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<v Speaker 1>You are listening to Redefining Energy.

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<v Speaker 2>Your co hosts from Berlin Gerard Rein and from London

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<v Speaker 2>Lauren Saga. Today on Reallyfer and Energy, we're going to

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<v Speaker 2>talk about where to invest in energy transition.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't want to talk about this topic because you

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<v Speaker 1>didn't do it podcast.

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<v Speaker 2>Well now I'm doing it a podcast.

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<v Speaker 1>So there you become this investment girl, so you might

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<v Speaker 1>as well tell us about your topology and why it's

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<v Speaker 1>going to change the world.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I was invited a few weeks ago by Luca Peetti,

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<v Speaker 2>with the CEO of Texas Park and now his own podcast,

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<v Speaker 2>and I was very pleased and privileged to have a

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<v Speaker 2>good discussion with him around my investment thesis.

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<v Speaker 1>So go and let us know, tell us all about it.

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<v Speaker 2>It's all in the conversation. So let's listen to me

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<v Speaker 2>and Luca.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, very good, bring them out.

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<v Speaker 3>Laura, welcome to the show.

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<v Speaker 2>Welcome to your show. You've been already twice on our show,

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<v Speaker 2>and you're going to come soon. Always very popular episodes,

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<v Speaker 2>so I'm glad to be able to return a favor.

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<v Speaker 3>Thank you, Laura. In the anticipation of this show, today,

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<v Speaker 3>we were discussing about clean engine investments, your role in

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<v Speaker 3>that there's a lot of doom and gloom, especially here

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<v Speaker 3>in Europe. But what is personally exciting you in terms

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<v Speaker 3>of investments in Europe.

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<v Speaker 2>The investment that interests me are in a bit of

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<v Speaker 2>a gray zone between trading and infrastructure. Trading because I've

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<v Speaker 2>been a trader for more than ten years trading carbon electricity,

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<v Speaker 2>and that's a universe I'm very accustomed to. And of

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<v Speaker 2>course it's all digital, so that's number one. An infrastructure,

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<v Speaker 2>which is a very very big universe. The part which

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<v Speaker 2>interests me are more like a small infrastructure linked to energy,

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<v Speaker 2>which you can replicate and scale easily. And of course

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<v Speaker 2>I can go in the detail of both, but that's

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<v Speaker 2>generally my playground. If you arrive with a super technical innovation,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm lost because I'm not an engineer and I don't

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<v Speaker 2>like to be the guy around the table who doesn't

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<v Speaker 2>get a clue and surrounded by very enthusist people have

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<v Speaker 2>no idea what they're talking about.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, let's get specific. Most people think about energy transition,

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<v Speaker 3>clean engine investment, think of wind parks, toler investment. That's infrastructure,

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<v Speaker 3>as you mentioned, But maybe let's talk a bit about

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<v Speaker 3>the digital side. Where do you see opportunities or where

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<v Speaker 3>would you put your money?

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<v Speaker 2>Well? Have I put my money? So about six years

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<v Speaker 2>ago I had created a little platform where I was

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<v Speaker 2>brokering Toller Park wind Farms. The platform was very active

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<v Speaker 2>at a bit of monetizing it, and then I bump

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<v Speaker 2>into some young kids wheneverbody's a young kid, considering I'm

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<v Speaker 2>now more than sixty years old, up extraordinary RFP module

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<v Speaker 2>for PPA, and I decided to invest and let them grow,

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<v Speaker 2>and that became Zygo with GP Serda, and after a

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<v Speaker 2>few years we managed to exit and sell it to

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<v Speaker 2>Shlender Electric. And then one year later GP came back

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<v Speaker 2>to me and said, ook, I've got a new idea

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<v Speaker 2>for a new company. So his team was so good

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<v Speaker 2>and it was such a great on topnet that I

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<v Speaker 2>also invested in a new platform called Renewable, where we're

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<v Speaker 2>going to track and trade print certificate but hourly re certificates.

