Speaker 1: Happy Sunday. There's not many of these big slates left
on the prop. Queen Aria Epstein taking you through the
next forty minutes or so. We've got a slew of guests,
and as usual, it's Danny the Greek joining us to
tell us where all the steam is the sharp sides,
and apparently after this show, Yannie's going to have a
free steam room New Eastern Time if we do miss
any of the games. We've got John Murray con on
from the Westgate. He's gonna tell us who the sharps
are on what the book needs. So if you want
to be on the same side as Vegas, which is
why they have really tall buildings, John Murray's your guy. Last,
certainly not least Andy Lang from here at we we're
talking to join the show as well, and we are
going to tap props, so many props to get to,
a lot of contract incentives to get to, and we'll
see what Andy says about how to play those contract incentives.
I've got some props as well, some contract incentives that
stood out. The thing for me about contract incentives, you
really can't bet them in week seventeen per se unless
it's a really good matchup for the incentive to I
don't like just randomly blindly batting contract incentives. I know
that's fun to do. That's more of a week eighteen
thing or a thing when teams are kind of out
of it or out of it. For me, it's it's
the matchup working. Does this team need the game? Do
they not? Those are the things to look forward with
contract incentive props, and we'll get to those towards the
end of the show. Coming on now, we're gonna be
joined by Yanni, the Greek leave from Las Vegas. He's
wearing the Phillies hat. He's in it. It's time to
win some money, Yanni. How are you on this Sunday?
Speaker 2: Never better? I'm firing right now, actually firing some props.
I could give them to you guys.
Speaker 1: Hell yeah, let's hear speak all right, let me just
uh hold on. We love when you have props. It's
so rare that they come in so early. I mean you, huh.
Speaker 2: I'm about to give you a bunch of them, five
of them. Actually, hold on, let me just send this
one of my subscribers first. They got to get it first.
Speaker 1: Totally fair, that's fine. They totally deserve to get it first.
And it's crazy because I feel like towards the stretch
of the season, where we're in the final stretch, the
last couple of weeks, props start to come in. In
the playoffs, we always end up seeing a lot of
different props come in as well seeing the chat too. Okay,
first of all, the Jeffrey Epstein daughter comments have to stop.
I have addressed it multiple times. It's an old joke
and too many people have made it. It's not even
funny anymore. It's stupid. Sean Michael, the Ravens are going
to the super Bowl, not me. I actually made a
video saying that the Ravens missing the playoffs would be
the best thing to happen to them. Now, if the
Ravens end up potentially because the Ravens need the Stealers
lose today, would it be fun to have the Ravens
in a meaningful game next week. Absolutely, but they still
need the Stealers to lose for them to be in it. Yann,
are you ready for us?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 2: I'm ready for you. Thank you, thank you. All Right,
here's three that I sent out to subscribers. Here's three
of them. Okay, Trey McBride over seven and a half receptions. Yep,
good to minus one thirty Aaron Rodgers longest completion under
thirty one and a half under thirty and a half.
So we bet that one twice Aaron Rodgers' longest completion
under And this last one I was just sending out
right now, Dylan Sampson over two and a half minus
up to good up the minus one fifty over two
and a half reception. Now there's two more that I
haven't sent to subscribers. I did move it for these groups,
but I only send the props to subscribers that I
get multiple confirmations on. Otherwise, a lot of times they're
middle attempts their scalps and it's Tyler so passing yards
over to twenty one and a half they laid minus
one twenty and then Chris olaive receptions over five and
a half they laid minus one ten, so over five
and a half receptions and then over to twenty one
and a half passing yards. That's some sharp props that
came in right now as we're we're doing this.
Speaker 1: I love I love Aaron Rodgers unders today, and not
because I'm a Ravens fan, it's just what the numbers say.
Trey McBride is getting a defense in Cincinnati that is absolutely,
absolutely horrible against tight ends this year, so he's definitely
a volume monster for this slate. Yanni, I know that
you've got the free steam room coming up at new
and Eastern time today, which is super exciting for anyone
that misses any games on the slate here on the show,
So make sure to go check in bet with a
steam Room brought to you by wager Talk neon Eastern time.
It is free today and usually you would have to
pay for that, so really good to know. Cleveland Browns
and Steelers, we might as well start there. We're talking
Aaron Rodgers unders the Browns. Their defense is still dealing.
It's a question of Ken Shador Sanders get the job done.
That line moved from five and a half to three
throughout the week. Have we missed the boat? Is it
the Steelers?
Speaker 2: Now?
Speaker 1: We still have the key number three? How do you
see that game with the Browns and the Steelers?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, listen, you would have liked to get
down earlier, but you're we're gonna get that chance again
because the Steelers are getting steamed this morning. That much.
I can tell you. I received the buy order on
the Steelers. I know other guys are getting buy orders
on the Steelers as well. I know all the talk
was the sharp side was Cleveland, and it was earlier
in the week, but they came back really strong on
the Steelers off screen about fifteen minutes ago, and I'm
pretty sure it's gonna appear on screen within the next
thirty minutes. That's always how it works, and you're gonna
get a lot of that over these next two weeks.
This is that time of the year where if you're
trying to read line moves to draw conclusions, if you
don't have definitive sources to confirm, you're guessing, and that's
a bad position to be in. You're better off being
extremely selective and just waiting for the playoffs because there's
a lot of manipulation going on, because these lines are
going to move significantly, and like I said, there's gonna
be a lot of moves early that then you see
take back later like the Steeler. Today, we're laying three
off screen all morning. I didn't use that with subscribers because,
like I said, I bet both signs of his game.
I bet Cleveland earlier in the week for a group,
and then today they three four five exit off off
screen first, and I'm pretty sure it's showing up on
screen if you pull up your lot there it is. Yeah,
Pittsburgh's up the four four and a half, Yeah exact.
