Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It is time for total basis.
Opening weekend is in the books. Of course, we have
NFL Week two levels of overreactions after three games, but
it also makes this, in my opinion, one of the
best weeks to bet Major League Baseball, not that there's
ever a bad week.
Speaker 2: So we're gonna talk Mariners Yankees.
Speaker 1: We're gonna get into the chat and talk about what
you guys want to talk about.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go to Brian Leonard.
Speaker 1: First and we're gonna get right into this big game,
and then we'll go to Tokyo Brandon Mariners Yankees for me,
Brian one aversus one B. As far as I have
the American League rated, I think a lot of people
would probably agree with that. We are out in the
Pacific Northwest tonight to open up this series, and the
Yankees are gonna put a guy on the mound that
you talked about a lot last year, and you had
had sort of a beat on this guy last year.
So kick us Yankees, Mariners. How are you seeing this
matchup tonight?
Speaker 3: Yeah? Left, Ryan Weather's gone to the Yankees, and as
long as he's on the mound, you want to take
advantage of it because he does have some injury problems
in the past. He's going against Luis Castillo Castillo at home. Obviously,
with Seattle. I'm seeing lines out there about Seattle about
one minus one ten, sort of like a pick him game.
In a total of a seven and a half. I've
seen some eighths under minus one twenty. Interesting game for
myself obviously because there are two teams that are really good.
But also and I'll talk about Seattle a little bit
later when we get to our segment where we talk about,
you know, what's been going on with us and what
we've got up. But we've got Lewis SiO going for
the Yankees. He's a righty and uh normally wrighty's. You know,
you see a lot of times where I had the
lefty righting situation for the starting pitchers. It's interesting how
good last year Luis Castillo was against righty's compared to lefties.
Not tonight. He's probably going to face only three rdies
and six lefties. Well last year, I guess right handed pitchers,
and I'm a real big believer in strikeout minus walk ratio.
His strikeout ratio is twenty five point two percent. His
walk three point three gives him a twenty one point
nine strikeout minus walk ratio against righty's, which is awesome.
It's awesome. Well, look at him against lefties. He faced
eighty four lefty batteries last year in the Inks, pitched
eighty four to eighty four innings. His strikeout ratio eighteen
point fours compared to twenty five point two, his walk
ratio compared to three point three nine point zero. So
his strikeout minus walk ratio was only nine point four
percent against lefties. And as I said before, like twenty
one point nine or whatever. I guess right is, lefties
can hit him, and the Yankees got some good left
handed hitters here. I think that's going to be a difference.
I've been looking to Fade Castillo the last few years,
and he's getting older, and I think after playing a
night game last night on National TV, it's a little
bit of a nuts here for the Yankees, I believe.
So I like the Yankees in this game.
Speaker 2: Oh, I mean, I'm muting.
Speaker 1: You know, I'm getting good at muting myself when other
people are talking. Kelly has been on me for that,
and sometimes I'm too good at it. And then I
forget to unumute myself. I was trying to bring Tokyo
Brandon into the conversation, and what I was saying when
I was muted was TV, you had a couple of
good calls on the Yankees first weekend. They go and
get the sweep out at the Bay Area. Now they
head up to the Pacific Northwest. So how are you
seeing this one? Yankees Mariners?
Speaker 4: Yeah, this one interesting?
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 4: Weathers is interesting picture. If you look at his game
law from last year, man, he's seven strikeouts, one strikeout,
two strikeouts, six strikeout. He's just all over the place.
And one thing that's consistent about him is he hardly
ever pitches six innings in his starts. He's very low inning,
a low out sky. So the first thing I did
was to look at his his outs and strikeout props.
His his strikeout prop right now is over under five
and a half and it's minus one sixty five to
the under. So that number will probably change to four
and a half.
Speaker 2: But he doesn't.
Speaker 4: He's not a real strikeout guy. I would kind of
lean on his under there. Louis Castillo looking at him,
older guy, but he's still, you know, fairly dependable his numbers.
His OPS is around six eighty against the Yankees, which
means he has had a decent h The problem is
he's got a long, long history. Brian's trying to say something,
but he's muted. Oh no, okay, sorry, never mind. So
it's a long history though, so some of those numbers
were probably acquired a long time ago. Judge has ten
at bats against him at thirteen ops. Rosario has twenty
at bats and a one thousand OPS against him, But
aside from that, none of the other batters really do
damage against him. I think Castillo will be okay in
this game. I don't know if I'm going to play
the Mariners, but I don't like the Yankees with Weathers
on the mound. Unfortunately, I think he has a possibility
to He's just so erratic. I really don't know what
to expect from him, but I do know he's not
going to well. No, but I assume he's not going
to finish six innings and I assume he's not going
to get six strikeouts. So I would take unders in
any of those props. I'm more confident about that than
I am on the side. But if I had to
take this, it would probably be Seattle.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 1: Tough part about Weathers is he was coming off of injury.
