Speaker 1: Last call Saturday, everybody, it's the prop Queen Arie. I
lefteen Billy in for Kelly in Vegas this summer. I
think this is.
Speaker 2: My last last call on a Saturday.
Speaker 1: Week zero starts basically by the time I get back
from Boston next week, so that's when we get the
takeover again.
Speaker 2: But I'll let you know.
Speaker 1: We are live on your various social channels, cack Rumble
and Way to Talk YouTube channels, so if you are
new here, hit the subscribe button.
Speaker 2: So you never miss another show.
Speaker 1: On today's show, we've got Yanni the Greek, as we
always do on Saturdays. He's going to give us a
look behind some of the back ends of the sharpest
and squarest the counts out there in all of sports.
Ralph Michael's for NFL preseason games, and we've got Ronald
Kbang joining us for some great WNBA insights. So if
you have any questions for our wayger Talk handicappers, drop
it in the comment section on your platform and we
will make sure to get all your questions answered. We've
got Dan in the back and he's going to make
sure that we pop those questions up from the chat
Odds logic If you want to know how all the
lines move across all the different platforms, all the different
sports books. Make sure to go to odds Logic dot
com slash prop Queen and have your odd Odds Logic
screen open while we're doing all this so you can
follow along. Because I know Yanni is going to tell
us a lot about where these sharp groups have been betting.
And I've got some sides in Major League Baseball that
are a little fishy. For example, there's one team you
probably don't actually maybe even two teams if you really
don't want to bet on, because they think we might
have to do it today. Odds Logic created by Don
Best and sports option Guys. It is the ultimate real
time odds screen. It offers comprehensive sports betting data from
sports books worldwide. It's got cutting edge technology and delivers
unparalleled customization, lightning fast updates, and gives you the winning edge.
So send game rotation numbers along with your questions and
we will get them answered. Oddslogic dot Com slash prop
Queen coming up. Let's bring him on. He is known
as the Vegas Runner, Yanni, the Greek lad from Las Vegas,
wearing a Phillies hat yet again.
Speaker 2: What's up, Yanne?
Speaker 3: Happy Saturday, Happy Saturday, Great Saturday. Busy, busy, busy. I've
been up since five am, firing away. There's just so much.
Speaker 2: I'm glad that you are, guess, because there's just so.
Speaker 3: Many markets, and I'm not having money to fit you up.
So this is great for me.
Speaker 1: We've got Greasey's in NFL, Major League Baseball, WNBA, UFC
this weekend.
Speaker 3: Yeah, tonight three nineteen in Chicago.
Speaker 4: Huge huge card, really really really good card, very betible
card as well.
Speaker 1: So okay, so I know that when everyone sees Janni
the Greek, they say we need to get in on
some UFC actions.
Speaker 2: So let's start there with UFC. What do you want
to give us today?
Speaker 4: All right, let me give you a total that I
just actually released to my subscribers.
Speaker 3: I'm actually a four percent place. I'm going to give
that to you guys for free.
Speaker 5: Right here.
Speaker 4: We're going to go to Chase Hooper and Alex Hernandez,
Chase Hooper, Alex Hernandez, and we're going to go over
two and a half at even money good to minus
one ten, minus one fifteen. I'm surprised it's not a
minus one fifty line. I mean six out of ten
times this one does go over, but we have a
little recency bias. Chase Hooper three of his last four
have finished inside the distance. He's the favorite in this fight,
obviously a heavy favorite, but even if he gets the
w here, he's just a tough aut Hernandez is tough,
tough as nails. He's got that wrestling background as well,
so he should be able to avoid the submissions from
Chase Hooper, which is the threat for the finish there.
So I agreed with that over that came in like
I always do, I already have my sides and totals circled,
and any of my originators come in on one of
those sides, I'm going to fire, and they came in
on that over.
Speaker 3: So I bet that as well.
Speaker 4: And as everybody knows, it's no secret UFC on the
line put out clips the gambler's perspective, put out clips.
Speaker 3: You know I'm on TREMAIAV in the main event. I
know there's a lot of betters opposite me that see
the champ DDP as the value side. I completely disagree.
Speaker 4: I just think we have fights we could compare where
both of these guys fought the same opponent. Regardless of
the outcome. I'm more interested on how those lines opened,
how they closed. Based on those alone, it looks like
Chamiav's a discount, but just the way they match up
just too much alike on the chamaiavs.
Speaker 1: Side.
Speaker 4: I think when we look back, we'll realize just how
cheap this line actually was. I released it two subscribers
at minus two hundred. Let me see where it is
right now. It's up to minus two fifty two fifty five.
So we got a great line on that fight. If
you think it's a little bit too late since we
got down at two hundred and it's now two fifty.
