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Speaker 1: What are the details on this deal with Japan that

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President Trump has said is a massive trade agreement with Japan.

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It's never been done before.

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Speaker 2: We'll talk about that.

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Speaker 1: The Genius Act, Central Bank Digital currency Trump says not

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ear his watch, and yet the investment in cyber currencies.

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Speaker 2: We'll talk about that.

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Speaker 1: And as John Fetterman just what's happening with him all

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of a sudden he wants to protect her access to

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cash and to using cash. We'll talk about all of

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this with my friend and brother, Zach Abraham, Chief Investment's

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Office or Bulwark Capital Managements. And of course, through the

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great grace of God Almighty.

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Speaker 3: But Todd Herman Show is one hundred percent disapproved by

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big pharma technocrats in tyrone Cebrian ware from the high

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mountains of Free America. Here's the Emerald City XI.

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Speaker 2: Todd Herman.

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Speaker 1: Today is the day the Lord has made in These

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are the times to which God has decided we shall live.

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Zach Abraham, chief Investment Officer Bowock Capital Management, joins me. Zach,

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welcome back to the Todd Hermer Show.

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Speaker 4: Good to be back, sir.

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Speaker 2: This Genius Act.

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Speaker 1: Can we start here because you and I have talked

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a lot about cybercrons and bitcoin, et cetera. And what

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I really want to get at is Trump's investing in

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this genius Act, bring this into law, paving the way

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for then states to lead the global digital currency revolution.

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And I just have a question as we watch this together.

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Speaker 5: This is which is a big scandal. If that were

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a Republican it would really be a big scandal. But

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it is one of the great scandals of our time.

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Thank you very much, everybody.

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Speaker 1: She set up safe digital currencies a reserve on this,

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And I'm once again conflicted, Zach, because I support the

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presidents in so many things, and I'm sorry with the

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Trump coins and all the ease.

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Speaker 2: With which this can be used to enrich people. I'm sorry.

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to be freaked out, but I'm freaked out.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 6: I don't really know what else to say other than

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the you should be I'm trying to like. So, I

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think that the technology underlying a lot of this crypto

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so blockchain technology. Yeah, I think it's revolutionary.

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Speaker 4: I think it's a really big deal.

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Speaker 6: I think it's going to take a lot of intermediaries,

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meaning people that add no value in transactions but are

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just in there collecting a toll. I think that they're

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going to make the private trading or the trading of

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private assets super seamless.

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Speaker 4: I think it's I think it's a big deal.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 6: The issue that I have is that technology is getting

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conflated with cryptocurrency as a whole.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 6: So when you look at the vast majority of cryptocurrency,

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a lot of it's just a fiat currency without a

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government or a military backing it, right, And so I'm

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watching the fanfare and energy. The point of my statement is,

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I don't think I've ever seen the US government and

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I'm trying to think right now, so I don't step

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on my step on my step my own foot here,

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but I don't think I've ever seen a point where

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this much fanfare, this much attention, and this many resources

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was going in to a sector that was going to

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repay us with so little value. Meaning I think blockchain

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is going to be a big deal. Cryptocurrency isn't like.

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Speaker 4: Is the value of it going to keep going up? Yeah?

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Speaker 6: Probably because I think it's I think the biggest thing

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fueling cryptocurrencies rise is is deficit spending by governments around

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the country around the world, right, and the printing of

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money and fiat so so I don't anticipate that stopping.

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But cryptocurrency, the way that we see it, it's it's

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a scammer's paradise. And and when you look at the

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cryptocurrency as a whole, you know, I I I think

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just as much value is going to get extracted over

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time as the value is delivered in terms of the coin.

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The coin's going up, and and you know, I've said before,

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I think you can own bitcoin, maybe some ethereum.

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Speaker 4: Those are really the only two that I would go at.

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Speaker 6: And even those two, the whole thing is just really

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odd to me, because again, I just I think there's

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so much of this is just a product of printed money.

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Because you have all the crypto people that are all

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it's like a religion.

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Speaker 4: It's like a cult.

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Speaker 6: Right, But when you get down to it and you're like, Okay,

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so you've been telling me now for almost fifteen years,

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how great it's going to be. Okay, what what other

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practical use cases are out there for the stuff?

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Speaker 4: Right now?

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Speaker 6: The answer is none. We're fifteen years into it. What

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are these things being used as other than just betting?

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Speaker 4: Right? Just their bets? That's that's all we're doing.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and so, but the Genius actors understand that there's

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you know, these these companies that are now going to

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be safe coins, and the government's going to invest in

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these and but but they're going to invest with.

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Speaker 6: What Here's another here's another issue. Here's another issue. So

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when you look at the Genius Bill with the stable

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coins and the way they're written, yeah, okay, So basically

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when you hear a company say we're going to launch

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a stable coin, they're that that means that they're effectively

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becoming a bank, okay, without having to go through any

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of the regulation, any of the oversight, any of the

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other stuff.

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Speaker 4: It's madness. This is nuts. It allows them.

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Speaker 6: To hold customer deposits on their balance sheet in the

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customer's name, and earn interest off of those balances.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: How was that not a bank.

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Speaker 2: By name only?

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Speaker 1: And this is why I join you in saying it's

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a scammers paradise by name only.

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Speaker 2: It's not a bank.

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Speaker 6: Do you know how much do you know how much

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fraud and grift is gonna I mean, you've already seen

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a mountain of fraud and grift coming out of this.

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Now that you've made it. The stable coin thing, the

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fraud and grift is going to be unbelievable. Yeah, and

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they'll be good actors, right, There'll be good guys in

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there too that are doing the right thing and are

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actually doing things that take the technology forward. But the

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way this, I mean we were looking over the legislation,

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I'm sitting there going, Okay, you've basically gave it given

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every corporation the right to be a bank without any

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of the regulation or oversight.

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Speaker 4: It's crazy.

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Speaker 1: I knew it was gonna get this way when I

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saw the apple coin being promoted and the x coin,

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and I just about gave in and bought some of

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that stuff. And I told you I wasn't going to

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go through the process of getting a stable coin and

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then buying that stuff. And I do want to ask

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you about Fetterman, And then we got to dig into this

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trading im which Japan. This is actually a lot economically

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this week to talk about. And I know you had, yeah,

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I know you had your workshop this week and your

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halftime free webinar, So I want to make sure we

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get some of the highlights from that, at least what

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you think are the highlights of what you talked about

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and what your message.

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Speaker 2: Was, So we'll get to that.

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Speaker 1: There is a lot of scam, as you know, in

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the medical worlds in this country, particularly in America. There

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are scam supplement companies. There are good supplement companies. There

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are scam medical people. There are good medical people. One

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thing I want you to make sure that you understand

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is when I talk about the stem cells from renewed

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dot Healthcare in Mexico, they are distinctly different from any

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kind of stem cells they do in America. So let

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me just give you the technical phrase. In America they

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allow minimally manipulated stem cells. And the way this is

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manifesting is chiropractors and pain management people.

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Speaker 2: They get what are called autographs.

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Speaker 1: Frozen stem cells ship to them. Who were the sources

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of the stem cells largely don't don't know what are

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the quality of the stem cells. Don't know depends on

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the provider, how long have they been frozen, don't know

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how many steps in transit, don't know. In Mexico at

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renew dot Healthcare, the umbilical cords are downstairs. They walk

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downstairs from the hospital maybe five minutes into a world

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class lab one step below a bio containment lab. They

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examine the stem cells that reject any of them that

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are not as reactive as they need or show any

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signs of problems. They track the health of the mother

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and the baby prior to, during and after birth, and

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before they ever inject the stem cells and if you

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they test them for potency again. And that's just the

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very beginning. It is world's apart. If you're suffering from pain,

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you're being told it's surgery, or just get used to

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not walking. Things like that. Go to renew r E

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n U e dot Healthcare, telling me a part of

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the Todd Hermanshaw Families R E n U E dot Healthcare.

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So John Fetterman is he plays an interesting game zach

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where he is now calling out his party for being

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so extreme an immigration, being so extreme against ice and

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then to go and do the votes that he has

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to do as a Democrat. But he and Kevin Kramer

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are partman. Kramer from North Dakota have introduced a bill

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that would make it what would I guess, emphasize that

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we can use cash for anything, because I don't know

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if you've ever seen a dollar bill, but it says

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on it that it's good for all debts publican privates.

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And that's the federal law. Now, ilwys love it. When

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I'm on an airline, we don't take cash. I'm like, yeah,

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But you see the bill here where it says this

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is good for all debts publican private. The fact that

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they're having to do this means that finally there's a

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consciousness coming about that there are people beginning to wake

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up to the fact that the end of cash is

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sort of the end of freedom.

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Speaker 2: What's your response in that.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, they're going to you know, they're going to draw

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in with the efficiencies, right, which is true?

