Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to the Dynasty Dude podcast. I'm your host,
Corey Evans. This week's show is titled Sunk Costs in
Dynasty Fantasy Football. I have ten players who are at
that point of becoming a sunk cost or that threshold
in value has now passed, And by that I mean
you're left holding the bag. There is a very slim
chance you will be able to get an ROI return
in investment that is anywhere near what their peak value was,
so you've either waited.
Speaker 2: Too long or more likely to not.
Speaker 1: Their dynasty market has rapidly changed, and unfortunately you and
now I left the sunk cost. But there is still
some name recognition that could salvage value and it's better
to cash out for twenty five cents to.
Speaker 2: Fifty dollar ben pennies and a dollar.
Speaker 1: So these are in a cent ten sell candidates or
drop if needed some more than others. And I came
about this exercise by going through my Dynasty leagues prior
to the offseason kicking off post Super Bowl and seeing
if I had any easy cuts or players a pivot
off of that I think are in this sunk cost label.
Before I get to that, we had a review left
by Joe Luken's thirty two on Apple five stars title
great show it read. Loved the show, would love a
longer show with other great analysts, but overall a very informative,
smart and entertaining show. If you got someone funny on
here with you, this could be a top independent podcast
in this industry. Overall, keep it up. Thanks for that, Joe.
I appreciate the feedback and the five star review. When
I actually started this podcast, gosh nine, ten years ago,
to this point, I did have guests on. But it's
so difficult and you'll know this if you're in the
podcast industry to coordinate with a guest every single week
that I had to just put it in my own
hands and make it my own schedule each and every
week to deliver a consistent product to you.
Speaker 2: But I do.
Speaker 1: Understand who you're coming from there and the funny aspect.
I try to bring some humor to this show, but
it's difficult when it's more of a straightforward to the
point conquer your analysis. I know what you mean though, Joe,
and thanks again for taking the time to write that
quick review. Anyone else listening if you want to shout
out on a future episode do the same thing. Five
stars and written on Apple Podcasts equals a direct shout
out that I will read aloud whenever you leave that review.
One last housekeeping note before we get things started is
my roster calls on Google Meet thirty bucks thirty minutes,
fifty dollars one hour. A great time of the offseason
to now reach out and coordinate those with me to
get a good pulse and feel for your team entering
the off season process. We talk about trade ideas, roster cuts, strategy.
Reach out if interested to Dinasty do pod on all
social media platforms, or even send me an email to
dynastydupodgmail dot com. We'll get that locked in and set
up a sap. Some costs in Dynasty Fantasy Football these
are no specific order.
Speaker 2: Add all up.
Speaker 1: First is Kyle Pitts, who will be twenty five in October.
In twenty twenty four, he went forty seven for six
zho two and four touchdowns twelve point eight yards per
catch across seventy four targets.
Speaker 2: Underwhelming. That's become the overriding.
Speaker 1: Theme with Kyle Pitts, whether it's a lack of usage
in consistency. His annual PPR Titan finished. This is becoming
a pro are six thirty three, thirteen and fifteen six
being the outlier.
Speaker 2: Otherwise he's been a tight end two or worse.
Speaker 1: Pitts did go sixty eight ten to twenty six and
one scores a rookie in twenty twenty one, yet has
not surpassed fifty three catches, six hundred and sixty seven
yards receiving, or ninety targets in three seasons since that
standout first years of pro Sure, there's the speculation or
the rumor mill of Pitts being a trade candidate for
Atlanta perhaps defects offensive line help or defensive side of
the football with a loaded offensive group with Bjon Robinson obviously,
Drake London, Darnold Mooney. Time will tell at this point,
though Kyle Pitts is a sunk cost compared to what
it cost you to draft him in a rookie's yard
of draft years ago.
Speaker 2: Up next is Jayden Reid.
Speaker 1: He's twenty five in April twenty twenty four, fifty five
eight fifty seven and six, scores fifteen point six yards
per catch as a receiver, seventy five targets, and chipped
in twenty rushes for one hundred and sixty three yards
on the ground and a touchdown. He was the PPR
wide receiver twenty nine overall, which is good not great
compared to all the puff and buzz and the hype
from his rookie to software campaign, and quite honestly, Jayden
Reid was fairly close to his twenty twenty three rookie output,
which as a reminder, was sixty four seven ninety three
to eight ninety four targets and eleven rushes one to
nineteen in the ground two scores as the PPR wide
receiver twenty five, again good not great. There is room
for improvement, however, it has to come in the form
of counting stats, receptions, yardage, touchdowns. He had eight as
a receiver and two as a rusher in year one
that's ten, and then as a sophomore six and one
eagling seven. He is extremely dependent upon finding the end zone.
