WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>Joe Larsgard, who is host of how to Monday, how

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<v Speaker 1>to Money Sundays twelve pm to two pm here on KFI,

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<v Speaker 1>and his social address at how to Money.

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<v Speaker 2>Joel.

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<v Speaker 1>Good morning, Joel, morning Bill. We're such happy campers. Here

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<v Speaker 1>is a story. And the way it works is because

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<v Speaker 1>I'm incredibly lazy. I don't come up with the stories.

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<v Speaker 1>I ask Joel, Okay, what do you want to talk about?

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<v Speaker 1>What's in your wheelhouse? And if I like it, we

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<v Speaker 1>talk about it. If not, I say, now we're going

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<v Speaker 1>to do something else. In any case, a story about

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<v Speaker 1>Amazon that one in eight wardrobe purchases comes from Amazon.

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<v Speaker 2>Now a quick aside.

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<v Speaker 1>I happen to be married to someone who lives for

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<v Speaker 1>buying from Amazon and buys clothes, and we'll buy three

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<v Speaker 1>different sizes and fifteen different colors.

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<v Speaker 2>And returns ninety percent of the boxes.

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<v Speaker 1>And and I'm serious, I had to get an extra

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<v Speaker 1>garbage pant. I had to get an extra one of

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<v Speaker 1>those garbage cans just for recycle because of the boxes

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<v Speaker 1>that I have to take apart and put together.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, it's crazy.

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<v Speaker 1>So the point is it's costing us all money.

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<v Speaker 2>But how is that possible?

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<v Speaker 1>Because I'm paying for you know, the Amazon Prime, and

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<v Speaker 1>I get free obviously, free returns, et cetera.

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<v Speaker 2>So how does it cost you money if I'm paying

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<v Speaker 2>for it?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah?

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<v Speaker 4>All right, So that's a good question, and one your

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<v Speaker 4>partner is not alone in that Amazon obsession. And it's fascinating,

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<v Speaker 4>like this status came out that like, people buy way

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<v Speaker 4>more clothing on Amazon than they even do at Walmart, right,

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<v Speaker 4>and think about Walmart has these physical stores and an

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<v Speaker 4>online presence all around the country, and people are buying

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<v Speaker 4>more than twice as much on Amazon than they are

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<v Speaker 4>via Walmart, both physical and online. And so it's just

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<v Speaker 4>it's crazy to think about that. And Okay, how why

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<v Speaker 4>is this costing us money? And I think it's exactly

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<v Speaker 4>what you refer to with the Amazon Prime. It's like

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<v Speaker 4>frictionless and people are like, I mean, I wasn't planning

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<v Speaker 4>on buying a new skirt or a new T shirt

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<v Speaker 4>or some shorts or some socks or whatever it is today,

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<v Speaker 4>But my goodness, it's so easy. And I was on

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<v Speaker 4>Amazon anyway, and it feeds me, It fed me this thing.

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<v Speaker 4>It popped up and I'm like, yeah, I was about

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<v Speaker 4>to check out, but yeah, I guess I could use

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<v Speaker 4>some new socks, throw them into the cart, you get

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<v Speaker 4>them shipped to your house, and for most people, amazing

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<v Speaker 4>if your spouse actually does make those returns, Bill, I

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<v Speaker 4>have to make the returns at my house because nobody

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<v Speaker 4>else is doing it, and sometimes if I don't do it,

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<v Speaker 4>it doesn't get done and you're stuck with that.

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<v Speaker 3>Good.

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<v Speaker 4>So, I just think that frictionless reality that Amazon has

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<v Speaker 4>created in so many of our lives has led to

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<v Speaker 4>just consuming more, buying more stuff, and buy stuff that

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<v Speaker 4>we otherwise wouldn't have bought.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, fair enough, But how again, I'm going to ask

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<v Speaker 1>the question, I am paying for the service of being

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<v Speaker 1>able to return, how does it cost me? Or how

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<v Speaker 1>does it cost you money? Because I'm doing it and

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<v Speaker 1>paying for it.

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<v Speaker 4>Okay, so when you're making those returns, it there's a

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<v Speaker 4>cost to the retailer.

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<v Speaker 3>Right.

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<v Speaker 4>So even if you're buying stuff and let's say your

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<v Speaker 4>spouse buys in a bunch of different sizes, a bunch

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<v Speaker 4>of different colors and says I'm probably gonna keep twenty

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<v Speaker 4>percent of it.

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<v Speaker 3>And I'm going to return the rest.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, the return looks like it's free for you if

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<v Speaker 4>you drop it off at the right place, you jump

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<v Speaker 4>through the right.

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<v Speaker 3>Hoops, and you have a package correctly.

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<v Speaker 4>But and so that feels all nice and good, but

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<v Speaker 4>it's obviously it's put into the price of the items

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<v Speaker 4>that we're buying. So everything that we buy costs more

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<v Speaker 4>because of the friction list returns also that we're able

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<v Speaker 4>to get. And it is nice where it looks like

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<v Speaker 4>it's free, but it is. Of course, it's functionally put

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<v Speaker 4>into the price of the goods that we're buying.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, mean, that makes sense, But that's second, third tier

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<v Speaker 1>down the road, and it just sort of disappears. And

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<v Speaker 1>let's say I'm buying a twenty dollars item where twenty

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<v Speaker 1>dollars normally would am I? Am I paying twenty two

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<v Speaker 1>dollars for it? Is it a substantial amount? Is there

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<v Speaker 1>real money involved in this?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah?

