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college football, Cougar Sports, what's going on in the college
football world? Springballs right around the corner, and so we're
gonna get into that. Obviously, expectations way to the early
expectations in the Big twelve and.
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at Odeon Men'swear, Odeon Menswear dot Com. All right, let's
welcome into the show. A man of metrics, a man
that delves into the data. College football inshider Dave Bartwo
of CFP Matrix, Dave bar two.
Speaker 3: How the heck are you.
Speaker 5: Insider? Well, the best I can tell stories with numbers
is about as close to the inside as I get.
Speaker 4: Now that all truth resides in the numbers, doesn't it.
Speaker 5: I got I got some new ones for you, though,
you know I got. I got some new ones for you.
So here's one, because it's combined day right, yes, combine
day and and and. Last month somebody from the New
York Times got a hold of me because they were
working with the NFL and they wanted to do a
big story about the speed era of the NFL and
the size how it's gone down and the speed has
gone up and it's not true. Huh, it's not true.
I was able to get the actually, just to verify everything.
Size wise, nothing's changed in the NFL. Guess what. They're
all still huge. They're not getting smaller, They're not anywhere.
But speed wise, I worked with Amazon next Gen and
got all the speed numbers for every game of every
player for the twenty twenty five season. The five fastest
NFL teams four didn't make the playoffs. Wow, okay, the
five slowest teams two made the playoffs, right, And to
me it goes back to with football, it's full body athleticism,
it's not you know, and we've tracked the draft. Teams
that focus on speed or teams that focus on on
one or two elite numbers fail in the draft. So
you know, and the same thing applies for college football
is you know, now, now granted, big size, big speed
to make a little bit more of a difference at
the collegiate level, but you are still looking for full
body athleticism. So when you're watching the combine, don't get
caught up on speed. Because the fastest teams had the
worst win loss ratio in the NFL of any five
groups based on speed and twenty twenty five.
Speaker 3: Isn't that?
Speaker 4: I mean you look at like Indiana winning the national
championship this year, like, not the biggest, not the fastest,
they're just the best football team.
Speaker 5: They're just the best football team. The other thing one
so along with that, in working with Kurt is the
focus on a sixteenth minute game. Okay, here's another one
inside the data that well might surprise people that are listening.
Pretty much everybody has heard of the middle eight, right,
That focus on the last four minutes of the second quarter,
first three minutes of the fourth quarter, and how it's
so first four minutes of the third how it's so
important in winning football games in college football. Over the
last ten years, there are eleven eight minute segments in
a college football game. It is the ninth most valuable.
Speaker 3: Wow, ninth really.
Speaker 5: So so yeah, So when you hear these coaches, oh, man,
we got to win the middle eight, which one the
first aid of the first quarter, the last date of
the first quarter. You know, it means nothing at the
collegiate level, and it' means only slightly more at the
NFL level. So when we'reing with Snetti, it was trying
to get people's minds wrapped around a sixty minute game.
Rather than focusing on little pieces at a time, you're
going more all out for the whole game. Speed doesn't
kill coaching kills with good talent, and you got to
focus on a game for sixty minutes, not particular areas
where they say, well, you're gonna win or lose a
game in this eight minutes. It's a sixty minute game.
You go for sixty minutes.
Speaker 4: I love it. That's a great breakdown. Yeah, combine season
is upon us. BYU has two invites to the NFL
comby We talk a lot about talent coming through BYU
and how talent is not always what they bring through
provo in order to have productivity and wins. But you
know what's the average? I guess what's the average? I
didn't prep you for this, but what would you say
is kind of the average individual? Like team invite, like
numbers of invites that you're getting from like a P
four institution.
Speaker 3: Typically and the set.
Speaker 4: I know the SEC has won out over the last
thirty years just because they've been buying players under the
table for so long now that everybody else can we're
going to see that number drop mark my words.
Speaker 3: But uh, what do you make of that?
Speaker 4: Like, who's uh you know what's the average? I know
BYU is probably hovering around one or two per year.
Speaker 5: Okay, Okay, three things off of everything you just said.
Number one, you are right, I am totally not prepared
for that out of left field. Okay, So but what
I want to say is, can we put a pin
in it? Because I have twenty five years of the
NFL Draft broken down by colleges by position, by NFL teams.
I would love to have a one or two segment,
you know, fifteen twenty thirty minutes with you breaking down
BYU buy the draft and success and lack thereof in
the NFL in the future.
Speaker 4: Okay, Okay, let's let's putin check on that.
Speaker 5: One, right. So, but but I have it, it's there,
and there's interesting discussions. As for the SEC I've also
found so this was interesting. As Georgia and Alabama started
winning national titles, they started getting overdrafted and so and
so and so. What was happening is gms and scouts
were drafting too many Bama and Georgia players, I believe
off of name recognition, but the starts per player. It
worked okay in the first, second, and third rounds, but
they were getting overdrafted in four, fifth, and sixth and
honestly underperforming. Really really a lot of misses in there,
and nobody talks about it because everybody's focused on that
first that first and second and third round. Guy. One
of the things that I've seen in the numbers is
teams that get hot in the media and the fans
will gravitate to them and overdraft the heck out of them.