If there's any regression negatively scoring touchdowns, Jayden Reed is
going to barely be in the Fox conversation. That being said,
in my opinion, it seems as if Reed has leveled
out as a wide receiver two with that sort of
ceiling and as more of a gadget player than true
difference maker as a pass catcher. And if you don't
want to take my word for it, look up what
Josh Jacobs has said himself recent interviews over the past
week or so that Green Bay needs a true alpha
wide receiver one and that currently does not have one
on it's roster. Bro that's reed Christian Watson, who could
be out for half, if not most, of the next
season with his knee injury, Romeo Dobbs with his concussion history,
Downtavi Alwick's with the drop issues. The Packers have to
get an improvement at that position because of all the
expectations that were placed on Red and three twenty twenty four.
He's more of a sunk cost than stable last set.
The yards per catch of twelve point four and fifty
point six over his first two years do showcase reads
big playability. I'm just not sold that he's a perennial
one hundred plus target option, and so far he has
not been, with ninety four targets and seventy five targets
in each of those first two seasons. Up next is
Deontay Johnson. He turns twenty nine in July twenty twenty four,
a thirty three to three, seventy five and three receiving
efforts eleven point four yards per catch. It was a
wild season, seven games to play with Carolina for Baltimore
and one with Houston. Was at one point suspended by
Baltimore for conduct detrimental to the team. Baltimore, funny enough,
ended up claiming Johnson on waivers after Houston waived him,
which was a brilliant move by the Ravens front office
for a possible now competitory draft pick. More to come
on that when all the dust settles. Johnson is unrestricted
free agency candidates in twenty twenty five, hard envision on
the NFL team committee a large contract due to his
care concerns and unwillingness to participate even on the field
during his time with Baltimore and even with Houston, both
teams moved on accordingly, and outside of his PPR wide
receiver eight season with Pittsburgh in twenty twenty one, Deontay
has simply been overrated as the wide receiver forty one,
twenty one, thirty, forty five, and eighty six. If you
had I any shares remaining of Deonte, I'm would cash
out for a twenty twenty five to third. A second
is far affetched, borderline impossible. One have to settle for
a fourth of this point unless he signs with a
clear contender. Even at that point, though, what's the most
you're going to get? Probably a second to a third.
So why don't take that now and invest in a
twenty twenty five rookie as opposed to being stuck with
a sunk cost that is Deontay Johnson. Tank Dell is
twenty six in October in twenty twenty four was a
fifty one six sixty seven to three log thirteen point
one yards perception eighty one targets. The injury history is
the reason why I believe a sunk cost label fits
Tank Dell.
Speaker 2: He had a.
Speaker 1: Concussion in twenty twenty three, a fibula fracture in twenty
twenty three, a chest brain in twenty twenty four, and
then the devastating knee injury in twenty twenty four that
was an acl torn and dislocated kneecap, both of which
required separate surgeries or will at some point for Tank.
Based on early reports and rhetoric out of Houston. It
sounds like It's going to be an uphill battle for
Dell's return, if at all, in twenty twenty five, with
the Texans unwilling to put a timeline on his return,
which does cast some serious doubt into his role with
Houston heading to twenty twenty six. Even assuming he's a
field in twenty twenty five, he could be stashed in
IR so he's not as detrimental to your roster as
other sunk costs in this episode. Larger picture, however, it's
clear that Tank Dell's stock is heading the wrong direction.
Not talent based, it is, unfortunately his injury history and
that smaller body stature.
Speaker 2: Both of the.
Speaker 1: Significant injuries a fibular fracture and the torn acl in
this codneycap have been wrong place, wrong time. But again
this reality in Tank Dell's unfortunately going to be having
that injury prone label associate with his name, which inherently
sinks his dynasty value and trademarket cost. How about Jermaine Burton.
He turns twenty four in June. Last year as a rookie,
four catches one hundred and seven yards twenty six point
eight yards perception fourteen targets. He was a third rounder
eightieth overall selection out.
Speaker 2: Of Alabama to the Bengals.
Speaker 1: Admittedly, the Bengals front office came clean and said it
was a high risk, high reward pick based on his
character issues that followed from Alabama to the pro level.
