1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:01,439 Speaker 1: By Utah citizens for the Constitution. 2 00:00:01,639 --> 00:00:04,679 Speaker 2: You're two to Cougar Sports on ko v O probo 3 00:00:04,879 --> 00:00:07,599 k U D d HD two one oh three nine 4 00:00:07,639 --> 00:00:12,640 at ninety eight three ESPN the Fan. It's time to 5 00:00:12,720 --> 00:00:16,320 celebrate the greatest team sport known to man, where modern 6 00:00:16,399 --> 00:00:18,239 day gladiators collide. 7 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:19,399 Speaker 3: For all the glory on the grid. 8 00:00:19,519 --> 00:00:23,039 Speaker 2: Ie, let's talk some college football on Cougar Sports with 9 00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:23,879 Ben Crittle. 10 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:28,559 Speaker 4: Welcome back Cougar Sports, one of Green nine ninety point 11 00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:31,000 three ESPING the Fan. I'm at portal broadcasting from our 12 00:00:31,039 --> 00:00:33,759 vander Rold Studios Vanderwelt dot Com. Get on that free 13 00:00:33,799 --> 00:00:35,560 Q and A no obligation doing vest Q and A 14 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:38,280 with our tax sport Wealth Advisors, Certified Financial Blanders. Nobody 15 00:00:38,359 --> 00:00:40,359 does it better than Bander Wealth at these time. But look, 16 00:00:40,399 --> 00:00:42,359 college football, Cougar Sports, what's going on in the college 17 00:00:42,359 --> 00:00:45,479 football world? Springballs right around the corner, and so we're 18 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:48,560 gonna get into that. Obviously, expectations way to the early 19 00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:51,520 expectations in the Big twelve and. 20 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:53,079 Speaker 3: For b y u H. 21 00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 4: What's the latest in the college football world though, We're 22 00:00:56,640 --> 00:00:58,799 going to delve into it and more here on your 23 00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:01,240 Utah ESPN Radio Network. It's going to be brought to 24 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:03,759 you by Odeon Men's where Odeon Menswear dot Com. 25 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:05,480 Speaker 3: Check out the new elevatesuit. 26 00:01:05,599 --> 00:01:08,760 Speaker 4: It's a sports performance at leisure shuit that provides great 27 00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:10,799 range of motion, but it looks like a traditional suit. 28 00:01:10,799 --> 00:01:13,680 I can, I can heini, I can butt kick, I 29 00:01:13,719 --> 00:01:16,280 can carryoka, I can deep squad, I can do lunges 30 00:01:16,640 --> 00:01:18,879 like awkward lunges, you know what I mean, like Nacho 31 00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:21,359 Librey type of lunges. The stretching pants, that's how I 32 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:23,400 feel in them. It's fantastic and it looks like a 33 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:25,799 traditional suit. I don't want to take my shuit off 34 00:01:25,840 --> 00:01:28,760 after church because it's so dann coomfortable. You can be 35 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:31,799 comfortable as well at church at with the Elevated suit. 36 00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:33,560 You can get fifteen percent off when you mentioned myself 37 00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:36,079 for esping the fan Crital fifteen, Crital fifteen, Crital fifteen 38 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:39,519 online or in store. Check out all of their gear 39 00:01:39,640 --> 00:01:43,280 though all of their attire men's wear, churchwear, missionary attire 40 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:46,640 at Odeon Men'swear, Odeon Menswear dot Com. All right, let's 41 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:49,400 welcome into the show. A man of metrics, a man 42 00:01:49,439 --> 00:01:53,840 that delves into the data. College football inshider Dave Bartwo 43 00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:55,560 of CFP Matrix, Dave bar two. 44 00:01:55,560 --> 00:01:56,239 Speaker 3: How the heck are you. 45 00:01:57,959 --> 00:02:02,519 Speaker 5: Insider? Well, the best I can tell stories with numbers 46 00:02:02,599 --> 00:02:04,680 is about as close to the inside as I get. 47 00:02:04,719 --> 00:02:09,759 