Speaker 1: What are the details on this deal with Japan that
President Trump has said is a massive trade agreement with Japan.
It's never been done before.
Speaker 2: We'll talk about that.
Speaker 1: The Genius Act, Central Bank Digital currency Trump says not
ear his watch, and yet the investment in cyber currencies.
Speaker 2: We'll talk about that.
Speaker 1: And as John Fetterman just what's happening with him all
of a sudden he wants to protect her access to
cash and to using cash. We'll talk about all of
this with my friend and brother, Zach Abraham, Chief Investment's
Office or Bulwark Capital Managements. And of course, through the
great grace of God Almighty.
Speaker 3: But Todd Herman Show is one hundred percent disapproved by
big pharma technocrats in tyrone Cebrian ware from the high
mountains of Free America. Here's the Emerald City XI.
Speaker 2: Todd Herman.
Speaker 1: Today is the day the Lord has made in These
are the times to which God has decided we shall live.
Zach Abraham, chief Investment Officer Bowock Capital Management, joins me. Zach,
welcome back to the Todd Hermer Show.
Speaker 4: Good to be back, sir.
Speaker 2: This Genius Act.
Speaker 1: Can we start here because you and I have talked
a lot about cybercrons and bitcoin, et cetera. And what
I really want to get at is Trump's investing in
this genius Act, bring this into law, paving the way
for then states to lead the global digital currency revolution.
And I just have a question as we watch this together.
Speaker 5: This is which is a big scandal. If that were
a Republican it would really be a big scandal. But
it is one of the great scandals of our time.
Thank you very much, everybody.
Speaker 1: She set up safe digital currencies a reserve on this,
And I'm once again conflicted, Zach, because I support the
presidents in so many things, and I'm sorry with the
Trump coins and all the ease.
Speaker 2: With which this can be used to enrich people. I'm sorry.
Speaker 1: I'm not going to be freaked out, but I'm freaked out.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 6: I don't really know what else to say other than
the you should be I'm trying to like. So, I
think that the technology underlying a lot of this crypto
so blockchain technology. Yeah, I think it's revolutionary.
Speaker 4: I think it's a really big deal.
Speaker 6: I think it's going to take a lot of intermediaries,
meaning people that add no value in transactions but are
just in there collecting a toll. I think that they're
going to make the private trading or the trading of
private assets super seamless.
Speaker 4: I think it's I think it's a big deal.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 6: The issue that I have is that technology is getting
conflated with cryptocurrency as a whole.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 6: So when you look at the vast majority of cryptocurrency,
a lot of it's just a fiat currency without a
government or a military backing it, right, And so I'm
watching the fanfare and energy. The point of my statement is,
I don't think I've ever seen the US government and
I'm trying to think right now, so I don't step
on my step on my step my own foot here,
but I don't think I've ever seen a point where
this much fanfare, this much attention, and this many resources
was going in to a sector that was going to
repay us with so little value. Meaning I think blockchain
is going to be a big deal. Cryptocurrency isn't like.
Speaker 4: Is the value of it going to keep going up? Yeah?
Speaker 6: Probably because I think it's I think the biggest thing
fueling cryptocurrencies rise is is deficit spending by governments around
the country around the world, right, and the printing of
money and fiat so so I don't anticipate that stopping.
But cryptocurrency, the way that we see it, it's it's
a scammer's paradise. And and when you look at the
cryptocurrency as a whole, you know, I I I think
just as much value is going to get extracted over
time as the value is delivered in terms of the coin.
The coin's going up, and and you know, I've said before,
I think you can own bitcoin, maybe some ethereum.
Speaker 4: Those are really the only two that I would go at.
Speaker 6: And even those two, the whole thing is just really
odd to me, because again, I just I think there's
so much of this is just a product of printed money.
Because you have all the crypto people that are all
it's like a religion.
Speaker 4: It's like a cult.
Speaker 6: Right, But when you get down to it and you're like, Okay,
so you've been telling me now for almost fifteen years,
how great it's going to be. Okay, what what other
practical use cases are out there for the stuff?
Speaker 4: Right now?
Speaker 6: The answer is none. We're fifteen years into it. What
are these things being used as other than just betting?
Speaker 4: Right? Just their bets? That's that's all we're doing.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and so, but the Genius actors understand that there's
you know, these these companies that are now going to
be safe coins, and the government's going to invest in
these and but but they're going to invest with.
Speaker 6: What Here's another here's another issue. Here's another issue. So
when you look at the Genius Bill with the stable
coins and the way they're written, yeah, okay, So basically
when you hear a company say we're going to launch
a stable coin, they're that that means that they're effectively
becoming a bank, okay, without having to go through any
of the regulation, any of the oversight, any of the
other stuff.
Speaker 4: It's madness. This is nuts. It allows them.
Speaker 6: To hold customer deposits on their balance sheet in the
customer's name, and earn interest off of those balances.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 4: How was that not a bank.
Speaker 2: By name only?
Speaker 1: And this is why I join you in saying it's
a scammers paradise by name only.
Speaker 2: It's not a bank.
Speaker 6: Do you know how much do you know how much
fraud and grift is gonna I mean, you've already seen
a mountain of fraud and grift coming out of this.
Now that you've made it. The stable coin thing, the
fraud and grift is going to be unbelievable. Yeah, and
they'll be good actors, right, There'll be good guys in
there too that are doing the right thing and are
actually doing things that take the technology forward. But the
way this, I mean we were looking over the legislation,
I'm sitting there going, Okay, you've basically gave it given
every corporation the right to be a bank without any
of the regulation or oversight.
