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Speaker 1: All right, everyone, Happy New Year.

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Speaker 2: It's Thursday, but it's also the first day of twenty

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twenty six. Rob Vino has the day off and in

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his place my good pal Freddie Mills. Freddy, Happy New Year.

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Did you did you getting any fun last night on

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New Year's Eve?

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Speaker 3: Happy New Year, Adam.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, a little bang up this morning. Kind of had

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a neighborhood get together last night. Some fireworks, so a

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little bit of a later night than I hoped, but

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you know, spend it with some good people and whatnot.

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Speaker 3: So no complaints.

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Speaker 1: That's that's great to hear you.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it was good. We kept it low key. We

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have had in the in the Syracuse area, the area

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I live in, we have had the most snow in

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the month of December since nineteen ninety three, so like

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literal record snowfall. Going anywhere has been a challenge. I

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was actually supposed to go visit I was actually supposed

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to be at the Tarleton State Game tonight visiting some

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friends and family in Texas. I've had to push that off,

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although I may be still shooting for this weekend, so

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we'll see. But yeah, other than that, can't complain. We

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had a great slate of New Year's Eve hoops yesterday,

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and they've left us with a couple of games today

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most of the mid major conferences. But Freddie, that's like,

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you know me, like these are the leagues that I

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almost kind of prefer to talk about. So picking a

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feature game was I guess a little bit difficult, But

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to me, the Missouri Valley has been a great league

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for a long time, and we've got a couple of

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good Valley games tonight, I think the biggest being Bradley

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heading down to Nashville to take on Belmont. So I'll

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kick it over to you to start this one off

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for our feature game. Bradley Belmont. How are you seeing

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this one?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, just pulling up some of myself.

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Speaker 4: I think Bradley her Belmont Storry is off an OT

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loss to Indiana State, So you know, you kind of

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see how those teams react to that. And I guess

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even today, like a common theme I guess for me

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or thinking point is like you have like the New

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Year's Day some early tips, I guess which teams are

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most disciplined and getting a full night's rest, and you

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never kind of know kind of how that stuff plays

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at any game with Belmont I think brings a high

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degree of variance with their obviously the perimeter attack you know,

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well known for their motion offense, creating these hot quality threes.

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Speaker 3: Bradley I think washing them this year.

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Speaker 4: Their strength they are defenses on the ball with Johnson,

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Ja Kwan Johnson, I think Jake one is the first

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name I think really good kind of at the point

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of attack. You know, I do think Belmont has the

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ability to kind of work I guess, to the weaknesses

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if you will, of the Bradley defense, which is off

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the ball and kind of on the perimeter. As their offense,

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as I mentioned, is more kind of about these off

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the ball screens, off all cutting these types of things.

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Speaker 3: And if you look.

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Speaker 4: At you know, how Bradley's bigs in particular have defended

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some of these, you know, inside out actions, pick and

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pop actions. You know, hoop Explorer is a great I

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guess like that you can use to kind of look

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at how teams defend different sets. I believe, you know,

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just pulling up now, Bradley is in the ten percent

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against inside out actions and that's what Belmont's offense is

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all about.

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Speaker 3: You know, I think this number has come down. You

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you probably correct me on that.

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Speaker 4: I think it was like seven maybe five ish now,

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something which you know makes sense as you know you have.

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Speaker 3: A competitive rivalry here.

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Speaker 4: I think since these teams have been in the same conference,

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I want to say Belmont has a three two edge.

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You know, I played some good games in the last

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few years, but for me, I suppose I didn't really

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see an edge in the number. I do feel like

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Belmont potentially, if you know the perimeter team is working,

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can expose Brett or sorry, yeah, Bradley's perimeter defense, but

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not enough to maybe better myself.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: So just something that I think going into the new year,

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you know, as I spent the four days over sort

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of the Christmas lull where we didn't have any games,

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you know, trying to trying to figure out, like what

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went wrong for me the first two months of the season.

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Just did you know I've been beating numbers, Freddy, But

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like it's almost like that, you know, the good CLV

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is not translated into wins for me.

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Speaker 1: At least, I think.

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Speaker 2: I think it speaks to the high level of just

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randomness that that is now in college basketball, opposed to

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like what this used to be ten fifteen years ago. Yeah,

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the reason I bring that up is because, like going

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into the new year, I'm really I reviewed all of

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my my sort of notes records, and what ill what

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I will do is I basically keep track of anything

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that that qualifies from like a numerical move for or

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like a numbers perspective.

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Speaker 1: That doesn't mean I'm betting.

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Speaker 2: I mean, if I were to bet every sort of

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number edge that I showed, my volume would be out

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of control. I'd probably be just totally eaten alive on juice.

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With that being said, you know, you you talked about

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not really having a a number or an edge on

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the number here for the side, Like I'm kind of

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throwing games out because of that now. So like for

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this one, you know, I came in pretty much at six.

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Now I didn't see I saw this one open a

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couple of different different a couple of different places. I

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couldn't really like find like the true opener for this one,

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But it does feel like the six and a half

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to five and a half range?

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Speaker 1: Am I right on that? Would you call that the

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opener for this game?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? I think that's what I saw.

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Speaker 4: I thought I saw seven, But like my projection is

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again I've had my share of struggles this year seventy

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nine new two Belmont, so I was kind of right

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on the.

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Speaker 3: I guess initial number.

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Speaker 4: And as I mentioned, like with Bellmont, they're a great

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perimeter shooting team that they do play compact as well,

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so they're kind of a team that shoots a lot

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of threes, allows a lot of three. So that after

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me kind of as you know, from game to game,

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you never kind of know where you're gonna fall with

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the regression type stuff. And Bradley, as I mentioned, you

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know their defense is going to give some stuff up.

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I think because they're their bigs, are going to struggle

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a little bit more in space. But on the other end,

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I think Johnson that I mentioned and some of their

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other kind of quicker guards can certainly get into their

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like drive and kick action that they're I guess offense

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revolved around because Bellmont's defense will kind of play in

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the gaps and allow the you know, just try and

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play compact, protect the rim, and live with kind of

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that perimeter shooting against. So that's why I kind of

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am less inclined to trust any projection when I had

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when I think there's gonna be a lot of three

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point shooting just because it's the hardest thing to predict

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them game to game.

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Speaker 2: No, absolutely, And that's where you know, I kind of

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I guess, you know, straight from the point I was

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trying to make. But like I guess where I'm at

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now is if I'm not seeing a numerical edge one

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way or another, like it's going to have to really

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be something that I either had very much circled or

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like there's such a stylistic like matchup. I almost think

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those are getting overpriced into the number these days where

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because teams, and I'll go back to my original point,

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because teams are so new, and it's like you have

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these coaches who all these coaches seem very very frustrated,

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like in my opinion, with it's like they want to

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play a certain way and they like it, just they

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they don't have players long enough to play the way

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they want to play. So like for me, I'm more

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like trying to just find the bigger the bigger number

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edges and then I'm looking for a good spot for

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the team that I'm trying to back in this game.

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I didn't really get either of those, and I will

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go back to the beginning of the year. You know,

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Bradley's a team that I do still kind of have

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as one of the teams that I think might be

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undervalued right now just in general. It doesn't really help

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me as much here, but this is a team that

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I thought could have won this league coming into the year.

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They have, you know, the loss to Tennessee Martin early

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in the year that's obviously a bad loss, didn't play

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well against Saint Bonaventure, you know.

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Speaker 1: They've looked really good of late.

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Speaker 2: And I think the final point I'll make on just

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in general, on this game before we move on to

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the next to the next game, is that the conference

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play really represents a reset of sorts, and I think

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you do have to go revisit some of your like

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preseason sort of outlook on a team because the slate

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is white, clean. Loyol in Chicago yesterday, a great example,

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comes out and plays great in their A ten.

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Speaker 1: Opener after a horrible non conference slate.

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Speaker 2: So again, those are just kind of some things that

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this game made me think of, but no real bet

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here for me.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think Bradley's biggest edge, you know, if you

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were to break it down, looks to be like Shafa

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and potentially like they're a very good turnover net turnover team,

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protect the ball well, create a lot of turnovers. That

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can be an issue, you know, metrically, at least for

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Bellmont and your reference. You know, sometimes you have to

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dig deeper the U team Martin Loss, I remember that game.

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I think Bradley went something like two for twenty from three. So,

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you know, when you get those type of shooting performances

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which are impossible to predict, it's really tough to.

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Speaker 3: Win a game. So yeah, I'm kind of with you.

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Speaker 4: I think they can kind of re establish themselves now

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in the in conference play, and that's always a great conference,

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a lot of good teams, fun to watch.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, tremendous league it has been for a long time.

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And again two really good teams couldn't couldn't find a

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real way in there. But I felt like that game,

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being as it's late, a little bit later in the day,

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and the fact that those two teams could very well

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be battling it out at the top of that league

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this year, deserved some tension. The A kid says is

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the chat broken could be your chat? Your comment came

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through on YouTube. I did notice, like the chat is

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usually far more lively at this point, and I did

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notice that the chat comments are not coming through. So

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to answer your question, your comment came through fine. Billy

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Humphrey says, Happy New Year everyone, conference play today. Yep, absolutely,

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Happy New Year to everyone out there. So some of

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the comments are coming through on the chat, but yeah,

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it's definitely not the ones that that we use.

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Speaker 1: That not as many as we usually get.

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Speaker 2: So I don't know where this is broken, but if

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you're seeing this, I believe we are. We're running on

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Twitter right now and it looks like the YouTube chat

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is working. So if you want to get a comment in,

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if you want us to see it, maybe head on

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over to the YouTube live stream because those are the

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ones that looks like they're coming through.

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Speaker 1: Or what you can also do is just.

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Speaker 2: Tweet at us, tweet tweet in the live stream and

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we'll see it there as well. All right, all right, Freddy,

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I want to move on to this game. Uh, I

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was hope, So again I am going to get down

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to I am going to get down to see my

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buddy Kyle in Texas. At some point this year, we

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had tentatively planned for this week and for this game,

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and like I was telling you, the the snow did

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not cooperate. I mean, we have gotten absolutely pummeled here

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all week. Uh there was not a single snowflake on

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the ground on Christmas, a you know, not the opposite

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of a white Christmas. And we have gotten absolutely pummeled

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since then. So no trip to me for Texas today.

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The game I would have been going.

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Speaker 1: To sadly looks to looks like it's gonna be a

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great game.

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Speaker 3: Uh.

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Speaker 2: Utah Valley took care of business earlier this week against

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cal Baptist. Tarleton took care of business on the road

242
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against ut Arlington. Freddie, I am so excited to watch

243
00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:05,039
Whack basketball this year, the last chance will get to

244
00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:08,399
watch it. It's only a seven team league, but like

245
00:12:08,519 --> 00:12:11,000
five of these teams are really good, and some of

246
00:12:11,039 --> 00:12:13,120
them are gonna play, yeah, like some of them are

247
00:12:13,159 --> 00:12:16,679
gonna play three times. I actually think Utah Valley Tarleton

248
00:12:16,759 --> 00:12:18,919
might be one of the ones that you see three

249
00:12:19,159 --> 00:12:23,679
three meetings of this year. I know that there's I

250
00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:27,120
think most of them. Actually, because it's a seven team league,

251
00:12:27,120 --> 00:12:28,559
I think you're gonna get a six.

252
00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:31,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's six teams playing three times.

253
00:12:31,759 --> 00:12:34,039
Speaker 2: I think you have an eighteen game league schedule, so

254
00:12:35,519 --> 00:12:37,519
I think most of these teams will play three times.

255
00:12:37,559 --> 00:12:40,399
That's certainly a unique setup when it comes to conference play.

256
00:12:41,399 --> 00:12:44,279
And this this should be a great game. Brand new

257
00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:48,200
arena down there for Tarleton. This is eight pm and Stevenville,

258
00:12:49,039 --> 00:12:51,960
Utah State or I'm sorry, Utah Valley, Tarleton, what are

259
00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:52,559
you see in here?

260
00:12:53,759 --> 00:12:56,519
Speaker 4: Yeah, my projection was just looking at it here, so

261
00:12:56,600 --> 00:13:00,320
apologize them. Sometimes clients into the sad seventy four seventy

262
00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:04,279
one Utah Valley. So I almost bet the under before

263
00:13:04,320 --> 00:13:07,320
I went out celebrating last night, and looks like the

264
00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:08,360
market kind of agreed.

