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Speaker 1: Here the In This League Fantasy Football Podcast featuring bug Man,
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Speaker 3: Welcome back, everybody. It's the In This League Fantasy Football Podcast.
I'm your host, Scott Bogman, and today I'm joined by
my brother Debro at debro f Underscore FFB on the
Twitter Machine, Derek Brown, one of my co workers over
at Fantasy Pros. We are going to talk about numbers
that we love and hate on today's show, Debro, My man,
how's the summer treating you? My friend?
Speaker 2: It's good, dude. I'm in the thick of it. I'm
currently still grinding out my top two hundred, so you
know all my two hundred write ups that I'll have
live on the site before you know, Big Draft weekend
of the summer and stuff. But you know, been getting
through all the other types of content that a're all
live at Fantasy Bros. And the draft kit and stuff.
That's the last big hurdle. But you know, it's an
interesting time of the summer, man. You know, we're right
at the precipice of training camps opening and things really
getting wild before preseason football and stuff. But it's a
good time. Dude, How are you doing.
Speaker 3: I'm doing pretty good. It is. We are like right
on the precipice of it. As you as you talk,
you know, we are going to the rankings kind of
get stagnant. I feel like in this last four to
six weeks there's a little news that pops up here
and there that we see after the draft, the draft
and the rookie camps and all that. But once camp's open,
we're gonna see who's in, who's not playing that we
thought maybe would be playing, who is healthier than we expected,
who is winning jobs that we didn't expect to win jobs.
All that kind of stuff is coming up and rankings
will start to move more.
Speaker 2: Then. So to your point, though, I will say this,
and I think it tails into this show perfectly. As
I've gotten deeper and I've been writing up certain players,
and you kind of take a look under the hood
of like the reality of what happened in twenty twenty six,
and you kind of peel back the curtain a little bit.
I will say that I have been adjusting my rankings
as I'm going through write ups, and there'll be certain
stats where I'm like, oh, once I get to a
player and I write them up and I do the
deep dive, I'm like, I feel a little bit different
than maybe I did a week ago before I got
to the write up in some of these stats, some
of these I mean, we're gonna lay out here perfectly
of like some guys I have moved up or moved
down based off of what I've found in research.
Speaker 3: Deeper dive, deeper appreciation always will change your opinion a
little bit less. It makes the players a little bit
less gray than they are, you know what I mean,
which is what we want. We want more black and white.
But I do think that we get into black and
white camps around this part. Like you've heard the talking
points a lot during the off season, uh So I
feel like camps have been built. There's more people talking
about these players than ever has been before.
Speaker 2: Right, Echo chamber, baby, echo chamber. And if you go
against the echo chamber, you're an idiot or a clown.
Speaker 3: You know, it doesn't really matter anything we put on
the on Twitter, Someone's gonna call us an idiot. Yeah,
of course someone's gonna agree with us, and someone's gonna
call U an idiot. That's just how the space works
at this point, which is.
Speaker 2: Social media in six baby in a nutshell, taking a.
Speaker 3: Hard time not to get used to that, but it is,
you know, it is just the way it works. You know.
Twitter can be assessedbol but it can also be very
nice at times. So, but we're going to talk about
some stats about some players we love and hate. So
debro Let's dive right in here. Who is first on
the players that you love? Who are you loving right now?
And give me some stats to back it up?
Speaker 2: My friend, So, James Cook, I absolutely adore this year
because I feel like there's so much innate value in
where he's being drafted and what it looks like. I
think James Cook has top three upside And this isn't
just like going off the heels of last year. And
so I'm going to lay out the case like I
was on a show previous this week with the whole
Fantasy Points crew and we were kind of laying out
of our cases of like differing varying guys outside of
the chalk that could be the RB one overall in
Fantasy points per game. I think James Cook is going
to be in that top three conversation with maybe an opportunity,
Like I mean, we're talking about like everything has to
hit right right, but the big thing for James Cook
and we look at like, you know, I could throw
out a bunch of different stats like we like, you
have to be a high volume back, you have to
be in a really good freaking offense. Okay, so the
both those boxes are checked. The stat that I want
to unearth here, though, Scott, is that Pete Carmichael coming
in as offensive coordator I think is a massive, massive
boon to his passing game usage. You look over the
ten years or excuse me, basically every single year templus
hears like in New Orleans as the OC for the Saints,
Carmichael's offense is never ranked lower than tenth in target
chair to the running back position. And I know everybody's
gonna hear that, and they're gonna say, Okay, hold up,
stat bro, You're you're conflating two different things. You just
gave a Sean Payton stat but you think it's a
Pete Carmichael stat. Oh but contrere monfrera. Two years with
Pete Carmichael without Sean Payton in New Orleans still ninth
and tenth in target chair to the running back position.
Now again you juxtasupposed that like with Buffalo.
Speaker 3: Also the touching three by the way, like they're also
the same branch, so they're gonna be similar.
Speaker 2: And Joe Brady is from a lot like he his
tutelage was under Sean Payton too, like he spent time
in New Orleans and stuff. So you you look at
all of this and then you stack it up against
when Buffalo has done three years with James Cook in
the backfield target shairs to running backs that ranked twelfth, sixteenth,
and twenty third. So the question for me is is
not if James Cook gets a bump in the passing game,
it's how much and if he can step into being
out of that like fifty seven percent snapshare that he
had last year and into the sixty to sixty five
percent range. And I'm not even saying, Okay, fine, take
some of the early down rushing stuff off of his plate,
load him up with the freaking targets. Let's get the
pass game going. And if that all happens this year, Bodman,
Like again, I point back to James Cook. It's all
pass game stuff. Like, if he gets that bump, he
could be a top three back that you're drafting at
the end of the first round.
Speaker 3: I like this call out because my thought on James
Cook is that he's a high floor guy, like and
he's a high floor guy because of the touchdowns that
he has provided with Josh Allen as the quarterback. Right
so I have him at RB five. I believe his
current ECR is RB five. It is in tier two.
But you said, did you say you have him in
the top three of your army?
Speaker 2: I have him RB three right now. I have him
RB three.
Speaker 3: CMC and Taylor.
Speaker 2: Then I have him to get ahead of CMC and Taylor,
and I have CMC pushed up into an area of
the first round where people will still get access to him.
But I want to be very cognizant of like I'm
trying to embody or I guess like like a little
bit of the risk that stands with CMC while also
like kind of shaving it enough to where if people
want to because I think CMC is a binary decision.
It's like, if he stays healthy, he's the top two back.
If he doesn't get if he doesn't stay healthy, then
then you're screwed. I want I want exposure to him,
and I want people to get exposure to him, but
I also want to project the people that like, I'm
over the moon for James Cook this year.
Speaker 3: Okay, Okay, I think I did think that you had
CMC on your hate initially, but I don't think I
see hm no no, no, no, no, okay, okay, I my mistake.
Speaker 2: But no, I had CMC originally on this list, Like
when we were talking prepping for this show, I actually
had CMC on my love list, okay, because there's some
very interesting metrics that we could dive through about CMC.
But you know, alas for another day, my friend.
Speaker 3: And Also, I think you're right. I think the the
point on CMC is exclusively binary, right it is? Are you?
It's the four hundred touches you're either out because of
the four hundred touches or you say I don't care
about four hundred touches. They didn't play it all in
the playoffs. And he was amazing last year after getting
this stem cell thing in Germany. After seeing what he
did after getting that, I'm like, why aren't we all
getting this? You know what I mean? Like a dude
with an injury history as prolific as CMCs to stay
healthy at this age with insane usage that Shanahan still
gives him was somewhat surprising. And I still have CMC
at three. But I love this extra point about James
Cook is how I consider it is. Look, he already
gives you the floor with the touchdowns, and he might he's.
Speaker 2: Giving you the ceiling case.
Speaker 3: Dude, you are absolutely my first love. Here, I'm going
to talk about Omari and Hampton, who was fourth inside
the five percentage for his team at eighty percent of
the carries. The only two running backs that were higher
than Omarian Hampton last season were Derrick Henry and Ashton
Genty and right now his ECR is currently at RB ten.
I know some people are kind of waffly because he
missed games last year. But a lot of people are
positive because Mike McDaniel's coming over, and I think that's
the point I agree with. Out of fifty nine qualified
running backs from Fantasy Points, he was eighth and explosive
run percentage it's six point five percent six point five percent,
and explosive yard it's total for him was thirty five
point four percent. He was eighth in first read among
running backs, which is eight point nine percent, and tenth
in team targets at eleven point four percent. He was
twentieth and miss tackles forced per attempt, which is way
higher than his you know, carries because he only played
in nine games. So for o'mari and Hampton here, I
think it is going to be. Uh, it is going
to be a very impressive season. I think people are
still sleeping a little bit on him, and I just
want to I just want to put myself in the
camp of Marian Hampton because I do have him in
my second tier running backs. My second tier goes from
four to ten here, right, I do have him at
the bottom of it. But even at the bottom, I
think Omari and Hampton is going to be this season.