That has truly become a murky situation. Based on most
articles or piece of information I've read, it is far
from a lock that Burden makes the team in twenty
twenty five based on curfew gambling that led him being
healthy and active, or scratch based on coach decisions in
twenty twenty four, let alone him being linked to a
domestic dispute. Bengals Director play personnel Duke Tobin about Burden
one question of if he deserves a Roch spot or not.
Quote He's done nothing and he's going to have to
start doing something quickly.
Speaker 2: End quote.
Speaker 1: That is not good news for Jermaine Burton. I want
out of the Burton business. I actually have no shares
of him. If you do in Dynasty, take what I
can get a third or fourth of this point, the
odds that he is a relevant or be sustainable career
arc with all these surrounding variables and issues off the
field seem like a long shot. Think Martabos Bryant, as
talented as he was, cannot keep it all together and
unfortunately was a waste of talent for NFL purposes. Time
for a quick break and I'll be right back with
five more sunk costs in Dynasty Fantasy Football. If you
want access to my my positional previews on Patreon for
all rookies and eventually my predraft rankings, now's the time
to sign up over on Patreon, link in episode show notes,
or head to patreon dot com and find.
Speaker 2: Me as a Dynasty dude.
Speaker 1: Even in email or message to me on social media,
I'll give you that direct link. This upcoming week is
the quarterback preview, then the running back the following week
wide receiver and tight end, and by that point the
combine will be right here and I'll be able to
publish my predraft rankings that are in episode, as well
as tiered Google sheet form three tiers which grant you
access to my content different levels of it. On Patreon,
you have five hours, twelve dollars twenty five dollars per month.
You can check that all out on my page and
see what fits your budget. And interest the most be
right back. Next player is Nick Chubb, who turns thirty
in December. He tours ACL early in twenty twenty three
twenty twenty four. He did come back in eight games,
played a one, two, three, thirty two and three rushing log,
three point three yards per tote, five catches one yards
and a touchdown eleven targets. Then broke his foot in
Week fifteen. So with back to back serious season ending injuries,
free agent this offseason, Chubb has expressed his desire and
interest to return to Cleveland. Can't say that Clevelands Runt
Office agrees. Time will tell. Chubb was at one point
a top rusher in the NFL and fantasy world alike,
with PPR finishes of eight, eleven, thirteen, and six over
the span of twenty nineteen to twenty twenty two. Due
to the aforementioned injuries, that stretch has ended, along with
what I believe his long term relevance.
Speaker 2: And fans of football.
Speaker 1: Even if he gets a veteran contract one to two years,
Chubb's days of being a lead, volume driven back are
likely over looking at a committee member who is losing
a bit of his luster, not to his own faults
of injuries, but that's reality of the running back position.
Try to get out if you can. In Dynasty, Tyler
Lockett is thirty three and September twenty twenty four was
a forty nine six hundred and two touchdown season twelve
point two yards per catch.
Speaker 2: On seventy four targets.
Speaker 1: His first season actually since twenty eighteen without at least
one hundred target so from twenty nineteen to twenty twenty
three he had at least one hundred targets to his name.
Clearly took a back seat this year to JSN and
DK Metcalf, Lockett had a dominant run, picking up where
things left off from Doug Baldwin with Seattle for twenty
eighteen to twenty twenty two, with wide out finishes in
Fantasy of seventeen, thirteen, eight, fifteen, and thirteen even so,
twenty twenty three and twenty twenty four are proof in
the Pudding that Lockett is being phased out, if not
already offensively as a PPR wide out thirty two and
in twenty twenty four wide receivers C six, respectively, it
is time to pass the torch to JSN and DK.
If not others that we aren't even aware of yet
via Fregancy or the upcoming twenty twenty five draft. Not
saying that Lockett is washed or done, but his time
in Seattle usage wise seems to have come close to
an end. If not, there already more of a veteran
present in a locker room than true on field contributor.
Seattle does have an out or potential out this offseason
for thirteen point eight nine to five million in debt
cap space, and of course the trade or wave possible
ability to then reunite with Pete Carroll in Las Vegas
with the Raiders makes a lot of sense on paper,
especially if someone like Russell Wilson ends up there and
you get the whole band back together pre speculation. Even
if that is the case and best outlook is locked,
anything more than a wide receiver three at this stage
of his career, probably not if you could take a
third or a third and a fourth in separate classes
twenty twenty five twenty six do so, Lockett is training
in the wrong direction and ultimately it's probably worth no
more than a fourth when it's all said and done.
