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Speaker 1: We love Happy Sunday everybody. It is last call here

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on Wager Talk. I'm the prop Queen Aria Epstein. You

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know that this is the show that we bring you

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all the info. You find out where the Sharps are

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going with Yanni the Greek. Then we find out the

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needs from over at the super Book at the Westgate

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in Las Vegas, from Margaret's friend John Murray, what does

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the sports book need? Do you want to be on

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their side? And then we've got Jesse Schulz is going

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to answer all your questions and break down what he

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feels are the best sides of the day. At the

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end of the show, I'll definitely give you guys some

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props that I had stand out, and I give them

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out earlier this week on social media to try to

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beat some lines. Of course, some move in your favorite,

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some stay the same, and you get ahead of some

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of them. I know that we all feel that we

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need to get ahead of these lines. Yes, my Bravens

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Tyrone are playing the Steelers today, so I'm going to

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bring my dog to the dog park right after the

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show ends in about forty five minutes, and then to

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be home in time for one o'clock. So that she's

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tired and I can be in the zone. Granted, I

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officially anti wearing Ravens gear until they prove otherwise, because

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if they continue to play as sloppy as they have,

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I'm not repping them. I'll support them, I'll watch them,

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I'll cheer for them, i won't bet on them, and

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I certainly will not be repping the gear until they

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play like a normal super Bowl caliber football team. The

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NFL is wide open. Everybody it has a chance. The

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AFC is so weak, but let's bring on one of

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our strongest, Yanni, the Greek from over in Las Vegas.

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Everyone get your Odds Logic screen up Oddslogic dot com

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slash prop queen follow along with the line moves the

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Phillies hat is in action for Yanni today. Greek underscore gambler.

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How are you? Yanni?

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Speaker 2: Never better? Never better? Just a long, long weekend, but

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really turned out great for us.

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Speaker 3: So long.

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Speaker 2: I was UFC last night, amazing, amazing, ended up hitting

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a five percent at plus two hundred and gave them

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out at a prop at plus five hundred. It was

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just one of those days. Everything just went right. College

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football was good, College bat ball was good. It's been

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a really good seven days, Like picked up over seventy

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units in the last seventy days, So just running really hot.

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Speaker 1: And here, yeah, we've got to keep it going for

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Sunday today. It's week fourteen of the NFL season. Already,

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I've got some sides totals. I'm sure that you've seen

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some steam come in on. I guess let's start with

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one of the big games of the day. Selfishly, I'm

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very curious your thoughts on this Raven Steelers game.

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Speaker 2: All right, I haven't seen anything sharp on that game,

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like any steam in any of the accounts so far.

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It's good two way action, which isn't really the case.

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Usually when you have a touchdown favorite, they're usually going

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to be in the seventy to thirty range as far

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as ticket split and money split. But that's just not

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the case. Just not confidence, I guess from the betters

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in Baltimore laying that many points open six and a half.

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That was a look ahead when as low as five

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and a half, now back to six. But like I said,

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just seeing two way action there, even the total dip

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the half a point down now back to forty three.

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So just one of those games where it's better to

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just book it, you know, collecting all that big without

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much risk gun the head. I'd probably lay the points

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with the Ravens, and I'd leaned over as well. I

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think it's an over adjustment to the total. Got to

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remember the look ahead on the total is about forty

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seven and a half forty eight. It's since been adjusted

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five points. I think that's a little bit too significant.

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The only way you could bet that game now is

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over or leave it alone. The under has already been adjusted.

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So for me, I like Ravens and over in that game,

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but not a matchup that I have any risk on.

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Speaker 1: It all confusing to talk about another team in the

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AFC North, the Cincinnati Bengals coming off that Thanksgiving win

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in Baltimore, huge for the first game back Joe Burrow

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under center turf toe injury. But now they have to

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head to cold Buffalo where the Bills they were minus

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five and a half. Current live line I'm seeing still

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five and a half. Total has gone up even from

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fifty two two and a half to fifty four and

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a half. How do you see that one play out?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, another game where you're getting two way action, but

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the wise guys did take a position here. They took

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Buffalo as soon as the line went up at minus

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five and a half. So the sharps are on Buffalo.

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They like them here at home. Buffalo just hasn't been consistent.

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It's a team that's alternated wins and losses over the

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last four In fact, they've done so over the last six.

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Like I say, went in dowal't zoom out, and when

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you zoom out with this team, you look over the

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last eight or four and four. So I mean they've

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been a five hundred football team since early late September,

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early October, and I don't think there's much confidence there

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from the public. Usually Buffalo's won of them teams that

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gets money every single week, but that's just not the case.

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In fact, I'm seeing a little more money right now

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on Cincinnati. Now, obviously there's going to be a lot

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of moneyline parlays and teasers with Buffalo to offset that.

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But as far as three bets go, they're taking the

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points with Buffalo, and I think that's a bad move.

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I think this is a good spot for a Buffalo

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team that has something to play for, strong home field advantage.

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They won five or six games compared to only being

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a five hundred team on the road, so they have

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a very good, strong home field advantage and Cincinnati really

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has nothing to play for. Their big game was last

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week the Visional arrival at Baltimore seven point Dogs. They

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won by twenty points. Almost This is has let down

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written all over it in the cold on the road

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at Buffalo, and Buffalo's got New England on deck. I

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don't think they get caught looking ahead. This is a

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game they gotta win, beat, beat Cincinnati, and then worry

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about New England when they're nine and four. So I

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think Buffalo cruises easily wins by double digits.

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Speaker 1: Especially at home. Buffalo and Josh Allen their quarterback play

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much better when you look at the home road split.

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Speaker 2: Yep.

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Speaker 1: The question in the group chap from hot Kebob said,

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thoughts on Jags colts that one's a short spread too

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of one and a half.

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Speaker 2: Ooh, I think, let me see, let me just make sure.

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Actually I have a position that.

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Speaker 1: One such a hard one to figure out, just because

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short spread one and a half have had a hot

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start to the season. Kind of coming back to life.

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Daniel Jones has a fibula injury. Jags are the home team.

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It's a tough one.

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Speaker 2: It's the offense for Indianapolis that keeps them viable. I

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mean they're top five offense now. They've had a week

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strength of schedule bottom six in the league, so had

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an easy strength of schedule, which worries me. You should

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have a much better defense when your schedule is that

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week on Indianapolis side. But luckily for them, they're going

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up against a Jacksonville team that's mid tier offensively, so

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that defense is going to have an easier go of.

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Speaker 3: It this week.

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Speaker 2: That's why I actually have a position on Indianapolis. I

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have Indianapolis on the money line at minus one twenty.

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I think they're minus one now minus one and a half.

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I think Indianapolis again, they're on the road. That's why

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I see the money coming in on Jacksonville. I disagree.

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I think Indianapolis is the better team. These are two

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eight and four teams, but I think they're different eight

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and four teams. And with Jacksonville, you're getting them at

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their highest point, meaning their's stocks that they're highest. They're

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coming in all three straight wins, three straight covers. They

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just blew out Tennessee by twenty plus points as only

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six point favorites. I just think this line should be

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closer to Indianapolis minus three, so should be about a

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field goal road favorite, believe it or not, and getting

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them at a pick a more or less. I think

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it is the gift win or lose. I think I

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placed a decent bed. I'm comfortable Indianapolis on the road.

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Speaker 1: Here Vikings that one. They're getting their quarterback JJ McCarthy back. Washington.

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I think it's getting Jayden Daniels back. So that's why

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you've seen the line flip from Minnesota minus one and

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a half to now Vikings catching and plus one and

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a half at home total forty three and a half. Yanny,

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these games, when you've got quarterbacks in and out because

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of injury, it makes it a lot tougher technically. I

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guess we could say equal playing field because of the

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quarterback injuries getting them both back. How would you play

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this one? And did the line flip play it role

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in the way that you bet it?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the wise guys are on Washington. They took him

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at plus three. They took him at plus two and

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a half, like you said, and the lines flip Okay,

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they've placed a good bet. If you got Washington plus

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three in your pocket, good job, you did your job.

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Win or lose, you did your job. Now where it sits,

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I think you gotta look at the other side. For me,

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it's Minnesota or pass right now, because here's what you

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gotta remember. The comparison has to be from the starter

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to the droppole for the drop off back to the starter.

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And with Mariota, he's a seasons quarterback. If you look

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at his passer rating over the last three games, only

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once has it been below eighty five. Once it was

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over one hundred and thirty. So he's played well. And

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where what's the increase? Like, it's all the narrative, and

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it's all in speculation that Jaden Daniels is going to

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be an upgrade maybe the past Janiel Daniels, but I

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don't know about the twenty twenty five version of Daniels.

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Is he going to be an improvement on Mariota. You

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have to go out there and do that first. I

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haven't seen it. So for me, I actually think now

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you're getting the value on Minnesota. And the only reason

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you know Washington is the favorite is because of the

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overreaction to Jayden Daniels. Dude, they're on the road. They're

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a team that's won one of six games on the road.

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What business do you have being a road favorite? Like

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I could see if you're a five hundred team even

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on the road, but you're one in five, Bro, you've

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won a single road game. What business do you have

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being a favorite? Not even a half point favorite?

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Speaker 3: Should you be?

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Speaker 2: It makes no sense? It's dog or pass.

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Speaker 1: Another question in the chat, they want to know about

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this Titans and Browns game, because I actually saw a

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really funny tweet that said the game should be flex

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to eight am Eastern Time because this game could be

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solo scoring and so boring like a European game Tennessee Brownies.

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Speaker 2: But you got, dude again, what business does Cleveland have

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been any kind of a significant favorite? And once you're

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up over a field goal in the NFL, where that

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cliche and again in Sunday is actually true, it makes

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no sense. And why people are excited to bet Cleveland

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to me is even more confusing. I'm a little happy

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to see that the market kind of moved it back down,

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because when I saw it go from three and a

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half to four I'm like, what are they doing? Like what? What?

