Speaker 1: It's night with Dan Ray. I'm going easy Boston video.
Speaker 2: Tough night for Boston sports teams. Today, the stock market
Speaker 2: had a great day after four days of a huge drop.
Speaker 2: Stock market snapped back today based upon the decision by
Speaker 2: the President to authorize a ninety day pause in his
Speaker 2: reciprocal tariff plan. The all of the Wall Street, the
Speaker 2: the S and P five hundred up nine point five
Speaker 2: percent today, the Dow up seven point nine percent, the
Speaker 2: NASDA C up twelve point one percent. It has not
Speaker 2: made up the losses of the last week that started
Speaker 2: with the President's announcement last Wednesday afternoon. So with us
Speaker 2: to try to make some sense of this, as Jared Dillion,
Speaker 2: Jared is someone who knows this area much better than
Speaker 2: probably any guest I've had recently. So I'm delighted that
Speaker 2: Jared has has us joined us tonight. He is a
Speaker 2: graduate of the US Coast Guard Academy in nineteen ninety
Speaker 2: six BS in mathematics and computer science from the University
Speaker 2: of San Francisco. In two thousand and one, as a
Speaker 2: master's in Business Administration, Concentration and Finance. He earned an
Speaker 2: NBA Award for Highest Academic Average from the Savannah College
Speaker 2: of Art and Design in twenty twenty three with a
Speaker 2: Master of Fine Arts and Writing A He's accomplished in
Speaker 2: many ways. He's an author. His books include Street Freak,
Speaker 2: All the Evil of This World, A Passover One, No Worries,
Speaker 2: and Night Moves. He also is a Progressive House DJ
Speaker 2: and speaks frequently of mental health issues at financial Institution.
Speaker 2: Has spent time on Wall Street himself, and has appeared
Speaker 2: on Well Everything, MSNBC, Fox Business, Bloomberg, tv BNN, New
Speaker 2: York Times, LA Times Business Insiders. So, Jared Dillion, thank
Speaker 2: you very much for joining us tonight. We're we're looking
Speaker 2: forward to try to figure out what happened today. Did
Speaker 2: it all come down to the decision by the President
Speaker 2: to pause the implication, the implication, the implementation, I should say,
Speaker 2: these tariffs for ninety days.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, well, first of all, thanks for having me.
Speaker 3: It's great to be talking to you. Yeah. I think
Speaker 3: the Trump team was getting a little bit concerned about
Speaker 3: the impact on the stock market, and there were some comments,
Speaker 3: one in particular by Jamie Diamond, who's the CEO of
Speaker 3: JP Morgan. Jamie Diamond said that the tariffs would cause
Speaker 3: a recession and they would cause corporate defaults, they would
Speaker 3: cause bankruptcies, and Jamie Diamond is is some what you
Speaker 3: want to listen to. And I think I think the
Speaker 3: combination of these things led to Trump saying something that
Speaker 3: would explicitly make the stock market go up. And even
Speaker 3: earlier in the day, he tweeted out, today is a
Speaker 3: great day to buy, and nobody really knew what he
Speaker 3: was talking about. And then three or four hours later
Speaker 3: he suspended the tariffs for ninety days on everything except
Speaker 3: for China. The tariffs in China are still in place.
Speaker 3: But no, this was this was an explicit attempt to
Speaker 3: make the stock market recover. It was also hurting him
Speaker 3: in the polls. You know he was it was it
Speaker 3: was it was becoming unpopular people who had seen their
Speaker 3: four oh one k's go down.
Speaker 2: So yeah, now you know, Donald Trump is a different
Speaker 2: sort of president. And I have looked at this and
Speaker 2: I'm not an expert, a Wall Street expert like you are.
Speaker 2: I don't have the experience you have, but I've looked
Speaker 2: at this as an incredible gam by the Trump administration
Speaker 2: and President Trump himself, meaning if this is successful, if
Speaker 2: he accomplishes what he has set out to accomplish. He
Speaker 2: becomes a transformational president and is then linked to people
Speaker 2: like Franklin Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan. Roosevelt obviously for dealing
Speaker 2: successfully with the depression of World War Two, et cetera,
Speaker 2: Reagan taking down the Communist empire. And if he if
Speaker 2: it doesn't work, he's he's now relegated to the dustbin
Speaker 2: of history, if you will, with Herbert Hoover, are you
Speaker 2: surprised that he is putting so many chips on this
Speaker 2: particular issue this early in his administration.
Speaker 3: Yeah, A whole wants to talk about here. So, I mean,
Speaker 3: Trump is a protectionist. He has been his whole life.
Speaker 3: He's been talking about tariffs for decades. He believes that
Speaker 3: he can bring manufacturing jobs back. Manufacturing jobs, by the way,
Speaker 3: have been going down for one hundred years, even you know,
Speaker 3: before during and after NAFTA another pre trade agreements. So
Speaker 3: you know a lot of these jobs are gone forever
Speaker 3: because of automation and stuff. So I don't really think
Speaker 3: we can bring manufacturing jobs back. But that's not really
Speaker 3: the point of what's going on. I don't think Trump
Speaker 3: ever really intended to put tariffs on every country in
Speaker 3: the world. I think this was a little bit of
Speaker 3: game theory on his part. I think his intent all
Speaker 3: along was to put tariffs on China. And it's funny
Speaker 3: that you mentioned Reagan because you know, like you said,
Speaker 3: Reagan defeated the Soviet Union and how did he do it?
