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Speaker 1: Your life.

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Speaker 2: Happy Saturday, everyone, It's time for a last call over

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here on a Wager Talk. It's Week six in college

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football and we've got a loaded day, lots of games

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out there, drop your questions, your comments in the live

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chat here, and we've got a loaded guest list today.

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We're going to kick it off with Giohanny the Greek,

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then Ralph Micah's, Jesse Schulz and Cal Anthony, finishing it

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up with some UFC bets that you don't want to

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miss out on. So let's get into this Week six

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as we do, open your oddsology page. Make sure you

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have those numbers in front of you. As these lines

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are moving on a couple of these games, you want

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to get the best of the number. But without delay,

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let's bring in Giohnny the Greek.

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Speaker 3: Good morning, busy day, busy day.

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Speaker 2: It's definitely a busy day. I know that you're really

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busy out there. What are we seeing on the back

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end of things right now, Johnny?

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Speaker 3: A lot of college football action. I mean, we have

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a busy day of Major League Baseball playoffs which will

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get a lot of volume as well, and of course

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a UFC pay per view later this evening. That'll get

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a lot of attention, but it's all about college football

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right now, and that's where all the heavy volume is

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coming in some of the more one sided bet teams.

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No surprise Texas minus five and a half. That's as

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one sided as you're going to get. Penn State over UCLA.

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They're betting them over and over and over again, and

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Notre Dame minus twenty one and Ohio State, like those

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four favorites are getting a ton of money tied into

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a ton of parlays, tied into a lot of teasers.

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So those are some of the biggest risks for the

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books so far today.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely a huge risk. I'm seeing Ohio State up

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to twenty three and a half point favorite on a

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lot of books. Minnesota, we know their struggles, They've had

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it out there. Would you be willing to lay the

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twenty three and a half with Ohio State?

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Speaker 1: No?

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Speaker 3: No, I actually I see that the sharp side in

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that game was Minnesota in the first quarter. I didn't

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get a chance to release the subscribers because I missed

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the seven. That's what they were getting down on. Minnesota

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plus seven in the first quarter. I think that makes sense,

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but it's six and a half across the board, so

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I wasn't able.

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Speaker 1: To use it.

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Speaker 3: I think Ohio State will systematically break down Minnesota, but

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I think they could. Minnesota could keep it tight in

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the beginning until you know the athleticism of Ohio State,

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the physicality of Ohio State, and just the superior athletes

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in Ohio State just does what they do and the

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cream rises to the top. But I think early on

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Minnesota should be able to give them a little bit

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of resistance and keep it within the touchdown in that

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first quarter.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely, we know Julian San so strong of getting that

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ball to Jeremiah Smith, and they could pull away late

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in that game. We do have a question in the

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live chat here thoughts on Alabama and Vandy that one

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asking to the under. Would you take that one to

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the under? High powered offenses on both sides, diego's dangerous

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there for bounding.

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Speaker 3: Ye actually bet that game under. I thought Vanderbilt is

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gonna have some problems scoring on this Alabama defense. They're

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just as legit as it comes. And I liked Alabama

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because I thought Alabama's still that undervalued team. They're finally

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moving up in the polls. But I've been talking about

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it for the last couple of weeks that I thought

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Alabama is the second best team in the country power

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rating wise. In fact, the only team that should have

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been favored over them on a neutral field was Ohio State.

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And slowly but surely Alabama's climbing the ranks, but I

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still think they're a little bit undervalued because of that loss.

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I like Bama. I just don't like where the line

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is now. When it dropped down to ten, I thought

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it was a good bet at Alabama minus ten. Now

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that it's up there at eleven and a half twelve,

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I think it's a it's better.

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Speaker 2: To pass, better to pass on that there's.

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Speaker 3: Enough opportunities you don't have to take bad numbers. But

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I lean Alabama and I like the under.

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Speaker 2: I'm with you that fifty six and a half. It's

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minus one oh five on most books to that under.

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Over there. We're seeing some more questions here popping up

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in the chat Iowa State the pros play. Where are

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we seeing? The line is outline? Fishy Johnny at all?

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Speaker 3: I'm sorry you were cutting out what game?

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Speaker 2: Iowa State? So what do you think of the Iowa

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State game? People are saying the lines look a little fishy.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that that one's I was State in Cincinnati. I've

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seen that go back and forth. I've seen sharp money

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on both sides of that game. Personally, I haven't touched

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it gunned the head. I'd probably take the road dog Ohouse,

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Iowa State in this spot, I know it looks like

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Cincinnati's getting steam. I just don't think it's warranted. But again,

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not a game that I got involved on. The over

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is getting beat one sided by the public. They like

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that game over. It's moved significantly from like fifty one

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up to fifty five. I don't know why they're still

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betting it over again, even if it scores sixty five

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seventy points. It's just not a good bet. Guys, don't

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bet bad numbers. Use the odds logic screen, or at

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the very least, use the wager talk free on screen.

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Click that matchup, look at where the line opened, look

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at where it sits now. You don't want to be

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the last one betting it again, even if the team covers.

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It's just not a good recipe for long term results.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely. Jojo Collins coming in with a question here for

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you BC versus pit any steam on a pit or

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is this a pass?

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Speaker 4: Now?

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Speaker 3: I'm under. I went under. We actually that under is

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really strong. We bet under for the game, under for

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the first half, under for the first quarter. Obviously I

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didn't release three separate bets to subscribers, but it just

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goes to show you how strong the under is in

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that game. Whenever you see the betting synder gets forced

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to get creative, it tells you they feel really strong

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about a sign, because you got to remember, the limits

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aren't all that high on totals, so if they're going

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to bet a total and it's gonna move significantly, they

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can't get enough money down, so they have to get

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creative and start betting team totals over, first half, over,

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first quarter over. When you see that happening, it's usually

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a sign of some really strong information win or lose,

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And in BC Pitt, that's what sticks out the most

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that they're trying to get as as much money down

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on the under as possible. And I think they're going

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opposite public as well, so I think that'll be a

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good result for the books as far as the sign goes.

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I like Pitt. I think anything less than a touchdown

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pits the right side at home. I think they win

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this game by double digits. I like pitting under. I

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think Boston College won't score much at all.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Richard Lockhart coming in here with the Air Force game,

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air Force versus Navy. This is a noon, big kickoff game.

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The total fifty and a half. He got fifty one,

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and he took it to the over one and a half.

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Are you comfortable with that over in that situation?

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Speaker 3: I like the over. I don't love the number, you

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know what I mean. Like if you would have got

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down at fifty and a half, then win or lose,

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I'd say, brother, you placed the good bet. It's fifty

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one and a half, now fifty two. Now what's gonna

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happen is gonna happen. You can't control that, but betting

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it at the top. I don't love, but I do

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agree with the side. I like the over in Air

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Force Navy. These are two teams that know each other

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extremely well. They know how that the other offense operates.

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I think both teams will will will be able to

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put up some points. I like the over anything you know,

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fifty one and a half not the worst number, but

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knowing it was fifty and a half, that worries me

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a little bit, but I think it's overpassed. I think

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you're on the right side.

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Speaker 2: Okay, a couple more questions for you here. Johnny Washington

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at Maryland block got the best bad number. He got

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the bad number, he got minus six. He said, it's

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a shame. Do you still like the bet there, Washington

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coming off that loss to Ohio State.

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Speaker 3: You're good with the six, brother, You're good with the six.

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Washington's the side. I love Washington in that spot. In fact,

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I was considering of making them an even bigger bet

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than I already do, but instead I just came in

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and bet a little money line as well, just to

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add a little more risk, because I think there's a

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great spot for Washington. It's another team that is continued

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to be undervalued, and I think Maryland home field advantage

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doesn't mean much, anything less than a touchdown. I think

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it is the gift at minus six. You didn't get

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a bad number. You're okay there, We're on the same side.

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I like Washington as well, and they came in and

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bet Washington, like first half, another side that they got

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creative to get down on Washington in different ways. So

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I agree with you there.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I like that as well. Austin asking about Troy

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versus South Alabama. Any thoughts on that game. Not a

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lot of people talking about this one, Johnny.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and I haven't seen anything really obviously a big

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line move to the South Alabama side, so it's only

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a Troy or pass situation right now. The negative is

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you're going to opposite a lot of sharp money that's

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on South Alabama. When you see a move like that

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on a matchup like that, rest assured it's sharp money

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related injury. I would think if I dug deep. I

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haven't dug into that matchup because power rating wise, I

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didn't see much of an edge based on power ratings,

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I use if I have to bet it. Obviously now

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it's Troy or pass base where the line move. But

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I wouldn't fade all that sharp money on South Alabama.

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They like it a lot, it looks like.

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Speaker 2: So before we get into what else that you have

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going on for today tomorrow, the steam room is coming

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up after last call? Can you tell us a little

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bit about it?

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Speaker 3: Oh? Yeah, We'll be going into every NFL game as

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much as time permits. I share my son for each matchup.

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We get as we're going along, and of course about

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fifteen minutes for kickoff we tie in those. They're currently

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eight and one on the season. I'm there to answer

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all the questions you have for any game, any matchup,

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any prompt and also obviously we go over long term results,

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short term results, and risk management, so make sure it's

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for long term subscribers. Tomorrow, guys, I think that are

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a month or more, make sure you jump on board.

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We're planning how we're going to close out this year.

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These next couple of months are are huge. The opportunities

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that we have with college football, NFL, UFC, Major League

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Baseball playoffs, college basketball's coming, NBA is coming, NHL, all

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these markets prime time to do damage. Join us in

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the steam room tomorrow. You'll get a lot out of it.

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And last week we went ten to two and see

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if we could repeat that for this Sunday as well.

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Speaker 2: Nicely done there, you guys. Don't miss out on the

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steam room tomorrow with Johnny. Okay, Johnny? What else where

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else are you seeing money coming in? What do people

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have to jump on? Last moment here before these games

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kick off a.

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Speaker 3: Noon college football, let me give you some college football.

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He got Washington, which I really like. Oh, Colorado TCU,

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Colorado TCU under under under under fifty eight. We bet that.

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We bet also this morning over Miami Ohio over nineteen

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first half, Miami Ohio Northern Illinois, and believe it or not,

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Kent State Kent State first half Kent State plus twenty

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eight and a half and also went over three and

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a half Kent State team total. I know everyone's fading them,

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but if they could get a touchdown on the board,

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we should be okay. We just need Kent State to

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score Akron Akron plus eight also good bet. Yeah, I

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got a lot of volume, a lot of vond but

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also baseball. Don't forget there's baseball today. And I'll give

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you a series bet for you that we moved on Milwaukee.