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Speaker 3: Right?

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Speaker 7: Right?

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Speaker 1: I have a credit card, the debit card that's all digital.

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That's how they're going to draw us in. On your watch,

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scan your eye. I know, I got my new iPhone.

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I thought I was putting my credit card in for

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app purchases. Turns out now I have Apple Wallet. I

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don't want Apple Wallet. Won't let me get rid of it.

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I can't, you know, I can't forget to disable. So

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get all that, right, But it's it's now all of

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a sudden, my my amex is in my phone.

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Speaker 2: I don't want it in my phone.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, so I kind of look at this, this this

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move against cash, if you will, and I mean, and

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I'm telling you nothing, you don't know.

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Speaker 4: You've been talking about it for a while. This is

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not new, right.

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Speaker 6: I see this as sort of the monetary currency version

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of what they've done to so many countries in Europe

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by bringing in mass immigration this short period of time.

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Meaning on the surface of it, it looks, you know,

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nobody wants say anything because they don't want to be

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called the racist.

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Speaker 4: Well it's immigration. You know, these people are refugees.

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Speaker 6: Okay, but what is that when you mass immigrate that

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many people into a small country that quickly, yeah, you're destroying.

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Speaker 4: The culture, they know.

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Speaker 6: And and by saying you're destroying the culture doesn't mean

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the people that you're bringing in are bad. It just

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means that no culture can absorb that amount. But a

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good buddy of mine from Greece, he was telling me

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they were vacationing there this summer and they were walking

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around downtown Athens and he goes, you know, my dad

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grew up here. I spent summers here as a kid.

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He goes, you walk down downtown Athens, all you see

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is smallies, That's all it's there. Yeah, like smally shops,

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smally restaurants in Greece. Right, So what they're doing against

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cash is kind of the same version of that. We

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can sit there and we can tell you all the

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efficiencies you're going to gain, all the fraud it's going

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to stop.

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Speaker 4: But where does this move us? It moves us.

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Speaker 6: It's another step along the path of and I don't

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want to sound conspiratorial, but it's not conspiratorial. And if

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you don't know what I mean, just go look up

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the website in society, George Soros, Open society, right, no borders,

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the end of sovereignty, all that kind of stuff.

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Speaker 4: Right.

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Speaker 6: Well, in order to get rid of sovereignty, two big

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steps along the way are culture and currency, right yep.

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So because currency is a differentiator between cultures. Yeah, culture

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is clearly a differentiator between cultures. So what you see

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is you see this slow creep that looks uncorrelated, right, right,

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But then you look at it and you go, wait

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a second, hold on, hold on. So we know there's

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a contingency in the world that has massive hooks into

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the World Economic Forum, NATO, all this kind of stuff,

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and we see these moves that correspond perfectly with the

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goal and the aims of the open society yep, right,

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And then we're told, oh, it has nothing to do

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with that, yep, and you're like, okay, man, look if

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it walks like a duck toox, like, right, it's a duck.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: So that's where we're at in the end of cash.

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Speaker 6: I think if you don't have physical tender, if you

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don't have physical currency, I think that that is an

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assault on freedom.

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Speaker 4: Because it is.

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Speaker 6: Why should the government have purview in every single transaction

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that I make?

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Speaker 2: Right, and you don't.

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Speaker 1: I think you don't own digital currency, right, you can't

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possess it. I mean, you really don't own what you

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can't possess. We don't know houses because of property tax.

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But I mean you're there and you can kind of

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prevent people from coming in. But what you said about

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currency and culture together, those are very potent things. This

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redistribution of people and this forcible mass redistribution to people.

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People forget that when you import human beings, you import

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their attitudes, you import their face, their expectations of government.

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And chaos comes when you take a society and you

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rush people in who do not want the existing things.

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So look at Minnesota and what's happened there where it's

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become Mini Somalia. You have people who call Samalia home

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who may well be mayor of Minneapolis. This guy calls

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Somalia his home, and he may well be the mayor

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of Minneapolis, and he has identified white people as the problem.

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He has admitted that his job is to bring the

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Somali you know, to bring the Islamic faith into governance

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and Sharia. And I mean, these are all things he's admitted,

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and why wouldn't he that's who he.

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Speaker 4: Is, so well, yeah, it's it's it's like that.

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Speaker 6: It's like the human version of supersaturation, right, anybody that's

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ever you know, you've seen the same thing happens culturally.

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You supersaturate ground, yep, and it can't take any more water.

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You put more water, and stand right that the same

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thing happens in culture. When you're importing, over the space

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of five years, the equivalent of twenty percent of a population. Yeah,

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you're effectively attempting to rip down that culture from the inside.

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And and again it's not it has nothing to do

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with the people. And people are afraid to speak out

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about this because it's racism.

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Speaker 4: The culture could be really bad. Okay, I'm just saying.

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Speaker 6: When you like, just via order of Dick Pat, just

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move people in all of the sudden, right, No, that

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you offer you allow no time for the soil.

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Speaker 4: To absorb it.

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Speaker 6: Yep, right, you offer no time for there to be

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you know, for them to assimilate to the to the

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culture that they're a part of.

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Speaker 4: Yes, And so what do they do?

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Speaker 6: They do the same thing if it if it happened

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to us, right, what would happen if we were refugees

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and they moved a bunch of us into Italy, right?

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Speaker 4: Or or Spain? What would we do?

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Speaker 6: We'd congregate together, We'd start having English speaking neighborhoods with

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English restaurants, and we'd start changing the culture. And that's

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it's it's a sad thing because once you lose a

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culture like that, you don't get it back.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: And there's this stimilation and the civilization aspect. And this

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is what I wanted to talk about in connection to currency.

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So they get that, they destabilize. And another way to

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look at this is you and I. If I don't drink,

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but if you and I were to go out, let's

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say on a day and we spent the day together

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hanging out. If I had three beers across fifteen hours,

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probably nothing's gonna happen to me because they don't drink.

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If I had three beers in fifteen minutes, I'm going

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to be a mess and it's going to be stabilize me.

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So the presence of mass rushing people in the three

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beers in three minutes, that destabilizes a culture. That adds

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to the ability of the bosses of the world to control.

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And they've come in and said, this is goodness, this

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is humanitarianism, this benefits to society. Diversity is their strength. Well, okay,

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until you force it upon people at the same time

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as then they're taking our cash or wanting to take

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it away from us. It's convenience, it's going to prevent fraud,

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it's going to do all these things. But it destabilizes

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in a very sneaky way where all of a sudden,

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you don't own a thing, and people in Minneapolis they

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no longer own their culture. That's gone, and then we

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don't own cash. So it is something that we need

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to look out.

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Speaker 6: For and and it breaks my heart and bums me

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out because my favorite part I love I love.

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Speaker 4: Experiencing other cultures. I just love it.

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Speaker 6: And I know I was down with you in Mexico

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and you, you and I have similar ways of going

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about doing it when I'm when I'm in somebody else's country,

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I try to assimilate to you know, adhere to their

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culture and adhere to their rules and.

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Speaker 4: Tore part of what yeah, and to learn and to learn.

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I want to see it through their eyes, not through

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a tourists.

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Speaker 6: And it and it and it and and there's that

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underlying pernicious hatred too that you can kind of get

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a feeling of. Because if you want to make a

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one world government, and you know, for the listeners out

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there really think about this, one of the only way

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to make that feasible, the only way to make it

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palatable to the electorate, is if you destroy culture.

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Speaker 4: Yep, right, that's it's part and parcel.

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Speaker 6: You need to destroy culture, you need to destroy currencies.

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And those are two of the bedrocks that you'd have

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to flip over in order to pull that off.

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Speaker 4: And that's what they're doing.

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Speaker 2: Say look at other casts now to come in and

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solve it globally. So we'll talk about.

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Speaker 1: This Global Agreement's not global. I guess it's between US

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and Japan. It has global impact, probably President Trump's trade

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deal here.

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Speaker 2: At least it avoids a trade war.

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Speaker 1: Now this is I don't know if you've seen this

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sc I have to show it up to this camera

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because Zach has to look through my laptop then I

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can shift it.

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Speaker 2: Can you see that at all? I don't know if

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you can see that.

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Speaker 4: That's the extortion blend.

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00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:47,079
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, this is from bone Frog Bone Frog Coffee.

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Extortion seventeen is one of the most infamous ops that

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everyone on in Special Forces Land. It was the biggest

379
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loss of life in you Special Forces Command history extortionsventeen

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and the BEAG honors the team. You can see on

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the side the names of the guys who lost their

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lives in this and Tim provides a minor, I mean,

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00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:11,480
kind of a synopsis of what happened. On August six,

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twenty eleven, a US forty seven Shuna helicopter was shot

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down while transporting a quick reaction force attempting to reinforce

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an engaged unit of Army rangers in Wardock Province, Afghanistan.

