Speaker 1: Welcome to Wage You Talk today, the gold standard of
sports betting shows, where we talk the talk and walk
the walk. It's Monday, and we're starting the week with
a loaded lineup. Johanny the Greek is here with the
Steve Report. Crack Man gonna bring a Monday Night football prop.
We're gonna react to week four, go over where the
books won, where the public one, go over some props
and fantasy football winners and losers, and Steve Merrill's gonna
join us to talk Bengals Broncos, along with MLB playoffs
including Red Sox and Yankees. If you're betting this week,
this is where you get the sharpest edge. All right,
that's our new intro for the show. Everybody did great
submitting submitting some really really good intros. There were two
that I really liked. The gold Standard of sports betting
shows was good. And then talk the talk and walk
the walk. But there were a couple of notables here. Dan,
somebody said, are you ready for wager Talk. It's time
to bang with Andy Lang. I thought it was a
little good. It's the wager Talk after hours. Let's wager
talk after hours. It was a touch aggressive, but but uh,
now go. Stomper sent that one in This one was funny.
Welcome to wager Talk today. Fade this guy. I got
a kick out of that one. I gotta I gotta
that one. But he always says, follow her faith. I
hope you hope you cash him, don't trash him. I
don't care if you're following her faith and you're watching
baby do whatever. It's pretty it's pretty good. And Mark
Valdez had a great one. I I kind of know Mark.
It's it's it's as corny and great as it gets.
Welcome the wager Talk. You know what time it is,
it's lock oh clock.
Speaker 2: Oh god, I know some I know some some Twitter
accounts that I'm sure would be really happy about that.
Speaker 1: It's so funny, so so funny. So anyway, thank you
guys for all those emissions. They're great. We're gonna go
with the gold standard to talk to the talk and
walk the walk. But Bang with Andy Lang is an
absolute Alzheimer. So all right, let's get started with with
Yanni to go over the steam report. I saw you
lat Bang with Andy Lang? Pretty so how are you
on this Monday? Yanni?
Speaker 3: Never better man. We had a great steam room yesterday
ended up going ten to two in the NFL fourteen
and seven week In college football, it's just been amazing.
I'm three units shy of being up one hundred units
already in the college football season, already out forty five
units through three weeks of the NFL regular season. It's
just been that kind of year so far, and it's
what I expected. Again, not to tell, but I'm working
right now with the sharpest groups I've been with in
a long time, and as far as the major sports go,
NBA college basketball, college football, NFL baseball, I have so
much confidence and working with them and being able to
filter the information because it's just so much. I'm getting
that just being able to filter through it some things
conflict and yeah, so far, so good man. And it's
September's barely We're just that of September, so we used
to have October, November, December, like the best is still ahead.
So I'm just really excited about what's coming up for us.
Speaker 1: Nice, let's talk steam report. Let's see where the action is.
We can start with Monday night football. It doesn't look
like a whole lot of big, big line moves. It
looks like the money that came in on Denver's probably
already been in there. So what are you seeing for tonight?
Speaker 3: Yeah, And it's a perfect example of just how tight
the NFL betting market is, how difficult it is. And
once they have some data under them, the books are
extremely confident in their numbers and you're not going to
see big line movements, and that is the reflection of inefficiency.
You want to look for markets where the lines are
moving significantly. Again, that reflects an inefficient market. When they're
tight like this, it makes it hard to beat. Here's
what we're looking at with Miami. Miami's look ahead was
minus two and a half. They went to three immediately,
back to two and a half, back to three, back
to two and a half, back to three. So currently
sitting at two and a half juiced good two AA action.
You would think it would be all one side in Miami,
but that's just not the case because you're looking at
two oh and three teams. And more importantly, if you
look at point differential, the Jets look to be even
like they're better. The Jets are zher and three, but
they're two and one against the spread, so they've outperformed
the betting market, they only have a minus fourteen point
differential even though they've lost three games, so you know,
chalk up some bad luck, some turnovers, some penalties, and
they could be a one and two team, a two
and one team, who knows. But Miami, they're minus thirty
nine point differential in their three losses, so they have
to figure some things out, and I think the market
reflects that good two a action on the total as well.
Always a little heavier on the over, but nothing really
sticking out. In the second game Cincinnati and de you
touched on it, the look ahead on Denver was minus six.
That guy hit immediately to seven. Since then, it's just
been sitting at around seven seven and a half and
not getting much one sided action. Another good balance for
the books. That's why they haven't really had to make
much adjustment. And you're looking at a one in two
team in Denver that has a plus four point differential,
so again they're one and two, but they have a
positive point differential. On the flip side, you have a
Cincinnati team that's two and one with a negative thirty
three point differential because they've gotten blown out in that
one game. So two very different teams as far as
how they've performed heading into this Monday Night football. But
it shows you what the power ratings reflect in the NFL.
And that's why we're looking at Denver being such a
heavy favorite. The record be damned, the Vegas doesn't care.
We kind of saw that in college football, where we
could touch on that. You look at the rankings and
you look at true power ratings and they just don't
reflect each other in a lot of spots, and you
were able to take advantage of it, like Alabama on Saturday,
where most power ratings had them way well, not way above,
but above Georgia. So yeah, I think this is a
case of Monday Night football where two teams trying to
figure it out, with Miami and the Jets, no one
confident in either. And then in the second game, a
one and two team at home that's a touchdown favorite.
Hard to get attracted to that. But then Cincinnati again
not world beither eithers. So I think these are two
good games for the books where I don't think they're
gonna have a need. I mean, they're always gonna prefer
one side over the other, but because we have to
lay eleven to win ten, I think they're gonna have
good enough balance where regardless of outcome, throwing the teasers,
throw in the parlays, throwing the negative v shit and
they're gonna end up turning a profit when the dust settles.
