WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.200 --> 00:00:02.480 Yeah, I was getting worried along with you. I mean this, 2 00:00:02.839 --> 00:00:07.519 We've rarely seen over the past year, almost two years, 3 00:00:08.400 --> 00:00:10.919 points in which this bright green line has gone down, 4 00:00:11.039 --> 00:00:12.720 and when it does, it usually. 5 00:00:12.400 --> 00:00:14.240 Takes the prices with it pretty quickly. 6 00:00:14.759 --> 00:00:17.120 But this was the turning point about three weeks ago 7 00:00:17.199 --> 00:00:20.719 where things quickly started to recover, and only a matter 8 00:00:20.760 --> 00:00:24.079 of time, especially right here when we bottomed out on 9 00:00:24.120 --> 00:00:24.800 March ninth. 10 00:00:29.600 --> 00:00:32.600 Hey, everybody, welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcast. I'm your host, 11 00:00:32.679 --> 00:00:35.640 Tony Edward, and joining me is Brian from Sentiment And 12 00:00:35.679 --> 00:00:37.359 as you all know, we are going to break down 13 00:00:37.399 --> 00:00:39.479 the metrics, run big point of e theorem, salon and 14 00:00:39.640 --> 00:00:42.399 XRP and what's happening in the markets. Guys, We're going 15 00:00:42.399 --> 00:00:44.479 to look at the data. Brian's great to see you. 16 00:00:45.079 --> 00:00:46.079 Good to see you, Tony. 17 00:00:46.159 --> 00:00:49.439 It's looking a lot better now compared to about a 18 00:00:49.479 --> 00:00:52.200 week and a half ago when things were pretty grim. 19 00:00:52.679 --> 00:00:55.679 But we've had a nice rebound crypto wide, and I'm 20 00:00:55.719 --> 00:00:56.560 excited to talk. 21 00:00:56.439 --> 00:00:59.560 Some numbers, so, Brian, isn't it funny? You know we've 22 00:00:59.560 --> 00:01:02.280 been on this theme of going against the herd. Right 23 00:01:02.320 --> 00:01:05.480 the herd they the market does the opposite of the herd, 24 00:01:05.560 --> 00:01:07.680 and we saw a lot of people were bearish right 25 00:01:07.879 --> 00:01:09.920 down in the dumps, depressed, and all of a sudden, 26 00:01:09.959 --> 00:01:12.239 the market is having a rally. Now, this could be 27 00:01:12.319 --> 00:01:15.959 just a relief rally, but again the market doing the 28 00:01:16.040 --> 00:01:18.920 opposite of the herd. At the sentiment, which we've been tracking. 29 00:01:19.519 --> 00:01:22.480 Exactly right, Yeah, we saw one and a half to 30 00:01:22.519 --> 00:01:24.239 two weeks ago we were seeing some of the most 31 00:01:24.319 --> 00:01:28.359 bearish signs from the crowd that we've seen in some time, 32 00:01:28.719 --> 00:01:31.640 even though the metrics on chain were looking fine. 33 00:01:31.439 --> 00:01:32.560 For most assets. 34 00:01:32.599 --> 00:01:35.200 It was just a matter of kind of waiting out 35 00:01:35.200 --> 00:01:38.239 this retrace that have been going on since the Trump 36 00:01:38.280 --> 00:01:42.120 inauguration back in mid January. So now that we've seen 37 00:01:42.159 --> 00:01:44.920 a bit of a recovery, the question is have we 38 00:01:45.040 --> 00:01:47.439 swung the other direction and is there now a bunch 39 00:01:47.480 --> 00:01:52.760 of euphoria and people talking about, you know, going all 40 00:01:52.799 --> 00:01:53.519 in once again. 41 00:01:54.519 --> 00:01:57.920 Absolutely, So let's start with bitcoin as we usually do, 42 00:01:58.040 --> 00:02:00.439 and start looking at this sentiment around point, at what 43 00:02:00.480 --> 00:02:03.359 people are saying, and this year we can use that 44 00:02:03.400 --> 00:02:06.200 as a measuring stick to get an idea how the 45 00:02:06.239 --> 00:02:08.960 crowd's feeling, and will look at whale activity and things 46 00:02:09.000 --> 00:02:09.319 like that. 47 00:02:09.960 --> 00:02:13.439 Totally Okay, so looking at the price action really quick, 48 00:02:13.479 --> 00:02:16.280 we do see that, you know, we have this new 49 00:02:16.319 --> 00:02:19.080 Trump meme coin that's kind of dwarfing the axis, but 50 00:02:19.639 --> 00:02:22.000 you can see all these tiny little green spots that 51 00:02:22.039 --> 00:02:25.400 are indicating that everything else is or most everything else 52 00:02:25.520 --> 00:02:28.360 is up money over the past week, Bitcoin up about 53 00:02:28.400 --> 00:02:31.560 seven