WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>Hey, it's Alex with the Token Metrics Daily Pulse for

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<v Speaker 1>April fourth, twenty twenty six. The market looks calm on

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<v Speaker 1>the surface, it is not calm underneath. Let's get into it,

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<v Speaker 1>but first a quick word from our sponsor. Okay, so

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<v Speaker 1>here's what's happening. Bitcoin is sitting right around sixty seven

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<v Speaker 1>thousand dollars up less than one percent, basically flat. And

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<v Speaker 1>if that's all you looked at today, you think nothing

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<v Speaker 1>was happening. But here's what's actually going on under the hood.

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<v Speaker 1>Large holders, the whales who've been in this market since

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<v Speaker 1>the last cycle, dumped nearly one hundred and eighty eight

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<v Speaker 1>thousand bitcoin over the past ninety days. At the same time,

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<v Speaker 1>net demand is contracting at sixty three thousand bitcoin per month.

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<v Speaker 1>That means the market is losing more buyers than it's

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<v Speaker 1>gaining every single month, and yet institutions keep buying. So

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<v Speaker 1>you've got this weird situation where the price holds, but

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<v Speaker 1>the people selling are the ones who know this market best,

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<v Speaker 1>and the people if buying are the ones who are

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<v Speaker 1>newest to it. That's not a healthy handoff. That's old

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<v Speaker 1>money cashing out into new money's excitement and Meanwhile, bears

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<v Speaker 1>are piling into shorts, right into a potential squeeze, and

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<v Speaker 1>that's exactly where we're headed next. So where does the

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<v Speaker 1>rest of the market stand? Pretty quiet, honestly, Thethereum barely moved.

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<v Speaker 1>It's just over two thousand dollars, which is basically unchanged.

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<v Speaker 1>Solana is around eighty dollars, up just under one percent.

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<v Speaker 1>Total market cap is sitting around two point four trillion.

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<v Speaker 1>Bitcoin dominance is a fifty six percent, which tells you

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<v Speaker 1>all coins aren't getting much love right now. DeFi total

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<v Speaker 1>value locked is around ninety to three billion. Nothing screaming

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<v Speaker 1>in either direction on price, but the narrative rotation underneath

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<v Speaker 1>is interesting. Deepen that's decentralized physical infrastructure networks think wireless

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<v Speaker 1>networks and storage run by tokenholders is up over twenty

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<v Speaker 1>percent this week, meme coin up fourteen percent, AI tokens

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<v Speaker 1>up nearly thirteen. Meanwhile, DeFi and smart contract platforms are

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<v Speaker 1>both down around five percent. So money is moving, it's

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<v Speaker 1>just moving towards the speculative end of the spectrum, away

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<v Speaker 1>from the infrastructure place. Make of that what you will.

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<v Speaker 1>Prediction markets are also worth a look here. Sixty five

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<v Speaker 1>and a half percent probability that bitcoin hits sixty thousand

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<v Speaker 1>before it hits eighty thousand. The crowd is leaning bearish,

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<v Speaker 1>but almost nobody is betting on a real crash. The

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<v Speaker 1>odds of bitcoin touching forty thousand this month are basically

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<v Speaker 1>zero according to the markets. Bearish but not catastrophist. That's

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<v Speaker 1>the vibe, all right, So what's actually driving all this?

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<v Speaker 1>Let me walk you through the five stories that matter today. First,

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<v Speaker 1>the demand picture. Five separate data sources are telling the

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<v Speaker 1>same story about bitcoin right now, and it's not comfortable.

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<v Speaker 1>Net demand is negatative sixty three thousand bitcoin per month.

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<v Speaker 1>Institutions are buying. That part's real, but the sellers are

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<v Speaker 1>the large holders who've been here since the last cycle.

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<v Speaker 1>The technical term for what's happening is supply absorption, which

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<v Speaker 1>just means institutions are mopping up what whales are offloading.

