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Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It is Friday here. It is

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the best betting show ever. Jone Area alongside mister double

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r one l Steve Merrill again as the pres still

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waiting to be called I think at the senior Poker

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tournament in my neck of the woods there, Meryll.

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Speaker 2: But last I heard or.

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Speaker 1: He checked in with me, texting me something about doing

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dinner or something. So I'm guessing things aren't going well

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at the table right now, given the fact that that's

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not supposed to end until Sunday, and he's already looking

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to have dinner on Friday. So I'm thinking things might

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not be going well for the old Pres, but things

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are going well for us, Merrill. As we've got wild

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Card weekend coming up, We've got semifinal game number two.

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Gonna be hard pressed to let's face it, that was

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a pretty fun game last night for the U and

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Old Miss entertaining for the fans. We got another one

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here tonight before we get to art this, Caesar, were

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you impressed last night with what you saw? Because I

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gotta tell you I was impressed with both teams last night,

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even in a losing effort for Old Miss.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's one of the greatest playoff games ever.

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There are four lead changes in the fourth quarter, so

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I mean, I don't know how you can't say that

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wasn't one of the best playoff games ever. And it

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was a semi final game with a lot on the line,

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two teams coming off underdog wins, and after eight thousand

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round trip miles the last three rounds, Miami a Flard

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is now twenty minutes away, twenty miles away from the

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championship game, so they're gonna have a semi home field advantage.

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They're not gonna have to travel anymore. They've been Warriors.

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And I pointed out once again, you know, we talked

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about it yesterday. It's amazing to me. Every year in

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the NCAA tournament. You can use this in basketball in

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three months, teams that everyone thinks don't deserve to get

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in always make a run. And VCU did it back

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with the first year they had the additional four back

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in twenty eleven, VC went all the way to the

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final four, and almost every year since, except for just

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one or two seasons, one of those first four in

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teams make it to the next week, to the round.

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To make it to the round of thirty two and

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off into the sweet sixteen the following week. And as

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much as these committees get picked on, and I pick

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on them as much as anybody else, shows they know

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what they're doing. Because Miami, Florida, based on the All

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State Playoff predictor whatever that is, yeah, are at eleven

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percent on December sixth, going into the championship Saturday, a

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month ago, eleven percent and the All State Playoff predictor,

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and they got in. Everyone thought Notre Dame was gonna

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get a Notre Dame was at fifty two percent, and

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now Miami's in the finals. So it shows the committee

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made the right selection.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, not they did.

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Speaker 1: And of course you'll have the folks that are screaming

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for let's get more teams. Yeah there.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well, well, Jim, I will say, as bad as

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these teams with the buys have been going one and

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seven now, right, I mean, I think if there's ever

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a reason to go to sixteen, that's going to do

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it sooner, because let's be honest, they don't want I

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don't know, they might not mind Miami or All Miss

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in there, but they wont Ohio State I know.

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Speaker 2: In the NCAA next year.

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Speaker 3: They want the blue bloods. So if it really is

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a concern, that's going to get him to sixteen quicker

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than anything else, and just get rid of the buy.

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And I don't know why they don't do it because

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one double A football did it for decades. Now they

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go to twenty four, so they do the first round

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by also, and we did see North Dakota State get

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upset as a twenty four point favorite this year against

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Illinois State, who made it all the way to the finals.

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Speaker 2: What a game.

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Speaker 3: Florida's kind of done the same thing, right, the big

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upsilikets Oioca. That's the biggest upset we've ever had points

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spread wise in this current format.

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Speaker 2: Yeh eight.

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Speaker 1: I think Ohio State was an eight seed last year,

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which was so screwed up to begin with, but the

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points and they went all the way, So yeah, it's

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you know, maybe more is better here, but maybe don't

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take six months off between games that that might help.

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Speaker 2: Also their nced double A.

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Speaker 1: All right, but we've got wild card weekend on our mind, merrill,

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so let's jump in. Let's bring in our good friend

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to art to seizear and see what he's got to say.

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We'll start in the NFL R tell us where is

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the money going as we head into wild Card weekend.

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Speaker 4: You know they laid ten with the Rams early got

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to as high as eleven, So a little bit of

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buyback on Carolina, but we're gonna need Carolina in the game.

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I don't think there's any question. Bear's open as a

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one point favorite. Now you got Green Bay as a

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one and a half point favorite. Chicago will be a

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need for us in that game. Bill's games to pick them,

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and you know we open bills as high as one

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and a half. The market just kind of moved on

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that game. But we've now started to see some public

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money come in on Buffalo. No surprise there. I think

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Buffalo is gonna be very public. This weekend Eagle game

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is not only Sharp's end public, this is the game Sharp's.

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The public's are together. Sharp's lay three and a half

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with Philly. Now it's five and a half, and the

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public got in on four and a half. Five now

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all the way up to five and a half feels

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like we can't write a forty nine er bet Niners

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will be a big need. The Sunday night eight game,

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Chargers saw a little bit of Sharp money on three

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and a half, seen a little bit of New England

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money as well at three and a half. This has

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seemed pretty good two way action. And then when you

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get to that Monday night game, multiple sharp accounts that

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we respect to Pittsburgh plus three and a half. You

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had mentioned it earlier in the week, Joe that you thought, hey,

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people are just gonna come in and bet the home

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team getting the three and a half over the hook,

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and we have seen that also pretty significant under money

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as well, from thirty nine and a half to thirty

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eight and a half, and I think that just continues

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to go down because it feels like a fourteen to

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ten type of game.

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Speaker 1: So we got It's interesting too because five and a

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half with this Eagles and forty nine ers, it seems

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to be the most lopsided of them all because anytime,

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really the only game where the pros and the Joe

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seemed to be aligned. Here are we five and a

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half's no man's land? Art are we expecting late forty

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nine or money? I don't think we're gonna get anywhere

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near seven?

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Speaker 2: Right?

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Speaker 4: What do we always talk about?

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Speaker 2: Right? Dead numbers?

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Speaker 4: Five, five and a half, These are dead numbers. Now,

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if we get to six, probably you think you would

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do some San Francisco money, you know, I don't think

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that's out of the realm of possibility. I don't think

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we're gonna get the seventh seven seventh teams crazy, because

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that's a big move from a three and a half opener.

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But I'm telling you, we can't run any San Francisco

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action on the side. And then and then Philly too,

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you know, they're gonna be very popular with the moneyline parlays.

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You're gonna have a lot of those money line parlays

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this weekend, especially through the college game in there tonight,

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and the Eagles are going to be at the top

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of the board of teams that are being put in

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moneyline parlays.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Well, and then the total interesting too in that game

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because we saw initial under money coming in right with

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the Eagles and the forty nine ers.

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Speaker 2: Are you getting any buy back, any anything back.

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Speaker 1: To the over, because they may be the public may

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be on the side with the shops and when it

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comes to who's gonna win this game and cover, But

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I find it hard to believe we'd be looking at

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an under in the public market as well.

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Speaker 4: No, Yeah, I mean, you know, we always talk about this.

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Publics are gonna come in and probably bet all these

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games over because that's what they want to do. But

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you know, you start to see in the Philly game,

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in the Chicago game, games that might have some weather

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where you know, it's just like a preemptive move to say, hey,

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let's get on the low end of the total and

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almost let's make someone bettest to the over. Yeah, someone

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we respect wants to bet betest to the over, then

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we'll move. But we like to get ahead of that move.

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And you know, if there's forty five sitting out there,

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let's go to forty four and a half and see

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if anyone wants to bite on that.

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Speaker 2: Let's get one more art.

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Speaker 1: Is there any indication the rams drop under double digits?

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Speaker 2: I don't think so.

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Speaker 4: I think because of yeah, I think because of that

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early and like I said, we got to eleven in

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a sharp account, did take eleven. We're sitting at ten

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and a half.

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Speaker 2: I can't see us a getting now.

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Speaker 4: Could we get back to ten to the opener, That

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could happen, but I don't see getting at nine and

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a half. Nine and then once we always talk about

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if you're at nine and a half. Nine, you're at

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dead numbers as well. I think ten's the number.

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Speaker 2: Tenner is that.

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Speaker 1: I think that's probably where it will land there all together.

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All right, So we've got money flowing in wild Card weekend.

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We got a semi final tonight here we saw Miami

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get it done, much to your chagrin there. Although the game,

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I don't think you got too killed on but your

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future market you're screwed one way or the other.

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Speaker 4: There are one hundred percent. The game was a good

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result for us. Miami winning in that fashion was a

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good result. But it does not over you know, it does.

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We're so overwhelmed in the future book with Miami. Miami

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is just such a bad position for us. But you know,

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this game is interesting because we opened Indiana four and

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we opened a total of forty six and a half.

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We've seen the over get bet up to forty eight

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and a half. And despite Indiana money, and it's all

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public money.

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Speaker 2: We've talked for.

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Speaker 4: This whole week how public Indiana is. There's been the

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reverse line movement of it going down. Wow, despite that money,

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it's three and a half. Now we need Oregon in

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the game, and we need Oregon because they are out

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of the three teams left. Our best result in the

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future book, Indiana is a small loser for US. Oregon's

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a really nice winner for US. So we're going to

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be really pulling for the Ducks here to win these

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next two games.

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Speaker 1: So it's interesting because we saw I saw the total

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go up as high as forty nine and a half

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yesterday and it topped out.

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Speaker 2: It looks like we had a little bit of buy back.

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Speaker 1: We're kind of settling into that forty eight and a half,

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but even that is up from what you guys opened

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as well, Art, So has it been is that the cutoff?

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Like once we get just under fifty we start to

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see some buy back with two teams that have already

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played one another and feel like the defense is No.

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Speaker 2: One and not I.

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Speaker 1: It feels like it's got the lowest scoring end of

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it here. But what are you seeing with total money

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right now?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: I mean, like we said, Joe, you know, it opened

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forty six and a half for us, and we've just

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really seen steady climb there. And you're right, I did

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see some forty nine and a half smoll guess right,

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I think the highest I believe we ever got was

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forty nine, and then we just went back to forty

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eight and a half. We feel comfortable booking the game

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at forty eight and a half. Now listen, in the

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next couple hours, could we get a really respected account

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that takes over or under, absolutely, then we'll book to

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that side.

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Speaker 2: For us.

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Speaker 4: Our total move really didn't come off any sharp action.

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It was just really the you know, the public who's

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been betting the over in the market moving that way,

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so we just moved with it.

242
00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:33,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean basically, the tickets gotta be all

243
00:10:33,279 --> 00:10:35,679
audi over especially and we got it because I think

244
00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:40,600
Miami's total was bet up before kickoff last night fifty

245
00:10:40,639 --> 00:10:43,000
three and a half maybe I even saw a fifty

246
00:10:43,039 --> 00:10:46,080
four at one point, so they were expecting a shootout.