Speaker 4: Now that all truth resides in the numbers, doesn't it. 48 00:02:10,439 --> 00:02:12,560 Speaker 5: I got I got some new ones for you, though, 49 00:02:13,639 --> 00:02:16,560 you know I got. I got some new ones for you. 50 00:02:16,199 --> 00:02:20,680 So here's one, because it's combined day right, yes, combine 51 00:02:20,759 --> 00:02:24,400 day and and and. Last month somebody from the New 52 00:02:24,479 --> 00:02:25,919 York Times got a hold of me because they were 53 00:02:25,919 --> 00:02:27,879 working with the NFL and they wanted to do a 54 00:02:27,879 --> 00:02:33,400 big story about the speed era of the NFL and 55 00:02:33,479 --> 00:02:36,039 the size how it's gone down and the speed has 56 00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:41,240 gone up and it's not true. Huh, it's not true. 57 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:46,680 I was able to get the actually, just to verify everything. 58 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:49,560 Size wise, nothing's changed in the NFL. Guess what. They're 59 00:02:49,599 --> 00:02:52,960 all still huge. They're not getting smaller, They're not anywhere. 60 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:57,879 But speed wise, I worked with Amazon next Gen and 61 00:02:57,960 --> 00:02:59,960 got all the speed numbers for every game of every 62 00:03:00,159 --> 00:03:05,000 player for the twenty twenty five season. The five fastest 63 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:12,240 NFL teams four didn't make the playoffs. Wow, okay, the 64 00:03:12,319 --> 00:03:18,159 five slowest teams two made the playoffs, right, And to 65 00:03:18,159 --> 00:03:22,840 me it goes back to with football, it's full body athleticism, 66 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:27,039 it's not you know, and we've tracked the draft. Teams 67 00:03:27,039 --> 00:03:29,759 that focus on speed or teams that focus on on 68 00:03:29,759 --> 00:03:33,520 one or two elite numbers fail in the draft. So 69 00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:36,520 you know, and the same thing applies for college football 70 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:40,319 is you know, now, now granted, big size, big speed 71 00:03:40,319 --> 00:03:41,879 to make a little bit more of a difference at 72 00:03:41,879 --> 00:03:45,159 the collegiate level, but you are still looking for full 73 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:49,960 body athleticism. So when you're watching the combine, don't get 74 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:53,639 caught up on speed. Because the fastest teams had the 75 00:03:53,680 --> 00:03:58,080 worst win loss ratio in the NFL of any five 76 00:03:58,159 --> 00:04:00,719 groups based on speed and twenty twenty five. 77 00:04:01,199 --> 00:04:01,599 Speaker 3: Isn't that? 78 00:04:01,719 --> 00:04:03,879 Speaker 4: I mean you look at like Indiana winning the national 79 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:07,000 championship this year, like, not the biggest, not the fastest, 80 00:04:07,159 --> 00:04:08,520 they're just the best football team. 81 00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:12,639 Speaker 5: They're just the best football team. The other thing one 82 00:04:12,759 --> 00:04:16,879 so along with that, in working with Kurt is the 83 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:20,800 focus on a sixteenth minute game. Okay, here's another one 84 00:04:20,879 --> 00:04:23,720 inside the data that well might surprise people that are listening. 85 00:04:23,959 --> 00:04:26,839 Pretty much everybody has heard of the middle eight, right, 86 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:29,879 That focus on the last four minutes of the second quarter, 87 00:04:29,959 --> 00:04:31,839 first three minutes of the fourth quarter, and how it's 88 00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:34,120 so first four minutes of the third how it's so 89 00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:38,319 important in winning football games in college football. Over the 90 00:04:38,399 --> 00:04:42,000 last ten years, there are eleven eight minute segments in 91 00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:44,560 a college football game. It is the ninth most valuable. 92 00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:47,279 Speaker 3: Wow, ninth really. 