265
00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:11,840
Speaker 3: I guess why I didn't was potential.

266
00:13:12,120 --> 00:13:15,240
Speaker 4: You know, Tarleton to me, anytime you watch a game,

267
00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:18,879
the the whistle is very key with their pressure defense

268
00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:22,159
they have. You know, their offensive style is all about

269
00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:24,279
getting downhill and getting to the line, and their pressure

270
00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:27,679
defense is very susceptible to getting other teams in the

271
00:13:27,679 --> 00:13:30,840
bonus very quickly. So it's never fun to kind of

272
00:13:30,919 --> 00:13:34,480
seeing under kind of bleed out to the kind of

273
00:13:34,519 --> 00:13:36,480
you know, both teams in the bonus early. So that's

274
00:13:36,519 --> 00:13:38,879
kind of why I stayed away. The other thing that's

275
00:13:38,919 --> 00:13:41,399
frustrated me with Tarlton, I guess is just trying to

276
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figure out their their personnel from game to game. I

277
00:13:43,639 --> 00:13:45,919
know there's sometimes they pop up and de Or Johnson

278
00:13:46,039 --> 00:13:48,519
is nowhere to be seen. And obviously over the years,

279
00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:51,279
like Freddie Hicks, and obviously now with conference play, you

280
00:13:51,320 --> 00:13:55,279
would assume you know whoever's healthy is going. But they're

281
00:13:55,360 --> 00:13:57,559
kind of a tricky team, the kind of handicap pre

282
00:13:57,639 --> 00:13:59,960
flop just because you never really know and the covered

283
00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:02,639
on the team can be you know, hit or miss.

284
00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:05,480
I guess when I look at this, when I feel

285
00:14:05,559 --> 00:14:10,360
like Utah Valley's biggest kind of two keys will be

286
00:14:10,799 --> 00:14:13,879
can they protect the ball? If you just look at

287
00:14:13,919 --> 00:14:15,840
the raw metrics, I think they're in the bottom fifty

288
00:14:15,919 --> 00:14:19,919
nationally and offensive turnover eight, which is, you know, not

289
00:14:20,039 --> 00:14:21,720
something you want to see as you hit the road

290
00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:24,159
against a defense that throws there. And the other thing

291
00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:26,399
is kend of make the free throws, which has been

292
00:14:26,919 --> 00:14:27,720
an issue.

293
00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:28,159
Speaker 3: For them as well.

294
00:14:28,279 --> 00:14:31,799
Speaker 4: I was on Utah Valley a couple of days ago.

295
00:14:31,919 --> 00:14:34,399
I think got minus six, end up winning by seven,

296
00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:37,200
but there was you know, that last minute was not

297
00:14:37,399 --> 00:14:39,679
nice to watch. I think they're only like sixty six

298
00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:42,600
sixty five percent from free throw line, and that will

299
00:14:42,639 --> 00:14:45,480
have to be like a key for them today because

300
00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:47,279
they're likely going to get to the line. With how

301
00:14:47,919 --> 00:14:50,799
Tarlton extends their defense and plays in the gaps and

302
00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:55,200
these types of things. My biggest kind of worry for

303
00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:59,279
I guess Tarleton is this game is very likely to

304
00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:01,440
be played toward the rim.

305
00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:02,759
Speaker 3: You know, both offenses.

306
00:15:02,879 --> 00:15:05,440
Speaker 4: Utah Valley is a very dominant front court, likes to

307
00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:08,080
play through their bigs and Tarleton, as I mentioned, kind

308
00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:10,279
of gets downhill. And if you look at the net

309
00:15:10,279 --> 00:15:14,039
two point percentages of these teams, I believe Utah Valley

310
00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:15,840
is one of the best in the country at plus ten,

311
00:15:16,759 --> 00:15:20,639
so basically just subtracting offensive two point shooting percentage from

312
00:15:20,639 --> 00:15:25,000
their defensive two point shooting percent defense, whereas Tarleton is

313
00:15:25,039 --> 00:15:28,840
minus seven. So you know, that would be something that

314
00:15:28,879 --> 00:15:32,799
points toward the Utah Valley side. I believe it's the

315
00:15:33,679 --> 00:15:35,799
you know, kind of a tricky, tricky game because like

316
00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:38,919
I said, the whistle is very key in Tarleton games.

317
00:15:38,919 --> 00:15:42,480
I do think Tarleton is a team that is better

318
00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:44,320
than maybe some of the metrics their team I'd.

319
00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:44,759
Speaker 3: Like to play on.

320
00:15:44,919 --> 00:15:47,679
Speaker 4: I just maybe didn't love this matchup, and off I

321
00:15:47,759 --> 00:15:50,240
kind of leaned their way. I guess my number was three.

322
00:15:50,320 --> 00:15:52,639
I think in the amrket I think it's four four

323
00:15:52,639 --> 00:15:57,080
and a half. But you know, I think as of now,

324
00:15:57,080 --> 00:15:58,600
I'll pass, I'll kind of see how the market goes.

325
00:15:58,639 --> 00:15:59,679
So that's kind of how I see it.

326
00:16:01,960 --> 00:16:04,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I probably am.

327
00:16:05,200 --> 00:16:07,480
Speaker 2: I probably get as good at info as possible, like

328
00:16:07,519 --> 00:16:10,879
if anyone with Tarlton, because again I I, you know,

329
00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:13,399
have some some pals down there that are close to

330
00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:16,639
the program and and that are you know, very tuned in,

331
00:16:16,679 --> 00:16:19,759
and it's a team I follow closely. Even I have

332
00:16:19,919 --> 00:16:24,639
been uh surprised at times with you know, there was

333
00:16:24,679 --> 00:16:28,200
there was stuff that like like I've been surprised with

334
00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:29,080
guys missing.

335
00:16:29,519 --> 00:16:30,679
Speaker 1: Uh you know there was a game.

336
00:16:30,559 --> 00:16:33,639
Speaker 2: Where Jor Johnson played and then just played one minute

337
00:16:33,639 --> 00:16:34,919
and didn't play the rest of the game.

338
00:16:35,399 --> 00:16:35,480
Speaker 4: Uh.

339
00:16:35,679 --> 00:16:38,960
Speaker 2: Freddie, the fact that he's coming off the bench but

340
00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:43,440
yet he averages twenty one points per game is is certainly.

341
00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:45,279
Speaker 1: Odd in my opinion.

342
00:16:45,679 --> 00:16:46,759
Speaker 3: It's a choice.

343
00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:49,120
Speaker 2: You know, this was a team that did not expect

344
00:16:49,159 --> 00:16:51,799
to have Freddie Hicks. He kind of like backdoored his

345
00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:54,720
way into an extra year. Of eligibility via the same

346
00:16:54,799 --> 00:16:57,840
rule that Tyon Grant Foster used to get an extra.

347
00:16:57,639 --> 00:16:58,559
Speaker 1: Year of eligibility.

348
00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:02,159
Speaker 2: So like like where they were rated coming into the season,

349
00:17:02,759 --> 00:17:06,319
to then just like magically get Freddie Hicks, who's probably

350
00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:08,960
the highest usage player on the team and has been

351
00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:12,440
for a couple of years, is massive. All of that

352
00:17:12,519 --> 00:17:14,839
makes me really like this team. Like the other thing too,

353
00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:18,400
is they did have so they had some injury, but Freddie,

354
00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:22,079
like they had a stretch in December where they had

355
00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:24,680
guys banged up, and they also played a series of

356
00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:27,799
like non D one games and then like a couple

357
00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:31,640
of teams like Mississippi Valley State is a walkthrough Florida

358
00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:33,680
A and M like these these teams that were like

359
00:17:33,799 --> 00:17:36,480
not going to really challenge them. And so I do

360
00:17:36,599 --> 00:17:38,640
know that guys were healthy and just kind of not

361
00:17:38,799 --> 00:17:42,720
playing for a stretch. So as far as I know,

362
00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:45,039
like unless something happened in the Arlington game that I

363
00:17:45,039 --> 00:17:48,400
don't know about, the health should not be an issue

364
00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:50,640
with this team right now. And what that means is,

365
00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:53,200
you know, Chris and Paka missed a couple of games.

366
00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:55,400
He is going to be massive for them in this

367
00:17:55,440 --> 00:17:58,519
matchup because the one thing you have to have to

368
00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:01,680
compete with Utah at is you've got to be able

369
00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:04,720
to combat their size, like Utah Valley for that league

370
00:18:05,599 --> 00:18:09,480
has you know, their their size is superior. Calpapt just

371
00:18:09,559 --> 00:18:13,160
really struggled with that on you know, on Monday, and

372
00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:14,960
I think that's probably part of the reason. If you

373
00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:17,160
were on Utah Valley in that game, you had to

374
00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:19,160
think they're going to keep Don Daniels and they're going

375
00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:21,079
to keep Martell away from the rim, and that's kind

376
00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:22,079
of what happened.

377
00:18:22,039 --> 00:18:23,759
Speaker 4: Yeah, and for me for me, and that one was

378
00:18:23,799 --> 00:18:26,279
more so like I think Daniels is good enough to

379
00:18:26,319 --> 00:18:29,119
get to his spot, but you then finishing over size

380
00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:32,720
is you know, the extra challenge there where you know,

381
00:18:32,759 --> 00:18:36,319
the game they're playing today, I think they're against Arlington,

382
00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:39,279
they're much likely to face less size and Daniels and

383
00:18:39,319 --> 00:18:42,279
Williamson feel a bit more comfortable against the drop coverage

384
00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:45,480
versus you know, the monsters they signed. The paint there

385
00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:49,720
just makes a challenging for efficiency. So yeah, front court

386
00:18:49,759 --> 00:18:53,240
for them a great two way rebounding team and play

387
00:18:53,279 --> 00:18:55,240
for their big So it kind of puts other teams

388
00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:58,200
in a bond whether they need to help and you

389
00:18:58,240 --> 00:18:59,559
know how they're how they're going to.

390
00:18:59,559 --> 00:19:01,240
Speaker 3: Match up on the block.

391
00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:06,279
Speaker 2: So and Paca is you know, I think he's the

392
00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:08,599
key here because again the size thing, but also he

393
00:19:09,079 --> 00:19:12,160
really hasn't returned to his normal minutes yet. So like

394
00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:14,559
since he's been back, it's been ten to fifteen minutes

395
00:19:14,599 --> 00:19:17,359
a game. I mean that's a guy. You know, against Rice,

396
00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:19,640
he played pretty much the whole game twenty two points.

397
00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:22,400
Had twenty four against Merrimac. Like when he's when he

398
00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:24,559
is right, like he's going to be out there the

399
00:19:24,599 --> 00:19:26,839
majority of the game. No, they have depth, but their

400
00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:29,319
depth is more in my opinion, at the guard position,

401
00:19:29,799 --> 00:19:34,400
guys like Cam McDowell, Dior, you know, Freddie Hicks is

402
00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:38,920
kind of a combo type guy. It's just all it's

403
00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:41,759
gonna be all about can they keep Utah Valley out

404
00:19:41,759 --> 00:19:43,960
of the paint. If they can't, Utah Vley's gonna score

405
00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:47,240
at will. And can they I think they can get

406
00:19:47,559 --> 00:19:50,079
you know, get some. I don't hate the way they

407
00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:52,839
set up in terms of will probably slow the game down.

408
00:19:53,519 --> 00:19:56,680
Freddy probably draws fouls as good as anyone in the country.

409
00:19:56,720 --> 00:19:58,640
He's so good at getting to the free throw line.

410
00:20:00,039 --> 00:20:01,200
Speaker 1: Numbers right in this one too.

411
00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:03,039
Speaker 2: In my opinion, I feel like if you were going

412
00:20:03,079 --> 00:20:05,079
to target this game, you'd probably be looking more toward

413
00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:08,160
the under maybe or the total. I felt like four

414
00:20:08,319 --> 00:20:10,559
was pretty fair for this one. Should be a great game.

415
00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:12,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm right in line with it.

416
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:16,519
Speaker 4: Had a sleek, slight sort of it, like I guess

417
00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:18,119
lineage toward Tyleton.

