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Speaker 1: What only a few games left before the Super Bowl.

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We're gonna break down conference championships up next on bet

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on It. Kelly Stewart here, Yanni the Greek, and Marco DiAngelo.

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This is bat on It, and we are going to

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talk all things conference championships. We got two games this weekend. Guy,

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something's gonna have three games left of football season. The

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national Championship is gone. Congratulations. Any of those that took

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my advice and did not lay more than minus one

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twenty on their teasers, Okay, fine, I'm done bomb my pulpit. VR, Marco,

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We're gonna get right into this. We're gonna go first

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and foremost. Jared Sidham four bo Nicks has been the

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talk of the week here. Patriots have bounced around from

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the opening number four and a half up to five

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and a half forty two and a half. Here is

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the total. Hey, Drake may I kind of bashed him

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the other day, said I was not impressed with his

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playoff performance. I know he's had a really good regular season,

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but over the last couple of weeks he started to falter,

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especially when holding on to the football and or not

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throwing it to other opponents. VR first and foremost Bonix

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to Jared Stidham, I think this line has gotten way

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out of control. There were look ahead lines Broncos minus

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one and a half. There were look ahead lines Broncos

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pick them. There were talks that the Patriots should have

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been a favorite in Denver. Break down this one for

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me from a power ratings perspective, and then we'll get

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Marco's opinion on the quarterback drop off as well.

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Speaker 2: Well, we know with Sentin Tea that here in Las

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Vegas they were prepared to open Denver about a one

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and a half point favorite with Bonnicks. That's what they're

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saying now. The switch is about what we're looking at.

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It was his high as five and a half, so

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you're looking at about a seven point adjustment going through zero.

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It's called six six and a half or so. So

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you're talking about a touchdown difference between bone Knicks and

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Jarrett's Didham. Here's the bottom line bone Knicks. When I

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look at the passing success rate, all right, he's right

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about average. He's nineteenth. The cutoff point the league average

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is forty five point two. He's forty five point six,

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So he's a league average quarterback in passing success rate,

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which really isn't all that bad because I mean they

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were like some like Baker Mayfield, you know, he was

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thirty third, So I mean there were some quarterbacks and

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even like some Stroud twenty third. There were some guys

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that were just playing last week, you know, that had

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a lower passing success rate.

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Speaker 3: But it's not a top five guy.

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Speaker 2: That's the bottom line, compared to may who is number

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two in passing success rate. And we know that's one

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of the highest correlations to winning football games. And it's

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no surprise Stafford from the Ramses number three. You know,

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they're all right there when you look at that that data.

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But what should the dropoff be. You look at bon Knicks.

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Here's his quarterback rating in twenty twenty five, Kelly eighty

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seven point eight. Here's his QBR in twenty twenty four,

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ninety three point three, So let's cut that down the middle.

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Over the last two years, he's averaged about a ninety QBR.

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We look at Jared Stidham. The last two years that

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he had a decent sample size of passes was twenty

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twenty three at Denver where he had an eighty seven

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point seven and then in twenty twenty two in Las Vegas,

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where he had an eighty nine point two. All right,

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so his average is out over those his two seasons

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of playing quarterback.

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Speaker 3: Is about an eighty eight.

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Speaker 2: So we have a ninety average for bo Nicks over

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two seasons, and we have an eighty eight average over Stidham.

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Not that big of a dropoff, as the betting line suggests.

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With that said, that would stit them in twenty twenty two,

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twenty twenty three. We're now in twenty twenty six. So

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has he regressed a lot off of those two seasons.

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If you think so, then you're getting the best of

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it with New England. If you don't think that's the case,

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and the drop off isn't as great, then it's an

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automatic bet on the Denver Broncos. I will tell you this.

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I thought, on a neutral field, New England, I mean

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in Denver, all things being even, I thought New England

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should be about a half point favorite. My power ratings

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show they shouldn't even be about a one point favorite

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over Denver. Now you add in the quarterback. From that perspective,

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it's not as high because again they would have made

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Denver the favor. I would have made New England the favorite.

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So from my perspective, the dropoff isn't as significant as

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it seems for Vegas Marco.

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Speaker 1: We can talk about this for a very long time.

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Let's just be real. There is going to be arguments

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on the drop off the significance. We do know Sean

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Payton has done very well with backup quarterbacks in his career,

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but again, this is a new team now for Jared Sinhim,

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though he's been on this roster for three years, does

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that hold any weight in this handicap determining whether sin

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Him is worth a drop off or not.

