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Speaker 1: Final weekend of the NFL regular season, one last chance

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to fade the public before the playoffs begin, and I've

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got the three most public sides here for week eighteen,

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right here for you, free with analysis. This is Steve

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Merrill wager Talk dot Com, right back here on wager

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Talk TV. And hey, fad in the public's been great

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this season, sixty percent overall, faving the most public plays

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each and every week. Last couple of weeks they haven't

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been too bad. They went two and two last week,

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had one winning week the week before that, but then

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got slaughtered of course the month beforehand. So overall, still

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sixty percent this year. Fade in the public, and I've

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got three public plays for you here in week eighteen,

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two on Sunday's card and one on Saturdays. Let's quickly

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look at that Saturday game now. I'm recording this late

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Friday night into Saturday morning. We always get it posted

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for you by Saturday afternoon, so I know many of

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you are watching this before the late game kicks off

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Saturday night, but the other half of you probably you'll

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see it afterwards. I'm not going to spend much time

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on the analysis. I do have a free play video

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for both Saturday games Panthers Buccaneers and Seahawks forty nine

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ers here on the channel, So check that out for

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free plays in both your Saturday NFL games. But as

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I mentioned to that San Francisco forty nine ers ding

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Ding red flag alert are a public dog this week.

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In fact, the one public underdog this week is the

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forty nine ers on that Saturday night game at eight eastern.

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And I'll take it a step further. We actually have

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what I call a sharp square divide in that game,

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in which the sharp money is on the Seahawks the professionals,

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but the public is on the Niners. And the line

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move since I did that Saturday video a couple days ago,

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proves it. When I recorded the video on Thursday for

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that game, Seahawks REMNUS one and a half, and now

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Friday night into Saturday morning, Seahawks REMNUS two and a half,

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and also Friday on wager Talk TV. Arthur Deceis, or

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risk manager at the Westgate super Book in Las Vegas,

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confirmed that the sharps are on the Seahawks while the

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public is on the Niners. So here's one of those

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unique situations. You know, we love to fade public dogs,

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but I also love to look for sharp square divides

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with the professional moneys on one side and the public

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is on the other. So it'll be interesting to see

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if this ever hits that key number of three by

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kickoff Saturday night. But once again, the sharps are on

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the Seahawks. The line's going higher, but the public is

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on the Niners. San Francisco is a public dog this

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week on Saturday night, eight Eastern on ABC and ESPN.

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And once again you want my thoughts on that game,

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free side and total and my free play in the

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early game for Saturday, checkout the Saturday two for one

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video here on wager Talk TV. All right, let's look

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at the two Sunday games here. As I know many

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of you are joining the Sunday mornings, I didn't want

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to spend too much time on the Saturday night game.

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Two public plays on the Sunday card, they're both on

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the late afternoon card at four to twenty five Eastern.

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Of course, the NFL doing these staggered start times. Here

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the flex schedule for week eighteen, which is a great idea.

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And also I love that they're doing all divisional games.

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They've gotten smart about that, right. It gives them better

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chance of having meaningful playoff matchups by having more divisional

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games in December, especially the final week. They flexed in

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those two important divisional games on Saturday, and they've moved

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a lot of the games here on the late card

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at four twenty five Eastern. This one doesn't have a

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ton of playoff implications, but it does have one team

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that could still move their seating a bit, and that's

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the Buffalo Bills minus eight. Public is heavy on Buffalo,

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not a surprise. They're no way they're touching the Jets.

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Nobody wants anything to do with the Jets. In fact,

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last week, this is an interesting stat last week, if

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my math is right. I looked it up and realized

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there were six games last week in which teams that

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were eliminated from the playoffs were playing a team that

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still had something to play for, and that whole must

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win situation is so overrated. In fact, if you played

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the nine playoff teams the non playoff teams last week,

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you went five to one against the spread. That including

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the Falcons upsetting the Rams and Monday night the Dolphins

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upsetting the Buccaneers. Outright, both of those were fade the

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public plays. But the one time the one team that

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did covers, the Patriots blown out the Jets, and of

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course public loves fading the Jets this season. So even

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though the non playoff teams are five and one against

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the spread last week, the Jets were still the one

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team that got blown out and did not cover. So

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you just can't trust them. They're terrible offensive team and

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they get behind, they can't catch up. And Brady Cook,

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the rookie from Missouri Mazou, is making another start here.