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The resulting crash killed all thirt eight people on board

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twenty five American Special Operations personnel, five US Army National Guard,

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Army Reserve crewmen, seven Afghan commandos, and one Afghan interpreter,

390
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as well as a US military working dog. It's considered

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the worst loss of life in US military history. Now

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that's what Tim can say and keep his agreement with

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the Department Defense. He mentioned something as source said that

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shook us shaking in disbelief research extortion seventeen. Okay, it's

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not hard to find. There are people who chosen to

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on the bottom. And never forget the names of these guys.

400
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Veteran owned, veteran operated, made in the USA. And it's

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also Tim operates under the guidance of Dave Stewart, who's

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a coffee legend. Go to Bonefrog Coffee dot com slash Todd,

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Speaker 2: For life on subscription coffee. Bonefrog Coffee dot Com slash

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Speaker 1: President Trump, in very characteristically humble style, came out and

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announced a minor trade deal with Japan, which he said

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no one thought could get done. It's the biggest thing

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00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:45,000
in history, and it's from the automotive sector. This is

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how CNN reported it. And you know they tell the

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00:20:47,039 --> 00:20:50,920
straight story on Trump because they made They are hardcore journalists.

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The deal will see US importers pay fifteen percent reciprocal

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tariffs on Japanese goods exported the United States. But importantly

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for Japan, the fifteen percent rate will also extend automobiles

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and car parts, putting it at an advantage over two

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major vehicle exporters, which have faced twenty five percent levy

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on automotive sectors exports since April. Japan will also invest

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five hundred and fifty billion dollars into the United States,

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Trump said, adding that the US will receive ninety percent

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of the profits. The deal would create hundreds of thousands

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of jobs. There's never there's never been anything like it.

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Perhaps the most importantly, Japan will open their country to trade,

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including cars and trucks, rice, and certain other agricultural projects

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and other things. Japan will pay reciprocal tarifts the United

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States to fifteen percent. The newsaw Japanese market hit a

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one year high on Wednesday, with the surge in the

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price of automaker shares, pushing the knee Kai to three

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point seven percent higher. I guess on first blush, Okay,

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this looks really good.

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Speaker 2: And then there's the second blush.

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Speaker 1: Aren't we trying to have American car manufacturers have an advantage?

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Speaker 4: Yeah? So that's the most puzzling part about this.

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Speaker 6: Is the way that they strugg Now, we got it

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to be fairer.

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Speaker 4: We got to see the way it filters out.

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Speaker 6: Like I was telling you off screen, I you know,

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being familiar with Trump in the way goes about doing something,

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I will be shocked if there isn't some kind of

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additional news that comes out regarding something that he's going to.

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Speaker 4: Do for US auto manufacturers.

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Speaker 6: But at first glance, it's it's a bit of a

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head scratcher because what you've done. You because of the

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trade deals that we've cut so cut so far, or

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or the tariffs we've put on so far, US auto

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manufacturers are paying pretty massive tariffs. Tariffs on steel and

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and and things of that nature. So the Japanese automakers

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are not paying that same tariff. So net net, when

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you look after this trade deal as it sits right now,

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Japanese automakers have a competitive advantage over US automakers here

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in the US they did not have prior to this steal.

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Speaker 4: Now, like I said.

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Speaker 6: I I can't what it looks to me, like, hey, okay, yeah,

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we see this part. What you don't know is coming

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is this and that's going to even that out. I've

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got to believe there's more to the story because I

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don't see why Trump would cut a deal like this,

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But as it sits right now, it's a bit of

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a head scratcher.

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Speaker 4: I gotta believe there's more coming well, And.

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Speaker 1: I got to believe that if they're moving five hundred

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and fifty billion dollars into the US, that's that's not

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going to be Hey, here's some cash, and it's that

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couldn't wouldn't create jobs. So if they're truly moving manufacturing

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over here and they're beginning to use maybe US steel,

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because it would make no stinking sense for US to

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for them to have steel from another country come here

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and they're using US steel and US labor, and then

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Trump says we're getting ninety percent of the profits. I

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don't know if I believe that, because one thing about

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the Japanese business culture is they're pretty smart, right, But

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maybe that's what Maybe it seems like this is now

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made in the US because it's going to be at

475
00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:18,000
this presence here. Maybe that's how they're kind of explaining

476
00:24:18,039 --> 00:24:19,119
to themselves.

477
00:24:19,519 --> 00:24:23,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, we were going.

478
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:25,200
Speaker 6: We were just kind of I was just sitting actually

479
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:27,759
in an office with a couple of my analysts, so

480
00:24:27,839 --> 00:24:33,160
we were running through it and it leaves more truthfully

481
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:37,000
without jumping to conclusions. It's one of those things where

482
00:24:37,039 --> 00:24:40,799
like like I was saying, where you're going, Okay, this

483
00:24:40,839 --> 00:24:43,160
is a start. I've got to believe there's more coming

484
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:45,599
down the pipe because the way this is written right now,

485
00:24:45,759 --> 00:24:50,039
it doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Now, maybe

486
00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:53,519
what he's sitting there thinking is he's going to use that.

487
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:56,079
Maybe he'll make an announcement that he's going to use

488
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:59,440
fifteen the fifteen percent tariff or the revenue from the

489
00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,559
tariff city gets off of this deal to help subsidize

490
00:25:02,559 --> 00:25:07,279
I don't know, maybe help subsidize US automakers. Maybe there's

491
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:09,880
but there's got to be something like that, because the

492
00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:11,960
way it's, like I said, the way it's structured right now,

493
00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:14,920
the way it's structured right now, he just gave automobile

494
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:19,920
Japanese Automo Beial manufacturers a serious competitive advantage in this

495
00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:24,079
in this space. And you know, you and I have

496
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:25,240
been pretty forthright.

497
00:25:25,279 --> 00:25:27,640
Speaker 4: I think uh and and fair.

498
00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:31,960
Speaker 6: I also think criticizing some of his moves, I think

499
00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:34,839
that this is a little too early to be criticial.

500
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:36,759
Speaker 4: Just because I trust I want.

501
00:25:36,799 --> 00:25:39,400
Speaker 6: One thing that I have complete confidence in is Trump's

502
00:25:39,599 --> 00:25:42,240
desire to get manufacturing back here in the US and

503
00:25:42,319 --> 00:25:44,799
to give US companies a fair shake.

504
00:25:44,839 --> 00:25:46,039
Speaker 4: I don't question that at all.

505
00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:48,680
Speaker 2: No, it's it's evident in him. He loves it.

506
00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:49,319
Speaker 7: Yeah.

507
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:52,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, and he's jazz by construction and stuff being made here.

508
00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:55,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, dude, did you see him when he was in

509
00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:56,359
the garbage truck?

510
00:25:57,240 --> 00:25:57,920
Speaker 4: Oh? Love, Oh.

511
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:00,440
Speaker 1: I got to tell you. My sister in law reminded me,

512
00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:02,240
and here I am going to give away another billion.

513
00:26:02,039 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 2: Dollar business idea.

514
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:04,720
Speaker 1: I was talking to my sister in law the other

515
00:26:04,759 --> 00:26:08,799
day and she reminded me of this idea had back

516
00:26:08,799 --> 00:26:13,440
in the day of an adult Disneyland, not that type,

517
00:26:13,839 --> 00:26:15,160
not to clean.

518
00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:15,759
Speaker 2: Your filthy heads.

519
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:23,680
Speaker 1: So Alex is laughing, what was just saying? I just said, well, okay,

520
00:26:23,759 --> 00:26:24,559
you you bit.

521
00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:26,279
Speaker 3: So.

522
00:26:26,599 --> 00:26:29,480
Speaker 1: I had this idea of well let me just let

523
00:26:29,519 --> 00:26:32,400
me just say, okay, if you steal this, just name

524
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:32,880
it after me.

525
00:26:34,039 --> 00:26:35,720
Speaker 2: I want to create a place.

526
00:26:35,599 --> 00:26:38,839
Speaker 1: Where men who've never done it, or young kid young

527
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:42,079
men who've never done it, like rich guys, can come

528
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:45,279
to a state and they can start by driving let's say,

529
00:26:45,599 --> 00:26:51,039
a forklift, and then a bobcat, and then a back

530
00:26:51,079 --> 00:26:55,240
hoe and then an earth mover, and it would be

531
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:58,200
like they could graduate up to driving some of those massive,

532
00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:01,799
big pieces of equipment, digging holes and filling them in

533
00:27:02,039 --> 00:27:06,240
and stacking things up and taking things down, running jackhammers,

534
00:27:06,279 --> 00:27:10,559
destroying big rocks. Dude, tell me that guys who grew

535
00:27:10,599 --> 00:27:12,880
up in Silicon Valley doing this on a keyboard all

536
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:15,279
day and looking at screens and they've never you know,

537
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:17,839
touched earth or they've never had their hands, tell me

538
00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:19,960
they wouldn't pay a premium to come and dig on.