247
00:10:46,120 --> 00:10:47,960
I don't know that we're going to get one of

248
00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:52,799
those here tonight. Look ahead though, for the college football

249
00:10:52,879 --> 00:10:57,720
National Championship with Miami already in whether it's Oregon or

250
00:10:57,720 --> 00:11:00,759
it's Indiana, is Miami a favor it in either of

251
00:11:00,759 --> 00:11:03,440
those spots, or is Miami gonna be the dog you think?

252
00:11:04,960 --> 00:11:07,320
Speaker 4: I think Miami is the dog in both spots. Clearly

253
00:11:07,320 --> 00:11:09,840
to Indiana, it will be the dog. Probably you're talking

254
00:11:09,879 --> 00:11:12,679
on the low end four, maybe the high end five.

255
00:11:12,840 --> 00:11:15,639
In that range probably settles at four and a half. Now,

256
00:11:15,679 --> 00:11:17,600
you know, I've seen look ahead lines that have Oregon

257
00:11:17,639 --> 00:11:19,440
two and a half. I think that's too high. And

258
00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:22,000
now Oregon will get a bump, It will definitely get

259
00:11:22,000 --> 00:11:25,000
a bump by beating Indiana. But to me, that feels

260
00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:27,720
like one one and a half Oregon. And you know,

261
00:11:27,799 --> 00:11:31,679
obviously Miami's playing at home, and Miami's been so wonderful

262
00:11:31,720 --> 00:11:34,039
in this tournament, Like I could see that being a

263
00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:37,840
little bit closer and tighter of a spread. But Indiana

264
00:11:38,000 --> 00:11:42,120
because of the overwhelming public yeah money, India, Indiana is

265
00:11:42,159 --> 00:11:45,080
gonna be that type of four four plus favorite. I

266
00:11:45,080 --> 00:11:46,200
don't think there's any question.

267
00:11:46,879 --> 00:11:49,159
Speaker 1: Is Miami you think or we get that used to

268
00:11:49,240 --> 00:11:53,759
be very public, but are they public still? You think?

269
00:11:53,919 --> 00:11:56,840
Is have we turned you expecting the public to come

270
00:11:56,840 --> 00:11:59,360
out big time for Miami or do you think that, Well,

271
00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:02,080
Indiana will absolutely get all the public money.

272
00:12:03,559 --> 00:12:05,720
Speaker 4: Joe, You're right, Miami is still a name. And you

273
00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:08,320
know that's why we're getting killed these futures because they

274
00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:10,799
were betting them all season. After the Notre Dame when

275
00:12:10,840 --> 00:12:14,440
preseason all that Miami is still name. But this Indiana

276
00:12:14,519 --> 00:12:17,519
story with the coach and the quarterback in Indiana doing

277
00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:19,759
what they haven't done in one hundred and fifty years

278
00:12:19,799 --> 00:12:23,879
of and yeah, the whole thing, like Indiana is as

279
00:12:23,919 --> 00:12:25,840
public of a team as I can remember.

280
00:12:26,360 --> 00:12:28,799
Speaker 2: Crazy, absolutely crazy. Well there you go.

281
00:12:28,840 --> 00:12:32,919
Speaker 1: We got National Championship semifinal coming up here.

282
00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:34,360
Speaker 2: We got wild card weekend.

283
00:12:34,919 --> 00:12:39,679
Speaker 1: Anything college basketball, NBA, NHL related that you saw today.

284
00:12:40,759 --> 00:12:41,240
Speaker 2: Not really.

285
00:12:41,279 --> 00:12:43,120
Speaker 4: I'm such a football mode right now, Joe.

286
00:12:43,159 --> 00:12:44,320
Speaker 2: It's like playoff.

287
00:12:44,399 --> 00:12:47,120
Speaker 4: I'm in like this like tunnel vision of just football

288
00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:49,759
playoff mode. So you know, listen if whenever I do

289
00:12:49,840 --> 00:12:51,639
see stuff, I like to give some stuff out. But

290
00:12:51,879 --> 00:12:53,759
there's really nothing of note today.

291
00:12:53,759 --> 00:12:55,799
Speaker 2: Did you happen to have last night?

292
00:12:55,919 --> 00:13:00,919
Speaker 1: The Bulls and the and the Miami Heat not playing

293
00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:06,080
because of condensation. They couldn't get the damned building to

294
00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:09,639
get rid of it. It's just when they said art

295
00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:13,919
that it was unseasonably warm in fifty five degrees almost

296
00:13:13,919 --> 00:13:15,960
I must spit my drink out. I'm like, you got

297
00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:19,080
and you couldn't get the water off the damn unbelievable

298
00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:22,080
there So, but it should be a fun weekend one

299
00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:25,679
way or the other. Art always a pleasure man. We

300
00:13:25,759 --> 00:13:28,759
do have, of course, a parlay of the day coming up.

301
00:13:28,759 --> 00:13:30,960
Now are we making this NFL today or what are

302
00:13:30,960 --> 00:13:31,440
we gonna do?

303
00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:34,679
Speaker 4: I think we should stick with our theme. Friday should

304
00:13:34,679 --> 00:13:38,039
be NFL and I will give you my NFL pick,

305
00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:40,639
and you know it's a three team pick part parlay,

306
00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:42,080
so I'm gonna give you a money line. I think

307
00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:44,000
the Eagles are gonna roll, so give me the Eagles

308
00:13:44,200 --> 00:13:45,399
on the money line.

309
00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:48,919
Speaker 1: Are right there, you go, Eagles for Art, Steve and

310
00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:54,480
I pressure is on Art the Caesar, always a pleasure man.

311
00:13:54,559 --> 00:13:56,879
We'll get to put it all back together on Monday.

312
00:13:56,919 --> 00:13:59,879
We even have a Monday night game. The pres will

313
00:13:59,879 --> 00:14:01,639
be back. There should be a lot of fun. And

314
00:14:01,679 --> 00:14:03,840
enjoyed the weekend. Art enjoyed the game. Man. We'll see

315
00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:08,279
you again, all right, good stuff as always, Artist Caesar,

316
00:14:08,399 --> 00:14:12,039
and yeah, Mary listen, I mean big weekend here, wild

317
00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:16,679
card weekend. And like Art said, it appears that the

318
00:14:16,720 --> 00:14:21,480
only game that we have total consensus with the Pros

319
00:14:21,519 --> 00:14:26,200
and Joe's is Philadelphia, because that line continues to write

320
00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:29,639
what five five and a half? The total seems to

321
00:14:29,639 --> 00:14:32,600
be coming down a little, which is interesting as some

322
00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:35,399
of the weather reports are coming in, but it appears

323
00:14:35,399 --> 00:14:39,080
that that's the one game where everybody can unite and

324
00:14:39,159 --> 00:14:42,840
agree that the Eagles.

325
00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:45,000
Speaker 2: They're likely going to handle business against the forty nine ers.

326
00:14:46,159 --> 00:14:46,320
Speaker 1: Yeah.

327
00:14:46,360 --> 00:14:48,200
Speaker 3: I mean it opened briefly three and a half and

328
00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:51,200
it's never sniffed that key number of three crossed over

329
00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:53,600
the key number of four, even five, semi key number

330
00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:54,879
now at five and a half as we head into

331
00:14:54,919 --> 00:14:57,759
the weekend, total forty six down to forty four and

332
00:14:57,759 --> 00:14:59,360
a half. As you said, we'll keep it on the rain,

333
00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:01,320
the weather on the East Coast. I know tomorrow on

334
00:15:01,320 --> 00:15:03,320
the East Coast is gonna be in the sixties, but rainy.

335
00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:07,039
And that's Charlotte game Tomorrow, the Carolina game, it's gonna

336
00:15:07,039 --> 00:15:09,399
be almost seventy degrees in the afternoon and Charlotte a

337
00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:11,840
little bit of rain. But we've talked about a lot

338
00:15:11,879 --> 00:15:13,679
about this. You know, we saw the line move also

339
00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:15,840
for Saturday's Bears game from forty six and a half

340
00:15:15,879 --> 00:15:17,960
down to forty four and a half. Yesterday middle of

341
00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:19,440
the day had dropped from forty five and a half

342
00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:21,919
down to forty four and a half. I talk about

343
00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:24,639
this in my two game video for Saturday, they are

344
00:15:24,679 --> 00:15:26,960
calling for snow cold conditions with the snow is supposed

345
00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:30,399
to stop by mid afternoon Saturday. At Chicago. I always

346
00:15:30,399 --> 00:15:33,320
feel like rain and snow Joe are vastly overrated with scoring.

347
00:15:33,519 --> 00:15:36,120
It's almost like the NBA now when these key players

348
00:15:36,159 --> 00:15:37,919
are out, they move the line seven or eight points,

349
00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:41,399
and those teams keep winning out right and covering. It's

350
00:15:41,440 --> 00:15:44,360
just an automatic move for some reason. With weather and

351
00:15:44,399 --> 00:15:46,480
a lot of times the smart groups for the smart

352
00:15:46,559 --> 00:15:48,200
with the sharp groups are trying to get in front

353
00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:49,759
of it and maybe come back and buy back the

354
00:15:49,799 --> 00:15:52,679
other siding middle it. But rain and snow do not

355
00:15:52,759 --> 00:15:54,600
slow down scoring, and we see it this season in

356
00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:56,759
the NFL. We've had a few snow games in the

357
00:15:56,799 --> 00:15:59,879
fifty and sixty range back in December. When does what

358
00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:02,480
you want to keep an eye on? In Chicago, it's

359
00:16:02,519 --> 00:16:05,120
always breezy there, But both Chicago and Carolina and Omar

360
00:16:05,200 --> 00:16:07,559
don't look like it's gonna be anything crazy. And I

361
00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:10,559
haven't checked the most recent updated for Philly, but I

362
00:16:10,559 --> 00:16:13,120
can't imagine it's gonna be too windy there either, wind

363
00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:15,679
and fog Hey, Now, Chicago and Philly have had fog

364
00:16:15,679 --> 00:16:17,919
in the past that can hurt scoring. You can't see

365
00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:20,080
the ball, it's usually a good sign to play the under.

366
00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:23,840
But yeah, rain and snow vastly overrated when it comes

367
00:16:23,879 --> 00:16:24,679
to unders.

368
00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:27,679
Speaker 1: It's so true there we've seen just ask the Bills.

369
00:16:27,759 --> 00:16:30,840
You look at these Bills games anytime it's snowing sideways

370
00:16:30,879 --> 00:16:33,759
and it's not slowing them down from scoring a million

371
00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:37,440
points there. So he did also mention, of course he's

372
00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:42,759
the public love for Buffalo, expecting that to come in

373
00:16:42,919 --> 00:16:47,840
as well, and maybe no more public love than what

374
00:16:47,960 --> 00:16:51,519
we pour art there was talking about how the University

375
00:16:51,559 --> 00:16:55,360
of Miami is. They did very well last night on

376
00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:59,080
that game end game, they did very well the books,

377
00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:04,359
but liability in the future market, it appears the public love.

