WEBVTT 1 00:00:01.000 --> 00:00:06.000 It's night with Dan Ray. I'm going easy Boston video. 2 00:00:06.839 --> 00:00:10.800 Tough night for Boston sports teams. Today, the stock market 3 00:00:10.880 --> 00:00:15.359 had a great day after four days of a huge drop. 4 00:00:16.120 --> 00:00:20.399 Stock market snapped back today based upon the decision by 5 00:00:20.440 --> 00:00:24.000 the President to authorize a ninety day pause in his 6 00:00:24.719 --> 00:00:33.759 reciprocal tariff plan. The all of the Wall Street, the 7 00:00:33.759 --> 00:00:36.280 the S and P five hundred up nine point five 8 00:00:36.359 --> 00:00:39.520 percent today, the Dow up seven point nine percent, the 9 00:00:39.640 --> 00:00:42.640 NASDA C up twelve point one percent. It has not 10 00:00:42.799 --> 00:00:46.799 made up the losses of the last week that started 11 00:00:47.240 --> 00:00:51.880 with the President's announcement last Wednesday afternoon. So with us 12 00:00:51.920 --> 00:00:54.719 to try to make some sense of this, as Jared Dillion, 13 00:00:57.920 --> 00:01:03.560 Jared is someone who knows this area much better than 14 00:01:03.640 --> 00:01:06.719 probably any guest I've had recently. So I'm delighted that 15 00:01:06.799 --> 00:01:10.480 Jared has has us joined us tonight. He is a 16 00:01:10.519 --> 00:01:13.719 graduate of the US Coast Guard Academy in nineteen ninety 17 00:01:13.760 --> 00:01:18.400 six BS in mathematics and computer science from the University 18 00:01:18.400 --> 00:01:21.159 of San Francisco. In two thousand and one, as a 19 00:01:21.200 --> 00:01:25.920 master's in Business Administration, Concentration and Finance. He earned an 20 00:01:26.079 --> 00:01:29.640 NBA Award for Highest Academic Average from the Savannah College 21 00:01:29.640 --> 00:01:31.719 of Art and Design in twenty twenty three with a 22 00:01:31.760 --> 00:01:36.640 Master of Fine Arts and Writing A He's accomplished in 23 00:01:36.680 --> 00:01:39.480 many ways. He's an author. His books include Street Freak, 24 00:01:40.000 --> 00:01:45.760 All the Evil of This World, A Passover One, No Worries, 25 00:01:46.000 --> 00:01:50.560 and Night Moves. He also is a Progressive House DJ 26 00:01:50.879 --> 00:01:54.799 and speaks frequently of mental health issues at financial Institution. 27 00:01:54.959 --> 00:01:59.480 Has spent time on Wall Street himself, and has appeared 28 00:01:59.719 --> 00:02:04.799 on Well Everything, MSNBC, Fox Business, Bloomberg, tv BNN, New 29 00:02:04.920 --> 00:02:10.120 York Times, LA Times Business Insiders. So, Jared Dillion, thank 30 00:02:10.159 --> 00:02:14.759 you very much for joining us tonight. We're we're looking 31 00:02:14.800 --> 00:02:17.680 forward to try to figure out what happened today. Did 32 00:02:17.680 --> 00:02:20.479 it all come down to the decision by the President 33 00:02:20.520 --> 00:02:26.759 to pause the implication, the implication, the implementation, I should say, 34 00:02:26.919 --> 00:02:28.879 these tariffs for ninety days. 35 00:02:29.879 --> 00:02:31.960 Yeah, I mean, well, first of all, thanks for having me. 36 00:02:32.719 --> 00:02:36.159 It's great to be talking to you. Yeah. I think 37 00:02:37.080 --> 00:02:40.879 the Trump team was getting a little bit concerned about 38 00:02:40.879 --> 00:02:44.879 the impact on the stock market, and there were some comments, 39 00:02:44.919 --> 00:02:47.520 one in particular by Jamie Diamond, who's the CEO of 40 00:02:47.599 --> 00:02:52.319 JP Morgan. Jamie Diamond said that the tariffs would cause 41 00:02:52.319 --> 00:02:55.360 a recession and they would cause corporate defaults, they would 42 00:02:55.360 --> 00:03:00.439 cause bankruptcies, and Jamie Diamond is is some what you 43 00:03:00.479 --> 00:03:02.800 want to listen to. And I think I think the 44 00:03:02.840 --> 00:03:07.520 combination of these things led to Trump saying something that 45 00:03:07.560 --> 00:03:10.159 would explicitly make the stock market go up. And even 46 00:03:10.240 --> 00:03:14.039 earlier in the day, he tweeted out, today is a 47 00:03:14.080 --> 00:03:17.400 great day to buy, and nobody really knew what he 48 00:03:17.439 --> 00:03:19.800 was talking about. And then three or four hours later 49 00:03:20.000 --> 00:03:24.319 he suspended the tariffs for ninety days on everything except 50 00:03:24.360 --> 00:03:27.479 for China. The tariffs in China are still in place. 