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He's been in four games this season. He's had one touchdown,

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seven interceptions, and a fifty two point nine rating. Now

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the problem becomes do the Bills play their starters, And

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it's a big question, but I think they probably will

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because first of all, they're coming off of bad loss

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against the Eagles. Really dominated the second half last Sunday,

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missed the extra point kick, had to go for two

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in the next one, and lost the game thirteen twelve.

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Because are two missed extra points. Buffalo doesn't want to

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go to the playoffs off another loss. I think they

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are going to treat this as kind of a preseason game,

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and isn't it Funny, you know always say week one

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of the regular seasons kind of like the preseason. Still

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you remember me saying that every year a lot of uncertainty,

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the results don't always correlate to the rest of the year. Well,

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we've come full circle because Week eighteen is even more

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like the preseason as we're kind of reading between the lines,

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which teams are taking the game series, which ones are

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playing their starters, which ones are resting their quarterbacks. Well,

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I think Josh Allen will start this game for a

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few reasons. First of all, yes, he has a sore

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right foot, but he has a starting streak of one

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hundred he wants to extend it to one hundred and

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thirty five games, which is the current longest run in

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the NFL. So I think he'll definitely start for that reason. Plus,

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it's the final home game most likely in this Buffalo

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stadium over fifty some years, and this will likely be

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their last home game before the stadium because as a

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lower seed, they're not gonna probably get a home playoff game.

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And there's also I think a little bit of a

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reason to move up a bit. They're currently the seventh

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seed in the NFL playoffs, Houston's a double digit favor

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Jacksonville's a double digit favorite. New England's a double digit favorite,

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and Jacksonville to Houston play earlier games, so we'll know

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those results before this game. And assuming they win as

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they should, the Bills can't move up much, but they

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could move from seventh to sixth, and that's if the

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Chargers lose, as they probably will. Is a double digit

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dog against Denver and they're gonna actually sit there. Starters

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Herbert is not playing, including some others. They are treating

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it as a preseason game, and I think for Buffalo

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there's some incentive to move up. They're gonna face either

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the two or three seed, but New England's likely going

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to be the two seed, more likely Jacksonville's the three seed,

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And if you're Buffalo, I would much rather play Jacksonville

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than that New England in round one and be moving

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to the sixth seed accomplishes that. So I do think

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the Bills have something to play for here. Now. They

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might rest some guys in the second half, so you

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could say, hey, first half line worth of looks instead

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of minus eight, you could lay minus five and a half.

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Not a ton of value there, or how about the

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first quarter. I think this one is interesting. Bills minus

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two and a half below that key number three, and

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I'm pretty sure they're gonna want to come out and

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at least play strong in the first quarter like you

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do in a preseason game. If you're gonna play the

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Bills in this one, Buffalo minus two and a half

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in the first quarter, I think is the best way

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to attack it. As I don't disagree with the public,

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I'm in no hurry to back the Jets. And by

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the way, the Jets have not forced an interception all season.

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How insane is that? Sixteen games and they have not

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picked off a single pass. Now, facing Josh Allen Good

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quarterback on the road, Brady Cook has seven interceptions in

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his four starts, and the defense has not picked one

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off in the entire season. They'll be the first team

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in NFL history to go seventeen games without an interception.

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I don't think anybody's even gone sixteen games without it

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was they've already done. Wow. Really bad team and they

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have no offense, so hard to fade the public in

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this one. I think if you're gonna play the Bills

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of the first quarter minus two and a half is

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a sneaky way to get there while the starters are

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still in the field. Twenty five eastern all right. Your

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other game is at four to twenty five eastern as well,

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and this is in the NFC LA rams minus eight

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and a half for a public side this week. A

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lot of uncertainty how this game might play out, though,

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and I'll explain it to you now. It's dependent on

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the Saturday night outcomes on several levels. And as I said,

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I'm doing this video heading into Saturday morning for you

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always like to get it up nice and early and

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by Saturday afternoon fade the public. Otherwise people say, Steve,

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where is it? Steve, where is it? Don't forget click

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the bell. When you subscribe here on wager Talk TV,

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you will get an instant alert when all the free

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play videos are posted. I will be doing NFL videos

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fade the public style and every single NFL playoff game

