WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>There's a lot of stuff happening, peace steals, trade deals,

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<v Speaker 1>tax deals. It's stuff like that. Check you in often

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<v Speaker 1>for all this stuff. You need to know this stuff

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<v Speaker 1>on fifty five KRCD talkstation eight oh five, the fifty

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<v Speaker 1>five KRCD talk station. It is that time of the

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<v Speaker 1>week we get the inside scoop from bright Bart News.

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<v Speaker 1>I'll always start by reminding folks to bookmark the site

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<v Speaker 1>b R e I t baart dot com. Great stuff there,

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<v Speaker 1>particularly stuff from my guests Joel Pollock. Joel, welcome back

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<v Speaker 1>to the morning show. My friend. It's always a pleasure

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<v Speaker 1>talking with you.

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<v Speaker 2>Always good to talk with you as well.

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<v Speaker 1>And expert on things Israel we're talking about. The situation

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<v Speaker 1>is unfolding rapidly now. I woke up this morning very

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<v Speaker 1>excited to read that they had negotiated a ceasefire. Iran

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<v Speaker 1>Israel going to put their guns down and play nicely together.

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<v Speaker 1>We can talk about what that might mean in the

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<v Speaker 1>long term. But over the course of the morning I

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<v Speaker 1>find out that Iran launched a barrage of missiles at

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<v Speaker 1>Israel after agreeing to the ceasefire, and of course necessitating

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<v Speaker 1>Israel to mounter. Apparently, Trump was screaming at both sides.

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<v Speaker 1>I've got, you know, different quotes and posts on true

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<v Speaker 1>social media. But Israel apparently has recently decided to pull

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<v Speaker 1>its planes back, apparently not bombing them. What in the

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<v Speaker 1>hell is going on here, Joel block Well.

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<v Speaker 2>Trump announced the ceasefire yesterday and Israel accepted the ceasefire.

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<v Speaker 2>Iran said it would not accept the ceasefire but would

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<v Speaker 2>stop firing at Israel if Israel stopped firing in Iran,

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<v Speaker 2>so effectively, it did accept the ceasefire.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>What then happened is what usually happens in most wars

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<v Speaker 2>before a ceasefire, which is that the two militaries scramble

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<v Speaker 2>to make sure that they achieve certain objectives before the

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<v Speaker 2>ceasefire takes effect.

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<v Speaker 1>So Israel was.

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<v Speaker 2>Attacking Iranian military targets and targets associated with the Iranian regime,

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<v Speaker 2>and Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel. The Iranian fire

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<v Speaker 2>continued through the ceasefire deadline, so it actually fired beyond

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<v Speaker 2>the ceasefire, but Israel ignored that. Iran also managed to

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<v Speaker 2>get one of its missiles through Israel's defenses, and it

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<v Speaker 2>hit an apartment building and murdered for Israeli's wounded many others.

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<v Speaker 2>That caused a huge amount of anguish in Israel, right,

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<v Speaker 2>and it really cast a pall over what should have

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<v Speaker 2>been a day of celebration that the war was over

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<v Speaker 2>and that it had been successful. Then there was KLM

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<v Speaker 2>for several hours, and Iran then fired two ballistic missiles

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<v Speaker 2>at Israel. Both of the missiles were intercepted, but it

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<v Speaker 2>was a clear and flagrant violation of the ceasefire. So

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<v Speaker 2>the Israeli said, Okay, we have to respond to this

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<v Speaker 2>because otherwise Hern's just gonna violate the ceasefire whenever it

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<v Speaker 2>wants to, right. So Israel then sent pilots to conduct

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<v Speaker 2>an airstrike on some target or targets in Tehran, and

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<v Speaker 2>Trump blew up and made some pretty off color remarks

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<v Speaker 2>on camera. Yeah, he basically blamed both sides, and he

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<v Speaker 2>claimed that Israel had violated the ceasefire. He said that

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<v Speaker 2>if Israel carried out the air strike, it would violate

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<v Speaker 2>the ceasefire. But it's not really a violation of the ceasefire.

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<v Speaker 2>To respond to a violation of the ceasefire, so.

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<v Speaker 1>That Joel, I mean, it's the natural logical thing for

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<v Speaker 1>Israel or do you know, Okay, you shoot at me,

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<v Speaker 1>We're coming back at you. And we've already proven we

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<v Speaker 1>can be very successful when we do it.