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<v Speaker 3>You mentioned to me a classification hierarchy how you look

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<v Speaker 3>at investments. Maybe it would be interesting just to learn

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<v Speaker 3>how you do that and how you would place those investments.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, that's probably my copy right. So I've got my

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<v Speaker 2>five categories from the lowers to the highers. The lowers

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<v Speaker 2>would be I would call aspirational. So you're selling a

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<v Speaker 2>product which is a bit of a service, which is

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<v Speaker 2>a nice to have like in zero or those type

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<v Speaker 2>of things you have to do that I'm not interested.

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<v Speaker 2>Then you get the upper level, which I called the shoehorn.

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<v Speaker 2>So the shoehorn is a concept where you have those

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<v Speaker 2>guys selling technologies with a big Excel sheet and they say, oh, okay,

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<v Speaker 2>Sola is going to do this, Wind is going to

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<v Speaker 2>do that, Butter is going to do this. Oh there's

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<v Speaker 2>a gap to go to zero, And of course they

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<v Speaker 2>try to plug, they try to shoe on their technologies.

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<v Speaker 2>And of course, because those technology that don't exist or

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<v Speaker 2>totally uneconomical, they require a crazy amount of subsidies. So

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<v Speaker 2>I'm going to list either gen SMRs, CCS, and I'm

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<v Speaker 2>not interested. If people want to burn money, good for

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<v Speaker 2>them making a green cement or green steel. It's very

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<v Speaker 2>very very difficult. So that I'm not interested. Then I

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<v Speaker 2>go up a notch. So number three is what I

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<v Speaker 2>call the compliance product. Complaints product is okay, it's the law.

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<v Speaker 2>You need to have it. Now, if you're this year

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<v Speaker 2>and smart, you can make the complaints much cheaper. And

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<v Speaker 2>somehow that's what Texa Park is doing, plus delivering other services.

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<v Speaker 2>And it's not just a regulatory compliance. You can be

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<v Speaker 2>market compliants marking your books and stuff like that. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>only interest I see in those products is when you

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<v Speaker 2>create such a database, such a client base, and it's

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<v Speaker 2>quite sticky, and people are just gonna come again and

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<v Speaker 2>again and again because they have to. And some of

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<v Speaker 2>those products are really excellent, provided there's not too much competition.

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<v Speaker 2>If I look at carbon accounting, there are the twenty

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<v Speaker 2>five software doing carbon accountings. That's probably nineteen too much.

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<v Speaker 3>At level three aspirational shoehorn compliance. So let's go one

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<v Speaker 3>type higher.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh that's the best one, right, not the second. Best

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<v Speaker 2>one's second. The best one is profitable. It's very simple.

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<v Speaker 2>There is this magic sentence in business, which is you

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<v Speaker 2>will see your money back in three years. And I

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<v Speaker 2>can tell you you can sell whatever thing you want

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<v Speaker 2>if the magic sentence, if you can convince that whoever

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<v Speaker 2>is buying that product's going to see the money back

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<v Speaker 2>in three years. And a certain way is Zigo was

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<v Speaker 2>a bit this idea that don't pay three hundred thousand

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<v Speaker 2>euro fees for a PPA. You know, you can get

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<v Speaker 2>a PPA below of fifty thousand, and it's all thanks

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<v Speaker 2>to digitization and so on. But look, anything that pays

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<v Speaker 2>itself in three years will sell. Don't arrive by saying okay,

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<v Speaker 2>this product is the shoehorn product or operational product to

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<v Speaker 2>say you'll see you back in three years. If you

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<v Speaker 2>can't sell a product where people are going to see

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<v Speaker 2>their money back in three years, what are you doing?

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<v Speaker 2>You know, what are you doing?

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<v Speaker 3>Final level?