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How if when you look walk into a sports book. Okay,

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let's let's pretend you're walking into a casino. You walked

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into the sports book. You look up on the board.

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They have college basketball, they have NBA, they have NHL,

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they have and they have everything. They have soccer, everything,

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And the best thing you could come up with is,

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I'm going to risk my money on the Cleveland Browns

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as more than field goal favorites. Like, that's the best

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bet I could come up with. There's six hundred options

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up there, but you know what, I'm going to risk

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it with the Brownies because hey, they've just had such

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a good year and I think they're gonna win as favorites.

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That's just ridiculous. Even if Browns go out there and

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win by seventy five points, it's stupid. Go put it

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on a roulette color on a number. You got a

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better shot. To me, that's a waste of money. You

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got a Cleveland team that's won three games in their

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last seven, They've covered four in their last seven. That's it.

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Every one of those games that they covered, they were underdogs,

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underdogs except for one that was it Like This isn't

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a team that you should be confident laying points with.

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So again, if you have Cleveland laying points, I hope

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they get it for you because I haven't touched that game.

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00:11:20,360 --> 00:11:22,600
But for me, it's Tennessee or pass I get it.

239
00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:25,360
Tennessee's not going to be excited about either. But fuck

240
00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:29,120
it's they're two bad teams. Take the points, Jesus the chat.

241
00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:31,440
Speaker 1: All they want to know about are these terrible games. Now,

242
00:11:31,480 --> 00:11:33,240
we got a lot of questions on the Jets and

243
00:11:33,279 --> 00:11:36,279
the Dolphins. The Jets. The narrative this week fade the

244
00:11:36,360 --> 00:11:38,480
Jets because they won last week. How much do you

245
00:11:38,480 --> 00:11:39,360
believe that narrative?

246
00:11:40,120 --> 00:11:43,240
Speaker 2: I don't because listen, that makes no They're a three

247
00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:46,159
win football team, so it's like, not, why was the

248
00:11:46,240 --> 00:11:48,960
third win something you're gonna fade? It doesn't make any sense,

249
00:11:49,279 --> 00:11:51,759
Like where's the trend there? When they won their first game,

250
00:11:51,799 --> 00:11:53,559
they were supposed to have a letdown, and instead they

251
00:11:53,559 --> 00:11:55,840
came back and won the very next week as underdogs.

252
00:11:55,879 --> 00:12:00,159
So no, that's just ridiculous. But you now have a

253
00:12:00,279 --> 00:12:02,879
Jets team that's won five in a row meaning cover

254
00:12:02,960 --> 00:12:04,720
and against the spread. In the world I live in,

255
00:12:04,799 --> 00:12:08,480
and three of those five games they want outright as underdogs.

256
00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:11,720
So of course the market's gonna correct, start to correct itself,

257
00:12:11,720 --> 00:12:15,360
and that's what's happening here. Jets have no business being

258
00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:17,399
less than a field goal favorite to Miami, and that's

259
00:12:17,399 --> 00:12:19,279
why the Sharps laid the two and a half with

260
00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:22,679
the Dolphins. I don't love it because you know, Dolphins again,

261
00:12:22,759 --> 00:12:25,039
not a team that I have a lot of faith

262
00:12:25,080 --> 00:12:28,240
on faith with, especially on the road. Again, another team

263
00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:31,120
that's won one to five road games. Don't have much

264
00:12:31,120 --> 00:12:34,879
confidence on them as road favorites. They'll below five hundred. Overall,

265
00:12:35,279 --> 00:12:37,919
they're better at home than the road.

266
00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:38,519
Speaker 3: We know that.

267
00:12:38,799 --> 00:12:40,720
Speaker 2: On the flip side, Jets are better at home than

268
00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:43,720
on the roads. Like, there's no real reason to lay

269
00:12:43,919 --> 00:12:47,120
Miami other than piggybacking the wise guys. They're on them,

270
00:12:47,159 --> 00:12:49,519
So you know, if you do that, I guess and

271
00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:51,759
a game I'm gonna get involved in. If anything, I'm

272
00:12:51,759 --> 00:12:54,519
going to look to tease the Jets up. If that

273
00:12:54,559 --> 00:12:57,360
line stay slays the same total forty one, get them

274
00:12:57,399 --> 00:12:59,159
up to eight and a half, it's a beautiful bet,

275
00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:01,039
win or lose. Those are the kind of teasers I

276
00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:01,519
live for.

277
00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:04,120
Speaker 1: What other teaser like, would you pair that way?

278
00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:07,919
Speaker 2: I would pair with either India with Jacksonville, even though

279
00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:09,960
I have a bet on Indianapolis. See, my teasers are

280
00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:12,840
irrelevant in my opinion, I don't care what bets I

281
00:13:12,919 --> 00:13:15,440
have when a teaser. The only reason I'm using a

282
00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:18,200
teaser is because I know if I could bypass the

283
00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:21,080
numbers three, six and seven and not lay more than

284
00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:23,639
one twenty five, I am guaranteed to have placed the

285
00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:26,600
plus CV bet that where I'm now the house, I

286
00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:28,879
now have the best of it, and there's nothing they

287
00:13:28,919 --> 00:13:31,240
can do about it but raise the big so that

288
00:13:31,279 --> 00:13:33,919
I'm no longer in that position. But luckily I still

289
00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:36,200
have a book that actually gives me minus one ten

290
00:13:36,679 --> 00:13:39,279
on six point teasers. Thank you Kelly in Vegas for

291
00:13:39,320 --> 00:13:43,279
the connection. So they're still out there, guys, they're still

292
00:13:43,279 --> 00:13:44,960
out there. You can still lay minus one ten and

293
00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:48,000
get about a three percent edge. That's almost two x

294
00:13:48,039 --> 00:13:50,639
what the MIT card Counting Group had. They made movies

295
00:13:50,679 --> 00:13:52,879
about them, wrote books about them. We're still talking about

296
00:13:52,879 --> 00:13:55,559
them thirty years later. So you can have that exact

297
00:13:55,559 --> 00:13:58,840
tame edge if you just tease the same numbers three,

298
00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:01,519
six and seven. Don't lay minus one twenty five are

299
00:14:01,559 --> 00:14:03,840
better and right now the teams that are offering that

300
00:14:03,879 --> 00:14:14,480
to you are the Jets, Jacksonville, New Orleans, Denver and

301
00:14:14,519 --> 00:14:18,799
the Chargers. You have like five teasable teams right there.

302
00:14:18,879 --> 00:14:22,720
If you can't place plus CB teasers today, you're doing

303
00:14:22,759 --> 00:14:25,600
it wrong. Like if you can't place a bunch of

304
00:14:25,639 --> 00:14:29,840
good bets today at with teasers. I promise you re

305
00:14:30,679 --> 00:14:33,759
put something, reinvest into your thesis because you're doing it wrong.

306
00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:37,559
No disrespect, but there's nothing but plus TV opportunities on

307
00:14:37,600 --> 00:14:40,200
the board for us today. Fellas nothing but two and

308
00:14:40,279 --> 00:14:42,919
a HALFS eight. Those are the numbers we want one

309
00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:46,799
and a halfs that that's stealing in the NFL.

310
00:14:47,519 --> 00:14:49,279
Speaker 1: Oh boy, you are making me have to go to

311
00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:50,679
the window and bet some more teasers.

312
00:14:50,720 --> 00:14:51,200
Speaker 2: That's great.

313
00:14:51,759 --> 00:14:53,639
Speaker 1: We've got to set ourselves up for a really good

314
00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:57,080
position for tonight because tonight we do have a good game. Houston,

315
00:14:57,080 --> 00:14:59,759
Texans take it down the Kansas City Chiefs. You tell

316
00:14:59,799 --> 00:15:01,840
me your sharp groups are doing because I saw this

317
00:15:01,919 --> 00:15:03,279
line move four and a half to three and a

318
00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:07,879
half Kansas City, and I mean, let'sen, Houston's got their quarterbacks. CJ.

319
00:15:07,960 --> 00:15:11,000
Stroud back Kansas City is hanging on by a thread

320
00:15:11,039 --> 00:15:13,799
to make the playoffs. What were the groups doing on

321
00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:14,360
this one?

322
00:15:14,799 --> 00:15:17,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, and don great game. I don't want to paint

323
00:15:17,279 --> 00:15:19,679
myself into a corner because again not the talent, but

324
00:15:19,759 --> 00:15:22,120
as the guys have been following me know the primetime games,

325
00:15:22,120 --> 00:15:24,720
I've just been on fire, like the Sunday night. I

326
00:15:24,720 --> 00:15:27,159
think I'm now like eighth straight where we've hit the

327
00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:30,039
side in total, So like five straight weeks of like

328
00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:33,360
side in total side and total side in total I

329
00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:36,919
based on how they adjust the lines later, well, overly

330
00:15:37,039 --> 00:15:40,279
results tells you a lot about the risk which you're

331
00:15:40,279 --> 00:15:42,399
You're able to figure a lot of things out, no

332
00:15:42,519 --> 00:15:45,200
handicap needed when it comes to prime time. So I'm

333
00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:47,519
gonna wait before I release the play. But here's what's

334
00:15:47,519 --> 00:15:49,759
sticking out to me. I can tell you for certainty

335
00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:52,679
whyse guys are on Kansas City. They laid the three

336
00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:55,480
with Kansas City, and I'm gonna tell you why because

337
00:15:55,799 --> 00:15:59,399
even though Kansas City is what are they right now?

338
00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:02,120
Are they a beare a five hundred football team? Okay?