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<v Speaker 2>I can understand Trump's frustration. He wants there to be

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<v Speaker 2>calm because he has broader goals in mind, and he

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't want the war to continue. He doesn't want the

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<v Speaker 2>United States to get drawn into the war. He wants

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<v Speaker 2>to preserve what has been a success for both the

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<v Speaker 2>United States and Israel. At the same time, there has

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<v Speaker 2>to be more outrage at what Iran is doing. I

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<v Speaker 2>said this last night. Perhaps I should have said it publicly,

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<v Speaker 2>but I said it to colleagues that after Iran hit

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<v Speaker 2>the Israeli apartment building, the President really should have condemned

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<v Speaker 2>Iran's attacks in moral terms. His primary concern was the ceasefire,

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<v Speaker 2>and that's understandable, but there really had to be a

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<v Speaker 2>strong condemnation of what Iran had done. Israel is attacking

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<v Speaker 2>military targets and the regime Iran is attacking civilians, and

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<v Speaker 2>there really needed to be a strong condemnation of what

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<v Speaker 2>Iran had done so that Israel would feel that it

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<v Speaker 2>didn't need to respond, that it didn't have to restore

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<v Speaker 2>its deterrent in order to protect its civilians. A democracy, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>a democracy cannot sit and do nothing when innocent civilians

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<v Speaker 2>are attacked. It just is not an option. And I

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<v Speaker 2>think Trump knows that he's just trying to preserve the

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<v Speaker 2>greater piece, which again is understandable. I think this all

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<v Speaker 2>blows over because I do think the ceasefire will hold,

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<v Speaker 2>and I also think that the strong relationship between the

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<v Speaker 2>two governments of Israel and the United States is just

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<v Speaker 2>stronger than it's ever been. So I get the frustration.

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<v Speaker 2>I think this is a minor blip, But at the

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<v Speaker 2>same time, there really needs to be an acknowledgement that

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<v Speaker 2>the Iranian regime is a Nazi like regime that didn't

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<v Speaker 2>try to achieve any real military objectives before the ceasefire deadline.

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<v Speaker 2>It just tried to kill as many civilians as it could. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>and that's what we're dealing with here.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's like October seventh. It was just done via

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<v Speaker 1>Iranian proxies in the form of a terrorist operation. But

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<v Speaker 1>those are just innocent women, children, grandmothers, and I mean

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<v Speaker 1>non military targets. It was an outrage. It's just an

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<v Speaker 1>offense against humanity. It isn't even warfare, it's just murdering

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<v Speaker 1>innocent people. So with that backdrop and recognizing the Iranian

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<v Speaker 1>the theatocracy that is Iran and its leadership is really

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<v Speaker 1>predicated on the eradication of Israel. What does a cease

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<v Speaker 1>fire mean long term? If they're not bombing each other,

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<v Speaker 1>sorry about that, and then they realize they had my

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<v Speaker 1>volume on. But if they're not bombing each other, does

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<v Speaker 1>that mean that they're going to play nicely together and

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<v Speaker 1>just coexist peacefully into the future. I just I find

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<v Speaker 1>that hard to swallow.

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<v Speaker 2>The long term trajectory is that Iran becomes weaker and

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<v Speaker 2>weaker and the Iranian regime collapses. There's no situation in

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<v Speaker 2>which Iran can continue running itself the way it has

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<v Speaker 2>while losing a war to a much smaller country, while

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<v Speaker 2>losing its nuclear weapons program, while remaining isolated. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>they've already alienated most of the countries in the region,

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<v Speaker 2>the Arab Muslim countries in the region. But now they've

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<v Speaker 2>also proven to Russia and China that they're not a

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<v Speaker 2>very good investment. So the Aranian regime is basically cornered,

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<v Speaker 2>and over time it's going to have to collapse. I

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<v Speaker 2>don't think anything good comes out of this war for Iran.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't think that we need to think about questions

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<v Speaker 2>of coexistence or long term peace between the two countries.