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Bet Milwaukee minus one twenty. I gave that out as

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a four percent series bet over the Cubbies. I think

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they win game one to I haven't bet that, but

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I did take Milwaukee for the series.

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Speaker 2: Oh. I like it, and I love where you're coming

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in with Kent State. One of my favorite football players

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of all time played for Kent State, Antonio Gates, So

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I always have a soft spot for them there, Johnny, Milwaukee.

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I love Milwaukee versus the Cubs in that series should

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be a good one. Those games kicking off later today, Johnny,

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thank you so much for joining us here on last

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Talk call. Absolutely crush the books today. I know you will.

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Speaker 3: Thanks for having me do some damage, Joe, and best

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luck to the whole Way of Talk family. Do some

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damage today.

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Speaker 2: Awesome, Thanks Johnny. We're going to bring in Ralph Michaels next.

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As we bring him in, make sure you guys hit

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that like it, that subscribe button and the notification button,

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and dude, check out the steam room tomorrow with Johnny

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is the Greek. You don't want to miss out on

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everything he's got going there. And I wanted to remind

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you guys the weekend Marior package is still running here

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00:12:57,320 --> 00:13:00,720
for football. Get all of the plays from your handicapper

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00:13:00,759 --> 00:13:03,840
of choice for just forty nine dollars for Saturday and Sunday.

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And they've grown ups row in those Monday plays at

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no extra cost. So let's bring Ralph Michaels into the

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show and see what he's like in Today.

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Speaker 5: Joe, I'd like to officially welcome you to the Wager

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Talk family. I know you've been around. This is our

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first show this season. I'm so happy you're with us.

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Speaker 2: I am so happy to be here, Ralph. I can't

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wait to hear on what you've got go in today.

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I want to know, though, how have you been doing

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so far in this football season, because we haven't had

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a chance to chat.

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Speaker 5: You know, I did drop a five percent total last

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night in college football, but still fourteen and eight this

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college football season, number two in college football since the

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start of last year. I do have three plays today

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and also number two in NFL and college football combined

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since the start of twenty twenty four. I have a

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strong four percent teaser tomorrow sixteen and two on my

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00:13:54,320 --> 00:13:57,600
NFL teasers rated four percent higher. Get all of Saturday

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and Sunday for the forty nine dollars.

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Speaker 2: Sixteen and two in those teasers. That's absolutely phenomenal route.

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00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:07,039
Everyone should head on over and grab those. It sounds

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like free money over there. We got a loaded date

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in college football. We've got lots of questions, lots of

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comments coming in for you before we get into those

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straight off the hap What are you like in here?

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Speaker 3: Rols?

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Speaker 5: You know I've really lowered my my college football volume

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this year and it's worked successfully. So you know, when

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I look at some of the big games you know

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I have, I can say this, I only have three

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client plays today, so that's on the low end for me.

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But looking at the board, you know a couple games

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that were very close to being plays but were not

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for me. I like the Washington side as well, but

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it does scare me them making this long road trip.

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If you look at what Washington did on the road

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last year. They played at Maryland they lost. They played

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at Iowa they lost. They played at Indiana and lost.

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So they traveled east three times and lost those all.

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I do like Michigan. I think they handle Withisconsin with

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both teams off the Bay. And I do think Kansas

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gets the road win at UCF tonight as well.

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Speaker 2: Okay, going with Kansas getting that road win out there,

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let's jump into some of these questions. I'm trying to

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find which one's best. Everyone's asking about the numbers from

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the Westgate. What the Westgate needs you guys, I don't

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have that information this morning. Art de Caesar was unable

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to make the show because he is so swamped over

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there at the Westgate. But we'll try to get those

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numbers for you.

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Speaker 5: What do you think?

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Speaker 2: Okay, so you're liking Washington, you're laying the five and

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a half. Nebraska, did you say you have a play

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on that? People asking Nebraska laying the twelve and a half.

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Speaker 5: I do believe in the Nebraska I did not mention

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that originally. You know, I look at him and I

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the Dylan Ryola factor. True. I truly believe into a

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second season with the eleven to one ratio. I love

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his eight point four YPA. You know the russiattack got

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slowed last week, but that was against Michigan. And one

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thing I do like is I am a big fan

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of Matt Rule. If you remember what Matt Rule did

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taking over a bad Temple team and how he turned

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it around in season two and season three, he went

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and took over a bad Baylor team. What he did

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in season two and improved the season three was amazing.

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He took over a bad Nebraska team. He's not in

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his third year. Why is that so important? Your players

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00:16:21,879 --> 00:16:24,960
are now familiar with the systems, you have seen your leadership.

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These are the kids that you brought in and recruited.

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All of that adds up to a strong Week three.

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I'm not worried about the loss of Michigan. I think

332
00:16:33,159 --> 00:16:35,399
they played very well. They were only out game forty yards,

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00:16:35,480 --> 00:16:36,840
last by forty yards last week.

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Speaker 2: Okay, we got a question here, We've got to answer.

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00:16:39,279 --> 00:16:44,240
Wolf Ies Gaming TV keeps asking about Alabama versus Vandy

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00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:47,120
the under sixty. He's asking. He said he's gonna keep

337
00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:51,440
asking until we answer his question. We did hear Johnny

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and looking at that under there, Ralph, what are you

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00:16:53,919 --> 00:16:54,919
liking in this one?

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Speaker 5: You know, I like Bama, but I am not enamored

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with the under And I'll tell you why. You know,

342
00:17:01,399 --> 00:17:05,680
you look at Vanderbilt and yes, they're very exciting, and

343
00:17:05,839 --> 00:17:10,079
they have Pavia who's playing well. I'm trying to look

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00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:15,880
up though their numbers are facing a number one hundred

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and seventh toughest schedule. There's only one hundred and thirty

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six FBS teams. That's how weak of a schedule Vanderbilt

347
00:17:21,640 --> 00:17:24,759
has played. By the way, Bama is number five in

348
00:17:24,839 --> 00:17:27,400
strength the schedule. And when you look at the past

349
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these that Vanderbilt has faced, they put up those numbers

350
00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:34,319
against past these that were one, twenty eight, eighty one,

351
00:17:34,799 --> 00:17:38,240
seventy eight and thirty six. Bama the number two past

352
00:17:38,319 --> 00:17:42,400
d So I like Bama. If anything, I think Bama

353
00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:45,880
can really slow down Vanderbilt. I would go team total

354
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Bama over not the full game.

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Speaker 2: For me, I love breaking down those team totals. That's

356
00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:53,039
a really nice way to approach that game. Ralph, we

357
00:17:53,160 --> 00:17:56,759
got a question here from Andrew on Wisconsin. He says,

358
00:17:56,759 --> 00:17:59,599
Wisconsin socks, but they're getting seventeen and a half and

359
00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:02,279
we got a low total forty two and a half.

360
00:18:02,559 --> 00:18:05,319
He thinks it seems enticing. What do you think, Ralf?

361
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Speaker 5: I don't I like Michigan here. You know, you look

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00:18:08,519 --> 00:18:11,359
at a Wisconsin team. What are they known for under

363
00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:13,960
Luke Fickel? What they've always been known for. Let's run

364
00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:16,319
the ball, run the ball, run the ball. Well. Getting

365
00:18:16,319 --> 00:18:19,920
held to ninety two yards on thirty four carries at Bama,

366
00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:22,160
it was not bad two point seven yards per carry,

367
00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:25,039
but they still only total two hundred nine yards. What

368
00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:27,799
does concern me is the next game they were held

369
00:18:27,839 --> 00:18:30,759
to two hundred ninety six yards and sixty one yards

370
00:18:30,839 --> 00:18:34,039
rushing against Maryland at home. So now going on the

371
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road where they're not going to be able to run

372
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the ball against one of the best rush defenses in

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the country, by the way, Michigan allowing two point three

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00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:47,480
yards per carry. Michigan also with fifteen sacks on the season,

375
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and Wisconsin's O line has been sacked ten times the

376
00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:54,640
last two games. Michigan was actually close to being a

377
00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:55,480
client player for me.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I want to ask you about a seven thirty

379
00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:02,240
Eastern game. No one's brought this up so far in

380
00:19:02,319 --> 00:19:05,799
the live chat. Mississippi State taken on A, Texas A

381
00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:07,720
and M. Texas A and M A sixteen and a

382
00:19:07,759 --> 00:19:10,559
half point favorite in this one Ralph total of fifty

383
00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:13,839
seven and a half. Any trends leaning you one way

384
00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:16,319
or the other, anything you're liking in this one.

385
00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:20,559
Speaker 5: Well, I do actually lean Mississippi State.

386
00:19:20,599 --> 00:19:20,880
Speaker 3: Here.

387
00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:23,680
Speaker 5: You look at Texas A and M and yeah, we

388
00:19:23,759 --> 00:19:26,640
remember the forty one points they scored at Notre Dame.

389
00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:29,400
But let's also remember what they did last week against

390
00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:32,880
Auburn twenty one first downs. They did get four hundred

391
00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:35,599
and fourteen yards, but it was much tougher in the

392
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red zone. They only totaled sixteen points. The Utah State

393
00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:43,559
and Utah State and UTSA games again forty plus points,

394
00:19:43,599 --> 00:19:46,960
but again those are misleading against that type of defense.

395
00:19:47,519 --> 00:19:52,680
What has impressed me is the is the Bulldogs defense.

396
00:19:53,079 --> 00:19:55,480
You look at their defense and they're actually top thirty

397
00:19:55,519 --> 00:19:58,480
when you look at what they've done versus what their

398
00:19:58,519 --> 00:20:01,880
opponents lowed and miss on the road. They held them

399
00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:04,119
to a season low, Arizona State, they held them to

400
00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:06,319
a season low. Elcorn State they held them to a

401
00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:10,079
season low. And Tennessee last week, Yes, Tennessee scored four

402
00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:11,960
hundred and sixty six yards and you could say that's

403
00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:14,960
a bad game, but if it's their season low, it's

404
00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:18,039
a good performance, not a bad performance. If they hold

405
00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:19,880
A and M to a season though, that puts them

406
00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:22,400
under four hundred yards. There's no way I'm gonna lay

407
00:20:22,519 --> 00:20:25,440
double digits with a team that if they can only

408
00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:28,000
get three hundred and fifty to four hundred yards, it's

409
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:30,079
not a team I'm going to back. I lean Mississippi

410
00:20:30,079 --> 00:20:32,400
State on nearly strong enough though to be a client play.

