Speaker 1: Yeah, I was getting worried along with you. I mean this,
Speaker 1: We've rarely seen over the past year, almost two years,
Speaker 1: points in which this bright green line has gone down,
Speaker 1: and when it does, it usually.
Speaker 2: Takes the prices with it pretty quickly.
Speaker 1: But this was the turning point about three weeks ago
Speaker 1: where things quickly started to recover, and only a matter
Speaker 1: of time, especially right here when we bottomed out on
Speaker 1: March ninth.
Speaker 3: Hey, everybody, welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcast. I'm your host,
Speaker 3: Tony Edward, and joining me is Brian from Sentiment And
Speaker 3: as you all know, we are going to break down
Speaker 3: the metrics, run big point of e theorem, salon and
Speaker 3: XRP and what's happening in the markets. Guys, We're going
Speaker 3: to look at the data. Brian's great to see you.
Speaker 2: Good to see you, Tony.
Speaker 1: It's looking a lot better now compared to about a
Speaker 1: week and a half ago when things were pretty grim.
Speaker 1: But we've had a nice rebound crypto wide, and I'm
Speaker 1: excited to talk.
Speaker 3: Some numbers, so, Brian, isn't it funny? You know we've
Speaker 3: been on this theme of going against the herd. Right
Speaker 3: the herd they the market does the opposite of the herd,
Speaker 3: and we saw a lot of people were bearish right
Speaker 3: down in the dumps, depressed, and all of a sudden,
Speaker 3: the market is having a rally. Now, this could be
Speaker 3: just a relief rally, but again the market doing the
Speaker 3: opposite of the herd. At the sentiment, which we've been tracking.
Speaker 1: Exactly right, Yeah, we saw one and a half to
Speaker 1: two weeks ago we were seeing some of the most
Speaker 1: bearish signs from the crowd that we've seen in some time,
Speaker 1: even though the metrics on chain were looking fine.
Speaker 2: For most assets.
Speaker 1: It was just a matter of kind of waiting out
Speaker 1: this retrace that have been going on since the Trump
Speaker 1: inauguration back in mid January. So now that we've seen
Speaker 1: a bit of a recovery, the question is have we
Speaker 1: swung the other direction and is there now a bunch
Speaker 1: of euphoria and people talking about, you know, going all
Speaker 1: in once again.
Speaker 3: Absolutely, So let's start with bitcoin as we usually do,
Speaker 3: and start looking at this sentiment around point, at what
Speaker 3: people are saying, and this year we can use that
Speaker 3: as a measuring stick to get an idea how the
Speaker 3: crowd's feeling, and will look at whale activity and things
Speaker 3: like that.
Speaker 1: Totally Okay, so looking at the price action really quick,
Speaker 1: we do see that, you know, we have this new
Speaker 1: Trump meme coin that's kind of dwarfing the axis, but
Speaker 1: you can see all these tiny little green spots that
Speaker 1: are indicating that everything else is or most everything else
Speaker 1: is up money over the past week, Bitcoin up about
Speaker 1: seven and a half percent, Ethereum up ten percent. We've
Speaker 1: talked in previous episodes Tony about how Ethereum was one
Speaker 1: of the biggest underperformers of the past year or so
Speaker 1: and people were really starting to write it off and
Speaker 1: calling it overrated and Metallic doesn't know what he's doing,
Speaker 1: all sorts of narratives going around. But Ethereum has made
Speaker 1: a nice recovery, and in general we've seen a nice
Speaker 1: rebound among most large cap mid cap assets. The overall
Speaker 1: market cap is pretty even up only up at zero
Speaker 1: point one percent, but we do see trader volume overall
Speaker 1: up about nine percent. And if we move over to
Speaker 1: bitcoin specifically, we aren't seeing anything special going on. Utility wise,
Speaker 1: transaction volume is actually kind of declining over the past month.
Speaker 1: Active addresses circulation even those are down a tiny bit here.
Speaker 1: But what I do think is important is that we
Speaker 1: look at the average returns right now because this is
Speaker 1: reflective of what your peers are doing and how they're
Speaker 1: performing right now, to give us an idea of what
Speaker 1: an actual by low versus a sell high opportunity looks
Speaker 1: like right now. And obviously the big by low spot
Speaker 1: was about two weeks ago March tenth, we were hitting
Speaker 1: that seventy eight K level for a second time. And
Speaker 1: during this spot we saw that the average returns for
Speaker 1: while it's active over the past thirty days was down
Speaker 1: about seven percent or sorry, thirteen percent, and long term,
Speaker 1: while it's we're down about seven percent. So when you
Speaker 1: see both the short and long term well below zero,
Speaker 1: that's generally a great bytime and this was a perfect signal.
