very minimal, leaning towards several dogs
even and lo and behold, what did the public do?
They went three and zero on Sunday, so they were
due for a good weekend andy, But once again, the
consensus was at a really eight a five year low
this weekend with that set. Of the four games that
republic the most public this week was the Seahawks, so
we'll see if they go for the four to oh
sweep tonight. And here's what's funny. Of the four public
plays this week, this is the one I didn't really
disagree with. I don't know if that's good or bad.
I really couldn't come up with a case for the Patriots, Texans, Patriots, Titans.
Public was all over New England. I wanted nothing to
do with Tennessee and when they were up early, I
was like, ah, maybe we should have faded the public there,
and we saw how that turned out. Saints Bears was
the other public was on the Bears. I actually did
think that was a spot to fade them. That did
not work out. I went two and zero my other
NFL best bets on Sunday, by the way, and then
Broncos Giants. Giants were a real public dog Sunday, and
I was tempted by the Broncos. I ended up putting
it up as a free opinion only for everybody, and
I was kind of glad I did, because obviously they
were never close to covering. So we'll see if the
public goes four and O. And I actually agree with
the Seattle side, But as I pointed out in my
video this weekend, it really depends on the number. And
you just kind of hinted at that. We've had three
and three and a half's popping back and forth all
weekend long endo Monday.
Speaker 1: Here.
Speaker 7: If you like Houston, you can get a plus three
and a half. If you like Seattle, you lay minus three,
and there's about a nine to Actually I'll say there's
a ten percent chance Seattle wins by exactly three to nine.
The reason I say that is because this is a
very low total. It's forty one, very low total, and
by the way, forty one is an extremely key number
with over unders about a three to four percent chance
this game lands on exactly forty one points, so you
really need to shop around. There are some forty one
and a half's out there for the total as well,
So if you like the under, you get a forty
one and a half. You like the over, you get
a forty one. I would not be shocked if either
the side or total lands exactly on the number tonight.
As you can tell, I'm not huge on this game.
I would lean Seattle at minus three or less. I
think they're the better team. Texans defense has been fantastic.
What are they giving up like twelve point two points
per game this season? I think that increases Tonight looks
like a good spot for Seattle at minus three or less.
It's just I'm a little hesitant because they are a
very public side.
Speaker 1: Tonight.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this will be an interesting game. I just I
watched the Houston Texans a lot, and this isn't even
a crunching numbers, just the eye test. I don't think
they're that good. They've beaten a couple of chump teams
and I'm just not sold on them. So the offensive
line is a wreck, so I will see how that goes.
Game seven. We all love Game sevens. It's huge. Did
a show with Andrew mcginnits earlier. He was wearing his
Toronto Blue Jay's shirt, so we got Mariners who got
blue Jay's yon. He talked about how he's got a
Mariner's ticket that's got forty units pending. He's tried to
figure out how to hedge on it. He got Kirby
for Seattle, who absolutely got shelled last start, but he
was decent the previous two starts. I went back and
looked kind of fifty to fifty. How he rebounds. He's
done okay after a bad start, but a lot of
pressure here. And then he got Bieber for Toronto. Eight
point two innings pitched in the playoffs. He's only allowed
four earned runs. You got Toronto as a favorite, not surprisingly,
they have the momentum if you believe in momentum coming
into the game, big game. How do you break this
one down?
Speaker 7: Well, I was kind of hoping. I didn't have anything
last night, but I was kind of hoping Seattle close
it out so we could talk about World Ties instead
of Game seven here, because it's hard not to like
the Dodgers first of all in the World Series, and
there are some advanced prices by the way, they have
the matchups for both series at bet online, and Dodgers
are minus two forty five against either Seattle or Toronto.
If Faniel's got a much better price on the futures,
they've got the Dodgers at minus two to ten overall,
minus two to fifteen against the Blue Jays, minus two
hundred against the Mariners. I guess the thought there is
if Seattle pulls the upset here in Game seven, they're
a slightly stronger opponent. But this is gonna be one
of the biggest mismatches we've seen in the World Series.