Where do you have Hampton.
Speaker 2: Rings RB eight bead of me.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, No.
Speaker 2: I mean I'm in on Hampton because I've think, dude,
I think Hampton is just an upside swing. If he
truly hits, he's gonna he's gonna be the one of
the guys that you could draft that shifts league like
he's a difference maker if he does. And that's that's
you know, it's not that like I'm just willing to
after years and years of playing fantasy, I don't give
a crap about a player's floor. I care about their ceiling.
And because if they hit their ceiling, am I willing
to ingest the risk? Sure, totally willing to do that
because if Hampton and this goes Randy player, if I
see the ceiling case of him, and if I feel
like it's one of these players that if they hit
their ceiling they can flip leagues, then I'm willing to
sit here and be uber aggressive about it. And Hampton's
one of those guys.
Speaker 3: Absolutely who is your second love here?
Speaker 2: So I'll start this off with if I just take
the name out of it, and I tell you this
wide receiver amongst one hundred and nine qualifying wide receivers
was third in route win rate in eighth and separation.
People would be like, oh, I really want to draft
that guy. I am sure that he's probably like a
wide receiver one or wide receiver two in ranks. Okay, well,
if I were to expand that too, this same wide
receiver amongst those hundred and nine qualifying wide receiver, Scott
was also twenty third in yards per route run, twentieth
in yards per route run against man, sixth, then route
win rate against man, third in separation against zone, and
oh guy, hey, look at that second in route win
rate against zone. So basically every single per route metric
he was in the top twenty four and for most
of them inside of the top ten. And yet this
is the year that everybody's like, you know what, I'm good.
I don't need to draft Ricky Piersoll. It's all good, like,
don't really want to have that guy on my team.
And I'm like, okay, I get it. You got burned
in the first two years because of injuries, and the
poor dude got shot. But if we're talking about talent
and upside in situation and buying into good offenses, and
especially buying into players when they were a discount now
because everybody's like, oh I got crashed in two years
by having him, and now you can get him as
a wide receiver three or four in every single draft.
Count me all in.
Speaker 3: Scott, I think, because I only have him one spot
ahead of ECR here because it's ECR forty four, I
haven't which might sound like last I'm.
Speaker 2: Ahead is man, I have met wide receiver thirty six.
Speaker 3: Okay, so on low Land wide receiver three.
Speaker 2: Depending on how things go, Like, I truly think the
conversation for Ricky Piersoll starts at like wide receiver twenty eight.
Speaker 3: Okay, that so like it's almost fringe. Yeah, and I
understand that there's a lot of upside here with Ricky Piersaw.
And I think beyond just the numbers that you gave us,
let's think about volume. Because volume is the most important
number in fantasy, right. You get the most uh, you
get the most opportunities to make something happen, even if
you're not efficient. If you get more cracks at it,
the more likely you are to rip off a big
one or make a big play or something like that.
The volume is king, and he definitely is going to
have that this season. We have you know, CMC is
going to get his usage, but he's getting older and
he's coming off four hundred touches. We can't do this
again and expect the guy of his age to stay
healthy the entire season. So that's point number one. Point
number two, When is George Kittle coming back? And when
is he going to look completely effective and back to
George Kittle? Probably not in twenty twenty six, to be
completely honest with you. And then we have Mike Evans,
who's the big dog here who I love. I love
Mike Evans. I love it two seasons in a row.
And of course the big part that everyone looks over.
Put your tinfoil hat on, is this electric center behind
the I'm just screaming there. I don't believe it.
Speaker 2: You know how I feel about it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's all conspiracy. There's so uh you know, look,
I there is so much ceiling for Ricky Piersaw, Dude,
if he can be my first wide receiver on the
bench or my flex option, that's exactly where I want him.
That is where he's out of value. I think as
a wide receiver. Three I'm a little more queasy. But
like you said, the upside is probably wide receiver two,
potentially even higher. This the guy who's a first round pick.
We know brock perty is a good quarterback once he
gets rolling and stays healthy, So I really like this
call out as well. My second love here, I'm going
to talk about Zay Flowers, who I know some people
are probably tired of hearing me talk about. But out
of ninety seven qualified wide receivers, he was third in
team yards last season at thirty six point one percent.
Only JSN and Puka Nakua were higher, and he's currently
ECR wide receiver sixteen. He was fifth in separation score overall.
He was seventh in wide reh in points in half
and full PPR, fourteenth in points per game in half,
thirteenth in PPR, seventh in yards per route run, ninth
in yards per target, twenty second in targets per route run,
seventh in win percentage. He was second in miss tackles
force among wide receivers, eighth in miss tackles force per reception,
tenth in YAK, eighteenth in YAK per catch, eighth in
yards per target over expected, twelfth in receiving yards per game,
seventeenth in targets and twenty first in air yard share.
If you need any more about Zay Flowers, and they
got rid of Isaiah Likely, and the offense is going
to get more vertical with Deckland Doyle coming in, so
I know he doesn't score touchdowns. That is the big
thing that everybody wants to remind me of. Even our
boy Worm who's a Ravens fan, won't get on my level.
Was Zay Flowers here because he's watched them playing. He
doesn't get extra end zone shots. But if you're if
your guy is giving you this high of a floor,
and maybe there's more touchdowns for him because he hasn't
scored them. I'm not saying they're definitely gonna come. I
wouldn't even depend on them. But with these numbers, you
don't have to depend on him getting in the end
zone because you know, you add a guy like Serrat
might be good. Jacobe Lane might be good specifically near
the end zone, but you get rid of Likely. You know, Hopkins.
Isn't there anymore? Who is number two? Who is taking
targets away from Zay Flowers? My answer is nobody. So
I think we're gonna see a lot of the same.
This dude could end up in the top ten and
he's going as a middle of the pack wide receiver too.
Speaker 2: Right now, yep, I agree with you, and I'm right
in line with ECR. I can make a case for
him higher. And as far as the touchdown stuff, didn't
people say that about aman Rossaint Brown until he bucked
that trend Like his first two years in the Sea
into his career he scored six and five touchdowns and
then he rattled off twelve twelve or ten, twelve and eleven.
So it's like you're not a touchdown scorer until you are.
Sometimes and at this point, like say, Flowers is really
freaking good no matter whatever metric you pull up, Like
I think he is a locked in wide receiver two.
But again, when we're parsing through the wide receiver two
range and we're splitting hairs with all these guys, I'm
only going after guys in that range that in my
mind's eye or with usage or anything related to that,
you gotta have wide receiver one upside if everything comes together,
and if you don't have wide receiver one upside, I'm
really not interested in with you. As far as like
I don't want to draft a wide receiver two and
ADP and just be like, I just hope that he
produces as a wide receiver two. You know, just do
what I think you're gonna do, and I'll be happy.
Speaker 3: Well, look, this is a floor of a wide receiver
two who performed as a wide receiver one last year.
So yeah, we're in on Zay Flowers. Who's number three
for you?
Speaker 2: Rema Dobbs. Baby, I think he's gonna have a fantastic
season for the New England Patriots. I know that I'm
considerably considerably above ECR right now. I've got him at
wide receiver forty, and I can make you a case
to push him into the wide receiver three range. I
just can't do with some of the names that are there.
But Romeo Dobbs last year amongst the same set of
one hundred and nine wide receivers, which is basically every
wide receiver that had at least two hundred routs last year.
So amongst that sample, Romeo Dobbs last year twenty third
in separation score, fifth in route win rate. The problem
with Romeo Dobbs is not a Romeo Dobbs problem. The
problem with Romeo Dobbs in previous years was the moneyball
approach with the Green Bay wide receivers, and he is
going to be a full time player. He's going to
get a bumping routes and with that because the talent
that has just laid out with those two numbers, he's
going to get a bump of targets. And for everybody
that's out there saying, oohooooo, Drake May just spreads the
ball around. That's what you do when you don't have
target earning guys in the offense, when you don't have anything.
Speaker 3: He's pushing Romeo Dos.
Speaker 4: Why do you think Kshaw Boody wants to get traded
away for New England because he knows that he ain't
getting that type of usage this year that he had
last year. Because they went out they said, yeah, that's
a really cute like wide receiver room.
