Speaker 1: All right, welcome in everyone in this Monday.
Speaker 2: Hope everyone had a fantastic weekend, got to watch some baseball,
maybe watch some NFL or college football as well, or
some WNBA.
Speaker 1: I know Marco went to the game yesterday. Still going.
Speaker 2: Hope everyone had a great weekend, and we are here
to talk NLDS.
Speaker 1: The two games today are both from the National.
Speaker 2: League, but Brian Leonard, I wanted to go to you,
and then we'll go to Tokyo, Brandon, and then I'll
wrap it up as people file in here. Takeaways from
the American League games. The Blue Jays swept Tigers. Mariners
are one one. We're going to talk about those games
tomorrow because they of course don't play today, but any takeaways, betting, observations,
anything that you kind of want to throw out there
as you watch the games this weekend.
Speaker 3: Well, it's tough to.
Speaker 4: Lay big favorites because, as we said going into the playoffs,
all these teams have been able to win on the road.
Speaker 3: They've been good team games. But I got to say
the Yankees id been a no show.
Speaker 4: I mean, I know Toronto and Philadelphia have the two
best home records in baseball, but Toronto having that series
off and the Yankees being in a little bit of
a run there, I thought the Yankees were going to
come out and play them a little bit better. I
actually gave my clients a small play all the Yankees to.
Speaker 3: Win the series. I did that in the first series
and they won it.
Speaker 4: I'm just about to give that money back because I
don't see how the Yankees are going to come out
and win three in a row here. The same problems
they've had all season long, both pen problems and defense
and base running have been their downfall. So yeah, I've
never been a Yankees fan anyway, coming from Cleveland, and
anytime we had good players, they always seem to go
up to the Yankees after after they left us. But
I'm excited for Toronto. I'm excited for our friends in Toronto.
I know President uh and Carmine live up there and
they're huge Blue Jays fans. So hey, maybe we'll see
Toronto making it to the next level. And as for
the Detroit Tigers, nice comeback last night. I know it
was in them the entire game and they finally got
to the bullpen. But give it back up at the
bottom of the eight. It's been a good series. I
think it'll continue to be a good series, So we'll
see how it goes.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I amber herded the bed yesterday. I thought the
Yankees were gonna stand for something and be men, but
they weren't. I also thought that game would go under,
and it definitely did not go under. But man, that
rookie for Toronto, Holy cow, his split his what is
that a split change that he's throwing. That's incredible. He
could call that pitch and they wouldn't be able to
hit it. That stuff was incredible. If he can do
that consistently, he's going to be He's going to be
better than Gaussman was when in his prime. Uh. If
he can keep it up, man, he looked electric. What
were you gonna say, Brian.
Speaker 4: I'm just gonna say that Trigg had pointed him out
months ago. Yeah, along with it, along with the Mets starters,
I mean, it's great having somebody obviously you uh, handicapped
Japanese League and in the Green League, but you know,
having guys, having somebody who handicaps the minor leagues like
Trigg does is a big advantage for those that have
been following on this show.
Speaker 2: And Guy Camp how about our guy, Cam Schlitzler. We
were talking about him and and TB props to you.
That was a great call. Brian and I both kind
of lean the other way and he came out and.
Speaker 1: Good of that was.
Speaker 2: That was as impressive of a start that I think
we'll see this entire playoffs from anyone just given the situation,
given the fact that he you know, I mean, I
think that will go down, and there's still a lot
of playoffs left. I'm confident that goes down as when
regardless of what happens to the Yankees, of course, it's
a different series. That that was really impressive stuff right there.
You talk about Trey Savage start of the year in
low A, and that's just like it's becoming more important
to really, like, I think kind of handicap the miners
now as opposed to maybe ten years ago, because so
many of these guys not only are they getting up
and getting a chance, but like teams are just like,
all right, you're here, game three starter, right, like even
the Red soxefs, I mean, game three of your season
was on the line, Yankees, Red Sox Game three, your
two starters, Cam Schuitzler, Connolly Early both were in Double
A at the beginning of the season, and that's just
the norm. Now, that's just that for most teams, that's
the norm. You got a guy that can is showing
that kind of upside and it's like, we can't afford
to leave leave him off the playoff roster. Brian, remember
when the Cardinals did it with Adam Wayne right and
everyone was like, what are they doing? Right when they
kind of called him up? What was what year was that, oh,
six oh two?
Speaker 4: Maybe he was one of the an options in the
game yesterday. I didn't even know he was going into
that field, but he was. He was out there talking
about the game yesterday, and uh, yeah, he was a
great pitcher. Unfortunately had some injuries at the end. But yeah,
you get these guys that came up and uh, you
might as well let them go. I mean it's in uh,
in the NBA and some other places, your rookies play
all the time. Why can't your rookies and your younger
guys play. Yeah, so that's different thing that used to be.
Speaker 5: It's something I thought about regarding Major league from a
long time ago. It's like, you know, in football, when
you draft a guy, you throw him into the Lions,
then you let him play. You know, Aaron Rodgers had that.
You know, many of the great ones went in right away. Dan,
you know, I always wondered why they don't give their
rookies a little bit more of a shot in MLB.
I understand that you need to groom them a little bit,
but I think Schlitzler's case and you Savage's case kind
of show that some of these guys are ready right
off the bat. They don't need to be to be groomed.
You know, Schlitler, he pitched almost eighty innings this season,
and he was really solid, especially at home. But let
me make a point about the Yankees that fielding is terrible.
They really. I mean, you can just count on an era.