Speaker 1: Now we've run things back up where both the short
Speaker 1: and long term while it's on average are in the positive.
Speaker 1: Again not by much, not on a scary zone whatsoever.
Speaker 1: But whilst in the past thirty days are up about
Speaker 1: three and a half percent, past year they're up about
Speaker 1: four and a half percent. We've seen several times where
Speaker 1: they've both gotten way into double digits, and we aren't
Speaker 1: even close to that right now. So consider us kind
Speaker 1: of in a neutral territory right now, meaning you'd be
Speaker 1: buying or adding onto your position right now at a
Speaker 1: pretty neutral spot compared to the entire history of bitcoin existing.
Speaker 3: Interesting. So I know, seasonaley wise with the stock market
Speaker 3: and crypto, April made June are usually good months, and
Speaker 3: then you know you have the summer lull by and
Speaker 3: excuse me, sell and may and go way as usually saying. Right, So,
Speaker 3: nothing guaranteed here, But could this be the start of
Speaker 3: that next rally upwards? Right? Maybe bigcoin goes to new
Speaker 3: highs and then pulls all coins for the next phase
Speaker 3: up Like we had the run up in Q four,
Speaker 3: we had the correction in Q one, and now come
Speaker 3: Q two is the next run up?
Speaker 2: I could see it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean seasonality I always take with a grain
Speaker 1: of salt because I just don't think, even with crypto
Speaker 1: existing for about sixteen years, I don't think we have
Speaker 1: nearly enough of a sample size to deduce that these
Speaker 1: months are always good. These months are always bad. There's
Speaker 1: been lots of a lot of coincidences and circumstances that
Speaker 1: have made like November an amazing month for crypto and
Speaker 1: January not so good of a month. But generally the
Speaker 1: start of each quarter. You know, there's there's some arguments
Speaker 1: that there's some extra capital being put in every January, April, July,
Speaker 1: and October and that can have positive impacts on prices.
Speaker 1: And we're about what seven six days away from April
Speaker 1: first hitting, and that means, you know, we have new
Speaker 1: whales and large capital investors injecting some money, shuffling their
Speaker 1: money around things like that. So I could see it,
Speaker 1: for sure, but from a raw math perspective, I like
Speaker 1: to just see, you know, how how good are investors
Speaker 1: doing with their average portfolios, regardless of the timing of
Speaker 1: the month, or the week or the year. And this
Speaker 1: shows that we're just slightly above water right now when
Speaker 1: looking at other traders and how they've been profiting as
Speaker 1: of late.
Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure, And great point on the seasonality, because
Speaker 3: there are no guarantees and it doesn't mean that past
Speaker 3: performance is an indicator of future and that it must
Speaker 3: play out that way. But as you say, though, we
Speaker 3: look at the different pieces of the puzzle so to speak,
Speaker 3: to make sure our thesis is as close to accurate
Speaker 3: as possible, and using the data is of course a
Speaker 3: strong indicator. So you mentioned whales or you may have
Speaker 3: some other data here before we look at whales.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I just wanted to mention funding rate actually
Speaker 1: looks pretty healthy right now, especially on Binance. There's a
Speaker 1: healthy amount of shorting that are being sprinkled in here
Speaker 1: as the funding rate data comes out. Ever since March hit,
Speaker 1: we were getting quite a bit of bias toward people
Speaker 1: trying to profit off of Bitcoin dropping in value, and
Speaker 1: that usually is a good thing if you're bullish, because
Speaker 1: whatever direction traders are tending to skew it, exchanges are
Speaker 1: constantly looking to find ways to liquidate those.
Speaker 2: Biases.