418
00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:20,799
Speaker 3: But yeah, again, nothing I felt comfortable in not playing.

419
00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:25,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, the one thing about the new arena and when

420
00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:27,279
I get there, whether it be Saturday or not, I'm

421
00:20:27,279 --> 00:20:30,119
still trying to move my schedule around. But you know,

422
00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:34,480
they moved into a brand new, beautiful arena. I can't

423
00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:37,599
wait to see it. It's the same architect built it

424
00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:42,519
as Foster Pavilion. It's almost a clone of Foster Pavilion.

425
00:20:42,559 --> 00:20:45,279
But as you know, Foster Pavilion, seventy five hundred and

426
00:20:45,279 --> 00:20:49,599
eight thousand kids at Baylor is very small comparative to

427
00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:52,839
Wisdom Gym. It's a large step up in you know,

428
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,440
I think you could get three thousand at Wisdom Gym.

429
00:20:56,039 --> 00:20:57,000
Speaker 1: No students there.

430
00:20:57,279 --> 00:20:59,400
Speaker 2: I'll be interested to see if they have much of

431
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:01,079
an atmosphere for this game.

432
00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:02,480
Speaker 1: New Year's Night.

433
00:21:02,599 --> 00:21:05,240
Speaker 2: So again that that home core edge that I've always

434
00:21:05,279 --> 00:21:07,359
kind of had built into Charleton, who's been very good

435
00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:09,319
at home and when the kids are there like that's

436
00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:12,279
I mean, they've they have filled that that small gym before.

437
00:21:12,519 --> 00:21:14,480
I'm interested to see if they still have the same

438
00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:19,319
edge in this building. So again, all all talking points,

439
00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:21,400
I don't you know, We're just trying to give out

440
00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:23,480
info that that's what That's what Rob and I do

441
00:21:23,559 --> 00:21:26,160
on this show, trying to give you like six or

442
00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:28,720
seven games you know where we've got some information for

443
00:21:28,759 --> 00:21:31,599
you to make the best choice possible. And and Freddie

444
00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:35,599
will be joining me for the parlay today, so stay tuned.

445
00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:37,759
Speaker 1: We've got the parlay of the day. Rob will be

446
00:21:37,799 --> 00:21:38,400
back tomorrow.

447
00:21:38,519 --> 00:21:41,079
Speaker 2: If you want the stuff from Rob, check out wager

448
00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:43,880
Talk wager Talk dot com, check out Rob's page. And

449
00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:47,519
Rob and I still have that great combo package three

450
00:21:47,559 --> 00:21:50,720
day all access where you can get us Thursday, Friday, Saturday.

451
00:21:50,799 --> 00:21:53,920
You can use it now anytime during the week. All right, Freddie,

452
00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:57,200
we have a donation from Garth. Uh so we're gonna check.

453
00:21:57,039 --> 00:21:57,680
Speaker 1: This game out.

454
00:21:58,319 --> 00:21:58,440
Speaker 4: Uh.

455
00:21:58,759 --> 00:22:01,599
Speaker 2: He's his thoughts on calp Holly. You see San Diego?

456
00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:04,359
He leans you see San Diego. To cover the eight

457
00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:06,880
and a half, and I kind of joked about this

458
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:09,920
earlier in the week. There's about there's like five teams

459
00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:13,240
that I've almost pulled out of my of trying to

460
00:22:13,279 --> 00:22:16,440
do anything with because, like you know, going back to

461
00:22:16,559 --> 00:22:19,160
the point I made about trying to to really like

462
00:22:19,319 --> 00:22:22,000
trust my numbers, I had to weed out a couple

463
00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:24,000
of teams that are that are when I considered to

464
00:22:24,039 --> 00:22:27,680
be major outliers. Loyola Chicago is one of them. For

465
00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:29,880
for a bad and on the bad end of the spectrum.

466
00:22:30,319 --> 00:22:32,079
You see San Diego as one on the good end

467
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:34,759
of the spectrum. With Eric Owen heading to New Mexico,

468
00:22:34,839 --> 00:22:38,480
I did not expect this team to be, as the

469
00:22:38,559 --> 00:22:40,519
kids say, a wagon at this point in the year,

470
00:22:40,559 --> 00:22:44,319
but that's exactly what they've been. So Garth I, you know,

471
00:22:44,519 --> 00:22:46,640
I kind of lean you see San Diego just from

472
00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:49,920
the respect that, like, you know, with the way cal

473
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,759
Polly plays to play, to play an offense that's as

474
00:22:52,799 --> 00:22:55,400
efficient as they are, I think could be tough. But

475
00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:57,759
I don't trust my rating right now on you see

476
00:22:57,759 --> 00:23:00,200
San Diego. So that's my that's my problem. Freddie talk

477
00:23:00,279 --> 00:23:00,480
to me.

478
00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:03,079
Speaker 1: You know. It taught me in or out of the

479
00:23:03,759 --> 00:23:04,480
Tritons here.

480
00:23:06,079 --> 00:23:10,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, I believe they were coming off D one loss

481
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:15,759
to San Diego. I want to say, so you probably

482
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:17,880
you know when you're looking at different angles, I guess

483
00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:20,039
this time of year, whether it's the bounced back angle

484
00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:25,359
or you know, just pure motivation. There's certainly been a.

485
00:23:23,839 --> 00:23:25,039
Speaker 3: Pleasant surprise to me too.

486
00:23:25,079 --> 00:23:27,599
Speaker 4: I did figure they'd take a step back from the

487
00:23:27,599 --> 00:23:31,359
tournament team, just given some of the personnel changes and whatnot.

488
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:35,359
But I've been very impressive obviously in the in the

489
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:39,839
non com some nice wins that beat the team I

490
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:43,119
mentioned earlier. Bradley, you know, a great shooting team can

491
00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:47,119
spread the floor five while with guys who can kind

492
00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:51,200
of rip the three moved the ball very well. I

493
00:23:51,319 --> 00:23:55,440
had this one as I'm looking down ninety one eighty Polly,

494
00:23:55,559 --> 00:23:57,839
So I guess or sorry, you see San Diego, So

495
00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:00,480
I guess I would certainly lean covering the and a half.

496
00:24:00,519 --> 00:24:03,960
I have it closer to ten and a half eleven. Again,

497
00:24:04,039 --> 00:24:07,319
nothing I played yet probably has certainly been a very

498
00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:09,920
scrappy team, even going back to last year.

499
00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:13,119
Speaker 3: Covering games as underdogs, you.

500
00:24:13,039 --> 00:24:17,480
Speaker 4: Can expect pace here, so that kind of brings, you know,

501
00:24:17,519 --> 00:24:20,200
a little bit more unpredictability into it. I believe probably

502
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:23,960
is still a top ten pace team and a team

503
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:27,319
that also again seems to be a common team today,

504
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:31,160
like a top twenty three point attempt rate, So you know,

505
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:33,279
where do the where does the perimeter shooting kind of

506
00:24:33,279 --> 00:24:36,279
fall today? Will will be key in this game. I

507
00:24:36,279 --> 00:24:38,759
think getting up and down both teams will certainly.

508
00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:39,319
Speaker 3: Score the ball.

509
00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:43,319
Speaker 4: But there was nothing I guess actionable for me to

510
00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:45,759
play a bet on it. But I would think you see,

511
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:49,880
San Diego is certainly eager to maybe erase the bad

512
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:52,000
taste of the loss of San Diego.

513
00:24:53,319 --> 00:24:55,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, that that was a kind of a weird game

514
00:24:55,839 --> 00:24:59,240
against San Diego. That San Diego team is really just

515
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:02,000
like I can't First of all, if you want to

516
00:25:02,039 --> 00:25:03,480
talk about teams, I can't stand.

517
00:25:03,559 --> 00:25:04,799
Speaker 1: They're very much on the list.

518
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:07,400
Speaker 2: And the reason is that they've they've brought well, one,

519
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:09,920
they've burned me a couple of times. But two, they

520
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:14,640
play like they just play like one on one. It's

521
00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:18,319
really ugly. But the problem is they have a couple

522
00:25:18,319 --> 00:25:19,759
of guys that can really fill it up.

523
00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:20,960
Speaker 1: Ty Lord.

524
00:25:21,039 --> 00:25:23,240
Speaker 2: The kid that came over from I want to say,

525
00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:26,359
wake Forest, and maybe he started his career. There, They've

526
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:28,720
got a couple of guys that can can really kind

527
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:32,640
of cook one on one, and San Diego just kind

528
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:35,519
of fell into the trap almost for them, in my opinion,

529
00:25:35,559 --> 00:25:37,960
to to sort of lose that game. Not only were

530
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:41,200
they do but they also, like Lavin's kind of playing

531
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:45,839
like a very weird like zone. It's a again that

532
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:49,720
San Diego team. If you watch san Diego play, you're like,

533
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:52,640
this team's awful. I mean, they're they're there. I think

534
00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:55,119
I've seen them on multiple occasions Freddy where they went

535
00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:58,200
seven minutes without scoring a point this season because they

536
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:01,680
take bad shots. They take hard, like really tough shots,

537
00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:04,759
the shots selections not that good. But then they can

538
00:26:04,759 --> 00:26:06,880
come out and if they're having good one on one games,

539
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:10,480
they can beat a team like San Diego. Yeah, cal Polly,

540
00:26:10,559 --> 00:26:13,519
in my opinion, much more like a team oriented approach.

541
00:26:13,559 --> 00:26:16,400
But also I think U see san Diego their style

542
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:19,319
is going to play here, and I just don't know that.

543
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:21,519
I don't know that cal Poly's going to be able

544
00:26:21,559 --> 00:26:23,440
to string stops together with you.

545
00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 1: It would have to be San Diego.

546
00:26:25,799 --> 00:26:27,559
Speaker 4: I just wanted to kind of back up what I

547
00:26:27,599 --> 00:26:30,319
was suggesting at the top of my head anyway that

548
00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:32,240
this would be a high three point at ten rate.

549
00:26:32,319 --> 00:26:37,200
Both teams, I guess defensive structures certainly will allow that

550
00:26:37,519 --> 00:26:40,039
both are two hundred and nine to fifth or below

551
00:26:40,079 --> 00:26:43,799
an opponent three points attempt rate, So the three ball.

552
00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:44,599
Speaker 3: Should be flying here.

553
00:26:45,559 --> 00:26:48,240
Speaker 4: One thing I guess I also wanted to look is

554
00:26:48,319 --> 00:26:49,640
kind of how Polly.

555
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:51,960
Speaker 3: A grades out off the dribble.

556
00:26:52,279 --> 00:26:55,880
Speaker 4: This has been certain weakness for to kind of just

557
00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:58,359
look at the metrics of the UC San Diego team.

558
00:26:58,359 --> 00:26:59,160
Speaker 3: They have a lot of guys, like.

559
00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:01,119
Speaker 4: I said of con stretch of they do struggle in

560
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:05,319
space defending. They're below the thirtieth percentile and off the

561
00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:09,480
dribble defense, and Polly basically runs their offense around the

562
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:12,000
above the eighty fifth percentile and attacking off the dribble.

563
00:27:12,079 --> 00:27:15,519
So I do feel like both teams, as the total suggests,

564
00:27:15,559 --> 00:27:19,319
will score the ball probably comes down to who is

565
00:27:19,319 --> 00:27:21,359
a little bit more efficient from behind the air to

566
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:22,519
determine the cover.

567
00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, like, you know, kind of makes sense

568
00:27:28,279 --> 00:27:30,839
to like points here, but the books are doing you

569
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:34,079
no favors one seventy on the total, so you know,

570
00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:37,640
maybe maybe one, you know, maybe the best thing to

571
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:39,839
do there if you if you if you like points,

572
00:27:40,319 --> 00:27:42,160
see if you get a lull early, and maybe try

573
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:44,799
to try to play in game, because I am there

574
00:27:44,799 --> 00:27:46,640
will be points in this game at some point.

575
00:27:46,759 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 1: Can pretty much guarantee that.

