Speaker 1: Hello, Dave.
Speaker 2: It's a nice day to day after yesterday's poopy weather.
Speaker 3: Monday and Tuesday were tough. That that storm really hit
Speaker 3: the roads hard. But yeah, today it's nice. I'm enjoying
Speaker 3: the sunshine, very very nice.
Speaker 2: What do we have coming up here as we head
Speaker 2: to the actual You know, we've got fourteen days until Christmas.
Speaker 2: I know we're not predicting the weather out that far,
Speaker 2: but is there anything you like out in the out
Speaker 2: on the Pacific or the Pacific Northwest that is going
Speaker 2: to give us a chance for snowy Christmas even though
Speaker 2: we don't normally get that.
Speaker 3: No, And I knew we would get to that question.
Speaker 3: So I looked at our long range computer models while
Speaker 3: I was waiting, and I can't actually see out ten
Speaker 3: to fourteen days. Yesterday when I was looking, there was
Speaker 3: one of the long range computer models was really robust
Speaker 3: on a storm on the twenty fourth, and I was like, oh,
Speaker 3: all right, we'll keep an eye on this. Well today,
Speaker 3: when I looked at that same long range outlook, it's
Speaker 3: not there anymore. So for right now, like you said,
Speaker 3: we're fourteen days out. The seven to ten day is dry.
Speaker 3: We might get a rain or snow shallow come Monday.
Speaker 3: Mountains will get another inch to three inches of snow
Speaker 3: late Thursday Friday, But the overall pattern, there's just nothing
Speaker 3: out there that gets me excited about getting some snow
Speaker 3: in here at time for Christmas.
Speaker 2: How are we doing with the snow in the mountains,
Speaker 2: because I know they've been getting a lot more snow
Speaker 2: than we've been getting on the Front range, but I mean,
Speaker 2: how are we doing at a snowpack goes We're fantastic.
Speaker 3: We're over one hundred percent. Most of the basins are
Speaker 3: at more than one hundred percent. Wow. The deepest snow
Speaker 3: basins we have is in the southern mountains and southeast
Speaker 3: Colorado is doing really well. Where they're below average a
Speaker 3: little bit like eighty five to ninety percent is the
Speaker 3: northwest corner of the state. They could use a little more.
Speaker 3: But the Front range is doing well, and the total state,
Speaker 3: I think the last time might look last Thursday, we're
Speaker 3: at about one hundred and thirteen percent of average, which
Speaker 3: is good this early in the season. Remember, we really
Speaker 3: front load the snow water usage come the spring, so
Speaker 3: to be ahead this early in the seas is fantastic.
Speaker 2: That's what I was about to say, you know, we
Speaker 2: have so many new people because I remember when I
Speaker 2: first got here and people were talking about snowpack levels,
Speaker 2: and I'm like, why do we care? Why is that important?
Speaker 2: Especially if you're not a skier. But it is all
Speaker 2: about our water. So that is why we talk about
Speaker 2: that specifically. Now, Dave, I got a question for you.
Speaker 2: So a listener said it a super cool story, like
Speaker 2: super cool story about gen cast, which is a new
Speaker 2: AI model that they say predicts weather, delivering faster, more
Speaker 2: accurate forecasts up.
Speaker 1: To fifteen days ahead.
Speaker 2: Plus it's more accurate on determining the path of hurricanes,
Speaker 2: which is huge. I mean, that's huge. Is this the
Speaker 2: kind of stuff I mean in your industry? How much
Speaker 2: are you talking about adopting these AI tools? And how
Speaker 2: long do you think it will be before something like
Speaker 2: this becomes a part of Fox thirty one's weather forecasting.
Speaker 3: Well, it already is, and really, if you think about it,
Speaker 3: forecasting as a whole is more and more computer models
Speaker 3: were being folded into the process going back decades. That
Speaker 3: is really AI at its beginning, because we were using
Speaker 3: computer models, mathematical algorithms to kind of predict what the
Speaker 3: atmosphere would look like in the future. So kind of,
Speaker 3: if you think about it, all of the computer models
Speaker 3: that we've been using for decades are in fact AI,
Speaker 3: and currently all of the broadcasters in town and across
Speaker 3: the country, for the most part, use the same set
Speaker 3: of the same company. It's called the Weather Company and
Speaker 3: it's owned by IBM, and they have their own AI
Speaker 3: computer model do we actually show on the air every night.