Speaker 1: So when we're super long, like we were back here
Speaker 1: in mid January as Trump was getting inaugurated, those longs
Speaker 1: got liquidated and sent prices way down, and it just
Speaker 1: continued down with the momentum and large capital investors taking
Speaker 1: some profit. And then we got here in the first
Speaker 1: week of March and suddenly there's a bunch of shorts
Speaker 1: getting liquidated. It temporarily sent prices up, and we've kind
Speaker 1: of ranged ever since. And we were correlated with the
Speaker 1: S and P five hundred, which I'll get to later
Speaker 1: in the call. So right now, yeah, we're seeing a
Speaker 1: little bit of shorting right there. And that's a good
Speaker 1: sign because we kind of bounced right off of that
Speaker 1: red bar and have been going up a little bit
Speaker 1: ever since, back up above eighty eight k for the
Speaker 1: first time in about a little over two weeks.
Speaker 3: And then I know, usually it gets a point when
Speaker 3: the shorts build up or thelongs build up, right, there's
Speaker 3: usually a reversal liquidation. It's funny, exact, and it's so
Speaker 3: good to like look at this data so you can see,
Speaker 3: oh wow, there's a build up of a ton of shorts.
Speaker 3: Maybe there's your shorts squeeze coming up if other factors align,
Speaker 3: and likewise, you know, there's a lot of lungs, you
Speaker 3: know what might be coming. As we saw kind of
Speaker 3: like in January. Right in February, a lot of longs liquidated.
Speaker 2: That's exactly right.
Speaker 1: So with shorts being sprinkled in, we're hoping that they
Speaker 1: continue to contribute to the positive price momentum we've been seeing.
Speaker 1: Now on the whale side of things, we're seeing plenty
Speaker 1: of whale transactions still going on. There has been a
Speaker 1: decline since the end of February, but we do see
Speaker 1: this uptick that just happened a couple days ago, and
Speaker 1: this appeared to be accumulation. And if we take a
Speaker 1: look at this chart, which we've gone over in most
Speaker 1: of our shows, Tony, we do see that the bright
Speaker 1: green line here is moving up. This is representing the
Speaker 1: amount of bitcoin held by wallet's with at least ten
Speaker 1: BTC in them. So Ever, since this little profit take
Speaker 1: that we saw from mid February to about early March,
Speaker 1: they've actually accumulated pretty well, adding about a hundred no sorry,
Speaker 1: e two hundred eleven btc over the past three weeks. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: the you know some people say, especially when you look
Speaker 1: at wallets that hold over ten thousand bitcoin, which is
Speaker 1: a pretty unfathomable number, those are mostly held by exchanges,
Speaker 1: and we've seen that the wallets specifically holding between ten
Speaker 1: to ten thousand, which is excluding some of those huge
Speaker 1: exchange wallets. In this bright green line, even this dark
Speaker 1: green line is starting to rise again, representing the ten
Speaker 1: to ten k wallets. And right when we started to
Speaker 1: really get momentum and go into the high eighty eighty ks,
Speaker 1: it was boosted by the fact that these middle tier
Speaker 1: ten to ten k. While it's we're really starting to
Speaker 1: accumulate once again and they're holding the most they have
Speaker 1: in about three weeks.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, Brian, I was looking at this chart
Speaker 3: over the past month, and I have to say I
Speaker 3: was getting a bit nervous because I'm like, are these
Speaker 3: whales done?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 3: Is this the end of it? Because if they this
Speaker 3: is a true down trend of them not accumulating anymore,
Speaker 3: I need to start panicing. Well not I shouldn't say panic,
Speaker 3: but I need to start prepping for Okay, something's different,
Speaker 3: but it's good to see some recovery here. That's a
Speaker 3: healthy sign. And it wasn't a true down trend exactly.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was getting worried along with you. I mean this,
Speaker 1: We've rarely seen, over the past year, almost two years,
Speaker 1: points in which this bright green line has gone down,
Speaker 1: and when it does, it usually takes the prices with
Speaker 1: it pretty quickly. But this was the turning point about
Speaker 1: three weeks ago where things quickly started to recover and
Speaker 1: only a matter of time, especially right here when we
Speaker 1: bottomed out on March ninth. The fact that we had
Speaker 1: already been starting to move back up even though the
Speaker 1: price was doing, you know, from that exact day doing
Speaker 1: that right, That's called a bullish divergence. When you see
Speaker 1: whales moving up but prices moving down, that should be
Speaker 1: a signal to you that maybe Bitcoin is starting to
Speaker 1: get a bit undervalued compared to what the largest key
Speaker 1: stakeholders are trying to do with the big picture.
