Speaker 1: What's going on? Thank you so much for listening to
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smartphone or tablet, and again, thank you so much for
your support. All righty, so, yesterday we talked a bit
about the open rebellion that is occurring in Democrat run
cities and states like Chicago, Portland, Illinois. And I mentioned
at the time that this was a that I view
this as a nullification crisis. It's when states refuse to
recognize the authority of the federal government, and in this case,
it is immigration law. And I mentioned yesterday the fourth turning,
and I've i played some of this audio. I believe
this came from a podcast by Neil Howe. I think
it's called Demography Unplugged, and this was this idea of
the four turnings was developed by how along with a
co author back in the nineties, and in fact, I
think it was Bill Clinton told people to read this
book when it was first published. I think that's right.
It's been a while. I covered this back in March,
and so yesterday, while discussing what is now to me
an obvious example of a nullification crisis that's unfolding in
these democrat run cities and states regarding the enforcement of immigration,
I mentioned the Fourth Turning. So I went and I
pulled those audio clips. So let me start with Neil
Howe again, one of the authors of this concept.
Speaker 2: And it's all suffused with its image of armageddon and violence,
meaning that if the wrong side wins, it's all over
for America. And I think there's a lot of worry
in America about the increasing imagery of violence and dead ends,
you know, for our democracy.
Speaker 1: Okay, So there are four different periods in the fourth
in the fourth Turnings Fourth turnings, obviously, the first they
called the high, the second turning is the awakening, the
third is the unraveling, and then the fourth is crisis.
And so the fourth turning, crisis is what he believes
we are in. He has said this in interviews on
his podcast. This audio actually comes from his appearance on
a podcast hosted by David Lynn, and he was asked, like,
what are some of the signs that the fourth turning
or the crisis is here.
Speaker 2: We see a growing pessimism about in most high income
countries and in fact in a lot of emerging market
countries about the long term future well, people in their
own lives and people thinking about their kids' lives, and
that this is a striking decline. It's a greater pessimism
than and I've looked back at polls going all the
way back to the late nineteen seventies, which in America
was a time of great pessimism, and yet this exceeds that.
And there were reasons why people were very pessimistic in
the late seventies, This exceeds that, and particularly the sense
of long term wrong track, right. You just all the
polls indicate that. And along with that, you see this
growing trend toward populism around the world in politics, often
combined with a certain sort of ethnocentric authoritarian leadership model.
I'm thinking particularly in East Asia, South Asia, but you know,
look at Europe, look at South America, look at the
United States, right, and these are both facets of the
same generational trend. We've seen it again and again. This
is this long eighty year cycle we're talking about, right,
And what comes at the end of that is this
time of crisis where we reinvent the system, a system
which have become very sclerotic and unresponsive because of all
the time this passed since the last crisis. Right.
Speaker 1: So what he's arguing here is that each one of
these seasons, essentially of a society, is about twenty years long.
And after you get to the end of the full cycle,
which would run somewhere you know, north of eighty years,
the people have all been replaced now because everybody has
died just through you know, normal lifespan. Everybody is dead,
and so have you enter into the crisis phase and
then you emerge after that with another high phase. And
if you go back eighty years from where we are now, right,
like the tracks, you've got these these periods where you'd
World War two, go back prior to that crisis, Civil war, right.
So like these the trend lines all kind of act
the same way. And if you think about it, the
way like the natural cycle of things, whether it's economic,
whether it's natural winter, spring, summer, fall, right, And that's
essentially what they're they're laying out, and there is I
don't know, there's there. There's a certain cleanness to the theory, right,
and a continuity to this theory to all things that
we see around us. That things move in cycles. He says,
it is a cycle that tracks with the aging of populations.
Speaker 2: The bottom line is is that you eventually reach a
time where absolutely no one alive remembers how institutions actually
dealt with crisis. Right. Okay, it's at that time where
the crisis is again most likely. And that is that
is absolutely a pattern of history, and that was part
of the whole point of the book is to see
how that works. And this is why I talk about
different types of generations. You know, why we have boomer
like generations born right after a crisis, you know, usually
coming of age, you know, stormy against the strong institutions
built by their parents, often their war winning fathers. And
how after that the system disintegrates, right, we call this
the unraveling. We become a much more individualistic society. We
have it find it very difficult to respond cohesively and
collectively to collective problems. And ultimately that leads us into
the fourth turning, which is where we have to reinvent
ourselves under an urgent threat, and usually that threat involves
organized conflict.
Speaker 1: Right, He says the types of conflict can be internal, external,
or both. At the same time the book was written
in nineteen ninety seven, they predicted events. For example, that
there would be a major financial crisis in the two
thousands to twenty tens. They got that one. They said
there'd be a pandemic at some point, nailed that one.
