Speaker 1: We love Happy Sunday everybody. It is last call here
on Wager Talk. I'm the prop Queen Aria Epstein. You
know that this is the show that we bring you
all the info. You find out where the Sharps are
going with Yanni the Greek. Then we find out the
needs from over at the super Book at the Westgate
in Las Vegas, from Margaret's friend John Murray, what does
the sports book need? Do you want to be on
their side? And then we've got Jesse Schulz is going
to answer all your questions and break down what he
feels are the best sides of the day. At the
end of the show, I'll definitely give you guys some
props that I had stand out, and I give them
out earlier this week on social media to try to
beat some lines. Of course, some move in your favorite,
some stay the same, and you get ahead of some
of them. I know that we all feel that we
need to get ahead of these lines. Yes, my Bravens
Tyrone are playing the Steelers today, so I'm going to
bring my dog to the dog park right after the
show ends in about forty five minutes, and then to
be home in time for one o'clock. So that she's
tired and I can be in the zone. Granted, I
officially anti wearing Ravens gear until they prove otherwise, because
if they continue to play as sloppy as they have,
I'm not repping them. I'll support them, I'll watch them,
I'll cheer for them, i won't bet on them, and
I certainly will not be repping the gear until they
play like a normal super Bowl caliber football team. The
NFL is wide open. Everybody it has a chance. The
AFC is so weak, but let's bring on one of
our strongest, Yanni, the Greek from over in Las Vegas.
Everyone get your Odds Logic screen up Oddslogic dot com
slash prop queen follow along with the line moves the
Phillies hat is in action for Yanni today. Greek underscore gambler.
How are you? Yanni?
Speaker 2: Never better? Never better? Just a long, long weekend, but
really turned out great for us.
Speaker 3: So long.
Speaker 2: I was UFC last night, amazing, amazing, ended up hitting
a five percent at plus two hundred and gave them
out at a prop at plus five hundred. It was
just one of those days. Everything just went right. College
football was good, College bat ball was good. It's been
a really good seven days, Like picked up over seventy
units in the last seventy days, So just running really hot.
Speaker 1: And here, yeah, we've got to keep it going for
Sunday today. It's week fourteen of the NFL season. Already,
I've got some sides totals. I'm sure that you've seen
some steam come in on. I guess let's start with
one of the big games of the day. Selfishly, I'm
very curious your thoughts on this Raven Steelers game.
Speaker 2: All right, I haven't seen anything sharp on that game,
like any steam in any of the accounts so far.
It's good two way action, which isn't really the case.
Usually when you have a touchdown favorite, they're usually going
to be in the seventy to thirty range as far
as ticket split and money split. But that's just not
the case. Just not confidence, I guess from the betters
in Baltimore laying that many points open six and a half.
That was a look ahead when as low as five
and a half, now back to six. But like I said,
just seeing two way action there, even the total dip
the half a point down now back to forty three.
So just one of those games where it's better to
just book it, you know, collecting all that big without
much risk gun the head. I'd probably lay the points
with the Ravens, and I'd leaned over as well. I
think it's an over adjustment to the total. Got to
remember the look ahead on the total is about forty
seven and a half forty eight. It's since been adjusted
five points. I think that's a little bit too significant.
The only way you could bet that game now is
over or leave it alone. The under has already been adjusted.
So for me, I like Ravens and over in that game,
but not a matchup that I have any risk on.
Speaker 1: It all confusing to talk about another team in the
AFC North, the Cincinnati Bengals coming off that Thanksgiving win
in Baltimore, huge for the first game back Joe Burrow
under center turf toe injury. But now they have to
head to cold Buffalo where the Bills they were minus
five and a half. Current live line I'm seeing still
five and a half. Total has gone up even from
fifty two two and a half to fifty four and
a half. How do you see that one play out?
Speaker 2: Yeah, another game where you're getting two way action, but
the wise guys did take a position here. They took
Buffalo as soon as the line went up at minus
five and a half. So the sharps are on Buffalo.
They like them here at home. Buffalo just hasn't been consistent.
It's a team that's alternated wins and losses over the
last four In fact, they've done so over the last six.
Like I say, went in dowal't zoom out, and when
you zoom out with this team, you look over the
last eight or four and four. So I mean they've
been a five hundred football team since early late September,
early October, and I don't think there's much confidence there
from the public. Usually Buffalo's won of them teams that
gets money every single week, but that's just not the case.
In fact, I'm seeing a little more money right now
on Cincinnati. Now, obviously there's going to be a lot
of moneyline parlays and teasers with Buffalo to offset that.
But as far as three bets go, they're taking the
points with Buffalo, and I think that's a bad move.
I think this is a good spot for a Buffalo
team that has something to play for, strong home field advantage.
They won five or six games compared to only being
a five hundred team on the road, so they have
a very good, strong home field advantage and Cincinnati really
has nothing to play for. Their big game was last
week the Visional arrival at Baltimore seven point Dogs. They
won by twenty points. Almost This is has let down
written all over it in the cold on the road
at Buffalo, and Buffalo's got New England on deck. I
don't think they get caught looking ahead. This is a
game they gotta win, beat, beat Cincinnati, and then worry
about New England when they're nine and four. So I
think Buffalo cruises easily wins by double digits.
Speaker 1: Especially at home. Buffalo and Josh Allen their quarterback play
much better when you look at the home road split.
Speaker 2: Yep.
Speaker 1: The question in the group chap from hot Kebob said,
thoughts on Jags colts that one's a short spread too
of one and a half.
Speaker 2: Ooh, I think, let me see, let me just make sure.
Actually I have a position that.
Speaker 1: One such a hard one to figure out, just because
short spread one and a half have had a hot
start to the season. Kind of coming back to life.
Daniel Jones has a fibula injury. Jags are the home team.
It's a tough one.