539
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:20,240
Speaker 3: Some of that.

540
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:23,880
Speaker 6: I mean, people are paying to go to rage rooms,

541
00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:25,640
you know, where you give them a sledgehammer and they

542
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:26,400
break stuff with it.

543
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:27,839
Speaker 4: Oh you know.

544
00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:30,640
Speaker 6: If you could go there, like put some old cars

545
00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:32,799
in there, let them pick up a car with one

546
00:27:32,799 --> 00:27:34,640
of those things, drop it on.

547
00:27:34,519 --> 00:27:36,079
Speaker 4: Something, dig a deal.

548
00:27:36,319 --> 00:27:38,960
Speaker 6: Hey, here's the other thing too. If they have never

549
00:27:39,039 --> 00:27:42,400
worked on machinery. Now, when you do it all day,

550
00:27:42,519 --> 00:27:44,319
I mean, it gets old pretty quick. It's kind of

551
00:27:44,319 --> 00:27:46,079
like mowing the lawn when you're a kid, Right, You're

552
00:27:46,079 --> 00:27:49,240
all jacked up for the first couple passes and they're like, eh, right,

553
00:27:49,279 --> 00:27:53,559
this is cool. But but it's fun. I mean it

554
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:56,279
really is. It's it's fun stuff. I mean, it's we

555
00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:58,440
still have that little boy part of us in there

556
00:27:58,440 --> 00:27:59,880
that wants to just dig a hole and see how

557
00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:00,519
we can get it.

558
00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:01,880
Speaker 4: Or we can drop the car.

559
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:05,000
Speaker 1: Hey, could I drop this is a bigger car, or

560
00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:07,160
this is big truck. I'll drop it in this little car.

561
00:28:07,319 --> 00:28:08,680
Or maybe I get the car to bounce.

562
00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:09,680
Speaker 2: I love that.

563
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:12,759
Speaker 6: Or or we could drop a car on another car,

564
00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:16,480
make like a squat squash car sandwich I mean think

565
00:28:16,519 --> 00:28:19,720
about I mean yeah, and then and then at the

566
00:28:19,839 --> 00:28:22,559
end of the day, the coup de gras is that

567
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:25,400
they bring out all of the heavy weapons systems and

568
00:28:25,519 --> 00:28:26,880
let you just gun them down.

569
00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:29,079
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, right, that bonus. That's a bonus.

570
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:31,559
Speaker 4: Well yeah, you got to buy the vi P pass

571
00:28:31,559 --> 00:28:34,680
for that. Christ No, that's yeah.

572
00:28:35,039 --> 00:28:38,240
Speaker 1: Okay, So this is again someone's gonna steal this. Just

573
00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:39,519
give me credit somewhere.

574
00:28:39,839 --> 00:28:41,279
Speaker 2: I mean this. You have equipment.

575
00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:43,920
Speaker 1: There's equipment by where we live that's been sitting out

576
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:45,559
in the field all year because they're prepping to do

577
00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:48,079
something there. I'm like, guys, that doesn't need to be

578
00:28:48,119 --> 00:28:51,319
a dead asset. There's guys who can I just drive it?

579
00:28:51,759 --> 00:28:53,480
I just I just I just want to drive.

580
00:28:53,279 --> 00:28:55,039
Speaker 4: The thing Herman spunhouse.

581
00:28:55,079 --> 00:28:58,720
Speaker 6: Man, just shut it down to Herman Spunhouse and let

582
00:28:58,759 --> 00:29:00,519
the adults play, let them have I love it.

583
00:29:01,119 --> 00:29:03,839
Speaker 1: We need to update some employment numbers here in a seconds.

584
00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:06,319
And then I want to go to Scott Bessent, who

585
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:11,920
said something that could be seen as scary and revolutionary

586
00:29:12,039 --> 00:29:14,720
if you are a shiny shoe Republican. So we'll get

587
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:19,279
to that there is. It's not a scary movie or serious,

588
00:29:19,279 --> 00:29:22,000
I should say. But man, if you're kind of a

589
00:29:23,599 --> 00:29:28,079
soft soap Christian and you're not really into defending the faith,

590
00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:31,880
and or you think you're defending it, or you will,

591
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:32,960
but you're maybe not.

592
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:35,559
Speaker 2: There is a new series.

593
00:29:35,079 --> 00:29:39,079
Speaker 1: From Angel Studios called Testament, and what they've done is

594
00:29:39,079 --> 00:29:43,960
they've taken the Book of Acts and they've transported it

595
00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:47,319
into a time where there is a censorship culture and

596
00:29:47,519 --> 00:29:48,160
there is.

597
00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 2: A culture of hatred of the truth.

598
00:29:51,759 --> 00:29:56,559
Speaker 1: And they're taking the Biblical not characters, but actual human beings. James,

599
00:29:57,200 --> 00:29:59,920
and they're taking Philip, and they're taking Paul of Core

600
00:30:01,039 --> 00:30:04,599
and they're transporting him into this world where things are

601
00:30:05,079 --> 00:30:08,039
much like ours. So you see them defend the faith.

602
00:30:08,039 --> 00:30:11,799
They'ven't written Mary into this, which is cool. So they've

603
00:30:11,799 --> 00:30:15,200
written this up in its Testaments and it is an

604
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:17,799
opportunity for us to say, will we stand for Jesus

605
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:21,599
Christ when the entire world stands against us, when our

606
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:24,240
lives are on the line. Now you can stream this

607
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:27,759
right now. You go to angel dot com slash Todd

608
00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:32,440
become a Premium Angel Studio Guild member. Stream Testament right now.

609
00:30:33,079 --> 00:30:35,079
And when you're a Premium member, you get two free

610
00:30:35,160 --> 00:30:38,839
tickets to every Angel Studio theatrical release. Plus you get

611
00:30:38,839 --> 00:30:42,960
to vote on the movies end series that they produce

612
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:45,359
and that they promote. And it's helping to change culture.

613
00:30:45,359 --> 00:30:48,359
It's Angel dot com slash todd and it's called Testament.

614
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:52,119
Angel dot com slash todd. It's called Testament. So Zach,

615
00:30:52,279 --> 00:30:56,519
this is this, this corrected numbers. Now, I don't want

616
00:30:56,519 --> 00:30:58,359
to say that there was any political motivation behind this

617
00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:01,599
at all, because why would there be. The Beuerau of

618
00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:04,480
Label Statistics just this past week came out and said, hey,

619
00:31:04,720 --> 00:31:06,880
you know got to a thing. We got to tell

620
00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:10,240
you the numbers of jobs reported for the nine months

621
00:31:10,279 --> 00:31:12,440
ending in December twenty twenty four was a little bit

622
00:31:12,519 --> 00:31:22,000
overstated by about eight hundred thousand people. Just and if

623
00:31:22,039 --> 00:31:23,960
you look at this chart that Alex has put up

624
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:31,839
on the screen, that is an impressive mistake eight hundred

625
00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:36,759
thousand people. Do we have any way to stop relying

626
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:38,559
on the BLS statistics?

627
00:31:38,599 --> 00:31:39,400
Speaker 2: Is there any way?

628
00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:41,680
Speaker 1: I mean, you guys have analysts all over the place.

629
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:44,920
Do you guys get better data than the BLS? Because

630
00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:48,880
I gotta believe big sophisticated investors who are looking at

631
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:51,640
headcounts in this country have better data than the BLS

632
00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:54,559
that comes back wrong this far and this big, this

633
00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:56,200
far in the future.

634
00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:00,799
Speaker 4: It's a tough data set for a lot of different reasons.

635
00:32:00,799 --> 00:32:02,920
Speaker 6: There's there's a lot of inputs in it, and and

636
00:32:03,039 --> 00:32:05,880
the data that they're being fed is noisy. So there's

637
00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:09,480
there is a part of it that is errant just

638
00:32:09,519 --> 00:32:13,720
because that's the nature of the data. Now, the flip

639
00:32:13,759 --> 00:32:18,079
side is when you go back through time and you

640
00:32:18,119 --> 00:32:21,960
start analyzing all of the misses or all the all

641
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:25,319
the you know, going in there and revising all the revisions. Yes,

642
00:32:25,359 --> 00:32:29,319
say they're like and don't quote me, but I want

643
00:32:29,359 --> 00:32:32,160
to say it's something around the department in the neighborhood

644
00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:35,519
of seventy five eighty percent if not slightly.

645
00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:38,440
Speaker 4: Higher, that all of those revisions.

