1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Then we are live, my friend, Welcome to the best 2 00:00:04,080 --> 00:00:06,960 sports betting show on the planet. This is wager Talk Today. 3 00:00:07,000 --> 00:00:08,240 I am your host, Andy Lang. 4 00:00:08,359 --> 00:00:11,800 Speaker 2: It is Thursday, breaking down a lot of college football. 5 00:00:12,080 --> 00:00:14,240 Dave Mason's going to join us from bet Online. We're 6 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:16,120 going to tell you where all the sharp money from 7 00:00:16,120 --> 00:00:18,679 ben online is going. If you want to know where 8 00:00:18,719 --> 00:00:20,280 the if you want to know what the books. 9 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:21,719 Speaker 1: No, guys, Dave Mason's here. 10 00:00:21,719 --> 00:00:23,760 Speaker 2: We got Gjeohnny's going to do the Steam report, and 11 00:00:23,839 --> 00:00:26,000 Nick Parsons is going to give us an individual game 12 00:00:26,039 --> 00:00:28,640 breakdown on Sarahcuse and Tennessee. 13 00:00:28,960 --> 00:00:29,800 Speaker 1: You don't want to miss that. 14 00:00:29,839 --> 00:00:31,719 Speaker 2: And we got a really good section of all around 15 00:00:31,719 --> 00:00:34,759 the world for some free plays. Let's get started, bringing 16 00:00:34,759 --> 00:00:36,759 Giohnny while we're doing that, hit that like button. If 17 00:00:36,759 --> 00:00:38,600 you're watching live, If you're watching after the. 18 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:39,799 Speaker 1: Fact, still hit the like button. 19 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:42,960 Speaker 2: Subscribe to the wager Talk YouTube channel. There he is 20 00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:46,200 after a couple of days off the show. But because 21 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:48,119 just because you're off the show doesn't mean you're not 22 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:50,920 doing shows, Johnny, Yes, that's. 23 00:00:50,759 --> 00:00:53,520 Speaker 1: Like you missed the show to do a show. So 24 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:56,719 how was your last couple of days? How is Contender series? 25 00:00:57,119 --> 00:01:01,880 Speaker 3: Wonderful, wonderful turn the profit on Contender hit another prop 26 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:04,319 Parlan and back to back week so that's always good. 27 00:01:04,519 --> 00:01:08,319 Up for the season through the three shows, so that's 28 00:01:08,359 --> 00:01:10,359 always a lot of fun. But I've only released one 29 00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:14,319 premium play to subscribers over three weeks of Contender. You know, 30 00:01:14,359 --> 00:01:16,200 for the show, you're forced to give out picks, but 31 00:01:16,239 --> 00:01:19,879 there's a difference between a pick and a bet. So 32 00:01:19,879 --> 00:01:22,680 so far, so good. A week off, this is the 33 00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:26,400 perfect week off for UFC because it gives us time 34 00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:31,000 to really get ready for college football and next week's NFL. 35 00:01:31,319 --> 00:01:34,480 And right now, I've just been so busy with college football. 36 00:01:34,519 --> 00:01:36,680 I'm working with more groups than I have in a 37 00:01:36,879 --> 00:01:40,519 very very long time. And so far, so good. Like 38 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:43,239 I said, we came off a really good first week 39 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:46,079 in college football. I like what I'm seeing in this 40 00:01:46,879 --> 00:01:51,319 official Week one of college football. Already fired five premium 41 00:01:51,319 --> 00:01:55,480 plays tonight, but moved about ten eleven pieces already, so 42 00:01:55,519 --> 00:01:58,920 I could share a lot for you guys, especially added games. 43 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:02,359 We've bet about five or six added games this morning 44 00:02:02,400 --> 00:02:06,560 over the last sixty minutes, and I think I released 45 00:02:06,599 --> 00:02:11,000 only two of those six two subscribers. So I'm staying 46 00:02:11,039 --> 00:02:14,199 real selective, really focusing on the ones that are getting 47 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:17,680 hit by multiple groups and making sure there's still time 48 00:02:17,719 --> 00:02:20,000 for them to get down because these extra board games 49 00:02:20,039 --> 00:02:24,439 move very quickly, and that's where fortunately like Steamroom comes 50 00:02:24,439 --> 00:02:26,680 into play where we could be betting live tomorrow. So 51 00:02:26,879 --> 00:02:28,599 a lot of fun over the next couple of days. 52 00:02:28,599 --> 00:02:30,879 Speaker 1: Andy, Well, let's get into it. 53 00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:33,599 Speaker 2: I mean, some of these line moves on these extra 54 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:36,759 games are in sanity. You got Bowling Green that went 55 00:02:36,800 --> 00:02:39,159 from fourteen and a half to twenty one and a half, 56 00:02:39,599 --> 00:02:44,120 and then you have an even more aggressive move on Monroe. 57 00:02:44,159 --> 00:02:46,840 Speaker 1: It's like, what was half the other team suspended? What 58 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:47,560 happened there? 59 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:51,039 Speaker 3: That move we hit that. I'll give them to you 60 00:02:51,120 --> 00:02:53,639 right now. Get your pens and pencils out, because you're 61 00:02:53,639 --> 00:02:56,520 about to get some college football goal for Thursday night. 62 00:02:57,199 --> 00:03:00,439 Start off with Duke minus thirty three and a half, 63 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:08,039 Oklahoma State minus twenty three, Missouri minus thirty seven, you 64 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:13,919 el Monroe minus twenty eight, West Georgia plus eight and 65 00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:17,800 a half, plus eight plus seven and a half, and 66 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:23,840 then Ohio Rutgers first quarter over ten up the minus 67 00:03:23,840 --> 00:03:28,599 one twenty five. Also saw those those quarter bets because 68 00:03:28,599 --> 00:03:31,719 They're betting a lot of these first quarters on game day, 69 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:35,960 and so pay attention to those because that also help 70 00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:38,960 you if you miss the first quarter bet. What I 71 00:03:39,159 --> 00:03:41,919 urge betters to do is look quickly at the first 72 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:44,680 half line, you know what I mean. Or if you 73 00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:47,319 like the game, Let's say you like that Ohio Rutgers 74 00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:51,000 game over and you see that first quarter get confirmed over. 75 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:53,759 That gives you, you know, more confidence in your game 76 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:56,199 over bet because again, if they got to go over 77 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:57,599 in the first quarter, and that means they got to 78 00:03:57,599 --> 00:04:00,360 go over ten plus points, you get, you know, more 79 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:03,000 than ten points scored in the first quarter, higher probability 80 00:04:03,000 --> 00:04:04,800 you're going to go over first half, higher probability you're 81 00:04:04,800 --> 00:04:07,400 going to go over for the game. So pay attention 82 00:04:07,599 --> 00:04:11,360 to those derivatives because a lot of times you got 83 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:13,159 a lot of sharanp betters that know they're not going 84 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:15,960 to beat other traders to the side or the total, 85 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:19,800 so instead they go and attack the first quarter lines, 86 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:23,399 first quarter total lines, first half lines. So pay attention 87 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:26,600 to ohse a lot of hitting gold in them. 88 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:31,800 Speaker 2: Let's move to Friday. Looks like the pretty aggressive line 89 00:04:31,800 --> 00:04:34,000 on a couple of them, but we went over them 90 00:04:34,120 --> 00:04:35,600 on the last couple of days, and I think some 91 00:04:35,639 --> 00:04:37,439 of them have kind of steadied out. So I'm guessing 92 00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:39,600 you're going to say probably most of the value has 93 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:42,000 been extracted from some of those lines, but anything jumping 94 00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:43,199 off the board to you. 95 00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:47,199 Speaker 3: Yeah, the only thing that the Sam Houston State that 96 00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:50,560 got hit earlier at like thirteen and a half, and 97 00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:53,279 then they came back and Bennett again at like plus eleven. 