378
00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:07,960
It's still a big name, the University of Miami. It

379
00:17:08,000 --> 00:17:11,400
appears that they're holding an awful lot of handle right

380
00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:14,480
now on guys that just took that flyer at that

381
00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:17,759
big number for Miami before the season started.

382
00:17:17,839 --> 00:17:18,359
Speaker 2: Maryland.

383
00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:21,920
Speaker 1: Well, here they're on the hook for a lot of

384
00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:24,920
money if Miami actually runs the table and wins the

385
00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:30,240
National Championship. So little public Miami still this day, even

386
00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:32,240
though they haven't won in six thousand years.

387
00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:36,079
Speaker 3: Yeah, and they're gonna be the underdog against either opponent.

388
00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:38,640
In fact, right after the game last night, FanDuel popped

389
00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:41,480
up numbers which are Indiana minus five and a half

390
00:17:41,559 --> 00:17:44,319
Oregon minus two and a half against Miami, and then

391
00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:47,119
as of today on Friday, FanDuel's going to three and

392
00:17:47,160 --> 00:17:50,799
a half plus money with Oregon, whereas DraftKings is still

393
00:17:50,839 --> 00:17:52,359
holding two and a half and five and a half.

394
00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:55,160
So I thought that was interesting. And the total is

395
00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:57,759
also a point higher at DraftKings in both games than

396
00:17:57,799 --> 00:17:59,960
it is at FanDuel. They've got the projected over under

397
00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:02,240
forty four and a half to forty five and a

398
00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:04,319
half on an Indiana matchup, forty six and a half

399
00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:06,680
forty seven and a half in a Miami Oregon matchup.

400
00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:09,559
And of course both those totals pretty reasonable because Miami

401
00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:11,960
has been a great defensive team. But let's not forget

402
00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:14,359
they could be. They could be without three their starting

403
00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:17,640
four defensive becks next week. Two got injured and one

404
00:18:17,880 --> 00:18:20,000
it's gonna likely be suspended the first half because of

405
00:18:20,039 --> 00:18:22,799
the targeting ejection, so we'll have to see how that

406
00:18:22,839 --> 00:18:26,359
plays out here. They don't play until Monday, the following Monday,

407
00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:27,759
a week from this Monday, so we have a lot

408
00:18:27,759 --> 00:18:28,680
of time, still.

409
00:18:29,039 --> 00:18:31,759
Speaker 1: Still got some time, but we still got a game

410
00:18:31,799 --> 00:18:37,039
to play here tonight. Merrill, of course with Indiana. And

411
00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:40,039
you know who's there gonna be is Oregon, gonna advance

412
00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:44,799
is Indiana. It appears that an already mentioned it, Indiana.

413
00:18:44,839 --> 00:18:48,960
A lot of public love coming their way here with this.

414
00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:51,319
We did see this thing go on as high as

415
00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:54,240
four maybe even four and a half earlier in the week,

416
00:18:54,599 --> 00:18:57,400
and then we started to see the Oregon buy back.

417
00:18:57,519 --> 00:19:00,799
It's handled that three and a half, whether or not

418
00:19:00,839 --> 00:19:04,680
against the three I doubt that very much, but I

419
00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:07,319
think what you see is what you get here. The

420
00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:10,240
total is interesting because it got as high as yesterday

421
00:19:10,279 --> 00:19:13,200
forty nine and a half kind of settled back down

422
00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:14,559
to forty eight and a half.

423
00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:16,559
Speaker 2: Whether or not an issue.

424
00:19:16,319 --> 00:19:18,680
Speaker 1: But with two teams that have already seen each other,

425
00:19:19,559 --> 00:19:23,160
are we gonna are we expecting more points than what

426
00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:25,519
we got in the first game here or what do

427
00:19:25,599 --> 00:19:27,079
we think we're gonna do in this one?

428
00:19:28,559 --> 00:19:30,279
Speaker 3: Yeah? So we had a four footing run of one

429
00:19:30,279 --> 00:19:32,519
of the sharpest global books all week. That's back down

430
00:19:32,559 --> 00:19:34,480
to three and a half, so I never thought we'd

431
00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:37,200
see a three, but circa currently, a Friday afternoon is

432
00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:40,440
dealing a minus three, minus one twenty five in Vegas,

433
00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:43,720
so it doesn't look like the fours are gonna start

434
00:19:43,759 --> 00:19:46,559
showing anytime soon. A little bit of buyback on Oregon.

435
00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:48,960
I still think Indiana is the best team in the country.

436
00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:51,799
As we talked about yesterday, it's very difficult to beat

437
00:19:51,839 --> 00:19:54,599
a Class A team twice in a season. The whole thing.

438
00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:56,599
It's hard to beat teams twice. I don't look into that,

439
00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:58,400
but it is hard to be a Class A team

440
00:19:58,759 --> 00:20:01,279
and rematches in the play else the last few seasons,

441
00:20:01,759 --> 00:20:03,440
the team that lost the first one is five and

442
00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:05,519
one straight up. The only time it didn't work is

443
00:20:05,519 --> 00:20:07,319
when Ole Miss swept to Lane, but they, of course

444
00:20:07,319 --> 00:20:10,000
were a double digit favorite the other games. The team

445
00:20:10,039 --> 00:20:12,160
that won the first game is oh to five. Now,

446
00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:14,440
of course, Indiana was in a tough spot last week

447
00:20:14,799 --> 00:20:17,079
because all teams with that extended by the last two

448
00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:19,160
years with this twelve team format have gone oh to

449
00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:22,079
seven everyone except Indiana. The other teams have gone oh

450
00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:24,039
and seven. Indiana not only buck that tremp, but they

451
00:20:24,039 --> 00:20:26,000
won by thirty five last week. So this is a

452
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:27,160
really good Hoosier squad.

453
00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:28,359
Speaker 2: They are my.

454
00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:30,559
Speaker 3: Preferred side in this game. Would definitely like it better

455
00:20:30,559 --> 00:20:32,119
if you can get a minus three, which I didn't

456
00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:34,000
think was going to show, but it's starting to show.

457
00:20:34,599 --> 00:20:36,359
As far as the total, these are two really good

458
00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:39,559
defensive teams. And it was around forty six and a

459
00:20:39,559 --> 00:20:41,920
half forty seven earlier in the week. Now that it's

460
00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:43,920
forty eight and a half forty nine, I think there

461
00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:46,279
is some value with the under. Both forty seven and

462
00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:48,799
forty eight are key numbers, so we're getting about a

463
00:20:48,839 --> 00:20:51,119
three to four percent better chance of cashing now Joe

464
00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:54,119
at under forty nine than at forty seven or forty

465
00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:56,279
six and a half, and that's enough to start getting

466
00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:59,119
leaning under here. My concern, of course, is that as

467
00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:03,039
we saw last night, these championship games, often things open up,

468
00:21:03,039 --> 00:21:04,480
and hey, you were spot on by the way. I

469
00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:07,200
was thinking about our conversation after the first quarter when

470
00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:09,799
it was three to nothing and how comical that all

471
00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:11,960
miss scored in the first play of the second to

472
00:21:12,039 --> 00:21:15,559
open that game up. Yeah, second quarter had what was

473
00:21:15,599 --> 00:21:17,920
it twenty seven points? I think there was thirtieth to

474
00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:20,079
a half. Yeah, there were three in the first quarter.

475
00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:23,640
So there again, you know, first quarter under, first half

476
00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:25,559
under might be the best way to attack. And we'll

477
00:21:25,559 --> 00:21:28,279
get the current numbers twenty three, twenty three and a

478
00:21:28,319 --> 00:21:31,400
half of the first half line. There's some twenty four's

479
00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:33,720
out there juiced a little bit to the under. Obviously,

480
00:21:33,759 --> 00:21:37,000
twenty four is a very key number. First quarter that

481
00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:40,160
was ten to the under. Uh, don't disagree with the

482
00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:42,200
first quarter under. Maybe they'd have to probably get to

483
00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:43,880
thirteen or fourteen for you to lose that one, and

484
00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:45,759
we saw three to nothing last time, the game still

485
00:21:45,799 --> 00:21:46,200
went over.

486
00:21:46,799 --> 00:21:47,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree.

487
00:21:47,799 --> 00:21:50,799
Speaker 1: I think the no doubt the public is gonna want

488
00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:54,720
points and will likely bet the the over. But we

489
00:21:54,759 --> 00:21:58,960
only got forty three outs to you know, offensive points

490
00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:02,799
in that first meeting back in October. Don't forget there

491
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:05,079
was that pick six there that they had in the

492
00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:08,079
game as well. So I don't know how we're getting

493
00:22:08,079 --> 00:22:10,039
to forty nine or more points. I think we're much

494
00:22:10,079 --> 00:22:12,640
closer to the forty five mark than we are the

495
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:13,319
fifty mark.

496
00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:13,960
Speaker 2: So I'm with you.

497
00:22:14,079 --> 00:22:18,240
Speaker 1: I think less points here tonight, not more points in

498
00:22:18,319 --> 00:22:22,920
this one either way. Whoever advances like you guys had said,

499
00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:26,400
gonna be the dog, gonna be the favorite here against

500
00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:31,720
Miami in the National Championship games. So both games, by

501
00:22:31,799 --> 00:22:35,240
the way, Meryl, both give us great headlines no matter

502
00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:36,759
what it is, whether it's.

503
00:22:36,839 --> 00:22:39,000
Speaker 2: Well, you know, Chrystal ball versus his.

504
00:22:39,039 --> 00:22:41,720
Speaker 1: Old team and the guy to replay, or if it's

505
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:42,720
gonna be Signetti.

506
00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:45,039
Speaker 2: Either way, it could be.

507
00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:48,039
Speaker 1: One of the most watched National Championship games we've had

508
00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:51,200
in a very very long time. And there won't be

509
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:53,880
an Alabama or Georgia or in Ohio state involved in it,

510
00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:54,960
which is kind of crazy.