646
00:32:38,559 --> 00:32:43,039
Speaker 6: Are downward, meaning there is a con like an overwhelming

647
00:32:43,119 --> 00:32:48,400
percentage of time those miss quote unquote mistakes or misprints

648
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:49,720
over state jobs.

649
00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:52,759
Speaker 4: So is there a way to look at it?

650
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:56,400
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean there's been many times where we've seen

651
00:32:56,519 --> 00:33:00,319
job reports where we dig through the data and you go, Okay,

652
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:05,599
this job report looks way stronger. The last unemployment report

653
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:07,799
we had was a perfect a perfect example of this.

654
00:33:08,319 --> 00:33:11,839
It came out ce NBC headlines all you saw strong

655
00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:14,640
jobs report, strong jobs. Yeah, Well, you dig the underneath,

656
00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:18,160
you dug underneath the data. The headline number look good,

657
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:21,720
but it looked good because something else and it'd be

658
00:33:21,799 --> 00:33:24,039
too wonkish and confusing to get into it. But the

659
00:33:24,079 --> 00:33:27,839
headline number looked good because something else fell out of

660
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:31,440
the data that was had that that was going to

661
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:35,039
get added back in in the next report. So so

662
00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:39,599
what you knew what the report should have been is

663
00:33:40,079 --> 00:33:48,400
jobs numbers underwhelm, but statistical chicanery makes this number look good.

664
00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:50,200
Speaker 4: Right, that would have been That would have been the

665
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:51,279
true way to phrase it.

666
00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:54,519
Speaker 6: But it to be fair to them, it is tough.

667
00:33:54,759 --> 00:33:57,720
The data set is noisy, and and they're relying on

668
00:33:57,920 --> 00:34:02,480
outside actors to feed them. Yeah, so right, bad data in,

669
00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:03,519
bad data out.

670
00:34:03,839 --> 00:34:05,960
Speaker 4: So there's a part of that where you kind of

671
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:06,680
give them a pass.

672
00:34:07,119 --> 00:34:11,119
Speaker 6: The flip side is is that the number, like I said,

673
00:34:11,199 --> 00:34:13,719
it's something like seventy five eighty percent of the time.

674
00:34:14,079 --> 00:34:16,960
The revisions are always down and it might be higher

675
00:34:17,039 --> 00:34:19,280
than that. I don't want to overstate it. I think

676
00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:21,599
it's actually higher than that. It's like ninety percent of

677
00:34:21,639 --> 00:34:25,599
the time, but let's just call it eighty. The revisions

678
00:34:25,679 --> 00:34:27,679
are always to the downside.

679
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:30,840
Speaker 1: So let me tell you a sign of how sick

680
00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:34,599
DC is. When I work there on the leadership team

681
00:34:34,639 --> 00:34:38,440
at the RNC for that short cycle. The comms team

682
00:34:38,599 --> 00:34:42,480
had a little they had a huddle cave outside of

683
00:34:42,519 --> 00:34:44,880
the director's offices. The director of comms he had an

684
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:50,199
office window office, bottom floor facing a street, so kind

685
00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:52,280
of prestige office in a way, it's not a third

686
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:55,239
level and big office. And he had kind of a

687
00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:58,199
not a cave, but kind of a huddle area where

688
00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:00,360
his team could sit around and they got around table.

689
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:02,559
And so I don't remember what day this was, there's

690
00:35:02,599 --> 00:35:04,719
always a day with this happens. And I was in

691
00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:07,840
my office, which was across the way, smaller office, just

692
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:12,960
the chief digital guy, and I heard this applause and

693
00:35:13,039 --> 00:35:18,719
the comms team high fiving and laughing and celebrating. I thought, Wow,

694
00:35:19,519 --> 00:35:22,480
did some Democrats step down? Did we win some piece

695
00:35:22,519 --> 00:35:25,840
of big legislative battle. What's happened? Did we break a

696
00:35:25,880 --> 00:35:26,880
fundraising record?

697
00:35:27,079 --> 00:35:27,760
Speaker 2: You know what it was?

698
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:31,639
Speaker 1: It was the employment statistics in the country were way

699
00:35:31,639 --> 00:35:32,159
way down.

700
00:35:34,239 --> 00:35:38,639
Speaker 2: A bunch of people lost their jobs. Well that's cynical,

701
00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:42,639
and they're celebrating. And I walked over there.

702
00:35:43,039 --> 00:35:45,760
Speaker 1: I walked over and the comms director turned out to

703
00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:49,440
be a really good dude, as mobbed up shiny shoe

704
00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:52,039
as he is, good heart.

705
00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:54,920
Speaker 2: I walked over. I looked at him. He goes, what's

706
00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:55,639
this look like to you?

707
00:35:56,440 --> 00:36:02,559
Speaker 1: So honestly, you're sick, he said, I'm just now seeing

708
00:36:02,559 --> 00:36:04,039
this through the eyes of a guy who's never worked

709
00:36:04,039 --> 00:36:04,840
in Washington, d C.

710
00:36:05,159 --> 00:36:08,320
Speaker 2: This is sick. We're actually celebrating people losing their jobs.

711
00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:11,719
This is sick. But that's the instinct back there, Zach,

712
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:13,800
And yeah, I care.

713
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:15,079
Speaker 4: Everything's political.

714
00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:17,920
Speaker 2: Everything is political. Nothing is human.

715
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:23,039
Speaker 1: And that's why people like me weep in church pews

716
00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:26,840
after leaving DC. So we'll get to this bescent thing here.

717
00:36:27,119 --> 00:36:30,480
This is Scott Bissent and man, this must terrify some

718
00:36:30,519 --> 00:36:35,760
of the shindy shoes have SEC Treasury talking like this

719
00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:38,039
about the Federal Reserve, which, as you know, is made

720
00:36:38,079 --> 00:36:39,320
up of angels and saints.

721
00:36:39,559 --> 00:36:43,400
Speaker 7: Joe, I think that what we need to do is

722
00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:48,679
examine the entire Federal Reserve institution and whether they have

723
00:36:48,800 --> 00:36:52,679
been successful. I'm speaking actually, I'm going to be in

724
00:36:52,760 --> 00:36:57,519
the building this evening. There is a regulatory conference that

725
00:36:57,639 --> 00:37:02,480
begins tomorrow. I'm the note speaker tonight talking about regulation

726
00:37:04,159 --> 00:37:09,960
the FED as well monitor deals with monetary policy, regulations,

727
00:37:10,039 --> 00:37:16,719
financial stability, and again I think that we should think

728
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:20,360
has the organization succeeded in its mission?

729
00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:21,679
Speaker 2: You know, if this.

730
00:37:21,679 --> 00:37:25,880
Speaker 7: Were the FAA and we were having this many mistakes,

731
00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:30,400
we would go back and look at why why has

732
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:34,159
this happened? I mean, look at the as you said

733
00:37:34,519 --> 00:37:37,239
at the top of the at the top of this broadcast,

734
00:37:37,800 --> 00:37:40,760
there were you know, there was fear mongoring over tariffs,

735
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:46,079
and thus far we have seen very little, if any inflation.

736
00:37:46,239 --> 00:37:50,079
We've had great inflation numbers. So you know, I think

737
00:37:50,119 --> 00:37:52,840
this idea of them not being able to break out

738
00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:57,280
of a certain mindset. You know, all these PhDs over there,

739
00:37:57,400 --> 00:37:58,960
I don't know what they do. I don't know what

740
00:37:59,000 --> 00:38:04,800
they do. This is like universal basic income for academic economist.

741
00:38:05,480 --> 00:38:11,280
Speaker 6: You're nodding, yeah, yeah. I mean you've heard me riff

742
00:38:11,360 --> 00:38:16,119
on the FED before too, and there there's so this

743
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:19,280
is where I have been really hard on the FED.

744
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:24,239
And you'll see something around social media, ETF and the FED. Right.

745
00:38:26,159 --> 00:38:28,559
I am in favor of ending the FED. I'm not

746
00:38:28,840 --> 00:38:30,440
in favor of not having one.

747
00:38:31,039 --> 00:38:36,719
Speaker 4: So and it's they again, listeners, stay with me here.

748
00:38:37,599 --> 00:38:39,320
People are like Zach, you've begged on the FED.

749
00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:42,079
Speaker 6: Yes, because I think the way the FED is currently composed,

750
00:38:42,519 --> 00:38:45,760
and who they have. There's no practitioners on the FED, right,

751
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:50,440
meaning it literally Powell is and I actually think he's

752
00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:53,960
done a pretty decent job. I think he's been better

753
00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:57,599
than the last two FED heads, Yelling and Bernanky. But

754
00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:00,840
he is as close to you as you get as

755
00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:03,159
to a practitioner. The rest of these people, like Yellen.