You can count on at least one or two errors
every single game, and it's coming to haunt them because
they're not hitting. They're hitting, they're hitting only when it
doesn't count. You know, you have a statistic for average
with runners in scoring position, average risk, Right, they should
have a statistic for average when it doesn't mean anything,
because Aaron jo would be king of that. He gets
singles when they're down thirteen to nothing every single game.
You can count on it. But when the bases are
loaded with no outs like yesterday, he struck out. That's
judge in the pro season. That's that's really what he
has been. I mean, he's a he's an awesome player,
he's a generational talent, but man, he just chokes. He's
the Woosye with the p in that respect, because when
you got guys on third base with less than two outs,
he just cannot perform. And you noticed the Blue Jays
every time, well not every time. I noticed one time
they had bases loaded with one out and they didn't connect,
but every other chance they had, they connected. So that's
really tulling. I mean, yeah, that was really my observation
from that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll comment one, well two comments. So SF Niner. Yeah,
we're we are retiring the parlay. We went out with
a win on Friday, put us at plus five point
three five units on the season, not going to give
you a three team or when we only have two games.
We did decide if if it gets later in the
week and we get one of those days where we've
got like four games because all the series go along,
maybe we'll well we'll get one back, but we're still
here to break down the games. You're still gonna get,
you know, the picks for both games from all of us.
My one betting betting takeaway before we move into to
Dodgers Phillies and get the first game of the day going,
My my betting takeaway is I still think that the
Tigers are the value in that series, even even with
the fact that they lost with schooble last night and
it kind of goes off something Brian said, like I
played the Tigers on Saturday Cash with them, I felt
like the series was very much set up for them.
Of course, they have three schoobl on the mound last night,
they don't end up getting it done. But that's my
biggest takeaway of the weekend is that is a very
tough matchup for the Mariners. That just the fact that
like the Mariners have no left handed pitchers pretty much
other other than the two guys on the bullpen that
really helps carry Carpenter Riley Green, and those are the guys.
Speaker 1: Like it's it's the regular season.
Speaker 2: You can look and say, oh the Tigers have you know,
they've been decent against left handed pitching, But that's accumulating
stats over the course of the season. When you're playing
games like you're playing teams like the Twins and the
Royals in the in the playoffs, and this goes back
to Tokyo Brandon's point.
Speaker 1: In the playoffs, you need your big players.
Speaker 2: To step up like That's typically what wins playoff series
is your superstars showing up and getting the big hits.
And Riley Green and Carry Carpenter can do that against
right handed pitching. If all of a sudden they're seeing
a ton of lefties, probably not gonna happen. Of course,
who gets the big hit in Game one? Carry bonds
That ball hasn't landed yet like that. That's my biggest
takeaway right there. So I'll be looking for ways to
play the Tigers. But we're going to talk about that
tomorrow because the American League is off tonight.
Speaker 1: So uh, now that we've.
Speaker 2: Got the juices flowing, we've got some people in here
ready to break down these games. Let's go to tonight.
National League. First, it's Game two. Brian Leonard the Dodgers.
Is it safe to say they stole Game one? How
about PA has given him the sign that's illegal that
is listen if Matt Strom's gonna hold hits glove. I
happen to have a baseball on my desk signed by
all of our summer league kids. These are the college
kids that stay with us over the summer. Listen, if
he's just gonna hold the ball out here and show
the guy at second base the grip. That's not sign stealing.
That's just part of the game.
Speaker 1: And that's what it looked like happened, Phillies.
Speaker 5: Yankees are masters at that. The Yankees are and it's.
Speaker 1: Gets yeah, it's legal.
Speaker 2: Ta Oscar gets the big hit and suddenly the Phillies
are up against it. Similar similar to what the you know,
not really similar to the Jays because they were at home.
Of course, Philly's losing at home in game won's a
big deal. I thought the Dodgers were the better team
coming into this series. Now they get the road win.
Would you go back to them tonight? How are you
seeing Dodgers Phillies.
Speaker 4: We'll start off with the park factors. The wind's blowing
out to center field in Philadelphia about seven or eight
miles an hour, but it should end up with a
nice home run percentage. They've got it listed its park
factors over at ballpark, pal excuse me, as it at
twenty more than a normal game, runs at seven percent
more than the normal and the other game is going
to the domes closed tonight, so it's slightly advance, a
slight advantaged home runs, but lesser for the runs minus
eight percent on the runs. Yeah, we got bikes now
to In fact, we're going with all lefties today, So
keep keep track of the lineups a lot of times
these teams, at least at least Chicago, the Dodgers in Philadelphia,
they don't play the lefty righty as much as Milwaukee does,
but it's still He's going to cost probably Max Muntzy
his spot in the lineup today and that will have
an effect on him at least less power. But he
hasn't been hitting it all lately anyway, it's time time
for Brandon to talk about him again.
Speaker 3: But we've got Snell in Olzari, two lefties.
Speaker 4: We're looking at Snell about a one one twenty eight
favorite total of seven and a half, slightly to the under.
And when you look at Blake Snell, just a terrific
pitcher when he is healthy. He's now pitched in ten
seasons with a three point one five ERA. He's just
been terrific. The only downside is his walk rate eighteenth percentile.
But as we know, if he wants to pitch around
a batter, he can do it, and he has done it,
and so with that, do you have to take that
with the grandest all everything else is in the red
is everything's better than fifty percent past ball velost. The
sixty third is the worst. But he's only a four
four pitch pitcher. Throws this four singer forty four percent
of the time. It ninety five point one mile an hour,
which is two miles an hour faster than a normal lefty.