Speaker 3: It's beyond some of the other ones. I'm sure if
Speaker 3: you're a weather geep you've heard us use terms like
Speaker 3: the euro model, the cfs her, the NAM. We look
Speaker 3: at all of these models, which are futuristic, they are AI.
Speaker 3: They're trying to tell you what the future is going
Speaker 3: to look like, and we kind of we know some
Speaker 3: of them have biases. Some of them or two pass
Speaker 3: too slow, too cold, too warm, and so we know
Speaker 3: what those biases are, and that's where our understanding of
Speaker 3: the atmosphere and making a forecast comes in to be
Speaker 3: able to weed out those biases. So we have one
Speaker 3: it's called the graph, and that's actually what you see
Speaker 3: me for our use on the air when I'm doing
Speaker 3: future casts and showing you where the snow is what
Speaker 3: time it arrives, how much it might get. It's all
Speaker 3: of that kind of blended the gen cast. It's interesting
Speaker 3: gen cast is looking more at bigger events so that
Speaker 3: emergency managers and states can brace and kind of hopefully
Speaker 3: reduce the risks on the costs of destructive weather. However,
Speaker 3: here's the funny thing. Gencast is run off of the
Speaker 3: European model. Right. Without the European model, gen casts can't
Speaker 3: stand alone learning. It's learning, but it's not there yet.
Speaker 2: I just find all of this super fascinating, and it's like,
Speaker 2: you know, I was talking about, I would love for
Speaker 2: this to be you know, adopted in if we if
Speaker 2: we just get more weather forecasts, and especially for hurricanes.
Speaker 1: Because to your point that you just made, if you could.
Speaker 2: Direct all of your resources to exactly the right space,
Speaker 2: right so you don't have people all up and down
Speaker 2: the coast of Florida buying plywood and supplies, and if
Speaker 2: you had, if you could clarify that with some you know,
Speaker 2: instead of the cone of uncertainty that you get, now,
Speaker 2: that could be game changing.
Speaker 3: That's one hundred percent, one hundred percent. And I even
Speaker 3: look at it more so in the day to day forecasting,
Speaker 3: so you're looking at something there that's a larger event,
Speaker 3: if you will, something where let's just use your home
Speaker 3: state up Florida for instance, where where the governor and
Speaker 3: the emergency managers and all the task force are sitting
Speaker 3: down and they're looking at these updated, high resolution AI
Speaker 3: generated images to say, Okay, this is where we need
Speaker 3: to put our resources and be prepared because it looks
Speaker 3: like this is the bullseye. I would love to see
Speaker 3: it go even further and be able to be used
Speaker 3: on a day to day more localized level or forecasting.
Speaker 3: Say here along the front range, I mean that storm
Speaker 3: the other night. We always mandy get two or three
Speaker 3: snowstorms a season that either overperform or underperform. That storm
Speaker 3: we had Monday night at Tuesday overperformed in the amount
Speaker 3: of snow it's delivered, especially on the southwest side where
Speaker 3: places like ken Pale got six inches of snow. If
Speaker 3: we can get AI to kind of be more pinpointed
Speaker 3: in that direction, that may help us a little bit
Speaker 3: in getting those more finite details out. You're never going
Speaker 3: to get a perfect snow forecast, because I've said before
Speaker 3: it's a painting. Right you stand back and you look
Speaker 3: at it, you can see, oh, that shade of blue
Speaker 3: is this much snow? This deeper blue, is this much snow.
Speaker 3: But when you zoom in, it's a mosaic, and there's
Speaker 3: going to be little squares and little communities that are
Speaker 3: always going to be a little higher a little lower.
Speaker 3: But if we can get that extra help, two brains
Speaker 3: are better than one.
