WEBVTT 1 00:00:01.399 --> 00:00:03.720 I'll try to make this as interesting as possible. If 2 00:00:03.759 --> 00:00:09.359 you like space, you'll like this talk. So my background 3 00:00:09.880 --> 00:00:12.279 in brief, I'll talk a little bit about ZIP two 4 00:00:12.400 --> 00:00:18.039 and PayPal, and then mostly about space and what we're 5 00:00:18.079 --> 00:00:21.960 doing in space. So I originally came out California to 6 00:00:22.320 --> 00:00:25.760 do energy physics at Stanford actually and ended up putting 7 00:00:25.879 --> 00:00:27.960 this is in ninety five, and ended up putting that. 8 00:00:27.960 --> 00:00:34.359 On a hold to start ZIP two and zip too. 9 00:00:35.399 --> 00:00:36.280 I'll tell you a little bit. 10 00:00:36.159 --> 00:00:39.799 About the thought process of exactly what happened there in 11 00:00:39.920 --> 00:00:42.159 ninety five, that it wasn't at all clear that the 12 00:00:42.159 --> 00:00:45.159 Internet was going to be a big commercial thing. In fact, 13 00:00:45.399 --> 00:00:48.679 most of the venture capitalists that I talked to hadn't 14 00:00:48.719 --> 00:00:52.640 even heard of the internet, which sounds bizarre. On sand 15 00:00:52.679 --> 00:00:58.479 Hill wrote, So, but I wanted to do something in there. 16 00:00:58.600 --> 00:01:00.920 I thought it would be a pretty huge thing, and 17 00:01:02.000 --> 00:01:03.240 I thought it was one of those things that only 18 00:01:03.759 --> 00:01:06.280 came along once in a very long while. 19 00:01:06.640 --> 00:01:08.280 So I got a. 20 00:01:08.359 --> 00:01:12.480 Deferment at Stamford, and I thought I'd give it a 21 00:01:12.519 --> 00:01:13.719 couple of quarters. 22 00:01:15.200 --> 00:01:16.959 And if it didn't work out, which I. 23 00:01:16.959 --> 00:01:19.599 Thought it probably wouldn't, then i'd come back at school 24 00:01:20.920 --> 00:01:23.000 and actually When I talked to my professor and I 25 00:01:23.120 --> 00:01:25.079 told him this, he said, well, I don't think you'll 26 00:01:25.120 --> 00:01:26.040 be coming back, and that was. 27 00:01:26.000 --> 00:01:27.560 The last conversation I had with him. 28 00:01:30.159 --> 00:01:32.200 But there weren't a lot of waste Again, the only 29 00:01:32.239 --> 00:01:34.040 way to get involved the Internet in ninety five that 30 00:01:34.079 --> 00:01:36.480 I could think of was to start a company, because they. 31 00:01:36.439 --> 00:01:37.719 Want a lot of companies to go and work for 32 00:01:38.159 --> 00:01:41.079 Apart from Netscape, maybe one or two others. 33 00:01:41.879 --> 00:01:44.280 So, and they didn't have any money, so I thought, well, 34 00:01:44.560 --> 00:01:46.280 we've got to make something that's going to. 35 00:01:46.359 --> 00:01:52.239 Return It's going to return money very very quickly. 36 00:01:52.480 --> 00:01:56.799 So we thought, well that the media industry would need 37 00:01:57.239 --> 00:02:02.079 help converting its content from a print media to electronic 38 00:02:02.400 --> 00:02:05.439 and they clearly had money, so if we could find 39 00:02:05.480 --> 00:02:08.080 a way to help them move their media to the Internet, 40 00:02:08.360 --> 00:02:11.479 that would be an obvious way of generating revenue. There 41 00:02:11.560 --> 00:02:13.639 was no advertising revenue on the Internet at the time, 42 00:02:14.319 --> 00:02:17.719 so and that that was really the basis of ZEP two, 43 00:02:17.919 --> 00:02:20.439 And we ended up building quite a bit of software 44 00:02:20.479 --> 00:02:23.919 for the media industry, primarily the print media industry. So 45 00:02:23.960 --> 00:02:29.159 we had as investors and customers Hearst Corporation, night Ridder, 46 00:02:31.159 --> 00:02:35.719 most of the major US print publishers. We built that up, 47 00:02:35.759 --> 00:02:38.960 and then we had the opportunity to sell to Compact 48 00:02:39.439 --> 00:02:41.879 in early ninety nine, and basically. 49 00:02:41.639 --> 00:02:42.280 Took that offer. 50 00:02:42.319 --> 00:02:44.479 It was for a little over a three hundred million 51 00:02:44.520 --> 00:02:48.080 dollars in cash, and that's that's a currency I highly recommend. 