411
00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:40,079
Speaker 2: Okay, great advice there, Fall State versus Ohio. Any thoughts

412
00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:40,920
on this.

413
00:20:40,799 --> 00:20:47,200
Speaker 5: One, Yeah, hop out if I say that I have

414
00:20:47,279 --> 00:20:50,880
a client play on this, Yeah, it is on a

415
00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:53,920
team total and it is not on the Cardinals.

416
00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:59,480
Speaker 2: Okay, Okay, that is great to hear. Ralph. You guys

417
00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:01,960
head on over to wager talk dot com to get

418
00:21:02,039 --> 00:21:06,480
Ralph's best bets, and you're part of the weekend Warrior package, right, Ralph.

419
00:21:06,519 --> 00:21:09,319
Speaker 5: Oh, absolutely, all the pappers that wager tuk are. You're

420
00:21:09,319 --> 00:21:13,319
getting everyone's college football on Saturday, You're getting everyone's NFL

421
00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:16,839
on Sunday, and if anyone has an NFL play on Monday,

422
00:21:17,079 --> 00:21:20,200
that gets added in as a bonus forty nine bucks.

423
00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:22,240
I'll tell you about Joe. We started this couple weeks

424
00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:25,079
ago and we have basically doubled the number of people.

425
00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:27,400
It's such a great value, it's such a great special.

426
00:21:27,559 --> 00:21:29,519
But I do want to mention something for next week.

427
00:21:30,039 --> 00:21:31,680
If you know you're going to sign up for a

428
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,519
cap or do not wait until Saturday. If you say, hey,

429
00:21:34,559 --> 00:21:36,759
I know I'm gonna use Ralph next week, sign up

430
00:21:36,759 --> 00:21:39,119
on Monday, and as soon as I release those plays,

431
00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:41,279
you get them. Be it Tuesday, be it Wednesday, be

432
00:21:41,319 --> 00:21:44,720
at Thursday, and therefore you can get the exact line

433
00:21:44,799 --> 00:21:46,640
value the cappers want you to get.

434
00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:49,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, you definitely want to get the best of the number,

435
00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:51,880
So head on over. I'm earlier next week, but head

436
00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:54,119
on over. Now you'll still get some great lines out

437
00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:57,279
there for that weekend Warrior package. Ralph, there is one

438
00:21:57,279 --> 00:22:00,319
more question here before I let you go, Actually a

439
00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:03,200
couple more questions. If you've got the time, thoughts on

440
00:22:03,319 --> 00:22:06,359
Purdue today, Ralse, do you think they can pull out

441
00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:06,599
the win?

442
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:11,279
Speaker 5: You know, Purdue's a team that I have just misread,

443
00:22:11,599 --> 00:22:14,839
and I think every capital will tell you this show.

444
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:17,240
If you get into a situation where you read a

445
00:22:17,279 --> 00:22:19,799
team wrong once, that's no problem. If you read a

446
00:22:19,839 --> 00:22:22,440
team wrong twice, that is an issue when you start

447
00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:25,359
getting a team wrong for three state times. I often

448
00:22:25,519 --> 00:22:28,079
put it aside, wait for a couple more weeks than look,

449
00:22:28,279 --> 00:22:31,759
and I did not give plays out or plays against.

450
00:22:32,079 --> 00:22:34,279
But every every day on the sheet, I take the

451
00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:36,920
entire schedule and I mark down what I think it's

452
00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:39,000
going to be and where my leans were. So while

453
00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:41,400
I may not have been zero to three on Purdue,

454
00:22:41,519 --> 00:22:44,160
my opinions are oh with three, so I've taken them out.

455
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:46,839
I was impressed with their thirty points against Notre Dame.

456
00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:49,799
Remember if you think back to that Irish game, Purdue

457
00:22:49,839 --> 00:22:52,039
was playing them play for play, and then we had

458
00:22:52,079 --> 00:22:55,400
the long ring delay and lightning delay and they that

459
00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:58,119
young team could just not cope coming back out on

460
00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:00,920
the field where Notre Dame is the more team, and

461
00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:04,440
they pulled away in the second half. Illinois again a

462
00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:07,559
good story, but their defense is not impressive. You know,

463
00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:09,480
it's middle of the road when you look at what

464
00:23:09,519 --> 00:23:12,039
they've allowed. They allowed a couple guys. They held Western

465
00:23:12,079 --> 00:23:16,119
Michigan and Western Illinois the season lows, but against legitimate defenses.

466
00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:19,759
Five hundred yards against LSU. Western Michigan even scored three

467
00:23:19,759 --> 00:23:22,720
point fifty eight. We know how bad that offense is,

468
00:23:22,799 --> 00:23:25,119
and Duke put up four to nineteen. So I think

469
00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:28,160
Purdue can keep it close, but again not strong enough

470
00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:29,200
for me to get to the window.

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Speaker 2: Okay, and then the last one here Texas Texas in

472
00:23:33,279 --> 00:23:35,720
action today. Do you think they can get it done rough?

473
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Speaker 5: You know, Florida is set a head case. You look

474
00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:44,920
at their statistical profile and they're pretty amazing. They've outgained

475
00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:47,920
their opponents by forty four yards per game. That's a

476
00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:51,119
one in three team. You look at the problem though,

477
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:53,079
as their d line doesn't get any pressure. They only

478
00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:56,920
have two sacks in four games this year. The offense

479
00:23:56,960 --> 00:24:01,240
has allowed seven sacks. The last two games. But I

480
00:24:01,279 --> 00:24:03,200
look at A and M and I don't trust them

481
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:06,039
going on the road against what is still a good defense.

482
00:24:06,079 --> 00:24:07,920
If Florida State hadn't turned the ball over, they at

483
00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:10,319
least get one, maybe two more of those wins, and

484
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:16,200
it's an entire different story. I actually talked about this

485
00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:19,160
on the Blitz with Brian Power and Steve Merrill sat

486
00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:21,920
in and my best bet in this game breaking it

487
00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:25,400
down was the Florida Gator team total under seventeen and

488
00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:28,240
a half. Remember one hundred and forty one yards against

489
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:31,519
Bama last week and only one nine and two point

490
00:24:31,599 --> 00:24:35,079
nine excuse me against Miami of Florida last week and

491
00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:37,920
they're under three point zero rushing the last couple of games.

492
00:24:38,079 --> 00:24:41,000
I think Florida really struggles. Give me team total under.

493
00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:43,440
Speaker 2: Okay, Ral, thank you so much for joining us here

494
00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:47,519
today on a last call. Really appreciate all of your insights.

495
00:24:47,559 --> 00:24:50,319
Now you're part of the weekend Warrior package. You got

496
00:24:50,319 --> 00:24:53,279
those teasers tomorrow, But what else can people expect?

497
00:24:53,559 --> 00:24:53,839
Speaker 5: That's it?

498
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:54,200
Speaker 2: You know.

499
00:24:54,319 --> 00:24:57,680
Speaker 5: I loaded a free play today. It's a client play

500
00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:00,160
in baseball. It's up on my free pay page. Just

501
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:02,200
head to my page and check out a free play.

502
00:25:02,599 --> 00:25:05,599
I do want to mention one thing to you, Joe.

503
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,519
I saw someone talk about wind somewhere I think in

504
00:25:08,599 --> 00:25:11,359
Missouri and the notes, and I do want to mention that,

505
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:15,559
now that's October, those wins have to be part of

506
00:25:15,599 --> 00:25:18,519
your handicapping. And I don't have the college numbers, but

507
00:25:18,559 --> 00:25:22,119
I will tell you this. In the NFL, not cold,

508
00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:25,640
even if it's about freezing, wins over eight miles an

509
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:28,720
hour have gone fifty seven percent to the under since

510
00:25:28,759 --> 00:25:32,119
twenty eighteen. So again I don't have the college numbers

511
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:35,720
for you, but make sure you're handicapping wind speed if

512
00:25:35,759 --> 00:25:36,839
you're looking at totals.

513
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:39,640
Speaker 2: Okay, I've got a quick question for you on that though.

514
00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:42,000
When are you accounting for that weather. Are you trying

515
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:44,039
to get the best of the number when you hear

516
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:47,279
the forecast that week out, or are you waiting until

517
00:25:47,319 --> 00:25:47,720
game day?

518
00:25:47,799 --> 00:25:51,200
Speaker 5: Rock I normally don't bet totals early. I bet I

519
00:25:51,319 --> 00:25:53,920
start releasing sides on Tuesday or Wednesday. I at least

520
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:56,680
wait till Thursday for totals. So we're getting a more

521
00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:59,680
accurate seventy two hour forecast because we know it can

522
00:25:59,759 --> 00:26:02,079
change so much. But when we get in that forty

523
00:26:02,079 --> 00:26:04,319
eight hour to seventy two hour window. There's so many

524
00:26:04,319 --> 00:26:07,079
great weather channels. Now, just make sure you don't make

525
00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:10,119
sure you don't look at the seven day and say, okay,

526
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:12,480
it shows wins twenty miles an hour. Make sure you're

527
00:26:12,519 --> 00:26:14,640
going hour by hour to check what it should be

528
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:17,240
for the period of the game, which obviously gets a

529
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:18,559
lot easier closer.

530
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:18,960
Speaker 3: To the games.

531
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:21,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, it absolutely does. Ralph, thank you so much for

532
00:26:22,079 --> 00:26:25,480
joining us here on last calls Viewers, see you later.

533
00:26:26,079 --> 00:26:28,480
Thank you you guys. That was Ralph Michaels. We're going

534
00:26:28,519 --> 00:26:31,200
to bring Jesse shows into the show in just a

535
00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:33,440
moment to answer all of your questions. Make sure you

536
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:35,960
do drop them here in the live chat. If you're

537
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:40,160
watching on any other channels, come on over to YouTube

538
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:43,400
so you can drop those live questions here. We can

539
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:45,359
get to them, we can answer them. But let's bring

540
00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:48,160
Jesse's shows into the show and see what he's like.

541
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:50,119
And he said he would talk to a couple of

542
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:53,680
these ones out here with us. Jesse. Happy Saturday.

543
00:26:54,519 --> 00:26:56,519
Speaker 4: Yeah, I hope it's going to be a happy Saturday.

544
00:26:56,519 --> 00:26:59,400
We're just getting started. Well, we'll see how it pans out.

545
00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:02,799
But everybody wanted to talk about Vandy and Bama. I

546
00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:07,119
definitely want to talk Vandy and Bama. People talking about

547
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:11,079
the total, I think it's important to understand that Alabama's

548
00:27:11,079 --> 00:27:15,920
got two key defenders suspended for the first half for targeting. Now,

549
00:27:16,039 --> 00:27:18,799
to me, if you like Vandy, and I know a

550
00:27:18,799 --> 00:27:22,200
lot of people out there love Vandy this week, I don't.

