1 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:31,079 Speaker 1: Now look at that. 2 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:39,759 Speaker 2: Here we are gathered around on this Tuesday. Today is 3 00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:43,399 the fifth day of August, year of our Lord, twenty 4 00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:46,880 twenty five. My name is Tom Sullivan. We've got a 5 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:50,079 lot to talk about today. We've got the President was 6 00:00:51,119 --> 00:00:54,000 giving kind of an open ended interview today to the 7 00:00:54,039 --> 00:00:57,679 folks over at CNBC. We've got a number of things 8 00:00:57,719 --> 00:01:02,359 about what's on the table with the President. We've got 9 00:01:02,799 --> 00:01:07,079 an update on China and what going on with China 10 00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:12,519 and trade. The Epstein story, No, won't, it won't go away. 11 00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:16,799 I know Congress is gone for the month, but they're 12 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:20,760 still issuing subpoenas and things like that. You won't believe 13 00:01:21,439 --> 00:01:26,519 who is on the list of the subpoenas issued by 14 00:01:26,599 --> 00:01:29,879 the House Oversight Committee. And by the way, even though 15 00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:35,519 James Comer runs the Oversight Committee, the subpoenas were pushed 16 00:01:35,719 --> 00:01:39,879 by the Democrats. They think they're going to be oh, yeah, 17 00:01:39,920 --> 00:01:44,239 they're going to get Donald Trump and his relationship with Epstein, 18 00:01:44,359 --> 00:01:47,200 and it's going to be all terrible, that's what they're thinking. 19 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:50,239 And yet the Republicans have been doing this because they 20 00:01:50,519 --> 00:01:53,799 want to find out who the Democrats were that were 21 00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:57,439 involved with Epstein. So where do you want to start today, 22 00:01:57,439 --> 00:02:00,200 boys and girls. Well, since I brought it up up 23 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:04,359 the House Oversight Committee, this is the one James Comer 24 00:02:05,239 --> 00:02:09,400 is in charge of and is controlled by Republicans. But 25 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:14,039 it was the Democrats who pushed to move the subpoenas 26 00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:18,240 from the to the Justice Department for the files on Epstein. 27 00:02:18,360 --> 00:02:23,719 So the House Oversight is going to the DOJ in 28 00:02:23,800 --> 00:02:28,840 saying turn over the files. So the Democrats pushed it. 29 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:33,680 They were joined by some Republicans and basically they got 30 00:02:33,719 --> 00:02:38,039 this subpoena to go out there the people that they 31 00:02:38,159 --> 00:02:43,639 have subpoenaed. Again, this is not a request, this is 32 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:48,560 not voluntary, This is a House subpoena. The list is 33 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:54,159 former President Bill Clinton, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, 34 00:02:54,599 --> 00:02:59,520 former Attorney General Merrick Garland, former Attorney General Bill Barr, 35 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:06,560 former Attorney General Jeff Sessions, Attorney General Loretta Lynch, former 36 00:03:06,599 --> 00:03:14,639 Attorney General Eric Holder, former Attorney General Alberto Gonzalez, former 37 00:03:14,759 --> 00:03:20,759 FBI director James Comy, and former FBI Director Robert Mueller. 38 00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:23,599 I don't know how he's doing. It didn't look like 39 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:26,520 he was healthy when he did the molar report. Well, 40 00:03:26,879 --> 00:03:30,280 so that's where that goes. Like I said, they're not 41 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:33,560 in session, but these things have been put together by 42 00:03:33,599 --> 00:03:36,520 staff and have been sent over to the DOJ. So 43 00:03:36,759 --> 00:03:41,879 after we get Congress back to work in September, these 44 00:03:41,919 --> 00:03:48,560 Oversight Committee hearings will commence and we'll see exactly how 45 00:03:48,639 --> 00:03:49,159 this works. 46 00:03:49,159 --> 00:03:51,319 Speaker 1: But what they're looking for are the. 47 00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:56,280 Speaker 2: Files about sex trafficking part of the congressional probe that 48 00:03:56,439 --> 00:04:00,360 they believe, the Democrats believe show links to President Trump. 49 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:07,000 Republicans think it shows links to former Democrat executives. It's 50 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:10,360 probably a number of names on there that are should 51 00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:15,680 be prosecuted if they get there. And there's a number 52 00:04:15,719 --> 00:04:19,360 of names on this list that just because they know 53 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:24,199 Epstein or went to Epstein's house or to his island 54 00:04:24,319 --> 00:04:29,000 or flew on his plane, doesn't buy in large convict 55 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:32,519 the person. So it's just an update for you about 56 00:04:32,560 --> 00:04:36,160 where all of this is going. So they got They've 57 00:04:36,199 --> 00:04:38,759 got Yeah, the Clintons, both of them are on this 58 00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:43,920 particular list. Committee actions show even when the stat when 59 00:04:43,959 --> 00:04:47,199 the lawmakers are away, the staff is still working on 60 00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:51,399 getting this, uh this done, and the Epstein story in 61 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:58,720 Washington has not died down. Obviously, Speaking of investigations, Russia 62 00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:04,600 Gate is going wrong. And to explain exactly what's going 63 00:05:04,759 --> 00:05:10,319 on with these investigations going back to the Obama years. 