576
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:51,839
Speaker 2: Yep, I think so all right, I see the chat

577
00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:53,720
this is I love when this happens. So we I

578
00:27:53,759 --> 00:27:56,720
always compliment the chat Freddy we have we have sort

579
00:27:56,759 --> 00:28:00,599
of like generated a show where the people in the

580
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:03,079
chat really no ball, and so I like to like

581
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:06,160
kind of watch what they're talking about. And I respect

582
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:08,720
the opinion of pretty much everyone that shows up on

583
00:28:08,759 --> 00:28:11,160
a regular basis, and so I love to talk about

584
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:14,839
games where there seems to be a disagreement in the chat,

585
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:15,680
right where you've got a.

586
00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:17,759
Speaker 1: Couple of guys on one side a couple on the other.

587
00:28:18,079 --> 00:28:21,720
Speaker 2: And this particular game does not surprise me at all

588
00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:24,559
that that would be the case. Cal Baptist UT Arlington.

589
00:28:25,079 --> 00:28:27,960
I can totally see where you could make a case

590
00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:30,359
for both sides. I'll go back to what I said

591
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:33,640
about cal Baptist a couple of minutes ago when we

592
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:36,319
were talking about ut we were talking about the Utah

593
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:39,799
Valley game. That was not a good matchup for in

594
00:28:39,839 --> 00:28:43,119
my opinion for Daniels and for Martel Williams to sort

595
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:47,359
of like get to the rim and create offense. And

596
00:28:47,799 --> 00:28:49,920
I think that's what cal Baptist needs to do, Like

597
00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:54,160
that is their path to like offensive success. Now, calbat

598
00:28:54,319 --> 00:28:58,039
is a very good defensive team. Arlington's not the same

599
00:28:58,119 --> 00:29:03,359
kind of offense as Utah Valley. So I'll go to

600
00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:05,240
you because I'm kind of torn on this one too.

601
00:29:05,519 --> 00:29:06,960
I feel like I can kind of make a case

602
00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:09,200
for both sides here. I also kind of think that

603
00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:11,920
this could be a slot, so you know, maybe maybe

604
00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:14,720
an under But interested to see your take on ug

605
00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:15,759
Arlington Baptist.

606
00:29:16,839 --> 00:29:20,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, Arlington is the team that I guess right now

607
00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:24,200
I'm looking to play against a little bit washed them

608
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:26,799
a little bit recently. You know, do have some nice wins.

609
00:29:26,839 --> 00:29:29,559
I think they have three or four true road wins,

610
00:29:29,559 --> 00:29:32,319
which is, you know, not easy to do in the

611
00:29:32,359 --> 00:29:36,160
non com You know, a couple of things jump out

612
00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:38,759
to me when I kind of look at whether it's

613
00:29:38,759 --> 00:29:41,279
the campom page or you know, just trying to read

614
00:29:41,319 --> 00:29:50,079
about them pop ten and offensive turnover rate, so that's.

615
00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:49,680
Speaker 3: You know, a red flag to me.

616
00:29:50,039 --> 00:29:52,039
Speaker 4: And then you look at the three point defense. I

617
00:29:52,039 --> 00:29:55,599
believe there there's still one of the tough five defenses

618
00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:58,400
in the country, holding opponents around twenty five percent from

619
00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:02,680
three credibly challenging to continue to do that over full

620
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:06,039
course of the season. Not quite sure Baptist is the

621
00:30:06,039 --> 00:30:08,440
type of offense that might bring that regression, because they're

622
00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:14,079
definitely more of a rim offense with Daniels and Williams attacking.

623
00:30:14,839 --> 00:30:20,519
But you know, it's a reason why I have some

624
00:30:20,599 --> 00:30:23,680
interest in Baptists here. I see the numbers two and

625
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:26,039
a half. I don't think I would maybe be interested

626
00:30:26,039 --> 00:30:27,799
in that, but it might be a spot that I'd

627
00:30:27,839 --> 00:30:30,680
try and jump in live, like at a money line.

628
00:30:31,319 --> 00:30:33,160
I guess when I look at both structures here, Rick

629
00:30:33,279 --> 00:30:38,400
Roy is very similar to what Saint Mary's plays drop

630
00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:42,440
coverage and Arlington's. You know, off the dribble metrics aren't

631
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:45,119
aren't fantastic. I believe they're below the tenth percentile and

632
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:48,559
offensive efficiency off the dribbles. What that defense will give

633
00:30:48,599 --> 00:30:51,839
you each you know, you look on the other side

634
00:30:51,839 --> 00:30:55,079
with Daniels, as I mentioned earlier, I think this profiles

635
00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:56,559
is a much more friendly of your matchup.

636
00:30:57,279 --> 00:30:58,640
Speaker 3: I think they go from kind of.

637
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:02,200
Speaker 4: Utah Valley's top thirty in height to I think Arlington

638
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:06,160
is generally I looked earlier like two eighty or something

639
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:08,079
like that. So again going back to the point about

640
00:31:08,079 --> 00:31:13,759
finishing oversize on these pull up jumpers floaters, if you will,

641
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:18,319
I think it just profiles as a better matchup for him.

642
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:19,839
Speaker 3: I never really know.

643
00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:22,839
Speaker 4: I guess Turner, the Arlington coach, does like to mix

644
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:25,359
in some zone two, which I think might be a

645
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:26,960
way to go. And I don't know kind of what

646
00:31:27,039 --> 00:31:29,039
his game plan is, which is to my point about

647
00:31:29,039 --> 00:31:30,640
maybe one to watch this one a little bit to

648
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:33,359
see how to flow the game goes.

649
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:36,200
Speaker 3: But on the surface, I like Baptists.

650
00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 4: You know, they're a good two way rebounding team, which

651
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:42,440
I think takes away a strength of ut Arlington. And

652
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:45,400
then the two you know red flags for me, the

653
00:31:45,799 --> 00:31:49,240
high offensive turnover rate in a game that figures to

654
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:52,599
be decided in the margins, and the you know, the

655
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:54,400
regression that I think is going to happen at some

656
00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:59,079
point with that twenty four three point shooting defense. And

657
00:31:59,119 --> 00:32:01,039
I just had Baptist rated higher personally.

658
00:32:01,119 --> 00:32:03,079
Speaker 1: So yeah, I.

659
00:32:03,319 --> 00:32:06,559
Speaker 3: Haven't played it yet, but it's gonna be one.

660
00:32:06,599 --> 00:32:08,079
Speaker 4: I think I have a close eye on today, I'd

661
00:32:08,119 --> 00:32:12,319
like to kind of maybe get my get some access

662
00:32:12,359 --> 00:32:13,759
to that game, not a two and a half. I

663
00:32:13,839 --> 00:32:15,680
just feel like it's it could be, like you said,

664
00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:19,759
a very defensive minded game. So I'd rather just have

665
00:32:19,839 --> 00:32:21,759
a money line of sorts and don't really want to

666
00:32:21,799 --> 00:32:23,480
pay the juice that is that there now.

667
00:32:25,079 --> 00:32:27,599
Speaker 2: Yeah, I kind of said maybe an under, but I

668
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:30,759
where that total is. I don't think you're getting much

669
00:32:30,839 --> 00:32:33,200
value there. I think the I think the books pretty

670
00:32:33,279 --> 00:32:36,240
much know that both of these teams can defend. You know,

671
00:32:36,319 --> 00:32:39,599
they did the the three the three hundred and thirty

672
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:43,240
eighth rate national three point rate for Arlington is glaring.

673
00:32:44,039 --> 00:32:47,519
You know, neither team plays super fast, like you know,

674
00:32:47,599 --> 00:32:49,519
Dan Daniels is going to get the ball, He's going

675
00:32:49,599 --> 00:32:53,200
to patrol a little bit. He's totally fine like running

676
00:32:53,319 --> 00:32:56,039
twenty twenty five seconds off the shot clock and trying

677
00:32:56,039 --> 00:32:58,799
to take someone off the dribbles. So again, I guess

678
00:32:58,839 --> 00:33:01,759
I would not really or anyone toward the total at

679
00:33:01,759 --> 00:33:06,960
that number, Like like my number here is is pick

680
00:33:07,079 --> 00:33:09,000
like pretty much on the nose, which I guess would

681
00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:11,720
suggest value at the current number of plus two and

682
00:33:11,759 --> 00:33:14,200
a half with Arlington, But I share a lot of

683
00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:18,160
the same sentiments you do, where it's like I've watched

684
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:20,519
this Arlington team play a bit that the turnovers are

685
00:33:20,599 --> 00:33:23,839
are are probably the most glaring thing for me. And

686
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:26,960
you know, Baptists, they they can defend like they get

687
00:33:27,039 --> 00:33:30,240
up in your shorts. Defensively, They've got like, you know,

688
00:33:30,359 --> 00:33:33,119
good those guards are really good at both ends of

689
00:33:33,119 --> 00:33:36,519
the floor, Daniel. They're just scrappy like that. This Baptist

690
00:33:36,519 --> 00:33:39,279
team is scrappy. And that's that's right here, Freddie. Is

691
00:33:39,279 --> 00:33:42,119
is why I'm so interested in watching this this league

692
00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:46,079
in particular this year, because like this is a great

693
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:50,000
uh stop like matchup right here. Valley versus Tarleton is

694
00:33:50,039 --> 00:33:52,880
like a really like, you know, tough nut to crack

695
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:55,079
if you will. And these teams are gonna all probably

696
00:33:55,079 --> 00:33:58,559
play three times, could be four times once you get

697
00:33:58,599 --> 00:34:02,440
to the Whack tournament, so I'll likely be watching this one.

698
00:34:02,559 --> 00:34:05,160
But I'm kind of with you my gut, which is

699
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:07,480
harder to put a number two. My gut says back

700
00:34:07,599 --> 00:34:09,679
just bounces back from the loss and takes.

701
00:34:09,519 --> 00:34:13,519
Speaker 4: Time for me when you get into these pickum type games.

702
00:34:13,559 --> 00:34:15,559
Because the line suggests I think it opened a pick

703
00:34:15,599 --> 00:34:19,239
and maybe a Baptists taking a little money. It's the

704
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:22,480
margins that I guess you try and project to potentially

705
00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:25,639
could create more shots. And again it comes back to

706
00:34:25,679 --> 00:34:28,880
the high offensive turnover rate for Arlington and you know

707
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:31,880
nice two way rebounding that I believe looking at it

708
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:34,920
here now, Baptist is plus fifteen per one hundred possessions

709
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:38,280
in rebound rates, so that should probably.

710
00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:41,960
Speaker 3: Project to three four more field goal attempts.

711
00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:44,039
Speaker 4: You know, the drop covers does a little bit better

712
00:34:44,119 --> 00:34:48,039
job on there, and that preventing free throws, whereas Arlington

713
00:34:48,159 --> 00:34:51,639
has been a little bit rechhappy and a high free

714
00:34:51,639 --> 00:34:53,800
throw rate against. So these are all kinds of things

715
00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:57,559
that you know, make me lean toward Baptists bouncing back

716
00:34:57,559 --> 00:35:01,519
off Utah Valley loss. But again, my number is only two,

717
00:35:01,639 --> 00:35:05,880
so not enough to bet it now, but it will

718
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:07,679
be one that I want to watch early to see

719
00:35:07,679 --> 00:35:10,639
if but perhaps I can get some access to it.

720
00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:16,039
Speaker 2: And Steve dukay, yeah, listen, don't take bad numbers. I

721
00:35:16,079 --> 00:35:19,360
think if you know he says, watch Baptist win by one, sure,

722
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:22,079
just money line it, I would I would not advise

723
00:35:22,159 --> 00:35:23,320
laying the two and a half when you could have

724
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:23,760
had picked.

725
00:35:24,199 --> 00:35:26,159
Speaker 1: I would just play a little smaller and bet the money.

726
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:27,760
Speaker 3: Yeah.

727
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:30,840
Speaker 4: My my strategy for that sometimes is to just bet

728
00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:35,000
a flat unit. Obviously, if it's like minus one forty

729
00:35:35,079 --> 00:35:36,760
or something, I guess that would be the.

730
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:39,320
Speaker 3: Kind of how it would be lined.

731
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 4: If it's two and a half, instead of laying one forty,

732
00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:44,400
I'd just play one unit and accept winning less or

733
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:45,079
at least just.

734
00:35:45,119 --> 00:35:45,880
Speaker 3: Losing a unit.

