Speaker 1: All right, everyone, Happy New Year.
Speaker 2: It's Thursday, but it's also the first day of twenty
twenty six. Rob Vino has the day off and in
his place my good pal Freddie Mills. Freddy, Happy New Year.
Did you did you getting any fun last night on
New Year's Eve?
Speaker 3: Happy New Year, Adam.
Speaker 4: Yeah, a little bang up this morning. Kind of had
a neighborhood get together last night. Some fireworks, so a
little bit of a later night than I hoped, but
you know, spend it with some good people and whatnot.
Speaker 3: So no complaints.
Speaker 1: That's that's great to hear you.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was good. We kept it low key. We
have had in the in the Syracuse area, the area
I live in, we have had the most snow in
the month of December since nineteen ninety three, so like
literal record snowfall. Going anywhere has been a challenge. I
was actually supposed to go visit I was actually supposed
to be at the Tarleton State Game tonight visiting some
friends and family in Texas. I've had to push that off,
although I may be still shooting for this weekend, so
we'll see. But yeah, other than that, can't complain. We
had a great slate of New Year's Eve hoops yesterday,
and they've left us with a couple of games today
most of the mid major conferences. But Freddie, that's like,
you know me, like these are the leagues that I
almost kind of prefer to talk about. So picking a
feature game was I guess a little bit difficult, But
to me, the Missouri Valley has been a great league
for a long time, and we've got a couple of
good Valley games tonight, I think the biggest being Bradley
heading down to Nashville to take on Belmont. So I'll
kick it over to you to start this one off
for our feature game. Bradley Belmont. How are you seeing
this one?
Speaker 3: Yeah, just pulling up some of myself.
Speaker 4: I think Bradley her Belmont Storry is off an OT
loss to Indiana State, So you know, you kind of
see how those teams react to that. And I guess
even today, like a common theme I guess for me
or thinking point is like you have like the New
Year's Day some early tips, I guess which teams are
most disciplined and getting a full night's rest, and you
never kind of know kind of how that stuff plays
at any game with Belmont I think brings a high
degree of variance with their obviously the perimeter attack you know,
well known for their motion offense, creating these hot quality threes.
Speaker 3: Bradley I think washing them this year.
Speaker 4: Their strength they are defenses on the ball with Johnson,
Ja Kwan Johnson, I think Jake one is the first
name I think really good kind of at the point
of attack. You know, I do think Belmont has the
ability to kind of work I guess, to the weaknesses
if you will, of the Bradley defense, which is off
the ball and kind of on the perimeter. As their offense,
as I mentioned, is more kind of about these off
the ball screens, off all cutting these types of things.
Speaker 3: And if you look.
Speaker 4: At you know, how Bradley's bigs in particular have defended
some of these, you know, inside out actions, pick and
pop actions. You know, hoop Explorer is a great I
guess like that you can use to kind of look
at how teams defend different sets. I believe, you know,
just pulling up now, Bradley is in the ten percent
against inside out actions and that's what Belmont's offense is
all about.
Speaker 3: You know, I think this number has come down. You
you probably correct me on that.
Speaker 4: I think it was like seven maybe five ish now,
something which you know makes sense as you know you have.
Speaker 3: A competitive rivalry here.
Speaker 4: I think since these teams have been in the same conference,
I want to say Belmont has a three two edge.
You know, I played some good games in the last
few years, but for me, I suppose I didn't really
see an edge in the number. I do feel like
Belmont potentially, if you know the perimeter team is working,
can expose Brett or sorry, yeah, Bradley's perimeter defense, but
not enough to maybe better myself.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: So just something that I think going into the new year,
you know, as I spent the four days over sort
of the Christmas lull where we didn't have any games,
you know, trying to trying to figure out, like what
went wrong for me the first two months of the season.
Just did you know I've been beating numbers, Freddy, But
like it's almost like that, you know, the good CLV
is not translated into wins for me.
Speaker 1: At least, I think.
Speaker 2: I think it speaks to the high level of just
randomness that that is now in college basketball, opposed to
like what this used to be ten fifteen years ago. Yeah,
the reason I bring that up is because, like going
into the new year, I'm really I reviewed all of
my my sort of notes records, and what ill what
I will do is I basically keep track of anything
that that qualifies from like a numerical move for or
like a numbers perspective.
Speaker 1: That doesn't mean I'm betting.
Speaker 2: I mean, if I were to bet every sort of
number edge that I showed, my volume would be out
of control. I'd probably be just totally eaten alive on juice.
With that being said, you know, you you talked about
not really having a a number or an edge on
the number here for the side, Like I'm kind of
throwing games out because of that now. So like for
this one, you know, I came in pretty much at six.
Now I didn't see I saw this one open a
couple of different different a couple of different places. I
couldn't really like find like the true opener for this one,
But it does feel like the six and a half
to five and a half range?
Speaker 1: Am I right on that? Would you call that the
opener for this game?
Speaker 3: Yeah? I think that's what I saw.
Speaker 4: I thought I saw seven, But like my projection is
again I've had my share of struggles this year seventy
nine new two Belmont, so I was kind of right
on the.
Speaker 3: I guess initial number.
Speaker 4: And as I mentioned, like with Bellmont, they're a great
perimeter shooting team that they do play compact as well,
so they're kind of a team that shoots a lot
of threes, allows a lot of three. So that after
me kind of as you know, from game to game,
you never kind of know where you're gonna fall with
the regression type stuff. And Bradley, as I mentioned, you
know their defense is going to give some stuff up.
I think because they're their bigs, are going to struggle
a little bit more in space. But on the other end,
I think Johnson that I mentioned and some of their
other kind of quicker guards can certainly get into their
like drive and kick action that they're I guess offense
revolved around because Bellmont's defense will kind of play in
the gaps and allow the you know, just try and
play compact, protect the rim, and live with kind of
that perimeter shooting against. So that's why I kind of
am less inclined to trust any projection when I had
when I think there's gonna be a lot of three
point shooting just because it's the hardest thing to predict
them game to game.
Speaker 2: No, absolutely, And that's where you know, I kind of
I guess, you know, straight from the point I was
trying to make. But like I guess where I'm at
now is if I'm not seeing a numerical edge one
way or another, like it's going to have to really
be something that I either had very much circled or
like there's such a stylistic like matchup. I almost think
those are getting overpriced into the number these days where
because teams, and I'll go back to my original point,
because teams are so new, and it's like you have
these coaches who all these coaches seem very very frustrated,
like in my opinion, with it's like they want to
play a certain way and they like it, just they
they don't have players long enough to play the way
they want to play. So like for me, I'm more
like trying to just find the bigger the bigger number
edges and then I'm looking for a good spot for
the team that I'm trying to back in this game.