64 00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:16,800 Trey Goudi, former congressman, former prosecutor. He explains what's the 65 00:05:16,959 --> 00:05:17,959 latest with all of this. 66 00:05:19,199 --> 00:05:22,160 Speaker 3: Well, it started with Hillary Clinton's email, and they needed 67 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:26,360 a distraction of diversion, so they concocted this idea that 68 00:05:26,399 --> 00:05:29,879 Trump was colluding with Russia. I mean, that happens in politics. 69 00:05:29,879 --> 00:05:32,879 What's different here is the Clinton campaign was acting in 70 00:05:32,959 --> 00:05:38,600 concert with the CIA and the FBI and perhaps Barack Obama. 71 00:05:38,800 --> 00:05:41,040 So you have all these groups that we give immense 72 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:45,079 power to that we're actively trying to help one political 73 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:48,319 candidate while hurting the other. And then when that failed, 74 00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:51,120 they put a cloud over the Yellow one's presidency. I 75 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:56,000 mean he lost essentially his first tournament office. So that's 76 00:05:56,040 --> 00:06:00,160 the politics of it. The legality of it is what's 77 00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:03,519 the very criminal conspiracy, and the only way to determine 78 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:08,240 that is to investigate it using a grand jury. Look, Congress, 79 00:06:08,439 --> 00:06:11,160 they can send subpoenas and they get turned into paper 80 00:06:11,199 --> 00:06:13,879 airplanes and thrown back at you. That's not true. With 81 00:06:13,959 --> 00:06:16,879 grand jury subpoenas, you have to comply with it. They 82 00:06:16,879 --> 00:06:20,800 can make witnesses come and testify, or invocal privilege. They 83 00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:23,399 can go you fill in the blank kind of documents, 84 00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:27,399 phone records, text records, bank records. They don't have to 85 00:06:27,439 --> 00:06:30,040 ask for it, they go get it. So it is 86 00:06:30,079 --> 00:06:34,560 a powerful investigative tool. Whether or not there's a statue 87 00:06:34,639 --> 00:06:38,439 that fits within the Statute of Limitations remains to be seen. 88 00:06:38,560 --> 00:06:41,040 Speaker 2: That's one of the big questions is not only are 89 00:06:41,079 --> 00:06:46,160 these investigations, whether it's Russiagate or Epstein, they're going back 90 00:06:46,279 --> 00:06:50,199 years and are they going to just drag this out, 91 00:06:50,319 --> 00:06:52,920 install it out for another three and a half years 92 00:06:53,800 --> 00:06:56,600 and we never get any answers from it. But that 93 00:06:56,759 --> 00:06:59,879 is where the focus is on a number of people 94 00:07:00,079 --> 00:07:08,800 in DC. So Statute of limitations. Remember Obama is exempt 95 00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:12,720 because he has immunity because he was president. The other 96 00:07:12,839 --> 00:07:17,519 part of it, though, the Brennan's and Clappers and all 97 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:22,040 that crowd, Susan Rice, they may have liability if they 98 00:07:22,079 --> 00:07:27,199 can show that they kept the cover up going within 99 00:07:27,279 --> 00:07:30,959 the last I believe it's four years back to Trey 100 00:07:31,040 --> 00:07:32,680 Goudia for him to explain. 101 00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:35,199 Speaker 3: So let's imagine that you and I come up with 102 00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:38,920 a three seventy one conspiracy to defraud the United States. 103 00:07:39,279 --> 00:07:45,120 Can we find an act within the window within the 104 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:48,439 statute of limitations. Can we find an act that was 105 00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:51,480 in furtherance of that conspiracy. You can argue that efforts 106 00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:55,120 to conceal, efforts to lie, but we have to find 107 00:07:55,120 --> 00:07:58,439 that act within the Statute of limitations, and then you 108 00:07:58,439 --> 00:08:02,000 can bootstrap back and include things that happened even outside 109 00:08:02,040 --> 00:08:05,560 of the Statute of limitations. It is true a grand jury, 110 00:08:05,560 --> 00:08:08,319 a prosecutor can indict him Sandwick. But what is not 111 00:08:08,480 --> 00:08:12,399 true is you can't convict him. So getting an indictment, 112 00:08:12,680 --> 00:08:15,639 arresting someone is of no consequence if you can't get 113 00:08:15,680 --> 00:08:19,839 a conviction. And prosecutors know that. So the standard for 114 00:08:19,959 --> 00:08:23,639 charging someone is much lower than the standard for convicting. 115 00:08:24,079 --> 00:08:27,600 So DOJ an indictment is not a win. A conviction 116 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:28,399 is a win. 117 00:08:28,879 --> 00:08:34,080 Speaker 2: Then another investigation is Jack Smith, who was the prosecutor 118 00:08:34,679 --> 00:08:37,679 on the four cases, going after three of the four cases, 119 00:08:37,720 --> 00:08:42,519 going after Donald Trump before he was re elected and 120 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:47,039 going after him for federal law violations. And so now 121 00:08:47,080 --> 00:08:51,159 the investigation has turned. DOJ is looking at a special 122 00:08:52,039 --> 00:08:57,639 council to investigate the special council of Jack Smith. Here's 123 00:08:57,679 --> 00:09:01,240 Tom Cotton, who's the head of the Intel Committee in 124 00:09:01,279 --> 00:09:05,399 the Senate, talking about the investigation of Jack Smith. 125 00:09:06,519 --> 00:09:09,519 Speaker 4: Anybody with two eyes to see could say that he 126 00:09:09,600 --> 00:09:11,919 was simply racing the clock to try to get these 127 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:15,200 cases to a jury in Washington, d c. To convict 128 00:09:15,200 --> 00:09:18,200 Donald Trump and imprison him before the American people could 129 00:09:18,200 --> 00:09:22,080 elect him. There's no logical explanation for those decisions other 130 00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:25,480 than a desire to rush these cases through the system. 