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starting next week. I've given you every Bowl game this season,

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all the playoff games as well. I'll have next week's

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semi final games in the following week, the National Championship game,

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College and Pro football, every game basically free for you

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in a video. The rest of the season, and you

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don't want to miss it's a click subscribe and click

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that bell for an instant alert here on wager Talk TV,

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and of course thumbs up like positive common below and

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I will keep these videos coming for you each and

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every day. Now, as I'm telling you, I'm recording this

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before the Saturday games. If Seattle wins, they got about

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a fifty five percent chance of winning now as a

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two and a half point road favorite. If Seattle wins,

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and the Rams have something to play for. Now, if

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the Niners pull the slight upset forty five percent chance,

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the Rams have nothing to play for because if San

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Fran wins, they get the one seed, Seattle automatically gets

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the five seed, the Rams will be locked into the

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sixth seed. However, if Seattle wins, and it's so slightly

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above fifty percent chance they will, then Seattle gets the

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one seed for the NFC playoffs, and the Rams win,

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they move up to the five seed and San Fran

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falls all the way to the sixth seeds. So, once again,

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if San Francisco pulls the upset, the Rams have nothing

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to play for. But if Seattle wins the game as

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a slight favorite on Saturday night, the Rams can move

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from the sixth seed to the fifth seed. Why would

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they want to do that? Well, I think they probably

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would because they would play the NFC South winner. It's

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going to either be the Panthers or Buccaneers. Once again,

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either the Buccaneers or Panthers are going to be the

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four seed. As the worst division winner, Rams would much

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rather play at one of those squads, play at Tampa

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Carolina than at Chicago or Philly. So, once again, depending

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on that late Saturday night game, Rams have a lot

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to play for. Now, this line is obviously going to

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go higher if if Seattle wins the game, the Rams

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have something to play for. This line will probably be

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double digits by Sunday. And by the way, this line

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will probably be off the board at most sports books

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while the game is taking place. If San Francisco pulls

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the upset, this line will be a lot less than

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minus eight, because then you start thinking the Rams might

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sit everybody. But even if San fran gets the one

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seed and the Rams are locked into the sixth seed,

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I still think they're going to play for something. Now.

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If they can move up into the fifth seat, I

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think they definitely play hard but either way, I don't

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feel like they want to go in the playoffs with

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two bad tastes in their mouth after back to back losses.

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They blew the fourteen point lead at Seattle in the

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second half and then they were down twenty one to

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nothing at a halftime, out scored the Falcons twenty four

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to six in the second half. I think they look

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to carry some of them momentum into the first half.

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So here again, very similar situation. If you're going to

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play the Rams, not the minus eight and a half

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or whatever it might be by Sunday. First half right

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now is five and a half a little pricey, But

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the first quarter line, just like the Buffalo game, is

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minus two and a half. Now if the Rams have

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something to play for, if Seattle wins and this line

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goes to double digits, and that line might be three

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three and a half first quarter, I only like the

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first quarter at minus three or less, but at two

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and a half minus three Rams first quarter makes a

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lot of sense even if they have nothing to play for,

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because I think they'll want to, least like the preseason,

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once again, come out to make a solid effort. So

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here's a situation very difficult to say if we should

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play or fade the public because we don't know the

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circumstances of the Saturday games. But I think either way,

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the Rams probably want to play well early and then

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maybe they pulled their foot off the gas, So first

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quarter or first half line might be the way to

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attack it with the Rams. And once again last week

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playing these non playoff teams like the Cardinals in this

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one or the Jets did go five and one against

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the spread, but we got you unique situations where both

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the Rams and Bills do someone have something to play

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for in the line is probably several points anywhere from

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a field goal to a touchdown, less it would have

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been in a regular game. So it's a tricky week

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for the fade the public data. But those are the

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two public plays on Sunday, the Buffalo Bills minus eight

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and the Rams currently minus eight and a half. We'll

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see where that line is after the Saturday night results.