I didn't really get either of those, and I will
go back to the beginning of the year. You know,
Bradley's a team that I do still kind of have
as one of the teams that I think might be
undervalued right now just in general. It doesn't really help
me as much here, but this is a team that
I thought could have won this league coming into the year.
They have, you know, the loss to Tennessee Martin early
in the year that's obviously a bad loss, didn't play
well against Saint Bonaventure, you know.
Speaker 1: They've looked really good of late.
Speaker 2: And I think the final point I'll make on just
in general, on this game before we move on to
the next to the next game, is that the conference
play really represents a reset of sorts, and I think
you do have to go revisit some of your like
preseason sort of outlook on a team because the slate
is white, clean. Loyol in Chicago yesterday, a great example,
comes out and plays great in their A ten.
Speaker 1: Opener after a horrible non conference slate.
Speaker 2: So again, those are just kind of some things that
this game made me think of, but no real bet
here for me.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think Bradley's biggest edge, you know, if you
were to break it down, looks to be like Shafa
and potentially like they're a very good turnover net turnover team,
protect the ball well, create a lot of turnovers. That
can be an issue, you know, metrically, at least for
Bellmont and your reference. You know, sometimes you have to
dig deeper the U team Martin Loss, I remember that game.
I think Bradley went something like two for twenty from three. So,
you know, when you get those type of shooting performances
which are impossible to predict, it's really tough to.
Speaker 3: Win a game. So yeah, I'm kind of with you.
Speaker 4: I think they can kind of re establish themselves now
in the in conference play, and that's always a great conference,
a lot of good teams, fun to watch.
Speaker 2: So yeah, tremendous league it has been for a long time.
And again two really good teams couldn't couldn't find a
real way in there. But I felt like that game,
being as it's late, a little bit later in the day,
and the fact that those two teams could very well
be battling it out at the top of that league
this year, deserved some tension. The A kid says is
the chat broken could be your chat? Your comment came
through on YouTube. I did notice, like the chat is
usually far more lively at this point, and I did
notice that the chat comments are not coming through. So
to answer your question, your comment came through fine. Billy
Humphrey says, Happy New Year everyone, conference play today. Yep, absolutely,
Happy New Year to everyone out there. So some of
the comments are coming through on the chat, but yeah,
it's definitely not the ones that that we use.
Speaker 1: That not as many as we usually get.
Speaker 2: So I don't know where this is broken, but if
you're seeing this, I believe we are. We're running on
Twitter right now and it looks like the YouTube chat
is working. So if you want to get a comment in,
if you want us to see it, maybe head on
over to the YouTube live stream because those are the
ones that looks like they're coming through.
Speaker 1: Or what you can also do is just.
Speaker 2: Tweet at us, tweet tweet in the live stream and
we'll see it there as well. All right, all right, Freddy,
I want to move on to this game. Uh, I
was hope, So again I am going to get down
to I am going to get down to see my
buddy Kyle in Texas. At some point this year, we
had tentatively planned for this week and for this game,
and like I was telling you, the the snow did
not cooperate. I mean, we have gotten absolutely pummeled here
all week. Uh there was not a single snowflake on
the ground on Christmas, a you know, not the opposite
of a white Christmas. And we have gotten absolutely pummeled
since then. So no trip to me for Texas today.
The game I would have been going.
Speaker 1: To sadly looks to looks like it's gonna be a
great game.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 2: Utah Valley took care of business earlier this week against
cal Baptist. Tarleton took care of business on the road
against ut Arlington. Freddie, I am so excited to watch
Whack basketball this year, the last chance will get to
watch it. It's only a seven team league, but like
five of these teams are really good, and some of
them are gonna play, yeah, like some of them are
gonna play three times. I actually think Utah Valley Tarleton
might be one of the ones that you see three
three meetings of this year. I know that there's I
think most of them. Actually, because it's a seven team league,
I think you're gonna get a six.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's six teams playing three times.
Speaker 2: I think you have an eighteen game league schedule, so
I think most of these teams will play three times.
That's certainly a unique setup when it comes to conference play.
And this this should be a great game. Brand new
arena down there for Tarleton. This is eight pm and Stevenville,
Utah State or I'm sorry, Utah Valley, Tarleton, what are
you see in here?
Speaker 4: Yeah, my projection was just looking at it here, so
apologize them. Sometimes clients into the sad seventy four seventy
one Utah Valley. So I almost bet the under before
I went out celebrating last night, and looks like the
market kind of agreed.
Speaker 3: I guess why I didn't was potential.
Speaker 4: You know, Tarleton to me, anytime you watch a game,
the the whistle is very key with their pressure defense
they have. You know, their offensive style is all about
getting downhill and getting to the line, and their pressure
defense is very susceptible to getting other teams in the
bonus very quickly. So it's never fun to kind of
seeing under kind of bleed out to the kind of
you know, both teams in the bonus early. So that's
kind of why I stayed away. The other thing that's
frustrated me with Tarlton, I guess is just trying to
figure out their their personnel from game to game. I
know there's sometimes they pop up and de Or Johnson
is nowhere to be seen. And obviously over the years,
like Freddie Hicks, and obviously now with conference play, you
would assume you know whoever's healthy is going. But they're
kind of a tricky team, the kind of handicap pre
flop just because you never really know and the covered
on the team can be you know, hit or miss.
I guess when I look at this, when I feel
like Utah Valley's biggest kind of two keys will be
can they protect the ball? If you just look at
the raw metrics, I think they're in the bottom fifty
nationally and offensive turnover eight, which is, you know, not
something you want to see as you hit the road
against a defense that throws there. And the other thing
is kend of make the free throws, which has been
an issue.
Speaker 3: For them as well.
Speaker 4: I was on Utah Valley a couple of days ago.
I think got minus six, end up winning by seven,
but there was you know, that last minute was not
nice to watch. I think they're only like sixty six
sixty five percent from free throw line, and that will
have to be like a key for them today because
they're likely going to get to the line. With how
Tarlton extends their defense and plays in the gaps and
these types of things. My biggest kind of worry for
I guess Tarleton is this game is very likely to
be played toward the rim.
Speaker 3: You know, both offenses.
Speaker 4: Utah Valley is a very dominant front court, likes to
play through their bigs and Tarleton, as I mentioned, kind
of gets downhill. And if you look at the net
two point percentages of these teams, I believe Utah Valley
is one of the best in the country at plus ten,
so basically just subtracting offensive two point shooting percentage from
their defensive two point shooting percent defense, whereas Tarleton is
minus seven. So you know, that would be something that
points toward the Utah Valley side. I believe it's the
you know, kind of a tricky, tricky game because like
I said, the whistle is very key in Tarleton games.
I do think Tarleton is a team that is better
than maybe some of the metrics their team I'd.