Speaker 2: Yep, speaking of two brains, A lot of people on
Speaker 2: the text line are asking if you have any thoughts
Speaker 2: about Mike Nelson retiring tomorrow.
Speaker 1: I mean, you're part of the same fraternity.
Speaker 3: I do, Mike and I and I'm glad you brought
Speaker 3: that up. His last day is tomorrow. His last show
Speaker 3: will be his late evening show, the ten o'clock over
Speaker 3: on Denver seven. They had a nice going away celebration
Speaker 3: for Mike last Wednesday. I attended the log with a
Speaker 3: lot of the other broadcast meteorologists and of course all
Speaker 3: the anchors and the behind the scenes folks that have
Speaker 3: worked with them. A very nice presentation. Governor gave him
Speaker 3: a proclamation for twelve twelve. He picked twelve twelve four
Speaker 3: twenty four. I'll tell you the story. He picked twelve
Speaker 3: twelve twenty four, because if you have that up, it's
Speaker 3: forty eight. That's how long Mike has been a broadcaster
Speaker 3: on LEA. Thirty eight of those yeah, thirty eight of
Speaker 3: those years have been here in Denver, split between Channel
Speaker 3: nine and Channel seven. And I'll just tell you something.
Speaker 3: Mike has been a leader in our industry. He was
Speaker 3: out there selling the first color graphics computers on TV.
Speaker 3: Prior to that, it was all the magnets and the
Speaker 3: dry boards, and Mike was a big beginning. Yeah, you
Speaker 3: should see go watch, Go watch seven tomorrow night because
Speaker 3: they'll have some great video. I've seen it over the years.
Speaker 3: And Mike was the first one to call me when
Speaker 3: I rolled into town almost twenty five years ago. Within
Speaker 3: the first week I was here, he picked up the phone,
Speaker 3: introduced himself. He says, listen, I think you do a
Speaker 3: fantastic job, and I'm happy to have you in town
Speaker 3: so that we as a collective group, even though we're
Speaker 3: competitors and on different stations, can get the message out
Speaker 3: about what the forecast is going to be. So I
Speaker 3: I've known Mike for a long time. His wife Cindy
Speaker 3: will see each other after he retires. But best wishes
Speaker 3: to mic and it's been a long, stellar career. He's
Speaker 3: well deserved his time off.
Speaker 2: I got one last weather question for you, and that
Speaker 2: is from Noco Dan for Dave Frasier. Our lenticular spaceship
Speaker 2: clouds more common along the Front Range recently. I don't
Speaker 2: remember even seeing them until the last five years or so.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it just depends on the weather pattern there. We
Speaker 3: do better with lenticular clouds, and you need too ingreedy.
Speaker 3: You need a westerly wind coming up and over the
Speaker 3: mountains so that the air is kind of curling like
Speaker 3: the curvature of a lens, and you need moisture. Sometimes
Speaker 3: we can have wind events, but it's dry and you're
Speaker 3: not going to see the lenticular. So what you need
Speaker 3: is the right ingredients, the perfect soufflet of the right speed,
Speaker 3: the right curvature of those that wind coming from west
Speaker 3: to east over the mountains, and then a nice moisture
Speaker 3: flow in there to kind of condense the cloud to
Speaker 3: get the lenticulous. We haven't had a lot of those
Speaker 3: this year. You know. One of the things that we've
Speaker 3: been talking about is, I don't know if you've noticed it,
Speaker 3: the leaves hung on the trees a longer this year.
Speaker 1: They sure did.
Speaker 3: They think, Yeah, I'm no arborous, but we think it's
Speaker 3: because we just haven't had a lot of wind so
Speaker 3: far this fall and winter. So I think that's been
Speaker 3: part of the component, and that's probably why we haven't
Speaker 3: seen a lot of articulars so far this year either.
Speaker 1: I that's Dave Frasier, Fox thirty one. You can always
Speaker 1: see him.
Speaker 2: That is an incredibly stunningly accurate forecast over there.
Speaker 1: We'll talk to you next week. My friend