756
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:06,400
Yellen's only seen the inside of a classroom. And the

757
00:39:06,559 --> 00:39:11,599
problem is is that these classically trained economists, when when

758
00:39:11,679 --> 00:39:17,159
they've only lived in academia, what economics has tried to

759
00:39:17,199 --> 00:39:19,159
build itself up as another science?

760
00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:22,840
Speaker 4: Yes, okay, but it's not. It's a pseudoscience, huh.

761
00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:27,199
Speaker 6: And and it's a pseudoscience because you the reason it's

762
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:32,719
a pseudoscience is because economies are probably the most complex

763
00:39:32,840 --> 00:39:38,719
systems on earth there, yeah, aside from our body. But

764
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:41,199
I mean, when you start looking at an economy, it's

765
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:47,199
pretty similar, honestly, because there are so many inputs and

766
00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:51,039
so many outputs, and and you see butterfly effects all

767
00:39:51,079 --> 00:39:54,000
over the place, right where a butterfly flaps his wings

768
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:56,119
over here, and all of a sudden, you gotta you know,

769
00:39:56,159 --> 00:39:57,760
you gotta famine.

770
00:39:57,840 --> 00:39:59,719
Speaker 4: You know, halfway across the world or whatever the case

771
00:39:59,719 --> 00:39:59,960
may be.

772
00:40:00,639 --> 00:40:06,480
Speaker 6: And so the other reason that economics has failed is

773
00:40:06,599 --> 00:40:09,960
because they've tried to make it a science. Meaning human

774
00:40:10,039 --> 00:40:14,679
behavior is such an integral part of the way economies function.

775
00:40:15,159 --> 00:40:18,079
And when you want to digitize everything, when you want

776
00:40:18,079 --> 00:40:22,519
to reduce everything down to a binary formula, yeah, right,

777
00:40:22,920 --> 00:40:25,079
there's going to be a lot of nuance and a

778
00:40:25,079 --> 00:40:28,400
lot of dynamism and a lot of different things that

779
00:40:28,519 --> 00:40:29,800
you're just gonna miss.

780
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:30,519
Speaker 4: Right.

781
00:40:30,599 --> 00:40:34,400
Speaker 6: For instance, one of the things that the FED used

782
00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:38,119
to do, and I think it was correct, was manage

783
00:40:38,239 --> 00:40:43,920
investor expectations and manage investor sentiment. The FED doesn't even

784
00:40:44,000 --> 00:40:47,440
attempt to do that anymore. When you're setting when you're

785
00:40:47,519 --> 00:40:52,000
setting monetary policy, and you're just staring at data and

786
00:40:52,079 --> 00:40:56,920
you don't even consider the environment, the mental frame, you know,

787
00:40:57,239 --> 00:41:00,360
the frame of mind that the market is in. Right,

788
00:41:00,519 --> 00:41:03,480
Is this a euphoric market? Is it a depressed market?

789
00:41:04,239 --> 00:41:07,960
When you don't even consider those things, yep, the soft

790
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:11,840
side of economics, it is literally impossible for you to

791
00:41:11,840 --> 00:41:15,599
come out with the right conclusion. And so I and

792
00:41:16,159 --> 00:41:18,159
I don't think that there is a way to perfect

793
00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:21,840
the science of economics. What I do think is the FOMC,

794
00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:28,719
the Federal Open Market Committee, which dictates monetary policy. You

795
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:32,199
have to have practitioners in there. You have to have

796
00:41:32,239 --> 00:41:35,480
people that have run funds, that have managed money, that

797
00:41:35,559 --> 00:41:38,559
have done it on an international basis, because the way

798
00:41:38,599 --> 00:41:42,880
we look at things is just very different. And when

799
00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:45,400
you look at a when you look at an economy

800
00:41:46,039 --> 00:41:52,480
that has become so interconnected with the with asset prices

801
00:41:52,639 --> 00:41:57,920
and the equity markets, I think it is absurd that

802
00:41:58,000 --> 00:42:06,000
you're setting monetary policy without experienced, knowledgeable and successful practitioners

803
00:42:06,599 --> 00:42:09,719
as a part of that process. Yep, right, I mean

804
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:12,199
because literally what these people are doing, and I don't

805
00:42:12,199 --> 00:42:14,559
think I don't think most people on the outside understand.

806
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:18,719
They've got these models that they have built, mathematical models,

807
00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:21,719
and they get a piece of data. Now they all

808
00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:24,800
know every one of their models has failed, right, so

809
00:42:25,039 --> 00:42:30,119
once and once a model has failed once, it's useless,

810
00:42:30,519 --> 00:42:33,199
right not to them, They're gonna make adjustments.

811
00:42:33,239 --> 00:42:36,599
Speaker 4: They trust their models, baby, they trust them. So.

812
00:42:37,519 --> 00:42:41,480
Speaker 6: But when you so, when all you're doing is you

813
00:42:41,519 --> 00:42:44,079
get a new data point. Maybe it's an unemployment number,

814
00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:46,840
maybe it's a maybe it's a survey, you know, maybe

815
00:42:46,840 --> 00:42:52,719
it's a the producer price Index survey or whatever, and

816
00:42:52,800 --> 00:42:55,599
you plug it into your formula and you look down

817
00:42:55,639 --> 00:42:58,360
whatever your formula kicks out. They throw that around like

818
00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:01,559
it's like it's gospel. Well, the rest of us look

819
00:43:01,639 --> 00:43:05,519
around and we go, boy, you guys have reduced this

820
00:43:05,519 --> 00:43:09,119
to a math equation. Why can't we do that anywhere

821
00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:10,559
else in the economy.

822
00:43:10,960 --> 00:43:13,199
Speaker 2: It's not just it's not just that.

823
00:43:14,239 --> 00:43:16,440
Speaker 1: And because I think this is an example that maybe

824
00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:19,360
people can understand, not that they can't understand yours.

825
00:43:19,360 --> 00:43:20,800
Speaker 2: I think you explain that very well. But this is

826
00:43:20,920 --> 00:43:25,679
super simple. They are theorists. They operate in the land

827
00:43:25,679 --> 00:43:26,119
of theory.

828
00:43:26,719 --> 00:43:29,239
Speaker 1: They think of things and then they write them down,

829
00:43:29,440 --> 00:43:32,599
and the math is all elegant. In the math, there's

830
00:43:32,920 --> 00:43:39,320
no one angry in the math, no one's worried. In

831
00:43:39,360 --> 00:43:39,800
the math.

832
00:43:39,840 --> 00:43:42,480
Speaker 2: There's no one saying, I actually don't like the color

833
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:43,800
of that new car.

834
00:43:44,880 --> 00:43:47,199
Speaker 1: Well, this should sell really well, yeah, but that color

835
00:43:47,320 --> 00:43:50,400
doesn't do it for me. And in the model, there's

836
00:43:50,480 --> 00:43:53,360
no Oh, by the way, did you know that Apple

837
00:43:53,440 --> 00:43:56,039
now is forcing you to have this health app on

838
00:43:56,079 --> 00:43:56,519
your phone?

839
00:43:56,880 --> 00:43:57,440
Speaker 4: Oh?

840
00:43:57,559 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 1: I don't want that, right, So none of those things

841
00:44:00,159 --> 00:44:05,440
exist in theory land. Theorists they very rarely live in

842
00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:08,239
the world they create. I had to sing at Microsoft

843
00:44:08,239 --> 00:44:12,800
once and a Windows guy I was at a meeting

844
00:44:13,079 --> 00:44:15,400
and I didn't remember why I was there, but I

845
00:44:15,440 --> 00:44:17,199
was sitting next to when I was doing some work

846
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:19,159
and he saw my computer.

847
00:44:19,239 --> 00:44:21,920
Speaker 2: Goes, pardon me, I go, I goes, what what software

848
00:44:21,920 --> 00:44:24,800
are using? I said Windows? He goes what version? I

849
00:44:24,800 --> 00:44:28,000
go the latest? Wait worst your.

850
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:32,440
Speaker 1: Startup menu and like can I see that? And I

851
00:44:32,480 --> 00:44:35,000
go like, hey, by the way, I'm Todd. Then he

852
00:44:35,079 --> 00:44:38,440
introduced himself, I'm with the Windows team, Like why do

853
00:44:38,480 --> 00:44:41,360
you have all these shortcuts down here? Like why don't

854
00:44:41,400 --> 00:44:43,360
you have these? Do you know that our start button

855
00:44:43,440 --> 00:44:46,360
has all these? Why have you drug those all down there?

856
00:44:46,400 --> 00:44:50,400
He's passed like why are you saving You're not. We

857
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:52,400
didn't set this up for you to save documents to

858
00:44:52,440 --> 00:44:55,000
your toolbar. Why are you saving documents in your toolbar?

859
00:44:55,039 --> 00:44:57,400
Because then he quit access to them. But you could

860
00:44:57,440 --> 00:44:58,239
put them in folders.