Speaker 3: Like to play on.
Speaker 4: I just maybe didn't love this matchup, and off I
kind of leaned their way. I guess my number was three.
I think in the amrket I think it's four four
and a half. But you know, I think as of now,
I'll pass, I'll kind of see how the market goes.
So that's kind of how I see it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I probably am.
Speaker 2: I probably get as good at info as possible, like
if anyone with Tarlton, because again I I, you know,
have some some pals down there that are close to
the program and and that are you know, very tuned in,
and it's a team I follow closely. Even I have
been uh surprised at times with you know, there was
there was stuff that like like I've been surprised with
guys missing.
Speaker 1: Uh you know there was a game.
Speaker 2: Where Jor Johnson played and then just played one minute
and didn't play the rest of the game.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 2: Freddie, the fact that he's coming off the bench but
yet he averages twenty one points per game is is certainly.
Speaker 1: Odd in my opinion.
Speaker 3: It's a choice.
Speaker 2: You know, this was a team that did not expect
to have Freddie Hicks. He kind of like backdoored his
way into an extra year. Of eligibility via the same
rule that Tyon Grant Foster used to get an extra.
Speaker 1: Year of eligibility.
Speaker 2: So like like where they were rated coming into the season,
to then just like magically get Freddie Hicks, who's probably
the highest usage player on the team and has been
for a couple of years, is massive. All of that
makes me really like this team. Like the other thing too,
is they did have so they had some injury, but Freddie,
like they had a stretch in December where they had
guys banged up, and they also played a series of
like non D one games and then like a couple
of teams like Mississippi Valley State is a walkthrough Florida
A and M like these these teams that were like
not going to really challenge them. And so I do
know that guys were healthy and just kind of not
playing for a stretch. So as far as I know,
like unless something happened in the Arlington game that I
don't know about, the health should not be an issue
with this team right now. And what that means is,
you know, Chris and Paka missed a couple of games.
He is going to be massive for them in this
matchup because the one thing you have to have to
compete with Utah at is you've got to be able
to combat their size, like Utah Valley for that league
has you know, their their size is superior. Calpapt just
really struggled with that on you know, on Monday, and
I think that's probably part of the reason. If you
were on Utah Valley in that game, you had to
think they're going to keep Don Daniels and they're going
to keep Martell away from the rim, and that's kind
of what happened.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and for me for me, and that one was
more so like I think Daniels is good enough to
get to his spot, but you then finishing over size
is you know, the extra challenge there where you know,
the game they're playing today, I think they're against Arlington,
they're much likely to face less size and Daniels and
Williamson feel a bit more comfortable against the drop coverage
versus you know, the monsters they signed. The paint there
just makes a challenging for efficiency. So yeah, front court
for them a great two way rebounding team and play
for their big So it kind of puts other teams
in a bond whether they need to help and you
know how they're how they're going to.
Speaker 3: Match up on the block.
Speaker 2: So and Paca is you know, I think he's the
key here because again the size thing, but also he
really hasn't returned to his normal minutes yet. So like
since he's been back, it's been ten to fifteen minutes
a game. I mean that's a guy. You know, against Rice,
he played pretty much the whole game twenty two points.
Had twenty four against Merrimac. Like when he's when he
is right, like he's going to be out there the
majority of the game. No, they have depth, but their
depth is more in my opinion, at the guard position,
guys like Cam McDowell, Dior, you know, Freddie Hicks is
kind of a combo type guy. It's just all it's
gonna be all about can they keep Utah Valley out
of the paint. If they can't, Utah Vley's gonna score
at will. And can they I think they can get
you know, get some. I don't hate the way they
set up in terms of will probably slow the game down.
Freddy probably draws fouls as good as anyone in the country.
He's so good at getting to the free throw line.
Speaker 1: Numbers right in this one too.
Speaker 2: In my opinion, I feel like if you were going
to target this game, you'd probably be looking more toward
the under maybe or the total. I felt like four
was pretty fair for this one. Should be a great game.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm right in line with it.
Speaker 4: Had a sleek, slight sort of it, like I guess
lineage toward Tyleton.
Speaker 3: But yeah, again, nothing I felt comfortable in not playing.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the one thing about the new arena and when
I get there, whether it be Saturday or not, I'm
still trying to move my schedule around. But you know,
they moved into a brand new, beautiful arena. I can't
wait to see it. It's the same architect built it
as Foster Pavilion. It's almost a clone of Foster Pavilion.
But as you know, Foster Pavilion, seventy five hundred and
eight thousand kids at Baylor is very small comparative to
Wisdom Gym. It's a large step up in you know,
I think you could get three thousand at Wisdom Gym.
Speaker 1: No students there.
Speaker 2: I'll be interested to see if they have much of
an atmosphere for this game.
Speaker 1: New Year's Night.
Speaker 2: So again that that home core edge that I've always
kind of had built into Charleton, who's been very good
at home and when the kids are there like that's
I mean, they've they have filled that that small gym before.
I'm interested to see if they still have the same
edge in this building. So again, all all talking points,
I don't you know, We're just trying to give out
info that that's what That's what Rob and I do
on this show, trying to give you like six or
seven games you know where we've got some information for
you to make the best choice possible. And and Freddie
will be joining me for the parlay today, so stay tuned.
Speaker 1: We've got the parlay of the day. Rob will be
back tomorrow.
Speaker 2: If you want the stuff from Rob, check out wager
Talk wager Talk dot com, check out Rob's page. And
Rob and I still have that great combo package three
day all access where you can get us Thursday, Friday, Saturday.
You can use it now anytime during the week. All right, Freddie,
we have a donation from Garth. Uh so we're gonna check.
Speaker 1: This game out.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 2: He's his thoughts on calp Holly. You see San Diego?
He leans you see San Diego. To cover the eight
and a half, and I kind of joked about this
earlier in the week. There's about there's like five teams
that I've almost pulled out of my of trying to
do anything with because, like you know, going back to
the point I made about trying to to really like
trust my numbers, I had to weed out a couple
of teams that are that are when I considered to
be major outliers. Loyola Chicago is one of them. For
for a bad and on the bad end of the spectrum.
You see San Diego as one on the good end
of the spectrum. With Eric Owen heading to New Mexico,
I did not expect this team to be, as the
kids say, a wagon at this point in the year,
but that's exactly what they've been. So Garth I, you know,
I kind of lean you see San Diego just from
the respect that, like, you know, with the way cal
Polly plays to play, to play an offense that's as
efficient as they are, I think could be tough. But
I don't trust my rating right now on you see
San Diego. So that's my that's my problem. Freddie talk
to me.
