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Speaker 1: Which I would describe as deflation or the attempted deflation

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of credit based assets and the rise and the inflation

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of commodity based prices.

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Speaker 2: So you're you're going to see things.

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Speaker 1: That are that are driven by you know, large moves

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and credit that are driven by large credit impulse, housing,

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you know, cars, you got all those prices are going

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to be coming down where at the same time, we're

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going to see, you know, the during the reorganization of

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the economy, we're going to see an upward demand put

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on strapped commodity supply chain. So we should see commodity

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price inflation and credit asset based deflation. That's the way

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I think of stagflation.

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Speaker 3: You're listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network, where you

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00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:45,759
get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to

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00:00:45,960 --> 00:00:49,960
thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival

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00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:54,719
Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot

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00:00:54,759 --> 00:00:59,079
com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival

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Network now more than ever.

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Speaker 4: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial

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Survival Network. I'm your host, Kerrie Letz got a special

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guest for you today, someone who is very steeped in

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the understanding of the economy, of global power, structures of

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the rivalries that are taking place now, both economically politically geopolitically.

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His name is Tom Luongo and you find him at

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Tom Luogo. That's t O M l u O n

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g O dot n E. And this blog is gold,

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Goats and Guns, and Tom, I know you have experience

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with all three. You started out life as a chemist

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and now look at you.

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Speaker 2: Well, you know now I'm just fifty seven and cranky.

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I got this good. So it says like after years

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of all of it, you know, what are you gonna do?

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Speaker 1: Like you just watch the world do watch the traffic

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splash by geopolitically and you're like, how can you not

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be cranky?

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Speaker 2: Right? So thank you for Kerry hey hey.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, Well, as we get older, our filters tend

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to dissolve, right, And we're much more likely you are

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and I am to actually say what's on our mind

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without a lot of buffering and a lot of backtracking.

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Speaker 2: Right, Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I mean it was funny when I first went to

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work for Newsmax back in twenty thirteen, very early on, I.

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Speaker 2: Called the EU the Fourth Reich.

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Speaker 1: My editor kind of looked at me and went, you

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can't say that. I'm like, but it's true, Like, but

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you can't say that. I'm like, Okay, I'll be right

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about that eventually, just so you edit what you edit

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out what you need to edit out. But I you know,

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the draft still went in calling me you the fourth Reich.

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So you know, I've never had much of a filter,

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Caerry to be honest with you. It gets me in

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the trouble more than anything else. I'll be honest with you.

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From about the time I'm nine years old, my dad

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looking at me, going, son, your mouth is going to

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get you into a lot of trouble in this life.

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I'm like, yeah, Dad, Oh well, I don't want any

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other way.

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Speaker 4: To be so exactly my story here, but maybe a

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little more diplomatic than yourself. So we talk about hidden

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factions and global finance rival back banking factions.

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Speaker 2: What does that mean exactly? And who are these people?

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Speaker 1: Well, you know, let's start with the you know, the

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big question is and this is something that they do.

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I cover a lot with my good friend Alix Kraner

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when we do podcasts together, which is that over time

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we've just come to like when we watched the I

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didn't come to this conclusion yesterday or the day before.

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It's been building as a kind of an evolving thing

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over the last you know, or twenty years of my life.

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But reality is that there's this group of global as

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you want to call them Davos, you want to call

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them the City of London, you want to call them

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the Row Trials, you call him whatever you want, with

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all reflections of the same thing, which is the old

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colonialist banking powers of old Europe that you know, have

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nominally set the direction for the global economy for hundreds

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of years. And you know, it just morphs and changes

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over time, and and we we see reflections of it

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as we move along. So we're at a moment. I

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think we're at a very interesting moment in time over

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these these centuries where they've unfortunately for them, had to

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cut so many other people in on the grift that

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now those people are strong enough to say, you know what,

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we don't want to live like that anymore. What I

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mean by that is that you look at the United States,

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you look at China, it's very obvious that at some

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point that they decided to take when during you know,

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the periods being World Wars One.