131 00:09:25,639 --> 00:09:28,519 Jack Smith even acknowledged that in his final result, that 132 00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:31,120 he was driven in no small part by trying to 133 00:09:31,159 --> 00:09:33,320 reach a verdict before the election. 134 00:09:33,919 --> 00:09:38,039 Speaker 2: So Jack Smith was doing an old investigation on Donald Trump, 135 00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:41,720 and now the DOJ is doing an old investigation on 136 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:47,080 Jack Smith and on Russia Gate. Trey Goudie reps in them. 137 00:09:47,480 --> 00:09:47,679 Speaker 5: Yeah. 138 00:09:47,759 --> 00:09:49,759 Speaker 3: Well, I mean, first of all, Tom Cotton is not 139 00:09:49,919 --> 00:09:53,600 known for some right wing maga conspiracy theorists. I mean, 140 00:09:53,639 --> 00:09:55,840 he's a pretty measured guy, so for him to make 141 00:09:55,879 --> 00:09:59,600 a referral the allegation is that Jack Smith, as a 142 00:09:59,639 --> 00:10:03,799 federal prosecutor, engaged in political activity to benefit a candidate 143 00:10:04,159 --> 00:10:07,919 by trying to rush through these indictments and prosecutions. Now, 144 00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:11,360 Jack Smith's response will be because I can't prosecute a 145 00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:15,279 sitting president. Of course, I was moving faster. Tom Cotton's 146 00:10:15,320 --> 00:10:18,519 response back would be, well, then why didn't you start sooner? 147 00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:22,159 Why did you do this during an election year and 148 00:10:22,320 --> 00:10:25,559 move at break neck speed, faster than you move against 149 00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:27,080 carjackers and kidnappers. 150 00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:29,679 Speaker 2: It's kind of where you need a scorecard to keep 151 00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:32,039 track of all the investigations, because these are not about 152 00:10:32,120 --> 00:10:35,919 investigations of some crime that took place last week. These 153 00:10:35,919 --> 00:10:39,480 are all going back years, and whether it was Jack 154 00:10:39,519 --> 00:10:43,240 Smith or whether it is Tom Cotton, or whether it 155 00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:47,159 is the House Oversight Committee, they're trying to get to 156 00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:49,879 the bottom of all of this, and I maybe it 157 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:55,840 will put a pall on future members of Congress or 158 00:10:55,840 --> 00:10:59,639 current members of Congress from going on wild goose chases 159 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:04,000 to use the justice system to even the score politically 160 00:11:05,039 --> 00:11:09,159 or to keep a candidate from having a fair shot 161 00:11:09,279 --> 00:11:13,080 at being elected. And speaking of those people, there's nothing 162 00:11:13,240 --> 00:11:17,679 new to report to you about the Texas Democrats that 163 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:20,480 have left the state. Most of them are in Chicago 164 00:11:20,639 --> 00:11:26,759 somewhere in New York, but it is they're talking about 165 00:11:26,799 --> 00:11:30,600 how this is war and they think this is the 166 00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:32,759 most important thing going on in the whole wide world 167 00:11:32,759 --> 00:11:36,720 because it does affect them. But for you and me, 168 00:11:37,960 --> 00:11:41,159 don't you think they're working on anything to benefit you. 169 00:11:41,759 --> 00:11:46,559 They are working on preserving their backside. That's what they're doing. 170 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:50,120 They're afraid that they will lose their jobs and they're 171 00:11:50,120 --> 00:11:53,639 not going to do what. I understand the political fight 172 00:11:53,759 --> 00:11:57,679 going back and forth between Democrats and Republicans. But to 173 00:11:57,799 --> 00:12:01,080 leave the state. What's so bizarre. Two things that are 174 00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:04,159 bizarre about this one is they went to Illinois, which 175 00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:08,240 if you look at the congressional district map of the 176 00:12:08,279 --> 00:12:13,960 state of Illinois, the congressional districts are little wiggly lines 177 00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:20,360 drawn so weirdly because of jerry mandarin. That's what they 178 00:12:20,399 --> 00:12:24,519 did to get more Democrats to be elected in Illinois, 179 00:12:24,919 --> 00:12:28,879 other than just a plain old map with square lines 180 00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:33,240 the other part behind it. So they went to the 181 00:12:33,279 --> 00:12:39,200 state that is a classic a gerrymander state to complain 182 00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:43,519 about the state of Texas wants to do jerrymandering. The 183 00:12:43,559 --> 00:12:47,799 difference with Texas, which is different than most states. We 184 00:12:47,919 --> 00:12:53,440 have all been witness witnesses to the rapid growth of 185 00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:59,200 population and businesses moving to Texas. They don't have people 186 00:12:59,240 --> 00:13:03,960 moving out, have mass in migration going, and so as 187 00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:09,960 a result, even though the redistricting is supposed to take 188 00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:14,320 place every ten years based upon the census every ten years, 189 00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:19,840 they're doing a mid census redistricting because the state of 190 00:13:19,919 --> 00:13:25,159 Texas has changed dramatically the number of people in Texas. 