98 00:04:53,319 --> 00:04:55,720 That's what you want to see if you got down early. 99 00:04:55,759 --> 00:04:57,920 Because again, Week one lines, just like Week one, the 100 00:04:58,000 --> 00:05:02,160 NFL is very different than every other week the first week, 101 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:05,959 in the second week, I think are different than the 102 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:08,240 rest of the season until the final week. And what 103 00:05:08,279 --> 00:05:11,439 I mean is the second week usually offers a ton 104 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:14,759 of value because we only had sixty minutes of football. 105 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:17,319 And remember the Week one lines have been up all summer, 106 00:05:17,519 --> 00:05:20,560 so betters have been betting into them, talking about the season. 107 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:23,519 They bet week one, and then we have six or 108 00:05:23,560 --> 00:05:27,720 seven days to analyze sixty minutes of football, and so 109 00:05:27,839 --> 00:05:31,879 many conclusions are drawn off of only sixty minutes of football. 110 00:05:32,319 --> 00:05:34,879 And because of that, you get a lot of overreactions 111 00:05:34,959 --> 00:05:37,199 going into week two. Like by the end of Week 112 00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:39,600 one of NFL we're already going to talk about these 113 00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:41,560 teams that we are not making the playoffs. This team's 114 00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:44,319 making the playoffs. Like, we draw a lot of conclusions 115 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:46,839 because also we have this sixty minutes of data and 116 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:49,600 six or seven days to discuss it and analyze it. 117 00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:55,199 And I think that the potential for over corrections are 118 00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:57,759 always there in week two, and like I said with 119 00:05:57,879 --> 00:06:02,800 week one, the key is as the information changed since 120 00:06:02,920 --> 00:06:06,160 the bets got in, because you again, if you're betting 121 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:10,240 in early and late July, a lot of things can 122 00:06:10,319 --> 00:06:13,319 change by the time end of August comes around, So 123 00:06:13,399 --> 00:06:15,680 you kind of want to see that follow through in 124 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:19,720 not much resistance, but you are seeing some resistance. Perfect example, 125 00:06:19,720 --> 00:06:22,759 because we're talking about Friday, is Western Michigan, Michigan, where 126 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:25,600 Michigan did catch that steam. They got steamed at seventeen 127 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:28,399 seventeen and a half eighteen all the way. The last 128 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:31,160 account that I saw took a bet on the favorite 129 00:06:31,199 --> 00:06:34,279 was it the team They jumped twenty and went straight 130 00:06:34,319 --> 00:06:37,000 to twenty one most books, and that's when you saw 131 00:06:37,079 --> 00:06:40,839 the TakeBack. So at twenty one you saw some love 132 00:06:40,879 --> 00:06:44,199 on the Western Michigan side, but less than twenty he 133 00:06:44,399 --> 00:06:47,920 saw love on Michigan. So it shows you, even this 134 00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:53,639 early on in the season, that you're gonna get some resistance. 135 00:06:54,399 --> 00:06:56,959 But then other times you're gonna get that confidence where wait, 136 00:06:57,000 --> 00:06:59,920 the line hasn't moved enough and they're gonna just keep burying. 137 00:07:00,319 --> 00:07:04,120 So yeah, great week man, a lot of action, and 138 00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:06,360 we even have some good market games for Saturday. 139 00:07:07,240 --> 00:07:09,120 Speaker 1: Well let's move into let's move into Saturday. 140 00:07:09,160 --> 00:07:10,959 Speaker 2: We got a lot of time on today's show, so 141 00:07:11,079 --> 00:07:13,680 you know, it's Thursday, the sooner we can get out 142 00:07:13,720 --> 00:07:15,800 ahead of some of these numbers. And there's a million games. 143 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:19,079 We obviously don't need to go over a bunch of them. 144 00:07:19,079 --> 00:07:21,199 There's a line I don't know. There's a line I'm 145 00:07:21,199 --> 00:07:24,399 surprised that hasn't moved. It's my Indiana Hoosiers. They're only 146 00:07:24,439 --> 00:07:27,759 minus twenty three and a half against Old Dominion. I'm 147 00:07:27,759 --> 00:07:29,839 stunned that this line hasn't moved. This is a coach 148 00:07:29,839 --> 00:07:31,519 that loves to run up the score. This is a 149 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:34,279 coach that made it into the playoffs literally by running 150 00:07:34,319 --> 00:07:36,920 up the score and having huge games. 151 00:07:37,519 --> 00:07:39,680 Speaker 1: They bring in an experienced. 152 00:07:39,079 --> 00:07:43,240 Speaker 2: Good quarterback, They've upgraded offensive line, they've upgraded defense. I'm 153 00:07:43,279 --> 00:07:45,720 surprised that line hasn't moved. That's kind of my big 154 00:07:45,759 --> 00:07:49,680 surprise quote surprise. Were there any surprises that you're seeing 155 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:50,480 on Saturday's game? 156 00:07:50,639 --> 00:07:54,560 Speaker 3: And here's why. Here's why there's a by order on 157 00:07:55,279 --> 00:07:59,199 ODU on Old Dominion. This was back in like July. 158 00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:02,199 They took out some of the twenty fours that were 159 00:08:02,199 --> 00:08:04,480 available and even some twenty three and a half. I 160 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:06,720 don't know what the line is exactly right now, but 161 00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:10,560 that's that's why. And it's not that that with such 162 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:14,120 a big board on Saturday, it's not that isolated game 163 00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:17,000 that's getting a ton of Indiana action. You know. I 164 00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:19,759 think if it was a standalone game that even with 165 00:08:19,959 --> 00:08:22,720 some sharp money on the dog, you would see the 166 00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:26,600 love for Indiana kind of balanced that risk out. But 167 00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:29,199 I think because there's just so many more high high 168 00:08:29,199 --> 00:08:32,519 profile games, because they got some sharp money on July, 169 00:08:32,759 --> 00:08:34,759 back in July on O Dominion, I think that's why 170 00:08:34,759 --> 00:08:39,039 you're seeing the lack of movement on the Indiana side. 171 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:42,600 Game that stuck out to me, obviously is the prime 172 00:08:42,720 --> 00:08:45,519 time game that everyone's talking about. It sucks that it's 173 00:08:45,519 --> 00:08:49,120 going out early in the morning Texas and Ohio State 174 00:08:49,720 --> 00:08:53,399 only because we knew all summer wise guys were taking 175 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:55,399 the three. They took the three on Texas. They took 176 00:08:55,399 --> 00:08:59,240 the three out right away on Texas went to like 177 00:08:59,320 --> 00:09:02,559 two to an hour halves, and you were seeing that 178 00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:04,919 the money line wasn't a reflection of what the point 179 00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:09,559 spread was because betters that were taking the dog Texas 180 00:09:09,639 --> 00:09:11,320 once the three was gone, they were just betting it 181 00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:13,799 on the money line rather than take the two or 182 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:15,720 one and a half two and a half depending on 183 00:09:15,759 --> 00:09:17,440 the book, they were just taking the money line. So 184 00:09:17,480 --> 00:09:20,440 the money line didn't reflect what the point spread was, 185 00:09:21,039 --> 00:09:23,919 and it just kept dropping, drop and dropping. I thought 186 