Speaker 1: NFL Week four is here. We're gonna hit on all
those primetime games, including that doubleheader on Monday Night Football.
We're gonna check in with VR see what he's got
for the Steam Report. Those barking dogs are gonna keep
on barkin this week. Is the deli still open? It's
been red hot. Maybe Marco is gonna mix it up
and give us a trap game, And of course we're
gonna follow it all up with those best bets on
the next episode of bet On It. Kelly Stewart here
with Marco DiAngelo and Yanni the Greek. Good morning to
all of you out there on the West Coast. It's
a beautiful day and it's NFL Week four. I know
I'm pretty happy because I went four and won last
week in my super contest place, and the one loser
was just that Marco play, and that came to the
hands of the Seattle Seahawks. I played against him, thinking, hey,
short week divisional game on deck Thursday Night football. But
I was dead wrong. That game got out of control,
and it got out of control early. Now Seattle heads
to Arizona as a one and a half point favorite
on Thursday Night. Total forty three and a half. Talk
to me about why you like the home underdog here.
Speaker 2: Well, Kelly, everybody's gonna overreact to you know what they
saw with Seattle winning in a blowout. The week before that,
they went on the road in Pittsburgh. So now all
of a sudden, Seattle is a world beater. Let's just
pump the brakes there. Arizona, you know, put them on
that long list of teams last week that took a
gut punch at the end of the game. I mean,
I can't remember an NFL Sunday where more games were
decided on, you know, final plays of the game. And
we had some absolutely bizarre endings to these games, and
Arizona was one of them. They were in position to
beat San Francisco in a key division game, and generally speaking,
when you lose a game like that, you worry about
losing the same game twice. But the fact that this
game is back at home, it is a Thursday night,
it is a division game, and it is a game
that they absolutely need. I mean, obviously, anytime you're playing
a division game, the need is there for both teams.
But given the fact that they lost last week to
San Francisco, a division opponent. This makes this game a
little bit more sense of urgency for Arizona because if
you lose to both of your division rivals out of
the gate, it's going to put you behind the eight
ball for the rest of the season looking up at
those other teams. Arizona did struggle to move the ball
last week as it was a low scoring game. But
let's not confuse the Seattle defense with the San Francisco defense.
We know the forty nine Ers have had their problems
on offense this year because of all of the injuries,
but that is still a very stout defense with the
forty nine ers. Seattle has had back to back easy wins,
as I alluded to, and part of it was one
they played probably one of the two worst teams in
the NFL this year at the Saints, and then the
week before you talk about gift wrapping a game for them,
that's what the Pittsburgh Steelers did. Now they've got to
play on a short week on the road. We know
that the home team has the advantage on these Thursday
night games on short week Now, given that it is
a division game, that is neutralized a little bit because
you know your opponent well you face them twice a year.
I'm not going to buy into the Sam Darnold experience
just yet. Let's see what he does in a primetime game.
We've seen him here footsteps and see ghosts and everything
else in big games before. And for Arizona, they did
suffer a little bit of a setback last week offensively,
as they lost James Connor the running back for the
rest of the season, which means Kyler Murray's gonna have
to step it up. And by stepping it up, I
mean we're gonna need both his arm and his legs
in this one, and I think he can get that
job done. I'm gonna take the home team here. I
think the wrong We've seen this line cross over, and
that's because of what people saw last We've seen history
has shown us that's a mistake when you overreact to
one ballgame. Arizona opened to favorite and now as a
slight underdog. I am on Arizona in this one. I
think they get the job done and I'm sure later
in the week VR will be talking about it if
this line stays the way it is and gets to
that one and a half or two on the Seattle side,
you know, that there'll be teasers with Arizona as well
for me on Sunday, or excuse me on Thursday if
we stayed till Thursday, hooking with something till Sunday. But
it's Arizona twenty four to twenty for Thursday night and
I'll have them in teasers.
Speaker 1: All right, guys, I appreciate you hanging out with us
here every single week. I'm bet on it. And if
you like the show, give us the thumbs up, hit
that subscribe button so you never miss another episode. Something
you want to see done differently, drop it in the
comment section. Love a play, hate it, tell us all
about it. We'll all jump in the comment section and
get in there with you, guys. Let's go Sunday night football.
Green Bay now up to a seven point favorite at Dallas.
Total forty seven and a half. And I had to
go to my friends at the gold Sheat for this one.
By the way, the gold Sheat right now nine bucks
for everyone, no coupon code required, wt Dot buzz backslash GTS.