Speaker 1: Any I see the line has already moved on Thursday
Night football. I'm assuming that's because of injuries and such
to san Fran And then there's a line that makes
no sense to me on Sunday. I'll tell this to
you after because I'm curious if you landed on this
as well. So what are you seeing for the week
five lines?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 3: And another thing that again we got to touch on.
Pay attention to the look aheads because you're gonna it's
gonna look like a lot of times like it's a
big line movement. But after the opener today, what they
put up today, then pay attention to there after that
what it moves. And since that we haven't seen. I mean,
you expected Dallas because Dallas looked good yesterday. We haven't
seen the Jets play yet tonight. So immediately you saw
some Dallas money come in off of that look ahead.
You saw Houston money come in Baltimore being faded, which
is a rarity. But they were almost a double digit favorite.
Now they're below that key number of seven. Even at
home against Houston and in Seattle. Seattle, Tampa, Bay, Philly
went right through them, and Tampa was actually getting public
money and a lot of love yesterday catching three and
a half points against Philadelphia, and you're seeing them getting
faded again and Seattle getting some money. So no big,
big movements, kind of what you expect in the NFL.
But unless there's key injuries or cluster injuries, you're not
going to see much line movement until later in the
week when somebody these totals get stemed.
Speaker 1: It's that Baltimore line. I'm stunned by it. I'm stunned
by Lamar Jackson has pulled a hamstring. The defense is
completely decimated with injuries. I mean they're playing with here's
what they're playing with, backups to the backups right now.
Speaker 3: Power rating wise, I don't I think there may be
five or six teams that would be favored over Baltimore
on a neutral field. That's the key here that it's
kind of like, like I said, record be damn. They're
dealing with it in college football with Notre Dame, where
Notre Dame power rating wise, they're a top five team,
but they're a two and two football team still, you
know what I mean. And I think that's what you're
looking at with in the NFL too. Look at Kansas City.
Kansas City, they're a five hundred team, they're two and two,
and yet they'd be favored over you know, twenty five
plus other NFL teams. And that's all going to play
itself out as the season progresses, kind of like in
college football, that will play itself out, and those phonies
will Even though there it isn't a big enough season
to really get progression and regression towards the mean, there's
enough time that those phony teams tend to fall off.
And I think we'll see it in college football and
we'll see an NFL that you know, teams like Baltimore
are better on paper right now than the record reflex,
but they may catch up to it. Same thing we
saw with Kansas City, and even with look at Detroit.
After Week one, everybody gave up on Detroit.
Speaker 4: Oh.
Speaker 3: They lost their offense coordinator, lost the defensive coordinator. This
team's done now, all of a sudden, they're number one
power rated pretty much in most NFL. You know Sharp's
power ratings, So it just shows you how things change
NFL week the week. You just can't overreact. That's key.
I think that to have success in NFL, you can't
overreact because of the short season and because of all
the focus. Like look at turn on TV, listen to
sports radio. They're just going to talk about NFL, NFL, NFL.
And you know with all that analysis again that that's
what ends up happening.
Speaker 1: That's why we do the right after you. We do
the overreactions from the weeks. And I remember Week one
was Detroit's done. They can't survive without their coordinators. Stick
a fork in them. So it's a yeah, it's it's funny.
Great way to make money in the markets though, take
advantage of the people overreacting. So, uh, you're looking forward
to MLB playoffs, any plays you look, you're looking at
series wise or anything in there.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was ready to jump on Detroit right out
of the gate. I thought there would be a higher favorite,
even though they're on the road. I thought there was
a lot of recency bias to that series. Cleveland. You know,
they they've owned them Cleveland and swept them in Detroit.
They've had no problem with them, so I was hoping
to get a little lower price than that, and I
saw I didn'tmbedd it at minus one fifty, and now
I'm looking at minus one sixty. So I'm kind of
stuck sitting on my hands right there. And the other
game that I liked was the Cubs. I like the
Cubs at home in a queen flip. I'm hoping that
line flips and you get enough san Diego love that.
Maybe I could get the Cubs in Game one as
a dog. But those are the two that stuck out
at me. I thought Detroit is a little bit undervalued
in the series, and I thought San Diego is going
to come in a little bit overvalued in their series
with the Cubs. But still I plan on breaking down
the baseball a little deeper tonight.
Speaker 1: All right, it's a great Monday. Tellround what you have
up for class.
Speaker 3: In the jump on board the college football NFL train's
gonna continue. We have a lot of season ahead and
today I'll have a pack job for the Monday night football.
Was just waiting to confirm to see what I'm gonna
have a two pack or just a single play, right,
now looks like a single play should be up with
in next thirty minutes. Let's just keep rolling, man manage
your risk correctly, and we'll do some damage. Thanks for
having me in. Best of luck this.
Speaker 1: Week, Yanni the Greek. Everyone is off to a fantastic
start on the spreads, in totals, in college football and NFL.
His plays are up at wager Talk. All right, let's
go ahead and do the overreactions, Dan, I was so
happy we had a We had a great one after
Sunday night football. So we'll go ahead and do the overreactions.
We'll talk about where the books one, talk about where
the public one. The week four we overreacted. I only
got four of them. The Chiefs. It's amazing, Dan, One
week the Chiefs are are lost, They're dead to the world.
Now all of a sudden, they're back to being Super
Bowl contenders. That's an obvious overreaction. I'm already seeing cam
Ward as a bust, even though we're four games in
and he has one of the worst coaching situations I
could remember for a rookie. The Saints won't win a
game this season. I saw that one. What they throw
for one hundred and twenty six yards yesterday, and then
the Packers are overrated. We're literally two weeks away from
a talk of an undefeated season from the Packers, and
now we've moved into the Packers are overrated. Now you
do have to question the mentality of a team that
settles for a tie. Good lord, all right, let's go
to where the books won and where the public one.