93 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:49,480 Speaker 5: So so yeah, So when you hear these coaches, oh, man, 94 00:04:49,519 --> 00:04:52,279 we got to win the middle eight, which one the 95 00:04:52,279 --> 00:04:54,680 first aid of the first quarter, the last date of 96 00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:58,240 the first quarter. You know, it means nothing at the 97 00:04:58,279 --> 00:05:02,480 collegiate level, and it' means only slightly more at the 98 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:06,240 NFL level. So when we'reing with Snetti, it was trying 99 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:09,920 to get people's minds wrapped around a sixty minute game. 100 00:05:10,519 --> 00:05:13,800 Rather than focusing on little pieces at a time, you're 101 00:05:13,839 --> 00:05:17,160 going more all out for the whole game. Speed doesn't 102 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:21,240 kill coaching kills with good talent, and you got to 103 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:25,079 focus on a game for sixty minutes, not particular areas 104 00:05:25,079 --> 00:05:26,600 where they say, well, you're gonna win or lose a 105 00:05:26,639 --> 00:05:29,079 game in this eight minutes. It's a sixty minute game. 106 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:30,360 You go for sixty minutes. 107 00:05:31,920 --> 00:05:35,040 Speaker 4: I love it. That's a great breakdown. Yeah, combine season 108 00:05:35,160 --> 00:05:39,360 is upon us. BYU has two invites to the NFL 109 00:05:39,399 --> 00:05:42,360 comby We talk a lot about talent coming through BYU 110 00:05:42,800 --> 00:05:46,560 and how talent is not always what they bring through 111 00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:51,879 provo in order to have productivity and wins. But you 112 00:05:51,920 --> 00:05:56,319 know what's the average? I guess what's the average? I 113 00:05:56,319 --> 00:05:57,959 didn't prep you for this, but what would you say 114 00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:03,279 is kind of the average individual? Like team invite, like 115 00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:05,399 numbers of invites that you're getting from like a P 116 00:06:05,519 --> 00:06:07,040 four institution. 117 00:06:06,639 --> 00:06:08,720 Speaker 3: Typically and the set. 118 00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:11,680 Speaker 4: I know the SEC has won out over the last 119 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:14,240 thirty years just because they've been buying players under the 120 00:06:14,279 --> 00:06:17,439 table for so long now that everybody else can we're 121 00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:19,959 going to see that number drop mark my words. 122 00:06:20,319 --> 00:06:22,920 Speaker 3: But uh, what do you make of that? 123 00:06:23,199 --> 00:06:26,560 Speaker 4: Like, who's uh you know what's the average? I know 124 00:06:26,600 --> 00:06:30,120 BYU is probably hovering around one or two per year. 125 00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:33,759 Speaker 5: Okay, Okay, three things off of everything you just said. 126 00:06:34,079 --> 00:06:36,839 Number one, you are right, I am totally not prepared 127 00:06:36,879 --> 00:06:40,800 for that out of left field. Okay, So but what 128 00:06:40,839 --> 00:06:43,399 I want to say is, can we put a pin 129 00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:46,160 in it? Because I have twenty five years of the 130 00:06:46,319 --> 00:06:51,480 NFL Draft broken down by colleges by position, by NFL teams. 131 00:06:51,600 --> 00:06:54,639 I would love to have a one or two segment, 132 00:06:54,879 --> 00:06:58,480 you know, fifteen twenty thirty minutes with you breaking down 133 00:06:58,600 --> 00:07:02,360 BYU buy the draft and success and lack thereof in 134 00:07:02,399 --> 00:07:03,600 the NFL in the future. 135 00:07:03,759 --> 00:07:08,439 Speaker 4: Okay, Okay, let's let's putin check on that. 136 00:07:08,319 --> 00:07:11,639 Speaker 5: One, right. So, but but I have it, it's there, 137 00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:15,920 and there's interesting discussions. As for the SEC I've also 138 00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:20,800 found so this was interesting. As Georgia and Alabama started 139 00:07:20,839 --> 00:07:25,800 winning national titles, they started getting overdrafted and so and 140 00:07:25,839 --> 00:07:29,040 so and so. What was happening is gms and scouts 141 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:33,199 were drafting too many Bama and Georgia players, I believe 142 00:07:33,759 --> 00:07:37,959 off of name recognition, but the starts