WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.080 --> 00:00:03.640 We're freezing prices for two years in the Virgin Media playhouse. 2 00:00:03.879 --> 00:00:07.240 Switch to our super fast, reliable broadband now and freeze 3 00:00:07.240 --> 00:00:10.279 your prices or all broadband offers for twenty four months 4 00:00:10.359 --> 00:00:13.599 from just thirty five euro month with no activation fee. 5 00:00:13.679 --> 00:00:17.760 Switch in store or at Virgin Media dot Ie Virgin Media. 6 00:00:17.960 --> 00:00:18.879 It's playtime. 7 00:00:19.039 --> 00:00:22.000 Tcenc's applied subject to availability new broadband customers and twenty 8 00:00:22.000 --> 00:00:24.120 four month contracts only. You won't receive a price increase 9 00:00:24.160 --> 00:00:26.079 with the duration of this contract from thirty five yuro 10 00:00:26.079 --> 00:00:28.559 a month for twenty four months seventy euro thereafter. Its 11 00:00:28.559 --> 00:00:30.039 February eighteenth, twenty twenty six. 12 00:00:30.199 --> 00:00:33.079 Oh hi, it's that vitamin stuck in your throat. I'm 13 00:00:33.079 --> 00:00:36.039 so sorry, Ali Ward. How do I even start this? Okay, 14 00:00:36.479 --> 00:00:38.439 we're going to chechat about the weather in a way 15 00:00:38.439 --> 00:00:41.240 that is anything but small talk. As it turns out, 16 00:00:41.560 --> 00:00:44.039 the stuff that's all around us is just raging and 17 00:00:44.200 --> 00:00:48.280 swirling and heavy with emotion. And likewise, I don't even 18 00:00:48.320 --> 00:00:51.200 know how to preface this ologist experience. His bio is 19 00:00:51.240 --> 00:00:56.200 the longest list of accredations and awards and bonkers important 20 00:00:56.280 --> 00:00:59.399 jobs I have ever seen. I do not know how 21 00:00:59.439 --> 00:01:02.920 someone at chieves so much high level and deeply important 22 00:01:02.920 --> 00:01:06.359 work in one lifetime, and I'm shocked he said yes 23 00:01:06.400 --> 00:01:08.920 to do this. So several folks told me to find 24 00:01:09.000 --> 00:01:10.719 him and beg him to be friends, which I did. 25 00:01:11.040 --> 00:01:12.560 And this one has been in the works for a 26 00:01:12.560 --> 00:01:15.319 couple of years. So he got his bachelor's, his MS, 27 00:01:15.319 --> 00:01:19.079 and his PhD in Physical meteorology from Florida State University. 28 00:01:19.359 --> 00:01:22.319 He's been a NASA researcher, the president of the American 29 00:01:22.319 --> 00:01:26.280 Meteorological Society, where he now holds a rare distinction of 30 00:01:26.319 --> 00:01:29.359 being a Fellow. He was awarded the Presidential Early Career 31 00:01:29.480 --> 00:01:32.840 Award for Weather and Climate Research by the White House, 32 00:01:33.040 --> 00:01:36.000 and in twenty twenty one, he received the American Geological 33 00:01:36.000 --> 00:01:40.359 Institute's Award for Outstanding contributions to the public understanding of 34 00:01:40.400 --> 00:01:45.799 the geosciences. He's advised the US Senate, the Department of Defense, 35 00:01:46.319 --> 00:01:50.359 and Congress on climate and extreme weather. He's currently a 36 00:01:50.439 --> 00:01:54.560 Distinguished Professor of Geography and Atmospheric Sciences at the University 37 00:01:54.599 --> 00:01:57.840 of Georgia, and this past year he was selected as 38 00:01:57.920 --> 00:02:00.959 Professor of the Year. He also co hosts the Weather 39 00:02:01.079 --> 00:02:04.680 Channel's excellent podcast Weather Geeks. He writes for Forbes. He's 40 00:02:04.760 --> 00:02:09.120 authored several books, including a kid's book called Doctor Fred's Weatherwatch. Frankly, 41 00:02:09.280 --> 00:02:11.599 I was lucky to weasele my way onto his schedule, 42 00:02:11.879 --> 00:02:14.759 so we hopped on our respective Mike's and I asked 43 00:02:14.840 --> 00:02:17.039 him all kinds of questions that were way below his 44 00:02:17.080 --> 00:02:19.120 pay grade. But before we get there, just a quick 45 00:02:19.120 --> 00:02:21.479 thanks to everyone who supports the show at Patreon dot 46 00:02:21.479 --> 00:02:24.280 com slash ologies a dollar or more a month gets 47 00:02:24.280 --> 00:02:26.479 you in the club, and you could submit questions ahead 48 00:02:26.479 --> 00:02:30.080 of time. Ologies merch is available at ologiesmarch dot com. 49 00:02:30.199 --> 00:02:32.159 And thank you to everyone who just supports by telling 50 00:02:32.199 --> 00:02:35.520 a friend or by rating or subscribing or leaving reviews. 