Speaker 1: All right, Welcome in everybody. It is Wednesday, another edition
of Full Court Press. Don't look now, but here here
come Rob and I on the Parlays another winter.
Speaker 2: Last night we've been Rob.
Speaker 1: I feel like we've been in a little bit of
an uphill battle to try to get back to even
for like a month now.
Speaker 2: Actually no, not not quite that long.
Speaker 1: We had a shot to be even last week at
one point, but we're about I think we're one two
team or away from getting the parlay back to even.
Maybe we'll get crazy throw a three teamer out there tonight.
I don't know, but we got it done last night.
Rob kind of a little bit of a sweat there
at the end of that Illinois regulation, was hoping that
we weren't gonna be in a scenario where they were
gonna play for a stop.
Speaker 2: But we get.
Speaker 1: Overtime, and then Western Illinois breaks their fourteen game lose streak,
they win the conference game that I thought that they
would win, and we get another parlay winner. So another
two and oh night for me, Rob, I feel like
I'm seeing it well right now, how is the night
for you?
Speaker 3: Lest up there goes the dog. Last night was two
and three in college hoop Adams. So that would for
those who chose to be on the double, the Firepower double,
the CBB Firepower package. You get four and three yesterday
from the two of us. Still a nice little prophet.
The early stuff was good BYU. I chose to play
their team total. They got way over their team total.
You could have played full game total. We talked about
it yesterday. Why they decrease from one sixty four down
to one fifty eight and a half didn't make a
lot of sense. Game hits one ninety three for goodness sakes.
And then as you mentioned Illinois, which looked like a
coach job the entire way. But I will say this
late in the night, I hadn't lost with Oklahoma. That
was a little bit disappointing team to over seventy eight
and a half. When we get to seventy six with
a zillion chances, good win by Arizona State. So we
move on to today. It's still been a great run
since December. First up fifty units, so we will look
for winners on today's card.
Speaker 2: Before we get into it.
Speaker 1: I'll take the rare opportunity to promote myself, but it
also it promotes Rob as well, because I have a
five percent play college basketball tonight. It's my first one
in a couple of weeks. I've won six straight. This
is what I kind of like to do with the
five percenters. I like to kind of press them when
things are going well.
Speaker 2: And things are going well.
Speaker 1: But the way to get that, the much better way
to get that, in my opinion, is to just grab
the package with myself and Rob, because I mean it's
like when you look at the cost in one of
those five percenters, I think too covers the package cost Rob.
And if I win this one, I'm probably gonna fire
another one tomorrow because that's how I roll. So I mean,
I think you should just do the double the power
CBB package.
Speaker 2: Rob. People are like, where are the energy drinks? Long gone?
Speaker 1: I've been up since like five in the morning. I'm
already onto a diet coke here. You gotta slow it down.
Can't do can't do two energy drinks. But it was
a rainbow Sherbert rain for those keeping track at home.
All Right, it's time to get into it. The people
have filed in. Let's start in the sec rematch of
a game that we saw earlier this year and a
game that I remember us talking about this game Florida
Georgia when they played down at the Swamp. It was
when Florida was still going through it a little bit.
It was a terrible matchup back then for Georgia, and
that was how it played out.
Speaker 2: It was a close first.
Speaker 1: Half, Florida exerted their will and the second happened up
winning the game by fifteen. Still a bad matchup for Florida.
Florida's playing much better now. This opened seven to seven
and a half, all the way up to nine and
a half. Now, Robino, do you agree with that move?
And do you have anything for us on the total?
Speaker 3: Well, in terms of bad matchup, I mean we can
single out the boards right, interesting numbers on Florida, and
they're rebounding over the course of this tremendous nine game
string that they're on eight and one straight up eight
and one ats. The only loss in there was that
head scratcher to Auburn where Auburn just came from left
field and beat them out right. But other than that,
eight out of nine going through back to the first game, Adam,
Florida outrebounds Georgia fifty six to thirty five plus twenty
one on the boards. End of story. But going through
their nine game stretch here, just to give you some numbers,
seven of the nine games in this span, they've had
a double digit rebound advantage over the opponent. Only twice
didn't and once they had a nine rebound advantage. They're
number two in the entire nation in second chance points.
And we talked about their front line from opening day,
not that that was news to anybody that Florida was
going to have a dominant front line, but they have
really exerted themselves here. And what's really interesting about Florida
is that during this nine game stretch they don't shoot
three pointers well at all. They've been miserable. They don't
need the three pointer to beat these teams and beat
them handily. It's kind of crazy. Five times in the
last nine games Florida has not even hit thirty percent
of their threes. It's been less than thirty six times.
It's been thirty or less. Only twice in nine games
have they shot better than thirty three percent from beyond
the arc. They don't need it, it doesn't matter. They
crushed Alabama by twenty three shooting lousy from the three
point arc. They just destroyed Texas A and M shooting
twenty something percent from beyond the three point arc. Doesn't matter.
They continue to beat people on the glass and their
defenses come around five straight full game unders five straight
times their last five games where they've held their opponent
under their team total. So you know, how does Georgia
come bat this? It's kind of crazy. They have already
been beaten by this team by fifteen once and I
don't know that the matchup changes any except that I
think we both feel like the backcourt of Lee and
Fland is playing a little bit better than they were
at that time, and not necessarily showing up in three
point percentage, but certainly they're playing a little bit better.
Is why Florida is on this great run. For Georgia,
you want to if you want to play them, you
want to add the home court into your handicapping angle. Right, Well,
george is at home. They could be good at home,
two and three at home in SEC play straight up
and against the spread. The interesting thing about Georgia is
they've got five home games, three of them have gone
to overtime. They battle and battle and battle here on
this floor, overtime against Auburn, overtime against Ole Miss, overtime
against Tennessee, lose them all. The other two games were
a nice win over Arkansas by fourteen and then a
fifteen point loss to A and M. I just home
floor aside here, Adam, it's kind of hard for me
to see Georgia's staying in it for forty full minutes.
The way Florida is rebounding and the way Florida is
playing defense, that combination always travels glass and defense. However,
you're dealing with a pretty sizable number here, nine and
a half at this point in time, total up to
one sixty four and a half. I could question that
a little bit, just because Florida is on this five
game understring where they've just stopped the polling squad. And Georgia,
I think we saw it in the Texas game, Adam,
not being not that it was on their home floor, right.