Speaker 3: Because he got into an arms race of defense spending
Speaker 3: and basically ran up deficits to seven percent of GDP
Speaker 3: and outspent the Soviets and bankrupted the Soviet Union, and
Speaker 3: then the Berlin wallf fell, and he's got an airport
Speaker 3: named after So I think I think Trump is trying
Speaker 3: to do the same thing with China. China is more
Speaker 3: than an adversary. It's a communist country with one point
Speaker 3: four billion people. They really truly are our enemies. Shi
Speaker 3: Jingping is a very dangerous person. I think if he
Speaker 3: had the ability to do so, he would try to
Speaker 3: rule the entire planet. China is dangerous. So what I think,
Speaker 3: what I think Trump is trying to do is to
Speaker 3: drive the Chinese economy so far into recession or depression
Speaker 3: that they don't have the ability to spend on their military,
Speaker 3: and they become so weakened that they actually collapse. I
Speaker 3: think that ultimately is the goal.
Speaker 2: Well, the other problem there in terms of China is
Speaker 2: I've read that China is planning to move on Taiwan.
Speaker 2: They obviously have had military exercises over there, but to
Speaker 2: move on Taiwan, that little island off the coast of
Speaker 2: China sometime in twenty twenty six. The window that I've
Speaker 2: read is twenty twenty six to twenty twenty eight, which
Speaker 2: is a very dangerous period of time. And Taiwan, as
Speaker 2: I understand it, is the computer chip manufacturing capital of
Speaker 2: the world, which would be devastating if they were able
Speaker 2: to successfully take Taiwan. How is that a factor?
Speaker 3: For sure? It's a factor. I mean, look, I think
Speaker 3: if that was Chinas and ten I think they miscalculated
Speaker 3: because I think if they attacked Taiwan when Biden was president,
Speaker 3: there probably would have been no resistance whatsoever. If he
Speaker 3: attacks them while Trump is president, we're going to get
Speaker 3: into a hot war and they're going to lose. Sixty
Speaker 3: percent of the world's semiconductors come from Taiwan, and we've
Speaker 3: known this for a while. This was the whole point
Speaker 3: of the Chips Act that Biden signed. The Chips Act
Speaker 3: is designed to build semiconductor equipment factories in the US
Speaker 3: to reduce our reliance on Taiwan. The bill is really
Speaker 3: a complete disaster. It gives a lot of money to Intel,
Speaker 3: which is a failing company. There's all kinds of DEI
Speaker 3: stuff in it, so it hasn't reduced our dependence on
Speaker 3: Taiwan at all.
Speaker 2: There was a piece of legislation that I keep going
Speaker 2: back to that passed in nineteen ninety six. Bill Clinton
Speaker 2: was President of newking which was Speaker of the House,
Speaker 2: and there it was bipartisan and it basically moved a
Speaker 2: lot of our pharmaceutical manufacturing, and I think a good
Speaker 2: portion of chip manufacturing, to whatever extent ship manufacturing was
Speaker 2: in vogue at that time out of places like Puerto Rico,
Speaker 2: where we had easy access and no supply line problems
Speaker 2: over to Asia. How is it that our members of
Speaker 2: Congress can vote for pieces of legislation like that which
Speaker 2: clearly are not in the long term interest of the
Speaker 2: United States.
Speaker 3: Well, I think, you know, I think we should treat
Speaker 3: the leaders in nineteen ninety six a little more kindly.
Speaker 3: You know, China in nineteen ninety six was a very
Speaker 3: different country than it was today. It was emerging from communism,
Speaker 3: it was experimenting with capitalism. It was relatively free. It
Speaker 3: was after Tenement Square, So you know, China was an
Speaker 3: emerging economy, and you know, labor costs hadn't gone up
Speaker 3: very much at all. In fact, labor costs were very low.
Speaker 3: So people said, look like, you know, we can we
Speaker 3: can manufacture much much cheaper in China, and you know,
Speaker 3: have this stuff for a lot cheaper. And you know
Speaker 3: it made sense at the time, but you know, China
Speaker 3: has changed a lot, you know, even since two thousand
Speaker 3: and eight.
Speaker 2: I agree with you. My guest is Jared Dillion. He
Speaker 2: is a He has a resume that a lot of
Speaker 2: people would be very envious of. He is a graduate
Speaker 2: of the US Coast Guard Academy with a BS and
Speaker 2: math and computer science, master's in Business administration from the
Speaker 2: University of San Francisco, and he's been involved in finance.
Speaker 2: Is a he's a renaissance man in many respects. He's
Speaker 2: a writer, trader, musician, entrepreneur, and educator. And we're picking
Speaker 2: his brain tonight about what has happened today. I mean,
Speaker 2: in a period of a matter of two hours, we
Speaker 2: went from a nation I guess on the brink of
Speaker 2: plunging into a bear market and have come back now.