52 00:02:51.840 --> 00:02:55.319 So we had that and and. 53 00:02:56.800 --> 00:02:59.840 But I wanted to do something something more after ZIP too, 54 00:03:00.520 --> 00:03:04.520 so post the sale, in fact, immediately post the sale, 55 00:03:04.639 --> 00:03:08.639 I didn't really take any time off. I was just trying 56 00:03:08.639 --> 00:03:11.439 to think of where where the opportunities in this in 57 00:03:11.439 --> 00:03:14.479 the early ninety nine, where the opportunities remained in the Internet, 58 00:03:14.520 --> 00:03:16.000 And it seemed to me that there hadn't been a lot. 59 00:03:15.919 --> 00:03:21.039 Of innovation in the financial services sector. So and when 60 00:03:21.080 --> 00:03:23.199 you think about it, money is low bound with You 61 00:03:23.240 --> 00:03:26.199 don't need some sort of big infrastructure improvement. 62 00:03:25.800 --> 00:03:28.840 To do to do things with it. It's really just 63 00:03:28.879 --> 00:03:32.120 an entry in the database. The paper form of money 64 00:03:32.240 --> 00:03:34.560 is really only a small percentage of all the money 65 00:03:35.000 --> 00:03:37.680 that that's out there. So it should lend itself to 66 00:03:37.759 --> 00:03:39.439 innovation on the Internet. 67 00:03:40.800 --> 00:03:42.919 And so we thought of a couple of different things 68 00:03:42.960 --> 00:03:43.319 we could do. 69 00:03:43.439 --> 00:03:47.039 One of the things was to combine all of somebody's 70 00:03:47.080 --> 00:03:50.960 financial services needs into one website, so you could have banking, brokerage, 71 00:03:50.960 --> 00:03:53.759 insurance and all sorts of things in one place. 72 00:03:55.039 --> 00:03:57.439 And that was actually quite a difficult problem to solve, 73 00:03:58.520 --> 00:04:02.479 but we sold most the issues associated with that. And 74 00:04:02.520 --> 00:04:04.280 then we had a little feature which. 75 00:04:04.080 --> 00:04:07.360 Took us about a day. That was the ability to 76 00:04:07.400 --> 00:04:11.639 email money from one customer to another. So you could 77 00:04:11.639 --> 00:04:14.080 type in an email address or actually any unique identifier 78 00:04:14.879 --> 00:04:19.480 and transfer funds or conceivably stocks or mutual funds or 79 00:04:19.480 --> 00:04:23.839 whatever from one account holder to another. And if you 80 00:04:23.920 --> 00:04:26.959 try to transfer money to somebody who didn't have an 81 00:04:27.000 --> 00:04:29.319 account on the system, it would then forward an email 82 00:04:29.519 --> 00:04:31.160 to them saying, hey, why don't you sign up and 83 00:04:31.199 --> 00:04:36.839 open an account. And whenever we demonstrate these two sets 84 00:04:36.839 --> 00:04:39.560 of features, we'd say, well, this is a feature that 85 00:04:39.560 --> 00:04:41.439 took us a lot of effort to do, and look 86 00:04:41.480 --> 00:04:44.319 how you can see your bank statement and your mutual funds. 87 00:04:44.040 --> 00:04:46.600 And insurance and all that. It's all on one page, 88 00:04:46.600 --> 00:04:47.600 and look how convenient that is. 89 00:04:47.600 --> 00:04:50.800 And people got home and then we'd say, and by 90 00:04:50.800 --> 00:04:53.399 the way, we have this feature where you can enter 91 00:04:53.439 --> 00:04:55.959 some of these email address and transfers funds and they 92 00:04:55.959 --> 00:05:02.519 go wow. So we were like Okay, So we focused 93 00:05:02.720 --> 00:05:06.399 the company's business on on email payments and in the 94 00:05:06.439 --> 00:05:08.920 early game going, the company is called x dot com 95 00:05:09.519 --> 00:05:11.720 and then there was a there was another company called Confinity, 96 00:05:12.199 --> 00:05:14.439 which had actually also started out from it from a 97 00:05:14.480 --> 00:05:15.240 different area. 98 00:05:15.879 --> 00:05:19.800 UH. They started out with the PalmPilot cryptography, and then 99 00:05:19.800 --> 00:05:22.600 they had as a demo application the ability to beam 100 00:05:23.160 --> 00:05:24.639 token payments from one. 101 00:05:24.560 --> 00:05:28.000 Pomp pilot to another by the infrared coort uh. And 102 00:05:28.079 --> 00:05:30.839 then they had a website which is called PayPal, where 103 00:05:30.839 --> 00:05:31.360 you would. 