Speaker 2: It's the offense for Indianapolis that keeps them viable. I
mean they're top five offense now. They've had a week
strength of schedule bottom six in the league, so had
an easy strength of schedule, which worries me. You should
have a much better defense when your schedule is that
week on Indianapolis side. But luckily for them, they're going
up against a Jacksonville team that's mid tier offensively, so
that defense is going to have an easier go of.
Speaker 3: It this week.
Speaker 2: That's why I actually have a position on Indianapolis. I
have Indianapolis on the money line at minus one twenty.
I think they're minus one now minus one and a half.
I think Indianapolis again, they're on the road. That's why
I see the money coming in on Jacksonville. I disagree.
I think Indianapolis is the better team. These are two
eight and four teams, but I think they're different eight
and four teams. And with Jacksonville, you're getting them at
their highest point, meaning their's stocks that they're highest. They're
coming in all three straight wins, three straight covers. They
just blew out Tennessee by twenty plus points as only
six point favorites. I just think this line should be
closer to Indianapolis minus three, so should be about a
field goal road favorite, believe it or not, and getting
them at a pick a more or less. I think
it is the gift win or lose. I think I
placed a decent bed. I'm comfortable Indianapolis on the road.
Speaker 1: Here Vikings that one. They're getting their quarterback JJ McCarthy back. Washington.
I think it's getting Jayden Daniels back. So that's why
you've seen the line flip from Minnesota minus one and
a half to now Vikings catching and plus one and
a half at home total forty three and a half. Yanny,
these games, when you've got quarterbacks in and out because
of injury, it makes it a lot tougher technically. I
guess we could say equal playing field because of the
quarterback injuries getting them both back. How would you play
this one? And did the line flip play it role
in the way that you bet it?
Speaker 2: Yeah, the wise guys are on Washington. They took him
at plus three. They took him at plus two and
a half, like you said, and the lines flip Okay,
they've placed a good bet. If you got Washington plus
three in your pocket, good job, you did your job.
Win or lose, you did your job. Now where it sits,
I think you gotta look at the other side. For me,
it's Minnesota or pass right now, because here's what you
gotta remember. The comparison has to be from the starter
to the droppole for the drop off back to the starter.
And with Mariota, he's a seasons quarterback. If you look
at his passer rating over the last three games, only
once has it been below eighty five. Once it was
over one hundred and thirty. So he's played well. And
where what's the increase? Like, it's all the narrative, and
it's all in speculation that Jaden Daniels is going to
be an upgrade maybe the past Janiel Daniels, but I
don't know about the twenty twenty five version of Daniels.
Is he going to be an improvement on Mariota. You
have to go out there and do that first. I
haven't seen it. So for me, I actually think now
you're getting the value on Minnesota. And the only reason
you know Washington is the favorite is because of the
overreaction to Jayden Daniels. Dude, they're on the road. They're
a team that's won one of six games on the road.
What business do you have being a road favorite? Like
I could see if you're a five hundred team even
on the road, but you're one in five, Bro, you've
won a single road game. What business do you have
being a favorite? Not even a half point favorite?
Speaker 3: Should you be?
Speaker 2: It makes no sense? It's dog or pass.
Speaker 1: Another question in the chat, they want to know about
this Titans and Browns game, because I actually saw a
really funny tweet that said the game should be flex
to eight am Eastern Time because this game could be
solo scoring and so boring like a European game Tennessee Brownies.
Speaker 2: But you got, dude again, what business does Cleveland have
been any kind of a significant favorite? And once you're
up over a field goal in the NFL, where that
cliche and again in Sunday is actually true, it makes
no sense. And why people are excited to bet Cleveland
to me is even more confusing. I'm a little happy
to see that the market kind of moved it back down,
because when I saw it go from three and a
half to four I'm like, what are they doing? Like what? What?
How if when you look walk into a sports book. Okay,
let's let's pretend you're walking into a casino. You walked
into the sports book. You look up on the board.
They have college basketball, they have NBA, they have NHL,
they have and they have everything. They have soccer, everything,
And the best thing you could come up with is,
I'm going to risk my money on the Cleveland Browns
as more than field goal favorites. Like, that's the best
bet I could come up with. There's six hundred options
up there, but you know what, I'm going to risk
it with the Brownies because hey, they've just had such
a good year and I think they're gonna win as favorites.
That's just ridiculous. Even if Browns go out there and
win by seventy five points, it's stupid. Go put it
on a roulette color on a number. You got a
better shot. To me, that's a waste of money. You
got a Cleveland team that's won three games in their
last seven, They've covered four in their last seven. That's it.
Every one of those games that they covered, they were underdogs,
underdogs except for one that was it Like This isn't
a team that you should be confident laying points with.
So again, if you have Cleveland laying points, I hope
they get it for you because I haven't touched that game.
But for me, it's Tennessee or pass I get it.
Tennessee's not going to be excited about either. But fuck
it's they're two bad teams. Take the points, Jesus the chat.
Speaker 1: All they want to know about are these terrible games. Now,
we got a lot of questions on the Jets and
the Dolphins. The Jets. The narrative this week fade the
Jets because they won last week. How much do you
believe that narrative?
Speaker 2: I don't because listen, that makes no They're a three
win football team, so it's like, not, why was the
third win something you're gonna fade? It doesn't make any sense,
Like where's the trend there? When they won their first game,
they were supposed to have a letdown, and instead they
came back and won the very next week as underdogs.
So no, that's just ridiculous. But you now have a
Jets team that's won five in a row meaning cover
and against the spread. In the world I live in,
and three of those five games they want outright as underdogs.
So of course the market's gonna correct, start to correct itself,
and that's what's happening here. Jets have no business being
less than a field goal favorite to Miami, and that's
why the Sharps laid the two and a half with
the Dolphins. I don't love it because you know, Dolphins again,
not a team that I have a lot of faith
on faith with, especially on the road. Again, another team
that's won one to five road games. Don't have much
confidence on them as road favorites. They'll below five hundred. Overall,
they're better at home than the road.
Speaker 3: We know that.