And I'm actually shocked that we can get the Dodgers
at like minus two ten right now. So I will say,
despite whoever wins this game tonight, go and lock in
the Dodgers at minus two ten. One of the best
teams in baseball ever coming into the season, they underachieved
quite a bit, but as my Dodger insider in a
great American Justin Brisky keeps pointing out to me they
are on a roll. He looked it up and said
it was the best lowest era in the history of
September ever for a team. I haven't looked that far,
but they were pretty damn good. And now that Otani
is available to pitch, as we saw in game four
the other night, better look out as far as this
game goes to night game seven once again, I feel
like these two teams are playing for runner up, but
they want to win the American League Championship Series. And
I'm not a conspiracy guy, but if I was, I'd
have to say MLB probably wants a Canadian USA matchup.
I can't imagine they want Seattle La. Toronto La is
a huge matchup. I'm not gonna say they're gonna get
some beneficial calls, but the Blue Jays are favored for
a reason, and that's also because they've had a strong
home field. Both these teams have had losing records in
the regular season on the road, and they both were
like forty games above five hundred combined at home. So
of course, what happened while the road team won the
first four games in this series, but we have seen
things get back to normal a little bit of the
last few games. Toronto one game actually, I'm sorry, Seattle
one game five at home, Toronto one game six at
home last night, of course, so the home team is
now two to zero after going zero to four. I
think that continues. If you're gonna play this, you want
to lay with the Blue Jays. The big concern for
Toronto and the reason they've had to go to a
game seven here in their ten playoff games, their bullpen
has been horrendous this postseason, and it's really remarkable they're
even in a spot to play in the World Series.
They're just five and five straight up in the ten
playoff games and they have a bullpen era of over
six point zero in the postseason. Seattle three point nine seven,
not great, but their whip is one point one to eight.
Toronto's is one point five nine, which is a terrible whip.
So you could hedge the Blue Jays a little bit
with the over tonight over seven and a half over eight.
We're not getting that key number of seven though. As
far as the pitchers in this game, George Kirby, as
Andy Lang mentioned, is coming off a terrible start, giving
up eight runs and just four innings pretty solid before that,
something I point out a lot in my late season
baseball videos and analysis. I like to look at pitch
count or more more importantly, innings pitched at this point,
because some of these guys have never gone this deep
into a season. Kirby last year in the regular season,
win one hundred and ninety one innings, win one hundred
and ninety the year before that. This year in the
regular season, he only pitched one hundred and twenty six,
so I do think he'll probably have a decent outing tonight.
And then Shane Bieber twelve innings last year and only
forty this year after coming back from the injury when
he had one hundred and twenty eight innings in twenty
twenty three. So I'm a little lukewarm in the over
for that reason, because I think both pictures have solid
outings here tonight. Therefore, I would rather have this side
in this game, and I just feel like Toronto's going
to advance. And while home field advantage in baseball might
be a little overrated, it's only about batting ninth, batting last,
and the ninth strategically, there will be a little bit
of a crowd element and those of you that are
old enough to remember the early nineties, I remember the
old SkyDome, Joe Carter and company. That place was rocking,
and I think it will be a substantial home field
advantage to Night in Game seven, plus the strategic edge
of batting last in what could be a tight game.
If you're going to play it, I would lay it
with the Toronto Blue Jays minus a dollar twenty five
minus a dollar thirty a bigger picture, lay it with
the Dodgers minus two ten to win the whole thing.
I thought that price is going to be three or
four to one. By the way, real quick, if you're
liking these videos, thumbs up, like, if you're liking the
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slash sm So.
Speaker 2: What Otani did the other I was trying to think
of a comparison.
Speaker 7: Steve Insane. I was going to ask you about that.
Speaker 2: Okay, So here's what I came up with. Patrick Mahomes
throws for three hundred and fifty yards and three touchdowns
against the Bills in the playoffs. But then he plays
middle linebacker and leaves the Chiefs and tackles exactly as.
Speaker 7: Better as the second pick six. Right, I was gonna say, well,
you know, we might actually see that if the jag
wires ever get good enough, which we don't think is
coming anytime soon, right, we could possibly see that with
one guy that's in the NFL right now. For Jacksonville Hunter,
it's too hard.
Speaker 2: You cannot play. It is ridiculous play both sides of
the ball. In the NFL, most guys can't even complete
a season on one side of the ball. This guy's
supposed to do it on two sides of the ball.
No way, and.