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm waiting for that thing to bounce back
because it just seemed I mean, I know that there
was a lot of that line moved from five and
a half to three even before we saw the DK,
even sorry, even after the DK Metcalf, after the TJ.
Watt news, that line was moving in favor of Cleveland.
So no surprise to see the Sharps bouncing back that
line to four.
Speaker 2: Four Cleveland's There's only two teams that are below Cleveland
on my power ratings, and that's the Jets in Vegas. So,
I mean, other than fading the public, what was the
argument the bet? Really Cleveland? Pittsburgh's not motivated playing for
like those are the arguments you're making.
Speaker 1: But they are motivated because they don't want to have
to play next week. If the Steelers win today, they
don't need to play next week. They eliminate the Ravens.
But if they lose, then the game against the Ravens
is meaningful and whoever wins that game would end up
moving on and the loser goes home. So it is
a huge game for the Steelers. The Browns could just
you know, have that incentive to bring down the Steelers,
Like that's really it.
Speaker 2: So guys are making their their girlfriends or wives or
booking flights the Bahamas already. You think they care about
ruining the Steelers this season. That's what they're focused on
right now. If that's your motivation to play football, Yeah.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, as a Ravens fan, I guess I should
hope that the Ravens can root for the Browns today.
But gosh, you know what's gonna happen. Chris Boswell is
gonna kick a sixty plus yarder and the game is
gonna land like three three and a half, Like it'll
land right there on the line between two and four.
It's gonna be a close game. That's just how these
games play out. You mentioned in the Vegas Raiders Johnny
Vegas Giants a very ugly game. Someone in the chat
was asking about it, who do you like?
Speaker 2: Let me see what I have the latest info on
this game, like it's one you see me going back
and forth like stuttering, because it's that kind of game,
Like I feel like if I'm guessing, if I feel that,
I shouldn't be laying eleven the win ten. That's the
bottom line. And if you feel like that today, you
should be passing or betting for entertainment. And and with
this game, that's the problem right now. There's one side.
It's Vegas or pass because you could have got Giants
as a dog when the line opened, and then you
could have got them at minus one, minus two, minus
two and a half minus three. So it's like what
were you waiting for up until today? So you can't
bet the Giants. That's negative ev even if they go
out there and win by thirty points, it's just the
bad habit to bet that late. So the only choice
is to bet the Raiders. But what's attractive about the Raiders.
They are the worst team in all of the NFL.
So again, the Giants are only a couple positions above it.
But at least with the Giants, like I have a
little more confidence in them. Yeah, these are games that
I'm passing on. Like again, I bet for I use
sports betting as an investment vehicle. I don't do it
for fun. I don't I don't like I don't really
watch the games. I don't like root in teams or players.
So for me, it's all about do I find an
inefficient line and I just don't see it. I don't
see it in the Giants Vegas game, And uh yeah,
some of these games are just ugly. Again, I don't
mean to uh discourage the viewers, but this is uh
at wager talk. We're here to try to steer you
to do sharp and uh plus TV kind of sports
betting approach and not just for entertainment and free picks.
And unfortunately on games like that, they're just ugly. Like
I said, it's Vegas or pass, and for me, it's
a pass.
Speaker 1: A game that's not that ugly. Two good teams actually
going head to head. Eagles Bills. This one's in the
four pm Eastern Timeslate. This line's bounced around a bit.
I've seen it go bills minus two and a half,
bills minus one and a half. Now it's back to
minus two and a half. Total forty four and a half.
It is cold here in New York and Manhattan. I
can't imagine how freaking cold it is in Buffalo. What
do you see here?
Speaker 2: Yeah, we bet the under. We bet that under at
forty four. You're starting to get over money from the
betting public. That's why it's not really reflected in the market.
But rest ashore, the under did get steamed, and I
think it's because mostly you're looking at overreaction. You have
the Buffalo number one offense, You're usually going to get
an inflated price there. I think you have Philly coming
off high scoring games. They put up thirty one and
twenty nine, you know, back to back games, but the
defense has showed up. That's why I do like the
game under. I was leaning in Philadelphia because I did
think this was power rated wise. This was very close.
Like I would make Buffalo maybe a half point favorite,
not even to pick them with Philadelphia on the neutral.
So maybe give Buffalo two points for home field advantage
and now being able to get three at even money
on Philly. That looks like the side. But the Buffalo
action has been short and I always try to respect
that a little bit. So I haven't bet decide at all,
but I like Philadelphia power rated wise. That makes sense
to me, but I like the under a lot more.
I just don't like that the lines up the forty
five in some of the books that you know, I respect.
I would have liked to see that total show around
forty three and a half right now, But you know,
I already placed the bets. So we'll see what happens.
Speaker 1: A game that really matters for that Bills team. It's
the Patriots because the Bills. If both teams if somehow
the Patriots, I think the whole playoff implication is that
next week would matter if both win today. I think
that's how it is. But if the Bills lose to
the Eagles, then the Patriots could win the division out
like are done and they win the division. So I
think both have to win today in order for next
week to matter for the division. But we've got a
double digit favorite, the Pats on the road, laying thirteen
and a half at the Jets. Obviously, the Jets nothing
to play for for weeks now. Can they cover a
double digit spread?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 2: And New England's owned the Jets in this series. I
mean the Jets covered earlier and I think they've covered
three of their last four. But you go you know,
zoom out a little bit and you'll see New England's
dominated that series. But I think this line's a little
bit too high. What we're looking at now, like power
rated wise, it's not going to come out to that
where New England should be a two touchdown favor on
the road against the Jets. But New England just continues
to win football games. That's the bottom line. You know,
on paper, they don't really get too much respect from
you know, the wise guys because power rated wise, they're
barely a top fifteen team because they had such an
easy strength of schedule, and yet statistically they're barely top
fifteen offense, barely top fifteen defense efficiency wise, and I
just think this way too many points. I get it,
Jets are the bottom at the bottom. The only team
below the Jets are Vegas on my power ratings. But
the spread becomes the great equalizer. I say that all
the time, but it really does. And when you're talking
about you know, upwards of two touchdowns at home, for me,
it's a dog or pass situation. I'm hoping to get fourteen.