Speaker 2: Oh by the way, we're just gonna add aj Brown
and Romeo Dobbs to it. So yeah, like Romeo Dobs
is gonna get his this year, and I think he's
gonna be a wide receiver three when everything is said
and done.
Speaker 3: I have him as a wide receiver four, which is
currently higher than his.
Speaker 2: Is one of the fifties two.
Speaker 3: Yeah, So Yeah.
Speaker 2: If I'm cheap access into a pass heavy offense tied
to one of the best quarterbacks in the entire freaking NFL,
why are people just bypassing that Scott Like I don't
get that, we can.
Speaker 3: Get him as a wide receiver five now, right, the
floor is insanely high with Romeo Dobbs. So take him
as your fifth wide receiver, and if somebody gets hurt
early you get you're gonna be You're gonna have a
very high floor player back. Get him up. My third
guy here, I'm gonna go with Chris Godwin. Ninth in
yack per reception at six point two, and he was
wide receiver twenty one in PPR when he came back
last season. He's a year beyond his last cleanout per
surgery at this procedure. At this point, I'm dude him
sandwiching words together today thirteenth and yack per reception in
twenty twenty four as well at six point nine yards
per reception, and we have all of Mike Evans' targets
are gone, right, So I think when you look at
this offense, you have the krusty veteran and Chris Godwin,
who has a very high floor. Really the really the
bottom out problem with Chris Godwin. It's just injury related, right,
Baker being hurt as well could do something like it
obviously did last year. But we're just finding out that
Baker played through you know, a sprain PCL and MCL
along with the shoulder issue last year he played hold.
Speaker 2: He played through a sprained body. I think that's how
it needs to be. Just like his entire body from
head to toe was sprained, like, I don't know a
better way to describe it, Scott.
Speaker 3: And this is this is still a pass first offense, dude,
Like it's still going to be a pass for offense.
And that is why you go out and you get
gain well, right, because a dude can catch passes out
of the backfield. He can replace a lot of what
Bucky does if Bucky does get hurt again. Right, So
you get rid of Mike Evans, you know where he
doesn't resign however you want to say it, but you
have him at BUKA. You have Chris Godwin, you have
Jayleen mill. Now I think that Chris Godwin is going
to be a massive part of this. We've already heard
the reports of maybe he's number one. I still think
personally that's probably going to end up being a Buka.
But this is like a mini Bengals offense here, right.
It's like you have Chasin Higgins, you have Godwin and
Ed Buka in Tampa Bay and currently you know, he's
an ECR wide receiver thirty six. That's where I have
him as well, so you know, but I think that
bakes in the potential injuries with him because this is
a guy with I think if he plays the whole season,
his floor is probably as a wide receiver too. It's
just wide receiver is deep right now, and this is
a guy that offers you a lot, specifically early in
the season. So what are your thoughts on Godwin? Where
do you have him ranked?
Speaker 2: I'm kind of in between on him. I've got him
a wide receiver forty four, but it's not because I
hate Chris Godwin. It's just in that range. Like I
have Dobbs ahead of him, I have Jade Higgins ahead
of him. I've got other guys that like Again, like
I think you could start making the case for Chris
Godwin at the back end of wide receiver three land
and stuff like that, but then it's like I've got
players like Ricky Pearsoll and Quinton Johnston pushed up ahead
of him, just like with youth and talent and upside.
It's just like yeah, yeah, exactly, Like I feel like
we're splitting hate errors in that entire range and God's
gonna here.
Speaker 3: And this is But the point is is this is
the group that you need to be buying wide receivers from, yes, right,
because there's so much upside, there's so much floor. It's
what flavored you like the most. This is where you
need to be buying, at least well, especially.
Speaker 2: In the Year of Our Lord in twenty twenty six,
when everybody's all in on running backs, you're gonna have
to catch up with wide receiver if you do, go RB,
RB and what have you in that.
Speaker 3: But I think it's a good year to go hide
at RB because agreed among the receivers, who's next on
your love list?
Speaker 2: Oh man, Jayleen Cocher, I just I'm not buying the
I'm not paying the iron price for tederomycmillan in drafts
right now. I'm just not. And this is not a
tech problem. This is a Carolina passing volume problem. And
this is a Bryce Young problem. So I feel like
if if I knew tedoromy Millan was gonna get a
volume bump Carolina was gonna throw more than they did
last year, than I would be paying for tetoo because
I again like he was my wide receiverer one of
the draft class him didn't listen to any of the
crap coming out about him being too slow, not watching film,
all that kind of bs. So this isn't a tech problem.
But to say this is, I'm going to be drafting
a lot of Jaalen Cocher in drafts because the gap
that exists in drafts in ADP between Ted and Jalen
Coker should not exist because I think both of them
have the similar problems with the passing volume and a
Bryce Shung problem. But in Jaillen Cocher, you're not paying
for that. You're getting free access to Jalen Cocher at
the back end of drafts. And the reason like I
want to bring him up here is that if you
look at last year, because Jaillen Cocker was not healthy
to begin the season, and the healthiest portion of his season,
so weeks ten through nin or excuse me, thirteen through nineteen,
and yes I'm pulling in the playoff game there. If
you stack up Tedro McMillan versus Jailen Cocher and that
Scott that part Scott So weeks thirteen through nineteen, Ttero
McMillan versus Jailen Cocher. Ted had an eighteen point three
percent target chare, Jalen Cocher had a twenty percent target share.
TED head set one point seven eight yards per route
run Jalen Cocher two point three zero red zone targets
one for TET, four for Coker. First read share twenty
six point one percent for TET, twenty eight point three
percent for Jalen Cocher. And I'm not saying all of
this to say that Jalen Coker will be the wide
receiver one in Carolina this year. But what I'm saying
all of this to illustrate when both of these guys
were on the field then the back half of last
season and Jalen Cocher was at his healthiest, this passing
attack revolved around the two of them, and Jalen Cocher
is going to get just as big of a pie
with Tetroy McMillan and so It's like you're eating all
of the risk of the downside with Teterro McMillan at
where you're drafting him as a mid or high end
wide receiver two. But none of that is baked into
Jalen Coker's price, into how much of the target pie
he's gonna have in Carolina. I would much rather bet
his price in drafts that he outplays his ADP than
saying Tech can live up to his or surpass it.
In twenty twenty six.
Speaker 3: Man Cocher is so tough for me because I'm lower
on on him than consensus, and it is a tier
part him. I have sixty one, so I have not
been in because mainly it's because the issue that he's
had injury wise is the same thing two years in
a row. It's the calf two years ago.
Speaker 2: I know you're you're more scared about injuries and not
saying scared, you're more hesitant about injuries and stuff like.
I think that's just a.
Speaker 3: Difference that plus Bryce Young like you were mentioning Tech. Yeah, yeah,
So like the guys I do have ahead of him, uh,
mainly are in better offenses, not all of them, but
like I have Rashid Shahid ahead of him, right, who
is you know in a better offense? The Seahawks are
a better offense, uh worthy, Golden Washington here your boy
QJ and Higgins and Wilson, Like these guys are all
in better offenses than Carolina is. So I have him
in with Like, you know, where the hell is Tyreek
Hill gonna go? If he's Kansas City, that that would
be amazing, But I don't know if that's gonna happen.
Speaker 2: I don't think Tyreek's gonna play football in twenty twenty six. Yeah,
I don't think he will.
Speaker 3: But like an Mitchell Antonio Williams, I'm probably too low
on Coker to be honest with you, but I just
I can't get there because of the CAF issue, because
of the bad offense. I just and like if leaguet
ever pops off, I don't think he will. I think
we won with that, but I.
Speaker 2: Don like.
Speaker 3: So there there's a little bra Brassel is more of
a boom er bus play. He's a deep threat. He's
not going to eat up targets like like Coker. Coker.
For me, I'm definitely more willing to buy in PPR right,
So that is that that is kind of the thing.
Speaker 2: To that point where do you have Ted ranked? If
your lower on are you just lower on that offense too,
or are we kind of like riding?
Speaker 3: I have at eleven, so I think I'm like right
on him fifteen right now.
Speaker 2: Wow, See, I'm massively I'm massively below market on Ted
just so I am worried about Bryce Shung and stuff
like that.
Speaker 3: I guess the reason that I'm a little higher on
Ted is that he's going into the second year, and
we typically from a good performer, we typically see So
that's that's why I'm higher on Ted than I am
even in a rough offense. And also just like if
we are talking upside, I don't think there are many
people that have more touchdown upside than Ted. We just
need to get to the point where we can score
touchdowns and and he is going to be there. All right?
So yours was Cocher. Here. My next one is another.
I'm going to go back to running back and I
go back to Jalen Warren And this is because I
feel like and I still have them close. I have
him and doubt will close. But I think that there's
the people that say, oh, well, that'll work with McCarthy.