51 00:02:35.599 --> 00:02:38.639 I literally do read them all in his proof. Thank 52 00:02:38.680 --> 00:02:41.759 you Zachary Dakery, who wrote this review this week, saying 53 00:02:41.800 --> 00:02:44.199 Ali Ward is the best thing to listen to while 54 00:02:44.280 --> 00:02:47.639 driving a garbage truck, best binge worthy podcast out there. 55 00:02:47.680 --> 00:02:50.240 I will even stop my truck to charge my headphones 56 00:02:50.280 --> 00:02:53.400 to keep listening for my entire shift. Drive safely, Zachary Dacre, 57 00:02:53.520 --> 00:02:55.560 thank you for the work you do. Everyone listened to 58 00:02:55.639 --> 00:02:58.000 discard Anthropology if you hadn't, it's such a good one, 59 00:02:58.080 --> 00:02:59.479 So thanks for the work. You do. I hope someone 60 00:02:59.520 --> 00:03:02.879 brings cookie your garage and if anyone left a review, no, 61 00:03:03.039 --> 00:03:06.199 I have read it. Okay, let's get into meteorology. Legend 62 00:03:06.240 --> 00:03:08.960 has it the field was named by Aristotle, who wrote 63 00:03:09.000 --> 00:03:13.039 a tome about weather and named it meteorologica, from a 64 00:03:13.159 --> 00:03:17.159 root word meteor for lofty. So stuff above us. So 65 00:03:17.560 --> 00:03:20.520 let's get to what is over our heads. Let's get 66 00:03:20.520 --> 00:03:28.159 into our domes and get ready for tornadoes, typhoons, wind, rain, forecasting, newscasting, 67 00:03:28.599 --> 00:03:34.400 wet bowl globes, wind chill, humidity, polar vortices, atmospheric rivers, 68 00:03:34.520 --> 00:03:39.479 bomb cyclones, storm chasing, climate delaying, pop cultural weather phenomena, 69 00:03:39.639 --> 00:03:44.960 and more. With the distinguished icon of Atmospheric Sciences, professor 70 00:03:45.039 --> 00:03:50.039 and lifelong meteorologist and weather geek, Doctor Marshall Sheppard. 71 00:04:08.280 --> 00:04:14.000 Doctor Marshall Shepherd. I guess I'm he But what else 72 00:04:14.039 --> 00:04:14.479 did you ask? 73 00:04:15.120 --> 00:04:18.399 Oh? That's it, that's all. Yeah. So I've been wanting 74 00:04:18.399 --> 00:04:21.079 to talk to you for literally years. Business. 75 00:04:21.079 --> 00:04:21.360 Thank you. 76 00:04:21.360 --> 00:04:25.680 Pretty exciting. They are one of the most celebrated meteorologists 77 00:04:25.720 --> 00:04:28.319 in the country and I'm sure you have to get 78 00:04:28.879 --> 00:04:30.480 you have to explain this a lot to people. But 79 00:04:30.680 --> 00:04:33.879 the difference between being a meteorologist and being a weather person. 80 00:04:34.279 --> 00:04:35.079 There's a difference. 81 00:04:35.279 --> 00:04:39.680 Yes, yeah, so you know, I get called the weatherman 82 00:04:39.759 --> 00:04:42.879 a lot or the weather guy. And then you know, 83 00:04:42.920 --> 00:04:45.360 the really derogatory term that I hear from some of 84 00:04:45.399 --> 00:04:47.920 my female colleagues is when they call them weather girls. 85 00:04:48.480 --> 00:04:52.959 These are celebrated scientists with degrees. They're women, they're not 86 00:04:53.079 --> 00:04:55.560 weather girls. But yeah, you're You're really on to a 87 00:04:55.560 --> 00:05:00.079 point because the term meteorologists is synonymous with weatherman for 88 00:05:00.199 --> 00:05:02.920 most of the public. But there are different types of 89 00:05:02.959 --> 00:05:05.480 meteorologists in the same way that there are different types 90 00:05:05.480 --> 00:05:09.319 of engineers. In fact, only a small percentage of our 91 00:05:09.399 --> 00:05:13.160 field are TV meteorologists or what we call broadcast meteorologists 92 00:05:13.199 --> 00:05:17.279 or weathercasters. And even within that group there's a range. 93 00:05:17.319 --> 00:05:20.360 There are actually some people that have meteorology degrees, and 94 00:05:20.399 --> 00:05:24.120 you'll see the ams seal by their name typically or 95 00:05:24.120 --> 00:05:27.680 some other seal. There's some people that have more journalism 96 00:05:27.720 --> 00:05:31.240 backgrounds but report the weather and so forth, although there's 97 00:05:31.600 --> 00:05:34.439 less of that and more degree meteorologists. So, yeah, I'm 98 00:05:34.480 --> 00:05:37.439 a meteorologist that doesn't do forecasting, and I'm not on 99 00:05:37.519 --> 00:05:39.639 TV unless I'm a special guest on the weather channel, 100 00:05:39.720 --> 00:05:40.800 or so he. 101 00:05:40.879 --> 00:05:43.240 Joins us now from Gwennette County, Georgia. 