That was a Saturday game. I think Ui and Kelly
had that game. I think you had Texas that day,
and Georgia went staggnant offensively for a long time. They
got out to like twenty four to sixteen lead or something,
and then after that they were just shut down by Texas.
Could almost see that happening here, even on their home floor.
I'm a little bit on the fence with this one
because the money's coming so so strong on Florida, Like,
you gotta win by ten points now on the road,
which is not the easiest thing to do inside this league.
Florida does have Kentucky on deck. I don't know my
lean here would be towards Florida, despite the fact that
you have to win by ten, just because I don't
see how the first game doesn't repeat itself. It was
a fifteen point win. Then I don't know. Is Georgia
going to improve by five points here? Possible? But I'm
not sure it will.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, don't get me wrong. The movement towards Florida.
You know, Florida up from seven now to nine and
a half. I mean, if this were to continue to
go ten ten and a half, which I don't think
will be the case, but if it did, I definitely
you can start to look at punching back with the
Florida side. So I'm sorry with the Georgia side. So
let's look at the first meeting. You know, you talked
about a fifteen point final margin. First half was close,
second half wasn't. The rebounding disparity was always going to
be there. What I found interesting about the first meeting
Georgia four for nineteen from three. If they could improve
on that, maybe they can hang around. But you know
what interests me Rab or what's interesting to me Rob
is Blue Kane. Who's who's kind of like their three
point shoot. He's he's the guy that if, like, if
he were to come out and have a huge game,
hit five six threes, you know, I think I think
that they could maybe be in the mix. But he's
kind of been terrible this year shooting the ball. His
his shooting numbers, even though his points per game are
up at three point range, he was like a career
thirty four percent three point shooter. I remember getting to
see him in a ballroom down in the Bahamas when
he was a freshman. You know, he's kind of like
this like goofy kid. I was like, who who's this guy?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 1: And then you know I was watching him warm up,
just an absolute sniper. He's down to like twenty six
percent from three this year, and yeah, I don't think
he hit one in that first meeting. So again, Georgia,
that would be a way to stay in the game.
Speaker 2: I just don't know if I trust them to do that.
Speaker 1: Though they could improve on four for nineteen, it's not
that hard to improve on four for nineteen. That's not
a very good mark shooting the ball from.
Speaker 2: The first meeting.
Speaker 1: The other thing that's worth pointing out from the first meeting,
Sumpto Siro got thrown out of that game. So he
only played seven minutes. He got thrown out of the game,
ejected for something I don't remember what, but that's obviously notable.
Speaker 2: That being said, Georgia is gonna be.
Speaker 1: Down Jeremiah Wilkinson here, who I believe has already been
ruled out of this game.
Speaker 2: So it depends on what you make of that.
Speaker 1: I think the Wilkinson news is the reason that this
move where it did. So I read Wilkinson is out,
But is that is that kind of a swap, right
because you didn't really have serial in the first game
you get now you would assume he's going to play
the whole game here because he you know, it was
an ejection that caused him to miss the first game.
But you lose Wilkinson who's another you know, is just
another one of your pieces, right, you believe he's actually
the top score, correct me if I'm wrong. Seventeen point
one points per game. He's probably their top score, and
I believe he's out here. So do am I dying
to lay ten with Florida?
Speaker 3: Not?
Speaker 2: Really?
Speaker 1: Could I see Georgia maybe improving on that first game, Yeah,
if they can hit a couple of threes. But going
back to something you said, Rob, which is a point
we've made on this show a couple of times.
Speaker 2: It's like Florida has.
Speaker 1: Done this in spite of poor guard play, and now
they started to get the guard play occasionally. But if
Florida ever shows up and plays a game where Davie
and Lee's playing well or Fland is playing well and
they're getting production from their guards, it's gonna be hard
to stay within ten against them. They're still very elite
when that's the case, and the scary thing is they're
probably elite when that isn't even the case.
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's a.
Speaker 1: It's a tough one, maybe under a little bit, just
because I don't know if it's gonna be you know,
like just a ton of points in this one, But
boy is this a uh, it's a daily occurrence here, Rob.
The sort of game of the night game is like
always the hardest one of handicap.
Speaker 2: But I suppose that's how it should be to an extent.
Speaker 3: Yeah, speaking of can Georgia improve from beyond the arc
in this game, Adam and where it could help the
counter that to that would be can the Florida Guard
play improve? We talked about how they weren't playing well
Fland and Lee up until this nine game string. They
were three of eleven from the field, one for eight
from three. Those numbers, even if they come up half
a ticket kind of negates Georgia's numbers coming up. So
it's hard to see other things home floor, Florida not
showing up mentally, et cetera, et cetera, which are all
things that are hard to handicap. But they're definitely the
better squad and they're en route to you know, the
way they're playing right now. They're playing Elite eight status
and you just can't give these guys second chance points,
but they continue to get. I mean, that front line
is crazy good, so we'll see how it goes. Georgia has,
as I mentioned, Ben feisty at home. Three overtime games
in five sec contests on this floor, so it's no
surprise if they do get a little feisty here at them.
I just don't know they want to put my money
on that?
Speaker 1: Yeah, me either, And I think I think we've hit
that one enough. You know, at some point on the show,
we always find something that we want to put our
money on. I think I'm on a pretty good string
of actually giving out client plays on this show, so
you know, it's one of the nice things about college
basketball season and there being so many games the volumes higher.
With the volumes higher, I can one or two of
the client plays, and as of right now, I only
have the five percenter locked in. But we'll we'll see
if we can find something else on the show. Okay,
let's go to Garth. Let's head to the MAC for
some some Wednesday mactionin Rob Garth appreciate the donation. As always,
he says thoughts on Toledo Western Michigan. He likes the
Western Michigan team total under seventy four and a half
or the full game under one fifty four and a half.
Speaker 2: Rob.
Speaker 1: So when I when I look at Toledo. Something my
sort of way into Toledo games earlier this year was
recognizing their struggles against his zone. You know, so this
this is not really going to speak toward what Garth
wants to speak about. I'll kind of leave that that
Western Michigan angle to you. But the way I have
seen Toledo games was early in the year they really
struggled against good zone defense. Now I've gotten all of
this a little bit because they've been better. They got
better for a stretch, they sort of figured out the
zone a little bit.