So it's like to me, you know, you're looking at
last year. Brian, correct me if I'm wrong. He missed
some time?
Speaker 2: Was he.
Speaker 1: What was his injury? I know he came into the
year last year battling injury.
Speaker 2: Was that? Is that correct?
Speaker 3: Yeah? I don't remember exactly what the injury is. One
season switches to the other. I tried it. Yeah, how
many as are injured anymore?
Speaker 4: You know?
Speaker 3: But he was. He did a big part of the.
Speaker 2: Season, missed a part of the season. Started the year.
Speaker 1: I know he spent a little bit of time in Jacksonville,
probably for that reason, I think sort of, you know,
I think he was down here, down there on a
rehab stint or two so TV, I think I'd be
more if I had to pick between those two markets,
outs or strikeouts, I'd probably be more inclined to go
with an outs under, just because, like I was making
this point to Brian off air before we came on, like,
you know, I felt like my approach to Opening Weekend,
even though I didn't get the results that I wanted personally,
was pretty good. Where it was like, hey, starting pitching
probably shouldn't be weighted as much in your handicap of
the team as it will be two months from now,
one month from now, we'll say, one month from now.
Speaker 2: Give him a start or two to get in the mix.
Speaker 1: A lot of erradic stuff from starters, and a lot
of starters not working very deep into games.
Speaker 2: Just natural. Right we're in March.
Speaker 1: And then so you look at a guy like Weathers,
I think he could get the strikeouts because he's got
the stuff, but.
Speaker 2: Maybe he doesn't work deep in the game.
Speaker 1: I'd be more inclined to go with the under outs
and the other strikeout.
Speaker 2: Just that's just my personal you know, a take on
the game there.
Speaker 1: How about the side, Yeah, as far as the side
is concerned, you know, I'm very close on what I
make the number. I like I said coming out when
I came on to the show, one AVERS, one B
for me in the American League, I personally lean toward.
Speaker 2: The Mariners for my ratings standpoint.
Speaker 1: I have the Mariners one, I have the Yankees two,
but there's other things to take into consideration. Mariners did
play last night. I don't know how much that matters.
At this point in the season. I'll Mariners, you know,
and this will will segue this into the next game.
Speaker 2: We're gonna talk about. I'm gonna go to Brian here.
You know, Mariners can't You can't overreact to one weekend.
But I have to say I was.
Speaker 1: I was a little bit more impressed with the Guardians
than I expected to be. So shout out to you
because you you had offered a pro Guardian's take on
our very first show of the year. I'm not gonna
overreact and say the Mariners aren't still the best team
in the American League or right near the top because
they went to and two. But shout out to your
Cleveland Guardians. That was a pretty impressive weekend series for them,
even getting blown out last night.
Speaker 2: So kick us off.
Speaker 1: I'll go to you on Guardians Dodgers, and then I'm
gonna go to the chat and we'll find the next
game for TV. But talk to me about Guardians Dodgers,
and if you think that carries over to this series.
Speaker 3: Well, first of all, I played the Guardian's team total
under early on, so I'm not a pro Guardian's guy.
But I will say the moves they made at the
end of spring training. The people they kept up at
people that they dropped down. They just said, you know,
Nolan Jones was yeah, he had he's been lousy for
the for the Guardians. They let him go. Logan Allen,
they let him go down. So they kept Messick. And
Messic is the guy on the mound today for Cleveland,
and he could be the best pitcher in this lineup.
And they started rotation for Cleveland. I really like if
he's a lefty, he's going against Rocky or Rookie Sazaki today,
Who's got a guy who if you've watched him in
the in the preseason, you you want to fade him.
So we've got to bet on with Cleveland with messake
a bet against with the Dodgers with Sasaki. That said,
this Cleveland offense is terrible and the Dodgers offense is
so much better. So we're getting the Dodgers and roughly
the one ninety range here, I mean, I'm saying from
eighty five to two dollars and the total is eight
and a half to the over, nine to the under.
So but the reason why I'm interested in this game
is because I think we've got a situation where if
you're going to play this game, we would have to
look at the first five. If you like Cleveland, we're
getting if you're if you're a Cleveland fan, in this game,
you're getting about a one sixty five back. You look
at the first half, you're getting a one thirty five back,
and that thirty cents is probably a bargain because once
the Dodgers go to the bullpen and Sazaki is out
of the game, Dodgers just good as Cleveland, probably better
in the bullpen. So if I'm looking to play it,
I would look to play Cleveland in the first five.
But I don't know if I trust the Cleveland offense,
so I want to Faceasaki. But Cleveland did not look
as good to me as they did to you. And
since photoking Cleveland, i'll talk about it now.
Speaker 2: C J.
Speaker 3: Caaphas yesterday is a first baseman and a right fielder.
Because Cleveland is trying to get any offense they can,
they put him out in the left field yesterday. For
some reason, he misplayed three balls in left field in Tacony.