191 00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:27,840 I still think they should wait for the every ten 192 00:13:27,919 --> 00:13:31,960 years and keep that tradition going, but they're not going 193 00:13:32,039 --> 00:13:34,200 to do it. And they do have an argument about 194 00:13:34,240 --> 00:13:36,159 the fact that a lot of people have moved to 195 00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:39,480 Texas and their politics they brought with them to Texas 196 00:13:39,840 --> 00:13:44,440 from other states. The other strange part about all of 197 00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:48,480 this is California went through this a number of times 198 00:13:48,879 --> 00:13:52,360 and they kept redrawing whichever party was in power. And 199 00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:56,519 this goes back twenty years when they're actually were sometimes 200 00:13:56,519 --> 00:14:01,240 some Republicans elected. But what they have been able to 201 00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:06,000 do is get the map drawn in California to where 202 00:14:06,080 --> 00:14:11,600 the Democrats control everything. There are a handful of Republican 203 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:17,279 congress people in California, but most of most everything is Democrat. 204 00:14:17,360 --> 00:14:21,039 The governor is the legislature is controlled both houses by 205 00:14:21,039 --> 00:14:25,519 the Democrats. It's not good when you don't have a 206 00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:29,919 competing chance by both parties. You need balance in politics 207 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:33,080 rather than have one party rule. Look at what they've 208 00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:37,320 done to California. It's destroyed. Same with Illinois, same with 209 00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:41,840 New York. One party rule. So as much as it's 210 00:14:41,879 --> 00:14:45,159 interesting that Texas wants to do this, I understand why 211 00:14:45,200 --> 00:14:47,799 they want to do it, I'm not so sure it's 212 00:14:47,919 --> 00:14:51,840 good for the overall political system. And the other part 213 00:14:51,919 --> 00:14:56,480 about California when they went they finally the people there 214 00:14:56,720 --> 00:15:01,360 finally put a proposition which they can do in California 215 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:04,720 on the ballot and the people voted for it, which said, 216 00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:09,480 we are not going to let you political parties draw 217 00:15:09,559 --> 00:15:14,399 the congressional districts. No you're not. We're taking it away 218 00:15:14,399 --> 00:15:18,440 from you, and we're going to have an independent panel, 219 00:15:18,559 --> 00:15:22,440 I believe of judges, which you're never going to get 220 00:15:22,480 --> 00:15:25,759 a perfect panel because everybody has a bias to the 221 00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:28,759 left or to the right. But that's what they have 222 00:15:28,919 --> 00:15:32,919 in California now is every ten years they have this 223 00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:38,639 independent panel that will draw the legislative districts congressional districts 224 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:43,840 and not let the politicians do it. So that's what 225 00:15:43,879 --> 00:15:47,919 they want to change, and Gavin Newsom is talking to 226 00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:51,360 the legislature about putting it on the ballot this November 227 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:55,200 for the people of California to undo that rule and 228 00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:58,559 give them the power once again to draw the congressional districts. 229 00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:02,919 I hope the people have California, don't give it back 230 00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:11,320 to them to draw the lines. China. What's going on 231 00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:16,919 in China. They are cracking the whip in China. All 232 00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:22,679 of the public employees in China have been told now 233 00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:26,960 that they are not allowed to travel outside of China. 234 00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:34,279 Gordon Chang has a comment about that and about the 235 00:16:34,320 --> 00:16:40,279 fact that President she is facing some real political cliffs 236 00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:42,919 coming up in this fall. Here's Gordon Chang. 237 00:16:43,519 --> 00:16:46,399 Speaker 6: I think that they're just paranoia, but also they know 238 00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:49,120 that they're in trouble. You know, when someone travels abroad, 239 00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:52,559 they bring money out, and China has a cash problem. 240 00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:55,120 The other thing is that I think that there's a 241 00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:58,799 general concern that people in Beijing see that if people 242 00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:01,480 travel abroad, Chinese travel abroad, they're going to get a 243 00:17:01,639 --> 00:17:04,680 very different view of the world than recent Chinese propaganda. 244 00:17:04,839 --> 00:17:07,960 The gap between what China says about itself and reality 245 00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:10,839 is growing, and we've seen that over the last couple months. 246 00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:12,440 I think Beijing is. 247 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:13,559 Speaker 1: Really really worried. 248 00:17:14,319 --> 00:17:16,680 Speaker 6: Yeah, he certainly has problems, and we're going to know 249 00:17:16,839 --> 00:17:19,759 by the end of October how true these rumors are. 250 00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:22,599 There's two big events between now and then. One of 251 00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:25,839 them is that there has traditionally been senior Chinese leaders 252 00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:30,480 meet at a seaside resort Betaha, and they often hammer 253 00:17:30,559 --> 00:17:33,720 out really important leadership decisions. The second thing is the 254 00:17:33,759 --> 00:17:37,319 Communist Party is holding its fourth Plan in October. That's 255 00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:39,920 going to deal with a lot of economic issues. We're 256 00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:42,880 going to see how C. Jim Pain weathered these two months. 