That's the key. Can I get fourteen? Now? It's sitting
at thirteen and a half, and I don't want to
pay juice to get fourteen on the Jets. That to
me sounds crazy. So hopefully I get a fourteen and
I'll take it. Otherwise, it's a stay away from me, a.
Speaker 1: Team that also has nothing to play for facing a
team that has a lot to play for. It's that
Jags Colts game. And even though the Colts got eliminated
yesterday the Jags, they're on the road laying four and
a half. I also saw that line move against the
Jaguars throughout the week. Old Man Philip Rivers is final
swan song. Maybe in the next couple of weeks, maybe
there's a team that wants to play for them. But
how do you handicap games like this where you've got
a team playing for a lot versus a team playing for.
Speaker 2: Nothing or nothing? Yeah, that does become difficult. And more importantly,
look at the line. It's moving in.
Speaker 1: Favor of the Colts, even though they lined exactly.
Speaker 2: But the key is the Colts have played really good
at home. If you look at them, the split is significant.
I mean there are two and five team on the road,
there are six and two team at home. So you
got to, you know, give them the nod for a
home field advantage in this spot, and even though they
haven't won football games, like this is a divisional game
with Jacksonville, you expect them to, you know, maybe show up.
They got blown out by them earlier in the year, right,
just a couple of weeks ago, what thirty six to nineteen,
So there is a little bit of revenge there. But
it's another spot where it's tough to argue betting Indianapolis. Like,
if a team like this finds themselves behind, where's the motivation.
Speaker 3: For that back door?
Speaker 2: That's the problem I have with betting some teams like
them that are eliminated that yeah, they're at home, the
split looks good, that's where they've played better power rated wise,
it doesn't really make sense. But are they you know,
going to try to play spoiler? Those are a lot
of factors that are so difficult to quantify.
Speaker 4: Areas well.
Speaker 2: I rather pass. I don't mean to be boring, but
again I do this for money, and I think anyone
out there should look to protect their cash. There's a
lot of betting opportunities coming up. There's these bowl games,
the playoffs in college football, the NFL playoffs around the corner.
There's college basketball, there's NBA, there's NHL. Like, there's so
many opportunities for you to find value, you can't force it.
And I think that's what we're doing in the last
two weeks of the NFL. Yes, there's spots to make money,
and the line moves reflect that. Anytime you see line
moves two, three, four, five points in the NFL, that's
a money making opportunity because that tells you the market's
not very efficient right now. But with that said, most
recreational betters are not able to get out ahead of
this information. Let's just keep it real. They're not doing that.
They're betting it late after the market's already factored in,
priced in all the news. And that's the difficulty. And
if that's where you stand today, bro let it go. Relax.
There's better places to get your money down. Bet the
positions you like, Like I have two positions already, probably
gonna have three or four more between now and kickoff.
But I'm in no rush to, you know, lose profit
that we've worked so hard to gain in the NFL
regular season and in college football. So for me, it's
it's take my time and find those good spots, but
I'm not forcing anything today.
Speaker 1: Someone in the chat mentioned the Seattle Seahawks game, and
it's crazy that they're on the road in Carolina laying
a touchdown. Carolina needs to win in order to have
a shot to get in the playoffs, win the division.
So I'm curious your thoughts on Seattle laying that hefty
number of seven, and Mike and Molly two forty eight
has a thought on the under for that team for
the total.
Speaker 2: I like the under. I lean under as well. I
think that's a good bet, especially at forty three. There's
some forty three's out there. I like Seattle. I don't
think this line's high enough. Based on my power ratings,
Seattle should be higher than a seven point favorite. And
I'm actually working on that side, trying to confirm it
for a premium play. And if you're in the steam room,
you'll know if we're going to fire, because again, the
must win situation's got to remember. Yes, you're motivated to win,
but there's a reason you're in a must win spot.
More times than not, it's because you must not be
all that good. Like teams that have already clinched, they're
the elite. They're not in this position. We know who
they are. But if you're scrambling the last week because
you have to win, then there's some problems on that team.
And then you add the pressure of having to win.
That's a lot on their plate. Where the other team
it's a free roll. More or less, you're free rolling.
And I think a loose twelve to three Seattle team,
which is so much better on paper and played so
well on the road as well this year, what's the
fade with Seattle. I'm only mad that this isn't seven
and a half, so I could tease them fifty seven
different ways. That's what I'm hoping for, that this goes
to seven and a half and that they get steamed
and that happens. Probably not going to happen because the
public's coming in on Carolina. But if this gets the
six and a half, and I'm already seeing six and
a half at the Square shops, I'm taking Seattle. I
like the Seahawks.
Speaker 1: We've got about a minute left, so I guess what
are you seeing? Real quick? Just for sharp sides, totals
and sides that we haven't seen.
Speaker 2: All right, A couple of this sharp plays earlier and
throughout this week was I told you Seattle Carolina under
at forty three four point fifteen, New York Giants plus
one to minus one. They flipped that favorite Cleveland earlier
in the week, but Pittsburgh today and under thirty four
and a half double sided New Orleans minus one, Tennessee
plus three. I talked about that earlier. This is gonna
happen a lot over these two weeks, so be careful.
