WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.040 --> 00:00:01.760 What is life for ella Mosque? 2 00:00:04.360 --> 00:00:06.759 I find this as I get older, I find that 3 00:00:06.879 --> 00:00:12.480 question to be maybe more and more confusing or troubling 4 00:00:12.800 --> 00:00:19.440 or uncertain, I think, particularly when you see the advancement 5 00:00:19.519 --> 00:00:22.920 of something like video games. You know, like say forty 6 00:00:23.000 --> 00:00:25.920 years ago you had video games. The most advanced video 7 00:00:25.960 --> 00:00:28.679 game would be like like Pong, where you had like 8 00:00:28.800 --> 00:00:32.880 two rectangles and a dot and you're like batting it 9 00:00:32.920 --> 00:00:33.560 back and forth. 10 00:00:33.640 --> 00:00:34.200 I played it. 11 00:00:34.240 --> 00:00:37.719 Oh yeah, like me too, exactly. I played exactly sort 12 00:00:37.719 --> 00:00:39.880 of dates you a little bit, but yeah, we both 13 00:00:39.880 --> 00:00:43.000 played the same game, and that was like, wow, that 14 00:00:43.079 --> 00:00:44.439 was a pretty fun game at the time. 15 00:00:45.759 --> 00:00:46.880 But now you can. 16 00:00:46.759 --> 00:00:50.640 See a video game that's photo realistic, almost photo realistic, 17 00:00:50.679 --> 00:00:55.359 and millions of people playing simultaneously, and and you see 18 00:00:55.359 --> 00:01:00.679 where things going with virtual reality and augmented reality. And 19 00:01:01.799 --> 00:01:04.719 if you extrapolate that out into the future with any 20 00:01:04.920 --> 00:01:08.599 rate of progress at all, like even zero point one 21 00:01:08.599 --> 00:01:12.959 percent or something like that a year, then eventually those 22 00:01:13.000 --> 00:01:16.400 games will be indistinguishable from reality. That will be so 23 00:01:16.519 --> 00:01:18.359 realistic you will not be able to tell the difference 24 00:01:18.400 --> 00:01:23.799 between that game and reality as we know it. And 25 00:01:23.840 --> 00:01:28.439 then it seems like, well, how do we know that 26 00:01:28.439 --> 00:01:31.120 that didn't happen in the past, and that we're not 27 00:01:31.159 --> 00:01:32.480 in one of those games ourselves. 28 00:01:33.640 --> 00:01:34.159 Interesting. 29 00:01:34.640 --> 00:01:37.640 Interesting, I mean it could. 30 00:01:37.480 --> 00:01:40.319 Be anything is possible in life. 31 00:01:40.840 --> 00:01:44.480 I mean there's like I mean, yeah, particularly like things 32 00:01:44.480 --> 00:01:48.280 seem to be accelerating to some judge to something. 33 00:01:48.439 --> 00:01:48.840 Isn't it. 34 00:01:48.879 --> 00:01:52.439 I mean, if we look at our life, a seem 35 00:01:52.480 --> 00:01:56.200 in the past one hundred year, li've been excavating quite fast. 36 00:01:56.239 --> 00:01:58.000 Yeah, in the past twenty. 37 00:01:57.879 --> 00:01:59.879 It's getting faster, faster and faster. 38 00:02:00.120 --> 00:02:03.519 Is it more slow? So my question is really how 39 00:02:03.680 --> 00:02:04.599 life will be. 40 00:02:04.519 --> 00:02:08.120 In air twenty thirty fifty y if from now, our education, 41 00:02:08.599 --> 00:02:10.280 our transport, how'd you see it? 42 00:02:11.599 --> 00:02:11.759 Well? 43 00:02:11.800 --> 00:02:13.400 I think this is one of those things that's quite 44 00:02:13.400 --> 00:02:19.560 difficult to predict when you think of say, I mean 45 00:02:19.560 --> 00:02:22.960 the first controlled powered flight was nineteen oh three with 46 00:02:23.000 --> 00:02:28.240 the Right brothers, and then sixty six years later we 47 00:02:28.599 --> 00:02:29.840 put the first people on the moon. 48 00:02:30.919 --> 00:02:36.120 I mean that if you'd ask people, say, in nineteen. 49 00:02:35.840 --> 00:02:39.280 Hundred, what are the odds of you know, man lanning 50 00:02:39.319 --> 00:02:43.199 on the moon, they would have said, that's ridiculous. And 51 00:02:43.400 --> 00:02:45.439 if you try to talk to them about the Internet, 52 00:02:45.479 --> 00:02:47.000 they would not even know what the heck you even 53 00:02:47.199 --> 00:02:50.080 what are you talking about, Like this sounds so crazy, 54 00:02:51.680 --> 00:02:56.400 but today with one hundred dollars device, you can. 55 00:02:58.039 --> 00:02:59.039 Video conference with. 56 00:02:59.039 --> 00:03:01.840 Anyone in the world on the other side of the world, 57 00:03:02.280 --> 00:03:04.039 and if you have a Wi Fi connection. 