102 00:05:42.920 --> 00:05:44.920 Doctor Shepherd, thank you so much for being here today. 103 00:05:45.279 --> 00:05:48.639 When it comes to meteorology, how do you think that 104 00:05:48.839 --> 00:05:52.120 people choose their field, because I do think so many 105 00:05:52.160 --> 00:05:56.399 people think meteorology is just forecasting. But how did you 106 00:05:56.480 --> 00:05:58.920 pick what you do and what are some of the options? 107 00:05:59.519 --> 00:06:02.040 Yes, question. I got interested in this in sixth grade, 108 00:06:02.040 --> 00:06:04.920 as most meteor illists do. I did a science project 109 00:06:04.959 --> 00:06:07.839 kind of sixth grade or predict the weather that started 110 00:06:07.839 --> 00:06:09.480 because I got stung by a bee. I wanted to 111 00:06:09.480 --> 00:06:11.720 be an entomologist, but I got stung by a bee 112 00:06:11.759 --> 00:06:15.199 and found out I was highly allergic to beastings and said, well, 113 00:06:15.199 --> 00:06:18.079 I need a plan. B punt intended, and so I 114 00:06:18.199 --> 00:06:21.160 did my science project on weather. So at that point 115 00:06:21.199 --> 00:06:23.800 I was bitten by the weather bug. Second punt intended. 116 00:06:24.120 --> 00:06:27.319 And so from that point on, I knew I didn't 117 00:06:27.360 --> 00:06:30.399 want to be on TV pointing out a screen with colfronts, 118 00:06:30.439 --> 00:06:32.000 and I knew I didn't want to be a forecaster. 119 00:06:32.120 --> 00:06:35.480 I was more interested in the house and why of weather, 120 00:06:35.680 --> 00:06:38.600 like why does that hurricane get stronger than others? And 121 00:06:38.839 --> 00:06:42.079 wide are certain storms spent out tornadoes and some storms don't. 122 00:06:42.240 --> 00:06:46.319 And so that's when I started investigating schools and Florida 123 00:06:46.319 --> 00:06:49.040 State University. I'm from Georgia, and Florida State was the 124 00:06:49.079 --> 00:06:52.199 closest meteorology program. And the rest is hisstory. I went 125 00:06:52.240 --> 00:06:55.439 on to graduate school, ultimately got a master's in a PhD. 126 00:06:55.639 --> 00:06:59.160 Worked at NASA for a while developing large space missions 127 00:06:59.160 --> 00:07:00.399 to study weather and climate. 128 00:07:00.800 --> 00:07:04.319 So doctor Shepherd spent a mere twelve years as a 129 00:07:04.360 --> 00:07:09.160 research meteorologist at Nasogadard Space Flight Center and was the 130 00:07:09.240 --> 00:07:13.639 deputy Project scientist for the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission, just 131 00:07:14.639 --> 00:07:17.319 casually one of the best meteorologists in the. 132 00:07:17.240 --> 00:07:22.399 World and now still do high level research, teach, and 133 00:07:22.560 --> 00:07:25.360 do a lot of other things as well. But to 134 00:07:25.439 --> 00:07:27.680 really answer the second part of your question, what are 135 00:07:27.720 --> 00:07:30.480 some of the other options? Again, I think about nine 136 00:07:30.560 --> 00:07:33.720 to ten percent of our field work as TV meteorologists. 137 00:07:34.680 --> 00:07:38.600 Others go into sort of more private sector for airlines 138 00:07:38.800 --> 00:07:43.560 or other commodities companies, power companies, energy companies, and so forth. 139 00:07:44.120 --> 00:07:46.319 There are quite a few meteorologists that work in federal 140 00:07:46.360 --> 00:07:49.879 agencies like the National Weather Service or NASA and Noah. 141 00:07:50.279 --> 00:07:54.240 So, Noah is not a guy or a biblical rising 142 00:07:54.279 --> 00:07:57.199 ocean's flood reference, but it just stands for the National 143 00:07:57.240 --> 00:08:01.839 Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, AIR and c EPA. 144 00:08:02.319 --> 00:08:05.480 State agencies have meteorologists, and then a lot of private 145 00:08:05.519 --> 00:08:08.480 companies are now developing interest in weather and whether it 146 00:08:08.560 --> 00:08:12.839 be IBM or formerly for that Panasonic and even smaller 147 00:08:12.879 --> 00:08:15.800 companies as well. So weather, there's quite a few places 148 00:08:16.120 --> 00:08:19.839 atmospheric scientists, which is the broader term including meteorologists and 149 00:08:19.839 --> 00:08:21.120 climate scientists can