You're gonna hear sharp sides on both sides. In the
under forty seven and a half and forty six and
a half Jacksonville, Indianapolis over New England minus nine and
a half, and the opener, excuse me, an eleven and
a half Philadelphia at plus three. But that looks like
Buffalo came back and under forty five, and then Chicago
and San Francisco the over. But I don't know if
that was getting out ahead of the public, because we're
seeing some under money come back today. So that's pretty
much some of the sharper moves. Join me in the
steam room. And of course, the premium package is up
only four percent. Number one in the NFL in the
regular season in profit, Number one on four and five
percent in the NFL, number one in college football profit.
And wait till you see what's gonna happen in twenty
twenty six. Huge year, jump on board. Join me in
the steam room in about forty minutes. We're gonna do
some damage.
Speaker 1: Love to hear a free steam room today with the
on of the Greek Catch and my Greek underscore Gambler,
and he'll be in the stame room on wager Talk
platforms at noon Eastern. Yanni, good luck today. We'll see
it going on the show now and before I bring
on our next guest. You were saying this in the
chat that there wouldn't be a last call again before
the college football playoff. I just spoke to Kelly in Vegas.
There will be one. That's why I did not address it.
Kelly said there will be a last call right before
the college football playoffs, so don't worry. She'll let you
know when that is coming up. I don't know if
it's Wednesday or Thursday, but I will make sure she
lets you guys know. But you will get some action
here on wager Talk's last Call before the college football
playoff coming up on New Year's Eve and New Year's
Day bringing on John Murray, who I know definitely is
a New Year's guy like you definitely love New Year's Eve.
You definitely seem like the guy that loves to sit
in the room with all your favorite people kids at midnight,
Happy New Year. That sounds like you.
Speaker 5: New Year's Eve is kind of like Saint Patrick's Day.
It's kind of an amateur night, isn't it.
Speaker 2: Oh, you know what I mean?
Speaker 5: I think so. I think it's like a lot of
people that don't know what they're doing.
Speaker 1: I had the best time, my favorite Saint Patrick's Day
moment ever. I was in Vegas and it was the
first time that I watched somebody get taken out of
a casino by two cops, one on each or security
whatever it was, one on each arm of this guy.
He couldn't even stand up. He was in his green
for Saint Patrick's Day. It was March madness, and he
got dragged on his knees out. He couldn't even stand.
He was sleeping on his knees like out of a movie,
getting dragged by his shoulders out.
Speaker 5: So it wasn't like in the movie Casino where they
take him out and they use his head to open
the door.
Speaker 1: They might have used his head to open the door,
but I didn't see them leave. I just saw them
exit the casino.
Speaker 3: Got it.
Speaker 1: It was pretty cool sight. And that's an amateur for sure.
Speaker 3: Were you was this the guy that you were with?
Or was this just a random I don't know or
a random that.
Speaker 1: Was sober day? We love you, Kelly and Brett Okay,
Needs of the Day. It's a weird week because we're
at the point of the season where we've got teams
that care and teams that don't. What does the Westgates
Superbook need today, John.
Speaker 5: Murray, we need we need Miami their homes. Oh yeah,
they have a very good team this season.
Speaker 3: We need Miami. We need stop me. If you've heard
me say this before every week we've done the show together.
Speaker 1: We need Vegas or do you need New Orleans?
Speaker 3: We need the Raiders, the Raiders, We need the Raiders.
Speaker 5: Yet again, they're at home against your Giants.
Speaker 1: Or giants I would winners, but I don't that they
won last night.
Speaker 3: I feel like I feel like your social media this week.
Speaker 5: I want to I wanted to talk to you about
this and I'm glad I picked this for him to
do it instead of just texting you. I feel like
your social media this week has been like a weird
mix of like professional photos and videos ranting about the Ravens.
Speaker 3: That's all I've seen from you all week.
Speaker 5: We need we do need the Raiders against your Giants,
and it looks like we're gonna need uh Philadelphia in
the afternoon, and.
Speaker 3: We need I'll tell you a weird one. We need
the Steelers. So we took a lot of money on
Cleveland that.
Speaker 1: The line moved back to Ford.
Speaker 3: That that's the thing.
Speaker 5: We're actually in good shape because we took all these
bets on Cleveland and plus three before the game last night.
So all of our liability, or most of our liability,
i'll say, is on Cleveland plus three and and to
your point, right now, the game is four and a half.
So in theory, we would be in a favorable physician
in this game. And we'll see how it plays out.
Speaker 1: What about totals?
Speaker 5: Totals, we need the under in the Bengals Cardinals game.
Speaker 3: That should be a.
Speaker 1: Good one to play for there.
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, it's a good game.
Speaker 5: And it looks like we'll need not a surprise, we'll
want the under in the Eagles Bills game.
Speaker 3: That's the big big game.
Speaker 1: It's kind of shocking because it's cold weather and I
feel like a lot of people might be betting that
under because they feel it's cold and it might snow
and ritten.
Speaker 3: Is that what they're saying?
Speaker 1: Is that saying?
Speaker 3: Is that how the customers talk? They use that voice,
that inflection. Never heard that You're not.
Speaker 1: Going to make fun of people, because I've gotten in
trouble for making fun.
Speaker 3: Of people with with who what? People?
Speaker 1: I don't want to lose fans for the wager Talk crowd.
Speaker 3: It's fine, No, no, I'm sure you're You must be
very well liked by the fan base.
Speaker 1: Most people, okay, yeah, most people. There are people in
the chat that are mad at me still, but I'm
going to win them back.
Speaker 2: Well.
Speaker 5: Kelly Kelly thrives on the people being mad at her
like she welcomes it right, like I don't really people
or the Bears people, because Kelly hates the Bears right,
and she hates Texas Football.
Speaker 1: Right, the Bears all season?
Speaker 3: Oh how's that been going for?