Speaker 2: That being said, I was never overly high on Toledo
this year.
Speaker 1: I thought this would probably be one of the worst
teams that they've had that Ted qual Chick has had
in a while. And yeah, it's sort of proving to
look that way. They're inconsistent offensively, they struggle against the zone.
They've managed to get to six and five in MAC play.
But man, outside of Miami, Ohio and Akron and maybe
you could throw Kent State into the mix there, the
MAC isn't quite as good as I thought it was
going to be. Some of the other teams that are
typically up in the top, you know, the the Kent
Toledo being one of them, Ohio not quite as good
as I thought they were going to be, and then
the bottom half of the Mac really not being very
good at all this year.
Speaker 2: Makes it difficult.
Speaker 1: This is the you know, this is a little bit
of a sandwich game here, Rob for Toledo. They had
James Madison in the return leg of the Sun Belt
MAC Challenge over the weekend, lost that game seventy three
seventy one.
Speaker 2: It was a good one. They put a lot into that.
Speaker 1: I think that was a kind of a game that
maybe they had a little bit more stock into than
some of these other Sun Belt MAC games because James
Madison's kind of a high profile team from that league.
And then of course this weekend will be the rematch
of their rivalry with Bowling Green, So Toledo Bowling Green
right down the street from each other. Great first game,
they won it seventy three seventy two if I remember correctly,
they won it right at the end, and so now
they have to head over to Bowling Green the Stro
Center this weekend. So this kind of is an interesting
spot here. I don't know if I love Toledo laying
points on the road in this spot. But is there
anything to like about Western Michigan? And talk to me
about Garth's total here, what do you think about this game?
Speaker 3: Yeah, the number's been pushed down about a point and
a half, two points right now, staring at one fifty
four and a half like Garth list right there, they
get over one fifty six and a half. Toledo's in
kind of a free fall offensively at them. It's for
their last five games I think seventy five or list,
which is Toledo's not gonna win a lot of games
scoring seventy five or less because they're so defensively poor.
But the first time around, and this was a while ago,
right December thirtieth seems like a ten years ago. But
on December to thirtieth, it goes eighty four to seventy nine,
one sixty three. Toledo, for what it's worth, only shot
sixteen percent from three point land in that game and
still got to eighty four against Western Michigan. So you know,
I guess the dilemma becomes, is the matchup really good
for Toledo that they can get to eighty four points
only hitting four of twenty five from three, missing twelve
three throws or is cur form to be taken more
into consideration, because, like I mentioned, Toledo's not the offensive
team that they were to start the season, and Toledo
hasn't played a who's who of defenses in this stretch,
right like Bowling Green to only score seventy three, ball
State seventy three, Kent seventy two. Of course, James Madison's
a pretty good team seventy one in that one. They're
just not generally you think of them as being in
the eighties, and if this game is going to go over,
you need it to be in the eighties. Western Michigan
I haven't talked about much because they just don't score,
which you know, again going back to the original meeting
and seeing eighty four to seventy nine makes you think,
is it matchup or is it current form? I kind
of lean always towards current form. We've talked about this before.
Overall statistics and earlier meetings can be skewed a little bit,
and also coaches who like to fix what went wrong
in that first game. You know, it's a lot of
points to be giving up. I'd probably slightly lean with
the under, but I don't know that there's a lot
of wiggle room here at one fifty four and a half. Honestly,
it's a difficult bet to make the under seventy four
and a half Western Michigan team total. I guess if
on your list of reasons to play it, the main
reason is Western Michigan's not a good offensive team scoring wise.
But the counter to that is Toledo's just not a
great defensive team either. So again, this is a difficult one. Garth.
I'm gonna let you go whichever way you want to go.
I won't be involved. If I had to, I'll say this,
I'd be leary of playing under one fifty four and
a half. I just think that number is susceptible, and
you know they probably pushed it down as far as
you can go. We'll see how it rolls.
Speaker 2: I'll take a stand real quick.
Speaker 1: Rob the chat does not like defense riding, so I'm
gonna come in and take a stand. If I if
I could trust Western Michigan's defense at all to play
a somewhat competent zone here, I would be on Western
Michigan in this spot. My number is shaded to thinking
Western like I'm closer to five than seven.
Speaker 2: Here.
Speaker 1: I don't know what it is right now, but I
was at like five point one. I think it was
like six and a half, maybe seven. So the problem
is Western Michigan defensive rating on keen Pump three p
thirty two right, so that it's it's very difficult to
trust them to defend. But it's not the worst spot
to go against Toledo. You had, you know, you want
to talk about just a little bit of a you know,
Toledo taking that game against James Madison serious because James
Madison's sort of like a that They've become a name
out of the Sun Belt.
Speaker 2: They're always near the top of the Sun Belt.
Speaker 1: I think they even I think they even got into
the top twenty five a couple of years ago. Yeah,
when I went when I went to see James Madison
play two years ago with my buddy Aaron Kid, they
were nationally ranked team.
Speaker 2: So I do think they garner a little bit more.
Speaker 1: Whereas Western Michigan just went down to Texas this weekend
and couldn't have cared less, got blown out. I don't
think they put any stock into that game. I think
they were looking toward this game, which is you know,
Toledo's become a name in this conference, and then of
course Toledo's got the rivalry on deck. So I do
think there's a little bit of value there. I don't
mind the spot. I lean toward Western Michigan plus the points.
I will, like I said, taking a stay at Rob.
Speaker 3: There you go.
Speaker 2: And if you do get involved with the total garth,
good luck.
Speaker 1: But the only way I could play would be to
take the points and you know, hope that Toledo struggles
to put the ball in the basket, which they have
at times this year.
Speaker 2: All Right, real quick promo. Like I said, I have
a five percent play tonight.
Speaker 1: We have the double the Firepower CBB package up on
both of our pages. It's been really good the last
you know, pretty much for the last couple of weeks.
Rob carried us through the first two months of the season.
I'm trying to pick up the slack right now. I
had a winning January. I'm off to a really good
start in February. I've got six wins in a row,
going for seven in a row tonight, So hopefully we can.
Speaker 2: Keep that going.