257 00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:45,720 If he weathers, then then he's okay. But if not, 258 00:17:46,279 --> 00:17:47,839 I think there's going to be a real change in 259 00:17:47,839 --> 00:17:50,960 the leadership and we're all just waiting. It's criminology. 260 00:17:51,279 --> 00:17:54,319 Speaker 2: The other thing going on in China that is similar 261 00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:58,160 to what we are experiencing in this country is the 262 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:02,759 birth rate has fallen dramatically, and as a result, the 263 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:07,680 population of China is going to be falling rather precipitously. 264 00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:11,480 Speaker 6: Back to Gordon, it's been falling for about three years. 265 00:18:11,799 --> 00:18:14,599 It's now about one point four billion people, some say 266 00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:17,160 one point three billion, but by the end of this 267 00:18:17,279 --> 00:18:19,759 century it's going to be somewhere between three hundred and 268 00:18:19,759 --> 00:18:22,920 thirty and seven hundred and seventy million. This is going 269 00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:26,359 to be the biggest population fall in history in the 270 00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:30,559 absence of war or disease. And essentially, China's total fertility 271 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:34,839 rate now is probably half of replacement. So you can 272 00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:38,319 see why this population is going to collapse fairly soon. 273 00:18:38,799 --> 00:18:42,880 China claims one point three, some Chinese demographers say it's 274 00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:46,880 actually one point one. You'll see some say one point zero. 275 00:18:47,599 --> 00:18:50,240 There's a lot of disagreement about fertility in China for 276 00:18:50,279 --> 00:18:54,920 a number of reasons, but clearly it's around half of replacement. 277 00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:59,039 It's a dependency ratio, and China's dependency ratio is worse 278 00:18:59,079 --> 00:19:02,160 than almost every other countries. So it's not just a 279 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:06,680 shrinking population, it is who's in that population. And by 280 00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:08,880 the way, China believes that it can get around this 281 00:19:09,079 --> 00:19:13,319 with robots, but you can't do that. You can ameliorate 282 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:16,759 some of the effects of population declined by automation, but 283 00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:18,599 not to the extent that China needs. 284 00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:23,240 Speaker 2: And finally, what's the deal with China and the negotiations 285 00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:25,839 for a trade deal. We've got the big deadline coming 286 00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:29,720 up on Thursday, but what is the chance of us 287 00:19:29,759 --> 00:19:32,319 cutting a deal with China within the next month. 288 00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:35,559 Speaker 6: I don't think so, because I think both China and 289 00:19:35,599 --> 00:19:38,839 the United States are stalling. China's stalling because of the 290 00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:42,359 leadership turmoil we're in, stalling because President Trump is stitching 291 00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:44,799 up all these trade deals that are isolating China. So 292 00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:47,720 actually delay helps us, and I think that's what Trump 293 00:19:47,799 --> 00:19:48,160 is doing. 294 00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:51,200 Speaker 2: Speaking of trade, we got our trade deficit numbers in 295 00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:54,000 for the month of June. Takes a while for them 296 00:19:54,079 --> 00:19:56,480 to compile this. The trade deficit for the month of 297 00:19:56,559 --> 00:20:01,720 June sixty six to zero billion dollars. That let's go 298 00:20:01,799 --> 00:20:06,279 back a couple of months. Our trade deficit in April 299 00:20:06,519 --> 00:20:11,119 was sixty billion. It went up in May to seventy 300 00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:14,559 one billion. That was a lot of companies basically stepping 301 00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:17,599 up their orders, pulling orders from they were going to 302 00:20:17,599 --> 00:20:19,839 make later in the year to try to get around 303 00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:23,359 the tariffs that are coming. So sixty billion in May, 304 00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:28,480 I'm sorry, sixty billion in April, seventy one billion dollar 305 00:20:28,599 --> 00:20:31,960 trade deficit in May, and now sixty billion dollars of 306 00:20:32,079 --> 00:20:36,680 trade deficit in June. So it doesn't seem that even 307 00:20:36,759 --> 00:20:40,839 though all the hubub about tariffs, it doesn't seem to 308 00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:45,480 be having a significant impact on the trade deficit. We're 309 00:20:45,519 --> 00:20:48,839 still buying much more of their stuff than they're buying 310 00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:53,200 from US. Our exports in the month of June two 311 00:20:53,319 --> 00:20:57,720 hundred and seventy seven billion, our imports three hundred and 312 00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:05,880 thirty seven billion, still heavily buying from overseas. I don't 313 00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:08,759 think that's going to change anytime. So even with the 314 00:21:08,799 --> 00:21:12,799 tariffs may slow down our economy, may slow down the 315 00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:16,240 supplies of products in this country, but I think when 316 00:21:16,279 --> 00:21:18,519 it comes to the numbers, I don't think they're going 317 00:21:18,559 --> 00:21:26,359 to dramatically drop, which brings up two previous Secretaries of 318 00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:31,240 the Treasury. They're at the Aspen Institute meeting to boondoggle 319 00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:37,000 in Aspen, Colorado, and Tim Geidner and Hank Paulson are 320 00:21:37,279 --> 00:21:42,079 both there, and let's let's listen to what they were 321 00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:48,079 asked about regarding the tariffs. We'll start with Hank Paulson. 