339
00:16:02,879 --> 00:16:08,200
Power rating wise power rating Kansas City is still a

340
00:16:08,240 --> 00:16:12,279
top five team. Let me repeat that. Kansas City at

341
00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:16,919
six and six would still be favored over at least

342
00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:20,399
twenty five of the NFL teams, if not a few

343
00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:23,679
more of those, maybe twenty six, twenty seven, they would

344
00:16:23,679 --> 00:16:28,039
be favored over all those teams. So again, what's on

345
00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:30,200
paper and what they do on the field sometimes there

346
00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:33,480
are two different things. But as a sports better, all

347
00:16:33,519 --> 00:16:36,240
you can do is determine what you projects gonna happen

348
00:16:36,559 --> 00:16:38,960
based off what you have in front of you on paper.

349
00:16:39,159 --> 00:16:41,279
That's all we have to go for. We don't know

350
00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:42,960
if they're gonna wake up with a headache, if they

351
00:16:43,039 --> 00:16:45,480
got in an argument with their girlfriend last night like that. Shit,

352
00:16:45,519 --> 00:16:47,799
We have no idea about, but we have data in

353
00:16:47,840 --> 00:16:50,159
front of us, and the data tells us Kansas City

354
00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:53,399
power rating wise, on paper, should still be favored over

355
00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:57,039
twenty five plus NFL teams. That's why you're looking at

356
00:16:57,039 --> 00:17:01,879
them as more than a field goal against Houston, which

357
00:17:01,919 --> 00:17:06,920
again you know you don't get Rich Faden Houston. They've

358
00:17:06,960 --> 00:17:12,960
been a profitable football team, more or less even respectable

359
00:17:13,039 --> 00:17:16,599
on the road, a five hundred team. Where with the Chiefs, though,

360
00:17:16,599 --> 00:17:19,440
look at their splits, they've been so dumb. This is

361
00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:21,200
the kind of home field advantage you want to look

362
00:17:21,279 --> 00:17:24,160
for Okay, when if a team's ten and oh at home,

363
00:17:24,279 --> 00:17:25,920
ten and o on the road, they have no home

364
00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:28,279
field advantage at all. They do just as good at

365
00:17:28,279 --> 00:17:30,119
home as on the road. Who cares where they're playing.

366
00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:32,680
But when a team's one and five at home five

367
00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:34,279
and I mean well five and one at home, like

368
00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:36,839
Kansas City one and five on the road, that's a

369
00:17:36,880 --> 00:17:39,920
strong home field advantage. That means this team needs to

370
00:17:39,920 --> 00:17:42,599
play at home this year. Their their strength, their point

371
00:17:42,599 --> 00:17:46,480
differential comes at home. That's where they're playing tonight, That's

372
00:17:46,519 --> 00:17:50,440
where they're playing. So everything points to Kansas City, and

373
00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:53,759
they know Strouds back. You have Houston's coming in off

374
00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:58,160
big wins. They beat Buffalo, they beat Indianapolis, they won

375
00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:01,680
four straight, They've covered three of four. I think they're

376
00:18:01,839 --> 00:18:06,039
setting themselves up for walk into Kansas City and Mahomes

377
00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:09,519
highlight reel tonight. Not sure if I'm gonna be on it,

378
00:18:09,759 --> 00:18:13,119
but I I do look that agree that lean that way.

379
00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:16,400
I think Kansas City is the right sign tonight. I

380
00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:22,319
think the overreaction to sprout isn't warranted, and I I

381
00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:24,880
just don't like that. It's for I wish I would

382
00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:27,359
have got down at minus three, then I'd be happy

383
00:18:27,440 --> 00:18:30,240
my job's done. But at four, I gotta I gotta

384
00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:32,240
think a little deeper, because again, is that the best

385
00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:34,519
bet the place at that time?

386
00:18:34,920 --> 00:18:35,559
Speaker 3: We'll see.

387
00:18:35,839 --> 00:18:38,200
Speaker 2: But I like Casey myself, and.

388
00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:40,240
Speaker 1: I asked you about a ton of questions on the board.

389
00:18:40,319 --> 00:18:43,519
But we've got a couple of minutes. What have we missed?

390
00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:45,759
Where are the sharps going today? Where do you see

391
00:18:45,799 --> 00:18:46,960
the steam go for it?

392
00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:49,079
Speaker 2: Here here's some of some of the sharp stuff that

393
00:18:49,119 --> 00:18:53,519
we didn't discuss. We talked about Miami, we talked about Washington,

394
00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:57,480
we talked about Kansas City, we talked about Buffalo, Green Bay,

395
00:18:57,559 --> 00:19:01,559
Green Bay Another aren't played today. You saw them open

396
00:19:01,599 --> 00:19:03,519
about five five and a half. They're up to a

397
00:19:03,799 --> 00:19:07,160
touchdown at my sharpest shops, square shops probably still six

398
00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:10,519
and a half. Why because the recreational betters are taking Chicago.

399
00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:13,319
Why because they just saw them beat the Eagles as

400
00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:17,039
seven point underdogs on national TV. That they're gonna remember

401
00:19:17,079 --> 00:19:20,400
what they saw last and Chicago gives them a good,

402
00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:23,480
good feeling, good taste in their tummy because Chicago's gotten

403
00:19:23,519 --> 00:19:26,559
them the money over the last couple of weeks. In fact,

404
00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:29,599
Chicago's now won five straight games, they covered three stree

405
00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:33,160
and they don't have the confidence in green Bay. But

406
00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:37,799
while Chicago was beating up Philadelphia, and that's what everyone remembers.

407
00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:41,359
Two days before that, green Bay went into Detroit and

408
00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:45,640
slapped them around on Thanksgiving Day and that was overlooked

409
00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:49,319
by what happened on Friday with the Eagles and Chicago.

410
00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:51,880
Don't overlook that. Green Bay's a team not getting all

411
00:19:51,880 --> 00:19:54,640
that much respect. Why because no one's made money with them.

412
00:19:54,799 --> 00:19:57,440
They've won eight of twelve games, eight three and one,

413
00:19:57,759 --> 00:20:00,319
but they are two games below five hundred against the spread,

414
00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:03,880
so people have lost back in the Packers. There's a

415
00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:06,599
good spot for them. There's a big game for them.

416
00:20:06,759 --> 00:20:08,720
I don't think they're gonna have any problem with Chicago's

417
00:20:08,759 --> 00:20:12,000
a team they've owned. In fact, prior to Chicago beating

418
00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:14,680
them last January, they had lost how many in a

419
00:20:14,759 --> 00:20:18,039
row to green Bay nine, ten, eleven, twelve. Green Bay's

420
00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:20,960
owned them and covered against them. Green Bays covered eight

421
00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:24,440
of the last ten. They have Chicago's number. They show

422
00:20:24,519 --> 00:20:27,400
up today, they beat them by two touchdowns plus. Like

423
00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:30,200
I said in bed On, it don't bother teas in Chicago.

424
00:20:30,599 --> 00:20:34,039
They're going to find themselves behind this game, and green

425
00:20:34,079 --> 00:20:38,079
Bay cruises on to victory. I like the Packers a lot.

426
00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:42,319
I think Chicago's really really no disrespect. I have no again,

427
00:20:42,519 --> 00:20:44,720
I have no bias. I could care less. I'm a

428
00:20:44,759 --> 00:20:47,640
fan of no team. But here's the difference. Green Bay

429
00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:50,400
really is a top top ten power rated team. I

430
00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:53,599
have them about number seven right now. Chicago at nine

431
00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:57,599
to three is barely cracked my top twenty. In fact,

432
00:20:57,640 --> 00:21:00,279
just last week when they beat the Eagles are now

433
00:21:00,319 --> 00:21:03,359
in my top twenty. But just to put in perspective

434
00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:06,720
for you, I would make on my power ratings. The

435
00:21:06,759 --> 00:21:10,279
sportsbook wouldn't. The sportsbooks would make Arizona favor. But I

436
00:21:10,279 --> 00:21:15,519
would actually make three and nine Arizona a favorite over

437
00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:18,759
Chicago on a neutral field that much. I'm telling you.

438
00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:21,400
The books wouldn't do that. They would bring out Chicago

439
00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:23,920
as the favorite, and the public would bet the Chicago

440
00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:25,839
and the wise guys would come in and scoop up

441
00:21:25,839 --> 00:21:28,400
all the value in Arizona. That's how that would play out.

442
00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:33,720
But Arizona six and six, Dallas seven and five, Tampa

443
00:21:33,759 --> 00:21:38,599
Bay six and six, Baltimore six and six, uh Kansas City,

444
00:21:38,799 --> 00:21:42,160
all those teams would be favored over the eight and

445
00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:45,519
four Chicago Bears. And the reason for that is very simple.

446
00:21:45,799 --> 00:21:48,240
They've had one of the easiest strength of schedule. In fact,

447
00:21:48,319 --> 00:21:50,599
only three teams had an easier strength of schedule this

448
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:54,440
year than the Chicago Bears. And even with that easy schedule,

449
00:21:54,839 --> 00:21:58,440
they're barely a top twenty five defense and they're barely

450
00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:03,519
a top twenty offense. You've had the easiest strength of

451
00:22:03,559 --> 00:22:06,920
schedule and you're only in the top barely in the

452
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:10,519
top twenty in data. Yeah, there is phony as a

453
00:22:10,519 --> 00:22:12,960
three dollars bill that the wheels will fall off for

454
00:22:13,039 --> 00:22:15,880
Chicago eventually. It's just a matter of time. Told you

455
00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:18,440
about them in college football, about the Phonies. We saw

456
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:21,240
the wheels fall off eventually, like they did for Texas

457
00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:23,359
A and M, like they did for Georgia Texts, like

458
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:26,680
they did for BYU's. Same thing's gonna happen in Chicago.

459
00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:29,359
Power ratings don't lie. They don't have an opinion, they

460
00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:31,759
don't care, they don't watch the games. They strictly go

461
00:22:31,839 --> 00:22:33,799
off numbers, and numbers just don't lie.

462
00:22:35,519 --> 00:22:37,400
Speaker 1: Yanni, I know that you've got the steam room coming

463
00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:39,319
up at the top of the hour. Neon Eastern for

464
00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:43,319
anybody that missed any games. He goes through every single

465
00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:45,160
game on the board before we hit kickoff at one

466
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:47,480
pm Eastern. What else a you're promoting today, Yannie.