Where the books won. Books won big on the Bills
minus the points, Washington and Lanta the under, and the
Chargers minus the points. Those were big wins for the books. Public.
Did I mean this Titans team is the ultimate fade
wagon right now? Public's taking advantage. Texans minus the points
was big. Buffalo and New Orleans under, Chargers and the
Giants under and the Rams minus the points. If you
had Rams minus the points, thank your lucky stars. But
I guess that's like the I guess it's like karma
for what happened to in the Eagles game. But how
the Colts didn't not only did they not win that game,
but they didn't cover is truly insanity. There was a
long touchdown run that got called back from holding penalty,
and then the poor guy drops the ball as he's
entering the end zone, it goes out of the back.
So just an absolutely absolutely crazy finish to that one.
But Ram's minus appoints was big for the public. And
let's go to props. In fantasy football, big winners and
losers got a lot of winners. Kenneth Gainwell took advantage
with Jalen Warren being out. He had a big game.
The Falcons rebounded. They finally looked back on track. Bijon
Big game, Drake London Big game. James Cook continues to
be arguably the best running back in fantasy and props wise.
He's scoring, he's getting all the work, and they're not
taking him off the field in big situations like they
did last year. The Lions. Jamior Gibbs, Amon Ross, Saint
Brown looked good. Stephan Diggs we had a stuff on
dig sighting flies over any props totals that you had
with him. Pooka Nakua arguably the best wide receiver in football,
just taking into account all his quarterback situation. The guy's
over forty catches already. Travis Etn cemented himself as by
far the number one in Jacksonville. Patrick Mahomes looks back
and Ashton Jens had his breakout game, so big props
winners and the losers. Ladd McConkie, I don't know if
he's number three right now, but he's performing like it.
So Ladd mccaukie, unders continue to hit everybody on the
Titans is just brutal. There's nothing, there's nothing they can
do on offense right now. It's just a fantasy points
wasteland props unders galore, and brock Bauers is clearly not
one hundred percent. But until further notice, he's either a
stay away or a fade. And I just don't know
how much information we're going to be gginting on how
hurt he truly is, but does not pass the eye
test at all. So bummer for brock Bauers, especially on
fantasy football teams. All right, let's bring in crack Man.
Let's talk a Monday night football prop bill, Happy Monday hours.
The weekend.
Speaker 4: Good, No, okay, I didn't win flipping Hamburgers over here.
Speaker 5: You know that's one of those weekends where you just
that that one game that you know, it's amazing. I
don't even have a losing weekend, really, and I'm still
mad about certain things in the NFL.
Speaker 4: It's so hard to beat this NFL. Guys.
Speaker 5: I talk about this all the time. You know, the
Rams again, two weeks in a row. I don't want
to know how much in total they cost me. In
two weeks, I had the Colts at the Colts plus
three and a half and it's another terrible loss. Guy
trying to celebrate in the anti lifting up the ball.
I got to tell you something, these guys everything, you
have teams losing my thirty points that are celebrating a
tackle like it's all about individual achievement. It's not about
a team effort no more. There's no you know, Walter
Payton's out there anymore. Just you know, hand the ball
to the ref and listen. Of course you deserve vacolate,
you just got a touchdown.
Speaker 4: Stuff.
Speaker 5: But I just sometimes there's just no common sense. There's
no really, these guys are all about styling and profiling,
and there's just no teamwork. Remember al Capone and the
narrow role in al Capone and the Untouchables with teamworker's
walking around the baseball bat.
Speaker 4: First, guys, teamwork got smashed in the head.
Speaker 1: I mean, can I can I defend? Can I defend
the Colts wide receiver guy. He wasn't like high stepping
into the end zone like like he was just moving
the ball from one hand to the other. He didn't
drop it too soon. It wasn't as egregious as some
of the other plays that. It wasn't as bad.
Speaker 4: Didn't he like put the ball in the air like
I'm number one? Like I wasn't even like just holding
the ball.
Speaker 1: Doesn't everybody kind of do that. It wasn't like DeShawn Jall.
Speaker 5: You know, no, no they don't.
Speaker 4: They scored a touchdown first, then do it? Yeah, no, no, no,
the answer is no, and they don't. I love you
to death.
Speaker 1: Trying to defend my Colts guy. I felt bad for him,
felt terrible for him because idiots, Yeah, you're the one
carrying the baseball bat this morning. I see no.
Speaker 5: And then well I just someone just sends me his
video too, just now. Todd Furman, who I like, I've
Todd with his video for this guy on a DraftKings
show saying you should buy down the college game from
three and a half to two and a half and
lay a dollar fifty eight at DraftKings. First of all,
who buys points in college football. Second of all, it's
the money line is only like a dollar seventy. Yeah,
let's lay two and a half instead of for a
dollar fifty eight. And third of all, the guy said,
oh yeah, I think I recommend betting this. The guy
probably never put a bet in his life, but he
looks good on camera. I just I feel bad for
the people out there that have to watch these talking
heads on these sites talk about things and they have
no skin in the game. They don't know anything about
the analytics of the game.
Speaker 4: They know nothing. All they know is they look good
at a you.
Speaker 5: Know, a forty two long suit or whatever, and they
just look good for the camera.
Speaker 4: This is men and females.
Speaker 5: I just can't take it because these poor kids they
love this stuff, they love this stuff, and they say,
oh my god, yeah that's a good idea, let me
buy it two and a half. First of all, there's
no buying in college football, none on anything, you know,
even in the NFL. I'll tell you right now, the
buying is so expensive. Unless you have some shops that
you could buy on or off of the three for
an extra fifteenth or I'll go twenty cents, then there's
no buying in the NFL because the three and seven
is not worth what it was. I'm going off on
rants here, but I just know, because I've been doing
this andy professionally thirty years.