58 00:03:04.759 --> 00:03:05.280 You know, just you. 59 00:03:05.639 --> 00:03:11.560 It's basically free, free to have an instant visual communication 60 00:03:11.639 --> 00:03:13.439 with anyone or even with millions of people. 61 00:03:14.000 --> 00:03:14.199 You know. 62 00:03:14.240 --> 00:03:17.080 With social media you can communicate to millions of people simultaneously. 63 00:03:19.800 --> 00:03:23.360 So and you can google something and ask any question. 64 00:03:23.439 --> 00:03:25.759 It's like an article of wisdom that you can ask 65 00:03:25.800 --> 00:03:29.840 almost for any question, again an instant response. It would 66 00:03:29.840 --> 00:03:32.400 have been incredibly difficult to predict these things in the past, 67 00:03:32.439 --> 00:03:38.800 even the relatively recent past. So I think the one 68 00:03:38.840 --> 00:03:41.560 thing that we can be quite certain of is that 69 00:03:41.599 --> 00:03:44.479 any predictions we make today for the for what the 70 00:03:44.479 --> 00:03:47.080 future will be like in fifty years will be wrong, 71 00:03:48.439 --> 00:03:52.120 that's for sure. I mean, I think directionally, I can 72 00:03:52.159 --> 00:03:55.840 tell you what I hope the future has, as opposed 73 00:03:55.879 --> 00:03:57.960 to maybe what it will be, because this may just 74 00:03:57.960 --> 00:04:02.960 be wishful thinking. I mean, I hope we are out 75 00:04:03.000 --> 00:04:06.840 there on. 76 00:04:05.360 --> 00:04:09.759 Mars and maybe beyond Mars the moons of Jupiter. I 77 00:04:09.800 --> 00:04:11.159 hope we're. 78 00:04:12.560 --> 00:04:17.720 Traveling frequently throughout the solar system, perhaps preparing for missions 79 00:04:17.759 --> 00:04:21.920 to nearby star systems. I think all of this is 80 00:04:21.959 --> 00:04:26.439 possible within fifty years, and I think that'd be very 81 00:04:26.439 --> 00:04:34.639 exciting to do that, and I think we'll see autonomy 82 00:04:34.920 --> 00:04:41.279 and artificial intelligence advanced tremendously. That's actually quite near term. 83 00:04:41.399 --> 00:04:43.240 My guess is in probably. 84 00:04:44.600 --> 00:04:49.360 Ten years, it will be very unusual for cars to 85 00:04:49.399 --> 00:04:52.079 be built that are not fully autonomous. 86 00:04:52.120 --> 00:04:53.160 Ten years. 87 00:04:52.959 --> 00:04:59.360 Yeah, I think almost all cars built will be capable 88 00:04:59.360 --> 00:05:00.959 of full autonomy in about ten years. 89 00:05:03.199 --> 00:05:03.680 As it is. 90 00:05:03.720 --> 00:05:06.519 The Tesla cars that are made today have the sensor 91 00:05:06.560 --> 00:05:10.959 system necessary for full autonomy, and we think probably enough 92 00:05:11.000 --> 00:05:14.600 compute power to be safer than a person. So it's 93 00:05:14.639 --> 00:05:17.120 mostly just a question of developing the software and uploading 94 00:05:17.120 --> 00:05:20.519 the software, and if it turns out that the compute power, 95 00:05:21.319 --> 00:05:22.519 that more compute power. 96 00:05:22.240 --> 00:05:24.279 Is needed, we can easily upgrade the computer. 97 00:05:25.639 --> 00:05:28.759 And so that's all Tesla's built since October of last year, 98 00:05:30.439 --> 00:05:32.800 and other manufacturers will follow and do the same thing. 99 00:05:33.920 --> 00:05:37.279 So getting in a car will be like getting in 100 00:05:37.319 --> 00:05:40.079 an elevator. You just tell it where you want to 101 00:05:40.120 --> 00:05:45.120 go and it takes you there with extreme levels of safety, 102 00:05:45.199 --> 00:05:49.120 and that'll be normal. That'll just be normal for elevators. 