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Speaker 3: Well, obviously, yeah, he hasn't gotten any playing time. So

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here's the problem. We don't know what the drop off

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value really is worth. You know, you always have, you know,

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the player replacement, but we haven't seen him, So how

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can you say what he's worth or what he's not worth.

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Here's my problem, and here's where you know I disagree,

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And now I'm not disagreeing with VR's power ratings, but

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I'm looking at this from the reality of what we

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saw with our eyes in what the mark market closed,

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and we always say the market at close is the

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most efficient. Okay, last week Denver closed a one and

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a half point favorite versus Buffalo. Okay, right before we

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went on the air, I asked U, Kelly and v

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R what you would have made Denver or excuse me,

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New England and Buffalo on a neutral field. Okay, Buffalo

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would have been a favorite on a neutral field. And

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we know that because they just played in New England

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a couple of weeks ago. Buffalo was the road favorite

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in New England, all right, And if Denver was laying

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one and a half last week to Buffalo and now

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they're coming in with New England, now I'm saying this.

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Had bow Nicks played, I would have made the line

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two and a half. And that's what I made the

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number before I knew, you know, knew that bow Nicks

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was hurt. I'm saying, if it was going to be

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New England, it was going to be two and a half.

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I think this line is too much of a move. Okay,

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we don't know anything about Jared Stindham. But what I

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do know is what I saw from bow Knicks. And

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although he's, you know, a decent quarterback, he's not a

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great quarterback. He's still only a second year quarterback as

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is Drake May. He's not worth seven points and to me,

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that's what the market is adjusted. Because I have this,

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it would have been two and a half and we're

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at four and a half right now. It was as

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high as five and a half. I think there's too

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much value with not looking at Denver and when you

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break the game down in itself, Kelly, we don't know

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what they're gonna do with him. There's no game film. Okay,

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that's a huge advantage. Yeah, so disadvantages you don't have

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bow knicks, but it's an advantage that what are you

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gonna game plan for. You don't know what they're gonna

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run with him. They're gonna run plays that are in

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his comfort zone. He hasn't played in three years, Okay,

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so there's really nothing to see to try to prepare for.

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I think that gives Denver a huge advantage coming out

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of the gate. And let's be honest. New England won

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last week twenty eight to sixteen against a team that

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turned the ball over five times. You know. CJ. Stroud was,

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you know, passing out footballs like they were Christmas presents.

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Last week. He had an absolutely horrible game, and yet

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Houston was still in it until the pick six. This

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is a spot where I think the line is too high.

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But you know what, I'm not gonna go for the

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full game. Here's the way I'm gonna attack it. I

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think it's gonna be a tight, defensive game, and the

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advantage is gonna go to Denver early because they said

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the unknown factor. I'm gonna take Denver first half in

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this game and get me to halftime at home, playing

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in your stadium. The crowd's going to be in it.

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They're gonna be conservative, you know that. But this defense

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has played well and I think they can run the football.

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If you look at what Houston or excuse me, New

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England has done in the last few weeks. The last

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three games, they did shut the teams down running. But

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who did they play in the last three games? Miami

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the last, you know, last game this season. Then you

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played the Chargers, who the offensive line was an absolute mess.

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And then last week, Yeah, they shut down Houston in

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that game. That was impressive, but you go back to

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three weeks before that, they gave up one hundred and

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sixty four on the ground, one seventy one on the ground,

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one sixty eight on the ground. I think Denver is

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gonna be able to move the football in this game

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on the ground, and I know Sean Payton he will

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take some shots in here when you think he's gonna run.

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Give me the points first half with Denver.

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Speaker 1: I can't believe you gave that entire synopsis without using

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the injured player theory.

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Speaker 3: One same a time, Marco, that was on my notes

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and I jumped over my eyesight's getting bad.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, Marcos had like four eye surgeries since the

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summertime and he still complains about his eyesight. So we

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got any optometrists out there that I want to exchange

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some great sandwich Delli picks for eye surgery. No, all

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jokes aside Marco. That is the very first thing that

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came to my mind.

