Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It is Wednesday. It's time for
full court press.
Speaker 2: Rob.
Speaker 1: Last night was the first night in a while that
I landed on the wrong ones, meaning.
Speaker 2: It had I played more, it would have it would
have gone better for me.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 1: I think I was like three and one on the
plays I left off, and of course the uh the
plays I ended up on were zero and two. I
always find it funny. I'll get your rebuttal to this.
I find Listen, I get it. People are gonna get
you know, I've been winning for like six straight weeks.
Speaker 2: Yet the people.
Speaker 1: That bought the five percent play last night are gonna
get pissed. It's just the business we're in. I do
find it a little funny that, like people lose their
minds over getting blown out like on a play. Like
for me, listen, you're gonna be right in this business,
and you're gonna be wrong, Like you're not gonna be
right every time. In my opinion, I would rather get
dusted by forty like Notre Dame did last night, then
lose one. I felt like I should win and like
get hooked by a half point or lose on a
couple free throws or like earlier this year, I had
a big play on Boston College plus seven and a half.
Speaker 2: They go to overtime lose by eight.
Speaker 1: Like, just being straight up wrong like I was last
night is so much easier to stomach for me than
it is like just the the excruciating like loss where
your handicap was correct and you feel and you really
should have won. Yet I find that's not the case
for the for our buyers, because I got it. I
got my share of hate DMS last night for the
Nordre Dame play.
Speaker 3: Well, all right, well you know what I was on
the other end of that last day, because as most know,
it'd have been on the package. I have not played,
but I don't know maybe one handful of three percent
plays in college hoop this year, and last night I
dove into that pool. With the Iowa State team total
over seventy six and a half get to seventy five,
and I have just been Now that you bring it up,
I mean, I don't know one hundred and summer days
into college basketball, and I think I had had fourteen
fifteen consecutive weeks of winning and then the last seven
days I'm being hooked, as you called it, or getting
so close and not getting over because the mislayups, miss retrows, whatever,
so it is more excruciating to lose it that way.
The Iowa State game was painful last night. I wasn't
even really close on the play I left here for
our parlay. Michigan team total over never really had a chance,
so that was a bad call on my part. But
I was up. I tell you, I'm one of those guys.
It's been going really good. And again, Adam, I think
we have to just reiterate we bet these games every
single day of the year. I mean, my accounts wind
up going down the same anybody else as we're lucky.
I had a lot of equity built up so far
this season, up until the last I would say seven
eight days. But I was up at three forty eight
this morning. It's like when things are just you know,
when when that one ball, when that one layup, when
that one three pointer, like Milisicivitch had a three pointer
at the wire last night, they could have sent Iowas
date over. When they're falling, great, when they're not falling,
you wind up getting up early and saying, listen, we
got to get back to work here and that's kind
of the way I treated this day, three forty eight,
this morning, wake up, get in this office, and I'm like,
I got to get back to winning myself some money here.
So we're back at it again, you know, to the
guys that are on the package, it's been so profitable
over the course of the last two and a half months.
I don't know. I get maybe you come in one
day and it was not good for either one of
us yesterday, but that type of day has been so
few and far between over the course of one hundred
plus days of college basketball.
Speaker 1: Then, you know, yeah, And I've been basically saying, you know,
I for me, it does like after that happens, I
typically will I'll find something to switch up. So for me,
the last like couple of weeks, I've I've have had
very good results sort of trimming the card down to
those couple of plays.
Speaker 2: And I've even texted you.
Speaker 1: You know, thank god it in play plays three through
seven today or four through eight right like it.
Speaker 2: You know, we've talked about it.
Speaker 1: And so I tend to tend to switch it up,
like after a night like last night, oh and two,
especially with a result like dorder Dame which just ended
up not really like being close. But then you know,
we talked about Baylor on the show yesterday, that one
just never came back into range for me.
Speaker 2: Now, in hindsight, they end up covering all numbers.
Speaker 1: But I do think I do think you keep yourself
disciplined to a number like long term that that's gonna
make you're gonna do better than just like, Okay, well
I love Baylor, and ten never came back around, so
you know, what the hell with it, Let's just take eight, like, yeah,
it worked out last night, but long term that that's
probably not probably not gonna work out. The last thing
I'll say about like Notre Dame getting blown out by
by forty is like, listen, it was you know, it's
I look to play against Duke coming off of Michigan
State when knowing they have Virginia Tech on the weekend,
and you know the fact that they were on the
road in what should have been like a sleepy spot
for them. Listen, Notre Dame comes out, can't get a
three to fall, has a couple of calls go against
them in the early going. Shrewsbury picks up an early
technical because he's basically like he basically walked up to
the ref and told the ref like, Hey, if you're
gonna call the game like this, I have no chance.
Speaker 2: I was basically, you know, reading his lips.
Speaker 1: He got teed up four minutes into the game and
he's like, if you're not gonna call that the same way, like,
we have literally no shot. And that's just how it went.
So I typically don't dwell on plays either way.
Speaker 2: Win or lose. When we win, we move on. I
you know, but I just found it. I don't know.
Speaker 1: I don't understand why people lose their shit over a
losing by forty Like to me, when you lose by
a half point and you should have won, it is
so much worse.
Speaker 2: But anyway, wanted to we address listen.
Speaker 1: I don't know if the other shows do this, but
every single day, the first five minutes of our show
is sort of talking about the day previous because that's
what you guys asked us to do. So here to
recap it top Foho and two for me last night,
and we look to regroup today. Let's get into the
feature game today. Robbino I was at the first meeting
between these two teams at Madison Square garden.
Speaker 2: What an electric environment it was.
Speaker 1: Saint John's and their fans showed out for that game,
way more Saint John's fans than I expected to be, because,
of course we know over the years, even Rick Patino,
you like your quotes, right, what did he say, Well,
there's gonna be ten thousand of us and nine thousand
of them at the garden And it wasn't that. It
was all Saint John's fans, a tremendous atmosphere, and Saint
John's played as they played their game to perfection in
that game.
Speaker 2: What do I mean by that?
Speaker 1: They in my opinion, they took Seaton Hall's blueprint. You know,
we've we've talked on this show about how successful Seaton
Hall has been against Yukon over the years, and that's
basically what Saint John's did in that game. Ball pressure
right off the bat, Yukon couldn't get into the flow
of their offense at all, and it totally disrupted the
game to the point where then Saint John's could really
feed off of the crowd.