861
00:44:58,239 --> 00:44:58,800
Speaker 2: Do you know that?

862
00:45:00,079 --> 00:45:01,519
Speaker 1: And I said to him, I said, can I ss

863
00:45:01,519 --> 00:45:07,119
your question? What do you use your computer for? He goes, well,

864
00:45:07,280 --> 00:45:13,199
writing codes and emailing anything else?

865
00:45:13,440 --> 00:45:18,639
Speaker 2: Spreadsheets? Do you present? No? Do you use PowerPoint?

866
00:45:18,679 --> 00:45:18,760
Speaker 3: No?

867
00:45:20,559 --> 00:45:24,840
Speaker 2: Do you do videos. No, do you host meetings?

868
00:45:25,280 --> 00:45:25,360
Speaker 3: No?

869
00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:28,920
Speaker 1: Do you have direct reports? No, I'm and I see

870
00:45:28,920 --> 00:45:33,920
individual contributor, Zach. It blew his mind that someone was

871
00:45:34,039 --> 00:45:37,199
using the products, and I love the way my computer

872
00:45:37,280 --> 00:45:37,719
is set up.

873
00:45:37,880 --> 00:45:39,280
Speaker 2: It actually anchored him.

874
00:45:40,840 --> 00:45:41,360
Speaker 4: Yeah.

875
00:45:41,559 --> 00:45:45,400
Speaker 6: No, and to your point, another perfect example of how

876
00:45:46,440 --> 00:45:50,960
you cannot model human behavior on an economic basis mathematically. Yeah,

877
00:45:51,400 --> 00:45:54,199
years back, Star kissed the tuna company.

878
00:45:54,280 --> 00:45:55,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, okay, they threw it.

879
00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:57,559
Speaker 6: They threw a challenge out there to all their people

880
00:45:57,599 --> 00:46:00,840
and said, or to all their customers, and said, help

881
00:46:00,960 --> 00:46:04,400
us design a new can, okay for our tunic cans.

882
00:46:04,800 --> 00:46:07,199
Speaker 4: No, this is campbells soup. Excuse me, is Campbell stoop?

883
00:46:07,239 --> 00:46:07,880
It was Campbell soup.

884
00:46:07,920 --> 00:46:11,440
Speaker 6: This is years ago, and put a little note on

885
00:46:11,480 --> 00:46:13,840
the back of the can said, hey, so some kid

886
00:46:14,679 --> 00:46:17,599
went with his dad and he designed a new can

887
00:46:17,679 --> 00:46:20,119
for Campbell soup that was shaped more like a tunic can,

888
00:46:20,480 --> 00:46:23,760
and it reduced the amount of tin that they needed

889
00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:26,400
by like twenty or twenty five percent. Okay, and you

890
00:46:26,440 --> 00:46:28,880
get the same content in there just by going from

891
00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:32,400
being skinny and tall to flat and wide, and you

892
00:46:32,480 --> 00:46:37,440
get the same content. You saved twenty five percent on

893
00:46:37,440 --> 00:46:39,639
the amount of ten, nobody would buy it.

894
00:46:40,239 --> 00:46:41,119
Speaker 4: Nobody would touch it.

895
00:46:42,719 --> 00:46:47,519
Speaker 6: They they then discounted it, nobody would buy it.

896
00:46:47,760 --> 00:46:48,079
Speaker 4: Okay.

897
00:46:48,119 --> 00:46:51,679
Speaker 6: So when you when you're approaching this as an economist,

898
00:46:52,159 --> 00:46:55,639
you never would have considered that outcome. You just sat

899
00:46:55,679 --> 00:46:57,639
there and gone, Campbell's profit's going to go out by

900
00:46:57,679 --> 00:46:59,320
this amount. People are going to buy more of.

901
00:46:59,239 --> 00:47:01,239
Speaker 4: The soup because it's like, you're gonna do it because

902
00:47:01,280 --> 00:47:02,880
you're not factoring in human behavior.

903
00:47:03,119 --> 00:47:03,320
Speaker 3: Yep.

904
00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:07,920
Speaker 6: And that that therein lies the issue, right. The other

905
00:47:07,960 --> 00:47:10,800
thing is the other thing too, is that they because

906
00:47:10,840 --> 00:47:13,960
of that, they don't see fires until they're already going.

907
00:47:14,360 --> 00:47:18,880
Speaker 4: Right, we have a thing the FED. Well, there's a joke.

908
00:47:19,360 --> 00:47:23,280
Speaker 6: The Federal Reserve are arsonists and firemen at the same time. Right,

909
00:47:23,360 --> 00:47:25,519
they light the fire and then they show up a

910
00:47:25,559 --> 00:47:27,599
week later when it's blazing out of control and want

911
00:47:27,639 --> 00:47:30,519
to take credit for putting it out right, And and

912
00:47:30,719 --> 00:47:32,360
that's why because they're making decisions.

913
00:47:32,400 --> 00:47:33,440
Speaker 4: They're flying blind.

914
00:47:33,440 --> 00:47:35,519
Speaker 2: Right, or they're they're flying whiteboard.

915
00:47:36,440 --> 00:47:38,639
Speaker 4: Right. Yeah, that's probably the best way.

916
00:47:38,960 --> 00:47:42,559
Speaker 1: They're flying whiteboard. So we'll close off with one. It's

917
00:47:42,559 --> 00:47:44,519
a quick video that's gone pretty viral. I just want

918
00:47:44,559 --> 00:47:47,519
you to grade this kid's approach because he's having an

919
00:47:47,559 --> 00:47:52,400
economic discussion with what appears to be a liberal Beltway journalist,

920
00:47:52,519 --> 00:47:54,679
and this has gotten huge views on social media. We

921
00:47:54,719 --> 00:47:58,079
do that with Zachly Just a second, human behavior and economics.

922
00:47:58,320 --> 00:48:00,360
Let me say this about human behavior. In economic you

923
00:48:00,400 --> 00:48:03,320
probably do things by wrote I prefer to go to

924
00:48:03,360 --> 00:48:04,239
my same gas station.

925
00:48:04,760 --> 00:48:05,960
Speaker 2: I've noticed this about me.

926
00:48:06,920 --> 00:48:09,639
Speaker 1: I will actually wait if my favorite pump's not available

927
00:48:10,440 --> 00:48:13,280
because I got a favorite pump because it faces the

928
00:48:13,320 --> 00:48:15,159
freeway and it's easy access.

929
00:48:15,360 --> 00:48:17,480
Speaker 2: So I'm that way I have.

930
00:48:18,119 --> 00:48:20,639
Speaker 1: The other night, my wife was kind of to do

931
00:48:20,719 --> 00:48:23,840
some prep cooking for me, my fish and taters, and

932
00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:25,480
we sat down to eat together. So oop, it's just

933
00:48:25,519 --> 00:48:27,800
about having my fish on the wrong side of the

934
00:48:27,840 --> 00:48:31,280
plate because it's a prep cooking, you know, tupworth thing. Ooops,

935
00:48:31,280 --> 00:48:33,800
the fish has to go on the left. You probably

936
00:48:33,800 --> 00:48:36,599
do the same thing with some elemental products, for instance, soap.

937
00:48:36,639 --> 00:48:39,440
You probably don't even think about why you purchase the

938
00:48:39,440 --> 00:48:41,840
soap you purchase, so you probably don't think about the

939
00:48:41,920 --> 00:48:44,239
chemicals in it, or the fact that it might be

940
00:48:44,280 --> 00:48:46,679
made with slave labor in China, or the fact that

941
00:48:46,719 --> 00:48:49,480
the company that makes the soap may well, contribute to

942
00:48:49,519 --> 00:48:53,920
causes you can't stand, or that it does not support life.

943
00:48:54,719 --> 00:48:57,440
Alan Soaps is just the opposite. It is an artisan's soap,

944
00:48:57,480 --> 00:49:00,360
meaning made in incredibly small batches, so they have complete control.

945
00:49:00,519 --> 00:49:03,360
This family has done this for three generations. The whole

946
00:49:03,400 --> 00:49:06,079
purpose of the soap company is to provide you this excellent,

947
00:49:06,079 --> 00:49:11,440
all natural, no chemical so so. Alan, who's fourteen, has

948
00:49:11,440 --> 00:49:14,320
been through eighteen operations, is non verbal through autism, so

949
00:49:14,599 --> 00:49:18,360
he can work there. So Ian also impacted by autism,

950
00:49:18,440 --> 00:49:22,000
can work there. So Amy, who was neurotypical until her

951
00:49:22,079 --> 00:49:25,760
late teens early twenties, can work there. That's the mission.

952
00:49:26,039 --> 00:49:28,800
The soap makes it possible, so change your consumer behavior.