735
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:47,519
Speaker 4: And that way, you know, if you don't want to

736
00:35:47,559 --> 00:35:50,480
bother with the watching it live, or you can't watch

737
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:52,280
it live, or you can't bet live, then at least

738
00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:55,519
you have the side you want, just accept winning.

739
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:55,880
Speaker 3: A little bit less.

740
00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:59,960
Speaker 1: I suppose, all right, you know what you know?

741
00:36:00,039 --> 00:36:02,679
Speaker 2: Oh, I know folks are are still in bed and

742
00:36:03,119 --> 00:36:06,360
probably gonna probably be watching this game or watching this

743
00:36:06,159 --> 00:36:10,679
this show on demand is almost always the chat is

744
00:36:10,719 --> 00:36:14,039
clamoring for the early tip, the early game, and I

745
00:36:14,079 --> 00:36:16,880
haven't seen much of it, but I know people are

746
00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:19,800
probably gonna probably gonna roll in twelve o'clock looking for

747
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:22,880
some of the one o'clock tips. So dealer's choice to you, Freddy,

748
00:36:23,039 --> 00:36:27,519
there is there are three line four line games that

749
00:36:27,639 --> 00:36:30,920
tip off at one pm Eastern today, your choice. Pick

750
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:33,039
one of them, and let's talk about that one.

751
00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:37,119
Speaker 3: Yeah, Sanford VMI is one of those.

752
00:36:37,199 --> 00:36:39,320
Speaker 1: Yes, but yeah Sandford VM.

753
00:36:39,400 --> 00:36:44,519
Speaker 2: I on one cam down down at VM I.

754
00:36:43,559 --> 00:36:45,519
Speaker 4: I see this one has moved a bit. But I

755
00:36:45,559 --> 00:36:47,880
did bet Sandford minus four and a half. I think

756
00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:51,960
minus one fifteen a couple hours back. I guess a

757
00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:55,639
few reasons for me. I look at Sanford's rating right now,

758
00:36:55,679 --> 00:36:57,880
I believe I look this morning, I think they're two

759
00:36:57,960 --> 00:37:00,320
hundred and forty first at CAMPOM and I felt like

760
00:37:00,480 --> 00:37:04,079
that's that's now sixty point dropped from where they were

761
00:37:04,199 --> 00:37:06,639
at the start of the year. Personally, I feel like

762
00:37:06,679 --> 00:37:10,039
it's their role point, Like I have them being able

763
00:37:10,079 --> 00:37:13,400
now to maybe get back to the two hundred is strange.

764
00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:16,480
So I guess based on my assessment of the team

765
00:37:16,519 --> 00:37:17,960
and the where they are in the A market, I

766
00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:21,880
felt like this was kind of buying the basement value price.

767
00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:26,559
Then when I look at schematics here, Sanford's new coach,

768
00:37:26,599 --> 00:37:31,280
I believe came from Liftscomb Leney Accruff and runs the

769
00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:33,599
same type of offense, high post motion. If you look at

770
00:37:34,599 --> 00:37:36,280
you know, if you if you haven't watched them play,

771
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:38,360
if you just look at their metrics on Hoop Explorer,

772
00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:41,960
it's a very high inside out rate of offense flowing

773
00:37:42,039 --> 00:37:44,760
through the high post looking to free up shooters on

774
00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:47,559
the perimeter. Then if you look at how VMI has

775
00:37:47,599 --> 00:37:51,199
guarded that they're one of the worst defenses in the country,

776
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:57,199
under the first percentile in inside out defensive efficiency. So

777
00:37:57,280 --> 00:37:59,599
I kind of like that on the surface, Stanford's three

778
00:37:59,639 --> 00:38:03,199
point percentich has been you know, I guess a lot

779
00:38:03,199 --> 00:38:06,800
of the offensive metrics don't suggest that there's much room

780
00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:09,840
for I guess positive aggression, but I do feel like

781
00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:11,719
they are getting good looks, so I guess we'll see

782
00:38:12,440 --> 00:38:15,320
vm I, on the other hand, is a driving kick offense.

783
00:38:15,599 --> 00:38:19,119
I believe they're above the ninety fifth percent and driving

784
00:38:19,199 --> 00:38:21,119
kick rate. And you know, if you look at what

785
00:38:21,199 --> 00:38:24,320
Sanford's done this year, they're allowing catch and shoots at

786
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:26,079
one of the lowest rates in the country. So I

787
00:38:26,119 --> 00:38:29,159
do feel like they have the ability to, you know,

788
00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:30,760
limit what VMI wants to do.

789
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:35,159
Speaker 3: You know, the number for me at four and a.

790
00:38:35,159 --> 00:38:39,800
Speaker 4: Half again, I made it seven, So I guess America

791
00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:45,079
has moved in that direction. Eighty seventy three Sandford for me,

792
00:38:45,199 --> 00:38:47,559
So it was one of these ones I guess where

793
00:38:47,840 --> 00:38:50,559
there was a combination of liking the schematics and liking

794
00:38:51,599 --> 00:38:52,280
or projecting.

795
00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:52,719
Speaker 3: I guess.

796
00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:54,519
Speaker 4: I guess we'll see if I'm right that this is

797
00:38:54,559 --> 00:38:56,760
the low point for Sanford, and a win today might

798
00:38:56,920 --> 00:38:59,159
see them go from to forty one to maybe to

799
00:38:59,199 --> 00:38:59,800
thirty five.

800
00:38:59,840 --> 00:39:02,000
Speaker 3: You going to get a big bump beating vm I

801
00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:02,360
if they do.

802
00:39:02,480 --> 00:39:05,079
Speaker 4: But I felt like a couple of losses they had

803
00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:08,719
over the last month really created their I guess metrics.

804
00:39:09,599 --> 00:39:11,159
And you know, if you look at some of the

805
00:39:11,559 --> 00:39:15,599
splits in those games, you know, I don't necessarily think

806
00:39:15,599 --> 00:39:17,920
they were as bad as as some of those losses

807
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:21,639
played out. They played some good halfs, just had you know,

808
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:24,280
VCU I think comes to mind where they gave them

809
00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:26,880
a run for maybe twenty minutes and then kind of

810
00:39:27,800 --> 00:39:31,159
caved in. But yeah, so Sanford's play for me, and

811
00:39:32,239 --> 00:39:34,519
I guess we'll see if I'm right in a few hours.

812
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:38,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't argue with Sanford. So so one thing

813
00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:41,639
I'll add to this. You know, if you if I don't,

814
00:39:41,679 --> 00:39:44,400
if you if you don't watch much vm I basketball,

815
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:48,320
which I expect not everyone does, this is one of

816
00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:51,440
those places where if you ever watched the game, there's

817
00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:54,000
not going to be many people in the civilian section,

818
00:39:54,519 --> 00:39:58,840
but then the students because it's a military institute similar

819
00:39:58,880 --> 00:40:02,119
to Army, Navy, and and you know the military academies,

820
00:40:02,159 --> 00:40:05,760
Like I do think there is a requirement for them

821
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:08,079
to go and support Like I do think there's like

822
00:40:08,159 --> 00:40:09,199
some sort of requirement.

823
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:09,440
Speaker 3: Now.

824
00:40:09,599 --> 00:40:10,480
Speaker 1: The reason I bring.

825
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:15,119
Speaker 2: That up, Freddy is they actually they bring it at

826
00:40:15,440 --> 00:40:18,440
VMI is the student section is always packed out and

827
00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:21,320
they're loud, and they you know, they'll have their they'll

828
00:40:21,320 --> 00:40:25,000
have their army. What do the pants on with like

829
00:40:25,079 --> 00:40:29,719
the red just like the red student section shirt. Kids

830
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:32,639
don't get back till January twelfth, and and you know,

831
00:40:32,679 --> 00:40:35,360
you talk about putting Stamford on the road, and clearly

832
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:38,079
this number, at least where it opens, at least where

833
00:40:38,119 --> 00:40:40,960
you got it, you know, is reflective of some home

834
00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:43,440
core edge for vm I I think you got to

835
00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:45,920
take it out of the equation here until the students

836
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:48,079
are back. So yeah, I thought the number was a

837
00:40:48,119 --> 00:40:50,840
little bit low. Didn't play it myself, but I kind

838
00:40:50,840 --> 00:40:52,920
of wish I did, because it looks like this one

839
00:40:53,039 --> 00:40:55,559
is gone from looks like we're at like six and

840
00:40:55,599 --> 00:40:56,639
a half now, am I am?

841
00:40:56,719 --> 00:40:58,559
Speaker 1: I correct in saying that, yeah.

842
00:40:59,119 --> 00:41:02,239
Speaker 3: Before I started talking about it.

843
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:05,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's taken a little bit of action, I guess

844
00:41:06,119 --> 00:41:07,599
over the last hour or two.

845
00:41:09,760 --> 00:41:12,079
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I would have to agree there.

846
00:41:12,239 --> 00:41:17,599
Speaker 2: I just you know, for me, I haven't you know,

847
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:19,320
VMI is one of those teams that I think has

848
00:41:19,360 --> 00:41:22,119
been kind of undervalued in recent years. But I my

849
00:41:22,199 --> 00:41:25,079
buddy Aaron Kidd lives in Virginia and this is on

850
00:41:25,119 --> 00:41:28,000
our list of like I'll usually go down and hang

851
00:41:28,039 --> 00:41:30,559
with him at least once a year and we'll hit like,

852
00:41:30,639 --> 00:41:31,360
you know, whatever we.

853
00:41:31,239 --> 00:41:33,519
Speaker 1: Can hit in in his area.

854
00:41:33,519 --> 00:41:35,400
Speaker 2: And I know he's kind of been like way ahead

855
00:41:35,440 --> 00:41:37,400
of the curve on like vm I being better than

856
00:41:37,400 --> 00:41:37,880
the market.

857
00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:40,440
Speaker 1: And we were just talking the other day that maybe,

858
00:41:41,039 --> 00:41:41,960
you know, maybe.

859
00:41:41,679 --> 00:41:44,960
Speaker 2: That expired because last year they were a big time

860
00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:47,679
overachiever against the number. Maybe even a little bit earlier

861
00:41:47,719 --> 00:41:51,280
this year, I think what one comes to mind, they

862
00:41:51,360 --> 00:41:54,079
backdoor to number against someone. I think it might have

863
00:41:54,119 --> 00:41:57,039
been Buffalo, but I think they did have some covers

864
00:41:57,079 --> 00:42:00,920
earlier this year might have inflated their their profile a

865
00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:02,599
little bit. They're still at the bottom of this league

866
00:42:02,639 --> 00:42:04,559
and Sanford is still very good. So yeah, I'm with

867
00:42:04,679 --> 00:42:10,239
you to the with the Sanford Lean right there. Yeah,

868
00:42:10,400 --> 00:42:13,239
someone in the chat. Yeah, Keith, Keith Bayu Bets. Landry

869
00:42:13,280 --> 00:42:15,400
is is my buddy, Keith. He's always here.

870
00:42:15,599 --> 00:42:17,519
Speaker 1: He must be. He must have went hard last night.

871
00:42:17,559 --> 00:42:18,199
I mean he's down.

872
00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:23,039
Speaker 2: He lives like twenty minutes outside of New Orleans, so

873
00:42:23,079 --> 00:42:25,400
he who knows, he could have he could have hit

874
00:42:25,480 --> 00:42:27,440
the French Quarter or something last night.

875
00:42:27,480 --> 00:42:27,920
Speaker 1: We don't know.

876
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:30,320
Speaker 2: But he also hasn't texted me yet this morning, so

877
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:31,760
I think he's probably sleeping.

878
00:42:32,039 --> 00:42:33,639
Speaker 3: My phone's some pretty quiet as well. I have a

879
00:42:33,679 --> 00:42:37,239
lot of friends just probably rolling in now a big knife.

880
00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:41,480
Speaker 2: But but so Freddie, uh, it's it's We've got about

881
00:42:41,480 --> 00:42:45,320
fifteen minutes left and on this show, I'll give you

882
00:42:45,480 --> 00:42:47,079
a second to think about it. But on this show,

883
00:42:47,119 --> 00:42:50,559
we lock in a it's a two team parlay if

884
00:42:50,599 --> 00:42:52,360
we if we have three people on, we go three

885
00:42:52,400 --> 00:42:54,639
team or it's sort of like what we do in

886
00:42:54,679 --> 00:42:58,000
place of like best Bets. We track it and we're

887
00:42:58,000 --> 00:43:00,239
on a nice little run. We used to have three

888
00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:03,239
hosts on the show. Now we have two, and since

889
00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:05,679
we've gone down to the two teamers, we're kind of hot.