Speaker 1: You should ask her?
Speaker 3: Oh, I will ask her.
Speaker 5: Well, Kelly Kelly is one of those people that like
she'll just she'll say this team's not that good, and
then she'll just fade them every week.
Speaker 3: And then, yes, eventually the Bears will probably lose a game.
I recognize that.
Speaker 5: And then in the playoffs, well maybe they will, but
they they'll have already beat her like ten times by then.
Speaker 3: So what was that she did?
Speaker 5: She told me she teased them last week against Green
Bay and they should They should have lost that game.
Speaker 3: They should have lost the Green Bay but they didn't.
Speaker 1: Right, which team has had success this season that you're
expecting to be a one and done in the playoffs.
Speaker 3: That's a good question. Is that your question or is
that one of your people?
Speaker 1: That's my question.
Speaker 3: That's a good question.
Speaker 1: That's that's why it's my question.
Speaker 5: Let's see who's going to be a one and done
in the playoffs. I mean, of course, it's just going
to depend on who plays who the brackets, But I
think to me, New England and Chicago are both more
real than Denver. Is I just that's just how I
feel about it. Denver seems to just barely scrape by
so frequently, but it's all going to just come down
to who plays who. You know, if Denver gets the
right opponent in the first round and they're at home.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if they won the game.
Speaker 3: But I think I think.
Speaker 1: Chicago, you believe in the past more so.
Speaker 3: Than I do in Denver. Yeah, because I think I
think Drake May is just really a special player. I
think he's really good. What's that going to mean in
his first playoff game?
Speaker 5: I mean, we'll find that out, right, but I do
think he's a He's a very good player.
Speaker 1: I just want to warn you that Kelly is listening
because she already wrote the needs in the leave the
Canoli chat.
Speaker 3: Doesn't she have anything to do? You know? Or is
this what she's doing? Like she's producing this show, she's
the boss.
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's too che you know what. That was unfair
of me, Kelly. I'm sorry, she's working. No, she's working
right now.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry. I can see Kelly in the background with
the shocked look, wondering why this show is about her.
Also non in an agreement. I think that's definitely disagreeing
with us. The show is always so Badly insert herself
into this video right now, probably and talk back.
Speaker 5: I think the segment is kind of always about her
and I I do. I do a show on Fridays
with one of your Wager Talk colleagues, Marco D'Angelo, and
ye that that that, Yeah, he's a very very good guy.
And that segment usually becomes about Kelly because Marco and
Kelly are good friends, so that that usually devolves into
that as well.
Speaker 3: So I get it. But I think we ran through.
We ran through probably the critical needs here. We do.
I think we'll probably I mean, I know we're gonna
need Atlanta tomorrow night.
Speaker 5: Okay, right, so I land out right now is seven
and a half point Monday night football. They are at
home again the Rams. How much will we need Atlanta
will depend a lot on what happens today. You know,
we're gonna see a lot of parlays, parlay teasers. Excuse me,
how many of them will survive today's morning games and
make it to tomorrow. Well, I don't know that yet, folks,
but if all the favorites win this morning, then we'll
we'll need Atlanta probably pretty big.
Speaker 2: To the more.
Speaker 1: I know, props aren't really as big out there, But
are there any props that will send out to you?
Speaker 3: Oh?
Speaker 5: Let's see here, let me see that they get bigger
as the season goes on, and then you you don't
want you don't want to see all these high profile
players score touchdown. That's what really will hurt you is
if you get like, because people love to parlay together
all the players to score a touchdown.
Speaker 1: Yeah they love that.
Speaker 3: Oh they love it. So we don't not.
Speaker 1: An any time touchdown person except next week. I will
be betting Hollywood Brown next week against those Raiders to
score touchdown for seven hundred?
Speaker 3: Okay, who was the oh is that right?
Speaker 1: Oh?
Speaker 3: Who was the player that said he needed.
Speaker 5: And wanted to score a touchdown today? Wasn't that Jamar Chase?
I think I saw a quote like Jamar Chase's, like
the only thing he cares about today is scoring a touchdown.
Speaker 1: So I didn't say that it wasn't incentive list.
Speaker 3: Uh, I don't know. I don't think it was financial.
Speaker 1: I don't want one that he doesn't have to play
next week, I think so.
Speaker 3: Yeah. Probably. Uh.
Speaker 5: It's tough for me because I don't play fantasy football anymore.
So I've never heard of any of these players. But
I'll do my best here. They bet a scheme, ay, okay, Yeah.
Speaker 1: Running back exactly from my hometown.
Speaker 5: Oh really, Well, you know I stopped playing I stopped
playing fantasy football, so I don't know any of the
play He's.
Speaker 1: Also not really like a first string so it kind
of makes sense. But did they bet him over running?
Speaker 5: Yeah, they bet him over twenty seven and a half
and they bet uh Buka. I don't I don't know
how to pronounce his name, but I do remember him
from the Buccaneers. You awesome, awesome at Ohio State, they
bet him under thirty six and a half receiving yards.
I'd say those with like the two big ones right
now we got we got a decent amount of.
Speaker 3: Time to go, though.
Speaker 1: I love it, John Murray, who do you don't want
to see win the Super Bowl?
Speaker 5: Who do I not want to see you win Super Bowl?
I know, I know we do really poorly on the EXACTA.
If it's Rams and Bills.
Speaker 3: Like the Super Bowl EXACTA.
Speaker 5: If it's Rams and Bills, the guy who did it
before the season, he quit and he got another job
in season. I would have to rehire him and then
fire him ceremonially. If the Rams beat the Bills, I'd
have to bring him back to work just a fire
in a big display.
Speaker 3: That's how bad that would be. I think we're we're
in pretty good shape in the super Bowl futures, and
the college football futures are a little bit more of
a focus for US.