551
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:25,920
As Ralph mentioned, their strength of schedule is questionable. They

552
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:29,759
caught Alabama nappan last year, Kaylin de Boor and an

553
00:27:29,799 --> 00:27:32,759
Alabama program isn't the kind of team that you get

554
00:27:32,799 --> 00:27:35,599
one over on twice in a row when you're Vandy.

555
00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:37,359
I think Vandy's a good team. I'm not trying to

556
00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:41,039
disrespect Fandy, but very few teams go into Tuscaloosa and

557
00:27:41,079 --> 00:27:44,000
beat Alabama. Let's face it, they just won at Georgia,

558
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:46,720
the only team that's done that and since twenty nineteen.

559
00:27:47,759 --> 00:27:50,079
I just don't think it's realistic to expect Vandy to

560
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:53,480
compete with Alabama in this game.

561
00:27:53,519 --> 00:27:54,119
Speaker 1: But if you like.

562
00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:56,720
Speaker 4: Vandy, take them for the first half plus seven points,

563
00:27:56,759 --> 00:27:59,960
because if they can't get theirs in the first half

564
00:28:00,559 --> 00:28:03,240
with those two key defenders on the bench for those

565
00:28:03,279 --> 00:28:06,759
targeting penalties, if they're down by double digits of the half,

566
00:28:06,759 --> 00:28:09,359
they're not coming back in my opinion. So if you

567
00:28:09,519 --> 00:28:11,880
like Vandy, take it for the first half. If you

568
00:28:12,039 --> 00:28:15,000
like the over, also take it for the first half.

569
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:18,000
And that's another reason why that you're seeing that total

570
00:28:18,039 --> 00:28:20,880
get bet up. Somebody was mentioning they really liked the under.

571
00:28:22,079 --> 00:28:25,160
Alabama's got a good defense, there's no question about it.

572
00:28:26,319 --> 00:28:29,640
Fandy's got a great offense, though very efficient offense. They

573
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:33,640
were very efficient last year. And there is injury concerns

574
00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:37,960
those two suspended players. They lost a few significant defenders,

575
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:40,400
they got a few back. I think they're gonna be

576
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:42,039
good enough in this game to run away with it

577
00:28:42,079 --> 00:28:43,880
in the end. But I think we could see a

578
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:45,359
lot of points on the board in this game.

579
00:28:45,799 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 2: Okay, So when you're liking the point in the first

580
00:28:48,039 --> 00:28:50,559
betting that first half to the over, Jesse, what is

581
00:28:50,559 --> 00:28:54,119
your strategy in your live betting of these games? Would

582
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:56,240
that be then a number where you would come back

583
00:28:56,279 --> 00:28:58,880
in on the under. One cis total just inflates that

584
00:28:58,920 --> 00:28:59,400
a little bit.

585
00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 4: I wouldn't lie. I bet it. Like I said, it's

586
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:07,240
a pregame bet for me. I'm looking at first half

587
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:09,519
bets before kickoff and set it and forget it.

588
00:29:10,039 --> 00:29:13,720
Speaker 2: Okay, we've got some questions here on Nebraska. They're saying

589
00:29:13,759 --> 00:29:17,880
the winds coming in on Nebraska twenty three miles per hour.

590
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:20,119
I'm not sure, Jesse, is that what you're seeing as

591
00:29:20,119 --> 00:29:20,960
well for that game.

592
00:29:21,839 --> 00:29:25,559
Speaker 4: I hadn't researched the wind in Nebraska. But if you're

593
00:29:25,599 --> 00:29:29,319
getting that from a reputable source and you look at

594
00:29:29,319 --> 00:29:31,319
the total from when it opened, and if it's still

595
00:29:31,359 --> 00:29:34,880
hovering around that in that neighborhood, I would say the

596
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:36,119
under is a good bet.

597
00:29:36,319 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 2: Okay, going with the under there. If that wind really

598
00:29:39,359 --> 00:29:46,480
is coming Miami. Miami is an action here versus FSU Jesse.

599
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:52,039
Speaker 4: Any leans on this game, well, I mean, if you're

600
00:29:52,039 --> 00:29:56,279
just asking for a lean without too much emphasis or spirit,

601
00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:59,319
I gotta lean Miami either. Coming off of bye, they

602
00:29:59,359 --> 00:30:03,680
got a really stingy defense, number one defense in the ACC.

603
00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:08,119
They're really good against the run. And I'm not sold

604
00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:11,240
on Florida State. I think Florida State's still sort of

605
00:30:11,359 --> 00:30:14,599
living off that Alabama win. You know, so they beat

606
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:17,839
Alabama in Week one and then they play East Texas

607
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:20,519
A and M and Kent State. You don't get any

608
00:30:20,519 --> 00:30:24,279
credit for me for beating those guys, and I don't know,

609
00:30:24,559 --> 00:30:26,440
for those of you who don't know, I had Virginia

610
00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:29,160
on the money line last week, so you know I

611
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:31,119
didn't like Florida State in that game. I thought it

612
00:30:31,119 --> 00:30:35,359
was a tricky spot for them. Anyways, I think under

613
00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:39,160
in this game, particularly in the first half, because I

614
00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:41,759
think the better offense is on the road in a

615
00:30:41,799 --> 00:30:43,759
bit of a it's a tough environment. I mean, Florida

616
00:30:43,759 --> 00:30:46,400
State is gonna I think Florida State is certainly gonna compete.

617
00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:48,839
I'm not gonna throw them under the bus and say

618
00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:51,200
they're gonna get blown out, but I think they're better

619
00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:55,880
defensively than they are offensively. I'm not a big Castellanos fan,

620
00:30:56,480 --> 00:30:59,680
and I think Miami is gonna cause some problems for him.

621
00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:03,200
The under for the first half was hovering around twenty seven.

622
00:31:03,519 --> 00:31:05,799
I think we could expect a first half under in

623
00:31:05,839 --> 00:31:07,279
that Miami Florida State game.

624
00:31:07,559 --> 00:31:09,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, we got a full game total about fifty three

625
00:31:09,759 --> 00:31:11,839
and a half. Florida State has taken three of the

626
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:15,799
last four matchups over Miami, but I think Miami's gonna

627
00:31:15,839 --> 00:31:18,759
come in so strong. You're looking at their quarterback Carson

628
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:21,720
Beck and he's just been a lights out out there.

629
00:31:21,799 --> 00:31:23,960
Do you think he could go number one in the draft? Jesse?

630
00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:30,599
Speaker 4: He could? I would. I like ty Simpson myself. I

631
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:33,680
liked him before the season started. And one of the

632
00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:37,160
reasons I like ty Simpson is I like kayland Bor.

633
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:39,680
I think Kaylen de Bor's I mean, you don't get

634
00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:43,599
the Alabama job unless somebody thinks you're something special. I mean,

635
00:31:43,839 --> 00:31:47,319
he's following Nick saban steps footsteps. You look at what

636
00:31:47,359 --> 00:31:51,359
he did at Washington and at Fred's Fresno State in

637
00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:54,240
the Mountain West, and he's you know, he just beat

638
00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:59,039
Georgia last week. So Kaylen de Boor decides this guy's

639
00:31:59,039 --> 00:32:02,680
going to be my starting core her back. I don't

640
00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:05,039
think Kaylen de Boor is rolling into the SEC play

641
00:32:05,119 --> 00:32:07,519
with the with a guy that isn't great and ty

642
00:32:07,559 --> 00:32:12,880
Simpson so far no interceptions, eleven touchdowns. I think at

643
00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:15,799
this point, if I was drafting in a number one right now,

644
00:32:15,799 --> 00:32:16,880
it might be ty Simpson.

645
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:20,480
Speaker 2: Ty Simpson sounds like Nick Saban when they interview him.

646
00:32:20,519 --> 00:32:23,039
It's actually kind of crazy out there, Jesse. But you

647
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:26,920
a b at today against Army. Any thoughts on this one?

648
00:32:27,319 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 4: Well before I get into that. You said, Ty Simpson

649
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:33,920
sounds like Nick Saban. John Mattier sounds like Baker Mayfield.

650
00:32:34,319 --> 00:32:37,599
Speaker 2: To me, Oh, I'm gonna have to listen to that. Okay,

651
00:32:37,799 --> 00:32:38,759
I like I do like.

652
00:32:38,839 --> 00:32:41,000
Speaker 4: I like John Mattier as well, but as far as

653
00:32:41,119 --> 00:32:42,480
I don't think he's going to be the number one

654
00:32:42,519 --> 00:32:45,400
pick in the draft because I think his his skill

655
00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:49,480
set is better for college. But you ab an army. Now,

656
00:32:49,519 --> 00:32:50,960
me and my friends we like to call this a

657
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:55,000
Sico game, and friends don't let friends bet Sico games,

658
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:58,480
and friends definitely don't let friends bet on U a B.

659
00:32:59,720 --> 00:33:02,200
It may be the right bet. I've heard some talk

660
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:04,720
of this, but I don't want to get involved in

661
00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:05,400
that game at all.

662
00:33:06,119 --> 00:33:08,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's gonna be an ugly one for sure. Never

663
00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:10,599
heard anyone call it the Sico game, But I guess

664
00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:13,119
that is a sicko game of the day. You guys

665
00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:17,119
from Jesse UA B versus Armies, stay off that one.

666
00:33:17,559 --> 00:33:21,480
What about Kansas State? Do you like Kansas State today?

667
00:33:21,519 --> 00:33:23,480
To come out strong? I know a couple of people

668
00:33:23,559 --> 00:33:26,079
who are fans of Kansas State are gonna fade them today.

669
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:30,240
Speaker 4: I don't love Kansas State this season as a team

670
00:33:30,279 --> 00:33:32,559
I bet against them. I bet on Iowa State in

671
00:33:32,599 --> 00:33:38,079
Ireland just getting points with rock O beecked the experience factor.

672
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:40,960
I liked Iowa State. That was a close game, and

673
00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:43,960
I think people lose sight of the fact that Kansas State. Yeah,

674
00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:46,480
they had a terrible start to the season, but they

675
00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:51,039
were losing close games and Baylor was so highly touted.

676
00:33:51,079 --> 00:33:53,240
Everybody thought Baylor was gonna just run away with the

677
00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:56,720
Big twelve. Their defense has been atrocious. They can't stop anybody.