Speaker 4: It's crazy.
Speaker 1: I knew it was gonna get this way when I
saw the apple coin being promoted and the x coin,
and I just about gave in and bought some of
that stuff. And I told you I wasn't going to
go through the process of getting a stable coin and
then buying that stuff. And I do want to ask
you about Fetterman, And then we got to dig into this
trading im which Japan. This is actually a lot economically
this week to talk about. And I know you had, yeah,
I know you had your workshop this week and your
halftime free webinar, So I want to make sure we
get some of the highlights from that, at least what
you think are the highlights of what you talked about
and what your message.
Speaker 2: Was, So we'll get to that.
Speaker 1: There is a lot of scam, as you know, in
the medical worlds in this country, particularly in America. There
are scam supplement companies. There are good supplement companies. There
are scam medical people. There are good medical people. One
thing I want you to make sure that you understand
is when I talk about the stem cells from renewed
dot Healthcare in Mexico, they are distinctly different from any
kind of stem cells they do in America. So let
me just give you the technical phrase. In America they
allow minimally manipulated stem cells. And the way this is
manifesting is chiropractors and pain management people.
Speaker 2: They get what are called autographs.
Speaker 1: Frozen stem cells ship to them. Who were the sources
of the stem cells largely don't don't know what are
the quality of the stem cells. Don't know depends on
the provider, how long have they been frozen, don't know
how many steps in transit, don't know. In Mexico at
renew dot Healthcare, the umbilical cords are downstairs. They walk
downstairs from the hospital maybe five minutes into a world
class lab one step below a bio containment lab. They
examine the stem cells that reject any of them that
are not as reactive as they need or show any
signs of problems. They track the health of the mother
and the baby prior to, during and after birth, and
before they ever inject the stem cells and if you
they test them for potency again. And that's just the
very beginning. It is world's apart. If you're suffering from pain,
you're being told it's surgery, or just get used to
not walking. Things like that. Go to renew r E
n U e dot Healthcare, telling me a part of
the Todd Hermanshaw Families R E n U E dot Healthcare.
So John Fetterman is he plays an interesting game zach
where he is now calling out his party for being
so extreme an immigration, being so extreme against ice and
then to go and do the votes that he has
to do as a Democrat. But he and Kevin Kramer
are partman. Kramer from North Dakota have introduced a bill
that would make it what would I guess, emphasize that
we can use cash for anything, because I don't know
if you've ever seen a dollar bill, but it says
on it that it's good for all debts publican privates.
And that's the federal law. Now, ilwys love it. When
I'm on an airline, we don't take cash. I'm like, yeah,
But you see the bill here where it says this
is good for all debts publican private. The fact that
they're having to do this means that finally there's a
consciousness coming about that there are people beginning to wake
up to the fact that the end of cash is
sort of the end of freedom.
Speaker 2: What's your response in that.
Speaker 6: Yeah, they're going to you know, they're going to draw
in with the efficiencies, right, which is true?
Speaker 3: Right?
Speaker 7: Right?
Speaker 1: I have a credit card, the debit card that's all digital.
That's how they're going to draw us in. On your watch,
scan your eye. I know, I got my new iPhone.
I thought I was putting my credit card in for
app purchases. Turns out now I have Apple Wallet. I
don't want Apple Wallet. Won't let me get rid of it.
I can't, you know, I can't forget to disable. So
get all that, right, But it's it's now all of
a sudden, my my amex is in my phone.
Speaker 2: I don't want it in my phone.
Speaker 6: Yeah, so I kind of look at this, this this
move against cash, if you will, and I mean, and
I'm telling you nothing, you don't know.
Speaker 4: You've been talking about it for a while. This is
not new, right.
Speaker 6: I see this as sort of the monetary currency version
of what they've done to so many countries in Europe
by bringing in mass immigration this short period of time.
Meaning on the surface of it, it looks, you know,
nobody wants say anything because they don't want to be
called the racist.
Speaker 4: Well it's immigration. You know, these people are refugees.
Speaker 6: Okay, but what is that when you mass immigrate that
many people into a small country that quickly, yeah, you're destroying.
Speaker 4: The culture, they know.
Speaker 6: And and by saying you're destroying the culture doesn't mean
the people that you're bringing in are bad. It just
means that no culture can absorb that amount. But a
good buddy of mine from Greece, he was telling me
they were vacationing there this summer and they were walking
around downtown Athens and he goes, you know, my dad
grew up here. I spent summers here as a kid.
He goes, you walk down downtown Athens, all you see
is smallies, That's all it's there. Yeah, like smally shops,
smally restaurants in Greece. Right, So what they're doing against
cash is kind of the same version of that. We
can sit there and we can tell you all the
efficiencies you're going to gain, all the fraud it's going
to stop.
Speaker 4: But where does this move us? It moves us.
Speaker 6: It's another step along the path of and I don't
want to sound conspiratorial, but it's not conspiratorial. And if
you don't know what I mean, just go look up
the website in society, George Soros, Open society, right, no borders,
the end of sovereignty, all that kind of stuff.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 6: Well, in order to get rid of sovereignty, two big
steps along the way are culture and currency, right yep.
So because currency is a differentiator between cultures. Yeah, culture
is clearly a differentiator between cultures. So what you see
is you see this slow creep that looks uncorrelated, right, right,
But then you look at it and you go, wait
a second, hold on, hold on. So we know there's
a contingency in the world that has massive hooks into
the World Economic Forum, NATO, all this kind of stuff,
and we see these moves that correspond perfectly with the
goal and the aims of the open society yep, right,
And then we're told, oh, it has nothing to do
with that, yep, and you're like, okay, man, look if
it walks like a duck toox, like, right, it's a duck.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 4: So that's where we're at in the end of cash.
