WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.080 --> 00:00:02.080 I think inertia is a good word to use to 2 00:00:02.120 --> 00:00:04.519 describe what we see happening right now, because if there 3 00:00:04.559 --> 00:00:06.559 isn't a change in policy, if it's the same policy 4 00:00:06.639 --> 00:00:10.919 just amplified or reduced, it's the inertia of the operation 5 00:00:11.000 --> 00:00:13.919 continues moving in the same kind of general direction, which 6 00:00:13.960 --> 00:00:17.559 is the hardening of Iran's regime, the weakening of US 7 00:00:17.600 --> 00:00:20.039 influence in the region, the growth of Saudi Arabia as 8 00:00:20.039 --> 00:00:22.719 a power regionally, the decline of Israel as a power 9 00:00:22.760 --> 00:00:24.320 in the region. And one thing on the horizon we 10 00:00:24.359 --> 00:00:27.000 haven't talked about is the growth of Turkey also in 11 00:00:27.039 --> 00:00:28.920 the region, because Turkey has always had the dream of 12 00:00:28.960 --> 00:00:32.759 returning to the Ottoman control over these places between today's 13 00:00:32.799 --> 00:00:34.359 Turkey all the way down to Yemen. 14 00:00:38.079 --> 00:00:40.880 All right, guys, hey, welcome everybody to another episode of 15 00:00:40.920 --> 00:00:44.759 Eyes on Geopolitics. I'm here with Jack Murphy, Jonathan Hackett, 16 00:00:44.759 --> 00:00:49.479 and Mick mulroy. A lot happening as usual. Throughout this 17 00:00:49.520 --> 00:00:53.960 past week. We had been striking Iran, that had stopped, 18 00:00:54.679 --> 00:00:57.479 and then there was talk more and more about a 19 00:00:57.520 --> 00:01:04.480 bigger hit potentially hitting like energy infrastructure. Saint con Commander 20 00:01:04.599 --> 00:01:10.879 General Bradley Cooper briefed President Trump about a bigger campaign 21 00:01:10.920 --> 00:01:13.959 that would that would roughly take about two weeks. I 22 00:01:14.000 --> 00:01:17.680 feel like we're living this war two weeks at a time. Frankly. 23 00:01:19.840 --> 00:01:23.519 Another interesting thing I saw from Axios that the Trump 24 00:01:23.599 --> 00:01:27.840 officials basically were giving We're saying, how like they were 25 00:01:27.879 --> 00:01:32.159 surprised about a Ran being so aggressive in terms of 26 00:01:32.200 --> 00:01:35.400 like the negotiations, which is like, I don't know how 27 00:01:35.439 --> 00:01:37.480 they could be shocked by that. They begin pummeled for 28 00:01:37.519 --> 00:01:42.719 four months and like they're still around. And as the 29 00:01:42.760 --> 00:01:46.120 week was leading on, it was You're hearing more and 30 00:01:46.120 --> 00:01:48.680 more about a bigger strike, bigger strike or bigger campaign 31 00:01:48.760 --> 00:01:51.680 essentially probably with in conjunction with Israel at least that 32 00:01:51.760 --> 00:01:58.000 was the talk. And last night basically it was paused. 33 00:01:58.040 --> 00:02:00.400 I don't know if Trump put out a state or 34 00:02:00.400 --> 00:02:02.239 a tweet or whatever saying that, oh yeah he did. 35 00:02:02.239 --> 00:02:04.079 It was like ridiculous. You guys can go ahead and 36 00:02:04.159 --> 00:02:07.280 read it. I'm not gonna read it for you. It was, 37 00:02:07.319 --> 00:02:10.280 you know, one of Trump's regular ridiculous kind of tweets 38 00:02:10.280 --> 00:02:14.080 that he writes a lot of stuff happening in the 39 00:02:14.080 --> 00:02:16.280 background too that I was reading about, like Saudi Arabia 40 00:02:16.439 --> 00:02:20.639 NBS called up Trump uh to like, I guess, you know, 41 00:02:21.159 --> 00:02:23.280 have Trump like a kind of exercise restraint and stuff 42 00:02:23.319 --> 00:02:26.360 like that, because Iran had you know, warned and tell 43 00:02:26.479 --> 00:02:30.159 everybody supposedly too that they hit up like Pakistan, Saudi 44 00:02:30.159 --> 00:02:34.639 Arabia and Turkey. Uh that if they helped us in 45 00:02:34.680 --> 00:02:37.599 any way with this campaign or this bombing, that they 46 00:02:37.639 --> 00:02:41.479 would be in line for some sort of retaliation. So 47 