They predicted a tea party movement aimed at limiting federal debt,
they got that one. They predicted that Russia would start
invading former Soviet states. Nailed that one too. And as
part of the crisis phase, what Neil Howe predicted was
that the crisis phase would probably be sparked by some
kind of nullification crisis. And at the time he said
this was probably about five years ago. I saw in
an interview he said that it was going to be
immigration related. And at the time I mentioned this yesterday,
that Texas was trying to put up a barrier along
its border with Mexico along the Rio Grande, and the
Biden administration sued to get them to tear it down,
and the question at the time was is Texas going
to abide by the federal government's demands? Are they going
to abide the federal court? And they did. But that's
what how was pointing to as an example of how
this nullification crisis would unfold. Of course, fast forward five
years and now you have Trump in office trying to
actually enforce federal law, and now you've got Democrat led
jurisdictions trying to nullify that federal law. That's what we're seeing.
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dot com. No, I do not believe that the marriage
of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelcey was predicted in the
Fourth Turning as a sign of the crisis, But some
Swifties are taking it as such. Yeah they're mad because
she's now like she's normalizing marriage or something. Yeah. I
don't follow it either, but whatever. Neil Howe, author of
the Fourth Turning, talking about the nullification issue as the
issue that would animate the crisis in the Fourth Turning.
There are four turnings, four periods. One of them is
called crisis. It's the fourth one. It's sort of the winter,
I guess, and this is when things before the unraveling,
or sorry, after the unraveling, comes the crisis, when nobody
alive remembers how any of the systems can solve these
collective problems, and so the unraveling begins and then it
turns into a crisis. Now you have this nullification issue.
He predicted it would be regarding immigration, but at the
time it was Biden trying to make states not enforced
immigration law where states wanted to. Now five years later
it is the opposite.
Speaker 2: Nullification is an old theory which really dates back to
the original Constitution. It was there, by the way, with
the anti federalists who were arguing against Hamilton Madison and
Jay Right the federalist papers. They were arguing that the
states should have more autonomy, they should preserve more autonomy.
If there was a law or an edict by the
federal government that an individual state really did not want,
it should be able to excuse itself from it, right,
I mean, this is the idea that we are truly
a federal republic and that states should have their own
maneuvering room. You know, we came together as separate nations,
so to speak, to form the United States. And this
was actually promulgated by both the Jefferson and Madison in
the Virginia and Kentucky Resolutions in response to what John
Adams did with the alien sedition loss. This is in
the late seventeen nineties, and it came back again and
again in the ante Bellamya, with Calhoun and the tariff crisis,
and ultimately with the Civil War, which led us into
I mean that was the ultimate not just nullification but secession. Right,
This is when the states decided to secede. But it
has come up since then, in other words, at what
point can a state decide to opt out of certain
federal arrangements? Right?
Speaker 1: And he said, you're never going to know what the
issue that sparks it will be. It could be immigration,
could be an education issue, taxes, regulation, something anything that
states don't want to enforce.
Speaker 2: But what will happen is they will not enforce it.
The administration will say, well, you must enforce it, and
the states will kind of you know, a number of
states will ban together and they said, well, we actually don't.
And ultimately you see where this leads, David, is the
states say, in effect, we're not going to enforce it.
We're here on the ground, we're not going to collect
this revenue or enforce these regulations. And in fact, that
the the communication of the federal government, what are you
going to do about it, you know, and that then
becomes a standoff of authority. And then if the if
the federal government does not enforce its will, well, then
of course the gate is open. Then states can start
doing other things, you know what I mean. And by
the way, this came up historically, David, in the in
the Civil War when the states seceded, and this is
you know, they all succeeded. They actually formed a confederacy
even before Abraham Lincoln even got into office. We swore
in presidents later then we swore them in in March, right,
so that that five months everything had already happened before
he even came into office. And many people came to
him and said, let the South go, many abolitionists. David
said to Abraham Lincoln, let the South go. I mean,
they're gone. Now we can actually do all the reforms
that we wanted in the United the States. And I
think this is going to be what causes the issue
to escalate, because it will be very clear that the
president and his or her party will not be alligned
to back down. They can't back down. They will lose
all credibility if they back down. So they got to
step it up. The other side will step it up.
You see how this works. These things never start intending
to be a conflict, but they end up as a
conflict because both sides can't back down.
Speaker 1: So the Department of Homeland Security Secretary Christy Nome appeared
on Fox News yesterday and said she issued an ultimatum
to Portland's top officials to contain the antifond demonstrations. Antifont
now designated terrorist organization the Administration the DOJ tracking the funding.
President Donald Trump said in September that he ordered troops
to defend ICE facilities in Portland from Antifa after Christynom
requested reinforcements. Nom said she told Portland's mayor point blank
that federal authorities would cover him up with a surge
of manpower if city leadership failed to enforce basic security measures.