per player. It 143 00:07:38,279 --> 00:07:40,879 worked okay in the first, second, and third rounds, but 144 00:07:40,959 --> 00:07:43,680 they were getting overdrafted in four, fifth, and sixth and 145 00:07:43,759 --> 00:07:47,560 honestly underperforming. Really really a lot of misses in there, 146 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:50,800 and nobody talks about it because everybody's focused on that 147 00:07:50,879 --> 00:07:54,120 first that first and second and third round. Guy. One 148 00:07:54,199 --> 00:07:56,120 of the things that I've seen in the numbers is 149 00:07:56,160 --> 00:07:59,000 teams that get hot in the media and the fans 150 00:08:00,279 --> 00:08:03,639 will gravitate to them and overdraft the heck out of them. 151 00:08:03,639 --> 00:08:07,360 So I'm curious how that relates to BYU being overdrafted 152 00:08:07,439 --> 00:08:10,439 or underdrafted by position and how well the team has 153 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:11,720 been performing year over year. 154 00:08:12,079 --> 00:08:12,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, what's interesting. 155 00:08:13,079 --> 00:08:14,800 Speaker 4: I mean, at least you look at I don't know, 156 00:08:14,879 --> 00:08:17,120 you take the modern ARA. Maybe in the last twenty years, 157 00:08:17,199 --> 00:08:20,079 BAU has you know, I guess a decent amount of 158 00:08:20,120 --> 00:08:23,639 draft picks. I'd say it's solid more NFL players currently 159 00:08:23,639 --> 00:08:27,199 in the NFL, or more former players in the NFL 160 00:08:27,480 --> 00:08:28,920 than they've had probably in. 161 00:08:28,839 --> 00:08:29,959 Speaker 3: The last twenty years. 162 00:08:30,319 --> 00:08:32,120 Speaker 4: Right now, Kalani has done a really good job of 163 00:08:32,159 --> 00:08:35,240 developing and uh, and and this coaching staff has done 164 00:08:35,240 --> 00:08:38,000 a good job of like forecasting in the and and 165 00:08:38,200 --> 00:08:41,200 bringing them in obviously and and developing them. 166 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:41,759 Speaker 3: At a high level. 167 00:08:41,759 --> 00:08:45,440 Speaker 4: But uh, you know it's instant undrafted free agents out 168 00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:48,039 of BYU tend to stick a little bit better than others. 169 00:08:48,039 --> 00:08:50,840 I think, I think that would be an interesting data point. 170 00:08:50,919 --> 00:08:51,399 Speaker 3: I think they do. 171 00:08:51,559 --> 00:08:54,679 Speaker 5: I think they stick starts. Yeah, and it may be 172 00:08:55,039 --> 00:08:57,240 total starts in the NFL. This is gonna this is 173 00:08:57,240 --> 00:09:01,559 gonna blow some people's minds. The last twenty year, okay, 174 00:09:01,759 --> 00:09:05,240 last twenty years, total starts in the NFL thirteen percent 175 00:09:05,279 --> 00:09:10,320 of them are from undrafted free agents. Wow, right, thirteen 176 00:09:10,799 --> 00:09:15,000 percent are undrafted free agents. So I don't know the 177 00:09:15,080 --> 00:09:20,360 numbers on BYU, but I would lean towards BYU having 178 00:09:20,399 --> 00:09:23,320 a lot of success there because from a media standpoint, 179 00:09:23,600 --> 00:09:25,639 it's not a media darling, right, that's not where guys 180 00:09:25,639 --> 00:09:28,639 get drafted from, not from BYU. But there could be 181 00:09:28,679 --> 00:09:32,000 a lot of hidden talent there and they're actually underdrafted. 182 00:09:32,039 --> 00:09:35,039 So when we get back to BYU and the NFL draft, man, 183 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:36,759 I'm gonna come armed to the teeth and I'll be 184 00:09:36,799 --> 00:09:39,200 able to answer all of that stuff in depth for you. 185 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:43,080 Speaker 4: I love it, man, Dave bar two CFB matrix here 186 00:09:43,120 --> 00:09:45,759 on your Utah ESPN Radio network. Where have your eyes 187 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:51,120 whereas your gaze casted upon the analytics this offseason? What 188 00:09:51,159 --> 00:09:53,720 have you been delving into SCFB matrix? 