Speaker 2: On the flip side, Jets are better at home than
on the roads. Like, there's no real reason to lay
Miami other than piggybacking the wise guys. They're on them,
So you know, if you do that, I guess and
a game I'm gonna get involved in. If anything, I'm
going to look to tease the Jets up. If that
line stay slays the same total forty one, get them
up to eight and a half, it's a beautiful bet,
win or lose. Those are the kind of teasers I
live for.
Speaker 1: What other teaser like, would you pair that way?
Speaker 2: I would pair with either India with Jacksonville, even though
I have a bet on Indianapolis. See, my teasers are
irrelevant in my opinion, I don't care what bets I
have when a teaser. The only reason I'm using a
teaser is because I know if I could bypass the
numbers three, six and seven and not lay more than
one twenty five, I am guaranteed to have placed the
plus CV bet that where I'm now the house, I
now have the best of it, and there's nothing they
can do about it but raise the big so that
I'm no longer in that position. But luckily I still
have a book that actually gives me minus one ten
on six point teasers. Thank you Kelly in Vegas for
the connection. So they're still out there, guys, they're still
out there. You can still lay minus one ten and
get about a three percent edge. That's almost two x
what the MIT card Counting Group had. They made movies
about them, wrote books about them. We're still talking about
them thirty years later. So you can have that exact
tame edge if you just tease the same numbers three,
six and seven. Don't lay minus one twenty five are
better and right now the teams that are offering that
to you are the Jets, Jacksonville, New Orleans, Denver and
the Chargers. You have like five teasable teams right there.
If you can't place plus CB teasers today, you're doing
it wrong. Like if you can't place a bunch of
good bets today at with teasers. I promise you re
put something, reinvest into your thesis because you're doing it wrong.
No disrespect, but there's nothing but plus TV opportunities on
the board for us today. Fellas nothing but two and
a HALFS eight. Those are the numbers we want one
and a halfs that that's stealing in the NFL.
Speaker 1: Oh boy, you are making me have to go to
the window and bet some more teasers.
Speaker 2: That's great.
Speaker 1: We've got to set ourselves up for a really good
position for tonight because tonight we do have a good game. Houston,
Texans take it down the Kansas City Chiefs. You tell
me your sharp groups are doing because I saw this
line move four and a half to three and a
half Kansas City, and I mean, let'sen, Houston's got their quarterbacks. CJ.
Stroud back Kansas City is hanging on by a thread
to make the playoffs. What were the groups doing on
this one?
Speaker 2: Yeah, and don great game. I don't want to paint
myself into a corner because again not the talent, but
as the guys have been following me know the primetime games,
I've just been on fire, like the Sunday night. I
think I'm now like eighth straight where we've hit the
side in total, So like five straight weeks of like
side in total side and total side in total I
based on how they adjust the lines later, well, overly
results tells you a lot about the risk which you're
You're able to figure a lot of things out, no
handicap needed when it comes to prime time. So I'm
gonna wait before I release the play. But here's what's
sticking out to me. I can tell you for certainty
whyse guys are on Kansas City. They laid the three
with Kansas City, and I'm gonna tell you why because
even though Kansas City is what are they right now?
Are they a beare a five hundred football team? Okay?
Power rating wise power rating Kansas City is still a
top five team. Let me repeat that. Kansas City at
six and six would still be favored over at least
twenty five of the NFL teams, if not a few
more of those, maybe twenty six, twenty seven, they would
be favored over all those teams. So again, what's on
paper and what they do on the field sometimes there
are two different things. But as a sports better, all
you can do is determine what you projects gonna happen
based off what you have in front of you on paper.
That's all we have to go for. We don't know
if they're gonna wake up with a headache, if they
got in an argument with their girlfriend last night like that. Shit,
We have no idea about, but we have data in
front of us, and the data tells us Kansas City
power rating wise, on paper, should still be favored over
twenty five plus NFL teams. That's why you're looking at
them as more than a field goal against Houston, which
again you know you don't get Rich Faden Houston. They've
been a profitable football team, more or less even respectable
on the road, a five hundred team. Where with the Chiefs, though,
look at their splits, they've been so dumb. This is
the kind of home field advantage you want to look
for Okay, when if a team's ten and oh at home,
ten and o on the road, they have no home
field advantage at all. They do just as good at
home as on the road. Who cares where they're playing.
But when a team's one and five at home five
and I mean well five and one at home, like
Kansas City one and five on the road, that's a
strong home field advantage. That means this team needs to
play at home this year. Their their strength, their point
differential comes at home. That's where they're playing tonight, That's
where they're playing. So everything points to Kansas City, and
they know Strouds back. You have Houston's coming in off
big wins. They beat Buffalo, they beat Indianapolis, they won
four straight, They've covered three of four. I think they're
setting themselves up for walk into Kansas City and Mahomes
highlight reel tonight. Not sure if I'm gonna be on it,
but I I do look that agree that lean that way.
I think Kansas City is the right sign tonight. I
think the overreaction to sprout isn't warranted, and I I
just don't like that. It's for I wish I would
have got down at minus three, then I'd be happy
my job's done. But at four, I gotta I gotta
think a little deeper, because again, is that the best
bet the place at that time?
Speaker 3: We'll see.
Speaker 2: But I like Casey myself, and.
Speaker 1: I asked you about a ton of questions on the board.
But we've got a couple of minutes. What have we missed?
Where are the sharps going today? Where do you see
the steam go for it?
Speaker 2: Here here's some of some of the sharp stuff that
we didn't discuss. We talked about Miami, we talked about Washington,
we talked about Kansas City, we talked about Buffalo, Green Bay,
Green Bay Another aren't played today. You saw them open
about five five and a half. They're up to a
touchdown at my sharpest shops, square shops probably still six
and a half. Why because the recreational betters are taking Chicago.