Speaker 4: I know the.
Speaker 5: Margins and how tight things are and NFL, how efficient
these markets are.
Speaker 4: And these people have nothing.
Speaker 5: To talk about on air, so they just make up
stuff and they say, oh, I'm gonna bet this.
Speaker 4: Meanwhile, they got their own they got their own cemetery
that they buried everybody in. I mean, it's just terrible anyway. Sorry,
I don't mean to come off a little salty this morning.
Speaker 1: No, No, you're good. You're good.
Speaker 5: We got two games, to be honest with you having
a great season, I mean, having an unbelievable college season
when when it making money.
Speaker 4: I got two games tonight. You're right ahead. I'm gonna
stop talking, man, I just can't help it.
Speaker 1: No, you're good, You're good. I gotta I want to.
I want to do your prop. And then I got
a hilarious photo to show you it is. It's right
up your alley. You're gonna laugh your ass off when
you see this photos here. But what what's your what's
your Monday night football? Prop for tonight. What do you like?
Speaker 5: So I just went over to make sure the wine's
still the same about ten minutes ago. I'm sure it is.
I just actually released it. But it's it's not gonna move, okay, JK.
Dobbins under Rushing Yards. It is sixty five and a half.
I'm looking at MGM sixty five and a half. So
I think Denver is gonna get these running backs more
involved this week, so that that under sixty five and
a half and listen, I will tell you to get
to it now because it will move. I'm gonna talk
about it on a couple of shows today, so I'm
sure it's gonna.
Speaker 4: Go down a little bit. Dobbin's under, and I'm gonna
have another.
Speaker 5: One later on also Andy, but for the people that
wag your talk, but that there's a free one that
to be real blunt now that I'm thinking about it,
forgot to bet it. I'm going to but I just
I came in went a head full of steam about
some a couple of subjects. But yeah, Dobbin's under. Okay,
I bet MGM right now, which I'm probably gonna bet
right there. So I'm gonna give you guys. Give you
guys a minute or two, a couple of minutes to
bet that has not moved Dobbin's under sixty five and
a half. So yeah, and I'm gonna bet a lot
of these, a lot of these props. I usually I
release them for the customers first, so I don't front
run customers. I don't give out under sixty five and
a half when I bet under sixty eight and a half.
Speaker 4: That I don't do. And I'm not.
Speaker 5: One of these people that say, oh, you could bet
this line at ESPN better, you can bet it that
a certain sports book.
Speaker 4: And I don't give that.
Speaker 5: I give had an obtainable line. Andrew, what was that comment?
Just went by someone? U?
Speaker 1: Sports betting is changing? Worst lately is the price hike
on NFL teasers? Yeah, DraftKings doing minus one thirty five.
Speaker 5: You can't bet it, don't you notice, guys, I haven't
given that any teasers one on the line. I don't
think it's fair to give out teasers to you guys
now if you're playing with a local, yes, I'm told
the local guys and the software still have six point
teasers at a dollar twenty. But I'm dealing to a
crowd that plays the DraftKings, Fanduels and big you know,
the big sports books of the world that that are
new to the United States here in the last seven
eight years, and they're price gouging on these DraftKings was great.
They were minus a dollar twenty and they were getting
a lot of action. I'm sure they were making a
ton of money on it. But someone said, hey, we
can make more if we charge a dollar thirty five.
Let's charge double the juice. So they charge of seventy
five percent more juice, eighty percent more juice on that
same bet.
Speaker 4: So I'm sure they'll beat all these.
Speaker 5: Kids up that are that don't care what they lay,
don't respect the line, they don't respect the market. Six
point teaser I was. I was betting even money for
a decade, even teasers for a decade, literally, and then
all of a sudden, some one s should be minus
one ten for a six point teaser. Okay, even minus
twenty you can beat, but it cuts into the profits.
Minus one thirty five unbeatable, unbeatable, You cannot win betting
six point teasers minus one thirty five. Going through the
key numbers, going through it's unbeatable unless you're just a
short term.
Speaker 4: Guy you win to and quick for the year or
something like that. It's that hard.
Speaker 1: Can I I want to have this conversation with you,
because we got time today. I was just having this
conversation with one of my one of my betting partners.
We're not having a good year. We are down units
for the year, coming off of two incredible years, but
this year, you know, we're down. And I was saying
to him, the prices have really made it tough to
turn a profit now, like some of these lines. I'm
I'm gonna get to the Ryder Cup. I was out
in New York. I went there. This is where I
got this picture to show you.
Speaker 4: I've seen you on video yelling at one of the dolfers.
Speaker 1: Not me, not me. I was in a suite, but
they had like forty cent lines. It was like minus
like I had to head matchup minus one twenty, minus
one twenty. It was like it didn't used to be
like this, Like even just a few years ago, it
didn't used to be like this. But I look at
some of these lines in UFC, and you're getting fights
that should be pick'ems and that they're minus two hundred,
and then these teasers, now that minus one thirty five,
and now you throw the tax thing in there, like Bill,
when is it enough? Like at what point are we
gonna get to where everyone just says, you know, this
is not only is this not beatable, it's not even
fun like how much how much money can you take
from us? And how much value can you take out
these lines? It's getting to be with these domestic books.
It's not a fair fight.
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, it's funny you say that.
Speaker 5: I'm not gonna throw the book under the bus, because
they're very good to me, and they're very good on
a lot of lines, and they offered a lot of
the different diversity and there's so many different things they offer.
But I noticed they went to minus one fifteen on
prophesis this year on both sides.
Speaker 4: And I still have to terrorize the line manager. Why
did you guy?
Speaker 5: You guys were one ten for years just because people
don't really care what they like?