51 00:03:29.000 --> 00:03:33.360 But no, this was this was an explicit attempt to 52 00:03:33.400 --> 00:03:37.319 make the stock market recover. It was also hurting him 53 00:03:37.319 --> 00:03:39.680 in the polls. You know he was it was it 54 00:03:39.719 --> 00:03:42.319 was it was becoming unpopular people who had seen their 55 00:03:42.360 --> 00:03:43.560 four oh one k's go down. 56 00:03:43.840 --> 00:03:48.560 So yeah, now you know, Donald Trump is a different 57 00:03:48.719 --> 00:03:51.879 sort of president. And I have looked at this and 58 00:03:52.039 --> 00:03:55.479 I'm not an expert, a Wall Street expert like you are. 59 00:03:55.680 --> 00:03:57.840 I don't have the experience you have, but I've looked 60 00:03:57.879 --> 00:04:02.199 at this as an incredible gam by the Trump administration 61 00:04:02.400 --> 00:04:06.479 and President Trump himself, meaning if this is successful, if 62 00:04:06.479 --> 00:04:09.479 he accomplishes what he has set out to accomplish. He 63 00:04:09.520 --> 00:04:13.800 becomes a transformational president and is then linked to people 64 00:04:13.840 --> 00:04:17.839 like Franklin Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan. Roosevelt obviously for dealing 65 00:04:17.879 --> 00:04:20.560 successfully with the depression of World War Two, et cetera, 66 00:04:21.040 --> 00:04:26.079 Reagan taking down the Communist empire. And if he if 67 00:04:26.120 --> 00:04:31.399 it doesn't work, he's he's now relegated to the dustbin 68 00:04:31.480 --> 00:04:35.360 of history, if you will, with Herbert Hoover, are you 69 00:04:35.519 --> 00:04:41.319 surprised that he is putting so many chips on this 70 00:04:41.480 --> 00:04:45.199 particular issue this early in his administration. 71 00:04:46.959 --> 00:04:49.279 Yeah, A whole wants to talk about here. So, I mean, 72 00:04:49.319 --> 00:04:52.600 Trump is a protectionist. He has been his whole life. 73 00:04:53.399 --> 00:04:57.040 He's been talking about tariffs for decades. He believes that 74 00:04:57.120 --> 00:05:01.439 he can bring manufacturing jobs back. Manufacturing jobs, by the way, 75 00:05:01.439 --> 00:05:04.240 have been going down for one hundred years, even you know, 76 00:05:04.319 --> 00:05:09.399 before during and after NAFTA another pre trade agreements. So 77 00:05:09.600 --> 00:05:11.240 you know a lot of these jobs are gone forever 78 00:05:11.279 --> 00:05:13.399 because of automation and stuff. So I don't really think 79 00:05:13.439 --> 00:05:16.600 we can bring manufacturing jobs back. But that's not really 80 00:05:16.600 --> 00:05:20.959 the point of what's going on. I don't think Trump 81 00:05:21.439 --> 00:05:26.480 ever really intended to put tariffs on every country in 82 00:05:26.480 --> 00:05:29.279 the world. I think this was a little bit of 83 00:05:29.279 --> 00:05:32.879 game theory on his part. I think his intent all 84 00:05:32.959 --> 00:05:37.000 along was to put tariffs on China. And it's funny 85 00:05:37.000 --> 00:05:40.319 that you mentioned Reagan because you know, like you said, 86 00:05:40.360 --> 00:05:43.600 Reagan defeated the Soviet Union and how did he do it? 87 00:05:44.439 --> 00:05:48.160 Because he got into an arms race of defense spending 88 00:05:48.920 --> 00:05:52.360 and basically ran up deficits to seven percent of GDP 89 00:05:52.680 --> 00:05:56.560 and outspent the Soviets and bankrupted the Soviet Union, and 90 00:05:56.560 --> 00:05:59.600 then the Berlin wallf fell, and he's got an airport 91 00:05:59.639 --> 00:06:06.319 named after So I think I think Trump is trying 92 00:06:06.399 --> 00:06:10.120 to do the same thing with China. China is more 93 00:06:10.160 --> 00:06:13.079 than an adversary. It's a communist country with one point 94 00:06:13.079 --> 00:06:16.920 four billion people. They really truly are our enemies. Shi 95 00:06:17.040 --> 00:06:20.319 Jingping is a very dangerous person. I think if he 96 00:06:20.399 --> 00:06:22.560 had the ability to do so, he would try to 97 00:06:22.639 --> 00:06:27.600 rule the entire planet. China is dangerous. So what I think, 98 00:06:27.759 --> 00:06:30.560 what I think Trump is trying to do is to 99 00:06:30.720 --> 00:06:35.879 drive the Chinese economy so far into recession or depression 100 00:06:36.560 --> 00:06:41.120 that they don't have the ability to spend on their military, 101 00:06:41.160 --> 00:06:44.480 and they become so weakened that they actually collapse. I 102 00:06:44.519 --> 00:06:46.120 think that ultimately is the goal. 103 00:06:47.040 --> 00:06:50.759 Well, the other problem there in terms of China is 104 00:06:52.000 --> 00:06:57.439 I've read that China is planning to move on Taiwan. 