322 00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:55,039 Speaker 7: So I think the economy. You've got to start by saying, 323 00:21:55,200 --> 00:22:00,880 our economy is amazingly resilient, amazingly resilient. It's been the 324 00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:05,400 bright spot in the world since twenty twenty. So just 325 00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:09,160 think about what we've been through, the financial crisis, multi 326 00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:15,160 year pandemic, shifting economic policies. And yet you know, if 327 00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:18,799 you go back to twenty twenty, we've grown three times 328 00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:23,279 the rate of the rest of the G seven. We've 329 00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:28,839 had output forty percent higher than Germany, Canada and so on, 330 00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:32,440 and we have got the strongest private sector. So I 331 00:22:32,519 --> 00:22:35,640 start there. Then, in terms of what's going on with 332 00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:39,440 the economy, tariffs, etc. Let me tell you it's going 333 00:22:39,519 --> 00:22:42,160 to take a while to determine that. It looks like 334 00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:46,119 things have slowed down a lot, okay in terms of 335 00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:50,079 manufacturing jobs and in terms of job creation, but there's 336 00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:53,160 so much going on right Look at everything that's going 337 00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:56,839 on right now. It is amazing, and it's going to 338 00:22:56,839 --> 00:22:58,759 take a while the work its way through the system. 339 00:22:59,079 --> 00:23:02,440 So we've got, as you said, we've got tariffs, we've 340 00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:06,640 got tax cuts, we've got the impact of AI that's 341 00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:09,119 going to take a while for us to determine. 342 00:23:09,599 --> 00:23:11,880 Speaker 2: So will take a while to determine all of this, 343 00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:15,519 and that's I think the part that concerns me the 344 00:23:15,559 --> 00:23:20,480 most is that these are radical changes to the world's 345 00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:25,839 trading system. And when radical changes come along, you're going 346 00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:28,480 to have to wait to find out just exactly what 347 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:32,400 the results of those radical changes will be. Will they 348 00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:35,079 be good or will they be bad? We don't know yet. 349 00:23:36,079 --> 00:23:40,599 But that's Hank Paulson. Here's Timothy Geidner and his comment 350 00:23:40,839 --> 00:23:42,640 about the economy and tariffs. 351 00:23:43,559 --> 00:23:45,799 Speaker 5: Let mean, tariffs are a bad tax. They're like a 352 00:23:45,839 --> 00:23:52,240 corrosive tax on American manufacturers. They're aggressive in their impact there, 353 00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:54,079 and we don't know where they're going to settle out yet. 354 00:23:54,319 --> 00:23:56,079 You still don't have you know where China's going to 355 00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:57,680 settle out, where India's going to settle out, You know 356 00:23:57,799 --> 00:23:59,319 what the relative changes are going to be. So you 357 00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:02,039 don't know yet what the broad impact on supply change 358 00:24:02,079 --> 00:24:06,240 is going to be. But it's a it's a it's 359 00:24:06,279 --> 00:24:09,960 a shock. It's a hit that the US economy can withstand. 360 00:24:10,079 --> 00:24:15,160 It'll be it'll be meaningful, but not not enough to 361 00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:17,519 break this pretty strong economy. We're an economy is very 362 00:24:17,519 --> 00:24:19,400 hard to break. And we've got a whole bunch of 363 00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:22,359 things happen in American economy that are a source of 364 00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:26,400 strong investment, demand, innovation and things like that. And so 365 00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:28,319 it'll be hard to Hanks right, It'll be hard to 366 00:24:28,319 --> 00:24:31,319 figure out how hard to see the ultimate effect until 367 00:24:31,319 --> 00:24:34,119 we see where they settle out. But you know, it's 368 00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:37,000 it's like it's like rust. It's corrosive, hard to reverse 369 00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:40,880 because they tax, they raise the costs of inputs to manufacturers, 370 00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:43,599 and they are a hit to real incomes of the 371 00:24:43,599 --> 00:24:46,920 average American and you know, they they they have that 372 00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:49,799 basic effect you can't you can't escape. And the you know, 373 00:24:49,839 --> 00:24:52,319 the laun term