Speaker 1: Run that package up for us so they don't take
it down because they will if the packages aren't selling,
they'll take it down, so we can't let that happen. Also,
there's a sixty nine dollars Valentine's Day special. I'll get
a chuckle out of that the rest of the week.
I think we're promoing that the rest of the week.
It'll every time I see that. We've been running that
for years now. I just it always makes me laugh, Like,
you know, anyway, all right, let's get back to it.
There's a good one in the ACC tonight that's taking
a little bit of money. I'm gonna go to Jake here,
he says, any thoughts on Clemson? My thought is I
thought that number was kind of ridiculous. At the open,
I had to look at the standings and then I'm
sitting there like, see this, this is what I'm talking about,
rob With the ACC, all these teams play such different
schedules that it's like I lose track of like who's
where in the conference?
Speaker 2: And then suddenly suddenly you're sitting there in Clemson's ten
and one and you're like, how that happened? Who have
they played?
Speaker 3: How that?
Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
Speaker 1: Like they're all all these teams are playing such different
league schedules.
Speaker 2: That that it's hard to put a ton of stock.
Speaker 1: Into the league, into like the league record, because there
are some teams in the ACC right now that have
played entirely different schedules to this point. How do you
how do you rate like one team versus another in
the conference when that's the case.
Speaker 2: I do think it.
Speaker 1: Makes for an interesting uh you know, I think it
makes for an interesting like handicap, And I think that
there's probably some value to be had when we get
to this point in the season and you have like
an ACC record and teams haven't even played remotely the
same teams. So in this case, Rob, at first glance,
I said, man, that is that is a big number
for Virginia Tech to be catching on the road tonight.
I Mean, I like Brad Brown Allen Clemson as much
as the next person. But were you kind of shocked
that that was nine and a half at the open?
Speaker 3: Yeah? And to your point, Adam, when you go over
this Clemson schedule, they have not played Duke, they have
not played Virginia, they haven't played Louisville, they haven't played
North Carolina. Who have they played to get to ten
and one? Right, that's the top five of the top
or four of the top six in the league. They did,
to their credit, played Miamia, Florida won the game played.
NC State lost in overtime. But you know, you could
argue that Louisville, North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia are four
of the if you could argue they're the four top
teams if you wanted to argue against Clemson soft schedule. Actually,
so to your point, yes, Virginia Tech has surprised me
all season long. Their ability to score the basketball is good. Here,
Clemson's had a tendency to be able to shut these
type teams down. Nobody's scoring on them, Adam, Absolutely, nobody's
scoring points on them. It took NC State overtime to
get to eighty. But I mean, you just go down
this list, fifty five, sixty four, fifty two, sixty three,
fifty nine, fifty sixty one. SMU could only get to seventy.
It's hard to score on Brownell's team. And if you
take any bit of Virginia Tech's offense away, I don't
know that they're good enough defensively to handle Clemson, even
down low. Now that being said, you know, does that
make Clemson nine points better when we really don't have
a good assessment of how good they really are. But
I would count their argue that point by just saying
teams in Virginia Tech's weight class in this league, Clemson
is ten and one against basically eight and one against,
and so from that perspective, you would say, yeah, at home,
they should be able to handle these guys. The total
being set at one thirty six and a half tells
you not a lot of points scored. And when you're
in that eight in a half range at him, it's
hard to lay that type of price in a game
where you're not gonna see a lot of points. Duke
did it last night. They beat Pittsburgh like seventy to
fifty six. That's kind of the thing you're looking for
if you bet Clemson here, and it's not out of
the realm of possibility, but Virginia Tech, they might have
just a little bit or one too many offensive options
for Clemson to hold to fifty six points here and
get that type of a win. So for me, again, man,
these guys were coming out of the box here with
some games that I can't I can't take a firm
stance on, but I would say off of what I've
seen this year, Clemson is capable of handling this weight class,
especially on their home floor. Obviously Money thought nine and
a half was too much. I even see a seven
and a half out there at him, it's stray. But
I see a seven and a half. I think I
would lean Clemson totally. I have no opinion on I
think that in a really really good spot.
Speaker 1: Yeah, my personal number, I was at seven point one
here Clemson minus seven point one, so definitely enough. You know,
I look for a little bit. I look for like
a two point or more edge to fire. I certainly
thought about Virginia Tech and and I guess what's I
guess what kind of kept me off was going back
to something that you said about like Clemson defensively, just
being like I've said this for years, Brad Brown now
is the best coach in the ACC that no one
ever gives any credit. This is this has been going
on for a while. He's he is a tremendous coach.
He's got this team playing great defense and any and
this is every year though, this is every year, Like
Clemson in this league is always an afterthought when they
really like a lot of times like shouldn't be. They
shouldn't they shouldn't be. This year, they're in the top
twenty five, they're ten and one, yet it still feels
like they're a little bit of an afterthought at times.
I was impressed with Virginia Tech over the weekend hanging
around with NC State. They you know, that was a game.
I thought they were gonna get blown out in that
game route. I thought that set up for a Will
Weighe massacre blowout type game. And you know, Virginia Tech
sort of took the took the punch in the face early,
went down double digits, and hung around and covered ten
and a half.
Speaker 2: I kind of feel like that's what you're gonna be
doing here.
Speaker 1: I don't know if I see Virginia Tech winning this game,
but based on the way that they've played some of
these better teams, right, Duke, they kind of did the
same thing.
Speaker 2: Hung around. I don't think they covered the Dude game,
but you.
Speaker 1: Know, they hung around and lost by fourteen, and and
you know, didn't really like they took that early punch
in that one as well, but didn't get completely blown out.
I could see the back door being open for v
Tech here there, they've been a little bit better offensively,
you know, the last like month or so they had
they dropped eighty nine on order to they came into
the dome. Not that either of those teams deserve to
even be discussed at this point. Syracuse awful somehow taking
money like someone knows the final score at this point.
Speaker 2: I don't know if we'll talk about that one or not.
Speaker 1: But you know, come into the dome and get a win,
and then these this series of games. The game they
should have won they won against Georgia Tech. They really
weren't awful. Against Louisville covered fourteen and a half. I
think that was one that they again they kind of
hung around the number. They did just enough to get
inside it did that against NC State. We're a bucket
away from doing that against Duke. So if you have
nine and a half, I don't hate the Virginia Tech side.
I don't think I would take it at the worst
number at this point, but certainly a v Tech lean
there for me.
