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<v Speaker 1>Hello, Dave.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a nice day to day after yesterday's poopy weather.

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<v Speaker 3>Monday and Tuesday were tough. That that storm really hit

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<v Speaker 3>the roads hard. But yeah, today it's nice. I'm enjoying

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<v Speaker 3>the sunshine, very very nice.

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<v Speaker 2>What do we have coming up here as we head

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<v Speaker 2>to the actual You know, we've got fourteen days until Christmas.

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<v Speaker 2>I know we're not predicting the weather out that far,

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<v Speaker 2>but is there anything you like out in the out

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<v Speaker 2>on the Pacific or the Pacific Northwest that is going

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<v Speaker 2>to give us a chance for snowy Christmas even though

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<v Speaker 2>we don't normally get that.

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<v Speaker 3>No, And I knew we would get to that question.

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<v Speaker 3>So I looked at our long range computer models while

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<v Speaker 3>I was waiting, and I can't actually see out ten

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<v Speaker 3>to fourteen days. Yesterday when I was looking, there was

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<v Speaker 3>one of the long range computer models was really robust

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<v Speaker 3>on a storm on the twenty fourth, and I was like, oh,

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<v Speaker 3>all right, we'll keep an eye on this. Well today,

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<v Speaker 3>when I looked at that same long range outlook, it's

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<v Speaker 3>not there anymore. So for right now, like you said,

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<v Speaker 3>we're fourteen days out. The seven to ten day is dry.

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<v Speaker 3>We might get a rain or snow shallow come Monday.

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<v Speaker 3>Mountains will get another inch to three inches of snow

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<v Speaker 3>late Thursday Friday, But the overall pattern, there's just nothing

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<v Speaker 3>out there that gets me excited about getting some snow

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<v Speaker 3>in here at time for Christmas.

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<v Speaker 2>How are we doing with the snow in the mountains,

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<v Speaker 2>because I know they've been getting a lot more snow

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<v Speaker 2>than we've been getting on the Front range, but I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>how are we doing at a snowpack goes We're fantastic.

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<v Speaker 3>We're over one hundred percent. Most of the basins are

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<v Speaker 3>at more than one hundred percent. Wow. The deepest snow

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<v Speaker 3>basins we have is in the southern mountains and southeast

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<v Speaker 3>Colorado is doing really well. Where they're below average a

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<v Speaker 3>little bit like eighty five to ninety percent is the

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<v Speaker 3>northwest corner of the state. They could use a little more.

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<v Speaker 3>But the Front range is doing well, and the total state,

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<v Speaker 3>I think the last time might look last Thursday, we're

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<v Speaker 3>at about one hundred and thirteen percent of average, which

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<v Speaker 3>is good this early in the season. Remember, we really

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<v Speaker 3>front load the snow water usage come the spring, so

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<v Speaker 3>to be ahead this early in the seas is fantastic.

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<v Speaker 2>That's what I was about to say, you know, we

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<v Speaker 2>have so many new people because I remember when I

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<v Speaker 2>first got here and people were talking about snowpack levels,

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<v Speaker 2>and I'm like, why do we care? Why is that important?

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<v Speaker 2>Especially if you're not a skier. But it is all

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<v Speaker 2>about our water. So that is why we talk about

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<v Speaker 2>that specifically. Now, Dave, I got a question for you.

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<v Speaker 2>So a listener said it a super cool story, like

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<v Speaker 2>super cool story about gen cast, which is a new

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<v Speaker 2>AI model that they say predicts weather, delivering faster, more

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<v Speaker 2>accurate forecasts up.

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<v Speaker 1>To fifteen days ahead.

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<v Speaker 2>Plus it's more accurate on determining the path of hurricanes,

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<v Speaker 2>which is huge. I mean, that's huge. Is this the

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<v Speaker 2>kind of stuff I mean in your industry? How much

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<v Speaker 2>are you talking about adopting these AI tools? And how

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<v Speaker 2>long do you think it will be before something like

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<v Speaker 2>this becomes a part of Fox thirty one's weather forecasting.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, it already is, and really, if you think about it,

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<v Speaker 3>forecasting as a whole is more and more computer models

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<v Speaker 3>were being folded into the process going back decades. That

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<v Speaker 3>is really AI at its beginning, because we were using

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<v Speaker 3>computer models, mathematical algorithms to kind of predict what the

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<v Speaker 3>atmosphere would look like in the future. So kind of,

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<v Speaker 3>if you think about it, all of the computer models

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<v Speaker 3>that we've been using for decades are in fact AI,

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<v Speaker 3>and currently all of the broadcasters in town and across

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<v Speaker 3>the country, for the most part, use the same set

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<v Speaker 3>of the same company. It's called the Weather Company and

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<v Speaker 3>it's owned by IBM, and they have their own AI

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<v Speaker 3>computer model do we actually show on the air every night.