They signed him. This is Dowdell's job. No doubt. ECR
has actually impressed me because it's twenty seven for Warren
and it's thirty one for Dowdle. So the market is
keeping Warren ahead of Doddle, which I think is correct.
But I know it's not for everybody's thought process, right.
Speaker 2: No, I think it's correct.
Speaker 3: Let's just look at this in a vacuum of stats, right,
miss tackles force per attempt. Jalen Warren was sixth in
the NFL last year. Daddle was nineteenth, which is still
very good. Right, You're still a top twenty guy. But
Warren was better. Yards after contact per attempt. Warren was ninth.
Doddell was great, he was eleventh, but Warren was still better.
Successful run percentage fourteenth for Warren, fortieth for Doddle. That
one was a big. A lot of that had to
do with offensive line play, though, and we know it
was kind of rough in Carolina last year. Inside the
five percentage, this is the won the Dowdle beats Jalen
Warren in He was eighth last season, and Warren was
fifty three point eight. He was eighteenth. Yards per target
six for Dowdle in the passing game, fourteenth or I'm sorry,
six for Warren in the passing game, fourteenth for Dowdle.
Yards after contact per reception, My boy, Jaalen Warren was
first among running backs. Second was Chuba Rico's teammate, which
is kind of funny, and but Rico was still eight
like he was still good. But Warren was the best
in the NFL at that among running backs last year,
yards per out run Warren again third in the NFL
among running backs. Dowtle thirteenth targets in PPR or in
points per reception six for Warren, fifteenth for Dowdle. So
anyone saying that Dowdle is gonna come in here and
be the no doubt back, I think you're looking at
this not from the right angle, because Jalen Warren is
being slept on, he's not being talked about. I think
he's gonna end up being an RB two season, and
he's being drafted as an RB three, and some people
are passing on him to take Rico Dawdle, And I
just don't think that's the right thought process. What are
your thoughts on the Steelers backfield for twenty six.
Speaker 2: I've got Warren in RB twenty seven and doubt led
RB thirty two. I think we're gonna see McCarthy run
a very similar thing. If everybody wants to go back
to yesteryear of like Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams when
he was in Green Bay, I think it's gonna be.
I think Warren is gonna be the clear passing down
back and stuff while working in on Like I kind
of feel like if you look at Jalen Warren's role
in previous years with him and Nausey Scott, I kind
of feel like we're gonna get like an elevated version
of that. And then it just and then we're playing
the game of where did the touchdowns go? You know,
like who's on the field whenever they're near the goal line,
I don't know, should be there you go? There you go?
But like so like I've been a Warren stand for years, man,
I've got receipts out there of like I love Jalen Warren.
Whenever he was signed as a u DFA like in Dynasty,
I told everybody to stash him. He should have never
gone undrafted. So I freaking love Jalen Warren. And this
isn't like a one year blip of him like being
one of the most efficient running backs on a per
touch basis. He's done this almost every damned year of
his career. Scott so like so like expecting him to
stay really damn good is not anything insane.
Speaker 3: Just overlooked even I did it. You know, last year,
I was kind of thinking, a man, they spent that
high pick on Caleb Johnson they want I was.
Speaker 2: All in on Caleb. I was all on Cale because
I love Caleb as a prospect, and then they shoved
him FuMB he fumbled that, which, by the way, Tom,
why do you have Caleb Johnson on kickoffs? I'm sorry,
but that's some kakamii bs.
Speaker 3: Anyway, amen, Amen, I did not like that either. Give
us another love here, debro who you got.
Speaker 2: Oh dude, it's Colston Lovelin. I'm all in on Coaston
Loveland this year. I don't want to, you know, pay
pay the money for the Golden Goose and Brock Bowers.
I will draft him in some leagues, but I feel
like you're accessing a player that is going to compete
with Brock Bowers to be the tight end one overall
this year, and you're not having to pay for it,
like you're paying through the nose for Bowers and drafts.
And I said this about Trey McBride and nobody wanted
to listen to me. Last year. I thought about it
with people on I was like, treyman bride should have
last year. I said it, and people go pull receipts.
I was like, he should be a first round pick
in fantasy and everybody's like, ah, okay, fine, and he
just leads, you know, wins people leagues. And I feel
like that type of upside exists for Colts and Colston
Loveland this year because if you looked at when he
was finally a full time player in the Bears offense
the week sixteen through twenty last year, and I'm going
through go through a laundry list of numbers here real fast,
but I probably I'm going to tie a bow on
this eva end in weeks sixteen through twenty last year.
You got a twenty five point six percent target share.
He averaged eighty one point six receiving yards per game.
He had two point four to nine yards per route
run hit a thirty four percent first read share. He
had point one point one six first downs per route run. Okay,
the reason I go through those five categories is that
when we saw Colston Lovelin as a full time player
and an integral cog in the Bears passing attack in
those games, those per route numbers and market share numbers,
those numbers Scott were better than the season that Trade
McBride had in twenty twenty five. And they were also
better on a per route basis than Brock Bauers had
in twenty twenty four. So the last two tight end ones,
he bested them when he was finally a full time player.
And then people are like, yeah, but I don't know
if Colston Lovelin can do with cole Comette there, bro
If you're worried about Cole Comette stealing work from Colston
Loveland this year, I don't even know what to tell you. You
need to rank him as outside the top twelve.
Speaker 3: Then it wouldn't be all the way out before the
season started, right.
Speaker 2: No, I would either, because they drafted Sam Rousch exactly exactly.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they might trade come out before the season even starts.
Speaker 2: If you are commanding elite volume. You are an elite player,
and we've seen this how many different years, but at
the wide receiver position, and people did the same damn
thing Scott. They said, oh, Rashi Rice only had that
small blip of usage. He ain't gonna repeat that next year,
But he did. People did the same freaking thing with
Amaran sam Brown and said, oh, he can't repeat that
type of usage, but he did. And they're doing it
with Coulston Loveland this year. I think he is the
tight end. I think he's gonna fight Rock Bowers for
the tight end one overall. And instead of paying up
for that guy inside of the top twenty players, you
can get him in the third or fourth round of drafts.
It's a cheat code.
Speaker 3: I haven't got there quite yet, but I do what
I did do recently was I said, okay, well, I
can't have Colson Lovelin in this second tier of tight ends,
so I made him his own tier, right, So I
do have Bowers McBride ahead of him. I'm with you
on this too.
Speaker 2: I have him as much tight end too.
Speaker 3: Okay, okay, uh So I you know Fitz has talked
about the downfall of Trey McBride for this season as well,
and I think he's correct, But I do think they're
still going to pass a lot because it canna be
down a lot. Their defense still sucks. So I do
think Trey McBride can have a good year, but last
year was almost unmatchable, right, So.
Speaker 2: He ran one hundred and sixty more routes than every
other freaking tight end.
Speaker 3: That's not insane, So it's just it's just an insane
number that can't be hit again. So uh but I
I have another tight end here to talk about with love,
and that is Tyler Warren, who is going right.
Speaker 2: I love Tali Warren too. I love Tyler Warren too.
Speaker 3: Sixth and team target percentage among tight ends, which is
you know, it's forty three qualified tight ends. But he
was also fifth in routes per drop back, fifth in
UH receiving YAK, He was sixth in first read percentage
among tight ends. He was twelfth in total points per
route run, and one hundred and eleven targets are gone
out of this offense with with Michael Pittman getting shipped
off to Pittsburgh. So you know, I know that Josh
Dowens has been the talking point for a lot of
people in Indy. We'll get to him in a little
bit here, but I think you know, specifically for a
guy that succeeded in year one as a rookie tight end,
Colson Loveland two, right, this is a rare thing that
had Brock. Things like Brock Bauers this in his rookie
season in this SS don't typically happen, right. It usually
takes a year or two for a tight end to
get off the ground. It's what happened to try McBride, right,
He took a season to get off the ground. But
to have early success in your career and to be
in a place where they traded their number one target
and you know they gave them money to Alex Pierce.
We expect Pierce to to be a big part of
this offense. But I think you're looking at Tyler Warren.
He does everything that josh Awens doesn't. He gets opened
to down, he breaks tackles, he makes people miss. Josh
Allence doesn't do any of that. So I think if
we're looking for someone to take a step up in
the wake of Michael Pittman being gone, and they've even
still talked about signing Keenan Allen. That might happen, So
you know, it might be a lot of Michael Pittman
just being replaced by by Pittman. But even if they
do sign Keenan Allen, not every one hundred eleven targets
aren't going to Keenan At this point in his career,
I think Tyler Warren is gonna eat The ceiling is
very high, and he already has an established floor. I
think that's the thing that I like about Tyler Warren
more than anything is we saw the floor last year
as a rookie. I think it's just growing from this point.