Speaker 2: You know, they just had Yukon flustered.
Speaker 1: Rob for lack of a better way to describe it,
Yukon was flustered right off the bat and never could
really settle into the game.
Speaker 2: Now that's we like we've seen.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna make the parallel Yukon Seaton Hall Yukon Saint
John's because of course we've seen Yukon strugg with Seaton
Hall for a couple of years. We've actually now seen
Yukon struggle with Saint John's for a couple of years.
Rob because last year Saint John's got the better of
this matchup, and even that really really good, dominant Yukon
team that won the year before, I believe their toughest
game on their stretch. Of those I think they they
won every game by double digits down the stretch except
for the Saint John's game in the Big East Tournament
at Madison's Square Garden, where Saint John's was playing for
a tournament bid, and they were right there in that game.
So here's the sort of conundrum here. You now have
Saint John's being good priced into the number. This is
very similar to when Yukon played Seaton Hall earlier this
year and they were only a five and a half
point road favorite, but Seaton Hall ended up covering that number.
So my question to you is is Saint John's just
do they match up so well here with Yukon that
they're the right side or are you on the other
side where you're like man, Yukon's awfully cheap at home
in this spot.
Speaker 3: Yeah, a little of both, right, I mean for Yukon,
I would like to do you know what went wrong
the first time round? Before Yukon they get beat on
the free throw line by seventeen points twenty two to five.
Saint John's outscored Yukon on the free throw line in
that game thirty one attempts to twelve, and then over
twenty one percent of Yukon's possessions turned into turnovers. And
Danny Hurley as well as they played Villino against Villanova
the other night, which was really a low price to
lay with Yukon one and a half two points against Nova,
we did cash that one. Danny Hurley even mentioned after
that game, you know, team was great. Turnovers reared their
ugly head again. Those are the things that Saint John's
presents to Yukon that they'll have to handle this time. Right.
It's the physical toughness that Yukon has to stand up to,
and it the turnover issues because Saint John's defensively is
predicated on forcing you to turn the ball over so
you can you know, it's funny Hurley. How about Hurley
and Mick Cronin. I'll throw him in the in the
loop here. Both heavily critical of their teams after poor performances,
and both of the teams responded. Yukon responded, the performance
u Kon had against Villanova the other night was really
good up twenty one, second half looked like Villanova never
had a chance, easy cover. And for UCLA ever since
McK cronin got nationally crucified UCLA's come out and trash
two teams in a row. So teams that are responding
to coaches criticism, teams that are good that are responding
to it. I think you kind of at home will
respond here again. Saint John's doesn't do an awful lot
really well, Adam, and they're not especially deep talent wise,
but what they do well, they do really really well.
The first game, Yukon didn't let it get out of
hand tempo wise, there's really nothing, like I say, beyond
the free throws in the turnovers that caused Yukon to
lose that game, and I would think the home atmosphere.
I would think their ability to shoot threes. Remember, Yukon's
got three guys. They shoot forty percent from beyond the arc.
Saint John's doesn't have that their shooting ability, and they're
statistically the better defensive team as far as field goal
percentage allowed two point three points, et cetera. So get
to the free throw line a little bit more, be
a little more physical Yukon's deeper. I do think Yukon
wins this game, but you're right it would be I
think it would be four losses in a row to
Saint John's tonight if they lose this one as well.
But I think that Stores is going to be ready
for this gamble and Yukon probably comes out on top.
That would be my look. I also tell you the truth.
I took a long, long look at the under here.
I think could be a defensive battle. It's going up
to one forty six and a half. Someone forty seven's
out there one forty seven and a half. I see
a couple as I look now, maybe an under in
this instance, the game went over the first time round Yukon.
The thing that stopped me at him really quick. Here
last night games, Yukon has played eight and one over
the total and their team total is eight and one
to the over last night. Scorting hasn't been the problem.
It's been the defensive end, like Danny Hurley has said consistently,
and I think they probably show up the way they
did against Philanova here tonight.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we have so, Richie Action says in Vino we
trust best hoops Kapper.
Speaker 2: Thank you, Richie.
Speaker 1: You appreciate the encouragement there and the donation to the chat.
You know, see, as as much as I think Saint
John's matches up well with Yukon with their ability, like
we pretty much now know that Yukon struggles a little
bit with teams that can really get after them from
on the defensive end, put pressure on their guards, force,
you know, force Demriy to have to handle the ball
a little bit. He had a really bad game against
Saint John's from a turnover standpoint, that that is definitely
the path to defeat this Yukon team. But you kind
is still a very good basketball team and they still
have what I consider to be, if they're not the
best coaching staff in the country, rob they're certainly up there.
You know, Danny Hurley and staff is as good as
it gets and at some point, I, you know, I
do think he's probably gonna make the adjustments to uh,
you know, to offset some of the issues they've had
with all the ball pressure against teams like Seaton Hall
and Saint John's. Now, you know, Yukon was kind of
even even with Saint John's playing well, Yukon was right
there in that game. Saint John's made a couple of
big shots late to sort of put it over the edge.
It if you go back to the game against Seaton Hall,
and the only reason I keep bringing up the Seaton
Hall game is because it is the true, like if
we were to look for another comp game, Rob you
love to talk about, you know, comparison type games to
the first meeting with Seaton Hall or the first meeting
with Saint John's, it is that Seaton Hall game. Because
of course Shaheen Holloway is all about like on the
ball pressure, making you uncomfortable and is really not going
to beat you at the offensive end. You know, that
ended up being a sixty nine to sixty four Yukon
win on the road at the Prudential center. But I
think Yukon led if I'm going off memory, by as
much as eighteen in the second half of that game
and really just kind of like, you know, missed feat
They couldn't hit a three, they went to sleep, and
suddenly Seaton Hall was like right there down one.
Speaker 2: That's one thing that I don't think is going to
happen tonight.
Speaker 1: I just don't think after losing the first meeting, Hurley
is just not going to let this team like not
step on their throat if given the chance.
Speaker 2: And so for me, my number here is seven point six.