And the reason why I went to the gold Sheet
is because if you guys, remember last week, I told
you to take Cleveland and this is the exact same
situation they gave me to play Cleveland. But this week
is a play on the Cowboys. When playing in the
first half of the season, home underdogs of at least
seven points have gone nineteen one and two over against
the spread over the last three seasons. Now, I know
a lot of you guys are gonna go, oh, Kelly,
you're too optimistic on this Cowboys team. George Pickens was
supposed to be great. He's supposed to compliment Ceedee Lamb,
who's now out for the next three to four weeks.
They've got injuries on the offensive line. Diggs wasn't able
to finish against Chicago. That defense got gashed by Caleb
Williams and the Bears, but Javonte Williams is able to
get the running game going. I do think that the
Cowboys offensive line is going to be better this week
against the Packers. I know it looks scary take a
team that just got the crap beat out of them
by a mediocre Bears team, but this is the spot
to take them here at home. Make sure you get
the seven shop around, and hey, maybe this one even
gets to seven and a half and you can tease
down the Packers and hope for that middle and hit
both sides. V R. We're gonna let you start off
with the first Monday Night football game. The Jets are
a three point underdog at Miami and the total is
three and a half.
Speaker 3: Yeah, five, three and one heading into this week on
the show, hopefully we turn a little profit this week.
This is gonna be a tough one to bet, but
I see absolutely no reason to not take the Jets
on Monday Night. This is one of those coin flips
that you get plus money on. Again, it's hard to
argue for either of these teams, so I don't want
to waste a lot of your time. But you're looking
at two teams that have allowed a ton of points defensively,
so look at the other for sure, especially with the
recency bias on both of them. But with that said,
the difference is number one. You look at the passing
success rate. These quarterbacks are right next to each other.
Make sure you check the seed that what's it called
Taylor starting for the Jets because of the injury situation,
but so far it's pretty much confirmed that he will.
But just make sure a bit. With that said, again,
passing success rate, they're right next to each other forty
five point three and forty six point four. Okay, again,
the biggest difference between these two teams has the Jets
could realistically be a two to one football team. Both
of their losses come by a combined four points. There's
a lot of re there's a lot of randomness involved
with that, whether it's turnovers, penalties. But when you have
two losses by combined four points, again, the Jets on
paper are better than the record reflects, and that's the
kind of team you want to back, especially in the
dog position where a team like Miami owing three out
they've underperformed against the betting market. There's absolutely zero reasons
you should get excited about wanting the late points with Miami.
You're more or less paying for the name because and
the fate of the Jets, where we're just so conditioned
to expect the Jets to just suck, and they do
at oh and three, But the Dolphins are not any
better also sitting in oh and three and again well
underperforming the betting market. So yeah, I like the Jets.
I think this is a money line bet. Again, it's
a key of three key numbers, so you got to
take it, but I think it's a coin flip game.
Miami's got less than a two point home field advantage,
so I just don't see why they're that key three favorite.
Give me the Jets as the TV pick for a week.
Speaker 1: All right, Marco DiAngelo, this is going to be an
interesting one. Speaking of teaser spots, Cincinnati up to a
seven and a half point underdog at Denver forty four
and a half. Here, talk to me about why you
like the under.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Kelly talked about a teaser spot. How many teasers
are going to be tied to Denver getting them down
to one and a half. I think this line will
probably go up during the week as they try to
get the teaser blocker in play to slow that down
because there'll be so many teasers tied to Monday Night
and moneyline parlays to the Broncos. And why not, because
the public's gonna look at Cincinnati and they just remember
the last thing they saw, and the last thing they
saw was Cincinnati just absolutely get blown out in Minnesota
forty eight to ten. I enjoyed that when that was
our best bet here on the show. Last week Minnesota,
we had a good five and one with the big
six plays between the college and NFL show. So let's
keep it going this week. But I look at this
one in Cincinnati. You know they are going to be
up against it now. That score last week, Yeah they
got killed. But five turnovers are gonna do that. You
go on the road and you turn the ball over
five times, you're gonna get blown out. And that's what happened.
Cincinnati has had zero running game through the first three games.
They've rushed the ball for forty six, forty eight, and
fifty three yards. I don't care who your quarterback is.
When you are that one dimensional, you're gonna have problems
moving the football. Now throw in that you've got backup quarterback.
Because Joe burrows out. This offense is going to struggle.