467
00:22:47,799 --> 00:22:50,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not even gonna fire my five percent this

468
00:22:50,759 --> 00:22:53,039
week was so strong. I said it. When I make

469
00:22:53,079 --> 00:22:55,119
a cash bet, I swear I don't remember the last

470
00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:56,839
time I've lost a big cash bet. I know I have,

471
00:22:57,160 --> 00:22:58,480
But when I say I'm going to go to the

472
00:22:58,519 --> 00:23:00,440
window because I want to get paid when this is over,

473
00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:03,160
I'm very confident. And that five percent, even though it

474
00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:05,920
was a plus two hundred, was so strong. I told Johnny,

475
00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:08,519
I'm not releasing a five percent college football or NFL

476
00:23:08,559 --> 00:23:11,079
this week, even though they're warranted. I have a couple

477
00:23:11,079 --> 00:23:13,400
of plays today that actually warn't a five percent move,

478
00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:15,279
but I don't need to do it because that plus

479
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:18,119
two hundred was that strong. So I have all four

480
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:20,279
percents are going in that package already, four of them.

481
00:23:20,279 --> 00:23:22,640
A couple more will come in there. The steam room's

482
00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:25,440
starting at noon, will go over all the NFL games.

483
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:27,920
I'll put them plus EB teasers in your pocket as well,

484
00:23:28,279 --> 00:23:31,519
some player props that pop up any live bets NBA,

485
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:34,880
College Basketball, NHL, all that good stuff. Meet me in

486
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:37,400
the steam room in about forty minutes. We'll make you

487
00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:40,440
some money today. Just stay with the bet size. Just

488
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:43,240
don't raise your bet size. I'm gonna keep winning more

489
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:46,720
than I'm losing, but we will have some bad days,

490
00:23:46,839 --> 00:23:49,400
so I never want you to over bet our edge

491
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:52,480
bet size correctly and we're gonna keep making money. That's

492
00:23:52,519 --> 00:23:53,599
the best I could do for you.

493
00:23:54,079 --> 00:23:56,599
Speaker 1: It's all about the long game. Yanni the Great, thank

494
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:59,039
you as always for joining us. Creak, Underscore Gambler and

495
00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:00,440
check them out at the steam room. Top of the

496
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:04,960
hour in Neon Eastern See you next week coming up. Now,

497
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:07,599
we've got the needs of the day. The group chat

498
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:10,200
probably mad because they know eleven twenty am Eastern time

499
00:24:10,319 --> 00:24:11,920
is when the needs come in. And we went a

500
00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:14,359
little along with Yanni there. John Murray, thank you so

501
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:17,200
much for waiting in the waiting room. You shouldn't ever

502
00:24:17,279 --> 00:24:19,559
be waiting. You are the king right Jne.

503
00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:22,920
Speaker 3: How are you doing today? Kid? What's going on? I'm

504
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:25,000
ready for? Are you ready for? What week? Is this?

505
00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:29,559
Fourteen fourteen? Oh my god, it's interesing. It's just never

506
00:24:29,599 --> 00:24:31,599
gonna end. Huh are you Are you excited about the

507
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:32,599
Ravens game today?

508
00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 2: No?

509
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:35,200
Speaker 3: Why not? What?

510
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:38,720
Speaker 1: Well, I'm excited. I'm not there because that was just miserable.

511
00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:40,880
But I'm not going to rep them. I'm going to

512
00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:43,920
wear this sweater. It's a neutral sweater. It's just comfy.

513
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:47,599
I'm not wearing gear until they stopped playing like a

514
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:48,920
bunch of morons.

515
00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:52,240
Speaker 3: Do you think that because I heard I heard the

516
00:24:52,279 --> 00:24:56,240
previous segment. Do you think that Yanni is taking a

517
00:24:56,279 --> 00:24:59,200
gamble there talking all that smack about the Bears? You know,

518
00:24:59,319 --> 00:25:03,680
the Chicago Bears fans, if you talk badly about their team,

519
00:25:04,039 --> 00:25:06,359
it's like you said something bad about like their mother

520
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:09,160
or their dog. You know, they act like it's like

521
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:10,960
a personal attack against them.

522
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:14,960
Speaker 1: Absolutely murdered by Patriots fans too earlier this month.

523
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:17,119
Speaker 3: Why what does she say about the Patriots?

524
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:18,440
Speaker 1: That they are frauds?

525
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:21,839
Speaker 3: You know? I think that. I think one mistake I

526
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:24,799
see people make in the NFL is like they just

527
00:25:24,839 --> 00:25:27,519
decide that a team is not good and they just

528
00:25:27,559 --> 00:25:29,839
go against them over and over again and they just

529
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:32,480
keep losing. And I've seen people doing that with the

530
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:36,759
Patriots and the Bears this season. The Bears are well coached.

531
00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:39,680
So are the Patriots. They're winning a lot of close games.

532
00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:40,400
I don't know.

533
00:25:41,279 --> 00:25:42,119
Speaker 2: Well, I'm not sure.

534
00:25:42,519 --> 00:25:45,400
Speaker 1: Due today that are really bad. I'm sure you're going

535
00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:48,559
to really be watching the Titans and Browns game. Is

536
00:25:48,559 --> 00:25:50,119
that going to be number one on your TV?

537
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:55,279
Speaker 3: I can't imagine myself watching any of any of the games, honestly, Like,

538
00:25:55,319 --> 00:25:57,400
I don't I like to be like, to be totally

539
00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:00,400
honest with you, I don't think I'll want I'll go

540
00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:02,640
out on the floor and I'll talk to the customers

541
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:04,920
and the games will be on. But as far as

542
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:07,279
like actually sitting down and watching, I won't watch any

543
00:26:07,279 --> 00:26:07,759
of the games.

544
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:10,079
Speaker 1: You're a hard working man. You have to be on

545
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:12,240
your feet. You've got to be running around making sure

546
00:26:12,279 --> 00:26:14,839
people aren't lighting fires at the Westgates super book.

547
00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:18,400
Speaker 3: But I think the Titans Browns game has been more.

548
00:26:19,839 --> 00:26:20,519
Speaker 1: Is it in need?

549
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:23,839
Speaker 3: Well, there's money both ways. We took some pretty big

550
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:27,880
bets on the Titans money line at plus one seventy five,

551
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:29,680
and we took some money on the Titans plus four.

552
00:26:30,319 --> 00:26:33,039
We need Cleveland for a peanut right now? Can you

553
00:26:33,079 --> 00:26:35,599
believe that we need the Browns against the Titan I

554
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:37,359
don't think. I think we've been rooting for the Titans.

555
00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:39,119
Speaker 1: Need.

556
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:43,400
Speaker 3: It's a small need. It's just a regular, regular sized,

557
00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:46,279
regular size need. I think the big, the big ones

558
00:26:46,279 --> 00:26:49,559
for us are going to be the Raiders. I almost

559
00:26:49,599 --> 00:26:53,440
said Oakland. That little hesitation there was me almost saying Oakland.

560
00:26:54,279 --> 00:26:57,839
I think we're we'll need the Las Vegas Raiders. We'll need.

561
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:00,920
Speaker 1: Is that bias though, because you're there.

562
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 3: No, it's just because, like I mean, I'm not allowed

563
00:27:03,519 --> 00:27:06,720
to say this, but the Raiders are just so the

564
00:27:06,839 --> 00:27:12,240
Raiders aren't very good, so they yeah, so well, people

565
00:27:12,279 --> 00:27:12,680
think that.

566
00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:14,519
Speaker 1: Last game was ten to seven, but that was a

567
00:27:14,559 --> 00:27:17,400
Thursday night football game, short week divisional rival. That's a

568
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:20,240
tough one to compare to. But I know they're in

569
00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:25,039
Las Vegas. I just always wonder how much that bias

570
00:27:25,079 --> 00:27:28,160
of the Vegas bias that everyone's in Vegas and they'll

571
00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:32,200
just take points with Vegas because of like here in

572
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:34,440
the East Coast, we always in New York, it's always

573
00:27:34,519 --> 00:27:39,680
very Yankees, Mets, Giants bias, Philly Philly bias. You're gonna

574
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:42,000
get the biases and the states that you're in. Uh

575
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:46,440
oh uh oh. We lost Jean Murray, God Damn they

576
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:49,240
shut you off. See, you weren't allowed to say it.

577
00:27:49,519 --> 00:27:55,039
He wasn't allowed to say that Vegas is bad. Now

578
00:27:55,079 --> 00:27:58,400
we lost John, I don't know. And he loves ref ball.

579
00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:00,720
That's what he said at the bottom. Okay, well let

580
00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:04,359
me know if John Murray is back or not. But

581
00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:07,119
he definitely got taken off air because he's not allowed

582
00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:09,400
to say the Raiders are bad. So far is a

583
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:14,720
small need for Cleveland. They need the Raiders there he is.

584
00:28:14,799 --> 00:28:15,880
Now we're back. What a chance?

585
00:28:16,039 --> 00:28:19,240
Speaker 3: All right? Technical difficulties, No, we don't. We don't. Really,

586
00:28:19,279 --> 00:28:20,960
we don't see that here as much I know what

587
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:23,759
you're talking about. We see that with the Golden Knights

588
00:28:23,759 --> 00:28:26,079
sometimes the Vegas rights in the NHL, but not so

589
00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:28,799
the Raiders are. I don't want to say the Raiders

590
00:28:28,799 --> 00:28:31,200
aren't popular here because that's not true. They are. But

591
00:28:31,599 --> 00:28:35,160
the Raiders are still more of LA's team. There's still

592
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:38,039
more of Oakland's team. And when you when you go

593
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:40,400
to a Raiders game here in Las Vegas, I've been

594
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:44,799
to a few that it's usually the opposing fans that

595
00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:45,680
are the presents.