00:02:42.879 --> 00:02:45.560 ended up last night late, like not even late last night, 48 00:02:45.599 --> 00:02:48.840 it's probably like nine pm Eastern. Trump releases that tweet, 49 00:02:49.120 --> 00:02:51.719 says it's not gonna happen, and then there's a possible 50 00:02:51.759 --> 00:02:54.680 deal on the table. This is shit we've heard before 51 00:02:54.879 --> 00:02:58.280 many many times. Uh, I don't know what the fuck's 52 00:02:58.319 --> 00:03:03.680 gonna happen. You guys tell me. It's beyond frustrating to 53 00:03:03.759 --> 00:03:05.439 live this over and over and over again. It's like 54 00:03:05.479 --> 00:03:08.840 Groundhog's Day. So I'd love to know what you guys 55 00:03:08.840 --> 00:03:12.280 are tracking with this. Mick, you go first. 56 00:03:13.840 --> 00:03:17.360 So I was I mean all week, as in every 57 00:03:17.360 --> 00:03:21.599 week talking about this on ABC, talking about trying to 58 00:03:21.639 --> 00:03:27.400 isolate the regime economically, et cetera, sanctioned secondary sanctions, and 59 00:03:27.439 --> 00:03:30.599 then I see brother Jonathan talking to brother Jack about 60 00:03:30.599 --> 00:03:32.520 how much it isn't going to work. I was like, 61 00:03:33.000 --> 00:03:36.280 damn it. And then maybe I don't know if you guys, 62 00:03:37.360 --> 00:03:39.840 I mean, obviously those two know what I'm talking about. 63 00:03:40.960 --> 00:03:43.400 But maybe it's a good thing that Jonathan kind of 64 00:03:43.560 --> 00:03:47.599 does a summary of that. Again, I'm still going to 65 00:03:47.680 --> 00:03:49.919 advocate that we have to do something so, but I 66 00:03:49.960 --> 00:03:52.680 think it's important to point that he had in that 67 00:03:52.800 --> 00:03:55.240 of how the regime is kind of figured out the 68 00:03:55.319 --> 00:03:58.400 way around that and essentially they still become rich, that 69 00:03:58.479 --> 00:04:01.639 it only really impacts the people. So I think we 70 00:04:01.680 --> 00:04:04.719 need to take that into consideration. But I'll leave that 71 00:04:04.719 --> 00:04:08.759 for Jonathan to explain even more. But so where we 72 00:04:08.800 --> 00:04:11.159 see this week, We're in a situation right now where 73 00:04:11.280 --> 00:04:15.560 we obviously can't leave it at the current state or 74 00:04:15.639 --> 00:04:18.079 we have failed. And I always look at this as 75 00:04:18.120 --> 00:04:21.839 we look at it as a partisan thing. Be so 76 00:04:21.839 --> 00:04:23.120 I want to figure out a way out of this 77 00:04:23.240 --> 00:04:26.800 that is successful for the United States, which I think 78 00:04:27.000 --> 00:04:31.000 also translates successful for the region and the world. Right, 79 00:04:31.360 --> 00:04:33.759 So we can't leave it like this. Rono controls the 80 00:04:33.800 --> 00:04:38.800 straighter Homotes, that's unacceptable. They are likely going to go 81 00:04:38.839 --> 00:04:42.920 for a nuclear weapon now, So we haven't ensured that 82 00:04:42.959 --> 00:04:45.399 they will never get at nuclear weapon. We probably have 83 00:04:45.680 --> 00:04:49.560 in part inspired them to. I think Midnight Hammer did 84 00:04:49.639 --> 00:04:52.600 degrade it. But now the people that are in power, 85 00:04:52.959 --> 00:04:54.839 and I think could make a very good case that 86 00:04:54.920 --> 00:04:57.319 if they would have had the nuclear weapon, which some 87 00:04:57.360 --> 00:04:59.600 of them have been advocating for the whole time, they 88 00:04:59.639 --> 00:05:02.439 wouldn't be getting attacked right now. And I think even 89 00:05:02.480 --> 00:05:07.360 if you know, you're any American who despises the Urinian regime, 90 00:05:07.399 --> 00:05:10.000 you can still put yourself in their position and say, 91 00:05:10.360 --> 00:05:13.439 so what I right, I would rather be you know, 92 00:05:13.560 --> 00:05:18.079 North Korea than are on right now. So we have 93 00:05:18.199 --> 00:05:20.680 not met that objective. We have to figure a way 94 00:05:20.680 --> 00:05:23.639 to meet that objective. The objectives that we came close to, 