Speaker 5: We don't want Miami to win the national championship. That
means very bad for US. And and Texas Tech. Texas
Tech was a very popular team preseason and uh, hey,
hold on, I got my dog right here, Texas. Yeah, Mario,
so everybody come here, Come here, he's chewing on a box.
Speaker 1: That's what they wanted to know. David Banks said, can
we get the heart hitting questions? Is Mario in the office?
Speaker 3: Oh, hold on a second, let me grab here. Here.
Speaker 1: My dog's sleeping. Marley's asleep because she has to take
anti nausea meds to come back in the car. And
we had to drag that from the suburbs. Hi, I'm Mario, Mario.
Speaker 5: Mario got a new Liverpool sweater for Christmas, so he's
all decked out.
Speaker 3: It's a little cold here. Uh yeah.
Speaker 5: But Texas Tech was like one hundred and one pre season,
and and they they took a fair bit of money.
We're in very good shape on Georgia very good shape
on Ohio State. We lose a little bit on India,
but I think we're in pretty good. I think we're
more I think we're more concerned about.
Speaker 3: That right now.
Speaker 5: I'll tell you what's keeping me up at night is
we we get we get On Stafford winning MVP, which
he's going to, which he should, so that that won't
be good for us.
Speaker 1: Should Philip Rivers wouldn't come back Player of the Year.
Speaker 3: I think Philip. I think Philip Rivers is awesome.
Speaker 1: Man.
Speaker 5: I honestly like to just be living on some farm
and like Alabama coaching high school football, raising this factory
of future quarterbacks, and then it's like.
Speaker 3: Hey Phil, we need a QB this week. Yeah, what
the hell? He just comes in off the couch. I
think Rivers amazing. I got nothing but a dog like
Mario Mario.
Speaker 1: Yeah all right, John Maurray, we're gonna let you go.
Thank you as always for coming on the show and
helping us pick some winners. Hopefully the needs end up winning.
Speaker 3: I can't wait. Should be another fun NFL Sunday. Thank
you for having me on. Tell Kelly Mario, Mario, Tell
Kelly Mario said, Hello, I.
Speaker 1: Will, She'll be She'll have Fomo only because of Mario,
thanks to him.
Speaker 3: Bye, guys, coming on the show.
Speaker 1: Now, you guys know I love to talk about my props.
There was nobody better to talk about props with on
this ugly weird, very hard to handicap, sometimes late, with
teams that may care, may not care. Contract incentives. Andy
Lang at Bump Sports joining the show. It's probably the
first time this year I think that we've got Andy
Lang on to talk props. How are you, my friends?
Speaker 3: I'm good.
Speaker 6: You started off by saying ugly and weird, and I
thought you were describing me, and I'm like, geez, I
volunteered to come on your show and start off with ugly.
No it is it was probably Yes, it is an ugly,
weird week of props. There's a lot of them that
we can that we'll go over, but tread lightly this week.
Speaker 1: Okay, So first I want to get your thoughts on
contract incentives. At the top of the show, I said
I only bet contract incentives before week eighteen if it's
against a team defensively that matches up well against that
position player. How do you approach contract incentives prior to
week eighteen.
Speaker 6: Okay, so here's the history of contract incentives. You got
to understand the progression of it.
Speaker 4: So years ago, somebody.
Speaker 6: I don't know who it was, somebody discovered these contract incentives,
and then somebody discovered, oh, these teams and quarterbacks and
skill positions actually try to get these in the last week.
So it started off very small with a small number
of people knowing about this. Then it grew, and then
it hit social media and more and more of the
public knows about contract incentives.
Speaker 4: Well, guess who else knows about contract incentives? The books.
Speaker 6: So now you have more and more people wanting to
sound smart talking about contract incentives, and the books know this.
Now the next progression is now we're going to talk
about contract incentives in weeks before the final week.
Speaker 4: Yeah, which is a gigantic mistake.
Speaker 6: I heard people talking about contract incentives last week with
three games to go. You're setting yourself up for disasters. So, honestly,
I think it's jumped the shark and I do not
pay attention to many contract incentives.
Speaker 4: The books know it.
Speaker 6: It's bag into the lines. You don't have the edge
that you used to anymore. So I think contract incentives
are are on the way out. I remember last year
they had Mike Evans priced perfectly at one thousand yards
and it was tough. There was no value in betting it.
So people are gonna bet it because it's a fun
it's a novelty. But I promise you you're not smarter
in the books with contract.
Speaker 1: Incentives, absolutely, which is why I've got a few different
approaches this week that isn't necessarily about hitting contract incentives.
Maybe making a little dent in it, but it all
has to do with matchups and Andy laying tell us
what you're looking at on the board today.
Speaker 6: Okay, well, since I knew I was coming home with you,
let's do a prop in every single game.
Speaker 4: So here we go.
Speaker 6: Rapid fire yep, Tampa Miami Jalen Wattle over fifty eight
and a half receiving. I think quit yours is actually
not bad. And this is a Tampa Bay defense that
you can throw all over. And if you're Miami, you
need to know what you have in Quinny yours. He's
gonna throw a lot. He had thirty attempts last week.
I see another big attempts game from him. If he's
gonna do well, Wattle's going to do well as well.
So wattle Over is receiving. Here's a fun one for
the Jets and the Patriots do a same game parlay.
If Brady Cook will throw an interception, plus Drake May
will not throw an interception, that gets you to plus
one thirty. Brady Cook's got an interception in three in
a row. My worry about the Drake May will not
throw an interception is I discovered this Jets don't have
an interception about five weeks ago.
Speaker 4: Now everybody knows it. So everybody knows.
Speaker 6: That the Jets don't have an interception. That's normally when
it blows up. But for fun, that one's pretty good.