596
00:28:46,119 --> 00:28:49,000
Speaker 4: I went to Vegas, you know, I went to the

597
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:52,200
Cowboys Raiders game maybe three weeks ago on Monday Night

598
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:53,920
and it was like eighty percent Dallas fans.

599
00:28:54,359 --> 00:28:56,519
Speaker 3: So I don't I don't see that here. If the

600
00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:59,799
Raiders are not good, which they're not this year, we'll

601
00:28:59,839 --> 00:29:02,319
need them every week. We needed them big last week,

602
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:04,839
we needed them big the week before. We're gonna need

603
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:09,400
them big this afternoon. Teasers going to Denver. Moneyline parlay

604
00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:12,440
is going to Denver. If the Raiders could somehow win,

605
00:29:13,799 --> 00:29:15,880
I think that would be our best game of the day.

606
00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:19,160
If the Raiders can somehow win this game. That seems

607
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:21,440
like a lot to ask, kid. I mean, come on,

608
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:23,880
it's a lot of time.

609
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:25,839
Speaker 2: But that's a tough one.

610
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 1: I'm sure Buck Eye Joe is going to love that

611
00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:29,359
the Raiders.

612
00:29:29,359 --> 00:29:33,039
Speaker 3: What else today, Well, you don't have to do anything,

613
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:36,079
you know, Buck Eye, Joe or Kelly. They could go

614
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:41,200
for a walk, maybe have a picnic, you know, Oh

615
00:29:41,279 --> 00:29:43,440
is it okay? Maybe a picnic's not a good idea.

616
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:47,319
I think what we're gonna need Houston tonight. I think

617
00:29:47,359 --> 00:29:49,640
on Sunday night football, I already see a lot of

618
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:52,680
money going to Kansas City in the morning. We're gonna

619
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:56,960
need the Bengals. Buffalo is a team because they've got

620
00:29:56,960 --> 00:30:00,279
that high powered offense, because they have Josh Allen, the

621
00:30:00,319 --> 00:30:03,400
public basically bets them every week. Buffalo is a very

622
00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:06,440
popular team because they're so high scoring. I get it.

623
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:10,480
We'll need the Bengals, we need Minnesota. There's a lot

624
00:30:10,519 --> 00:30:13,079
of money that came in on Washington during the week.

625
00:30:13,759 --> 00:30:16,559
I guess because Jayden well not. I guess because Jaden

626
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:22,000
Daniels is playing. That's why. And because the quarterback situation

627
00:30:22,079 --> 00:30:28,880
in Minnesota. Their quarterback I think calls himself nine. He's

628
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:32,319
not very good, right, So there's a whoever they it

629
00:30:32,319 --> 00:30:34,599
doesn't matter whoever they play at quarterback is no good.

630
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:37,240
So I think that's why he saw money on Washington.

631
00:30:37,319 --> 00:30:39,400
We need the Vikings in that game.

632
00:30:39,559 --> 00:30:43,759
Speaker 1: Okay, Raiders, Houston, Bengals, Minnesota small neat on Cleveland. What

633
00:30:43,839 --> 00:30:46,319
about some totals totals?

634
00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:50,200
Speaker 3: We need the under in the That's actually interesting. We

635
00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:52,440
need the under in the Cleveland game. They bet the

636
00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:55,200
Cleveland game over. That's a little bit unusual. I think

637
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:58,079
I've said on the show before or other shows that

638
00:30:58,079 --> 00:31:01,400
we've done together. They usually like to bet those super

639
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:05,359
low totals under. And that total right now is at

640
00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:08,640
thirty three. You don't see NFL totals that. Well, thirty

641
00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:11,160
three is the total. We'll need it under. We need

642
00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:15,480
the We actually need your game to go over. We've

643
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:17,720
taken We've taken a decent amount of money on the

644
00:31:17,839 --> 00:31:21,440
under in the Pittsburgh Baltimore game. Does Pittsburgh have a

645
00:31:21,519 --> 00:31:24,160
quarterback that's capable of completing a.

646
00:31:24,119 --> 00:31:26,680
Speaker 2: Forward pass against.

647
00:31:28,039 --> 00:31:32,279
Speaker 3: Possible? Yeah? So, look, I think there's obviously something wrong

648
00:31:32,319 --> 00:31:34,920
with Lamar Jackson. I think we saw we saw that

649
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:36,160
on Thanksgiving.

650
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:38,079
Speaker 1: Night Thursday, which is weird.

651
00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:41,920
Speaker 3: There's something wrong though, there's some kind of an injury there. Well,

652
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:44,279
we'll need that game. There's a lot of sharp money

653
00:31:44,279 --> 00:31:47,519
on Pittsburgh. By the way, you know Pittsburgh, they just

654
00:31:47,599 --> 00:31:49,799
keep betting them at six and a half and six

655
00:31:49,839 --> 00:31:52,400
we're down five and a half in that game. I

656
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:55,440
think Pittsburgh is one of the pretty large.

657
00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:58,359
Speaker 1: Spread for a rivalry that no matter who the quarterback is,

658
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:02,160
it's always a one point game. Like the average different

659
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:05,279
point differential in this series between Harbaugh and Tomlin is

660
00:32:05,279 --> 00:32:06,519
one and a half points.

661
00:32:07,039 --> 00:32:09,720
Speaker 3: What do you think of Harba? Are you sticking with him?

662
00:32:10,039 --> 00:32:13,680
What do you think? No, that's a face you just made.

663
00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:16,000
Speaker 1: I have a feeling that the team he lost the

664
00:32:16,039 --> 00:32:21,240
team because he always played They always played clean, disciplined. Granted,

665
00:32:21,279 --> 00:32:23,640
penalties were an issue, but they never had this kind

666
00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:26,720
of turnover problem. Special teams unit hasn't looked strong, and

667
00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:29,640
that's what Harbaugh is a special teams coach. They're just

668
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:33,039
playing sloppy and it was sloppy last year. They've lost

669
00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:36,160
games in the playoffs because of sloppy football. So I'm

670
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:38,519
not exactly sure what's going on over there, but it

671
00:32:38,519 --> 00:32:42,079
doesn't feel like the team's listening or caring about what

672
00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:44,480
John Harbor or anyone on the coaching staff saying. If

673
00:32:44,519 --> 00:32:48,440
you're gonna play this terrible of a football game like

674
00:32:48,519 --> 00:32:49,119
every time.

675
00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:55,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I know they've I've heard through people in

676
00:32:55,559 --> 00:32:57,640
Baltimore that are close to the team that there are

677
00:32:57,720 --> 00:32:59,559
issues going on in the front office right now.

678
00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:03,079
Speaker 1: I just don't know amongst two. Okay, I don't know

679
00:33:03,079 --> 00:33:05,000
if it's a GM problem with the owner. I don't

680
00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:06,720
know if it's head coach issue with the owner. But

681
00:33:06,759 --> 00:33:09,599
I know that Steve Bushatti, the Ravens owner, does have

682
00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:11,720
some issues going on in the front office.

683
00:33:12,119 --> 00:33:15,559
Speaker 3: And there's you just like the way you're talking and

684
00:33:15,599 --> 00:33:18,359
that look on your face, you're just like defeated. I'm

685
00:33:18,359 --> 00:33:19,240
a little worried about you.

686
00:33:19,319 --> 00:33:20,880
Speaker 1: I am, because the Ravens used to be a great

687
00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:23,160
organization and it was one of it was rated one

688
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:25,680
of the top five organizations to play for until the

689
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:27,400
last three years.

690
00:33:27,960 --> 00:33:30,680
Speaker 3: Well, here's the good news. Pitchers and catchers report in

691
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:33,839
like eight weeks and then we'll have a real sport

692
00:33:33,839 --> 00:33:34,519
to watch again.

693
00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:37,119
Speaker 1: Yeah. I know, I'm very excited about that, but we

694
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:40,079
are still we hit that time of year, John, where

695
00:33:40,519 --> 00:33:42,759
now we're getting towards the end of football, and I

696
00:33:42,839 --> 00:33:45,720
know that everyone else loves, like, I mean, March madness

697
00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:48,799
in March is fun, but I February and I don't

698
00:33:48,799 --> 00:33:49,039
love it.

699
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:50,839
Speaker 3: What are you talking about?

700
00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:52,759
Speaker 1: February the worst month of.

701
00:33:52,680 --> 00:33:55,000
Speaker 3: The year, you know, like March madness?

702
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:56,920
Speaker 1: No I do. I said, it's sad for March madness,

703
00:33:56,960 --> 00:33:59,200
but it takes time to get there. That's mid March.

704
00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:01,400
Speaker 3: I like February.

705
00:34:02,559 --> 00:34:03,400
Speaker 1: You go on vacation.

706
00:34:04,319 --> 00:34:09,760
Speaker 3: Well, there's there's soccer, NFL is over, college basketball is awesome.

707
00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:12,039
I like February. February is a next month.

708
00:34:12,559 --> 00:34:15,599
Speaker 1: I'll get weekends back in February, though, Kelly is not

709
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:18,239
making me work until baseball starts on the weekend.

710
00:34:19,119 --> 00:34:21,440
Speaker 3: Kelly has a lot of power at waser Talk. Huh

711
00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:24,280
like I I think I think I asked, like, like,

712
00:34:24,679 --> 00:34:26,440
how many more? How many more times do I have

713
00:34:26,480 --> 00:34:29,960
to do the show? I think she's insisting I do

714
00:34:30,039 --> 00:34:33,760
it to the end of the season. You know she's tough.

715
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:37,280
I think I think tomorrow night's game too. I'll tell

716
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:39,320
you guys a little bit about that game, because there

717
00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:41,440
there is quite a bit of money on that game.