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Speaker 3: VR.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about this total forty two and a half

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across the board on the Odds logic screen. Unlike the

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side right, the sides four and a half, five, five

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and a half, it's kind of a mixed bag if

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you will, and I get it, five is a quote

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unquote dead number, if you will in NFL betting. But

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my thoughts here initially are how can you not win

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about the over right? Like my brain goes over because

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what we saw last from both of these teams.

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Speaker 3: C J.

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Speaker 1: Stroud did, as Marco said, hand the ball over a

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ton in that game, so that obviously helped put the

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Patriots in good field position. But I've been touting this

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Denver defense all season long, and so I kind of

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want to go contrarian here and take the under. Remember

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the last time the Broncos won the Super Bowl with

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a statue of a man wearing a glove named Peyton Manning,

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it was on the backs of their defense. Talk to

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me about this defense at home in the altitude. It

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does look like it's gonna be nice weather, so that

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does bode well for both teams and possibly some scoring.

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Speaker 3: Well for me.

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Speaker 2: I'll keep it real. I've been trusting my numbers. I

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know some guys don't like hearing it, but I trust

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my power ratings and they've steered me towards profit in

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college football, and they've done the same in the NFL

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and more importantly, in the divisional round. Just last week,

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I went eight two and one, so I went eighty

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percent in the divisional round. Eleven bets cash eight pushed

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on one, picked up sixteen units and over forty four

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percent return on investment. Tell you and I win, tell

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you when I lose, And right now we're locked in.

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Here's what I can tell you. I bet the over. Immediately,

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my subscribers, that's what they pay me for. They got

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over forty one. This is now forty two and a half.

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So it's a much different bet. It's on you whether

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you want to follow us or fade us. But here's

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the bottom line. Our power rating made this total forty five.

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So immediately I was looking to the over, but then

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I needed to dig in and see does the matchup?

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Does the handicap make sense? And I think it does

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because even though we have a little recency bias of

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high scoring. You know Denver putting up thirty three points

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last week allowing thirty. When you look back over the

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last couple weeks, Denver hasn't been putting all up that

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many points. The week Pride they put up nineteen. The

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week before that they put up twenty, the week before

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that they put up twenty, and if you look at

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the totals for Denver, they were thirty eight and a half,

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thirty eight and a half, like there were some low totals.

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So it's not like the narrative was this is a

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high scoring team. Same thing with New England, known for

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their defense this year Top five defense, number six inefficiency.

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The argument is that's been against the weakest strength of schedule.

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But with that said, over the last four opponents, they've

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only allowed one to score more than ten points and

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that was sixteen against Houston, a team that they beat.

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So this defense has done their job, and all the

239
00:13:13,000 --> 00:13:15,879
narrative is defense, because here's what I have when I

240
00:13:15,919 --> 00:13:20,240
look at these two teams, they're very, very comparable. In fact,

241
00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:23,720
everyone knocks New England for their thirty second strength of schedule.

242
00:13:23,799 --> 00:13:25,480
Well guess what, Denver's thirty first.

243
00:13:25,879 --> 00:13:26,600
Speaker 3: So that's it.

244
00:13:26,799 --> 00:13:29,159
Speaker 2: Like Denver had just as easiest strength of schedule as

245
00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:31,519
New England has, So both of them had the easiest

246
00:13:31,519 --> 00:13:34,799
strength of schedules in the NFL. New England's tenths in

247
00:13:34,919 --> 00:13:40,519
offensive efficiency, eighth in defense, Denver fifteenth in offense efficiency,

248
00:13:40,639 --> 00:13:43,080
eighth in defense. Forgive me, New England was sixth in defense,

249
00:13:43,240 --> 00:13:46,080
So six ten and six for New England, fifteen and

250
00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:47,759
eight for Denver.

251
00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:49,080
Speaker 3: What do both have?

252
00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:52,960
Speaker 2: The strength is on the defensive side. I talked about

253
00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:55,240
it and in last week's video, how we hit both

254
00:13:55,279 --> 00:14:00,519
of those totals. That the bias is towards the under

255
00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:04,039
because the defenses had been the standouts on both these teams.

256
00:14:04,120 --> 00:14:06,960
So we're going to get a little lower number. But

257
00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:11,279
what do we say last week? Defenses forced turnovers? Houston

258
00:14:11,320 --> 00:14:16,200
did that and Denver did that. Short fields, special teams,

259
00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:19,879
those things turning the points. So don't automatically go under

260
00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:23,639
because you're talking defense. So I sound like a broken record,

261
00:14:23,679 --> 00:14:25,480
But if it ain't broke, don't try to fix it.