511
00:22:55,759 --> 00:22:57,960
Speaker 3: Third straight season, there won't be an SEC team in

512
00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:01,759
the finals. Yeah, yes, it's pretty hard to believe because

513
00:23:01,759 --> 00:23:04,839
they are the dominant conference still. But you know in

514
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:07,359
the ACC has been so down. Oh and now you've

515
00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:09,680
got Miami in the finals. But we've seen this in

516
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:12,200
recent years. I mean, we saw a phony TCU team

517
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:14,759
there against Georgia. It must have been four years ago,

518
00:23:14,759 --> 00:23:16,359
because it's been three years now we haven't had one

519
00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:18,519
of the finals. Because I just remember Georgia was one

520
00:23:18,559 --> 00:23:20,240
of the best bets I've ever released in my clients

521
00:23:20,279 --> 00:23:23,880
in thirty years because TCU was a phony. Georgia smoked them,

522
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:26,680
and then you know, even Notre Dame last year I

523
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,279
thought they were phony and they would regress this season,

524
00:23:29,279 --> 00:23:31,240
they actually had a better season I was expecting. When

525
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:32,880
they lost the opener in Miami, I was like, here

526
00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:35,599
we go. And then they had the Northern illinoid troubles

527
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:39,079
they've had and stuff like that. So there again, you know,

528
00:23:40,039 --> 00:23:42,079
everyone's saying Notre Dame was ahead of them, but head

529
00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:43,799
to head has to count for something, and it is

530
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:46,000
unfortunate that you don't get a home at home because

531
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:48,839
Miami won by three at home, So that's probably a push,

532
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:51,240
you know, if you really look at it. But still,

533
00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:52,920
how do you put Notre Dame men over them when

534
00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:54,640
they beat them head to head? Even I have to

535
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:56,359
kind of say, that's kind of a good tie breaker.

536
00:23:57,119 --> 00:23:59,039
So in that regard, I'm glad to see Miami doing

537
00:23:59,039 --> 00:24:00,680
well since somebody thought they'd deserve to be there. And

538
00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:03,519
it's obviously good for the ACC because that is a

539
00:24:03,559 --> 00:24:06,519
conference both in basketball and football that's started to struggle.

540
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:10,000
Speaker 1: I think Notre Dame has more of a gripe with

541
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:12,599
Alabama having gotten into over.

542
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:15,000
Speaker 2: Them than anything else. I don't think their problem is

543
00:24:15,039 --> 00:24:17,160
with Miami anymore. I think their.

544
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:20,480
Speaker 1: Problem but always was with Alabama, and boy did that

545
00:24:20,559 --> 00:24:23,480
prove to be an absolute Uh just Dawn.

546
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:25,920
Speaker 3: And another team that you're probably right to that's probably

547
00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:28,559
the other like bubble team, and they also won a game. Yeah,

548
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:31,000
granted they didn't look great against Oklahoma, but that's another

549
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:34,240
team they won a game. And then Indiana Blue the Mounts.

550
00:24:34,279 --> 00:24:35,839
I just keep going back to, like what a bad

551
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:39,799
spot Indiana was in last week. Yep, that's zero to

552
00:24:39,799 --> 00:24:42,160
seven for everyone else against you know, a bubble team

553
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:44,920
that historically those teams make the run and do well. Yep,

554
00:24:45,319 --> 00:24:47,400
we'll see though. I mean, Oregon is a really good team.

555
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:49,880
I right, these are the two best teams remaining. And

556
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:51,279
I will say, if you're looking to play one of

557
00:24:51,279 --> 00:24:53,480
those advanced lines, DraftKings is still two and a half

558
00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:55,480
Fanduels going up to three and a half plus money.

559
00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:58,880
I think that's some that's a sharp move at Fandel

560
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:00,920
and it makes a lot of sense. Look at the scenario,

561
00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:04,000
that's a push that that bet is void if Oregon

562
00:25:04,039 --> 00:25:06,839
doesn't win tonight, which probably might not happen. But if

563
00:25:06,839 --> 00:25:08,720
they do win tonight, they're beating what I think is

564
00:25:08,759 --> 00:25:11,319
the best team in the country. Yep, that has to

565
00:25:11,319 --> 00:25:12,920
make you like them a little bit more against a

566
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:16,759
bang up Miami squad, whereas if Indiana wins by thirty again, yeah,

567
00:25:16,759 --> 00:25:18,559
that line might be six or seven, not five and

568
00:25:18,559 --> 00:25:20,920
a half. But if they struggle, it might be four.

569
00:25:21,039 --> 00:25:23,160
So I think there's a lot of upside playing Oregon

570
00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:24,880
at minus two and a half now, and I think

571
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:26,200
that's one of the reasons it's going to three and

572
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:27,039
a half at FanDuel.

573
00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:30,440
Speaker 1: There'll be a lot of Indiana fans in Atlanta too

574
00:25:30,519 --> 00:25:33,000
for this one, I can assure you with that, so

575
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:37,559
they it'll feel like a home game for Indiana here tonight.

576
00:25:38,039 --> 00:25:40,480
Speaker 3: Do you think Oregon travels home if they win? I

577
00:25:40,519 --> 00:25:41,359
guess they do.

578
00:25:41,799 --> 00:25:44,000
Speaker 2: Well in two week, right the nineteenth, So what do.

579
00:25:44,079 --> 00:25:47,319
Speaker 3: We got nine days? Yeah, that's a week from day.

580
00:25:47,839 --> 00:25:49,160
It'd be like ten days total.

581
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:50,920
Speaker 2: I don't know.

582
00:25:51,079 --> 00:25:53,079
Speaker 3: I mean, and you sure you sure don't want to

583
00:25:53,079 --> 00:25:55,240
make plans to stay because that'll be the kiss of

584
00:25:55,279 --> 00:25:57,119
death that you don't win tonight. But I would do

585
00:25:57,519 --> 00:25:59,960
and I would have done this because I'm a superstitious weirdo,

586
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:03,599
but I would like pack just enough clothes for tonight, yeah,

587
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:05,480
and then plan on stage. So then that way like

588
00:26:05,519 --> 00:26:07,519
you're screwed yourself over. When you win tonight and you're

589
00:26:07,559 --> 00:26:09,359
in a difficult spot, you have to have everything shipped

590
00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:10,920
out there. That's a good problem to have. That's called

591
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:11,920
an emotional hedge.

592
00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:14,799
Speaker 2: That's a lot of travel too. For Oregon.

593
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:17,720
Speaker 3: It is all NFL teams usually don't go back when

594
00:26:17,759 --> 00:26:18,960
they do it. They're in this situation.

595
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:21,400
Speaker 2: So yeah, that's inter a lot.

596
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 3: And there's still out of class, right, they probably aren't

597
00:26:23,519 --> 00:26:24,519
back in school yet.

598
00:26:24,839 --> 00:26:25,039
Speaker 2: Yeah.

599
00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:27,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, my guess is I don't. I'm sure they've made contingencies.

600
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:29,039
But then again, you don't want to get ahead of

601
00:26:29,079 --> 00:26:31,039
yourself when you're the underdog. But I'd be interesting to

602
00:26:31,039 --> 00:26:32,319
see what they do if the end up winning.

603
00:26:32,519 --> 00:26:34,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean go home, pack a bag and hop

604
00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:37,400
on a plane and come back down to Miami, which

605
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:39,279
is kind of which is crazy.

606
00:26:39,319 --> 00:26:41,279
Speaker 2: So that's a good point there.

607
00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:45,119
Speaker 1: Well, well, listen, we'll figure it out here tonight in

608
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:46,920
the second semi final game.

609
00:26:47,039 --> 00:26:49,920
Speaker 2: But we do have, of course, a parlay of the

610
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:50,880
day here, Merrill.

611
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:54,599
Speaker 1: We've got to get to as Art to Caesar, this

612
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:57,720
is our Friday NFL three team parlay.

613
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:01,720
Speaker 2: Art has laid it out. He's taking the Eagles on the.

614
00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:05,720
Speaker 1: Money line for his play there, Meryl for his first

615
00:27:05,799 --> 00:27:08,000
leg here on his three team parlay.

616
00:27:09,279 --> 00:27:10,319
Speaker 2: What are you think in here?

617
00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:12,880
Speaker 1: Which one of these games here are you gonna give

618
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:16,000
us for the second leg of this three team parlay?

619
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:19,039
Speaker 3: Now? Can I use a Friday night college hoops game

620
00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:19,519
or am I?

621
00:27:19,799 --> 00:27:23,119
Speaker 2: Oh STRICTLYFL. STRICTLYFL.

622
00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:26,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna going it could be a total, could

623
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:29,279
be a anything you want in the NFL.

624
00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:33,599
Speaker 3: I'm gonna play the line value with the over forty

625
00:27:33,599 --> 00:27:35,960
four and a half now with the Packers and Bears.

626
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:39,480
Oh no, Saturday night. And now, Joe, this is really

627
00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:41,680
once again I'm reverse jinks to myself because I use

628
00:27:41,759 --> 00:27:43,799
this as my prime play in my video. And as

629
00:27:43,799 --> 00:27:46,119
you know, the prime games are fifteen and three this

630
00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:49,119
year on those free videos here on wager Talk TV.

631
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:52,440
So I'm double dipping here trying to go to sixteen

632
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:54,440
and three on the free Prime games. And as I

633
00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:56,160
told you yesterday, it's the first time ever I get

634
00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:58,920
to say playoffs on Prime. So so much on the

635
00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:01,720
line here. But this total open forty six and a

636
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:04,359
half was forty five and a half on Thursday. Now

637
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:06,200
it's down to forty four and a half on Friday.

638
00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:08,599
Forty five is a key number, and we get that

639
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:11,200
working for us now with the over. And yes, these

640
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:14,200
teams played twice in December. First game was pretty high scoring.

641
00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:15,960
I think it was what twenty eight twenty one got

642
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:18,119
to forty nine. And then they played back in week

643
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:20,119
sixteen a few weeks ago, and it was sixteen to

644
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:23,200
six with two minutes to go, and then Chicago made

645
00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:26,680
that incredible comeback one in overtime. But that was a misleading,

646
00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:29,000
low scoring game. Jordan Love gots hurt now, but Lake

647
00:28:29,039 --> 00:28:31,039
Willis played extremely well, so I don't really think that

648
00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:33,079
hurt the offense any but they still did lose Love

649
00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:35,119
for some of that game. But look at the yard

650
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:38,240
in Chicago got to four hundred total yards, Green Bay

651
00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:40,039
got to like three to eighty. They almost had eight

652
00:28:40,119 --> 00:28:42,039
hundred total yards. I know some of that was overtime,

653
00:28:42,079 --> 00:28:44,839
but the teams moved the ball, and the Packers defense

654
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:47,400
has really become beat up down the stretch. They're on

655
00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:49,960
a four game slide, zero and four straight up in ATS.

656
00:28:50,519 --> 00:28:52,079
I like the over forty four and a half and

657
00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:53,640
the Bears Packers on Saturday Night.

658
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:57,160
Speaker 1: You know what, Steve I mean, I kind of agree

659
00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:00,359
with you there. I think anything is possible. I don't

660
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:04,640
trust necessarily the Bears defense all that much either, but

661
00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:07,880
it feels, you know, it does feel like points could

662
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:09,240
be coming in this one.

663
00:29:09,599 --> 00:29:12,079
Speaker 2: And let's face it, if I'm not mistaken, outside of that.

664
00:29:12,119 --> 00:29:16,319
Speaker 1: Last game, wasn't hasn't green Bay dominated them over the

665
00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:17,960
last couple of years, It's been.

666
00:29:17,839 --> 00:29:21,319
Speaker 2: All green Bay. We know that Aaron Rodgers owned the Bears.