953
00:49:28,840 --> 00:49:31,400
Go to Alan Soaps dot com slash Todd's promo codes

954
00:49:31,400 --> 00:49:33,400
had to get tempercent off all their products. It's Alan

955
00:49:33,440 --> 00:49:37,320
Soaps dot com slash Todd so Zach. This is these

956
00:49:37,400 --> 00:49:39,599
kind of cool roundtables that are going on. And this

957
00:49:39,679 --> 00:49:43,519
kid man, he's had some monster sodas, he's had some caffeine,

958
00:49:43,559 --> 00:49:45,039
he's got some five minute energy.

959
00:49:44,800 --> 00:49:46,679
Speaker 2: God knows what else. He is jazz.

960
00:49:46,760 --> 00:49:49,440
Speaker 1: He's got the hat on backwards and you got the

961
00:49:49,639 --> 00:49:52,239
beltway dude sitting there and they argue economics, and this

962
00:49:52,320 --> 00:49:55,039
kid comes in mentally jacked.

963
00:49:56,480 --> 00:49:57,800
Speaker 8: Society. Where's the lower wages?

964
00:49:57,920 --> 00:49:58,239
Speaker 4: What do you mean?

965
00:49:58,239 --> 00:49:58,960
Speaker 9: Where's the lower wages?

966
00:49:58,960 --> 00:49:59,119
Speaker 3: Where?

967
00:49:59,599 --> 00:50:01,320
Speaker 8: Yes, you the basis for saying no lower wage.

968
00:50:01,360 --> 00:50:02,719
Speaker 9: Sure, so you can look at like the STEM industry,

969
00:50:02,719 --> 00:50:05,000
it's been in like a complete and total recession. There's

970
00:50:05,000 --> 00:50:07,280
been tons of studies, like from the Economic Policy Institute

971
00:50:07,280 --> 00:50:10,239
that shows that like companies like Tesla companies from like

972
00:50:10,280 --> 00:50:12,880
to Look on Valley, they engaged in mass firing of

973
00:50:12,920 --> 00:50:15,159
workers around thirty five thousand, but then they hired around

974
00:50:15,199 --> 00:50:17,360
twelve thousand h one b visus And it's kind of

975
00:50:17,400 --> 00:50:19,119
just like just standard economic thinking.

976
00:50:19,239 --> 00:50:19,760
Speaker 2: If you ain't not.

977
00:50:19,800 --> 00:50:22,519
Speaker 8: Standard economic, the vast majority of economists and economic studies

978
00:50:22,679 --> 00:50:25,519
suggest that there is a negligible, if if no, impact

979
00:50:25,519 --> 00:50:26,400
on wages over time.

980
00:50:26,440 --> 00:50:27,280
Speaker 2: That's not from immigrants.

981
00:50:27,320 --> 00:50:29,920
Speaker 8: In fact, your colleague mentioned earlier construction. There is actually

982
00:50:29,960 --> 00:50:33,239
evidence in construction, yes, but in some industries, in some

983
00:50:33,519 --> 00:50:36,039
areas there is an impact, but overall no. In fact,

984
00:50:36,039 --> 00:50:38,000
and that study from the National Bureau of Economic Research

985
00:50:38,119 --> 00:50:40,639
found that migrants since nineteen sixty five have raised wages

986
00:50:40,679 --> 00:50:41,480
and raised innovations.

987
00:50:41,719 --> 00:50:44,119
Speaker 10: That National Bureau for Economic Research no that's no. Hold,

988
00:50:44,119 --> 00:50:46,840
that's where you published studies. I didn't memorize the Yeah,

989
00:50:46,920 --> 00:50:49,559
I know you didn't, right, yeah, Gerhold on. The study

990
00:50:49,559 --> 00:50:51,320
you're talking about is from Giovanni Perry, and what he

991
00:50:51,360 --> 00:50:53,360
did is he didn't account for aggregation issues in order

992
00:50:53,360 --> 00:50:53,679
to a.

993
00:50:53,679 --> 00:50:54,639
Speaker 2: Vast majority of study.

994
00:50:54,719 --> 00:50:57,159
Speaker 9: Let me speak, please, yeah, thank you? Right, so listen,

995
00:50:57,320 --> 00:50:59,480
he didn't account for aggregation issues, right. And when you

996
00:50:59,519 --> 00:51:01,360
look at like the spatial approach was with all these

997
00:51:01,360 --> 00:51:03,480
economists use, you're not accounting for the fact that when

998
00:51:03,559 --> 00:51:06,199
immigrants come into an area, natives leave. If you look

999
00:51:06,199 --> 00:51:08,239
at an occupational approach where you look at look at

1000
00:51:08,239 --> 00:51:11,320
the specific firms and immigration's going into like Kim et al.

1001
00:51:11,400 --> 00:51:14,639
Tenty thirteen, did you find a net negative impact when

1002
00:51:14,639 --> 00:51:16,679
there's a ten percent increase of immigrations, you find around

1003
00:51:16,719 --> 00:51:18,840
one point five percent declining wages when it comes to

1004
00:51:18,880 --> 00:51:20,280
the specific occupations are going to.

1005
00:51:20,400 --> 00:51:22,440
Speaker 1: We didn't pull the part where the journalists are you

1006
00:51:22,519 --> 00:51:26,719
uncons I think the kid came locked and loaded, man

1007
00:51:26,760 --> 00:51:27,599
and caffeined up.

1008
00:51:28,519 --> 00:51:31,559
Speaker 6: Yeah, well, I look and this is the idioc you're

1009
00:51:31,599 --> 00:51:34,559
up against. Right, I'm so glad the kid could pull

1010
00:51:35,079 --> 00:51:39,760
the citation that reps shove them right down the guy's throats, right, because,

1011
00:51:39,840 --> 00:51:42,639
I mean, think how stupid that is. Right, You let

1012
00:51:42,760 --> 00:51:45,280
mass immigration from people that come to a country where

1013
00:51:45,320 --> 00:51:48,760
the cost of living is you know six you know what,

1014
00:51:49,320 --> 00:51:53,519
you know, ten percent, fifteen percent of what it is here, Okay,

1015
00:51:53,920 --> 00:51:57,039
and then you and you, and one of the reasons

1016
00:51:57,039 --> 00:51:58,719
you're hiring them is because you can pay them a

1017
00:51:58,760 --> 00:52:01,559
lower wage. And you're gonna tell me on aggregate that

1018
00:52:01,559 --> 00:52:02,800
that's not gonna pull down wages.

1019
00:52:02,960 --> 00:52:04,920
Speaker 4: It doesn't. And this is the idiocy.

1020
00:52:04,960 --> 00:52:08,159
Speaker 6: And this is the problem with soft sciences like economics

1021
00:52:08,519 --> 00:52:12,159
that have been most mostly taken over by one political party,

1022
00:52:12,480 --> 00:52:15,239
because all they've turned into is a loud speaker for

1023
00:52:15,320 --> 00:52:18,239
the for the economic nonsense coming out of that political faction.

1024
00:52:18,679 --> 00:52:22,519
It's not science, right, I mean a college kid configure.

1025
00:52:22,800 --> 00:52:23,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, we're gonna flood.

1026
00:52:23,800 --> 00:52:27,000
Speaker 6: We're gonna flood this country with fifteen percent immigration over

1027
00:52:27,039 --> 00:52:29,920
the space of twelve months, and your wages aren't gonna

1028
00:52:29,920 --> 00:52:32,960
go down. Con come on, right, it's the dumb He's

1029
00:52:32,960 --> 00:52:35,960
one hundred percent right. That journalist is a complete idiot,

1030
00:52:36,000 --> 00:52:37,519
which is probably why he's a journalist.

1031
00:52:39,320 --> 00:52:41,199
Speaker 1: There we go, Thank you for sharing what you really

1032
00:52:41,239 --> 00:52:44,440
feel Zach Abraham and think you can reach Zach at

1033
00:52:44,440 --> 00:52:45,840
No Your riskpodcast dot com.

1034
00:52:45,880 --> 00:52:47,880
Speaker 2: Thank you, my brother. Always the joy to have you here.

1035
00:52:49,079 --> 00:52:50,760
Speaker 4: Always fun to be here man, thanks for having me.

1036
00:52:50,840 --> 00:52:53,599
Speaker 2: This is a Todd Hermanshew. Please go, be well, be strong,

1037
00:52:53,760 --> 00:52:54,199
be kind.

1038
00:52:54,320 --> 00:52:58,199
Speaker 1: Remember the love of money is the roots of many evils.

1039
00:52:58,239 --> 00:53:00,199
Not money itself, but the love of money because can

1040
00:53:00,199 --> 00:53:02,400
separate you from God. So don't be separated. Walk in

1041
00:53:02,400 --> 00:53:03,159
the light of Christ.