Speaker 7: Great comment. He said, why is Merrill wearing a Washington
Command's not his Washington Commander's shirt. I'd never thought about that.
Speaker 1: How great is that?
Speaker 7: And then I realized Wager Talk's eleven years old. So
the commanders are infringing. I think this is how we're
getting back to Redskins. Finally we're gonna have a big
old lawsuit. Gonna get Johnny to try and know Johnny
Detroit knows some shisty lawyers he has to, so we're
gonna get in on this. But the reason I bring
this up, you see all the Redskins and stuff in
the background. When I used to go games in the eighties,
there'd be an electric energy at RFK Stadium when Darryl
Green would occasionally go back to run a punt. And
I joked about that Bear's Commander's breakdown last Monday night.
I said, I remember Green hurtling the guy pulling the
rib and winning the playoff game at Soldier Field. But
Gibbs didn't do it that much because of the end risk,
even on a punt return for one of the greatest
defensive backs at the time ever. But yeah, it's it's
a rarity of what Otai did.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 7: It's a shame that these guys don't go complete games anymore,
because he probably would have had a complete game shutout
on top of that, but they pull him in six
innings on what like two hits or something, just because
they're going to have him for the World Series. But
that's another element. You know, the Dodgers underachieved all season,
but they've beaten quote unquote the two best teams already
in the Phillies and Brewers, and now Otani's available and
he my son point my son, Daniel pointed this out
to me. He didn't even go to the dugout after
what was it, three strikeouts in the first inning. He
was handed his equipment to wore them up hitting and
hits a home run. It's beyond insane. And we keep
saying like no one's ever done this, and he keeps
doing it. It's really remarkable, and it makes it kind
of like if you don't even follow baseball, gives you
a reason to follow the World series.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I know we're talking about it, but I
don't think people are talking enough about how truely.
Speaker 7: Of course, I don't know the sixth inning with ten strikeout,
like you got the only pitch two thirds of a
game like ten years ago. That's a complete game, right,
I mean, it's just like what else could he have done.
Speaker 2: In that game? It's pretty amazing. It's pretty amazing. So
all right, Steve Merril, thank you very much. Good luck
on your bet tonight. Have a great Monday, great breakdowns. Yeah,
you can follow Steve on all of his solo videos
on this wager Talk YouTube channel. I haven't a Monday
night football best bet that is up. It's a prop,
my favorite prop that is on the board. It's one
hundred percent hit rate this year, so we're loving this bet.
Go grab that one. And we also have a four
percent cricket best bet. I know cricket. You guys probably
aren't gonna watch it. It's perfect. You set it and
forget it. You wake up and there's the money in
the account, So go grab that. It's a parlay. It
is on DraftKings Fan, It's on all the domestic books,
so you guys can grab that and we're four and
one on our last five four percent cricket place. Let's
do all around the world. Let's do some props for
tonight's game. And I believe we went over these on
myself and Andrew McGinnis's show Props with Parlays that is
up right now on the wager Talk YouTube channel. We
go through a ton of different props in all the
categories and we give you a nine to one same
game parlay for you guys. We talked about Jared Goff
over two hundred and sixty passing. Tampa is a top
five rush defense, but a bottom eleven pass defense. Goff
loves playing the Bucks three hundred and ten yards average
in three games against Tampa. I love this one. This
is my sneaky one of an AJ Barner over one
and a half receptions. He only had four catches the
first three games combined, but the last three games three
seven and three thirteen targets thirteen catches. Texans give up
four point four receptions per game to tight ends and
he's been working close with Cooper Cup. Cooper Cup has
taken him under his wing. You're starting to see the results,
and then we're gonna go with CJ. Shroud over to
twenty six and a half passing. CJ. Shroud's gone over
this in the last two games after going under the
first three games. Seattle's defense in the secondary is a
little banged up. The last two quarterbacks against Seattle have
gone over. I like the game script. I think the
Texans are going to be throwing if the Seahawks are up,
so this number seems a little bit too low. All right,
that's going to do it for us. Hit the like button,
leave us a comment in the comment section, and thank
you so much for you guys joining us. Hopefully we're
getting you ready for a week. It's a new week,
new betting opportunities. Let's get the week started off with
some winners tonight. We're going to be back tomorrow, same place,
same time. Hope to see then. Good luck on your
best tonight. Take care