Speaker 1: Final weekend of the NFL regular season, one last chance
to fade the public before the playoffs begin, and I've
got the three most public sides here for week eighteen,
right here for you, free with analysis. This is Steve
Merrill wager Talk dot Com, right back here on wager
Talk TV. And hey, fad in the public's been great
this season, sixty percent overall, faving the most public plays
each and every week. Last couple of weeks they haven't
been too bad. They went two and two last week,
had one winning week the week before that, but then
got slaughtered of course the month beforehand. So overall, still
sixty percent this year. Fade in the public, and I've
got three public plays for you here in week eighteen,
two on Sunday's card and one on Saturdays. Let's quickly
look at that Saturday game now. I'm recording this late
Friday night into Saturday morning. We always get it posted
for you by Saturday afternoon, so I know many of
you are watching this before the late game kicks off
Saturday night, but the other half of you probably you'll
see it afterwards. I'm not going to spend much time
on the analysis. I do have a free play video
for both Saturday games Panthers Buccaneers and Seahawks forty nine
ers here on the channel, So check that out for
free plays in both your Saturday NFL games. But as
I mentioned to that San Francisco forty nine ers ding
Ding red flag alert are a public dog this week.
In fact, the one public underdog this week is the
forty nine ers on that Saturday night game at eight eastern.
And I'll take it a step further. We actually have
what I call a sharp square divide in that game,
in which the sharp money is on the Seahawks the professionals,
but the public is on the Niners. And the line
move since I did that Saturday video a couple days ago,
proves it. When I recorded the video on Thursday for
that game, Seahawks REMNUS one and a half, and now
Friday night into Saturday morning, Seahawks REMNUS two and a half,
and also Friday on wager Talk TV. Arthur Deceis, or
risk manager at the Westgate super Book in Las Vegas,
confirmed that the sharps are on the Seahawks while the
public is on the Niners. So here's one of those
unique situations. You know, we love to fade public dogs,
but I also love to look for sharp square divides
with the professional moneys on one side and the public
is on the other. So it'll be interesting to see
if this ever hits that key number of three by
kickoff Saturday night. But once again, the sharps are on
the Seahawks. The line's going higher, but the public is
on the Niners. San Francisco is a public dog this
week on Saturday night, eight Eastern on ABC and ESPN.
And once again you want my thoughts on that game,
free side and total and my free play in the
early game for Saturday, checkout the Saturday two for one
video here on wager Talk TV. All right, let's look
at the two Sunday games here. As I know many
of you are joining the Sunday mornings, I didn't want
to spend too much time on the Saturday night game.
Two public plays on the Sunday card, they're both on
the late afternoon card at four to twenty five Eastern.
Of course, the NFL doing these staggered start times. Here
the flex schedule for week eighteen, which is a great idea.
And also I love that they're doing all divisional games.
They've gotten smart about that, right. It gives them better
chance of having meaningful playoff matchups by having more divisional
games in December, especially the final week. They flexed in
those two important divisional games on Saturday, and they've moved
a lot of the games here on the late card
at four twenty five Eastern. This one doesn't have a
ton of playoff implications, but it does have one team
that could still move their seating a bit, and that's
the Buffalo Bills minus eight. Public is heavy on Buffalo,
not a surprise. They're no way they're touching the Jets.
Nobody wants anything to do with the Jets. In fact,
last week, this is an interesting stat last week, if
my math is right. I looked it up and realized
there were six games last week in which teams that
were eliminated from the playoffs were playing a team that
still had something to play for, and that whole must
win situation is so overrated. In fact, if you played
the nine playoff teams the non playoff teams last week,
you went five to one against the spread. That including
the Falcons upsetting the Rams and Monday night the Dolphins
upsetting the Buccaneers. Outright, both of those were fade the
public plays. But the one time the one team that
did covers, the Patriots blown out the Jets, and of
course public loves fading the Jets this season. So even
though the non playoff teams are five and one against
the spread last week, the Jets were still the one
team that got blown out and did not cover. So
you just can't trust them. They're terrible offensive team and
they get behind, they can't catch up. And Brady Cook,
the rookie from Missouri Mazou, is making another start here.