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:26,399 you would see some take back, that you would get 187 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:30,960 some ofhow state love. It just hasn't gotten there. I'm 188 00:09:31,039 --> 00:09:33,679 interested to see on Saturday if this is a situation 189 00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:36,960 where you have the public and the wise guys all 190 00:09:37,039 --> 00:09:40,960 on the same side Texas again because of all the 191 00:09:41,080 --> 00:09:46,159 hype with Texas that on, because power rating wise, I 192 00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:50,000 just don't see how this is a pickle unless you're 193 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:57,159 concluding that Texas should be a favorite on a neutral field, 194 00:09:57,679 --> 00:10:00,200 a decent favorite, you know what I mean. So again, 195 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:01,879 it's gonna be interesting to see where the money comes 196 00:10:01,919 --> 00:10:04,399 in and it's all one sided on the under. Again, 197 00:10:04,440 --> 00:10:07,240 you have last games game, last year's game to go 198 00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:11,440 off of kind of at fourteen point swing that added 199 00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:13,480 more points than they would have got, and I think 200 00:10:13,480 --> 00:10:15,279 that's why you're seeing a lot of money come in 201 00:10:15,399 --> 00:10:18,960 on the under as well. Be cautious with that because 202 00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:23,240 even though with good defenses, good defense tend to create turnovers, 203 00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:26,519 good defenses tend to create short fields, and when you 204 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:30,600 do that, points become a possibility. So be cautious with totals, 205 00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:33,279 especially when they move, you know, off of that fifty 206 00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:35,600 to fifty one, so you're looking at forty sevens now 207 00:10:35,879 --> 00:10:38,320 and they're still just betting it under as if you 208 00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:39,559 know either of these teams are gonna be able to 209 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:40,639 put up any points. 210 00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:43,320 Speaker 2: Can I Can I give you something that's completely not 211 00:10:43,399 --> 00:10:45,960 baked into the line on this Ohio State Texas take this. 212 00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:49,279 Take Jiotny, take this for what it's worth. Okay, my 213 00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:51,000 one of my best friends of the world. He's my 214 00:10:51,039 --> 00:10:55,200 next door neighbor, Ohio State alum. He and hundreds of 215 00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:58,919 guys they have incredible reads on this Ohio State team. 216 00:10:59,440 --> 00:11:02,600 They are tearied of this game. None of them are 217 00:11:02,639 --> 00:11:06,360 betting Ohio State, and they are right. They are right 218 00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:09,200 most of the time. They know when this team is 219 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:12,840 a bet on and a bet and they are terrified 220 00:11:13,279 --> 00:11:15,159 of this game. So you got a lot of Ohio 221 00:11:15,159 --> 00:11:17,240 State alumni that are normally going to be flooding the 222 00:11:17,240 --> 00:11:20,039 market with Ohio State bets, and I don't think it's coming. 223 00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:23,639 That's that's just it's just kind of my outside take 224 00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:24,039 on it. 225 00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:26,720 Speaker 3: But I haven't seen them. I'm telling you, I'm looking 226 00:11:26,759 --> 00:11:28,720 in the back end this morning, and this is when 227 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:31,759 you start seeing them, because they'd be tying in Thursday 228 00:11:31,799 --> 00:11:35,799 parlays with Saturday like that, and I'm just anything I'm 229 00:11:35,840 --> 00:11:39,759 seeing is already on the Texas sign even like teasers. 230 00:11:39,759 --> 00:11:45,000 They're putting in teasers and text taking Texas up as well. 231 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:48,440 So it's it's it's just a lot of money on 232 00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:51,080 that Texas signed and week one again, it was even 233 00:11:51,080 --> 00:11:54,559 tough to them bet on it yesterday because what do 234 00:11:54,600 --> 00:11:57,960 I have. I have preview magazines to share, Like everything 235 00:11:58,039 --> 00:12:01,519 is just like projections. We don't have any data to 236 00:12:01,600 --> 00:12:05,039 go on. Everything is more or less like what we're 237 00:12:05,279 --> 00:12:08,840 projecting to happen, you know, and most of its on 238 00:12:08,919 --> 00:12:11,559 analysis that we've all read, we're all reading the same things, 239 00:12:11,559 --> 00:12:16,279 we're all analyzing the same you know, breakdowns of these teams. 240 00:12:16,960 --> 00:12:18,840 But then once you get into week one, week two, 241 00:12:18,879 --> 00:12:20,879 that's what I love. When you start getting some data. 242 00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:24,440 Does it actually match up with what we thought, you know, 243 00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:27,480 going into the season. That's where it starts to get interesting. 244 00:12:27,559 --> 00:12:29,399 But week one, it's like we're all kind of just 245 00:12:29,519 --> 00:12:32,879 guessing and reading off what we think they got. This 246 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:37,759 many returning starters, they have a quarterback in their offensive 247 00:12:37,799 --> 00:12:40,320 line is rebuilt, like you don't know how it's going 248 00:12:40,399 --> 00:12:42,159 to perform until they go out there and actually play 249 00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:45,399 on the field. So I love that aspect of it, 250 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:48,679 but we all are just guessing in this week one. 251 00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:51,600 Speaker 2: Let's do some questions here in the chaff. You guys 252 00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:53,080 got any questions like came in there? 253 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:54,480 Speaker 1: Me and Johnny are going to talk for. 254 00:12:54,440 --> 00:12:56,399 Speaker 2: A bit because Dave Mason is stuck on a flight, 255 00:12:57,039 --> 00:12:57,919 so we have no Dave Mason. 256 00:12:57,960 --> 00:12:58,200 Speaker 1: Gary. 257 00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:00,399 Speaker 3: He question by Gary. Please watching the. 258 00:13:00,399 --> 00:13:02,639 Speaker 2: Shows all the time, do you all ever bet parlays 259 00:13:02,720 --> 00:13:03,759 or do you do straight bets? 260 00:13:03,799 --> 00:13:04,799 Speaker 1: I'll go first, Johnny. 261 00:13:04,879 --> 00:13:07,679 Speaker 2: I bet parlays all the time, but they're not normally 262 00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:12,320 in the main sports I won't have a college football parlays. 263 00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:15,240 I definitely will not have. I don't do daily sport 264 00:13:15,279 --> 00:13:19,159 parlays like MLB, NBA. I've done a couple of sing 265 00:13:19,159 --> 00:13:21,759 game parlays and WNBA when you got a good read 266 00:13:21,799 --> 00:13:23,360 on a team, we hit a couple with the fever. 267 00:13:24,480 --> 00:13:29,720 But I'm parlaying tennis, I'm parlaying MMA. I'm parlaying some 268 00:13:29,759 --> 00:13:31,440 of those sports that are a little bit more off 269 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:32,080 the beaten path. 270 00:13:32,159 --> 00:13:33,159 Speaker 1: Your take on parlays. 