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<v Speaker 1>The price stays stable, but the underlying order book is

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<v Speaker 1>slowly deflating. Think of it like a tire with a

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<v Speaker 1>slow leak. It looks fine until it doesn't. The number

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<v Speaker 1>to watch if that net demand figure flips from negative

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<v Speaker 1>to zero or above in the next week, the institutional

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<v Speaker 1>bid is winning. If it stays negative while whale selling continues.

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<v Speaker 1>The price support is borrowed, not built. Second story, and

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<v Speaker 1>this one's a real tension. Bears are short into a

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<v Speaker 1>squeeze setup. There's two and a half billion dollars in

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<v Speaker 1>short liquidations stacked right around seventy two thousand dollars. Here's

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<v Speaker 1>why that matters. If Bitcoin rallies to that level for

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<v Speaker 1>any reason, those shorts wiped out automatically, their forced by

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<v Speaker 1>orders fuel to move higher. New longs pile in on

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<v Speaker 1>the momentum, and suddenly a weak fundamentals market looks like

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<v Speaker 1>a breakout. It's the oldest trick in crypto. The bears

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<v Speaker 1>aren't wrong about the demand picture, we just covered that,

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<v Speaker 1>but they might just be wrong about the timing, and

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<v Speaker 1>in this market, timing is everything. If bitcoin closes above

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<v Speaker 1>about sixty nine and a half thousand on heavy volume

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<v Speaker 1>in the next two days, the squeeze is probably starting.

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<v Speaker 1>If it stalls below sixty eight thousand, bears survive and

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<v Speaker 1>the weak demand story reasserts. Third Charles Schwab, This one's

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<v Speaker 1>actually big. Schwab is planning to launch spot Bitcoin and

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<v Speaker 1>Ethereum trading, not an ETF. Actual Spot trading in the

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<v Speaker 1>first half of this year. Schwab has over thirty five

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<v Speaker 1>million brokerage accounts. That's your parents brokerage, your uncle's retirement

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<v Speaker 1>account adjacent app When someone with the Schwab account can

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<v Speaker 1>buy bitcoin the same way by applestock, the is crypto

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<v Speaker 1>real conversation is over. The question just becomes which assets

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<v Speaker 1>they offer next. Watch for an official launch data announcement

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<v Speaker 1>this week. If they confirm before June thirtieth, expect a

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<v Speaker 1>short term positive reaction in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Fourth Solana

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<v Speaker 1>and quantum computing. Okay, so this one's a bit more technical,

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<v Speaker 1>but stay with me because it matters the short version.

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<v Speaker 1>Quantum computers, if they get powerful enough, could theoretically crack

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<v Speaker 1>the cryptography that protects crypto wallets. Google published research suggesting

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<v Speaker 1>nearly seven million bitcoin are sitting in addresses that could

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<v Speaker 1>be exposed now. Solana's specific problem is that its entire

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<v Speaker 1>competitive advantage is speed. Post quantum cryptography, the kind of

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<v Speaker 1>encryption that would be quantum resistant is computationally heavier. Implementing

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<v Speaker 1>it without slowing the chain down is an unsolved engineering problem.

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<v Speaker 1>Ethereum is already planning for this. Bitcoin developers are still

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<v Speaker 1>debating it. Solana is at least asking the right questions,

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<v Speaker 1>but asking and solving are very different things. This isn't

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<v Speaker 1>Tomorrow's problem, but it's not science fiction either. Fifth story

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<v Speaker 1>and this one reframes everything else. Large bitcoin holders the

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<v Speaker 1>richest cohort lost an average of three hundred and thirty

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<v Speaker 1>seven million dollars per day throughout all of Q one

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty six, every single day for three months straight.

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<v Speaker 1>Two things can be true at once. Institutions are buying

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<v Speaker 1>with optimism about the future, and the people who've been

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<v Speaker 1>in this market the longest are losing the most right now.