Speaker 1: It's absolutely enough to justify playing Yukon at the opener
of five. I haven't I haven't looked at where it
is since we hopped on the show. But for me,
I do still see those redeeming matchup qualities where I'm
not going to make the bet on Yukon here because
I do think Saint John's has those matchup advantages to
at least stay in this game. If I was forced
to play it, I'm definitely playing Yukon. And to your
point about the under rob it, I think if Yukon
does bring that intensity, they are probably keeping Saint John's
from scoring a little bit. Whereas we know that Yukon
is going to struggle a little bit with Saint John's
in the way they like to pressure the ball, So
maybe you are onto something with an under in that game.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and real quick, I'll just say one last thing,
beyond Bobby Hurley not allowing Yukon or at least having
game plans devised a you know, I think even the
same weight needs to be put on the Yukon players.
It was important to me Saturday to see how they
responded to coach criticism, and they did, and so the
team knows they're better than what they've performed, and the
team wants this revenge game against Saint John's. It's approving ground.
I don't know, Adam. Edge of Ford gets into foul
trouble and Saint John's to me is toast in any game.
I don't know that they can come back off of that.
And Yukon does have ten fouls to give there. They
should play them a little more physical here today. It's
a got to have to because edge of four really
was a deciding factor in the first game.
Speaker 1: All right, let's move it along, Let's go to Garth here,
he says, I wasn't keeping track with this is good Garth,
He says, six, and oh run on chap plays three
and zher on picking bottom dwellers. Oh yeah, he did
have a Garth did win his over in that seat
San Jose State Air Force game yesterday, which I actually
think air Force ended up covering if you go back
to the conversation we had about that, when I think
we kind of said dog and over.
Speaker 2: Certainly the over over got there easily, Garth.
Speaker 1: Maybe I'll throw you in the Maybe I'll throw you
in the parlay today and make it a three teamer,
just to just to switch that up a little bit.
But let's see if we can. Let's see if we
like your side here first. If Rob and I agree
on your side, maybe that's what we'll do. So what
Garth says is, let's try it again. Thoughts on the
Citadel plus fifteen and a half against Furman. Citadel won
the first meeting seventy seven to seventy five in overtime. Yeah,
they did win the first meeting in overtime.
Speaker 2: And that was kind of a.
Speaker 1: Historic result for Citadel to win that game and to
beat Furman. I do believe that they had so they
they already had started to turn the corner. So if
you go back to the beginning of the year, I
was very much out on Citadel doing anything. I think
I said that, you know, I went as far as
to say that this team might not win a conference game.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: They hadn't want to conference game last year, and on paper,
their roster was heavily like non D one talent, which
caused me to, you know, to make that assumption that
they might be the worst team in the league. Two
things have happened for that not to be the case.
Now they're still near the bottom. But six and ten
is massively impressive for this Citadel team this season in
conference play, coming from where they were last year in
conference play and what they were projected to be this year.
But I think there's two reasons for that. One, I
think they are better than anyone anticipated, including the market.
So if you've been betting Citadel to this point, you're
probably doing yourself, probably doing pretty well because they've been
underdogs in pretty much every game and a cover machine.
But the other thing is they are playing into as
bad of a SoCon as you've had in recent memory.
Speaker 2: It's it's very Nji t.
Speaker 1: Esque and the way they're doing well in the America
East this year, Well, the America East is as bad
as it's been maybe since it's in and the SoCon
is is not far behind. I mean, you've got some
teams rob like East Tennessee and Mercer who are having
nice seasons. But you know, Samford ran this league with
Bucky McMillan for years. They've taken a step back. Just
nine and seven in the league. Chattanooga was a team
that many thought would win this league. This year they
are also six and ten, lost some key players at
the outset and have just not been the same team.
VMI is a bad team. NC Greensboro is a bad team.
Western Carolina is a bad team. So you know, that's
kind of the thing with citadel I think is you
know they've they're equal parts taking advantage of playing weaker
teams this year, but they've also improved. Now you can't
argue with that first score, like they beat this Furman team,
but they also beat them on their home floor. And
now they head to Furman. You know, Citadels two and
eleven on the road this year, and they head to
a Furman team that I I guess I'll lean on
you here a little bit, Robbie, because at one point
I was going to make a case that Furman was improving.
You know, if you go back to the beginning of
the season, this team turned the ball over a ton.
Speaker 2: It did not look like a Bob Richie type Furman team.
Speaker 1: But when you look at their results over the over
the month of February, they've lost four of six and
they haven't been very impressive. So is Garth onto something
taking the points here with a Citadel team that already
hasn't win over the Paladins this season.
Speaker 3: It's a tough call. The thing that would probably lean
me toward Garth is the number fifteen and a half.
But I do think Furman's gonna win this game. Remember
the first time around Adam Ferber and I remember watching
the Samford game and they beat Samford in that game.
But they played a lot of games without Thomas and Bowser,
and Citadel was one of the games that they played
without Asa Thomas and without Bowser. And now that they're
both back, you would have expected your last point that
they would be on the move now, climbing the standings.
And yet you know the first couple of games when
asa Thomas came back, I was like, well, maybe he
just needs to get reacclimated. He's been out so long,
but they still haven't been churning out wins. Now they're
two of their last three. Maybe things are going right now.
But fifteen and a half is a little bit shaky.
I will say this too. First game Furman without those
two guys held a forty to twenty eight lead at halftime.
They were up twelve in that game that they lost
in ot so they let that slip away. But the
lineup is whole, which scares me, especially at so Con
tournament time, because when I watched the Samford game a
few games back that the broadcast team was alluding to
how much better Bob Ritchie's team would be when Thomas
and Bowser got back, et cetera, et cetera. It hasn't
quite developed yet, but I feel like it's going to
He's too good of a coach. They probably have as
much talent as anybody. Again, the only thing that would
scare me if I was betting Furman would be your
laying too much. So that's Garth's point. Let's take Citadel
with fifteen and a half better than that, though, let's
let's get off of the side for a second here.