Speaker 2: I don't know what the future holds. No one is
Speaker 2: going to be able to predict that, But I'm really
Speaker 2: interested in Jared's analysis as to where we may go
Speaker 2: from here. I suspect, at a minimum, Jared, turbulence is
Speaker 2: going to ease. That's gonna be my question when we
Speaker 2: come back after this break, how much more turbulence. This
Speaker 2: was a very turbulent month or so, going back even
Speaker 2: to the beginning of March. Within the markets, it was
Speaker 2: not a good month in March. It sounded like a
Speaker 2: horrible month in April. Is this the end of it?
Speaker 2: Or are or it's going to come back, you know,
Speaker 2: ninety days or maybe seventy five days from now. If
Speaker 2: you'd like to join the conversation and talk to someone
Speaker 2: who knows this stuff cold six one, seven, two, five,
Speaker 2: four ten thirty six one seven, nine, three one ten thirty,
Speaker 2: we'll be right back on night Side.
Speaker 1: It's Night Side with Dan Ray on WA Boston's news radio.
Speaker 2: Jared, I know no one can predict the future here,
Speaker 2: and I'm even looking at futures tomorrow. The all the futures, well,
Speaker 2: nastac's off quite a bit. S and P futures are off.
Speaker 2: That was up a little bit, but it looks like
Speaker 2: it's going to be a day tomorrow. Do you think
Speaker 2: we're through the worst of the turbulence or could this
Speaker 2: snap back at us in the next uh, stay within
Speaker 2: the next month.
Speaker 3: I think we're through the worst of it. I think
Speaker 3: the lows are in. But typically the way the stock
Speaker 3: market behaves is it's it's very uncommon to have what
Speaker 3: you call a v bottom where stocks crash and then
Speaker 3: they rebound and they just go straight up. That's pretty rare.
Speaker 3: Usually what you have is a retest of the lows,
Speaker 3: or multiple retests. So I do think that you know,
Speaker 3: we were up eight or nine percent today. I think
Speaker 3: probably the next two or three days it's going to
Speaker 3: be a little choppy. We could give back half of that.
Speaker 3: But really the market is behaving a lot like it
Speaker 3: was actually after nine to eleven. You had in both cases,
Speaker 3: you had this exogenous shock in one case the terrorist attacks,
Speaker 3: in the other case the tariffs, and the market went
Speaker 3: down down, you know, twelve to fifteen percent, rebounded very
Speaker 3: quickly and almost got up to the highs and then
Speaker 3: consolidated for a period of three to six months, and
Speaker 3: then you know, you had a lot more downside in
Speaker 3: two thousand and two. You had a big bear market
Speaker 3: in two thousand and two. So that's kind of what
Speaker 3: I That's kind of how I think this is going
Speaker 3: to play out. If you ask me tomorrow, I could
Speaker 3: have a completely different opinion. But that's where I am
Speaker 3: right now.
Speaker 2: I can understand that how much of the factor. If
Speaker 2: you compare this to two thousand and one, we as
Speaker 2: a nation rallied. It was probably the most solidified we
Speaker 2: were as a nation in my memory, well, at least
Speaker 2: in the last forty years. We're not in that situation
Speaker 2: right now. We have some people who are just committed
Speaker 2: to Donald Trump no matter what. They would have watched
Speaker 2: the market go down as Lois had had to go
Speaker 2: and they would have stuck with Donald Trump. Not everyone.
Speaker 2: And then there are folks on the other side of
Speaker 2: the equation who look at this and say, this just
Speaker 2: proves this guy is way in over his head. Does
Speaker 2: the fact that we're so split politically make a really
Speaker 2: solid economic recovery less likely or is that irrelevant to
Speaker 2: the marketplace.
Speaker 3: I think it's kind of irrelevant. I mean, basically what
Speaker 3: team Trump is trying to do. In particular, Scott Besson.
Speaker 3: Scott Bessen is probably the most qualified Treasury Secretary ever
Speaker 3: to hold the seat. He was chief investment officer at Soros.
Speaker 3: He probably is one of the top five currency and
Speaker 3: bond traders in the world. He's brilliant. He's absolutely brilliant.
Speaker 3: And you know what you heard him say over the
Speaker 3: last couple of months was that the economy needed a detox. Okay,
Speaker 3: So during Biden, basically Biden front loaded all the pleasure.
Speaker 3: You know, we were coming out of the pandemic. He
Speaker 3: was doing stimulus and child childcare credits and free money,
Speaker 3: and we had zero percent interest rates, and we frontloaded
Speaker 3: all the pleasure. And what Besent is trying to do
Speaker 3: is to frontload all the pain, right, And what he
Speaker 3: wants to do is almost engineer recession in the beginning
Speaker 3: of Trump's terms, so that either at the midterms or
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty eight, we're coming out of the recession
Speaker 3: and we're booming by the time the election comes around.
Speaker 3: So this is very calculated, you know, there it is,
Speaker 3: it is. It is a bit machi Abelian but I
Speaker 3: truly believe that if we are going to have a downturn,
Speaker 3: they want to have it now and not in twenty
Speaker 3: twenty six.