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Speaker 2: And World War Two.

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Speaker 1: They moved all their capital into the United States to

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build it up into an industrial powerhouse to then fight

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World War Two, and the goal being of course to

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destroy the Russians and and and all of that. And

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then in the aftermath of that, we then wound up

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with an industrial powerhouse in the United States. But amazingly,

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we went from a non interventionist foreign policy, not much

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those central bank, no no foreign policy to speak of

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in the nineteenth century, and now by the end of

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the twentieth century it adopted Britain's foreign policy, Britain's monetary system,

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Britain's tax policy, Britain's this, Britain's I mean, it's all

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the same thing. We are indistinguishable from them, and we've

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embraced empire.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: I used to be one of those critics of the

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United States, is the American quote unquote imperial system. I

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still am, but I also realized that it's not really

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our doing. So the goal then, in my mind, was

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that what they would do is they would use the

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United States like they always they go into a place,

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their locusts. These people they're not they don't build things.

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They only build something up in order to strip mine

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it later. So that's the colonial's mindset, doesn't matter if

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it's Africa or the least, or Canada or the United States.

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And then once it's done and they've they've used, they've

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used it up, they then take all the money that

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they've stolen and they move it somewhere else and they

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go strip mind that place. And clearly that place was

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supposed to be China, and they put all their money

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into China in the nineteen nineties and early aughts and

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everything else. And then they were looking at pull the

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plug in the United States two thousand and eight financial

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crisis forward zero bound interest rates to fill preserve all

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of that stuff that we all lived through. And funny

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thing happened on the way to that liquidation. The Russians

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refused to be liquidated. They've brought brought Vadimir Putin too

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power in two thousand and they stood up and said no.

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The Chinese eventually brought Cheese and Ping.

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Speaker 2: To power in order to cut the old.

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Speaker 1: Ark control out of the nass and old Ark community

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in China out.

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Speaker 2: That's why she was brought to power.

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Speaker 1: And you know, by twenty sixteen, we got the end

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of of the Obama administration, and the American people said,

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do you know what this guy Trump, We're going with

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him because these other people, we don't want to live

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under like this anymore. So the dual moment of break

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in the UK and the election of Trump in twenty

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sixteen was really the moment that six month period where

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their whole model kind of started to collapse. And that's when,

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you know, I was at that point, right around that

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point that I was. I finished my first sent with

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Newsmax and I had to go independence. When I started

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Gold Goats and Guns in twenties, UV Andean a little

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freer to be able to talk just you know, news

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Max has their editorial bent, and you know, I have

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to respect that they're the ones paying the bills. And

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it wasn't all it wasn't a big ideological divide. It

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was just there's certain things I wasn't really all to

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talk about, which is fine. But you know, once that

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once that started, you started to see the once breaksit

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and Trump occurred, you saw the big mask off moment

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really begin or you started to see these people have

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to come out from behind the woodwork and out themselves.

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Speaker 2: As no no, no, this old rules base order, this

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is all US. It's not the United States.

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Speaker 1: But they have tried to blame the United States for everything.

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So and you and you saw this, you know coming,

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and so now we have a real functional I think

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we have a functional split. By the end of the

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time we get to the end of the first Trump administration,

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I think it's becomes very obvious that Wall Street and

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City of London are not on the same page anymore.

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There's aspects of Wall Street that are still embedded with

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you know, old City of London, Europe, whatnot, Luxembourg, all

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of that, but there are other aspects of Wall Street

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that are not down with that at all.

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Speaker 2: And in my mind, and I've talked about.

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Speaker 1: This and you know for years now, it feels like

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here's that it was the implementation of the security overnight

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financing rate by the Fed during the first Trump administration

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that began the process, so that by the time we

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get to powell second term, he starts raising interest rates.