So I'm curious how that relates to BYU being overdrafted
or underdrafted by position and how well the team has
been performing year over year.
Speaker 3: Yeah, what's interesting.
Speaker 4: I mean, at least you look at I don't know,
you take the modern ARA. Maybe in the last twenty years,
BAU has you know, I guess a decent amount of
draft picks. I'd say it's solid more NFL players currently
in the NFL, or more former players in the NFL
than they've had probably in.
Speaker 3: The last twenty years.
Speaker 4: Right now, Kalani has done a really good job of
developing and uh, and and this coaching staff has done
a good job of like forecasting in the and and
bringing them in obviously and and developing them.
Speaker 3: At a high level.
Speaker 4: But uh, you know it's instant undrafted free agents out
of BYU tend to stick a little bit better than others.
I think, I think that would be an interesting data point.
Speaker 3: I think they do.
Speaker 5: I think they stick starts. Yeah, and it may be
total starts in the NFL. This is gonna this is
gonna blow some people's minds. The last twenty year, okay,
last twenty years, total starts in the NFL thirteen percent
of them are from undrafted free agents. Wow, right, thirteen
percent are undrafted free agents. So I don't know the
numbers on BYU, but I would lean towards BYU having
a lot of success there because from a media standpoint,
it's not a media darling, right, that's not where guys
get drafted from, not from BYU. But there could be
a lot of hidden talent there and they're actually underdrafted.
So when we get back to BYU and the NFL draft, man,
I'm gonna come armed to the teeth and I'll be
able to answer all of that stuff in depth for you.
Speaker 4: I love it, man, Dave bar two CFB matrix here
on your Utah ESPN Radio network. Where have your eyes
whereas your gaze casted upon the analytics this offseason? What
have you been delving into SCFB matrix?
Speaker 5: Well, you know I did. I did the speed stuff
for the NFL in the New York Times, and I
did the middle eight. I've worked on fourth down numbers
for both the NFL and college football. I've worked on
going for two numbers NFL and college football. I'm out
usage in the NFL and college football. This one was
really interesting in that we are finding your more successful
coaches use up all their timeouts before three minutes left
in the first half. They control the game with timeouts
and control momentum better than anything else. The biggest thing
that we have found is that we found something stronger
than winning the turnover battle. Wow, and I am right now,
I am speaking to Kolani Sataki and every coach on
the BYU staff. Okay, it's in peer review right now,
But winning the turnover battle. In FBS football, you win
the turnover battle about eighty percent of the time. Seventy
four percent of the time you win the game. That
is all awesome, right, just winning the turnover battle. We
figured out a number for game control. Game control effects
nearly ninety percent of the games, and if you win
game control, you win eighty eight percent of all FBS games.
Speaker 3: So what is game What is game control? What is that?
Speaker 5: Ah? That's the thing. It's in peer review right now.
We're not there yet, okay, but when it comes out,
I promise you and every single person listening, it will
completely change the way you watch football and anticipate teams
winning and losing. It is incredible what it's going to
do in terms of how coaches, coach football, and how
people watch football love that.
Speaker 4: Yeah, look, you went into fourth downs right, fourth down play.
Kilani has been a very aggressive fourth down play caller.
Every time he goes for it on fourth down from
like midfield or even from his own forty I typically
post this large bull with massive cajones and just walking
around the field. I'm like, this is Kalate. He's just like,
I'm going fourth on fourth is what I do?
Speaker 3: Anyway? Uh, you know what what data did did you
find her? What? What?
Speaker 4: What were some of the conclusions from the fourth down
data that you were able to evaluate and analyze.
Speaker 5: Well, look, there's a couple of things there. No number
one and no particular order. Okay. Uh. First of all,
if it's fourth and fourth and four or more, you're
kind of out of your mind. The the the numbers
fall off so hard after fourth and three. This is
why going for two is really important. If going for
two was it the two yard line not three yard line?
The percentages change immensely in both leagues, NFL and college football.
But college football, if it's fourth and four or more,
you gotta be you got to be doing something desperate. Okay,
You're you're trying to change momentum, you're trying to stop something.
You know the game is in the balance if you're
if it's fourth and four or more in my opinion,
But you also have to look at it situationally. And
one of the things that we're trying to teach college
coaches is going forward on fourth down in September it
is absolutely blind. There's no book on it. Right, You
do not know how good or bad the BYU offense
or defense is till probably at least the end of September, right,
and the same thing with all of your opponents. So
what's important in going forward on fourth down is also
understanding what is your offensive strength what is the defense's strength.
So the stronger the defense run and pass game, the
lower your odds of converting. So you can't look at
these going for fourth down. And you know, fourth and
two against Utah is not the same as fourth and
two against Colorado or fourth and two against TCU because
the defenses are different and year over year your offense
is different. So we're trying to get coaches to look
at the moment more in terms of what you have
versus what you're facing, instead of looking at a book
and saying, well, this is what the average has been
for the last ten years. That's insanity looking at averages.