103 00:05:49.120 --> 00:05:51.560 There used to be elevator operators. You get in and 104 00:05:51.759 --> 00:05:54.759 be guy moving a lever. Now you just get in, 105 00:05:54.800 --> 00:05:59.560 you press the button, and that's taken for granted. So 106 00:05:59.560 --> 00:06:04.560 atonomy will be widespread the you know, I think one 107 00:06:04.560 --> 00:06:09.399 of the most troubling questions is artificial intelligence. And I 108 00:06:09.399 --> 00:06:15.160 don't I don't mean narrow AI like vehicle autonomy. I 109 00:06:15.160 --> 00:06:19.519 would put in the narrow AI class. It's narrowly trying 110 00:06:19.560 --> 00:06:25.279 to achieve a certain function. But deep artificial intelligence or 111 00:06:25.319 --> 00:06:29.480 what are sometimes called artificial general intelligence, where you could 112 00:06:29.560 --> 00:06:30.959 have AI. 113 00:06:30.600 --> 00:06:35.959 That is much much smarter than the smartest human on earth. This, 114 00:06:36.160 --> 00:06:40.879 I think is a dangerous situation. 115 00:06:42.279 --> 00:06:44.480 Why it is dangerous? I mean there's two view. 116 00:06:44.560 --> 00:06:49.360 One view is artificial intelligent tool health humanity. There's another 117 00:06:49.360 --> 00:06:53.079 school of think of thought, is artificial intelligent. 118 00:06:52.759 --> 00:06:55.360 Is a threat to humanity? Why is it? 119 00:06:56.279 --> 00:06:57.199 Well? I think it's both. 120 00:06:57.920 --> 00:07:02.319 You know, It's like one way to think of it 121 00:07:02.360 --> 00:07:07.399 is imagine we're going to be visited. Imagine you're very 122 00:07:07.399 --> 00:07:10.639 confident that we were going to be visited by super 123 00:07:10.639 --> 00:07:15.399 intelligent aliens in let's say ten years or twenty years 124 00:07:15.399 --> 00:07:17.600 at the most, super intelligence. 125 00:07:17.120 --> 00:07:20.160 So you think within twenty years, yes, I have alien 126 00:07:20.199 --> 00:07:20.680 in Earth. 127 00:07:22.879 --> 00:07:27.319 Well, digital superintelligence will be like an alien, will be 128 00:07:27.399 --> 00:07:27.920 like a aien. 129 00:07:28.000 --> 00:07:28.240 Yeah. 130 00:07:28.360 --> 00:07:29.920 But my question is. 131 00:07:31.600 --> 00:07:36.959 Do you think there is other intelligent life outside there? 132 00:07:38.120 --> 00:07:41.199 It seems probable, But I think this is one of 133 00:07:41.240 --> 00:07:43.560 the great questions in physics and. 134 00:07:43.519 --> 00:07:49.839 Philosophy is where are the aliens? Maybe they're among us. 135 00:07:49.839 --> 00:07:53.759 I don't know. Some people think I'm an alien. 136 00:07:55.519 --> 00:08:01.000 Not true, not true, but maybe we are. 137 00:08:01.920 --> 00:08:02.959 Maybe we are alien. 138 00:08:03.079 --> 00:08:05.959 And I mean, if you look at this part of 139 00:08:06.000 --> 00:08:13.120 the world, they believe that human being are not from Earth. 140 00:08:13.639 --> 00:08:17.839 They came from somewhere else. Even maybe an Adam came 141 00:08:17.879 --> 00:08:21.319 from somewhere else to Earth. So in a way, human 142 00:08:21.360 --> 00:08:27.519 being alien to this land. Do you think we'll make 143 00:08:27.560 --> 00:08:30.720 contact with alien within the next fifty years. 144 00:08:32.559 --> 00:08:36.159 Well, that's a really tough one to say. 145 00:08:36.559 --> 00:08:37.720 I mean, if there are. 146 00:08:39.320 --> 00:08:44.159 Super intelligent aliens out there, they're probably already observing us. 147 00:08:44.639 --> 00:08:48.080 That would seem quite likely, and we just are not 148 00:08:48.120 --> 00:08:49.279 spot enough to realize it. 149 00:08:51.200 --> 00:08:53.399 But I can do some. 150 00:08:53.240 --> 00:09:01.320 Back the Ovelock calculations, and any advanced aliens havealization that 151 00:09:01.559 --> 00:09:10.960 was at all interested in populating the galaxy, even without. 152 00:09:10.480 --> 00:09:11.799 Without exceeding the speed of light. 153 00:09:11.840 --> 00:09:15.039 Even if you're only moving at say ten or twenty 154 00:09:15.039 --> 00:09:16.320 percent of the speed of light. 