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He's got he's changed the dead indexing rate of the

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United States away from a City of London focused live

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or to a US repo domestic repo market focused collateralized

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rate known as Sofur and that has changed the dynamics

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so that now for the first time, literally two hundred

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and fifty years of the United States as a country

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having control over the wris own monetary policy. Because even

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previous to the Central Bank, previous to the Federal Reserve,

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the trade flows between the US and Europe were so

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imbalanced that they were, you know, under the old gold

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standard that was still being manipulated by you know, our

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politics and our and our banking system were absolutely being

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manipulated by you know, that those imbalances and our politics

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were being manipulated by those in balances. And I've come

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to understand this solely as I've gone down this rabbit

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hole over time.

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Speaker 2: I have traced all this stuff.

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Speaker 1: I've talked to people, you know, I've talked to a

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lot of people over the years who have pointed me

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in the right direction, and it's kind of synthesized all this.

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So that's where I think we are now. I think

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we're really at this kind of divorce moment. And you know,

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I've said this a few times in my.

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Speaker 2: Life, and I'll say it again here. I'll reiterate it here.

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Speaker 1: Is like it reminds me of the an interview given

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by an old Chinese foreign minister back I think it

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was during the Vietnam War, he said, you know who.

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They asked, He's like, what do you think of the

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French Revolution? And he said, well, it's too a real

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way to tell. And I kind of feel the same

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way now about the American Revolution. It's it's still ongoing.

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It's been ongoing for two hundred and fifty years, and

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we're getting very close to that divorce moment. And everything

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that we're seeing in the geopolitical space, everything, all the

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all the conflicts and the and the culture war and

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the immigration and this, it's all reflection of this of this,

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you know, attempt by the United States and other countries,

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Russia and China in particular, to divorce themselves in the

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old European colonial system. And it's, you know, it's why

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they hate Trump because Trump clearly we saw this, you know,

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in his own way, you know. And I don't say

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that the try Donald Trump of twenty fifteen or twenty

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sixteen understands the game like he does today in twenty

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twenty five. No, he made a lot of mistakes in

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this first term, and it was very easy for him

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to be be marginalized. It's very easy to go look

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back on that and go, yeah, but Trump was ineffectual

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in this first term because he didn't you know, you

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need anything done. Well, I agree, but you know it's

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like everything else, people learn and evolve and change as

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they have to go through and fight. You know, this

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this process is war. And then he literally has been

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fighting war against these people. So that's what I that's

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where I think the game board lay is now, and

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it really is Wall Street versus for lack of a

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better term, city of London. And you know, and when

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you kind of view it from that perspective, and again

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you don't have to agree with me, but at the

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very least entertain the idea and then start looking at

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the game board and start looking at the way people

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are moving, and you're like, maybe there's more validity to

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that than it sounds off the you know, you know,

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off the coffin is the first time you and I

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have ever spoken. I've been saying this stuff for years now,

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but you know, it's one of those things that when

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you know, when I come to a different audience, I

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have to kind of go back through all the the

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to go kind of back over the primitives of where

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I've come from. Uh, in that journey, it's it's it's

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a important Ultimately, I'm trying to shut off a hold

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on just a second, be shut this down so it's

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not making any noise.

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Speaker 2: Uh you go.

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Speaker 1: Away, Yeah, okay, there you go, Sorry about that. That's

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you know that you see it that way, right, and

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then once you start to like, once you start to

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see it that way and you start feel like fill

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in the bits and pieces, all of a sudden, you're like,

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that has more predictive power, That has more explanatory power

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than the old model of Well, it's just the evil

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United States Empire of chaos running around the world like

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like Rambo without a drogstrap, trying to you know, defend

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the dollar. That story is really played. It's it's got

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some truth to it, but it's also not the only truth, right.

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I Mean, the world is deed allarizing, the world is

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breaking up into regional economic blocks. But I don't think

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the United States, like, I don't think Trump is fighting that,

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to be honest with you, I think what he's doing

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is just negotiating how much of the pie he's gonna have,

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We're gonna have once the divorce decree is completed, and

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that's a.