You got to look at situational football.
Speaker 4: Love that breakdown, Dave bar two CFB matrix here on
your Utah ESPN radio network.
Speaker 3: What are your way too early?
Speaker 4: Maybe prognostications on BAU football heading into twenty twenty six.
They're coming off in eleven and two, twelve and two
season they've overachieved. I'm beginning to think, you know, I
guess how would you diagnose who BYU football is? They
are winning more games versus their recruiting rankings. Maybe even
there the dollar amount allocated to them. Will give me
a little breakdown of BA football heading into twenty twenty six.
Speaker 5: Well, I know, let's let's I want to start with
one thing. The first thing is, and it's kind of
dovetails into your question, is outside of Kurt Signetti over
the last two or three years, has anybody else been
a better head coach, schedule, talent versus results than Klannie.
Speaker 3: I don't think so.
Speaker 5: I mean, nope, there isn't.
Speaker 3: There isn't.
Speaker 5: I'm answering to for you, baby, there isn't. He has
done an absolutely amazing job, completely under the radar, not
talked about, and I cannot give him enough credit for
overperforming and and and not just one season, multiple seasons
and adapting to the Big twelve this fast is one
of the best coaching jobs in the last ten years.
When you talk about twenty four plus games, absolutely amazing. Now,
what to expect, B why you coming in? I know
the fans want to expect to keep winning, right at
some point, at some point this double digit you know,
wins for years, got a break. But there seems to
be something with the player continuity edge that B WHYU
has the coaching continuity edge the BYU has had over
the last couple of years that somehow pushes them ahead
on a lot of close football games. And they've won
more than their share of close football games in the
last twenty four amazing run there. So it's the coaches
league in my opinion. I don't think the recruiting matters
as much in the Big twelve as it does in
other areas. And so now the question is, with the
loss of a couple of couple of year coaches, specifically
your defensive coordinator, how does that affect things going forward?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 4: Yeah, Well, I mean, I feel like I will say this.
It's a conversation we had earlier this week. There does
seem to be a trend when BYU is, you know,
winning two consecutive season to a high level double digit
wins right twenty one, there was a drop off in
twenty twenty two, gave with dead the eight and five
and then a five and seven.
Speaker 3: They're coming off eleven and two, twelve and two. Some
people think there's a little bit.
Speaker 4: Of a pride cycle, a little bit of a complacency
thing that happens. Win b who's winning at a high level.
Do you see that drop off occurring this next season?
There's a lot in the last two years, they've been
a lot of one score games.
Speaker 3: They bounced b Way's way.
Speaker 4: Will that happen in twenty twenty six, Yeah, it had
some one.
Speaker 5: Score with score games. But look at how well they
are their coaches. You know when I look at the numbers,
so you know me, I mean, I've been on your show,
enf I go to scoring efficiency. That's my number one
thing in offense and defensive scoring efficiency. And you look
at BYU in twenty twenty five, Okay, number forty in
raw offense, scoring efficiency number seventeen. In defense, when adjusted
for opponent, that forty goes to twenty four. So you
had the twenty fourth best offense, you have the twenty
seventh best defense overall in the entire country, twenty first
best offense plus defense total scoring efficiency. I mean it
was literally my comp to BYU coming in to this.
You look like on paper, you look like Michigan and Alabama.
That's what the numbers look like, right, So this is
still a even though it's winning close games, it's still
a really really good team. I don't think you can
compare the COVID year in which every team they played
they out recruited to the very next year. And I
still say the progression has been good because the last
two years outside of Signetti is one of the best
coaching jobs we have seen in all of college football.
So my big question mark is at defensive coordinator. I
don't know what Kelly's going to do because Kelly's never
done it. We got no numbers on him, he's never
called the playing you know, So I think all we
can do is probably what every BYU fan is doing,
is going well. Colonne's gotten this right an awful lot
since he's been here. He coaches way above talent year
after year after year. His bad years are still average
and his good years are great above talent. I think,
to me, the worst case scenario is you got to
be at guessing or to me, throwing a dart at
whatever the line Vegas comes out for your total wins.
I think that's the floor. He's exceeded it just about
every year, So why stop betting against that?
Speaker 3: Now? Love it?
Speaker 4: Great breakdown CFP Matrix. Who's very owned Dave bart to Dave.
Best way to support you, what you do, how you
do it for all of our listeners. I appreciate you
hopping off for little college football segment.
Speaker 5: Just hit me on Twitter. Everything's open there. You can
find me at see if be Matrix And if you
got a text, you got a question, you got a comment,
you got an idea, text me. Here's my phone number,
ninety seven to one two one seven eighty four nineteen.
I promise at some point I will get back to you.
I appreciate everybody that reaches out.
Speaker 4: Love that man, always a blessing, always a pleasure, talking
ball with you, talking numbers with you.
Speaker 3: Thanks for hopping on.
Speaker 5: Dave anytime, buddy, they go, that's Dave bar.
Speaker 3: Two ladies and gentlemen.
Speaker 4: Boys and girls appreciate him hopping on to talk to
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