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<v Speaker 3>I mean I think so.

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<v Speaker 4>There's Actually there's another interesting story I saw in the

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<v Speaker 4>New York Post this week, and what they were saying is,

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<v Speaker 4>like the way that people in the United States have

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<v Speaker 4>gotten accustomed to making returns, many of them have gained

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<v Speaker 4>the system. And so it's not even just the fact

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<v Speaker 4>that you can return something you decided you didn't want.

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<v Speaker 3>It's that people are.

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<v Speaker 4>Saying are essentially trying to cheat the system, returning stuff

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<v Speaker 4>that they otherwise wouldn't be able to return. Some people

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<v Speaker 4>are taking items out of electronics, returning the now unusable,

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<v Speaker 4>unworkable electronics, and retailers aren't catching it. And so I think,

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<v Speaker 4>what this is what's going to happen because of fraudulent

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<v Speaker 4>returns and because of the growing number of overall returns

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<v Speaker 4>which which eats into the bottom line of retailers. I

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<v Speaker 4>believe in the very near future, similar to dynamic pricing

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<v Speaker 4>for tickets that we buy, you're going to have like

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<v Speaker 4>dynamic return policies. So there's gonna be one return policy

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<v Speaker 4>that Bill Handle is held to, and there's another return

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<v Speaker 4>policy that I'm held to by certain retailers based on

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<v Speaker 4>the way I have returned goods that I've purchased from

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<v Speaker 4>that retailer in the past.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, so it's interesting, and again this is because of

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<v Speaker 1>my experience here. When a product is let's say you

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<v Speaker 1>return a product that's defective, it's the honor system because

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<v Speaker 1>you're returning a product you don't like it, and so

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<v Speaker 1>you call the retailer and they say keep it. Just

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<v Speaker 1>keep it, well, refund the money, just keep it. And

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<v Speaker 1>it really is an honor system. It's much like you

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<v Speaker 1>know at offices where you have those little boxes of

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<v Speaker 1>candy bars and snacks, where they say it's a buck

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<v Speaker 1>and it's the honor system. There's no way to check.

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<v Speaker 1>And I'll tell you what I do, and people have

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<v Speaker 1>seen me on the show. What I do is I

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<v Speaker 1>grab a candy bar and take money out of the box.

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<v Speaker 3>See you're the problem. You're the problem here.

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<v Speaker 2>See okay, good enough, Joel.

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<v Speaker 1>We talk a lot about retirement because, first of all,

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<v Speaker 1>you you rightly are concerned about.

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<v Speaker 2>It, because it is no fun being old.

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<v Speaker 1>No one wants to put the address of a dumpster

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<v Speaker 1>when receiving Social Security checks. And there is a general

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<v Speaker 1>rule of four percent. I mean, at the end of

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<v Speaker 1>it all, when you retire, you should pull out four

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<v Speaker 1>percent of your savings, retirement plan, etc. And that theoretically

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<v Speaker 1>keeps you going forever until you die. Actually, the secret

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<v Speaker 1>is to know exactly when you're going to die, and

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<v Speaker 1>if you can calendar it, you spend all your money

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<v Speaker 1>until that last day.

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<v Speaker 2>That's the magic.

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<v Speaker 1>But let's talk about that four percent rule because frankly,

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<v Speaker 1>in my life. I'm looking at the five percent rule

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<v Speaker 1>and I plan on doing that with my retirement when

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<v Speaker 1>I do, so, tell me what's going on and tell

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<v Speaker 1>me how wrong I am.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, if you go see a psychic, you're right

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<v Speaker 4>and you can find that exact date of death. It's

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<v Speaker 4>so much easier to plan for retirement. But because we

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<v Speaker 4>can't or I haven't met anybody that can accurately predict

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<v Speaker 4>that yet, kind of have to like do your best

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<v Speaker 4>and go buy rules of thumb. And this four percent

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<v Speaker 4>rule of thumb has been around now for many decades.

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<v Speaker 4>And this guy, Bill Bengen, he did like a bunch

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<v Speaker 4>of studies about market returns and inflation and longevity, and hey,

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<v Speaker 4>how long will you pull your portfolio last your entire

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<v Speaker 4>retirement if you're drawing down four percent of it? And

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<v Speaker 4>that's basically what was the magic number that he found

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<v Speaker 4>was like, with inflation and potentially inconsistent market returns, the

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<v Speaker 4>vast majority of people are going to be okay taking

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<v Speaker 4>four percent of their overall portfolio out every single year.

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<v Speaker 3>And and so that.