One of the props that I also sent to my
subscribers one percent play only small little sprinkle. It's chimaiav
in the first round at plus three ten. It's a
valuable plus three hundred in a lot of spots. Again,
I think this one finishes inside the distance. Favored the
finish inside the distance. As every round passes, the probability
of a finish gets cut in half, so usually finishes
happened early. We know Chamaiev comes all out in the
first five minutes. I think it's going to be a
tough five minutes for DUPLESSI I think Chamaiav's able to
take him down, secure that rear naked choke and get
the w.
Speaker 3: Does he make it look that easy?
Speaker 4: I think at plus three hundred, I have to sprinkle
a little something because again he's a finisher, he's.
Speaker 3: A closer, and he closes usually early. And that plus three.
Speaker 4: Hundred got to win that det one out of four
times to break even at plus three ten, even turn
a profit one out of four times. I think that's
very doable. Give me Chamayav, give me Chamaiev in round one.
Speaker 1: Look at that some free action from Yanni, who I
know has some stuff up here on the wager Talk
platforms that you can definitely check out for some more action. Tonight,
we've got NFL preseason as well. How have you been
doing in NFL preseason?
Speaker 3: No?
Speaker 2: No, the overs last week we're insane.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and we actually lost the betting SyncE that gets
lost in the first week of preseason, which is actually
good for now.
Speaker 3: In week two.
Speaker 4: And what we saw was that outlier with the overs
and the market. I think overreacting to those I want
to stress real quickly that you have to get to
this position to make money in preseason. You got to
get to the point that when the line moves so significantly,
you either have to conclude there's value on the opposite
side of the move or let it go. And here's
what I mean. Yesterday was a perfect example of that.
Tennessee was a five to five and a half point favorite.
They got bet down to a two and a half
point favorite. If you're following lines and you're looking at
the screen, you're thinking, wow, the dog's the side.
Speaker 3: The dog got steamed.
Speaker 4: The problem is a lot of betters were betting that
dog at plus two and a half. All the values
been extracted, we went opposite. We actually laid the two
and a half on Tennessee even with all that steam.
Opposite Tennessee for one reason only that the line has
now moved so much that the values on the other
side you can't be afraid to change your opinion when
the line moves so significantly. Again, you're betting numbers, not teams,
So Tennessee minus five and a half and Tennessee minus
two and a half are completely different bets. Just like
taking the dog at plus five and a half and
two and a half are completely different bets. So if
you're messing with the preseason, you have to look at
the opening line. You have to look at where it
sits right now, and if it moves three four five points,
you can no longer.
Speaker 3: Look at that side that's laying those points.
Speaker 4: Even if they win that game and cover, it just
wasn't a good bet. And if you get in the
habit of doing that, when the regular season comes around,
you're gonna get destroyed.
Speaker 3: You just can't chase steam that way. Again.
Speaker 4: There's a reason we stop betting signs. The goal when
they give me a play, my job is to get
them down as much money as possible, because they don't
know how much money we're going to be able to
get them down. So the only goal is get me
as much as possible at that number, knowing that the
market's going to move. So once we unload on that number,
then they look and they say, Okay, how much did
we get down. Do we need to hedge a little
limit some of our risks or are we looking for
even more even now than it adjusted? But you have
to remember, once a line moves that much, there's a
reason they stop betting it, and that's because the value
has been extracted.
Speaker 3: So keep that in mind.
Speaker 4: Make sure you're looking at the Odds Logic screen or
at minimum the wager Talk Free odd screen, and make
sure you click and see where that line opened, where
it originated at, and where it sits right now. And
if you're if you're late to the party, let it go.
There'll be a better bet coming up. Break from behind.
Speaker 1: We've got eleven preseason games in the NFL today, Yanni,
what have your groups been getting some action down on?
Speaker 4: All right, I'm going to read off everything that so
far that's sharp confirmed. Indianapolis over green Bay Indianapolis at
minus four and a half and minus fine. That's why
you're looking at minus six right now. The only reason
that's not seven, only reason it's not seven is because
of the heavy public money on green Bay. So you
have one sided green Bay money from the public and
you have one sided wise guy money on the Indianapolis side.
Speaker 3: So you have a difference of opinion there.
Speaker 4: And every single one of these totals from top to
bottom have been bet over by the recreational betters. I'm
talking it's ninety plus percent overs. It's not even close.
The only game that I'm even seeing some under money,
and it's still heavy towards the over, but at least
there's some under money. It's Arizona Denver. That one at
least is getting some under bets from the recreational betters,
which is why it has it moved up. But be cautious.
A lot of these totals have moved. Let's keep going.
Moved down to the New York Giants. New York Giants,
they took them at plus one and a half and
they laid them all the way up the minus one
and a half. Right now it's minus three, gone three
and a half, gone value, gone over. Got steamed as well,
from thirty seven and a half, thirty eight and a half,
even thirty nine. That's one of those that anything better
than forty. They think the over is the right side.