Why because they just saw them beat the Eagles as
seven point underdogs on national TV. That they're gonna remember
what they saw last and Chicago gives them a good,
good feeling, good taste in their tummy because Chicago's gotten
them the money over the last couple of weeks. In fact,
Chicago's now won five straight games, they covered three stree
and they don't have the confidence in green Bay. But
while Chicago was beating up Philadelphia, and that's what everyone remembers.
Two days before that, green Bay went into Detroit and
slapped them around on Thanksgiving Day and that was overlooked
by what happened on Friday with the Eagles and Chicago.
Don't overlook that. Green Bay's a team not getting all
that much respect. Why because no one's made money with them.
They've won eight of twelve games, eight three and one,
but they are two games below five hundred against the spread,
so people have lost back in the Packers. There's a
good spot for them. There's a big game for them.
I don't think they're gonna have any problem with Chicago's
a team they've owned. In fact, prior to Chicago beating
them last January, they had lost how many in a
row to green Bay nine, ten, eleven, twelve. Green Bay's
owned them and covered against them. Green Bays covered eight
of the last ten. They have Chicago's number. They show
up today, they beat them by two touchdowns plus. Like
I said in bed On, it don't bother teas in Chicago.
They're going to find themselves behind this game, and green
Bay cruises on to victory. I like the Packers a lot.
I think Chicago's really really no disrespect. I have no again,
I have no bias. I could care less. I'm a
fan of no team. But here's the difference. Green Bay
really is a top top ten power rated team. I
have them about number seven right now. Chicago at nine
to three is barely cracked my top twenty. In fact,
just last week when they beat the Eagles are now
in my top twenty. But just to put in perspective
for you, I would make on my power ratings. The
sportsbook wouldn't. The sportsbooks would make Arizona favor. But I
would actually make three and nine Arizona a favorite over
Chicago on a neutral field that much. I'm telling you.
The books wouldn't do that. They would bring out Chicago
as the favorite, and the public would bet the Chicago
and the wise guys would come in and scoop up
all the value in Arizona. That's how that would play out.
But Arizona six and six, Dallas seven and five, Tampa
Bay six and six, Baltimore six and six, uh Kansas City,
all those teams would be favored over the eight and
four Chicago Bears. And the reason for that is very simple.
They've had one of the easiest strength of schedule. In fact,
only three teams had an easier strength of schedule this
year than the Chicago Bears. And even with that easy schedule,
they're barely a top twenty five defense and they're barely
a top twenty offense. You've had the easiest strength of
schedule and you're only in the top barely in the
top twenty in data. Yeah, there is phony as a
three dollars bill that the wheels will fall off for
Chicago eventually. It's just a matter of time. Told you
about them in college football, about the Phonies. We saw
the wheels fall off eventually, like they did for Texas
A and M, like they did for Georgia Texts, like
they did for BYU's. Same thing's gonna happen in Chicago.
Power ratings don't lie. They don't have an opinion, they
don't care, they don't watch the games. They strictly go
off numbers, and numbers just don't lie.
Speaker 1: Yanni, I know that you've got the steam room coming
up at the top of the hour. Neon Eastern for
anybody that missed any games. He goes through every single
game on the board before we hit kickoff at one
pm Eastern. What else a you're promoting today, Yannie.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not even gonna fire my five percent this
week was so strong. I said it. When I make
a cash bet, I swear I don't remember the last
time I've lost a big cash bet. I know I have,
But when I say I'm going to go to the
window because I want to get paid when this is over,
I'm very confident. And that five percent, even though it
was a plus two hundred, was so strong. I told Johnny,
I'm not releasing a five percent college football or NFL
this week, even though they're warranted. I have a couple
of plays today that actually warn't a five percent move,
but I don't need to do it because that plus
two hundred was that strong. So I have all four
percents are going in that package already, four of them.
A couple more will come in there. The steam room's
starting at noon, will go over all the NFL games.
I'll put them plus EB teasers in your pocket as well,
some player props that pop up any live bets NBA,
College Basketball, NHL, all that good stuff. Meet me in
the steam room in about forty minutes. We'll make you
some money today. Just stay with the bet size. Just
don't raise your bet size. I'm gonna keep winning more
than I'm losing, but we will have some bad days,
so I never want you to over bet our edge
bet size correctly and we're gonna keep making money. That's
the best I could do for you.
Speaker 1: It's all about the long game. Yanni the Great, thank
you as always for joining us. Creak, Underscore Gambler and
check them out at the steam room. Top of the
hour in Neon Eastern See you next week coming up. Now,
we've got the needs of the day. The group chat
probably mad because they know eleven twenty am Eastern time
is when the needs come in. And we went a
little along with Yanni there. John Murray, thank you so
much for waiting in the waiting room. You shouldn't ever
be waiting. You are the king right Jne.
Speaker 3: How are you doing today? Kid? What's going on? I'm
ready for? Are you ready for? What week? Is this?
Fourteen fourteen? Oh my god, it's interesing. It's just never
gonna end. Huh are you Are you excited about the
Ravens game today?
Speaker 2: No?
Speaker 3: Why not? What?
Speaker 1: Well, I'm excited. I'm not there because that was just miserable.
But I'm not going to rep them. I'm going to
wear this sweater. It's a neutral sweater. It's just comfy.
I'm not wearing gear until they stopped playing like a
bunch of morons.
Speaker 3: Do you think that because I heard I heard the
previous segment. Do you think that Yanni is taking a
gamble there talking all that smack about the Bears? You know,
the Chicago Bears fans, if you talk badly about their team,
it's like you said something bad about like their mother
or their dog. You know, they act like it's like
a personal attack against them.
Speaker 1: Absolutely murdered by Patriots fans too earlier this month.
Speaker 3: Why what does she say about the Patriots?
Speaker 1: That they are frauds?
Speaker 3: You know? I think that. I think one mistake I
see people make in the NFL is like they just
decide that a team is not good and they just
go against them over and over again and they just
keep losing. And I've seen people doing that with the
Patriots and the Bears this season. The Bears are well coached.