work. 150 00:08:22.399 --> 00:08:26.480 Is it such a good meteorology program at Florida State 151 00:08:26.560 --> 00:08:30.600 because there's so much weather there? Would that program suck 152 00:08:30.639 --> 00:08:31.079 in La? 153 00:08:31.800 --> 00:08:34.559 No? I mean UCLA has a really good meteorology program 154 00:08:34.600 --> 00:08:37.759 actually the bit so no, I don't think it has 155 00:08:37.759 --> 00:08:40.039 anything to do with the geography, although it does have 156 00:08:40.080 --> 00:08:43.960 a reputation for being pretty good at tropical meteorology expertise 157 00:08:44.000 --> 00:08:47.279 there so obviously being close to Florida. Even as we're 158 00:08:47.279 --> 00:08:50.600 recording this podcast today, Tallahassee, Florida, which is where Florida 159 00:08:50.600 --> 00:08:55.240 State is, is probably experiencing the tropical storm Nicole as 160 00:08:55.240 --> 00:08:56.960 we speak, and just FRII. 161 00:08:57.000 --> 00:09:00.519 So Nicole ended up being a Category one hurricane about 162 00:09:00.559 --> 00:09:02.960 seventy five miles an hour is what it made landfall 163 00:09:03.000 --> 00:09:06.440 at and it caused eleven deaths and five hundred and 164 00:09:06.440 --> 00:09:09.879 twenty million dollars in damages. And now, if a tropical 165 00:09:09.919 --> 00:09:14.840 storm develops in the North Atlantic or the North Pacific 166 00:09:15.080 --> 00:09:17.559 in the east off the coast of the US and Canada, 167 00:09:17.919 --> 00:09:21.360 and has sustained winds of seventy four miles per hour 168 00:09:21.440 --> 00:09:24.840 or faster, we call it a hurricane. But if they 169 00:09:24.879 --> 00:09:28.240 form over the South Pacific and the Indian Ocean, they 170 00:09:28.279 --> 00:09:31.240 would like to go buy cyclones please, Well, then what 171 00:09:31.279 --> 00:09:34.000 are typhoons? This is a great question. I'm glad you asked. 172 00:09:34.120 --> 00:09:37.240 Those are the same thing. But they're over the Northwest 173 00:09:37.360 --> 00:09:39.799 Pacific off the coast of Asia. So we could do 174 00:09:39.960 --> 00:09:45.759 a whole episode on intraplanetary meteorology terminology, trust me. And 175 00:09:46.159 --> 00:09:50.759 what about learning about the weather on planet Earth versus 176 00:09:50.879 --> 00:09:52.399 working for NASA. 177 00:09:52.320 --> 00:09:57.799 We didn't study other planets whether we were studying weather. Yeah, 178 00:09:57.879 --> 00:10:01.240 NASA has a very robust Earth sign program. So yeah, 179 00:10:01.240 --> 00:10:04.240 that's another misconception that I often get in the same 180 00:10:04.240 --> 00:10:05.960 way that people would ask me if I were with 181 00:10:05.960 --> 00:10:09.000 the weather. Most people hear NASA think space out and 182 00:10:09.039 --> 00:10:11.799 looking at Mars and places. But a large part of 183 00:10:11.799 --> 00:10:14.919 what NASA does and still does, is to develop missions 184 00:10:14.919 --> 00:10:20.519 to study Earth's weather, climate, oceans, volcanic eruptions, changes in 185 00:10:20.559 --> 00:10:24.639 the criosphere, which is like greenland and Arctic ice sheets, 186 00:10:24.639 --> 00:10:27.080 and are antarctics. So yeah, that's one of the things 187 00:10:27.120 --> 00:10:30.360 that I'm glad you asked because NASA studies planet. I 188 00:10:30.480 --> 00:10:33.159 argue it studies the most important planet of all Earth, 189 00:10:33.200 --> 00:10:34.759 because that's where we live and we're not going to 190 00:10:34.759 --> 00:10:38.360 be going anywhere for some time. So thankfully NASA devotes 191 00:10:38.399 --> 00:10:41.120 quite a bit of its resources and expertise to studying 192 00:10:41.159 --> 00:10:43.120 this planet using the vantage point of space. 193 00:10:43.679 --> 00:10:48.159 Mm hm, climate versus weather. How many times a day 194 00:10:48.279 --> 00:10:49.840 do you have to explain the difference? 