262
00:14:25,679 --> 00:14:29,240
And I stick to my numbers. I stick to my theories, and.

263
00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:30,200
Speaker 3: So far, so good.

264
00:14:30,279 --> 00:14:33,879
Speaker 2: So over forty one was a four percent best bet

265
00:14:33,919 --> 00:14:36,279
for me. At forty two and a half, I don't know.

266
00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:38,279
I'd probably wait till Sunday and see if it could

267
00:14:38,360 --> 00:14:40,440
drop back a little bit, because now you're talking about

268
00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:43,159
some key totals forty two, forty three, those numbers matter

269
00:14:43,279 --> 00:14:45,320
forty one, so I would look to get the best

270
00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:45,600
of it.

271
00:14:46,039 --> 00:14:49,519
Speaker 1: The are already answered my question very key number there

272
00:14:49,600 --> 00:14:51,639
of forty two, So now sitting at forty two and

273
00:14:51,679 --> 00:14:54,320
a half is probably a no play. If you missed it,

274
00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:58,000
It's okay, it might come back. We'll see Marco, your

275
00:14:58,080 --> 00:15:01,320
thoughts on this total and one to the over for

276
00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:04,879
the Patriots Broncos coming off as straight off win five

277
00:15:04,919 --> 00:15:09,039
and one to the over. That is the really hard

278
00:15:09,039 --> 00:15:12,080
part for me. Right, These small sample sizes start to

279
00:15:12,159 --> 00:15:12,919
kind of trickle in.

280
00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:13,120
Speaker 3: Right.

281
00:15:13,159 --> 00:15:14,879
Speaker 1: I had somebody tweet the other day like, oh, Kelly

282
00:15:14,919 --> 00:15:17,879
loves cherry picking eleven game sample size, and it's like

283
00:15:18,639 --> 00:15:21,159
you're just trying to find a little bit of something

284
00:15:21,360 --> 00:15:25,799
to back up what you're already. You know looking at right,

285
00:15:26,559 --> 00:15:28,840
you're not necessarily the trends and angles guy. That is

286
00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:31,720
our good friend Ralph Michaels, and he's gonna have tons

287
00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:33,120
of stuff up for you guys for the Super Bowl.

288
00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:36,720
You are a deli guy, so talk to me, mister

289
00:15:36,759 --> 00:15:39,759
sandwich man, on what you like for the total here.

290
00:15:40,639 --> 00:15:44,000
Speaker 3: Oh Kelly, I'm also a contrarian like you, in I

291
00:15:44,039 --> 00:15:46,639
looked at it differently. You thought the contrarian play was

292
00:15:46,679 --> 00:15:48,919
the under. I think the contrarian play is the over.

293
00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:51,919
And the reason I say that is because the narrative

294
00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:55,480
is if you look at New England's two games, they

295
00:15:55,559 --> 00:15:59,480
were lower scoring games. They shut the Chargers down completely.

296
00:15:59,519 --> 00:16:03,159
That game was sixteen to three, and last week. You know,

297
00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:05,799
it was twenty eight to sixteen, and that's only got

298
00:16:05,840 --> 00:16:10,919
to twenty eight because of CJ. Stroud and the five turnovers. Yes,

299
00:16:11,279 --> 00:16:14,759
it looked like an over from the Denver side because

300
00:16:14,879 --> 00:16:18,519
it was a thirty three point thirty track meet with Denver.

301
00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:21,960
But the narrative is there's no bow Nicks, and if

302
00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:24,320
Denver's gonna win this game, people are gonna think of

303
00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:27,360
it as a correlated parlay. For Denver to win, they

304
00:16:27,399 --> 00:16:30,480
got to win with the defense because they're not gonna

305
00:16:30,519 --> 00:16:33,480
do anything with Jared Stidham. So to me, I think

306
00:16:33,519 --> 00:16:37,759
the public's gonna think more about the under because of

307
00:16:37,799 --> 00:16:42,679
the situation with the proposed defenses and the inability of

308
00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:44,440
having to go to a guy that hasn't taken a

309
00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:47,639
snap in three years. I think you'll see the opposite.

310
00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:50,159
I think you'll see some scores here. If I played

311
00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:53,960
the total, I would play the game over and that's

312
00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:55,600
the way I would do it, because to me, that's

313
00:16:55,639 --> 00:17:00,399
the contrarian play. All right, get.