Speaker 6: I think if you don't have physical tender, if you
don't have physical currency, I think that that is an
assault on freedom.
Speaker 4: Because it is.
Speaker 6: Why should the government have purview in every single transaction
that I make?
Speaker 2: Right, and you don't.
Speaker 1: I think you don't own digital currency, right, you can't
possess it. I mean, you really don't own what you
can't possess. We don't know houses because of property tax.
But I mean you're there and you can kind of
prevent people from coming in. But what you said about
currency and culture together, those are very potent things. This
redistribution of people and this forcible mass redistribution to people.
People forget that when you import human beings, you import
their attitudes, you import their face, their expectations of government.
And chaos comes when you take a society and you
rush people in who do not want the existing things.
So look at Minnesota and what's happened there where it's
become Mini Somalia. You have people who call Samalia home
who may well be mayor of Minneapolis. This guy calls
Somalia his home, and he may well be the mayor
of Minneapolis, and he has identified white people as the problem.
He has admitted that his job is to bring the
Somali you know, to bring the Islamic faith into governance
and Sharia. And I mean, these are all things he's admitted,
and why wouldn't he that's who he.
Speaker 4: Is, so well, yeah, it's it's it's like that.
Speaker 6: It's like the human version of supersaturation, right, anybody that's
ever you know, you've seen the same thing happens culturally.
You supersaturate ground, yep, and it can't take any more water.
You put more water, and stand right that the same
thing happens in culture. When you're importing, over the space
of five years, the equivalent of twenty percent of a population. Yeah,
you're effectively attempting to rip down that culture from the inside.
And and again it's not it has nothing to do
with the people. And people are afraid to speak out
about this because it's racism.
Speaker 4: The culture could be really bad. Okay, I'm just saying.
Speaker 6: When you like, just via order of Dick Pat, just
move people in all of the sudden, right, No, that
you offer you allow no time for the soil.
Speaker 4: To absorb it.
Speaker 6: Yep, right, you offer no time for there to be
you know, for them to assimilate to the to the
culture that they're a part of.
Speaker 4: Yes, And so what do they do?
Speaker 6: They do the same thing if it if it happened
to us, right, what would happen if we were refugees
and they moved a bunch of us into Italy, right?
Speaker 4: Or or Spain? What would we do?
Speaker 6: We'd congregate together, We'd start having English speaking neighborhoods with
English restaurants, and we'd start changing the culture. And that's
it's it's a sad thing because once you lose a
culture like that, you don't get it back.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: And there's this stimilation and the civilization aspect. And this
is what I wanted to talk about in connection to currency.
So they get that, they destabilize. And another way to
look at this is you and I. If I don't drink,
but if you and I were to go out, let's
say on a day and we spent the day together
hanging out. If I had three beers across fifteen hours,
probably nothing's gonna happen to me because they don't drink.
If I had three beers in fifteen minutes, I'm going
to be a mess and it's going to be stabilize me.
So the presence of mass rushing people in the three
beers in three minutes, that destabilizes a culture. That adds
to the ability of the bosses of the world to control.
And they've come in and said, this is goodness, this
is humanitarianism, this benefits to society. Diversity is their strength. Well, okay,
until you force it upon people at the same time
as then they're taking our cash or wanting to take
it away from us. It's convenience, it's going to prevent fraud,
it's going to do all these things. But it destabilizes
in a very sneaky way where all of a sudden,
you don't own a thing, and people in Minneapolis they
no longer own their culture. That's gone, and then we
don't own cash. So it is something that we need
to look out.
Speaker 6: For and and it breaks my heart and bums me
out because my favorite part I love I love.
Speaker 4: Experiencing other cultures. I just love it.
Speaker 6: And I know I was down with you in Mexico
and you, you and I have similar ways of going
about doing it when I'm when I'm in somebody else's country,
I try to assimilate to you know, adhere to their
culture and adhere to their rules and.
Speaker 4: Tore part of what yeah, and to learn and to learn.
I want to see it through their eyes, not through
a tourists.
Speaker 6: And it and it and it and and there's that
underlying pernicious hatred too that you can kind of get
a feeling of. Because if you want to make a
one world government, and you know, for the listeners out
there really think about this, one of the only way
to make that feasible, the only way to make it
palatable to the electorate, is if you destroy culture.
Speaker 4: Yep, right, that's it's part and parcel.
Speaker 6: You need to destroy culture, you need to destroy currencies.
And those are two of the bedrocks that you'd have
to flip over in order to pull that off.
Speaker 4: And that's what they're doing.
Speaker 2: Say look at other casts now to come in and
solve it globally. So we'll talk about.
Speaker 1: This Global Agreement's not global. I guess it's between US
and Japan. It has global impact, probably President Trump's trade
deal here.
Speaker 2: At least it avoids a trade war.
Speaker 1: Now this is I don't know if you've seen this
sc I have to show it up to this camera
because Zach has to look through my laptop then I
can shift it.
Speaker 2: Can you see that at all? I don't know if
you can see that.
Speaker 4: That's the extortion blend.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, this is from bone Frog Bone Frog Coffee.
Extortion seventeen is one of the most infamous ops that
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that's what Tim can say and keep his agreement with
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Speaker 2: For life on subscription coffee. Bonefrog Coffee dot Com slash
Todd promo code Todd at checkout so Zach.