And he's going up against Jesus Lezardo, who's had a
really nice season. Comes in at fifteen to seven on
the season three point nine two ERA, three point three
to expected, one point two to two. Whip doesn't have
any extension. He's only in the seven percent tile. But
everything else is in the positive. And he's not fantastic
in anything, but he's very good in everything. Throws five pitches,
including his four singer, thirty four percent of the time
at ninety six point five miles an hour, which is
really fast for a lefty. Three point four miles an
hour faster than a normal lefty. So we've got two
pitchers here that have I've had a lot of success,
but I think both of these lineups are probably two
of the best to go over, along with the Yankees
in Major League Baseball, and because of the wind blown
out slightly, home runs could be a little bit more of.
Speaker 3: A factor in this one.
Speaker 4: We're getting a total of seven and a half in Philadelphia,
which we don't see very often, but I could see
it with these two starters. Philadelphia, as I mentioned earlier,
Philadelphia and Toronto have the best home record in baseball,
with the Dodgers up onet to nothing. I'm slightly interested
here with Philadelphia, and I'm going to try to find
a way to best play that. Maybe a team total
over or just take them at plus money as a
home underdog, which seems to be a pretty good idea,
But so far, that's way I'm looking at this one.
Speaker 5: Well, I think I'm going to go against one of
my golden rules, which is don't bet against Jesus. I
think I'm going to go against him because I think
playoff baseball, you've got your stud hitters right the Phillies,
they have Turner, Schwarber, Harper. Those are their stud hitters.
The Dodgers obviously have their big three Otani, Betts, and Freeman.
So what you playoff baseball is all about. If you're
seven eight nine, your six seven eight nine guys can
can come through for you. And that's why the Blue
Jays are crushing the Yankees, because there's six seven eight
nine guys are crushing the ball. So take a look
at the Dodgers six seven eight nine. I mean they
got a Taskar Hernandez. They've got Max Munci, Pahez. Will
Smith's actually back from injury. He went oh for two
in the last game, but I think we're gonna see
more of him. So would you take those guys or
would you take Bader, Stott, Marsh and Kepler. So I
think Dodgers advantage here. And if you take a look
what has been the achilles heel all season, it's been
their bullpen has been atrocious. But now they got Sasaki
closing games and coming in relief. They got guys coming
back from injury. Their bullpen's not quite as in tatters
as it was during the regular season. And I've never
been a big fan of Philadelphia's bullpen. I know they've
won more games than the Dodgers, but honestly, the Dodgers
they do this every year. They just kind of they
just kind of pooh pooh the regular season and then
when the playoffs come, they just turn up the heat.
I don't know, it looks like a Dodgers win to
me because I got the pitchers pretty even. Both of
these pitchers perform really well against the battles are facing,
so I think that's kind of a push there. Both
lineups top three lineups in MLB, so I think that's
a push there. I think the bullpen could be the
difference here and the six, seven, eight, nine hitters could
be the difference here, and in both of those, I
kind of see a Dodger advantage here. Haven't bet it yet,
but if I were to, I think that's the way
I would go, and I might actually do it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm kind of with you. TV.
Speaker 2: I talked about Game one on a video that I
posted to the wager Talk YouTube channel over the weekend,
kind of said that the Dodgers.
Speaker 1: Were the were the way I was looking in this series.
Speaker 2: So from from a handicapping perspective, and I'll give you
guys a chance to follow up to this just because
I'm interested as what you have to say. I typically
go into these series with a game plan of like,
I think, I'm gonna want to find a way to
play this team at some point, so it's like that's
how I rather than try to like zigzag the series
and be like, you know which which happens?
Speaker 1: I mean, I you know it happens.
Speaker 2: Like I think I played the Yankees at one point
in their last series and then came back.
Speaker 1: With the Red Sox, that it's possible for me that
will happen.
Speaker 2: But I think the further I get into the playoffs,
for me, it's like, okay, here's the series.
Speaker 1: I know.
Speaker 2: I kind of like the Dodgers. Where can I find
a place to play it. I thought that that spot
might be over the weekend. I ended up with two
other plays in the in the on Saturday, so I
sort of left the Dodgers off. In my head, I
was like, well, I think game two might set up
a little bit better for them. But then, of course
you have to take the outcome of the first game
into account. Had the Dodgers lost that game, I think
I might be more or let's say they lose a
close game, Phillies burn a couple of leverage arms. I
think I might be more inclined to play them here.
But now that they they've won, I've got to look
at it and say, all right, you know the Phillies,
they're going to manage this game like it's the season,
because it is. If the Phillies lose this game, I
don't think they go to LA and win two.
Speaker 1: You go to the bullpens. I kind of like, I
kind of agree TV.
Speaker 2: I don't think the Dodgers have like the bullpen issues
that they maybe had during the regular season, or that
that we maybe thought they had. One thing I think
is interesting about the bullpens, and I think I was
listening to ever May talk about this. Trevor May was
a just sort of a journeyman reliever. He was on
a couple of different teams, solid for the Twigs.
Speaker 3: He's also.
Speaker 4: If you follow I love less to him, yeahs to him.
Speaker 2: I was listening to him on YouTube and he was saying,
and someone asked him about bullpens, and he said, without
a doubt, hands down, the best experience coming out of
the pen in his career was was the Dodgers, and
he said, the reason for that is they were so
specific about about what you were going to do, whereas
a lot of other teams sort of change the plan.
And and this is going back to the regular season, right,
I'm not talking about what's gonna I think everyone changes
the plan a little bit in the playoffs. Okay, that's
that's normal people. You know, guy like the playoff. Managing
a playoff game is going to be totally different. But
I think if you want to speak to like maybe
the bullpen during the regular season, and of course it's
been the same probably since he was there. It's been
Dave Roberts for a long time, and in the same
sort of front office management has been in place. The
Dodgers know how good they are there. If they tell you, hey,
today's your we want you, Today's gonna be your day,
You're probably gonna face this batter.