Keep moving down, La Chargers, obviously that game's gone. Perfect example,
if you got charges minus two and a half or three,
great bet, maybe even four, it's a decent bet.
Speaker 3: But right now it's six and a half and seven.
You can only look through the rams or pass. That's it.
Speaker 4: So it makes your job as a handicapper easily easy.
Because you can't bet the chargers right now. They went
through that key number of three and they're about to
go through that key number seven. What else do I
have for you? There was one more? Oh it was
the total was the total Tampa Pittsford over. That's public
and sharp. Be careful of those. Some of these totals.
The wise guys knew that the public was going to
bet over. Okay, So if you know they're going to
go over, and they're not going to do it till Saturday,
you start betting over six days prior, you go over
thirty six and a half. By Saturday it's thirty eight
and a half, thirty nine and they're still betting it over.
Now you have a situation where they're going to come
in and bet somebody's unders. So watch the on screen
line or like I said, the minimum wager, talk freance
and pay attention. Pay attention to any resistance these totals
that moved up if you start seeing them coming back
the other way. The late money is always the sharpest money,
rest the short early money and late money is usually
the sharpest. But with the late money, you could confirm
because there's no time to manipulate there's no time to maneuver.
So if they're coming in ten minutes fifteen minutes before
a game and steaming it under after that line had
gone over, rest ashore. If it's not a middle opportunity,
like they're not trying to middle, the under is the side,
and the movement up was just dummying it early in
the week because remember, for a couple of nickel bets,
you could domby those lines so easily and get them
moving in the right direction.
Speaker 3: So that's some of the.
Speaker 4: NFL for today, and of course there's some Major League
Baseball that schwamps have already gotten involved in.
Speaker 1: That's obviously why I saved it for last, because it's the.
Speaker 2: Regular season games that we've got on the slate.
Speaker 1: We've got a big slate of Major League Baseball. Ralph
Michaels is going to talk later on in the show
here on Last Call about some more NFL preseason actions,
so we'll get that in.
Speaker 2: Michael Leone.
Speaker 1: Yes, we did cover UFC already, But for Aya Alisandro
MLB series bets, I know Yanni that you're like that.
Speaker 2: So what you see for those series bets.
Speaker 4: Only one was bet before Game one that I have
access to the groups that I work with. Again, I
don't work with every originator out there, but that we
got down with Cincinnati Cincinnati plus one thirty. Problem is
Cincinnati's down two games against Milwaukee. So to push that bet,
we now have to win Cincinnati today and we now
have to win with Cincinnati tomorrow. Fortunately, sharp money on
Cincinnati today Cincinnati plus one ten opposite public heavy public
Milwaukee money. No surprise, they're getting bet every night, but
there is sharp money nine oh six Cincinnati nine oh
one over Pittsburgh and the Cubs at eight and a half.
So the nine is a key number. It got dummied
down for very little money on the overnights, got down
to eight and a half at minus one oh five.
I think that's when the heavy steam came in on
the over eight and a half. Believe it or not
paid Burg Chicago. So if you're looking on the screen,
it looks like the under was the sharp play. Gotta
be careful. That just didn't happen there. Moved down to
nine oh four. Washington big dog, you know, getting them
against the Phillies. It's kind of like they do with Colorado.
They bet Colorado because they figure with Colorado. If we
win one out of the three games, we're gonna break
even or maybe turn a little profit. We win two
out of the three games, like Colorado did in their
last series, we're gonna make a score. So that's what
they're kind of doing with some of these teams that
you're afraid of late in the season.
Speaker 3: Washington's one of them. I'm seeing bets on nine oh.
Speaker 4: Eight Colorado as I touched on Colorado plus one fifty
five and under twelve up to minus one twenty five,
San Diego Dodgers under eight up to minus one twenty five,
nine to twelve, Toronto minus one forty nine thirteen, White
Sox plus one forty plus one thirty five, Athletics minus
one fifteen, and the over ten good to minus one
twenty five, Mets again nine to twenty four New York Mets.
They came in with the Mets yesterday, they're coming right
back with the Mets today plus one ten and finally
Tampa Bay plus one ten. So mostly dogs in Major
League Baseball today, which is mostly what you see down
the stretch at the end of the season, and you're
gonna see a lot of dogs steam especially in late
August in early September, when the must win situations come in,
when those teams that are jockeying for position or to
make the playoffs, make the Wild's Card, they start becoming overvalued.
And that's when you'll start seeing a lot of dogs
getting steamed. And those are gonna be scary dogs, you
know what I mean. Most recreational betters don't want to
bet these bad teams down the stretch, but rest ashore
those bad teams will be undervalued, and it's gonna be
hard making money off the good teams when football gets here,
because they're going to be parlaying a lot of the
baseball earlier in the week, trying to build a little
bank roll for Sunday NFL Saturday College football, and they
do that by parlaying.