Speaker 1: You know. It taught me in or out of the
Tritons here.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I believe they were coming off D one loss
to San Diego. I want to say, so you probably
you know when you're looking at different angles, I guess
this time of year, whether it's the bounced back angle
or you know, just pure motivation. There's certainly been a.
Speaker 3: Pleasant surprise to me too.
Speaker 4: I did figure they'd take a step back from the
tournament team, just given some of the personnel changes and whatnot.
But I've been very impressive obviously in the in the
non com some nice wins that beat the team I
mentioned earlier. Bradley, you know, a great shooting team can
spread the floor five while with guys who can kind
of rip the three moved the ball very well. I
had this one as I'm looking down ninety one eighty Polly,
So I guess or sorry, you see San Diego, So
I guess I would certainly lean covering the and a half.
I have it closer to ten and a half eleven. Again,
nothing I played yet probably has certainly been a very
scrappy team, even going back to last year.
Speaker 3: Covering games as underdogs, you.
Speaker 4: Can expect pace here, so that kind of brings, you know,
a little bit more unpredictability into it. I believe probably
is still a top ten pace team and a team
that also again seems to be a common team today,
like a top twenty three point attempt rate, So you know,
where do the where does the perimeter shooting kind of
fall today? Will will be key in this game. I
think getting up and down both teams will certainly.
Speaker 3: Score the ball.
Speaker 4: But there was nothing I guess actionable for me to
play a bet on it. But I would think you see,
San Diego is certainly eager to maybe erase the bad
taste of the loss of San Diego.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that that was a kind of a weird game
against San Diego. That San Diego team is really just
like I can't First of all, if you want to
talk about teams, I can't stand.
Speaker 1: They're very much on the list.
Speaker 2: And the reason is that they've they've brought well, one,
they've burned me a couple of times. But two, they
play like they just play like one on one. It's
really ugly. But the problem is they have a couple
of guys that can really fill it up.
Speaker 1: Ty Lord.
Speaker 2: The kid that came over from I want to say,
wake Forest, and maybe he started his career. There, They've
got a couple of guys that can can really kind
of cook one on one, and San Diego just kind
of fell into the trap almost for them, in my opinion,
to to sort of lose that game. Not only were
they do but they also, like Lavin's kind of playing
like a very weird like zone. It's a again that
San Diego team. If you watch san Diego play, you're like,
this team's awful. I mean, they're they're there. I think
I've seen them on multiple occasions Freddy where they went
seven minutes without scoring a point this season because they
take bad shots. They take hard, like really tough shots,
the shots selections not that good. But then they can
come out and if they're having good one on one games,
they can beat a team like San Diego. Yeah, cal Polly,
in my opinion, much more like a team oriented approach.
But also I think U see san Diego their style
is going to play here, and I just don't know that.
I don't know that cal Poly's going to be able
to string stops together with you.
Speaker 1: It would have to be San Diego.
Speaker 4: I just wanted to kind of back up what I
was suggesting at the top of my head anyway that
this would be a high three point at ten rate.
Both teams, I guess defensive structures certainly will allow that
both are two hundred and nine to fifth or below
an opponent three points attempt rate, So the three ball.
Speaker 3: Should be flying here.
Speaker 4: One thing I guess I also wanted to look is
kind of how Polly.
Speaker 3: A grades out off the dribble.
Speaker 4: This has been certain weakness for to kind of just
look at the metrics of the UC San Diego team.
Speaker 3: They have a lot of guys, like.
Speaker 4: I said of con stretch of they do struggle in
space defending. They're below the thirtieth percentile and off the
dribble defense, and Polly basically runs their offense around the
above the eighty fifth percentile and attacking off the dribble.
So I do feel like both teams, as the total suggests,
will score the ball probably comes down to who is
a little bit more efficient from behind the air to
determine the cover.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, like, you know, kind of makes sense
to like points here, but the books are doing you
no favors one seventy on the total, so you know,
maybe maybe one, you know, maybe the best thing to
do there if you if you if you like points,
see if you get a lull early, and maybe try
to try to play in game, because I am there
will be points in this game at some point.
Speaker 1: Can pretty much guarantee that.
Speaker 2: Yep, I think so all right, I see the chat
this is I love when this happens. So we I
always compliment the chat Freddy we have we have sort
of like generated a show where the people in the
chat really no ball, and so I like to like
kind of watch what they're talking about. And I respect
the opinion of pretty much everyone that shows up on
a regular basis, and so I love to talk about
games where there seems to be a disagreement in the chat,
right where you've got a.
Speaker 1: Couple of guys on one side a couple on the other.
Speaker 2: And this particular game does not surprise me at all
that that would be the case. Cal Baptist UT Arlington.
I can totally see where you could make a case
for both sides. I'll go back to what I said
about cal Baptist a couple of minutes ago when we
were talking about ut we were talking about the Utah
Valley game. That was not a good matchup for in
my opinion for Daniels and for Martel Williams to sort
of like get to the rim and create offense. And
I think that's what cal Baptist needs to do, Like
that is their path to like offensive success. Now, calbat
is a very good defensive team. Arlington's not the same
kind of offense as Utah Valley. So I'll go to
you because I'm kind of torn on this one too.
I feel like I can kind of make a case
for both sides here. I also kind of think that
this could be a slot, so you know, maybe maybe
an under But interested to see your take on ug
Arlington Baptist.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Arlington is the team that I guess right now
I'm looking to play against a little bit washed them
a little bit recently. You know, do have some nice wins.
I think they have three or four true road wins,
which is, you know, not easy to do in the
non com You know, a couple of things jump out
to me when I kind of look at whether it's
the campom page or you know, just trying to read
about them pop ten and offensive turnover rate, so that's.
Speaker 3: You know, a red flag to me.
Speaker 4: And then you look at the three point defense. I
believe there there's still one of the tough five defenses
in the country, holding opponents around twenty five percent from
three credibly challenging to continue to do that over full
course of the season. Not quite sure Baptist is the
type of offense that might bring that regression, because they're
definitely more of a rim offense with Daniels and Williams attacking.
But you know, it's a reason why I have some
interest in Baptists here. I see the numbers two and
a half. I don't think I would maybe be interested
in that, but it might be a spot that I'd
try and jump in live, like at a money line.
I guess when I look at both structures here, Rick
Roy is very similar to what Saint Mary's plays drop
coverage and Arlington's. You know, off the dribble metrics aren't
aren't fantastic. I believe they're below the tenth percentile and
offensive efficiency off the dribbles. What that defense will give
you each you know, you look on the other side
with Daniels, as I mentioned earlier, I think this profiles
is a much more friendly of your matchup.
Speaker 3: I think they go from kind of.
Speaker 4: Utah Valley's top thirty in height to I think Arlington
is generally I looked earlier like two eighty or something
like that. So again going back to the point about
finishing oversize on these pull up jumpers floaters, if you will,
I think it just profiles as a better matchup for him.