104 00:05:31.160 --> 00:05:35.800 Reconcile the beamed payments and and what they found was 105 00:05:35.839 --> 00:05:37.199 that the website. 106 00:05:36.839 --> 00:05:39.279 Portion was actually Palm more interesting to people the then 107 00:05:39.360 --> 00:05:40.759 pomp pilot cryptography was. 108 00:05:40.959 --> 00:05:44.160 So they started leading their business in that direction. Uh. 109 00:05:44.240 --> 00:05:48.959 And then in basically early two thousand, uh X dot 110 00:05:49.000 --> 00:05:53.120 com acquired Confinity UH. And then about a year later we. 111 00:05:53.639 --> 00:05:56.800 Uh uh we ended up changing the company's name to PayPal. 112 00:05:59.120 --> 00:06:02.720 And that's that kind of how the approximate evolution of 113 00:06:03.079 --> 00:06:06.639 the company and the PayPal is really a case of 114 00:06:07.560 --> 00:06:12.879 where the whole viral marketing. It's really a perfect case 115 00:06:12.959 --> 00:06:19.879 example of viral marketing like hortmail was where one one 116 00:06:19.959 --> 00:06:24.319 customer would essentially act as a salesperson for you, for 117 00:06:24.439 --> 00:06:26.639 all of you, for bringing in other customers, so they 118 00:06:26.680 --> 00:06:29.639 would send money to a friend and essentially recruit that 119 00:06:29.759 --> 00:06:33.759 brend into the network. And so you had this exponential growth. 120 00:06:34.040 --> 00:06:37.240 The more customers you had, the faster it grew. So 121 00:06:38.120 --> 00:06:40.439 it was like bacteria in a petri dish, you know, 122 00:06:40.480 --> 00:06:43.959 it just goes like does this s curve? And in 123 00:06:44.040 --> 00:06:48.160 fact I ran paypaler for about the first two years 124 00:06:48.319 --> 00:06:53.439 of its existence, and we launched after year one, and 125 00:06:53.560 --> 00:06:55.040 by the end of year two we had a million 126 00:06:55.079 --> 00:06:58.639 of customers. So it gives you an example, you know, 127 00:06:58.680 --> 00:07:00.879 to get your sense for how fast things things grow 128 00:07:00.959 --> 00:07:01.560 in that scenario. 129 00:07:02.319 --> 00:07:03.519 And we didn't have a sales force. 130 00:07:04.160 --> 00:07:06.240 We actually didn't have a VP of sales, we didn't 131 00:07:06.240 --> 00:07:08.839 have a VP of marketing, and we didn't spend any 132 00:07:08.879 --> 00:07:16.399 money on advertising. In about February of last year, for 133 00:07:16.519 --> 00:07:18.759 those some of your probably following it, In February of 134 00:07:18.800 --> 00:07:22.639 last year, PayPal went public and we were I think 135 00:07:22.680 --> 00:07:25.600 we were the only internet company to go public in 136 00:07:25.680 --> 00:07:30.000 the first part of last year. It went off reasonably well, 137 00:07:31.279 --> 00:07:36.199 although I think we had more sec rewrites than any 138 00:07:36.279 --> 00:07:38.680 company I can imagine, Like we said a record on 139 00:07:38.839 --> 00:07:41.000 sec rewrites. This was right around the en run time 140 00:07:41.079 --> 00:07:43.199 and when there was all sorts of corporate scandal, so 141 00:07:43.680 --> 00:07:48.480 they put us through the ring. And then shortly thereafter, 142 00:07:48.639 --> 00:07:53.399 in about June July, we struck a deal with eBay 143 00:07:53.519 --> 00:08:00.120 to sell a company to eBay and for about four 144 00:08:00.160 --> 00:08:03.519 and a half billion dollars. But that was when eBay's 145 00:08:03.519 --> 00:08:07.240 stock price was about fifty five dollars and they hadn't split, 146 00:08:08.680 --> 00:08:11.240 so I guess in today's dollars were about three billion dollars, 147 00:08:13.399 --> 00:08:14.439 so it worked out pretty well. 148 00:08:17.560 --> 00:08:18.720 It happened coincidentally that. 149 00:08:20.560 --> 00:08:22.680 In the first part of last year I've been doing 150 00:08:22.800 --> 00:08:27.120 just some background research on space, and let me talk 151 00:08:27.120 --> 00:08:32.159 a bit about that. So essentially, I was trying to 152 00:08:32.159 --> 00:08:35.159 figure out why we had not made more progress since 153 00:08:35.200 --> 00:08:39.519 Apollo in nineteen In the sixties, we went from basically nothing, 154 00:08:39.720 --> 00:08:41.600 not being able to put anyone into space, to putting 155 00:08:41.639 --> 00:08:47.279 people on the Moon and developing all the technology from scratch. 