678
00:33:57,119 --> 00:34:01,400
So I certainly wouldn't be laying points with Bayaylor in

679
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:04,440
a game where you know, Kansas State sort of seems

680
00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:07,200
like they may have righted the ship, so I would

681
00:34:07,279 --> 00:34:10,800
lean Kansas State. But I'm not dying to get my

682
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:12,199
money on Kansas State or anything.

683
00:34:12,599 --> 00:34:15,760
Speaker 2: Okay, And then winning is asking do you have any

684
00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:18,880
dogs for us today? Who's barking out there? Jesse?

685
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:23,800
Speaker 4: There's one I really like, Poise State. It's like people

686
00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:27,880
are betting Notre Dame like it's free money. Reminds me

687
00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:30,639
of the Rams on Thursday Night Football, and I had

688
00:34:30,679 --> 00:34:33,400
a lot to say about that game on several different shows,

689
00:34:33,440 --> 00:34:36,320
a couple of them with you, Joe. Whenever I see

690
00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:39,159
people betting a team like it's free money. I'm pretty

691
00:34:39,159 --> 00:34:42,239
skeptical and this one is another case of that. Let

692
00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:44,320
me tell you about Boise State. Yeah, and they're another

693
00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:48,320
team that lost that high profile game. Everybody was watching

694
00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:53,280
them lose to South Florida. You know, bad game. A

695
00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:57,159
lot of teams have bad games. They've since recovered. They're

696
00:34:57,199 --> 00:34:59,639
winning sort of in ugly fashion. They're giving up a

697
00:34:59,639 --> 00:35:02,679
ton of point it's Boise State can't stop anybody right now,

698
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:05,079
but they're also scoring a ton of points. They can

699
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:07,960
put a fifty burger on the board with the best

700
00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:11,280
of them. Now, this Boise State team last year clinched

701
00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:13,559
a first round by in the playoffs, ran away with

702
00:35:13,599 --> 00:35:16,960
the Mountain West. They beat some good teams, they had

703
00:35:17,000 --> 00:35:20,400
competitive They lost to Oregon at Oregon by three points.

704
00:35:20,679 --> 00:35:23,519
The only difference between that team and this team is

705
00:35:23,559 --> 00:35:26,360
Ashton genty. And you're thinking, you say, oh, that's a

706
00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:29,800
big difference. Well, maybe we've got to give a little

707
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:32,239
bit of credit to the coaching staff and the offensive line.

708
00:35:32,639 --> 00:35:35,599
And you know, you fit in another talented running back

709
00:35:35,639 --> 00:35:39,840
behind that offensive line in that system, and the current

710
00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:42,480
guy is averaging more yards per carry than Genty did.

711
00:35:42,559 --> 00:35:45,000
Last year. I'm not saying he's better than genty. I'm

712
00:35:45,000 --> 00:35:48,760
saying they're not gonna miss genty that much this season.

713
00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:51,800
And this line opened at seventeen and a half. It's

714
00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:54,360
been bet all the way up to twenty one. I

715
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:56,639
think you're crazy if you land twenty one against this

716
00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:59,039
Boise State team. I like Boise State is my dog

717
00:35:59,079 --> 00:35:59,840
of the day.

718
00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:03,039
Speaker 2: Okay, nice talk of a day there with the Boise Stay.

719
00:36:03,199 --> 00:36:05,679
We're seeing Anthony with the love for Kelly. I know

720
00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:09,159
you miss Kelly. Kelly's true. We'll be back here next Saturday,

721
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:12,880
afore sure, so don't worry. She's coming on back. Ariel

722
00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:15,159
will be joining you guys tomorrow for a last call

723
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:19,039
for your NFL Sunday last call. We do have a question.

724
00:36:19,199 --> 00:36:22,039
I know we're talking football here, but there's a question

725
00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:27,679
about baseball for today, Jesse. Any thoughts on today's baseball slay?

726
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:31,679
The Detroit Tiger somehow made it through to today. They're

727
00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:34,840
gonna have a tough series. There any hopes for any

728
00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:35,599
of these teams?

729
00:36:36,599 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, I any chance I can get to bet against

730
00:36:39,519 --> 00:36:42,960
the Detroit Tigers, I gotta take it. The way they

731
00:36:43,079 --> 00:36:48,519
finish the regular season, they were fortunate to get past Cleveland. Yeah,

732
00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:51,440
I'll probably be betting against the Tigers in every game

733
00:36:51,480 --> 00:36:55,400
in their series against Seattle. So that's my opinion of

734
00:36:55,440 --> 00:37:01,239
that series. Jeez, I looked at the other games. I

735
00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:03,639
think I want to see Game ones play out before

736
00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:07,480
before I you know, that's one series I have an

737
00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:10,320
opinion on right away. The rest I kind of want

738
00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:14,280
to see the way Game ones play out, and moving

739
00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:16,400
forward will have some action on those other series.

740
00:37:16,679 --> 00:37:18,280
Speaker 2: You and I kind of touched on it, and I

741
00:37:18,360 --> 00:37:20,320
just want to quickly mention this before we get back

742
00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:22,960
to football. The Toronto Blue Jays kind of held together

743
00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:25,159
with duct tape. Was you're saying, not mine, but I

744
00:37:25,199 --> 00:37:29,199
completely agree with you. They're in that series versus the Yankees. Yes,

745
00:37:29,280 --> 00:37:32,840
they're at home. But Kevin Gosman, he's been good this year.

746
00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:35,360
They're the savored at minus one twenty four. I expected

747
00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:37,880
that to be more of a pick and Jesse versus

748
00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:42,360
the Yankees Gilgen the start. There any thoughts on if

749
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:43,880
the Yankees can take that series?

750
00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:47,519
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean Toronto hasn't played for a few days now,

751
00:37:47,599 --> 00:37:51,599
so and the Yankees sort of, you know, they were

752
00:37:51,679 --> 00:37:54,639
hitting the ball against Boston. They've got the moment. They're

753
00:37:54,679 --> 00:38:00,000
coming in sort of with momentum. I can't lay a price. Again,

754
00:38:00,039 --> 00:38:02,880
it's the Yankees, you know. The Blue Jays are a favorite.

755
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:06,360
They earn that they've got home home field, but they

756
00:38:06,360 --> 00:38:09,000
don't have Boba Schett, like you said, they're kind of

757
00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:13,639
held together with duct tape. Gousman's a good picture, you know.

758
00:38:13,639 --> 00:38:16,280
I don't want to say anything negative out above about him,

759
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:19,400
but he's not a guy that I tend to have

760
00:38:19,519 --> 00:38:23,639
my money on as far as from my opinion of

761
00:38:23,719 --> 00:38:26,280
him to the according to the price that's offered when

762
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:28,920
he pitches, I don't consider him like a guy that

763
00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:31,440
I'm running out to get to the window on when

764
00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:34,599
he's pitching. There are other pictures like that. There are

765
00:38:34,599 --> 00:38:36,840
other pictures like that on this Blue Jays team. So

766
00:38:37,559 --> 00:38:39,719
we'll see how Game one plays out. Like I said,

767
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:42,840
but I agree that there's no value in the Jays

768
00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:44,360
at the current price in games.

769
00:38:45,159 --> 00:38:48,159
Speaker 2: Definitely, I'm a fan. I don't want to put my

770
00:38:48,199 --> 00:38:50,639
money there at that price. We do have a question

771
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:54,440
here about Clemson, a North Carolina. North Carolina home dog.

772
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:57,800
They're grabbing fifteen and a half. You're at home total

773
00:38:57,920 --> 00:39:00,519
forty seven and a half. But is this clumsy to

774
00:39:00,679 --> 00:39:02,599
just roll in here and get a big win on

775
00:39:02,639 --> 00:39:03,000
the road?

776
00:39:04,599 --> 00:39:07,559
Speaker 4: I mean that makes sense. It does make sense. But

777
00:39:07,760 --> 00:39:10,000
based on what I've seen from both these two teams,

778
00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:13,559
and this is going to sound crazy, but is this

779
00:39:13,599 --> 00:39:17,199
a SICO game? Like I think this is legitis? You know,

780
00:39:17,280 --> 00:39:21,079
Clemson is legit a CICO game right now? You know,

781
00:39:21,280 --> 00:39:23,239
I and I was so high on Clemson coming to

782
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:27,480
the season. They were a good team last year ACC champs,

783
00:39:28,280 --> 00:39:32,480
they went to the playoffs and a great season for

784
00:39:32,559 --> 00:39:37,039
Cade club Nick. Finally that connection with the offensive coordinator

785
00:39:37,079 --> 00:39:40,559
worked out, and the returning everybody number one in the

786
00:39:40,559 --> 00:39:43,679
country and returning production, get all their guys back, and

787
00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:46,320
all of a sudden they suck. So why is that?

788
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:49,000
You're going to have to talk to a better man

789
00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:49,840
than me to find out.

790
00:39:50,199 --> 00:39:52,440
Speaker 2: Okay, we got another home dog and a question here

791
00:39:52,480 --> 00:39:55,280
on Houston. Houston a twelve and a half point dog

792
00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:59,239
at home taking on Texas Tech, number eleven during in

793
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:02,039
the nation, total fifty and a half in this one.

794
00:40:02,119 --> 00:40:04,079
Did you have any liens going into this game?

795
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:07,400
Speaker 4: I think I have a lean. I have to admit

796
00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:09,599
that I don't know a ton about this Houston team.

797
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:12,800
They haven't played anybody, so it's difficult for me to

798
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:15,159
say this is what I think this Houston team can

799
00:40:15,199 --> 00:40:18,199
do because we've only seen them play cupcakes to date,

800
00:40:18,599 --> 00:40:21,360
and then they struggled at Oregon State, and Oregon State's

801
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:24,559
not a good team. That said, Oregon State playing at

802
00:40:24,639 --> 00:40:27,920
Corvallis is tough for anybody. They did win the game.

803
00:40:28,639 --> 00:40:31,679
You got Connor Wegman at quarterback. He's a guy that's

804
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:34,639
not built for the SEC. He might be an adequate

805
00:40:34,679 --> 00:40:38,079
quarterback in the Big twelve, but right off the hop

806
00:40:38,119 --> 00:40:40,519
it just looks like Texas Tech coming in is a

807
00:40:40,599 --> 00:40:42,639
road favorite. I've seen it this line as high as

808
00:40:42,679 --> 00:40:47,159
thirteen and a half and Houston plays pretty strong defense,

809
00:40:47,239 --> 00:40:52,440
pretty strong home field advantage, good coaching matchup, the quarterback matchup,

810
00:40:52,440 --> 00:40:54,639
I don't I'm not going to say Baron Morton's so

811
00:40:54,760 --> 00:40:57,719
much better than Connor Wegman. Give me thirteen and a

812
00:40:57,760 --> 00:40:59,800
half points with the home dog is the way i'd lean.