155 00:09:17.159 --> 00:09:22.120 You could populate the entire galaxy. And let's say ten. 156 00:09:21.919 --> 00:09:27.320 Million years, maybe twenty million years max. This is nothing, 157 00:09:27.840 --> 00:09:30.879 you know, in the grand scheme of things. 158 00:09:31.120 --> 00:09:33.159 Once you said, do you want to die in Mars? 159 00:09:33.320 --> 00:09:33.639 Why? 160 00:09:34.440 --> 00:09:39.759 I don't reclear. I don't want to die on Mars. 161 00:09:39.799 --> 00:09:43.759 It's like if I mean, we're all going to die someday, 162 00:09:43.879 --> 00:09:47.360 and if you're going to pick someplace to die, then 163 00:09:47.399 --> 00:09:50.840 why not Mars? You know, if if we're born on Earth, 164 00:09:51.480 --> 00:09:55.240 why not die on Mars. It seems like maybe it'd 165 00:09:55.840 --> 00:09:59.639 be quite exciting. But so I think given the choice 166 00:09:59.679 --> 00:10:02.759 of dying on Earth or dying on Mars, I'd say, yeah, sure, 167 00:10:02.799 --> 00:10:05.360 I'll die on Mars. But it's not some kind of 168 00:10:05.360 --> 00:10:09.679 Mars deathwash and and and if I do die on Mars, 169 00:10:09.759 --> 00:10:11.159 I just don't want it to be on impact. 170 00:10:12.399 --> 00:10:18.399 Got it, Let's come back to Earth. Actually, you tweeted 171 00:10:18.440 --> 00:10:24.720 that you are building a tunnel under Washington, d C. 172 00:10:26.159 --> 00:10:27.799 Why what is it? 173 00:10:28.399 --> 00:10:33.159 Well, it's a secret plot just between us. How but 174 00:10:33.320 --> 00:10:37.720 you have new Yeah exactly, please keep that secret. The 175 00:10:38.480 --> 00:10:41.240 well I think this is going to sound a little 176 00:10:42.440 --> 00:10:47.919 I mean, it seems like somewhat trivial or or silly, 177 00:10:48.000 --> 00:10:50.639 but I've been saying this for many years now. But 178 00:10:50.679 --> 00:10:55.279 I think that the solution to urban congestion is a 179 00:10:55.360 --> 00:10:59.799 network of tunnels under cities. And you can when I 180 00:11:00.200 --> 00:11:02.759 I don't mean a two D plane of tunnels, I 181 00:11:02.799 --> 00:11:06.840 mean tunnels that go many levels deep, so you can 182 00:11:06.879 --> 00:11:12.039 always go deeper than you can go up, like the 183 00:11:12.080 --> 00:11:16.120 deepest mines are taller than the tallest buildings. So you 184 00:11:16.120 --> 00:11:21.000 can have tunnels, a network of tunnels that is twenty thirty, 185 00:11:21.080 --> 00:11:24.399 forty to fifty levels, as many levels as you want, really, 186 00:11:25.720 --> 00:11:30.320 and so given that, you can overcome the congestion situation 187 00:11:30.559 --> 00:11:35.519 in any city in the world. The challenge is just 188 00:11:35.559 --> 00:11:40.000 figuring out how do you build tunnels quickly and. 189 00:11:40.000 --> 00:11:42.679 At low cost and with high safety. 190 00:11:44.799 --> 00:11:47.440 So if tunneling technology can be improved to the point 191 00:11:47.480 --> 00:11:52.679 where you can build tunnels fast, cheap and safe, then 192 00:11:53.519 --> 00:11:58.240 that would completely get rid of any traffic situations in cities. 193 00:12:00.320 --> 00:12:01.679 And so I think that's why I think it's an 194 00:12:01.679 --> 00:12:07.279 important technology. And Washing Washington, d C, LA, and most 195 00:12:07.320 --> 00:12:09.759 of the major American cities, most major cities in the 196 00:12:09.799 --> 00:12:13.960 world suffer from severe traffic issues, and it's mostly because 197 00:12:14.000 --> 00:12:16.360 you've got these buildings, which are your tall buildings that 198 00:12:16.399 --> 00:12:18.399 are three D and you have a road network that 199 00:12:18.519 --> 00:12:23.519 is at one level, and then people generally want to 200 00:12:23.519 --> 00:12:25.240 go in and out of those buildings at the exact 201 00:12:25.279 --> 00:12:29.919 same time, so then you get the traffic jam. 202 00:12:30.240 --> 00:12:36.000 Let's come back to Uee and Dubai. 