156 00:08:47.000 --> 00:08:47.679 To do that. 157 00:08:48.360 --> 00:08:52.080 And yet in the seventies and eighties and the nineties 158 00:08:52.120 --> 00:08:54.759 we've kind of gone sideways, and we're currently in the 159 00:08:54.799 --> 00:08:57.399 situation where we kindt even put a person into low 160 00:08:57.440 --> 00:09:01.000 Earth orbit, and that doesn't really cherell with all of 161 00:09:01.080 --> 00:09:05.879 the other technology sectors out there. The computer that you 162 00:09:05.919 --> 00:09:08.240 could have bought in the early seventies, you know, would 163 00:09:08.279 --> 00:09:10.240 have filled this room and had less computing power than 164 00:09:10.279 --> 00:09:10.840 your cell phone. 165 00:09:13.159 --> 00:09:16.360 And so just about every sector of technologies improved. Why 166 00:09:16.399 --> 00:09:19.200 has this not improved? So I started looking into that. 167 00:09:23.039 --> 00:09:25.120 Initially, I thought, well, perhaps it's a question of funding, 168 00:09:25.200 --> 00:09:29.639 and that funding can be garnered by really marshaling public support. 169 00:09:30.519 --> 00:09:32.639 So I thought, well, one way to get the public 170 00:09:32.879 --> 00:09:35.960 excited about space would be to do maybe a privately 171 00:09:36.000 --> 00:09:41.879 funded robotic mission to Mars. And so we figured out 172 00:09:41.879 --> 00:09:44.440 a mission that would cost about fifteen to twenty million dollars, 173 00:09:44.480 --> 00:09:48.080 which isn't a lot of money, but it's about a tenth. 174 00:09:47.960 --> 00:09:52.360 Of what a low cost nasamission would be. And the 175 00:09:52.440 --> 00:09:52.840 idea was. 176 00:09:53.200 --> 00:09:56.679 Called Mars Oasis, where we would put a small robotic 177 00:09:56.720 --> 00:09:59.960 glander on the surface of Mars with seeds and dehydrated nutrients. 178 00:10:00.600 --> 00:10:03.600 They would hydrate upon landing, and you'd have plants growing 179 00:10:03.600 --> 00:10:07.840 into Martian radiation and gravity conditions, and you'd also be 180 00:10:07.960 --> 00:10:08.879 maintaining essentially a. 181 00:10:08.840 --> 00:10:10.279 Life support system on the surface of Mars. 182 00:10:10.720 --> 00:10:12.320 And this would be interesting to the public because they 183 00:10:12.360 --> 00:10:16.639 tend to respond to precedents and superlatives, and this would 184 00:10:16.639 --> 00:10:18.840 be the furthest that life's ever traveled in the first 185 00:10:18.919 --> 00:10:19.559 life on Mars. 186 00:10:19.799 --> 00:10:20.840 So pretty significant. 187 00:10:22.399 --> 00:10:25.039 And then when I started looking at launch vehicles that 188 00:10:25.159 --> 00:10:28.039 the lowest cost vehicle in the US is Boeing stalt 189 00:10:28.080 --> 00:10:31.799 To two, which costs about fifty million dollars, and that's 190 00:10:31.840 --> 00:10:34.600 a bit that's a bit steep what we were trying 191 00:10:34.639 --> 00:10:38.039 to do. So I made three visits to Moscow to 192 00:10:38.080 --> 00:10:45.080 Russia to look at buying a Russian launch and it's 193 00:10:45.120 --> 00:10:50.159 actually pretty interesting going to moscowt to negotiate for a 194 00:10:50.240 --> 00:10:56.120 refurbished ICBM. If you know, on the range of interesting experiences, 195 00:10:56.200 --> 00:11:01.960 that's pretty pretty far out there. But we actually did 196 00:11:02.039 --> 00:11:05.159 get to a deal, but there were so many complications 197 00:11:05.200 --> 00:11:09.679 associated with the deal that it didn't I wasn't comfortable 198 00:11:09.720 --> 00:11:13.240 with the risks associated with it. So when I got 199 00:11:13.279 --> 00:11:15.559 back from the third trip, I thought, well, you know, 200 00:11:16.000 --> 00:11:18.039 why is it the Russians can build these low cost 201 00:11:18.679 --> 00:11:24.440 launch vehicles, because it's not like we drive Russian cars, 202 00:11:24.559 --> 00:11:28.799 fly Russian planes, or have Russian kitchen appliances, and you know, 203 00:11:28.840 --> 00:11:30.759 when's the last night brought something Russian that wasn't vodka. 