Specifically this He's part of the reason why they traded Pittman.
So I think that Tyler Warren is going to take
a massive step up this year and potentially push himself
into that group of tight end ones. Do you think
he can get there? Can he by the end of
this year? Can he get in the group of Loveland,
Bowers and McBride.
Speaker 2: I've got a tight end for some saying it with
my ranks that I think he can or he's right
outside of that. Yeah, yeah, I think so. The thing
with Tyler Warren is that, and we also had taught
like Ballock Pierce injury and stuff like that. If he's
slow to start the season. It's like, I think there's
a world we could be living in easily. And to
your point with Josh Towns, I think the answer with
Josh Towns is just draft more Tyler Warren. So I
think we easily could be living in a world at
the end of the season. Scott that Tyler Warren and
not Alec Pearson, not Josh Downs, leads this team in
targets and comfortably does.
Speaker 3: So, yeah, I think he definitely could be right. You
have two more loves than I do, so let's hear
him both back to back. Here, who do you got
last on your love list?
Speaker 2: These are two wide receivers changing homes. One everybody is
in on and one is lagging behind in rankings. And
I think it's insane because we're basically making the same
exact case for Jaln Wattle and AJ Brown. Both of
them moved from run heavy offenses to pass heavy offenses.
Both of them are still elite on per route metri.
Aj Brown was he is not washed. Anybody that tells
you he has washed is not looking at numbers, and
it's all BS narrative. Street you look at that same
one hundred and nine wide receivers last year for a J.
Brown ninth and target chare seventeenth and yards per route
run eighth and first reach here twentieth and first first
downs per route run at sixteenth and route win rate.
None of that says he's washed, So don't buy the narrative.
Buy him in drafts and Jalen Waddell again, it's all
of this stuff was missed because he operated with a
team trying to hide the quarterback and trying to run
the ball to again hide the quarterback, and with Jalen
Wattle again, amongst the same sample size of wide receivers,
he was top twelve in every single metric that I
care about. Scott, He's gonna be the unquestioned wide receiver one.
And then for this year, how Courtland Sutton. They tried
to replace him as the wide receiver one with Troy
Franklin during a stretch of last year. So if Courtland
Sutton could barely hold off Troy Franklin, what the hell
you think he's gonna do withal Wattle in town? And
for all the Denver stands are out there that are
in my comments and mentions and saying, yeah, Denver's gonna
run the ball. Did they get a new coach not
named Sean Payton, because that's not happening.
Speaker 3: Either. No, they straight in.
Speaker 2: A first round pick for a wide receiver to run
the ball. Come on, man, like, what are we doing here?
Speaker 3: Agreed? And look, I'm a Cortland Sutton stand.
Speaker 2: I like Courtland Sutton. I like him, but he's not
the wide receiver one.
Speaker 3: He's better, dude, Yeah, I agree, I agree with that.
So uh yeah, wattles better. Like the way that Sutton
matches Wattle in production, it would have to be in touchdowns,
like that's the only way, right, Well, I.
Speaker 2: Think that passing game condenses around the two of them,
Like where we've seen the passing game. The only full
time player in the Denver offense last or the last
two years has been Courtland Sutton. This year it's gonna
be Jalen Waddle and Courtland Sutton and then a rotating
cast of characters behind those.
Speaker 3: Yeah really, Troy Franklin, Bryan Oh yeah, crushed.
Speaker 2: It crushes him. Mark Marvin Mimms is sending to the
punt return.
Speaker 3: Ether, right, Marvin Mims, oh Man, Marvin Marvin Mims is
like put him in Buffalo or something, put him with
Josh Allen, just someone with.
Speaker 2: The Marvin Mims is everybody's favorite player to want to
be hypop and it's just like, it's just it's just
not going to happen. Just just face facts.
Speaker 3: Let me kick you off with some hates here. And
I know I've gotten a lot of pushback for the
first one here, and it's it's definitely not the player,
it's the value that people see within him. This year
to start, it's ken Walker for me, and the biggest
thing to me, and you know I've already talked about
it on this show is volume right. And ken Walker
was twenty six in touches during the regular season last year,
and he's going as an RB one. He's going to
RB twelve. I have him much lower than that. I
have him at RB fifteen, So you know, he is
a little bit lower to me. I can't get him
as a wider as an RB one in my But
it's not only that is he was, I mean, the
dude was still first and explosive percentage. He was first
in misstackles force for Kerry. But is he going to
get this expanded, gigantic workload that everyone expects him to
get because Mahomes is hurt and the Chiefs have not
had a dominant running back yet. And I understand, Look,
there's no one behind him. There's no one behind him.
Everybody says that. I think Brishard Smith in a second
year could take a nice step. Also, it's only his
third year or fourth year of playing running back. He
was a wide receiver at SMU before this same story
with Courtland Sutton at SMU switched from safety to wide
receiver and came to the NFL in his third season
playing wide receiver, so he's learned a lot on the job.
But Emmett Johnson had two hundred and ninety seven touches
for Nebraska last year. He was the definition of a
workhorse and for ken Walker too, forty eighth in rushes
inside the five last year because they gave it all
to Charbonnay in Seattle. Right, Henderson is behind Henderson, gain Well,
Woody marks, Devin Singletary in carries inside the five percentage. Right,
he was fifty three to fifty nine in rush success
rate forty three or fifty nine in the tough percentage
last year he had zero games with more than twenty touches,
two games with twenty and nine games under fifteen touches.
Last season, two hundred and fifty five touches as a
rookie are his most that he has had in a
single season. He should break that number this year. I'm
not saying that. I'm not saying he won't get an
expanded role in Kansas City, but we have to remember
his injury history with an expanded role, right He started
his career dealing with a hamstring injury in camp, missed
the opener after Hernie's surgery, plus one other game with
an ankle issue. He missed multiple weeks in twenty twenty
three with an ab issue he uh twenty twenty four,
he missed two weeks with an obleaque early and one game.
He only played one game after Week twelve with a
calf strain as well. So I feel like ken Walker
has shown us when you give him too many touches,
he breaks down. The reason he's explosive can make guys
miss is because he is part of a tandem backfield.
So I just don't know. I can't guarantee like other
people are a massive expanded role for ken Walker, gonna
be more touchdowns, Yes, gonna be more touches. It should be,
but I don't know if he's going to get enough
to get him to an RB one there. So I
love ken Walker the player, but I think he's shown
us if you give him too many touches, he's gonna
break down. And that's kind of why black and White
on ken Walker and why I don't like his ECR
right now.
Speaker 2: No, I understand it, and like I've always been a
pro kin Walker guy. I love the talent, I love
his per touch efficiency and stuff. I don't think that
he's gonna get loaded up with twenty carries a week.
I don't think that Kansas City's gonna become a run
first offense. What I do think that with Kenneth Walker,
and I understand the concerns with him a Johnson. I
loved him Johnson as a prospect, and I thought it
was insane, dude. I wanted him to fall to the
freaking Vikings so damn bad. Like I was like, please
go to the Vikings, like there's so much duplicity with
your skill set and Aaron Jones that actually might have been.
Speaker 3: I Loveaborn too, but I would have been over the moon.
Speaker 2: If oh, I would have been over the moon for
Emma Johnson. So like him landing Okse broke my heart,
much like Mike Washington landing with the Raiders, I was like,
I want to cry because I love both those backs.
But like to your point about ken Walker, I think
I don't disagree with you about the volume and stuff.
I don't see him becoming a twenty carry back that.
But I guess what we differ is I because I'm
above ECR, I've got him at RB nine. That where
I think we're different is he he is a really
damn good receiver, dude. Like over multiple years, like two
years in a row, he's top twelve and almost everything
you can look.
Speaker 3: At get the ball in his hands, it's shows.
Speaker 2: So I think that he's gonna get used more as
a receiver to where it's like, I don't want any
twenty carry games for ken Walker. What I want is
fourteen years sitting fit. Exactly what I want is fifteen
sixteen carries and give you like four receptions and more
off to the damn races, dude. So like That's where
I'm at with ken Walker, and I'm fine projecting he's
going to be the primary goal line back because they
paid him, so like I don't see like anybody on
that roster fighting him for goal line work outside of
Hunt oh see. And I think I think last year
was finally they were done with Kareem because like they're like, look, Kareem,
we know what we're getting. You're getting three to five
yards in a cloud of dust. And they were like,
look like we're not getting explosives in our passing game
anymore because we don't know what to do with too
high and we don't have the guys like to do that.