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Speaker 2: That's where I am.

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Speaker 1: And hopefully we bankrupt the old European system of child

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trafficking and drug running and regime change wars and all

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the rest of it, and you know, we we move

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into a different age where that's a far less prevalent

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part of our politics and part of our national politics

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for our geopolitics, and with any luck, that's what we'll

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wind up with and we'll leave the world with at

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the end of this period of history.

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Speaker 2: That's what I think is that's.

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Speaker 1: What I hope for sor right here we arguing sadly

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in the day after Charlie Kirk got shot, like he's

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going to wind up being either a martyr or a flashpoint.

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Speaker 4: So this entire process, we're both so getting back to calls.

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You know, we're both the good friends with Martin Armstrong

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and you know this book with him, The World according

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to Martin Armstrong. So you had some forecast of your

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own the percent.

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Speaker 2: Rate and gold going way higher. Where are you with

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what you're.

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Speaker 4: Looking towards into the future.

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Speaker 1: Sure, so I go back and remind everybody that you know,

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again there's I'm not like busting my hand, patting myself

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on the back or anything. But back in twenty twenty two,

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I said, if I'm right about Powell being, you know,

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trying to drain the world, if to drain the off

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four dollar system, of the euro dollar system of all

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of its liquidity, this post COVID liquidity and honestly the

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posts zerp and nerp yeers of liquidity, then he's going

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to raise interest rates hard and we're going to find

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out under saufur just how much the United States economy

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can handle relative to the rest of the world of

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global economy. And we found out, I said, you know, flippantly,

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and like back in early twenty twenty two, when I

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get fire Powell, I'd raise race to six percent. Well,

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he got the five and a half right, and he

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held him there for over year five and a half

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and I was kind of impressive. And now we're here,

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we are four and a half percent. We're week out

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from the next FMC meeting. The CBI just came out

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hot this morning, and I look at you know, where

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we've been, and we've been in a kind of commodity

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cost push environment inflation wise, since you know, power sort

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of braising rates, and that's just kind of tied to

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the price of gasoline. You know, the change in gasoline

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relatives to the change to the directional change in the

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price of gasoline on a month to month basis correlates

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very nicely with a four month overall change in the CPI.

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Interestingly enough, today we finally got like the first real

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data point where the two are moving in the opposite direction.

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If you dig into the CPI numbers, you'll see that

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all these data centers for AEI are starting to come

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online and electricity costs are dominating. Gasoline prices are down

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six point six percent month year over year, but electricity

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costs are up thirteen percent. You know, other energy, natural

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gas prices, pipe gas or energy prices are up by

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eight percent, blah blah blah blah.

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Speaker 2: And so that's what contributed to this.

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Speaker 1: We might be getting into an area where gasoline and

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UH inflation see as measured by the CPI, are starting

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to shift.

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Speaker 2: Now what does that mean.

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Speaker 1: It means that we may be and I will need

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a couple more months worth of data on this, but

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we may be in a moment where we're starting to

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either move into a real honesty, got stagflationary environment, which

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I would describe as deflation or the attempted deflation of

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credit based assets and the rise and the inflation of

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commodity based prices.

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Speaker 2: So you're you're going to see things.

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Speaker 1: That are that are driven by you know, large moves

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and credit that are driven by large credit impulse, housing,

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you know, cars, all those prices are going to be

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coming down, where at the same time we're going to see,

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you know, during the reorganization of the economy, we're going

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to see an upward demand put on strapped commodity supply chain,

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So we should see commodity price inflation and credit asset

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based deflation. That's the way I think of stagflation. That

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may be one scenario. The other scenario is that Trump

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is at is that we've actually gone through the stagflation,

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which I mean again, and I'm just throwing an idea

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out here. I'm not telling you what I believe. I'm

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saying these are the two environments. Or we've already been

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through most of the stagflation, and we're getting ready in

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Q one or Q two of next year to put

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move into a demand pull environment where demand really is

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going to start pulling prices higher, and once that happens,

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traditionally there is no correlation between the price of gasoline

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and CPI inflation because they don't correlate directly to They

355
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don't correlate directly at that point because the demand for

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money is and demand for credit are.