271 00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:38,120 Speaker 3: If somebody's making money, long term profit off of parlays, 272 00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:40,240 God bless them, keep firing away. Do your thing. Don't 273 00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:43,960 let me change you at all. But havn't been in 274 00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:46,360 sports betting as long as I've been, and haven't been 275 00:13:46,399 --> 00:13:49,240 on both sides, the book making side and the betting side. 276 00:13:49,279 --> 00:13:51,720 What I can tell you is the majority of profit 277 00:13:51,879 --> 00:13:55,120 that book makers make come from parlays. The hold on 278 00:13:55,200 --> 00:13:57,440 straight bets is four and a half percent, which means 279 00:13:57,480 --> 00:13:59,279 we already know out of every one hundred dollars we 280 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:01,759 bet they expect to make four dollars and fifty cents 281 00:14:01,799 --> 00:14:04,639 off of us on parlays. Out of everye hundred dollars 282 00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:07,039 we bet they expect to make upwards of twenty five 283 00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:10,759 thirty dollars, so seven eight x the amount of money 284 00:14:10,960 --> 00:14:13,879 off the parlays. And why is that? It's because number one, 285 00:14:13,919 --> 00:14:16,360 we're not getting tru odds the odds of hitting a 286 00:14:16,399 --> 00:14:19,200 three team parlay or what closer to seven to one, 287 00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:20,919 seven and a half to one. We're getting paid six 288 00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:23,080 to one, so you're never getting tru odds. Kind of 289 00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:25,200 like a roulette wheel, you're getting thirty five to one. 290 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:27,000 It's great when you hit a number, but there's forty 291 00:14:27,039 --> 00:14:29,240 numbers on the wheel. Unless you're getting forty to one 292 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:31,919 or greater, you're not placing good bets. You're getting lucky. 293 00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:34,960 Also with parlays. My argument is we know it that 294 00:14:35,039 --> 00:14:36,919 to be a winning better you need to shop for 295 00:14:37,000 --> 00:14:38,919 the best line, and you need to lock it in 296 00:14:39,039 --> 00:14:42,480 at the most optimum time. In what world am I 297 00:14:42,559 --> 00:14:44,919 going to be able to walk into a property and 298 00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:47,559 have to place all my bets at the exact same 299 00:14:47,639 --> 00:14:50,720 time and I'm going to get the best number for 300 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:54,240 all my bets at that exact time, at that exact property. 301 00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:57,360 It's just not going to happen, maybe once on occasion 302 00:14:57,759 --> 00:15:02,000 that that particular property has it's best lines on all 303 00:15:02,039 --> 00:15:04,879 three of my games at the same time, but usually 304 00:15:04,879 --> 00:15:07,159 you're gonna have to vet it at different properties to 305 00:15:07,200 --> 00:15:11,679 get the best line. That is an argument against parlays 306 00:15:11,720 --> 00:15:15,200 being positive. Ev With all of that said, having now 307 00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:18,360 been in the MMA community for as long as I've 308 00:15:18,399 --> 00:15:22,080 had being with the UFC, I have met specialists that 309 00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:26,519 have turned profit with a statistical significant sample size that 310 00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:30,919 have a positive ROI betting parlays. So I can't argue 311 00:15:30,919 --> 00:15:34,960 what I'm seeing. The results speak for themselves, but I'm 312 00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:39,360 just saying the reasoning is it's hard to conclude that 313 00:15:39,399 --> 00:15:41,080 put in all your bets at the same time at 314 00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:44,200 the same property is going to give you the optimum lines. 315 00:15:44,399 --> 00:15:47,840 So that's a little of the argument anti parlays Again. 316 00:15:48,279 --> 00:15:50,840 If I'm a book maker, I want parlays. I want 317 00:15:50,879 --> 00:15:53,279 parlays more than anything else. If I'm a book maker, 318 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:56,399 I'm paying influencers to put out same game parlays. I'm 319 00:15:56,440 --> 00:15:59,559 putting influencers to put out long shot parlays. I'm not 320 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:02,799 paying it influencers to tell you to straight bet because 321 00:16:02,879 --> 00:16:05,720 my money is coming from your same game parlays, from 322 00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:08,519 your parlays. That's the book maker side of it. But 323 00:16:08,559 --> 00:16:12,240 there are guys out there like Andy who isolate them 324 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:16,279 in MMA, isolate them here or there and have been profitable. 325 00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:18,279 So why would I tell the guy not the place 326 00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:22,679 parlays fire away? But he has experienced, he knows what 327 00:16:22,759 --> 00:16:27,039 he's doing, he's educated enough, and he's very selective, which 328 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:30,480 most recreational betters and even some series betters aren't, and 329 00:16:30,519 --> 00:16:32,120 I think that's why he's been able to get a 330 00:16:32,159 --> 00:16:33,039 positive ROI. 331 00:16:33,799 --> 00:16:36,759 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll just give you a random example of a parley. 332 00:16:36,799 --> 00:16:40,639 We're looking at Sri Lanka over Zimbabwe and cricket, and 333 00:16:40,679 --> 00:16:43,799 we're parlaying that with McLaren double podium finished this weekend 334 00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:44,879 at the Dutch grund Prix. 335 00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:47,440 Speaker 1: Like those are very random sports where we have edges in. 336 00:16:47,559 --> 00:16:50,840 Speaker 3: And we can both made off too. 337 00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:54,519 Speaker 1: Like yeah they are off, Yeah, they're they're totally off. 338 00:16:54,559 --> 00:16:56,320 So uh, let's see. 339 00:16:56,799 --> 00:17:03,519 Speaker 2: Uh we had another couple questions here, let's see parlays. Oh, 340 00:17:04,279 --> 00:17:07,559 this is an interesting one. Scott fsu is a thirteen 341 00:17:07,559 --> 00:17:09,640 and a half point favorite underdog, but the money line 342 00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:12,000 is only plus four to twenty five. 343 00:17:12,160 --> 00:17:14,119 Speaker 1: How does that happen? I'll let you go first on 344 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:15,559 this again. 345 00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:19,440 Speaker 3: It's the discrepancy of bets that pile up. We talk 346 00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:21,480 about it all the time in the Super Bowl, where 347 00:17:21,839 --> 00:17:24,720 ten minutes before kickoff, the favorite on the money line 348 00:17:24,759 --> 00:17:27,400 is almost always going to be positive ev because it's 349 00:17:27,440 --> 00:17:30,119 it's a time when people are betting that usually don't 350 00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:32,960 bet all year. So let's say Team A in the 351 00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:35,599 Super Bowl is a six point favorite over Team B, 352 00:17:35,920 --> 00:17:37,920 and because of that, there are minus three I'm just 353 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:41,000 throwing arbitrary numbers. Now, they're a minus three hundred on 354 00:17:41,079 --> 00:17:43,240 the money line, that the dog is plus two to 355 00:17:43,240 --> 00:17:45,319 twenty on the takee back. So I've never placed a bet, 356 00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:46,799 but I'm going to a party. I want to go 357 00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:49,640 have a route and side I go to the window. 358 00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:51,119 I would just wanted to only got ten bucks. I 359 00:17:51,160 --> 00:17:53,200 want to bet ten dollars, but I like Team A, 360 00:17:53,559 --> 00:17:54,960 And they tell me, all right, if you bet ten 361 00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:57,279 dollars on teammate to win, you're only going to get back, 362 00:17:57,480 --> 00:17:59,880 you know, four dollars, five dollars. Let's say whatever it 363 00:17:59,960 --> 00:18:03,559 is is. But if I take Team B with the points, 364 00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:05,359 I'm only going to get nine dollars. What if I 365 00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:07,720 take Team B to win the game, all of a sudden, 366 00:18:07,839 --> 00:18:10,839 your ten dollars turns into twenty two dollars. That sounds 367 00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:15,400 a lot more advantageous to most recreational bets. They want 368 00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:17,000 to put up a little money to win a lot, 369 00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:19,119 So what they do is they start betting the money 370 00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:22,079 line instead of taking the points. When that happens, there's 371 00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:27,519 an imbalance of money line bets. That imbalance forces them 372 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:31,200 to adjust the betting line on the money line even 373 00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:34,440 though the point spread hasn't been adjusted. So it's a 374 00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:37,039 lot of money line bets that do it, and you 375 00:18:37,079 --> 00:18:40,079 see it usually with lower point spreads. You rarely see 376 00:18:40,079 --> 00:18:42,480 it with thirteen and a half's fourteen's where they're gonna, 377 00:18:42,759 --> 00:18:46,200 you know, take the money line dog. But that's usually 378 00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:50,240 the reason FSU did get steam. But I didn't get 379 00:18:50,599 --> 00:18:52,200 see steam on any money line. 380 00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:56,960 Speaker 2: All right, last question from the chat here any tennis 381 00:18:57,000 --> 00:19:01,880 looks today. DraftKings has a no sweat promo. No sweat really? 