Was was playing, pitching a great game, two outsitting and
that I believe it was the fourth fly ball to
the left field he had to run for it. He
slid ford instead of diving and it falls for a
double chock up to Cony. Then he gets bombed that
ding in the next inning, and there's bad move by
the manager to put him out in left field. I've
never seen him play left field before, at least of
the majors, And it's a situation that they're trying to
be too cute with this, and they cost him the
game yesterday, and it cost me my play. I had
a three percent on that, so I'm a little frustrated.
But yeah, the managers try to get too cute, and
it really affects these, especially young pitchers. If you think
you're hardly ending on a guy, the guy makes a mistake,
it really affects them.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean, listen, I think you could say this just
about anything that happened opening weekend.
Speaker 2: If it happened in the middle of July, no.
Speaker 1: One would notice, right, No one would care. It would
just be run of the mill. I don't think the Guardians,
you know, for me, I'm not anymore like, I'm not
any more pro Guardians necessarily. I was just impressed that
they were able to split a series with you know,
go on the road split a series. But and I'll
come to you for this one, Tokyo Brandon, the Nats
went into.
Speaker 2: Wrigley and won a series.
Speaker 1: Are the have you bumped the Gnats like significantly on
their power ratings? I'm guessing probably no, So TV, I
want to come to you.
Speaker 2: We're going back to Wrigley Field.
Speaker 1: They've got another team that Brian Leonard said was gonna
flirt with one hundred losses in the building. Tonight the
Angels are coming to town Wrigley Field. Are you finding
a way to get involved with the Cubbies at all
in this series?
Speaker 2: And how about tonight?
Speaker 4: Well, one thing you can say about the Angels is
they're really hitting right now. And Mike Trout's hitting like
almost five hundred right now, So I mean, yeah, it's opening,
you know, the season just opened up, and so obviously
he's not going to hit five hundred for the season,
and obviously he's not going to be healthy for the season.
But man, the Cubs have a good lineup. Though the
Cubs have been putting up runs as well. If anything,
I would I would thinking over in this game. But
I don't think the line's out yet. Because of that
stupid Chicago wind theory, So if anything, I would thinking
over right away. I don't know much about Ryan Johnson,
but I do know that Edward Cabrera has decent stats
against the Angels in his career, which would if it's
a nine and a half, might hold me off the
over Mike Trout one for two against Cabrera. None of
the other guys really have decent numbers against him, and
the Angel's bullpen is trash. Cubs have are one of
the money teams that can spend money, so any team
that spends money generally will have a decent bullpen. So
the Cubs, I'll have to see what they got, but
their bullpen is definitely better than the Angels. I can
say that without any hesitation. I think the Cubs. You know,
I got burned by the Cubs yesterday though, because I
took him, But I shouldn't have taken him on the
third game they after they won two. I took the
Cubs minus one and a half, and that was a mistake.
I think the Cubs bounce back here and trounced the Angels. Actually,
Cabrera's got decent numbers against these Angels. Is his ops
is like six point fifty in his career against him,
and he's actually a decent pitcher. I don't know much
about the Ryan Johnson, though some you guys follow minor
leaguers more than I do, so you might know more
about him than I do. But the Angels bullpen, I
think the Diamondbacks and the Angels probably have the two
worst bullpens in Major League Baseball. And maybe I'm forgetting one,
but you can't bet that. You can't bet those teams
to win a game. You just can't do it until
they show you. The Diamondbacks don't even have a lefty
in their bullpen. I mean, you have to fade those teams,
in my opinion.
Speaker 1: TV hold that thought on the d Backs for one second.
I want to bring Brian into this game because we
can't talk Wrigley Field weather without bringing Brian Leonard in.
So I don't hate the idea of a Cubs like Listen,
you're still paying a premium for the Cubs, no question
about it.
Speaker 2: But I like Edward Cabrera. I think the Marlins kind
of had to.
Speaker 1: They have a lot of pieces and and you know
we've talked about the Marlins just like there's so there's
so many different pieces in the organization they felt like
they could let this one go get something back for him,
so on and so forth. But like Cabrera is a
guy I'm excited about. But Brian, you're always all over
the Wrigley Field weather situation. So any opinion here?
Speaker 2: What's the weather like? And how are you looking at
Angels cups?
Speaker 3: Well, right now, the total in this game is nine
and a half, which means win. It's not blowing in,
so it's not blowing out terribly, but it should have
some runs scored in this game. And Ryan Johnson was
brought up by the Angels. He was a reliever last
year only through fifteen mints, but he's basically he's been
a starter, and that's where they want to use him.
I've heard some good reports about Ryan Johnson and and
so he may surprise you here. I don't know how
long he's going to go because he'd only pitched a
relief in the majors last year, but he's got some
big differences against lefties and righties. Last year in fifteen
innings he pitched ten basically tenning is worth against varieties,
and he had a twenty two excuse me a twenty
three point four strikeout min schwalk ratio, which is fantastic.