Speaker 1: This better, and this batter.
Speaker 2: They're really not worried if it's gonna cost them a
game in April and May. Why because that that is
just the caliber of team they've had for a very
long time, and they I just don't think that they're
trying to like worry about winning a game in June.
Speaker 1: In in in.
Speaker 2: Like worry about winning a game that's gonna like put
their pitchers off of schedule. So what he was saying
as someone that pitched there and came out of their boat,
and he was like, that was the best experience I
had because I always knew that, hey, we're going to
look to get you in between this stenning and this inning,
and you're gonna face these three or four hitters. And
it was always the same. So I think you get
to the post season now it's a little bit different. Now,
now they're going to be more inclined to, like, you know,
go it's all hands on deck, right, It's we might
have to go. Let's say Blake Snell doesn't have it.
Let's say he's walking a few matters, Maybe we have
to go get them early. But I think everyone there understands, like, hey,
now it's the playoffs. And I think that, like, if
you're judging the Dodgers on their full season sort of
bullpen metrics, I think that might be you know that
that might not tell the whole story. And I look
at the Phillies. I'm with you, TV. I wasn't like
sold on this bullpen either. So I don't know that
the Phillies have a big edge there. Then I look
at the series as a whole, I think the Dodgers
are a better team. So the only way I think
I could play this would be to lay the minus
one to twenty five of the Dodgers. The only reason
I haven't done it yet is because I'm sitting here
asking myself did I miss the better spot to do it?
Speaker 1: In Game one?
Speaker 2: So I lean toward the Dodgers, but because they have
that win, because the Phillies have been so so good
at home now going on you know what, two three seasons. Now,
I think if you go back to the beginning of
the year they ended up getting knocked out by the Diamondbacks,
they probably have the best home record in baseball that
I don't think it's close. I mean, I think they've
literally had the best home record in baseball since the
beginning of that season. Do I want to play against
him in that spot here? It's kind of the same
sort of dialogue I had internally with myself about the
Mariners last night. They get I got the win with
the Tigers in Game one. Yes, it's scooble.
Speaker 1: Yes.
Speaker 2: This kind of sets up nicely for the Tigers. Do
I want to fade the Mariners in this sort of
do or dive spot at home? Thankfully I didn't Mariners
get the win kind of the way I feel about
about this series, so I still lean Dodgers though. And
that's just a little insight into how I'm looking at
these any any follow ups to that in terms of
like the plan you guys go into, like betting a
series once we get to the postseason, I'll go to
Brian first.
Speaker 4: I just look for value where I think I can
find value, will play it. And yeah, there's there's certain
pictures I like to go against or certain teams like
to go against. But if I don't get the number
that I want, I'm pretty strict on that I won't
play it, or I'll find a different way to play it.
You know, both both Brandon and I like team totals.
We've done team totals and and that's worked out Brandon
with with his props about picture innings and things like that.
It's just just different ways to go about about it.
And we're trying to get the best value as we
possibly can, at least I do, uh so uh and
and you know, like sometimes your your thought process changes
as the series goes on. We talked about the Yankees.
They've given us no reason to want to back them
at this point. We'll have to see what the line
is tomorrow. But if it's it's it's it's value on
the Yankees, and I think there there's some value, I'll
play it.
Speaker 3: But it's gonna be one of those holder nose type
of games.
Speaker 5: Yeah, when the play off start, those props kind of
go out the window because there's so much uncertainty about
pitchers getting pulled early. Like I had no idea Schlittler
would go seven innings, had no idea that a Savage
would get pulled with a no hitter in the sixth inning.
It's very hard to predict these things, let alone that
he would strike eleven guys out. So the props I
kind of throw the props away when the playoffs start
because it's just so random. But yeah, regarding playoffs, I
don't think about series. I really don't. I have. I
don't think I've ever bet a series bet in my life.
I go game by game, and I'm one of those
guys who tends to think that the last game really
doesn't have much impact on this game as far as
the result. It does as far as personnel and managerial decisions.
But I don't think because a team lost Game one,
they're gonna try harder in game two. I've never really
thought that way because they're trying hard in game one. Well,
talent is talent, whether you try hard. If if you're
the if you're the Colorado Rockies, you can try as
hard as you want, but you still suck. So I
don't really buy the try harder thing, but in certain
situations I do. But without rambling on any longer. Yeah,
I treat playoffs game by game pretty much.
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, And I mean i'd like to think that
we're all every team is giving their absolute one hundred
and ten percent all in the playoffs, I think, And
I'm with you, TV. I don't bet series either. I
have no interest in a series.
Speaker 1: Bet.
Speaker 2: I'm when I'm saying, and I think it's just good
for the viewers and the listeners to get a couple
of different perspectives on because it really is it's a
it's it's an entirely different handicap than what we do
during the regular season. Like the regular season is such
a monotonous, long grind where it's like and for me
specifically going back to something Brian said, you know, I'm
I'm mostly handicapping minor league baseball, minor league players, and
then during the during the season, I'm like, where can
I sort of find an edge on the books that
maybe something is a little bit unknown here too. To
the books, there's no unknown at this point, or at
least there's very little unknown. And that goes just to
tie it back in to Dodgers Phillies. It's like, you know,
most of mostly know what you're gonna get from Snell Lozardo.