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, for sure, great insight. And then on the
Speaker 3: stable coin front, what are you seeing as far as
Speaker 3: tether supply on exchanges?
Speaker 1: Mm hm, so tether is still moving down. Not a
Speaker 1: lot of dry powder on exchanges compared to what we
Speaker 1: were seeing about a month month and a half ago,
Speaker 1: there was about if we're talking specifically about the top
Speaker 1: exchange wallets, basically the top ten, there was about forty
Speaker 1: five point four nine billion dollars worth of tether during
Speaker 1: the first week of February. Now there's forty point sixty
Speaker 1: four so pretty sizable drop. Us D coin does look
Speaker 1: a little bit better. It actually really jumped up here
Speaker 1: on March twenty first, twenty second, twenty third before coming
Speaker 1: back down. But we'd still like to see some improvement
Speaker 1: from the stable coins, especially the top wallets and how
Speaker 1: much they're holding, because that liquidity can really help fuel
Speaker 1: a lot of rallies because of how much buying power
Speaker 1: there is on exchanges.
Speaker 3: Interesting. I know there's like people track I think tether
Speaker 3: dominance and even bitcoin dominance, so it's fascinating. You know,
Speaker 3: I personally don't know. I'm not as well educated as
Speaker 3: some analysts, you know, as far as the correlation. I know,
Speaker 3: it's like, if that supply starts to pretty much break down,
Speaker 3: it means more coins are theoretically going into biitcoin in
Speaker 3: the crypto market. But you know, I'm not fully you know,
Speaker 3: I can say that with one hundred percent confidence because
Speaker 3: I'm not fully educated on that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's a bit of a loose correlation. I
Speaker 1: do believe there's something there, but I certainly don't recommend
Speaker 1: trading just based on you know, the the raw amount
Speaker 1: of tether versus the raw amount of bitcoin on a
Speaker 1: particular exchange. I think that's you know, exchanges have their
Speaker 1: own functions and reasonings for adding more stables for liquidity
Speaker 1: purpose or taking some away, and you have to take
Speaker 1: it with a bit of a grain of salt. In general,
Speaker 1: it's still good to see, you know, rising tether on
Speaker 1: exchanges over time, but if it falls like this, it
Speaker 1: isn't necessarily a sign that like there won't be enough
Speaker 1: stable coins for people to you know, use for their
Speaker 1: their trades and whatever they're requesting, especially when a lot
Speaker 1: of these are coming from like the top exchanges like
Speaker 1: Finance or Tether and USD coinbase for USD coin.
Speaker 3: Yeah, great point, because I believe it or not for
Speaker 3: some who are listening, tell and stable coins are used
Speaker 3: for payments and you know other things people used to
Speaker 3: get yield and so forth, and then the sometimes burning
Speaker 3: right depending on what the individual or institution is doing,
Speaker 3: so exactly. Yeah. Interesting, Any other bitcoin metrics you want
Speaker 3: to share?
Speaker 1: There was one other one that I think is worth watching,
Speaker 1: and that's the total amount of holders. We do see
Speaker 1: that retail traders. Since February February eighteenth, roughly five weeks ago,
Speaker 1: they have gone up by about three hundred and seventy
Speaker 1: four thousand non empty wallets, So they're even despite all
Speaker 1: of this volatility that's happened in the past five weeks,
Speaker 1: the overall network appears to be growing, which is overall
Speaker 1: a pretty good sign. It does indicate there isn't a
Speaker 1: ton of fear. I'd love to see if you know
Speaker 1: a bunch of retail traders really thinking that prices are
Speaker 1: going to go down because that's when we typically see
Speaker 1: the biggest bull rallies. But the network does seem to
Speaker 1: be growing rather quickly, and especially a couple days ago
Speaker 1: when we were at fifty four point eight million non
Speaker 1: empty wallets. If we go back in time, we're pretty
Speaker 1: much at the highest point ever in terms of non
Speaker 1: empty wallets. You can see it really really grew from
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen to twenty four and then there was this
Speaker 1: interesting flat line that's kind of happened ever since June
Speaker 1: of last year. So the growth is a little bit slower,
Speaker 1: and you can see during this rally when the growth
Speaker 1: was slowing, this was from a lot of retail traders
Speaker 1: just taking profit on the way up, not thinking we'd
Speaker 1: go all the way up to you know, one oh nine, hey,
Speaker 1: like we did. But now that prices of retraced, we're
Speaker 1: seeing we're still seeing the network grow, but on a
Speaker 1: slower rate compared to what we saw, you know, three
Speaker 1: to five years ago.