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<v Speaker 2>Iran does not want to make peace with Israel, doesn't

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<v Speaker 2>want to make an agreement with the United States. Even

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<v Speaker 2>the Iran deal that Obama organized was not any kind

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<v Speaker 2>of treaty that was signed by both sides. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>it was a treaty for I think constitutional purposes. It

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<v Speaker 2>should have been ratified by the Senate, but there was

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<v Speaker 2>no agreement where the two sides sat down. The Iranian regime,

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<v Speaker 2>let's understand this. The Iranian regime is founded on an

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<v Speaker 2>ideological commitment to destroying America and destroying Israel. Yeah, they

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<v Speaker 2>will not talk to anybody, they will not acknowledge the

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<v Speaker 2>existence of Israel, and they will not sit down with

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<v Speaker 2>the United States in any kind of friendly or the

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<v Speaker 2>legitimate manner. And they're just they're fanatical. So you know,

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<v Speaker 2>we just have to accept there's not going to be

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<v Speaker 2>some kind of movement toward peace and prosperity until the

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<v Speaker 2>regime is out of the way. Meanwhile, the rest of

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<v Speaker 2>the region is going to try to move on and

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<v Speaker 2>you'll see an expansion that I think of ties between

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<v Speaker 2>Israel and the Sunni Arab States. But nothing's going to happen,

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<v Speaker 2>in ironic except the slow demise of the Iranian regime

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<v Speaker 2>I think.

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<v Speaker 1>Fair enough, and so Iran safe to say is not

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<v Speaker 1>going to be joining the Abraham Accords.

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<v Speaker 2>Well not under this regime.

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<v Speaker 1>It will in the future. Now thinking about that, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>there's always uncertainty with regime change, and I know Donald

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<v Speaker 1>Trump is encouraging and I think his post the other

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<v Speaker 1>day about if current Ibranian regime is unable to make

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<v Speaker 1>Iran great again, why wouldn't there be regime change? He's

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<v Speaker 1>not advocating for us to create that regime change is

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<v Speaker 1>I think that was a shout out to the Iranian

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<v Speaker 1>people that they can control their own destiny, because by

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<v Speaker 1>all accounts, the vast majority of the Iranian people don't

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<v Speaker 1>like living under this theocracy.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, look, there's no clear alternative to the Iranian regime

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<v Speaker 2>right now, right, You're right that most Iranians don't like

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<v Speaker 2>their government. At the same time, the Iranian regime has

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<v Speaker 2>been very good at eliminating all the alternatives. You have

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<v Speaker 2>the son of the former Shah living in exile in

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<v Speaker 2>the DC area, who plans to return. Whether that means

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<v Speaker 2>a monarchy or a transition to democracy, he says he's

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<v Speaker 2>a democrat, a lowercase key, so who knows. I think

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<v Speaker 2>it's going to take a while to figure out what

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<v Speaker 2>post regime Iran really ought to look like. But it's

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<v Speaker 2>not our concern right now. It's not something Trump wants

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<v Speaker 2>to get involved with. It's not something Israel wants to

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<v Speaker 2>get involved with, even though they want to destabilize and

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<v Speaker 2>weaken the regime. And Trump's right, you know, if the

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<v Speaker 2>Iranian regime can't function the way a normal country should function, white,

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<v Speaker 2>why shouldn't there be regime change. It's just not going

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<v Speaker 2>to be up to us. I think the best we

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<v Speaker 2>can do is to try to get whatever factions of

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<v Speaker 2>the Iranian opposition are accessible to us, get them on

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<v Speaker 2>the same page about what happens next, because the it

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<v Speaker 2>really does have to be a contingency plan so that

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<v Speaker 2>the country doesn't fall apart into warring factions. I think

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<v Speaker 2>the likeliest thing that we might see in the next

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<v Speaker 2>six months is some kind of military coup where the

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<v Speaker 2>Iranian military decides that the Iotolas are leading the country

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<v Speaker 2>down a path of self destruction, and so they step

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<v Speaker 2>in the way the military stepped in in Egypt, and

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<v Speaker 2>they start running the country, and who knows, maybe they

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<v Speaker 2>will be maybe they won't be a transition to democracy,

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<v Speaker 2>But I think there's going to be an authoritarian phase

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<v Speaker 2>before there's a democratic phase, before the results hadn't done.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, that's that's kind of where I was going to

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<v Speaker 1>be heading with our conversation, because that seems like the

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<v Speaker 1>most logical thing. Then you'd have to hope that the

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<v Speaker 1>military didn't embrace the you know, death to America, death

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<v Speaker 1>to Israel philosophy that the Iotola embraced and has been

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<v Speaker 1>been screaming about for well a couple of Iotolas anyway,

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<v Speaker 1>since they overthrow the Shava ran back in the seventies.