813
00:41:00,559 --> 00:41:02,920
Speaker 2: I love a good home dog, that is for sure.

814
00:41:03,079 --> 00:41:06,119
South Alabama versus Troy the next home dog up there

815
00:41:06,119 --> 00:41:09,400
on the slate. This question popped up ages ago. Any

816
00:41:09,519 --> 00:41:12,840
love for Troy, They're only grabbing one and a half Jesse.

817
00:41:13,079 --> 00:41:15,760
That's uh plus one hundred on the money line if

818
00:41:15,760 --> 00:41:17,519
you like Troy versus South Alabama.

819
00:41:20,039 --> 00:41:23,320
Speaker 4: I haven't been following these two teams in recent weeks.

820
00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:26,480
I was sort of high on South Alabama a couple

821
00:41:26,519 --> 00:41:28,760
of weeks ago, and then they went out and lost

822
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:33,320
to Coastal Carolina. So that blew that right out of

823
00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:37,880
the water. So I uh, I'm a bit trigger trigger

824
00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:40,239
shy for this game. So I got I got nothing

825
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:41,119
for you for this game.

826
00:41:41,519 --> 00:41:46,159
Speaker 2: Yeah, we've got a comment here that I'm a wagering man.

827
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:50,400
I bet Pres is watching smoking a cigarette, cigarette or cigar.

828
00:41:50,559 --> 00:41:52,960
I think maybe he's got the cigar roll in this morning.

829
00:41:53,159 --> 00:41:55,519
Speaker 4: I think I think Pres quit smoking, didn't he? I

830
00:41:55,559 --> 00:41:56,760
believe he quit smoking.

831
00:41:57,280 --> 00:42:01,000
Speaker 3: Wow, yeah, that is because I've.

832
00:42:00,840 --> 00:42:03,760
Speaker 4: Been doing the live End Zone show, and I'll be

833
00:42:03,840 --> 00:42:06,719
on that show tomorrow. We'll be live streaming the first

834
00:42:06,760 --> 00:42:09,840
the early games in the NFL, and he hasn't been

835
00:42:09,840 --> 00:42:12,199
smoking on the show. I myself have been drinking on

836
00:42:12,239 --> 00:42:15,119
the show, a couple bottles of wine and cheese plates

837
00:42:15,159 --> 00:42:19,000
and nuts and you know, all the chacutiies. Oh, very

838
00:42:19,079 --> 00:42:19,639
nice stuff.

839
00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:22,400
Speaker 2: I can't wait to see the checuterie board that you

840
00:42:22,440 --> 00:42:23,880
have roll in tomorrow.

841
00:42:23,519 --> 00:42:26,199
Speaker 4: For the end z on you guys on the It's

842
00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:28,880
right where I'm at, so it's not quite as naughty.

843
00:42:28,880 --> 00:42:31,519
It's not like I'm drinking bottles of wine at ten am.

844
00:42:32,199 --> 00:42:32,400
Speaker 3: Wow.

845
00:42:32,519 --> 00:42:35,280
Speaker 2: We've got the early game in the NFL tomorrow. It's

846
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:38,199
going to kick off overseas, so early in Dublin. So

847
00:42:38,239 --> 00:42:41,519
anyone that's got leftover pizza from tonight and having that

848
00:42:41,519 --> 00:42:44,440
beer on a Sunday morning, I don't blame you, that's

849
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:46,559
for sure. But Jesse, what else have you got for

850
00:42:46,639 --> 00:42:48,199
us before we let you head out? I know you

851
00:42:48,280 --> 00:42:49,360
got a busy night ahead of you.

852
00:42:50,159 --> 00:42:52,280
Speaker 4: Okay. I do have a play on the early game

853
00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:56,440
in London. I have currently have three plays in NFL tomorrow,

854
00:42:56,920 --> 00:43:00,599
and I'm looking up to add some more. I'm currently

855
00:43:00,679 --> 00:43:04,039
twenty one and four. You heard that right, twenty one

856
00:43:04,159 --> 00:43:08,119
and for that's eighty four percent with my NFL heading

857
00:43:08,159 --> 00:43:11,280
into Week five. That's for the entire season, including the

858
00:43:11,280 --> 00:43:15,559
preseason eighty four percent college. I do have a play

859
00:43:15,559 --> 00:43:18,599
on the Vandabama game. We've already discussed what I think

860
00:43:18,639 --> 00:43:21,199
about that game, so you might not have to purchase it.

861
00:43:21,280 --> 00:43:23,800
You've already heard what I have to say. I've got

862
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:25,679
a few other college games. I do have a play

863
00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:29,719
on the Tigers Mariners and it is not on the side,

864
00:43:30,000 --> 00:43:32,079
just so you know. So that's what I got going

865
00:43:32,119 --> 00:43:35,400
on weekend Warrior with me. Great value, great.

866
00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:38,480
Speaker 2: Value, absolutely, Jesse, thanks so much for joining us here

867
00:43:38,519 --> 00:43:40,360
on last call crush the books today.

868
00:43:41,159 --> 00:43:42,039
Speaker 4: Thank you for having me.

869
00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:45,519
Speaker 2: Thank you you guys. We're going to bring Kyle Anthony

870
00:43:45,599 --> 00:43:48,480
in next. He's gonna talk some UFC the games that

871
00:43:48,559 --> 00:43:50,760
you want to make sure you get your money in on.

872
00:43:50,800 --> 00:43:52,920
So if you got those UFC questions, make sure you

873
00:43:52,960 --> 00:43:56,199
do drop them in the chat. Let's bring in Kyle Anthony.

874
00:43:57,960 --> 00:44:01,199
Speaker 1: Hei doing Welcome to the show, doing good. It's a

875
00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:04,159
big day ahead for UFC. Listen, I know college football

876
00:44:04,239 --> 00:44:07,960
is taken center stage, but a great card for UFC

877
00:44:08,519 --> 00:44:10,840
tonight coming up at UFC three twenty. So I excited

878
00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:13,239
to break some things down and get some places tonight.

879
00:44:13,920 --> 00:44:16,760
Speaker 2: It's gonna be a great slate today. Like you said,

880
00:44:17,000 --> 00:44:21,159
UFC three twenty, we have the light heavyweight rematch here.

881
00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:23,039
What have you got for us in this one?

882
00:44:23,599 --> 00:44:26,159
Speaker 1: Yes, so we've got Maga medink a laugh, He's sitting

883
00:44:26,159 --> 00:44:29,360
around that minus two seventy to sixty mark and you've

884
00:44:29,360 --> 00:44:31,960
got Pereira comeback here at round that plus two twenty

885
00:44:32,039 --> 00:44:35,079
to thirty. Are seeings of movement there. But as you said,

886
00:44:35,079 --> 00:44:37,760
this is a rematch from their fight back in March,

887
00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:39,800
which was a fight where you know, it was a

888
00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:42,639
pickup price tag basically, and you did see, you know,

889
00:44:42,679 --> 00:44:44,800
ank Laff was able to move forward, he was able

890
00:44:44,800 --> 00:44:46,840
to keep Prera on that back foot, He was able

891
00:44:46,880 --> 00:44:49,599
to win in the boxing exchanges, nullify some of the

892
00:44:49,840 --> 00:44:53,159
kicking arsenal that Parreira does have, and when he needed to,

893
00:44:53,199 --> 00:44:54,599
you know, ank Lave was able to get him up

894
00:44:54,599 --> 00:44:57,880
against the fence, control time, win some minutes, bank some

895
00:44:58,000 --> 00:45:01,119
rounds and was able to you know, close almost judge scorecards,

896
00:45:01,119 --> 00:45:03,599
but was able to get the victory forty eight forty seven,

897
00:45:03,679 --> 00:45:06,599
forty eight, forty seven, forty nine, forty six on the

898
00:45:06,679 --> 00:45:08,320
judge of scorecard. Now, what are the things that I

899
00:45:08,880 --> 00:45:11,440
take away from that fight as I was watching it was,

900
00:45:11,719 --> 00:45:13,960
you know, Peor didn't look himself. Now, it could be

901
00:45:14,000 --> 00:45:16,280
that he's older, he's thirty eight years old. Now, that

902
00:45:16,320 --> 00:45:18,159
could be part of it, but you know, part of

903
00:45:18,199 --> 00:45:20,360
it being the fact that there were reports after that

904
00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:23,400
fight that Perera came into that fight with a broken hand.

905
00:45:23,400 --> 00:45:25,719
Now Joe Rogan confirmed it. He had said he talked

906
00:45:25,760 --> 00:45:28,079
to someone in the camp and he had a broken hand.

907
00:45:28,119 --> 00:45:30,360
Now it starts to make sense when you're looking at

908
00:45:30,400 --> 00:45:32,079
you know, this could be a tinfoil hat, you know,

909
00:45:32,159 --> 00:45:34,480
your type of thing. But you know, out of a

910
00:45:34,519 --> 00:45:37,639
five round fight, he landed eleven significant strikes to the head.

911
00:45:37,679 --> 00:45:40,000
That is, that's something that he's never done. He does

912
00:45:40,039 --> 00:45:42,519
that in around normally, and he was not really picking

913
00:45:42,599 --> 00:45:44,960
up the pace at any point. His activity was low.