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<v Speaker 4>Has been kind of it's interesting because it got rounded

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<v Speaker 4>down even the original rule he had found that it

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<v Speaker 4>was like four point one five percent, but he rounded

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<v Speaker 4>it down to four just because it was it's gonna

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<v Speaker 4>stick in people's minds better. Well, he has gone back

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<v Speaker 4>to the drawing board and ran more numbers, and you

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<v Speaker 4>said five percent. Actually it's closer to five percent now,

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<v Speaker 4>according to Bill Bengen, he says, four point seven percent

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<v Speaker 4>is what you can more likely take draw down from

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<v Speaker 4>your portfolio every single year in retirement and not run

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<v Speaker 4>the risk of exhausting it.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and that leaves, and then the principle is left.

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<v Speaker 1>You start with a million dollars, you pull out five percent,

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<v Speaker 1>that's fifty thousand dollars a year. Add so security to that,

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<v Speaker 1>let's say three thousand dollars a month. Now you're an

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<v Speaker 1>eight thousand dollars one hundred grand a year. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>you're going to be fine at one hundred thousand dollars

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<v Speaker 1>a year. I mean that really, you can really do

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<v Speaker 1>a nice job with your dumpster at one hundred thousand

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<v Speaker 1>dollars a year. But you know the other issue. I

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<v Speaker 1>talk to some money people and they say, you may

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<v Speaker 1>want to take out more initially because at the end

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<v Speaker 1>of your life, as you get older.

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<v Speaker 2>You're not going to spend as much money.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, that's the other thing. There's so many things to

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<v Speaker 4>factor into this. That's why this is also like a

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<v Speaker 4>rule of thumb, not an actual hard and past rule.

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<v Speaker 4>And there's just so many different things that that people

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<v Speaker 4>have to consider when they're trying to figure out, well,

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<v Speaker 4>how much will I need for my retirement portfolio.

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<v Speaker 3>I think this is good news on a couple fronts.

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<v Speaker 4>If you can delay social Security, it means you need

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<v Speaker 4>even less because you're going to get a bigger Social

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<v Speaker 4>Security check. And on top of that, it means you

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<v Speaker 4>actually might have to save up less than you think.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, sometimes people get those numbers from the retirement

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<v Speaker 4>company commercials, the broker's firm, saying your magic number is

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<v Speaker 4>four million dollars, that's how much you need to save up,

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<v Speaker 4>and I think it boggles people's minds and like, I'm

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<v Speaker 4>never going to get there. And when you realize that

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<v Speaker 4>you can take a larger percentage of your portfolio every year,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, keep most of that principle intact, and survive

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<v Speaker 4>retirement incredibly, well, then it means you can, instead of

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<v Speaker 4>trying to save up more and live life high on

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<v Speaker 4>the hog with just more money coming in, you can

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<v Speaker 4>just deprioritize how much you need to have in reserves

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<v Speaker 4>when you reach retirement, which might sound like terrible advice

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<v Speaker 4>from someone who wants you to have a great life

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<v Speaker 4>in retirement, but for a lot of people, what that

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<v Speaker 4>means is skimping out on life in the here and now,

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<v Speaker 4>spending less on these of release. Yeah, and so you're

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<v Speaker 4>investing so much for those future years, and then you're like,

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<v Speaker 4>am I actually going to be alive to enjoy them?

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<v Speaker 4>So I think this should give people a little bit

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<v Speaker 4>of a sigh of relief. Yeah, maybe I can spend

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<v Speaker 4>something close to that upper four low five percent range

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<v Speaker 4>in some of those retirement years, not run out of money,

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<v Speaker 4>and not feel like I have to break my back

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<v Speaker 4>during those working years to a mass even more than

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<v Speaker 4>I actually need.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>My mother died at ninety eight, and her retirement plan

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<v Speaker 1>was terrific. She ran out of money when she was

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<v Speaker 1>about eighty five, but she had a secret retirement plan

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<v Speaker 1>named Bill Handle and let me tell you when you

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<v Speaker 1>know what. When she passed away, I became fairly wealthy

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<v Speaker 1>because I didn't have to pay one hundred thousand dollars

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<v Speaker 1>a year to support her. But hey, that's the other issue,

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<v Speaker 1>and we'll do that probably in the next few weeks.

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<v Speaker 1>If you need care in your elder years assisted living,

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<v Speaker 1>you are screwed beyond unscrewed.

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<v Speaker 4>Oh that's another subject for another day. Is long term

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<v Speaker 4>care insurance and when does it make sense? Because it's

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<v Speaker 4>quite expensive and the average person doesn't have the money

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<v Speaker 4>to fund a long term care plan because of how

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<v Speaker 4>expensive they gotten. The premiums have gotten out of control,

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<v Speaker 4>and for some people it's necessary, but for others it's not.

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<v Speaker 3>So we could definitely talk about that one of these days.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, my mom lost it at ninety three. She was

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<v Speaker 1>in so serious de men. She didn't know where she

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<v Speaker 1>was and I kept her at that place. I should

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<v Speaker 1>have put her on the sidewalk. She wouldn't know the difference.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, we're done, John, damn right.

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<v Speaker 1>I am Joel this Sunday twelve to two pm here

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<v Speaker 1>on KFI. He's at How to Money, Joel. Catch you

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<v Speaker 1>over the weekend, Joel, Take care.

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<v Speaker 3>Thanks Bill,