95 00:05:24.000 --> 00:05:28.519 like degrading their ballistic missile capacity, manufacturing capacity, et cetera, 96 00:05:30.399 --> 00:05:32.879 are going to be replaced. So they are going to 97 00:05:32.879 --> 00:05:35.079 be replaced. So within six months, I don't know what 98 00:05:35.079 --> 00:05:37.920 the assessment is, but whatever the assessment is, we will 99 00:05:37.920 --> 00:05:40.759 get to a point where they have replaced it, maybe 100 00:05:40.800 --> 00:05:43.920 exceeded it, and now definitely aren't going to restrict themselves 101 00:05:43.920 --> 00:05:48.319 on amount and range. So we're going to get in 102 00:05:48.360 --> 00:05:52.319 a place where even that wasn't a success, at least 103 00:05:52.560 --> 00:05:54.879 at the time that they reach it. So what are 104 00:05:54.879 --> 00:05:57.800 we going to do differently? I really and I know 105 00:05:57.879 --> 00:06:02.439 this might be difficult for the current administration, but they're 106 00:06:02.480 --> 00:06:05.480 going to have to do a little humble pie with 107 00:06:05.639 --> 00:06:09.040 the international community. Talk about the fact that even though 108 00:06:10.360 --> 00:06:12.720 none of them may have agreed or very few of them, 109 00:06:12.879 --> 00:06:15.800 with the US going to war thrown, this is impacting 110 00:06:16.240 --> 00:06:19.959 the world. It's impacted their people. This is a global 111 00:06:20.040 --> 00:06:24.920 trade issue. International waterways shouldn't just be the responsibility even 112 00:06:24.920 --> 00:06:27.920 if we had a potential cause in it of the 113 00:06:28.000 --> 00:06:30.759 United States, whether it's military coalitions. I know we talked 114 00:06:30.759 --> 00:06:34.319 about this last nine political coalitions, how to isolate the regime, 115 00:06:34.399 --> 00:06:38.240 how to find IRGC commercial infrastructure around the world, seize it, 116 00:06:38.600 --> 00:06:42.240 stop it, affect it. I know this isn't going to 117 00:06:42.240 --> 00:06:45.519 be the be all answer to any of this stuff, 118 00:06:45.560 --> 00:06:48.360 and it's probably going to take a long time, but 119 00:06:50.000 --> 00:06:53.560 something needs to change their perspective. The current situation, other 120 00:06:53.600 --> 00:06:57.000 than a major escalation is not going to change their mind. 121 00:06:57.639 --> 00:06:59.720 And the assessment of at least the CIA and DI 122 00:07:00.279 --> 00:07:03.120 is even the massive escalation isn't going to change your mind. 123 00:07:03.240 --> 00:07:07.040 So where do we go from here? I think that 124 00:07:07.199 --> 00:07:09.399 is at least part of the answer. But I do 125 00:07:09.480 --> 00:07:14.319 think Jonathan's point to Jack earlier in the week, I 126 00:07:14.360 --> 00:07:15.720 think I think it was this week, I don't know, 127 00:07:16.879 --> 00:07:18.160 needs to be addressed as well. 128 00:07:20.279 --> 00:07:22.399 Yeah, and the thing that you're mentioning Nick about what 129 00:07:22.480 --> 00:07:24.040 Jack and I talked about, we did like an Iran 130 00:07:24.079 --> 00:07:26.720 deep dive, like a special episode, like a historical kind 131 00:07:26.720 --> 00:07:29.600 of you know, narrow focused talk. I think that was 132 00:07:29.759 --> 00:07:32.439 this past week came out so for listeners if they 133 00:07:32.439 --> 00:07:33.720 missed that, they can check that out. 134 00:07:33.759 --> 00:07:34.560 Was like off schedule. 135 00:07:35.000 --> 00:07:37.720 But basically we were discussing all kinds of things about Iran, 136 00:07:37.720 --> 00:07:39.839 but in particular the sanctions, because that's a big hot 137 00:07:39.879 --> 00:07:42.120 topic in the West, not just the United States, but 138 00:07:42.160 --> 00:07:44.879 even back when the JCPOA was being negotiated, that was 139 00:07:44.879 --> 00:07:47.439 a question of how do we fit sanctions into the 140 00:07:47.480 --> 00:07:49.879 JCPOA as part of it, as a as a you know, 141 00:07:49.920 --> 00:07:53.120 a response to them breaking parts of the JCPOA, plus 142 00:07:53.120 --> 00:07:56.040 separate US sanctions and separate EU sanctions that could be 143 00:07:56.439 --> 00:07:59.160 relied upon to influence behavior, because that's the whole point 144 00:07:59.160 --> 00:08:02.000 of using the economic instrument of national power, is to 145 00:08:02.040 --> 00:08:05.240 influence the outcome of another state's behavior in a way 146 00:08:05.279 --> 00:08:09.240 that's beneficial or at least neutral not negative to us. 147 00:08:09.920 --> 00:08:13.360 And that big question is do sanctions do that? And 148 00:08:13.560 --> 00:08:16.360 I argue that no, they don't if they're alone, if 149 00:08:16.399 --> 00:08:20.120 they're used as a single insular tool to affect a 150 00:08:20.120 --> 00:08:23.480 country that's an authoritarian state. No, And the reason is 151 00:08:23.639 --> 00:08:28.040 sanctions are designed to harm capitalist countries. For example, in 152 00:08:28.079 --> 00:08:31.480 a democracy like America, if another state that was powerful, 153 00:08:31.480 --> 00:08:34.600 like China, for example, sanctioned America in some way, let's say, 154 00:08:34.600 --> 00:08:38.720 on car manufacturing parts or Amazon items at their point 155 00:08:38.720 --> 00:08:42.519 of origin, or crude oil production that produces plastics, which 156 00:08:42.559 --> 00:08:45.080 the US relies heavily on, like somehow affecting this massively 157 00:08:45.120 --> 00:08:47.600 so it touched a lot of Americans. Americans would go 158 00:08:47.639 --> 00:08:49.480 to the polls and they would vote and change the 159 00:08:49.519 --> 00:08:53.720 political representation in a way that would modify that, and 160 00:08:53.759 --> 00:08:56.200 that would be something that China would benefit from. That's 161 00:08:56.279 --> 00:08:59.360 how a sanction would work in a democracy. Unfortunately, countries 162 00:08:59.399 --> 00:09:03.159 like China, North Korea, Iran and others are not democracies 163 00:09:03.159 --> 00:09:05.759 at all, and they're actually designed to separate the small 164 00:09:05.840 --> 00:09:08.080 kernel of leaders from the rest of the population. In 165 00:09:08.120 --> 00:09:10.720 Iran is an excellent example of that. Where the small 166 00:09:10.799 --> 00:09:14.600 kernel of elites are extremely resilient and they have dense 167 00:09:14.639 --> 00:09:17.919 real estate portfolios in London, they have money in banks 168 00:09:17.919 --> 00:09:19.720 all over the world. They have Swiss bank accounts with 169 00:09:19.759 --> 00:09:22.279 billions of dollars. That's why there's been all this discussion 170 00:09:22.320 --> 00:09:25.440 about unfreezing assets. And let's say South Korea, for example, 171 00:09:25.480 --> 00:09:27.639 there's like six billion dollars sitting in a bank account 172 00:09:27.879 --> 00:09:29.360 that doesn't belong to the Iranian people. 173 00:09:29.399 --> 00:09:29.960 Well, I mean it. 174 00:09:29.879 --> 00:09:32.919 Does technically, but it's not accessible by them. Instead, it's 175 00:09:32.960 --> 00:09:35.799 the regime alone that has control over this. And that's 176 00:09:35.799 --> 00:09:37.919 a big problem with sanctions is that, Okay, you sanction 177 00:09:38.120 --> 00:09:41.200 an authoritarian state, they're just going to ignore the sanctions. 178 00:09:41.240 --> 00:09:43.159 They're going to further oppress the people. They're going to 179 00:09:43.200 --> 00:09:45.799 squeeze every dollar and cent out of those people. They're 180 00:09:45.799 --> 00:09:47.879 going to continue working in the black market. And it's 181 00:09:47.879 --> 00:09:49.600 important to remember, even in the United States, where we 182 00:09:49.639 --> 00:09:52.960 have capitalist economy that is free, most of our economy 183 00:09:53.000 --> 00:09:55.679 is actually in the private markets. It's not public that 184 00:09:55.679 --> 00:09:57.679 there's a whole shadow banking system. In the United States, 185 00:09:57.679 --> 00:09:59.480 for example, you can't go and open a bank account 186 00:09:59.480 --> 00:10:03.039 at JP Moore or at Morgan Stanley, but that's where 187 00:10:03.080 --> 00:10:04.799 most of the assets in the country sit is in 188 00:10:04.840 --> 00:10:08.000 these non bank banks. Iran has non bank banks too, 189 00:10:08.120 --> 00:10:10.240 so does Russia, so it does China. That's how all 190 00:10:10.279 --> 00:10:13.679 these transactions are happening every day, billions and billions of 191 00:10:13.679 --> 00:10:17.440 dollars a day moving between these countries despite these sanctions. 