and a half percent, Ethereum up ten percent. We've 54 00:02:31.599 --> 00:02:35.439 talked in previous episodes Tony about how Ethereum was one 55 00:02:35.439 --> 00:02:38.159 of the biggest underperformers of the past year or so 56 00:02:38.319 --> 00:02:41.000 and people were really starting to write it off and 57 00:02:41.319 --> 00:02:44.759 calling it overrated and Metallic doesn't know what he's doing, 58 00:02:44.759 --> 00:02:47.639 all sorts of narratives going around. But Ethereum has made 59 00:02:47.680 --> 00:02:52.919 a nice recovery, and in general we've seen a nice 60 00:02:52.960 --> 00:02:57.479 rebound among most large cap mid cap assets. The overall 61 00:02:57.520 --> 00:03:00.400 market cap is pretty even up only up at zero 62 00:03:00.400 --> 00:03:04.080 point one percent, but we do see trader volume overall 63 00:03:04.520 --> 00:03:08.080 up about nine percent. And if we move over to 64 00:03:08.639 --> 00:03:13.719 bitcoin specifically, we aren't seeing anything special going on. Utility wise, 65 00:03:13.800 --> 00:03:17.520 transaction volume is actually kind of declining over the past month. 66 00:03:18.080 --> 00:03:22.520 Active addresses circulation even those are down a tiny bit here. 67 00:03:23.000 --> 00:03:25.439 But what I do think is important is that we 68 00:03:25.479 --> 00:03:28.520 look at the average returns right now because this is 69 00:03:28.599 --> 00:03:31.520 reflective of what your peers are doing and how they're 70 00:03:31.560 --> 00:03:35.360 performing right now, to give us an idea of what 71 00:03:35.599 --> 00:03:39.599 an actual by low versus a sell high opportunity looks 72 00:03:39.680 --> 00:03:43.280 like right now. And obviously the big by low spot 73 00:03:43.319 --> 00:03:46.840 was about two weeks ago March tenth, we were hitting 74 00:03:46.879 --> 00:03:50.120 that seventy eight K level for a second time. And 75 00:03:50.199 --> 00:03:54.560 during this spot we saw that the average returns for 76 00:03:54.879 --> 00:03:57.240 while it's active over the past thirty days was down 77 00:03:57.280 --> 00:04:02.120 about seven percent or sorry, thirteen percent, and long term, 78 00:04:02.199 --> 00:04:04.960 while it's we're down about seven percent. So when you 79 00:04:05.000 --> 00:04:08.159 see both the short and long term well below zero, 80 00:04:09.000 --> 00:04:12.800 that's generally a great bytime and this was a perfect signal. 81 00:04:13.560 --> 00:04:17.439 Now we've run things back up where both the short 82 00:04:17.480 --> 00:04:20.199 and long term while it's on average are in the positive. 83 00:04:20.240 --> 00:04:23.879 Again not by much, not on a scary zone whatsoever. 84 00:04:24.000 --> 00:04:27.240 But whilst in the past thirty days are up about 85 00:04:27.279 --> 00:04:30.600 three and a half percent, past year they're up about 86 00:04:30.639 --> 00:04:34.000 four and a half percent. We've seen several times where 87 00:04:34.040 --> 00:04:37.000 they've both gotten way into double digits, and we aren't 88 00:04:37.040 --> 00:04:40.199 even close to that right now. So consider us kind 89 00:04:40.199 --> 00:04:43.920 of in a neutral territory right now, meaning you'd be 90 00:04:44.040 --> 00:04:46.920 buying or adding onto your position right now at a 91 00:04:46.959 --> 00:04:53.279 pretty neutral spot compared to the entire history of bitcoin existing. 92 00:04:54.560 --> 00:04:58.600 Interesting. So I know, seasonaley wise with the stock market 93 00:04:58.680 --> 00:05:02.680 and crypto, April made June are usually good months, and 94 00:05:02.720 --> 00:05:04.560 then you know you have the summer lull by and 95 00:05:04.759 --> 00:05:08.399 excuse me, sell and may and go way as usually saying. Right, So, 96 00:05:09.360 --> 00:05:11.959 nothing guaranteed here, But could this be the start of 97 00:05:12.040 --> 00:05:15.120 that next rally upwards? Right? Maybe bigcoin goes to new 98 00:05:15.199 --> 00:05:18.040 highs and then pulls all coins for the next phase 99 00:05:18.120 --> 00:05:20.439 up Like we had the run up in Q four, 100 00:05:20.920 --> 00:05:23.600 we had the correction in Q one, and now come 101 00:05:23.680 --> 00:05:24.879 Q two is the next run up? 102 00:05:25.680 --> 00:05:26.319 I could see it. 103 00:05:26.439 --> 