204 00:11:31.399 --> 00:11:34.960 So I think the US is a pretty competitive place 205 00:11:35.600 --> 00:11:38.679 and we should be able to build a cost efficient 206 00:11:38.720 --> 00:11:39.240 launch vehicle. 207 00:11:40.440 --> 00:11:43.559 So I put together a feasibility study which consisted of 208 00:11:44.399 --> 00:11:46.480 engineers that have been involved with all the major launch 209 00:11:46.519 --> 00:11:50.240 vehicle developments over the last three decades, and we iterated 210 00:11:50.320 --> 00:11:52.240 over a number of saturdays in the beginning. 211 00:11:52.000 --> 00:11:54.720 Of last year to figure out, well, what would be 212 00:11:55.320 --> 00:11:57.360 what would be the smartest way to approach this problem 213 00:11:57.519 --> 00:12:00.960 of not just launch cost but also launch reliable. And 214 00:12:01.240 --> 00:12:04.159 we came up with a default design and that actually, 215 00:12:04.399 --> 00:12:09.720 uh sort of fortunate timing. That feasibility study finished up 216 00:12:09.799 --> 00:12:12.200 right around the time that we agreed to sell paypalt 217 00:12:12.240 --> 00:12:16.120 the eBay, So coincident with that sale, I moved down 218 00:12:16.200 --> 00:12:20.320 to la where there's actually the biggest concentration of aerospace 219 00:12:20.320 --> 00:12:23.559 industry in the world. It's actually the biggest industry in 220 00:12:23.799 --> 00:12:26.279 southern California, much bigger than entertainment or anything else. 221 00:12:27.000 --> 00:12:30.080 I was living in pala Alta for about nine years 222 00:12:30.120 --> 00:12:30.480 before that. 223 00:12:33.600 --> 00:12:36.759 Anyway, So just to talk it a little broadly about 224 00:12:36.919 --> 00:12:41.519 space and where things are today, Obviously US government manned 225 00:12:41.559 --> 00:12:45.159 exploration is not in a great place. We've got the 226 00:12:45.519 --> 00:12:48.080 three remaining shuttles are grounded, it looks like first flight 227 00:12:48.279 --> 00:12:52.799 might only be a year from now. If that, and 228 00:12:53.159 --> 00:12:56.960 we've got a vehicle that is incredibly expensive and really 229 00:12:57.240 --> 00:13:01.440 quite dangerous. It's you know, for reasons to mention there, 230 00:13:01.639 --> 00:13:03.879 it's got a side mounted crew compartments, so if there's 231 00:13:04.080 --> 00:13:06.440 an explosion, that's basically instant death. 232 00:13:07.080 --> 00:13:07.200 Uh. 233 00:13:08.360 --> 00:13:11.960 The you've got solid rocket boosters which once you nite them, 234 00:13:12.000 --> 00:13:14.360 you can turn them off. And there's something fundamentally dangerous 235 00:13:14.360 --> 00:13:17.639 about pre mixing your fuel and oxidizer, I think, Uh. 236 00:13:17.799 --> 00:13:20.080 And then it's you've got wings. 237 00:13:19.360 --> 00:13:21.600 And control surfaces when you when you re enter, you've 238 00:13:21.600 --> 00:13:24.360 got to maintain a precise angle of attack. Even a 239 00:13:24.440 --> 00:13:27.799 momentary variance in that can break the whole vehicle apart. 240 00:13:29.120 --> 00:13:30.919 So and then and then of course it's got no 241 00:13:31.080 --> 00:13:33.480 escape system, so if anything does go wrong, your toast 242 00:13:34.480 --> 00:13:37.120 and and that you've got a cost that is really 243 00:13:37.240 --> 00:13:40.519 pretty hard to fathom. The shuttle program, when you add 244 00:13:40.639 --> 00:13:43.080 up all the pieces, is about four billion a year. 245 00:13:43.759 --> 00:13:46.399 And so you can divide uh four billion by the 246 00:13:46.480 --> 00:13:48.240 number of flights and that I'll tell you what the 247 00:13:48.320 --> 00:13:53.200 cost is. And and if there's say four flights a year, 248 00:13:53.240 --> 00:13:55.519 which they haven't been for a while. Then you're talking 249 00:13:55.519 --> 00:14:00.799 about a billion dollars a flight. The plans for the 250 00:14:00.919 --> 00:14:03.879 mutate future are, obviously we've got to continue building the 251 00:14:04.320 --> 00:14:07.320 space station, so we're going to keep flying the Shuttle, 252 00:14:07.399 --> 00:14:10.320 but I think it's probably going to be the minimum 253 00:14:10.360 --> 00:14:15.600 number of Shuttle flights that we need to launch. The 254 