But if you take a look at the lefties, you
had a four point one he played, he faced lefties,
you know, one third of the time a four point one,
and the Cubs are gonna use six lefties against him today.
So I think the Cubs are going to get to
him today. Maybe a team total over on the on
the Cubs maybe the better way to go about it,
because that is kind of an expensive price. A lot
of people out there like the Cubs started a little
bit more than I do. Hey, hey have one good year.
Did make some changes. We'll see if it carries on
this year.
Speaker 1: All right, Tokyo, Brandon, I want to I said, hold
that thought because I wanted to dig in a little
deeper with the Diamondbacks.
Speaker 2: They're oher and three start.
Speaker 1: You know, I look at a team just to make
a segue here and we'll shut down that Angels Cubs game.
You know you said the eight like, yeah, the Angel's
bullpen is probably bad. They were awful last season.
Speaker 2: Well, I say.
Speaker 1: Probably because they went out and got some guys that
are at least are interesting to me that could be
potential good arms out of the bullpen, but it's really
hard to tell what we'll see how like who falls
into what role there. I think I'm with you in
saying my gut says, especially going back to last year,
something that came up a few times, the Angels seem
to find a way to mess pitchers up more and
more often than not, Like they don't they don't necessarily
develop pitchers in that organization, Like seems like you get
there and you get worse. So I'm not disagreeing with
the Angel's bullpen potentially being bad.
Speaker 2: But where I really agree with you the Diamondbacks.
Speaker 1: There, it's not a skill thing as much as it's
like they're coming into the season extremely banged up in
the bullpen. It was already a pretty rough pen last
year into this year. Now they start zero to three.
Like I'm trying not to overreact here, but like the
Diamondbacks might not be very good, like I think there was.
There's people that are higher on this team than I
Like you know, and you look in the context of
the NL West, and I'll let you talk about Tiger's Diamondbacks,
but in the context of the NL West, like I
still prefer just about everyone other than the Rockies to
this Diamondbacks team, obviously the Dodgers. I think people probably
knock the Giants down a few pegs. I don't necessarily
think that's fair based off one weekend. So now you've
got the Tigers coming to town, a team that'll you know,
probably wins their division.
Speaker 2: How are you looking at this one tonight?
Speaker 1: Tiger's d Backs, Verlander, Soroka, couple couple of veterans here.
Speaker 4: I'm going to take just two seconds and tell everyone
that we have a double play thing out. I know
we should do this at the end, but I want
to do it right now. Double play you can pick
two of us for three days for forty nine bucks
two of us. So it's a great deal. Check it
out at wagertalk dot com. It's just in my blood.
I gotta do it. So I made a free video
on wager talk about this game. So I'm very prepared
to talk about it. So Justin Verlander not only has
a really hot wife, but he's got good stats against
these Diamondbacks. Last year in twenty twenty four, he got
blown up by the Diamondbacks. That last year he had
two starts against him. He went seven innings and shut
him out. And then in another start, I think he
off the top of my head five innings and he
gave up two runs, So he has good stats against
these guys. I have no idea why the Tigers are
underdogs in this game. Makes no sense to me. I
got him for plus one hundred and I put it
out as a client. Play better bullpen, and let's not
forget until the Tigers basically tanked at the end of
the year last year. They had the best record in
MLB for a good portion of the season last year
until the Brewers made their surgeon and the Tigers started
to vomit. But they got the better bullpen by far.
They've got, in my opinion, the better starter. I mean,
Soroka is not bad, but I don't trust him. And actually,
if you look at twenty twenty five, Verlinder actually had
a better season. He had more starts, he had more innings,
and he had a better season in my opinion. So
better pitcher, better bullpen. They might not have the better hitters.
The Diamondbacks have been putting up runs despite getting destroyed,
but I think with those two factors are good enough
to take plus money on the Tigers today.
Speaker 2: I can't argue with you on the number.
Speaker 1: I mean, my number kind of came out right in
there in that range. Arizona does hit at home, so
you know, yeah, that's that is Their splits tend to
be better at home if you were look like last
three years or so, and that's quite often kind of
widely considered. If you listen to big leaguers talk, they
love hitting it at Chase Field. It's kind of one
of the better hitting backdrops you're gonna find in the league. Brian,
I'm gonna go to Ge Hurt in the chat for you,
and then we'll go to Garth and I'll kick it
back to Tokyo Brandon. But I'm gonna give you this one.
Uh Ge Hurts has any thoughts on Orioles Rangers. I'll
just kick it off by saying I'm pretty pro Jack Whier.
This was interesting to me, so talk me off the Rangers.
Here is what I'll give to you.
Speaker 3: All Right, We've got lighter against Bassett. Baltimore is a
home we're looking at about a one twenty five favorite and nine.