105 00:06:57.560 --> 00:07:00.600 They obviously have had military exercises over there, but to 106 00:07:00.680 --> 00:07:03.519 move on Taiwan, that little island off the coast of 107 00:07:03.600 --> 00:07:08.240 China sometime in twenty twenty six. The window that I've 108 00:07:08.240 --> 00:07:10.399 read is twenty twenty six to twenty twenty eight, which 109 00:07:10.439 --> 00:07:15.199 is a very dangerous period of time. And Taiwan, as 110 00:07:15.319 --> 00:07:20.040 I understand it, is the computer chip manufacturing capital of 111 00:07:20.079 --> 00:07:23.399 the world, which would be devastating if they were able 112 00:07:23.480 --> 00:07:27.519 to successfully take Taiwan. How is that a factor? 113 00:07:29.000 --> 00:07:31.240 For sure? It's a factor. I mean, look, I think 114 00:07:31.480 --> 00:07:34.319 if that was Chinas and ten I think they miscalculated 115 00:07:34.399 --> 00:07:38.600 because I think if they attacked Taiwan when Biden was president, 116 00:07:38.639 --> 00:07:42.680 there probably would have been no resistance whatsoever. If he 117 00:07:42.720 --> 00:07:44.800 attacks them while Trump is president, we're going to get 118 00:07:44.839 --> 00:07:48.920 into a hot war and they're going to lose. Sixty 119 00:07:48.959 --> 00:07:52.839 percent of the world's semiconductors come from Taiwan, and we've 120 00:07:52.839 --> 00:07:54.879 known this for a while. This was the whole point 121 00:07:54.879 --> 00:07:58.199 of the Chips Act that Biden signed. The Chips Act 122 00:07:58.600 --> 00:08:03.759 is designed to build semiconductor equipment factories in the US 123 00:08:04.279 --> 00:08:09.360 to reduce our reliance on Taiwan. The bill is really 124 00:08:09.360 --> 00:08:11.959 a complete disaster. It gives a lot of money to Intel, 125 00:08:12.000 --> 00:08:15.040 which is a failing company. There's all kinds of DEI 126 00:08:15.199 --> 00:08:20.319 stuff in it, so it hasn't reduced our dependence on 127 00:08:20.360 --> 00:08:21.240 Taiwan at all. 128 00:08:23.120 --> 00:08:25.959 There was a piece of legislation that I keep going 129 00:08:26.000 --> 00:08:28.920 back to that passed in nineteen ninety six. Bill Clinton 130 00:08:28.959 --> 00:08:31.000 was President of newking which was Speaker of the House, 131 00:08:31.040 --> 00:08:34.919 and there it was bipartisan and it basically moved a 132 00:08:34.960 --> 00:08:38.320 lot of our pharmaceutical manufacturing, and I think a good 133 00:08:38.360 --> 00:08:43.120 portion of chip manufacturing, to whatever extent ship manufacturing was 134 00:08:43.159 --> 00:08:46.600 in vogue at that time out of places like Puerto Rico, 135 00:08:46.679 --> 00:08:50.320 where we had easy access and no supply line problems 136 00:08:50.679 --> 00:08:54.799 over to Asia. How is it that our members of 137 00:08:54.879 --> 00:09:01.360 Congress can vote for pieces of legislation like that which 138 00:09:01.519 --> 00:09:04.200 clearly are not in the long term interest of the 139 00:09:04.320 --> 00:09:05.440 United States. 140 00:09:06.240 --> 00:09:09.159 Well, I think, you know, I think we should treat 141 00:09:09.879 --> 00:09:12.799 the leaders in nineteen ninety six a little more kindly. 142 00:09:13.000 --> 00:09:16.639 You know, China in nineteen ninety six was a very 143 00:09:16.679 --> 00:09:20.360 different country than it was today. It was emerging from communism, 144 00:09:20.399 --> 00:09:26.639 it was experimenting with capitalism. It was relatively free. It 145 00:09:26.679 --> 00:09:30.919 was after Tenement Square, So you know, China was an 146 00:09:30.960 --> 00:09:35.399 emerging economy, and you know, labor costs hadn't gone up 147 00:09:35.600 --> 00:09:37.840 very much at all. In fact, labor costs were very low. 148 00:09:38.279 --> 00:09:40.600 So people said, look like, you know, we can we 149 00:09:40.639 --> 00:09:44.679 can manufacture much much cheaper in China, and you know, 150 00:09:44.799 --> 00:09:47.360 have this stuff for a lot cheaper. And you know 151 00:09:47.399 --> 00:09:49.840 it made sense at the time, but you know, China 152 00:09:49.879 --> 00:09:52.279 has changed a lot, you know, even since two thousand 153 00:09:52.279 --> 00:09:52.559 and eight. 