But there are people that will buy that name recognition
Deebo Samuel. He turned twenty nine in January. He went
fifty one, six seventy and three scores for thirteen point
pint yards per catch and forty two totes for a
butt thirty six and one Russian score for three point
two yards per carry.
Speaker 2: This past season forty nine ers GM.
Speaker 1: John Lynch has cast aside all the trade request and
or possibilities and made it clear that he wants Debo
to return in twenty twenty five. Samuel is under contract
to keep in mind with the team until twenty twenty six. Listen,
Deebo's had one Elite seed in his EnnL ten year
as the wide receiver three and Fantasy in twenty twenty one,
and one above average campaign wide receiver fifteen and twenty
twenty three. Otherwise, Samuel has performed as the wide receiver
thirty two, ninety six, forty and forty four. That is
more boombust that meets the eye, and Deebo is perhaps
one of the most overrated assets in the fantasy game,
not saying he's a bad talent, but the usage is
sporadic and he benefits on the ground. Only one Christian
mccafrey mi his time Deebo has plenty of durability woes
he's dealt with on the forty nine Ers. This is
a classic case of Debo being a popular player in
the sports great to his actual cost in ADP or
draft capital not aligning with the actual.
Speaker 2: Stats he produces.
Speaker 1: If you can get a late first, early mid second
in twenty twenty five draft capital, I would take that
and run for Deebo and not question it even if
he has another bounce back campaign. Ricky Pier saw Brandon Ayyuk.
There's a lot of pieces, even Juwan Jennis. Perhaps that
could usurp or make Debo less relevant with the forty
nine Ers franchise Step found he turned thirty.
Speaker 2: Two in November.
Speaker 1: In twenty twenty four, he went forty seven to four
ninety six three scores ten point six yards per catch
in eight games played. His usual possession skill set was
on full display, but he did tear his ACL in
Week eight with Houston. He's a UFA to test reagancyed
his offseason. Another top tier season is not out of
the realm up possibilities for Diggs, who registered a one
hundred bus perceptions from twenty twenty to.
Speaker 2: Twenty twenty three while with Buffalo.
Speaker 1: He was even on pace for another one hundred catch
campaign in twenty twenty four prior to the injury with
the Texans.
Speaker 2: The issue now is twofold free.
Speaker 1: Agent market, is it positive, negative, or neutral? And then
the projected target share coming off of a tourney ACL
Entering his age thirty two season, I highly doubt that
Diggs will command a wide receiver one workload. He could
be a two or a high end three for an
NFL team. It's not a great free agent class or
rookie wide receiver class, so Diggs has that working in
his favor. I don't foresee though, a blockbuster package being
sent his way to sign, even with a contender. Therefore,
Digs more on the wide receiver two to three worst
case flex borderline, whereas we're accustomed to that one hundred
catch threat. So, like Deebo, plenty of name recognition baked
into Digs and his profile and fantasy cash out for
a late first, early mid second if you can, he
might have more leverage with Diggs than Deebo, depending on
your league and interest level. Finally, last Banal least clyde
evergeu Lair turns twenty six. In April, he only had
thirteen totes for forty six yards three and a half
yards per rush, three catches twenty four yards, five targets,
and two games played with the Saints this season no
production with the Chiefs. He was a thirty second overall
pick two k C in twenty twenty, and that rookie
year was the PPR RB twenty two, which at the
time seemed very bright in terms of the future. It's
a shame because his rookie season was a joy to
watch in what seemed like a near perfect fit for
the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. It's a reminder of that
running back shelf life is fragile and something to change
year after year. Out side of a few players of
the position. Since that rookie season, as the RB twenty
two in fantasy, Cech has paced as RB forty five,
forty six, fifty eight and one oh four. He is
no longer a must roster in NACI formats and can
be dropped if needed to clear space for twenty twenty
five draft picks or better alternatives. Even now on the
waiver wire, Cech is unfortunately a sunk cost and he's
a roster Clogger would not be shocked if he latched
on with another team, becomes a committee member or a
backup in twenty twenty five, but the days of his
rookie potential are long gone.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening.
Speaker 1: Hope you enjoyed this sunk Costs episode. For players the
ten that I brought to the table. I'm sure there's
a lot more, if any really hit home with you
as candidates to include for this topic than when I
post this episode on social media. Comment so I'm aware
and can see how I might have missed them, or
even reach out to men social media. It's always fun
to engage with you, my audience, that communication back and forth.
Thanks again, until next time, this is the Dynasty checking out.
Speaker 2: We'll have a great rest of the week. You soon
see Yao
Speaker 1: Boo boo