914
00:45:45,079 --> 00:45:47,039
All he did was thow these leg kicks. And you know,

915
00:45:47,079 --> 00:45:49,400
Perera now was saying he was about forty percent going

916
00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:51,480
into that fight. You know, hey take that with a

917
00:45:51,480 --> 00:45:54,639
great assault, I guess. But coming into this fight here,

918
00:45:55,119 --> 00:45:57,800
you know, all things considered, you know, stylistically, one of

919
00:45:57,800 --> 00:46:00,039
the big things for the ankle live side is a

920
00:46:00,079 --> 00:46:01,480
lot of people looking at the wrestling. You know, he's

921
00:46:01,519 --> 00:46:03,039
going to be able to Hey, can you get Peerra down,

922
00:46:03,119 --> 00:46:05,280
can he get the control time? You know, can he

923
00:46:05,360 --> 00:46:08,320
get this fight to the matt And you know, going

924
00:46:08,360 --> 00:46:10,400
over his last fifteen fights in the UFC or his

925
00:46:10,400 --> 00:46:13,239
fifteen fights in the UFC, you know, you haven't really

926
00:46:13,280 --> 00:46:15,400
seen it be much of success. You know, I think

927
00:46:15,440 --> 00:46:18,480
it's wrestling is a little overrated. And you know, over

928
00:46:18,559 --> 00:46:21,440
his fifteen fights, he only has a twenty two percent

929
00:46:21,480 --> 00:46:24,599
takedown success rate, not very good against Perera. In that

930
00:46:24,679 --> 00:46:28,599
first fight, anka Lav was oz for twelve on takedown attempts,

931
00:46:28,599 --> 00:46:30,559
and yes, he was able to hold peer up against

932
00:46:30,599 --> 00:46:32,639
the fence, which again is something he's got to address

933
00:46:32,679 --> 00:46:35,719
coming into this rematch here. But out of those fifteen fights,

934
00:46:35,760 --> 00:46:39,440
per aank Lyilev only twice as he secured more than

935
00:46:39,480 --> 00:46:42,440
one takedown twice, and one of them was against jan

936
00:46:42,480 --> 00:46:45,039
Belhovich where he was two or ten on takedowns. The

937
00:46:45,119 --> 00:46:47,960
other one was Nikita Kryloff back in twenty twenty one,

938
00:46:48,039 --> 00:46:50,920
and Nikita is five and seven in the UFC, so

939
00:46:51,239 --> 00:46:53,840
not the greatest fighter overall. But I think this is

940
00:46:53,880 --> 00:46:57,159
the spot also where the vulnerability of ankh Lav is

941
00:46:57,199 --> 00:46:59,400
the light kicks. You know, the guy does not check them,

942
00:46:59,480 --> 00:47:01,360
he doesn't have to check them. We've seen it in

943
00:47:01,480 --> 00:47:04,719
multiple times, even in the Behovich fight where he's chopping

944
00:47:04,760 --> 00:47:07,280
at the leg and really, you know, Magomed kind of

945
00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:09,639
didn't really address it at all, and I think this

946
00:47:09,719 --> 00:47:12,280
is a spot here. Hopefully Pereira is in a one

947
00:47:12,360 --> 00:47:14,480
hundred percent at this point, but you know, the lay

948
00:47:14,519 --> 00:47:16,199
kicks are going to be there, the activity is going

949
00:47:16,280 --> 00:47:18,119
to be there. You know, the strength of schedule is

950
00:47:18,159 --> 00:47:21,079
far better for Pereira over his career, over his last

951
00:47:21,159 --> 00:47:23,719
nine fights, eight champions, you know. So I think this

952
00:47:23,760 --> 00:47:26,519
is a spot here where the market has really really moved,

953
00:47:27,000 --> 00:47:29,320
and I just think this is a great BILO spot

954
00:47:29,360 --> 00:47:32,039
here on Pereira. You're talking, you know, plus two twenty

955
00:47:32,079 --> 00:47:34,039
two twenty five, wherever it is. I think this is

956
00:47:34,079 --> 00:47:36,559
a great spot form. I think this should be much closer,

957
00:47:36,679 --> 00:47:38,119
but I'm taking the dog here, and I do think

958
00:47:38,159 --> 00:47:39,440
Perera gets a job done tonight.

959
00:47:39,880 --> 00:47:42,760
Speaker 2: Gotta love the dog at plus two twenty with Pereira there,

960
00:47:43,000 --> 00:47:45,199
How do you think he finishes this one? I don't

961
00:47:45,199 --> 00:47:48,000
see it going the distance in a light heavyweight match.

962
00:47:47,840 --> 00:47:51,360
Speaker 1: Do you Yeah? I mean I was more going towards

963
00:47:51,679 --> 00:47:55,280
possibly the knockout, if I had to pick, possibly the knockout.

964
00:47:55,559 --> 00:47:57,239
But the way that he fought in the last one

965
00:47:57,360 --> 00:47:59,679
was so it was not characteristic of him of how

966
00:47:59,679 --> 00:48:02,159
he would really fighting the low volume and if he

967
00:48:02,199 --> 00:48:04,360
takes that approach because he's a little bit worried about

968
00:48:04,400 --> 00:48:06,559
those takedowns, and if he needs to really kind of

969
00:48:06,599 --> 00:48:08,920
get away from that and have that low pace, it

970
00:48:09,000 --> 00:48:11,440
could get to the scorecards. But if I had to

971
00:48:11,480 --> 00:48:13,599
pick for him, I would say the knockout. But I

972
00:48:13,599 --> 00:48:16,199
think the money line is is pretty juicy enough right now.

973
00:48:16,599 --> 00:48:19,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, that money line great plus money up plus two twenty.

974
00:48:19,599 --> 00:48:22,920
You guys, what about the fight? And I'm gonna try

975
00:48:23,000 --> 00:48:26,519
not to butcher the names completely. Here we've got Joe

976
00:48:26,679 --> 00:48:32,280
the bodybag Cipher versus a bus meg O Matas.

977
00:48:32,360 --> 00:48:35,440
Speaker 5: I can't it's all right, it a hundred times.

978
00:48:35,639 --> 00:48:36,440
Speaker 4: I can't say.

979
00:48:37,840 --> 00:48:40,280
Speaker 1: Kelly gives me, you know, crap word all the time.

980
00:48:40,360 --> 00:48:43,519
So no, but yes, at this fight here, we've got

981
00:48:43,599 --> 00:48:46,599
Joe Piper, he's around minus two fifty. A Boos is

982
00:48:46,639 --> 00:48:49,159
around that plus two hundred mark here now A Boos

983
00:48:49,239 --> 00:48:51,639
is coming off a three fight win streak, which has

984
00:48:51,679 --> 00:48:55,480
looked good for him. He's went out there, he's beaten Warley, Alvis, Bruno, Perhera,

985
00:48:55,920 --> 00:48:58,360
Michelle Pereira, some nice wins for him there. But when

986
00:48:58,400 --> 00:49:01,639
you're looking at really like the actual process of those fights,

987
00:49:01,679 --> 00:49:04,039
I thought even in wins. He didn't look that good,

988
00:49:04,079 --> 00:49:05,760
you know, And I thought, you're looking at a guy

989
00:49:05,800 --> 00:49:08,159
against Whirley Alvis who's one in five out of his

990
00:49:08,239 --> 00:49:10,480
last six, and in that fight, you know, a bous

991
00:49:10,559 --> 00:49:15,119
was twenty twenty two strikes against alvas Is sixteen. I

992
00:49:15,159 --> 00:49:17,039
thought that really was not a good look. It really

993
00:49:17,079 --> 00:49:19,400
should have been a spot he should really smash on him.

994
00:49:19,480 --> 00:49:22,280
Six takedowns for him there. He needed the takedowns in

995
00:49:22,360 --> 00:49:24,760
order secure because he was not having the success on

996
00:49:24,800 --> 00:49:28,440
the feet. Even Bruno Phera the fight there, Bruno badly

997
00:49:28,519 --> 00:49:30,559
hurt him and then a Bus was able to get

998
00:49:30,559 --> 00:49:32,960
out of it by a takedown. The inexperience of Bruno

999
00:49:33,000 --> 00:49:35,159
and he was able to find that submission. And then

1000
00:49:35,199 --> 00:49:37,440
even the most recent fight, which was maybe one of

1001
00:49:37,480 --> 00:49:39,880
the worst fights I've seen, which was against Michelle Perera,

1002
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:42,239
which was a fight where you know, Perera and him,

1003
00:49:42,239 --> 00:49:44,920
it was like a glorified kickboxing match. No one really

1004
00:49:44,960 --> 00:49:47,079
went for it. It was pitter patter shots. It almost

1005
00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:49,599
kind of felt like Pereira was you know, he ended

1006
00:49:49,639 --> 00:49:52,320
up taking he bet a boose by decision the way

1007
00:49:52,320 --> 00:49:54,079
that he was kind of just staying away from it.

1008
00:49:54,119 --> 00:49:57,400
But the big red flags here on the Abous side

1009
00:49:57,599 --> 00:49:59,199
is the first woman to be the wrestling you know,

1010
00:49:59,199 --> 00:50:00,800
and I think this is some thing he's needed to

1011
00:50:00,880 --> 00:50:03,440
lay on, he's needed to utilize, he's needed to get

1012
00:50:03,440 --> 00:50:05,280
you know, when he's hurt, he's able to kind of

1013
00:50:05,320 --> 00:50:08,000
get out of that, get these takedowns. And when you

1014
00:50:08,079 --> 00:50:11,039
look at at Joe Pifer, you know, this guy has

1015
00:50:11,079 --> 00:50:13,880
the physicality advantage, he has the strength advantage, and he's

1016
00:50:13,880 --> 00:50:15,599
going to be the better wrestler. So I think he's

1017
00:50:15,599 --> 00:50:18,159
going to struggle with any type of you know, the

1018
00:50:18,199 --> 00:50:20,960
takedown attempts. I think that Pifer can kind of steer

1019
00:50:21,000 --> 00:50:23,159
clear of that. Even with Pifer hurts him, I don't

1020
00:50:23,159 --> 00:50:25,199
think a Boose is going to have that escape route

1021
00:50:25,280 --> 00:50:27,199
to get the takedown and to get out of that.

1022
00:50:27,280 --> 00:50:29,159
And the other part of it being is that who's

1023
00:50:29,199 --> 00:50:32,400
this terrible cardio. I mean, this guy out absolutely outside

1024
00:50:32,400 --> 00:50:35,440
of round one starts to slow down. He doesn't really

1025
00:50:35,639 --> 00:50:38,039
you know, push that pace at all. His volume is

1026
00:50:38,119 --> 00:50:41,280
always very very low. And even again the slow pace fights,

1027
00:50:41,480 --> 00:50:44,159
he is very very slow in that second round. And

1028
00:50:44,440 --> 00:50:46,719
that's something where I think he can't push the wrestling pace.

1029
00:50:46,880 --> 00:50:49,199
He doesn't have the Cardio to do that, he have to,

1030
00:50:49,519 --> 00:50:51,400
you know, try to stay at range and try to

1031
00:50:51,440 --> 00:50:54,119
slow the fight down for him. But overall, I think

1032
00:50:54,199 --> 00:50:57,400
Joe is definitely has all the advantages here, the wrestling,

1033
00:50:57,559 --> 00:51:01,480
the striking, the handspeed. He's definitely the harder hitter between

1034
00:51:01,480 --> 00:51:03,079
these two, and that's where I'm going with this play.