challenge for us, of course, is yeah, 374 00:24:52,319 --> 00:24:54,680 they will raise revenue. You don't know how much revenue 375 00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:57,960 going to raise. And you know, we're a country living, 376 00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:04,160 living on the future, borrowing from the future, huge unsustainable, 377 00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:06,960 long term deficits, and that revenue is going to prove 378 00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:09,279 to be a very valuable thing in our pinnaclesism as 379 00:25:09,279 --> 00:25:10,960 we get through this, and heartfeel to give that up. 380 00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:13,400 So you know, most most people would say it's a 381 00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:15,880 bad form of tax, even though they know taxes need 382 00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:17,599 to going to go up. And it's going to be 383 00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:20,200 hard to get the political system to figure out a 384 00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:24,960 way to clean up and reform that legacy of tarists 385 00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:27,359 because they're gonna they're gonna find that revenue is so attractive. 386 00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:32,359 Speaker 2: I don't know how you digested the last two people. Hey, 387 00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:36,480 Paulson was all raw rab Everything's great, the economy is great. Well, 388 00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:38,680 we don't know what the impact will be at but boy, 389 00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:42,079 everything's great and we're a resilient economy. And Guidner's like, 390 00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:45,559 e or, oh, I don't know. It looks like it's 391 00:25:45,599 --> 00:25:50,240 a pretty big tax, and but we're still a strong economy. 392 00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:53,920 So they're both saying its kind of the same thing. 393 00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:58,839 One's positive, mister positive bouncing around. One's very negative. But 394 00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:00,759 they're both saying it's going to take a while before 395 00:26:00,799 --> 00:26:04,519 we can figure out the impact from this radical change 396 00:26:05,079 --> 00:26:09,440 in the world's global trading system. And the part that 397 00:26:09,519 --> 00:26:13,799 Tim Geitner came up with was a typical Democrat. He goes, Oh, 398 00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:16,000 everybody knows the taxes are going to have to go up, 399 00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:19,839 So this tariff is really a tax, and it's going 400 00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:23,400 to be hard to get rid of that because politicians 401 00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:27,640 are going to be relying upon that tax income and 402 00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:29,759 they're not going to want to get rid of it anytime, 403 00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:33,519 anytime soon down the road. And I think he's right. 404 00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:37,480 Once the tariff money and it's already started coming in, 405 00:26:37,759 --> 00:26:41,960 can you imagine Washington turning off a spigot of billions 406 00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:47,279 of dollars? I don't think so either. So President Trump 407 00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:51,519 weighed in this morning as well. He called into the 408 00:26:51,559 --> 00:26:55,079 Morning Show on CNBC. I wanted to play just a 409 00:26:55,079 --> 00:26:57,319 little bit of some of his comments here. They asked 410 00:26:57,359 --> 00:26:59,400 him about the tariffs, and this is what he had 411 00:26:59,440 --> 00:26:59,799 to say. 412 00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:02,160 Speaker 8: Within the next week or so, we're going to be 413 00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:06,559 announcing tariffs on specifically this is a you know, this 414 00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:09,319 is a separate class, and the fifteen percent tariffs on 415 00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:13,160 sort of everything. These are excluded classes, I call them. 416 00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:16,319 I like to call them excluded, like steel aluminum. At 417 00:27:16,319 --> 00:27:20,559 that time, we're going to be announcing on semiconductors and chips, 418 00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:23,720 which is a separate category because we want them made 419 00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:24,680 in the United States. 420 00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:28,599 Speaker 2: So more tariffs are coming, and it keeps everybody on 421 00:27:28,759 --> 00:27:32,279 edge because they don't know what the rules are or 422 00:27:32,319 --> 00:27:35,319 what they're going to be because they keep moving around. 423 00:27:36,079 --> 00:27:40,960 Then he was asked about the pick for the Federal 424 00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:43,599 Reserve chairman. Is what do you had to say? 425 00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:46,079 Speaker 1: He's very good. 426 00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:48,480 Speaker 8: Sometimes they're over and good until you put them in 427 00:27:48,519 --> 00:27:50,279 there and then they don't do so good. 428 00:27:50,759 --> 00:27:52,920 Speaker 1: But a lot of them, I think he's a very 429 00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:57,920 good guy. I think I say Kevin and Kevin both Kevin's. 430 00:27:57,599 --> 00:27:59,319 Speaker 8: Are very good and I have two other people that 431 00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:02,160 are doing well. You look, it's in the end. There 432 00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:06,000 are numerous people that are qualified. Now I think that 433 