Speaker 3: I never really know.
Speaker 4: I guess Turner, the Arlington coach, does like to mix
in some zone two, which I think might be a
way to go. And I don't know kind of what
his game plan is, which is to my point about
maybe one to watch this one a little bit to
see how to flow the game goes.
Speaker 3: But on the surface, I like Baptists.
Speaker 4: You know, they're a good two way rebounding team, which
I think takes away a strength of ut Arlington. And
then the two you know red flags for me, the
high offensive turnover rate in a game that figures to
be decided in the margins, and the you know, the
regression that I think is going to happen at some
point with that twenty four three point shooting defense. And
I just had Baptist rated higher personally.
Speaker 1: So yeah, I.
Speaker 3: Haven't played it yet, but it's gonna be one.
Speaker 4: I think I have a close eye on today, I'd
like to kind of maybe get my get some access
to that game, not a two and a half. I
just feel like it's it could be, like you said,
a very defensive minded game. So I'd rather just have
a money line of sorts and don't really want to
pay the juice that is that there now.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I kind of said maybe an under, but I
where that total is. I don't think you're getting much
value there. I think the I think the books pretty
much know that both of these teams can defend. You know,
they did the the three the three hundred and thirty
eighth rate national three point rate for Arlington is glaring.
You know, neither team plays super fast, like you know,
Dan Daniels is going to get the ball, He's going
to patrol a little bit. He's totally fine like running
twenty twenty five seconds off the shot clock and trying
to take someone off the dribbles. So again, I guess
I would not really or anyone toward the total at
that number, Like like my number here is is pick
like pretty much on the nose, which I guess would
suggest value at the current number of plus two and
a half with Arlington, But I share a lot of
the same sentiments you do, where it's like I've watched
this Arlington team play a bit that the turnovers are
are are probably the most glaring thing for me. And
you know, Baptists, they they can defend like they get
up in your shorts. Defensively, They've got like, you know,
good those guards are really good at both ends of
the floor, Daniel. They're just scrappy like that. This Baptist
team is scrappy. And that's that's right here, Freddie. Is
is why I'm so interested in watching this this league
in particular this year, because like this is a great
uh stop like matchup right here. Valley versus Tarleton is
like a really like, you know, tough nut to crack
if you will. And these teams are gonna all probably
play three times, could be four times once you get
to the Whack tournament, so I'll likely be watching this one.
But I'm kind of with you my gut, which is
harder to put a number two. My gut says back
just bounces back from the loss and takes.
Speaker 4: Time for me when you get into these pickum type games.
Because the line suggests I think it opened a pick
and maybe a Baptists taking a little money. It's the
margins that I guess you try and project to potentially
could create more shots. And again it comes back to
the high offensive turnover rate for Arlington and you know
nice two way rebounding that I believe looking at it
here now, Baptist is plus fifteen per one hundred possessions
in rebound rates, so that should probably.
Speaker 3: Project to three four more field goal attempts.
Speaker 4: You know, the drop covers does a little bit better
job on there, and that preventing free throws, whereas Arlington
has been a little bit rechhappy and a high free
throw rate against. So these are all kinds of things
that you know, make me lean toward Baptists bouncing back
off Utah Valley loss. But again, my number is only two,
so not enough to bet it now, but it will
be one that I want to watch early to see
if but perhaps I can get some access to it.
Speaker 2: And Steve dukay, yeah, listen, don't take bad numbers. I
think if you know he says, watch Baptist win by one, sure,
just money line it, I would I would not advise
laying the two and a half when you could have
had picked.
Speaker 1: I would just play a little smaller and bet the money.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 4: My my strategy for that sometimes is to just bet
a flat unit. Obviously, if it's like minus one forty
or something, I guess that would be the.
Speaker 3: Kind of how it would be lined.
Speaker 4: If it's two and a half, instead of laying one forty,
I'd just play one unit and accept winning less or
at least just.
Speaker 3: Losing a unit.
Speaker 4: And that way, you know, if you don't want to
bother with the watching it live, or you can't watch
it live, or you can't bet live, then at least
you have the side you want, just accept winning.
Speaker 3: A little bit less.
Speaker 1: I suppose, all right, you know what you know?
Speaker 2: Oh, I know folks are are still in bed and
probably gonna probably be watching this game or watching this
this show on demand is almost always the chat is
clamoring for the early tip, the early game, and I
haven't seen much of it, but I know people are
probably gonna probably gonna roll in twelve o'clock looking for
some of the one o'clock tips. So dealer's choice to you, Freddy,
there is there are three line four line games that
tip off at one pm Eastern today, your choice. Pick
one of them, and let's talk about that one.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Sanford VMI is one of those.
Speaker 1: Yes, but yeah Sandford VM.
Speaker 2: I on one cam down down at VM I.
Speaker 4: I see this one has moved a bit. But I
did bet Sandford minus four and a half. I think
minus one fifteen a couple hours back. I guess a
few reasons for me. I look at Sanford's rating right now,
I believe I look this morning, I think they're two
hundred and forty first at CAMPOM and I felt like
that's that's now sixty point dropped from where they were
at the start of the year. Personally, I feel like
it's their role point, Like I have them being able
now to maybe get back to the two hundred is strange.
So I guess based on my assessment of the team
and the where they are in the A market, I
felt like this was kind of buying the basement value price.
Then when I look at schematics here, Sanford's new coach,
I believe came from Liftscomb Leney Accruff and runs the
same type of offense, high post motion. If you look at
you know, if you if you haven't watched them play,
if you just look at their metrics on Hoop Explorer,
it's a very high inside out rate of offense flowing
through the high post looking to free up shooters on
the perimeter. Then if you look at how VMI has
guarded that they're one of the worst defenses in the country,
under the first percentile in inside out defensive efficiency. So
I kind of like that on the surface, Stanford's three
point percentich has been you know, I guess a lot
of the offensive metrics don't suggest that there's much room
for I guess positive aggression, but I do feel like
they are getting good looks, so I guess we'll see
vm I, on the other hand, is a driving kick offense.
I believe they're above the ninety fifth percent and driving
kick rate. And you know, if you look at what
Sanford's done this year, they're allowing catch and shoots at
one of the lowest rates in the country. So I
do feel like they have the ability to, you know,
limit what VMI wants to do.
Speaker 3: You know, the number for me at four and a.
Speaker 4: Half again, I made it seven, So I guess America
has moved in that direction. Eighty seventy three Sandford for me,
So it was one of these ones I guess where
there was a combination of liking the schematics and liking
or projecting.
Speaker 3: I guess.