Speaker 3: Those big money line favorites.
Speaker 4: Rest assured they're going to be way over valued over
these next couple of weeks.
Speaker 1: I was about to ask you about literally all of
those games, because I saw so much reverse line movement
coming in on. I thought the Met's getting love, I
saw the White Sox getting love, and I saw Colorado
getting love. But Yanni, before I let you go, and
I love that you mentioned all three of those teams,
which we know likely all three probably aren't going to cash,
but those are the ones that caught my eye for sure.
With ten cent moves or more overnight public on the
other side, I get worried that we get those buybacks
because especially the later games, like we've got games coming
up at seven which is the White Sox and Royals
eight which is Arizona, Colorado. You always see that these
groups will buy in on one side early and then
come back on the other side late. How do we
avoid being on the wrong side.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's when your handicap has to come into play
and you have to trust your opinion a little bit.
That's why I always tell my subscribers fire volume because
I bet sized correctly and I've just that's how I've
done it for so long. But you don't have to
do the same thing. You need to narrow down your
positions that you feel strongest about, and then when you
see the market agree with you, don't be afraid to fire.
If later you see some resistance, that's okay if you
have conviction.
Speaker 3: What you don't want to do in those cases is
bet more.
Speaker 4: Okay, But when the opposite happens, and you see confirmation.
That's where it gives you an opportunity to bet more. See,
you want to increase your bets when your edge increases.
A lot of betters do it the opposite way.
Speaker 3: They love a bet.
Speaker 4: They're like, this is a lock, so they just unload
off the start and along the day or sometime even days,
information changes. Things change. You want to give yourself a
chance to maneuver. So that's why I always say you
don't have to go all in on a trade.
Speaker 3: You don't have to.
Speaker 4: You could always level in. So let's say you're going
to bet a one unit. That's that's what you're betting.
You're betting one units. If you're not one hundred percent
confident because you're betting it early, go a half unit.
Speaker 3: If you see the market agree.
Speaker 4: With you and you feel a little more confident, boom
fire that other half a unit. You already got in
good at a best price, so now it's like almost
like dollar cost averaging.
Speaker 3: You might have got in at minus.
Speaker 4: One twenty Okay, now you gotta lay minus one thirty
for the other half of unit. But your average bet
size is still minus one twenty five, so.
Speaker 3: You're still getting some CLV.
Speaker 6: You're still beating the closing line overall, but you were
able to wait for that later confirmation, which now you
got CLV and you're not as worried, so you don't
have to go I know, like sometimes you're like, I
don't want the market to get to move, so I
got to.
Speaker 3: Get my whole bet in.
Speaker 4: You know now when there's time, you don't always have
to do that, especially again, you're not you're not a
betting Cindy. You're not working with these groups. You're not
moving the markets, so you could be more reactionary. And
like I said, don't go all in from the beginning
and fire half of your bet, three quarters of your bet.
When you get confirmation, you could fire some more. If
it goes against you, It's okay, I only went half
a unit. I'm not going to four unit and it
was still my opinion. And you got to remember, these
these sharp signs don't win all the time. They're one
hundred percent right fifty five percent of the time at
mines one ten. That's what I say. The best they
do is fifty five percent. So don't be afraid if
you see some sharp money opposite you. They're not going
to go. You know they're not undefeated, so but when
you get confirmation, fire a little bit more, just sprinkle away.
Speaker 3: Don't be scared, Yanny.
Speaker 1: I know you've got stuff posted here on wager Talk,
and you've got the steam room.
Speaker 2: Is that going on today?
Speaker 3: And what al I had it yesterday because of how
busy it is today. I got an.
Speaker 4: NFL package up there with seven bets already may hire
one more, but I'm going to try to keep it
right around there. I got the UFC package, just added
another play in there with a five percent. I've been
selected with those five percents, having fired one in like
three weeks, got one in the pay per view tonight,
and the course the season package is up NFL College Football.
Then I have my futures pass as well, so much
volume in that future's past.
Speaker 3: Don't let it scare you. But the ROI on those
are so good.
Speaker 4: I was actually comfortable, as I said, I'll high up
twenty five percent of my bank.
Speaker 3: Roll before the season starts, because I.
Speaker 4: Think the ROI is so great that come December January,
my future self is gonna thank my past self for
placing those bets. So I always do it and I'm
not afraid to. But again you could pick and choose
the ones that you like at of it, because we've
got a lot of volume in it.
Speaker 1: Yanni the Greek Vegas Runner, whatever you love to call him,
We love having him every Saturday here on last call.
Speaker 2: Thanks so much for.
Speaker 3: Hopping on, Thanks for having me blockade. Good luck today, brother,
all you guys do some damage.
Speaker 2: Good luck today, Yanni joming up.