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<v Speaker 3>It's beyond some of the other ones. I'm sure if

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<v Speaker 3>you're a weather geep you've heard us use terms like

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<v Speaker 3>the euro model, the cfs her, the NAM. We look

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<v Speaker 3>at all of these models, which are futuristic, they are AI.

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<v Speaker 3>They're trying to tell you what the future is going

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<v Speaker 3>to look like, and we kind of we know some

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<v Speaker 3>of them have biases. Some of them or two pass

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<v Speaker 3>too slow, too cold, too warm, and so we know

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<v Speaker 3>what those biases are, and that's where our understanding of

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<v Speaker 3>the atmosphere and making a forecast comes in to be

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<v Speaker 3>able to weed out those biases. So we have one

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<v Speaker 3>it's called the graph, and that's actually what you see

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<v Speaker 3>me for our use on the air when I'm doing

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<v Speaker 3>future casts and showing you where the snow is what

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<v Speaker 3>time it arrives, how much it might get. It's all

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<v Speaker 3>of that kind of blended the gen cast. It's interesting

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<v Speaker 3>gen cast is looking more at bigger events so that

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<v Speaker 3>emergency managers and states can brace and kind of hopefully

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<v Speaker 3>reduce the risks on the costs of destructive weather. However,

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<v Speaker 3>here's the funny thing. Gencast is run off of the

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<v Speaker 3>European model. Right. Without the European model, gen casts can't

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<v Speaker 3>stand alone learning. It's learning, but it's not there yet.

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<v Speaker 2>I just find all of this super fascinating, and it's like,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, I was talking about, I would love for

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<v Speaker 2>this to be you know, adopted in if we if

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<v Speaker 2>we just get more weather forecasts, and especially for hurricanes.

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<v Speaker 1>Because to your point that you just made, if you could.

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<v Speaker 2>Direct all of your resources to exactly the right space,

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<v Speaker 2>right so you don't have people all up and down

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<v Speaker 2>the coast of Florida buying plywood and supplies, and if

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<v Speaker 2>you had, if you could clarify that with some you know,

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<v Speaker 2>instead of the cone of uncertainty that you get, now,

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<v Speaker 2>that could be game changing.

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<v Speaker 3>That's one hundred percent, one hundred percent. And I even

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<v Speaker 3>look at it more so in the day to day forecasting,

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<v Speaker 3>so you're looking at something there that's a larger event,

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<v Speaker 3>if you will, something where let's just use your home

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<v Speaker 3>state up Florida for instance, where where the governor and

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<v Speaker 3>the emergency managers and all the task force are sitting

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<v Speaker 3>down and they're looking at these updated, high resolution AI

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<v Speaker 3>generated images to say, Okay, this is where we need

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<v Speaker 3>to put our resources and be prepared because it looks

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<v Speaker 3>like this is the bullseye. I would love to see

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<v Speaker 3>it go even further and be able to be used

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<v Speaker 3>on a day to day more localized level or forecasting.

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<v Speaker 3>Say here along the front range, I mean that storm

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<v Speaker 3>the other night. We always mandy get two or three

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<v Speaker 3>snowstorms a season that either overperform or underperform. That storm

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<v Speaker 3>we had Monday night at Tuesday overperformed in the amount

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<v Speaker 3>of snow it's delivered, especially on the southwest side where

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<v Speaker 3>places like ken Pale got six inches of snow. If

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<v Speaker 3>we can get AI to kind of be more pinpointed

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<v Speaker 3>in that direction, that may help us a little bit

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<v Speaker 3>in getting those more finite details out. You're never going

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<v Speaker 3>to get a perfect snow forecast, because I've said before

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<v Speaker 3>it's a painting. Right you stand back and you look

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<v Speaker 3>at it, you can see, oh, that shade of blue

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<v Speaker 3>is this much snow? This deeper blue, is this much snow.

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<v Speaker 3>But when you zoom in, it's a mosaic, and there's

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<v Speaker 3>going to be little squares and little communities that are

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<v Speaker 3>always going to be a little higher a little lower.

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<v Speaker 3>But if we can get that extra help, two brains

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<v Speaker 3>are better than one.