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And of course the forty nine ers on Saturday plus

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the one and a half to two and a half

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is also your public dog of the week. So three

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public plays Niners on Saturday, Bills and Rams on Sunday. Hey,

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we'll see how the regular season finishes sixty percent fade

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in the public. This year, I put a little bit

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of an asterisk maybe next to Week eighteen here, and

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same thing as I do with Week one, right, you know,

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I always say Week one is a semi preseason. Well,

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Week eighteen's kind of like the preseason as well. We've

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come full circle here at the end of the NFL

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regular season. I will continue, though, to give you the

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public data. In fact, I'm gonna give you every NFL

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playoff game free. You know I did it last year

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00:11:43,919 --> 00:11:47,559
for every NCAA March Madness game, every NBA playoff game

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00:11:47,559 --> 00:11:49,399
I gave you. Last year, I gave you all the

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postseason bowl games in college playoff games. I'll continue to

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do so next week. I'm gonna give you every NFL

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playoff game. I'll ask is a quick thumbs up like

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in a positive comment blow click the thumbs up like

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00:11:58,639 --> 00:12:00,320
and tell me right now, do you wont every NFL

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00:12:00,360 --> 00:12:02,360
game free in the playoffs? Here in the videos along

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00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:04,320
with the public data. And I will do it because

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I'm a man of the people. I do read the

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00:12:06,120 --> 00:12:08,519
comments and I reply back and don't forget click subscribe

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00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:10,399
and click that bell for an instant alert, so you'll

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00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:12,240
know when all these freeplay videos are posted each and

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00:12:12,279 --> 00:12:15,320
every day here on the channel. And by the way,

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if you want to comment below, let me know your

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favorite best bets for Sunday. That's always appreciated. I love

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00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:23,360
it too when you include analysis. As I'd like to say,

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let's learn and earn and win together here on wager talkTV.

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What plays do you like this Sunday in the NFL?

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00:12:28,919 --> 00:12:31,639
What are your top plays on the week eighteen card.

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00:12:31,879 --> 00:12:33,559
By the way, if you want my personal best bets

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00:12:33,559 --> 00:12:35,679
my strongest plays for week eighteen, they're posted on my

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page at wager talk dot com Steve Merrill wager talk

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00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:40,919
dot com. And of course you can get there quicker

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with shortcut WT dot Buzz slash sm And while you're there,

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check out the daily free play. I post a free

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play every day in either basketball or football with analysis,

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00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:52,279
and many of you say, well, go there, I don't

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00:12:52,279 --> 00:12:54,279
see the free play Well. First of all, it usually

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00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:57,200
goes up early afternoon. The reason being is because it's

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the last cut from my best bet card. I get

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00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:02,000
the best bets out to my clients. I put that

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00:13:02,080 --> 00:13:04,279
last cut that just missed out just a bit outside

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00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:06,919
up as a free play with analysis, and also after

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00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:09,919
it starts, it disappears because it's not archive there. So

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00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:12,480
once again, go to my page every day get that

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free play. It's always like early afternoons the best time

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to check for it. But more importantly, get the strong

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best bets. Build your bank roll. Here in twenty twenty six,

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what a great New Year's resolution. I'm not a New

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Year's resolution guy. I believe in, you know, living your

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best life every day, trying to make yourself better every day,

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improving your process as a handicapper. We have to do that,

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but it is a great restart and if it's a

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positive thing for your life to change things, the New

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year's resolutions are great, but a good one if you

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want to make one. From a sports betting standpoint, it's

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start taking a serious investment approach, and now's a great

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the next half of the rest of this year's college

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and pro basketball into next year's the complete baseball season

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coming up. One year all Access pass gets it down

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about a dollar a play. It's a great offer. It's

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if you want to try it out as a short

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term sampler. But I know many of you are new

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to sports betting, new to wager talk. Three day all

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Access is always very popular, and we do have the

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or a three day sampler in basketball for forty nine.

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a great way to try out my service, see how

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I do things and build that bankroll. Here in the

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new year and you can get there quicker along with

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the daily free play on my page Steve merrillwager Talk

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dot com, and don't forget the best bets are recapped

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every day, win or lose full transparency. My best bets

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are recapped afterwards at the bottom of the page a

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rolling twenty recap for several days. You can always click

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on them as well to read the analysis to get

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a feel for how I do things. So go to

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my page every day, check out the best bets, check

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out the recaps, click the analysis, get the bonus free play,

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on the way out, Follow me on social media on

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x and Instagram at Steve Merrill two RS one L

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M E R R I L at Steve Merrill on

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x and Instagram. And stay tuned to wager Talk TV

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because you know there's more free play videos coming up

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next