I did want to ask opinion, if you guys have
a chance Tokyo talked about it. When a pitcher no
picture plays that team a lot the year before as
opposed to another picture, is add an advantage to the
hitters or the pictures. I know Tokyo made that advantage
to the picture, but just wondering if you had an
overall opinion. But we'll wait and get to that in
a minute. Lighter against Baltimore, Lighter was really good in
the second half. He found himself in the second half
last year. Will that continue? Will have to see. Bassett's
a guy. This is the first game with his new team.
Had a lot of success in Toronto last year, and
it looked really good in the playoffs. And he looked
so good in the playoffs, and a lot of teams
could have signed him as a as a middle of
late reliever and thought of that might be the way
it goes. But he doesn't want. He wants to start,
and so we got Texas here against Baltimore. When I'm
looking at Bassett from what he did last year, his
strikeout to walk ratio in there against righties was over
twenty percent. Against left he's about twelve percent, So he's
been actually pretty good in that regard. Overall. He did
throw one hundred and sixty nine innings and his last
time he's taken them on was seven days ago, so
I expect a pretty good effort out of Bassett. Baltimore,
on the other hand, with Jack Leader going up against him.
Jack Ledder last year one hundred and fifty one innings
for lefty righty's he strick out. My walk for righties
was about eleven percent. Left he's about thirteen and a half,
both of them pretty pretty low compared to the league average,
although he's able to get out both lefties and righties equally,
and we expect we expect Baltimore to have five rights
today and four lefties as opposed to what we were
saying earlier with the other pitcher. We'll see what that
happens there. But in this game, I think the alliance
pretty much what I expected it to be, so you know,
we'll have to see that. So far the Baltimore stadium,
I think he's played a little bit sports the under
even though they brought those benches in a little bit.
We'll see how this goes. But nine's are pretty high,
pretty high total with the guys that have this ability,
So we'll have to see how this goes.
Speaker 1: I think, you know, to answer your question, I'm typically
going to give exposure. I'm gonna give hitters the nod
when it comes to exposure, So like, if you've had
a long history against a pitcher, I'm usually gonna give
it to the hitters. That being said, the more veteran pitchers,
the more cerebral pitchers, I'm less inclined to do that.
And you know, say what you want about Verlander being
at the end of his career, gonna be hard pressed
to find a more you know, at this point, not
gonna be many more cerebral pitchers than him in terms
of like just totally understanding how to pitch, in the
psychology of pitching, something that's probably getting lost on in
the game today. I think I think there's some of them,
but I do think we have a lot more throwers
than pitchers. I'm gonna kind of use this to I'm
gonna get to TV in a second with with Garth's question,
but I want to close down the Rangers Orioles thing
by saying this for Gee Hurt, just to give a
pick on this game, this is the exact setup that
I've been kind of looking for now, I agree with Brian.
Then the respect my number is actually I show value
to the Rangers as a dog, slight value to the
Rangers as a dog. But we've got a starter and
Jack Wider, who I'm personally I think higher than the
market on that doesn't really affect the line. He's not
like a front end guy, so he's not really like
having a huge effect on the number, which means I'm
not really betting on a starting pitcher, which I'm trying
not to do. And then an Orioles team that I
think you want to talk about bullpens. I think the
jury is still out on the Oriols bullpen. Remember they
traded a lot of their pieces away last year. Yes,
they did improve in the offseason on paper, but this
is not a bullpen that I'm like totally in love
with at this point. So Rangers plus money plus one
ten plus one fifteen got some thought for me. Not
something that I've bet yet, but I am pretty high
on this Rangers team, so in just in general, so
that would be a Rangers or pass for me. Tokyo
Brandon Garth is donated to the show, so shout out
to Garth very much appreciate that, and he also has
a question, and I'm actually gonna gonna I'm gonna go
to Brian after this, but I want you to talk
about another game in addition to the ones he's talking about.
So Garth's sets this up like this, he said, already
played Dodgers and Cubs to not bat in the ninth.
Found this play and it helps cut down on the
juice and not lay the minus one and a half.
I actually find that very interesting. That's that's an interesting
market obviously if you dig on some of you know,
I'm I'm I'd imagine like DraftKings or some of the
legals maybe have this. So I'm gonna bring another game
into the mix that I think could be used as
as you know that that could probably fit the profile
of a game that you could use in this same
same sort of context. And that's gonna be the Blue
Jays and the Rockies with our guy Cody ponce Kbo
had a phenomenal year last year. He comes over to
the State TV. I'm kind of high on Cody pots.
I think he's gonna have a good year. I think
his stuff's gonna play. So talk to Garth about that
and the whole you know, trying to circumvent laying minus
one and a half. If you think that's a good idea,
and also, would you consider doing it with the Blue
Jays arguably the big you know, I think the biggest
favorite on the board today.