So are the Patriots. They're winning a lot of close games.
I don't know.
Speaker 2: Well, I'm not sure.
Speaker 1: Due today that are really bad. I'm sure you're going
to really be watching the Titans and Browns game. Is
that going to be number one on your TV?
Speaker 3: I can't imagine myself watching any of any of the games, honestly, Like,
I don't I like to be like, to be totally
honest with you, I don't think I'll want I'll go
out on the floor and I'll talk to the customers
and the games will be on. But as far as
like actually sitting down and watching, I won't watch any
of the games.
Speaker 1: You're a hard working man. You have to be on
your feet. You've got to be running around making sure
people aren't lighting fires at the Westgates super book.
Speaker 3: But I think the Titans Browns game has been more.
Speaker 1: Is it in need?
Speaker 3: Well, there's money both ways. We took some pretty big
bets on the Titans money line at plus one seventy five,
and we took some money on the Titans plus four.
We need Cleveland for a peanut right now? Can you
believe that we need the Browns against the Titan I
don't think. I think we've been rooting for the Titans.
Speaker 1: Need.
Speaker 3: It's a small need. It's just a regular, regular sized,
regular size need. I think the big, the big ones
for us are going to be the Raiders. I almost
said Oakland. That little hesitation there was me almost saying Oakland.
I think we're we'll need the Las Vegas Raiders. We'll need.
Speaker 1: Is that bias though, because you're there.
Speaker 3: No, it's just because, like I mean, I'm not allowed
to say this, but the Raiders are just so the
Raiders aren't very good, so they yeah, so well, people
think that.
Speaker 1: Last game was ten to seven, but that was a
Thursday night football game, short week divisional rival. That's a
tough one to compare to. But I know they're in
Las Vegas. I just always wonder how much that bias
of the Vegas bias that everyone's in Vegas and they'll
just take points with Vegas because of like here in
the East Coast, we always in New York, it's always
very Yankees, Mets, Giants bias, Philly Philly bias. You're gonna
get the biases and the states that you're in. Uh
oh uh oh. We lost Jean Murray, God Damn they
shut you off. See, you weren't allowed to say it.
He wasn't allowed to say that Vegas is bad. Now
we lost John, I don't know. And he loves ref ball.
That's what he said at the bottom. Okay, well let
me know if John Murray is back or not. But
he definitely got taken off air because he's not allowed
to say the Raiders are bad. So far is a
small need for Cleveland. They need the Raiders there he is.
Now we're back. What a chance?
Speaker 3: All right? Technical difficulties, No, we don't. We don't. Really,
we don't see that here as much I know what
you're talking about. We see that with the Golden Knights
sometimes the Vegas rights in the NHL, but not so
the Raiders are. I don't want to say the Raiders
aren't popular here because that's not true. They are. But
the Raiders are still more of LA's team. There's still
more of Oakland's team. And when you when you go
to a Raiders game here in Las Vegas, I've been
to a few that it's usually the opposing fans that
are the presents.
Speaker 4: I went to Vegas, you know, I went to the
Cowboys Raiders game maybe three weeks ago on Monday Night
and it was like eighty percent Dallas fans.
Speaker 3: So I don't I don't see that here. If the
Raiders are not good, which they're not this year, we'll
need them every week. We needed them big last week,
we needed them big the week before. We're gonna need
them big this afternoon. Teasers going to Denver. Moneyline parlay
is going to Denver. If the Raiders could somehow win,
I think that would be our best game of the day.
If the Raiders can somehow win this game. That seems
like a lot to ask, kid. I mean, come on,
it's a lot of time.
Speaker 2: But that's a tough one.
Speaker 1: I'm sure Buck Eye Joe is going to love that
the Raiders.
Speaker 3: What else today, Well, you don't have to do anything,
you know, Buck Eye, Joe or Kelly. They could go
for a walk, maybe have a picnic, you know, Oh
is it okay? Maybe a picnic's not a good idea.
I think what we're gonna need Houston tonight. I think
on Sunday night football, I already see a lot of
money going to Kansas City in the morning. We're gonna
need the Bengals. Buffalo is a team because they've got
that high powered offense, because they have Josh Allen, the
public basically bets them every week. Buffalo is a very
popular team because they're so high scoring. I get it.
We'll need the Bengals, we need Minnesota. There's a lot
of money that came in on Washington during the week.
I guess because Jayden well not. I guess because Jaden
Daniels is playing. That's why. And because the quarterback situation
in Minnesota. Their quarterback I think calls himself nine. He's
not very good, right, So there's a whoever they it
doesn't matter whoever they play at quarterback is no good.
So I think that's why he saw money on Washington.
We need the Vikings in that game.
Speaker 1: Okay, Raiders, Houston, Bengals, Minnesota small neat on Cleveland. What
about some totals totals?
Speaker 3: We need the under in the That's actually interesting. We
need the under in the Cleveland game. They bet the
Cleveland game over. That's a little bit unusual. I think
I've said on the show before or other shows that
we've done together. They usually like to bet those super
low totals under. And that total right now is at
thirty three. You don't see NFL totals that. Well, thirty
three is the total. We'll need it under. We need
the We actually need your game to go over. We've
taken We've taken a decent amount of money on the
under in the Pittsburgh Baltimore game. Does Pittsburgh have a
quarterback that's capable of completing a.
Speaker 2: Forward pass against.
Speaker 3: Possible? Yeah? So, look, I think there's obviously something wrong
with Lamar Jackson. I think we saw we saw that
on Thanksgiving.
Speaker 1: Night Thursday, which is weird.
Speaker 3: There's something wrong though, there's some kind of an injury there. Well,
we'll need that game. There's a lot of sharp money
on Pittsburgh. By the way, you know Pittsburgh, they just
keep betting them at six and a half and six
we're down five and a half in that game. I
think Pittsburgh is one of the pretty large.