Speaker 4: I guess we'll see if I'm right that this is
the low point for Sanford, and a win today might
see them go from to forty one to maybe to
thirty five.
Speaker 3: You going to get a big bump beating vm I
if they do.
Speaker 4: But I felt like a couple of losses they had
over the last month really created their I guess metrics.
And you know, if you look at some of the
splits in those games, you know, I don't necessarily think
they were as bad as as some of those losses
played out. They played some good halfs, just had you know,
VCU I think comes to mind where they gave them
a run for maybe twenty minutes and then kind of
caved in. But yeah, so Sanford's play for me, and
I guess we'll see if I'm right in a few hours.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't argue with Sanford. So so one thing
I'll add to this. You know, if you if I don't,
if you if you don't watch much vm I basketball,
which I expect not everyone does, this is one of
those places where if you ever watched the game, there's
not going to be many people in the civilian section,
but then the students because it's a military institute similar
to Army, Navy, and and you know the military academies,
Like I do think there is a requirement for them
to go and support Like I do think there's like
some sort of requirement.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 1: The reason I bring.
Speaker 2: That up, Freddy is they actually they bring it at
VMI is the student section is always packed out and
they're loud, and they you know, they'll have their they'll
have their army. What do the pants on with like
the red just like the red student section shirt. Kids
don't get back till January twelfth, and and you know,
you talk about putting Stamford on the road, and clearly
this number, at least where it opens, at least where
you got it, you know, is reflective of some home
core edge for vm I I think you got to
take it out of the equation here until the students
are back. So yeah, I thought the number was a
little bit low. Didn't play it myself, but I kind
of wish I did, because it looks like this one
is gone from looks like we're at like six and
a half now, am I am?
Speaker 1: I correct in saying that, yeah.
Speaker 3: Before I started talking about it.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's taken a little bit of action, I guess
over the last hour or two.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I would have to agree there.
Speaker 2: I just you know, for me, I haven't you know,
VMI is one of those teams that I think has
been kind of undervalued in recent years. But I my
buddy Aaron Kidd lives in Virginia and this is on
our list of like I'll usually go down and hang
with him at least once a year and we'll hit like,
you know, whatever we.
Speaker 1: Can hit in in his area.
Speaker 2: And I know he's kind of been like way ahead
of the curve on like vm I being better than
the market.
Speaker 1: And we were just talking the other day that maybe,
you know, maybe.
Speaker 2: That expired because last year they were a big time
overachiever against the number. Maybe even a little bit earlier
this year, I think what one comes to mind, they
backdoor to number against someone. I think it might have
been Buffalo, but I think they did have some covers
earlier this year might have inflated their their profile a
little bit. They're still at the bottom of this league
and Sanford is still very good. So yeah, I'm with
you to the with the Sanford Lean right there. Yeah,
someone in the chat. Yeah, Keith, Keith Bayu Bets. Landry
is is my buddy, Keith. He's always here.
Speaker 1: He must be. He must have went hard last night.
I mean he's down.
Speaker 2: He lives like twenty minutes outside of New Orleans, so
he who knows, he could have he could have hit
the French Quarter or something last night.
Speaker 1: We don't know.
Speaker 2: But he also hasn't texted me yet this morning, so
I think he's probably sleeping.
Speaker 3: My phone's some pretty quiet as well. I have a
lot of friends just probably rolling in now a big knife.
Speaker 2: But but so Freddie, uh, it's it's We've got about
fifteen minutes left and on this show, I'll give you
a second to think about it. But on this show,
we lock in a it's a two team parlay if
we if we have three people on, we go three
team or it's sort of like what we do in
place of like best Bets. We track it and we're
on a nice little run. We used to have three
hosts on the show. Now we have two, and since
we've gone down to the two teamers, we're kind of hot.
We are are back, I believe for the season. The
parlay is now plus five point one six units. Any
anytime you can bet parlays and you're you're in the plus.
That's pretty good. So basically, for if you were to
bet them equally for every dollar, if you were to
put a dollar on each of them, you'd be up
five dollars in sixteen cents. We don't attach unit rating cities,
but but that is sort of what we do on
the show. So I am gonna give a game out
right now. I'll propose a game. I'm gonna give my
leg out right now, and then I'll let you do
the same. It can be something we've already talked about.
But if if it's something we haven't talked about, you know,
you'll have the pick on the next game. Yeah, I'm
gonna lay it here with Montana, they are at home
against Northern Arizona.
Speaker 1: I just don't agree with this move.
Speaker 2: You know, listen, could Montana like a move like that?
Maybe someone is out like it's possible, like that's that's
down from I thought the opener of seven. I mean,
my where I have this now. I'm very out on NAU.
I think NAU is a bad basketball team. I'm actually
surprised at how good of a non con that they had,
beating teams like cal Poly, Uh Southeast, So you know,
beating cal Poly and Simo.
Speaker 1: I believe those were both a mte.
Speaker 2: That they hosted and they specifically, I remember this now,
put both of those teams in like a back to
back when they played them. Like you want to talk
about home cooking, Freddy. They put cal Poly and Simo
in a back to back and gave themselves a day
off in between the two games.
Speaker 1: So those are two wins. Southern Utah.
Speaker 2: We talked about the WHACK being a very competitive league
this year. I would say Southern Utah is probably the
worst of the seven teams in the WHAC. That's another win.
And then they you know they've got they've got three
wins over non non board teams, non D one teams. Again,
I'll go back to like I I just think that
you know, they lose Taut to Notre Dame. I believe
he was the just an absolute beast rebounder. What I
believe he led this conference in rebounding last year. And
why can I not remember the kid's name is escaping me.
He's like the he I think he would ended up
being like the leading scorer in the history of the program.
Speaker 3: Jayden was a Cohen or something.
Speaker 1: Tris trist something started with a T. His name is
on the tip of my tongue.
Speaker 2: That anyway, you know, last year, that team should have
been awesome with those two guys in the league, like
the Big Sky, they should have been great, and I
felt like I was high on them. I actually went
to Flagstaff last year. I got to see a Northern
Arizona game, and so I followed them closely, and I
could not help but think that that coaching staff cost
them five or six games, just poor game plans, poor
execution late that I put on the staff more than anything.
They did not replace the leading rebounder in the league
and one of the top scorers in the history of
their program. So for me, I'm very much out on
the Lumberjacks. They are very much a fade for me
in almost any scenario coming into conference play. And even
if Montana, like even if this move were injury related
and they were to show up without someone, I don't
know that there's someone that's worth three points on Montana's roster.
Speaker 1: So this number is way too small in my opinion.
Speaker 2: I am going to take the I'm gonna lay a
four and a half with the Montana Grizzlies here. That'll
be my parlay lake. It's in Montana. I think this
is a tough spot for North Yeah.