Speaker 4: So the Rockies and Blue Jay's game today. It's interesting
because we got two pitchers who pitched in Japan. Cody
Ponts pitched in Japan before he went to the KBO.
He's pretty average over here in Japan. He was pretty
h up and down. Uh And Sugano pitched obviously in Japan,
same team as Okamoto. Uh And Sagano is a guy
that I don't really like that much, so I agree
I would go Blue Jays are nothing in that game.
But I'll cut that short and address his question. I
think that's a great idea. I never thought of that.
But essentially, Uh, you're knocking all the juice off and
taking the Cubs to win the game, because if they're winning,
they don't bat in the ninth, right, But you're also
you also have to be wary of if it goes
into extra innings, then you lose. So but overall, I
think extra inning games are about five percent. If I'm
not mistaken. I could be wrong on that, but how
many hats do I own? I own about twenty five hats. Anyways,
I think it's a great way to take Cubs to
win the game. On the money line, it's more like
a three way. It would be more like a three
way money line, but depends on what the odds are.
If the Cubs are minus two hundred and you can
take them to not baden the ninth inning and knock
it down to like minus one fifty, I think that's great.
It's even better value than a minus one.
Speaker 1: Brian, same question to you, same game, So obviously you
know the concept here from Garth is an interesting one.
I'm all for trying to get out of laying minus
one and a half, So it's an interesting sort of
viewpoint for me. And then talk to me. You know,
you and I think are are both higher than most
on the Rockies. But are they up against it north
of the border here?
Speaker 3: Yeah, for this one, I do. The Hockey Show starts
at an hour after this one finishes. I'm not on today,
but the guys in hockey they call it winning and regulation,
and you find a lot of times, especially during with
the rules in hockey where you play a three and
three and then do the shootout. Certain teams Pittsburgh and
Vegas are terrible and in overtime because of that. So
all you have to do is find out how many
times games go to overtime and how many times these
teams what their winning percentage would be based on going
to overtime, And that's how you find it out. So
no bet in the night this minus want forty? I
what's what's the what was the full line on that one?
Let me go back and look again. But if you're
saving forty to fifty cents, yes, that's it's better to
do it that way. But without knowing the numbers, I
can't comment on it. But I haven't seen that before.
But I like it. And I was the Orioles what
game was it? What game was?
Speaker 2: Oh?
Speaker 1: He was asking specifically and Dodgers, and then I just
I threw the for just for another talking point and
other to hit another game. I threw the Blue Jays
in the mix because they're such a big favor today
and they're you know, I'm pretty high on Ponts, even
even as a guy that that was really pumping the
Rockies plus one and plus one and a half last week,
which won every game, by the way, even though they
didn't hit it, they didn't win a single game. But
they're three and oh on the spread. I don't even
know if I could get down with Rockies plus one
and a half here. I think they might. I think
they might get dusted in this one. But yeah, I
finished that up, Brian.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree, Sigano, I can't. I was really surprised
by the guys Colorado, the veterans they brought in to
pitch in Colorado, guys that I don't think our good
pitcher was in the first place. And that's one of
all of them, is Sigano. Yes, the total in this
game is eight and a half. If I'm looking to
play this game, I'm looking to play Toronto on the
team total. Let's take a look at what that is,
because I want to go against the Gano uh And
of course it makes sense. Toronto is a you got
to get him to score six runs. You're getting plus
money back. If you just get him to score six
it's five and a half to the under one under
one forty. But if they score six runs, you're getting
nice money back. And in a game, total is this
number that's a little bit of a I mean they
have to win six, six to two and a half,
six to whatever. But Ponce's guy is Brandon talked about
came over. I've heard nothing but good things about him.
He's changed everything he's done since he was in the
was in the Major league before, and he's got a
totally different pitch mix. We saw that last night out
of the Seattle pitcher. She totally changes pit pitch micks
and the Cleveland Batters had no clue what to expect.
It'll work early if they could continue to do that.
I expect for him to get to start the season
very well and we'll see how long it goes. But
if you change like that, you'll have a lot of
success for a couple of times out and then people
will make the adjustments to you and they have to
make the adjustment back and we'll see how good of
a picture they are.
Speaker 1: Me Mez says, so Toronto cooks the Rockies today? Yeah,
I think so. I'd find a way to get on
the Blue Jays. Of what we've talked about so far,
that's probably my strongest opinion. Pont's stuff is insane, and
I think the Big League. I think the MLV is
about to find out just how good that is. Tokyo Brandon.
It is best bets time, So I'm going to head
over to you. We hit the parlay on Friday, shout
out to us, second one of the year cash, so
we are have a nice little cushion at least for
a couple of days. We're going to try to do
it again today. But what is your best bet for
the show? Parlay Leg, you have the floor we rock.