Speaker 1: Spread for a rivalry that no matter who the quarterback is,
it's always a one point game. Like the average different
point differential in this series between Harbaugh and Tomlin is
one and a half points.
Speaker 3: What do you think of Harba? Are you sticking with him?
What do you think? No, that's a face you just made.
Speaker 1: I have a feeling that the team he lost the
team because he always played They always played clean, disciplined. Granted,
penalties were an issue, but they never had this kind
of turnover problem. Special teams unit hasn't looked strong, and
that's what Harbaugh is a special teams coach. They're just
playing sloppy and it was sloppy last year. They've lost
games in the playoffs because of sloppy football. So I'm
not exactly sure what's going on over there, but it
doesn't feel like the team's listening or caring about what
John Harbor or anyone on the coaching staff saying. If
you're gonna play this terrible of a football game like
every time.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I know they've I've heard through people in
Baltimore that are close to the team that there are
issues going on in the front office right now.
Speaker 1: I just don't know amongst two. Okay, I don't know
if it's a GM problem with the owner. I don't
know if it's head coach issue with the owner. But
I know that Steve Bushatti, the Ravens owner, does have
some issues going on in the front office.
Speaker 3: And there's you just like the way you're talking and
that look on your face, you're just like defeated. I'm
a little worried about you.
Speaker 1: I am, because the Ravens used to be a great
organization and it was one of it was rated one
of the top five organizations to play for until the
last three years.
Speaker 3: Well, here's the good news. Pitchers and catchers report in
like eight weeks and then we'll have a real sport
to watch again.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I know, I'm very excited about that, but we
are still we hit that time of year, John, where
now we're getting towards the end of football, and I
know that everyone else loves, like, I mean, March madness
in March is fun, but I February and I don't
love it.
Speaker 3: What are you talking about?
Speaker 1: February the worst month of.
Speaker 3: The year, you know, like March madness?
Speaker 1: No I do. I said, it's sad for March madness,
but it takes time to get there. That's mid March.
Speaker 3: I like February.
Speaker 1: You go on vacation.
Speaker 3: Well, there's there's soccer, NFL is over, college basketball is awesome.
I like February. February is a next month.
Speaker 1: I'll get weekends back in February, though, Kelly is not
making me work until baseball starts on the weekend.
Speaker 3: Kelly has a lot of power at waser Talk. Huh
like I I think I think I asked, like, like,
how many more? How many more times do I have
to do the show? I think she's insisting I do
it to the end of the season. You know she's tough.
I think I think tomorrow night's game too. I'll tell
you guys a little bit about that game, because there
there is quite a bit of money on that game.
That's that's Philadelphia at the Chargers. We actually right now
will need Philly for a decent amount. There's a lot
of money on the Chargers plus three plus two and
a half work plus two on the Chargers. Philadelphia just
cannot seem to get it, get it clicking. On offense,
I don't really know how to describe it. That there's
something wrong with them offensively. I don't know if it's
Jalen Hurts or they're just not on the same page there.
But their offensive line is too good and Barkley is
too good for the offense to be playing like this.
I still think Philadelphia is going to figure it out. Though,
I got I got faith in that team.
Speaker 1: We look definitely significantly stronger than the a FC this year.
Speaker 3: It's it's definitely more top heavy because at the top
of the NFC you've got Philadelphia, You've got the Rams,
who I still think are really good, and then you've
got all those teams in the NFC North and Seattle
and San Francisco are pretty tough as well.
Speaker 1: Since there's still some value, especially in the a f C.
Anybody that you guys would love to see get to
the Super Bowl win the Super Bowl? Like which teams
is the super book at the Westgate rooting.
Speaker 3: For, Well, we don't want Kansas City, So yeah, that
looks pretty good. I mean, I think I think the
future book looks pretty pretty safe right now. So what
I usually root for, to be honest with you, is
a matchup that I think will drive business for us,
And in my opinion, that matchup would be Buffalo against anybody.
You know, Buffalo. I think Buffalo being in the Super
Bowl would be really good for business. I think I
think people are a little bit tired of Kansas City,
you know. I mean, it's enough already with them. They've
been in I think five of the last six Super Bowls.
I think people have had it with that, even though
they're a great team.
Speaker 1: And I hope that Buffalo LA. Those are great matchups.
Speaker 3: For Yeah, Buffalo LA would be good. I think. I
think if you asked me to pick one, I'd probably
say Buffalo Detroit. I think Buffalo. I think Detroit is
a fun team. I think they're a fun team. I
like their coach. I think it's funny. I'll say Buffalo
and Detroit.
Speaker 1: That coach because he doesn't care. Dan Campbell doesn't care.
He just wants you to run through a brick wall
without thinking about it. And that's exactly what the energy
is that we need.
Speaker 2: And one last time, that's how Kelly.
Speaker 3: That's how Kelly is for you, Ariel. She just wants
you to run through that brick wall.
Speaker 1: She'll run through for me, and then I step through
it when she does it. That's how this friendship works.
Something the chat asked what you like to refer to
yourself as, like, what do you call yourself?
Speaker 3: I don't what. I'm not sure that master. I think.
I think I just call myself John. I think if
it's just John, if anybody wants to come see me
at the Westgate super Book just ask for John. I'd
be happy to go to go chat with them. I
think I'm I consider myself very approachable, you know, I don't.
I don't know if you and Kelly are approachable.
Speaker 2: Currently.
Speaker 1: When I've asked people why I'm still single, that's exactly
the answer I.
Speaker 3: Could see that. Actually, yeah, you guys are not as approachable.
People just come right up to me. So just ask
for John. I wouldn't ask. I wouldn't call myself any day.
Speaker 1: Nice soft spoken guy. Joey over at the West Gates
super Book in Las Vegas. Make sure to head over there.
It's the best sports book in town. John. Thanks as
always been coming on here on a Sunday, and I
look forward to seeing you again for forever on Sundays.
Speaker 3: I'll see you next week. I can't guarantee forever, but
I'll see you in seven days.