Speaker 1: President Trump, in very characteristically humble style, came out and
announced a minor trade deal with Japan, which he said
no one thought could get done. It's the biggest thing
in history, and it's from the automotive sector. This is
how CNN reported it. And you know they tell the
straight story on Trump because they made They are hardcore journalists.
The deal will see US importers pay fifteen percent reciprocal
tariffs on Japanese goods exported the United States. But importantly
for Japan, the fifteen percent rate will also extend automobiles
and car parts, putting it at an advantage over two
major vehicle exporters, which have faced twenty five percent levy
on automotive sectors exports since April. Japan will also invest
five hundred and fifty billion dollars into the United States,
Trump said, adding that the US will receive ninety percent
of the profits. The deal would create hundreds of thousands
of jobs. There's never there's never been anything like it.
Perhaps the most importantly, Japan will open their country to trade,
including cars and trucks, rice, and certain other agricultural projects
and other things. Japan will pay reciprocal tarifts the United
States to fifteen percent. The newsaw Japanese market hit a
one year high on Wednesday, with the surge in the
price of automaker shares, pushing the knee Kai to three
point seven percent higher. I guess on first blush, Okay,
this looks really good.
Speaker 2: And then there's the second blush.
Speaker 1: Aren't we trying to have American car manufacturers have an advantage?
Speaker 4: Yeah? So that's the most puzzling part about this.
Speaker 6: Is the way that they strugg Now, we got it
to be fairer.
Speaker 4: We got to see the way it filters out.
Speaker 6: Like I was telling you off screen, I you know,
being familiar with Trump in the way goes about doing something,
I will be shocked if there isn't some kind of
additional news that comes out regarding something that he's going to.
Speaker 4: Do for US auto manufacturers.
Speaker 6: But at first glance, it's it's a bit of a
head scratcher because what you've done. You because of the
trade deals that we've cut so cut so far, or
or the tariffs we've put on so far, US auto
manufacturers are paying pretty massive tariffs. Tariffs on steel and
and and things of that nature. So the Japanese automakers
are not paying that same tariff. So net net, when
you look after this trade deal as it sits right now,
Japanese automakers have a competitive advantage over US automakers here
in the US they did not have prior to this steal.
Speaker 4: Now, like I said.
Speaker 6: I I can't what it looks to me, like, hey, okay, yeah,
we see this part. What you don't know is coming
is this and that's going to even that out. I've
got to believe there's more to the story because I
don't see why Trump would cut a deal like this,
But as it sits right now, it's a bit of
a head scratcher.
Speaker 4: I gotta believe there's more coming well, And.
Speaker 1: I got to believe that if they're moving five hundred
and fifty billion dollars into the US, that's that's not
going to be Hey, here's some cash, and it's that
couldn't wouldn't create jobs. So if they're truly moving manufacturing
over here and they're beginning to use maybe US steel,
because it would make no stinking sense for US to
for them to have steel from another country come here
and they're using US steel and US labor, and then
Trump says we're getting ninety percent of the profits. I
don't know if I believe that, because one thing about
the Japanese business culture is they're pretty smart, right, But
maybe that's what Maybe it seems like this is now
made in the US because it's going to be at
this presence here. Maybe that's how they're kind of explaining
to themselves.
Speaker 4: Yeah, we were going.
Speaker 6: We were just kind of I was just sitting actually
in an office with a couple of my analysts, so
we were running through it and it leaves more truthfully
without jumping to conclusions. It's one of those things where
like like I was saying, where you're going, Okay, this
is a start. I've got to believe there's more coming
down the pipe because the way this is written right now,
it doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Now, maybe
what he's sitting there thinking is he's going to use that.
Maybe he'll make an announcement that he's going to use
fifteen the fifteen percent tariff or the revenue from the
tariff city gets off of this deal to help subsidize
I don't know, maybe help subsidize US automakers. Maybe there's
but there's got to be something like that, because the
way it's, like I said, the way it's structured right now,
the way it's structured right now, he just gave automobile
Japanese Automo Beial manufacturers a serious competitive advantage in this
in this space. And you know, you and I have
been pretty forthright.
Speaker 4: I think uh and and fair.
Speaker 6: I also think criticizing some of his moves, I think
that this is a little too early to be criticial.
Speaker 4: Just because I trust I want.
Speaker 6: One thing that I have complete confidence in is Trump's
desire to get manufacturing back here in the US and
to give US companies a fair shake.
Speaker 4: I don't question that at all.
Speaker 2: No, it's it's evident in him. He loves it.
Speaker 7: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and he's jazz by construction and stuff being made here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, dude, did you see him when he was in
the garbage truck?
Speaker 4: Oh? Love, Oh.
Speaker 1: I got to tell you. My sister in law reminded me,
and here I am going to give away another billion.
Speaker 2: Dollar business idea.
Speaker 1: I was talking to my sister in law the other
day and she reminded me of this idea had back
in the day of an adult Disneyland, not that type,
not to clean.
Speaker 2: Your filthy heads.
Speaker 1: So Alex is laughing, what was just saying? I just said, well, okay,
you you bit.
Speaker 3: So.
Speaker 1: I had this idea of well let me just let
me just say, okay, if you steal this, just name
it after me.
Speaker 2: I want to create a place.
Speaker 1: Where men who've never done it, or young kid young
men who've never done it, like rich guys, can come
to a state and they can start by driving let's say,
a forklift, and then a bobcat, and then a back
hoe and then an earth mover, and it would be
like they could graduate up to driving some of those massive,
big pieces of equipment, digging holes and filling them in
and stacking things up and taking things down, running jackhammers,
destroying big rocks. Dude, tell me that guys who grew
up in Silicon Valley doing this on a keyboard all
day and looking at screens and they've never you know,
touched earth or they've never had their hands, tell me
they wouldn't pay a premium to come and dig on.