00:14:15.879 --> 00:14:19.559 long term plans are build something called overital space plane 255 00:14:19.600 --> 00:14:22.960 out safe plane in quotes, because one of the options 256 00:14:23.080 --> 00:14:25.360 is a capsule, so it should be called, you know, 257 00:14:25.399 --> 00:14:30.120 maybe overtal space thing. But the basic idea is to 258 00:14:30.200 --> 00:14:34.080 have something that's hopefully a little cheaper and a lot 259 00:14:34.240 --> 00:14:38.200 safer than the Space Shuttle. So in particular, it's going 260 00:14:38.240 --> 00:14:40.679 to have an escape system so if something does go wrong, 261 00:14:40.759 --> 00:14:46.399 you can abort to safety. The downside is that it's 262 00:14:46.440 --> 00:14:49.279 still while it might be a little cheaper, it's still 263 00:14:49.320 --> 00:14:52.440 going to be pretty darn expensive. Estimated cost per flight 264 00:14:52.480 --> 00:14:54.360 of overital space plane is someone in the region of 265 00:14:54.360 --> 00:14:57.399 three hundred to four hundred million dollars a flight, and 266 00:14:57.559 --> 00:15:00.960 of that amount, two hundred just two hundred million dollars 267 00:15:01.000 --> 00:15:05.919 alone goes to Boeing for the Delta four heavy expandable booster, 268 00:15:07.480 --> 00:15:12.360 and it's a fifteen billion dollar development effort and expected 269 00:15:12.399 --> 00:15:15.279 to be completed in nine or ten years now. 270 00:15:15.360 --> 00:15:19.120 Typically, typically things. 271 00:15:18.919 --> 00:15:25.200 Have not been under budget and under time, so it's 272 00:15:25.279 --> 00:15:30.279 unlikely I think, given historical precedent that it will stay 273 00:15:30.320 --> 00:15:33.480 within fifteen billion dollars and the twenty twelve twelve timeline, 274 00:15:36.960 --> 00:15:38.720 and a bit about what's going on on elsewhere in 275 00:15:38.759 --> 00:15:42.200 the world in Russia, that this is really the Sawyers 276 00:15:42.279 --> 00:15:46.279 is our only access to space station. It's considerably cheaper, 277 00:15:46.360 --> 00:15:49.480 considerably safer. The Sawyers has a very good track record. 278 00:15:50.799 --> 00:15:53.960 Its crew is top mounted, it has an escape system, 279 00:15:54.000 --> 00:15:57.200 there are no wings or control services to go wrong. Overall, 280 00:15:57.360 --> 00:16:01.360 it's a pretty good system. And the estimated carts are 281 00:16:01.360 --> 00:16:04.039 about sixty million dollars a flight, which is an auto 282 00:16:04.399 --> 00:16:08.480 more than Autobank two less than the Space Shuttle. The 283 00:16:08.600 --> 00:16:10.440 thing that constrains them, obviously, is the weakness of the 284 00:16:10.480 --> 00:16:13.000 Russian economy. It's very hard for them to embark on 285 00:16:13.080 --> 00:16:18.159 ambitious programs with an economy the size of Belgium. So 286 00:16:19.720 --> 00:16:22.960 China is probably the most interesting thing that's going on 287 00:16:23.159 --> 00:16:23.960 in space. 288 00:16:25.360 --> 00:16:28.320 This month. China is expected to be only the third 289 00:16:28.840 --> 00:16:31.960 it's expected to launch their first person into space, they 290 00:16:31.960 --> 00:16:34.240 will make them only the third country ever to put 291 00:16:34.279 --> 00:16:38.279 someone in orbit, and that they've put a lot of 292 00:16:38.480 --> 00:16:39.799 money and effort into this program. 293 00:16:40.519 --> 00:16:43.519 If anything serves as a spur for human space exploration, 294 00:16:43.759 --> 00:16:49.679 it is likely to be China's ambitions in space, and 295 00:16:50.600 --> 00:16:52.840 hopefully a sentence in America that we want to at 296 00:16:52.960 --> 00:16:58.799 least keep up with China. And they have grand ambitions 297 00:16:58.919 --> 00:17:01.759 beyond just low with orbit. They are planning on setting 298 00:17:01.840 --> 00:17:04.240 up a space station, putting a base on Mars, and 299 00:17:04.319 --> 00:17:10.119 eventually sending humans to Mars. So what's happening in the 300 00:17:10.319 --> 00:17:13.400 US that I think might ultimately surpass all of that 301 00:17:13.519 --> 00:17:19.960 stuff is entrepreneurial space activities, where things are led by 302 00:17:20.039 --> 