Speaker 4: That was his answer. I said, you're right, you're right,
you're right, you're right, and I'm still gonna play.
Speaker 5: I'm still betting into it, So you're right. Now we're
referring to as in golf. Golf is used to be
minus one ten on both sides of golf matchups and stuff.
Are you sing I know if matchups are now one
twenty both sides.
Speaker 4: No way.
Speaker 1: They were out in New York when I was in
DraftKings they opened up some matchups at thirty set lines
and while we were watching in real time, they went
to thirty five set lines and then forty set lines. Yes,
that that that really happened. It was on Singles on Sunday.
It was crazy. Yeah, Chad, I love this comment. These
corporations are greedier than the old school mob bookies.
Speaker 4: Listen.
Speaker 5: I'll tell you right now, Chad is spot on spot
on mob guys know how the massage things give you
a little value for the money. These corporations, man, I'll
tell you they just want to listen.
Speaker 4: Listen.
Speaker 5: It might be better off just having to us a
mask and a gun. Just take the money, get get
it over with quicker.
Speaker 4: I mean, that's unbelievable that they I mean, and you
know what.
Speaker 5: It'll never stop and it's only gonna get worse. And
you want to know why, because they still get the
volume they do. It's because we are so close to
the sun here at wager Talk and these type of shows,
and these shows I do. I do a dozen shows
a week on different networks talking about the smart advantage,
sports betting, responsible gambling, different things.
Speaker 4: We're too close to the sun.
Speaker 5: We represent a little little fraction so tiny you can't
even see it on a radar screen.
Speaker 4: Of the sports betting community.
Speaker 5: It's all these kids in college and these kids that
are watching things on TV and they watch ESPN, and
you know, they go through all these different media sources.
Murderers row and then they just have no chance and
they don't.
Speaker 4: Care, they don't respect, they just fire.
Speaker 5: So what we know for us being around and me
being you know, old school knock around guy from thirty
years ago, bet in sports with locals, I know what
it is, and I know what it is to bet
even with the offshore world in the late nineties early
two thousands, I know what it was juice wise and
how they made lots of money.
Speaker 4: Everyone was happy.
Speaker 5: And I've seen these new corporations coming and they use
the excuses they have to overcome these marketing expenses. They
got to pay Lebron and all these guys two million
five million a year and all these ads everywhere, stadiums everywhere,
So they spend all this money on this stuff, and
meanwhile they already have the customer this is Are you
doing it for customer retention? Maybe branding? Maybe I know
one thing. Us betters pay the price. We're the ones
that pay in the end by paying. You're telling me
about this golf juice. I mean, it's so tough to
beat minus one ten lines and now you want to
go to one fifteen, one eighteen, and even one twenty.
It's it's really really frustrating that we have to put
up with this stuff. But let me be blunt, I'm
still gonna beat it because I'm dealing with the sharpest
syndicate guys in the world. You know, I'm dealing with
guys that are that have a better line than the
sports books that you could play in. That's a perfect example.
So now just now, I just want to go put
a bet in the Dobbin's bet.
Speaker 4: I gave it. I told you guys, and I bet after.
I just bet it. Just now, so I go to
put a pen and I try to bet thousands and
thousands of dollars.
Speaker 5: So they gave me seven hundred and forty bucks, but
I'm still I'm happy with the seven forty.
Speaker 4: You know, I'm happy with that.
Speaker 5: But like if perfect example is, if that was such
an efficient market, the prop market, then they would take
what they would take on an NFL game, which is
you know, twenty five fifty, one hundred times or whatever
you can carry in your backpack.
Speaker 4: I'd like to say at the counter.
Speaker 5: Or on the app. So I know I'm still gonna
be the I'm still gonna be even minus one fifteen
both ways on props. I'm still gonna beat it because
I'm dealing with guys that are better better that putting
up the lines than the bookmakers themselves. A matter of fact,
they couldn't pay them enough. These companies that run the
book making shops, what do you think they pay their
risk department. Honestly, it's embarrassing. They should pay them a
lot more. It's embarrassing. The offshore book makers in the
late nineties early two thousands were making double double the
guys in risk. Then the legal companies are today over
in Jersey and where they have these here DraftKings too.
They have their office here to risk office here. They
deserve to get paid more. There's a lot of responsibility
on their shoulders of a public company. So I'm just
telling you we're too close to the sun here. Like
I said, we're a very small fraction of what goes
on out there. But I'm still going to beat it,
and the guys I'm dealing with, we're still going to
overcome the juice and stuff. But it does hurt. You
start shaking your head and say, wow, you know what
has happened. Like you said, you're having a losing year
this year. But what people don't realize out there is, mathematically,
if you're a lifetime winning you got a couple of
good winning years in a row. Mathematically, someone that's losing,
if they're evolving and using the same formulas and models,
they are still that lifetime fifty seven percent capper. If
they're handicapping at fifty one percent, well then guess why
they're going to return to the mean. And now's the
time to jump on them. So if that makes any sense.
Speaker 1: For no, it does I. I I appreciate that. Uh yeah,
the confidence is confidence is still there in the reads.
And so I just we got robbed on a fight
last week. It was we lost on Contender series and
even Dana White gets up there was like, yeah, the
judge's got it wrong. Well they announced like, yeah, judge's
got it wrong, like just stuff like that. But I
want to show you this picture. I want to show
this picture before I let you go. All right, So
bucket bucket list here Bill. I got invited to the
Ryder Cup and we had a suite. Okay, this is
the suite that was next to the one I was
in the Draft Kings VIP clubhouse. How much money are
you down in your Draft Kings account to get invited
to the VIP suite at the Ryder Cup.
Speaker 5: Oh okay, I don't see it.
Speaker 4: Photo supposed to be on there. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a picture of the Draft Kings VIP
clubhouse at the Ryder Cup.