I think this total gets over. People have bet it
that way. It's over one thirty eight. We're looking at
one forty one and a half one forty two at
this point in time. The first game had one thirty
four at the end of regulation without Asa, Thomas and
Bowser involved. Furman should score here at home. Citadels should
do enough to help out. I just don't see how
this game doesn't make one forty three. This may make
my card for clients here today, this total over. I
don't want to let the one forty one and a
half slip away, so it would be sooner rather than
later if it gets there. But I do see Furman
as a team now that probably is easily I'll say
easily a mid seventies type scoring team and above now
that they're fully healthy for like the last five or
six games, and we'll see where the Son tournament goes.
But I can't disagree with Garth, but I would say
my stronger feeling is on total going over. All.
Speaker 1: Right, Garth, Let's let's do it. We got to get
some we got to switch the mojo up in the parlay.
I wanted to do a three teamer. Anyway, today we
had we hit that three teamer with Brian Power, put
ourselves ahead. Haven't won one since. And my number here
on Citadel's is fourteen point one. So I've that to
me and that right there is I trust that more
because we're at the point in the year where I've
pretty much like sucked any priors out for the most part,
Like I have priors weighted very low in my in
my figures now for because we're in the middle of
you know, we're late February, so like at this point
you really are what you are like looking at, like
what a team was projected to be is is not
as relevant anymore. And the reality is Citadel's played like
pretty good basketball for this league. You know, they have
the win over chat Nuga, they have the win they've
you know, even in their last couple of games, they
took Samford, who I still think is a pretty good
team in this league to a three point final. You know,
even you know, the Mercer game was very close to
this number. They ended up losing it by sixteen. But
like for me, like Mercer has has been far better
than Furman has this year, and I think even with
the guys back, I still have Mercer, you know, quite
a cut above Furman in my my power ratings for
this league. So let's do it fifteen and a half.
I'm at fourteen point one here. That'll be the first
leg of the Parleague. We're gonna throw Garth in the
Parleague with the Citadel. But he said that the Cellar
Dwellers have been hitting for him, So let's take to
the points of the Citadel. They won the first meeting.
We only need for them to keep it within fifteen. Here,
I'm in agreement. I think it's a better game. And
and here's the thing Furman is not.
Speaker 2: Really they don't They don't really.
Speaker 1: Do things right now to inspire confidence winning games by
fifteen or more.
Speaker 2: They turn the ball over a lot.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of uh, what I think the term
when I was playing basketball a long long time ago
is game slippage, rob is what Furman has.
Speaker 2: They make a lot of like what feels to be
like unforced mistakes.
Speaker 1: And it is very difficult to cover sixteen if you're
gonna kind of, you know, keep keep teams in the
game that way.
Speaker 2: But Jacob says, we just we just jinxd Garth. Well,
if you think we jinxd.
Speaker 1: Garth, then then Furman probably scored a ton of points,
so maybe you lean toward robs Over if that's the case.
But we're gonna use Garth's leg in the parlay, so
that'll be the first.
Speaker 2: Leg you can blame me.
Speaker 1: It's easier to blame me anyway because I'm co signing it.
So we'll say the Citadel plus fifteen and a half.
At the very least. I do think there's like a
little bit of a numerical edge there. I think I
think it should be those are to fourteen, so fifteen
and a half.
Speaker 2: It is.
Speaker 1: All right, We're moving right along. Let's go to another
game here. Let's get back to the super chat. We
got a couple more starred. Mad Max appreciate the donation.
This was one I was very interested to talk about.
Actually almost made this our feature game, so I'm glad
someone brought it up. Mad Max says Texas has a
strong front court, can go toe to toe on the
glass with Florida. They're sixth in the nation for adjusted
offensive efficiency. Hold your nose, Texas plus six in the
heaven six point five or some plus sevens I think
we're there as we came onto the show. I don't
know if it's moved off of seven or the team total?
Is the team total safer? Max, I'm with you on
the handicap. I definitely, But the thing is, and I
Rob will probably make this point. I won't steal his thunder.
I'll just tee him up. If they don't follow Florida,
they probably hang around. But if the titus is like
in foul trouble and not on the court, then you
might have trouble with Florida's front court and the concern.
Speaker 2: I don't know, Rob, Florida's starting to make some shots.
Speaker 1: Do you think that this is like a don't poke
the bear moment for Florida because their guards are starting
to play well too.
Speaker 2: Talk to me about Texas Florida.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Well, the first thing I'll say is six and
a half is no longer available. I'm looking at five
and a halfs now.
Speaker 2: Wow, Okay, so someone else last Texas look at that.
Speaker 3: Five and a half just popped sixes down from six
and a half. There's a one six and a half
or forget that. Yeah, five and a half is the
board keeps switching here, so again ridding that window where
action is action is coming across the screen here. So yeah,
five and a half. A lot of Texas love here,
and the point is well made because you want to
have a team that can deal with Florida's front court obviously,
and then the back court. Even with Florida having both
of their guys Boogie Flander, Xavi and Lee playing better
in the backcourt, I think Texas backcourt still matches up
fairly decent as well. It's not like that's a blowout
situation in favor of Florida, but those guys make the
Florida engine really rev on all eight cylinders when they're
playing good. I think what's probably sold short a little
bit here, Adam is Florida because they score so many points.
What gets lost in the shuffle is how good they
are defensively. They're the number one defensive efficiency team inside
the Southeastern Conference, which is a huge accolade because there's
so many good offenses inside this league. They don't let
you score at the rim. Texas will probably have to
score at the rim. And two Mad Max, I think
it was to his point Texas does have interior players
Voca Titus, especially that can't finish at the rim against
these guys, but it's not going to be easy. So
the total here, I'm gonna get off track just a
little bit because we've mentioned that a lot of money
loves Texas, and I'm not going to talk anybody off
of Texas. The total here at one fifty seven and
a half would have to include a ton of pace,
and it's at this time of year. This time of
year a lot of times will get me into trouble.
I'll put it that way. Because the total is better,
I like overs, and the defenses start to clamp down
because seedings are so important now as games are running
out heading into conference tournament time, whether it be postseason
resumes or whether it be conference tournament seatings. For Texas
in a four way tie at eight and six, the
game does become huge for them. I mean, if you're
looking for a situational meaningful mindset, focus, motivation, all that
type of stuff, the exterior stuff, Texas has all of
that here. Florida's got a two game lead inside the league.