The books mostly know what they're what they can expect
to get from these two us. So I so so
for me, I'm just saying that, like I typically have
a plan going into the series. Okay, I want to
find a spot to play the Dodgers because I think
because my numbers are are showing me that there's a
little bit of value on them relative to the Phillies. Hey,
it might not happen. That's the other thing. I might
not bet this a game in this whole series. And
that's another thing. It's just you know, we're getting to
the playoffs. Two games a day. You might go three
days without an actual bet. Because of that, I'll go
back to so just to transition to Cubs Brewers like
for me, this is a series that I have. I
don't really have that plan for this series. I think
this is as even as it gets. You've got two
division rivals. I think they know each other very well.
I think during the regular season they matched up kind
of kind of like that, and so for me, I
may find some value at some point in the series
to play aside, but I don't have that plan here.
I really don't favor one of these teams over the others.
So I'm hoping you two can maybe convince me into
a play here. Brewers Cubs. Let's start with you, Brian.
Do you see any edge for one of these two teams?
And do you have something for tonight.
Speaker 4: I think the Cubs are in a little bit of
trouble here. First of all, Kate Orton, Justin Steele, they've
lost many innings for Justine Steel out for the season.
Kate Horton, we don't know when he's coming back. And
Matthew Boyd, I've talked about this, you know, for the
last month or so about his innings and they brought
him in and he didn't have it the other day
and they pulled him, which leaves them with Imanaga, who
has really struggled down down the stretch, and Jameson tie On,
who for the most part has been basically an average pitcher.
When it took a look at the Cubs lineup, they
throw the same lineup out there just about every day.
You take a look at what they've done in the
last you know, a couple of weeks here last week
they had Balistaios played one game, Castro played one game.
Other than that, everybody else has been in the lineup
for the entire time. Michael Bush, Kyle Tucker, and Pete
Crow Armstrong going against a pretty tough lefty in this one.
And when you take a look at the Brewers, Brewers
are a team that I like because they've got keep
the manager, keeps everybody on on guard. They're always ready
to play, and they may see some other guys going today.
Jake Bowers is normally in a line he probably won't
play here against the Leffie and he hasn't played the
last two times, so maybe we can get you know, Isaac.
Speaker 3: Collins in there.
Speaker 4: Who's had a really nice seasons, not as great down
the stretch as he was earlier, but I'd rather have
him the Jake Bauer. So I'm given a little bit
of an edge for the hitters here in Milwaukee. The
line on this game is about it looks like Milwaukee
just got hit a little bit.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 4: It was probably about a one twenty four. I just
saw one thirty one of DraftKings. I don't know how
long that'll last, but about it one twenty four here
from Milwaukee with Ashby against Amanaga and the total of eight.
And I'm not a big fan of in Monaga right now.
You take a look at what he's done on the season.
Last year two point nine to one ERA fifteen to
three record, this year three point seven three ERA nine
and eight record. Obviously it wins the losses, you can't
depend on that. But if you take a look at
his sad cast profile, well, he's very good in chase
rate eighty fourth percentile and his walk rate ninety six percentile,
but everything else is league average or below, and his
ground ball rate fourth percentile, barrel rate sixth. Basketball ve
lost the eighth average Exson Velost the eleven he throws
five pitches, but his fourth seemer is forty nine percent
of the time, and he only throws it at ninety
point eight miles an hour, which is two point three
miles an hour worse than a normal lefty. So when
I'm taking a look at him and he's got to
face these Milwaukee batters, I think it's a pretty sizable
advantage here for Milwaukee. Also, Aaron Ashby is a guy
that you know, he's one of those that very much
like some of the other pitchers we've talked about. He's
twenty seven now, but he's had a lot of injuries.
But this is a guy in his career three point
six two ERA, three point eight expected ERA this year,
two point one six ERA on the season, so.
Speaker 3: He's been really good all year long. He doesn't have.
Speaker 4: Much extension in the first percentle case rate in the
nineteenth percent ofle is kind of strange considering he's a
sinker ball pitcher, throws those fifty one percent of the time,
and he throws him fast at ninety seven point five
miles an hour, where the normal left he's at ninety
three point two, So you would expect a little bit
more of a chase rate. He hasn't gotten to that,
but that's really the only concern I have about him.
Pass Ball velocity ninety first percentile, barrel rate ninety ninth percentile,
ground ball rate ninety ninth percentile. So it'll be pretty
tough for the visiting team here, the Cubs to get
a lot of power in this game against Ashby. We
don't know how long he's going to be in there.
But I really like how this Milwaukee bullpen sets up here.
They haven't they had three guys pitch, you know, basically
twenty pitches on Saturday.
Speaker 3: They hadn't pitched in a wall.
Speaker 4: So they're very arrested here obviously because of those days
off for the bye. But you got Trevor mcgillback, Uribay
been closing for him.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 4: Coening's a guy I like, Miserowski is going to come
out of the bullpen. That'll be a big help for them.
And they got Nick Mirrors back, so they've got a
lot of their guys back in the bullpen that are
really going to help them here.
Speaker 3: And I think the line's a little bit cheap on
Milwaukee here.
Speaker 4: ESPN dot just went to one thirty five, but you
still get you know, it's it seems like I we
should have went to first on this, We could have
gotten this earlier. But I still think I still think
that there's some betting advantages here. If you live in Veggage,
you get a one twenty here on on Milwaukee, and
I see you know some other places, So I like Milwaukee.
Out of the two games, this is this is the
one game where I'll probably gift to clients.
Speaker 5: Guys. Wayga Talk is letting us price our and they'll
be baseball plays for the rest of the year at
nine dollars. Anything but a five percent play. So go
to wayertalk dot com to see what we've got up.