Speaker 3: Rob, Yeah, it's it's just an interesting game. Meet Clemson
at home, and they haven't been home a lot in
I think I just counted four home games in League,
but three out of the four times they've won by
this margin.
Speaker 2: Big at home, big game coming up for Clemson this weekend.
I don't know. That could be another angle for v Tech.
Speaker 1: Like, you know, if they you may have Clemson take
a more business like approach here right like they might
if they get ahead, especially if they're up by ten,
they might take the air out of the ball a
little bit. Got Duke coming up this weekend. That's a
big one. So yeah, I think there's merits. A couple
of people ask me about Virginia Tech and on Twitter
prior to the show. I couldn't talk you off of that,
especially if you got in at the good note, especially
if you got in.
Speaker 2: At nine or nine and a half. That's uh.
Speaker 1: I think you have a decent bet at this point
with the Hokies. All right, rob let's head back to
the SEC. Mad Max, thank you for the donation to
the show. We very much appreciate it. He says he's
leaning leaning Alabama team total over eighty five and a half.
He said, oh miss gave up eighty four or to Tennessee.
He likes the minus seven and a half two. Now,
I guess my quick thought on the total here, Rob,
I don't know that those two things are necessarily equal.
I go back to last year Ole Miss actually won
this game in Tuscaloosa, and the one I guess they're
path to victory here, Rob, or playing the game that
they would want to play is to kind of make
it slow and ugly. So if ole Miss can do that,
team total might not be the way to go. If
they can't, of course, Alabama, when they are playing the
game that they want to play, they're probably trying to
get up and over that number. So Rob, do you
agree or disagree with Mad Max? Are you seeing over
Bama or under Ole Miss? How you see this one?
Speaker 3: Well, the one thing I could say is Chris Beard.
We know his reputation right and recently for ole Miss,
the defense, if nothing else, has gotten better. The Tennessee
game that Max points out is kind of the liar
and over the course of their last five where they
only gave up seventy eight to Auburn high scoring team,
seventy two to Kentucky high scoring team, seventy one to
Bandy high scoring team, seventy nine to Texas certainly another
high scoring team. So you've got four teams in their
last five that they've held under eighty and here you're
asking for eighty six. Obviously, now, I don't know that
any of those is as capable of imposing their offensive
will and their style of play on an opponent as
Alabama is Alabama. It does just doesn't matter home road,
doesn't matter where they go neutral, you're gonna end up
playing their game. They may lose to you, they may
give you ninety five, and they may lose, but you're
gonna end up playing their style of game. And especially
if ole Miss gets behind in this game and Tempo
picks up, those things kind of lend themselves to the number.
I honestly don't know how this Charles Bettioco news affects
Alabama here. I don't know, negatively or positively, I don't know.
Certainly it takes away from their defensive ability at the rim.
Certainly it takes away from their capability on the glass,
which Natos has kind of complained about with this team
all season long. And those two things right there, if
ole Miss can find their way to the rim a
little bit easier, which which prior to Betioco teams were
finding and even with him, they were still finding their
way to the rim, right. I think they gave up
one hundred to somebody with him in the lineup. That
would be my stipulation. If ole Miss at home, stays
close in this game and doesn't have to go completely
rapid for forty minutes with Bama because they get down
twenty to six to start the game, then this game
Alabama may not get to that number. They may not
for the last five teams against Old mishavn't and ole
Miss had just come off of four straight road game.
This is their first home game in ages, haven't played
at home since the twentieth January Way Away, Away Away,
So I don't know I'm giving credence. I think here
to Chris Beard and their ability, his ability to draw
up defenses and just trying to slow the game down.
I want to use Pittsburgh as an example last night, Adam,
but I can't even use them as an example because
Duke doesn't play fast like Alabama does, so I can't
even use that as an example. Duke only getting to
seventy in a slower tempo game on an opponent's floor.
Generally I'd be all in on Alabama overs this one.
Little skeptical, however, if they react as an angry club
to what just went down with Bettioco, then that backcourt
starts nailing shots philion In Holloway, et cetera, and its
lights out. So tough call. I would lean under on
the Alabama team total, just based on what Ole Miss
has been able to do defensively over the course of
the last five games.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd lean under two on this one. I don't listen.
Speaker 1: I don't think Bettiaco is a I think it's more
of just a distraction than anyway little pr distraction. It's like,
I don't think it's going to like truly affect the
team now.
Speaker 2: It is it is.
Speaker 1: It will affect their depth of course, right, Like that's
that's where you know, just taking his minutes away will
take a little bit of a hit, you know. I
look at the schedule and I got to think Alaba.
Alabama's got to be exhausted. Look at like they've they've
given up one hundred ninety seven and ninety two since
since February first, and this will be their third road
game of the four third third road game of their
last four games. The one home game was one hundred
and ninety seven bucket ball against against Texas A and M.
So they put all of that f into the Auburn
game over the weekend and win ninety six ninety two.
I do feel like if I do feel like this
is a little bit of a might be an attrition
type game for Bama here right where they're just like,
I mean that that's you know, one hundred, got got
gave up one hundred to Florida, got killed, give up
ninety seven at Texas A and M in a one
hundred ninety seven final, and then play a game in
the nineties this weekend, and now you've got to turn
around and play on the road again. So yeah, I
don't think I want any part of it over. I
think i'd be looking at unders across the board here
because ole Miss is gonna drag this game down.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: Ole Miss can't play that their offense isn't very good,
so I don't think you can really count on all
Miss points ever, Right, that's the problem that that's why
this game last Last year, this game was ranked versus ranked.
Ole Miss went into Tuscaloosa and won. But all this
was I believe in the top twenty at the time.
So this year it's it's ole Miss is clearly not that.
But if they're gonna have any chance in this game
that they're just gonna have to drag Alabama down with them.
So it's really gonna come down to who could probably
dictate the tempo, which normally would be Bama, but I
don't know if it's gonna be Bama on the heels
of the schedule they've played of late to this kind
of feels like a game where they've just got to
will their way to a win. And if that's the case,
I don't think it's going over.
Speaker 3: All.
Speaker 2: Right, let's hit back to the chat here.
Speaker 1: Gonna find a rob the as soon as the sweatshirts
getting compliments here. I know you, I know you're dying
to talk Missouri Tigers basketball.