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<v Speaker 1>So do you see do you anticipate the military would

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<v Speaker 1>drop that as a political philosophy or ultimate goal the

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<v Speaker 1>existence of the country to destroy America and Israel, which

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<v Speaker 1>obviously is an impossibility, But what would it just be

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<v Speaker 1>like martial law declared in the military would just keep

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<v Speaker 1>the citizenry in line and try to keep commerce and

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<v Speaker 1>industry organized and just and move forward that way.

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<v Speaker 2>I would think so yeah, I think that the Iranian

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<v Speaker 2>military will decide that preserving Iran is more important than

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<v Speaker 2>destroying America. Okay, right now, the Iotola is you know,

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<v Speaker 2>it's a religious cult. Religious cults often destroy themselves. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>the Heaven's Gate cult thirty years ago.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, they all they all committed.

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<v Speaker 2>Suicide because they thought the giant spaceship was coming. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>that's the Iranian regime. They are cult that believes that

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<v Speaker 2>they can bring about the end of the world and

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<v Speaker 2>therefore the salvation of the world. Remember that the end

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<v Speaker 2>of the world is just you know, destruction. It's it's

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<v Speaker 2>the elect get saved and everybody else is doomed to hell.

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<v Speaker 2>And they can bring that about if they destroy themselves

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<v Speaker 2>in the process of destroying the United States. Hitler was

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<v Speaker 2>the same, you know Hitler. Toward the end of the

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<v Speaker 2>Second World War, I mused that maybe it was better

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<v Speaker 2>that the Russians were defeating Germany, because then we would

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<v Speaker 2>know who the superior race was. Hitler was fundamentally a

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<v Speaker 2>racist more than he was a nationalist. He believed in

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<v Speaker 2>the struggle of different races, so at some level he

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<v Speaker 2>was willing to sacrifice Germany to his racial obsessions. That's

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<v Speaker 2>the Iotolis. The Iotolis are prepared to sacrifice Iran for

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<v Speaker 2>their site obsession with the arrival of the twelfth Madi,

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<v Speaker 2>as they put it, in the end of the world.

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<v Speaker 2>And eventually you're going to get some generals who come

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<v Speaker 2>in and say, you know what, we love our country

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<v Speaker 2>and we thought this was the way to serve it.

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<v Speaker 1>But obviously this is not.

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<v Speaker 2>And we love our country more than we hate America.

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<v Speaker 2>We love our country more than we hate is world.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's step in and get some sanity going here, because

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<v Speaker 2>otherwise we're all going to just be dead, and that's

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<v Speaker 2>what's going to happen.

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<v Speaker 1>They did enjoy a much greater peace and prosperity under

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<v Speaker 1>the Shaw. I had a woman w used to cut

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<v Speaker 1>my hair when I lived in Chicago, and she was

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<v Speaker 1>from Iran, and she talked about how wonderful it was.

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<v Speaker 1>It was modern cities and women were not forced to

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<v Speaker 1>wear burkas and cover their faces entirely. And the whole

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<v Speaker 1>thing went to hell after the shaw or the shaw

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<v Speaker 1>was thrown out. So you know, maybe there are people

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<v Speaker 1>who have that recollection and can see a future vision

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<v Speaker 1>for the country along those lines, and that would be great.

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<v Speaker 1>For everyone. I guess I'm kind of curious about the

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<v Speaker 1>broader implications. If Iran pulls the plug or as otherwise

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<v Speaker 1>has regime change, they're no longer state sponsors of the

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<v Speaker 1>terrorist organizations that they've been funding and providing weapons too.

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<v Speaker 1>Does that bring about a broader peace in the Middle

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<v Speaker 1>East generally, or there's still a pro Palestinian pro Palestinian

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<v Speaker 1>state faction out there, We're going to continue to see

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<v Speaker 1>conflict from some other areas.

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<v Speaker 2>Well. In terms of the Palestinians, you know, the last

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<v Speaker 2>remaining part of this war is the in Gaza, and

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<v Speaker 2>there are twenty Israeli hostages who are still in captivity

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<v Speaker 2>fifty total if you include those who are already dead.