154 00:09:53.919 --> 00:09:57.519 I agree with you. My guest is Jared Dillion. He 155 00:09:57.720 --> 00:10:02.519 is a He has a resume that a lot of 156 00:10:02.559 --> 00:10:06.559 people would be very envious of. He is a graduate 157 00:10:06.679 --> 00:10:09.639 of the US Coast Guard Academy with a BS and 158 00:10:10.080 --> 00:10:14.480 math and computer science, master's in Business administration from the 159 00:10:14.559 --> 00:10:19.759 University of San Francisco, and he's been involved in finance. 160 00:10:20.440 --> 00:10:23.879 Is a he's a renaissance man in many respects. He's 161 00:10:23.919 --> 00:10:29.279 a writer, trader, musician, entrepreneur, and educator. And we're picking 162 00:10:29.320 --> 00:10:33.000 his brain tonight about what has happened today. I mean, 163 00:10:33.039 --> 00:10:36.639 in a period of a matter of two hours, we 164 00:10:36.679 --> 00:10:39.840 went from a nation I guess on the brink of 165 00:10:42.120 --> 00:10:46.360 plunging into a bear market and have come back now. 166 00:10:46.600 --> 00:10:49.120 I don't know what the future holds. No one is 167 00:10:49.159 --> 00:10:51.919 going to be able to predict that, But I'm really 168 00:10:52.000 --> 00:10:56.279 interested in Jared's analysis as to where we may go 169 00:10:56.360 --> 00:11:01.679 from here. I suspect, at a minimum, Jared, turbulence is 170 00:11:02.080 --> 00:11:04.720 going to ease. That's gonna be my question when we 171 00:11:04.759 --> 00:11:08.159 come back after this break, how much more turbulence. This 172 00:11:08.320 --> 00:11:12.200 was a very turbulent month or so, going back even 173 00:11:12.240 --> 00:11:14.840 to the beginning of March. Within the markets, it was 174 00:11:14.919 --> 00:11:17.519 not a good month in March. It sounded like a 175 00:11:17.559 --> 00:11:20.840 horrible month in April. Is this the end of it? 176 00:11:21.240 --> 00:11:24.720 Or are or it's going to come back, you know, 177 00:11:24.960 --> 00:11:27.759 ninety days or maybe seventy five days from now. If 178 00:11:27.759 --> 00:11:30.159 you'd like to join the conversation and talk to someone 179 00:11:30.600 --> 00:11:33.159 who knows this stuff cold six one, seven, two, five, 180 00:11:33.279 --> 00:11:36.279 four ten thirty six one seven, nine, three one ten thirty, 181 00:11:36.279 --> 00:11:37.799 we'll be right back on night Side. 182 00:11:38.679 --> 00:11:43.799 It's Night Side with Dan Ray on WA Boston's news radio. 183 00:11:44.519 --> 00:11:47.039 Jared, I know no one can predict the future here, 184 00:11:47.080 --> 00:11:52.120 and I'm even looking at futures tomorrow. The all the futures, well, 185 00:11:52.240 --> 00:11:56.720 nastac's off quite a bit. S and P futures are off. 186 00:11:56.799 --> 00:11:59.039 That was up a little bit, but it looks like 187 00:11:59.080 --> 00:12:02.120 it's going to be a day tomorrow. Do you think 188 00:12:02.240 --> 00:12:04.320 we're through the worst of the turbulence or could this 189 00:12:04.360 --> 00:12:07.039 snap back at us in the next uh, stay within 190 00:12:07.080 --> 00:12:07.679 the next month. 191 00:12:09.000 --> 00:12:10.519 I think we're through the worst of it. I think 192 00:12:10.519 --> 00:12:14.240 the lows are in. But typically the way the stock 193 00:12:14.279 --> 00:12:18.080 market behaves is it's it's very uncommon to have what 194 00:12:18.120 --> 00:12:21.000 you call a v bottom where stocks crash and then 195 00:12:21.039 --> 00:12:25.240 they rebound and they just go straight up. That's pretty rare. 196 00:12:25.399 --> 00:12:29.399 Usually what you have is a retest of the lows, 197 00:12:29.480 --> 00:12:34.480 or multiple retests. So I do think that you know, 198 00:12:34.519 --> 00:12:36.639 we were up eight or nine percent today. I think 199 00:12:37.960 --> 00:12:40.960 