Speaker 2: And listen.
Speaker 1: I know on a Wednesday like this, I know folks
want to h Okay, I gotta I gotta comment on this. Bro,
you guys pick Nebraska. That's not to and no, gotta
listen to the show. Gotta use your ears. Nowhere on
the show did we ever pick Nebraska. We gave a
breakdown of the game. I think I said, I think
I went as far as to say if I like
had a gun to my head and I was like
in captivity and someone was like, you're we're gonna pull
the trigger. You have to make a pick on this game.
I think I said I would have taken Nebraska. We
did not pick Nebraska. We gave out two picks on
the show yesterday and they went to and oh, we
we The point of this is to just you know,
we're gonna give a couple of picks out. If you
want the picks. I've said this a million times. If
you want the picks, they're at wager talk dot com.
That's where the picks are. I went too, and oh
yesterday Rob was two and three. We went four and
three combined. That's where the picks are. If you want
just an hour worth of discussion with a couple of
picks on the show, we're gonna give that to you.
Speaker 2: We did not pick Nebraska.
Speaker 1: We gave a discussion of the game that I think
was a more pro Nebraska discussion. But uh yeah, use
your ears. Listen to the show before you come at
me saying we picked Nebraska. All right, Rob, back to
the show. The people apparently want picks. Apparently discussion is
not enough. So I'm gonna ask you right now, do
you have something that you want to lock in for
the parlay or do you do you want me to go?
I prefer you to go because I have no clue
what I want to use yet, so it's up to you.
Or do you want me to go back to the
chat we saw twenty two minutes?
Speaker 3: Yeah, go to the chat here real quick. If they
want to talk, Missouri Texas A and M. We will.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I didn't put the I didn't put
the shirt on for my health this morning, although it
is a sweatshirt and I'm cold as health because we're
apparently more snow here for us in Central New York.
Did not realize that was happening again today. I thought
it was warming up from our sub zero week, and
apparently apparently it's not. So Yeah, let's stay in the
sec Miszoo Texas A and M. Rob you know a
rare strong total opinion for me here? I see points
points points points in this game?
Speaker 2: Do you agree?
Speaker 1: Tell me how there's not a million points in this game?
Missouri Texas A and M. I do agree.
Speaker 3: I don't know how there's not a million points. And
I'll just I'm gonna go back to something that happened
a couple of weeks ago, and actually thanks to whoever
the guy in the chat was who came in that
day when Missoo played Alabama and actually afterwards credited us
for talking talking him off of Missouri, which we're never
here to talk you off of things. But I guess
are the points our analysis made him think twice about
betting Missou in that game. I see the same situation here, Adam.
I really do A and M off back to back
losses now home, Missouri off back to back wins on
the road Alabama and A and M play the same
exact style bucky ball, a little more unique in its nature,
not necessarily in its overall composition or style. Up tempo,
but it's extreme tempo basketball, and we're going to get
ninety and can you stop us from getting ninety? I
see Missouri walking into the same hornets and ass that
they walked into against Alabama in that particular game that
day the total ran its way up to one fifty
four because Missoo didn't score only sixty four points in
that game. I tend to believe that they'll get a
few more here in A and M. And we're not
asked to get that manymore. I think the numbers one
fifty seven and a half at last look, I think
it was one fifty seven and a half. So they're
asking us to climb from one to fifty four against
Bama at Coleman to one fifty eight here in College station.
A and M might get more than ninety. They could
get ninety two, ninety three. Missoo gets sixty. The sixty
four Missoo put up by Missoo was kind of rare
in their season long numbers. It was a I don't
know if it is the lowest output in SEC play
by them so far, but certainly they're more capable of
seventy than they are sixty four. So for me, again
I use the word mathematics, but again we have to
use mathematics to come up with these plays too. I think,
sure mathematics tell you on top of the spot. Again,
I see this as the same setup as we saw
against Alabama where BBAMA was off the loss Missouri was.
I think that was the game where Mark Mitchell chucked
in a three at the buzzer and then they had
to go on the road to play Alabama and they
just got swamped they may get swamped again, but I
think they'll score more than sixty four. So for me,
this isn't over. I don't know which way the question
was directed, whether it was directed side or total, but
I've roaded defense all morning long here I will take
a stance with this one. I think this game gets
over one fifty seven and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I kind of love the over here, just the
Texas A and M should be able to play the
style that they want to play against Missouri, and you.
Speaker 2: Know there's I want.
Speaker 1: I actually woke up this morning looking at this game
being like, man, if that I kind of expect Texas
A and M to take a little money, and I
really want to make a case. I really wanted to
make a case for Missouri. But you know my number
comes right, I'm right, I'm at Texas A and M
minus six. So I said, well, if they take money
and it gets steamed, let's say it goes to seven
and a half or eight. Maybe maybe I could do that,
because I do think Missouri will be able to run
some offense and score enough to stay in this game.
But I've kind of talked myself off of that because
just of just of how efficient the bucket ball style
could be in this game and.
Speaker 2: That so that's kind of kept me off.
Speaker 1: I do see sevens popping and maybe it will go there,
but again I think I'm pretty much off the side
and looking entirely toward the total.
Speaker 2: Because here's the thing.
Speaker 1: If you do have if Texas A and M is scoring,
they're hitting their threes and it's an efficient bucket ball performance,
and then you get Missouri doing just enough to hang
around rob then you hit the jackpockets, you're probably an
extension area. Right if it comes in that six seven
eight point range, Missouri's gonna go to the rim.
Speaker 2: They're gonna be able to score at the rim.
Speaker 1: So unless you get a scenario where they're chasing so
badly that they're just chucking threes, that would that would
be the That's going to be a Texas A and
A and M blowout that probably doesn't go over because
that's not the game Missouri wants to play. That If
Missouri can hang around long enough in this game, get
the ball inside, score at the rim where they can
score against Texas A and M, you could have I mean,
you're probably well into the eighties. I'd be surprised if
A and M isn't hitting ninety at some point. So
I'm with you, Rob points all day in college station tonight.
Speaker 3: Okay, so can we can we take a pause in
the show here right now so we can give half
of the parlay leg.