00:05:28.800 Yeah, I mean seasonality I always take with a grain 104 00:05:28.879 --> 00:05:31.600 of salt because I just don't think, even with crypto 105 00:05:31.639 --> 00:05:34.480 existing for about sixteen years, I don't think we have 106 00:05:34.600 --> 00:05:38.920 nearly enough of a sample size to deduce that these 107 00:05:38.959 --> 00:05:41.079 months are always good. These months are always bad. There's 108 00:05:41.120 --> 00:05:45.600 been lots of a lot of coincidences and circumstances that 109 00:05:45.639 --> 00:05:49.319 have made like November an amazing month for crypto and 110 00:05:49.800 --> 00:05:53.000 January not so good of a month. But generally the 111 00:05:53.040 --> 00:05:55.600 start of each quarter. You know, there's there's some arguments 112 00:05:55.759 --> 00:06:03.319 that there's some extra capital being put in every January, April, July, 113 00:06:03.600 --> 00:06:09.439 and October and that can have positive impacts on prices. 114 00:06:09.519 --> 00:06:13.800 And we're about what seven six days away from April 115 00:06:13.839 --> 00:06:17.800 first hitting, and that means, you know, we have new 116 00:06:18.600 --> 00:06:22.360 whales and large capital investors injecting some money, shuffling their 117 00:06:22.399 --> 00:06:25.079 money around things like that. So I could see it, 118 00:06:25.319 --> 00:06:30.759 for sure, but from a raw math perspective, I like 119 00:06:30.839 --> 00:06:34.199 to just see, you know, how how good are investors 120 00:06:34.279 --> 00:06:38.879 doing with their average portfolios, regardless of the timing of 121 00:06:38.920 --> 00:06:41.600 the month, or the week or the year. And this 122 00:06:41.759 --> 00:06:45.519 shows that we're just slightly above water right now when 123 00:06:45.560 --> 00:06:49.439 looking at other traders and how they've been profiting as 124 00:06:49.480 --> 00:06:49.839 of late. 125 00:06:50.600 --> 00:06:52.959 Yeah, for sure, And great point on the seasonality, because 126 00:06:53.120 --> 00:06:55.279 there are no guarantees and it doesn't mean that past 127 00:06:55.360 --> 00:06:58.519 performance is an indicator of future and that it must 128 00:06:58.600 --> 00:07:01.879 play out that way. But as you say, though, we 129 00:07:02.240 --> 00:07:05.199 look at the different pieces of the puzzle so to speak, 130 00:07:05.199 --> 00:07:08.240 to make sure our thesis is as close to accurate 131 00:07:08.240 --> 00:07:10.439 as possible, and using the data is of course a 132 00:07:10.519 --> 00:07:14.319 strong indicator. So you mentioned whales or you may have 133 00:07:14.319 --> 00:07:16.160 some other data here before we look at whales. 134 00:07:16.959 --> 00:07:19.959 Yeah, well, I just wanted to mention funding rate actually 135 00:07:20.079 --> 00:07:25.079 looks pretty healthy right now, especially on Binance. There's a 136 00:07:25.120 --> 00:07:28.879 healthy amount of shorting that are being sprinkled in here 137 00:07:29.399 --> 00:07:32.240 as the funding rate data comes out. Ever since March hit, 138 00:07:32.800 --> 00:07:36.920 we were getting quite a bit of bias toward people 139 00:07:36.959 --> 00:07:42.360 trying to profit off of Bitcoin dropping in value, and 140 00:07:42.439 --> 00:07:45.920 that usually is a good thing if you're bullish, because 141 00:07:47.000 --> 00:07:54.160 whatever direction traders are tending to skew it, exchanges are 142 00:07:54.480 --> 00:07:58.680 constantly looking to find ways to liquidate those. 143 00:08:00.079 --> 00:08:00.600 Biases. 144 00:08:00.800 --> 00:08:03.439 So when we're super long, like we were back here 145 00:08:03.480 --> 00:08:07.519 in mid January as Trump was getting inaugurated, those longs 146 00:08:07.519 --> 00:08:10.560 got liquidated and sent prices way down, and it just 147 00:08:10.600 --> 00:08:15.120 continued down with the momentum and large capital investors taking 148 00:08:15.120 --> 00:08:18.720 some profit. And then we got here in the first 149 00:08:18.720 --> 00:08:21.439 week of March and suddenly there's a bunch of shorts 150 00:08:21.439 --> 00:08:25.319 getting liquidated. It temporarily sent prices up, and we've kind 151 00:08:25.360 --> 00:08:28.759 of ranged ever since. And we were correlated with the 152 00:08:28.839 --> 00:08:30.920 S and P five hundred, which I'll get to later 153 00:08:30.959 --> 00:08:34.679 in the call. So right now, yeah, we're seeing a 154 00:08:34.679 --> 00:08:37.759 little bit of shorting right there. And that's a good 155 00:08:37.799 --> 00:08:40.039 sign because we kind of bounced right off of that 156 00:08:40.240 --> 00:08:42.679 red bar and have been going up a little bit 157 00:08:42.679 --> 00:08:45.759 ever since, back up above eighty eight k for the 158 00:08:45.759 --> 00:08:49.240 first time in about a little over two weeks. 