He's been in four games this season. He's had one touchdown,
seven interceptions, and a fifty two point nine rating. Now
the problem becomes do the Bills play their starters, And
it's a big question, but I think they probably will
because first of all, they're coming off of bad loss
against the Eagles. Really dominated the second half last Sunday,
missed the extra point kick, had to go for two
in the next one, and lost the game thirteen twelve.
Because are two missed extra points. Buffalo doesn't want to
go to the playoffs off another loss. I think they
are going to treat this as kind of a preseason game,
and isn't it Funny, you know always say week one
of the regular seasons kind of like the preseason. Still
you remember me saying that every year a lot of uncertainty,
the results don't always correlate to the rest of the year. Well,
we've come full circle because Week eighteen is even more
like the preseason as we're kind of reading between the lines,
which teams are taking the game series, which ones are
playing their starters, which ones are resting their quarterbacks. Well,
I think Josh Allen will start this game for a
few reasons. First of all, yes, he has a sore
right foot, but he has a starting streak of one
hundred he wants to extend it to one hundred and
thirty five games, which is the current longest run in
the NFL. So I think he'll definitely start for that reason. Plus,
it's the final home game most likely in this Buffalo
stadium over fifty some years, and this will likely be
their last home game before the stadium because as a
lower seed, they're not gonna probably get a home playoff game.
And there's also I think a little bit of a
reason to move up a bit. They're currently the seventh
seed in the NFL playoffs, Houston's a double digit favor
Jacksonville's a double digit favorite. New England's a double digit favorite,
and Jacksonville to Houston play earlier games, so we'll know
those results before this game. And assuming they win as
they should, the Bills can't move up much, but they
could move from seventh to sixth, and that's if the
Chargers lose, as they probably will. Is a double digit
dog against Denver and they're gonna actually sit there. Starters
Herbert is not playing, including some others. They are treating
it as a preseason game, and I think for Buffalo
there's some incentive to move up. They're gonna face either
the two or three seed, but New England's likely going
to be the two seed, more likely Jacksonville's the three seed,
And if you're Buffalo, I would much rather play Jacksonville
than that New England in round one and be moving
to the sixth seed accomplishes that. So I do think
the Bills have something to play for here. Now. They
might rest some guys in the second half, so you
could say, hey, first half line worth of looks instead
of minus eight, you could lay minus five and a half.
Not a ton of value there, or how about the
first quarter. I think this one is interesting. Bills minus
two and a half below that key number three, and
I'm pretty sure they're gonna want to come out and
at least play strong in the first quarter like you
do in a preseason game. If you're gonna play the
Bills in this one, Buffalo minus two and a half
in the first quarter, I think is the best way
to attack it. As I don't disagree with the public,
I'm in no hurry to back the Jets. And by
the way, the Jets have not forced an interception all season.
How insane is that? Sixteen games and they have not
picked off a single pass. Now, facing Josh Allen Good
quarterback on the road, Brady Cook has seven interceptions in
his four starts, and the defense has not picked one
off in the entire season. They'll be the first team
in NFL history to go seventeen games without an interception.