Speaker 2: Similar to what Reagan did in eighty one and eighty two.
Speaker 2: Now he inherited a different economy than Trump inherited. It's
Speaker 2: kind of the idea of if you eat your peas
Speaker 2: and carrots, you can have dessert.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's very similar. I mean, it was a little
Speaker 3: different with Reagan because that was more driven by the FED.
Speaker 3: That was driven by monetary policy. You know, Jimmy Carter
Speaker 3: replaced Arthur Burns with g. William Miller, and he replaced
Speaker 3: William Miller with Paul Volker. Volker ripped rates all the
Speaker 3: way to fourteen percent. And we had a very severe
Speaker 3: recession in the beginning of Reagan's first term. I mean
Speaker 3: it was incredibly severe. GDP was down six percent. But
Speaker 3: by nineteen eighty three eighty four, things were doing much better.
Speaker 2: This morning in America, remember, yep, that was that was
Speaker 2: That was the slogan. My guest, and as you can tell,
Speaker 2: he's somebody who has a lot of backgrounded this, Jared Dillion.
Speaker 2: We were talking about the decision today a reverse hustle,
Speaker 2: by the way, a rare reversal by President Trump. As
Speaker 2: of yesterday, he was saying, and his spokespeople were saying,
Speaker 2: no delays on the tariffs. The tariffs have been delayed
Speaker 2: now for ninety days except for China. I'm also told
Speaker 2: earlier tonight that the tariffs on automobiles are still in place.
Speaker 2: That was told to me by someone earlier tonight from
Speaker 2: the automotive industry. That kind of surprised me. Is that
Speaker 2: accurate what I was told?
Speaker 3: Actually, I can't. I can't confirm. Goody, I did not
Speaker 3: hear that, so.
Speaker 2: Okay, fair enough. Yeah, it was someone earlier this evening.
Speaker 2: We were talking. We were talking about the whole is
Speaker 2: used from US World and news report talking about the
Speaker 2: impact of tariffs on cars, and he was saying that
Speaker 2: they're going to be in place, and we're not removed today.
Speaker 2: But we'll leave that alone. The only lines that are open, folks,
Speaker 2: six ten thirty. Everything else is full up. We will
Speaker 2: get to phone callers, assuming Jared, you'll be willing to
Speaker 2: stay with us and take some calls from some listeners.
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely sounds great.
Speaker 2: Jared Dillion. We'll be able to give some information as
Speaker 2: to how you can follow Jared and get in touch
Speaker 2: with him if you're interested. He's somebody who is out there.
Speaker 2: I know that you have several publications that people might
Speaker 2: want to read, including books and websites, and we'll get
Speaker 2: to all of that. And you're the editor of something
Speaker 2: called The Daily Dirt NAP, a daily market newsletter for
Speaker 2: investment professionals, continuously published since two thousand and eight. That
Speaker 2: sounds like a very interesting piece of information on a
Speaker 2: daily basis. We'll be back with my guest Jared Dillion,
Speaker 2: and your phone calls right after this break up night
Speaker 2: Side with Dan Ray.
Speaker 1: On Boston's News Radio.
Speaker 2: My guest is Jared Dillion. An amazing resume, a wide
Speaker 2: variety of interests and professional activity. Wall Street, outside on
Speaker 2: Wall Street, outside of Wall Street. Graduate of the US
Speaker 2: Coast Guard Academy, BS and Math and Computer Sciences, from
Speaker 2: the University of San Francisco, Masters in Business Administration, Concentration
Speaker 2: and Finance, where he earned an NBA Award for the
Speaker 2: highest Academic average average. And from the Savannah College of
Speaker 2: Art and Design in twenty thirty three with a Master
Speaker 2: of Fine Arts and Writing. That's quite a resume, folks,
Speaker 2: Jared Dillion is our guest. Your phone calls are welcome,
Speaker 2: and I'm looking more for questions. Okay, let me go
Speaker 2: to George in Bridgewater. George, welcome you first this hour
Speaker 2: one Night Side with Jared Dillion. Go ahead, George.
Speaker 4: Oh thanks, thank you very much. Sain Jared, Jared, I
Speaker 4: have a couple of questions for you, you know. And
Speaker 4: the more I play in the sock market a little
Speaker 4: so I signed into Yahoo Finance for the sports and
Speaker 4: see how much sucks to do it. But I heard
Speaker 4: today that the ten year yield was up fourteenth points
Speaker 4: and the thirty year yield was up eight points, and
Speaker 4: they were talking about the use the term this could
Speaker 4: be a blow up in the capital market.
Speaker 2: Did we lose George there, Yes, I think so.
Speaker 3: But I kind of know where he's going and I
Speaker 3: can kind of comment on that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Suregard, Yeah, we did lose. A matter of fact,
Speaker 2: we lost a couple of callers. So well, I hope
Speaker 2: we haven't got a problem with our phones coming back
Speaker 2: at us here. So let's uh, let's keep our fingers crossed.