Speaker 4: Let me mention one thing about the Cubs. I've been
trying to play them a lot. Their team total is
five and a half every day. It's really hard to
play a five and a half team total. But anyways,
so I like, I like our chats suggestion. We have
the best audience in all of the wager talk shows
by far, I think in my opinion. So my parlay Leg,
I'm gonna go back to the game I covered earlier,
the guy with the hot wife. I'm gonna take the
Tigers plus one and a half. Though, because it's a parlay,
you can get it at minus two oh five, so
I'm gonna go with that. I wouldn't bet that. I
wouldn't put that out as a professional cap or as
a as a standalone bet. But since we're doing parlay legs,
I'm I'm gonna I'm gonna cheat. We'll take plus one
and a half at minus two oh five.
Speaker 1: Actually, seeing like minus one ninety five is pretty reasonable
that you there's I'm gonna, I'm gonna give you minus
one ninety five in the parlay because there is plenty
of those out there for that game. Yeah, listen for
a three teamer a little minus one ninety minus two hundred.
I think on Friday, I can't remember one of the
days I had the Mariners minus one sixty five, So
that's that's not a problem at all. And yeah, you're
getting the you know, I love my plus one and
a half When they're with the road team, you kind
of get that extra built in at that. So yeah,
TD I, I can't really argue with that. Look, Brian Leonard,
I'm gonna go to you best bet for the show
parlay leg What are you looking at?
Speaker 3: Oh? You know me, I like to play games and
nobody really has much interest in So I'm gonna look
at the Chicago White Sox and the Miami Marlins in
this one. Davis Martin starting for the White Sox. He
along with Eric Cometti, for some reason, they signed. These
are two guys I'm looking to fade. I do like Smith,
I like Kay, I like Burke. These two guys are
two guys that I want to go against. Davis Martin
has not really impressed me at all. You take a
look at his what he has done so far in
his career. I haven't seen anything where of a wager
here and the White Sox. You know, they just played
on the road and they're continuing to play on the road. Here.
The closer, Sir Anthony Demingez, pitched the last two games.
Grant Taylor, the best guy in the bullpen, pitched the
last two games at Chris Murphy also pitched the last
two games. When I'm taking a look at this game here,
I much prefer, and I don't think I've said this
much in my lifetime, I much prefer Chris Paddock over
Martin in this game. Chris Paddock is not a guy
you're gonna make money on the long run. He's a
guy that's been a French player. He's never played up
to his abilities. But if you saw him as spring
training this year, he did make some changes. He looks
so much better, and you're laying one thirty one thirty
five here in Miami. To me right now is a
slightly better team playing at home, and Chicago was already
on the road and they didn't look very good. So
let's go with Miami here. I think that's a bit
of a bargain playing in the one thirty to one
forty range.
Speaker 1: Yeah, let me, you know, I'll chime in just real
quickly on this, you know, on this White Sox team.
I still think they're a team that you probably want
to look to back like at some point, like in
terms of like, I'm not going to judge.
Speaker 2: Them for the Brewers series.
Speaker 1: I mean, I think we could look at Milwaukee down
the road and be like, this is a pretty elite
team when it's all said and done. But yeah, I
mean the Marlins, there's so much to like about what
they've got going on in that organization. Peter Bendix just
an absolute just wizard, gets own Casey walk off Homer,
I mean, like the guy just I don't know why, Brian,
they got to be They're becoming like the Rays like
of a year of a decade ago, where it's like
why would you give them a player. You should if
they want one of your players, you should give that
player a raise.
Speaker 3: At this point, well they don't know it yet, but
they will know.
Speaker 2: It, right, Yeah, so that's Marlins.
Speaker 1: You want Marlins on the money line, we can call
it minus one thirty five for for the sake of parlay.
Speaker 2: All right, let's.
Speaker 1: I want to go to the chat here real quick
before before I get into my best bet for the show.
A couple of quick things. One, we have the double
play package that Tokyo Brandon.
Speaker 2: Brought up earlier in the show.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 1: You can choose any two of us uh for a
three day period. It's a it's a it's a large
discount as opposed to just buying one, pretty much a
two for one. Someone in the chat said, Fade Trig, Yeah,
if you did last weekend, you did, Okay, did not
have the best opening weekend of baseball, but I I
did offset most of that last week with with college hoops,
so you know, it's it's very early in the season.
But yeah, look listen that that two for one. If
that's how you're looking at it, you can just get
TV and and Brian and and then that you don't
even have to deal with me. That's the beauty of
being able to to choose too. But if you think
I bounce back from a three to five opening weekend
in baseball, then that then come on over and uh,
you know, hopefully we'll have a couple of better days
this week. I've got to hit the chat for one more.
Jack Bulk says a trig. You might appreciate this. I
coughed up a large stack of money to go watch
my ALIONI in India next weekend.
Speaker 2: Jack.
Speaker 1: I will be there too, So I will be at
the I'm there to cover the n I T on Thursday,
and then I may kind of hang out and if
I can, if I can weasele my way into the
final four, I will.
Speaker 2: I will do that.