Speaker 4: My screen set up, it's just orange to me.
Speaker 1: That's all right, that's all right. Everyone else can see it.
So how much do you have to be down to
get invited to that?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, no, you're you're in big money, uh to
get they listen, they take care of their VIPs for sure,
the guys, and they're willing to lose you know, half
a million, a million dollars a year. You're gonna get
invited the Super Bowl sweets like that, and yeah, that
was really cool, and that's that stuff's unbelievable.
Speaker 1: I there's a there's a local, there's a guy that
oversees everything in Indiana. Like if you have issues with
your account, you reach out to I texted. I was like,
why was it I invited? Never mind? I know I'm
not inviting. So all right, Bill, what do you have
up for everybody on this Monday?
Speaker 4: Yeah? So over a wager talk? I just pulled it up.
Speaker 5: Yeah, good season here, sixty two thirty two profits so far,
we have a four percent play. Uh these four percent
plays are four and one plus eleven points two.
Speaker 4: Is are rare. We have a rare one up there today.
And uh yeah, join us over.
Speaker 5: A wager talk again, go into the weekly or the
monthly package. That's what you want to do long term,
you'll see the you're there.
Speaker 1: All right, thank you, Bill, great segment today, Bill krack Man,
everybody always a pleasure. So all right, only one play
that is up for us. We just got done talking
about how tough it is to win. We won last
night big. We had two props in the Sunday night game.
Did absolutely fantastic so I had a couple of frustrating
losses earlier in the day, but we capped off the
night with big win. And we only have one play
tonight that is up grab that Monday night football play
best bet. It's a prop. It's only fifteen bucks. We're
up fifty units last three hundred and sixty five days
and props. This is our bread and butter. This is
what we do. Number one at wage of talking props
last year. So and this year has been pretty good football.
We're around that fifty five fifty six percent, so we've
kind of been been treading water. But yeah, one good play,
join us cash with us. Really really loved the prop.
I think it's mispriced. I think there's a few things
that the books are not taking into account with the
game script. So one play, one winner tonight, WT Dot
Buzz slash Al. All right, let's bring in Steve Merrill. Well, Steve,
we're gonna talk some baseball, We're gonna talk some Monday
night football. But first we did our overreactions for the
week here, so I'm curious which ones you like the best.
Just two weeks ago, the Chiefs were written off. They're done.
Now they're all of a sudden back to Super Bowl
contenders a week. That's an overreaction for four weeks in
cam Ward is a bust. I've seen that start to
pop up. I've seen Saints aren't gonna win a game
this season. They were particularly atrocious on offense yes today,
and then the Packers were two weeks removed, Steve, don't
forget two weeks remove from can the Packers go undefeated?
To now the Packers are overrated because they lost to
the Browns and then they tied. Which one is your
favorite overreaction?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's still the Packers. We've talked about
them a lot each week. It's amazing they blew a
ten nothing lead, dominating most of the games clean and
what was one of the worst scheduling spots ever. As
I've talked about numerous times here on the channel. It's
one of the reasons we had a best bet on
the Browns. One of the reasons I told everybody in
my Fade the public video last week, do not use
the Packers and your survivor picks. Do not use them
in teasers. And that was the same advice I gave
to people this week with the LA Chargers the Giants.
I didn't use the Giants. I wasn't bold too much
uncertainty with the new quarterback. But I told people, this
is another terrible scheduling spot for the Chargers and the
reason I actually didn't play against the Chargers.
Speaker 3: I really liked them this year, and I still like
the Packers.
Speaker 4: I liked them last night.
Speaker 2: And they ended up tying still and that was with
a blocked extra point returned. Otherwise they win the game
in regulation most likely, So that's an overreaction. As far
as cam Ward goes, I wasn't expecting a lot from him.
He wasn't the best player in the draft. But because
everyone has to take a quarterback, you're always chasing your tail.
We saw the Browns do it for decades. He's on
a bad team and he could be a good quarterback.
We'll never know until maybe he goes somewhere else if
they don't ruin him in the meantime, and then, the
Saints were expected to be the worst team coming into
the NFL. They will win a couple of games. I'll
win two or three most likely, so that's probably an overreaction.
I'm not gonna go winless, but yeah, it's amazing to me, Andy,
how the Packers and the Commanders. Let's not forget not
my Washington Commanders. That was the NFC Championship preview a
couple of Thursday nights ago. I didn't feel that way.
In fact, I really liked the Falcons yesterday. I gave
that free to everybody in the fade the public video,
and you know I love to fade those public dogs.
I thought Atlanta was a really good spot coming off
the shutout loss. Do the Titans do we bear back that?
Do we dare back? We don't bear back? We dare
back the Titans.
Speaker 4: Off the set?
Speaker 2: Look at that, Andy Lang or the odds of me
saying that on Live TV.
Speaker 1: Well, we debuted a new open for the show. I
asked people to give suggestions, and one of the suggestions
was welcome to Wager Talk. It's time to bang with
Andy Lang.
Speaker 2: Wow, and they can use the little That's one of
my favorite emojis. By the way I went, because I
do reply back to all the comments. Is you know
I love the little. If you type in boom, it
gives you that whenever we cash, I love putting boom
with the money sign or the happy phase of the
Bill Nol. Yeah, the Titans have been getting bare backed
all season, so it wasn't appropriate common in hindsight.
Speaker 1: That's sorry, not clip that, don't clip that.
Speaker 2: This is a family show.
Speaker 1: Let's talk Bengals and Broncos tonight. What do you got
on this game? This is an interesting one. You got,
Jake Browning? What's your read on this game?