00:17:23.640 the spurt of free enterprise. And I think there's perhaps 303 00:17:23.720 --> 00:17:29.839 an analogy here where just as DARPA served as the 304 00:17:30.079 --> 00:17:34.440 initial impatus for the Internet and underwrote a lot of 305 00:17:34.480 --> 00:17:38.359 the costs of developing the Internet in the beginning, if 306 00:17:38.359 --> 00:17:41.599 may be the case that NASA has insentially done the 307 00:17:41.640 --> 00:17:44.240 same thing by spending the money develops some of the 308 00:17:44.240 --> 00:17:48.440 fundamental technologies in the beginning, and then once we can 309 00:17:48.480 --> 00:17:51.839 bring sort of the commercial pre enterprise sector into it, 310 00:17:51.920 --> 00:17:54.200 then we can see the dramatic acceleration that we did 311 00:17:54.480 --> 00:17:55.039 that we saw. 312 00:17:55.119 --> 00:18:00.279 In the Internet. So there are several serious more vehicle 313 00:18:00.279 --> 00:18:00.960 efforts underway. 314 00:18:01.559 --> 00:18:06.680 Talk about each one's Bertrictann of scale composites. Bert Riccann 315 00:18:06.799 --> 00:18:10.240 is one of the world's foremost aircraft designers, and he's 316 00:18:10.279 --> 00:18:13.920 developed a suborbttle vehicle that they're actually flying out of Mahabi. 317 00:18:14.799 --> 00:18:18.119 This is an X Prize class vehicle. There's John Cormack, 318 00:18:18.279 --> 00:18:21.720 who wrote Quake and Doom. It's probably one of the 319 00:18:21.799 --> 00:18:23.839 best software engineers in the world, one of the best 320 00:18:24.000 --> 00:18:28.319 engineers that I know period, and he's developing a vertical 321 00:18:28.359 --> 00:18:31.759 take of the landing vehicle. Jeff Bezos, who I understand 322 00:18:31.839 --> 00:18:37.839 was here last week, is a huge space advocate and 323 00:18:38.079 --> 00:18:40.000 to my understanding that he intends to spend something on 324 00:18:40.039 --> 00:18:42.160 the order of a billion dollars over the next twenty 325 00:18:42.279 --> 00:18:47.720 years on space exploration, and then space then my company SpaceX, 326 00:18:48.960 --> 00:18:49.680 and I think. 327 00:18:49.599 --> 00:18:53.720 Within the next several years these entrepreneurial efforts will actually 328 00:18:53.759 --> 00:18:56.240 be what derives space exploration. 329 00:18:58.519 --> 00:19:00.680 So a little bit about each one. That's a picture 330 00:19:00.799 --> 00:19:05.640 of the potratan effort. It's called White Knight is the 331 00:19:05.720 --> 00:19:08.359 carrier plane. And then spaceship one is the thing that's 332 00:19:08.400 --> 00:19:14.000 held in the belly there. And this project is supposedly 333 00:19:14.039 --> 00:19:16.680 funded by Paul Allen, so there's quite a lot of 334 00:19:16.720 --> 00:19:19.240 capital also, it should make that point, quite a lot 335 00:19:19.240 --> 00:19:20.119 of capital. 336 00:19:19.799 --> 00:19:23.559 That's sort of entering this entrepreneurial space sector as well. 337 00:19:25.279 --> 00:19:27.640 The only drawback I think of this architecture is that 338 00:19:27.680 --> 00:19:29.519 it's not really scalable for. 339 00:19:31.240 --> 00:19:33.599 For something that would get to orbit. This is pretty 340 00:19:33.640 --> 00:19:35.920 good for sub orbital, but I think the architecture would 341 00:19:35.920 --> 00:19:40.279 need to change for an orbital vehicle. And there's a 342 00:19:40.400 --> 00:19:44.839 John Comas effort. He's a little irreverent. This is from 343 00:19:44.880 --> 00:19:45.480 his website. 344 00:19:48.559 --> 00:19:50.960 His his vehicle is a vertical takeoff and landing vehicle. 345 00:19:51.720 --> 00:19:54.720 He's made. He's made really incredible progress for somebody who 346 00:19:55.440 --> 00:19:56.960 has no background in. 347 00:19:58.680 --> 00:20:01.519 Airspace engineering and is also kind of doing it all 348 00:20:01.599 --> 00:20:07.359 himself with him in like three bodies, so and I 349 00:20:07.400 --> 00:20:10.039 think that will make something that works. Actually, if you 350 00:20:10.240 --> 00:20:13.799 can check out their website Agell Aerospace, it's pretty interesting stuff. 