314
00:17:00,279 --> 00:17:04,440
Speaker 1: Into the next game, the NFC Championship game. Matthew Stafford

315
00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:06,720
has had a interesting.

316
00:17:06,119 --> 00:17:06,839
Speaker 3: Stretch, right.

317
00:17:07,119 --> 00:17:10,559
Speaker 1: I wouldn't think he struggled at Carolina, but had to

318
00:17:10,599 --> 00:17:13,960
make some plays late there to win that football game,

319
00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:18,160
then in an absolutely other crazy fight there in Chicago

320
00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:21,680
in the awful weather, and now they're on the road

321
00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:23,279
for the third straight week. Marco, I'm gonna go to

322
00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:25,559
you first. Rams are a two and a half point favorite,

323
00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:27,880
total forty seven and a half. I want to tease

324
00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:30,279
the Rams, and there's nothing to tease them with.

325
00:17:31,599 --> 00:17:34,119
Speaker 3: Oh, Kelly, there isn't anything to tease them with. But

326
00:17:34,640 --> 00:17:37,279
you know, I'm gonna go there and say, you know,

327
00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:45,000
I would not totally hate teasing the Rams with Denver

328
00:17:45,200 --> 00:17:47,880
because it is four and a half and using a

329
00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:50,440
six point teaser, you are gonna get it to ten

330
00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:53,519
and a half. If it gets back to five and

331
00:17:53,519 --> 00:17:56,880
a half, you're going through another team number of eleven

332
00:17:57,240 --> 00:18:00,599
in a game that has a low total. Know that's

333
00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:05,319
not the traditional long teaser, but when you look at

334
00:18:05,319 --> 00:18:09,160
low totals and you're gonna give me double digits, I'm

335
00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:12,119
gonna be a little bit interested in that wager. So

336
00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:15,519
I wouldn't totally rule that out. But you hit the

337
00:18:15,559 --> 00:18:17,920
nail on the head that the Rams in the last

338
00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:22,119
two weeks had to go right down to the end. Okay,

339
00:18:22,279 --> 00:18:25,200
they had that quick fourteen to nothing lead over Carolina,

340
00:18:25,599 --> 00:18:29,160
and then defense let them down and let Carolina back

341
00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:32,240
in that game, and it was Stafford that had to

342
00:18:32,279 --> 00:18:34,200
get that drive at the end of the game to

343
00:18:34,319 --> 00:18:37,039
win it. And then last week was just pure and

344
00:18:37,079 --> 00:18:40,240
other chaos. And you know, I'm sitting there watching that game,

345
00:18:40,519 --> 00:18:43,519
and you know when Caleb Williams threw that fourth down

346
00:18:43,559 --> 00:18:46,519
play from the forty yard line, just backing up, throwing

347
00:18:46,599 --> 00:18:50,640
off his back foot and throwing an absolute strike to

348
00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:55,039
the end zone for the touchdown, I sent you and

349
00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:58,759
our buddy j D. I hate the fn Bears. You

350
00:18:58,799 --> 00:19:01,240
know how many times do they get pull this off?

351
00:19:01,559 --> 00:19:04,960
But they found a way to win that game. The

352
00:19:05,039 --> 00:19:09,279
narrative here is Seattle looked really good last week, okay,

353
00:19:09,519 --> 00:19:14,039
and they split the regular season, both won on their

354
00:19:14,039 --> 00:19:18,119
home field, but they were both close games. And in fact,

355
00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:22,440
if you go back, five straight games in this series

356
00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:25,880
has been decided by six or fewer points. But here's

357
00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:29,519
where the narrative is, the last time these two played,

358
00:19:29,799 --> 00:19:33,319
what the score was, and what the score was of

359
00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:36,319
the two games of the Rams so far in the playoffs.

360
00:19:36,599 --> 00:19:39,119
If you want to talk about being a contrarian, step

361
00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:41,519
right up this is the game to be a contrarian

362
00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:44,640
because these two teams went up and down the field

363
00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:47,119
the last time they played. But I'm gonna point out

364
00:19:47,559 --> 00:19:50,200
that was a Thursday night game, short week to prepare.

365
00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:54,559
Now it's the playoffs, and I can tell you Seattle

366
00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:59,119
does not want to get into another shootout with the Rams.