Speaker 3: Interesting. All right, let's move to Ethereum and let's take
Speaker 3: a look at what it's happening with ETH. You know,
Speaker 3: there's been a lot of adoption news with folks building
Speaker 3: on ETH, but you know, ETH still continues to suffer
Speaker 3: from a price standpoint. I do think it will catch up,
Speaker 3: especially as staking is added to the ETF and much more.
Speaker 3: But you know what are you seeing on that front?
Speaker 1: Yeah, Ethereum is out a nice week. It's up about
Speaker 1: ten percent, as we saw over the last week. And
Speaker 1: even though utility doesn't appear to be anything special right
Speaker 1: now with transaction volume, active addresses, and circulation all going down,
Speaker 1: there are some good long term signs. Obviously because it's
Speaker 1: been such an underperformer over the past year. Waltz are
Speaker 1: still down on average about twenty nine percent. That's way
Speaker 1: below what we see for Bitcoin and Solana and XRP,
Speaker 1: so in terms of just a regression to the mean viewpoint,
Speaker 1: there's some argument that Etheroreum could be still one of
Speaker 1: the better bets for a bit of a rebound later
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five, assuming that Bitcoin can start to
Speaker 1: really get its legs, and even the thirty day while
Speaker 1: ITTs are still down just slightly. So I like how
Speaker 1: the MVRV looks a lot for Ethereum in particular, this
Speaker 1: is one of the strongest bullish signals I'm seeing for
Speaker 1: it right now. And then also funding rate, plenty of
Speaker 1: shorts that are being sprinkled in here over the past
Speaker 1: couple weeks. We do see that we're a little closer
Speaker 1: to neutral normally or right now on finance, but look
Speaker 1: for you know, big short spikes like this as a
Speaker 1: good sign that liquidations can occur and prices really soaring
Speaker 1: quickly if the negativity starts to creep in again for
Speaker 1: the number two asset.
Speaker 3: Yeah for sure. And maybe you know, there could be
Speaker 3: a catalyst, like I've been hearing rumors from the SEC
Speaker 3: that you know, they may add staking in the etherem
Speaker 3: ets and that big players like Fidelity and others have
Speaker 3: been filing for that. So could that be a catalyst
Speaker 3: to send it up and you know, help it get
Speaker 3: some strength from a sentiment standpoint, maybe, but absolutely it's
Speaker 3: a fair point.
Speaker 1: Any any more ETF filings that get approved or ways
Speaker 1: for people to invest in ethereum outside of holding coins
Speaker 1: on chain, which a lot of people aren't comfortable with.
Speaker 1: And we all we have to accept that, you know
Speaker 1: that reality is is a thing that means that having
Speaker 1: ETFs is only going to help the cause for ethereum
Speaker 1: or the rumored you know x RP or Solana ETFs
Speaker 1: out there another handful of coins. To any of these
Speaker 1: coins that get approved ETFs, it's going only going to
Speaker 1: help the cause.
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, let's take a look at Solana or unless
Speaker 3: there's other info here on.
Speaker 1: Eth nothing else on Ethereum. I just I continue to
Speaker 1: monitor the sentiment, which we can look at here. In fact,
Speaker 1: we can check out Etherium, Bitcoin and Solana and we'll
Speaker 1: do XRP two so all four of these sentiments for
Speaker 1: each of them can be found here on this chart.
Speaker 1: We're just measuring the overall level of positive comments according
Speaker 1: to our algorithm across social media versus the negative ones,
Speaker 1: and the ratio specifically between them as a good sign
Speaker 1: of greed versus fear. So we saw actually just about
Speaker 1: three months ago on Christmas, there was this huge, huge
Speaker 1: positive sentiment spike and it didn't All it did was
Speaker 1: really send prices down, which is normal. Meanwhile, when you
Speaker 1: see some of these negative spikes, it actually can be
Speaker 1: a good thing. Like right here on February tewod when
Speaker 1: we were bottoming out and seeing Ethereum at twenty five hundred,
Speaker 1: we saw a pretty decent bounce right after. It didn't
Speaker 1: last long, but you get the idea. This one as well.