That's just a bargain. You know, four percent plays they
make us charge twenty five dollars. You can get them
for nine dollars now, so very good price. Tomorrow is
five dollars Tuesday, So make sure you come back tomorrow
and see what plays we have up for five dollars
Tuesday tomorrow. One other thing that you don't see in
the playoffs that you do see in the regular season
is the monotony. So managers make quirky decisions sometimes in
the playoffs that they never would make in the regular season,
so that makes playoff handicapping a little tricky coming into
this series. I don't know why Milwaukee is making this
a bullpen game. Do you think Ashby's going to go
more than two innings here? I don't, But what do
you think, Brian?
Speaker 3: You other stretched him out a little bit lately?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 2: Really, Okay, I think he's got a I don't think
he's got the longest of leashes, but I think if
he's throwing the ball, well, he'll go.
Speaker 1: More than that. Yeah.
Speaker 5: So regarding this game, I finally I agree with Brian.
We've disagreed a lot since the playoffs started. Friendly disagreements,
but you know, when we disagree, it's an advantage for
you guys listening because you can find out why we
disagree and what our logic is, and you can base
your captain on that. I like the Brewers here too.
You know, it's a telling sign who teams are starting
as their ace in the playoffs. I think the Cubs
have probably the worst rotation of any teams left. When
Boyd is your ace for Game one, I think you're
in trouble. Look at other teams. They got Freed, Although
Freed got bombed yesterday. You got Scooball, you got you know,
Christopher Sanchez, You've got Blake snow elite pictures, and then
you got BOYD, who's good above average picture, not an ace.
So I think the Cubs are in trouble as well
with this roation. Ema Naga has not looked very good lately.
He's getting up there in age. I remember, like in
twenty sixteen he won the Japanese version of the World Series,
the Japan Series. That was like twelve years ago or
eight years ago. So he's getting up there in age.
I think it's wearing on him, and I think he's
just finally getting old. You know when pictures get old,
especially Japanese pitchers. They are agile enough to and they're
cerebral enough to, you know, stay alive. But that's not
going to cut it in the playoffs. And Milwaukee's just
bombing the ball right now. They're probably the second best
lineup of all teams in the playoffs right now in
current form, behind the Blue Jays. I think the Cubs
are in trouble as well. Bullpen wise, I actually have
the cubs bullpen ranked a little higher than Milwaukee's, but
I think Imanaga has the potential to get tagged here
a lot more than Milwaukee's pictures do, so I think
Milwaukee would be the way to go as well.
Speaker 2: A couple things, So, someone was talking about the pricing
of the plays in the chat the everything that all
non five percent plays should be nine dollars. So like
someone was saying, they see a couple plays full price,
you'll still see the five percenters at full price. We
can't change the price on those, but four and lower
we'll all be up for nine dollars. And if you
see it and it's incorrect, just email customer support. It
means the individual that put it up probably forgot to
change the price. Another thing, as far as like, so
I'll make before I get into my breakdown of this,
I just like blanket statement. And this is kind of
something that I you know, I think I may be
mentioned on Saturday, and I'll mention it again. I don't
think the I don't think the Phillies can win a
playoff series against an opponent like the Dodgers without Zach Wheeler.
I don't think the Cubs can win a playoff series
against the Brewer without Kate Horton. So even though I said, well,
I'm not really sure which way I want to go
in this. I kind of, you know, as you two
were talking, I meant to I want to make that point.
Speaker 1: I think.
Speaker 2: I think not having Horton really they were able to
get around it last round, it really hurts them in
a five game series.
Speaker 1: I too, have not sold on on Imanaga.
Speaker 2: He's He's someone that I've sort of looked to fade
down the stretch, you know, bottom ten percent and.
Speaker 1: Exit d low. He's get gets hit hard, doesn't give
up many ground balls. I know that. I know the Brewers.
Speaker 2: It's not like you've got I mean, I would say collectively,
like one to nine, they're they're a threat to hit
the ball.
Speaker 1: Out of the ballpark.
Speaker 2: They might they might not have cal Rawly in the lineup,
but there's still there is still like plenty of guys
on this on this Brewers team that can go deep.
So that's, you know, definitely a concern to me, and
I'll I like, so going back to your point, Tokyo, Brandon.
Speaker 1: Ashby, Yeah, maybe he's not in this game long, maybe
he is.
Speaker 2: I tend to like guys like him in the playoffs
where you've got a manager in Pat Murphy, who's got
the better team?
Speaker 1: Okay?
Speaker 2: I look at the Brewers and I say, Okay, they
definitely regardless of what you think is gonna happen in
this series, I do think the Brewers probably have the
better team, and I think it'd be hard to argue
with that based on what we've seen all season.
Speaker 1: They were they were the better team. You know.
Speaker 2: I look at like this setup and it's like, okay,
So Murphy doesn't really doesn't really have to commit to Ashby,
And I'm not saying that counsel has to commit to
him Inaga, but there are certain scenarios where I think
a commit a pitcher maybe I guess has earned the
right a little bit to go deeper, and maybe Imanaga
is is that guy for the Cubs. Maybe he's not,
but the Cubs have less in the way of like
quality bullpen arms. So I do think that like he
maybe has a longer leash than Ashby. So the reason
I like betting on that in the playoffs is because
you get a guy like maybe he goes once through, okay,
and then they can go and now all of a sudden,
if you're the Cubs, you're gonna get an entirely different
look out of the bullpen middle of the game, right,
and you might get that for three or four innings
if he's.
Speaker 1: Throwing the ball.
Speaker 2: Well, Like I'm certain that that was the plan with
Schlitler and the Yankees the other day, right, I think
you know, if he had he gotten in trouble second time,
you were ready to yeah, they would have taken him out.