159 00:08:50.919 --> 00:08:52.960 And then I know, usually it gets a point when 160 00:08:53.000 --> 00:08:55.720 the shorts build up or thelongs build up, right, there's 161 00:08:55.759 --> 00:09:01.120 usually a reversal liquidation. It's funny, exact, and it's so 162 00:09:01.159 --> 00:09:03.840 good to like look at this data so you can see, 163 00:09:03.879 --> 00:09:06.240 oh wow, there's a build up of a ton of shorts. 164 00:09:06.240 --> 00:09:09.080 Maybe there's your shorts squeeze coming up if other factors align, 165 00:09:09.440 --> 00:09:13.559 and likewise, you know, there's a lot of lungs, you 166 00:09:13.600 --> 00:09:16.720 know what might be coming. As we saw kind of 167 00:09:16.759 --> 00:09:19.879 like in January. Right in February, a lot of longs liquidated. 168 00:09:20.840 --> 00:09:21.840 That's exactly right. 169 00:09:21.919 --> 00:09:25.519 So with shorts being sprinkled in, we're hoping that they 170 00:09:25.559 --> 00:09:31.399 continue to contribute to the positive price momentum we've been seeing. 171 00:09:32.320 --> 00:09:35.480 Now on the whale side of things, we're seeing plenty 172 00:09:35.639 --> 00:09:39.679 of whale transactions still going on. There has been a 173 00:09:39.679 --> 00:09:42.759 decline since the end of February, but we do see 174 00:09:42.759 --> 00:09:45.879 this uptick that just happened a couple days ago, and 175 00:09:45.960 --> 00:09:48.759 this appeared to be accumulation. And if we take a 176 00:09:48.799 --> 00:09:51.080 look at this chart, which we've gone over in most 177 00:09:51.120 --> 00:09:54.600 of our shows, Tony, we do see that the bright 178 00:09:54.639 --> 00:09:58.080 green line here is moving up. This is representing the 179 00:09:58.120 --> 00:10:01.240 amount of bitcoin held by wallet's with at least ten 180 00:10:01.320 --> 00:10:05.840 BTC in them. So Ever, since this little profit take 181 00:10:05.879 --> 00:10:10.200 that we saw from mid February to about early March, 182 00:10:10.639 --> 00:10:15.559 they've actually accumulated pretty well, adding about a hundred no sorry, 183 00:10:15.559 --> 00:10:21.759 e two hundred eleven btc over the past three weeks. Meanwhile, 184 00:10:21.840 --> 00:10:25.679 the you know some people say, especially when you look 185 00:10:25.720 --> 00:10:28.559 at wallets that hold over ten thousand bitcoin, which is 186 00:10:28.559 --> 00:10:32.440 a pretty unfathomable number, those are mostly held by exchanges, 187 00:10:32.960 --> 00:10:38.840 and we've seen that the wallets specifically holding between ten 188 00:10:38.879 --> 00:10:42.440 to ten thousand, which is excluding some of those huge 189 00:10:42.440 --> 00:10:45.639 exchange wallets. In this bright green line, even this dark 190 00:10:45.679 --> 00:10:48.879 green line is starting to rise again, representing the ten 191 00:10:48.919 --> 00:10:52.000 to ten k wallets. And right when we started to 192 00:10:52.279 --> 00:10:55.720 really get momentum and go into the high eighty eighty ks, 193 00:10:56.120 --> 00:11:00.480 it was boosted by the fact that these middle tier 194 00:11:00.799 --> 00:11:02.840 ten to ten k. While it's we're really starting to 195 00:11:02.879 --> 00:11:05.879 accumulate once again and they're holding the most they have 196 00:11:05.919 --> 00:11:07.120 in about three weeks. 197 00:11:08.399 --> 00:11:10.320 Yeah, you know, Brian, I was looking at this chart 198 00:11:10.720 --> 00:11:13.120 over the past month, and I have to say I 199 00:11:13.200 --> 00:11:15.360 was getting a bit nervous because I'm like, are these 200 00:11:15.399 --> 00:11:16.320 whales done? 201 00:11:16.440 --> 00:11:16.600 Right? 