367
00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:02,960
They won play field position. They want to establish the

368
00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:07,480
run and continue to run the football until the Rams

369
00:20:07,559 --> 00:20:11,200
prove they can stop it. Because you know, I like

370
00:20:11,279 --> 00:20:13,240
Sam Darnald. I know he gets a bad rap for

371
00:20:13,279 --> 00:20:16,400
the last two games of last year, but you know

372
00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:19,240
you don't want to get into a shootout with Sam Donald.

373
00:20:19,319 --> 00:20:21,720
You want him to be more of a game manager.

374
00:20:22,079 --> 00:20:24,440
And I think the public's gonna look at this total

375
00:20:24,519 --> 00:20:27,880
and they're gonna go over based on recency bias. And

376
00:20:28,079 --> 00:20:32,240
you've got a five point adjustment from that Thursday night game.

377
00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:35,319
How many times do we say, you know, don't overreact

378
00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:39,839
to one score. This is a division game, they know

379
00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:43,200
each other well, and they're not playing on a short week.

380
00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:47,400
They've got the full time to look at preparing for

381
00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:49,880
this game. I'm gonna go under in this one. I'm

382
00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:52,880
gonna take the inflated line of forty seven and a half,

383
00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:56,599
and you know what, because the public doesn't get involved early,

384
00:20:57,119 --> 00:21:00,079
this probably ticks up to forty eight forty eight and

385
00:21:00,079 --> 00:21:01,240
a half by Sunday.

386
00:21:02,799 --> 00:21:06,039
Speaker 1: All right, VR, Before I get your opinion here on

387
00:21:06,279 --> 00:21:08,279
the total, one of the things that I think that

388
00:21:08,319 --> 00:21:11,920
Seattle does really well outside of their defense, outside of

389
00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:15,680
Sam Donald when he's good Sam Donald and not making mistakes,

390
00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:20,000
is running the football. Zach Sharvina out with an ACL

391
00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:23,640
tear hasn't really been mentioned, and I get it. In

392
00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:27,799
the new NFL, running backs just are not that valuable, right.

393
00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:30,119
We don't pay them enough money or as much as

394
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:33,960
we used to. We don't really downgrade their backup much.

395
00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:35,960
But I do think that the drop off is a

396
00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:40,519
little something worth noting here, at least from Seattle side

397
00:21:40,599 --> 00:21:43,200
of things. Two and a half across the board on

398
00:21:43,279 --> 00:21:45,880
the Odds logic screen, do you agree with Marco? Is

399
00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:49,000
this like a unique teaser situation kind of spot or

400
00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:51,160
are we looking at the wrong side of this football game?

401
00:21:51,599 --> 00:21:54,359
Speaker 2: Well, I already teased that I cheated. I teased that

402
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:55,839
went Indiana on Monday night.

403
00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:59,920
Speaker 1: I was gonna say that because the last week that

404
00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:01,720
the comment session got so mad at mean, they're like

405
00:22:01,799 --> 00:22:03,960
Kelly tells us after the fact, So I didn't want

406
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:05,559
to be the after the bad guy. But yes, of

407
00:22:05,559 --> 00:22:06,799
course I teased it with this listen.

408
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:10,359
Speaker 2: I didn't send it out to subscribers or anything like

409
00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:13,119
that because my jobs to send plus CV stuff to

410
00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:17,599
them and again do my best to make sure they're profitable.

411
00:22:17,759 --> 00:22:20,000
And I felt, you know, I liked Indiana. I had

412
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:23,559
Indiana wanted some more action on them, and that was

413
00:22:23,599 --> 00:22:25,599
a way to get down And I had liked the

414
00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:27,759
teaser number on the RAMS and figured I'm not going

415
00:22:27,839 --> 00:22:30,400
to get a better side the teas and that's why

416
00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:33,839
I did it again because the numbers were available, and

417
00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:37,119
I just thought, you know, these two teams, like Marco said,

418
00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:39,839
know each other extremely well. They played very tight games,

419
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:43,119
and the teaser just made sense. Now as far as

420
00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:46,160
this total goes, it's it's tough, man, because you had

421
00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:49,000
the first game that went under and it was a

422
00:22:49,079 --> 00:22:51,119
high total forty eight and a half, and then they

423
00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,279
adjusted down to forty one and a half. That's what

424
00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:55,880
was weird to me as I started digging through this game.