Speaker 1: So hit me up DM ME love to love to
buy you a beverage of your choice, whatever that might be.
And uh love meeting you guys out in the wild.
So yeah, I will be in Indianapolis. I'm gonna try.
I don't know if the weather's gonna allow me to
do this. I'm gonna try to go watch Connor Griffin
play on my way in Columbus, But unfortunately the weather
is such that they might not play. I don't know
if they're playing any baseball in the Northeast this weekend.
It is a not looking promising for the weather there.
But hey, if they play, I'll be in the ell
in the mix.
Speaker 4: Go ahead, TV, Can I mention something before we end
the show?
Speaker 2: Yeah? Go ahead, you got time.
Speaker 4: Yesterday on my Twitter, I put out an OPS ranking
for pictures. I just wanted to get this out before
the show's over. It's probably a bad lead in, but
number one on my list ops was Emerson Hancock, and
he went six innings of no hit yesterday. Today, I
put out another list on my Twitter of ops listed
number one of Ferris Bueller. Walker Bueler is number one,
So just a reference, But yeah, just wanted to myself.
Speaker 3: You're trying to say, what's that? Well, by the names
you're painting those teams, Walker Buehler and No.
Speaker 4: According to my list, he has the best ops against
the batteries he's facing today in the minimum of twenty
yesterday was Emerson Hancock. So if you if you guys
looked at my list yesterday and went with Emerson Hancock,
you would have made some money. So I'm putting that
list out again today, So just want to maybe.
Speaker 1: I love that Emerson Hancock is that high on your list,
because I what they did last year with him is
they sent him down a triple A. And this is
a guy that never pitched out of the bullpen, not
one single time in his entire career, and they just said,
you know what, we need a bullpen arm.
Speaker 2: Why not him?
Speaker 1: He never throw an inning of relief in his entire
time in the Mariners.
Speaker 2: Organization, and I think it.
Speaker 1: I think he now understands like it forced him to
throw harder and suddenly his velocity was up, and I
think he sort of carried that into this year. I'm
very very high in Emerson Hancock and kicking myself that
I was Mariners last night was just out of range
from a price I wanted to lay, and in hindsight,
I should have just done it because it was easy win.
But I too, am very high at Emerson Hancock. So
I think you're probably onto something there in the chat
what's the best pick for the show, Well, we just
gave out two. We're gonna recap it in a second.
I'm gonna put the Blue Jays in the parlay minus
one and a half that that bet is not my style.
For a straight bet, I can't. I can't give a
minus one and a half that's minus one thirty as like,
I can't condone betting that straight just because again it's
not that it's not a winning bet, but like to
me that that's a little bit out of my price
range or something that I want to like give to
clients A home team laying one and a half and
you have to lay minus one thirty. But as far
as the parlay is concerned, I think the Blue Jays
might hang a couple crooked numbers on the Rockies tonight.
And I'm so I am so high on Cody Pont's
Tokyo Brandon. I'm convinced that what we watched every fifth
or sixth day in Korea last year is going to translate.
His pitch mix is incredible. He looked awesome in the spring.
I think he's gonna I think the league might be
in for a root awakening having to go up against him.
And you want to talk about I mean, we have
the league and then there's the Colorado Rockies. I think
the Rockies are going to be better this year, but
the reality is this team, even in massive improvement would
still be winning like sixty games, fifty five games, and
they started owing three in games that they could win,
and now they've got to go and face the Blue Jays.
Travel from South Florida to north of the border just
does not seem like a good scenario for the Rockies.
So give me the Blue Jays minus one and a
half minus one thirty and that will be my best
bet for the show. So to answer your question, the
parlay for today, you've got three plays, so Tokyo. Brandon
is going with Tigers plus one and a half minus
one ninety five.
Speaker 2: That's for the parlay.
Speaker 1: If you want him opinion on that game, and probably
a way to just bet it as a straight bet,
head on over to the wager Talk YouTube channel. He's
done a video on that same game. But for the parlay,
we're going Tigers plus one and a half minus one
ninety five. Brian Leonard is going with the Marlins on
the money line that's minus one thirty five, and then
I will go Blue Jays minus one and a half
minus one thirty. Again, I'm not gonna calculate the parlay
odds on the show because it takes too much time. However,
it will be based on those three odds. After the
win on Friday, we are now plus three point seven
to four units for the season after two plays, so
you know, long, long way to go, but it's nice
to start a little bit ahead. And that's the parlay
for today, So one more time before we go out.
Tigers plus one and a half Marlin's money line, Blue
Jays minus one and a half. That is your parlay
for the show. Remember, head on over to wager talk
dot com. We've got the great double playspe special on
all of our pages. You can pick any two of
the handicappers that you see on your screen right now
for the price of one, and we will be back
to talk more bases with you nine am tomorrow morning,
right here on the wager Talk to YouTube channel.
Speaker 2: See you guys then,