202 00:11:16.720 --> 00:11:19.879 Is this the end of it? Because if they this 203 00:11:19.919 --> 00:11:24.240 is a true down trend of them not accumulating anymore, 204 00:11:25.000 --> 00:11:27.240 I need to start panicing. Well not I shouldn't say panic, 205 00:11:27.279 --> 00:11:30.759 but I need to start prepping for Okay, something's different, 206 00:11:30.919 --> 00:11:33.559 but it's good to see some recovery here. That's a 207 00:11:33.600 --> 00:11:36.919 healthy sign. And it wasn't a true down trend exactly. 208 00:11:37.039 --> 00:11:39.320 Yeah, I was getting worried along with you. I mean this, 209 00:11:39.720 --> 00:11:44.360 We've rarely seen, over the past year, almost two years, 210 00:11:45.240 --> 00:11:47.799 points in which this bright green line has gone down, 211 00:11:47.919 --> 00:11:50.240 and when it does, it usually takes the prices with 212 00:11:50.279 --> 00:11:53.240 it pretty quickly. But this was the turning point about 213 00:11:53.279 --> 00:11:56.759 three weeks ago where things quickly started to recover and 214 00:11:56.919 --> 00:12:00.120 only a matter of time, especially right here when we 215 00:12:00.240 --> 00:12:03.120 bottomed out on March ninth. The fact that we had 216 00:12:03.240 --> 00:12:07.840 already been starting to move back up even though the 217 00:12:07.879 --> 00:12:12.399 price was doing, you know, from that exact day doing 218 00:12:12.440 --> 00:12:15.000 that right, That's called a bullish divergence. When you see 219 00:12:15.000 --> 00:12:18.039 whales moving up but prices moving down, that should be 220 00:12:18.080 --> 00:12:22.120 a signal to you that maybe Bitcoin is starting to 221 00:12:22.159 --> 00:12:25.799 get a bit undervalued compared to what the largest key 222 00:12:25.840 --> 00:12:29.320 stakeholders are trying to do with the big picture. 223 00:12:30.320 --> 00:12:33.840 Oh yeah, for sure, great insight. And then on the 224 00:12:33.879 --> 00:12:36.759 stable coin front, what are you seeing as far as 225 00:12:36.840 --> 00:12:38.919 tether supply on exchanges? 226 00:12:39.519 --> 00:12:43.240 Mm hm, so tether is still moving down. Not a 227 00:12:43.279 --> 00:12:46.759 lot of dry powder on exchanges compared to what we 228 00:12:46.759 --> 00:12:49.679 were seeing about a month month and a half ago, 229 00:12:50.559 --> 00:12:54.519 there was about if we're talking specifically about the top 230 00:12:54.559 --> 00:12:58.799 exchange wallets, basically the top ten, there was about forty 231 00:12:58.799 --> 00:13:02.120 five point four nine billion dollars worth of tether during 232 00:13:02.159 --> 00:13:05.039 the first week of February. Now there's forty point sixty 233 00:13:05.120 --> 00:13:09.799 four so pretty sizable drop. Us D coin does look 234 00:13:09.799 --> 00:13:13.799 a little bit better. It actually really jumped up here 235 00:13:14.440 --> 00:13:17.879 on March twenty first, twenty second, twenty third before coming 236 00:13:17.919 --> 00:13:20.440 back down. But we'd still like to see some improvement 237 00:13:20.559 --> 00:13:24.200 from the stable coins, especially the top wallets and how 238 00:13:24.240 --> 00:13:28.080 much they're holding, because that liquidity can really help fuel 239 00:13:28.200 --> 00:13:30.559 a lot of rallies because of how much buying power 240 00:13:30.919 --> 00:13:32.000 there is on exchanges. 241 00:13:33.320 --> 00:13:38.879 Interesting. I know there's like people track I think tether 242 00:13:39.000 --> 00:13:44.440 dominance and even bitcoin dominance, so it's fascinating. You know, 243 00:13:44.679 --> 00:13:48.440 I personally don't know. I'm not as well educated as 244 00:13:48.440 --> 00:13:50.960 some analysts, you know, as far as the correlation. I know, 245 00:13:51.039 --> 00:13:54.440 it's like, if that supply starts to pretty much break down, 246 00:13:54.440 --> 00:13:58.039 it means more coins are theoretically going into biitcoin in 247 00:13:58.080 --> 00:14:01.639 the crypto market. But you know, I'm not fully you know, 248 00:14:01.759 --> 00:14:03.720 I can say that with one hundred percent confidence because 249 00:14:03.720 --> 00:14:04.840 I'm not fully educated on that. 250 00:14:05.879 --> 00:14:08.679 Yeah, it's it's a bit of a loose correlation. I 251 00:14:08.720 --> 00:14:13.440 do believe there's something there, but I certainly don't recommend 252 00:14:13.519 --> 00:14:18.000 trading just based on you know, the the raw amount 253 00:14:18.039 --> 00:14:20.600 of tether versus the raw amount of bitcoin on a 254 00:14:20.639 --> 00:14:24.279 particular exchange. I think that's you know, exchanges have their 255 00:14:24.320 --> 00:14:32.919 own functions and reasonings for adding more stables for liquidity 256 00:14:32.919 --> 00:14:36.039 purpose or taking some away, and you have to take 257 00:14:36.080 --> 00:14:38.279 it with a bit of a grain of salt. In general, 258 00:14:38.320 --> 00:14:41.879 it's still good to see, you know, rising tether on 259 00:14:41.960 --> 00:14:45.000 exchanges over time, but if it falls like this, it 260 00:14:45.039 --> 00:14:48.559 isn't necessarily a sign that like there won't be enough 261 00:14:48.600 --> 00:14:52.919 stable coins for people to you know, use for their 262 00:14:53.039 --> 00:14:56.879 their trades and whatever they're requesting, especially when a lot 263 00:14:56.919 --> 00:14:59.279 of these are coming from like the top exchanges like 264 00:14:59.399 --> 00:15:04.879 Finance or Tether and USD coinbase for USD coin. 265 00:15:05.960 --> 00:15:08.720 Yeah, great point, because I believe it or not for 266 00:15:08.799 --> 00:15:12.000 some who are listening, tell and stable coins are used 267 00:15:12.000 --> 00:15:14.440 for payments and you know other things people used to 268 00:15:14.480 --> 00:15:18.559 get yield and so forth, and then the sometimes burning 269 00:15:19.080 --> 00:15:22.080 right depending on what the individual or institution is doing, 270 00:15:22.159 --> 00:15:28.840 so exactly. Yeah. Interesting, Any other bitcoin metrics you want 271 00:15:28.879 --> 00:15:29.159 to share? 272 00:15:30.600 --> 00:15:33.919 There was one other one that I think is worth watching, 273 00:15:33.960 --> 00:15:37.320 and that's the total amount of holders. We do see 274 00:15:37.320 --> 00:15:43.000 that retail traders. Since February February eighteenth, roughly five weeks ago, 275 00:15:43.840 --> 00:15:47.720 they have gone up by about three hundred and seventy 276 00:15:47.720 --> 00:15:52.559 four thousand non empty wallets, So they're even despite all 277 00:15:52.559 --> 00:15:55.080 of this volatility that's happened in the past five weeks, 278 00:15:55.799 --> 00:16:00.879 the overall network appears to be growing, which is overall 279 00:16:01.679 --> 00:16:05.600 a pretty good sign. It does indicate there isn't a 280 00:16:05.639 --> 00:16:09.039 ton of fear. I'd love to see if you know 281 00:16:09.200 --> 00:16:14.279 a bunch of retail traders really thinking that prices are 282 00:16:14.279 --> 00:16:16.399 going to go down because that's when we typically see 283 00:16:16.399 --> 00:16:20.000 the biggest bull rallies. But the network does seem to 284 00:16:20.000 --> 00:16:24.200 be growing rather quickly, and especially a couple days ago 285 00:16:24.440 --> 00:16:26.759 when we were at fifty four point eight million non 286 00:16:26.759 --> 00:16:31.080 empty wallets. If we go back in time, we're pretty 287 00:16:31.120 --> 00:16:33.919 much at the highest point ever in terms of non 288 00:16:33.919 --> 00:16:37.279 empty wallets. You can see it really really grew from 289 00:16:37.399 --> 00:16:39.679 twenty nineteen to twenty four and then there was this 290 00:16:40.159 --> 00:16:44.639 interesting flat line that's kind of happened ever since June 291 00:16:44.639 --> 00:16:47.919 of last year. So the growth is a little bit slower, 292 00:16:48.480 --> 00:16:51.320 and you can see during this rally when the growth 293 00:16:51.399 --> 00:16:54.720 was slowing, this was from a lot of retail traders 294 00:16:54.799 --> 00:16:57.559 just taking profit on the way up, not thinking we'd 295 00:16:57.600 --> 00:17:00.279 go all the way up to you know, one oh nine, hey, 296 00:17:00.320 --> 00:17:06.079 like we did. But now that prices of retraced, we're 297 00:17:06.119 --> 00:17:08.880 seeing we're still seeing the network grow, but on a 298 00:17:08.920 --> 00:17:12.799 slower rate compared to what we saw, you know, three 299 00:17:12.880 --> 00:17:13.720 to five years ago. 300 00:17:15.079 --> 00:17:19.640 Interesting. All right, let's move to Ethereum and let's take 301 00:17:19.640 --> 00:17:21.319 a look at what it's happening with ETH. You know, 302 00:17:21.319 --> 00:17:24.519 there's been a lot of adoption news with folks building 303 00:17:24.519 --> 00:17:29.559 on ETH, but you know, ETH still continues to suffer 304 00:17:29.559 --> 00:17:31.680 from a price standpoint. I do think it will catch up, 305 00:17:31.759 --> 00:17:34.599 especially as staking is added to the ETF and much more. 306 00:17:34.640 --> 00:17:36.839 But you know what are you seeing on that front? 