667
00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:25,839
Speaker 1: Gordon Aaron Rodgers, he did anyway, but I'm pretty sure

668
00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:29,079
La Flooring Company they've had a bunch of success against them.

669
00:29:29,079 --> 00:29:31,559
Speaker 2: Also, feels like the points got to happen.

670
00:29:31,599 --> 00:29:33,920
Speaker 1: And if we're not worried about weather, are we really

671
00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:37,559
trusting both defenses? They shut down both offenses. That feels

672
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:38,759
like a big ass No.

673
00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:42,079
Speaker 3: Yeah, I left out the whole key to this handicap,

674
00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:44,440
and it's what you mentioned is the Chicago Bear defense.

675
00:29:44,559 --> 00:29:46,920
This is not a good defensive team. No, you'll give

676
00:29:47,039 --> 00:29:48,599
up twenty four and a half points a game. They're

677
00:29:48,599 --> 00:29:51,480
giving up five yards of carry, over seven yards of pass,

678
00:29:51,519 --> 00:29:54,160
over six yards of play. The number two seed in

679
00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:56,200
the NFC is getting up over six yards per play.

680
00:29:57,160 --> 00:29:59,359
Green Bay statistically has a much better defense. They're a

681
00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:01,640
yard per play better defensively, but they haven't been quite

682
00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:04,160
as good down to stretch. If you look over the

683
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:06,759
past two months, given up five and a half yards

684
00:30:06,759 --> 00:30:08,640
of playing over the past month, they've given up six

685
00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:10,839
yards of play green Bay. So their defensive numbers are

686
00:30:10,839 --> 00:30:13,440
as bad as they've been over the past month. Yeah,

687
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:15,640
I think this I think this line moved down makes

688
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:17,599
no sense to me. And maybe it's weather related, but

689
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:19,480
as I said, the wins supposed to be like ten

690
00:30:19,519 --> 00:30:21,200
to fifteen miles an hour. It doesn't look like it's

691
00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:22,519
anything crazy on Saturday night.

692
00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:26,119
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with you on that one. All right.

693
00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:29,480
Speaker 1: So we've got an Eagles up money line. We've got

694
00:30:29,559 --> 00:30:33,519
it over and the Bears and Green Bay. I'm just

695
00:30:33,599 --> 00:30:36,680
gonna keep it simple. You gotta anchor it to something.

696
00:30:37,119 --> 00:30:39,680
Give me the Rams on the money line. There we go,

697
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:44,160
Rams money line, Eagles money line, and the over there

698
00:30:44,279 --> 00:30:48,319
for Green Bay and Chicago. And that is your three

699
00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:52,559
your three leg parlay coming up for the NFL and

700
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:55,599
wild card weekend. Right, No need to get fancy here

701
00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:58,960
with these games this weekend. Just take the ones you like.

702
00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:01,680
And even Art had said, gonna be a lot of

703
00:31:01,759 --> 00:31:05,359
liability for the books in money line parlays with both

704
00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:07,000
the Eagles and the Rams.

705
00:31:07,079 --> 00:31:11,119
Speaker 2: It feels like Steve. But you know, hey, usually in

706
00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:12,000
the wild card.

707
00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:17,039
Speaker 1: Weekend, the chalk usually rains reigned supreme in most years.

708
00:31:17,039 --> 00:31:19,359
Speaker 2: So you know, you're a ten and a half point

709
00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:20,920
favorite for a reason.

710
00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 1: Aren't just even at this point in the Wildcard I

711
00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:25,000
don't think that happens by accident.

712
00:31:25,799 --> 00:31:27,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I you know, coming into this week, I always

713
00:31:28,039 --> 00:31:30,319
kind of make the lines before I look at them,

714
00:31:30,359 --> 00:31:32,440
and I'm thinking to myself, you know, like, how can

715
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:35,279
you not like the Rams in this game? Please keep

716
00:31:35,319 --> 00:31:38,319
in mind it's a revenge game of the Rams eight

717
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:41,480
there on November thirtieth, and it was a terrible spot form.

718
00:31:41,759 --> 00:31:43,279
It was a phony loss. They had a three to

719
00:31:43,319 --> 00:31:47,960
nothing turnover deficit. They outgained the Panthers and yardage. Carolina,

720
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:49,880
by the way, has been out gained in yards in

721
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:52,599
nine of the last ten games. They've only outgained one

722
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:55,920
of their last ten opponents. Statistically, they lost the must

723
00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:58,119
win game against Tampa, but then they still make the

724
00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:01,599
playoffs because the Falcons beat these Rams and beat the

725
00:32:01,599 --> 00:32:04,640
Saints in two meaningless games to finish it out, So

726
00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:06,960
I'm thinking, you know, like, how could you possibly take Carolina?

727
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:08,880
And then I see ten ten and a half and

728
00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:11,680
I'm like, well, I can't lay ten and a half

729
00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:13,599
on the road in a playoff game. So yeah, this

730
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:15,720
feels like a game where the Rams went by exactly ten.

731
00:32:15,759 --> 00:32:18,480
But I think the money line is a pretty safe option.

732
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:19,200
Speaker 2: I think. So.

733
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:21,559
Speaker 1: I think the books are going to get crushed a

734
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:25,079
little in those two games there between the Rams and

735
00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:29,680
the Eagle game. But does give us an opportunity here

736
00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:32,759
to talk a little business before we dive into some

737
00:32:32,799 --> 00:32:37,279
particular props and plays and angles that we're looking at

738
00:32:37,559 --> 00:32:41,359
this weekend in the wild card. So, Meryl, you know

739
00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:43,400
I've got to do it because you were such a

740
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:45,559
big fan of it. Yes, let me just throw that

741
00:32:45,599 --> 00:32:48,559
out for you so you can get the full experience

742
00:32:48,599 --> 00:32:50,200
here of it's time for business.

743
00:32:50,759 --> 00:32:50,960
Speaker 2: Love.

744
00:32:51,039 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 3: That looks like that was either a cruise ship or

745
00:32:53,359 --> 00:32:56,799
at NATO or the UN that's his living room.

746
00:32:56,920 --> 00:32:59,039
Speaker 2: Ah, he's got it.

747
00:32:59,079 --> 00:33:01,960
Speaker 3: Looks like he's about to enter the seventies after leaving

748
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:05,079
the United Nations. That's like a map behind and then

749
00:33:05,079 --> 00:33:07,079
there's a is that a foot to his left or

750
00:33:07,119 --> 00:33:09,119
another body is that someone's back turned?

751
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:10,319
Speaker 2: That is correct.

752
00:33:10,359 --> 00:33:13,400
Speaker 1: I wouldn't even know where to buy something like that. See,

753
00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:15,759
we're being completely honest, Like I wouldn't even know where

754
00:33:15,759 --> 00:33:16,440
to find that.

755
00:33:17,079 --> 00:33:19,359
Speaker 3: I'm pretty sure, I'm obviously I'm assuming this is photoshop.

756
00:33:19,359 --> 00:33:20,640
I'm pretty sure it's a women's body.

757
00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:25,400
Speaker 1: Oh no, no, no, no, no, that's the world, not photoshop, Meryl.

758
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:26,160
Speaker 2: But well done.

759
00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:27,799
Speaker 3: Is that a real picture?

760
00:33:27,839 --> 00:33:27,960
Speaker 1: Oh?

761
00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:31,119
Speaker 3: Yes, I thought it was his head on it, But

762
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:32,480
now that you gave me the full shot there, I

763
00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:33,920
was like, that actually looks pretty real.

764
00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 1: Yes, that is his Halloween party. Okay, there we go,

765
00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:43,559
sures Halloween. Yeah, Halloween like June, June the fifth. Yeah,

766
00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:46,960
like the actually Halloween in like July. That's live from

767
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:48,880
the hard Rock at the Poker tour.

768
00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:51,119
Speaker 3: He just sat yesterday.

769
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 1: All right, Meryll, tell us what you got rolling here

770
00:33:56,039 --> 00:33:57,920
at your page, locked and loaded?

771
00:33:58,359 --> 00:34:02,400
Speaker 2: NFL already, you got NBA? What do you got rolling? Yeah?

772
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:04,839
Speaker 3: So two advanced NFL best bets for this weekend, which

773
00:34:04,839 --> 00:34:06,319
we haven't given out here on the show. So two

774
00:34:06,319 --> 00:34:09,360
advanced client best bets for the NFL this weekend. Also

775
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:12,360
an NBA best bets not on National TV. And then

776
00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:15,519
a free college basketball play my top college basketball opinion

777
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tonight is free because the last cut, just a bit

778
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outside from making my best bet card goes up as

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a free play every day. So NBA Tonight free college

780
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play Advanced NFL. What a great time to check out

781
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my page Steve merrowwager Talk dot com. And while you're there,

782
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783
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784
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786
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789
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Speaker 2: Like that, Meryl, yep I do.

790
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:54,159
Speaker 1: I have three plays lockloaded, ready to roll for wild

791
00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:58,599
Card weekend. Also, we've got a couple of college basketball

792
00:34:58,639 --> 00:35:02,360
games tonight and one NBA game ready to roll here

793
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:07,559
and of course the pres also NHL, NBA and NFL

794
00:35:07,679 --> 00:35:10,559
ready to go. And you put us both together. It's

795
00:35:10,599 --> 00:35:12,800
the two for one deal right now that you can

796
00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:16,280
get with President I. You buy me or you buy

797
00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:19,239
the press. Ninety nine dollars will get you a seventy

798
00:35:19,639 --> 00:35:23,159
seven day all access pass all Sports. So you're getting

799
00:35:23,639 --> 00:35:26,599
both of our plays for seven days for just ninety

800
00:35:26,679 --> 00:35:29,199
nine dollars, no coupon. Need to just head over to

801
00:35:29,280 --> 00:35:33,440
our page at wager talk dot com. All right, Meryl,

802
00:35:33,639 --> 00:35:37,239
let's go. We'll dive in here two minutes on the

803
00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:40,960
clock all the way through. Just give us some thoughts

804
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:44,840
here on a NFL from a prop betting perspective or

805
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:47,159
even team total perspective.

806
00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:50,679
Speaker 2: What game do you think you can look at.

807
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:54,000
Speaker 1: Here that might have well, if nothing more points and

808
00:35:54,199 --> 00:35:56,719
maybe some opportunities in the prop betting market.

809
00:35:57,639 --> 00:35:59,639
Speaker 3: Well, let's start that first game tomorro on Saturday. You know,

810
00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:01,639
by the way, my lock of the century was that

811
00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:03,840
the Texans would have the four to thirty Saturday game.

812
00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:05,840
I got that wrong. They're playing the Monday night game

813
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:08,960
because there's a more undesirable team in the postseason this year,

814
00:36:09,320 --> 00:36:12,840
and that's the Carolina, the eight to nine Carolina Panthers.