Speaker 2: Good for the NFL doing two Monday night games. They're
doing this quite often. It's like every other week. I
don't know what the game plan is, but I looked
at the schedule for October. We have a few more
of these double headers, and they got it right. We
got the OO to six combined Jets and Dolphins leading
us off with the one and two and two and
one Bengals and Broncos. So combined to four teams tonight,
I think are three and nine straight up in my
math is right. So maybe the experiment's not working, but
I like this concept. I don't like the European games,
but I do like the nine thirty am the nighttime game.
Speaker 3: Let's spread it out.
Speaker 4: Why not?
Speaker 2: You know, why have seven games at one o'clock Eastern?
Nowadays it's becoming more spread out. What I will say, though,
is if you say who's two and one, who's one
and two? Everybody would jump and say the Broncos are
the two and one team because they are the better
team and they're more than a touchdown favor for that reason.
So it's green Bay, green Bayer pass, Denver or passed.
Just like last night, he was green Bay or pass
because I wanted nothing to do with the Cowboys, but
that line was inflated and it did make a difference.
Dallas didn't win, but they covered, and I say it's
the same thing here tonight. Once again, I don't want
anything to do with the Bengals. As you mentioned, Browning
is starting. Burrow is out for several months. What was
it toe surgery, I believe, and Browning didn't look too good.
He's the third year quarterback out of University of Washington.
Now the teams have a little time to prepare. I
don't expect much from him, But do we really want
to lay seven and a half in this game? I
could see the Broncos winning by exactly seven. It's a
key number. I did mention this in my video for
this and by the way, I did a standalone two
for one special a deep dive into the Jets, Dolphins,
and the Cincinnati Denver game, so check that out after
the show. Here it's our wager Talk TV from a
few days ago. I did mention I thought the Broncos
make a nice teaser selection tonight. A six point teaser
taking them down to one and a half puts them
in a pretty much straight up one situation. Now, obviously
we have games left from yesterday to tie that up with.
If you watched that video earlier in the weekend, as
you should have, but now we can look ahead to
next week's games. I haven't talked about this anywhere. Some
games that maybe qualifies decent teasers. Jets right now getting
about two points at home against the Cowboys. Cowboys have
not stopped anybody this year defensively, and they're coming off
a tough game last night. As we've talked about, Jets
up to plus eight probably make a decent teaser that's
off the board in many spots. My guess would be
quarterback situation. There a lot of nine and a halves,
so we'll see if those come down lower this week.
And also the Lions right now about an eight and
a half point favorite at Cincinnati, who plays tonight, of course,
and also Buffalo on Sunday night and eight point home
favorite against the Patriots, who had a blowout win. That
was actually my free play of the day yesterday at
wager talk dot com. So Bronco's in a teaser tonight,
and now that we're looking ahead to next week, those
are some teams you can tie it up with. Oh,
by the way, real quick, Andy. Last year, first year
with bo Nicks, the Broncos were a perfect eight, and
those straight up and against the spread is a favorite.
Last year they won but failed to cover ish by
eight in that opener this year against Tennessee and then
technically they lost as a one point favorite against your
Indianapolis Colts. But otherwise they've been winning by margin. I
think eight of those nine games have been by eight points.
Actually everyone's by been eight points or more, and eight
of the nine have been by double digits or eight
of the ten, whatever it is. Now, they've been a
really good favorite. So once gain, Broncos are passed, but
the teaser is probably the best option.
Speaker 1: Let's move to MLB here. We got playoffs coming up,
of course, the Red Sox and the Yankees rivalries. What's
your take on MLB playoffs, and in particular those teams.
I believe Red Sox are about five games behind the
Yankees at this point. So what do you look? What
are you what are you looking at? In the playoffs here.
Speaker 2: It's just always amazing to me, right that they play
one hundred and sixty two games, which is twice as
many as hockey plays or the NBA plays, and then
they had these quick little you know, three to five
whatever game series. They get to seven game series. It's
kind of crazy. And then these are two teams that
had to play hard through the final day of the season.
I mean, Yankees entered the three game series this weekend
dead even with Toronto for the division title. The Red
Sox entered Friday night the three game series this week
in one game up for the wildcard. You have the
Tigers and Guardians tied for the division, maybe on the
outside looking in for the wildcardhading into the weekend after
one hundred and fifty nine games, it's just amazing to
me how tight it becomes. And it's a shame we
can't maybe come up with a little bit of a
better concept. But the Yankees in a red hot nine
in one their last ten, twenty two and eight their
last thirty. And keep in mind, this is a team
that was playing five hundred baseball for a couple of
months before that. Red Sox seventeen and thirteen their last thirty,
six and four their last ten found their way in though,
two teams that are really good against lefties. And I
bring that up because on the surface, they both have
good left handed pitchers. Going tomorrow night on Tuesday, with
Crochet and Freed totals at seven though, you know, and
that's such a key number, and it's just a little
bit to the over at seven or less, I think
we might see more runs and expect it. And yes,
starting pitching is the key to the playoffs. But both
of these offenses are more than capable. And if you
look at some of these pitchers in recent years, you know,
I don't think Crochet's come out of the bullpen until
about a year ago with the White Sox he became
a starter. He's a guy to be careful with. He's
never pitched this late in the season as the start
of this many innings. He's had a nice season, but
I wouldn't be shocked if he wears down at some point,
and I do think the Red Sox overall in this
series hold the pitching edge or the Yankees hold the
offensive edge, so it's probably pretty important that Boston gets
Game one. Oddsmakers are saying that's not as likely, though.
They're about a dollar twenty dog Yankees right now, about
a dollar thirty five favor It should be a great series,
and it is cool to see these two teams playing
the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Steve Merrill, were you on that Colts Rams game any kids?
Speaker 2: I haven't been on either Rams game the last two
weeks luckily, so that's fine with me, all right.