307 00:17:37.000 --> 00:17:39.200 Yeah, Ethereum is out a nice week. It's up about 308 00:17:39.240 --> 00:17:41.599 ten percent, as we saw over the last week. And 309 00:17:41.880 --> 00:17:45.079 even though utility doesn't appear to be anything special right 310 00:17:45.119 --> 00:17:50.240 now with transaction volume, active addresses, and circulation all going down, 311 00:17:51.640 --> 00:17:55.279 there are some good long term signs. Obviously because it's 312 00:17:55.279 --> 00:17:59.039 been such an underperformer over the past year. Waltz are 313 00:17:59.119 --> 00:18:03.000 still down on average about twenty nine percent. That's way 314 00:18:03.119 --> 00:18:06.319 below what we see for Bitcoin and Solana and XRP, 315 00:18:06.920 --> 00:18:11.960 so in terms of just a regression to the mean viewpoint, 316 00:18:12.599 --> 00:18:15.960 there's some argument that Etheroreum could be still one of 317 00:18:16.000 --> 00:18:21.599 the better bets for a bit of a rebound later 318 00:18:21.680 --> 00:18:25.160 in twenty twenty five, assuming that Bitcoin can start to 319 00:18:25.359 --> 00:18:28.960 really get its legs, and even the thirty day while 320 00:18:29.000 --> 00:18:32.519 ITTs are still down just slightly. So I like how 321 00:18:32.519 --> 00:18:36.240 the MVRV looks a lot for Ethereum in particular, this 322 00:18:36.400 --> 00:18:38.640 is one of the strongest bullish signals I'm seeing for 323 00:18:38.640 --> 00:18:43.359 it right now. And then also funding rate, plenty of 324 00:18:43.400 --> 00:18:45.799 shorts that are being sprinkled in here over the past 325 00:18:45.880 --> 00:18:49.039 couple weeks. We do see that we're a little closer 326 00:18:49.079 --> 00:18:53.839 to neutral normally or right now on finance, but look 327 00:18:53.960 --> 00:18:56.880 for you know, big short spikes like this as a 328 00:18:56.920 --> 00:19:01.519 good sign that liquidations can occur and prices really soaring 329 00:19:01.599 --> 00:19:06.079 quickly if the negativity starts to creep in again for 330 00:19:06.480 --> 00:19:07.759 the number two asset. 331 00:19:08.720 --> 00:19:12.440 Yeah for sure. And maybe you know, there could be 332 00:19:12.480 --> 00:19:15.200 a catalyst, like I've been hearing rumors from the SEC 333 00:19:15.519 --> 00:19:19.599 that you know, they may add staking in the etherem 334 00:19:19.599 --> 00:19:22.519 ets and that big players like Fidelity and others have 335 00:19:22.599 --> 00:19:25.119 been filing for that. So could that be a catalyst 336 00:19:25.240 --> 00:19:27.759 to send it up and you know, help it get 337 00:19:27.799 --> 00:19:32.079 some strength from a sentiment standpoint, maybe, but absolutely it's 338 00:19:32.079 --> 00:19:32.759 a fair point. 339 00:19:32.880 --> 00:19:38.759 Any any more ETF filings that get approved or ways 340 00:19:38.799 --> 00:19:43.000 for people to invest in ethereum outside of holding coins 341 00:19:43.039 --> 00:19:45.960 on chain, which a lot of people aren't comfortable with. 342 00:19:46.039 --> 00:19:49.400 And we all we have to accept that, you know 343 00:19:49.480 --> 00:19:54.400 that reality is is a thing that means that having 344 00:19:54.480 --> 00:19:58.079 ETFs is only going to help the cause for ethereum 345 00:19:58.640 --> 00:20:03.079 or the rumored you know x RP or Solana ETFs 346 00:20:03.119 --> 00:20:06.039 out there another handful of coins. To any of these 347 00:20:06.039 --> 00:20:09.319 coins that get approved ETFs, it's going only going to 348 00:20:09.359 --> 00:20:10.359 help the cause. 