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<v Speaker 2>Ah, the best well Salvation, Salvation, Salvation. You buy this product,

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<v Speaker 2>you're safe. If you don't buy this product, your factories

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<v Speaker 2>goes down, your grid goes down, you're out of a job,

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<v Speaker 2>you lose your bonus. That's not the chief operating officer

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<v Speaker 2>is the CFO or the CEO. I need that.

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<v Speaker 3>In the renewable space for that or the energy space.

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<v Speaker 2>TEXA pack has reached such a level that there are

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<v Speaker 2>now guys who come to see you know, oh it's

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<v Speaker 2>nice to have, or you know I should have that,

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<v Speaker 2>or maybe it's good say oh my god, I need

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<v Speaker 2>to have it because you know, my competitor have it

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<v Speaker 2>and I'm auditor skiing. So in fact, if I don't

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<v Speaker 2>buy it out of a job.

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<v Speaker 3>So what is the difference to compliance where you must

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<v Speaker 3>basically have a certain product the competition level.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's started by early movers. Then after you know,

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<v Speaker 2>you've got the main peloton if I use to the

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<v Speaker 2>post analogy, but then you've got your blackguards and those

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<v Speaker 2>guys have a choice.

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<v Speaker 3>Can you use this framework to classify let's say, as

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<v Speaker 3>an example, investing in a standalone solar park in Spain.

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<v Speaker 2>It has to be profitable. The question is how long

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<v Speaker 2>it's going to take to become profitable? If you look

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<v Speaker 2>at and I mean I love the industry of solar

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<v Speaker 2>developers or wind developers, but you have identified at Texa

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<v Speaker 2>Park the problem of containnabalization, capture prices and so on.

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<v Speaker 2>And I don't know there what thirty gigawad of solar

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<v Speaker 2>in Spain or something like this, and in Germany now

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<v Speaker 2>it's one hundred giga awad, which is absolutely crazy. And

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<v Speaker 2>the question is the value of an additional I would

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<v Speaker 2>say Vanila solar at some point whatever asset you put

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<v Speaker 2>on a grid as to create value for the system,

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<v Speaker 2>especially in Europe, because you ask your problem were in

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<v Speaker 2>Europe is that we're still with high prices. We are

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<v Speaker 2>still doing energy efficiency or closing unfortunately some plants, which

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<v Speaker 2>mean the demand has not picked up. Was in the US,

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<v Speaker 2>Now you have a system that's going again, especially with

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<v Speaker 2>data centers and AI. So the old US approached with

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<v Speaker 2>a transition is extremely different than in your because in

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<v Speaker 2>the US they have all that conucopy of gas which

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<v Speaker 2>is like support cheap was in your hope, we see

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<v Speaker 2>need to import it. So the question is not the same.

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<v Speaker 3>No, I agree on the adding value. And your friend

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<v Speaker 3>and co hosts from Redefining Energy Gerarity, he had the

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<v Speaker 3>term energy intelligence and this is what you need to

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<v Speaker 3>deliver today, not just a solar plant, but low system

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<v Speaker 3>costs and somehow a green profile which covers more than

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<v Speaker 3>just a solar profile. Maybe on the negative side, what

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<v Speaker 3>would upset you in the clean energy investment space?

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<v Speaker 2>What's upset me right now is the amount of money

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<v Speaker 2>of taxpayers money that's given to hydrogen which has a

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<v Speaker 2>track record of absolutely not working. And just lead the

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<v Speaker 2>report on by lobbyists and they don't do the basic

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<v Speaker 2>calculation that at the end of the day one dollar

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<v Speaker 2>per kilo hydrogenical a nine dollars and met you of gas. Okay,

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<v Speaker 2>So it means now they are targeting a five dollars

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<v Speaker 2>or five year old. That's forty five dollars and BT,

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<v Speaker 2>which means nothing to anybody. But if you multiply by six,

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<v Speaker 2>you can have the equivalent in the bile of oil.