890
00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:09,920
We are are back, I believe for the season. The

891
00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:13,840
parlay is now plus five point one six units. Any

892
00:43:14,159 --> 00:43:16,400
anytime you can bet parlays and you're you're in the plus.

893
00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:18,719
That's pretty good. So basically, for if you were to

894
00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:21,039
bet them equally for every dollar, if you were to

895
00:43:21,079 --> 00:43:22,840
put a dollar on each of them, you'd be up

896
00:43:22,880 --> 00:43:26,280
five dollars in sixteen cents. We don't attach unit rating cities,

897
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:29,239
but but that is sort of what we do on

898
00:43:29,280 --> 00:43:31,639
the show. So I am gonna give a game out

899
00:43:31,719 --> 00:43:34,360
right now. I'll propose a game. I'm gonna give my

900
00:43:34,519 --> 00:43:37,159
leg out right now, and then I'll let you do

901
00:43:37,280 --> 00:43:39,920
the same. It can be something we've already talked about.

902
00:43:39,920 --> 00:43:42,960
But if if it's something we haven't talked about, you know,

903
00:43:43,039 --> 00:43:46,800
you'll have the pick on the next game. Yeah, I'm

904
00:43:46,800 --> 00:43:51,039
gonna lay it here with Montana, they are at home

905
00:43:51,079 --> 00:43:52,360
against Northern Arizona.

906
00:43:53,159 --> 00:43:55,920
Speaker 1: I just don't agree with this move.

907
00:43:57,320 --> 00:44:00,440
Speaker 2: You know, listen, could Montana like a move like that?

908
00:44:00,599 --> 00:44:03,840
Maybe someone is out like it's possible, like that's that's

909
00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:08,400
down from I thought the opener of seven. I mean,

910
00:44:08,679 --> 00:44:13,079
my where I have this now. I'm very out on NAU.

911
00:44:13,199 --> 00:44:16,760
I think NAU is a bad basketball team. I'm actually

912
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:20,079
surprised at how good of a non con that they had,

913
00:44:21,159 --> 00:44:24,760
beating teams like cal Poly, Uh Southeast, So you know,

914
00:44:25,039 --> 00:44:26,400
beating cal Poly and Simo.

915
00:44:26,480 --> 00:44:30,039
Speaker 1: I believe those were both a mte.

916
00:44:29,360 --> 00:44:32,719
Speaker 2: That they hosted and they specifically, I remember this now,

917
00:44:33,000 --> 00:44:35,800
put both of those teams in like a back to

918
00:44:35,840 --> 00:44:37,760
back when they played them. Like you want to talk

919
00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:41,840
about home cooking, Freddy. They put cal Poly and Simo

920
00:44:42,280 --> 00:44:45,239
in a back to back and gave themselves a day

921
00:44:45,280 --> 00:44:46,639
off in between the two games.

922
00:44:47,280 --> 00:44:51,159
Speaker 1: So those are two wins. Southern Utah.

923
00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:53,599
Speaker 2: We talked about the WHACK being a very competitive league

924
00:44:53,639 --> 00:44:55,360
this year. I would say Southern Utah is probably the

925
00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:57,840
worst of the seven teams in the WHAC. That's another win.

926
00:44:58,320 --> 00:45:00,679
And then they you know they've got they've got three

927
00:45:00,800 --> 00:45:06,000
wins over non non board teams, non D one teams. Again,

928
00:45:06,039 --> 00:45:07,840
I'll go back to like I I just think that

929
00:45:07,920 --> 00:45:12,800
you know, they lose Taut to Notre Dame. I believe

930
00:45:13,119 --> 00:45:18,239
he was the just an absolute beast rebounder. What I

931
00:45:18,280 --> 00:45:21,480
believe he led this conference in rebounding last year. And

932
00:45:22,559 --> 00:45:25,079
why can I not remember the kid's name is escaping me.

933
00:45:25,119 --> 00:45:26,719
He's like the he I think he would ended up

934
00:45:26,760 --> 00:45:30,000
being like the leading scorer in the history of the program.

935
00:45:30,239 --> 00:45:32,679
Speaker 3: Jayden was a Cohen or something.

936
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:36,519
Speaker 1: Tris trist something started with a T. His name is

937
00:45:36,519 --> 00:45:37,280
on the tip of my tongue.

938
00:45:37,320 --> 00:45:40,920
Speaker 2: That anyway, you know, last year, that team should have

939
00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:43,199
been awesome with those two guys in the league, like

940
00:45:43,239 --> 00:45:45,960
the Big Sky, they should have been great, and I

941
00:45:45,960 --> 00:45:48,440
felt like I was high on them. I actually went

942
00:45:48,760 --> 00:45:50,880
to Flagstaff last year. I got to see a Northern

943
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:53,440
Arizona game, and so I followed them closely, and I

944
00:45:53,480 --> 00:45:56,480
could not help but think that that coaching staff cost

945
00:45:56,519 --> 00:46:00,760
them five or six games, just poor game plans, poor

946
00:46:00,840 --> 00:46:05,000
execution late that I put on the staff more than anything.

947
00:46:05,760 --> 00:46:08,599
They did not replace the leading rebounder in the league

948
00:46:08,679 --> 00:46:10,559
and one of the top scorers in the history of

949
00:46:10,559 --> 00:46:14,599
their program. So for me, I'm very much out on

950
00:46:14,599 --> 00:46:17,119
the Lumberjacks. They are very much a fade for me

951
00:46:17,519 --> 00:46:21,440
in almost any scenario coming into conference play. And even

952
00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:24,519
if Montana, like even if this move were injury related

953
00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:27,599
and they were to show up without someone, I don't

954
00:46:27,639 --> 00:46:31,559
know that there's someone that's worth three points on Montana's roster.

955
00:46:31,760 --> 00:46:35,079
Speaker 1: So this number is way too small in my opinion.

956
00:46:35,199 --> 00:46:36,920
Speaker 2: I am going to take the I'm gonna lay a

957
00:46:36,960 --> 00:46:39,920
four and a half with the Montana Grizzlies here. That'll

958
00:46:39,920 --> 00:46:43,239
be my parlay lake. It's in Montana. I think this

959
00:46:43,320 --> 00:46:44,840
is a tough spot for North Yeah.

960
00:46:44,880 --> 00:46:48,480
Speaker 3: Usually a tough tough spot to play, so definitely interesting.

961
00:46:48,519 --> 00:46:50,480
I didn't just listen to what you're saying.

962
00:46:50,519 --> 00:46:53,639
Speaker 4: I was looking at the number, and yeah, it has

963
00:46:53,639 --> 00:46:56,760
come down from seven I saw earlier and I was

964
00:46:56,840 --> 00:46:57,199
kind of.

965
00:46:57,199 --> 00:47:01,360
Speaker 3: Even thinking about that. But interesting, that would be. I

966
00:47:01,400 --> 00:47:03,800
think I see like fives and stuff in the market now.

967
00:47:03,719 --> 00:47:05,920
Speaker 4: So I might have to dig a little bit, but

968
00:47:06,000 --> 00:47:07,760
I can't. I can't disagree with anything you said.

969
00:47:07,800 --> 00:47:11,039
Speaker 2: So yeah, I was just going through my notes here

970
00:47:11,079 --> 00:47:15,199
to Yeah, so I made this number nine point two.

971
00:47:15,599 --> 00:47:19,679
I've got Montana minus nine point two here, So I

972
00:47:20,000 --> 00:47:23,119
actually showed value against the opener and the fact this

973
00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:26,119
is you know that MGM minus four and a half

974
00:47:26,159 --> 00:47:29,719
caesars minus four and a half. That three sixty five

975
00:47:29,840 --> 00:47:31,960
is basically minus four and a half. It looks like

976
00:47:32,000 --> 00:47:36,519
four juice. So again, that type of activity tells me

977
00:47:36,599 --> 00:47:39,559
someone is probably out. But I'm here to say I

978
00:47:39,599 --> 00:47:42,119
don't think it matters. And Penny for what it's worth

979
00:47:42,159 --> 00:47:44,599
is sitting there at five. So they might want the north.

980
00:47:44,639 --> 00:47:47,440
Maybe they want the northern Arizona money. But but yeah,

981
00:47:47,519 --> 00:47:50,360
that's my parlay. Lake Montana minus four and a half

982
00:47:50,800 --> 00:47:52,920
very good, I think.

983
00:47:52,760 --> 00:47:55,440
Speaker 1: All right, yeah, go ahead.

984
00:47:56,199 --> 00:47:57,360
Speaker 3: I think I'll go Queen's.

985
00:47:58,920 --> 00:48:00,960
Speaker 4: I don't know what it is now, four and a half.

986
00:48:01,039 --> 00:48:05,599
Five Queens is at home tonight. I think the Eastern Kentucky,

987
00:48:06,599 --> 00:48:10,280
which will be a very hot variance game given you know,

988
00:48:10,440 --> 00:48:17,239
a sun pace threes everything that that provides. I look

989
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:22,239
at Queens and they they finished off kind of the

990
00:48:22,239 --> 00:48:25,519
the break, I believe, with some challenging games. I want

991
00:48:25,559 --> 00:48:27,199
to say at the top of my head it was Wake,

992
00:48:29,199 --> 00:48:32,360
Auburn and another SEC team like so they lost three

993
00:48:32,360 --> 00:48:34,280
in a row coming into this one, I believe. I

994
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:38,280
don't think they played a non board game, and I

995
00:48:38,280 --> 00:48:40,800
guess when I immediately looked at I wouldn't expect them

996
00:48:40,800 --> 00:48:41,199
to win.

997
00:48:41,360 --> 00:48:42,320
Speaker 3: Those games anyway.

998
00:48:42,639 --> 00:48:45,559
Speaker 4: I looked at some of the shooting splits from those games.

999
00:48:46,079 --> 00:48:49,480
They I believe, we're shooting twenty eight percent from three.

1000
00:48:49,599 --> 00:48:52,039
The three opponents shot greater than fifty percent from three.

1001
00:48:52,079 --> 00:48:55,280
So right right away, I kind of, you know, think

1002
00:48:55,320 --> 00:48:55,920
that kind.

1003
00:48:55,719 --> 00:48:57,920
Speaker 3: Of evens out this time of year.

1004
00:48:57,960 --> 00:49:01,360
Speaker 4: I like to I guess ice late how teams perform

1005
00:49:01,519 --> 00:49:05,800
maybe against teams of the similar ability, similar levels. So

1006
00:49:05,880 --> 00:49:09,679
I look at this game, I isolated quad three and

1007
00:49:09,760 --> 00:49:12,920
four performance or teams kind of in that you know,

1008
00:49:13,039 --> 00:49:18,519
two twenty five to onward range, and Queens in in

1009
00:49:18,599 --> 00:49:23,280
that kind of competition, has a top sixty offense with

1010
00:49:23,360 --> 00:49:26,079
a net two point percentage of nine h e k

1011
00:49:26,239 --> 00:49:29,000
U is three hundred and second in defensive efficiency in

1012
00:49:29,039 --> 00:49:34,960
that same kind of subsetting of teams, and I like Queen's.

1013
00:49:34,639 --> 00:49:35,119
Speaker 3: Like at home.

1014
00:49:35,119 --> 00:49:38,280
Speaker 4: I believe this year at home four to zero, shooting

1015
00:49:38,280 --> 00:49:42,840
the ball really well. Shot volume metrics are really strong

1016
00:49:42,880 --> 00:49:46,159
at home. You know, they're they're very kind of fun

1017
00:49:46,199 --> 00:49:48,159
team to watch, a lot of kind of off ball motion,

1018
00:49:49,559 --> 00:49:51,119
cutting screening away from the ball.

1019
00:49:51,159 --> 00:49:54,119
Speaker 3: They're going to produce a high three point rate. E

1020
00:49:54,199 --> 00:49:55,199
KU is allowing.