Speaker 2: If you're on the line and you dropped off, all
Speaker 2: callback folks will get you on. We have had occasionally
Speaker 2: some technical difficulties here. So George, you stay there, we'll
Speaker 2: try to get an answer for you. Go right ahead, George,
Speaker 2: go right ahead, Jared, I'm.
Speaker 3: Sorry, yeah. So what's what? There's some really weird stuff
Speaker 3: has been happening in the markets. You know, for the
Speaker 3: most part, bonds are inversely correlated with stocks, so when
Speaker 3: stocks go down, bonds go up and interest rates go down.
Speaker 3: So what George was talking about is interest rates have
Speaker 3: gone up a lot in the last couple of days,
Speaker 3: which makes no sense at all. You would not expect
Speaker 3: interest rates to go up while the stock market is crashing.
Speaker 3: That never happens. So what people are speculating, and I
Speaker 3: actually agree with this. You know, China is the owner
Speaker 3: of eight hundred billion dollars in treasury bonds, and you know,
Speaker 3: we implement one hundred and twenty percent tariffs on China exclusively,
Speaker 3: and China says, well, forget you. We are going to
Speaker 3: start selling your treasury bonds. We're going to sell fifty
Speaker 3: billion and drive interest rates up, which is the exact
Speaker 3: opposite of what Scott Beston is trying to do best,
Speaker 3: trying to lower interest rates.
Speaker 2: That is what China and Japan were doing last night.
Speaker 2: If I'm not mistaken, they were, they were they were
Speaker 2: dumping treasury bonds.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean we don't know for sure, Like it's
Speaker 3: I mean, you can't you can't tell, but I mean
Speaker 3: the timing is so suspicious, like it really it almost
Speaker 3: has to be China that was doing it.
Speaker 2: So so explain to the audience, if you would, Jared
Speaker 2: by doing that, and China is an effect retaliating in
Speaker 2: a different way, what are they trying to accomplish by
Speaker 2: dumping treasury bonds?
Speaker 3: Well, I mean, really, what they're trying to do is
Speaker 3: cause a recession or exacerbator recession. You know, if interest
Speaker 3: rates go up, then mortgage rates go up, and car
Speaker 3: loan rates go up, and every interest rate in the
Speaker 3: country goes up, the cost of borrowing goes up, and
Speaker 3: which tightens tightens the economy and makes it difficult for
Speaker 3: consumers to borrow money. And that's bad, you know, that's
Speaker 3: that's you know, And China has you know, and if
Speaker 3: they sold fifty billion, you know, they still have another
Speaker 3: seven hundred and fifty billion they can continue to sell bonds.
Speaker 2: So what what can chairm and Powell do to offset
Speaker 2: that or would he have to stand aside and say
Speaker 2: that is a part of a political action, that is
Speaker 2: the chairman of the FED an interesting to get involved in.
Speaker 3: There's really there's nothing that the FED can do about
Speaker 3: this there, Yeah, there's nothing that they can do. The
Speaker 3: only thing I will say is is that you're seeing
Speaker 3: a pretty big recovery in the bond market. Overnight. Thirty
Speaker 3: year bond yields actually got to five percent. And you know,
Speaker 3: when yields get high enough, they start looking attractive to
Speaker 3: people and you'll see buyers come in. Uh. And that's
Speaker 3: actually what you're seeing tonight.
Speaker 4: You know.
Speaker 3: I'm sitting here at my desk and I have a
Speaker 3: couple of computer screens with futures all over them, and
Speaker 3: I'm sitting here looking at bond futures and they're up
Speaker 3: one in twelve thirty seconds over nine, which is a
Speaker 3: really big move. So percent right, yeah, yeah, okay, all.
Speaker 2: Right, George is back. George. I know we lost you there.
Speaker 2: I apologize for that. Did you hear most of what
Speaker 2: Jared had to say?
Speaker 4: Yeah? I sure did, And that was I said, I
Speaker 4: have two questions, and it's just China and Japan roll
Speaker 4: in US debt.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 4: You know, I know that China is secretly selling US debt.
Speaker 4: Japan sells sixty two billion in the third quarter of
Speaker 4: twenty twenty twenty four. If these countries boy caught US
Speaker 4: deaths TOWUS the US Treasury treasury to offer higher yields,
Speaker 4: wouldn't it, Jarret?
Speaker 2: Uh?
Speaker 3: Yeah? So what what's what's going to happen is is that,
Speaker 3: you know, the prevailing market interest rate is going to
Speaker 3: go up. We actually have a thirty year bond auction tomorrow.
Speaker 3: We're going to auction off about thirty billion and thirty
Speaker 3: year bonds which are going to be at a higher
Speaker 3: interest rate than if China hadn't done that. So what
Speaker 3: they've effectively done is raise borrowing costs for the US
Speaker 3: government and interest expense.
Speaker 4: Oh okay, yeah that worries me, especially John. I'm not
Speaker 4: sure about your pen, but I mean, I really got
Speaker 4: a lot. You've been on the Dan Ray shield tonight.
Speaker 3: Thank you very much, Yre, Thank you appreciate it.
Speaker 2: Thanks Jeorge, you Dan appreciate you.