Speaker 3: Some of that.
Speaker 6: I mean, people are paying to go to rage rooms,
you know, where you give them a sledgehammer and they
break stuff with it.
Speaker 4: Oh you know.
Speaker 6: If you could go there, like put some old cars
in there, let them pick up a car with one
of those things, drop it on.
Speaker 4: Something, dig a deal.
Speaker 6: Hey, here's the other thing too. If they have never
worked on machinery. Now, when you do it all day,
I mean, it gets old pretty quick. It's kind of
like mowing the lawn when you're a kid, Right, You're
all jacked up for the first couple passes and they're like, eh, right,
this is cool. But but it's fun. I mean it
really is. It's it's fun stuff. I mean, it's we
still have that little boy part of us in there
that wants to just dig a hole and see how
we can get it.
Speaker 4: Or we can drop the car.
Speaker 1: Hey, could I drop this is a bigger car, or
this is big truck. I'll drop it in this little car.
Or maybe I get the car to bounce.
Speaker 2: I love that.
Speaker 6: Or or we could drop a car on another car,
make like a squat squash car sandwich I mean think
about I mean yeah, and then and then at the
end of the day, the coup de gras is that
they bring out all of the heavy weapons systems and
let you just gun them down.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, right, that bonus. That's a bonus.
Speaker 4: Well yeah, you got to buy the vi P pass
for that. Christ No, that's yeah.
Speaker 1: Okay, So this is again someone's gonna steal this. Just
give me credit somewhere.
Speaker 2: I mean this. You have equipment.
Speaker 1: There's equipment by where we live that's been sitting out
in the field all year because they're prepping to do
something there. I'm like, guys, that doesn't need to be
a dead asset. There's guys who can I just drive it?
I just I just I just want to drive.
Speaker 4: The thing Herman spunhouse.
Speaker 6: Man, just shut it down to Herman Spunhouse and let
the adults play, let them have I love it.
Speaker 1: We need to update some employment numbers here in a seconds.
And then I want to go to Scott Bessent, who
said something that could be seen as scary and revolutionary
if you are a shiny shoe Republican. So we'll get
to that there is. It's not a scary movie or serious,
I should say. But man, if you're kind of a
soft soap Christian and you're not really into defending the faith,
and or you think you're defending it, or you will,
but you're maybe not.
Speaker 2: There is a new series.
Speaker 1: From Angel Studios called Testament, and what they've done is
they've taken the Book of Acts and they've transported it
into a time where there is a censorship culture and
there is.
Speaker 2: A culture of hatred of the truth.
Speaker 1: And they're taking the Biblical not characters, but actual human beings. James,
and they're taking Philip, and they're taking Paul of Core
and they're transporting him into this world where things are
much like ours. So you see them defend the faith.
They'ven't written Mary into this, which is cool. So they've
written this up in its Testaments and it is an
opportunity for us to say, will we stand for Jesus
Christ when the entire world stands against us, when our
lives are on the line. Now you can stream this
right now. You go to angel dot com slash Todd
become a Premium Angel Studio Guild member. Stream Testament right now.
And when you're a Premium member, you get two free
tickets to every Angel Studio theatrical release. Plus you get
to vote on the movies end series that they produce
and that they promote. And it's helping to change culture.
It's Angel dot com slash todd and it's called Testament.
Angel dot com slash todd. It's called Testament. So Zach,
this is this, this corrected numbers. Now, I don't want
to say that there was any political motivation behind this
at all, because why would there be. The Beuerau of
Label Statistics just this past week came out and said, hey,
you know got to a thing. We got to tell
you the numbers of jobs reported for the nine months
ending in December twenty twenty four was a little bit
overstated by about eight hundred thousand people. Just and if
you look at this chart that Alex has put up
on the screen, that is an impressive mistake eight hundred
thousand people. Do we have any way to stop relying
on the BLS statistics?
Speaker 2: Is there any way?
Speaker 1: I mean, you guys have analysts all over the place.
Do you guys get better data than the BLS? Because
I gotta believe big sophisticated investors who are looking at
headcounts in this country have better data than the BLS
that comes back wrong this far and this big, this
far in the future.
Speaker 4: It's a tough data set for a lot of different reasons.
Speaker 6: There's there's a lot of inputs in it, and and
the data that they're being fed is noisy. So there's
there is a part of it that is errant just
because that's the nature of the data. Now, the flip
side is when you go back through time and you
start analyzing all of the misses or all the all
the you know, going in there and revising all the revisions. Yes,
say they're like and don't quote me, but I want
to say it's something around the department in the neighborhood
of seventy five eighty percent if not slightly.
Speaker 4: Higher, that all of those revisions.
Speaker 6: Are downward, meaning there is a con like an overwhelming
percentage of time those miss quote unquote mistakes or misprints
over state jobs.
Speaker 4: So is there a way to look at it?
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean there's been many times where we've seen
job reports where we dig through the data and you go, Okay,
this job report looks way stronger. The last unemployment report
we had was a perfect a perfect example of this.
It came out ce NBC headlines all you saw strong
jobs report, strong jobs. Yeah, Well, you dig the underneath,
you dug underneath the data. The headline number look good,
but it looked good because something else and it'd be
too wonkish and confusing to get into it. But the
headline number looked good because something else fell out of
the data that was had that that was going to
get added back in in the next report. So so
what you knew what the report should have been is
jobs numbers underwhelm, but statistical chicanery makes this number look good.