So why don't I just go ahead and take Denver
and lay the points because they should blow them out. Well,
Denver's in a bad scheduling spot. They're coming off not one,
but two gut wrenching losses back to back weeks. If
you remember two weeks ago, they look like they had
the game one against Indianapolis when Indianapolis missed the game
winning field goal. Oh wait, there was a penalty Indy
got to kick it again and won on the second kick.
Then last week, you know they're winning the whole game
against the Chargers, Chargers come back tie it went on
the final play of the game field goal once again.
So yeah, two devastating losses in Oh, by the way,
look at who they play next week. They've got a
game with the defending champs, the Philadelphia Eagles. And oh
that game's on the road, off a short week, on
a Monday night, and that's gonna be their third road
game in four weeks start the season. That's pretty tough
schedule for the Broncos. So what am I alluding to?
I'm alluding to that the coach, Sean Payton's gonna want
to get in and get out as quickly as possible.
I see them running the football and if you look
at this Denver offense, Bo Nicks, he's suffering the sophomore Jinks.
There's no question about that. They have not moved the football.
You don't want to lay over a touchdown with the
team that in their three games so far scored twenty,
twenty eight and twenty points. That's not a recipe for
laying over a touchdown. But I don't trust the Bengals
enough to grab them. So I'm gonna go under the
total in this one. I don't see Cincinnati having success
against the stellar Denver defense, and with the struggles that
the Broncos have had and being satisfied with shortening the
game and getting out and getting on to next week
in the Philadelphia Eagles, I'm gonna go under the total here, Kelly,
let's take this one under the forty four and a half.
Speaker 1: All right, let's get right into the steam report VR
Oddslogic dot Com back slash Kelly in Vegas. If you
guys are looking, just sign up. You get a free
week here. If you guys use my promo code, so
make sure you do that and if not, like VR said,
use the wager Talk free Live Odds page. VR. I'd
like to ask you a question before you get into
the NFL c report for week four? What should people
do with this information?
Speaker 3: Exactly what I do with it? All right, I already
had put in my work, so I have everything circled
on what I like, my sides and my totals, and
then I wait for the information to come in to
see what the groups that I provide accounts for are
betting when they come in and bet one of the
signs that I like, now I know gives me the
confidence to release it as a premium play to my subscribers,
gives me the confidence to add more risk for myself
because I already get a percentage of the accounts that
I bet for them, But these kind of plays I
bet more on for myself, like considered premium plays, and
I recommend that the betters out there do the exact
same thing. You don't have to agree with everything. In fact,
you should disagree with a lot of it, but it's
what you agree on that you want to be getting
down on, and more importantly, you want to make sure
it's at the number as well, because again, if they're
laying minus three and now it's minus four and a half,
it's no longer the same bet. So it's all different
pieces of the puzzle. But when you put those pieces together,
when it all falls nicely, you get the perfect picture
and you cash a ticket. So that's how the information
has been valuable to me. That's why I tell my
subscribers the exact same thing. And with the steam Room,
I give enough volume that you don't have to piggyback everything.
So as long as it's the numbers there, you're getting
a good number and you agree with it, then you
should be have the confidence you're placing a good plus
e B bet. Again, it's been good, good in the
NFL so far in the regular season. We didn't have
a good preseason, which is rare. Usually preseasons when the
betting steone gets do good. They just did not have
a good season this year, at least the ones that
I work with. But the regular season has been good.
It's put me at number one in profit a wager
Talk so far, so i'll take it.
Speaker 1: So far.
Speaker 2: This week, it's a little slow.
Speaker 3: Most of the actions I talked about on wager Talk
today and on Last Call comes in later in the week.
With the NFL injury report is very key with a
lot of the NFL steam and more importantly, very little
of the volume is on sides and totals. The majority
of the money starts coming in on those team totals,
first quarter bets, second half bets, first half bets, those
smaller market derivatives is where they do the majority of
the damage. But here are some of the sides and
totals that they got out ahead of for this week
two fifty one Minnesota the look ahead at two and
a half. Again, the limits are low, but they took
the two and a half and here's what you want
to look through. Follow through. They followed through and also
laid the one and a half with Minnesota. That's as
legit as you're going to get. Two fifty three Philadelphia
laid the two and a half look ahead and laid
the key three. Another key number they laid to sixty seven. Jacksonville,
San Francisco, laid the over forty five look ahead, followed through,
went over forty six as well. That's opposite the public
I almost use that, but I did. It was able
to get that forty six, and at forty seven, I said,
let me wait till Sunday. Public money may push that
down because I'm already seeing under money there to seventy
six Green Bay the look ahead four and a half,
got the six, and then laid the six and a
half after the weekend, and also under forty eight there
and finally Monday night key number no surprise. Two eighty Denver,
Broncosus six six and a half was the look ahead
and then the seven when it opened up. That's why
you're looking at seven and a half's right now, But
pay attention and see later in the week or gain
day more importantly, especially if the books need teaser protection
and bump this up to that nine range, then rest
a short. Those that laid the six six and a
half should come back and attempt the middle with the
other side VR.