192 00:10:17.960 --> 00:10:20.679 So there is a lot of arguments for sanctions and 193 00:10:20.720 --> 00:10:22.600 a lot of arguments against sanctions. But I think it's 194 00:10:22.600 --> 00:10:25.000 something that's not debated enough and understood from the perspective 195 00:10:25.000 --> 00:10:28.600 of the ones being sanctioned, not from American consumption of 196 00:10:28.679 --> 00:10:30.919 you know, voters who say, oh, it's good we did something. 197 00:10:31.720 --> 00:10:33.919 It's good to do something, but maybe there's other things 198 00:10:33.960 --> 00:10:36.360 to do as well in conjunction with that. Right now, 199 00:10:36.360 --> 00:10:38.600 we're using a military instrument, which we're using in Iran. 200 00:10:39.159 --> 00:10:41.919 We're also using an economic instrument. We're attempting to use 201 00:10:41.960 --> 00:10:45.080 a diplomatic instrument, attempting here and there, and it's very 202 00:10:45.159 --> 00:10:47.919 haphazard compared to the other two instruments. But there needs 203 00:10:47.960 --> 00:10:50.639 to be some more unification across these different instruments so 204 00:10:50.679 --> 00:10:53.320 that they're all going towards the same objective. Like you mentioned, Mick, 205 00:10:53.360 --> 00:10:55.840 there are certain objectives here they have to be unified. 206 00:10:56.159 --> 00:10:58.039 You can't have three different objectives for each of these 207 00:10:58.039 --> 00:10:59.960 instruments going after the different objectives. They have to be 208 00:11:00.200 --> 00:11:02.600 the same objective with little components that kind of all 209 00:11:02.639 --> 00:11:04.559 lead to this larger grand objective. 210 00:11:06.720 --> 00:11:10.080 So we could still go after the IRGC commercial infrastructure 211 00:11:10.159 --> 00:11:13.240 sees it to affect them since they are not insulated 212 00:11:13.240 --> 00:11:16.039 from their own means of crazy. 213 00:11:16.799 --> 00:11:19.039 Absolutely, and actually a great example of that is I 214 00:11:19.080 --> 00:11:22.200 mentioned this before, like Audi and Mercedes for example, they're 215 00:11:22.240 --> 00:11:25.039 not allowed to ship completed vehicles to Iran. So what 216 00:11:25.080 --> 00:11:27.000 they do is they just separate the pieces by several 217 00:11:27.039 --> 00:11:29.720 inches and put styrophone between them in giant box and crates, 218 00:11:29.960 --> 00:11:32.200 bring them into Iran, take the little pieces out, put 219 00:11:32.200 --> 00:11:34.639 the vehicles together. Now you've got a complete vehicle. Because 220 00:11:34.639 --> 00:11:36.360 the way the law is written, it cannot be a 221 00:11:36.360 --> 00:11:39.720 completed vehicle ship to Iran, but pieces can be. Both 222 00:11:39.759 --> 00:11:42.519 sides are very smart. Both sides have an economic interest 223 00:11:42.639 --> 00:11:46.080 in evading this law. Right, same thing in London, there's 224 00:11:46.120 --> 00:11:49.519 certain rules about how foreigners can own assets in the UK. 225 00:11:50.000 --> 00:11:52.639 The IERGC commanders read this and they're like, oh, I 226 00:11:52.679 --> 00:11:55.000 can just avoid this by incorporating a new business in 227 00:11:55.039 --> 00:11:57.840 company's house, which is the UK's registry for basically like 228 00:11:58.080 --> 00:12:00.200 LLC's in the United States. I can just incorporate rate 229 00:12:00.240 --> 00:12:02.279 this with a different person's name on a different uh 230 00:12:02.639 --> 00:12:05.600 little identifier here, but keep the address the same, same building, 231 00:12:05.639 --> 00:12:08.360 same bank account, same