189 00:09:54,279 --> 00:09:58,360 Speaker 5: Well, you know I did. I did the speed stuff 190 00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:00,440 for the NFL in the New York Times, and I 191 00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:04,360 did the middle eight. I've worked on fourth down numbers 192 00:10:04,919 --> 00:10:07,840 for both the NFL and college football. I've worked on 193 00:10:07,879 --> 00:10:12,320 going for two numbers NFL and college football. I'm out 194 00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:16,440 usage in the NFL and college football. This one was 195 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:21,759 really interesting in that we are finding your more successful 196 00:10:21,799 --> 00:10:24,960 coaches use up all their timeouts before three minutes left 197 00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:29,120 in the first half. They control the game with timeouts 198 00:10:29,279 --> 00:10:32,000 and control momentum better than anything else. The biggest thing 199 00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:35,279 that we have found is that we found something stronger 200 00:10:35,279 --> 00:10:40,279 than winning the turnover battle. Wow, and I am right now, 201 00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:44,759 I am speaking to Kolani Sataki and every coach on 202 00:10:44,799 --> 00:10:49,879 the BYU staff. Okay, it's in peer review right now, 203 00:10:50,399 --> 00:10:54,679 But winning the turnover battle. In FBS football, you win 204 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:57,639 the turnover battle about eighty percent of the time. Seventy 205 00:10:57,679 --> 00:10:59,639 four percent of the time you win the game. That 206 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:02,720 is all awesome, right, just winning the turnover battle. We 207 00:11:02,879 --> 00:11:07,240 figured out a number for game control. Game control effects 208 00:11:07,279 --> 00:11:09,679 nearly ninety percent of the games, and if you win 209 00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:13,960 game control, you win eighty eight percent of all FBS games. 210 00:11:14,639 --> 00:11:16,960 Speaker 3: So what is game What is game control? What is that? 211 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:19,960 Speaker 5: Ah? That's the thing. It's in peer review right now. 212 00:11:20,080 --> 00:11:24,039 We're not there yet, okay, but when it comes out, 213 00:11:24,480 --> 00:11:28,759 I promise you and every single person listening, it will 214 00:11:28,799 --> 00:11:33,120 completely change the way you watch football and anticipate teams 215 00:11:33,159 --> 00:11:37,399 winning and losing. It is incredible what it's going to 216 00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:40,600 do in terms of how coaches, coach football, and how 217 00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:43,000 people watch football love that. 218 00:11:43,799 --> 00:11:47,600 Speaker 4: Yeah, look, you went into fourth downs right, fourth down play. 219 00:11:47,840 --> 00:11:52,080 Kilani has been a very aggressive fourth down play caller. 220 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:54,639 Every time he goes for it on fourth down from 221 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:58,879 like midfield or even from his own forty I typically 222 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:05,240 post this large bull with massive cajones and just walking 223 00:12:05,279 --> 00:12:07,399 around the field. I'm like, this is Kalate. He's just like, 224 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:09,080 I'm going fourth on fourth is what I do? 225 00:12:09,440 --> 00:12:12,279 Speaker 3: Anyway? Uh, you know what what data did did you 226 00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:13,080 find her? What? What? 227 00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:14,919 Speaker 4: What were some of the conclusions from the fourth down 228 00:12:14,960 --> 00:12:17,279 data that you were able to evaluate and analyze. 229 00:12:17,759 --> 00:12:21,120 Speaker 5: Well, look, there's a couple of things there. No number 230 00:12:21,120 --> 00:12:25,000 one and no particular order. Okay. Uh. First of all, 231 00:12:25,039 --> 00:12:28,360 if it's fourth and fourth and four or more, you're 232 00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:31,960 kind of out of your mind. The the the numbers 233 00:12:32,039 --> 00:12:36,559 fall off so hard after fourth and three. This is 234 00:12:36,559 --> 00:12:38,679 why going for two is really important. If going for 235 00:12:38,720 --> 00:12:41,639 two was it the two yard line not three yard line? 236 00:12:41,759 --> 00:12:46,600 The percentages change immensely in both leagues, NFL and college football. 237 00:12:46,919 --> 00:12:49,720 But college football, if it's fourth and four or more, 238 00:12:50,519 --> 00:12:53,799 you gotta be you got to be doing something desperate. Okay, 239 00:12:54,120 --> 00:12:57,360 You're you're trying to change momentum, you're trying to stop something. 