Speaker 4: Right, that would have been That would have been the
true way to phrase it.
Speaker 6: But it to be fair to them, it is tough.
The data set is noisy, and and they're relying on
outside actors to feed them. Yeah, so right, bad data in,
bad data out.
Speaker 4: So there's a part of that where you kind of
give them a pass.
Speaker 6: The flip side is is that the number, like I said,
it's something like seventy five eighty percent of the time.
The revisions are always down and it might be higher
than that. I don't want to overstate it. I think
it's actually higher than that. It's like ninety percent of
the time, but let's just call it eighty. The revisions
are always to the downside.
Speaker 1: So let me tell you a sign of how sick
DC is. When I work there on the leadership team
at the RNC for that short cycle. The comms team
had a little they had a huddle cave outside of
the director's offices. The director of comms he had an
office window office, bottom floor facing a street, so kind
of prestige office in a way, it's not a third
level and big office. And he had kind of a
not a cave, but kind of a huddle area where
his team could sit around and they got around table.
And so I don't remember what day this was, there's
always a day with this happens. And I was in
my office, which was across the way, smaller office, just
the chief digital guy, and I heard this applause and
the comms team high fiving and laughing and celebrating. I thought, Wow,
did some Democrats step down? Did we win some piece
of big legislative battle. What's happened? Did we break a
fundraising record?
Speaker 2: You know what it was?
Speaker 1: It was the employment statistics in the country were way
way down.
Speaker 2: A bunch of people lost their jobs. Well that's cynical,
and they're celebrating. And I walked over there.
Speaker 1: I walked over and the comms director turned out to
be a really good dude, as mobbed up shiny shoe
as he is, good heart.
Speaker 2: I walked over. I looked at him. He goes, what's
this look like to you?
Speaker 1: So honestly, you're sick, he said, I'm just now seeing
this through the eyes of a guy who's never worked
in Washington, d C.
Speaker 2: This is sick. We're actually celebrating people losing their jobs.
This is sick. But that's the instinct back there, Zach,
And yeah, I care.
Speaker 4: Everything's political.
Speaker 2: Everything is political. Nothing is human.
Speaker 1: And that's why people like me weep in church pews
after leaving DC. So we'll get to this bescent thing here.
This is Scott Bissent and man, this must terrify some
of the shindy shoes have SEC Treasury talking like this
about the Federal Reserve, which, as you know, is made
up of angels and saints.
Speaker 7: Joe, I think that what we need to do is
examine the entire Federal Reserve institution and whether they have
been successful. I'm speaking actually, I'm going to be in
the building this evening. There is a regulatory conference that
begins tomorrow. I'm the note speaker tonight talking about regulation
the FED as well monitor deals with monetary policy, regulations,
financial stability, and again I think that we should think
has the organization succeeded in its mission?
Speaker 2: You know, if this.
Speaker 7: Were the FAA and we were having this many mistakes,
we would go back and look at why why has
this happened? I mean, look at the as you said
at the top of the at the top of this broadcast,
there were you know, there was fear mongoring over tariffs,
and thus far we have seen very little, if any inflation.
We've had great inflation numbers. So you know, I think
this idea of them not being able to break out
of a certain mindset. You know, all these PhDs over there,
I don't know what they do. I don't know what
they do. This is like universal basic income for academic economist.
Speaker 6: You're nodding, yeah, yeah. I mean you've heard me riff
on the FED before too, and there there's so this
is where I have been really hard on the FED.
And you'll see something around social media, ETF and the FED. Right.
I am in favor of ending the FED. I'm not
in favor of not having one.
Speaker 4: So and it's they again, listeners, stay with me here.
People are like Zach, you've begged on the FED.
Speaker 6: Yes, because I think the way the FED is currently composed,
and who they have. There's no practitioners on the FED, right,
meaning it literally Powell is and I actually think he's
done a pretty decent job. I think he's been better
than the last two FED heads, Yelling and Bernanky. But
he is as close to you as you get as
to a practitioner. The rest of these people, like Yellen.
Yellen's only seen the inside of a classroom. And the
problem is is that these classically trained economists, when when
they've only lived in academia, what economics has tried to
build itself up as another science?
Speaker 4: Yes, okay, but it's not. It's a pseudoscience, huh.
Speaker 6: And and it's a pseudoscience because you the reason it's
a pseudoscience is because economies are probably the most complex
systems on earth there, yeah, aside from our body. But
I mean, when you start looking at an economy, it's
pretty similar, honestly, because there are so many inputs and
so many outputs, and and you see butterfly effects all
over the place, right where a butterfly flaps his wings
over here, and all of a sudden, you gotta you know,
you gotta famine.
Speaker 4: You know, halfway across the world or whatever the case
may be.
Speaker 6: And so the other reason that economics has failed is
because they've tried to make it a science. Meaning human
behavior is such an integral part of the way economies function.
And when you want to digitize everything, when you want
to reduce everything down to a binary formula, yeah, right,
there's going to be a lot of nuance and a
lot of dynamism and a lot of different things that
you're just gonna miss.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 6: For instance, one of the things that the FED used
to do, and I think it was correct, was manage
investor expectations and manage investor sentiment. The FED doesn't even
attempt to do that anymore. When you're setting when you're
setting monetary policy, and you're just staring at data and
you don't even consider the environment, the mental frame, you know,
the frame of mind that the market is in. Right,
Is this a euphoric market? Is it a depressed market?