382 00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:04,480 So now, so Jody not, not only do we have 383 00:19:04,559 --> 00:19:06,319 to give him a tennis witter, it's got to be 384 00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:09,000 no sweat. I'll go first take a look at that 385 00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:12,519 Royer brooks By over thirty eight and a half games. 386 00:19:12,519 --> 00:19:15,160 Brooksby just came off of a five setter. These guys 387 00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:17,279 are pretty close. The money line's telling you the game 388 00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:20,319 is going to be close. I would expect maybe probably 389 00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:22,480 one of these sets to go seven to six. I 390 00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:25,319 would expect four, maybe five sets, which gives you a 391 00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:27,720 ton of games. So I'll tell you, look at Brooksby 392 00:19:27,799 --> 00:19:30,279 Warrior over thirty eight and a half games. 393 00:19:30,279 --> 00:19:30,799 Speaker 1: What do you got? 394 00:19:31,599 --> 00:19:34,920 Speaker 3: I can't do. I don't have any tennis that he 395 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:37,119 asked for, But I have soccer for you really quick. 396 00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:42,079 Europa Conference League, go under two and a half. Santa 397 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:45,440 Clara versus Shamrock Rovers under two and a half. Santa 398 00:19:45,519 --> 00:19:48,559 Clara Shamrock Rovers. We laid one sixty to go under 399 00:19:48,599 --> 00:19:51,559 two and a half. Probably go under two there as well. 400 00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:56,319 And then Raccal versus Arba, Racal versus Arba also in 401 00:19:56,400 --> 00:19:59,759 European Conference League, and we're going under two and a 402 00:19:59,799 --> 00:20:02,400 half there as well. So two under two and a 403 00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:05,079 half for you in soccer. It's the best I could do. 404 00:20:05,079 --> 00:20:08,279 Speaker 2: Don't have tennis, all right, let's finish up with baseball. 405 00:20:08,319 --> 00:20:10,079 Speaker 1: We got limited. Oh, I had to tell you this. 406 00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:16,440 Speaker 2: So when you were going the Rockies, the Astros took 407 00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:18,680 a ton of money. On Tuesday, we talked about it. 408 00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:20,759 They opened like minus three fifty minus. They moved up 409 00:20:20,759 --> 00:20:23,920 to almost four hundred. Rockies win the very next day, 410 00:20:24,039 --> 00:20:26,200 Rockies take a ton of movie, Rockies. 411 00:20:25,839 --> 00:20:27,079 Speaker 1: Get blown out. 412 00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:30,000 Speaker 2: You keep saying like you gotta bet all of these 413 00:20:30,079 --> 00:20:32,160 Rockies games. Like, if you're betting on the Rockies, you 414 00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:33,599 just got to stick to it and say they're gonna 415 00:20:33,599 --> 00:20:36,400 win one out of three and you're gonna be profitable. 416 00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:37,480 Speaker 1: But I kind of chuck. 417 00:20:37,759 --> 00:20:40,200 Speaker 3: Scary to do, Bro, You're running into a burning building 418 00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:43,480 while everyone's running out of it, you know what I mean? Yeah, 419 00:20:43,519 --> 00:20:44,119 it's hard to do. 420 00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:47,119 Speaker 1: Yeah, what do we got and steam them for. 421 00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:50,640 Speaker 3: Not not much? In baseball in fact, just two dogs, 422 00:20:51,319 --> 00:20:55,039 smaller board, but two dogs. They steamed immediately that, multiple 423 00:20:55,079 --> 00:20:56,839 groups got down on the rest. There's a lot of 424 00:20:56,839 --> 00:21:00,519 manipulation going on again. All the attentions on college football 425 00:21:00,559 --> 00:21:02,720 right now, and it's about to be on the NFL 426 00:21:02,839 --> 00:21:05,279 as well. Baseball is going to take a back seat. 427 00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:09,240 So you have a lot less recreational better money entering 428 00:21:09,279 --> 00:21:13,079 the pool. A majority is now sharp because of that, 429 00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:16,039 they are forced to manipulate a lot of these lines, 430 00:21:16,079 --> 00:21:19,960 and you do it with overnights in early morning smaller limits, 431 00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:22,400 so you could come back later when the limits are 432 00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:25,079 much greater and actually get down on what you like 433 00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:29,240 with a better number. So pay attention to line moves, 434 00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,920 pay attention to odds logic, or at least the wage 435 00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:36,839 to talk free odd screen. Talk to a guy yesterday 436 00:21:36,839 --> 00:21:40,240 who did him a net call with me. That's a subscriber, 437 00:21:40,799 --> 00:21:44,440 and he was saying, how the odds logic Because I 438 00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:46,079 gave him a link to it. He's like, it actually 439 00:21:46,079 --> 00:21:48,920 made him some money just being able to get up 440 00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:52,319 to the second lines. That stuff does matter. Here's what 441 00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:56,079 they're on. Arizona plus one forty five and the White 442 00:21:56,079 --> 00:21:59,079 Sox plus one eighty. Those are the two dogs that 443 00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:02,440 multiple groups got behind the day. The rest. Like I said, 444 00:22:02,599 --> 00:22:05,279 I'm seeing a lot of manipulation going on. I'm not 445 00:22:05,279 --> 00:22:08,000 confirming anything till later in the day, but those two 446 00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:12,599 Arizona and the White Sox definitely sharp again. You're gonna 447 00:22:12,599 --> 00:22:14,599 be ba having the bet bad teams down the stretch, 448 00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:16,359 and you're gonna have to fade the best teams down 449 00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:19,200 the stretch if you want to find some value, because 450 00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:21,680 everyone knows who needs to win, and everyone knows who 451 00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:25,000 the bad teams are. By now, it's no secret Colorado sucks. 452 00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:29,000 It's no secret, you know. And now we all know 453 00:22:29,079 --> 00:22:33,960 the White socks are terrible. That's no Secretslutely again, the 454 00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:35,839 money line becomes a great equalizer. 455 00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:40,000 Speaker 1: All right, Gianni, great segment. What do you have everyone 456 00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:41,920 up on this Thursday Tomorrow? 457 00:22:42,079 --> 00:22:48,160 Speaker 3: Oh, no, TOMORRS Friday, Well Saturday, nine Pacific, twelve Eastern. 