00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:10,319 it'll be one of four people. They're going to make 434 00:28:10,319 --> 00:28:11,200 the decision soon. 435 00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:13,640 Speaker 1: Well, I love Scott, but he wants to stay where 436 00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:14,200 he is. I will. 437 00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:16,799 Speaker 8: I'll take him off because I asked him just last night, 438 00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:18,240 is this something you want? 439 00:28:18,319 --> 00:28:19,759 Speaker 1: Nope, I want to stay where I am. 440 00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:23,920 Speaker 2: So the Kevin and Kevin and Scott. Kevin has it 441 00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:29,400 and Kevin warsh Hasss the head of the Economic Advisor's 442 00:28:29,839 --> 00:28:32,960 Council for the President right now. I like him a lot. 443 00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:36,160 Kevin Walsh has been on the FED a number of 444 00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:39,920 years ago. He's also, I think, pretty impressive guy. And 445 00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:43,839 Scott was Scott Bessant, who is the Treasury secretary who 446 00:28:43,839 --> 00:28:46,559 basically told the President last night, now, I'd rather say 447 00:28:46,559 --> 00:28:52,359 his Treasury secretary. Let's see talking about China earlier. Let's 448 00:28:52,359 --> 00:28:55,519 see what Donald Trump had to say about this deal 449 00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:59,359 with China. China's our biggest trading partner. What does the 450 00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:00,920 President say, think is going to happen? 451 00:29:01,359 --> 00:29:02,079 Speaker 1: In have a meeting. 452 00:29:02,119 --> 00:29:04,559 Speaker 8: We have a very good relationship. But I didn't call 453 00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:07,000 for the meeting. He called for the meeting, so the 454 00:29:07,039 --> 00:29:09,839 fake news announced Donald Trump wants. 455 00:29:09,799 --> 00:29:11,720 Speaker 1: A meeting with China. No, I didn't want it. 456 00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:14,319 Speaker 8: No, he asked for a meeting, And I'll end up 457 00:29:14,319 --> 00:29:16,599 having a meeting before the end of the year, most likely. 458 00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:18,720 Speaker 1: If we make a deal. If we don't make a deal, 459 00:29:18,759 --> 00:29:19,759 I'm not going to have a meeting. 460 00:29:19,799 --> 00:29:21,440 Speaker 8: I mean, you know what, what's the purpose of meeting 461 00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:22,519 if we're not going to make a deal. 462 00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:25,119 Speaker 1: But we're getting very close to a deal. We're getting 463 00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:26,559 along with China very well. 464 00:29:26,759 --> 00:29:29,519 Speaker 8: We do very very little business with India because their 465 00:29:29,519 --> 00:29:30,640 tariffs are so high. 466 00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:33,839 Speaker 1: So India has not been a good trading partner. 467 00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:35,880 Speaker 8: Because they do a lot of business with us, but 468 00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:39,480 we don't do business with them. So we settled on 469 00:29:39,759 --> 00:29:41,839 twenty five percent, but I think I'm going to raise 470 00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:44,440 that very substantially over the next twenty four hours because 471 00:29:44,759 --> 00:29:47,759 they're buying Russian oil, they're fueling the war machine, and 472 00:29:47,799 --> 00:29:48,920 are they're going to do that? 473 00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:50,519 Speaker 1: Then I'm not going to be happy. 474 00:29:51,519 --> 00:29:53,839 Speaker 2: So he thinks that he can do a deal with China. 475 00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:58,480 But India, if we told you yesterday, India has played 476 00:29:58,599 --> 00:30:01,119 both sides of the aisle, been trying to be friends 477 00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:04,119 with us. They're trying to be friends with Russia. They've 478 00:30:04,119 --> 00:30:07,559 been buying oil from Russia, which gives Russia money for 479 00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:12,039 the war machine. And we've asked India not to and 480 00:30:12,079 --> 00:30:15,039 they told us to go pound sand because they're getting 481 00:30:15,839 --> 00:30:19,559 they're getting oil at a super cheap price, and so 482 00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:22,559 it's good for India. They get oil at a very 483 00:30:22,599 --> 00:30:27,680 low price. But they're basically blowing us off and saying sorry, 484 00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:31,279 we'd rather do business with Russia. And oh, by the way, 485 00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:35,599 we're also being friendly with China. So India is an 486 00:30:35,599 --> 00:30:38,640 important one to keep an eye on. Out of all 487 00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:43,839 of this on Wall Street today, nothing much to write 488 00:30:43,839 --> 00:30:46,400 home about. A lot of red arrows, but small ones. 489 00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:51,000 Dow Jones Industrials down sixty two, the now close to 490 00:30:51,079 --> 00:30:54,880 forty four one thousand and one eleven NASDA. I'm sorry, 491 00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:57,680 S and B down thirty NASDAK down one hundred and 492 00:30:57,680 --> 00:31:00,599 thirty seven. Price of gold up a little, up seven 493 00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:04,519 dollars to thirty four thirty four. Oil down a dollar 494 00:31:05,079 --> 00:31:08,519 to sixty five dollars for one barrel of oil. That's 495 00:31:08,519 --> 00:31:11,400 it for today. Thanks for coming by. We'll try this 496 00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:14,599 again tomorrow, and we hope again we'll see you then