Speaker 3: Usually a tough tough spot to play, so definitely interesting.
I didn't just listen to what you're saying.
Speaker 4: I was looking at the number, and yeah, it has
come down from seven I saw earlier and I was
kind of.
Speaker 3: Even thinking about that. But interesting, that would be. I
think I see like fives and stuff in the market now.
Speaker 4: So I might have to dig a little bit, but
I can't. I can't disagree with anything you said.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I was just going through my notes here
to Yeah, so I made this number nine point two.
I've got Montana minus nine point two here, So I
actually showed value against the opener and the fact this
is you know that MGM minus four and a half
caesars minus four and a half. That three sixty five
is basically minus four and a half. It looks like
four juice. So again, that type of activity tells me
someone is probably out. But I'm here to say I
don't think it matters. And Penny for what it's worth
is sitting there at five. So they might want the north.
Maybe they want the northern Arizona money. But but yeah,
that's my parlay. Lake Montana minus four and a half
very good, I think.
Speaker 1: All right, yeah, go ahead.
Speaker 3: I think I'll go Queen's.
Speaker 4: I don't know what it is now, four and a half.
Five Queens is at home tonight. I think the Eastern Kentucky,
which will be a very hot variance game given you know,
a sun pace threes everything that that provides. I look
at Queens and they they finished off kind of the
the break, I believe, with some challenging games. I want
to say at the top of my head it was Wake,
Auburn and another SEC team like so they lost three
in a row coming into this one, I believe. I
don't think they played a non board game, and I
guess when I immediately looked at I wouldn't expect them
to win.
Speaker 3: Those games anyway.
Speaker 4: I looked at some of the shooting splits from those games.
They I believe, we're shooting twenty eight percent from three.
The three opponents shot greater than fifty percent from three.
So right right away, I kind of, you know, think
that kind.
Speaker 3: Of evens out this time of year.
Speaker 4: I like to I guess ice late how teams perform
maybe against teams of the similar ability, similar levels. So
I look at this game, I isolated quad three and
four performance or teams kind of in that you know,
two twenty five to onward range, and Queens in in
that kind of competition, has a top sixty offense with
a net two point percentage of nine h e k
U is three hundred and second in defensive efficiency in
that same kind of subsetting of teams, and I like Queen's.
Speaker 3: Like at home.
Speaker 4: I believe this year at home four to zero, shooting
the ball really well. Shot volume metrics are really strong
at home. You know, they're they're very kind of fun
team to watch, a lot of kind of off ball motion,
cutting screening away from the ball.
Speaker 3: They're going to produce a high three point rate. E
KU is allowing.
Speaker 4: I believe they're outside the top two hundred and opponent
three point scoring rate, so they will give some looks there.
Speaker 3: And there've been a little bit of a different team
this year.
Speaker 4: Obviously had some personnel losses, but they're not creating the
same havoc and turnovers as they had in the past.
Speaker 3: I guess my one.
Speaker 4: Worry is EKU probably profiles to maybe create some second
chances with their offensive rebounding.
Speaker 3: That's been a weakness of Queens.
Speaker 4: But again, the matchup wise, and the last thing, I
feel like Queens really gets cooking when they can run
and transition. There are none plus percent transition rate team
with a high efficiency, and if you look at EKU,
they're allowing transition chances above the ninety percent. So I
think Queens will be able to play their game at home.
Don't love laying you know five, I guess we'll call
it or I'm not quite sure what it is there
now in a game that probably brings so much variance,
but I think it's a good spot for them getting
back to the home court in a game, I think
they'll be able to comfortably play their style. And I'm
kind of down on EKU this year. So I know
they had some injuries in the non com but I
feel like, are you know, traditionally been a solid club.
I think they're not quite the same level this year.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 2: I apologize for not for the lack of eye contact
right there, Freddie. We updated our back end to how
we enter plays and I used to. I used to
be able to do it in my sleep, and and
you know, I'm I'll just get let you in on
something I don't like change. I'm very resistant to change,
if you if if I'm doing something the same way
for a long period of time and someone changes it,
I am, I am like not mister adapt to change.
I want it, you know, if like I was, I
was probably I was one of like the last of
my friends to get an iPhone back in the day,
right like I was, just like you know, used to
the T nine texting if you will. The point is,
it's just I wanted to get Montana in because I
was worried that there might be some buyback. It looks
like that might be the case, and I think I
hopefully hopefully I did. I mean, I was trying to
do it here quickly and it is very very challenging
to do so. So anyway, I will update that I
gave Montana is going to be a client play.
Speaker 1: I gave it out at minus five to clients.
Speaker 2: And I think I think that'll be the fair number
for our for our parlay on that game.
Speaker 1: Freddy, did you have a number for that Queen's Game?
Speaker 2: Let me let me pull up the odds because I
want to make sure we're we'll officially lock it in.
Speaker 4: Pinnacle at minus five I think three six, five. Earlier
this morning was at four and a half minus one fifteen.
I think they're up to five now. It seems I
look at kind of different odd screen here. It seems
like five across the board. Yes, five, fair five and
a half at super Book maybe, but I think five.
Speaker 3: It would be Attaina.
Speaker 1: Caesars has a five.
Speaker 2: You can actually still there's some Juice four and a
half's out there, MGM, hard Rock both juiced four and
a half. But yeah, it looks like circa five if
you're in if you're in Vegas, there's a lot of
fives fanatics five rivers four and a half. So yeah,
well we will go we'll officially lock this in right now.
Speaker 1: Then we'll we'll go both.
Speaker 2: So I think that'll be Montana minus five, Queens minus five.
Speaker 3: You got it beautiful.
Speaker 1: All right?
Speaker 2: And so yeah, like I said, that'll be the uh
so those are I guess would be our best bets.
That will be the you know that the parlay for
our show. We'll go with standard parlay odds. There because
both are minus one ten, so so plus two sixty
on that and yeah, hopeful, hopefully you know what you
could do since it worked out this way, you could
probably back it with a little moneyline parlay as well.
I really like both of those teams to win their
respective games.
Speaker 1: Take a spread out of.
Speaker 2: It, sure, but yeah, so so real quick, I guess
at the uh, let's let's see if we can get
one more in.
Speaker 1: We can.
Speaker 2: We can kind of like you know, at the gun,
we don't have to go super into detail in this one.
But I am gonna go, well, I guess we'll we'll
give We'll give the folks rolling out of bed another
early game, so I know people are gonna be on
that YouTube replay like twelve forty five looking for the
early games. At tip off at one, I threw the
Coastal Carolina Polo on just to keep me on brand.
I like to, you know, find someone that's playing, maybe
have an opinion that I have an opinion on. Although
my opinion here is kind of anti coastal, but I
like the polo and wanted to wear it. I got
this down and got this down in Conway, South Carolina,
when I visited the HTC Center last year Freddie, which
I don't know if you've seen it.