postal address, all of us the same. 232 00:12:08.519 --> 00:12:10.080 But because the way the law is written, I'm allowed 233 00:12:10.120 --> 00:12:12.039 to bring my hundreds of millions of dollars in here 234 00:12:12.120 --> 00:12:13.639 and then I can go buy all the real estate 235 00:12:13.679 --> 00:12:15.720 down in this very expensive area in Mayfair in London, 236 00:12:15.759 --> 00:12:17.919 which they do. They actually just bought a house. Uh 237 00:12:18.039 --> 00:12:23.159 Moshtebah from his coma bought a huge mansion across the 238 00:12:23.159 --> 00:12:25.399 street from the Israeli embassy in London a couple of 239 00:12:25.440 --> 00:12:27.639 months ago during the during the war, while the war 240 00:12:27.720 --> 00:12:31.159 was ongoing, you know. So it's like they see these laws, 241 00:12:31.279 --> 00:12:33.480 we wrote these laws, they know how to avoid them, 242 00:12:33.519 --> 00:12:35.240 and it's like anyone who's wanting to get something done, 243 00:12:35.240 --> 00:12:36.279 they're going to look at it and be like, how 244 00:12:36.279 --> 00:12:39.000 do I go over, around, under, or through this obstacle, 245 00:12:39.679 --> 00:12:41.799 just like any survivor would. And I think it would 246 00:12:41.840 --> 00:12:43.200 be a mistake for us to think they would look 247 00:12:43.200 --> 00:12:44.759 at that and be like, oh, I'm not allowed to 248 00:12:44.759 --> 00:12:45.039 do it. 249 00:12:45.600 --> 00:12:47.120 No, of course they're going to find a way to 250 00:12:47.159 --> 00:12:47.360 do it. 251 00:12:48.919 --> 00:12:52.720 How do you even know that it is public? 252 00:12:52.759 --> 00:12:53.279 Yeah? 253 00:12:53.440 --> 00:12:55.440 Oh wow, we see. 254 00:12:56.279 --> 00:12:58.480 The laws in the city of London are totally different. 255 00:12:58.519 --> 00:13:00.399 Well, you got a ton of Russian money too in 256 00:13:00.440 --> 00:13:01.080 London too. 257 00:13:01.399 --> 00:13:01.639 Yeah. 258 00:13:01.679 --> 00:13:03.879 London's a great target because they left the European Union. 259 00:13:03.919 --> 00:13:05.159 So a lot of the rules in the EU that 260 00:13:05.200 --> 00:13:06.960 prevented a lot of this activity do not apply in 261 00:13:07.000 --> 00:13:08.960 the UK, or at least they apply loosely. 262 00:13:10.919 --> 00:13:13.679 Hey guys, I'm Jack Murphy here at the team house, 263 00:13:13.879 --> 00:13:15.879 and today I want to tell you about the sponsor 264 00:13:15.919 --> 00:13:16.759 for tonight's show. 265 00:13:17.000 --> 00:13:17.600 Mars Men. 266 00:13:19.039 --> 00:13:22.080 This is a natural testosterone support supplement. 267 00:13:22.639 --> 00:13:23.159 I take it. 268 00:13:23.200 --> 00:13:25.399 I've been taking it for about the last five weeks now, 269 00:13:25.480 --> 00:13:28.360 and I'm starting to notice a difference. 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Thank you everyone. 293 00:14:45.080 --> 00:14:47.120 Well, they could change the rules. 294 00:14:48.080 --> 00:14:48.879 Yeah, it's one of. 295 00:14:48.840 --> 00:14:52.720 The other problems with sanctions against Iran that you know, 296 00:14:52.759 --> 00:14:55.279 we've had various levels of sanctions in place against the 297 00:14:55.360 --> 00:14:58.679 Iranian since the nineteen eighties, and that I mean, I 298 00:14:58.720 --> 00:15:01.799 feel like we really tried to isolate Oran from the 299 00:15:01.799 --> 00:15:06.000 international economy to the extent that we were able to previously. 300 00:15:06.120 --> 00:15:07.919 I mean, that's not what we do with everybody. You know, 301 00:15:07.919 --> 00:15:12.559 We've done that with Venezuela, Cuba, like everybody except China, 302 00:15:12.600 --> 00:15:14.240 like we really like them for some reason. 303 00:15:14.279 --> 00:15:17.679 But well, if you follow Meerscheimer's theory of international relations, 304 00:15:17.679 --> 00:15:19.240 which I know, do you love Meersheimer? 305 00:15:20.279 --> 00:15:22.159 I used to like meher Scheimer a lot. I think 306 00:15:22.159 --> 00:15:23.559 he's lost his fucking mind as. 307 00:15:23.440 --> 00:15:24.519 Of went off the rails. 