Speaker 1: I want to follow up on that really quickly, just
because I've heard people tell me these lines don't matter. Right,
So the super book puts out of graphic late August,
and I like to use it for Survivor. Right, here's
what the lines would have been. Here's what the lions
are now. And you mentioned the look aheadline. So this
line for the Packers game was green Bay minus one
and a half. Right, let's call it August twenty fifth.
Then you mentioned the look ahead was four and a half.
Green Bay loses to Cleveland Dallas. It was fourteen fourteen
in the second quarter. They just never scored again. Their
defense gave up some long bombs to Caleb Williams. Now,
the line's up to seven. Should we just completely discredit
that line from August?
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, great, great question, because usually if that was
the case, it would be dogger pass right now for us,
as you know, looking for plus CV bets, it would
be impossible for us to look at the green Bay side.
If thinking just a few weeks ago, I could have
laid minus one. But that's a completely different market. It's
a completely different time, and the objective of those betters
is also different. Like a lot of those guys that
did get down on Green Bay, it wasn't even a
handicap of green Bay. It was a handicap of where
that line's going to be when game day rolls around.
And obviously they were correct those that laid the Green Bay,
but the limits are smaller. It's not like universal worldwide.
So I don't put a lot of stock in it
because they're just so awful. Lot of times like summer
are pretty close and pretty accurate. But you see it
in college football at the time where there's six seven,
eight point differences by week four, five or six, just
because things don't play out the way we project them,
especially in football where there's just so many injuries and
just so many different factors in play. You know, there's
so many pieces of a puzzle of a football team,
and I think you shouldn't put too much stock on
those August numbers. Don't let that stop you from betting
a team and thinking like, oh dude, that now it's
a six point line movement. Now it's a line movement
off the look ahead, not off the August number.
Speaker 1: Awesome stuff. Let's get into those barking dogs. This has
been our best segment, at least as a trio. Marco's
Deli has been very very good. F R has been
cashing those best bets. Me not so much, but I
have been nailing these barking dogs. Marco last week, let's
talk about it. Last week, you would have used this
team for the Delhi, right, Why are you using him
this week as a barking dog.
Speaker 2: Well, you know, we want to get a dog that
we think has a good shot of winning outright, and
this is a team could have been a sandwich spot
as well this week. And I'll explain later. But I've
got a better game when we get to it later
and tell you why we're using that one. But full disclosure. Okay,
let's start this with Jacksonville. And I've got to say
the Jacksonville Jaguars have been a colaw pain in my ass. Okay,
two weeks ago, I go against them with Cincinnati, and
Cincinnati did everything but win that game, to go up
and down the field, turnovers end up killing them at
the end, and we lose that game the only time,
but we weren't covering it in the final eighteen seconds.
Then last week, what happens. Well, I go against Jacksonville.
I've got Euston and that full disclosure was my five
percent play. The score was tied ten ten. We had
just completed a pass that was going to give us
first and ten inside the twenty yard line with under
four minutes to play, but as he tried to extend
the play, Nico Collins gets hit and fumbles the football.
Jacksonville recovers. We could have ran the clock down, got
game winning field goal or a touchdown. No, we turn
it over and jack goes down and scores to beat
us in that one. So why am I trying this again? Well,
it's the spot and you look at this one. The
forty nine ers, somehow, despite all the injuries that they
have had, are sitting at three and oh. More importantly,
they're two and oh in their division. And here's where
the sandwich part comes up. They're two and oh in
the division. They just got done beating Arizona last week.
They already beat Seattle the first week of the season.
They play their other division rival, the team that most
people expect to challenge them for the division this year,
the Rams next week. So definitely that's a look ahead spot.