Speaker 1: See you next week, John, Well, but certainly not leavest
here from Wager Talk. We've got Jesse Shule joining the show.
He's gonna tell us everything he likes today. We'll hear
what the chat likes today. How are you today, Jesse?
Speaker 3: Doing not bad?
Speaker 5: I'm pretty excited about some underdogs in the NFL today.
Speaker 1: Ooh, okay, which one's your favorite?
Speaker 5: All of them?
Speaker 1: Everyone.
Speaker 5: I've never actually done this, and I'm not recommending that
anybody do this, but I know that people out there
sometimes like to just bet every dog on the board,
and I think if there was ever a day to
do it, today would be a good day.
Speaker 3: I'm not doing it.
Speaker 5: I'm not recommending that anybody do it, but there's a
lot of dogs that look interesting to me.
Speaker 1: Oh okay, And then I know in the chat they
were very interested in some of these games that let's say, okay, Buffalo,
we were just talking about that Bill's Bengals game. Are
the Bengals one of those dogs?
Speaker 5: I don't have a strong feeling on that game. It
just I can't trust Buffalo. You know, there's a handful
of games where, yeah, should Buffalo win this game, should
they be the should they win it running away?
Speaker 3: Sure?
Speaker 5: But if you watch them play lately, I mean, their
defense can't be trusted. I'm not excited about laying a
bunch of points with Buffalo until they prove and they're
banged up so many defensive injuries too, and until they
get healthy on defense, I'm not sure if I can trust.
Speaker 1: Them, Okay, And then we've also got someone asking in
the chat, well, Sam Darnold have a great game against
the Falcons.
Speaker 5: Most likely he will. Most likely he will, But again,
what is that you could get a seven with the
Atlanta I know Atlanta has been just horrible lately, but
it feels like a good by low spot home dog indoors. Yeah,
I think the Falcons can stay within the number.
Speaker 1: There another game that John Murray was just talking about.
He was saying that Raiders in Denver game. Denver has
been laying a touchdown all week. He said that the
book really needs the Raiders. That's their biggest one of
the week.
Speaker 2: Are the Raiders?
Speaker 3: I actually really like, is there really why?
Speaker 5: I mean I kind of think Denver's phony bo Nix
hasn't played that well. Their defense is awesome, don't get
me wrong, but they continue to win games. I mean,
if you look at their last ten games, I think
they only have two wins by more than four points.
They're beating a lot of teams by three points. That
are you know, and it look like the Jets and
the Raiders on Thursday Night Football. But that Thursday Night
Football game when they won ten to seven, wasn't an
isolated incident. That's just how they win games. So asking
them to cover more than a touchdown, I think is
perhaps asking too much. And I think it's a real
good by low spot on the Raiders. As bad as
they've been, Gino has not thrown as many interceptions of late.
Ashton Genty's shown some signs that he's coming along. So
I like the Raiders plus the points, and I also
like a prop bet in this game. I like Ashton
Genty over his receptions. That number sits at four and
a half. He's gone over in four of his last
five games and the only game he went under was
that Thursday night game against Denver, but that was an
outdoor game that was on the road. It was a
ten to seven game, low scoring. If it's a higher
scoring game indoors at home, I think gent can get
more than four and a half receptions in this game.
Speaker 1: What other props do you like? You know, I love that.
Speaker 5: Bucky Irving for the Bucks. So Baker Mayfield's not listed
on the injury report, but he's got a sprained ac
joint that he was on the injury report last week
questionable with a sprained ac joint. And I'm not a
doctor or anything, but I'm pretty sure sprained ac joints
don't just get better after a week. And I'm wondering
if it's going to prohibit him from throwing them, pushing
the ball downfield with a lot of deep passes, and
will he be checking down to his running back more often.
Bucky Irving is just a phenomenal pass catcher out of
the backfield. Anyways, it's just his second game back. He
didn't go over this particular number for receptions last week,
but I expect him to this week. I like his receptions,
receiving yards and rushing and receiving yards combo. I think
Bucky Irvings do for a big game.
Speaker 1: Again, we haven't spoken about yet today Rams and Cardinals Rams.
They went from minus seven and a half to minus
eight and a half this week. Looking at the liveline,
they're now minus nine and a half. The Rams on
the road at Arizona total forty eight and a half.
How live are the Cards? Or is that not a
dog you like?
Speaker 5: It's not a matter of a dog that I like.
It's a matter of a favorite that I don't like.
It's a big number. It's difficult to make a case
for the Cardinals to be honest, but you know, any
given Sunday, anything can happen. I don't feel like laying
that many points with a road favorite here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think I could do minus nine and
a half either. Do you like the Texans this week?
Speaker 5: I do like the Texans. I really like the Texans actually, actually,
especially as money comes in on the Chiefs. I've seen
a lot of people talk about Kansas City at home
and all this stuff. Yeah, Kansas City at home by
three points. You know, they needed overtime to beat the
Colts in their last home game. The Texans, I mean
feel very strongly that if you just remove the logos
from the helmets and you view these teams based on
the numbers and take away those logos, take away the
names Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, they just don't match
up very well against Houston the best defense, and Gianni
mentioned that he doesn't think Stroud moves the needle very
much for Houston.
Speaker 3: I agree with.
Speaker 5: That, but I'm not betting on Houston because I'd be
happy to bet on Houston with Davis Mills. It's their defense.
So I really do like Houston. Plus the points. I
like a prop in this one too. I like Mahomes
over four and a half rushing attempts. I just think
it's going to be difficult for him to move the
ball in this game. He'll find himself under pressure and
struggling to get first downs and he's going to need
to use his legs to keep the ball, keep the
chains moving in this game, in my opinion, So I
think Mahomes will be running the ball quite a bit
here tonight.
Speaker 1: Anything else stand out to you on the board.
Speaker 5: Love the Saints, to be honest with you, I don't
know if you saw the Saints in Miami last week
that crazy two point conversion. They could have tied the
game with a two point conversion, it gets run back.