203 00:12:36.759 --> 00:12:39.759 The first time I met you, it was fourth of 204 00:12:39.879 --> 00:12:45.039 June twenty fifteen at your office in Space six, and 205 00:12:45.799 --> 00:12:48.519 I ask you would you have a presence a new 206 00:12:48.559 --> 00:12:53.080 ee A new answer was I'm busy with China, maybe 207 00:12:53.120 --> 00:12:55.480 not in the near future. And almost a year and 208 00:12:55.519 --> 00:12:59.080 a half later we are here. Same time goes quite fast. 209 00:13:00.080 --> 00:13:04.120 Now, well, I think actually things are going recently well 210 00:13:04.159 --> 00:13:10.159 in China. So we have some initial challenges figuring out 211 00:13:10.240 --> 00:13:15.200 charging and service infrastructure and various other things, but now 212 00:13:15.200 --> 00:13:20.159 it's actually going fairly well, and so the timing seemed 213 00:13:20.200 --> 00:13:25.159 to be good to really make a significant debut in 214 00:13:25.200 --> 00:13:27.399 this region starting in Dubai. 215 00:13:30.440 --> 00:13:35.279 A new opinion, what is then you would disturbing thing 216 00:13:35.919 --> 00:13:37.360 that will come technology next? 217 00:13:37.399 --> 00:13:38.559 What's Dixson technology? 218 00:13:38.720 --> 00:13:40.600 What's next in technology. 219 00:13:42.519 --> 00:13:46.039 That will disturb the way we live, the way we think, 220 00:13:46.159 --> 00:13:47.600 the way we do business. 221 00:13:48.240 --> 00:13:53.639 Well, the most near term impact from a technology standpoint 222 00:13:53.799 --> 00:13:58.759 is autonomous cars, like fully self driving cars. Like I said, 223 00:13:58.799 --> 00:14:01.320 that's going to be it's going to happen much faster 224 00:14:01.399 --> 00:14:07.279 than people realize, so and that it's going to be 225 00:14:07.320 --> 00:14:11.240 a great convenience to be an autonomous car. But there 226 00:14:11.240 --> 00:14:14.960 are many people whose jobs it is to drive. So 227 00:14:15.200 --> 00:14:19.200 if if, in fact, I think it might be the 228 00:14:19.240 --> 00:14:26.639 single largest employer of people is driving in various forms, 229 00:14:27.320 --> 00:14:30.120 and so then we need to figure out new roles 230 00:14:30.159 --> 00:14:32.679 for well what what you know, what do those people do? 231 00:14:34.720 --> 00:14:37.960 But but it will be very disruptive and very quick. Now, 232 00:14:38.000 --> 00:14:40.600 and I should characterize what I mean by by by quick, 233 00:14:42.720 --> 00:14:47.559 because the there are quick means different things to different people. 234 00:14:48.000 --> 00:14:52.240 There are over two billion vehicles in the world approaching 235 00:14:52.279 --> 00:14:55.519 in fact, approaching two and a half billion cars and 236 00:14:55.600 --> 00:15:01.279 trucks in the world. The total new vehicle production capacity 237 00:15:01.480 --> 00:15:05.960 is about one hundred million, which which makes sense because 238 00:15:05.960 --> 00:15:08.000 the life of a car or truck before it's finally 239 00:15:08.000 --> 00:15:14.039 scrapped is about twenty twenty five years. So the point 240 00:15:14.039 --> 00:15:18.759 at which we see full autonomy appear will not be 241 00:15:18.840 --> 00:15:21.720 the point at which there is massive societal upheaval, because 242 00:15:22.039 --> 00:15:25.039 it will take a long time to make enough autonomous 243 00:15:25.120 --> 00:15:28.279 vehicles to. 244 00:15:27.200 --> 00:15:29.120 Be to disrupt. 245 00:15:30.320 --> 00:15:34.279 Employment, So that disruption I'm talking about will take place 246 00:15:34.919 --> 00:15:36.720 over about twenty years. 247 00:15:37.279 --> 00:15:39.919 But still twenty years is a short period of time to. 248 00:15:41.519 --> 00:15:45.480 Have I think something like twelve to fifteen percent of 249 00:15:45.519 --> 00:15:47.039 the workforce be unemployed. 250 00:15:48.600 --> 00:15:48.960 Thank you. 251 00:15:51.039 --> 00:15:55.919 This is the largest global government somewhat we have over 252 00:15:55.919 --> 00:15:59.320 one hundred and thirty nine government year. If you want 253 00:15:59.360 --> 00:16:03.879 to advance is government official tubiddy for the future? What 254 00:16:04.120 --> 00:16:09.960 is three things or three advice you'll give them? 255 00:16:10.000 --> 00:16:13.360 Well, I think the first bit of advice would be 256 00:16:13.440 --> 00:16:18.320 to really pay close attention to the development of artificial intelligence. 