probably the next two or three days it's going to 200 00:12:41.000 --> 00:12:43.240 be a little choppy. We could give back half of that. 201 00:12:45.120 --> 00:12:47.639 But really the market is behaving a lot like it 202 00:12:47.840 --> 00:12:52.840 was actually after nine to eleven. You had in both cases, 203 00:12:52.919 --> 00:12:56.879 you had this exogenous shock in one case the terrorist attacks, 204 00:12:56.919 --> 00:12:59.799 in the other case the tariffs, and the market went 205 00:12:59.840 --> 00:13:03.679 down down, you know, twelve to fifteen percent, rebounded very 206 00:13:03.759 --> 00:13:07.360 quickly and almost got up to the highs and then 207 00:13:07.480 --> 00:13:10.240 consolidated for a period of three to six months, and 208 00:13:10.279 --> 00:13:13.679 then you know, you had a lot more downside in 209 00:13:13.759 --> 00:13:15.879 two thousand and two. You had a big bear market 210 00:13:15.879 --> 00:13:18.519 in two thousand and two. So that's kind of what 211 00:13:18.600 --> 00:13:20.519 I That's kind of how I think this is going 212 00:13:20.600 --> 00:13:23.360 to play out. If you ask me tomorrow, I could 213 00:13:23.360 --> 00:13:25.759 have a completely different opinion. But that's where I am 214 00:13:25.840 --> 00:13:26.279 right now. 215 00:13:26.879 --> 00:13:31.080 I can understand that how much of the factor. If 216 00:13:31.120 --> 00:13:33.879 you compare this to two thousand and one, we as 217 00:13:33.879 --> 00:13:38.399 a nation rallied. It was probably the most solidified we 218 00:13:38.399 --> 00:13:43.600 were as a nation in my memory, well, at least 219 00:13:43.600 --> 00:13:48.039 in the last forty years. We're not in that situation 220 00:13:48.159 --> 00:13:52.120 right now. We have some people who are just committed 221 00:13:52.159 --> 00:13:54.320 to Donald Trump no matter what. They would have watched 222 00:13:54.320 --> 00:13:56.600 the market go down as Lois had had to go 223 00:13:56.679 --> 00:13:58.679 and they would have stuck with Donald Trump. Not everyone. 224 00:13:59.799 --> 00:14:01.519 And then there are folks on the other side of 225 00:14:01.559 --> 00:14:04.440 the equation who look at this and say, this just 226 00:14:04.519 --> 00:14:07.600 proves this guy is way in over his head. Does 227 00:14:07.639 --> 00:14:12.879 the fact that we're so split politically make a really 228 00:14:12.919 --> 00:14:17.320 solid economic recovery less likely or is that irrelevant to 229 00:14:18.000 --> 00:14:18.840 the marketplace. 230 00:14:19.960 --> 00:14:22.480 I think it's kind of irrelevant. I mean, basically what 231 00:14:23.759 --> 00:14:26.399 team Trump is trying to do. In particular, Scott Besson. 232 00:14:27.080 --> 00:14:33.039 Scott Bessen is probably the most qualified Treasury Secretary ever 233 00:14:33.120 --> 00:14:37.840 to hold the seat. He was chief investment officer at Soros. 234 00:14:38.799 --> 00:14:42.879 He probably is one of the top five currency and 235 00:14:42.960 --> 00:14:48.080 bond traders in the world. He's brilliant. He's absolutely brilliant. 236 00:14:48.320 --> 00:14:51.639 And you know what you heard him say over the 237 00:14:51.720 --> 00:14:56.120 last couple of months was that the economy needed a detox. Okay, 238 00:14:56.639 --> 00:15:01.879 So during Biden, basically Biden front loaded all the pleasure. 239 00:15:02.279 --> 00:15:04.919 You know, we were coming out of the pandemic. He 240 00:15:05.000 --> 00:15:11.320 was doing stimulus and child childcare credits and free money, 241 00:15:11.639 --> 00:15:17.039 and we had zero percent interest rates, and we frontloaded 242 00:15:17.080 --> 00:15:19.600 all the pleasure. And what Besent is trying to do 243 00:15:20.360 --> 00:15:23.679 is to frontload all the pain, right, And what he 244 00:15:23.799 --> 00:15:28.039 wants to do is almost engineer recession in the beginning 245 00:15:28.039 --> 00:15:31.799 of Trump's terms, so that either at the midterms or 246 00:15:31.840 --> 00:15:35.279 in twenty twenty eight, we're coming out of the recession 247 00:15:35.440 --> 00:15:38.639 and we're booming by the time the election comes around. 