Speaker 1: There was a bounce right after we really got negative,
Speaker 1: and now we've seen a few positive spikes. This one
Speaker 1: on March nineteenth was followed by a short retrace after
Speaker 1: people got a bit too excited, and then another one
Speaker 1: just yesterday March twenty fourth, very minor retrace, and now
Speaker 1: we're kind of back in neutral territory switching to bitcoin.
Speaker 1: It actually looks quite positive right now, makes sense. We're
Speaker 1: back at eighty eight k for the first time in
Speaker 1: what about six weeks here, I'm sorry, not six weeks.
Speaker 1: I'm reading it wrong, about three weeks or so ago,
Speaker 1: and this positive sentiment is the highest in six weeks,
Speaker 1: indicating that we might be starting to see a little
Speaker 1: too much fomo. This is kind of a short term
Speaker 1: reaction to seeing finally some positive momentum toward bitcoin. It
Speaker 1: doesn't mean bitcoin can't continue climbing into the ninety k's again,
Speaker 1: which many people are hoping for, but the amount of
Speaker 1: retail fomo looks a bit too high from just a
Speaker 1: short swing trader perspective.
Speaker 3: It's just fascinating. I know, I say this like almost recording.
Speaker 3: It's just fascinating to look at this data and watch
Speaker 3: it play out for these assets, and understanding the human
Speaker 3: psychology that's behind it. Yeah, maybe I love looking at
Speaker 3: data and patterns and pattern recognition. It's so fascinating to me.
Speaker 1: It is a lot of fun when you really start
Speaker 1: to understand with every price fluctuation, how it really skews
Speaker 1: people's minds toward a certain expectation just from like a
Speaker 1: simple price swing. You know, we were so negative just
Speaker 1: a few weeks ago, and then all of a sudden,
Speaker 1: we get to eighty AK and suddenly people think bitcoin's
Speaker 1: a great investment again.
Speaker 2: It's it's just so fascinating.
Speaker 3: I don't know if you've seen that meme where there's
Speaker 3: two guys at a booth right, and then the herd
Speaker 3: doesn't go for the lower price. They always line up
Speaker 3: for the higher price.
Speaker 1: Yeah, or like the exact same price, like eighty K
Speaker 1: in November of twenty twenty four, everyone is incredibly excited
Speaker 1: and like fanning out their dollars, ready to pay whoever
Speaker 1: they need to pay. And then eighty K in March
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, everyone is kind of sad and like
Speaker 1: burying their face in their hands, even though it's literally
Speaker 1: the exact same market price, but people have different perspectives
Speaker 1: because it's all based on when they bought in, and
Speaker 1: obviously eightyk in March is a depressing thing for many
Speaker 1: retailers who were buying in you know, mid January at
Speaker 1: one oh five, one oh eight k, just before Trump
Speaker 1: got inaugurated, expecting that prices we're going to balloon to
Speaker 1: one fifty k as soon as he took office, and
Speaker 1: obviously the opposite came true. So now we're back to
Speaker 1: playing the longer game and people are patiently waiting for
Speaker 1: you know, Bitcoin to reach those prices again.
Speaker 3: All right, let's take a look at Solana and what's
Speaker 3: happening there. There were some huge news this morning actually
Speaker 3: about black Rock expanding there. Took an ice fun onto
Speaker 3: the Solona blockchain, yep.
Speaker 1: And you can guess what happens when Blackrock gets involved
Speaker 1: with Solana and creates that positive news wave, the sentiment
Speaker 1: just sores. In fact, we're seeing over ten positive comments
Speaker 1: across social media for Solana compared to every one negative comment.
Speaker 1: This is the highest we've seen in a very long time,
Speaker 1: at least the last three months. I'm going back in
Speaker 1: time to see, yeah, this is today is the highest
Speaker 1: positive sentiment day for Solana in at least the past year.
Speaker 1: I won't bother to go further back, but you get
Speaker 1: the idea of the magnitude of how much fomo is
Speaker 1: going on for this asset right now.
Speaker 3: Are you guys tracking Solana like meme coin activity, Bundy, chance,
Speaker 3: because I know like that aspect of it has really
Speaker 3: dried up. Any data you can share there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can go to the social side of things
Speaker 1: to see how much it's being mentioned.
Speaker 2: In fact, we'll do We'll do two quick searches.