Speaker 2: We absolutely can.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I might as well. I mean it was I
kind of and I do this a lot of days
on the show. I kind of try to. Questions will
be asked on games that I have for clients, and
I try to dance around it a little bit, give
the best analysis I can without actually giving away, like
you just flat out giveaway place. Kudos to you. They
should appreciate that I try to get around it.
Speaker 1: We'll have to see if ownership agrees with that. But
you know, I think if I come on and talk
about it, it, come out and talk about it, it's
hard to not give it out.
Speaker 3: I'll take your spot today and I'll just flat give
one away. I talked a lot about the game without
saying exactly the direction I took. But A and M
team total over this number, Adam to me was crazy.
Eighty one and a half. Eighty two and a half's
are out there as well, but you can get eighty
one and a half. Use whatever you want for the show.
I think A and MS in for eighty five or more. Adam,
you know, enhanced my analysis, so you got double the
CBB firepower and now are exactly A M goes. I
just think, you know that's gonna be my half of
the parlay leg. Like I say, I see the same
situation that happened in Alabama, So give me A and
M over their team total today.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think they scored ninety. I think there's gonna
be a lot of points in this game.
Speaker 1: So someone bitty appreciate the donation, he says, No, the
difference between a pick and a lean. That was certainly
a pick for Rob Bino. Listen, I'm not getting on
anyone personally. Actually, it was more because like people were,
it's like, you know, just what we're trying to give
out the best.
Speaker 2: Really, this show is is probably.
Speaker 1: More geared to people doing their own handicapping and and
wanting just to you know, to sort of hear both sides.
Speaker 2: So uh yeah, just uh, I don't know.
Speaker 1: I think I think it was the It may have
been the caffeine. I got a little fired up there,
Cam says DC for Trigg today taking a break from
the rain.
Speaker 2: No, we just finished it already.
Speaker 1: And if I if I ever went back for a
second rain, like, I might trash my house.
Speaker 2: Like you can't. I can't.
Speaker 1: That's too much. That's too much, Rob, they can't. It
reminds me of they canceled. So Sianna canceled the football
program the year before I got there. So I was
a freshman at Sienna in the fall of two thousand
and four, and two thousand and three was the final
football year, which means a lot of these senior football
players just was like they just stayed at Sianna and
they didn't like they weren't going to go try to
transfer to play one year somewhere. So we just had
all these just jacked up meatheads that had nothing to
do walking around because they they just you know, they
would have normally been playing football, and these they would
just like throw a party and then like every once
in a while they'd be like, let's rev it up,
and they just start punching holes in the sheet rock.
Speaker 2: Rob, animals, animals.
Speaker 1: That's what I'd be doing if I did, if I
did a second energy drink, That's why this is even aggressive.
I should be drinking the water right now. But you
know what, it's Wednesday. There's a million games, so we
gotta you know, we gotta bring the heat here. Got
to come in with energy, and I probably have too
much of it today. Some would you know, some would say, so, uh,
all right, we got another one from Mad Max and
then I'll figure out a parlay leg. So let's hit
Mad Max's game. Appreciate the donations to the show. That's
our other goal. We want to out. We want to
out donate because I think we take these donations and
donate them to charity.
Speaker 2: I think we did like Opportunity Village last time.
Speaker 1: It's not always the same one, but Rob and are
My's goal is to get far more to donations than
any other show, just because we we just want to
be those guys.
Speaker 2: So appreciate you donating to the show. Mad Max.
Speaker 1: Is Michigan playing like a powerhouse Againstince the loss to
Wisconsin cover last four ats? Is this another smash mop spot?
I'm leaning yes. Also, thoughts on the team total, Rob,
you know who brought that up? I think that was us.
I think we said, all right, you know, Michigan, there
they're playing all these games where they're winning and not covering.
And then it was the Michigan State game on a
Friday night where we thought the pendulum swung too far.
They went in and won that game, and now they're
starting to cover games left and right, probably because the
pendulum hasn't swung far enough back in the other direction.
I also think they benefited from Penn State being a
little bit shorthanded the other night. So I guess you
could make the argument that are they getting over inflated again? Maybe,
But I guess I'll throw this to you smash spot
for the Wolverines tonight.
Speaker 2: Do you agree with mad Max?
Speaker 3: I do in the sense that I listen, Chris Collins
team is never gonna give up the fight. But their season,
Adam is going straight down the dream here, and they're
not even They're not even good at stopping the opponents
from scoring anymore. Like that's one thing you could lean
on with Commins. You gets some three point shooting, you
get a pretty good defense, you get a pedestrian style offense.
You mix it all together, and you're competitive in games.
Just played Iowa as hard as they could on the road,
lose again. But the game before beat by forty by Illinois,
which is Michigan's weight class Illinois. They had no answers
for Illinois whatsoever. And Illinois brings a lot of the
same traits to the table that Michigan brings to the table.
And I think that I'm thinking back to the day
when we had the Michigan Michigan State game, and I
think we pointed out and pretty pretty solidly that while
Michigan State is known for their toughness, their glasswork, whatever,
a good rebounding team, statistically that Michigan probably has even
more size and can be even better interior wise than
Michigan State was, and it rang true. Tom Mizzoo kind
of said so after the game, you know, those guys
are grown men, and I just don't that Northwestern has
the horses to contend here. I really don't. Now again,
you're absolutely right. You're always paying attacks with this Michigan team,
especially now that they're winning again. The odds makers have
put bigger numbers attached to them. I'm trying to get
the current so I can kind of give a solid
opinion on the team total question that was asked. So
we're looking at eighty four and a half in Northwestern.
The look ahead for Michigan is only a home game
at UCLA. They'll probably be glad to get home on
Saturday against UCLA. But I don't know that that's a
major look ahead Perdue and Duke or the two behind that.
So maybe the Ucla game just projecting guys. Maybe the
Ucla game is a look ahead for Michigan because that
purduing Duke after that. But here I don't see it
that way. I think it's just a game where Michigan
rolls in. They just beat Ohio State by twenty one,
took Penn State by thirty one forty one. Again, Northwestern
is never going to give up the fight, but I
I just don't think there's a lot of fight even
if they come one hundred percent. I think they gave
it all against Iowa, probably a route and two mad
Max has thought about over the team total of eighty
four and a half. I couldn't argue you off because
Michigan is one of those teams that can roll out
of bed and put up eighty five. And if this
gets out of hand, Dusty May is not Adam, give
me your feeling on this, but I don't view Dusty
May at all as a coach who lets off the
gas pedal in games like this, like if he's up
eighty two fifty two with three minutes left, they're just
gonna keep scoring. They'll get to nineties. So to me,
you don't have a coach who's sympathetic in that respect.