Speaker 1: Now, we've got two of the best teams in the
WNBA going head to head as the soul game in
the w today. It's starting a little after two pm
Eastern time, so let's bring on wager Talk's best at
capping the w NBA. We've got mister Ronald Kabang joining
the show.
Speaker 2: What's going on?
Speaker 7: RCA harvery thing is good on my end. Had another
winning day yesterday, so.
Speaker 2: It was a pretty big slate yesterday.
Speaker 7: Yesterday was a big slate. Went three and one now
back over seventy five, seventy six units in the WNBA,
so things are going well. Hoping to close it out
pretty strong here and then you know, obviously build that
bankroll for the NFL season.
Speaker 1: Absolutely and w continues to be profitable here at wager talk.
Speaker 2: So kabang, what do we got today?
Speaker 1: We've got the Links and the Liberty, the two best
teams in the w going head to ahead. I'm seeing
currently that the line moved a point against the Links.
I saw them yesterday at minus two and a half
and now they're at minus one and a half.
Speaker 2: What do you make of it?
Speaker 7: Yeah, this one's pretty interesting because from a schedule perspective,
the Links. The last time the Links played, they played
the Liberty. In the meantime, the Liberty have played.
Speaker 3: Back to back.
Speaker 7: So as far as like rest goes and then schedule whise,
the Links seem like the right side. This is the
Liberty's third road game, eighth road game in the last ten.
They've only covered one game over the previous ten games
as well. A lot of it has to do with, obviously,
you know, having to adjust with Messaman in and Brianna
Stewart out. But the most part they've had to change
their pace and their offense runs a lot differently with
Messaman there instead of Brianna Stewart, So I think that's
just more of an adjustment period. It's gonna be interesting
to see how things happen when you know Stewart. Stewie
comes back. On the Licks side, they are well wrested.
They haven't played since the tenth you know, like I said,
they the Liberty has played it back to back in
the West Coast in the same timeframe that the Links
had six days of rest, so and from a winning perspective.
From a record perspective, they're nine to one over the
last ten seven too, and one ATS in that span,
so ats wise, they're on the opposite ends. Liberty is
still without Stuart Harrison sabily Links will be without the
Pisa choir. She's doubtful, but I mean, obviously I don't
think she's gonna play. So for the Links, you know,
they've won the last two matchups. I mentioned the bad
situational spot, but also from a trend perspective, as road
underdogs like the Liberty are today they're zero and five
straight up and at the number you're really asking to see,
you know, who's gonna win this game? And the Links
on the other side as home favorite sixteen and one
straight up, So trend perspective. Looking to the Links situationally,
Links were looking at stats, the Links the last five
games and recent form better offensively and defensively, they're averaging
ninety three per game. The Liberty are adjusting to their
new pace. Their defense has taken a hit ninth and
defensive ating over the last five. The only edge that
I see that the Liberty have is really from the
three point you know from the above, the break three.
That's where the Links have struggled to defend recently. But
like I said, at this number, we're really asking who's
gonna win this game, and a lot of things are
really pointing towards the Links.
Speaker 1: Here I saw the total kabang sitting at one sixty
six and a half.
Speaker 2: Any thoughts there.
Speaker 7: Yeah, from a trend perspective, a lot of things are
pointing towards the Over. The Links are really strong over
team for the most part, just because of their offense.
But to me, I know, you know, they're missing both
of their top key players. The Liberty are playing a
slower pace. I still think that this is going to
be more of a playoff atmosphere type game, and when
that happens, we're typically looking at a slower pace, more
defensive minded game flow. So I would actually look towards
the Under in this one. I didn't play it, but
you know, whenever there's conflict between a play, you know,
trends looking towards the over situation to the under, it's
obviously a no go for me.
Speaker 2: Kbang.
Speaker 1: There's only one game on the late tonight, but I
know you have a lot of other stuff going on
here at wager Talk.
Speaker 2: What are you provoting today?
Speaker 7: Yeah, I do have a Premier League games that it's
match week one. I do have one there. I mean
from a Trent perspective, just looking since twenty twelve, road
teams in match week one are hitting at a I
think sixty two percent rate. But there's one team specifically
that's eight and one during this time frame. So that's
the play that I have today. I have two five
percent plays. If you've been following my five percent plays,
they've been really good over the last two years forty
three and fourteen. That's over seventy five percent since November
twenty twenty three. There's a five percent in the NFL and.
Speaker 3: In college football.
Speaker 7: So those are available right now and wager Talk has
a deal going on right now for the rest of
twenty twenty five, so you're able to get WNBA, NBA, NFL,
college football, college basseball, all that, all that for the
rest of the year at a discounted rate. That's over
at my Capper page wt Dot buzz Backslash RCD.
Speaker 2: Love to hear it.