If they blow one, it really it doesn't matter. They're
still the one seed. Could it affect them from being
on the one line tournament time, maybe, but it doesn't
mean you have to win by six. So all this
to say that maybe the total is a tick too
high here at one fifty eight. I don't know that
I'm willing to bet it because the offenses are explosive
and the tempo could get pretty high in this one.
But I would expect both of these teams to bring
a little bit of defense to the to the table here,
and as you said, Adam evoke the tightest foul trouble
just cross your fingers and hope he doesn't see the
bench because Sean Miller doesn't really have a guy to
match up with any of those Florida front court players
once if you ask to leave the game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the whistle is so is going to
be so impactful to like both side and total here
because it's like if it becomes I mean, it could
theoretically become a filefest and then you're you're talking about
you know, if both teams are just living at the
free throw line, it's probably gonna go over even though
even at at that high number of like fifty seven
fifty eight, because I do think Texas probably scores some
points in this game. That so the thing is if
Texas is taking money, I think that would correlate to
the over a little bit because I don't think Texas
is covering seven and a half. Forget seven and a half,
they're certainly not covering five and a half or you know,
if they're not scoring the basketball, because like Florida, we
know that they can score even if they're not hitting shots,
and then when they are hitting shots, they can really score.
Because this was an offense that was still rating near
the top top of you know, many efficiency sort of
leader boards earlier this year when Xavier and Lee and
Boogie Flann were both like in terrible shooting slums, and
now they're starting to shoot the ball a little bit.
So I don't have like tons of faith in Texas
like being able to just get like stop after stop
against Florida. But I do think that they can score,
which makes me lean toward the over. But if I
had to, you know, my number was was seven point one.
So I was right on market here initially, and that's
why I kind of like moved on from this game.
I don't have any interest in like punching back though
with Florida, because my initial lean was Texas at the
number of seven, So like, just because it's moved a
point and a half doesn't really make me want to
go with the other side. And I do think that
in a game like this, you will absolutely see Florida
money come in at five and a half. There is
gonna be a segment of the market that is going
to see Florida minus five and a half and will
pounce at that. So I wouldn't be surprised if that
ends up back at like six and a half relatively soon,
maybe it even gets back to seven. I would be
on the Longhorns because Rob, as you know, if you've
watched this show, I've been pretty pro Texas for the
last couple months. I took Texas City. So here's the thing, though,
you know, I took Texas now they were on the road.
I took Texas plus seven against Kentucky. They're hang around
and win that game. So I guess now they're getting
seven at home against Florida. But Florida is like much
much better, Like this is a much much better team.
So I think it comes down to, like how much
you're waiting home court here. It's kind of a tricky one.
I leaned toward the longhorns. I guess I agree with
that money move, but you're not gonna see me bet it.
I would probably need more like eight and a half
or nine to bet Texas here at seven six, six
and a half. It's just gonna be a lean for me. Okay,
let's continue on. I will go to.
Speaker 2: Rob.
Speaker 1: Have you ever eate alligator? The chat has has gone
off tangent. I didn't love it. I had it like once.
But maybe it's because I had it like fried and
like bredded or something, and it just kind of tasted
like anything else that was put into like a deep frier.
Speaker 2: I don't know. It didn't do.
Speaker 1: I didn't feel like I had to go get alligator
again after I tried it, So maybe I need to
Maybe I need to have it prepared differently. Yeah, that's see,
that's what right here? Joe Joe, Yeah, Joe Joyner, that's
the same thing. He goes, I had gator bites to
taste like rubbery chicken. Yeah, that's that's where I'm at.
Speaker 3: Can't it wouldn't buy you be an expert in how
to prepare alligator.
Speaker 1: Probably that seems like it's up his alley. Maybe, Yeah,
I don't know. If Bayous he might be in here
listing or whatever. But yeah, by you let us know
if you've ever made alligator and if you if that's
a you know, Andy Lang is here, he said, He said,
he can't be breaded, properly, seasoned and grilled. It's delicious. Okay,
I'll give it. Okay, he's back. Bayou's back.
Speaker 2: He says.
Speaker 1: Uh, it's about the sauce. Yeah, okay, all right, let's uh,
all right, let's let's go to this one. We had
a couple of sorry, I don't mean to get off
tangent here. We got an eleven a m tip today.
Robbino out in the Patriot League, and we have had
some success talking Patrio League basketball on the show. There's
quite a few people that have brought this up. This
was not supposed to be an eleven am game. I
believe this was.
Speaker 2: I think this one was moved up a couple of times.
Speaker 1: I know it was like a few days back, it
was a three o'clock start. Now I don't know if
it was moved up from three or they were going
to originally play at three o'clock game today, but now they're.
Speaker 2: Playing at eleven am.
Speaker 1: So Colin Gregory says, buck Nell or nothing at the number.
Speaker 2: I kind of agree.
Speaker 1: So this opened Army minus two, it's moved to Army
minus three and a half. I agree with the sentiment
that it does feel like you're getting a little value
with buck Nell at the number of three and a half.
But then there's also the problem that, like, these are
just two bad basketball teams, and from just an effort standpoint,
I do like I've liked Army from an effort standpoint
and a game in a game out basis more than
I've liked buck Noll. Now these two teams are playing
for something Robino. In the Patriot League, everyone makes the
conference tournament and they are host site games, which means
the opening round of the Patriot League tournament is going
to be seven hosting ten and eight hosting nine. So
you really, if you're in that bottom group and you
have to play in the opening round, obviously you would
much rather have a home game.
Speaker 2: And both of these teams still.
Speaker 1: Control their own destiny to hosting a game in the
seven to eight window. I think there's even a scenario
where they could if they win out. Either of these
teams win out, they could win their way, eh, It
might be tough for them to win their way out
of seven through ten, but they can certainly win their
way into hosting and opening round games. So it is
a game of importance here. This is at West Point
at eleven am, which means it goes up in twenty
three minutes.
Speaker 2: I'm with Colin.
Speaker 1: If I was absolutely forced abt this game, it'd be
Bucknell plus the points. But I haven't set like. Neither
team gives me a warm, fuzzy feeling. So my question
to you is, what about the total anything for an
eleven am start down in West Point.
Speaker 3: Well, the first thing for me, and this has nothing
to do with fundamentals, but situationally, if I'm going to
play either of these teams at eleven am, it's going
to be the Service Academy. I gotta figure they're wide
awake at eleven am. Buck Nell could sleep through a
half at eleven am, so I would look maybe army early.