He's just gonna win big. I think you're probably onto
something with the Michigan team total and the smash spot.
Speaker 1: Yeah, listen, it wasn't. It wasn't Dusty May not trying
to cover in those games. It was the numbers in
the games that miss Michigan. They were the string of games.
So they crushed USC and then they played one, two, three, four, five, six,
I think like seven or eight games, I mean where
they were just being asked to cover egregious numbers. Like
but like, Rob, how many times did we even bet
against Michigan in that stretch? Probably zero, because you know why,
they still they're still very capable of doing it right.
So it's like, but I mean I remember some of
those some of those games. You know, it was like
Ohio State on a Friday night and they were like
a fifteen point favorite.
Speaker 2: You know, they won by twelve. Like it was basically
that this. This is kind of that.
Speaker 1: Although if you just want to go straight off like
numbers and stuff, I've got Michigan minus seventeen point two here,
not quite the two points i'd like, but I still
lean toward Michigan based on my number. I make the
Michigan number in that to get to that eighty five
point nine, So again not exactly what I would like
to get there, but it definitely is on the other
side of eighty five. So to me, I think the
market has come back to the right place. But you
won't find me on Northwestern here, let's put it that way.
So mad Max, good luck. If that's the way you
decide to go. I cannot talk you off of the Wolverines.
All right, Rob, I'm gonna I'm gonna throw it out.
He did not play this for clients, but it's certainly
one I'm kind of thinking of a little bit today,
and I'm gonna go with a similar theory. So last
night I cash with George Washington, and part of my reasoning.
Speaker 2: There was.
Speaker 1: That matchup. So they had been missing Raphael Castro. They
looked really bad for a couple of games without him,
and I looked and I said, you know, what last night.
Rhode Island was not the worst matchup for them without him,
and the market had moved considerably. I took George Washington.
They covered Marshall is in almost the same spot tonight.
So if you haven't followed Marshall, Matthew van Coman, there's
seven foot four center, the sort of end all be
all to that team, at least it's been this year.
Of course, he's new to the team. This year comes
from Elon, has not played the last couple games, and
they really struggled against Miami Ohio over the weekend without him,
although they were going to probably struggle against Miami of
Ohio anyway. It's just they had no chance with Van
Comen not in there. He was in a walking boot.
So my guess is he's out again. I think the
only reason I didn't fire this for clients, Rob is
this number. I thought I was hoping to get closer
to a pick. I wonder if the market still thinks
there's a chance he's gonna play, and then this is
a scenario where he gets announced out and maybe Old
Dominion takes a little money. So like that to me,
I was if you were to give me Marshall pick
right here, I probably probably end up on my client card.
But at two and a half, that to me still
says okay, they kind of think he might play. I
don't think he's gonna play. So this is something to
keep an eye on throughout the day because you may
actually get a better number on Marshall. But this is
the type of matchup where it's just like, I don't
think it matters. Similar to George Washington last night against
Rhode Island, you got two things working for you here.
One it's now going to be their third game without him.
So like, the further you get away from the injury,
we talk about this all the time, the further you
get away from the injury, the less the injury is
matter slashed isn't already baked into the number. And then
old dominion they're just kind of poor offensively. So that's
a team where it's like, I don't know that they're
going to be able to do a ton of damage
on offense regardless. So I don't think his I don't
think his absence is quite as big of a deal.
And then of course without him, Marshall can go a
little bit smaller, maybe play a little bit quicker. They
kind of Corney Jackson kind of revamped that style a
little bit to accommodate Van Comen. They started going a
little bit more of his zone. So maybe they just
get back to last year. So I'll put Marshall minus
two and a half in the parlay. We have a
couple minutes, Rob, Does that make you want to look
at the over knowing that Van Coleman might not be
in there to slow things down a little bit?
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know I would have asked you that, and
I thought you kind of answered it for me when
you said Old Dominion is not offensively quite capable of
taking full advantage, but the total has been pushed up
at him from one fifty one to one fifty four
and a half, which generally I like to give these
line movements. I would love to give these line movements credit,
but I never do because I think they're always based
when they're of this size, I feel like they're based
on injury news mostly and not fundamental matchup. But it
would make sense that when you take the seven foot
four guy off of the rim, maybe it's a little
easier for Old Need to score. And if Marshall goes
quicker without the big center. I've been burnt on Michigan
totals a couple Excuse me, I'm Marshall totals a couple
of times within the last month. But this one just
seems like, you know, off of your analysis, they'll go quicker,
not as much rim defense, so the other side gets
a few more. Maybe it isn't over, or maybe they've
just pushed it to a place where it's not attainable now.
But I do know Marshall in the past capable of
you know, eighty plus on any given night.
Speaker 1: Yeah, for the parlay, and we are at that time
part of the show where we're gonna recap the parlay.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna keep I'm gonna lay the two and a half.
Speaker 1: All I was saying is if if Old Dominion got
hit at some point during the day and suddenly that
money line was in like the minus one twenty range,
which I don't I don't necessarily think it will be.
I might consider I like it more obviously, I think
it goes without saying I'd prefer to not have to
lay two and a half, but I don't want to.
I don't want to not lay it and then turn
around and have to lay like minus one forty five
minus one fifty juice. So right here, I'm gonna go Marshall.
We'll just keep it very simple for the parlay. Marshall
minus two and a half minus one ten against the
spreadits that's what it is everywhere right now. And then
rob Bino, we're going with another two team or today.
If we hit this two teamer, we're pretty much even
on parlay of the day for the year, within like
a within like a tenth of a unit, So plus
two sixty odds. Rob Bino's got Texas A and M
team total over eighty two and a half for me
Marshall minus two and a half. Let's see if we
can make it a third straight two team parlay. I've
got the five percent play tonight that's up on my page.
Better way to get it is to just do the
joint package myself and Vino. Let's cash some more tickets tonight.
We'll see you guys in the morning for another mid
major Thursday edition of Full Court Press, my favorite day
of the week.
Speaker 2: See you guys tomorrow. Good luck tonight,