Speaker 1: Thanks so much Ronald Gobang for coming on today and
giving us some WNBA, hopefully some winners with this huge
matchup between the Liberty and the Links to do best
teams in the w That game starting a little after
two pm Eastern time. So I have made it the
entire where I have been doing Last Call for Kelly
in Vegas. This is the first time all summer. Then
I get to bring this legend onto the screen. And
of course I know him and I've spoken to him
and I've been on bed on it, but I haven't
gotten to bring him on Last Call. So I get
him to myself. So let's bring on the great Ralph
Michaels talking off things NFL preseasons. We get your questions
down in the chat because we're gonna answer all questions
about the eleven NFL preseason games going on today. Ralph,
I hope you're not muted because the logo there you are.
Speaker 2: I love the background.
Speaker 1: I feel like I'm at the beach. I wish I
was at the beach. I wish I was with Kelly
in Vegas at in Ireland right now, enjoying some case
state week zero in a couple of weeks. But I
am here with you, and that's the second best option.
I've got no offense. Ralph NFL preseason. How's it been
for you?
Speaker 7: Huh?
Speaker 8: Indifferent? I had a couple bad beach yesterday, now three
and three. This preseason still number one over the last
eleven years. The way you're talking, and by the way, Ariel,
the picture is very appropriate. I am down in Daytona
Beach for the winners, so enjoying the view out the ocean.
Speaker 5: You brought up the.
Speaker 8: Overs to start this preseason arial fourteen and three. Let
me put that in perspective. Last year in the preseason
there were forty five games. There were fifteen overs and
thirty unders, so it was sixty seven percent.
Speaker 5: To the under.
Speaker 8: This far, in seventeen games, we've had fourteen overs, so
it is an anomaly.
Speaker 5: I do want to mention this as well. This would
really be.
Speaker 8: If Kelly was sitting here, because it would be like,
why take the points in preseason over the last three years,
the outright winner is now one, two and seven ninety
four percent including seventeen and oh this year. So if
you're thinking about taking the dog, I'll steal one of
vrs lines, perhaps split that and sprinkle some on the
money line.
Speaker 1: We've got a question in the chatter ready for you.
Ralph Titan CT said, any thoughts on Viking's pass?
Speaker 8: Yeah, you know, preseason is such an interesting situation because
you really can't make your decisions earlier in the week.
You've got to read the quotes the morning of. You
got to know who they're playing. And this is a
game where I lean New England, but I'm really not
sure how much Vrabel wants this now again new coach
in New England. But we could go back to Rabel
in Tennessee. He went seven to three straight up his
last ten preseason games, showing the ability to want to
win on Minnesota. You know, McCarthy started last week, he
had a good practice.
Speaker 5: This week he's not playing. The starters are playing, and.
Speaker 8: Dobbs is going to get a lot of action today,
and Dobbs has had a miserable preseason.
Speaker 5: The only way I can lean with this is New England.
Speaker 8: But it did not get to the window because I
needed able to say something positive or show me the rotation,
and when they are vague or don't tell you anything,
it's basically a no play for me, but clear lean
for me with the Patriots.
Speaker 1: Okay, I'm looking at the chat, but I did have
a question because we had some news today from the
Cleveland Browns that we're gonna see Dylan Gabriel under center
for the Browns, and I'm seeing the Browns line at
plus three and a half against the Eagles. Now, I
just saw go down live to three that game, starting
one pm Eastern. Thoughts on the Browns quarterback situation Dylan
Gabriel now starting.
Speaker 8: Well, you know, on a radio show last week, they
were asking me about Sanders playing the majority of the game,
is that a positive or a negative? And I said
this for last week's game when the Browns won thirty
to ten, I said, even if your second or third
string quarterback, you remember Flacco's not getting many reps. Pickett
was hurt, Gabriel was hurt last week. So you had
Sanders taking almost all of the snap ups in the
team versus team scrimmages and in the game. That's a
positive no matter what quarterback you are well now, Sanders.
Speaker 5: Got hurt, Pickett is still banged up.
Speaker 8: Flaco not going to see any action, and they had
a signed Tyrod Taylor, so you're going to see another
quarterback in Dylan Gabriel get a ton of snaps.
Speaker 5: I don't care if you're a rookie or not.
Speaker 8: If you're going to play three quarters against the defense,
you usually can have success. But you know, when I
look at this situation, Cleveland, by the way, under Stefanski
six and oho Ats is an away dog. Sirianni did
win last week against Cincinnati. Prior to that, though, he
was and e Ats at home after that thirty four
to twenty seven win. So while the Browns are playing
and nobody Pittsburgh is a team that has excuse me, Philadelphia,
team that's has success doesn't care to win. So not
to the window again, but I do have a clear
lean on the Browns in this situation.
Speaker 1: Tyrone Boyd, this question was for me, but I'm going
to then relay it to you because I really don't
bet preseason football. Last week, I'm going to tell you though,
the Ravens catching six and a half last week was
an absolute embarrassment for the book because they do. Always
teams care about the preseason. I know last year was
the first losing preseason that Ravens head coach John Harbaugh had.