458 00:22:48,279 --> 00:22:51,599 As soon as those games kick off, steam room is 459 00:22:51,759 --> 00:22:56,079 live and three open to everyone. We will be betting 460 00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:59,880 live college football. You will be getting those extra games 461 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:05,400 any player prompts, will have baseball, WNBA, any of the soccer, tennis, 462 00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:08,160 all that stuff live coming in throughout the steam Room 463 00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:11,359 will set up for college football and NFL seasons. I'll 464 00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:14,599 explain exactly what we're doing throughout the season with the 465 00:23:14,599 --> 00:23:18,160 steam Room on Sundays, with the NFL teasers, all that stuff. 466 00:23:18,279 --> 00:23:21,000 So make sure you join me tomorrow, bring any questions, 467 00:23:21,039 --> 00:23:23,799 you have, any matchups you want me to break down. 468 00:23:23,839 --> 00:23:26,400 I will do that too. It'll be free tomorrow to 469 00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:30,440 all Saturday. Forgive me for today. I have my Thursday 470 00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:33,559 night college football package up already with multiple four percent plays. 471 00:23:33,559 --> 00:23:36,240 I think I got five premiums in there. Staying selected. 472 00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:39,359 I have Friday action already, I have my Saturday College 473 00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:42,400 Football with the first five percent big move of the 474 00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:45,640 college football season. We're not wasting any time. We had 475 00:23:45,799 --> 00:23:49,200 a really good week zero. Let's follow that up now 476 00:23:49,599 --> 00:23:52,960 and yeah, NFL is next week, so yeah, just the 477 00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:54,960 best time of the year man for sports betters. I've 478 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:58,640 done this now for thirty forty years and still like 479 00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:01,200 the first week of NFL feel like the kid like 480 00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:04,519 I wake up like a kid on Christmas every first 481 00:24:04,559 --> 00:24:07,440 Sunday of NFL. And I've done it now thirty forty 482 00:24:07,519 --> 00:24:09,680 years and it's still the same. I still love it. 483 00:24:09,759 --> 00:24:11,720 So thank you, Thank you for your time. Hope you 484 00:24:11,759 --> 00:24:15,839 guys do damage tonight tomorrow, this weekend, in the entire season, 485 00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:17,799 whether you follow our faith, but head on over to 486 00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:19,960 wayestalk dot com, come to the steam room, and don't 487 00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:23,079 forget free pm ram plays. We've been crushing the free plays, 488 00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:25,200 so don't forget to check those out as well. 489 00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:28,839 Speaker 2: Johnny Greek everyone, we're gonna get you ready for the 490 00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:31,599 weekend tomorrow. Thank you so much for joining us. We're 491 00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:33,960 gonna keep the show rolling. We're gonna bring in Nick Parson. 492 00:24:34,039 --> 00:24:38,440 Let's get an individual game breakdown on Syracuse in Tennessee. 493 00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:40,680 This is this is odd because normally Nick's on here 494 00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:43,799 giving us winners in CFL with the points. 495 00:24:43,799 --> 00:24:46,240 Speaker 1: So we're gonna shake it up here a little bit. 496 00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:50,119 Speaker 2: Yeah, Nick, I'm like kind of going through withdrawal. I 497 00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:53,119 don't see like a rough Riders plus three or a 498 00:24:53,559 --> 00:24:56,960 Els plus eleven and a half there. Instead, we're gonna 499 00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:59,039 go to uh, let's get a little bit more technical 500 00:24:59,039 --> 00:25:02,519 and a little bit more of a specific breakdown Syracuse 501 00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:05,039 and Tennessee, and then after that we're going to talk 502 00:25:05,039 --> 00:25:07,519 about a couple of contests in the NFL. 503 00:25:07,839 --> 00:25:09,559 Speaker 1: Now you've entered, entered, and we're going to. 504 00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:11,599 Speaker 2: Get your strategies. But let's talk to Syracuse Tennessee. What 505 00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:12,440 do you see in this game? 506 00:25:14,559 --> 00:25:18,039 Speaker 4: Well, I think that the offense for the Orange is 507 00:25:18,079 --> 00:25:20,920 poised to take a significant step back this year. Andy 508 00:25:21,599 --> 00:25:23,960 they lost Kyle McCord in the off season. Of course, 509 00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:28,279 Syracuse also only brings back thirty seven percent of its 510 00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:31,920 offensive production from last season, and so that's the least 511 00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:37,240 among all of the ACC teams. They Syracuse brought in 512 00:25:37,559 --> 00:25:41,680 former Notre Dame hopeful Steve Angeli to hopefully get the 513 00:25:41,759 --> 00:25:44,720 job done under center, but it looks like he's going 514 00:25:44,799 --> 00:25:46,759 to have his hands full here in this first game. 515 00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:51,200 Tennessee's offense, though, was also about to suffer some growing 516 00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:56,880 pains as well. It lost Nico Iamaalva to UCLA and 517 00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:59,680 so the Balls. They also lost their leading rusher from 518 00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:01,960 a year They also lost a bunch of their top 519 00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:05,559 receivers from a year ago. Tennessee did finish ten and 520 00:26:05,599 --> 00:26:07,640 three last year, and then it lost in the first 521 00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:12,440 round of the College Football Playoff. So I mean, this offense, 522 00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:15,079 it does appear like it's going to need a little 523 00:26:15,079 --> 00:26:19,680 bit of time to develop some chemistry. But Tennessee the 524 00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:22,519 reason it did so well last season wasn't necessarily about 525 00:26:22,519 --> 00:26:26,440 the offense. It was their defense. Last year, they only 526 00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:29,039 allowed sixteen point one points per game, and so that 527 00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:32,400 was seventh in the country. Now the Orange, they weren't 528 00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:34,559 nearly as good on the defensive end. They allowed twenty 529 00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:38,880 nine point two points per game. Tennessee obviously a big 530 00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:41,240 favorite here, but I just I don't see the Balls 531 00:26:41,279 --> 00:26:44,599 running up the score in this neutral location. This one 532 00:26:44,759 --> 00:26:49,960 is in Atlanta. I've I always believe that unfamiliar, unfamiliarity 533 00:26:50,079 --> 00:26:53,960 of surroundings will always have an impact on players, especially 534 00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:57,000 at the collegiate level. And so from my point of view, Andy, 535 00:26:57,039 --> 00:26:59,599 I just believe there are enough factors that all point 536 00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:01,960 to this being a lower scoring final outcome, and so 537 00:27:02,559 --> 00:27:04,359 I'm going to roll with the under in this one. 538 00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:07,799 Speaker 2: Love it, love it always taking the points. Taking the 539 00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:10,559 under kind of the opposite of what the public does. So, 540 00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:13,359 all right, you're doing something interesting here. You're entering a 541 00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:16,440 couple NFL contests. I want to make sure I read 542 00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:20,079 this right. So you're entering the Betting Memo Show. You're 543 00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:24,200 entering it as an entry into both Circa and the 544 00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:28,279 Super Contest, all right, So moving forward, you're going to 545 00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:31,160 be talking about the picks on all these So all right, 546 00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:34,480 what's the strategy of when you're entering in two different 547 00:27:34,519 --> 00:27:37,319 contests but it's the same type of contest. 