257 00:16:19.600 --> 00:16:21.559 I think this is we need. 258 00:16:21.399 --> 00:16:28.279 To just be very careful in how we adopt artificial 259 00:16:28.279 --> 00:16:32.679 intelligence and to make sure that researchers don't get carried away, 260 00:16:33.279 --> 00:16:35.440 because sometimes what happens as a scientist can get so 261 00:16:35.799 --> 00:16:40.480 engrossed in their work they don't necessarily realize the ramifications 262 00:16:40.639 --> 00:16:45.200 of what they're doing. So I think it's important for 263 00:16:45.559 --> 00:16:48.919 public safety that we govern to keep a close eye 264 00:16:49.039 --> 00:16:52.120 on artificial intelligence and make sure that it does not 265 00:16:52.200 --> 00:16:53.799 represent a danger to the public. 266 00:16:57.639 --> 00:16:59.080 Let's see. Secondly, I would. 267 00:16:58.840 --> 00:17:07.359 Say we do need to think about transport in general, 268 00:17:09.400 --> 00:17:21.480 and there's the movement towards electric vehicles sustainable transport that 269 00:17:21.599 --> 00:17:24.519 I think that's going to be good for many reasons. 270 00:17:24.519 --> 00:17:28.160 But again not something that happens immediately. That'll happen slower 271 00:17:28.200 --> 00:17:33.279 than the self driving vehicles, So that's probably something that 272 00:17:33.319 --> 00:17:37.839 happens over thirty or forty years, the transition to electric vehicles. 273 00:17:41.119 --> 00:17:47.680 So thinking about that in context, the demand for electricity 274 00:17:47.720 --> 00:17:53.079 will increase dramatically. So currently in terms of total energy 275 00:17:53.160 --> 00:17:56.599 usage in the world, it's about one third electricity, about 276 00:17:56.599 --> 00:18:02.880 one third transport, about one third heating. So over time 277 00:18:03.279 --> 00:18:08.000 that will transition to almost all, not not all, but 278 00:18:08.440 --> 00:18:13.559 predominantly electricity, which means that the demand for electricity will 279 00:18:13.559 --> 00:18:17.559 probably triple. So it's going to be very important to 280 00:18:17.599 --> 00:18:20.799 think about how do you make so much more electricity. 281 00:18:23.000 --> 00:18:29.279 And seem they have an easy job. 282 00:18:29.359 --> 00:18:32.400 That's that's it, there's more, no more challenges for that. 283 00:18:33.279 --> 00:18:38.519 No, Well, then I think maybe these these things do 284 00:18:38.559 --> 00:18:40.799 play into each other a little bit. But what to 285 00:18:40.880 --> 00:18:44.200 do about mass unemployment? This is going to be a 286 00:18:44.200 --> 00:18:49.880 massive social challenge, and I think ultimately we will have 287 00:18:49.920 --> 00:18:53.279 to have some kind of universal basic income. I don't 288 00:18:53.279 --> 00:18:57.440 think we're gonna have a choice basic income. Universal basic income, 289 00:18:57.480 --> 00:18:58.759 I think it's going to be necessary. 290 00:18:59.640 --> 00:19:03.319 So to mean that unemployed people will. 291 00:19:02.680 --> 00:19:05.640 Be paid across the lab Yeah, because there is no 292 00:19:05.799 --> 00:19:08.039 job machine robot is taking over. 293 00:19:08.400 --> 00:19:10.759 There will be fewer and fewer jobs that a robot 294 00:19:10.839 --> 00:19:15.319 cannot do better. Okay, that's simply the I don't want 295 00:19:15.319 --> 00:19:18.880 to be clear that these these are not things that 296 00:19:18.960 --> 00:19:21.240 I think that I wish would happen. These are think 297 00:19:21.480 --> 00:19:27.400 simply things that I think probably will happen. And since 298 00:19:28.079 --> 00:19:30.799 if they if if my assessment is correct and they 299 00:19:30.839 --> 00:19:32.759 probably will happen, then we need to say what are 300 00:19:32.759 --> 00:19:35.200 we going to do about it? And I think some 301 00:19:35.279 --> 00:19:37.359 kind of a universal makes basic income is going to 302 00:19:37.359 --> 00:19:42.799 be necessary. Now, the output, the output of goods and 303 00:19:42.839 --> 00:19:48.400 services will be extremely high, So with automation, they will 304 00:19:48.440 --> 00:19:54.599 they will come abundance, there will be almost everything will 305 00:19:54.599 --> 00:20:03.279 get very cheap. The it's so it's I think the 306 00:20:03.480 --> 00:20:06.279 biggest I think we'll just end up doing a universal 307 00:20:06.279 --> 00:20:06.880 based SKA income. 