308 00:15:24.879 --> 00:15:27.000 But the concept is basically like, Okay, you've got this 309 00:15:27.080 --> 00:15:28.879 concert of nations and they all have their own interests. 310 00:15:28.879 --> 00:15:31.039 There are these black boxes interacting with each other, all 311 00:15:31.080 --> 00:15:33.440 out for their own interests, and if you isolate some 312 00:15:33.600 --> 00:15:36.639 of them, even for different reasons, they're going to seek each. 313 00:15:36.480 --> 00:15:37.919 Other out for support. 314 00:15:38.000 --> 00:15:41.360 Yeah, because these these states need support, they need international trade, 315 00:15:41.399 --> 00:15:43.159 they need places to put their money, take their money, 316 00:15:43.240 --> 00:15:47.360 all the stuff. It's not crazy to think that Iran, Venezuela, China, 317 00:15:47.399 --> 00:15:50.240 North Korea would become friends in this context, and it 318 00:15:50.320 --> 00:15:51.600 is kind of what's happening. 319 00:15:51.519 --> 00:15:51.960 Of course. 320 00:15:52.159 --> 00:15:53.440 Yeah, I think that's a fact. 321 00:15:54.039 --> 00:15:56.279 Yeah, I mean we're seeing go ahead, misar. 322 00:15:56.879 --> 00:16:00.519 So one thing I've started to hear more of. Do 323 00:16:00.559 --> 00:16:03.960 you think aron would even accept anything close to the 324 00:16:04.039 --> 00:16:08.200 JCPOWA again, like could we say okay, okay, I don't either. 325 00:16:08.879 --> 00:16:12.919 No, And especially because Hassan Rahani was the chief negotiator 326 00:16:12.919 --> 00:16:14.440 for that, and we're not the chief negotiat, but he's 327 00:16:14.440 --> 00:16:16.919 heavily involved negotiations for that, he has a nuclear background, 328 00:16:17.480 --> 00:16:19.799 he was the president at the time. Afterward, you know, 329 00:16:19.840 --> 00:16:21.919 it's kind of this this moment of daytont where the 330 00:16:21.960 --> 00:16:23.919 Iranian government was kind of opening up a little bit, 331 00:16:24.000 --> 00:16:25.639 kind of like Glass Noost and the nineteen eighties with 332 00:16:25.639 --> 00:16:27.879 the Russians kind of thinking like, Okay, we need to 333 00:16:27.919 --> 00:16:29.639 be a little more global now. But as you can see, 334 00:16:29.639 --> 00:16:32.600 there's a massive backlash to that in the regime and 335 00:16:32.639 --> 00:16:34.840 they were like, no, that was wrong. Look what it 336 00:16:34.840 --> 00:16:37.120 did to us, It harmed us. We're never going back. 337 00:16:37.360 --> 00:16:39.840 And even now they talk about Rahani being a trader, 338 00:16:39.879 --> 00:16:42.000 they talk about Amani Najad being a trader, which is 339 00:16:42.039 --> 00:16:44.559 crazy because Amana Nijad has like died in the Wall 340 00:16:44.720 --> 00:16:48.919 Revolutionary Iran. So like to hear some of these folks 341 00:16:48.960 --> 00:16:50.879 say that, I mean, it just shows how opposed they 342 00:16:50.879 --> 00:16:53.240 would be going back to something like that, which again 343 00:16:53.279 --> 00:16:57.159 they said was heroic flexibility, sacrificing to even accept this 344 00:16:57.279 --> 00:16:58.919 deal in the first place. There was a lot of 345 00:16:59.200 --> 00:17:02.919 like humiliation and shame within the regime decision making body 346 00:17:03.000 --> 00:17:04.920 to accept that in twenty fifteen in the first place. 347 00:17:05.119 --> 00:17:07.519 And look where it got them, you know, especially after 348 00:17:07.599 --> 00:17:11.039 twenty seventeen and eighteen when we withdrew from JCPOA, took 349 00:17:11.079 --> 00:17:13.319 them out of Swift again, which was the banking system 350 00:17:13.359 --> 00:17:15.920 in the world, forced them into the shadow banking system 351 00:17:15.960 --> 00:17:18.920 even deeper, which then hurt us. You know, So they 352 00:17:19.000 --> 00:17:21.000 see that as like a big mistake and they won't 353 00:17:21.000 --> 00:17:24.519 go back to that, you. 354 00:17:24.559 --> 00:17:27.400 Know, I know that. They're like, obviously the IRGC is 355 00:17:27.440 --> 00:17:31.880 not a trustworthy organization, Like I know that, but they're 356 00:17:31.880 --> 00:17:38.680 obviously very cunning negotiators and just in general very crafty. 