Speaker 1: But he's cruised and all of a sudden he's out
there for eight innings.
Speaker 2: So I think that ends up being favorable from a
betting standpoint in the playoffs, because I still think the
books kind of price these games like it's a regular
season game.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 2: I think the books look and say, okay, Brewers Cubs,
at least at the open.
Speaker 1: Now, maybe some of the sharper.
Speaker 2: Betterers are starting to move the market a little bit,
but at least at the open, they're looking at saying,
Immenaga ashby Brewers at home, all right, we'll go minus
one fifteen plus one oh five, right, And I think
that's what they're doing at the open.
Speaker 1: I think they did it a little bit with Schooble
last night.
Speaker 2: Now, that didn't end up working out, but that opened
Schooble minus one thirty, which is what I would expect
him to open on the road in that matchup in
the regular season, when you, I think when people started
to factor in the fact that, like, okay, we got
Tarik School on the road, we got a J. Hinches
the manager like, I think that's why you saw the
Tigers money come in and push that up to minus
one fifty. So I think I'm with you guys that
have it'd very likely to be Brewers or passed for
me here, I kind of him with Brian, I wish
I wish I already did this. If I was gonna
bet the Brewers, I kind of wish I took that
minus one fifteen, minus one twenty. The final point I'll
make right here, though, it's the playoffs. These are are
the handle on these games is much much bigger. So
what that means is you will likely see the Chicago
Cubs contingent come in at some point today and push
this price back down.
Speaker 1: So don't panic.
Speaker 2: In the playoffs, there's always someone that wants the other
side almost almost always, even yesterday that Mariners, that's Scooba
line I think got as high as minus one fifty
five minus one sixty and still came back down as
it got closed at a game time.
Speaker 1: So don't chase.
Speaker 2: I really don't think you have to chase numbers in
the playoffs. They almost always come back a little bit.
Have you guys kind of seen that as well?
Speaker 3: I can see that.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean teams with bigger fan base Let's face it,
ninety nine percent of the betting public are betting because
they like the Yankees or they're Boston Red Sox fans.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 5: They have no logic and no like you know, price
mentality or anything. They just like the Red Sox. So
teams with bigger fan bases, you'll see those lines go
in their favor, especially up the game time. The Yankee
tax gets even more tax right before a Yankees game.
Speaker 2: Well, and I just think that there's there is so
much more recreational money in the play like probably this
is probably bigger more than any other sport where you
basically have like pros betting baseball all summer, right like,
and then I'm not saying like that there's not recreational
baseball betters, but they're far fewer. Okay, Then you get
to the playoffs, and these every game is a standalone
game on national TV. Now we get to the point
of the week where football's you know, maybe not today
because you have Monday night football, but like you'll get
to the middle of the week and suddenly you'll have
people that didn't bet baseball all year trying to fire
on the standalone televised Major League Baseball games.
Speaker 1: That is like something that can't really be like, we shouldn't.
Speaker 2: Be glossing over that, because that's really your edge in
the playoffs.
Speaker 1: I truly believe that. I don't.
Speaker 2: I don't think you're gonna beat the books on a number.
I don't think you're gonna beat the books on a
number when you've got Snell against Lozardo, Dodgers Phillies. Where
you're gonna probably make some money and find some edges
is when there's an overreaction that's gonna move a line
thirty cents, because I'll tell you right now, a playoff
line should not.
Speaker 1: Be moving to forty cents, and just should it.
Speaker 5: And if there's a team that you have your heart
set on betting because you like them, but the price
is too much and a minus one is a good way,
a nice little trick to do as well, because if
they win by one, you get your money back. It's
kind of like pigal poker, but it's much safer than
a minus one and a half. So that's a trick
that I use when I like a team but it's
minus one eighty, I can bring it down to minus
one forty by doing a minus one TB.
Speaker 2: I thought of you the other day, because the books
really don't want to give you that plus one and
a half. In the playoffs, your minus one prices are
a lot better than they were during the regular season.
You're actually like, you're starting to get like fifty cents
instead of thirty, and so I'm with you. In the
playoffs there is minus one has become a much more
viable option in my opinion.
Speaker 5: Do you think the absence of the ghost runner has
anything to do with that?
Speaker 1: I don't know, but no, I think.
Speaker 2: These books don't want to give you plus one and
a half, and the playoff games, I think they're very.
Speaker 5: They're all tight because all the teams are pretty even, right.
Speaker 4: It does have an effect when it comes to totals, obviously,
if you've got a six total or a five and
a half and it goes into extra innings during the
regular season.
Speaker 3: You're screwed, U is now. It's it's specially old olden ways.
Speaker 4: So yeah, there has there has been about a one
to a one and a half run differential on the
Unders in this in these playoffs.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Adam Westbury says, Dodgers World Series ticket plus two
boardy listen like, I can't. I can't argue with that.
I still think that I think they're probably the best
team right now. If I had if you were like
to pin me down, who is the best team currently
left in the leade? You know, we have eight teams left.
Who's the best, it's it would be hard for me
to not say the Dodgers, and that's probably.
Speaker 1: It is really good.
Speaker 5: But blue Jay's rotation, I don't think it's going to
hold up. But man, they look good at home.
Speaker 2: Let me let me ask you this, because we got
a couple of minutes left. Do either of you have
do either of you have any interest in it in
a Yankees ticket to win this series right now?
Speaker 4: Yes, I played it earlier and it was a bad
decision on my part. Luckily I only played a small one.
But yeah, i't and I'm not saying I want bet
on them tomorrow if if we get a good line.
But uh yeah, to win three in a row or
whatever they need to win, I don't think that's gonna happen.