And like the NFL has switched more towards like I
mean the Kansas City Chiefs for the reason that that
the NFL did all this, like Mahomes and Tyreek broke
the NFL from single high. So the fact that case
he has had such a hard time adjusting the too
high stuff, I think they went back to the drawing
board and said, Okay, we got to get explosives. How
are we gonna do that. Oh, We're gonna sign Kenneth Walker.
And so like I think using him in the passing
game is gonna help like raise the floor and ceilings.
So that's why I'm in on him. But I understand
the downside of it. I absolutely get it, you know,
so you know, not a ton of pushback for me,
but I to kick off my hate. I don't know
where you're at with Lamar Jackson this year, I think, dude.
I so my problem with Lamar is not so much
a Lamar problem, because I still have him at KB five.
I just think having him as the QB two in
fantasy is honestly insane. That that part of this I
think is insane for a lot of different reasons. It's
that if you look at the totality of his career
over the last few years, and I won't even we'll
get to twenty twenty five here for a second, but
look at the previous seasons QB one, QB three, QB six,
QB seven, QB eight, QB one. There are two QB
one seasons in that what is that six years? The
other four years he's closer to my top five ranking
or my KB five ranking that he is of VCRs
QB two ranking. In QB two, it's like they're not bad,
there's no risk baked in. It's like, well, if Josh
Allen isn't the QV one, It's gonna be Lamar Jackson.
And I'm like, he's coming off arguably the worst season
of his entire freaking career where it's like, oh, yeah,
like the injuries and stuff, but everybody's chalking up everything
to Lamar in the back half of last year to
the injuries, and it's like, this dude's also got a
lot of wear on him. It's not like we can
like just say, oh, he's destined to stay healthy this year,
when every single year when it turns cold, Lamar gets
a cold, he gets a gi bug, he gets hurt,
he gets he misses games, and that happens almost every
damn year. And it's like, oh, he's also coming off
easily the worst season of his career. In weeks nine
through eighteen, Scott, he was the QB twenty in Fantasy
points per game. He wasn't even a QB one, And
this is all just like a just shoved under the rug,
like it didn't happen, and I'm like, but it did.
It did happen. And during that stretch again, weeks nine
through eighteen, we're not talking about a three game stretch
or a five game stretch, here amongst thirty four qualifying quarterbacks,
he was arguably one of the worst passers of the
football in the entire NFL. He was thirty third and
highly accurate throw rate. He was twenty six the catchable
target rate. We haven't even gotten into the offensive line.
We haven't even gotten to outside of eight flowers. Who
the hell do you feel good about in this passing attack?
But yeah, Lamar, Jackson, QV two and Easyr sure thing.
Speaker 3: Noo. I can't, I can't, I will, I will take
every argument. Can't for Drake May being QB two, I
don't like. That's fine washing. My first tier is the
first five wide receivers. Now I understand that almost everybody
has them in a tier of three right of Alan,
Lamar and May. I add in Joe Burrow and Jade
and Daniels. Not because I would ever take Joe Burrow
or Jade and Daniels ahead of those guys. But I
do think if everybody plays seventeen games, that Burrow and
Daniels could still be QB one, right Like, I do
think that that's in within the real realm of possibility.
I don't know that anybody else with playing seventeen games
could get there, right, I just don't know that they.
Speaker 2: Okay, so no it's not Caleb, but the guy that
I think and I'm gonna I just want to let's
walk down. Let's hold hands, and let's walk down Narrative
Street together.
Speaker 3: Okay, there's a lot of these trees on this street, man,
and no street lights. Where are we going?
Speaker 2: Okay, well, just close your street.
Speaker 3: A free candy van here, deep Where are we going?
Speaker 2: No, no, no, no, it's not. Just close your eyes
and pretend like we're walking down Bourbon Street and we're
right back into Orleans and again. Okay, fun times.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Both of these quarterbacks are coming off down seasons. Both
of these quarterbacks have a history of being QB one
in Fantasy points per game. Both of these quarterbacks are
also coming off down seasons in rushing department and passing department.
Both of these quarterbacks also have brand new offensive coordinators.
But because one of those offensive coordinators is coming from
the Ben Johnson tree, although we still don't know if
he's any good or not, he's getting a pass. The
other offensive coordinator is coming from Lafloor tree. Jalen Hurts
is falling in ADP and he's the QB six or
QB seven, depending on where you're looking at. And he
is absorbing. Oh, he's so freaking risky because they're gonna
ask him to do things that he's never done and
blah blah blah blah blah blah blah, and he's coming
off a down season. I can paint you the exact
same narrative for Lamar Jackson. Accept Jalen Hurts. And I
don't even know if this is arguably, I'm just gonna
say it's straight up. Jalen Hurts has the better offensive line,
we could say running back as a wash. As far
as pass catchers, Jalen Hurts has better pass catchers and
totality than Lamar Jackson. Accept. Lamar Jackson is QB two
and Jalen Hurts. It's like, but we don't know, we
don't know, and he's QB six or TB seven. Tell
me how that makes any damn sense.
Speaker 3: Scott, I don't, I, you know, I And he is
TB one upside because he's done it before. Just like Lamar,
I have him ma QB six, I have him a
QB three here. Uh So for me, Jalen Hurts, you know,
you're right, I do think the floor is very high.
I don't know that. I don't know that there is
more upside. The upside is scoring more rushing touchdowns from
the toush push and being QB one again, which is
fine if you want to put it in the hocket.
I'm okay with I don't over.
Speaker 2: The last few years. But he has a QB one
season under his freaking bill. Okay, but but also many
top two seasons as Lamar Jackson in the same fan.
Speaker 3: But how many how many QB won What was the
lowest rank of Lamar Jackson that you rattled off at
the beginning, because your point about him only being QB
one twice, But the way that you rattled it off,
how low was it was a QB seven QB eight.
Speaker 2: Which is the same, which is the same exact thing
as Jalen Hurts was last year. But again, mar Jackson
gets a pass, but Galen Hurts doesn't.
Speaker 3: Okay, look at it. I'm fine. I'm fine with Hurts
being pushed up in there, right, That's fine. I don't
hate the fact that I just think.
Speaker 2: The Declan Doyle glade is really covering up a lot
of things for Lamar Jackson.
Speaker 3: And I think that's you know, I'll tell you what
I do accept. I do accept that if Lamar is
uh injury hampered this season also like he was last year,
he can't be in this top tier of quarterbacks again, right,
because now it's every year we're going to have this injuries.
I wonder how much he hated playing for this offense
last year and getting beat up because Daniel File was
ollaying every single damn defensive lineman at the end of
the year and he was getting smacked around.
Speaker 2: But you think that's going to be better with the
offensive line that he's behind this year.
Speaker 3: Yes, Daniel was god awful.
Speaker 2: I'm not saying that he was.
Speaker 3: I'm not huge, but I think you have more depth, right,
And I think the I think the process is also
going to be to get the ball out a little
bit quicker, which could be good for Andrews and Serrat
and say Flowers, right, Save Flowers is a dude that's
great with the ball in his hands. To get the
ball in his hands quickly, we should get that ball.
Speaker 2: That's also gonna be That's also gonna be a lead
for Lamar. He's not been a timing timing and rhythm
thrower and stuff that's not Lamar Jackson. So it's also
gonna be like like people are talking about Jalen Hurts
has so much growth to make to adjust to like
over the middle in this sewn Manyon scheme, it's like
it's not being talked enough about. Like Lamar Jackson is
also going to have hurdles to cross with Declan Doyle's
scheme if it truly is a lot of picking and
choosing of Ben Johnson and timing based offense and stuff
like that. Like but again it's it's not it's not
baked in his ADP or his ranks, Like all of
the upside for Lamar Jackson is being squeezed out at
QB two, but none of the risk or anything else
is being equated into where he's being ranked or drafted.
And that's where it's.
Speaker 3: Like, do you think do you think Lamar is is
not done running? But do you think that like that
being a major part of his game is gonna go
by the wayside.
Speaker 2: I don't think it's gonna go by the wayside, but
I like I do think that there is something to
the truth of Lamar Jackson, Like if you look over
the last few years, like he's not Like I don't
think they're gonna pound him in at the goal line
it was three hundred.
Speaker 3: Well, he hasn't been doing that like for the last
couple of years and really never.
Speaker 2: So what I'm saying, like the rushing touchdowns the last
few years are two, three, five, four, and two, and
so if he doesn't get back into like being a
nine hundred.
Speaker 3: The rushing yards last year, yeah, So that's the thing
is I think with I think if his legs are
healthy coming in the season, we get back to that
is probably never gonna get back to like eight hundred
and nine.