1021
00:49:55,519 --> 00:49:57,519
Speaker 4: I believe they're outside the top two hundred and opponent

1022
00:49:57,519 --> 00:49:59,760
three point scoring rate, so they will give some looks there.

1023
00:50:00,239 --> 00:50:01,679
Speaker 3: And there've been a little bit of a different team

1024
00:50:01,679 --> 00:50:01,960
this year.

1025
00:50:02,000 --> 00:50:04,559
Speaker 4: Obviously had some personnel losses, but they're not creating the

1026
00:50:04,559 --> 00:50:06,719
same havoc and turnovers as they had in the past.

1027
00:50:07,960 --> 00:50:08,840
Speaker 3: I guess my one.

1028
00:50:08,679 --> 00:50:12,480
Speaker 4: Worry is EKU probably profiles to maybe create some second

1029
00:50:12,559 --> 00:50:14,079
chances with their offensive rebounding.

1030
00:50:14,159 --> 00:50:16,599
Speaker 3: That's been a weakness of Queens.

1031
00:50:18,280 --> 00:50:21,320
Speaker 4: But again, the matchup wise, and the last thing, I

1032
00:50:21,599 --> 00:50:24,559
feel like Queens really gets cooking when they can run

1033
00:50:24,559 --> 00:50:28,880
and transition. There are none plus percent transition rate team

1034
00:50:28,920 --> 00:50:31,559
with a high efficiency, and if you look at EKU,

1035
00:50:32,199 --> 00:50:35,039
they're allowing transition chances above the ninety percent. So I

1036
00:50:35,079 --> 00:50:36,800
think Queens will be able to play their game at home.

1037
00:50:37,719 --> 00:50:41,400
Don't love laying you know five, I guess we'll call

1038
00:50:41,400 --> 00:50:43,519
it or I'm not quite sure what it is there

1039
00:50:43,559 --> 00:50:47,159
now in a game that probably brings so much variance,

1040
00:50:47,159 --> 00:50:48,639
but I think it's a good spot for them getting

1041
00:50:48,639 --> 00:50:51,960
back to the home court in a game, I think

1042
00:50:51,960 --> 00:50:54,159
they'll be able to comfortably play their style. And I'm

1043
00:50:54,239 --> 00:50:56,039
kind of down on EKU this year. So I know

1044
00:50:56,079 --> 00:50:59,440
they had some injuries in the non com but I

1045
00:50:59,440 --> 00:51:02,559
feel like, are you know, traditionally been a solid club.

1046
00:51:03,079 --> 00:51:04,960
I think they're not quite the same level this year.

1047
00:51:07,559 --> 00:51:07,760
Speaker 1: Now.

1048
00:51:07,840 --> 00:51:11,440
Speaker 2: I apologize for not for the lack of eye contact

1049
00:51:11,480 --> 00:51:16,159
right there, Freddie. We updated our back end to how

1050
00:51:16,199 --> 00:51:19,320
we enter plays and I used to. I used to

1051
00:51:19,360 --> 00:51:21,519
be able to do it in my sleep, and and

1052
00:51:21,559 --> 00:51:23,599
you know, I'm I'll just get let you in on

1053
00:51:23,679 --> 00:51:26,920
something I don't like change. I'm very resistant to change,

1054
00:51:27,039 --> 00:51:29,440
if you if if I'm doing something the same way

1055
00:51:29,679 --> 00:51:31,800
for a long period of time and someone changes it,

1056
00:51:31,880 --> 00:51:35,360
I am, I am like not mister adapt to change.

1057
00:51:35,400 --> 00:51:38,760
I want it, you know, if like I was, I

1058
00:51:38,800 --> 00:51:41,199
was probably I was one of like the last of

1059
00:51:41,199 --> 00:51:42,960
my friends to get an iPhone back in the day,

1060
00:51:43,039 --> 00:51:45,239
right like I was, just like you know, used to

1061
00:51:45,320 --> 00:51:47,400
the T nine texting if you will. The point is,

1062
00:51:48,400 --> 00:51:51,000
it's just I wanted to get Montana in because I

1063
00:51:51,039 --> 00:51:52,880
was worried that there might be some buyback. It looks

1064
00:51:52,920 --> 00:51:56,559
like that might be the case, and I think I

1065
00:51:56,599 --> 00:51:59,519
hopefully hopefully I did. I mean, I was trying to

1066
00:51:59,519 --> 00:52:02,920
do it here quickly and it is very very challenging

1067
00:52:02,960 --> 00:52:06,000
to do so. So anyway, I will update that I

1068
00:52:06,079 --> 00:52:08,360
gave Montana is going to be a client play.

1069
00:52:08,840 --> 00:52:12,920
Speaker 1: I gave it out at minus five to clients.

1070
00:52:12,360 --> 00:52:16,000
Speaker 2: And I think I think that'll be the fair number

1071
00:52:16,039 --> 00:52:17,920
for our for our parlay on that game.

1072
00:52:18,480 --> 00:52:20,880
Speaker 1: Freddy, did you have a number for that Queen's Game?

1073
00:52:21,199 --> 00:52:22,719
Speaker 2: Let me let me pull up the odds because I

1074
00:52:22,719 --> 00:52:26,400
want to make sure we're we'll officially lock it in.

1075
00:52:26,679 --> 00:52:30,880
Speaker 4: Pinnacle at minus five I think three six, five. Earlier

1076
00:52:30,920 --> 00:52:33,920
this morning was at four and a half minus one fifteen.

1077
00:52:34,280 --> 00:52:37,039
I think they're up to five now. It seems I

1078
00:52:37,079 --> 00:52:40,360
look at kind of different odd screen here. It seems

1079
00:52:40,400 --> 00:52:45,559
like five across the board. Yes, five, fair five and

1080
00:52:45,559 --> 00:52:47,760
a half at super Book maybe, but I think five.

1081
00:52:47,840 --> 00:52:50,159
Speaker 3: It would be Attaina.

1082
00:52:50,719 --> 00:52:51,760
Speaker 1: Caesars has a five.

1083
00:52:51,840 --> 00:52:53,840
Speaker 2: You can actually still there's some Juice four and a

1084
00:52:53,880 --> 00:52:58,119
half's out there, MGM, hard Rock both juiced four and

1085
00:52:58,159 --> 00:53:00,159
a half. But yeah, it looks like circa five if

1086
00:53:00,199 --> 00:53:01,760
you're in if you're in Vegas, there's a lot of

1087
00:53:01,800 --> 00:53:04,639
fives fanatics five rivers four and a half. So yeah,

1088
00:53:04,760 --> 00:53:07,679
well we will go we'll officially lock this in right now.

1089
00:53:07,719 --> 00:53:08,840
Speaker 1: Then we'll we'll go both.

1090
00:53:09,480 --> 00:53:13,280
Speaker 2: So I think that'll be Montana minus five, Queens minus five.

1091
00:53:13,920 --> 00:53:16,159
Speaker 3: You got it beautiful.

1092
00:53:17,559 --> 00:53:18,000
Speaker 1: All right?

1093
00:53:18,039 --> 00:53:20,119
Speaker 2: And so yeah, like I said, that'll be the uh

1094
00:53:20,159 --> 00:53:21,960
so those are I guess would be our best bets.

1095
00:53:22,039 --> 00:53:25,000
That will be the you know that the parlay for

1096
00:53:25,079 --> 00:53:27,480
our show. We'll go with standard parlay odds. There because

1097
00:53:27,480 --> 00:53:30,239
both are minus one ten, so so plus two sixty

1098
00:53:30,360 --> 00:53:34,559
on that and yeah, hopeful, hopefully you know what you

1099
00:53:34,599 --> 00:53:37,440
could do since it worked out this way, you could

1100
00:53:37,440 --> 00:53:40,000
probably back it with a little moneyline parlay as well.

1101
00:53:40,199 --> 00:53:42,599
I really like both of those teams to win their

1102
00:53:42,639 --> 00:53:43,559
respective games.

1103
00:53:44,039 --> 00:53:45,079
Speaker 1: Take a spread out of.

1104
00:53:45,039 --> 00:53:51,199
Speaker 2: It, sure, but yeah, so so real quick, I guess

1105
00:53:51,239 --> 00:53:53,159
at the uh, let's let's see if we can get

1106
00:53:53,199 --> 00:53:53,880
one more in.

1107
00:53:54,119 --> 00:53:54,400
Speaker 1: We can.

1108
00:53:54,480 --> 00:53:56,800
Speaker 2: We can kind of like you know, at the gun,

1109
00:53:56,840 --> 00:53:59,000
we don't have to go super into detail in this one.

1110
00:53:59,039 --> 00:54:01,239
But I am gonna go, well, I guess we'll we'll

1111
00:54:01,239 --> 00:54:05,239
give We'll give the folks rolling out of bed another

1112
00:54:05,320 --> 00:54:07,599
early game, so I know people are gonna be on

1113
00:54:07,599 --> 00:54:10,719
that YouTube replay like twelve forty five looking for the

1114
00:54:10,719 --> 00:54:13,320
early games. At tip off at one, I threw the

1115
00:54:13,360 --> 00:54:17,360
Coastal Carolina Polo on just to keep me on brand.

1116
00:54:17,400 --> 00:54:20,199
I like to, you know, find someone that's playing, maybe

1117
00:54:20,239 --> 00:54:23,480
have an opinion that I have an opinion on. Although

1118
00:54:23,679 --> 00:54:25,880
my opinion here is kind of anti coastal, but I

1119
00:54:26,360 --> 00:54:28,000
like the polo and wanted to wear it. I got

1120
00:54:28,000 --> 00:54:31,159
this down and got this down in Conway, South Carolina,

1121
00:54:31,199 --> 00:54:34,000
when I visited the HTC Center last year Freddie, which

1122
00:54:34,000 --> 00:54:34,880
I don't know if you've seen it.

1123
00:54:35,519 --> 00:54:38,079
Speaker 1: They decided to go all teel on the floor this year.

1124
00:54:38,119 --> 00:54:40,559
It's very interesting, to say the least.

1125
00:54:42,960 --> 00:54:46,000
Speaker 2: I agree with the move here. I can't Coastal. I

1126
00:54:46,159 --> 00:54:47,760
like this team coming into the season. I thought they

1127
00:54:47,760 --> 00:54:50,280
were very undervalued coming into the season. The more I

1128
00:54:50,320 --> 00:54:52,199
watched them play offense, I see a lot of not

1129
00:54:52,320 --> 00:54:55,199
moving around. They've got a couple guys that can really cook,

1130
00:54:55,280 --> 00:54:59,039
like Jones is the one that stayed from last year

1131
00:54:59,159 --> 00:55:00,559
that probably could have trained straight out.

1132
00:55:00,599 --> 00:55:01,920
Speaker 1: Is a very good score.

1133
00:55:02,400 --> 00:55:06,360
Speaker 2: And you know, there's some some individual offensive talent they defend.

1134
00:55:06,519 --> 00:55:08,800
I like Justin Gray as a coach, former Wake Forest

1135
00:55:08,800 --> 00:55:09,400
demon Deacon.

1136
00:55:09,960 --> 00:55:10,199
Speaker 3: Yep.

1137
00:55:10,559 --> 00:55:13,079
Speaker 2: But I think my numbers suggest that they should not

1138
00:55:13,119 --> 00:55:14,719
be favored here even though they're at home.

1139
00:55:14,760 --> 00:55:16,400
Speaker 1: What do you think Georgia Southern Coastal?

1140
00:55:17,760 --> 00:55:19,440
Speaker 3: I am on Georgia Southern plus two.