357 00:17:39.240 --> 00:17:43.799 Why would they ever trust anything we have to say 358 00:17:43.960 --> 00:17:46.920 at a negotiation table because the last one that was 359 00:17:46.960 --> 00:17:50.559 like a real negotiation that was you know, it was 360 00:17:50.839 --> 00:17:52.839 going over the weekend and set to start on Monday. 361 00:17:52.880 --> 00:17:56.759 We bombed Iran and smoked like, you know, their top 362 00:17:56.799 --> 00:17:58.079 tier leadership. 363 00:17:59.720 --> 00:18:04.359 Yeah yeah, and we had an mu that lasted how long, right, yeah, I. 364 00:18:04.279 --> 00:18:06.920 Mean forty eight hours or whatever it was. 365 00:18:07.000 --> 00:18:11.039 Short, it seems like Secretary of Rubio is getting more involved. 366 00:18:11.039 --> 00:18:14.039 I think that's a good thing. I think he's very experienced, 367 00:18:14.039 --> 00:18:19.400 and because whoever did the draft of that MoU that 368 00:18:19.440 --> 00:18:22.200 failed miserably, it was so vague that it was a 369 00:18:22.240 --> 00:18:25.079 waste of time, and it probably Tod's point. I think 370 00:18:25.640 --> 00:18:29.880 it's going to make actually solving this more difficult because 371 00:18:29.920 --> 00:18:32.880 now they don't even they don't and potentially we don't 372 00:18:33.680 --> 00:18:36.960 believe each other at all, even after written in signatories 373 00:18:37.039 --> 00:18:40.519 and signing it in France and all this other stuff. 374 00:18:40.559 --> 00:18:42.519 We're gonna have to We're gonna have to get the 375 00:18:42.519 --> 00:18:45.400 professionals involved in negotiations, so we're gonna have to actually 376 00:18:46.160 --> 00:18:49.599 stick to our agreement, or the whole negotiation process is 377 00:18:49.640 --> 00:18:53.799 going to be just considered window dressing, like both sides 378 00:18:53.839 --> 00:18:56.079 are doing it because it doesn't commit him to anything, 379 00:18:56.519 --> 00:18:58.160 and the rest of the world's eventually going to figure 380 00:18:58.160 --> 00:19:01.240 out it's it's simply not going to end. So whatever 381 00:19:01.680 --> 00:19:04.680 impact is going to have on the international energy markets 382 00:19:04.799 --> 00:19:07.359 or stock markets, it's just gonna have because they're going 383 00:19:07.400 --> 00:19:10.079 to stop listening to on the verge of negotiated settlement 384 00:19:10.640 --> 00:19:13.279 or we're on the verge for massive. I mean, they're 385 00:19:13.319 --> 00:19:17.759 just gonna say that's just like Charlie Brown's teacher talking 386 00:19:17.839 --> 00:19:21.480 right now. It's just not it's just noise. Because we 387 00:19:21.559 --> 00:19:23.160 get to the verge of all these things and then 388 00:19:23.839 --> 00:19:25.640 like I think right now, correct me if I'm wrong. 389 00:19:25.640 --> 00:19:28.559 But the last night checked was we were going to 390 00:19:28.640 --> 00:19:31.359 do massive escalation. We heard that he had approved it, 391 00:19:31.680 --> 00:19:34.599 and now we're not because there's some framework that's agreed to. 392 00:19:34.920 --> 00:19:37.200 Yeah, but we So I wanted to mention that because 393 00:19:37.240 --> 00:19:40.960 like that's part I missed in the beginning. We introduced 394 00:19:41.000 --> 00:19:44.039 that framework last minute. It wasn't a ran being like 395 00:19:44.119 --> 00:19:46.759 you know what, like let's talk so like this whole 396 00:19:46.759 --> 00:19:49.200 build up over the last week about this massive you know, 397 00:19:49.279 --> 00:19:53.240 bombardment or this campaign for two weeks frankly seemed like 398 00:19:53.279 --> 00:19:56.519 a bluff and like we it's it's not like it's 399 00:19:56.519 --> 00:19:58.119 the first time. A couple of weeks ago it was 400 00:19:58.160 --> 00:20:00.759 the same thing, like there was to talk about a 401 00:20:00.799 --> 00:20:03.359