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<v Speaker 2>The Palestinians have their fate in their own hands. If

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<v Speaker 2>they want to live in peace with Israel, then they will.

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<v Speaker 2>But if they continue trying to destroy Israel, they will

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<v Speaker 2>also destroy themselves. And what needs to happen now is

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<v Speaker 2>the Hamas leadership needs to let the hostages go and

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<v Speaker 2>find a way out of Gaza and allow ordinary Palestinians

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<v Speaker 2>a chance to rebuild their lives with the help of

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<v Speaker 2>the United States, with the help of Israelis, with the

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<v Speaker 2>help of Arab allies. I think that Palestinians can have

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<v Speaker 2>a better life. It's different than having a state. I

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<v Speaker 2>think the Palestinian state is a dead idea, at least

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<v Speaker 2>for a generation, because these Raelis have seen what Palestinians

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<v Speaker 2>do with self government and basically they try to kill

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<v Speaker 2>Israelis and that's just not acceptable obviously to the israel

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<v Speaker 2>So I think you'll have some people in this country

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<v Speaker 2>and elsewhere we all free palace and all that. Some

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<v Speaker 2>will know what it means, some will not know what

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<v Speaker 2>it means, but it's really for them about symbolic confrontations

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<v Speaker 2>with symbols of authority. It has nothing to do with

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<v Speaker 2>reality on the ground of them. At least it's the

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<v Speaker 2>new fashionable left wing thing, and then six months later

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<v Speaker 2>it'll be something else. So I think we shouldn't really

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<v Speaker 2>take it seriously. The reality is that the Palestinians do

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<v Speaker 2>not care about their own future as a movement to

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<v Speaker 2>take any serious practical steps toward achieving any kind of progress,

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<v Speaker 2>and it's just not going to be possible to do

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<v Speaker 2>anything while Palestinian terrorists still hold Israeli hostages and still

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<v Speaker 2>try to run the lives of other Palestinians, and I

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<v Speaker 2>think the Guisa phase is now where his war ends,

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<v Speaker 2>and there's going to be a huge amount of pressure

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<v Speaker 2>on Hamas and maybe not the organization itself, maybe individual commanders,

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<v Speaker 2>individual units to give up the hostages they have, and

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<v Speaker 2>once that happens, I think they're working it fair enough.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, real quick here and random, we're out of time, Joe.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm to tell my producer, I'm aware of the time

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<v Speaker 1>I just had to. China seems to I think they

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<v Speaker 1>enjoy the fact that we're so busy dealing with problems

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<v Speaker 1>in the Middle East that were not as focused on

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<v Speaker 1>the South China Sea and Taiwan, and they appreciate that

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<v Speaker 1>our resources are being soaked up in the Middle East

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<v Speaker 1>dealing with these challenges as they have been for years

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<v Speaker 1>and years and years trying to play any role in this.

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<v Speaker 1>Real quick, Joel, I.

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<v Speaker 2>Think China had played a role, and I think they're

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<v Speaker 2>going to step back because I think their investments have

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<v Speaker 2>gone bad. You know, they supported Iran, they even met

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<v Speaker 2>with Hamas. Yeah, after October seventh. I think they thought

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<v Speaker 2>things would go a certain way. You know. The one

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<v Speaker 2>thing nobody counted on was the resilience of the ordinary

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<v Speaker 2>Israeli soldier. And it was that man or that woman,

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<v Speaker 2>often a reserved excuse me, often a reservist away from

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<v Speaker 2>their families. That was the force that nobody reckoned with. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>and that really turned the tide in the middle. And

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<v Speaker 2>I think the Chinese realized that investing in your on

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<v Speaker 2>is not is not a good one.

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<v Speaker 1>Joel Paulock. Always enjoy our conversation. A pleat. You appreciate

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<v Speaker 1>your very thoughtful analysis on this complex issue, and I'll

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<v Speaker 1>look forward to having you back on. Remind my listeners

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<v Speaker 1>brightbart dot com and check it out and bookmark the website. Joel,

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<v Speaker 1>take care and have a wonderful week, my friend.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you.

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<v Speaker 1>Tobe A twenty two fifty five K see the talk

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<v Speaker 1>station stick around, be right back fifty five The talk

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<v Speaker 1>station