1141
00:55:20,400 --> 00:55:24,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, for a lot of reasons that I

1142
00:55:24,039 --> 00:55:26,960
suppose you said. I'm pretty high on Southern terms of

1143
00:55:26,960 --> 00:55:31,320
what they're doing this year. When I look at Coastal Carolina,

1144
00:55:31,320 --> 00:55:34,559
no doubt an improvement. But you know, when I watch

1145
00:55:34,639 --> 00:55:36,199
and then when I look at the metrics that back

1146
00:55:36,239 --> 00:55:38,760
it up. It's a very ISO heavy offense, a very

1147
00:55:38,800 --> 00:55:42,960
low assist rate, I think a bottom twenty national assist rate,

1148
00:55:44,119 --> 00:55:47,000
which you know it's tough to kind of sustain with

1149
00:55:47,559 --> 00:55:50,639
free flowing offense. And Georgia Southern is a very aggressive

1150
00:55:50,639 --> 00:55:52,880
defense off from two to the ball, very hot turnover rate,

1151
00:55:52,920 --> 00:55:56,519
so it's gonna be hard to turn the corner, you know,

1152
00:55:56,559 --> 00:56:00,599
off the dribble with these types of defenses. When I

1153
00:56:00,599 --> 00:56:04,280
look at I guess coastal set up you mentioned Gray,

1154
00:56:04,400 --> 00:56:09,719
Gray is definitely a drop coverage employer, or that's what

1155
00:56:09,840 --> 00:56:14,280
coastal will play, forcing the ball handler to finish. I

1156
00:56:14,320 --> 00:56:18,239
think most recently when I looked at a coastal limits

1157
00:56:18,559 --> 00:56:21,159
kind of assists at a top ten rate nationally, what

1158
00:56:21,199 --> 00:56:23,280
that would suggest is, you know, the drop coverage just

1159
00:56:23,320 --> 00:56:25,599
basically means you stay at home on the perimeter, you

1160
00:56:25,599 --> 00:56:27,719
don't help in the gaps, you force the ball handler

1161
00:56:27,760 --> 00:56:31,920
to finish. But that's how the Georgia Southern offense is wired.

1162
00:56:31,960 --> 00:56:35,639
They're i think above the ninety fifth percentile and field

1163
00:56:35,639 --> 00:56:36,800
goal attempts off to dribble.

1164
00:56:38,000 --> 00:56:40,519
Speaker 3: It's what they want to do. So I kind of

1165
00:56:40,559 --> 00:56:44,360
like just the the way they're playing and this matchup.

1166
00:56:45,639 --> 00:56:48,000
Speaker 4: Both ways, I feel like they're kind of more aggressive

1167
00:56:48,039 --> 00:56:51,840
defense can force Coastal to move the ball, which is

1168
00:56:52,280 --> 00:56:54,400
not something they've been great at with the low assists, right,

1169
00:56:55,000 --> 00:56:56,320
you know, if you bring to the ball, you had

1170
00:56:56,320 --> 00:56:58,840
to be able to move to the weak sod not

1171
00:56:58,960 --> 00:57:02,199
something they've shown me they do consistently anyway. And on

1172
00:57:02,239 --> 00:57:04,320
the other end, as I mentioned, they're the drop coverage.

1173
00:57:04,320 --> 00:57:06,639
I think Georgia Southern has several creators off the dribble

1174
00:57:06,679 --> 00:57:08,719
that can kind of heat that up.

1175
00:57:08,800 --> 00:57:10,360
Speaker 3: So I had.

1176
00:57:11,800 --> 00:57:15,679
Speaker 4: Georgia Suthern a slight favorite here, so I wanted I

1177
00:57:15,679 --> 00:57:18,400
suppose some action to it. You never know, I guess

1178
00:57:18,480 --> 00:57:20,719
early start on the road, that sort of thing. But

1179
00:57:20,960 --> 00:57:23,000
I had then the better team, so I guess we'll see.

1180
00:57:24,800 --> 00:57:27,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you talked me into it. It looks

1181
00:57:27,320 --> 00:57:29,400
like I'm gonna have to take plus one and a half.

1182
00:57:30,559 --> 00:57:33,760
Kicking myself because I felt like it was faked up earlier.

1183
00:57:33,880 --> 00:57:36,400
Speaker 1: I was like, man, that's so interesting. Yeah, there was

1184
00:57:36,480 --> 00:57:37,360
this opened two.

1185
00:57:37,880 --> 00:57:40,360
Speaker 2: It actually went to two and a half momentarily, and

1186
00:57:40,400 --> 00:57:43,119
I was like, yeah, that might be a little bit

1187
00:57:43,119 --> 00:57:46,679
of a you know whatever, like a manipulation of sorts,

1188
00:57:46,679 --> 00:57:49,519
and I think that's the case. So there is actually

1189
00:57:49,599 --> 00:57:52,679
still a couple two's out there. They're They're definitely not

1190
00:57:54,039 --> 00:57:58,519
books that are what I would consider widely available. So yeah,

1191
00:57:58,559 --> 00:58:00,960
I'm with you, though every thing you said makes sense.

1192
00:58:01,199 --> 00:58:04,280
The biggest thing I've noticed personally watching a lot of

1193
00:58:04,280 --> 00:58:08,639
Coastal Carolina ball is that they just The game that

1194
00:58:08,719 --> 00:58:11,760
really sticks out to me is the Alabama A and

1195
00:58:11,880 --> 00:58:15,719
M game. I got very, very fortunate to h to

1196
00:58:15,920 --> 00:58:19,960
cover six and a half with Coastal in that game,

1197
00:58:20,559 --> 00:58:23,440
and they had a pretty substantial lead at one point

1198
00:58:24,440 --> 00:58:28,599
and they just you know, they ended up just standing

1199
00:58:28,639 --> 00:58:31,400
around for almost an entire half and I was kind.

1200
00:58:31,199 --> 00:58:34,519
Speaker 1: Of like, man, like this is this is not good

1201
00:58:34,599 --> 00:58:36,280
and I got lucky to cover at the end.

1202
00:58:36,280 --> 00:58:38,039
Speaker 2: And ever since then, I've kind of watched them and

1203
00:58:38,079 --> 00:58:42,239
I'm like, did I maybe come out of the gate?

1204
00:58:42,360 --> 00:58:44,000
Speaker 1: Well? Maybe was I right on this team?

1205
00:58:44,280 --> 00:58:46,440
Speaker 2: And now I've got to reassess Like they came out

1206
00:58:46,800 --> 00:58:49,880
they overachieved, which I wasn't surprised because I like some

1207
00:58:49,920 --> 00:58:52,039
of the guys that they had back. But now I'm

1208
00:58:52,079 --> 00:58:56,000
almost feeling like the market has maybe moved too far

1209
00:58:56,239 --> 00:58:59,039
in their favor, and so I'm with you. I'm the same.

1210
00:58:59,039 --> 00:59:02,159
I've got Georgia Southern slight favorite. Yeah, it's an early.

1211
00:59:02,000 --> 00:59:04,639
Speaker 4: Tim Yeah, it's very interesting to me how Coastal kind

1212
00:59:04,639 --> 00:59:08,880
of ramped up their pace this year too, and last

1213
00:59:08,920 --> 00:59:11,559
year they were playing, you know, at snails pace on

1214
00:59:11,559 --> 00:59:13,880
one of the bottom tempos. This year there I think

1215
00:59:13,960 --> 00:59:19,079
like top fifty sixty tempos, which is again what this

1216
00:59:19,199 --> 00:59:22,079
Georgia Southern offense wants to do with Charlie Henry.

1217
00:59:22,119 --> 00:59:25,199
Speaker 3: They're coming from the Alabama kind of system. You know,

1218
00:59:25,320 --> 00:59:26,000
that team.

1219
00:59:25,840 --> 00:59:30,519
Speaker 4: Thraws with pace offensively anyway in my mind, So I'll

1220
00:59:30,559 --> 00:59:32,639
be interesting to see if Coastal as you get into

1221
00:59:32,679 --> 00:59:36,320
conference play, maybe dolls it back a bit. But yeah,

1222
00:59:36,400 --> 00:59:40,400
I think Southern's a decent bet, particularly getting a point

1223
00:59:40,480 --> 00:59:43,280
or two and game I think they certainly can win.

1224
00:59:45,800 --> 00:59:49,599
Speaker 2: All right, guys, we've reached the top of the hour.

1225
00:59:49,679 --> 00:59:51,360
I don't know if anyone else is doing shows today.

1226
00:59:51,440 --> 00:59:53,719
Usually I got to get off on because we have

1227
00:59:53,920 --> 00:59:57,119
a pretty tight schedule in terms of like shows. I

1228
00:59:57,199 --> 00:59:59,199
don't know if we've got got one behind me, but

1229
00:59:59,199 --> 01:00:01,719
that's why we get the hard stop at eleven on

1230
01:00:02,599 --> 01:00:06,519
our parlay again, two teamer for the show Montana minus

1231
01:00:06,519 --> 01:00:10,480
five Queen's minus five. So there you go, nice easy

1232
01:00:10,480 --> 01:00:13,599
two team or for the show two client plays for me,

1233
01:00:13,639 --> 01:00:16,440
I gave out on the show Montana minus five, and

1234
01:00:16,639 --> 01:00:18,360
I'm going to join Freddy with Georgia Southern.

1235
01:00:18,559 --> 01:00:20,519
Speaker 1: He he pushed me. It was one.

1236
01:00:20,519 --> 01:00:23,000
Speaker 2: I was already sort of leaning that way, and I

1237
01:00:23,039 --> 01:00:24,119
took the plus one and a half.

1238
01:00:24,119 --> 01:00:25,800
Speaker 1: There Freddy's got plus two.

1239
01:00:27,119 --> 01:00:29,159
Speaker 2: And then did you also bet the queen's side is

1240
01:00:29,199 --> 01:00:30,519
that it is a bet for you as well?

1241
01:00:30,800 --> 01:00:30,960
Speaker 1: Yeah?

1242
01:00:31,000 --> 01:00:34,320
Speaker 4: I bet that at three six five earlier took four

1243
01:00:34,360 --> 01:00:38,000
and a half minus one fifteen personally, but you know

1244
01:00:38,119 --> 01:00:40,400
I have five was perfectly fine too.

1245
01:00:41,079 --> 01:00:43,360
Speaker 1: And what about and Sanford was a bet for you

1246
01:00:43,400 --> 01:00:44,000
as well, just.

1247
01:00:43,960 --> 01:00:47,519
Speaker 4: At Stanford four and a half. Yeah, so those are

1248
01:00:47,599 --> 01:00:51,159
the three I believe, the only three I have bet.

1249
01:00:51,159 --> 01:00:53,039
And like I said, Baptist is another one that I

1250
01:00:53,079 --> 01:00:55,320
have interest in but didn't want to lay the two

1251
01:00:55,320 --> 01:00:57,119
and a half. So it'll be interested to see maybe

1252
01:00:57,119 --> 01:00:59,719
someone pushes back and knocks that down to one and

1253
01:00:59,719 --> 01:01:02,480
a half one, and then maybe I might dabble a

1254
01:01:02,480 --> 01:01:05,679
little bit or like look for potentially a slow start

1255
01:01:05,840 --> 01:01:07,760
and maybe try and get. You know, if they go

1256
01:01:07,800 --> 01:01:09,679
down three to nothing, five nothing might be able to

1257
01:01:09,679 --> 01:01:11,239
get something like that.

1258
01:01:11,239 --> 01:01:13,239
Speaker 3: Is I'm not dying to.

1259
01:01:13,360 --> 01:01:15,360
Speaker 4: Jump in at the number now, like I kind of

1260
01:01:15,400 --> 01:01:18,559
just want the money line at a bit more appealing price.

1261
01:01:18,599 --> 01:01:19,360
Speaker 3: I guess.

1262
01:01:20,599 --> 01:01:22,559
Speaker 2: All right, Happy New Year everybody. I hope you have

1263
01:01:22,599 --> 01:01:25,400
a great day. I'll be back with Veno tomorrow ten

1264
01:01:25,440 --> 01:01:28,320
am Eastern. Thanks again to Freddy for tuning in and

1265
01:01:28,599 --> 01:01:29,480
you can find him on Twitter.

1266
01:01:29,519 --> 01:01:30,639
Speaker 1: Freddy, what's your Twitter handle?

1267
01:01:31,559 --> 01:01:32,840
Speaker 3: It's just Freddy mill seven.

1268
01:01:33,079 --> 01:01:35,599
Speaker 4: Yeah, and thanks Adam for having me on and everyone

1269
01:01:35,679 --> 01:01:38,480
for I guess listening to me ramble on about it,

1270
01:01:38,480 --> 01:01:41,559
and best of luck to everyone today.

1271
01:01:41,639 --> 01:01:45,440
Speaker 1: All right, see you guys tomorrow, Yeah,