I don't think anybody's even gone sixteen games without it
was they've already done. Wow. Really bad team and they
have no offense, so hard to fade the public in
this one. I think if you're gonna play the Bills
of the first quarter minus two and a half is
a sneaky way to get there while the starters are
still in the field. Twenty five eastern all right. Your
other game is at four to twenty five eastern as well,
and this is in the NFC LA rams minus eight
and a half for a public side this week. A
lot of uncertainty how this game might play out, though,
and I'll explain it to you now. It's dependent on
the Saturday night outcomes on several levels. And as I said,
I'm doing this video heading into Saturday morning for you
always like to get it up nice and early and
by Saturday afternoon fade the public. Otherwise people say, Steve,
where is it? Steve, where is it? Don't forget click
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fade the public style and every single NFL playoff game
starting next week. I've given you every Bowl game this season,
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I will keep these videos coming for you each and
every day. Now, as I'm telling you, I'm recording this
before the Saturday games. If Seattle wins, they got about
a fifty five percent chance of winning now as a
two and a half point road favorite. If Seattle wins,
and the Rams have something to play for. Now, if
the Niners pull the slight upset forty five percent chance,
the Rams have nothing to play for because if San
Fran wins, they get the one seed, Seattle automatically gets
the five seed, the Rams will be locked into the
sixth seed. However, if Seattle wins, and it's so slightly
above fifty percent chance they will, then Seattle gets the
one seed for the NFC playoffs, and the Rams win,
they move up to the five seed and San Fran
falls all the way to the sixth seeds. So, once again,
if San Francisco pulls the upset, the Rams have nothing
to play for. But if Seattle wins the game as
a slight favorite on Saturday night, the Rams can move
from the sixth seed to the fifth seed. Why would
they want to do that? Well, I think they probably
would because they would play the NFC South winner. It's
going to either be the Panthers or Buccaneers. Once again,
either the Buccaneers or Panthers are going to be the
four seed. As the worst division winner, Rams would much
rather play at one of those squads, play at Tampa
Carolina than at Chicago or Philly. So, once again, depending
on that late Saturday night game, Rams have a lot
to play for. Now, this line is obviously going to
go higher if if Seattle wins the game, the Rams
have something to play for. This line will probably be
double digits by Sunday. And by the way, this line
will probably be off the board at most sports books
while the game is taking place. If San Francisco pulls
the upset, this line will be a lot less than
minus eight, because then you start thinking the Rams might
sit everybody. But even if San fran gets the one
seed and the Rams are locked into the sixth seed,
I still think they're going to play for something. Now.
If they can move up into the fifth seat, I
think they definitely play hard but either way, I don't
feel like they want to go in the playoffs with
two bad tastes in their mouth after back to back losses.
They blew the fourteen point lead at Seattle in the
second half and then they were down twenty one to
nothing at a halftime, out scored the Falcons twenty four
to six in the second half. I think they look
to carry some of them momentum into the first half.
So here again, very similar situation. If you're going to
play the Rams, not the minus eight and a half
or whatever it might be by Sunday. First half right
now is five and a half a little pricey, But
the first quarter line, just like the Buffalo game, is
minus two and a half. Now if the Rams have
something to play for, if Seattle wins and this line
goes to double digits, and that line might be three
three and a half first quarter, I only like the
first quarter at minus three or less, but at two
and a half minus three Rams first quarter makes a
lot of sense even if they have nothing to play for,
because I think they'll want to, least like the preseason,
once again, come out to make a solid effort. So
here's a situation very difficult to say if we should
play or fade the public because we don't know the
circumstances of the Saturday games. But I think either way,
the Rams probably want to play well early and then
maybe they pulled their foot off the gas, So first
quarter or first half line might be the way to
attack it with the Rams. And once again last week
playing these non playoff teams like the Cardinals in this
one or the Jets did go five and one against
the spread, but we got you unique situations where both
the Rams and Bills do someone have something to play
for in the line is probably several points anywhere from
a field goal to a touchdown, less it would have
been in a regular game. So it's a tricky week
for the fade the public data. But those are the
two public plays on Sunday, the Buffalo Bills minus eight
and the Rams currently minus eight and a half. We'll
see where that line is after the Saturday night results.
And of course the forty nine ers on Saturday plus
the one and a half to two and a half
is also your public dog of the week. So three
public plays Niners on Saturday, Bills and Rams on Sunday. Hey,
we'll see how the regular season finishes sixty percent fade
in the public. This year, I put a little bit
of an asterisk maybe next to Week eighteen here, and
same thing as I do with Week one, right, you know,
I always say Week one is a semi preseason. Well,
Week eighteen's kind of like the preseason as well. We've
come full circle here at the end of the NFL
regular season. I will continue, though, to give you the
public data. In fact, I'm gonna give you every NFL
playoff game free. You know I did it last year
for every NCAA March Madness game, every NBA playoff game
I gave you. Last year, I gave you all the
postseason bowl games in college playoff games. I'll continue to
do so next week. I'm gonna give you every NFL
playoff game. I'll ask is a quick thumbs up like
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and tell me right now, do you wont every NFL
game free in the playoffs? Here in the videos along
with the public data. And I will do it because
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What plays do you like this Sunday in the NFL?
What are your top plays on the week eighteen card.
By the way, if you want my personal best bets
my strongest plays for week eighteen, they're posted on my
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