240 00:12:57,759 --> 00:12:59,279 You know the game is in the balance if you're 241 00:12:59,279 --> 00:13:01,559 if it's fourth and four or more in my opinion, 242 00:13:01,879 --> 00:13:04,159 But you also have to look at it situationally. And 243 00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:06,159 one of the things that we're trying to teach college 244 00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:09,639 coaches is going forward on fourth down in September it 245 00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:13,159 is absolutely blind. There's no book on it. Right, You 246 00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:16,399 do not know how good or bad the BYU offense 247 00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:20,360 or defense is till probably at least the end of September, right, 248 00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:23,240 and the same thing with all of your opponents. So 249 00:13:23,399 --> 00:13:26,159 what's important in going forward on fourth down is also 250 00:13:26,360 --> 00:13:31,080 understanding what is your offensive strength what is the defense's strength. 251 00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:35,320 So the stronger the defense run and pass game, the 252 00:13:35,440 --> 00:13:38,600 lower your odds of converting. So you can't look at 253 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:40,799 these going for fourth down. And you know, fourth and 254 00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:44,080 two against Utah is not the same as fourth and 255 00:13:44,120 --> 00:13:47,960 two against Colorado or fourth and two against TCU because 256 00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:51,240 the defenses are different and year over year your offense 257 00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:54,240 is different. So we're trying to get coaches to look 258 00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:57,679 at the moment more in terms of what you have 259 00:13:57,879 --> 00:13:59,960 versus what you're facing, instead of looking at a book 260 00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:02,279 and saying, well, this is what the average has been 261 00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:05,559 for the last ten years. That's insanity looking at averages. 262 00:14:05,799 --> 00:14:07,559 You got to look at situational football. 263 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:11,639 Speaker 4: Love that breakdown, Dave bar two CFB matrix here on 264 00:14:11,679 --> 00:14:13,679 your Utah ESPN radio network. 265 00:14:15,360 --> 00:14:17,120 Speaker 3: What are your way too early? 266 00:14:17,320 --> 00:14:21,960 Speaker 4: Maybe prognostications on BAU football heading into twenty twenty six. 267 00:14:22,039 --> 00:14:25,240 They're coming off in eleven and two, twelve and two 268 00:14:25,360 --> 00:14:30,279 season they've overachieved. I'm beginning to think, you know, I 269 00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:34,799 guess how would you diagnose who BYU football is? They 270 00:14:35,039 --> 00:14:40,480 are winning more games versus their recruiting rankings. Maybe even 271 00:14:40,600 --> 00:14:43,039 there the dollar amount allocated to them. Will give me 272 00:14:43,039 --> 00:14:45,840 a little breakdown of BA football heading into twenty twenty six. 273 00:14:46,399 --> 00:14:49,279 Speaker 5: Well, I know, let's let's I want to start with 274 00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:52,639 one thing. The first thing is, and it's kind of 275 00:14:52,679 --> 00:14:56,600 dovetails into your question, is outside of Kurt Signetti over 276 00:14:56,639 --> 00:14:59,600 the last two or three years, has anybody else been 277 00:14:59,639 --> 00:15:05,399 a better head coach, schedule, talent versus results than Klannie. 278 00:15:06,360 --> 00:15:07,440 Speaker 3: I don't think so. 279 00:15:07,879 --> 00:15:09,399 Speaker 5: I mean, nope, there isn't. 280 00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:10,159 Speaker 3: There isn't. 281 00:15:10,159 --> 00:15:12,679 Speaker 5: I'm answering to for you, baby, there isn't. He has 282 00:15:12,759 --> 00:15:18,799 done an absolutely amazing job, completely under the radar, not 283 00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:24,600 talked about, and I cannot give him enough credit for 284 00:15:24,759 --> 00:15:29,679 overperforming and and and not just one season, multiple seasons 285 00:15:30,919 --> 00:15:33,960 and adapting to the Big twelve this fast is one 286 00:15:33,960 --> 00:15:36,080 of the best coaching jobs in the last ten years. 