349 00:20:11.440 --> 00:20:14.400 Yeah, absolutely, let's take a look at Solana or unless 350 00:20:14.400 --> 00:20:16.039 there's other info here on. 351 00:20:16.079 --> 00:20:20.559 Eth nothing else on Ethereum. I just I continue to 352 00:20:22.160 --> 00:20:25.440 monitor the sentiment, which we can look at here. In fact, 353 00:20:25.480 --> 00:20:28.960 we can check out Etherium, Bitcoin and Solana and we'll 354 00:20:28.960 --> 00:20:32.440 do XRP two so all four of these sentiments for 355 00:20:32.599 --> 00:20:34.839 each of them can be found here on this chart. 356 00:20:35.640 --> 00:20:39.680 We're just measuring the overall level of positive comments according 357 00:20:39.680 --> 00:20:43.519 to our algorithm across social media versus the negative ones, 358 00:20:43.680 --> 00:20:47.880 and the ratio specifically between them as a good sign 359 00:20:47.960 --> 00:20:51.200 of greed versus fear. So we saw actually just about 360 00:20:51.200 --> 00:20:54.519 three months ago on Christmas, there was this huge, huge 361 00:20:54.599 --> 00:20:58.519 positive sentiment spike and it didn't All it did was 362 00:20:58.559 --> 00:21:03.000 really send prices down, which is normal. Meanwhile, when you 363 00:21:03.000 --> 00:21:06.000 see some of these negative spikes, it actually can be 364 00:21:06.039 --> 00:21:08.839 a good thing. Like right here on February tewod when 365 00:21:08.839 --> 00:21:15.240 we were bottoming out and seeing Ethereum at twenty five hundred, 366 00:21:15.799 --> 00:21:18.519 we saw a pretty decent bounce right after. It didn't 367 00:21:18.599 --> 00:21:21.720 last long, but you get the idea. This one as well. 368 00:21:21.799 --> 00:21:24.640 There was a bounce right after we really got negative, 369 00:21:25.599 --> 00:21:28.160 and now we've seen a few positive spikes. This one 370 00:21:28.200 --> 00:21:34.039 on March nineteenth was followed by a short retrace after 371 00:21:34.079 --> 00:21:36.680 people got a bit too excited, and then another one 372 00:21:37.119 --> 00:21:41.000 just yesterday March twenty fourth, very minor retrace, and now 373 00:21:41.000 --> 00:21:44.799 we're kind of back in neutral territory switching to bitcoin. 374 00:21:46.240 --> 00:21:49.039 It actually looks quite positive right now, makes sense. We're 375 00:21:49.079 --> 00:21:51.440 back at eighty eight k for the first time in 376 00:21:51.599 --> 00:21:54.680 what about six weeks here, I'm sorry, not six weeks. 377 00:21:54.680 --> 00:21:58.440 I'm reading it wrong, about three weeks or so ago, 378 00:21:58.759 --> 00:22:03.400 and this positive sentiment is the highest in six weeks, 379 00:22:03.440 --> 00:22:06.279 indicating that we might be starting to see a little 380 00:22:06.279 --> 00:22:09.240 too much fomo. This is kind of a short term 381 00:22:09.240 --> 00:22:14.519 reaction to seeing finally some positive momentum toward bitcoin. It 382 00:22:14.559 --> 00:22:17.799 doesn't mean bitcoin can't continue climbing into the ninety k's again, 383 00:22:17.799 --> 00:22:20.839 which many people are hoping for, but the amount of 384 00:22:20.880 --> 00:22:23.680 retail fomo looks a bit too high from just a 385 00:22:23.799 --> 00:22:25.480 short swing trader perspective. 386 00:22:25.880 --> 00:22:28.880 It's just fascinating. I know, I say this like almost recording. 387 00:22:28.880 --> 00:22:31.200 It's just fascinating to look at this data and watch 388 00:22:31.200 --> 00:22:34.039 it play out for these assets, and understanding the human 389 00:22:34.079 --> 00:22:38.920 psychology that's behind it. Yeah, maybe I love looking at 390 00:22:39.000 --> 00:22:42.240 data and patterns and pattern recognition. It's so fascinating to me. 391 00:22:42.920 --> 00:22:44.960 It is a lot of fun when you really start 392 00:22:45.000 --> 00:22:51.799 to understand with every price fluctuation, how it really skews 393 00:22:51.839 --> 00:22:56.480 people's minds toward a certain expectation just from like a 394 00:22:56.519 --> 00:22:59.640 simple price swing. You know, we were so negative just 395 00:22:59.680 --> 00:23:01.480 a few weeks ago, and then all of a sudden, 396 00:23:02.160 --> 00:23:04.759 we get to eighty AK and suddenly people think bitcoin's 397 00:23:04.759 --> 00:23:05.720 a great investment again. 398 00:23:05.799 --> 00:23:07.400 It's it's just so fascinating. 399 00:23:08.119 --> 00:23:09.880 I don't know if you've seen that meme where there's 400 00:23:09.920 --> 00:23:13.079 two guys at a booth right, and then the herd 401 00:23:13.119 --> 00:23:15.119