425
00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:58,480
Why did they adjust so down to forty one and

426
00:22:58,519 --> 00:23:01,680
a half, Because going in to that Seattle game on

427
00:23:01,759 --> 00:23:02,440
Thursday night.

428
00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:05,119
Speaker 3: The Rams had scored forty one the week before.

429
00:23:04,799 --> 00:23:07,400
Speaker 2: That, forty five the week before that, twenty eight and

430
00:23:07,519 --> 00:23:10,000
thirty four. So this was a team that had scored

431
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:13,559
like forty plus points average in four straight weeks and

432
00:23:13,599 --> 00:23:16,799
it wasn't like their defense was holding anybody. They allowed

433
00:23:16,839 --> 00:23:21,119
thirty four to Detroit, thirty one to Carolina, So they

434
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:25,359
really had a lot of respect obviously for this Seattle defense.

435
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:30,000
And that is also a little surprising because yet they

436
00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:33,319
are number one in efficiency now. But going into that

437
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:36,960
game with La, yeah, I guess you could say they

438
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:40,160
were running good. You know, they had shut out Minnesota,

439
00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:44,119
they allowed nine against Atlanta and sixteen against Indiana Indianapolis.

440
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:46,480
But before that, they were allowed on twenty twenty twenty

441
00:23:46,519 --> 00:23:50,279
Tennessee La and Arizona. But it's been of late. Other

442
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:53,680
than that Rams late game, this defense has shown up.

443
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:56,960
And I said number one in efficiency, but that's against

444
00:23:57,039 --> 00:24:01,319
the twentieth strength of schedule. Now they're going up against

445
00:24:01,319 --> 00:24:04,559
the number one offense in the Rams, who played the

446
00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:07,200
number two strength of schedule, So we know the Rams

447
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:11,160
offense is legitimately the best offense in the NFL. They're

448
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:14,599
the best offense that Seattle is going to be facing. Luckily,

449
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:17,680
they faced them twice already, so they have, you know,

450
00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:21,480
an understanding what they're going up against. And I think

451
00:24:21,599 --> 00:24:24,759
that's why you're starting to see the sharp money coming

452
00:24:24,799 --> 00:24:28,440
in on the under. Forty seven and a half's got

453
00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:32,359
taken out. I saw forty seven juice at some of

454
00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:37,720
the Sharper shops, so definitely it looks like sharp money

455
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:42,000
is on the under here. I haven't fired yet because

456
00:24:42,039 --> 00:24:44,799
my power ratings actually show that this line should be

457
00:24:44,839 --> 00:24:49,920
about forty nine. So that's where I'm having this issue.

458
00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:51,720
And if I'm not able to confirm nothing, I'm just

459
00:24:51,759 --> 00:24:55,359
going to pass on the total. No reason to force anything. Again,

460
00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:58,599
there's tons of player prompts, tons of team total signs,

461
00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:01,079
all kinds of stuff to get down to. But that's

462
00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:03,599
what I could share there, that my power rating shows

463
00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:06,680
the over, but the sharp Moneys on the under. I

464
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:08,839
could just tell you what I have up until right now.

465
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:11,240
So for me, this would be a pass. If it

466
00:25:11,279 --> 00:25:14,480
was going off the night gun the head, I would

467
00:25:14,519 --> 00:25:17,480
go under because it's a playoff game, because of the

468
00:25:17,559 --> 00:25:21,119
high score in the last matchup, and because they didn't

469
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:25,880
adjust off of that, Like, again, they scored seventy something points.

470
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:29,599
The total is came down off of that game. Doesn't

471
00:25:29,599 --> 00:25:32,599
make too much sense. So the market read tells me under.

472
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:36,200
Everything points to under except the power rating, and that's

473
00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:36,880
where I'm stuck.

474
00:25:37,519 --> 00:25:37,880
Speaker 3: All right.

475
00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:40,279
Speaker 1: A couple of programming notes. We are going to film

476
00:25:40,279 --> 00:25:44,880
our Super Bowl special on Monday, February second, in the afternoon,

477
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:48,880
so it will be out that evening. Marco, you're doing

478
00:25:49,039 --> 00:25:53,079
a college basketball version of the DELI tell me what's

479
00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:55,359
going on with that, what people need to be looking

480
00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:56,720
for and where they can find it.