Oh when do they play them? Oh they play them
on Thursday Night football next week, so they got to
play in a short week. I think this is a
great spot for Jacksonville to come in and they got
a win that they didn't deserve last week. And I
love taking teams. You hear me talk about it all
the times. Oh, I want to go against the team
that look good in losing. Well, there's a second half
of that. I like to take a team that look
bad in winning because people underestimate him. I'll go ahead
and take Jacksonville plus the points.
Speaker 1: Here.
Speaker 2: The forty nine ers rushed for seventy seven and seventy
three yards in the last two games. You can't be
one dimensional in the NFL in win, especially with a
backup quarterback. And oh, by the way, yeah they won
with a backup quarterback last week. Mac Jones, what do
we always say about injured player theory? When you lose
a quarterback. I like to take the injured team the
first week. Well, they got the win last week with
mac Jones. Now they got to win a second one
without with mac Jones. I'll go against them. Gimme Jacksonville.
Let's see if they stick it to me one more time,
Jacksonville twenty seven to twenty.
Speaker 1: Like Youjacksonville to Marco, they ohs this one. VR, You've
got the I'm gonna call it the wise Guy game
of the week. I think this is going to be
All of the sharts are gonna be on one side,
all of the squares are gonna be on the other.
But I don't know if I trust the New York Giants.
Can you please break this down a little bit and
then I may give you some pushback afterwards.
Speaker 3: Listen, I'm gonna keep it this simple. It's as simple
as this. Bring me Jackson Dart. The Jackson Dark Era
begins on Sunday. That's the key here. I'm coupled with
the Chargers getting some injuries that are starting to mount off,
and this is coming from someone that has a future
on the Chargers. So I have overseason win totals on
the Chargers I have a future on the Chargers to
win the Super Bowl, so it benefits me for the
Chargers to be biased towards them.
Speaker 2: But this is just a really good.
Speaker 3: Spot for the Giants. Also, if you listen to the
narrative of how over the five last five plus years,
West coast teams flying to the East coast, how that
used to be a disadvantage. That's no longer the case now,
how they're covering all that's juice. This line up too
much higher than it should be. The Giants at home
should not be catching six and a half points, almost
a full touchdown through the Chargers, especially with Jackson Dark
coming in. Here's the key that from going from a
your one quarterback to year two, the points is based
on the drop off, not just like who that first
quarterback is and the drop off between what's it called
Dark and what's Russell Wilson right now?
Speaker 2: What is it? Is it really a loss?
Speaker 3: Is it really a negative? Maybe the Russell Wilson if
you look at his whole career. It may be if
we in the future, but as of today, right now,
the way Russell Wilson's playing, how's this a dropoff? His
quarterback rating in The last game was forty three point eight.
Speaker 2: He threw thirty.
Speaker 3: Two attempts eighteen completions for fifty six percent. Against Washington,
he had a fifty nine quarterback rating.
Speaker 2: He threw the ball thirty.
Speaker 3: Seven times, had seventeen completions for forty five percent completion percentage.
Where again, where's the dropoff? And that's what this line reflects,
A big drop off. I get it Darth doesn't have
the pro experience, but he's not there by accident. He's
number their number one pick good career with all miss
USC so you know he's bread to be a starting
quarterback in the NFL. And I think it's it's something
I've learned from Marco almost the injured player theory, where
everyone else knows they have to step up because now
we don't have our starting quarterback. We don't have our
our stud, even though he hasn't been a stud this year.
So I like this, oh and three verse three and oh.
I like the Giants at home. It's only their second
home game, and I think that the Chargers, as well
as they played, the injuries are starting to pole up.
And Hayber, she's gonna regress a little bit to the mean,
he can't, he can't stay perfect. So give me the
six and a half with the Giants. Sprinkle that money line.
This is gonna be the teaser special of the week.
Chargers will be on every teaser and it's a terrible bet.
Even at seven. It's a terrible teaser even if it wins. Uh,
So give me the give me the Giants, New York Giants.
So we're on the Jets and the Giants there, Oh
my gosh, New York parlay.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the New York gross of parlay.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 1: I'm going to push back to this a little bit.
I do agree with you here on the Giants. I
understand this is a terrible spot to lay it with
the Chargers. Here's my problem. Seventeen thirty five and one.
That is the record of NFL rookie starting quarterbacks in
their debut. I understand the pushback is gonna be, we
don't need the Giants to cover, We just or we
don't need the Giants and win. We just need the
Giants to cover. But does that rookie record maybe it
just is like looming in the background, you know what
I mean, Like that's what's going on in the back
of my head.
Speaker 3: I know, no, it's scared.