When you don't even consider those things, yep, the soft
side of economics, it is literally impossible for you to
come out with the right conclusion. And so I and
I don't think that there is a way to perfect
the science of economics. What I do think is the FOMC,
the Federal Open Market Committee, which dictates monetary policy. You
have to have practitioners in there. You have to have
people that have run funds, that have managed money, that
have done it on an international basis, because the way
we look at things is just very different. And when
you look at a when you look at an economy
that has become so interconnected with the with asset prices
and the equity markets, I think it is absurd that
you're setting monetary policy without experienced, knowledgeable and successful practitioners
as a part of that process. Yep, right, I mean
because literally what these people are doing, and I don't
think I don't think most people on the outside understand.
They've got these models that they have built, mathematical models,
and they get a piece of data. Now they all
know every one of their models has failed, right, so
once and once a model has failed once, it's useless,
right not to them, They're gonna make adjustments.
Speaker 4: They trust their models, baby, they trust them. So.
Speaker 6: But when you so, when all you're doing is you
get a new data point. Maybe it's an unemployment number,
maybe it's a maybe it's a survey, you know, maybe
it's a the producer price Index survey or whatever, and
you plug it into your formula and you look down
whatever your formula kicks out. They throw that around like
it's like it's gospel. Well, the rest of us look
around and we go, boy, you guys have reduced this
to a math equation. Why can't we do that anywhere
else in the economy.
Speaker 2: It's not just it's not just that.
Speaker 1: And because I think this is an example that maybe
people can understand, not that they can't understand yours.
Speaker 2: I think you explain that very well. But this is
super simple. They are theorists. They operate in the land
of theory.
Speaker 1: They think of things and then they write them down,
and the math is all elegant. In the math, there's
no one angry in the math, no one's worried. In
the math.
Speaker 2: There's no one saying, I actually don't like the color
of that new car.
Speaker 1: Well, this should sell really well, yeah, but that color
doesn't do it for me. And in the model, there's
no Oh, by the way, did you know that Apple
now is forcing you to have this health app on
your phone?
Speaker 4: Oh?
Speaker 1: I don't want that, right, So none of those things
exist in theory land. Theorists they very rarely live in
the world they create. I had to sing at Microsoft
once and a Windows guy I was at a meeting
and I didn't remember why I was there, but I
was sitting next to when I was doing some work
and he saw my computer.
Speaker 2: Goes, pardon me, I go, I goes, what what software
are using? I said Windows? He goes what version? I
go the latest? Wait worst your.
Speaker 1: Startup menu and like can I see that? And I
go like, hey, by the way, I'm Todd. Then he
introduced himself, I'm with the Windows team, Like why do
you have all these shortcuts down here? Like why don't
you have these? Do you know that our start button
has all these? Why have you drug those all down there?
He's passed like why are you saving You're not. We
didn't set this up for you to save documents to
your toolbar. Why are you saving documents in your toolbar?
Because then he quit access to them. But you could
put them in folders.
Speaker 2: Do you know that?
Speaker 1: And I said to him, I said, can I ss
your question? What do you use your computer for? He goes, well,
writing codes and emailing anything else?
Speaker 2: Spreadsheets? Do you present? No? Do you use PowerPoint?
Speaker 3: No?
Speaker 2: Do you do videos. No, do you host meetings?
Speaker 3: No?
Speaker 1: Do you have direct reports? No, I'm and I see
individual contributor, Zach. It blew his mind that someone was
using the products, and I love the way my computer
is set up.
Speaker 2: It actually anchored him.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 6: No, and to your point, another perfect example of how
you cannot model human behavior on an economic basis mathematically. Yeah,
years back, Star kissed the tuna company.
Speaker 4: Yeah, okay, they threw it.
Speaker 6: They threw a challenge out there to all their people
and said, or to all their customers, and said, help
us design a new can, okay for our tunic cans.
Speaker 4: No, this is campbells soup. Excuse me, is Campbell stoop?
It was Campbell soup.
Speaker 6: This is years ago, and put a little note on
the back of the can said, hey, so some kid
went with his dad and he designed a new can
for Campbell soup that was shaped more like a tunic can,
and it reduced the amount of tin that they needed
by like twenty or twenty five percent. Okay, and you
get the same content in there just by going from
being skinny and tall to flat and wide, and you
get the same content. You saved twenty five percent on
the amount of ten, nobody would buy it.
Speaker 4: Nobody would touch it.
Speaker 6: They they then discounted it, nobody would buy it.
Speaker 4: Okay.
Speaker 6: So when you when you're approaching this as an economist,
you never would have considered that outcome. You just sat
there and gone, Campbell's profit's going to go out by
this amount. People are going to buy more of.
Speaker 4: The soup because it's like, you're gonna do it because
you're not factoring in human behavior.
Speaker 3: Yep.
Speaker 6: And that that therein lies the issue, right. The other
thing is the other thing too, is that they because
of that, they don't see fires until they're already going.
Speaker 4: Right, we have a thing the FED. Well, there's a joke.
Speaker 6: The Federal Reserve are arsonists and firemen at the same time. Right,
they light the fire and then they show up a
week later when it's blazing out of control and want
to take credit for putting it out right, And and
that's why because they're making decisions.
Speaker 4: They're flying blind.
Speaker 2: Right, or they're they're flying whiteboard.
Speaker 4: Right. Yeah, that's probably the best way.
Speaker 1: They're flying whiteboard. So we'll close off with one. It's
a quick video that's gone pretty viral. I just want
you to grade this kid's approach because he's having an
economic discussion with what appears to be a liberal Beltway journalist,
and this has gotten huge views on social media. We
do that with Zachly Just a second, human behavior and economics.