And the first time around was eighty seven, eighty seven,
eighty four something like that in overtime, but it was
eighty eighty at the end of regulation, one hundred and
sixty points by these two teams both shot it well.
Another team plays defense, so we're staring at one forty
two and a half year. I can understand the movement
up in the total open one forty one, even seeing
a a couple of stray one forty threes kickup now
as we get closer to game time. So I wouldn't
just agree with that. And if I'm going to somewhat
lean Army, I guess team total wise, might I'd be
more favorable to taking the Navy to the Army side,
excuse me, team total over. But I think you wouldn't
want to exclude buck Nell from this, even though, like
I say, there is some thought in my mind that
buck Nell could not be all their energy wise first
half of this game. Now, to your point, both tied
at five and eleven inside the league, both need to
win the Holy Crosses with them at five and eleven,
so certainly huge game if you're trying to get a
home spot inside the conference tournament. But I would think
the game probably goes over based off of what we
saw the first time around, and based off the fact
that neither team has played much deepense so far this season,
and a half doesn't seem like too steep of a
hill to climb, and last thing here is we saw
overtime the first time she play over. At least she
got overtime in your pocket here, it could happen again.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know what, I kind of I think I'm
gonna just back out of making an opinion on the side.
Speaker 2: You make a good point.
Speaker 1: The eleven am start probably does benefit Army just I mean, yes,
they're probably more rigid in their daily schedule, but also
you know, being at home when when these games and
the scheduling and stuff gets moved around, and I feel
like it typically is going to affect the traveling team
a little bit more of the road team, whereas Army
they're gonna go about their day and just sort of
move stuff up. They're still you know, sleeping in their
own beds and stuff like that. Neither of these teams
can test shot very well like you're gonna. So that's
the thing that helps Army out big time here is
Army does not get to the rim or get to
the free throw line. They are very jump shot reliant,
but buck Nell will will pretty much give you like
whatever you want from a from a jump shot standpoint,
Army is probably gonna get quite a few open threes here. Remember,
this Bucknell team last year was so good because Noah
Williamson was a generational talent, rim defender.
Speaker 2: Post scorer.
Speaker 1: Like I remember games last year where Williamson would would
be not be on the court, you would get in
foul trouble or so on and so forth, and Bucknell
would be a completely different team for the worse obviously.
And I think that's just what we've seen play out
in like long form this year. Is this Bucknell team
had last year, they just had a insane talent that
could almost dominate the Patriot League on his own. Right,
Noah Williamson, He's now at Alabama, right, Rob, Like, how
often can you say that, Oh, Bucknell, they lost their
best player to Bama, right, Like, it just doesn't really
happen that often from this league. So again, Bucknell is
sort of regressed into just a you know, a sort
of nothing bad basketball team.
Speaker 2: Army is kind of a nothing bad.
Speaker 1: Basketball team too, but they will play hard, and one
thing Army will do is just jack shots up. So
they could they really like ramp up the pace of
this game on their own, because like you'll see Army
get down the floor and sometimes it's Ryan Curry just
pulling a three. It's like, you know they they are
not shy when it comes to shooting now, making them
a whole different story, like that's why they're five and
eleven and near the bottom of their league. But they
will the shot volume will probably be there, and in
a game like this, I do I just I neither
team block shots or contest shots. So if you get
some shots falling early, this one could get up near
the total of last game, which was I think in
the one sixties, and.
Speaker 2: You only need low one. You only need low one forties.
Speaker 1: To get it done here, So I can't disagree with Colin,
though if you from a numbers perspective, I do think
three and a half is forcing you to pay a
premium to back Army. But Rob, I also kind of
agree with you where maybe the premium is warranted. So
I'm gonna like take myself out of the side and
I'll lean toward the over. If you feel inclined to
have yourself some eleven am hoop action on a on
a Wednesday afternoon, All right, let's I am gonna give out.
Speaker 2: A client play for the for the parlay, So if you.
Speaker 1: Want me to go first, I'll go first, it's up
to uh, it's up to you if you want to go,
or I can go.
Speaker 2: If you want a second to.
Speaker 1: Think about it, I'll throw my game out, but I
have two, so I don't want to steal yours.
Speaker 2: So if you know you can go.
Speaker 3: First, No, go ahead, because I would have more than
one anyway, So go ahead.
Speaker 2: All right. So you know, again, we literally never script
the show.
Speaker 1: We come on and say all right, we got a
feature game, and then it really is just off the
off the dome for the next hour.
Speaker 2: We go based on where you guys want to go.
Speaker 1: I have two plays locked in so far for today,
so I'm just gonna give. I don't think either has
been asked about in the chat, so I'm just gonna give.
You know, I'll give one of them out. Let's talk
Arkansas and Texas A and M. Robino. I'm laying the
points with the Razorbacks here. I laid seven and a half.
I will put seven and a half minus one twenty
in the parlay because I do see that it's tipped
up a little bit.
Speaker 2: I love.
Speaker 1: I think the Razorbacks absolutely destroy Texas A and M.
Tonight we talked about Arkansas over the weekend, Kelly brought
up the Arkansas Missouri game. I said, the only way
I could play that, and the only way I'm playing
Arkansas games right now is Arkansas or Pass. We've been
talking about them for a couple, like a couple months now,
I think, I said, after Brian Power and I went
to the Arkansas Michigan State game first week of the season,
I said, this is a team that's going to continue
to get better. They're gonna be a team that in
February I'm gonna want to be on it. And so
far there against the spread record in February is very good.
I got a little bit scared off by the number
on Saturday, and I'm glad I did, because of course
that game, Arkansas led by fourteen with two minutes to
go and ended up only winning by eight I believe,
I think it was like eight and a half or nine.
So Missouri uh snuck in and back doored them right
at the end in a game that Arkansas had a
fourteen point lead with two minutes to go. I think
this matchup is better for Arkansas than Missouri. Was this
the Bucky ball style? I think Arkansas is going to
have a much easier time scoring the basketball they they
than they theoretically should have against the Dennis gate Zone.
So it's like to me, okay, so here's here's just
a little comparison. Right, Arkansas was home over the weekend,
laying more than this in what.