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<v Speaker 2>And now we're talking about two hunrot and fifty dollars

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<v Speaker 2>oil per barrel. It's just too expensive. It's just too

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<v Speaker 2>expensive to use hydrogen as an energy source period. Plus

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<v Speaker 2>you can't storey, you can't move it. I mean as

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<v Speaker 2>well as batteries, really super superbolish in batteries. With the

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<v Speaker 2>price going down, you can have more and more use

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<v Speaker 2>of those batteries everywhere and pretty much where it goes.

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<v Speaker 2>It's eating into gas. Gas was supposed to balance everything,

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<v Speaker 2>and the gas plants are going to run less and less,

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<v Speaker 2>but they will shot more and more those few hours

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<v Speaker 2>that they will run.

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<v Speaker 3>You also coined the statement of the energy transition is

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<v Speaker 3>down deal by deal. Would you still stick to that

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<v Speaker 3>or are we at the point of the transition hours

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<v Speaker 3>back to Europe where we need regulatory policy changes or

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<v Speaker 3>can we just let market players do their stuff?

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, I greatori, I mean we've got a telephone

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<v Speaker 2>book every months of new regulation. I think you hope

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<v Speaker 2>should regulate a bit less. Now if I'm being a

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<v Speaker 2>bit cynicl and I look at the zones where you

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<v Speaker 2>have growth in energy and growth of pin energy. You

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<v Speaker 2>have two zones. One is China, and I guess nobody

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<v Speaker 2>wants to do it the Chinese way. But you have

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<v Speaker 2>Texas and Texas which is not run by leftist in

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<v Speaker 2>any shape or form. But the development is even faster

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<v Speaker 2>than California, which is supposed to be politically more aligned

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<v Speaker 2>with goals. And why it's because they're de regulated. And

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<v Speaker 2>then for instance, they have a system of connecting to

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<v Speaker 2>the grid which is basically okay, you connect at your

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<v Speaker 2>own risk and then we'll manage it afterwards, whereas the

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<v Speaker 2>old system of regulation and permitting in Europe is a

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<v Speaker 2>bit antiquated. So in fact we are losing time just

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<v Speaker 2>filling papers.

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<v Speaker 3>I agree, And coming a bit to the end to

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<v Speaker 3>the show, is there anything you want to plug which

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<v Speaker 3>keeps you motivated going on in the clean energy investment space?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah? With Jerrard we have done. Three years ago we

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<v Speaker 2>invested in a rooftop slam stall in Germany. We've been

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<v Speaker 2>pretty lucky in term of timing because we came in

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<v Speaker 2>we had fourteen employees and we managed to exit at

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<v Speaker 2>three hundred employees, and I think the value was multiplied

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<v Speaker 2>by five or six. So we're quite fortunate, especially now

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<v Speaker 2>that the market is going down. It was an extraordinary

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<v Speaker 2>entrepreneurial adventure with a great team in Manaim always an anecdote.

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<v Speaker 2>I have talking to Daniel and I said, I mean

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<v Speaker 2>your system is so, you know, wonderfully organized. So you

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<v Speaker 2>have planned to export and I say, oh, yeah, yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>we are considering export market and I say, which one?

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<v Speaker 2>Verya Otherwise, the big horizons are the cable across the Atlantic.

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<v Speaker 2>Now that's a long term dream, but we gather more

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<v Speaker 2>and more support. Now it's going to take fifteen years.