Speaker 3: Come.
Speaker 2: Let's go to Frank and Burlington. Frank you next on nights.
Speaker 2: I grow it ahead.
Speaker 5: Hey, how you doing, guys.
Speaker 2: We're doing great? Say ahead to Jared Dillion and what's
Speaker 2: your question of comment?
Speaker 4: Hi?
Speaker 5: So my question is, so stocks we're trading at nineteen
Speaker 5: times forward earnings at the low when it was at
Speaker 5: thirty six to three on the Dow, and it was
Speaker 5: trading sixteen point eight forward earnings at the high in
Speaker 5: twenty nineteen. Stocks are wildly overvalued as it is, they
Speaker 5: were looking for a reason to pull back. I don't
Speaker 5: think Donald Trump should be making policy based on what
Speaker 5: the stock market is doing. So my question is what
Speaker 5: is the purpose? I disagree with a lot of what
Speaker 5: he's doing, but I'd rather him follow through on it
Speaker 5: than basically go halfway and then pull back and then
Speaker 5: go back. It's the lack of clarity that's roiling markets
Speaker 5: and that's roiling the economy. So my question is is
Speaker 5: he looking to make tariffs a source of primary revenue
Speaker 5: and bring income taxes down and basically collect revenue off
Speaker 5: of tariffs, or is he looking to bring manufacturing back
Speaker 5: or both. Whether that works or not is not really
Speaker 5: relevant to my question. I'm just trying to figure out
Speaker 5: what he's doing and what the markets. I mean, Marcus
Speaker 5: go off, Marcus go down. If you don't like it,
Speaker 5: don't invest but you shouldn't be making policy based on
Speaker 5: the markets. Fifty six percent of what companies have raised
Speaker 5: since twenty six have gone to buybacks, five has gone
Speaker 5: to R and D, so the markets are wildly inflated.
Speaker 5: I don't worry about that. I just want to know
Speaker 5: what's the purpose of what he's doing.
Speaker 2: Okay. One of the purpose that I think some people
Speaker 2: are speculating is that he with the tariffs, he's hoping
Speaker 2: to bring the national debt down from thirty seven trillion dollars.
Speaker 2: But that's a whole bunch of questions there for you, Jared,
Speaker 2: so blen't you untangle that with Those are great.
Speaker 3: Questions, Yeah, for sure. So first of all, you know
Speaker 3: Trump intervening in the markets today. Yes, stocks are still overvalued,
Speaker 3: and yes nobody should feel sorry for hedge fund managers
Speaker 3: who are losing money. But you know, the market was
Speaker 3: down about twenty percent. If it had gone down another
Speaker 3: ten percent, if it was down about thirty percent, then
Speaker 3: you really have financial stability risks.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 3: That's when things start to blow up. That's when banks fail,
Speaker 3: that's when asset managers fail, that's when liquidity DIDs. So
Speaker 3: even though stocks are overvalued. I mean, we really have
Speaker 3: an interest in keeping financial market stability. So I think
Speaker 3: that was you know, I think Bessett was in his
Speaker 3: ear and said, look like it's getting pretty ugly out there,
Speaker 3: like we have to do something or it's going to
Speaker 3: get worse.
Speaker 5: Go ahead, Frank oh so so yeah, I mean the
Speaker 5: financial liquidity in terms of stability of the overall financial
Speaker 5: sector being at risk. I don't think that's really what
Speaker 5: it was. I think it was more just reacting to
Speaker 5: the four oh one ks, and I think he stated that, oh,
Speaker 5: people were getting a little scared. I mean, there's other
Speaker 5: ways to offset what you were talking about, But I mean,
Speaker 5: I don't know if we were at that point. I
Speaker 5: don't think this is a two thousand and eight where
Speaker 5: fundamentally what's happening on Main Street drove what's happening on
Speaker 5: Wall Street. I don't think it works in the verse necessarily.
Speaker 5: So I think this was more just because of people's
Speaker 5: four oh one kids, which if you're not retiring in
Speaker 5: the next five ten years, I don't think you should
Speaker 5: really worry about it anyway, and if you are, you
Speaker 5: should really be rebalanced into a safer, more stable funds.
Speaker 5: So I don't think we were at that point. I
Speaker 5: think the FED has a lot of tools they don't
Speaker 5: want to deploy, and I don't think they should at
Speaker 5: this point. I think they should just lay back and
Speaker 5: see how things go. But I think the FED is
Speaker 5: there if we need them if things get really bad.
Speaker 5: But I just think he should follow through on his
Speaker 5: policies and basically see it through. I don't think he
Speaker 5: should react based on markets, which I don't know if
Speaker 5: we're doing. I don't really think he was based on
Speaker 5: financial stability.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I don't know if either of you heard the
Speaker 2: comments the President made this afternoon, but at some point,
Speaker 2: and I don't know if either of you picked up
Speaker 2: on this, but he almost sort of like went into
Speaker 2: sort of a golf analogy, and he said a lot
Speaker 2: of people were getting a little yippie, and the yips
Speaker 2: is a golf term for yeah, for folks who are
Speaker 2: a little older and maybe they're they're hunting, they get
Speaker 2: a little nervous and putting and all of that. And
Speaker 2: I don't know did either of you pick that up.