She said. She appeared on a Jesse Waters show after
she had just met with the mayor and said she
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memories that'll last a lifetime. Here is the quote from
Christy Nome. She said, yesterday, I just met with the
mayor of Chicago, sorry Portland, and I'm s' so extremely
disappointed he's continuing to play politics. Did not commit to
any of the promises and said that he'd give me
an answer by tomorrow, and I'm hopeful he will. What
I told him is that if he did not follow
through on some of these security measures for our officers,
that we are going to cover him up with more
federal resources, and that we were going to send four
times the amount of federal officers here so the people
of Portland could have some safety. So this is how
as Neil Howe was explaining, right, this is how each
side ratchets up. So we're not going to do anything
to secure the ice agent's safety at the ice facilities
in our city, even though that's our job, right, even
though when an officer is surrounded by a mob, any
officer in any federal or local or state law enforcement
division comes to their aid to help their quote brother
in blue. But except I guess in Portland now you'll
get stand down orders like we had in Chicago. Just
leave the scene, don't help those ice agents, and so
that's ratcheting up. And so now the FEDS come in
and they're like, Okay, well, if you're not going to
do it, we're going to send even more. We're not
going to have instead of four hundred troops or whatever,
we're going to send in two thousand National Guard. And
then what like, then what's the next ratchet up from
the cities and the states. Well, Chicago has opted for
ice free zones, which is fine because I think at
this point, you know, summer's over, you don't really need
so much ice anymore. It's like kind of cooling off
in Chicago. Anyway, I'll get to that in a minute.
First let's get to Scott. Hello, Scott, welcome to the show.
Speaker 3: I see, thanks am I College. On the subject of
nullification and perhaps secession, I've always wondered, why do we
pay our taxes to the state and then separately pay
to the federal government. Is it possible, on the subject
of modification, that the state could ever take control of
that and collect all the tax revenue and then distribute
to the Feds that portion in which they agree to,
let's say, And then that way each state would have
its own bigger set of autonomy. It would have its
own control mechanism to keep the Feds honest. And I'm
gonna take my I'm driving, so I'm going.
Speaker 1: To take yeah, no, all right, Yeah, it's an interesting idea, Scott,
I've never heard that before. You are correct that the
state has its own department of revenue and then you
know the IRS at the federal level. But they're different
mechanisms because some states don't have income taxes, right, so
they're not drawing that out of your paycheck. So yeah,
I'm not so sure that. Well, I would I would
be willing to wager money, good money, although I would
not do that because I'm not a gambling man. But
if I were a gambling man, I would be willing
to wager good money as opposed to counterfeit money that
the Feds would never allow that. They would never allow
that because it would allow the states to then withhold
that funding, and that's not the relationship the federal government
wants with the states. The Feds want to withhold the money.
They're the ones that want to withhold the money, whether
it's you know, highway money or you know grants that
kick down to the states or whatever. They want the
money to wash through the federal government. And this is
what happens. This is what Neil Howe had mentioned also,
And I see this where you said that you got
these organizations that become sclerotic, right, Well, that's the federal
government and it's you know, state and local governments as well.
They get bigger and bigger and bigger and bigger, and
they start doing all of these different things that they
shouldn't be doing. They lose sight of their first priorities
like safety on a light rail train, for example. They
start creating different departments and agencies and directives to do
stuff that nobody really asked them to do, except maybe
like two people that come down every single city council
meeting and clamor about, you know, some pet project they
want to see done. So I think that and that
then becomes part of the you know, unraveling, where you
are presented with problems and you no longer know how
to address them. And maybe part of that can be
explained with our inability to have debate anymore. People have
forgotten how to have a debate, how to have a conversation,
how to have a discussion. At the beginning of the
last hour hour two. We had a caller named Tom,
and he was calling because he wanted to talk about
something that he wanted or he wanted me to talk
about something that he thought was going to make a
point about the Jews. And I engaged with him and
asked him some questions. You know me, I'm a why guy.
I like to ask the question why. So I asked
him some why questions and his response and I saw
somebody they picked up on it on the text line.
I forget who I saw say this, but they picked
up on it. Is that every time I asked him
to explain why he was saying something or why he
believed something that he was saying, he would shift the
conversation to a what about or this other topic. He
would try to deflect away. This is what I mean.
We've lost the ability to have an actual debate about
a discreete topic or issue. Right If you're going to
call me and say that I should be talking about
the Talmud when I was talking about Christian perssecutution globally
and bringing in data about that in the slaughtering of
Nigerians and such one, I'm covering that topic and your
response is what about the talmud, why aren't you talking
about the Jews? I then ask, why are you asking
me to talk about that topic when I was talking
about something unrelated And he couldn't answer it. But I
know the answer. I know the answer is that he
wants me to bash the Jews, like that's he that's
where he wants the focus of my ire to be.