248 00:15:39.000 --> 00:15:43.759 So this is very calculated, you know, there it is, 249 00:15:43.559 --> 00:15:46.200 it is. It is a bit machi Abelian but I 250 00:15:46.320 --> 00:15:49.960 truly believe that if we are going to have a downturn, 251 00:15:50.039 --> 00:15:52.600 they want to have it now and not in twenty 252 00:15:52.679 --> 00:15:53.279 twenty six. 253 00:15:53.559 --> 00:15:56.919 Similar to what Reagan did in eighty one and eighty two. 254 00:15:56.960 --> 00:16:03.600 Now he inherited a different economy than Trump inherited. It's 255 00:16:03.679 --> 00:16:06.360 kind of the idea of if you eat your peas 256 00:16:06.440 --> 00:16:08.080 and carrots, you can have dessert. 257 00:16:10.039 --> 00:16:12.039 Yeah, it's very similar. I mean, it was a little 258 00:16:12.039 --> 00:16:15.480 different with Reagan because that was more driven by the FED. 259 00:16:15.559 --> 00:16:19.480 That was driven by monetary policy. You know, Jimmy Carter 260 00:16:19.639 --> 00:16:24.679 replaced Arthur Burns with g. William Miller, and he replaced 261 00:16:25.120 --> 00:16:29.320 William Miller with Paul Volker. Volker ripped rates all the 262 00:16:29.320 --> 00:16:32.320 way to fourteen percent. And we had a very severe 263 00:16:32.360 --> 00:16:36.159 recession in the beginning of Reagan's first term. I mean 264 00:16:36.240 --> 00:16:40.639 it was incredibly severe. GDP was down six percent. But 265 00:16:40.759 --> 00:16:45.279 by nineteen eighty three eighty four, things were doing much better. 266 00:16:45.480 --> 00:16:49.279 This morning in America, remember, yep, that was that was 267 00:16:49.360 --> 00:16:52.720 That was the slogan. My guest, and as you can tell, 268 00:16:53.399 --> 00:16:56.279 he's somebody who has a lot of backgrounded this, Jared Dillion. 269 00:16:57.159 --> 00:17:00.320 We were talking about the decision today a reverse hustle, 270 00:17:00.360 --> 00:17:04.359 by the way, a rare reversal by President Trump. As 271 00:17:04.400 --> 00:17:07.880 of yesterday, he was saying, and his spokespeople were saying, 272 00:17:07.960 --> 00:17:11.920 no delays on the tariffs. The tariffs have been delayed 273 00:17:11.920 --> 00:17:15.319 now for ninety days except for China. I'm also told 274 00:17:15.359 --> 00:17:19.839 earlier tonight that the tariffs on automobiles are still in place. 275 00:17:20.160 --> 00:17:22.920 That was told to me by someone earlier tonight from 276 00:17:22.960 --> 00:17:26.720 the automotive industry. That kind of surprised me. Is that 277 00:17:26.839 --> 00:17:28.160 accurate what I was told? 278 00:17:29.000 --> 00:17:32.119 Actually, I can't. I can't confirm. Goody, I did not 279 00:17:32.240 --> 00:17:32.960 hear that, so. 280 00:17:33.000 --> 00:17:35.960 Okay, fair enough. Yeah, it was someone earlier this evening. 281 00:17:36.640 --> 00:17:41.359 We were talking. We were talking about the whole is 282 00:17:41.440 --> 00:17:43.480 used from US World and news report talking about the 283 00:17:43.519 --> 00:17:46.160 impact of tariffs on cars, and he was saying that 284 00:17:46.799 --> 00:17:50.880 they're going to be in place, and we're not removed today. 285 00:17:50.960 --> 00:17:54.200 But we'll leave that alone. The only lines that are open, folks, 286 00:17:54.240 --> 00:17:58.680 six ten thirty. Everything else is full up. We will 287 00:17:58.680 --> 00:18:01.880 get to phone callers, assuming Jared, you'll be willing to 288 00:18:01.880 --> 00:18:03.960 stay with us and take some calls from some listeners. 289 00:18:04.440 --> 00:18:06.240 Yeah, absolutely sounds great. 290 00:18:06.599 --> 00:18:10.039 Jared Dillion. We'll be able to give some information as 291 00:18:10.039 --> 00:18:13.000 to how you can follow Jared and get in touch 292 00:18:13.039 --> 00:18:18.279 with him if you're interested. He's somebody who is out there. 293 00:18:18.680 --> 00:18:22.839 I know that you have several publications that people might 294 00:18:22.880 --> 00:18:26.319 want to read, including books and websites, and we'll get 295 00:18:26.319 --> 00:18:28.440 to all of that. And you're the editor of something 296 00:18:28.480 --> 00:18:31.920 called The Daily Dirt NAP, a daily market newsletter for 297 00:18:32.000 --> 00:18:37.079 investment professionals, continuously published since two thousand and eight. That 298 00:18:37.279 --> 00:18:43.480 sounds like a very interesting piece of information on a 299 00:18:43.519 --> 00:18:47.000 daily basis. We'll be back with my guest Jared Dillion, 300 00:18:47.519 --> 00:18:49.519 and your phone calls right after this break up night 301 00:18:49.599 --> 00:18:54.960 Side with Dan Ray. 302 00:18:55.440 --> 00:18:58.160 On Boston's News Radio. 