Steelers Jalen Warren. I was worried about his health. He's
off the injury report. I'll take his over rushing fifty
four and a half, it's gonna be wet wetfield. No
DK metcalf in Cleveland's defense, you can run all over
him at one sixty three and a half rushing allowed
the last three games. So I think Warren is gonna
get get most of the carries game. Well's become the
pass catcher. Jalen Warren's become the rusher there.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go back to a goodie this year.
Speaker 6: Chase Brown over eighty two and a half rushing plus receiving.
I want both of these categories in this era. It's
Maddy Yeah, ninety plus and eight out of the last
nine games.
Speaker 4: He just gets there in one category each week.
Speaker 6: You don't know which one it is, and the books
still haven't caught up to this one. So I'll take
a Chase Brown over rushing receiving.
Speaker 4: I'll give you two.
Speaker 6: In the Colts and the Jags, Trevor Lawrence to throw
two plus touchdown passes. Sauce Gardner is back for the
Colts for some unknown reason. I don't think he's one
hundred percent healthy. He's got a calf injury. If he
tweaks it again, he's going to be out. Colts lost
the Forrest Buckner. He's gone for the year. This is
a Colts defense that is trash right now. Alec Pierce
over two and a half receptions. It was one and
a half last week and he got to four receptions.
I don't think they adjusted this high enough. Philip Rivers
will hit him a couple of times. Their indoors should
be good conditions for throwing for this game. For the Colts,
I think they're going to be down. I think they
get stomped on this week. So Pierce over two and
a half. For receptions, New Orleans, Tennessee, ty j Spears.
This has been a great one for clients over seventeen
and a half receiving. He's over this nine out of
the last ten, and he has two or more catches
and ten straight arial Tyzie Spears has been a fantastic one. Seattle, Carolina.
I don't know what to do with this one. I
wanted to give you a prop in every game, so
we'll go chew A. Hubbard over eight and a half
longest rush. He's done it in four straight, but he's
only gotten ten yards in four straight, so it's not
like he's blowing this but.
Speaker 4: Out of the water. But that number could be a
little bit low.
Speaker 6: Favorite under no surprise Giants Raiders is my favorite under
of the week. It's Jackson Dart under thirty and a
half rushing. I think they finally got to him last
week Ariel and they were like, no more trips to
the blue tent. Man Like y slide, you go out
of bounds or you throw the ball away, and he
had seven rushing yards last week in a game that's
meaningless for both of these teams as far as winning.
I think Dart doesn't take off running very much. Philadelphia Buffalo.
I want to exploit this Bill's rush defense, or lack
of rush defense, and I'll do it with Jalen Hurts
over twenty nine and a half rushing. He's actually gone
over in five out of the last six. The Bills
are bottom three rush defense by Metric. All the attention
is gonna be on Saquon Barkley in a nasty weather game.
Jalen Hurts is gonna be fantastic taking off and running.
Take us over there, and then Chicago San Francisco. I'm
gonna lean kayleb Williams over one and a half passing touchdowns.
You're getting a great price, and he's done this in
three straight games, four out of five. This is a
San Francisco team that's really overchieved, but you can score
on him. So Kayla Williams over one a half passing touchdowns.
There's one prop in every game.
Speaker 1: Whooh, when you did that so quickly. I'm on the
same page as you though talking about the Jalen Hurts
rushing usually he runs a lot more at home, which
is the only thing that scares me. Bill struggle a
lot against the run, especially running backs. But I was torn.
I wanted to bet Hurts over. But again, on the road,
it's not as much as at home.
Speaker 4: I know.
Speaker 6: I just when I look at these props, there's some
really bad defenses that I want to exploit. And the
Bills rush defense, I feel like I'm gonna be upset
if I don't make money off of fading.
Speaker 3: The Bills defense.
Speaker 6: So Saquan Over his longest rush could be a look.
I just these bad defenses are you know Arizona, Cincinnati,
Dallas like their cash cows to fade these horrible defenses.
Speaker 1: Another question I have for you reacting to your props late.
So I liked Chase Brown, and I know we said
contract incentives isn't necessarily something we talk about, but these
are two teams that are playing for nothing, Arizona and Cincinnati.
Samaji p Ran can earn one hundred K by hitting
five hundred rushing yards. He's at three thirty five. I
was curious if you think that he could bite into
some of Chase Brown's workload.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean he already does. He already does get
some pretty good That's a hefty number for Samaji p
Ryan to get over it, Like there would have to
be a long run, some kind of broken play. And
you know, Samaji p RAN's not a bellcown. I don't
know how much they would give him he would need.
He would need to get to seventy today and then
maybe they give him a shot to get one hundred
next week if nobody else is trying.
Speaker 4: That would be a tough What is his what is
his rushing number?
Speaker 2: Half?
Speaker 4: Yeah? Lean over? These are two horrible defenses. Like this
isn't over. This is an over machine. I looked at
the weather. It's it's kind of gusty, but the sustained
wins are not that bad.
Speaker 6: I don't think it affects the game that much. This
is this could easily be a high scoring game where
everybody goes over.
Speaker 4: And yes, John Moyer was right.
Speaker 6: It was Jamar Chase that set out my My goal
for week seventeen is the scoring touch.
Speaker 4: Week seventeen sad.
Speaker 3: It really is sad.
Speaker 1: Tropical Farm, says Adam feeling over two and a half receptions.
He wants to know your thoughts.
Speaker 4: Oh boy, Adam feeling. I oh, I know he had
four last week? Yeah, sure, why not?
Speaker 6: It's not confident, but no DK there, it's just thinking dunk.
I just think it's going to be a tight ends game.