718
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:46,199
That's that's Philadelphia at the Chargers. We actually right now

719
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:50,400
will need Philly for a decent amount. There's a lot

720
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:53,719
of money on the Chargers plus three plus two and

721
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:59,760
a half work plus two on the Chargers. Philadelphia just

722
00:35:00,119 --> 00:35:03,840
cannot seem to get it, get it clicking. On offense,

723
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:05,679
I don't really know how to describe it. That there's

724
00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:07,760
something wrong with them offensively. I don't know if it's

725
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:11,159
Jalen Hurts or they're just not on the same page there.

726
00:35:11,199 --> 00:35:14,280
But their offensive line is too good and Barkley is

727
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:17,559
too good for the offense to be playing like this.

728
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:20,800
I still think Philadelphia is going to figure it out. Though,

729
00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:22,679
I got I got faith in that team.

730
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:27,360
Speaker 1: We look definitely significantly stronger than the a FC this year.

731
00:35:28,199 --> 00:35:31,480
Speaker 3: It's it's definitely more top heavy because at the top

732
00:35:31,519 --> 00:35:35,000
of the NFC you've got Philadelphia, You've got the Rams,

733
00:35:35,119 --> 00:35:37,440
who I still think are really good, and then you've

734
00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:42,000
got all those teams in the NFC North and Seattle

735
00:35:42,079 --> 00:35:43,559
and San Francisco are pretty tough as well.

736
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:46,840
Speaker 1: Since there's still some value, especially in the a f C.

737
00:35:47,599 --> 00:35:51,679
Anybody that you guys would love to see get to

738
00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:54,679
the Super Bowl win the Super Bowl? Like which teams

739
00:35:54,880 --> 00:35:57,960
is the super book at the Westgate rooting.

740
00:35:57,639 --> 00:36:03,440
Speaker 3: For, Well, we don't want Kansas City, So yeah, that

741
00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:05,960
looks pretty good. I mean, I think I think the

742
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:10,199
future book looks pretty pretty safe right now. So what

743
00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:12,760
I usually root for, to be honest with you, is

744
00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:17,000
a matchup that I think will drive business for us,

745
00:36:17,719 --> 00:36:21,000
And in my opinion, that matchup would be Buffalo against anybody.

746
00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:24,639
You know, Buffalo. I think Buffalo being in the Super

747
00:36:24,679 --> 00:36:27,280
Bowl would be really good for business. I think I

748
00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:30,000
think people are a little bit tired of Kansas City,

749
00:36:30,119 --> 00:36:32,960
you know. I mean, it's enough already with them. They've

750
00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:35,039
been in I think five of the last six Super Bowls.

751
00:36:35,079 --> 00:36:37,000
I think people have had it with that, even though

752
00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:38,000
they're a great team.

753
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:44,079
Speaker 1: And I hope that Buffalo LA. Those are great matchups.

754
00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:46,000
Speaker 3: For Yeah, Buffalo LA would be good. I think. I

755
00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:48,119
think if you asked me to pick one, I'd probably

756
00:36:48,159 --> 00:36:53,960
say Buffalo Detroit. I think Buffalo. I think Detroit is

757
00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:57,039
a fun team. I think they're a fun team. I

758
00:36:57,159 --> 00:37:00,559
like their coach. I think it's funny. I'll say Buffalo

759
00:37:00,639 --> 00:37:01,159
and Detroit.

760
00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 1: That coach because he doesn't care. Dan Campbell doesn't care.

761
00:37:05,679 --> 00:37:07,639
He just wants you to run through a brick wall

762
00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:11,519
without thinking about it. And that's exactly what the energy

763
00:37:11,639 --> 00:37:12,639
is that we need.

764
00:37:12,679 --> 00:37:14,639
Speaker 2: And one last time, that's how Kelly.

765
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:16,840
Speaker 3: That's how Kelly is for you, Ariel. She just wants

766
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:18,280
you to run through that brick wall.

767
00:37:18,880 --> 00:37:20,960
Speaker 1: She'll run through for me, and then I step through

768
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:23,800
it when she does it. That's how this friendship works.

769
00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:26,119
Something the chat asked what you like to refer to

770
00:37:26,199 --> 00:37:28,679
yourself as, like, what do you call yourself?

771
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:33,719
Speaker 3: I don't what. I'm not sure that master. I think.

772
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:36,400
I think I just call myself John. I think if

773
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:40,719
it's just John, if anybody wants to come see me

774
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:43,000
at the Westgate super Book just ask for John. I'd

775
00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:46,199
be happy to go to go chat with them. I

776
00:37:46,199 --> 00:37:50,320
think I'm I consider myself very approachable, you know, I don't.

777
00:37:50,639 --> 00:37:53,199
I don't know if you and Kelly are approachable.

778
00:37:54,239 --> 00:37:54,559
Speaker 2: Currently.

779
00:37:54,639 --> 00:37:57,280
Speaker 1: When I've asked people why I'm still single, that's exactly

780
00:37:57,320 --> 00:37:57,920
the answer I.

781
00:37:58,840 --> 00:38:01,639
Speaker 3: Could see that. Actually, yeah, you guys are not as approachable.

782
00:38:02,119 --> 00:38:04,480
People just come right up to me. So just ask

783
00:38:04,519 --> 00:38:07,079
for John. I wouldn't ask. I wouldn't call myself any day.

784
00:38:07,239 --> 00:38:11,880
Speaker 1: Nice soft spoken guy. Joey over at the West Gates

785
00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:13,960
super Book in Las Vegas. Make sure to head over there.

786
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:16,400
It's the best sports book in town. John. Thanks as

787
00:38:16,440 --> 00:38:18,920
always been coming on here on a Sunday, and I

788
00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:22,119
look forward to seeing you again for forever on Sundays.

789
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:25,239
Speaker 3: I'll see you next week. I can't guarantee forever, but

790
00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:26,400
I'll see you in seven days.

791
00:38:26,639 --> 00:38:29,880
Speaker 1: See you next week, John, Well, but certainly not leavest

792
00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:32,320
here from Wager Talk. We've got Jesse Shule joining the show.

793
00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:34,519
He's gonna tell us everything he likes today. We'll hear

794
00:38:34,559 --> 00:38:37,159
what the chat likes today. How are you today, Jesse?

795
00:38:38,199 --> 00:38:39,039
Speaker 3: Doing not bad?

796
00:38:39,119 --> 00:38:43,280
Speaker 5: I'm pretty excited about some underdogs in the NFL today.

797
00:38:43,679 --> 00:38:46,079
Speaker 1: Ooh, okay, which one's your favorite?

798
00:38:46,480 --> 00:38:47,400
Speaker 5: All of them?

799
00:38:47,679 --> 00:38:48,760
Speaker 1: Everyone.

800
00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:51,800
Speaker 5: I've never actually done this, and I'm not recommending that

801
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:54,960
anybody do this, but I know that people out there

802
00:38:55,280 --> 00:38:57,840
sometimes like to just bet every dog on the board,

803
00:38:58,159 --> 00:38:59,639
and I think if there was ever a day to

804
00:38:59,679 --> 00:39:01,039
do it, today would be a good day.

805
00:39:01,079 --> 00:39:02,199
Speaker 3: I'm not doing it.

806
00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:06,079
Speaker 5: I'm not recommending that anybody do it, but there's a

807
00:39:06,119 --> 00:39:08,440
lot of dogs that look interesting to me.

808
00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:12,880
Speaker 1: Oh okay, And then I know in the chat they

809
00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:18,199
were very interested in some of these games that let's say, okay, Buffalo,

810
00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:20,760
we were just talking about that Bill's Bengals game. Are

811
00:39:20,800 --> 00:39:22,079
the Bengals one of those dogs?

812
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:25,280
Speaker 5: I don't have a strong feeling on that game. It

813
00:39:25,440 --> 00:39:29,480
just I can't trust Buffalo. You know, there's a handful

814
00:39:29,519 --> 00:39:33,039
of games where, yeah, should Buffalo win this game, should

815
00:39:33,039 --> 00:39:35,239
they be the should they win it running away?

816
00:39:35,320 --> 00:39:35,599
Speaker 3: Sure?

817
00:39:35,639 --> 00:39:38,079
Speaker 5: But if you watch them play lately, I mean, their

818
00:39:38,119 --> 00:39:42,199
defense can't be trusted. I'm not excited about laying a

819
00:39:42,199 --> 00:39:44,960
bunch of points with Buffalo until they prove and they're

820
00:39:45,000 --> 00:39:48,599
banged up so many defensive injuries too, and until they

821
00:39:48,599 --> 00:39:51,119
get healthy on defense, I'm not sure if I can trust.

822
00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:55,239
Speaker 1: Them, Okay, And then we've also got someone asking in

823
00:39:55,239 --> 00:39:57,880
the chat, well, Sam Darnold have a great game against

824
00:39:58,039 --> 00:39:59,360
the Falcons.

825
00:40:00,599 --> 00:40:04,440
Speaker 5: Most likely he will. Most likely he will, But again,

826
00:40:05,159 --> 00:40:06,880
what is that you could get a seven with the

827
00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:11,519
Atlanta I know Atlanta has been just horrible lately, but

828
00:40:11,559 --> 00:40:16,960
it feels like a good by low spot home dog indoors. Yeah,

829
00:40:17,199 --> 00:40:19,519
I think the Falcons can stay within the number.

830
00:40:19,519 --> 00:40:25,199
Speaker 1: There another game that John Murray was just talking about.

831
00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:28,719
He was saying that Raiders in Denver game. Denver has

832
00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:31,000
been laying a touchdown all week. He said that the

833
00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:33,079
book really needs the Raiders. That's their biggest one of

834
00:40:33,119 --> 00:40:33,599
the week.

835
00:40:34,119 --> 00:40:34,639
Speaker 2: Are the Raiders?

836
00:40:35,039 --> 00:40:37,199
Speaker 3: I actually really like, is there really why?