Speaker 1: Listen.
Speaker 3: Getting a rookie quarterback in the NFL in his first
start is usually a handicappers fade. But I just think
that the spread is the great equalizer here, and I
think that at the very least, the back door is
going to stay open the entire game.
Speaker 1: Listen, I can rest assure you that in the red zone,
he's not going over. Okay, he's not going If Jackson
Dart takes off and his name isn't Russell Wilson, that's
a touchdown that I agree. I agree with the move
to Jackson Dart. I just have some concerns that Russell
looked so good against that awful Dallas defense and this
one day game. I'm with you, all right, let's get
into my barking dog. And I went back and forth
to kind of decide which barking dog I wanted to use,
what I was going to use for my best bet,
and ultimately I decided that the that the Cleveland good
Degree that was last week, that the Indianapolis Colts was
going to be my play. Look, we just talked about
how bad the Giants have looked. Maybe somebody, ohs Daniel
Jones an apology. We'll see how that ends up playing.
But this is more of a play against the Rams.
They're back home now after back to back road games
in that eastern early window. How quickly can they put
that loss behind them. I don't know if you guys
watched End Zone Live with me and the pres and
everybody else on Sunday, but that was that was incredible.
That was a crazy game where millions of dollars change hands.
And I know, I come on here and I complain
about my losses and never say, holy crap, I should
go buy a lotto ticket. I should Cashing that Philadelphia
Eagles ticket was an absolute utter miracle. But I don't
know how quickly Los Angeles can move on from that. Right,
Let's start off with who they've played so far besides
the Eagles, the Titans, and the Dolphins. I think that
their metrics might be a little skewed, but the Colts
unoffened so far. Number two and EPR EPA per play
number two in success rate, number one in EPA per
pass tipt number one in passing success rate, and number
five in EPA per rush attempt. I know that there
is a whole argument that's gonna say, oh, this is
not the time to take the Colts. They're way too overrated.
I think this is the time to take the Colts.
I think you take the Colts, plus they're gonna have
and I think you sprinkle them on that money line. Now, Marco,
normally I would write you a letter and say or
a text message excuse me and say, Marco, you can't
use the same game the VR used or VR you
got to check because Marco had it in the script first.
But I gotta make you answer to this New York
Giants play as well, because again it is the sharp
square play of the week. You both like it. I
know Teddy talked about it on Opening Line Report this week,
didn't say he was gonna necessarily play it, but mentioned
the tough spot here for the Chargers. Tell me why
the deli is closed and you're going with the trap
game of the week here, Well.
Speaker 2: The deli's closed because if I used the Giants as
the sandwich game the health Department, it would have closed
this down. But man, this is the classic trap situation,
and it's all about scheduling and what is in store
for the Chargers, and God bless them if they can
go across country this week and win in New York
after the gauntlet of their first three games of the season.
Then you know what, maybe you better run to the
window and grab some future tickets on them for the
Super Bowl, because that will be quite the accomplishment. And
let's look at what they've had to do. They opened
the season against the Kansas City Chiefs. Okay, the team
that's gone to the Super Bowl three years in a row.
They had to give up a home game to go
to Brazil to play a division game. That should never happen,
that any of these games that you play out of
the country is a division game. Well, that was the
first check mark for getting screwed. Then they come back
after playing the Brazil game, they had to play Monday
night football on the road against the Raiders in Pete
Carroll's coaching debut home debut. Okay, they handled business there,
or maybe we should say the Raiders lost that game
because the Raiders were pathetic in that game. Then what
they have to do after that, They finally get to
get a true home game. They got to play the
Denver Broncos. Everybody's other darling who was going to challenge
Kansas City this year. Well, there was a dogfight. It
was a physical game and way right down to the end,
and they come from behind and kick the game winning
field goal at the gun. How do you pick yourself
up after three grueling games like that? Not to mention,
those were three division games. They have such a leg
up in the AFC West. It isn't funny you beat
all three teams already in your division. Now you go
on the road to play in the Eastern time zone
against an NFC team. How many times have I told
you the least important game on a team schedule every
year is a non conference road game. That's the bottom
of the list. When they get two tie breakers at
the end of the season. There's just no way that
I can see. And if Harbaugh has them ready to play,
God bless him. He's a better motivator then I give
him credit for. But this is just an absolute flat
spot for them. Now there is gonna be a little
bit of a hooplah. Maybe that is what he can
use to get his team sparked. With the fact that
Jackson Dart is starting. You know, it's an unknown commodity
and you say, hey, guys, we can't take them for granted.