Speaker 1: We can look at Solana, I'll do the full name
Speaker 1: as well as the ticker, and then I'll go and
Speaker 1: meme coins. That's fine, We'll just do meme coins to
Speaker 1: see how much it's being mentioned alongside meme coins. And
Speaker 1: just as you would expect, tony tons of social volume
Speaker 1: from late twenty twenty four up until early February, and
Speaker 1: then it just drops off a cliff. As you know,
Speaker 1: markets all just plummeted throughout the first half of February especially.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's interesting because look, I know there's people who
Speaker 3: are fans of me coins. I'm not so much a
Speaker 3: fan of it, but I do believe and I think
Speaker 3: a lot of people agree with me. A lot of
Speaker 3: liquidity was stolen from other all coins going into memes
Speaker 3: on Solana with pump that fun. So there's this like
Speaker 3: drying out of that market. And look, it will return.
Speaker 3: I think it'll return, you know, as the phase continues
Speaker 3: in the bull market. But we need the liquidity to
Speaker 3: go back to Bitcoin in the top bolts.
Speaker 1: That typically is is what needs to happen in the
Speaker 1: long term cycle for all markets to go up. Yeah,
Speaker 1: we need to see meme coiners eventually get wrecked in
Speaker 1: some capacity stop believing in meme coins after that, and
Speaker 1: then meme coins start to pump and we see the
Speaker 1: profit redistribution from the bitcoin market cap growth happen all
Speaker 1: over again and rinse and repeat.
Speaker 3: M all right, let's take a look at XRP. That's
Speaker 3: our final one and.
Speaker 1: Then we'll I just wanted absolutely and I just wanted
Speaker 1: to check to see how much black rock is being mentioned.
Speaker 2: So yeah, yeah, check that spike out.
Speaker 1: That's today, So clearly that's that has a lot to
Speaker 1: do with that sentiment spike we just checked out.
Speaker 3: Wow, yeah, that makes sense. That says a huge news,
Speaker 3: huge adoption news. M H.
Speaker 1: And if I'm not mistaken, it's just a rumor right now,
Speaker 1: right there's nothing confirmed yet.
Speaker 3: The folks are Securitize, which helped black Rock to launch
Speaker 3: the tokenized money market fund. They confirmed it.
Speaker 1: Okay, that that makes sense then, so this is this
Speaker 1: isn't just to buy the rumor sell the news situation.
Speaker 1: It's confirmed news that can have a long lasting impact,
Speaker 1: probably once that FOMO dies down a little bit. You
Speaker 1: typically don't see huge Solona pumps while everyone retail wise
Speaker 1: is already expecting Solana to soar. But it'll eventually calm
Speaker 1: down and then we will likely see the impact of it,
Speaker 1: yeah for sure. And then on the XRP side, it
Speaker 1: doesn't look like there's anything too special going on. Sentiment wise,
Speaker 1: it's sitting just lightly with more positive commentary than negative commentary.
Speaker 1: But xrp's obviously been a huge story for the past
Speaker 1: five months, in particular, ever since it went from what
Speaker 1: about fifty cents to where it is now about two
Speaker 1: forty five, jumping about three hundred and seventy nine percent
Speaker 1: in market cap during that time. So kind of like
Speaker 1: the opposite of ethereum, you would expect there's going to
Speaker 1: be potentially a little regression to the mean because there
Speaker 1: were already so many people profiting off of that rally.
Speaker 1: And if we look at MVRV, just like we did
Speaker 1: for ethereum, Yeah, so this was all this blue here
Speaker 1: was off the axis because if you check out the
Speaker 1: top left of my screen, while it's were up an
Speaker 1: average of one hundred and fifteen percent one hundred twenty
Speaker 1: as I drag left and right like insanely high numbers,
Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty four percent on January twenty before
Speaker 1: it finally started to calm down. You don't want to
Speaker 1: be in an asset when you see extremely high while
Speaker 1: average average profits across all the other traders that you
Speaker 1: are competing against. But now we've calmed down, the average
Speaker 1: wallets in the past thirty days are actually down about
Speaker 1: zero point six percent. In the past three sixty five days,
Speaker 1: they're still up about forty two percent. I'd love to
Speaker 1: see that the MVRV drops down to like maybe below
Speaker 1: twenty percent for this teal line here, and the orange
Speaker 1: line maybe gets down to negative five, negative ten percent.