195 00:10:50.320 --> 00:10:53.240 Yeah, I know you're you're hitting all the common misconceptions 196 00:10:53.240 --> 00:10:55.759 that I deal with in my field. So this we're 197 00:10:55.799 --> 00:10:58.000 going to like take a number here. So you know, 198 00:10:58.200 --> 00:11:00.120 you know, it's getting to be the cold season, and 199 00:11:00.519 --> 00:11:02.720 you know, we'll start seeing snow and colder weather, and 200 00:11:02.759 --> 00:11:05.879 inevitably I'll have someone tweet me, hey, doctor Shepherd, I've 201 00:11:05.919 --> 00:11:08.360 got twenty inches of global warming in my yard. It's 202 00:11:08.360 --> 00:11:11.159 snowing out here in Boston. In January, why you guys 203 00:11:11.279 --> 00:11:14.480 keep talking about this climate change stuff. And so after 204 00:11:14.519 --> 00:11:17.559 I kind of fix my face and sort of roll 205 00:11:17.639 --> 00:11:19.320 my eyes a little bit, I say, well, you know, 206 00:11:19.960 --> 00:11:22.639 it's winter in Boston. You're supposed to get snow first 207 00:11:22.679 --> 00:11:25.279 of all. But then secondly, I say, you know, weather 208 00:11:25.399 --> 00:11:28.440 is your mood and climate is your personality. Something I'd 209 00:11:28.480 --> 00:11:29.960 like to say. You may have heard me say it 210 00:11:30.879 --> 00:11:34.759 that the weather today doesn't say anything about climate anymore 211 00:11:34.799 --> 00:11:37.240 than your mood tells me about your personality. And so 212 00:11:38.000 --> 00:11:41.799 it's a really ill posed premise to suggest it because 213 00:11:41.799 --> 00:11:45.240 it's snowing in Boston on Tuesday in January, that that 214 00:11:45.399 --> 00:11:48.000 somehow refutes climate change and global warming. 215 00:11:48.200 --> 00:11:49.840 Okay, so in a bit we're going to cover why 216 00:11:49.919 --> 00:11:52.960 a warming climate would make digging your car out of 217 00:11:52.960 --> 00:11:56.120 the snow a more giant pain in the ass. Trust me, Nerds. 218 00:11:56.399 --> 00:11:59.919 You know your podcast is called Weather Geeks. Do you 219 00:12:00.320 --> 00:12:03.320 feel like you are kind of geeky about this? Does 220 00:12:03.360 --> 00:12:05.279 it get you really excited? Yeah? 221 00:12:05.320 --> 00:12:08.000 Totally. Yeah. No. The Weather Channel, when they came to 222 00:12:08.039 --> 00:12:09.879 me about hosting The Weather Geeks, we did it as 223 00:12:09.879 --> 00:12:11.679 a TV show for four or five years on the 224 00:12:11.679 --> 00:12:14.919 Weather Channel came on on Sunday afternoon, and then we 225 00:12:15.000 --> 00:12:17.960 just realized the changing landscape of how can people consume information? 226 00:12:18.039 --> 00:12:20.720 So we switched it to a podcast. Nice move, ken, 227 00:12:21.120 --> 00:12:25.080 and we embraced the term weather geek because people call 228 00:12:25.159 --> 00:12:28.240 us weather geeks anyway, or weather weenies or weather nerds. 229 00:12:28.639 --> 00:12:32.000 But we wanted to empower the term weather geek because 230 00:12:32.480 --> 00:12:35.200 you know, some people often use the term maybe in 231 00:12:35.240 --> 00:12:39.759 a more sort of derogatory or spiteful or slide I 232 00:12:39.759 --> 00:12:43.440 guess the word insulting manner. But we wanted to flip it. 233 00:12:43.480 --> 00:12:45.200 We wanted to own it, and so that's why we 234 00:12:45.240 --> 00:12:46.840 call our podcast weather Geeks. 235 00:12:47.200 --> 00:12:51.279 I love that it's something that you have so much 236 00:12:51.320 --> 00:12:53.679 knowledge and you're so authoritative about, but that you still 237 00:12:53.679 --> 00:12:55.960 love so much. Weather gets such a bad rap in 238 00:12:56.000 --> 00:12:58.399 conversation of people talking about the weather. But what could 239 00:12:58.399 --> 00:13:01.240 be more exciting than like, store, whether or not you're 240 00:13:01.279 --> 00:13:03.600 going to have to wear a jacket, or if your 241 00:13:03.840 --> 00:13:04.840 crops are going to grow? 242 00:13:05.519 --> 00:13:07.600 Yeah, all of those And you just even touched on 243 00:13:07.639 --> 00:13:11.039 another misconceptionist out there, because you're right, weather is often 244 00:13:11.080 --> 00:13:14.120 a conversation point and it makes us struggle. For those 245 00:13:14.120 --> 00:13:16.279 of us that are scientists in this field because everyone 246 00:13:16.360 --> 00:13:19.759 experiences the weather, and so because of that, everyone thinks 247 00:13:19.759 --> 00:13:21.679 they know as much about it as people would degree. 