Now they're in a deeper hole, down by four. Then
they convert on an on side kick. I think Tyler
Shug has been kind of flying under the radar how
well he's been playing replacing Spencer Ratls.
Speaker 1: He's gone over his passing yard prop in three straight weeks.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean's he's been significantly better. I mean, I'm
not trying to give him MVP award or anything, just
better than Spencer Rattler, but It's what's important to realize
is the Saints actually do have a good defense, like
far better than the Bucks defense. So can that keep
them in this game in a rivalry game.
Speaker 3: I think it can.
Speaker 5: I like the Saints to cover the number again.
Speaker 1: Jesse Shill, I know that you do have a promo
going on right now where if people use Jesse fifty
it will take fifty percent off. Explain what package people
can expect if they used this promo code to get
fifty percent off.
Speaker 5: Well, just one package on the board today, a five
game all access. I got college basketball, I got NHL,
and I got three NFL props. You can look forward
to a lot of football props, sides totals, college basketball, NHL, NBA.
I'm all over the place soccer as well. Try to
have two or three plays a day.
Speaker 1: Jesse Schure. Find him at Jesse's social on social media.
Make sure to get that package. Thank you so much, Jesse,
good luck today.
Speaker 3: Thank you.
Speaker 1: I've got some props to give out. I'll go down
the board for a bunch of games, starting with one
pm Eastern Dolphins at Jets. JETSID and Mason Taylor over
his twelve and a half yard longest reception he's faced.
We're going up against bottom ten defenses against tight ends.
He's cashed this over at four or five matchups. The
Panthers game was the only one with Tyrod and he
ended up with three catches for thirty one yards along
of thirteen with Taylor averaging nineteen receiving yards per game.
So that's why I'd look at longest reception instead of
going over on the receiving yards. So over longest reception
the tight end, Mason Taylor, Tyler Show, as we talked
about over two hundred and thirteen and a half passing yards.
These teams already played once this year and Shell didn't
go over this. However, he's gone over in three straight
games his passing yard prop. He's thrown for at least
two hundred and thirty nine passing yards in three straight weeks.
The Bucks secondary's been struggling, allowing four straight quarterbacks to
catch their overpassing yards. Sixty seven percent of quarterbacks went
over their passing yard prop this year. Against Tampa, they've
allowed the third most passing yards per game. With Alvin Kamara,
the running back for the Saints out, Tyler Show is
going to have to throw the ball, so we're gonna
go over his passing yards this week, Commanders and Vikings,
Aaron Jones go over his eighteen and a half receiving
yards or his ten and a half yard longest reception.
In the two games he faced teams bottom ten against
pass catching backs, he went over in both against Seattle
and Baltimore. The Commanders have allowed the fifth the most
receiving yards per game to running backs at thirty nine
a game. Five of the last six running backs to
face Washington went over their receiving yards prop to go
over there on Aaron Jones, who is the leading receiver
for the running backs. I like Trevor Lawrence over his
pass attempts thirty one and a half. He's averaging thirty
six in games against teams bottom ten against the pass,
going over in three to four six home games this
year thirty four pass attempts average. The Colts, they've allowed
the most pass attempts per game, the most in the
league at thirty eight. Nine of the last ten quarterbacks
to face the Colts went over their past attempt prop.
You could also look at Brenton Strange, the Jags tight end,
over his receiving yards forty three and a half. It's
gone up from thirty nine and a half since Wednesday.
In three games this year against defenses bottom ten. Against
tight ends, Strange has had ninety three, fifty nine and
seventeen yards. He's also gone over into a three home
games this year, Colts have allowed the second most receiving
yards per game to tight ends, with seventy percent of
tight ends going over their receiving yard prop against Indy.
This one's a big one that people haven't realized. Jonathan
Taylor his rushing yard splits are very drastic there. He's
averaging one hundred and one one hundred and twenty nine
rushing yards a game at home and just seventy five
on the road. His rushing yard prop has dropped from
ninety four and a half to ninety three and a half.
And he's up against the Jags defense that's actually allowed
the least rushing yards for games to running backs this year.
Sixty four percent of backs have gone under against Jacksonville
the rushing yard prop. These two face each other again
in a couple of weeks at Indy. So if you
know Jonathan Taylor is running the football better at home,
then your game plan today is not to run Jonathan
Taylor as much, but I just think those home roads
splits are very drastic. So even if you don't want
to bet the under on Taylor, I would stay away
in this game, and if it hits, sorry, but those
rushing yard splits to be averaging one hundred and twenty
nine at home and seventy four at home on the road,
it's crazy. So I would stay away from Jonathan Taylor
today or take the end. I've got a lot more
at the prop Queen dot com. You can check out
all the prop Queen edges of the day every day
straight to your inbox at the prop Queen dot com
for a premium subscription. It's very useful, I would say,
and I use props dot Cash a lot a very
useful tool as well, So make sure go subscribe today
at the prop Queen dot com to the newsletter and
you could get everything to your inbox. I've got a
bunch of props for today, pretty much almost every single
game on the board of at least one prop. So
thanks guys for tuning in. I hope that between Yannie,
John Murray and Jesse that we gave you guys some winners.
Good luck to all your bets, And yes, I am
a little worried about the Josh Allen passing yards with
Weather in Buffalo because his passing yard prop has dropped.
So if I lose on Josh Allen passing yards for
a second street week, I'm never going to be betting
it again. It's a really good matchup for him, going
up against the defense that's one of the worst against
the past. Trey Hendrickson is out again with that groin injury,
so it should be a really good game for Josh Allen,
except if Weather in Buffalo has an implication on that
which has shown it dropped from two twenty nine and
a half to to twenty seven and a half is
passing your prop today, so we will see how that
pans out. But I already bet you over on Wednesday,
so f me anyway, good luck to your rets today.
We will see you next week next Sunday here at
eleven am Eastern Time, as always on wager Talks, Last
Call