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<v Speaker 1>When the people who know the most about this market

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<v Speaker 1>are on the wrong side of it. That's worth sitting

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<v Speaker 1>with quick hits before we get to risks. Tether made

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<v Speaker 1>delay of fundraising round. They're reportedly unwilling to accept evaluation

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<v Speaker 1>below five hundred billion dollars, and institutional appetite might not

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<v Speaker 1>be there at that number. That's a signal about how

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<v Speaker 1>stretched private crypto valuations have gotten. Nevada extend its ban

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<v Speaker 1>on cal She's sports prediction markets. A judge ruled they're

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<v Speaker 1>indistinguishable from gambling, which is a setback for the whole

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<v Speaker 1>prediction market industry. Bitcoin minor Mara is cutting staff even

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<v Speaker 1>while sitting on over a billion dollars in bitcoin. Operational

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<v Speaker 1>costs are squeezing them even as their treasury appreciates. A

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<v Speaker 1>DeFi lending protocol called high Profile got its domain hijacked.

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<v Speaker 1>Users were warned not to interact with the site. Classic

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<v Speaker 1>DNS attack still one of the most underrated attack vectors

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<v Speaker 1>in DeFi. And Leapwallet, one of the most used wallets

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<v Speaker 1>in the Cosmos ecosystem, is shutting down another piece of

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<v Speaker 1>infrastructure gone, which raises real questions about developer sustainability in

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<v Speaker 1>smaller layer one ecosystems. All right, before we get into

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<v Speaker 1>the risks, quick word from our sponsor. Okay, we're back.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's talk about what to watch for. So what should

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<v Speaker 1>you actually be watching out for? Three things on my radar.

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<v Speaker 1>One whale distribution into institutional demand. When large holders sell

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<v Speaker 1>to ETF buyers, the price can stay stable while the

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<v Speaker 1>ownership quality quietly degrades. Institutions are steady accumulators until something

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<v Speaker 1>changes their thesis. If institutional flows slow while whales keep selling,

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<v Speaker 1>there's no bid left to catch the price. Two the

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<v Speaker 1>short squeeze creating a false signal. A mechanical rally to

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<v Speaker 1>seventy two thousand could look exactly like a trend reversal

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<v Speaker 1>when it's actually just forced buying. If the squeeze fires

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<v Speaker 1>without the demand fundamentals improving underneath it, anyone who chases

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<v Speaker 1>that move is walking into a distribution event. Three. The

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<v Speaker 1>quantum computing narrative moving faster than the protocols can respond.

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<v Speaker 1>The Google headline about cracking Bitcoin in nine minutes is

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<v Speaker 1>already circulating widely. If that story gets amplified in a

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<v Speaker 1>major media cycle, it could trigger panic selling from holders

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<v Speaker 1>with older wallet formats, regardless of whether the actual threat

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<v Speaker 1>is anywhere close to eminent. Narrative risk is real risk.

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<v Speaker 1>Looking ahead at the next week. Three things I'm watching

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<v Speaker 1>Schwab's official launch announcement. If they confirm a date before

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<v Speaker 1>June thirtieth, that's a genuine catalyst for Bitcoin and ethereum.

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<v Speaker 1>The seventy two thousand dollars short squeeze level any session

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<v Speaker 1>this week could be the one, and if it triggers,

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<v Speaker 1>it moves fast. And Tether's fundraising decision. If they pull

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<v Speaker 1>the rays rather than accept below their five hundred billion valuation,

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<v Speaker 1>that's a sentiment read for the entire private crypto market,

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<v Speaker 1>not just tether. That's the pulse for today. If you

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<v Speaker 1>want the full written breakdown with all the charts and

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<v Speaker 1>source links, head over to the newsletter at tokenmetrics dot com.

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<v Speaker 1>Everything we covered is there with the data behind it.

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<v Speaker 1>And if you're finding this useful, subscribe to the podcast

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<v Speaker 1>and share it with someone who's trying to make sense

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<v Speaker 1>of this market. This is educational content, not in estment advice.

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<v Speaker 1>Always do your own research. I'm Alex, See you next time.