But he doesn't want to say it, and so he
comes up with this silly question, which is not you know,
in good faith, it's not part of like a Socratic
method search for truth. It's a it's a deflective device.
It's what about ism? And it's a it's a very
cheap debate tactic, which once you realize, like once you
hear it and you know it for what it is,
then you just keep dragging the person back to the
original question, to the topic. It gets exhausting. I know
you've heard me do it many many times, I'm sure
with callers that want to move off of the thing
because they know they are not on solid ground, so
they want to get to a more advantageous position. So
they want to shift my focus to a different thing
because they're losing the current argument. We've lost that as well.
That's part of the unraveling. So when I was a kid,
my grandpa died with Alzheimer's, and before he died, my
mom and my dad took care of him as he
got worse. Forty years ago, there were no treatments and
not much support for caregivers and family. But things are
different today because of the work of so many people,
including the Alzheimer's Association of Western Carolina. It's a great
organization with awesome people with huge hearts. I've been a
supporter for twenty five years. This cause means a lot
to me. I participate in the annual Walk to end
Alzheimer's and I'm leading a Charlotte team again this year,
and it's called once again Pete's Pack. Sign up and
you can join the team and walk with us. It's
on October eighteenth, that truest field. Sign up at alz
dot org slash walk and then you could search for
my team name Pete's Peck. There's also a link at
thepetepod dot com. There's also a link in the description
of this podcast. Also, I'll be am seeing the Gastonia
Walk on October eleventh then, so you can make a
team and join that one too, or make a donation
and help me hit my goal of five thousand dollars.
If you do, I really appreciate it. There are a
bunch of other walks all over the Carolinas. You can
go to alz dot org slash walk for all the
dates and locations. We're closer than ever to stopping Alzheimer's.
Can you help us get there? Will you walk with me?
For a different future, for families, for more time for treatments.
This is why we walk? And somebody asks, what the
heck is an ice free zone? Glad you asked. According
to the Chicago Sun Times article, city property, including parking
lots next to Chicago public schools, libraries, parks, and city buildings,
cannot be used as staging grounds for raids by US
Immigration and Customs enforcement agents under an executive order signed
Monday aimed at what President or Mayor Brandon Johnson Let's
go Brandon called President Donald Trump's forceful display of tyranny.
So law enforcement is a forceful display of tyranny. I
guess all the Democrats are libertarians?
Speaker 2: Now?
Speaker 1: Is that what's happening here? No, of course not. This
is just because it's Donald Trump Orange Man bed and
also they you know, Democrats are viewing this as an
existential threat to their power, right, It's about power dynamics.
They are afraid that if this mass campaign of deportation continues,
Democrats will lose seats in the House of Representives. Because
if you deport ten to twenty million people, and I
believe we are now on track to have deported like
between one to two million people in the first year,
and a lot of them self deporting. I should add
that that decreases your population count in the twenty twenty census,
and that means you don't get as many House seats.
It also means you don't get as many Electoral College
votes for president. See, this is an existential threat to
Democrats' power. That's why they are ramping this up. It's
the latest of three executive orders that Johnson has signed
in what so far has been a failed attempt to
stop or slow the deportation campaign that has sewed fear
and chaos in the Chicago area and at times triggered
clashes between protesters and ICE agents in the city and
suburbs over the By the way, why is it sowing fear?
Why would it be sowing chaos. What's the chaos about?
Is that from the leftist protesters blocking streets, docksing ICE
agents getting into fisticuffs with the federal law enforcemental officers
ramming their vehicles while armed. Is that the kind of
chaos you're talking about. So that's the ICE agent's fault
because they're following law, because they've been tasked with enforcing
a law, because you guys haven't been enforcing the law,
and now somebody is coming to town to enforce the law.
Over the weekend, Trump ordered hundreds of National Guard troops,
including three hundred from Illinois and four hundred from Texas,
to assist in his deportation campaign in Chicago as well
as other cities, which this has now prompted the left
to claim the at Texas is invading Illinois. Lefties, if
Texas invaded you, like for real, you would know it, okay,
you would know that the Texans have invaded Chicago. But wait,
I thought Chicago was already Maga country, didn't. Juicy Smoley
tell us that right in his in defense of his
foot long subway sandwich in a hate crime attack in
the dead of night during a polar vortex. He said
that some people had come up and screamed at him
that it's Maga country in Chicago, so maybe they're right,
maybe Texas is invading. All right, that'll do it for
this episode. Thank you so much for listening. I could
not do the show without your support and the support
of the businesses that advertise on the podcast, so if
you'd like, please support them too and tell them you
heard it. You can also become a patron at my
Patreon page or go to dpecleanershow dot com. Again, thank
you so much for listening, and don't break anything while
I'm gone.