Speaker 2: It was like it was somehow it was like his
Speaker 2: mind was on golf as opposed.
Speaker 3: To Chuck Chuck novel Yankees, different.
Speaker 2: Different thing. He could couldn't go from second base. Yeah,
Speaker 2: but the Yips were associated with call but yeah, that's it. Yeah,
Speaker 2: that's another good example too. And Knoblock wasn't the only
Speaker 2: one there's been. There's been a few pictures. Who have
Speaker 2: they had what was called Steve blast disease, you know,
Speaker 2: couldn't couldn't get the ball over the plate a picture
Speaker 2: for the Pirates many years ago. Hey, Frank, great questions.
Speaker 2: I'm so impressed by my calls, as I often am.
Speaker 2: Thanks Frank. We'll see what happens. Where do you think
Speaker 2: it's going to end up from? Thank you, Frank?
Speaker 5: Well, so, I think see so. I think that it
Speaker 5: depends on who's who he's listening to. If he's listening
Speaker 5: to Peter Navarro, who's a die hard. Uh, basically, I'm
Speaker 5: not a free trader. Free trade has ruined everything. Naw
Speaker 5: so was the worst thing ever. And I think that
Speaker 5: this is really just a pause. And I don't think
Speaker 5: I don't think he can negotiate seventy five different deals
Speaker 5: with seventy five different countries. I mean, that's violating most
Speaker 5: Favored Nation status anyway, in terms of the wto but
Speaker 5: I mean, we're pretty much passed international law at this point.
Speaker 5: But I mean, I think he's gonna follow through. I
Speaker 5: think he's gonna follow through, and I think he's gonna
Speaker 5: I think he's trying to bring manufacturing back. I think
Speaker 5: he's trying to reorder the economy. Whether that's possible or
Speaker 5: not is another story. And I think he's trying to
Speaker 5: make it a source of revenue. So I think he's
Speaker 5: gonna see it through. I don't think he's gonna backtrack completely.
Speaker 2: All right, Thank you, Frank, big big step back today,
Speaker 2: though nonetheless kind of surprised me. Thanks Frank, appreciate it.
Speaker 2: I guess is Jared Dillion. He is talking about the
Speaker 2: decision by the president today to delay the imposition of
Speaker 2: the terrorists by ninety days. Obviously was good for the market.
Speaker 2: The market today had a huge jump. If you'd like
Speaker 2: to comment or ask a question of a gentleman who
Speaker 2: has knows this stuff inside and out. Six one seven, two, five,
Speaker 2: four ten thirty six one seven, nine, three, one ten thirty.
Speaker 2: We may have had a little bit of a yips
Speaker 2: in our phone system here, Rob. I think so anybody
Speaker 2: who was on and got dropped off feel free to
Speaker 2: jump on back. We're gonna hold Jared in just until
Speaker 2: eleven o'clock and let him enjoy the rest of his evening. Uh.
Speaker 2: I am really appreciative of the time he spent and
Speaker 2: the explanations that he has provided. This has been a
Speaker 2: really good hour. We'll be and we'll continue to be
Speaker 2: right after this break.
Speaker 1: You're on Night Side with Dan Ray on WBZ, Boston's
Speaker 1: news radio.
Speaker 2: My guest is Jared Dillion, writer, traded musician, entrepreneur, and educator.
Speaker 2: So he said, a true renaissance man. Real quickly Jared
Speaker 2: with the response. Today it was a huge day in
Speaker 2: the market. I think it. It was reported that the
Speaker 2: Nasdaq had its biggest increase in twenty five years. I mean,
Speaker 2: it's an amazing uh turnaround. Whether it's a blip or
Speaker 2: something more in the direction, I'm assuming that the rest
Speaker 2: of this week has to be quieter than today. I
Speaker 2: would hope. Do you see any way that the market
Speaker 2: between now and the weekend is going to continue this?
Speaker 2: I don't think it continued the pace going up or
Speaker 2: reverse its up. There has to be a moment where
Speaker 2: everybody takes a breath through. Am I reading it wrongly?
Speaker 4: No.
Speaker 3: So have you heard of the VIX, the volatility index?
Speaker 2: Yes, okay, pretty much. Ye.
Speaker 3: So basically, what the VIX is, it's a it's a
Speaker 3: measure of option prices and it's a measure of volatility
Speaker 3: in the market. The VIX was above fifty this morning. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 3: it was close to sixty, and now I think it's
Speaker 3: down about thirty or high twenties or something like that.
Speaker 3: So what the VIX is telling you is that traders
Speaker 3: are anticipating less volatility. The vics absolutely got smashed today.
Speaker 3: You know, option prices came way down. I actually was
Speaker 3: trading that myself. So yeah, it's I think I think
Speaker 3: the worst is behind us. It's still going to be
Speaker 3: valdol Uh. It's it's going to be nothing like you know,
Speaker 3: the quiet times that we experienced in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 3: But it'll be quieter now.