815
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:16,000
So they stick them at four thirty Eastern on Saturday.

816
00:36:16,039 --> 00:36:18,599
It's always the Bengals or Texans. Now it's the Panthers

817
00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:21,400
because the Rams should blow them out. With that said, though,

818
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:23,800
you know I was looking through Mark Lawrence's numbers yesterday,

819
00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:25,639
and I mentioned this in my video as well. We

820
00:36:25,679 --> 00:36:27,920
all know home dogs have done extremely well in the playoffs.

821
00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:30,280
In fact, Mark has them at thirty five and fifteen

822
00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:33,920
against the spread seventy percent since nineteen eighty. Over forty

823
00:36:33,920 --> 00:36:36,599
five years, they've covered seventy percent. So that's another reason

824
00:36:36,599 --> 00:36:38,360
why I could see this game like the Rams winning

825
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:41,880
by exactly ten and the Panthers covering. The problem though,

826
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:44,159
is the Panthers offense is still not good. Bryce Young

827
00:36:44,199 --> 00:36:46,280
is still not good, their passing attack is still not good.

828
00:36:46,519 --> 00:36:49,039
So when they get behind, you just don't trust them

829
00:36:49,039 --> 00:36:51,119
to catch up. So if you're gonna play that early

830
00:36:51,159 --> 00:36:53,639
game at four thirty eastern, maybe a Panther team total

831
00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:57,000
under seventeen and a half. Yes, I would lean Panthers

832
00:36:57,000 --> 00:36:59,280
plus ten and a half, but I also would rather

833
00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:01,840
shorten it up when the game is still competitive. First

834
00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:03,599
half plus six and a half would have much rather

835
00:37:03,639 --> 00:37:05,920
have gotten a plus seven. But we're only getting plus

836
00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:07,800
six and a half. Or you can even look at

837
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:09,519
the first quarter line there. You know, as we've talked

838
00:37:09,559 --> 00:37:12,800
about these other games, teams come out conservative. Unfortunately it's

839
00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:15,280
just plus two and a half. So ten and a

840
00:37:15,320 --> 00:37:17,039
half is tempting, but six and a half two and

841
00:37:17,079 --> 00:37:19,079
a half first quarter, first half is probably the safer

842
00:37:19,119 --> 00:37:21,159
play with Carolina. Keep an eye on those, by the way.

843
00:37:21,199 --> 00:37:23,360
You might get a plus three first quarter with Carolina

844
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:25,679
or a plus seven first half. But I think the

845
00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:28,000
team total under seventeen and a half is a good

846
00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:30,559
little hedge if you do play the Panthers, because if

847
00:37:30,599 --> 00:37:32,519
it gets ugly, they probably not gonna score much down

848
00:37:32,559 --> 00:37:33,639
the stretch when they get behind.

849
00:37:34,239 --> 00:37:36,239
Speaker 2: I like that there, Meryl.

850
00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:39,519
Speaker 1: I got an interesting one too here, and it's going

851
00:37:39,559 --> 00:37:42,400
to be I can't believe you didn't know this, but

852
00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:47,880
it seems crazy, but the Bills have played twelve playoff

853
00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:52,039
games since twenty twenty. All twelve, Merril have either been

854
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:55,000
home in Buffalo or in Kansas City.

855
00:37:55,239 --> 00:37:55,519
Speaker 2: Wow.

856
00:37:55,599 --> 00:37:58,760
Speaker 1: So that is absolutely crazy when you think about it,

857
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:02,719
that they have since twenty twenty not made it any

858
00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:05,360
place else other than at home.

859
00:38:05,599 --> 00:38:07,440
Speaker 2: Or in Kid. That's my video, Joe.

860
00:38:07,639 --> 00:38:10,079
Speaker 3: You are saying, I'm gonna mentioning I'm recording the Sunday

861
00:38:10,079 --> 00:38:13,000
three pack this afternoon, So you're telling me the last

862
00:38:13,039 --> 00:38:15,559
twelve games have all been Kansas City or Buffalo.

863
00:38:15,800 --> 00:38:18,639
Speaker 1: All that's either at home in Orchard Park or on

864
00:38:18,679 --> 00:38:20,800
the road in Kansas City. Which does all be Josh

865
00:38:20,840 --> 00:38:23,599
Allen games, you think? Or is it before sent twenty twenty? Yeah,

866
00:38:23,679 --> 00:38:25,599
that's all twenty twenty, and that's all Josh.

867
00:38:25,320 --> 00:38:29,840
Speaker 3: Allen twenty twenty. Awesome. That's a great stet and buffalo.

868
00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:31,480
Speaker 2: By the way, Oh and we all know oh and three.

869
00:38:31,840 --> 00:38:36,480
Speaker 1: In Kansas City. But it's interesting here. I really like

870
00:38:36,559 --> 00:38:40,159
a prop in this weekend's game between them and Jacksonville.

871
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:43,400
And call me crazy, but I think Josh Allen's pass

872
00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:46,639
attempts which was thirty and a half, maybe thirty one

873
00:38:46,679 --> 00:38:49,320
and a half right now, I think that's gonna be

874
00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:54,039
a good play. Teams pass on Jacksonville at the fourth

875
00:38:54,119 --> 00:38:57,880
highest rate in the league year sixty eight percent of

876
00:38:58,039 --> 00:39:02,519
teams sixty eight percent of from teams are passing plays

877
00:39:02,519 --> 00:39:06,559
against Jacksonville because they have that whole pass funnel defense

878
00:39:06,599 --> 00:39:09,239
where they're very good against the run, but they're gonna

879
00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:10,280
let you take.

880
00:39:10,079 --> 00:39:11,320
Speaker 2: Everything over the middle.

881
00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 1: They're gonna let you dink and dunk all around the field,

882
00:39:14,280 --> 00:39:17,599
and teams have taken advantage of it. And nobody's gonna

883
00:39:17,599 --> 00:39:19,920
be better at that than Josh Allen.

884
00:39:20,000 --> 00:39:20,559
Speaker 2: Not to mention.

885
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:23,719
Speaker 1: I think the Jags could be playing from in front

886
00:39:23,800 --> 00:39:26,400
in this game, especially early, and if that's the case,

887
00:39:27,159 --> 00:39:29,559
then I think it's gonna be all about Josh Allen

888
00:39:29,639 --> 00:39:31,360
and his arm. I don't think it's gonna be about

889
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:34,760
the running game in this kind of conditions.

890
00:39:34,800 --> 00:39:36,719
Speaker 2: Here, what seventy degrees at kick?

891
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:40,000
Speaker 1: I think in Jacksonville, I think there's gonna be a

892
00:39:40,000 --> 00:39:42,159
lot of passing. I think Josh Allen, if he's gonna

893
00:39:42,199 --> 00:39:43,840
win that game, he's gonna win it with his arm.

894
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:48,239
I would anticipate a lot of passing attempts in that game.

895
00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:53,559
Speaker 2: Merrill with between Jacksonville and Buffalo. So give me Josh.

896
00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:56,320
Speaker 1: Allen's pass attempts up and over thirty one and a

897
00:39:56,360 --> 00:39:57,559
half here for that one.

898
00:39:58,400 --> 00:39:59,039
Speaker 2: Yeah, has to say.

899
00:39:59,039 --> 00:40:00,920
Speaker 3: One thing you think of run away is Jacksonville probably

900
00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:02,559
let in a lot of those games. The teams aren't

901
00:40:02,559 --> 00:40:04,079
going to throw more. But what I just said, if

902
00:40:04,119 --> 00:40:07,719
you think Buffalo might be playing from behind, what jumps

903
00:40:07,719 --> 00:40:10,360
out to me in this game? The real mismatch is

904
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:12,920
the rush defensive edge for jacksonvill Buffalo's got one of

905
00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:15,440
the worst run defenses in the league. Over five yards

906
00:40:15,440 --> 00:40:19,079
of carry allowed and Jacksonville's rushed for I think they've

907
00:40:19,079 --> 00:40:20,719
had a guy run for one hundred yards or more.

908
00:40:20,800 --> 00:40:22,800
They've run as a team in over half their games

909
00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:25,840
this year, so I think running back props for Jacksonville,

910
00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:28,280
however you want to cut it, rushing props individual at

911
00:40:28,320 --> 00:40:31,199
the end, you know, running props up and over make

912
00:40:31,239 --> 00:40:34,760
a lot of sense because Buffalo's run defense has definitely

913
00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:35,840
been their weakness this year.

914
00:40:36,119 --> 00:40:39,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, it certainly has, and I think Josh could and

915
00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:42,679
the way, let's face it, the way Buffalo doesn't play

916
00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:46,280
until the second half, they're likely playing from behind anyway,

917
00:40:46,360 --> 00:40:48,559
so it's likely going to be a Josh Allen show

918
00:40:48,599 --> 00:40:51,280
when it's all said and done. All right, let's talk

919
00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:56,400
some NBA here, better card across the board here tonight, merrill.

920
00:40:56,480 --> 00:40:57,679
Speaker 2: Let's start what a.

921
00:40:57,639 --> 00:41:00,639
Speaker 1: Couple of games here that we can look at, and

922
00:41:00,679 --> 00:41:01,760
it's gonna be interesting.

923
00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:04,000
Speaker 2: So let me see if I understand.

924
00:41:03,719 --> 00:41:07,719
Speaker 1: The Pelicans are a road favorite. May it makes sense? Ah,

925
00:41:07,840 --> 00:41:10,719
they're playing Washington. By the way, there will not be

926
00:41:11,679 --> 00:41:15,599
any new additions playing for the Wizards here tonight. Yeah,

927
00:41:15,880 --> 00:41:19,599
the Noah Trey ain't gonna be there tonight, nor will

928
00:41:19,639 --> 00:41:22,400
I ce J McCollum, by the way, I believe be

929
00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:26,440
there for Atlanta tonight. But the Pelicans, you know, quietly,

930
00:41:26,519 --> 00:41:29,280
and some of the Wizards, they've been they've been a

931
00:41:29,280 --> 00:41:31,960
pretty good atm machine covering spreads lately.

932
00:41:32,079 --> 00:41:35,880
Speaker 2: Two and a half in Washington. Is it a coin

933
00:41:35,920 --> 00:41:36,719
flip game to you?

934
00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:38,719
Speaker 1: And this because it feels like a coin flip game

935
00:41:38,760 --> 00:41:41,280
to me, But it also feels like we're getting two

936
00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:44,239
hundred and sixty points in this game. Yeah, I was

937
00:41:44,239 --> 00:41:45,960
just gonna set. I don't think we're getting much defense.

938
00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:48,079
The total open two thirty nine and a half, it's

939
00:41:48,159 --> 00:41:49,719
up to forty two and a half. So I think

940
00:41:49,760 --> 00:41:51,440
that is probably the best way to play it. Whenever

941
00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:54,679
there's uncertainty and a lack of maybe focus, I think

942
00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:57,000
that shows in the defensive side of the ball. And

943
00:41:57,159 --> 00:41:58,960
like you just said, I mean, are we really trusting

944
00:41:59,119 --> 00:41:59,760
either of these teams?