248 00:13:22.480 --> 00:13:25.519 And so I'll often have people come up and challenge 249 00:13:25.559 --> 00:13:28.360 me on the forecast or about climate change, and they're 250 00:13:28.399 --> 00:13:31.279 totally wrong, but you know, it's an opportunity to sort 251 00:13:31.279 --> 00:13:34.080 of share and educate. So for example, you know, people 252 00:13:34.120 --> 00:13:36.159 will often say, you know, whether you're all just in 253 00:13:36.279 --> 00:13:38.759 forecasts are wrong most of the time. Well, actually they're 254 00:13:38.840 --> 00:13:42.919 right almost all of the time, about ninety five percent 255 00:13:42.960 --> 00:13:45.679 of the time within three to five days. It's just 256 00:13:45.720 --> 00:13:48.679 that it's human nature for people to remember the bad ones. 257 00:13:49.000 --> 00:13:50.720 And they are few bad ones, but those are the 258 00:13:50.759 --> 00:13:52.879 ones they remember if their cookout was rained on or 259 00:13:52.919 --> 00:13:55.879 their child soccer game got it rained on. But you know, 260 00:13:56.600 --> 00:13:59.639 I'll use a football analogy. You know, a field goal 261 00:13:59.679 --> 00:14:02.639 kicker kicks a field goal and they make every single 262 00:14:02.759 --> 00:14:05.600 field goal all year long. That's a really good kicker. 263 00:14:05.879 --> 00:14:08.080 But if they miss one field goal in Super Bowl 264 00:14:08.279 --> 00:14:10.320 that could have won the game, people are going to 265 00:14:10.360 --> 00:14:13.840 be remembering and talking about that kick and wow, that kicker, 266 00:14:13.919 --> 00:14:16.919 he stinks, and oh my gosh, you know, fire him. 267 00:14:17.080 --> 00:14:18.639 But in fact, he's a really good kicker. He just 268 00:14:18.679 --> 00:14:21.440 missed that one. And so, you know, people don't tend 269 00:14:21.480 --> 00:14:24.159 to remember all the days that were right in terms 270 00:14:24.200 --> 00:14:26.639 of the forecast, so they sort of anchor on those 271 00:14:26.679 --> 00:14:30.360 sort of more isolated and fewer bad forecasts. 272 00:14:30.879 --> 00:14:34.840 So don't blame the messenger for the nature of statistics. Folks. 273 00:14:35.000 --> 00:14:38.080 Just keep an umbrella in your bag and a smile 274 00:14:38.120 --> 00:14:41.240 on your face. You're alive. And there are crickets and 275 00:14:41.320 --> 00:14:46.720 birds and sunsets and electricity and indoor plumbing. And how 276 00:14:46.879 --> 00:14:50.639 much has weather science changed since you've been studying it, 277 00:14:50.679 --> 00:14:53.000 and even just since the Industrial Revolution? 278 00:14:53.519 --> 00:14:56.200 It's really, you know, quite a few changes. Just our 279 00:14:56.240 --> 00:14:58.799 ability to observe aspects of the weather with different types 280 00:14:58.840 --> 00:15:02.399 of satellites and race our systems and so forth has changed. 281 00:15:02.440 --> 00:15:05.759 The speed of computers means that our weather models have 282 00:15:05.799 --> 00:15:06.799 gotten so much better. 283 00:15:07.120 --> 00:15:09.120 And this part was absolutely news to me. 284 00:15:10.000 --> 00:15:12.399 You know, weather forecasting is done by solving these very 285 00:15:12.440 --> 00:15:15.600 complex fluid dynamics equations. That's why people that want to 286 00:15:15.600 --> 00:15:17.879 be a meteorologist have to take so much calculus and 287 00:15:18.200 --> 00:15:22.159 dynamics and thermodynamics and physics. You know, I, as a 288 00:15:22.440 --> 00:15:24.559 director of a major program, I have students come to 289 00:15:24.600 --> 00:15:27.120 me all the time. Oh I love clouds, I love hurricanes, 290 00:15:27.159 --> 00:15:29.759 I love storm chasing. I want to be a meteorologists. 291 00:15:29.759 --> 00:15:30.840 I want to be in your program. I was like, 292 00:15:30.879 --> 00:15:33.440 that's fine, I said, but how's your calculus and how's 293 00:15:33.480 --> 00:15:36.039 your physics and how are your partial differential equations because 294 00:15:36.039 --> 00:15:37.919 that's what's mostly going to be in the classes you'll 295 00:15:37.919 --> 00:15:41.039 be taking, and so it's a really an interesting sort 296 00:15:41.039 --> 00:15:43.320 of shock to the system for many of these students. 297 00:15:43.360 --> 00:15:47.200 But you know, the observations, the computing capacity and capabilities. 298 00:15:47.639 --> 00:15:50.919 One thing that's really big right now is social sciences. 299 00:15:51.360 --> 00:15:54.679 There are a lot of psychologists and sociologists and communications 300 00:15:54.720 --> 00:15:57.639 experts working at the intersection of weather right now because 301 00:15:57.759 --> 00:16:03.080 they're trying to understand how people receive information about forecast. 