481
00:25:57,599 --> 00:26:01,119
Speaker 3: Kelly comes out on Fridays and what we do, and

482
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:03,599
obviously we're doing it on Friday morning. So I'm giving

483
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:07,200
you the situational stuff like I always do, the sandwich spots,

484
00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:10,000
the trap games. I break it down for you, but

485
00:26:10,039 --> 00:26:12,640
then I tell you come back in whenever you see

486
00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:16,319
the video is posted. I will come back in after

487
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:19,279
the lines are out and they stabilize a little bit,

488
00:26:19,319 --> 00:26:21,440
because you know, there's a lot of movement on these

489
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:24,680
basketball lines, and you know those first couple hours when

490
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:26,920
they do come out Friday evening, and I'll tell you

491
00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:30,200
if all the plays are still plays in the comment

492
00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:33,400
section four and two start to it. So if I

493
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:36,480
can go sixty seven percent for the season on the

494
00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:39,799
deli with the basketball, we will be very happy with that.

495
00:26:40,079 --> 00:26:42,440
So be sure to check that out on Friday. And Kelly,

496
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:45,799
don't forget we still have at wager Talk. They'll buy

497
00:26:46,839 --> 00:26:49,039
seven day package for the price of three. That is

498
00:26:49,079 --> 00:26:51,720
a great way to go. You get every play from

499
00:26:51,799 --> 00:26:56,599
your favorite kapper for just sixty nine dollars for seven days.

500
00:26:56,680 --> 00:27:00,920
Remember the weekend Warriors forty nine dollars. That's Saturday and Sunday.

501
00:27:01,079 --> 00:27:03,839
Why not get a full week for twenty dollars more?

502
00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:07,160
Right now, take advantage of it. It's gonna be expiring soon.

503
00:27:07,559 --> 00:27:09,359
Seven days for sixty nine dollars.

504
00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:13,880
Speaker 1: V are we talked about on last call last Saturday.

505
00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:16,240
You're gonna start pivoting the steam room. Steamroom is gonna

506
00:27:16,279 --> 00:27:18,200
be on Sunday this week?

507
00:27:18,519 --> 00:27:21,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, to the super Bowl. Fill the super Bowl. Yeah,

508
00:27:21,799 --> 00:27:24,960
and then right after the Super Bowl boom. We moved

509
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:29,200
to Saturday because of college basketball UFC and you know,

510
00:27:29,319 --> 00:27:31,440
just so much live stuff that comes in. Plus, I

511
00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:34,319
could go longer than the sixty minutes up until kickoff

512
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:36,680
in the NFL, so we could go ninety minutes two

513
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:38,960
hours so I could answer any questions, go over all

514
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:43,039
the risk management. So yeah, definitely Sunday through the Super

515
00:27:43,039 --> 00:27:44,279
Bowl because I want to be there for all the

516
00:27:44,279 --> 00:27:46,559
player prompts and all that that come in for conference

517
00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:49,920
championships and the super Bowl. But then we're going to Saturdays,

518
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:52,279
and yeah, that's gonna be a lot of action then

519
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:52,799
for sure.

520
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:56,079
Speaker 1: And I'm pivoting as well. I'm gonna be joining the

521
00:27:56,079 --> 00:27:59,160
Full Court Press guys on Saturdays for college basketball season.

522
00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:00,640
I'm gonna see if I get VI in there for

523
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:02,400
the first ten or fifteen minutes to give me some

524
00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:05,279
of his info. Of course, get that behind the counter

525
00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:07,759
look from the Westgates super Book, and then do a

526
00:28:07,799 --> 00:28:11,240
full hour of college basketball there. But don't worry, we'll

527
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:14,160
be back February second to do our Super Bowl show

528
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:17,000
that includes all of our favorite prop bets as well

529
00:28:17,039 --> 00:28:19,680
as side in total and of course those best bets

530
00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:22,319
just for you, guys. Just want to say shout out

531
00:28:22,319 --> 00:28:24,880
to everybody hanging out with us all football season long.

532
00:28:25,079 --> 00:28:26,960
Please give us that thumbs up, don't forget to hit

533
00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:30,559
the subscribe button and tell us how you think about

534
00:28:30,599 --> 00:28:34,759
some of these opinions. There in the comments section. Next

535
00:28:34,799 --> 00:28:36,799
time we see you, guys, we will have the Super

536
00:28:36,839 --> 00:28:39,759
Bowl set. Until then, let's beat on it.