945
00:41:59,800 --> 00:42:00,239
Speaker 2: Is the favor?

946
00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:01,960
Speaker 3: But I don't necessarily want to play the dog here either.

947
00:42:02,000 --> 00:42:04,480
But the Pelicans have lost nine in a row and

948
00:42:04,559 --> 00:42:07,280
they've gone one and eight against the spread, and they've

949
00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:09,639
been an underdog in every one of those games, and

950
00:42:09,719 --> 00:42:11,559
they've still only covered once out of nine and they've

951
00:42:11,599 --> 00:42:13,599
lost all nine straight up, so now their favorite on

952
00:42:13,679 --> 00:42:17,440
the road. Like you said, can't trust that. But then again,

953
00:42:17,480 --> 00:42:19,239
the Wizards, while they've been a pretty good money maker

954
00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:21,639
here the last few weeks, a little bit of a

955
00:42:21,719 --> 00:42:23,800
disruption here with the trade and everything, which makes me

956
00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:25,760
uncertain how they're going to come out. I'd like the over.

957
00:42:25,840 --> 00:42:27,880
If I'm going to play this, I would definitely be

958
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:29,480
up and over two forty two. I think it'll be

959
00:42:29,519 --> 00:42:34,519
a playoff atmosphere. I play correction playground atmosphere. It's definitely

960
00:42:34,559 --> 00:42:39,199
not playoff atmosphere is low scoring. Playground atmosphere is street ball,

961
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:41,239
high scoring, no defense, and I think that's what we

962
00:42:41,360 --> 00:42:43,039
get tonight. By the way, the Wizards have been an

963
00:42:43,159 --> 00:42:46,239
interesting case study. They were probably as bad as any

964
00:42:46,239 --> 00:42:48,000
team I've seen in the NBA. They lost like, what

965
00:42:48,199 --> 00:42:50,280
was it like, fifteen of their first sixteen or whatever

966
00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:53,039
to start the season until late November, and we always

967
00:42:53,039 --> 00:42:55,159
talk about not catching that falling knife. When they started

968
00:42:55,199 --> 00:42:57,159
to kind of turn the corner. They've been, as you said,

969
00:42:57,559 --> 00:42:59,119
one of the best money makers in the month of

970
00:42:59,159 --> 00:43:01,880
December and early Anuary. So we'll see if this kind

971
00:43:01,880 --> 00:43:03,960
of resets everything. I have a feeling it might and

972
00:43:04,119 --> 00:43:06,159
I'd be careful with the Wizards over the next few weeks.

973
00:43:06,559 --> 00:43:09,599
Speaker 2: I would too, And one other game I'll throw out there.

974
00:43:10,039 --> 00:43:13,400
Speaker 1: Apparently on the thunder of hit a Wall, it was

975
00:43:13,440 --> 00:43:16,440
abound to happen at some point, Meryl. But usually if

976
00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:20,239
this was a month ago, this game tonight against Memphis,

977
00:43:20,360 --> 00:43:22,639
they would have been twelve point favorites. Twelve and a

978
00:43:22,679 --> 00:43:26,000
half point favorites here. Five and a half is what

979
00:43:26,159 --> 00:43:28,719
they are now, as they are barely five hundred. I

980
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:31,480
think over the last couple of weeks here what happened?

981
00:43:31,639 --> 00:43:33,880
Are all that basketball starting to catch up with them

982
00:43:33,880 --> 00:43:36,559
a little bit here? Yeah, it's so funny, Joe. This

983
00:43:36,639 --> 00:43:38,519
is another great example of what we're talking about. You know,

984
00:43:38,760 --> 00:43:40,760
the Wizards were as bad as anybody in history the

985
00:43:40,800 --> 00:43:43,320
first month. The thunder was as good as anybody in history.

986
00:43:43,320 --> 00:43:45,360
And I remember you and I were talking about this

987
00:43:45,440 --> 00:43:47,639
on a sports grid hit like three or four saturdays ago.

988
00:43:48,599 --> 00:43:51,199
You know, would they even lose again, we're having that discussion,

989
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:53,480
like would they lose more than three or four games

990
00:43:53,519 --> 00:43:54,039
all season?

991
00:43:54,800 --> 00:43:56,559
Speaker 3: And they're now thirty one and seven. In fact, I'd

992
00:43:56,599 --> 00:43:58,119
like to go back and figure out the exact Saturday

993
00:43:58,119 --> 00:44:00,719
it was probably two or three weeks ago. They've definitely

994
00:44:00,760 --> 00:44:03,320
been below five hundred since we've had that conversation, so

995
00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:07,239
I think we somewhat semi jinkst them there. But it

996
00:44:07,360 --> 00:44:09,880
just shows the ebb and flows of the basketball season.

997
00:44:10,639 --> 00:44:13,320
And you can't just kind of will these teams into

998
00:44:13,320 --> 00:44:16,639
fixing stuff. Because they were a fifteen point home favorite

999
00:44:16,679 --> 00:44:20,920
against Memphis back on December twenty second, and now after

1000
00:44:21,039 --> 00:44:24,400
losing as a ten point favorite against Phoenix fifteen point.

1001
00:44:24,559 --> 00:44:26,800
They didn't just lose as a fifteen point favorite against Charlotte,

1002
00:44:27,119 --> 00:44:29,280
they've lost outright by twenty seven, so that's like a

1003
00:44:29,440 --> 00:44:32,480
forty two point loss against the spread. And then all

1004
00:44:32,559 --> 00:44:34,719
they got back on track against Utah winning won twenty

1005
00:44:34,800 --> 00:44:37,639
nine to twenty five, is a nineteen point favorite. The

1006
00:44:37,679 --> 00:44:39,519
big thing is this has been the best defensive team

1007
00:44:39,519 --> 00:44:41,559
in the league the last two years. They've given up

1008
00:44:41,599 --> 00:44:43,880
two hundred and forty nine points the last two games.

1009
00:44:44,480 --> 00:44:47,280
They've given up triple digits each of the last three games.

1010
00:44:47,639 --> 00:44:49,440
And then you look at the injury report here tonight,

1011
00:44:50,119 --> 00:44:53,599
over half their lineup is out. Yes, so I'd be

1012
00:44:53,679 --> 00:44:55,960
really careful with them here. I don't even think they're

1013
00:44:55,960 --> 00:44:57,639
going to probably win this game. I don't. I mean,

1014
00:44:57,719 --> 00:45:00,519
unless something's changed. I mean the NBA were as of

1015
00:45:00,639 --> 00:45:05,320
thirty minutes ago is listing, you know, Shay out, listing,

1016
00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:08,920
whole Grim out, Jalen Williams out. I mean, what am

1017
00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:09,480
I missing here?

1018
00:45:09,559 --> 00:45:09,679
Speaker 2: Joe?

1019
00:45:09,719 --> 00:45:11,480
Speaker 3: Why are they why are they going from three and

1020
00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:13,800
a half to six? And it's like this information is

1021
00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:14,559
wrong or something.

1022
00:45:14,599 --> 00:45:17,039
Speaker 1: I don't know. That's very strang I just noticed that

1023
00:45:17,199 --> 00:45:19,400
as well, Meryll. That makes absolutely uh.

1024
00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:22,400
Speaker 3: This is the official NBA dot com report for one

1025
00:45:23,159 --> 00:45:27,320
Eastern so and they're they're listed is out. It's not questionable.

1026
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:29,239
They're all listed as out. So I don't know what

1027
00:45:29,360 --> 00:45:31,960
I'm missing here like there. I mean, I know John moreno,

1028
00:45:32,039 --> 00:45:34,440
like Memphis is missing guys too, but this is basically

1029
00:45:34,599 --> 00:45:35,880
a preseason game now.

1030
00:45:36,480 --> 00:45:38,239
Speaker 2: That's exactly what it feels like there.

1031
00:45:38,239 --> 00:45:40,480
Speaker 1: And if I'm not, I know, the report just came

1032
00:45:40,519 --> 00:45:44,800
out too that now Memphis is uh, it's official Memphis

1033
00:45:44,920 --> 00:45:47,760
is currently shopping John Morant for.

1034
00:45:48,079 --> 00:45:50,280
Speaker 3: He's listing is out on the report also, So yeah,

1035
00:45:50,320 --> 00:45:50,960
I agree with that.

1036
00:45:51,519 --> 00:45:54,199
Speaker 2: So I don't know, it makes no sense.

1037
00:45:54,599 --> 00:46:00,760
Speaker 3: Lo okse have though Hartenstein out, Gilchris out, whole Grim out, Cason,

1038
00:46:00,800 --> 00:46:03,119
Wallace Williams out.

1039
00:46:03,400 --> 00:46:07,039
Speaker 1: I mean SGA's Caruso's question. I mean that's it, SGA,

1040
00:46:07,199 --> 00:46:12,639
Hart and Stein Williams. That's crazy. Yeah, that's crazy. Jalen Williams,

1041
00:46:12,719 --> 00:46:17,039
ched Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, and SGA all have been ruled out,

1042
00:46:17,480 --> 00:46:19,639
and the only guy that's loved is Caruso is the

1043
00:46:19,719 --> 00:46:20,519
only one questionable.

1044
00:46:20,599 --> 00:46:21,760
Speaker 2: Everyone else is a mess.

1045
00:46:22,159 --> 00:46:24,599
Speaker 3: So I've start all day and now it's up to

1046
00:46:24,679 --> 00:46:27,760
six in the last thirty minutes. I don't Yeah, it's

1047
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:29,559
like that's one of those lines like that game should

1048
00:46:29,559 --> 00:46:31,119
be a pick them because I don't have an opinion

1049
00:46:31,159 --> 00:46:32,880
either way. It's like I just would play the dog.

1050
00:46:33,119 --> 00:46:33,639
Speaker 2: I agree.

1051
00:46:34,039 --> 00:46:35,880
Speaker 3: I mean you can figure out. Okayc wants to get

1052
00:46:35,920 --> 00:46:37,840
back on track, but do they have even the I mean,

1053
00:46:37,880 --> 00:46:39,400
how good are their backups? I mean this is like

1054
00:46:39,480 --> 00:46:41,480
the backups of the backups at this point.

1055
00:46:41,679 --> 00:46:46,199
Speaker 2: Yeah, this interesting not good. That is absolutely not good.

1056
00:46:46,920 --> 00:46:49,280
We do have, of course, to calm before the storm.