Speaker 5: I wish they gave you because I would take Yankees
over two and a half every game.
Speaker 2: The only reason I I I would sprinkle on it.
If listen, if you went here's what let me tell you.
Let me say this, if you went into this series
liking the Yankees.
Speaker 1: Now I didn't.
Speaker 2: But I'm just saying if you went into the series
thinking that the Yankees were the play in the series,
I would absolutely throw something on them right now because
you're going to get them in the Bronx back to
back games, and they are going to have the pitching
edge most likely in both games, or at least they're not.
Let's put it this way, they're not going to be
at a pitching disadvantage in either game you're looking at
right now, you're looking at Game three tomorrow, Redon against
Shane Bieber. I'm still gonna give Redon the edge at
home there. The Yankees will be favored.
Speaker 1: In that game.
Speaker 2: And then in Game four, you're looking at Schlitler against
probably they'll come back, probably with Gossman, I mean pretty close.
I don't think that the Blue Jays necessarily have an
edge there all of a sudden, Like I'm just saying
the fact.
Speaker 5: They got blown out with their best pitcher out there,
it just makes.
Speaker 2: That doesn't mean that's one game that doesn't matter. I'm
talking about the way these are set up. Listen, the
way that these five game series are set up. And
this is just to just to speak to series prices,
series betting, because I think a lot of people will
get involved in that, so we might as well.
Speaker 1: We'll talk about it a couple of minutes.
Speaker 2: I still think there's an element of, like you're holding
serve at home a little bit. So I don't think
you should just abandon the Yankees because they went and
lost a couple of games in Toronto. They haven't even
played a home game yet. If they win tomorrow, it's
like very much gonna be serious.
Speaker 3: Yeah it's game.
Speaker 2: You don't you mean to tell me you wouldn't get
to Game five with Freed and feel like pretty good
about yourself, Like it's yeah, he had a bad start,
but I mean he's an all right elite.
Speaker 1: It's kind of like.
Speaker 5: Tennis you know, if you can win, If you can
win you know a set, you changed the whole match.
So yeah, you're right. If the if the Yankees can
win tomorrow's game, it's series is on. You're right.
Speaker 2: It'd be different to me if the if the Blue
Jays were sitting on like a like a Zach Wheeler
or like a like a schoobl or someone that they
were really gonna have to then come out and beat
in that game. That's what I think the undoing is
of the Blue Jays at some point is that they
don't have that guy. And yes, the Savage is very
good yesterday, but I don't think he's that guy yet.
I mean, he's still he's not going to pitch.
Speaker 5: He's not going to pitch that way every game. But
he is uber talented, no doubt.
Speaker 2: Man.
Speaker 5: That one pitch he has I think he got. I
think he got fifty five percent of his strikeouts with
that what was it a split change or whatever?
Speaker 2: Man, that basically his splitter and it is I mean,
if he could throw that for a strike at the
bottom of his own there's no one's going to hit
it hotly.
Speaker 5: He could, like I said, he could call that pitch
and they can't hit it. Yeah, but yeah, you're you're
probably right if the price was like plus three hundred.
If the Yankees win tomorrow, they're back in this series.
There's no doubt about that. And Rodin is probably the
advantage pitcher over over Bieber. But we can cover that
tomorrow's show.
Speaker 1: That's right, we will. Uh yeah.
Speaker 2: So while while we have him been and I'm gonna
promo a couple of things. One, we'll be back tomorrow
nine am Eastern. Toward the end of the month, we
are going to start doing the College Bass Football Show myself,
Brian Power, and Rob Veno, and we're going to do
a couple of live preview shows in this format. So
if you're like me and you're gonna get off this
stream and start researching the American Conference, which I think
is probably what I'm going to do for the rest of.
Speaker 1: The next couple hours. That's we're going to try to
do some preview shows.
Speaker 2: If you remember the last couple of years I did
all these preview videos, I said, I don't know if
enough people are watching them.
Speaker 1: I'm not going to do that this year.
Speaker 2: I think we're going to go just live shows and
let you guys, we're going to do like the Power
for show and then just let you ask questions kind
of in this format, because that's what we're going to
try to do, is take this show the same format
and then do it during college basketball, which is kind
of insane because there's three hundred and sixty four Division
I college basketball teams. But you know what, we got
Rob Veno and the guy's brain is an encyclopedia.
Speaker 1: So I think we're gonna be. I think we're going
to be just fine right there.
Speaker 5: So Brian, do you be college basketball?
Speaker 4: I do basketball and I've had a lot of success
on it. And tomorrow's hockey hockey season starts, so real
excited about that. I don't know if they still have
my special going, but if you buy the hockey season
and a discount actually, and you get the rest of
the baseball for free, it's still up on the site.
If it's not there, just talk to the girls and
they'll honor that for you.
Speaker 5: Uh.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm really excited about everything else going on right now,
and I'm gonna have to run, but yeah, let's let's
get uh let's get some good baseball going today and
hopefully we'll get some winners.
Speaker 5: Yep, nine dollars. MLB plays none to five percent. MLB
plays nine dollars for the rest of the season. Uh So,
go to wagtalk dot com. Tomorrow is five dollars Tuesday.
We'll promote that in tomorrow's show.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and if you missed any part of the show,
we did pretty thorough breakdowns of both tonight's games, Phillies, Dodgers,
Brewers Cubs. If anyone's got to play up today, since
I don't think anyone's got a five percenter in baseball today,
it will be nine dollars on our respective pages and
we will see you guys back here in the morning
nine am Eastern.
Speaker 1: Enjoy the games tonight, see you guys tomorrow