1035
00:51:03,400 --> 00:51:06,760
I do like Joe Pifer by knockout that city room

1036
00:51:07,159 --> 00:51:09,760
plus one thirty five roughly right now, and out of

1037
00:51:09,800 --> 00:51:13,559
his seven UFC fight wins, four of them are by knockout.

1038
00:51:13,599 --> 00:51:16,880
In his most recent fight against Kelvin Gaslom, he dropped

1039
00:51:16,920 --> 00:51:19,920
Kelvin twice if Kelvin didn't have the granted chin. Kelvin

1040
00:51:19,960 --> 00:51:22,440
has never been knocked out his professional career. So I

1041
00:51:22,480 --> 00:51:26,119
think if Joe lands anything like that in this fight here,

1042
00:51:26,320 --> 00:51:28,639
he's going to absolutely put a Boos away. So I

1043
00:51:28,679 --> 00:51:31,719
think that he's very hittable, negative striking differential, I think

1044
00:51:31,760 --> 00:51:34,880
everything kind of points here to Joe Pifer getting that knockout.

1045
00:51:34,960 --> 00:51:37,079
So getting off that minus two fifty number, I think

1046
00:51:37,119 --> 00:51:39,599
plus one thirty five is a solid spot for the knockout.

1047
00:51:39,880 --> 00:51:43,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, great, plus money that you're coming at us with today.

1048
00:51:43,320 --> 00:51:46,840
You gotta love anyone whose nickname is bodybag out there.

1049
00:51:47,519 --> 00:51:50,800
A quick couple quick questions in the chat here Alex

1050
00:51:50,840 --> 00:51:53,840
for his significant strikes to the over what do you

1051
00:51:53,960 --> 00:51:58,079
think about Alex coming out getting those strikes?

1052
00:51:58,159 --> 00:52:01,199
Speaker 1: Well, I definitely think that cam heir to the last fight.

1053
00:52:01,280 --> 00:52:02,880
To the point of what we were kind of just saying,

1054
00:52:02,920 --> 00:52:04,800
is that if he was injured or if there was

1055
00:52:04,840 --> 00:52:07,039
those things, I think it's going to be higher. And

1056
00:52:07,079 --> 00:52:09,920
again it now it also goes into if he does

1057
00:52:09,960 --> 00:52:12,360
get that knockout, this could be a little bit earlier

1058
00:52:12,400 --> 00:52:14,159
of the night. But I kind of lean more towards

1059
00:52:14,159 --> 00:52:16,320
this fite having some legs, getting a little bit further

1060
00:52:16,400 --> 00:52:18,760
into it. So I would lean the over here if

1061
00:52:18,800 --> 00:52:20,639
I had a gun to my head kind of thing.

1062
00:52:21,079 --> 00:52:24,519
Speaker 2: Okay, So a live shoey Kyle, are you doing shoeies

1063
00:52:24,559 --> 00:52:29,199
out there? It's too early for that, isn't it.

1064
00:52:29,199 --> 00:52:31,039
Speaker 1: It's a little too early that I have I have

1065
00:52:31,239 --> 00:52:34,679
bet a shoeye with some followers and stuff like that. Yes,

1066
00:52:34,719 --> 00:52:38,320
I've got that today. You know, maybe maybe we'll see.

1067
00:52:38,360 --> 00:52:39,920
We'll see if I post something like that later.

1068
00:52:40,559 --> 00:52:44,039
Speaker 2: Okay. And then there's a question on do you like Corey.

1069
00:52:44,599 --> 00:52:47,079
I feel he's the best striker in the division. A

1070
00:52:47,159 --> 00:52:48,840
lot of value on that line.

1071
00:52:49,440 --> 00:52:54,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know what, I actually like morab By decision here,

1072
00:52:54,079 --> 00:52:57,800
but anyone who was taking Corey at whatever plus three

1073
00:52:57,840 --> 00:53:00,719
point thirty is a good bet. I think it's still

1074
00:53:00,719 --> 00:53:03,880
there's a lot of value there. Corey presents a lot

1075
00:53:03,880 --> 00:53:07,000
of problems for Morob where you know, yes, Morob is

1076
00:53:07,000 --> 00:53:09,599
going to be able to have that pressure, have that cardio,

1077
00:53:09,880 --> 00:53:12,159
you know, have that wrestling, and look to positionally win.

1078
00:53:12,480 --> 00:53:15,280
You know, out of his thirteen fight win streak, he's

1079
00:53:15,320 --> 00:53:17,599
only had two finishes, So I kind of leaned towards

1080
00:53:17,679 --> 00:53:21,039
Morob getting that, getting that decision victory. But Corey is

1081
00:53:21,199 --> 00:53:24,119
the far better striker between these two. Morob has said

1082
00:53:24,119 --> 00:53:27,760
in interviews that he wants to have ninety percent striking here,

1083
00:53:27,840 --> 00:53:30,960
so you know, obviously what he's saying and what he

1084
00:53:31,039 --> 00:53:32,719
does in the cage are always two different things. But

1085
00:53:32,760 --> 00:53:35,760
the fact he's looking for that could give Corey opportunities.

1086
00:53:36,000 --> 00:53:38,400
Corey's got you know, jumping these, He's got a lot

1087
00:53:38,400 --> 00:53:41,039
of flashy stuff he does, and if Morob wants to

1088
00:53:41,039 --> 00:53:42,760
stand at range against the guy that's going to have

1089
00:53:42,840 --> 00:53:45,599
the reach height advantage with him, I think it's going

1090
00:53:45,679 --> 00:53:47,639
to be a lot closer than this is. You know,

1091
00:53:47,679 --> 00:53:50,760
this line indicates here, and I do lean more towards Brob,

1092
00:53:50,880 --> 00:53:54,039
But again, anyone taking Corey here, I don't blame him

1093
00:53:54,079 --> 00:53:54,559
on that price.

1094
00:53:55,039 --> 00:53:57,159
Speaker 2: If Corey was to win it, We've got a comment

1095
00:53:57,280 --> 00:53:59,719
in the chat here. Could he do it by submission?

1096
00:54:00,079 --> 00:54:02,000
Could you see it playing out that way? If Corey

1097
00:54:02,000 --> 00:54:02,480
gets a win.

1098
00:54:02,840 --> 00:54:05,000
Speaker 1: You know that that's because I kind of look at

1099
00:54:05,039 --> 00:54:07,360
it a little bit that you know, Morob is probably

1100
00:54:07,360 --> 00:54:10,000
the better minute winner in here, and then you've got

1101
00:54:10,039 --> 00:54:12,480
Corey who's probably going to be the better moment winner.

1102
00:54:12,599 --> 00:54:13,960
So I think that, you know, if there is going

1103
00:54:14,000 --> 00:54:15,480
to be something, you know, we've seen how many times

1104
00:54:15,519 --> 00:54:18,480
have we seen Rob you know, rocked Kurt, those kinds

1105
00:54:18,480 --> 00:54:20,880
of things. So Corey's a guy that he's very slick

1106
00:54:20,920 --> 00:54:23,320
with his grappling. If ma Rob does shoot takedowns, he's

1107
00:54:23,320 --> 00:54:25,320
got to watch his neck there. Pory will be very

1108
00:54:25,320 --> 00:54:29,039
opportunistic with those takedowns, I mean, with those submission attempts here.

1109
00:54:29,079 --> 00:54:32,159
So I do think if there was a finish, it

1110
00:54:32,199 --> 00:54:34,519
could be Corey inside the distance. But it's the same

1111
00:54:34,519 --> 00:54:37,199
thing we were just talking about about. Pereira you know,

1112
00:54:37,239 --> 00:54:39,360
when there's already enough plus money there, I don't need

1113
00:54:39,400 --> 00:54:42,360
to get too creative, but yeah I would. I could

1114
00:54:42,400 --> 00:54:44,599
see inside the distance if he does get the victory.

1115
00:54:44,960 --> 00:54:47,599
Speaker 2: Awesome. Now it's a loaded slay out there for UFC

1116
00:54:47,760 --> 00:54:50,159
three twenty today. What do you have up for sale

1117
00:54:50,159 --> 00:54:51,039
over at wager talk?

1118
00:54:51,880 --> 00:54:54,039
Speaker 1: Yeah? So I have a five percent max bet up

1119
00:54:54,079 --> 00:54:57,280
right now. I do have six plays in there. This

1120
00:54:57,360 --> 00:55:00,079
is the actually the most units I have deployed on

1121
00:55:00,079 --> 00:55:03,360
one event this year. I love a lot of spots here.

1122
00:55:03,400 --> 00:55:07,119
There's really good betting opportunities and we're gonna be locked

1123
00:55:07,119 --> 00:55:09,159
and loaded a lot of plus money that I am

1124
00:55:09,199 --> 00:55:11,599
betting in that package as well. So check it out

1125
00:55:11,639 --> 00:55:12,719
wager talk dot com.

1126
00:55:12,920 --> 00:55:14,840
Speaker 2: Gow do you have me at plus money?

1127
00:55:14,960 --> 00:55:15,280
Speaker 5: Kyle?

1128
00:55:15,400 --> 00:55:17,519
Speaker 2: I love that plus money. Lots of plus money to

1129
00:55:17,559 --> 00:55:20,800
be made in the USC. Absolutely crushed the books today.

1130
00:55:20,840 --> 00:55:22,320
Thanks for joining us here on last call.

1131
00:55:22,920 --> 00:55:25,440
Speaker 1: All right, thanks Joe, Okay.

1132
00:55:25,079 --> 00:55:27,880
Speaker 2: You guys. That wraps up the show. Make sure you

1133
00:55:27,920 --> 00:55:31,800
do tune in for a last Call tomorrow. Ariel Epstein

1134
00:55:31,920 --> 00:55:35,000
will be bringing in a Gianni the Greek, John Murray

1135
00:55:35,039 --> 00:55:39,079
and Joe Ranieri to go over all of your NFL

1136
00:55:39,239 --> 00:55:41,320
plays that you have to get on. Remember I will

1137
00:55:41,360 --> 00:55:44,960
be live a Monday night at seven pm Eastern for

1138
00:55:45,039 --> 00:55:48,480
that primetime preview as well as Thursday for your primetime

1139
00:55:48,559 --> 00:55:52,000
preview as well. And then Kelly is back next Saturday,

1140
00:55:52,079 --> 00:55:54,159
so no stress you guys, she will be back in

1141
00:55:54,159 --> 00:55:57,320
the regular time slot here on Last Call on Saturday.

1142
00:55:57,480 --> 00:55:59,760
You guys all the best in all your bets, stay

1143
00:55:59,800 --> 00:56:03,480
high and let's make some frickin' money.