1057
00:46:49,639 --> 00:46:52,079
Speaker 1: Meryl is what we like to call it now that

1058
00:46:52,199 --> 00:46:56,360
the calendar has turned in college basketball, because well we

1059
00:46:56,480 --> 00:47:00,760
got what tomorrow I believe last one hundred and forty

1060
00:47:00,880 --> 00:47:05,159
nine games tomorrow, nearly three hundred teams will be on

1061
00:47:05,280 --> 00:47:08,679
the court tomorrow in college basketball, but we only got

1062
00:47:08,760 --> 00:47:10,960
what twenty eight to twenty nine teams on the floor

1063
00:47:11,039 --> 00:47:13,679
here tonight. Tip I believe do we have an early

1064
00:47:14,159 --> 00:47:17,480
game today? I don't think we did. First game is

1065
00:47:17,519 --> 00:47:22,519
right around six o'clock Miami of Ohio undefeated taking on

1066
00:47:22,840 --> 00:47:26,440
Toledo in a game here that the total keeps getting

1067
00:47:26,480 --> 00:47:29,440
bet up like people know exactly what the final score

1068
00:47:29,559 --> 00:47:31,679
is going to be there. But at kudos to Miami

1069
00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:35,199
of Ohio hitting what like fifty from three on the

1070
00:47:35,400 --> 00:47:38,519
seats in here. Nobody can seem to beat them here.

1071
00:47:38,960 --> 00:47:41,960
They're on the road, but that line flipped. You get

1072
00:47:42,000 --> 00:47:45,039
an undefeated Miami of Ohio and they opened up as

1073
00:47:45,079 --> 00:47:48,000
a favorite. Now they're a dog here on the road

1074
00:47:48,039 --> 00:47:51,199
against Toledo. Who'd have thunk it, little matched might be

1075
00:47:51,320 --> 00:47:52,800
the best game on a card here tonight?

1076
00:47:54,440 --> 00:47:54,639
Speaker 2: Yeah?

1077
00:47:54,719 --> 00:47:56,480
Speaker 3: I think you know. It is incredible they're after that

1078
00:47:56,519 --> 00:47:59,320
what is a sixteen and those starts. Yeah, but now

1079
00:47:59,400 --> 00:48:01,519
it's conference time and we see these teams know each

1080
00:48:01,559 --> 00:48:03,639
other well. We often see teams come back down to earth.

1081
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:05,760
The tempo should be fast. I do agree with the

1082
00:48:05,840 --> 00:48:08,639
over in this game Both teams play extremely fast, to

1083
00:48:08,760 --> 00:48:10,840
the fastest teams in the conference for sure. Even in

1084
00:48:10,920 --> 00:48:14,360
the nation. Toledo a much weaker defensive team, Miami of

1085
00:48:14,400 --> 00:48:17,559
IOA holds a huge offensive edge. What does concern you

1086
00:48:17,599 --> 00:48:19,880
though a bit as we often see teams struggle offensively

1087
00:48:19,920 --> 00:48:22,599
on the road. So if this game was in Miami

1088
00:48:22,639 --> 00:48:26,039
of Ohiowa and love the over a little bit lukewarm

1089
00:48:26,119 --> 00:48:28,440
just because it's a road game, but still up and

1090
00:48:28,519 --> 00:48:30,480
over one sixty seven be the only way I play it.

1091
00:48:30,840 --> 00:48:32,599
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you on that one.

1092
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:36,239
Speaker 1: And a little late night USC taking on Minnesota. USC

1093
00:48:36,440 --> 00:48:38,920
lost its best player and it's just not it has

1094
00:48:39,039 --> 00:48:42,239
not been good and Minnesota laying it's been all Minnesota

1095
00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:44,840
money by the way, opened up minus one and now

1096
00:48:44,960 --> 00:48:49,119
Minnesota laying three and a half four across the board.

1097
00:48:49,480 --> 00:48:54,000
And Minnesota is actually halfway decent team this year. Nothing crazy,

1098
00:48:54,119 --> 00:48:57,159
but SC is going through it right now. It's a

1099
00:48:57,400 --> 00:49:00,239
new era there for SC and it's not all to

1100
00:49:00,280 --> 00:49:04,920
a great tart right now in college basketball for them.

1101
00:49:05,639 --> 00:49:07,719
I would feel like I would either lay it or

1102
00:49:07,880 --> 00:49:09,599
just pass here at this point because I don't think

1103
00:49:09,639 --> 00:49:12,320
we can trust that C on the road against Minnesota.

1104
00:49:13,239 --> 00:49:15,639
Speaker 3: Yeah, USC hasn't had Rodney Rice is probably the best

1105
00:49:15,679 --> 00:49:19,199
player since like late late November. I think he's missed

1106
00:49:19,239 --> 00:49:22,519
now like eight straight games. They lost to Washington, but

1107
00:49:22,559 --> 00:49:24,960
they won five of the other six games without him

1108
00:49:25,000 --> 00:49:28,880
until that Michigan trip last week into Monday, Saturday, and Monday.

1109
00:49:28,920 --> 00:49:30,719
They lost by thirty against Michigan, who I have as

1110
00:49:30,760 --> 00:49:32,880
the best team in the country, and then they lost

1111
00:49:32,920 --> 00:49:35,000
by twenty nine against Michigan State. But I also mentioned

1112
00:49:35,039 --> 00:49:37,599
Michigan State on Monday's wager Talk today because Michigan State

1113
00:49:37,719 --> 00:49:39,920
was coming off a loss. So I'm not going to

1114
00:49:40,000 --> 00:49:42,639
overreact too much of those two USC losses. I think

1115
00:49:42,639 --> 00:49:44,719
they might actually set up some value for us here

1116
00:49:45,239 --> 00:49:48,119
in the near future. The problem is it's another tough

1117
00:49:48,199 --> 00:49:51,639
Big Ten game in Minnesota. And keep in mind Conference

1118
00:49:51,719 --> 00:49:53,599
teams know each other well. USC is not used to

1119
00:49:53,679 --> 00:49:55,880
playing at Michigan at Michigan State, and Minnesota is a

1120
00:49:55,960 --> 00:49:58,079
bizarre court, as you know, Joe, where I think it's

1121
00:49:58,079 --> 00:50:00,920
still the same where the big benches are below core

1122
00:50:01,079 --> 00:50:03,000
level like Vanderbilts, you know, and it's just a very

1123
00:50:03,079 --> 00:50:05,639
it's like a bar, and it's just a weird arena.

1124
00:50:06,519 --> 00:50:08,800
So be careful tonight, but they are back at home

1125
00:50:08,840 --> 00:50:13,719
against Maryland next Tuesday. USC is yep, and that's a

1126
00:50:13,760 --> 00:50:16,320
team they're better than. So I almost kind of hope

1127
00:50:16,440 --> 00:50:18,519
USC gets blown out again to be honest, tonight, and

1128
00:50:18,559 --> 00:50:20,119
then we sets up a good bounce back play for

1129
00:50:20,239 --> 00:50:21,920
US Tuesday, maybe against Maryland.

1130
00:50:21,880 --> 00:50:23,760
Speaker 2: Like that in a big, big way there.

1131
00:50:23,920 --> 00:50:26,719
Speaker 1: So now you got a guy little college basketball NBA

1132
00:50:26,880 --> 00:50:29,800
action tonight, a couple of different looks in the NFL

1133
00:50:29,920 --> 00:50:34,599
Wildcard weekend, plus of course the college football semifinal tonight

1134
00:50:34,800 --> 00:50:38,800
round two as you get Oregon and Indiana.

1135
00:50:38,440 --> 00:50:40,840
Speaker 2: For the right to come to Miami and take on

1136
00:50:41,800 --> 00:50:44,000
the U. So a lot of stuff going on there.

1137
00:50:44,079 --> 00:50:47,320
Speaker 1: And Meryl, like you said, you're lockloaded NFL as well

1138
00:50:47,400 --> 00:50:50,159
as NBA here tonight heading into the weekend.

1139
00:50:51,320 --> 00:50:53,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, we got an NBA Best Bet Friday, two advanced

1140
00:50:53,559 --> 00:50:55,639
NFL plays for this week. It actually I'm sorry three.

1141
00:50:55,679 --> 00:50:57,679
I loaded another one today, So we have three advanced

1142
00:50:57,719 --> 00:51:00,639
NFL plays now up and then also a free college

1143
00:51:00,679 --> 00:51:02,400
basketball play which we did not talk about here on

1144
00:51:02,440 --> 00:51:04,519
the show. Go get my top college basketball opinion to

1145
00:51:04,599 --> 00:51:07,559
night free on my page. Steve Merrill Wager Talk dot Com,

1146
00:51:07,840 --> 00:51:12,760
WT dot Buzz slash sm and don't forget NFL Playoff video.

1147
00:51:12,760 --> 00:51:15,639
The doubleheader for Saturday is up right now. I'm gonna

1148
00:51:15,679 --> 00:51:17,639
do all three Sunday games and I also have the

1149
00:51:17,679 --> 00:51:20,159
Monday night game. So click subscribe click the bell here

1150
00:51:20,199 --> 00:51:22,519
on wager Talk TV, and you will not miss out

1151
00:51:22,519 --> 00:51:24,960
because I'm doing every NFL postseason game free through the

1152
00:51:25,000 --> 00:51:27,559
Super Bowl for you here. Click that subscribe and hey,

1153
00:51:27,559 --> 00:51:30,039
a thumbs up like for this show and all the videos.

1154
00:51:30,119 --> 00:51:32,280
It takes two seconds to click the thumbs up like.

1155
00:51:33,039 --> 00:51:34,840
And the more thumbs up likes, the more shows and

1156
00:51:34,960 --> 00:51:36,840
videos Joe and I both do. It's that simple, and

1157
00:51:36,960 --> 00:51:39,519
comment belowp We read the comments, we reply back and

1158
00:51:40,159 --> 00:51:43,679
encourage the pres to do well in this poker tournament.

1159
00:51:44,199 --> 00:51:46,480
Joe is hoping he does extremely well. Yes, and they

1160
00:51:46,480 --> 00:51:47,519
won't have time to catch up for.

1161
00:51:47,559 --> 00:51:50,440
Speaker 1: Dinner exactly so this way, he won't call me, you know,

1162
00:51:50,599 --> 00:51:52,400
I'll just tell him a sign for a business press.

1163
00:51:52,480 --> 00:51:54,960
I don't know what to tell you, man, Merrill. Always

1164
00:51:55,039 --> 00:51:57,280
a good time, my man. We'll see you, of course

1165
00:51:58,039 --> 00:52:02,280
throughout the week here a pres hopefully well likely we'll

1166
00:52:02,360 --> 00:52:05,639
be back on Monday, because he certainly won't be playing

1167
00:52:05,679 --> 00:52:09,119
in a poker tournament the way it sounds, but appreciate

1168
00:52:09,159 --> 00:52:12,119
it as always, guys, best of luck, hit the light button,

1169
00:52:12,519 --> 00:52:15,239
crush it this weekend. We'll see again on Monday for

1170
00:52:15,400 --> 00:52:18,000
the best betting show ever enjoyed.