287 00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:40,440 When you talk about twenty four plus games, absolutely amazing. Now, 288 00:15:40,480 --> 00:15:45,320 what to expect, B why you coming in? I know 289 00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:47,399 the fans want to expect to keep winning, right at 290 00:15:47,440 --> 00:15:49,799 some point, at some point this double digit you know, 291 00:15:50,399 --> 00:15:55,639 wins for years, got a break. But there seems to 292 00:15:55,720 --> 00:15:59,559 be something with the player continuity edge that B WHYU 293 00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:04,240 has the coaching continuity edge the BYU has had over 294 00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:08,159 the last couple of years that somehow pushes them ahead 295 00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:11,399 on a lot of close football games. And they've won 296 00:16:11,919 --> 00:16:14,399 more than their share of close football games in the 297 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:19,200 last twenty four amazing run there. So it's the coaches 298 00:16:19,279 --> 00:16:22,840 league in my opinion. I don't think the recruiting matters 299 00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:25,399 as much in the Big twelve as it does in 300 00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:29,720 other areas. And so now the question is, with the 301 00:16:29,799 --> 00:16:33,759 loss of a couple of couple of year coaches, specifically 302 00:16:33,799 --> 00:16:37,720 your defensive coordinator, how does that affect things going forward? 303 00:16:38,799 --> 00:16:39,039 Speaker 2: Yeah? 304 00:16:39,679 --> 00:16:42,919 Speaker 4: Yeah, Well, I mean, I feel like I will say this. 305 00:16:43,279 --> 00:16:48,279 It's a conversation we had earlier this week. There does 306 00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:51,320 seem to be a trend when BYU is, you know, 307 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:55,480 winning two consecutive season to a high level double digit 308 00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:59,320 wins right twenty one, there was a drop off in 309 00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:01,440 twenty twenty two, gave with dead the eight and five 310 00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:02,600 and then a five and seven. 311 00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:04,480 Speaker 3: They're coming off eleven and two, twelve and two. Some 312 00:17:04,519 --> 00:17:05,559 people think there's a little bit. 313 00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:07,640 Speaker 4: Of a pride cycle, a little bit of a complacency 314 00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:10,160 thing that happens. Win b who's winning at a high level. 315 00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:13,519 Do you see that drop off occurring this next season? 316 00:17:13,519 --> 00:17:15,799 There's a lot in the last two years, they've been 317 00:17:15,799 --> 00:17:16,960 a lot of one score games. 318 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:18,319 Speaker 3: They bounced b Way's way. 319 00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:23,319 Speaker 4: Will that happen in twenty twenty six, Yeah, it had 320 00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:23,799 some one. 321 00:17:23,759 --> 00:17:26,559 Speaker 5: Score with score games. But look at how well they 322 00:17:26,319 --> 00:17:28,960 are their coaches. You know when I look at the numbers, 323 00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:31,079 so you know me, I mean, I've been on your show, 324 00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:33,960 enf I go to scoring efficiency. That's my number one 325 00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:38,119 thing in offense and defensive scoring efficiency. And you look 326 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:42,680 at BYU in twenty twenty five, Okay, number forty in 327 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:47,640 raw offense, scoring efficiency number seventeen. In defense, when adjusted 328 00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:51,440 for opponent, that forty goes to twenty four. So you 329 00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:53,920 had the twenty fourth best offense, you have the twenty 330 00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:58,440 seventh best defense overall in the entire country, twenty first 331 00:17:59,119 --> 00:18:04,359 best offense plus defense total scoring efficiency. I mean it 332 00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:09,000 was literally my comp to BYU coming in to this. 333 00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:12,599 You look like on paper, you look like Michigan and Alabama. 