302 00:16:03.159 --> 00:16:05.879 Do they make decisions based on a red morning boxer, 303 00:16:05.960 --> 00:16:08.240 do they hear certain things a certain way, and so forth. 304 00:16:08.320 --> 00:16:11.960 So that's kind of an emerging area, as is artificial intelligence. 305 00:16:12.720 --> 00:16:16.200 That's why companies like IBM and various others that come 306 00:16:16.240 --> 00:16:19.279 to mind tomorrow, Io and others are really using sort 307 00:16:19.320 --> 00:16:22.759 of advanced data technologies to mine all of this data 308 00:16:22.799 --> 00:16:27.600 to make precision information forecasts. Weather intelligence, if you will. 309 00:16:28.039 --> 00:16:33.559 For you know, agriculture, for business, industries, energy companies, infrastructure. 310 00:16:33.600 --> 00:16:35.919 So that's the main thing on the weather front. Now 311 00:16:35.960 --> 00:16:39.840 on the climate front, it's obviously the increase in CO two. 312 00:16:40.360 --> 00:16:42.879 I mean, look, I mean I wrote an article in Forbes. 313 00:16:42.919 --> 00:16:45.000 I'm a contributor to Forbes magazine, and I said, what's 314 00:16:45.039 --> 00:16:48.360 your CO two number? In other words, you can everyone 315 00:16:48.480 --> 00:16:51.000 has a birthday, but go look at that birthday that 316 00:16:51.120 --> 00:16:53.759 year and see what the parts per million CO two 317 00:16:53.799 --> 00:16:56.360 in the atmosphere was when you were born and compare 318 00:16:56.399 --> 00:16:58.320 it to today, and some of us that are older, 319 00:16:58.519 --> 00:17:00.799 you will be really scared, you see it, because we're 320 00:17:00.840 --> 00:17:02.799 well at around four hundred and twenty parts per million 321 00:17:02.879 --> 00:17:06.559 right now. Our atmosphere is, you know, responding to that. 322 00:17:06.839 --> 00:17:10.839 Our seas are responding to that. Our ecosystems are ice sheets. 323 00:17:10.960 --> 00:17:14.440 So our climate has changed in response to human activities 324 00:17:14.440 --> 00:17:17.759 and the burning of fossil fuels and greenhouse gas emissions. 325 00:17:18.039 --> 00:17:20.480 And I'll link doctor Shepherd's Forbes article on my site, 326 00:17:20.519 --> 00:17:22.319 but you can also go to nature dot org and 327 00:17:22.400 --> 00:17:25.559 calculate the CO two levels in your birth year. It's 328 00:17:25.640 --> 00:17:28.440 kind of like astrology, but sadder. And today I learned 329 00:17:28.480 --> 00:17:32.119 that carbon dioxide has increased by twenty five percent in 330 00:17:32.160 --> 00:17:35.160 the scant time that I've been digging around on this planet, 331 00:17:35.359 --> 00:17:37.839 and this fact can be a real vibe changer, so 332 00:17:37.880 --> 00:17:43.400 to speak. How is that personality affecting our mood? I 333 00:17:43.480 --> 00:17:45.599 know that I feel like in the last few years 334 00:17:45.599 --> 00:17:51.000 we've heard more about bomb cyclones and names for blizzards 335 00:17:51.000 --> 00:17:53.000 and storms and hurricanes that I had never heard of 336 00:17:53.039 --> 00:17:56.039 growing up. But how is that climate affecting the weather? 337 00:17:56.240 --> 00:17:58.440 Well, and you know that's just the media, actually, I 338 00:17:58.480 --> 00:18:01.680 mean bomb cyclones and and these terms have been around 339 00:18:01.720 --> 00:18:04.720 forever in meteorology. They should just have been used more 340 00:18:04.720 --> 00:18:07.920 in the popular media. So I wouldn't use those as 341 00:18:07.960 --> 00:18:11.759 anchors of something different about the climate. Because bombogenesis and 342 00:18:11.839 --> 00:18:15.079 rapid and these are very common weather terms, polar vortex, 343 00:18:15.519 --> 00:18:18.400 these are terms that have been around in meteorology if 344 00:18:18.400 --> 00:18:21.400 you study meteorology for decades, So there's nothing new about 345 00:18:21.440 --> 00:18:22.079 those terms. 346 00:18:22.599 --> 00:18:25.319 Let's do a lightning rundown of some of the ones 347 00:18:25.440 --> 00:18:28.920 you probably thought were just meteorologists yank in your chain. So, 348 00:18:29.119 --> 00:18:33.400 bomba genesis happens when a cold air mass collides with 349 00:18:33.480 --> 00:18:37.200 a warm one and the barometric pressure drops fast in 350 00:18:37.319 --> 00:18:40.599 a low pressure system. So some of the other fun 351 00:18:40.640 --> 00:18:46.039 things that you can call a bomba genesis include explosive cyclogenesis, 352 00:18:46.319 --> 00:18:50.519 a weather bomb, a meteorological bomb, or a bomb cyclone. 