308 00:20:06.920 --> 00:20:08.000 It's going to be necessary. 309 00:20:09.680 --> 00:20:14.359 The harder challenge, much harder challenge, is how do people 310 00:20:14.400 --> 00:20:17.920 then have meaning like a lot of people, they derive 311 00:20:18.640 --> 00:20:20.200 their meaning from their employment. 312 00:20:21.440 --> 00:20:22.799 So if you. 313 00:20:22.799 --> 00:20:26.839 Don't have if you're not needed, if there's not a 314 00:20:26.960 --> 00:20:31.400 need for your labor, how do you what's the meaning? 315 00:20:31.680 --> 00:20:33.640 Do you? Do you have meaning? Do you feel useless? 316 00:20:34.119 --> 00:20:36.519 These are much that's a much harder problem to deal with. 317 00:20:39.039 --> 00:20:40.759 And then how do we ensure that the future is 318 00:20:41.039 --> 00:20:43.000 going to be the future that we want that we 319 00:20:43.039 --> 00:20:43.599 still like. 320 00:20:47.480 --> 00:20:47.680 Now? 321 00:20:47.920 --> 00:20:53.039 I mean, I do think that there's a potential path here, 322 00:20:53.119 --> 00:20:58.079 which is and we're really getting into science fiction or 323 00:20:58.400 --> 00:21:03.279 create you know, sort of advanced science stuff, but having 324 00:21:04.000 --> 00:21:10.200 some sort of merger with biological intelligence and machine intelligence. 325 00:21:12.720 --> 00:21:18.839 To some degree, we are already a cybalk like uh, 326 00:21:20.000 --> 00:21:22.640 you think of like the digital tools that you have, 327 00:21:22.799 --> 00:21:26.839 your phone, your computer, the applications that you have, like 328 00:21:26.920 --> 00:21:28.839 the fact that, as as mentioned earlier, you can ask 329 00:21:28.880 --> 00:21:31.279 a question and instantly get an. 330 00:21:31.200 --> 00:21:34.799 Answer from Google or you know, from other things. 331 00:21:35.720 --> 00:21:40.200 And and so you already have a digital tertiary tertiary layer. 332 00:21:40.279 --> 00:21:42.160 I say tertiary because you can think of the limbic 333 00:21:42.240 --> 00:21:45.480 system kind of the the animal brain or the primal brain, 334 00:21:45.519 --> 00:21:48.400 and then the core cortex kind of the thinking planning 335 00:21:48.440 --> 00:21:51.200 part of the brain, and then your digital self as 336 00:21:51.200 --> 00:21:56.759 a as a third layer the so you already have that, 337 00:21:56.799 --> 00:21:59.640 and it's like if somebody dies, the digital ghost is 338 00:21:59.640 --> 00:22:03.240 still out all of their emails and the pictures that 339 00:22:03.240 --> 00:22:06.160 they've posted in their social media, that still lives even 340 00:22:06.160 --> 00:22:07.839 if their physically if they died. 341 00:22:08.720 --> 00:22:11.759 So over time I think we will probably see. 342 00:22:15.160 --> 00:22:19.480 A closer merger of biological intelligence and digital intelligence. And 343 00:22:19.519 --> 00:22:23.160 it's mostly about the bandwidth, the speed of the connection 344 00:22:23.319 --> 00:22:29.279 between your brain and your digital the digital extension of yourself, 345 00:22:31.119 --> 00:22:37.119 particularly output and output if anything is getting worse. You know, 346 00:22:36.839 --> 00:22:39.799 we used to have like keyboards that would use a lot. 347 00:22:39.880 --> 00:22:42.279 Now we do most of our input through our thumbs 348 00:22:43.279 --> 00:22:48.559 on a phone, and that's just very slow. A computer 349 00:22:48.640 --> 00:22:53.160 can communicate at a trillion bits per second, but your 350 00:22:53.200 --> 00:22:56.640 thumb can maybe do ten bits per second or one 351 00:22:56.680 --> 00:23:01.839 hundred if you being generous. Some high bandwidth interface to 352 00:23:01.920 --> 00:23:07.839 the brain I think will be something that helps achieve 353 00:23:07.839 --> 00:23:12.640 a symbiosis and between human and machine intelligence and maybe 354 00:23:12.759 --> 00:23:22.839 solves the control problem and the usefulness problem. Un be 355 00:23:22.839 --> 00:23:23.920 pretty esoteric here, right. 