303 00:18:59.279 --> 00:19:04.240 My guest is Jared Dillion. An amazing resume, a wide 304 00:19:04.400 --> 00:19:10.400 variety of interests and professional activity. Wall Street, outside on 305 00:19:10.559 --> 00:19:13.920 Wall Street, outside of Wall Street. Graduate of the US 306 00:19:13.960 --> 00:19:20.079 Coast Guard Academy, BS and Math and Computer Sciences, from 307 00:19:20.119 --> 00:19:24.200 the University of San Francisco, Masters in Business Administration, Concentration 308 00:19:24.319 --> 00:19:26.759 and Finance, where he earned an NBA Award for the 309 00:19:26.799 --> 00:19:31.119 highest Academic average average. And from the Savannah College of 310 00:19:31.240 --> 00:19:34.079 Art and Design in twenty thirty three with a Master 311 00:19:34.119 --> 00:19:37.079 of Fine Arts and Writing. That's quite a resume, folks, 312 00:19:37.359 --> 00:19:40.799 Jared Dillion is our guest. Your phone calls are welcome, 313 00:19:40.960 --> 00:19:43.400 and I'm looking more for questions. Okay, let me go 314 00:19:43.480 --> 00:19:47.559 to George in Bridgewater. George, welcome you first this hour 315 00:19:47.640 --> 00:19:50.319 one Night Side with Jared Dillion. Go ahead, George. 316 00:19:50.640 --> 00:19:53.640 Oh thanks, thank you very much. Sain Jared, Jared, I 317 00:19:53.680 --> 00:19:56.079 have a couple of questions for you, you know. And 318 00:19:56.160 --> 00:19:58.519 the more I play in the sock market a little 319 00:19:58.519 --> 00:20:03.559 so I signed into Yahoo Finance for the sports and 320 00:20:04.240 --> 00:20:06.480 see how much sucks to do it. But I heard 321 00:20:06.480 --> 00:20:12.000 today that the ten year yield was up fourteenth points 322 00:20:12.440 --> 00:20:16.079 and the thirty year yield was up eight points, and 323 00:20:16.119 --> 00:20:19.680 they were talking about the use the term this could 324 00:20:19.759 --> 00:20:22.480 be a blow up in the capital market. 325 00:20:28.240 --> 00:20:32.000 Did we lose George there, Yes, I think so. 326 00:20:32.279 --> 00:20:34.960 But I kind of know where he's going and I 327 00:20:34.960 --> 00:20:36.039 can kind of comment on that. 328 00:20:36.160 --> 00:20:38.359 Yeah, Suregard, Yeah, we did lose. A matter of fact, 329 00:20:38.400 --> 00:20:41.359 we lost a couple of callers. So well, I hope 330 00:20:41.400 --> 00:20:43.640 we haven't got a problem with our phones coming back 331 00:20:43.680 --> 00:20:47.079 at us here. So let's uh, let's keep our fingers crossed. 332 00:20:47.599 --> 00:20:49.680 If you're on the line and you dropped off, all 333 00:20:50.000 --> 00:20:52.680 callback folks will get you on. We have had occasionally 334 00:20:53.319 --> 00:20:56.400 some technical difficulties here. So George, you stay there, we'll 335 00:20:56.440 --> 00:20:58.279 try to get an answer for you. Go right ahead, George, 336 00:20:58.559 --> 00:20:59.920 go right ahead, Jared, I'm. 337 00:20:59.759 --> 00:21:04.000 Sorry, yeah. So what's what? There's some really weird stuff 338 00:21:04.039 --> 00:21:07.079 has been happening in the markets. You know, for the 339 00:21:07.119 --> 00:21:12.400 most part, bonds are inversely correlated with stocks, so when 340 00:21:12.519 --> 00:21:15.839 stocks go down, bonds go up and interest rates go down. 341 00:21:16.440 --> 00:21:19.720 So what George was talking about is interest rates have 342 00:21:19.839 --> 00:21:21.799 gone up a lot in the last couple of days, 343 00:21:21.799 --> 00:21:25.160 which makes no sense at all. You would not expect 344 00:21:25.319 --> 00:21:29.119 interest rates to go up while the stock market is crashing. 