353 00:18:50.799 --> 00:18:52.799 And at one point someone was like, shouldn't we stop 354 00:18:52.839 --> 00:18:55.440 calling this a bomb? It's very scary to the people, 355 00:18:55.720 --> 00:18:57.839 And a meteorologist was like, you call them cold and 356 00:18:57.880 --> 00:19:00.640 warm fronts, like it's a war, so shut your rain hold. 357 00:19:00.640 --> 00:19:03.359 You cowered, And a bomb cyclone it was. Now. A 358 00:19:03.400 --> 00:19:06.319 polar vortex is a bunch of cold air near the 359 00:19:06.359 --> 00:19:09.359 poles of the Earth, and it's called a vortex because 360 00:19:09.720 --> 00:19:12.519 it's spinning, spinning, spinning, and in the winter it gets 361 00:19:12.519 --> 00:19:14.599 bigger and parts of it kind of get caught up 362 00:19:14.640 --> 00:19:16.599 in the jet stream and then they blast your whole 363 00:19:16.599 --> 00:19:20.359 face with colder Arctic air. Now, a pineapple express is 364 00:19:20.400 --> 00:19:23.599 another that's got to be fictional weather term, but it's true, 365 00:19:23.680 --> 00:19:25.880 and it's like one hundred years old in terms of terms, 366 00:19:26.240 --> 00:19:30.079 but it's when colder, low pressure air from like the 367 00:19:30.200 --> 00:19:33.759 Gulf of Alaska meets up with some high pressure West 368 00:19:33.799 --> 00:19:38.240 coast winds plus a little bit of Hawaiian aka pineapple moisture, 369 00:19:38.559 --> 00:19:42.640 and it forms this thing called an atmospheric river, which 370 00:19:42.680 --> 00:19:46.119 is a long, thin thread of wet weather. They can 371 00:19:46.200 --> 00:19:49.839 carry sometimes as much moving water as the Amazon River apparently, 372 00:19:50.160 --> 00:19:53.960 and you can call an atmospheric river a tropical plume 373 00:19:54.480 --> 00:19:57.759 or a water vapor surge or cloud band. But just 374 00:19:58.000 --> 00:19:59.240 keep a rain slick or handy. 375 00:19:59.559 --> 00:20:02.200 But having said that, we know that climate change is 376 00:20:02.240 --> 00:20:05.960 impacting our weather. Today. We have more intense rainstorms, our 377 00:20:06.000 --> 00:20:08.960 heat waves have more intensity and are happening with more frequency. 378 00:20:09.680 --> 00:20:14.240 Rapid intensification and the intensity of hurricanes is likely responding 379 00:20:14.279 --> 00:20:18.559 to climate change. There's greater sea level, a higher sea 380 00:20:18.599 --> 00:20:21.759 level amount, so when these storms push inland, they are 381 00:20:21.799 --> 00:20:24.359 actually pushing more water, and so you see more storm 382 00:20:24.400 --> 00:20:27.240 search damage. And even without the storms, just the higher 383 00:20:27.240 --> 00:20:32.119 sea level itself causes problems. We see changes in drought, 384 00:20:32.240 --> 00:20:35.440 which ultimately ends up affecting the cost of things we 385 00:20:35.480 --> 00:20:38.200 buy at the market or the grocery stores. There are 386 00:20:39.039 --> 00:20:42.279 mosquitoes that carry diseases that used to live in the 387 00:20:42.319 --> 00:20:44.559 tropical regions of the planet, but now they can live 388 00:20:44.559 --> 00:20:46.839 in the United States and carry those diseases. 389 00:20:47.319 --> 00:20:50.240 What diseases you ask, You want a little sampler platter 390 00:20:50.319 --> 00:20:53.400 of them? Okay, well, I asked a twenty twenty one 391 00:20:53.400 --> 00:20:57.039 paper published in the Lanset called Projecting the Risk of 392 00:20:57.119 --> 00:21:00.200 Mosquito borne Diseases in a warmer and more populated World, 393 00:21:00.440 --> 00:21:03.960 which said that in the next thirty years, nearly half 394 00:21:04.000 --> 00:21:06.519 a billion more people on the planet could be at 395 00:21:06.599 --> 00:21:10.519 risk for contracting mosquito born diseases such as yellow fever, 396 00:21:10.960 --> 00:21:15.640 zeka dangay, and chicken gaya, which I'm sorry sounds delicious, 397 00:21:15.759 --> 00:21:19.279 but it's a disease. Also, things like heat islands in 398 00:21:19.319 --> 00:21:24.240 densely populated cities may up the risks of malaria and 399 00:21:24.319 --> 00:21:27.440 dengey arriving right on your doorstep ding dong hi here 400 00:21:27.480 --> 00:21:27.880 to kill you. 401 00:21:28.759 --> 00:21:32.039