334 00:18:13,039 --> 00:18:15,000 That's what the numbers look like, right, So this is 335 00:18:15,359 --> 00:18:17,759 still a even though it's winning close games, it's still 336 00:18:17,799 --> 00:18:20,920 a really really good team. I don't think you can 337 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:24,400 compare the COVID year in which every team they played 338 00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:28,640 they out recruited to the very next year. And I 339 00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:31,720 still say the progression has been good because the last 340 00:18:31,759 --> 00:18:35,759 two years outside of Signetti is one of the best 341 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:38,759 coaching jobs we have seen in all of college football. 342 00:18:38,839 --> 00:18:43,279 So my big question mark is at defensive coordinator. I 343 00:18:43,319 --> 00:18:45,720 don't know what Kelly's going to do because Kelly's never 344 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:47,640 done it. We got no numbers on him, he's never 345 00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:50,559 called the playing you know, So I think all we 346 00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:53,440 can do is probably what every BYU fan is doing, 347 00:18:53,519 --> 00:18:56,839 is going well. Colonne's gotten this right an awful lot 348 00:18:56,920 --> 00:19:00,240 since he's been here. He coaches way above talent year 349 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:04,240 after year after year. His bad years are still average 350 00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:07,960 and his good years are great above talent. I think, 351 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:10,279 to me, the worst case scenario is you got to 352 00:19:10,319 --> 00:19:14,279 be at guessing or to me, throwing a dart at 353 00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:17,000 whatever the line Vegas comes out for your total wins. 354 00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:20,319 I think that's the floor. He's exceeded it just about 355 00:19:20,319 --> 00:19:22,559 every year, So why stop betting against that? 356 00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:24,079 Speaker 3: Now? Love it? 357 00:19:24,200 --> 00:19:28,559 Speaker 4: Great breakdown CFP Matrix. Who's very owned Dave bart to Dave. 358 00:19:28,799 --> 00:19:31,599 Best way to support you, what you do, how you 359 00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:33,400 do it for all of our listeners. I appreciate you 360 00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:35,000 hopping off for little college football segment. 361 00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:38,160 Speaker 5: Just hit me on Twitter. Everything's open there. You can 362 00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:39,759 find me at see if be Matrix And if you 363 00:19:39,799 --> 00:19:41,799 got a text, you got a question, you got a comment, 364 00:19:41,799 --> 00:19:44,359 you got an idea, text me. Here's my phone number, 365 00:19:44,440 --> 00:19:47,640 ninety seven to one two one seven eighty four nineteen. 366 00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:50,279 I promise at some point I will get back to you. 367 00:19:50,279 --> 00:19:51,920 I appreciate everybody that reaches out. 368 00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:55,839 Speaker 4: Love that man, always a blessing, always a pleasure, talking 369 00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:57,279 ball with you, talking numbers with you. 370 00:19:57,319 --> 00:19:58,039 Speaker 3: Thanks for hopping on. 371 00:19:58,039 --> 00:20:01,759 Speaker 5: Dave anytime, buddy, they go, that's Dave bar. 372 00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:02,680 Speaker 3: Two ladies and gentlemen. 373 00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:05,039 Speaker 4: Boys and girls appreciate him hopping on to talk to 374 00:20:05,039 --> 00:20:07,440 some college football. 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