837
00:40:38,519 --> 00:40:42,159
Speaker 5: I mean I kind of think Denver's phony bo Nix

838
00:40:42,199 --> 00:40:44,599
hasn't played that well. Their defense is awesome, don't get

839
00:40:44,599 --> 00:40:46,960
me wrong, but they continue to win games. I mean,

840
00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:49,280
if you look at their last ten games, I think

841
00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:52,039
they only have two wins by more than four points.

842
00:40:52,880 --> 00:40:55,960
They're beating a lot of teams by three points. That

843
00:40:56,039 --> 00:40:57,800
are you know, and it look like the Jets and

844
00:40:57,880 --> 00:41:02,280
the Raiders on Thursday Night Football. But that Thursday Night

845
00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:05,159
Football game when they won ten to seven, wasn't an

846
00:41:05,199 --> 00:41:09,440
isolated incident. That's just how they win games. So asking

847
00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:11,559
them to cover more than a touchdown, I think is

848
00:41:11,960 --> 00:41:14,599
perhaps asking too much. And I think it's a real

849
00:41:14,639 --> 00:41:17,400
good by low spot on the Raiders. As bad as

850
00:41:17,400 --> 00:41:23,079
they've been, Gino has not thrown as many interceptions of late.

851
00:41:23,519 --> 00:41:28,039
Ashton Genty's shown some signs that he's coming along. So

852
00:41:28,159 --> 00:41:30,760
I like the Raiders plus the points, and I also

853
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:32,960
like a prop bet in this game. I like Ashton

854
00:41:33,039 --> 00:41:36,599
Genty over his receptions. That number sits at four and

855
00:41:36,639 --> 00:41:39,440
a half. He's gone over in four of his last

856
00:41:39,480 --> 00:41:42,000
five games and the only game he went under was

857
00:41:42,000 --> 00:41:44,639
that Thursday night game against Denver, but that was an

858
00:41:44,679 --> 00:41:46,679
outdoor game that was on the road. It was a

859
00:41:46,719 --> 00:41:50,360
ten to seven game, low scoring. If it's a higher

860
00:41:50,400 --> 00:41:54,079
scoring game indoors at home, I think gent can get

861
00:41:54,079 --> 00:41:56,559
more than four and a half receptions in this game.

862
00:41:57,360 --> 00:41:59,119
Speaker 1: What other props do you like? You know, I love that.

863
00:42:00,760 --> 00:42:07,079
Speaker 5: Bucky Irving for the Bucks. So Baker Mayfield's not listed

864
00:42:07,119 --> 00:42:10,079
on the injury report, but he's got a sprained ac

865
00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:12,880
joint that he was on the injury report last week

866
00:42:13,199 --> 00:42:16,840
questionable with a sprained ac joint. And I'm not a

867
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:20,360
doctor or anything, but I'm pretty sure sprained ac joints

868
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:24,800
don't just get better after a week. And I'm wondering

869
00:42:24,840 --> 00:42:27,760
if it's going to prohibit him from throwing them, pushing

870
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:31,199
the ball downfield with a lot of deep passes, and

871
00:42:31,280 --> 00:42:33,719
will he be checking down to his running back more often.

872
00:42:33,800 --> 00:42:36,920
Bucky Irving is just a phenomenal pass catcher out of

873
00:42:36,920 --> 00:42:40,559
the backfield. Anyways, it's just his second game back. He

874
00:42:40,639 --> 00:42:46,679
didn't go over this particular number for receptions last week,

875
00:42:46,760 --> 00:42:49,199
but I expect him to this week. I like his receptions,

876
00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:52,880
receiving yards and rushing and receiving yards combo. I think

877
00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:54,480
Bucky Irvings do for a big game.

878
00:42:55,360 --> 00:42:59,360
Speaker 1: Again, we haven't spoken about yet today Rams and Cardinals Rams.

879
00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:01,559
They went from minus seven and a half to minus

880
00:43:01,599 --> 00:43:04,599
eight and a half this week. Looking at the liveline,

881
00:43:04,599 --> 00:43:06,440
they're now minus nine and a half. The Rams on

882
00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:08,599
the road at Arizona total forty eight and a half.

883
00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:11,079
How live are the Cards? Or is that not a

884
00:43:11,079 --> 00:43:11,639
dog you like?

885
00:43:13,599 --> 00:43:15,519
Speaker 5: It's not a matter of a dog that I like.

886
00:43:15,639 --> 00:43:18,880
It's a matter of a favorite that I don't like.

887
00:43:18,960 --> 00:43:21,920
It's a big number. It's difficult to make a case

888
00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:25,000
for the Cardinals to be honest, but you know, any

889
00:43:25,000 --> 00:43:28,280
given Sunday, anything can happen. I don't feel like laying

890
00:43:28,320 --> 00:43:31,159
that many points with a road favorite here.

891
00:43:32,039 --> 00:43:34,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think I could do minus nine and

892
00:43:34,440 --> 00:43:37,480
a half either. Do you like the Texans this week?

893
00:43:38,440 --> 00:43:41,679
Speaker 5: I do like the Texans. I really like the Texans actually, actually,

894
00:43:42,119 --> 00:43:45,239
especially as money comes in on the Chiefs. I've seen

895
00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:47,840
a lot of people talk about Kansas City at home

896
00:43:47,920 --> 00:43:51,079
and all this stuff. Yeah, Kansas City at home by

897
00:43:51,079 --> 00:43:55,239
three points. You know, they needed overtime to beat the

898
00:43:55,960 --> 00:43:59,039
Colts in their last home game. The Texans, I mean

899
00:43:59,760 --> 00:44:03,199
feel very strongly that if you just remove the logos

900
00:44:03,239 --> 00:44:06,000
from the helmets and you view these teams based on

901
00:44:06,039 --> 00:44:09,280
the numbers and take away those logos, take away the

902
00:44:09,679 --> 00:44:14,519
names Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, they just don't match

903
00:44:14,599 --> 00:44:18,440
up very well against Houston the best defense, and Gianni

904
00:44:18,519 --> 00:44:21,480
mentioned that he doesn't think Stroud moves the needle very

905
00:44:21,559 --> 00:44:22,360
much for Houston.

906
00:44:22,440 --> 00:44:23,159
Speaker 3: I agree with.

907
00:44:23,079 --> 00:44:25,760
Speaker 5: That, but I'm not betting on Houston because I'd be

908
00:44:25,800 --> 00:44:28,440
happy to bet on Houston with Davis Mills. It's their defense.

909
00:44:29,360 --> 00:44:32,559
So I really do like Houston. Plus the points. I

910
00:44:32,639 --> 00:44:35,360
like a prop in this one too. I like Mahomes

911
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:39,559
over four and a half rushing attempts. I just think

912
00:44:39,559 --> 00:44:41,440
it's going to be difficult for him to move the

913
00:44:41,480 --> 00:44:45,199
ball in this game. He'll find himself under pressure and

914
00:44:45,719 --> 00:44:48,559
struggling to get first downs and he's going to need

915
00:44:48,920 --> 00:44:51,320
to use his legs to keep the ball, keep the

916
00:44:51,400 --> 00:44:53,800
chains moving in this game, in my opinion, So I

917
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:56,360
think Mahomes will be running the ball quite a bit

918
00:44:56,400 --> 00:44:56,920
here tonight.

919
00:44:57,880 --> 00:44:59,760
Speaker 1: Anything else stand out to you on the board.

920
00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:03,800
Speaker 5: Love the Saints, to be honest with you, I don't

921
00:45:03,800 --> 00:45:05,960
know if you saw the Saints in Miami last week

922
00:45:06,000 --> 00:45:09,960
that crazy two point conversion. They could have tied the

923
00:45:10,000 --> 00:45:12,599
game with a two point conversion, it gets run back.

924
00:45:12,679 --> 00:45:15,360
Now they're in a deeper hole, down by four. Then

925
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:18,840
they convert on an on side kick. I think Tyler

926
00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:22,239
Shug has been kind of flying under the radar how

927
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:25,039
well he's been playing replacing Spencer Ratls.

928
00:45:25,039 --> 00:45:27,760
Speaker 1: He's gone over his passing yard prop in three straight weeks.

929
00:45:28,199 --> 00:45:31,079
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean's he's been significantly better. I mean, I'm

930
00:45:31,159 --> 00:45:33,280
not trying to give him MVP award or anything, just

931
00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:36,880
better than Spencer Rattler, but It's what's important to realize

932
00:45:36,960 --> 00:45:40,719
is the Saints actually do have a good defense, like

933
00:45:41,360 --> 00:45:44,280
far better than the Bucks defense. So can that keep

934
00:45:44,320 --> 00:45:46,360
them in this game in a rivalry game.

935
00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:47,000
Speaker 3: I think it can.

936
00:45:47,199 --> 00:45:48,920
Speaker 5: I like the Saints to cover the number again.

937
00:45:49,800 --> 00:45:51,880
Speaker 1: Jesse Shill, I know that you do have a promo

938
00:45:52,000 --> 00:45:55,519
going on right now where if people use Jesse fifty

939
00:45:55,920 --> 00:45:58,840
it will take fifty percent off. Explain what package people

940
00:45:58,880 --> 00:46:01,280
can expect if they used this promo code to get

941
00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:02,119
fifty percent off.

942
00:46:03,239 --> 00:46:05,800
Speaker 5: Well, just one package on the board today, a five

943
00:46:05,880 --> 00:46:10,000
game all access. I got college basketball, I got NHL,

944
00:46:10,159 --> 00:46:14,039
and I got three NFL props. You can look forward

945
00:46:14,119 --> 00:46:21,159
to a lot of football props, sides totals, college basketball, NHL, NBA.

946
00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:25,320
I'm all over the place soccer as well. Try to

947
00:46:25,360 --> 00:46:26,719
have two or three plays a day.

948
00:46:28,599 --> 00:46:31,719
Speaker 1: Jesse Schure. Find him at Jesse's social on social media.

949
00:46:31,840 --> 00:46:33,920
Make sure to get that package. Thank you so much, Jesse,

950
00:46:34,000 --> 00:46:34,920
good luck today.