351 00:20:15.240 --> 00:20:17.960 But in order to get to orbit, this would require 352 00:20:18.200 --> 00:20:21.599 a substantial improvement in the mass efficiency, in the engine efficiency. 353 00:20:21.240 --> 00:20:27.480 And probably be a two stage vehicle. Jeff Bezos, who 354 00:20:27.640 --> 00:20:31.880 I'm sure almost everyone here is aware of. He is 355 00:20:33.680 --> 00:20:35.079 a pretty huge fan of space. 356 00:20:35.160 --> 00:20:38.720 In fact, his high school baledictorian speech was about the 357 00:20:38.759 --> 00:20:43.440 necessity of humanity expanding to other planets, so it's pretty 358 00:20:43.440 --> 00:20:44.079 important to him. 359 00:20:44.720 --> 00:20:50.160 From what I understand, this is our effort. 360 00:20:53.119 --> 00:20:56.880 We're spanning quite a bit more than the three prior 361 00:20:57.000 --> 00:21:00.480 entities that I mentioned, in some cases, probably an or 362 00:21:00.799 --> 00:21:03.319 of magnitude more, because what we're doing is really an 363 00:21:03.400 --> 00:21:05.759 order of magnitude more difficult. We're building an orbital launch 364 00:21:05.839 --> 00:21:09.240 vehicle to two stage, very high efficiency engines, very high 365 00:21:09.319 --> 00:21:13.759 mass efficiency launch vehicle, and it's targeted to the satellite 366 00:21:13.799 --> 00:21:17.000 delivery market. So our approach is really to make this 367 00:21:17.359 --> 00:21:20.880 a solid, sound business. And so I predicated the. 368 00:21:22.480 --> 00:21:25.880 Strategic plan on a known market, something that we know 369 00:21:25.960 --> 00:21:26.559 for a fact. 370 00:21:26.440 --> 00:21:29.359 Exists, which is the need to put small to medium 371 00:21:29.400 --> 00:21:34.039 sized satellites into orbit. And so that's what we're going 372 00:21:34.079 --> 00:21:37.400 after initially, and then with that as a as kind 373 00:21:37.400 --> 00:21:41.680 of a revenue base, we will move into the human 374 00:21:41.720 --> 00:21:44.279 transportation market. It's the long term management. Company are definitely 375 00:21:44.279 --> 00:21:47.400 in human transportation, but I think the smart strategy is 376 00:21:47.440 --> 00:21:52.640 to first go for cargo delivery. Essentially satellite livery and 377 00:21:52.720 --> 00:21:57.519 our eventual a great path is to build the successor 378 00:21:57.640 --> 00:22:00.759 to Saturn five, build a super heavy lift vehicle that 379 00:22:01.000 --> 00:22:05.480 could you know, be used for setting up a Moon 380 00:22:05.519 --> 00:22:06.720 base or doing a Mars mission. 381 00:22:06.759 --> 00:22:08.079 That would be the Holy Grail objective. 382 00:22:09.880 --> 00:22:13.319 On the upper right there you can see a testifying 383 00:22:13.359 --> 00:22:16.200 of our engine and on the lower right you can 384 00:22:16.240 --> 00:22:24.039 see the our first stage tank. This is an engine 385 00:22:24.079 --> 00:22:28.839 test of our main engine, which is called Merlin YEA 386 00:22:40.160 --> 00:22:44.319 and that that generates about roughly seventy five pounds of thrust. 387 00:22:48.519 --> 00:22:54.799 At sea level. This is our upper stage engine. It's 388 00:22:54.799 --> 00:22:55.119 about it. 389 00:22:55.240 --> 00:22:57.599 It's about seventy five hundred pounds of thrust in vacuum. 390 00:23:03.839 --> 00:23:07.960 And this is an accelerated version of our launch sequence. 391 00:23:09.079 --> 00:23:12.480 Our first launch will be from the SpaceX Launch Complex 392 00:23:12.599 --> 00:23:16.759 at Vanderberg Air Force Base an approximately March of next year, 393 00:23:16.880 --> 00:23:22.400 basically early next year, and we will be applying a 394 00:23:22.519 --> 00:23:28.039 Navy satellite, maybe communications satellite. So it's notable because often 395 00:23:28.480 --> 00:23:32.079 launch bicle companies are not able to get somebody get. 396 00:23:32.000 --> 00:23:35.160 A paying customer on their first flight. That we've been 397 00:23:35.200 --> 00:23:39.160 able to do that. This is also the Falcon development 398 00:23:39.240 --> 00:23:42.240 at SpaceX is the fastest launch veicle development in history, 399 00:23:42.279 --> 00:23:43.039 including wartime. 400 00:23:53.359 --> 00:23:56.720 That's actually Vanderberg Airport Base, which is about two hours 401 00:23:56.759 --> 00:24:03.640