548 00:27:37,759 --> 00:27:40,680 Speaker 4: Exactly exactly the same, And I need to really clarify 549 00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:42,880 if they're using exactly the same lines as well, and 550 00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:45,640 so if there's a discrepancy between lines, I have to 551 00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:47,480 to figure that out here as well. I mean, I 552 00:27:47,559 --> 00:27:49,319 only have a short time, but yes, I'm entering the 553 00:27:49,319 --> 00:27:52,480 Betting Memo the actual show, which is the show that 554 00:27:52,519 --> 00:27:55,359 I produce for Sports Memo guys, and so you can 555 00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:57,960 check that out six days a week here on the 556 00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:01,279 wage to Talk TV channel, and so, yeah, enter and 557 00:28:01,319 --> 00:28:04,599 then there'll be something that everyone can follow along with 558 00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:08,480 me every week talking about the picks and reviewing the 559 00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:11,920 picks from the week before. But yeah, as you say, 560 00:28:12,079 --> 00:28:15,200 I really have to. I haven't finalized exactly what I'm 561 00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:17,839 gonna do. Am I going to use the same picks 562 00:28:18,079 --> 00:28:21,759 for both contests, different picks for each contest. I'm getting 563 00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:25,759 different opinions from different people before I do that, and 564 00:28:25,799 --> 00:28:27,960 so these will be sort of the decisions that we 565 00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:30,359 come to on the show next week, and then I 566 00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:33,319 will release my official plays and so I'm really excited 567 00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:34,400 and looking forward to all of that. 568 00:28:35,559 --> 00:28:37,880 Speaker 2: Well, if you use the same picks in both, that's 569 00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:41,759 like drafting the quarterback of your favorite team on your 570 00:28:41,759 --> 00:28:44,559 fantasy team because they have a great week, right, I mean, 571 00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:45,799 the rest of your week is gold. 572 00:28:45,839 --> 00:28:49,200 Speaker 1: You have a bad week and now you're just like miserable. 573 00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:54,880 Speaker 4: That's all in Yeah, I'm leading towards that exactly. I mean, 574 00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:57,279 unless you have the season of all seasons, you know, 575 00:28:57,799 --> 00:29:01,039 and it all comes together. But that's the way I'm 576 00:29:01,079 --> 00:29:04,359 leaning is probably taking separate picks for each contest. 577 00:29:04,759 --> 00:29:07,640 Speaker 2: Well, and if you're doing great, you give yourself some 578 00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:10,480 hedging opportunities, and towards the end you can be like, 579 00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:13,799 I'll take the opposite side of this one, and then 580 00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:17,279 then that way, I almost guarantee myself something. All right, Well, 581 00:29:17,359 --> 00:29:19,799 let us know what you decide to do. My vote, 582 00:29:20,039 --> 00:29:22,000 and let us know in the chat. If you're entering 583 00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:25,279 two different contests the same picks, put a comment or 584 00:29:25,359 --> 00:29:27,839 leave us in the chat my vote. If I were 585 00:29:27,839 --> 00:29:32,079 doing it, I'm going to be using different ones. 586 00:29:31,839 --> 00:29:32,319 Speaker 3: In the difference. 587 00:29:32,359 --> 00:29:33,680 Speaker 4: We'll talk about it next Thursday. 588 00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:36,480 Speaker 1: Andy, Okay, all right, well we'll decide. 589 00:29:36,599 --> 00:29:38,960 Speaker 2: We'll decide what the plan of attack is going to 590 00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:42,119 be on that Nick entering two different contests here for it. 591 00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:43,880 Speaker 1: So, Nick, tell everyone what you got going over at 592 00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:44,559 sports Memo. 593 00:29:45,039 --> 00:29:48,920 Speaker 2: And I understand nine Now, the last ten months I've 594 00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:53,079 been turning a profit. August not great, but little regressions, 595 00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:56,240 no big deal, looking forward to a great September. Yeah, 596 00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:58,839 you've had a great run number one college Kappa at 597 00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:01,599 Sports Memo since two twenty twenty three. Tell us a 598 00:30:01,599 --> 00:30:02,920 little bit about what you have up in some of 599 00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:04,200 the content over at sports Memo. 600 00:30:05,079 --> 00:30:05,319 Speaker 3: I do. 601 00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:07,720 Speaker 4: I've got a loaded college football card as well, plays 602 00:30:07,759 --> 00:30:11,960 going tonight, Friday, Saturday, and on Sunday. And I do 603 00:30:12,039 --> 00:30:14,880 have a Monday CFL pick up as well, guys for 604 00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:18,759 Labor Day up in Canada. But yeah, I have. I 605 00:30:18,799 --> 00:30:21,400 am the number one college football handicapper over at sports 606 00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:23,960 Memo since it started twenty twenty three. I only went 607 00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:27,640 one and two in Week one. I had Stanford and 608 00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:31,000 I feel as if though, as that was a bit 609 00:30:31,039 --> 00:30:33,519 of a bad beat. There were some really stupid penalties 610 00:30:33,519 --> 00:30:36,240 there by the cardinal and then yeah, they just blew 611 00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:38,680 it there at the end. But anyways, guys, yeah one 612 00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:40,920 and two. But yeah, looking forward to week zero here 613 00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:46,000 and is Johnny was touching on there as being primarily 614 00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:49,599 a situational handicapper at the start of the season, We're, 615 00:30:49,799 --> 00:30:51,759 as he said, we're just sort of guessing. We're making 616 00:30:51,799 --> 00:30:54,880 the best educated guess as we can. But I feel 617 00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:57,640 like my systems definitely get stronger as the season wears on, 618 00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:01,279 because as a situational cap I'm definitely using the data 619 00:31:01,319 --> 00:31:03,839 from the weekend before or the weekends. 620 00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:07,359 Speaker 2: Before nice Nice and what's going to be some of 621 00:31:07,359 --> 00:31:10,559 the schedule of content over at sports Memo throughout football season. 622 00:31:12,079 --> 00:31:14,440 Speaker 4: Well, the Betting Memo show six days a week, guys. 623 00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:16,359 And so yeah, if you tune in next week, you're 624 00:31:16,759 --> 00:31:20,079 you're gonna I'll have the segment to do with both contests. 625 00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:23,480 Please tune in and we can figure this out together, 626 00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:26,599 and hopefully you guys can follow me all season long 627 00:31:26,839 --> 00:31:27,920 with these picks as well. 628 00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:31,880 Speaker 2: Love it, Love it Nick Parsons over at Sports Memo, 629 00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:35,799 and we're going to talk heavy contest strategies next week. 630 00:31:35,839 --> 00:31:38,279 Speaker 1: So Nick, good luck this weekend. Can't wait to talk 631 00:31:38,279 --> 00:31:39,480 to you next week. Good luck, brother. 