951
00:46:35,239 --> 00:46:35,679
Speaker 3: Thank you.

952
00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:39,079
Speaker 1: I've got some props to give out. I'll go down

953
00:46:39,119 --> 00:46:41,239
the board for a bunch of games, starting with one

954
00:46:41,239 --> 00:46:44,800
pm Eastern Dolphins at Jets. JETSID and Mason Taylor over

955
00:46:44,840 --> 00:46:47,840
his twelve and a half yard longest reception he's faced.

956
00:46:47,920 --> 00:46:50,679
We're going up against bottom ten defenses against tight ends.

957
00:46:50,880 --> 00:46:53,719
He's cashed this over at four or five matchups. The

958
00:46:53,719 --> 00:46:56,159
Panthers game was the only one with Tyrod and he

959
00:46:56,320 --> 00:46:58,920
ended up with three catches for thirty one yards along

960
00:46:59,000 --> 00:47:03,400
of thirteen with Taylor averaging nineteen receiving yards per game.

961
00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:06,679
So that's why I'd look at longest reception instead of

962
00:47:07,159 --> 00:47:10,519
going over on the receiving yards. So over longest reception

963
00:47:10,599 --> 00:47:13,480
the tight end, Mason Taylor, Tyler Show, as we talked

964
00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:15,880
about over two hundred and thirteen and a half passing yards.

965
00:47:15,960 --> 00:47:18,880
These teams already played once this year and Shell didn't

966
00:47:18,920 --> 00:47:22,199
go over this. However, he's gone over in three straight

967
00:47:22,239 --> 00:47:24,639
games his passing yard prop. He's thrown for at least

968
00:47:24,639 --> 00:47:27,000
two hundred and thirty nine passing yards in three straight weeks.

969
00:47:27,119 --> 00:47:30,559
The Bucks secondary's been struggling, allowing four straight quarterbacks to

970
00:47:30,559 --> 00:47:34,000
catch their overpassing yards. Sixty seven percent of quarterbacks went

971
00:47:34,039 --> 00:47:36,840
over their passing yard prop this year. Against Tampa, they've

972
00:47:36,840 --> 00:47:39,920
allowed the third most passing yards per game. With Alvin Kamara,

973
00:47:39,960 --> 00:47:42,000
the running back for the Saints out, Tyler Show is

974
00:47:42,000 --> 00:47:43,760
going to have to throw the ball, so we're gonna

975
00:47:43,760 --> 00:47:47,159
go over his passing yards this week, Commanders and Vikings,

976
00:47:47,280 --> 00:47:49,679
Aaron Jones go over his eighteen and a half receiving

977
00:47:49,760 --> 00:47:52,159
yards or his ten and a half yard longest reception.

978
00:47:52,639 --> 00:47:54,719
In the two games he faced teams bottom ten against

979
00:47:54,719 --> 00:47:57,599
pass catching backs, he went over in both against Seattle

980
00:47:57,639 --> 00:48:00,360
and Baltimore. The Commanders have allowed the fifth the most

981
00:48:00,360 --> 00:48:02,599
receiving yards per game to running backs at thirty nine

982
00:48:02,639 --> 00:48:05,199
a game. Five of the last six running backs to

983
00:48:05,199 --> 00:48:08,519
face Washington went over their receiving yards prop to go

984
00:48:08,559 --> 00:48:10,960
over there on Aaron Jones, who is the leading receiver

985
00:48:11,199 --> 00:48:14,920
for the running backs. I like Trevor Lawrence over his

986
00:48:14,960 --> 00:48:17,800
pass attempts thirty one and a half. He's averaging thirty

987
00:48:17,920 --> 00:48:20,599
six in games against teams bottom ten against the pass,

988
00:48:20,639 --> 00:48:23,280
going over in three to four six home games this

989
00:48:23,360 --> 00:48:27,079
year thirty four pass attempts average. The Colts, they've allowed

990
00:48:27,119 --> 00:48:29,159
the most pass attempts per game, the most in the

991
00:48:29,239 --> 00:48:31,639
league at thirty eight. Nine of the last ten quarterbacks

992
00:48:31,639 --> 00:48:33,639
to face the Colts went over their past attempt prop.

993
00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:36,639
You could also look at Brenton Strange, the Jags tight end,

994
00:48:36,719 --> 00:48:39,840
over his receiving yards forty three and a half. It's

995
00:48:39,840 --> 00:48:42,119
gone up from thirty nine and a half since Wednesday.

996
00:48:42,719 --> 00:48:45,519
In three games this year against defenses bottom ten. Against

997
00:48:45,559 --> 00:48:48,719
tight ends, Strange has had ninety three, fifty nine and

998
00:48:48,800 --> 00:48:51,559
seventeen yards. He's also gone over into a three home

999
00:48:51,599 --> 00:48:54,400
games this year, Colts have allowed the second most receiving

1000
00:48:54,480 --> 00:48:56,840
yards per game to tight ends, with seventy percent of

1001
00:48:56,840 --> 00:49:00,159
tight ends going over their receiving yard prop against Indy.

1002
00:49:01,000 --> 00:49:03,760
This one's a big one that people haven't realized. Jonathan

1003
00:49:03,800 --> 00:49:08,320
Taylor his rushing yard splits are very drastic there. He's

1004
00:49:08,360 --> 00:49:14,039
averaging one hundred and one one hundred and twenty nine

1005
00:49:14,119 --> 00:49:16,840
rushing yards a game at home and just seventy five

1006
00:49:16,920 --> 00:49:20,119
on the road. His rushing yard prop has dropped from

1007
00:49:20,159 --> 00:49:21,920
ninety four and a half to ninety three and a half.

1008
00:49:22,079 --> 00:49:24,679
And he's up against the Jags defense that's actually allowed

1009
00:49:24,679 --> 00:49:27,119
the least rushing yards for games to running backs this year.

1010
00:49:27,320 --> 00:49:30,239
Sixty four percent of backs have gone under against Jacksonville

1011
00:49:30,440 --> 00:49:32,920
the rushing yard prop. These two face each other again

1012
00:49:32,960 --> 00:49:35,840
in a couple of weeks at Indy. So if you

1013
00:49:35,880 --> 00:49:38,239
know Jonathan Taylor is running the football better at home,

1014
00:49:38,480 --> 00:49:40,800
then your game plan today is not to run Jonathan

1015
00:49:40,840 --> 00:49:43,840
Taylor as much, but I just think those home roads

1016
00:49:43,840 --> 00:49:46,039
splits are very drastic. So even if you don't want

1017
00:49:46,039 --> 00:49:48,079
to bet the under on Taylor, I would stay away

1018
00:49:48,119 --> 00:49:51,360
in this game, and if it hits, sorry, but those

1019
00:49:51,519 --> 00:49:53,760
rushing yard splits to be averaging one hundred and twenty

1020
00:49:53,880 --> 00:49:56,239
nine at home and seventy four at home on the road,

1021
00:49:56,280 --> 00:49:58,800
it's crazy. So I would stay away from Jonathan Taylor

1022
00:49:58,840 --> 00:50:01,559
today or take the end. I've got a lot more

1023
00:50:01,599 --> 00:50:03,360
at the prop Queen dot com. You can check out

1024
00:50:03,400 --> 00:50:05,440
all the prop Queen edges of the day every day

1025
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:07,480
straight to your inbox at the prop Queen dot com

1026
00:50:07,519 --> 00:50:11,320
for a premium subscription. It's very useful, I would say,

1027
00:50:11,360 --> 00:50:13,159
and I use props dot Cash a lot a very

1028
00:50:13,239 --> 00:50:16,159
useful tool as well, So make sure go subscribe today

1029
00:50:16,159 --> 00:50:18,000
at the prop Queen dot com to the newsletter and

1030
00:50:18,079 --> 00:50:20,119
you could get everything to your inbox. I've got a

1031
00:50:20,159 --> 00:50:23,360
bunch of props for today, pretty much almost every single

1032
00:50:23,400 --> 00:50:25,559
game on the board of at least one prop. So

1033
00:50:26,519 --> 00:50:29,559
thanks guys for tuning in. I hope that between Yannie,

1034
00:50:29,760 --> 00:50:32,880
John Murray and Jesse that we gave you guys some winners.

1035
00:50:33,360 --> 00:50:35,599
Good luck to all your bets, And yes, I am

1036
00:50:35,639 --> 00:50:37,639
a little worried about the Josh Allen passing yards with

1037
00:50:37,679 --> 00:50:40,199
Weather in Buffalo because his passing yard prop has dropped.

1038
00:50:40,360 --> 00:50:43,400
So if I lose on Josh Allen passing yards for

1039
00:50:43,440 --> 00:50:45,639
a second street week, I'm never going to be betting

1040
00:50:45,679 --> 00:50:47,920
it again. It's a really good matchup for him, going

1041
00:50:48,000 --> 00:50:50,719
up against the defense that's one of the worst against

1042
00:50:50,760 --> 00:50:53,719
the past. Trey Hendrickson is out again with that groin injury,

1043
00:50:54,000 --> 00:50:56,239
so it should be a really good game for Josh Allen,

1044
00:50:56,480 --> 00:51:00,519
except if Weather in Buffalo has an implication on that

1045
00:51:00,599 --> 00:51:02,880
which has shown it dropped from two twenty nine and

1046
00:51:02,920 --> 00:51:04,920
a half to to twenty seven and a half is

1047
00:51:04,960 --> 00:51:07,639
passing your prop today, so we will see how that

1048
00:51:07,679 --> 00:51:09,760
pans out. But I already bet you over on Wednesday,

1049
00:51:09,880 --> 00:51:13,599
so f me anyway, good luck to your rets today.

1050
00:51:13,599 --> 00:51:15,360
We will see you next week next Sunday here at

1051
00:51:15,360 --> 00:51:18,400
eleven am Eastern Time, as always on wager Talks, Last

1052
00:51:18,440 --> 00:51:18,639
Call