345 00:21:29.519 --> 00:21:34.039 That never happens. So what people are speculating, and I 346 00:21:34.079 --> 00:21:37.960 actually agree with this. You know, China is the owner 347 00:21:38.240 --> 00:21:42.680 of eight hundred billion dollars in treasury bonds, and you know, 348 00:21:42.799 --> 00:21:46.240 we implement one hundred and twenty percent tariffs on China exclusively, 349 00:21:46.920 --> 00:21:49.440 and China says, well, forget you. We are going to 350 00:21:49.519 --> 00:21:51.839 start selling your treasury bonds. We're going to sell fifty 351 00:21:51.839 --> 00:21:57.319 billion and drive interest rates up, which is the exact 352 00:21:57.359 --> 00:21:59.880 opposite of what Scott Beston is trying to do best, 353 00:22:00.240 --> 00:22:01.599 trying to lower interest rates. 354 00:22:01.720 --> 00:22:04.519 That is what China and Japan were doing last night. 355 00:22:04.559 --> 00:22:06.799 If I'm not mistaken, they were, they were they were 356 00:22:06.880 --> 00:22:08.200 dumping treasury bonds. 357 00:22:08.559 --> 00:22:10.960 Yeah, I mean we don't know for sure, Like it's 358 00:22:11.680 --> 00:22:14.559 I mean, you can't you can't tell, but I mean 359 00:22:14.599 --> 00:22:18.200 the timing is so suspicious, like it really it almost 360 00:22:18.279 --> 00:22:20.799 has to be China that was doing it. 361 00:22:20.920 --> 00:22:24.720 So so explain to the audience, if you would, Jared 362 00:22:25.799 --> 00:22:30.319 by doing that, and China is an effect retaliating in 363 00:22:30.359 --> 00:22:33.960 a different way, what are they trying to accomplish by 364 00:22:34.480 --> 00:22:36.759 dumping treasury bonds? 365 00:22:37.519 --> 00:22:40.160 Well, I mean, really, what they're trying to do is 366 00:22:41.119 --> 00:22:45.359 cause a recession or exacerbator recession. You know, if interest 367 00:22:45.400 --> 00:22:48.720 rates go up, then mortgage rates go up, and car 368 00:22:48.759 --> 00:22:50.519 loan rates go up, and every interest rate in the 369 00:22:50.519 --> 00:22:53.759 country goes up, the cost of borrowing goes up, and 370 00:22:53.839 --> 00:23:00.279 which tightens tightens the economy and makes it difficult for 371 00:23:00.359 --> 00:23:04.799 consumers to borrow money. And that's bad, you know, that's 372 00:23:05.720 --> 00:23:08.079 that's you know, And China has you know, and if 373 00:23:08.119 --> 00:23:11.200 they sold fifty billion, you know, they still have another 374 00:23:11.240 --> 00:23:14.359 seven hundred and fifty billion they can continue to sell bonds. 375 00:23:14.880 --> 00:23:18.839 So what what can chairm and Powell do to offset 376 00:23:18.920 --> 00:23:22.440 that or would he have to stand aside and say 377 00:23:22.480 --> 00:23:26.400 that is a part of a political action, that is 378 00:23:26.440 --> 00:23:28.839 the chairman of the FED an interesting to get involved in. 379 00:23:29.319 --> 00:23:32.400 There's really there's nothing that the FED can do about 380 00:23:32.400 --> 00:23:37.079 this there, Yeah, there's nothing that they can do. The 381 00:23:37.119 --> 00:23:39.960 only thing I will say is is that you're seeing 382 00:23:40.759 --> 00:23:45.000 a pretty big recovery in the bond market. Overnight. Thirty 383 00:23:45.079 --> 00:23:49.440 year bond yields actually got to five percent. And you know, 384 00:23:49.480 --> 00:23:52.400 when yields get high enough, they start looking attractive to 385 00:23:52.440 --> 00:23:55.839 people and you'll see buyers come in. Uh. And that's 386 00:23:55.880 --> 00:23:57.160 actually what you're seeing tonight. 387 00:23:57.240 --> 00:23:57.400 You know. 388 00:23:57.400 --> 00:24:00.920 I'm sitting here at my desk and I have a 389 00:24:00.960 --> 00:24:03.960 couple of computer screens with futures all over them, and 390 00:24:04.039 --> 00:24:06.680 I'm sitting here looking at bond futures and they're up 391 00:24:08.039 --> 00:24:12.279 one in twelve thirty seconds over nine, which is a 392 00:24:12.319 --> 00:24:17.480 really big move. So percent right, yeah, yeah, okay, all. 393 00:24:17.440 --> 00:24:20.519 Right, George is back. George. I know we lost you there. 394 00:24:20.559 --> 00:24:22.839 I apologize for that. Did you hear most of what 395 00:24:22.960 --> 00:24:23.720 Jared had to say? 396 00:24:24.839 --> 00:24:28.359 Yeah? I sure did, And that was I said, I 397 00:24:28.400 --> 00:24:31.759 have two questions, and it's just China and Japan roll 398 00:24:31.880 --> 00:24:33.720 in US debt. 399 00:24:34.000 --> 00:24:34.200 Uh. 400 00:24:34.240 --> 00:24:38.200 You know, I know that China is secretly selling US debt. 401 00:24:38.440 --> 00:24:42.920