But here's the reality of that starting a rookie quarterback.
And Kelly, you put that stat out there, and that
is true. But here's the difference. They have been grooming
him to start. He's seen action, they've brought him in
certain plays the last few games. They've had plays in
their arsenal for him to get his feet wet. You
knew this day was coming. It was just a question
of when, Well the win is now, what do you
prepare for? Yeah, they showed a couple of things on
the gimmick plays they ran with them. Did he even
throw a pass? Everything was a running play. You don't
know what plays they're going to call for him as
the starting quarterback, and I think that gives them an
a little bit of surprise. And also they're playing with
free money here because nobody's gonna expect anything. You're already
zero and three. Give me the Giants. This is a
trap game for the Chargers. I'll take the six points
six and a half, and as VR said, I expect
it to get to seven by Sunday with the public
is only going to bet this game one way. If
you got to hold your nose to get to the window,
go ahead. But I'm taking the Giants all right.
Speaker 1: Oh boy, I'm gonna hold my nose all right, Marco,
because that one makes me very very nervous. That being said,
I don't disagree with both of you guys there. If
you don't disagree with Marco and VR, we have a
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Speaker 2: VR.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna let you go first here, per usual. Tell
me why we're taking the Chiefs.
Speaker 3: I like this yeah, and I actually sent that out
today to subscribers.
Speaker 2: That's why I changed it.
Speaker 3: Made this my best bet four percent.
Speaker 4: If you can get threes out there, if you even
one fifteen at Westgate, but even the two and a
half that are at minus one oh five's again, if
you're not laying more than one thirty, you're good.
Speaker 3: Otherwise take the two and a half. But I don't
think we're gonna need it here with the Chiefs. Bottom line,
this Baltimore team, these are two one in two teams,
but they're both top ten still power rated. That's why
this game really matters.
Speaker 2: The team that goes to two and two is.
Speaker 3: Like still has a season. The one that goes to
one and three, it's going to be really hard to
bounce back. Ford. This is a big, big game, and
we have a Chiefs team even though they're on the road.
You know how Mahomes tends to do. I mean, what's
it called playing at home? Mahomes in a big game.
He's gotten it done for us time and time again.
If you look at the defense of Baltimore, Okay, they
gave up thirty eight to Detroit, a right forty one
to Buffalo, seventeen the Cleveland and you know the most
that Cleveland scored so far this season, seventeen, that was
against Baltimore. Kansas City's gonna be able to finally put
up some points. And this offense isn't as bad as
they're being made out to be. They're still near top
ten in most of the metrics that matter, and I
think against this defense, they're really gonna shine. On the
flip side, I think they're gonna be just fine. Kansas
City top five inefficiency. In fact, they're number three right now,
so I get it. Baltimore is one of the best
offenses in all of the NFL, top five every year,
but they're going on the road and they're playing a
top five defense in the Chiefs. I love Kansas City
in this spot. I think even last week against the Giants,
it was a win where their stock didn't really rise,
like I mean, the Giants were a touchdown away from
back door covering it for a quarter plus. So yeah,
I think this offers a lot of value for the Chiefs.
I will go even as far as saying I think
this should be a pick them at worse. So take
the Chiefs, sprinkle that money line and let's cash your
best bet with the homes in Kansas City on Sunday.
Speaker 1: I do like that side, get to get ahead of
that number. Guys, if you can find a three, check
out oddslogic dot com backslash Kelly in Vegas. If you
guys are looking for a seven day free trial over there,
Marco DiAngelo. I know I mentioned that you and VR
have a promo package up together. What about somebody who's
looking for something for this weekend over at wager talk
dot com and then give me your best bet for
NFL Week four.
Speaker 2: Well, Kelly, the Weekend Warrior package. People absolutely love it.
You get your favorite Kapper forty nine dollars. It locks
you in for every college and NFL play Saturday and Sunday,
and as a bonus, you'll get if they have a
Monday Night football selection as well. Guess what, there's two
Monday Night games this week, not exactly the best Monday
Night games, but you get two of them. I guess
quantity or quantities better than quality for this Monday Night.
And Kelly, we are the last two seasons number two
college and pro combined money one, So check it out.
In five percent plays, we've been dead on. We did
lose one last week, rare one, as we mentioned in
the other show, with the Houston Texans fumbling the game
away for US three turnovers. But we will bounce back
this week. We had a great college week last week,
and let's keep it going. Speaking of keeping it going,
five and one last week with the plays here on
the show, and we're gonna go with the best bet.