Speaker 2: It's never gonna get back to like if you look
at a per game basis, if you look on a
per game basis, like fifty three yards per game in
twenty twenty four, fifty one yards per game in twenty
twenty three, I don't think we're gonna get back to
the previous realm of sixty three, sixty three point nine
sixty seven eighty. I don't think we're getting anywhere close
to that. Can he get back to where he's living
in like the fifty range, I.
Speaker 3: Think that could happen, all right, So I know you
have a heart out, so let's get your other two
hates and then I'll go through mine pretty quickly. Here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, dude, it's Chewba Hubbard. The Jonathan Brooks case is
also an anti Chewba Hubbard case. I just don't think
that people really understand that Chewba Hubbard, amongst forty nine
qualifying backs last year, was dead last to miss tackles
force per atent. He had zero explosive runs Scott on
over one hundred and thirty carries. He was also he
was also forty seventh yards of the contact Pert tempt
So basically every protect pertuct metric that you care about
that says, oh, you're good and you can create yards
on your own, he sucked that. So it's like, if
Jonathan Brooks is truly healthy, which I think he is. Yeah,
I think this is gonna be his backfilm and he's
gonna smash this year. Any quick thoughts about Chuba before
I kicked this over to Travis A.
Speaker 3: Chan. I I'm not a Cuba truther, but I feel
like I am because I have him ranked I think
higher than most other people. And it's not that I
love Chuba. I do think He's better than being credit
given credit for this, this bad explosion rate, this bad
miss tackles force rate. This dude basically came into the
season with a calf injury and I don't think he
ever recovered from it. That's why Rico got the big
recovery as well. And I think we just don't know
what we're getting from Brooks. I'm I'm fine with people
speculating on him. I talked to Deepak Shona on Monday.
That show aired on Wednesday on Fantasy Pros.
Speaker 2: And what did say about the A C L and stuff.
Speaker 3: I'm there he felt very good.
Speaker 2: Because if you look at his recovery time for him,
he should be one hundred percent right now. They're just
treating him a and I'm fine with that.
Speaker 3: But we have no idea what Jonathan Brooks is at
the NFL level at this point right because he's coming
off of major injury. He only played one season at
Texas as a starter, and it really was an eight
game stretch. He looked great, but it was an eight
game stretch behind one of the best offensive lines in
college football, right, so I do wonder what he's going
to look like behind you know, an average NFL offensive
line now that Ikey is hurt, and you know behind
Chuba Hubbard a veteran. So I my I think my
answer for Carolina is probably just don't take a lot
of players from Carolina this year.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah. I mean for me with Carolina, it's draft
Jamin Coker if you need a wide receiver late, and
draft Jonathan Brooks aggressively. And that's it for Carolina. Like
I'm not drafting anybody else out of the freaking offense.
Speaker 3: Who's next or who's last? I guess on your on
your hate list here.
Speaker 2: Travis cham Baby and people have been looking at him
the entire offseason like Alvin Kamara does not exist. And
I'm here to tell you Alvin Kamara exists. He's not
going away, like he's going to play a role in
this backfield. And it was.
Speaker 3: Surprising that they restructured him a little bit. I thought,
I mean, I didn't.
Speaker 2: Think he was gonna get cut like I then that's
kind of been my divide between I guess consensus and
and you know the space. Yeah yeah, Well the thing
about it is, dude, he's beloved in New Orleans. He
is a saint for life, like he would retire. But
like legit, like all that talk about he would retire
if they would trade him or something like that. I
fully believe that, like he is ingrained in that city,
that city's fiber dude, Like that's just who he is
and with the team he wants to play for. But
in all of that, I don't think anybody can honestly
give you a good faith conversation and and look at
you in the in the face, Scott, and tell you
that Travis chan is a better receiver than Alvin Kamara.
That and and yes we've had a fall off for
Alvin Kamara as far as like oh his per touch efficiency,
mistackles force and stuff like that. Bro, he's still elite
when you when you talk about him as a as
a receiver, he's still really freaking good as a receiver.
Like we look on a per touch basis, This dude
was still really stinking good last year like he was.
So I think it's two forward for Travis H. Chan. One,
he's gonna have his work eaten into It's not a
question for me if, but how much by Alvin Kamara,
and especially on the passing downs, but maybe also in
the red zone, but also Travis y Chan was bad
on a per touch basis last year. He just gobbled
up a crap ton of volume and got the goal
line work dude like he was thirty seven then explosive
run rate, thirty first to misstackle rate, and thirty fourth
in yards of to contact for attempt. So it's not
like he was good on a per touch basis. So like,
if you look at this, like, I'm like, invest in
the passing options for the normand Saints this year. I'm
just avoiding the backfield just all together because I think
week to week it's gonna be a mess. I think
if Alvin Kamara plays the elevated passing game role, it
depends on like script and you know who's on the
field for the red zone stuff. It's like and then
it's like, if you look at the actual nuts and
bolts of the contract that they gave Travis etend Like,
it wasn't like they gave him like this exorbitant amount
of money, Scott, Like if you really open up the
hood and look at his contract, like they can get
out of this contract after twenty twenty seven, So this
puffed up four year deal after this year, or excuse me,
after twenty twenty seven, so he's got two years after
that he has zero dead cat My man, they cut
him after is.
Speaker 3: You think he's insurance in case Alvin Kamara is just
hurt more than he is, like an automatic plug and
play starter.
Speaker 2: I think that they this backfield is much gonna gonna
be much more of a committee money than people than
people realize. I think it's gonna be so much more
situational based. I think we could also see a bunch
of twenty one personnel where we're getting to run backs
on the field with Kevin Moore and stuff. So like,
I think Kamara's role is going to be enough that
if people are looking at Travis Chan as being this
guy that is going to be this locked in definitive
like getting all the freaking touches type of volume back,
I don't see that. I think you're gonna see like
a lesser version of like a Kyra and Williams where
there's a Blake Korham like, but it's Alvin Kamara eating
into the work, except Blake Koram doesn't catch any damn passes. Well,
guess what, right, that's that's Alvin Kamara's m O baby dude.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I tell you what, I'm going to
do this because you're the Saints fan and you know
better than me. I'm gonna move him. I had him
at the bottom of a tier. I'm just going to
drop him to the top of the next year.
Speaker 2: I have him at RB twenty four right now. I'm
but no, on'm behind. Where's he at an ECR I'm looking, Oh,
at eighteen he's eighteen right now? So wow. Yeah, so
I'm dropping him to the back end of RB two
land and I'm willing to drop him further like they're
just some other guys whore like Price.
Speaker 3: Would you rather have?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have Bucket. I moved Bucky yesterday, one spot
ahead of him at RB twenty three.
Speaker 3: Okay, yeah, I have Bucky at eighteen. So I am high.
Speaker 2: I'll give you another name that I'd rather have because
I think that the consensus is wrong on them, because
I think he's gonna get all the freaking ball. I
have twenty poward comfortably ahead of him.
Speaker 3: Pollard. Okay, I think I'm gonna say Montgomery.
Speaker 2: So oh, Dave Montgomery is crushing him, by the way.
I have Dave Montgomery at RB seventeen.
Speaker 3: I know you're high.
Speaker 2: I love Montgomery, love Montgomery, all right, So.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna give you my hates real quick. And I
think I have these number of these players a lot,
so they're not uh, they're a little repeating for me.
But we already talked about Josh downs. Here's the numbers
that make me not like Josh. Towns eighty five and
a ninety seven. Qualified wide receivers in YAK per reception
two and a half and eighty two of ninety seven
in a DOT at eight point four is ECR right
now is wide receiver forty seven, which makes him a
low end wide receiver four. I don't hate him at
the call. I'm just not gonna be rostering that much.
I mean, most low YAKT per reception guys are high
in a DOT. The only guy that was lower than
him or as low as him in both of these
was Tyler Lockett from last year. And they talk about
moving him outside. You get better corners that are stickier
on the outside. And this dude has a forty two
and a half percent contested catch rate right which is
not great.
Speaker 2: Can't stay healthy either, Scott can't stay healthy.
Speaker 3: Yeah, exception was higher in twenty three and twenty four
it was five point six to four and five point four,
but his A dot was also not great then, Like
I think I think Warren pushed him further down as
far as A dot goes, and a guy that can't
break tackles that, okay, what are we getting. We're not
getting ends on targets. All we're getting is maybe receptions.
So like, what's his ceiling at that point? Is Wandell Robinson.
So just not my family. No, I agree, Bachelle Tuton.
I don't know where you're at on him, but.
Speaker 2: I like Baseel Tutan, so we can fight about him,
but I like him.