Speaker 1: They decided to go all teel on the floor this year.
It's very interesting, to say the least.
Speaker 2: I agree with the move here. I can't Coastal. I
like this team coming into the season. I thought they
were very undervalued coming into the season. The more I
watched them play offense, I see a lot of not
moving around. They've got a couple guys that can really cook,
like Jones is the one that stayed from last year
that probably could have trained straight out.
Speaker 1: Is a very good score.
Speaker 2: And you know, there's some some individual offensive talent they defend.
I like Justin Gray as a coach, former Wake Forest
demon Deacon.
Speaker 3: Yep.
Speaker 2: But I think my numbers suggest that they should not
be favored here even though they're at home.
Speaker 1: What do you think Georgia Southern Coastal?
Speaker 3: I am on Georgia Southern plus two.
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, for a lot of reasons that I
suppose you said. I'm pretty high on Southern terms of
what they're doing this year. When I look at Coastal Carolina,
no doubt an improvement. But you know, when I watch
and then when I look at the metrics that back
it up. It's a very ISO heavy offense, a very
low assist rate, I think a bottom twenty national assist rate,
which you know it's tough to kind of sustain with
free flowing offense. And Georgia Southern is a very aggressive
defense off from two to the ball, very hot turnover rate,
so it's gonna be hard to turn the corner, you know,
off the dribble with these types of defenses. When I
look at I guess coastal set up you mentioned Gray,
Gray is definitely a drop coverage employer, or that's what
coastal will play, forcing the ball handler to finish. I
think most recently when I looked at a coastal limits
kind of assists at a top ten rate nationally, what
that would suggest is, you know, the drop coverage just
basically means you stay at home on the perimeter, you
don't help in the gaps, you force the ball handler
to finish. But that's how the Georgia Southern offense is wired.
They're i think above the ninety fifth percentile and field
goal attempts off to dribble.
Speaker 3: It's what they want to do. So I kind of
like just the the way they're playing and this matchup.
Speaker 4: Both ways, I feel like they're kind of more aggressive
defense can force Coastal to move the ball, which is
not something they've been great at with the low assists, right,
you know, if you bring to the ball, you had
to be able to move to the weak sod not
something they've shown me they do consistently anyway. And on
the other end, as I mentioned, they're the drop coverage.
I think Georgia Southern has several creators off the dribble
that can kind of heat that up.
Speaker 3: So I had.
Speaker 4: Georgia Suthern a slight favorite here, so I wanted I
suppose some action to it. You never know, I guess
early start on the road, that sort of thing. But
I had then the better team, so I guess we'll see.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you talked me into it. It looks
like I'm gonna have to take plus one and a half.
Kicking myself because I felt like it was faked up earlier.
Speaker 1: I was like, man, that's so interesting. Yeah, there was
this opened two.
Speaker 2: It actually went to two and a half momentarily, and
I was like, yeah, that might be a little bit
of a you know whatever, like a manipulation of sorts,
and I think that's the case. So there is actually
still a couple two's out there. They're They're definitely not
books that are what I would consider widely available. So yeah,
I'm with you, though every thing you said makes sense.
The biggest thing I've noticed personally watching a lot of
Coastal Carolina ball is that they just The game that
really sticks out to me is the Alabama A and
M game. I got very, very fortunate to h to
cover six and a half with Coastal in that game,
and they had a pretty substantial lead at one point
and they just you know, they ended up just standing
around for almost an entire half and I was kind.
Speaker 1: Of like, man, like this is this is not good
and I got lucky to cover at the end.
Speaker 2: And ever since then, I've kind of watched them and
I'm like, did I maybe come out of the gate?
Speaker 1: Well? Maybe was I right on this team?
Speaker 2: And now I've got to reassess Like they came out
they overachieved, which I wasn't surprised because I like some
of the guys that they had back. But now I'm
almost feeling like the market has maybe moved too far
in their favor, and so I'm with you. I'm the same.
I've got Georgia Southern slight favorite. Yeah, it's an early.
Speaker 4: Tim Yeah, it's very interesting to me how Coastal kind
of ramped up their pace this year too, and last
year they were playing, you know, at snails pace on
one of the bottom tempos. This year there I think
like top fifty sixty tempos, which is again what this
Georgia Southern offense wants to do with Charlie Henry.
Speaker 3: They're coming from the Alabama kind of system. You know,
that team.
Speaker 4: Thraws with pace offensively anyway in my mind, So I'll
be interesting to see if Coastal as you get into
conference play, maybe dolls it back a bit. But yeah,
I think Southern's a decent bet, particularly getting a point
or two and game I think they certainly can win.
Speaker 2: All right, guys, we've reached the top of the hour.
I don't know if anyone else is doing shows today.
Usually I got to get off on because we have
a pretty tight schedule in terms of like shows. I
don't know if we've got got one behind me, but
that's why we get the hard stop at eleven on
our parlay again, two teamer for the show Montana minus
five Queen's minus five. So there you go, nice easy
two team or for the show two client plays for me,
I gave out on the show Montana minus five, and
I'm going to join Freddy with Georgia Southern.
Speaker 1: He he pushed me. It was one.
Speaker 2: I was already sort of leaning that way, and I
took the plus one and a half.
Speaker 1: There Freddy's got plus two.
Speaker 2: And then did you also bet the queen's side is
that it is a bet for you as well?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 4: I bet that at three six five earlier took four
and a half minus one fifteen personally, but you know
I have five was perfectly fine too.
Speaker 1: And what about and Sanford was a bet for you
as well, just.
Speaker 4: At Stanford four and a half. Yeah, so those are
the three I believe, the only three I have bet.
And like I said, Baptist is another one that I
have interest in but didn't want to lay the two
and a half. So it'll be interested to see maybe
someone pushes back and knocks that down to one and
a half one, and then maybe I might dabble a
little bit or like look for potentially a slow start
and maybe try and get. You know, if they go
down three to nothing, five nothing might be able to
get something like that.
Speaker 3: Is I'm not dying to.
Speaker 4: Jump in at the number now, like I kind of
just want the money line at a bit more appealing price.
Speaker 3: I guess.
Speaker 2: All right, Happy New Year everybody. I hope you have
a great day. I'll be back with Veno tomorrow ten
am Eastern. Thanks again to Freddy for tuning in and
you can find him on Twitter.
Speaker 1: Freddy, what's your Twitter handle?
Speaker 3: It's just Freddy mill seven.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and thanks Adam for having me on and everyone
for I guess listening to me ramble on about it,
and best of luck to everyone today.
Speaker 1: All right, see you guys tomorrow, Yeah,