Speaker 2: Was probably a worst matchup.
Speaker 1: Now they're still home where we know the home road
splits are considerable this year and historically, and they're laying
less point against Yeah, what maybe is a little bit
better of a team, but what should really be a
better matchup for the Razorbacks. So I think if Arkansas
gets that fourteen point lead in this one there, not
giving a background Veino, I think they're gonna score potentially
at will. I'm laying it with Arkansas, but do you
have any interest on the total there?
Speaker 3: I think it's a little bit and it's hard to
say it's high in an Arkansas game, but with A
and M combined, it is kind of high. So I
would probably lay off, but I would not disagree at all.
What we're seeing out of Arkansas right now is as
good as I mean. Florida is obviously on a huge role,
so I won't say Florida's probably been a little bit better.
But Arkansas Florida right now playing like the two best
teams in that particular conference. So you're not going to
get any argument out of me against Arkansas. Here. They
had a rough situational play against the Miszoo last game,
and Maszoo did sneak in under the number. But credit
to Arkansas for coming back home and winning that game
off of the one seventeen one to fifteen doublet loss.
So yeah, I would not argue against Arkansas in any way,
shape or form. I would just be a little lenient
of playing or a little LERI excuse me, a little
leri of playing a total in that price range with
these two.
Speaker 1: All right, we are gonna let's do this. We'll mad
Max as a donation. So let's go to his play
and we'll go We'll go to mad Max, he says Veno,
specifically Veno, So I'm gonna let you kick this one off.
We're gonna stay an We're gonna stay in the SEC.
I think this is a good transition here. We'll go
ahead and stay in the SEC. Mad Max's Veno. I
love the Alabama team. Total tonight, boy over ninety four
and a half.
Speaker 2: That is an awfully big number.
Speaker 1: But then again, maybe it's warranted because can Alabama name
their score tonight against Mississippi State, rob What do you think?
Speaker 3: Well, generally they could name their their side of the
scoreboard against anybody. Really, they're gonna play at that speed,
They're gonna play, They're gonna make their shots. What's what's
interesting here, Adam, is the money toward Mississippi State and
people who obviously think that Mississippi State has turned some
form of a corner at this point in time. I'm
not so sure that I agree, But here's what I
will say. Chris Jans has this team playing slightly better
defense that haven't played really good defense all season long. But
I would agree in the fact that it's going to
get out of hand for them, and it could get
out of hand quickly as far as point production for
Alabama is concerned, if you're playingside, you have to try
and guess if Mississippi State is going to match points
with Alabama. But Mississippi State's going to do zero defensively,
even though they've been playing better lately, They're going to
do zero defensively. That's going to deter Alabama from scoring
points in this game. Biggest questions you have here. Again,
you don't worry about scoring opportunities, You're going to get those.
You don't worry about Alabama reaching high eighties. You're probably
going to get it. You're trying to climb over ninety
four and half here, and you need them to shoot
it fairly well to get to that point. So oddsmakers
haven't made it easy matth hacts with this one because
ninety five is a tall mountain declimb. We saw last
week that you know, when a team can score with
them and push them like Arkansas did, you can wind up.
Obviously that game went double overtime, but I think at
the end of regulation they were still in the one eighties.
Question would become will NATO's led up if it's a
if there's a wide margin at the end of the game.
My answer to that would be no. I think I
said yes, they would try and keep a little notebook
on these coaches and ones that take their foot off
the pedal and are nice to the opponent, and others
that just keep scoring. I forget which team we were
referring to yesterday, but that's kind of the way I
see Natos. So I'm not going to disagree with it.
I think it's in a delicate spot for me to
ask for ninety five here because I could see, you
know what, ninety four loses that bet, and ninety four
would be a really good offensive night for Alabama. So
when I think of it in those terms, again, I
wouldn't talk you off because Alabama's more than capable. I
just don't know that I would be on it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, listen, I do think the I think
maybe the opener was probably a little bit high, Like
I don't. Okay, So I like Alabama. I would only
play Bama in this game. But I can see where
people are coming from from a numbers perspective, saying, okay,
fifteen and a half at the open?
Speaker 2: What was too high?
Speaker 1: Now, this is one where I would punch back a
little bit, especially if that hit thirteen. I was right
around thirteen personally, so I don't think it's going to
go lower than thirteen.
Speaker 2: I doubt you see like a twelve and a half.
Speaker 1: But if you had a book moving a little too
far and got to like thirteen, maybe even like thirteen
and a half, I guess is fine. I think that's
where you can consider to start playing Alabama for me,
I but I would much rather have Bama minus thirteen
and a half than need ninety five points.
Speaker 2: That's just me.
Speaker 1: I think you need a fairly I think you need
a very efficient scoring night from Bama to get ninety
five in this one. And like you said, like Arkansas
is gonna pretty much push that tempo throughout because Arkansas
is gonna be able to stay in that game. My
concern here, Rob would be Bama gets themselves a pretty
big lead and suddenly, even if it's subconscious, maybe they
take the air out of the ball a little bit. Right,
Like over the weekend, they only put up ninety against LSU.
It's not that they probably can't score more than that
against LSU, it's that the win didn't require them to
do more than like what they did. So, like that's
my fear, Like you're saying, like they could they could
win this game, Like they could drop ninety three winning
a blowout and still have had a very good offensive night.
That's my only concern going back to the original question
on the team total. But I definitely like Bama. It
would be Bama or nothing. So how how you play
that is up to you. Me personally, I would take
the discount on the opener and just lay the thirteen
and a half if I was gonna play this one, okay,
and just to go back to the first meeting. I mean,
you know it was ninety seven eighty two. I don't
think I see like that different of a game, but
that you're still so you might be asking for it.
Either way, it could very well land near the number
and near the team total.
Speaker 2: We know the books are very good at.
Speaker 1: This, and it would not be out of the out
of the question. All right, rob Bina, what about what
about closing out this three teamer?
Speaker 2: What are you looking at?
Speaker 3: Let's do Let's go out to the mountain West tonight, Adam,
and what is the most important? Game? Could have been
a feature game for Sir San Diego State at home
against Utah State. Both teams enter in here on losing notes.