I don't, I don't, I can't. I'm not gonna put
money on it. If you're gonna play it, sure, go
ahead and play over just because DK is out. But
I don't think there's really much value there. To me,
it sounds like a Darnel Washington Kenneth Gainwell type of game.
Speaker 1: And then Jersey Tuggins sports games Jacoby Brissett over one
and a half passing or Sam Darnold he also likes
as well.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Jacoby Brissett, for sure.
Speaker 6: I had a honestly, Ariel I had my five percent
play was on preset to throw over one and a
half touchdowns last week.
Speaker 4: Michael Wilson has an amazing catch.
Speaker 1: I like him over passing yards today.
Speaker 6: Yeah, Harrison drops one that he should have caught in
the end zone. McBride allerg I like he had all
the opportunities in the world to try. The worry with
the Cardinals is they are so banged up on defense
that the other team holds the ball for so long.
Like you worry about the Cardinals with the time of possession,
but today it could be just up and down the field,
the big play after big play. So yeah, Jacoby Brissett
over for sure. They don't have a running game.
Speaker 1: How about Sam Darnald.
Speaker 4: That's the game. I do not have a few. There's
there's better spots.
Speaker 6: It's the one game that I like, Seattle at Carolina.
I have no idea what to do with that game.
No props jump out, but I would lean no. I
would lean no on that one.
Speaker 1: King Kat says Waller, Hill or Strange, who would you start?
I love the Strange over receiving yards today. It's one
of my best bets on the slate. What do you think?
Speaker 6: So this is fantasy football question? I believe so Taysom Hill,
Brent Strange. If you depending on what the score is
in your in your in your game right now, if
you have a lead, I would take Brenton Strange. If
you need a hail Mary, I would go Taysom Hill.
There's something weird going on in New Orleans with Taysom Hill.
They're like using them a bunch like he's gonna retire
or he's not gonna be with the Saints next year.
Speaker 4: And they love him there.
Speaker 6: They gave him a ton of work. So if you
need a if you need like a big upside swing,
go with Taysom Hill. If your game is pretty close
and you just need kind of a you know, steady floor,
it's Breton.
Speaker 1: Strange, Andy Lang. What are you promoting today?
Speaker 6: We had a lot of plays that are up five
percent best bet and that comes with all the plays
that come out today.
Speaker 4: So two weeks in.
Speaker 6: A row, we've had a winning record and but we've
lost our big play. So let's let's keep up the
winning record and let's finally hit our freaking big big
play today.
Speaker 4: But the good news is you can flat bet if
you want.
Speaker 6: All the all the props that we've played with our
own money are out today. So really like the slate
in a lot of these games. And you're gonna see
a couple games where we have multiple props in those games.
So we found some good matchups, we found some good numbers.
I think the books are sleeping on some of these games.
So let's catch five percent, continue our winning ways and
NFL and thanks so much, for having me on.
Speaker 1: Thanks so much, Andy, good luck today and make sure
to follow Andy Lang at Bumps Sports. And we've also
got remember Yanni the Greek coming on in the steam Room.
It's free today new in Eastern time. I've got let's
see what props I want to tell you guys. I've
got props out on the prop queen dot com. But
I'm also going to go live on my YouTube page
prop Queen Media. Right after this, I'll go live on
YouTube and I will go through my entire list of props.
It's free, nothing to pay for. Just if you want props,
come to me. Right after the show at prop Queen Media.
We will go live on YouTube and discuss a prop
for each game. Janni the Greek will be live doing
sides and totals, telling you where the steam is at
noon Eastern on the steam Room. I'm gonna try to
do it quickly so that doesn't have to overlap with him.
Let's see what prop do I like, though Amander and
I liked. Jacoby Bris said over passing yards. He's averaging
two hundred and ninety four passing yards against bottom ten
pass defenses. Road games averaging two seventy eight in the air.
He's gone over in four or five road games since
he's allowing the fifth most passing yards per game quarterbacks.
Yanni mentioned that the sharp side he liked his sharps
are betting Trey McBride over seven and a half receptions.
That's because Trey McBride's averaging just over eight receptions a
game against teams bottom ten against tight ends. Cincinnati's allowing
the most receiving yards per game to tight ends this year.
Sixty three percent of tight ends have gone over their
reception prop, which is the most if you're looking at
receptions receiving yards longest reception. Sixty three percent went over
their receptions against Cincy, and that's the highest percentage of
those three props to go over against the Bengals. I
mentioned I love Breenton Strange also over thirty seven and
a half receiving yards. He's faced four defenses that are
bottom ten against tight ends. Two of the three on
the road did go over. He had ninety three against Arizona,
thirty nine against Denver, and seventeen against Cincy. He's gone
over in four or five road games overall this year, Strange,
and he's allowing the second most receiving yards per game
to tight ends, with sixty three percent of tight ends
going over their receiving yard prop. So I would definitely
take a look at Breton Strange today in a game
that's meaningless for the Colts. Can't imagine defense really shows
up to play, but maybe the offense does just a
little bit. And then I said, I like Jacoby Brissette
as well, because against a really bad pasty and Jacoby
Brissett up against bad pasties this year, I said, oh sorry,
I mentioned that with a be over on the passing yards,
let me see Kita and also has a good matchup
as a tight end over. In six of eight road games,
he's averaging thirty five receiving yards a game on the road,
twenty eight at home, Miami's allowing the third most receiving
yards per game to tight ends. So make sure to
check me out on the prop Queen Media YouTube page,
Subscribe and tune in to the live show right after this,
and I will go through a prop in every game
and also try to answer your questions as best as
I can. Good luck today, everybody, Thanks for joining in
on Way to Talk last call. We'll be back next
week talking NFL. But also remember Kelly and Vegas said,
stay tuned. They will be doing a last call for
the college football Playoff coming up for New Year's Eve
and New Year's Day. See you guys next week