632 00:31:40,279 --> 00:31:40,839 Speaker 4: Thanks Andy. 633 00:31:42,279 --> 00:31:44,200 Speaker 2: All right, let's go all around the world for some 634 00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:46,440 free plays before we do that. Only bet that I 635 00:31:46,519 --> 00:31:48,440 have up right now, actually have two of them. One 636 00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:51,519 of them is in cricket, that's in the Caribbean League. 637 00:31:51,519 --> 00:31:53,680 It's a four percent best bet. We're three to one 638 00:31:53,799 --> 00:31:56,559 in the Caribbean League. I know there's not a lot 639 00:31:56,559 --> 00:31:58,319 of people love betting on cricket, but I know there's 640 00:31:58,319 --> 00:32:00,480 a lot of people that love making money. We've hit 641 00:32:00,519 --> 00:32:05,000 sixty percent of cricket bets this lifetime, so we're again 642 00:32:05,039 --> 00:32:06,799 a four percent best bet that goes off tonight. 643 00:32:07,079 --> 00:32:07,680 Speaker 1: Four percent. 644 00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:10,920 Speaker 2: College football best bet is up for this weekend. I 645 00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:14,240 keep it very, very selective and low volume. Over the 646 00:32:14,319 --> 00:32:17,279 last two season, I've released thirty six college football plays. 647 00:32:17,519 --> 00:32:19,799 I've won twenty six of them. That's a seventy three 648 00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:22,599 percent win rate. So when we put up a college 649 00:32:22,599 --> 00:32:25,880 football best bet, go lock it in. We're also offering 650 00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:28,640 a thirty day special using the promo code Andy thirty 651 00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:33,160 fifty percent off thirty days does not get better than that. 652 00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:35,759 We're up one hundred and fifty five units a profit 653 00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:38,480 the last three years. We're up fifteen units the last 654 00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:41,640 thirty days. So short term we're running pretty good. Long 655 00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:44,240 term we're running even better. Did not have a very 656 00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:48,119 good spring, full disclosure, but last month we've really kicked 657 00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:49,720 it in a high year and looking forward to getting 658 00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:51,960 back in the winning ways, especially with this college football 659 00:32:52,279 --> 00:32:55,160 love betting. These team totals in college football, so seventy 660 00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:57,720 three percent winners can't beat that. All right, let's go 661 00:32:57,880 --> 00:33:01,519 to the free plays in and we are done here. 662 00:33:03,319 --> 00:33:06,559 Let's start with the w NBA sky at the Mercury. 663 00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:08,680 I'm gonna take the sky over seventy five and a 664 00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:13,240 half on the team total. Angel Reese Ronald talks about this. 665 00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:17,960 Ski Provtt talks about this. When Angel rees plays, they score. 666 00:33:18,039 --> 00:33:19,960 They've gone over in eight out of the last nine 667 00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:22,039 games that Angel Reese has played in The Mercury have 668 00:33:22,119 --> 00:33:24,359 given up over this total in five out of six 669 00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:27,240 games Reese and Cardosa are playing. That means I'm taking 670 00:33:27,279 --> 00:33:27,680 the over. 671 00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:30,799 Speaker 1: We're gonna take a look at LSU at Clemson. 672 00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:33,039 Speaker 2: This one comes from the free picks page over at 673 00:33:33,039 --> 00:33:36,440 wager Talk Clemson minus three. Clemson is ranked number one 674 00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:39,400 in returning starting production. LSU has one of the top 675 00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:41,880 portal classes, if not the top, but it could take 676 00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:44,400 a little bit of time to joel Brian Kelly struggles 677 00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:47,440 against top ten teams two and four while he's been 678 00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:50,079 at LSU six and twenty lifetime. Not very good in 679 00:33:50,119 --> 00:33:53,519 week one, So looking at Clemson minus three, it's take 680 00:33:53,559 --> 00:33:56,559 some dog money here. Mississippi State at Southern Miss Southern 681 00:33:56,559 --> 00:33:57,880 Miss plus twelve and a half. 682 00:33:58,039 --> 00:34:00,880 Speaker 1: This is from Ronald Kobang Miss this big team. 683 00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:05,440 Speaker 2: Overall, they get Brayln Braxton, offensive player of the Year 684 00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:09,119 from the Sunbelt transfer one and eleven. Last season, Mississippi 685 00:34:09,119 --> 00:34:12,800 State ranked last in SEC rush defense only ten sacks, 686 00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:16,280 so the defense has been pretty trash, lost ten games 687 00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:20,079 last season, their starting quarterbacks recovering from a shoulder injury. 688 00:34:20,119 --> 00:34:21,960 They get a home game here to start the season. 689 00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:24,440 So we're taking a look at the points and Southern 690 00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:27,280 miss and for your team total today, Braves over three 691 00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:28,760 and a half on their team total. 692 00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:29,760 Speaker 1: Nola's going for Philly. 693 00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:33,000 Speaker 2: He's given up twenty two runs in the last seventeen innings. 694 00:34:33,039 --> 00:34:37,079 The Braves have scored twenty three runs the last two games, 695 00:34:37,119 --> 00:34:39,800 both of those on the road. Yeah, this could be 696 00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:41,800 a classic regression where they go out and they put 697 00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:44,480 up one but hot bats and Nola's. 698 00:34:44,119 --> 00:34:45,000 Speaker 1: Struggling for Philly. 699 00:34:45,039 --> 00:34:47,960 Speaker 2: I'll take a little roll here with the Braves over 700 00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:50,079 three and a half on their team total. 701 00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:53,039 Speaker 1: All right, that's gonna do it for us. Great show. 702 00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:56,800 Speaker 2: Sorry, Dave Mason got stuck on a flight coming from Panama. 703 00:34:57,360 --> 00:35:00,679 Story of his life getting stuck on flights and the Caribbean, 704 00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:03,320 South America wherever he is trying to get back to 705 00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:08,000 his cubicle. So we'll do it again tomorrow, guys. We 706 00:35:08,039 --> 00:35:10,920 have a huge, huge Friday show. It's Football Friday, guys. 707 00:35:11,119 --> 00:35:13,679 Every Friday from here on out till next year is 708 00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:14,719 going to be football Friday. 709 00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:16,000 Speaker 1: We are very very heavy. 710 00:35:16,199 --> 00:35:19,360 Speaker 2: We got Teddy, We've got Marco, we got myself, we 711 00:35:19,519 --> 00:35:22,559 got big time surprises and big time content to go over. 712 00:35:22,599 --> 00:35:24,679 So hit that like button, leave us comment in the 713 00:35:24,679 --> 00:35:27,360 comment section. Honestly, what's your strategy if you enter two 714 00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:30,920 different two contests it's the same type of contest, just 715 00:35:30,960 --> 00:35:32,800 the two different places. To use the same picks in 716 00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:36,039 both or do you use different strategies? I vote yeah, 717 00:35:36,039 --> 00:35:38,599 I use different strategies in each contest. I don't want 718 00:35:38,599 --> 00:35:41,440 the heartbreak of having a terrible week and have ruining 719 00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:43,440 my entire week. So all right, that's gonna do it 720 00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:45,159 for us. Thanks so much for everyone in live chat. 721 00:35:45,199 --> 00:35:48,559 Thanks everyone for watching. Have a great Thursday, good luck 722 00:35:48,559 --> 00:35:50,639 on your bets. See you tomorrow. Take care,