Speaker 2: How can folks follow you again? You're the editor of
Speaker 2: the Daily Dirt napp. Is this something that is put
Speaker 2: out and is available or is this all subscription based?
Speaker 2: I know that you have some some recent books out.
Speaker 2: I suspect a lot of people would like to at
Speaker 2: least keep in touch with you, and well, we will
Speaker 2: keep in touch with you. Is the Daily Dirt NP
Speaker 2: available or is that? Is that subscriber based?
Speaker 3: It's subscriber based. So I have a number of publications
Speaker 3: at a website called Jareddillionmoney dot com. Okay, So at
Speaker 3: Jaredillion Money dot com there is the Daily Dirt and app.
Speaker 3: There's a few other newsletters. We actually have educational courses.
Speaker 3: We have a Bond masterclass, which teaches you about how
Speaker 3: bonds work. We literally just came out with an options
Speaker 3: masterclass last week. So lots of stuff at jareddillionmoney dot com.
Speaker 3: You should check it out.
Speaker 2: Okay, So Jared J A R. E. D. Dillion D
Speaker 2: I L L I A N Money dot com. And
Speaker 2: some of it is subscription, but some of it is
Speaker 2: available for whoever wants to go on there. Uh. And
Speaker 2: I gotta tell you that my audience has some pretty
Speaker 2: good questions. We've we've been dealing with this now for
Speaker 2: five nights in a row, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday and tonight.
Speaker 2: Very different tone tonight for certain, much more relaxed and positive.
Speaker 2: I mean last night it was getting really tough there.
Speaker 2: Quick final question for me, as you look at the
Speaker 2: people that President Trump has surrounded himself with in terms
Speaker 2: of the financial team, the economy team. Give me your
Speaker 2: analysis of Peter Navarro. I am not impressed. And I
Speaker 2: know that Navarro is very loyal. Was one of these
Speaker 2: guys that went to jail, smart guy, grew up in
Speaker 2: this area. Is he at this point you think going
Speaker 2: to be pushed aside? He's the trade advisor.
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, So Navarrow I think is going to lose
Speaker 3: influence over time. Scott Bessen is is, uh, you know,
Speaker 3: orders of magnitude smarter than Nabarrow. So I think I
Speaker 3: think Navarrow isn't gonna last six months.
Speaker 2: But you know, Navarro was.
Speaker 3: A Democrat for many years. He ran for Congress out
Speaker 3: in San Diego back in the early nineties under a
Speaker 3: no growth platform. He was against economic growth, and he
Speaker 3: hasn't fundamentally changed over the years. Like he's not a capitalist,
Speaker 3: he's not a free market guy. He has he has
Speaker 3: a poisonous influence on the president. I don't like him
Speaker 3: at all. So, you know, I really this shift towards
Speaker 3: you know, getting rid of tariffs on other countries except
Speaker 3: for China. Bessen is the architect of that. And you know,
Speaker 3: I think we're not going to hear much from to
Speaker 3: borrow in the future.
Speaker 2: And then my last question is it was there was
Speaker 2: a joke earlier this week that I guess they put
Speaker 2: a tariff on a couple of uninhabited islands in the
Speaker 2: South Pacific. How does something like that happen at the
Speaker 2: White House? I mean that that that sort of says
Speaker 2: to me amateur.
Speaker 3: Alan actually believe it or not? I heard about that.
Speaker 3: That's not unreasonable. So one of the reasons they did that,
Speaker 3: and I'm sure you heard this, is so they didn't
Speaker 3: they didn't want countries using those islands as a loophole
Speaker 3: to get around the tariffs. Right, So you might think
Speaker 3: of it as kind of nonsensical or overkill, but there
Speaker 3: actually was a purpose behind it.
Speaker 2: So yeah, all right, well that I've never heard that
Speaker 2: that analysis, but it makes it makes a point. I
Speaker 2: assume there's a lot of uninhabited islands in the world.
Speaker 2: I really enjoyed this hour, Jared, Thank you so much,
Speaker 2: and I want to thank the gentleman who put you
Speaker 2: and me in contact today, Chris Berry. It was it
Speaker 2: was a really good hour, and you make this conversation fun.
Speaker 2: Uh maybe fun. I should have had you on one
Speaker 2: of the one of the bad nights. But thank you
Speaker 2: so much. I'd love to keep in touch again. Jared
Speaker 2: Dillion J A R. E. D. Dillion d I L
Speaker 2: L I A N Money dot Com. Thanks again. I
Speaker 2: hope to have you back.
Speaker 3: Thanks Jared, thank you appreciate it.
Speaker 2: You bet you all right? When we come back, we're
Speaker 2: going to get your reaction last night, it was kind
Speaker 2: of a funeral parler. Uh, well tonight. You know, we're
Speaker 2: not out of the woods yet here, but I think
Speaker 2: we're going. We went in the right direction today. Let's
Speaker 2: talk about it. Coming back right after the eleven o'clock
Speaker 2: news on Nightside, I'll open the lines up. It's just
Speaker 2: you and me between now and midnight. Fill them up.
Speaker 2: Six one, seven, two, five, four ten thirty or six
Speaker 2: one seven, nine three one ten thirty