356 00:23:23.920 --> 00:23:26.559 If this is it, we got it. 357 00:23:29.880 --> 00:23:31.960 Always you think out of the box. 358 00:23:32.799 --> 00:23:38.799 Your idea is so huge, you want to go to space. 359 00:23:39.160 --> 00:23:40.480 You decided to go to space. 360 00:23:40.559 --> 00:23:41.079 You did it. 361 00:23:41.519 --> 00:23:44.079 You decided that you want to You want to land 362 00:23:44.119 --> 00:23:49.680 your rocket back? You fail seven time, eight time, Yeah, 363 00:23:48.880 --> 00:23:50.640 and then landed. 364 00:23:50.720 --> 00:23:52.519 What care account? 365 00:23:54.519 --> 00:23:56.000 How do you come with this idea? 366 00:23:56.039 --> 00:24:00.759 Actually, sometimes they're pushing the human limit. You are always 367 00:24:00.799 --> 00:24:02.079 pushing the human limit. 368 00:24:02.599 --> 00:24:07.200 Why Well, I. 369 00:24:09.400 --> 00:24:13.799 Mean, I think about what technology solution is necessary in 370 00:24:13.880 --> 00:24:17.200 order to achieve the particular goal, and then try to 371 00:24:17.200 --> 00:24:20.079 make as much progress in that direction as possible. So 372 00:24:20.160 --> 00:24:24.119 in the case of spaceflight, the critical breakthrough this necessary 373 00:24:24.119 --> 00:24:28.960 and spaceflight is rapid and complete reusability of rockets, just 374 00:24:29.000 --> 00:24:32.519 as we have for aircraft. You can imagine that if 375 00:24:32.599 --> 00:24:37.039 an aircraft was single use, almost no one would would 376 00:24:37.079 --> 00:24:44.000 fly because you can buy like say seven seven might 377 00:24:44.079 --> 00:24:46.960 be two hundred and fifty million dollars, three hundred million 378 00:24:47.000 --> 00:24:48.599 dollars or something like that. You need two of them 379 00:24:48.640 --> 00:24:53.839 for a round trip, but nobody's going to pay millions 380 00:24:53.839 --> 00:24:57.720 of dollars per ticket to fly to do air travel. 381 00:24:59.160 --> 00:25:03.079 So but because you can reuse the aircraft tens of 382 00:25:03.079 --> 00:25:08.680 thousands of times, the air travel becomes much more affordable. 383 00:25:11.079 --> 00:25:13.720 And the same is true of rockets. So our rocket. 384 00:25:13.440 --> 00:25:17.160 Costs sixty million dollars roughly. 385 00:25:18.839 --> 00:25:21.839 So a capital cost if it can be used once 386 00:25:22.519 --> 00:25:27.279 is sixty million dollars. But if the capital cost if 387 00:25:27.319 --> 00:25:31.079 it can be used a thousand times is sixty thousand dollars. 388 00:25:32.799 --> 00:25:36.119 So then if you can carry a lot of people 389 00:25:36.160 --> 00:25:39.680 per flight, then you can get the cost of spaceflight 390 00:25:40.119 --> 00:25:43.359 to be something not far from the cost of airflight. 391 00:25:45.440 --> 00:25:46.880 So it's extremely fundamental. 392 00:25:48.000 --> 00:25:51.599 Because Earth's gravity well is quite deep, Earth has a 393 00:25:52.119 --> 00:25:56.759 relatively fairly high gravity, the difficulty of making a rocket 394 00:25:56.799 --> 00:26:01.000 reusable is much greater than the difficulty of making aircraft reusable, 395 00:26:01.640 --> 00:26:05.400 and that's why fully reasonable rocket has never been developed 396 00:26:05.400 --> 00:26:10.880 thus far. But if you use the most advanced materials, 397 00:26:11.119 --> 00:26:14.839 most advanced design techniques, and you get everything just right, 398 00:26:15.400 --> 00:26:16.480 then I'm confident that. 399 00:26:16.400 --> 00:26:18.839 You can do a fully reusable rocket. 400 00:26:19.839 --> 00:26:24.559 Fortunately, if first gravity was even ten percent stronger, I 401 00:26:24.559 --> 00:26:25.920