Speaker 3: It's not that I necessarily dislike base Sheelle Tutan, and
I do expect him to lead the Jags in UH
carries this year and touches, but I just don't think
he's way better than Chris Rodriguez. And I think the
numbers show that fifty six in explosive run percentage last
year one point two percent of his runs, sea Rod
was thirty fifth at three point six, so he better
than doubles that fifth and success rank for Tuton. That's
a good number, but sea Rod was better. He was
fourth in success rate. Uh same mistackles force per attempt
as Sea Rod zero point one eight. That's a good number.
They're both tied for eleventh, but Tuton doesn't push Sea
Rod out of the way with this number. Uh yards
after contact per attempt It was eighteenth for Tuton, second
for Sea Rod last year inside the five percentage, twenty
fifth or forty ninth at twenty five percent for our
boy Tuton. It was twenty ninth to forty two point
four percent for Sea Rod. And uh, I hate that
Tuton only had thirteen targets last year. Alan had ten,
Sea Rod with four. So Tuton had fifty catches in college,
but la Quinn Allen had one hundred and nineteen.
Speaker 2: I'm not worried about Allen.
Speaker 3: I'll definitely tell you okay, But what about a mir
Abdulla who's had two hundred nineteen catches since twenty fifteen
and is on the roster. That might be your receiving back.
So Sea Rod is gonna get goal line carries. In
my opinion, I think that neither one of them is
receiving back. Maybe Touton more than Sea Rod, of course,
but I think Alan or Abdullah come in on those
receiving downs, and so what is left for Tuton. It's
between the twenties and he wasn't insanely efficient, So I'm
just not I want to be rostering base shell Tuton.
I think the answer in Jacksonville is almost only Trevor
Lawrence this year, because we don't know how the wide
receivers are going to work. They want to use BTJ
on this thirteen personnel, which takes you know, Parker Washington,
who is their best wide receiver off the field, and
Jacoby Myners played more than Parker Washington down the stretch
and they re signed him to an extension. So I
don't like the mess of the wide receivers. I don't
like the mess of the running backs. I feel like
t law is the only Jag I'm going to roster
this season. Quick thoughts on Tooton and then I'll give
you my two tight ends.
Speaker 2: The small pushback about in all your numbers and we're
bringing up all these heavy analytics because Liam Cohen and
James Gladstone have already come out in the media and
said we care about these numbers too. To your point,
now splitting hairs too. With all of this and we're
talking about the inside the twenty work. You look at
red zone red zone carries last year, Bachiel Tooton had
a higher success rate and a lower stuff rate than
Chris Rodriguez. Both of them were very good, but Bachiel
Tooton was better, So that's probably yeah.
Speaker 3: I mean, I just think that they're not. Neither one
of them pushes each other off of carries, which is
annoying them. Eat.
Speaker 2: The nightmare scenario for Basil Tuton, and this is easy
to see. And I've said this before and I'll say
it again here. The nightmare scenario for Bachel Tutin is
that he is Jacksonville's Kenneth Walker. Yes, yes, that's the
nightmare scenario. That Chris Rodriguez is cannibalize them in the
goal line. He's getting all the freaking work at the
goal line. He won't get any work on passing down,
so we know that is try and true. But he
capsizes his touchdown when he crushes him into being just
a fall in dependent RB three's That's that's the worry.
Speaker 3: I feel like I'm piling on with my last two
guys because I feel like they've both gott a decent
amount of hate.
Speaker 2: Here, no, but I agree with these calls.
Speaker 3: Roderick, gadsman Man and dal Kink. These are the two
tight ends that I just don't like this year. Gadson,
twenty six point one percent of his production came in
two big games last week seven and eight. He had
a tight end one finish twenty five point nine points
and a sixteen point two for a tight end four finish.
He had one other tight end one finish in all
of the season, and it was Championship Week, but he
was tight end eleven. It was ten point seven points,
so not even you know, a difference maker for Championship Week.
He for sure helped you, but he wasn't a difference maker.
And he had seven finishes as tight end twenty five
or lower last year, five weekly finishes between thirteen and
twenty four, and only the three as a tight end one.
And I think Trey Harris is going to have an
expanded role. I think QJ might get better. We know
that McDaniel's obsessed with Brendan Thompson, who ran the crazy
fast forty times as well. So I just don't like
Gaston and Kincaid. My issues here are snap percentage right
four games over fifty percent snapshare in twenty twenty five. Now, look,
we all know he was dealing with the PCL injury, but.
Speaker 2: He's hurt every year though, yeah.
Speaker 3: In twenty twenty four. In twenty twenty four, he had
over fifty percent snaps in eight of the first ten weeks,
but after that only one game after an injury. And
in twenty twenty three he had over fifty percent snaps
in eighteen of nineteen games played. But Joe Brady took
over in twenty twenty four, so he's never had a
high snap share with Joe Brady. Joe Brady is back,
and the bill's out of Dj Moore and skylear Bell,
who I love. So I think there's fewer targets to
go to Kincaid. We know they love using Jackson haws
to block. We know Dawson Knox is not that far
behind in talent of Kinkaid. Maybe, by the way, maybe
Knox is far behind in talent, but you wouldn't know
it because Kinkaid is always banged up. So, and he
didn't have surgery on this PCL thing. He decided to
go through whatever the other treatment was he for his
PCL strain. Which is probably eventually gonna need some surgery.
So I'm just not gonna be stuck holding the bag
with Gadston. I'm not gonna be stuck holding ball the
bag with Dalton Kincaid either. I think I'm just out
for twenty twenty six for these guys.
Speaker 2: To your point about both of those guys, we always
talk about, you know, volume as king, and it gets
phrased and framed around running back volume and stuff like that,
but it's true for everything. And the reason I'm bringing
up for both of these guys is volume is king
volume of routes, Like you have to be on the
field running routes to earn targets and score Fantasy points.
And if you're not out there running routes, you can't
get targeted, you can't score Fantasy points. And I think
to your point, both of these guys are going to
be in three way committees with their teams. It just
depends on how what does that committee look like and
how much are they going to get used and stuff
like that. And like we're going to see a ton
anybody that still believes in Ronda Gatzt, and you're going
to see so much more Charlie Kohler and David and
Joku in your life than you want to. This year,
it is going to make it sick. It's going to
be just like Seattle was if yesteryear or the Rams
were last year, or even this year. It's like, you know,
I just don't the dalkon kin k thing. Dude. If
I if you could tell me he would be a
full time player and he'd stay healthy, I'd have him
ranked as a top three tight end. I have him.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Dallas Goddard still even.
Speaker 2: Give me great doublestitch like I finde boy John Johnson
probably still right Like there's there's players I'm taking over
these tight ends.
Speaker 3: So I'm not going to be in the bag with
those three guys. But that is everything. De bro. Please
plug everything that you're doing right now, my friend, and
thank you so much for coming on.
Speaker 2: True love you brother, truly truly appreciate the time. Anytime
we get a chance to talk ball. What's a blessing
in a great day, man. All the works at Fantasy pros,
all my stuff is like for the most part, is
all live in the draft kit right now. Uh So
my perfect draft article walks you through every single round
of the draft. I will give that a spit shine
over the next two weeks, probably at a few more players.
I think right now I've got over eighty players in
that as well as my players to avoid article, my
cheat sheets, live, all that stuff, and like I teased
at the top of this, my top two hundred will
be live and with the Perfect Draft article and the
top two hundred. My aim for both of these things
is I don't want people to have to walk into
their drafts with like one hundred freaking tabs open and
all so the kind of crap and stuff like that.
Use the tools of fantasy pros. Use the Perfect Draft
article or the Top two hundred. Use either one of those.
And I think that like that's literally the two to
three resources that you need to absolutely just crush people
in your leagues this year.
Speaker 3: Absolutely. And thank you so much again for coming on
and giving us the time and putting all these numbers together.
I know this is a lot of research for a
show like this.
Speaker 2: Oh this is easy. I was just picking apart crap
I've already done for the whole off season. Baby, this
is good. This is easy, easy street.
Speaker 3: I love easy work. Easy work. That's right. So my
rankings are available at in this League dot com. You
guys can check them out there. I'm updating them constantly,
but I will give it a fresh coat of paint
it probably after next weekend, and you can find me
on a lot of shows coming up over on Betting
Pros and FP I'm covering leading off this week. College
football is going to be returning to Fantasy Pros this
week as well with myself and Seth Wolcock for a
couple of shows. Dynasty is Hot and Heavy. I've got
three shows there this week as well, So lots and
lots of content coming out to follow me at bog
and Sports. And that is it for us. See you
guys next time. Think it easier