Last week, though, with the Ravens at home, I just
thought it was way too much of an overreaction for
a Oh, the Ravens aren't starting their starters like they're
still a pretty deep team. But the Ravens in action
again today for the preseason. Any thoughts here on Ravens
at Cowboys, Ravens laying one and a half. Now, I
feel like this is an overreaction with the Ravens winning
last week.
Speaker 8: Let's remember that Harpball was I think nineteen and two
straight up over seven preseasons, but he went oh to
six against the spread the last two years. There were
so many people that lost so much money in twenty
twenty three. Horriba every game, But you have to realize
that quarterbacks and philosophy change. We've had many great preseason
coaches that after their teams have success, they don't need
to show anything. Houston's a team that comes to mind
that I think is very similar to Baltimore a few
years ago. Houston now has success. Ryan's was a preseason
coach that needed to show his team how to win
and give them confidence. Well, now that they've been there
and done that, he's not playing anyone. It doesn't care.
So for me, it's difficult to get to Baltimore. But
Dallas is one of the number one play against teams.
Speaker 5: I don't care who the coach is.
Speaker 8: You have Milton playing majority of the game for the
Cowboys today, so I lean Baltimore and I like the
under in that one.
Speaker 1: So I got invited to this game for Giants Jets
Richard Lockhart. Sorry, I Dan, you put up the other
question first, but I thought Giants are Jets.
Speaker 2: He has Jets money line.
Speaker 1: I was invited to this game today and I said,
I literally could care less to go to my life
to watch the Giants and the Jets preseason game. So
I'm going to stay home. However, I might still watch it.
What do you got here, Ralp, Well, I.
Speaker 5: Really don't have much on this game, Aeriel.
Speaker 8: And you know, guys, there's times, even if you come
on a video, it's time to say you really don't
have an opinion on each way. Now, I will say this,
the Jets dominated those scrimmages. It was pretty embarrassing for
what the Giants did when they went to mono a
mono in their joint practices this week. But there are
times if a coach wants to win and he was
embarrassed in practice, he could get his team to focus
and play well. Now I don't know the Giants situation
well enough to know, you know, if that's going to
be the case. But I look at the Giants, and
you look at last week's game.
Speaker 5: They didn't play well against the Chargers.
Speaker 3: The Chargers are a.
Speaker 8: Team that traditionally don't care that much hardball, changing it
a little bit. But again, you have a new you
have a third year head coach and Dabble and he
is one in five ats going into this game, so
that Dad was now one in six ats. The Jets
need to show some positivity. They're getting a full field
goal and now up to three and a half looking
at the wager talk live on screen, So to me,
Jets and the under again in this one and again, guys,
I listened to VR segment and so many of these
totals are inflated that if you like value, you're getting
a point or two value on almost every game this week.
Speaker 5: If you bet the under.
Speaker 1: As F niner ol San Francisco Niner. Technically, he said,
any thoughts on the Steelers game. They are home to
night seven pm Eastern Time, getting two and a half
against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Speaker 8: Wait a minute, if it's f to s four nine Ers,
why am I looking at the Pittsburgh game. I started
going to I started going to guy, I started going
to my San Francisco notes, and again, Guys, I apologize,
but a lot of this reading I just did right
before the show, So I need to check my notes
that I'm giving you accurate information. You know, in the
Pittsburgh game, Tampa Bay a three point favorite. You know,
there are so many people blowing smoke of Pittsburgh's butt.
I mean, people are now saying this could be the
best defense in the history of the NFL. Well, that's
a lot to say in the preseason, but it does
add pressure to the coaches and the players. Although many
of them won't be playing here, Rudolph is going to
get those to start this week. He is going to
play a significant amount of time as they try to
figure out who comes out of that quarterback trio.
Speaker 5: You know.
Speaker 8: And but for Tampa Bay, I do like Tampa Bay
in this game, Bowle said his starters are gonna play.
Teddy Bridgewater back with the team, will play a lot
this week. Mayfield had the hand injury. They need to
make sure he's ready. You thrash, who's a game time decision?
So a lot of Teddy Bridgewater against the Pittsburgh team
that really doesn't care to win. To me under and
Tampa Bay for this matchup.
Speaker 1: We've got on two, three, four, five one o'clock Eastern
Time games coming up. Ralph Miami, Detroit, Carolina, Houston, Packers, Colts, Patriots, Vikings,
and Browns Eagles. Out of those five games, which one
do you like the best? I know that Andre Sellers
asked about the Panthers.
Speaker 8: Well, I do have a client play on Carolina Houston,
so now it is yours for free.
Speaker 5: This is my only client play.
Speaker 8: Among the one o'clock games, we're getting a total of
thirty nine thirty.