Speaker 1: That would indicate that you're starting to get into a
Speaker 1: really good by territory. If you're looking for an ideal
Speaker 1: point to get into XRP.
Speaker 3: Interesting any other data you think might be worth highlighting here.
Speaker 1: The other thing with XRP is the whales are very
Speaker 1: inactive compared to what we were seeing during these peaks
Speaker 1: in early February and right before Trump's inauguration. So right
Speaker 1: now we're only getting maybe like one hundred and twenty
Speaker 1: ish wallet or transactions per day that exceed a million
Speaker 1: dollars in value versus about one thousand to eleven hundred
Speaker 1: wallet transfers that are over one hundred thousand dollars in value.
Speaker 2: So compare that to this.
Speaker 1: Spike where it was five eight hundred and seventy eight
Speaker 1: hundred K plus transactions and seven hundred and sixty two
Speaker 1: million dollar plus transactions. So whales are inactive, but it
Speaker 1: doesn't necessarily mean they're dumping. We can actually look and
Speaker 1: see like the amount of XRP held by wallets with
Speaker 1: like at least a million XRP, and if we make
Speaker 1: it a different color than dark gray, there we go.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean they've they've continued to climb over time. I'll
Speaker 1: go back a little bit to like the last five years,
Speaker 1: and you can see the point in which they really
Speaker 1: reversed direction. In December of twenty twenty two, they were
Speaker 1: holding about forty one point seven billion then and they
Speaker 1: old forty six point four billion now, So they've they've
Speaker 1: really started to.
Speaker 2: Increase their bags.
Speaker 1: In fact, they already have been for about two what
Speaker 1: almost two and a half years now. Eleven point one
Speaker 1: percent coins more coins held compared to December of twenty
Speaker 1: twenty two. That's a really nice looking metric for the
Speaker 1: long term outlook of XRP.
Speaker 3: M interesting. That's definitely a good sign. Actually, as you're
Speaker 3: you know, we're talking about XRP, some news just broke
Speaker 3: from Ripple's chief legal officer that the SEC and Ripple
Speaker 3: it's done. It's one hundred percent done, the case is over.
Speaker 3: Ripple's going to probably fifty million dollars in a fine
Speaker 3: set up the one hundred and twenty five. So that
Speaker 3: should probably help. I don't know, you know, it's like
Speaker 3: we're seeing a lot of bullish news for a lot
Speaker 3: of coins today.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was actually checking this out today because it's
Speaker 1: been on and off kind of made official over the
Speaker 1: past week or two. But xrp's very complex relationship with
Speaker 1: the SEC has had a lot of price impact over
Speaker 1: the past couple of years, as you would imagine, so
Speaker 1: I can compare it directly to price. I'm just putting
Speaker 1: an XRP anytime it's mentioned with the words sec or lawsuit,
Speaker 1: and we can go back. Let's just go back to
Speaker 1: the past year and you can see the points in
Speaker 1: which there was news about the sec or a lawsuit.
Speaker 1: This one was actually a top. I know it's hard
Speaker 1: to see with this green line, but it kind of
Speaker 1: halted xrp's rally from last August right there. This one
Speaker 1: was kind of flat. And then you can see precisely
Speaker 1: December first when everyone talked about the lawsuit that marked
Speaker 1: a top. This one in mid January marked the top,
Speaker 1: and then even this latest one from a week ago
Speaker 1: mark to top. So I'm curious to see whether this
Speaker 1: has a positive or negative impact on xrp's short term price.
Speaker 1: If we judge by history, it actually may cause a
Speaker 1: slight top. And then after people give up on XRP,
Speaker 1: that's when the effects, the positive effects of this good
Speaker 1: news really starts to take effect.
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, for sure. Interesting Brian, As always, my friend,
Speaker 3: great information, great data, and as I always say, maybe
Speaker 3: in two weeks you know, next two weeks we are
Speaker 3: at higher prices, and you know, if everything goes according
Speaker 3: to plan, you know, maybe we're hitting new highs come
Speaker 3: May or June. But we'll have to wait and see
Speaker 3: how the market plays out.
Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to updating in a couple of weeks
Speaker 1: and yeah, just like you, we're hoping for the best
Speaker 1: and we continue to see a nice recovery so we
Speaker 1: can get back to those January all time highs.
Speaker 3: Oh for sure.
Speaker 2: Bask PST, PST, PST, PSK,