Toss State beat by Nevada the other night. How about
Nevada wins over Utah State in New Mexico back to
back in Reno, putting themselves back into contention here. But
this game is first place or the number one seed.
It would allow San Diego State to get back into
a tie with Utah State. Utah State did win the
first meeting by five points, and I think there's a
good revenge angle here for the San Diego State team.
And I have to tell you, I love the construction
of the Utah State team and when they start hitting shots, man,
they create separation better than anybody inside this conversation. You know,
Utah States unique because there are times when Jared Calhoun
will go to lineups with four ball handlers on the
floor and you don't see that very often with four
guys that can shoot and handle the ball. However, for
San Diego State, here we know, the tradition is the tradition.
The perception is the perception. They're the best defense team
in this league. And the first time around they did
lose by five in Logan, but they did contain MJ. Collins,
who is your biggest concern on Utah State. He got
to slow him down. They slowed him down. He only
scored twelve points, one of five inside the arc, two
of nine outside the arc. That's a three or fourteen
game combined on his own home floor. I think San
Diego State can do that again, Adam, and I think
they can improve the way that they shot the basketball
in that game, maybe a couple home whistles to go
with this. This game is basically pick them here. Let
me just get the current showing san Diego State minus
one one and a half in some spots, but minus
one here. I like the situation. I like the spot.
I like the fact that they shut Utah's best player
down the first time around. So I'm gonna go San
Diego State here at home to force a tie in
side the Mountain West. I think it's a good spot
for them, and for those who haven't seen a little
bit of San Diego State basketball this year, this team
is a their tick, better offensively than they've been in
the past. They do have ability to score. So I'm
going to try that side here, Adam. It's it's not
a total play today, guys, apologize for that, but it
is a side player that I think is pretty strong.
San Diego State minus one over Utah State muted.
Speaker 1: Do you know the last time that San Diego State
lost three straight games was way back in Brian Dutcher's
first season.
Speaker 3: Oh don't do that.
Speaker 1: They haven't lost because they had lost three straight games.
I know, I mean, listen, hey, it's just we were
gonna talk about it from all engles.
Speaker 2: No, that's like what.
Speaker 1: I'm saying is that supports your side. Like San Diego
State has been excellent off of a loss historically in
the Dutcher area, in the Dutcher era, they've been very
good off the loss. Off of two losses, they've been
almost automatic. Dutcher has not lost three straight since his
first year in charge. So what I'm saying is like,
from a spot standpoint, you have to like San Diego State.
The one thing I did, Like, here's the thing with
San Diego State for me, because this is one numbers wise,
I'm at three point seven, so my number leans pretty
hard to San Diego State from like where this opened
at pick and where it is now at minus one.
I guess another thing that I would look at, like,
I do think Utah State's probably the better team. But
the thing with Utah State is like they've uncharacteristic some
of the games that they've lost in the fashion that
they've lost this year, Like this team is not really
closing games out.
Speaker 2: They blew the lead.
Speaker 1: Was at UNLV, they blew a lead and they were
a pretty big favorite in doing so. I think it
was UNLV they were like a seventeen point favorite at
home and like found a way to blow that game that.
You know, that's something that I think like the elite
Utah State teams of past years would not have done. Yeah,
they ended up, oh, they ended up kind of getting
blown out in the end there, Just to just to clarify,
they lost that game by ten at home to a
bad Utah State team or UNLV team, and then like
over the weekend, it just felt like they it felt
like they were just gonna end up winning at some
point against Nevada and until they didn't.
Speaker 2: So it's like.
Speaker 1: And you could even you could even lump the Grand
Canyon game in there because it was a road game.
So now you've got, you know, you've got two examples
of San Diego State on the road.
Speaker 2: They were never really in that Grand Canyon game.
Speaker 1: I had Grand Canyon in that game, and Grand Canyon
took a lead and never really gave it back. I
mean they were up, they led pretty much that entire game,
and they dominated them pretty much that entire game. So
my only like criticism of San Diego State, and I
think what keeps me off person at least to this point,
they can be very inconsistent offensively, and if you get
the inconsistent performance where they have like one of these
games where no one could put the ball in the basket,
Utah State might be the team that's tough to beat
with your deep like San Diego State's as good as
anyone at Like, oh, we had a bad offensive game,
no problem, our defense will beat you. They've done it
so many times in Mountain West play. I don't know
if they can do that to Utah State. But if
they're if their offense is if this is one of
the games where the Aztecs offense shows up, I think
they're in like a very good spot to get a win.
So that's just my thoughts on it. I'm not going
to disagree with you and San Diego State. It is
so three sides in the three team are rob uh.
I you know, I didn't ask Garth's permission if I
could put him in, But that's okay. I'll take the blame.
So if Citadel covers all the credit to Garth. If
they don't, Trig will take the blame. That's how we'll
do this one. Because my numbers, my numbers actually very
much like all three games in this parlay I've got
a number edge on Citadel. I've got a pretty nice
number edge on your San Diego State play. And then,
of course one of my biggest number edges of the
day is a four percent play for me on Arkansas,
which I gave for free on the show and I
will use in the parlay. So our three teamer tonight
Arkansas minus seven and a half, San Diego State minus
one and Citadel plus fifteen and a half. Those are
I'll put minus one twenty juice on the Arkansas leg,
so it's minus one ten, minus one ten, minus one
twenty that will be the three teamer. I didn't do
much promoting during the show, but like always win or lose,
rain or Shine, Rob and I are here every day.
Rob and I have a package up every day. If
you want to ride with us for the rest of
the season, email in the customer support let them know
that you want the joint package and you'll get all
of our plays through I like to say through one
shining moment Rob when they're playing that horrible song on
Monday night after the after the final, which is amazing.
As much as they've changed, they took our they took
our court designs, away. They put people that know nothing
about college basketball on the broadcast at the NCAA tournament.
They will not change one shining moment. They're still gonna
fire that us A at like one in the morning
Eastern time after the championship game, no matter what. But yeah,
we listen. I've got two plays locked in already for today.
I expect to have more. I'm probably gonna come out
fire in today just to switch it up a little bit.
Rob's got plays locked in and we're ready to cash.
So let's finish February strong and uh yeah, win or lose.
Will be back ten am tomorrow morning to do it again.
Thank you guys for tuning in, and we'll see you
guys in the morning.