Speaker 5: Nine and a half.
Speaker 8: Now Carolina is going to play both their offensive and
defensive starters for three for three series. That does give
him against edd Houston. Houston didn't play their starters last week,
likely not going to play their starters this week. You
look at Denico Ryans as a head coach one in
seven over under in preseason. He really doesn't care what
his offense is doing now that they have success. To me,
Lean Carolina, but the under is an actual client release.
Speaker 2: Oh, we love to see that.
Speaker 1: I don't do nurfes, unfortunately, Ralph, do you do nurfees?
Speaker 2: I don't do nurfs in your I.
Speaker 8: I you know, Ariel. That's why I haven't been on
the show that much this year. All I've done are nursey's.
In baseball, I do a daily nurfy report on my
page for free wt buzzbackslash RM Monday through Friday. I
do a daily wager Talk YouTube and TikTok videos on
the best streaks the starters, what their no run first
inning records are making you a better better I break
down a segment. I give a free play every week.
Five and one on those free plays last week. So yeah,
do make sure you check out the videos Monday through
Friday and head to my homepage and download the free
Wager Talk First Inning report that is up by nine
am Eastern Monday through Friday.
Speaker 2: Anything else you want to promote today, Ralph, before we
let you go here on this.
Speaker 5: See now, how about we leave it at this.
Speaker 8: You know, I am getting so excited for the NFL
and college football. Last year in college football, I finished
number two. I finished number four in the NFL after
a bad start. But I want to leave you a
little TNA aerial And we know TNA means exactly what
you think it does, trends and angles. So how about this,
this is regular season game one. If you have in
a division opponent that has double revenge in game one
in the NFL, you're forty seven and twenty seven sixty
four percent against the spread. If that division team has
double revenge and is on the road, they are twenty
six and eleven seventy percent. If that team has double
revenge and they're a road dog, a four and a
half in higher ariel, how about twenty one and five
against the spread eighty one percent. Oh yeah, by the way,
the Giants and the Colts are the teams that fit
in that twenty one and five ATS situation for game
one of the regular season.
Speaker 1: Ooh, we absolutely love to see it, and I know
we'll have more those trends coming up on bet on
It with Ralph, Michael says he's going to join the
crew as always talking to my girl Kelly in Vegas
and Sean Michael.
Speaker 2: He is so loyal he is on every single show.
Speaker 1: Ralph, thanks again, good luck with that thing's late of
NFL preseason tonight.
Speaker 5: Thank you.
Speaker 1: We've got five minutes, and no, Dan doesn't have Premie
Lacrosse today because Premie Lacrosse playoffs will start next week,
so we will get that in action after. You know, PL
was like, we just dealt with Kelly and Ariel all
last weekend in Boston. We definitely do not need to
deal with them again for a week. We need a
week off and PL will be here in New Jersey
for their championship weekend the week of my birthday, so
I'm very excited about that as well. Before I let
you guys go, I do have one pitcher prop that
stood out to me today. It is at nine pm
Eastern time, Justin Berlander under sixteen and a half out
to minus one twenty. He's gone under in five of
his last six games at home and Tampa Bay's only
averaging fifteen outs per game against starters. This line also
moved ten cents against the Giants since last night, so
with Berlander at home, line moving against him, Tampa Bay
averaging less than this number and including Orlander not getting
to seventeen outs in five of his last six at home.
I don't mind that under on outs, and I would
also look to fade Arizona in some capacity today, as
the line moved ten cents in favor of the Terrible Rockies.
That's also a contrarian play since the public is ninety
percent of action on Arizona, but that was a ten
set move against them and Ryan Nelson. He allowed six
runs in four innings in his last start against Cores,
which was his only start in altitude at Cores. Nelson's
also gone under his seventeen and a half outs in
eleven of twelve road games. So with the fact that
Nelson struggles on the road to begin with, plus he's
going to coursefield and altitude, stay away from Arizona today.
You can maybe bet the under on Nelson or fade
him in some other capacity, but I would definitely be
staying away from the Dbacks in Major League Baseball. I
think that's all we've got for today's show. I think
this is my last last call Saturday, but I think
there is a plan for me to do Sundays in
the NFL season, so we will see you there. Good
luck to all your bets today. We've got a lot.
We gave out UFC with Yanni, we gave out Major
League Baseball with him, We've got MLB. We have NFL
preseason with Ralph, the sole WNBA game we definitely had
with Ronald Kbang. If you missed any of it, check
out the Wager Talk YouTube page. If you are a
new year, make sure to subscribe. We are very excited
because the NFL season is almost almost here. In college
football is almost almost here, which is why Kelly is
out in Ireland. She's going a week zero of course
for k State. Good luck everybody, We will see you
again soon. I think we're gonna have Steve Merrilan next
week filling in on Last Call again.
Speaker 2: See you in the football season.