Speaker 1: So Bill and I got no an argument. I didn't
think the guy dropping the ball going into the n
zone in the ball, I didn't think it was that agreed,
Just yeah, it was a mistake, like he was doing
some crazy dance or celebration. Like it wasn't like, you know,
Deshaun Jackson, like dropping the ball and stuff. Bill says, no,
he's a moron. Where do you stand on it?
Speaker 2: It's funny. Sorry the way Mary Head coach was talking
about this at the college level because a guy got
a celebration penalty the other week because he flipped the
ball right away and then like went to the crowd
in the end zone and he's saying, what they teach
the players is to bring the ball to the official.
This is at the college level, so that is a
good way to prevent that from ever happening. I guess,
you know, unless you're literally fumbled, and that's a different story.
But yeah, I mean it's just like, run to the official.
What would happen Andy in the NFL? If you run
up to the official, you spike it right in front
of him. That would be very interesting. I mean, you're
allowed to.
Speaker 4: Spike it in the NFL? Would that be taunting?
Speaker 3: Can you taunt the official?
Speaker 1: I don't know? Oh yeah, I mean I don't know.
Someone needs to explain how like if a guy like
flips the ball and it's not in the right area,
or if he flips it towards a player, that's a penalty.
But if there's an interception, the entire defense can sprint
the entire length of the field, get in a pose
in the end zone, pose for and that's perfectly fine.
And I don't understand why one is a fifteen fifteen
yard penalty is a backbreaker.
Speaker 2: Yeah, as you all, I grew up as a huge
Redskin fan in the early eighties during their Super Bowl
era and as you probably recall, the fun Bunch came
like around Superball seventeen, Super Bowl eighteen, and for those
viewers that are under forty, they probably don't ever know
about it, but google the fun Bunch, you know, Redskin
super Bowls whatever. They would form a circle, they do
the swing that the high five, which was a great
It wasn't Shawny the other team, and it was cool,
you know, they dropped the bomb and it was awesome.
They had the Smurfs. So I've grown up with that,
just loving a good celebration. And the college football stuff's
the worst. Like they're allowed to shoulder bump, but if
they hug, I think it's a penalty. So that's why
they all do this shoulder bump. It's like, hey, look,
we have a play clock right for a reason, so
if it's melking, it delay of game. If you're getting
in a guy's face and doing that, maybe, but even that,
like I don't care. It's like the Matumbo thing got
out lawed, right, It's like, who cares he's waving his finger.
It's like, what's the problem.
Speaker 1: Of all the things in the game, Like really, that's
like like who, by the way, who's against celebrations? What
fan at home is like?
Speaker 2: And it's what's funny is you know football in the
lesser leagues they embrace betty, They embrace celebration, you know,
because they need to. So these these high and toddy,
big time leagues like the NCAA and the NFL are
too good for fun. The NFL but not for fun.
Speaker 1: League right for decades? They should they should do it.
The award somebody for the best dance of the week,
the best selling What.
Speaker 2: Are they always showing the highlight reels? They score and
they do a creative like the dice roll with the
football is one of my favorites. They show it all
the time, so it kind of tells you that people
want to see it, right if it's on the.
Speaker 1: High Absolutely, Chad Johnson, everybody's seen just Chad Johnson celebrations.
Oh well, all right, Steve, what do you have about
for everybody on Monday?
Speaker 2: So Monday's kind of quiet time, right because baseball playoffs
starts to We got the two Monday night football games,
but I've got two advanced NFL best bets. First time
I've done this all year for next week. I love
these two games. I think the lines will move, so
get them early. And it's also the last chance, I
believe tonight on Monday to get the one year all
access instant eight hundred eleven dollars discount that works out
three dollars a day, about a dollar a play for
every football, baseball, basketball, college and pro best bet I
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It expires tonight. There's no promo code.
Speaker 4: Need it.
Speaker 2: Check it out. Steve Merrill, wager Talk dot com and
get there quicker WT dot Buzz, slash sm.
Speaker 1: Steve Merrill, great work can't wait to talk to you
next week. Steve Merril, everyone over wage All right, let's
do all around the world. We'll get a couple free
props here for everyone. So Jets and the Dolphins. I
like Braylan Allen over nineteen and a half rushing. This
opened at seventeen and a half. It's already moved up
to I haven't made this an official client play, and
I think it's just because I got a small sample size.
But this Jets and Dolphins teams, they're bad against the run,
and I just feel like the Jets and the Dolphins
are gonna run a lot. I like Braylan Allen over
nineteen and a half. He wasn't used a whole lot
in the first two weeks, but he got over this
total last week, and I think it's just gonna be
a lot of running from Breeze Hall, Braylon Allen and
Justin Fields included. So Braylan Allen over nineteen and a half.
You could also look at Ali Gordon from the Miami
I think he gets he had nine carries last week.
He flew over his total. So I would look at
running plays and Jets and Dolphins, and then Bengals and Broncos.
Who's another rushing prop? Bo Nicks over five and a
half rush attempts. He has nineteen rush attempts this year
two games he's had eight. Don't forget Neil downs are
included as rush attempts, so if they're up and he's
last on the field, you could get a sneaky couple
of attempts. But yeah, I like this, but I like
bo Nicks to get over the rush attempts. Last time
he played Cincinnati had seven for thirty one yards. So
all right, guys, that's gonna do it for us great
Monday show. My best bet for tonight is a prop.
Of course, it's prop. It's all I play in the NFL.
I think it's the most beatable lines. So our best
bet is up tonight. Coming off a really nice two
and o night and Sunday Night Football cash two props
on Jordan Love. This is another quarterback prop tonight, so
join me for another winner on Monday Night Football. We're
two and one on Monday Night Football, so hoping to
move this to three and one. Should be a great
night of football, and I can't wait to see you
guys tomorrow. It's five dollars Tuesday. Hit the like button
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