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<v Speaker 2>But I think it's really neat that you need to

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<v Speaker 2>have some strategic assets, which are balancing assets, because when

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<v Speaker 2>you have a Dunkel floater or when you have negative prices,

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<v Speaker 2>it doesn't make any sense to try to manage those

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<v Speaker 2>by hydrogen or you know, nuke or whatever. I love hydro,

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<v Speaker 2>but the number of potential sites are very limited, so

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<v Speaker 2>it makes a lot of sense. We have created, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>a website called need to l dot org if you

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<v Speaker 2>can want to overlook. So right now it's a bit

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<v Speaker 2>of a concept, but we get out of support and

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<v Speaker 2>technically look, the longest interconnector right now, so SA is

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<v Speaker 2>between England and Denmark with the Viking Link eight hundred

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<v Speaker 2>kilometers with a loss of two percent. So going to

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<v Speaker 2>America is we need two times five. But when you

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<v Speaker 2>talk to Itachi, when you talk to Prismian or g

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<v Speaker 2>they say tough, but do ever in the ground scheme

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<v Speaker 2>of things is going to be six times cheaper than

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<v Speaker 2>a new Clubland. Yeah, we're working on that. We see

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<v Speaker 2>where it goes.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and it fits very well with another saying that

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<v Speaker 3>no transition without transmission or absolutely how it fits very well. Norah,

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<v Speaker 3>thanks a lot for coming on the first show of

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<v Speaker 3>this year. I wish you a great day.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you very much.

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<v Speaker 1>I must have bitch, Laura. I like your phraseology you

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<v Speaker 1>horr salvation. I like us. I mean like what you

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<v Speaker 1>smoke a drugs or something when you came up with

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<v Speaker 1>our southist.

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<v Speaker 2>At least if some investors are this framework in mind,

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<v Speaker 2>they would not have put that much money into hydrogen

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<v Speaker 2>or sm mor or nuclear fusion or CCS or those

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<v Speaker 2>type of things. You need to concentrate your investment where

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<v Speaker 2>there are currently problems that we know and solve the problems.

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<v Speaker 2>When your problem is okay, we need more capacity. You

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<v Speaker 2>need to invest in transmission, you need to invest into batteries,

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<v Speaker 2>because these solutions exists today and they can fix problem today.

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<v Speaker 2>And I can understand people get very excited about tomorrow's

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<v Speaker 2>problem theoretical, but you have problem today and the problem

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<v Speaker 2>we need to fix them now. Not a lot of inspiration,

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<v Speaker 2>but a lot of perspiration. That's the way I see it.

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<v Speaker 1>I know you're right. I've always been captivated by the

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<v Speaker 1>aspiration the dreamers. We need the dream. But I don't

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<v Speaker 1>know if you make any money by investing in the aspirational.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and again, certain investment can change from category to

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<v Speaker 2>the other. Look, if you want to develop the stabiliation fuel,

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<v Speaker 2>is it a shoehorn? Is it as pirational? Because you

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<v Speaker 2>want to have green flights. It's starting to become compliance

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<v Speaker 2>in your hope that you need to blend a certain percentage.

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<v Speaker 2>And at what point it's going to become profitable, I

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<v Speaker 2>don't know. But salvation, Yeah, if the penalties are very high,

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<v Speaker 2>definitely that's a purchase you have to do. Yeah, the

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<v Speaker 2>typology is interesting, but sometimes the lines between different categories

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<v Speaker 2>are a bit blur. Now there are some stuff like

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<v Speaker 2>you're going to be in a zero, you're going to

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<v Speaker 2>have green products that I think the ship has said.

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<v Speaker 1>I like it around actually believe or not. I think

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<v Speaker 1>it's actually I'm gonna actually look at my own portfolio

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<v Speaker 1>and my own in lessons with the ion and we'll

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<v Speaker 1>see what We'll see what comes of it, and we'll.

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<v Speaker 2>Have a chat about it next year.

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<v Speaker 1>Right if I have a good year.

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<v Speaker 2>Or a bad year, Okay, but don't count on me because,

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<v Speaker 2>as you say, very bad at predictions. Okay, job, talk

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<v Speaker 2>to you next week. You look forward to.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you for listening to Redefining Energy.

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<v Speaker 3>Don't forget to rate the show and subscribe on Apple podcast,

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<v Speaker 3>Spotify for the platform of your choice.