And before you start putting in the comments section, oh
he's a homer, No he ain't, because I went against
the Steelers the first two weeks of the season. We
didn't have a play last week with them, but we're
two to zero going against the Steelers. But this week
I'm gonna go with the Pittsburgh Steelers and they're playing
in Now I gotta figure out if I'm gonna get
up at the crack of dawn to watch the Steelers
here on the West Coast on Sunday morning. But this
is a spot where it's as much going against the
Minnesota Vikings as it is taking Pittsburgh. We've seen the
market move in this game. And I always say no
team is as good as their best game, nor are
they as bad as their worst game. And the market
is overreacting to that forty eight to ten win by
the Vikings last week. And remember we had the Vikings
as our best bet, so I enjoyed it. But I'll
be the first to tell you, Yeah, they dominated the game.
Yes they won by a landslide, but that game was
won because of five turnovers by the Cincinnati Bengals. Carson
Wentz filled in for JJ McCarthy, and before everybody starts
making the Minnesota coach the quarterback whisper, let's see another
game from Carson Wentz. There's a reason. And Carson Wentz
is playing for his sixth NFL team in six years. Okay,
I don't buy that he'll have that same type of
game this week. He's not going to be gifted goodfield
position all over the place. Aaron Rodgers is not Jake Browning.
He will not be rattled. Plus the fact, let's not
forget how many times Aaron Rodgers has faced this Minnesota
defense from his days with Green Bay. You've seen the
market take Pittsburgh from a small favorite to now a
two and a half point underdog. Everybody wants Minnesota, and
I know VR mentioned it in his Steam report, but
I think it's an overreaction to one week. I'll take
the Steelers here, and as I said in an earlier game,
let's not forget that injured player theory. The way we
work that system as we take the injured team in
week one, because everybody rises the occasion, steps up to
compensate for the loss of your quarterback. But if they
get the win in week one, it's a two part system.
We go against that team the next week because they
don't have that same intensity. I'll go ahead, take Pittsburgh.
Let's call it twenty seven to twenty. Pittsburgh gets the win.
And one other thing of playing in Dublin and traveling,
there's not a team in the NFL that travels better
with their fans than the Pittsburgh Steelers. How many times
you see them in road games, no matter what city
they're in. You see those terrible tiles. A lot of
people made this trip to Dublin. They'll be there in
full force.
Speaker 1: Take the Steelers, all right, Steelers look like a nice
teaser option. Mark. I'll leave it at that. I may
be here even on the East Coast, not up early
enough for that game. I don't know why we keep
doing things internationally, but we are so God bless all
of you that are willing to get up at six
am Pacific to watch the Steelers play. All right, I
will get into my best bet here. This is just
as gross as watching the Steelers flight. Actually, it's probably
even worse. And I'm wearing a purple jacket, So sorry
Marco if it looks like I'm cheering for Minnesota in
that one. All right, the Raiders, Yeah, I know no
one wants to take the Raiders DraftKings is holding a
plus one and a half minus one twenty while the
rest of the market on odds logic screen is at
a pick um. I think that's very very interesting. They're
begging for Raiders' money and I don't blame them. How
good did the Cowboys make Caleb Williams look last week? Yeah,
that's exactly how it panned out thirty one fourteen when
it was fourteen fourteen and the Dallas Cowboys defense just
absolutely let the wheels fall off and then no CD lamb.
But Dak Prescott still completed thirty one to forty attempts
and Javonte Williams still got seven point six yards per
carry on the ground. Gino Smith looked awful on that
Monday night football game against the Chargers and did not
look great last week? Or did he last week? Versus
the Commanders. The Raiders offense five point seven yards per
play Gino Smith nineteen of twenty nine, almost three hundred yards,
three touchdowns and yay, finally no interceptions. Raiders defense has
some holes, but the Bears are still four and fourteen
in September. Do not overreact to one good game against
that Dallas defense. Raiders win this game. Look, take the
one and a half minus one twenty. Take the pick them.
Maybe even wait, maybe the Raiders will move to one
and a half plus one and a half here at
home across the board and you can put him in
a teaser. I don't think that's gonna be the case, though.
I think Raiders right now are the play as a
pick them to bring back in the guys for this
recap of NFL Week four. Appreciate you guys hanging out
with us here every single week here un bet on again,
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