Let me say this about human behavior. In economic you
probably do things by wrote I prefer to go to
my same gas station.
Speaker 2: I've noticed this about me.
Speaker 1: I will actually wait if my favorite pump's not available
because I got a favorite pump because it faces the
freeway and it's easy access.
Speaker 2: So I'm that way I have.
Speaker 1: The other night, my wife was kind of to do
some prep cooking for me, my fish and taters, and
we sat down to eat together. So oop, it's just
about having my fish on the wrong side of the
plate because it's a prep cooking, you know, tupworth thing. Ooops,
the fish has to go on the left. You probably
do the same thing with some elemental products, for instance, soap.
You probably don't even think about why you purchase the
soap you purchase, so you probably don't think about the
chemicals in it, or the fact that it might be
made with slave labor in China, or the fact that
the company that makes the soap may well, contribute to
causes you can't stand, or that it does not support life.
Alan Soaps is just the opposite. It is an artisan's soap,
meaning made in incredibly small batches, so they have complete control.
This family has done this for three generations. The whole
purpose of the soap company is to provide you this excellent,
all natural, no chemical so so. Alan, who's fourteen, has
been through eighteen operations, is non verbal through autism, so
he can work there. So Ian also impacted by autism,
can work there. So Amy, who was neurotypical until her
late teens early twenties, can work there. That's the mission.
The soap makes it possible, so change your consumer behavior.
Go to Alan Soaps dot com slash Todd's promo codes
had to get tempercent off all their products. It's Alan
Soaps dot com slash Todd so Zach. This is these
kind of cool roundtables that are going on. And this
kid man, he's had some monster sodas, he's had some caffeine,
he's got some five minute energy.
Speaker 2: God knows what else. He is jazz.
Speaker 1: He's got the hat on backwards and you got the
beltway dude sitting there and they argue economics, and this
kid comes in mentally jacked.
Speaker 8: Society. Where's the lower wages?
Speaker 4: What do you mean?
Speaker 9: Where's the lower wages?
Speaker 3: Where?
Speaker 8: Yes, you the basis for saying no lower wage.
Speaker 9: Sure, so you can look at like the STEM industry,
it's been in like a complete and total recession. There's
been tons of studies, like from the Economic Policy Institute
that shows that like companies like Tesla companies from like
to Look on Valley, they engaged in mass firing of
workers around thirty five thousand, but then they hired around
twelve thousand h one b visus And it's kind of
just like just standard economic thinking.
Speaker 2: If you ain't not.
Speaker 8: Standard economic, the vast majority of economists and economic studies
suggest that there is a negligible, if if no, impact
on wages over time.
Speaker 2: That's not from immigrants.
Speaker 8: In fact, your colleague mentioned earlier construction. There is actually
evidence in construction, yes, but in some industries, in some
areas there is an impact, but overall no. In fact,
and that study from the National Bureau of Economic Research
found that migrants since nineteen sixty five have raised wages
and raised innovations.
Speaker 10: That National Bureau for Economic Research no that's no. Hold,
that's where you published studies. I didn't memorize the Yeah,
I know you didn't, right, yeah, Gerhold on. The study
you're talking about is from Giovanni Perry, and what he
did is he didn't account for aggregation issues in order
to a.
Speaker 2: Vast majority of study.
Speaker 9: Let me speak, please, yeah, thank you? Right, so listen,
he didn't account for aggregation issues, right. And when you
look at like the spatial approach was with all these
economists use, you're not accounting for the fact that when
immigrants come into an area, natives leave. If you look
at an occupational approach where you look at look at
the specific firms and immigration's going into like Kim et al.
Tenty thirteen, did you find a net negative impact when
there's a ten percent increase of immigrations, you find around
one point five percent declining wages when it comes to
the specific occupations are going to.
Speaker 1: We didn't pull the part where the journalists are you
uncons I think the kid came locked and loaded, man
and caffeined up.
Speaker 6: Yeah, well, I look and this is the idioc you're
up against. Right, I'm so glad the kid could pull
the citation that reps shove them right down the guy's throats, right, because,
I mean, think how stupid that is. Right, You let
mass immigration from people that come to a country where
the cost of living is you know six you know what,
you know, ten percent, fifteen percent of what it is here, Okay,
and then you and you, and one of the reasons
you're hiring them is because you can pay them a
lower wage. And you're gonna tell me on aggregate that
that's not gonna pull down wages.
Speaker 4: It doesn't. And this is the idiocy.
Speaker 6: And this is the problem with soft sciences like economics
that have been most mostly taken over by one political party,
because all they've turned into is a loud speaker for
the for the economic nonsense coming out of that political faction.
It's not science, right, I mean a college kid configure.
Speaker 4: Yeah, we're gonna flood.
Speaker 6: We're gonna flood this country with fifteen percent immigration over
the space of twelve months, and your wages aren't gonna
go down. Con come on, right, it's the dumb He's
one hundred percent right. That journalist is a complete idiot,
which is probably why he's a journalist.
Speaker 1: There we go, Thank you for sharing what you really
feel Zach Abraham and think you can reach Zach at
No Your riskpodcast dot com.
Speaker 2: Thank you, my brother. Always the joy to have you here.
Speaker 4: Always fun to be here man, thanks for having me.
Speaker 2: This is a Todd Hermanshew. Please go, be well, be strong,
be kind.
Speaker 1: Remember the love of money is the roots of many evils.
Not money itself, but the love of money because can
separate you from God. So don't be separated. Walk in
the light of Christ.