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<v Speaker 2>Yep, speaking of two brains, A lot of people on

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<v Speaker 2>the text line are asking if you have any thoughts

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<v Speaker 2>about Mike Nelson retiring tomorrow.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, you're part of the same fraternity.

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<v Speaker 3>I do, Mike and I and I'm glad you brought

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<v Speaker 3>that up. His last day is tomorrow. His last show

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<v Speaker 3>will be his late evening show, the ten o'clock over

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<v Speaker 3>on Denver seven. They had a nice going away celebration

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<v Speaker 3>for Mike last Wednesday. I attended the log with a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of the other broadcast meteorologists and of course all

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<v Speaker 3>the anchors and the behind the scenes folks that have

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<v Speaker 3>worked with them. A very nice presentation. Governor gave him

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<v Speaker 3>a proclamation for twelve twelve. He picked twelve twelve four

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<v Speaker 3>twenty four. I'll tell you the story. He picked twelve

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<v Speaker 3>twelve twenty four, because if you have that up, it's

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<v Speaker 3>forty eight. That's how long Mike has been a broadcaster

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<v Speaker 3>on LEA. Thirty eight of those yeah, thirty eight of

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<v Speaker 3>those years have been here in Denver, split between Channel

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<v Speaker 3>nine and Channel seven. And I'll just tell you something.

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<v Speaker 3>Mike has been a leader in our industry. He was

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<v Speaker 3>out there selling the first color graphics computers on TV.

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<v Speaker 3>Prior to that, it was all the magnets and the

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<v Speaker 3>dry boards, and Mike was a big beginning. Yeah, you

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<v Speaker 3>should see go watch, Go watch seven tomorrow night because

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<v Speaker 3>they'll have some great video. I've seen it over the years.

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<v Speaker 3>And Mike was the first one to call me when

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<v Speaker 3>I rolled into town almost twenty five years ago. Within

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<v Speaker 3>the first week I was here, he picked up the phone,

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<v Speaker 3>introduced himself. He says, listen, I think you do a

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<v Speaker 3>fantastic job, and I'm happy to have you in town

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<v Speaker 3>so that we as a collective group, even though we're

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<v Speaker 3>competitors and on different stations, can get the message out

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<v Speaker 3>about what the forecast is going to be. So I

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<v Speaker 3>I've known Mike for a long time. His wife Cindy

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<v Speaker 3>will see each other after he retires. But best wishes

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<v Speaker 3>to mic and it's been a long, stellar career. He's

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<v Speaker 3>well deserved his time off.

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<v Speaker 2>I got one last weather question for you, and that

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<v Speaker 2>is from Noco Dan for Dave Frasier. Our lenticular spaceship

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<v Speaker 2>clouds more common along the Front Range recently. I don't

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<v Speaker 2>remember even seeing them until the last five years or so.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it just depends on the weather pattern there. We

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<v Speaker 3>do better with lenticular clouds, and you need too ingreedy.

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<v Speaker 3>You need a westerly wind coming up and over the

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<v Speaker 3>mountains so that the air is kind of curling like

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<v Speaker 3>the curvature of a lens, and you need moisture. Sometimes

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<v Speaker 3>we can have wind events, but it's dry and you're

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<v Speaker 3>not going to see the lenticular. So what you need

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<v Speaker 3>is the right ingredients, the perfect soufflet of the right speed,

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<v Speaker 3>the right curvature of those that wind coming from west

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<v Speaker 3>to east over the mountains, and then a nice moisture

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<v Speaker 3>flow in there to kind of condense the cloud to

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<v Speaker 3>get the lenticulous. We haven't had a lot of those

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<v Speaker 3>this year. You know. One of the things that we've

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<v Speaker 3>been talking about is, I don't know if you've noticed it,

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<v Speaker 3>the leaves hung on the trees a longer this year.

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<v Speaker 1>They sure did.

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<v Speaker 3>They think, Yeah, I'm no arborous, but we think it's

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<v Speaker 3>because we just haven't had a lot of wind so

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<v Speaker 3>far this fall and winter. So I think that's been

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<v Speaker 3>part of the component, and that's probably why we haven't

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<v Speaker 3>seen a lot of articulars so far this year either.

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<v Speaker 1>I that's Dave Frasier, Fox thirty one. You can always

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<v Speaker 1>see him.

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<v Speaker 2>That is an incredibly stunningly accurate forecast over there.

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<v Speaker 1>We'll talk to you next week. My friend