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Speaker 2: You know, they're just.

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Speaker 1: They're not tied to, you know, whatever the price of

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the pump is, because people don't care.

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Speaker 2: They're making money.

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Speaker 1: They'll they'll pay whatever they want the price of gasoline,

362
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so pricey gasoline can fluctuate, and you know, CPI inflation

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will do whatever it wants.

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Speaker 2: And you can see this clearly in the data.

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Speaker 1: If you take that basic study that I've been using

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now for a while, and you go back and you

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chart at like, you know, eight, nine, ten years, you'll

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see periods of commodity cost push inflation, you know, tie

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the CPI and gas together nicely, and then you know

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periods you know when we're not there, something that completely different.

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So what do I see for right going forward to

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finish answering the question, is I expect the FED to

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cut race. They'll probably before the CPI print. I was

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fully on board with a fifty basis point cut.

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Speaker 2: Next week.

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Speaker 1: Why because I was still thinking, well, you know, gaslink

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prices last month, we're down. Therefore, the CPI is going

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to come in weaker than expected. Therefore, with that, plus

379
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all the labor data that's coming out, the labor revisions,

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Powell's going to you know, and him changing and get riding,

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getting rid of the two percent inflation targeting mechanism. That

382
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he's probably going to cut fifty and do exactly kind

383
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of what he did last year. Cut fifty, then twenty five,

384
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twenty five coming into the end of the year, maybe

385
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cut one more time in March before or February, before

386
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he leaves, exits the scene, let somebody else take over.

387
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Now I'm thinking he's probably only going to go twenty five,

388
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you know what I mean, And that should be your

389
00:18:57,079 --> 00:19:02,039
base case. If you surprises everybody with fifty, that'd be interesting, right,

390
00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:05,200
But I think twenty five and then maybe we'll see

391
00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:07,440
a fifty later on. Again, it all depends. I think

392
00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:09,200
it depends. Remember, the Fed likes to look at.

393
00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:09,880
Speaker 2: The PC deflator.

394
00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:12,680
Speaker 1: They don't necessarily look at the CPI, but they kind

395
00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:15,559
of do look at the CPI. So and we'll see

396
00:19:15,599 --> 00:19:19,319
what happens when the PC deflator comes out. But that's

397
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about where I am there. And then for gold, gold

398
00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:24,039
just broke out of a four and a half month

399
00:19:24,079 --> 00:19:27,920
basing pattern and we've got geopolitical tensions rising.

400
00:19:28,039 --> 00:19:30,079
Speaker 2: This is a This is like cribbing directly from Martin

401
00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:30,519
arm Fruyk.

402
00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:32,640
Speaker 1: Marty and I talked about as many times as we

403
00:19:32,720 --> 00:19:37,079
agree that gold, you know, likes to move on, you know,

404
00:19:37,279 --> 00:19:39,960
like gold likes to move higher on geopolitical.

405
00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:43,240
Speaker 2: Risks, and then bank that that move higher.

406
00:19:44,440 --> 00:19:48,920
Speaker 1: Because of higher anchored inflation money printing that happened because

407
00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:52,440
of geopolitical risks. Yeah, the fact, you know, geopolitical risk

408
00:19:52,480 --> 00:19:55,359
sends gold higher, and then gold holds onto those gains

409
00:19:55,599 --> 00:19:57,559
once we have to deal with the inflation that came

410
00:19:57,599 --> 00:20:02,000
from all of the the money and the political shnanigans.

411
00:20:02,079 --> 00:20:04,279
And that's kind of how gold goes. So I so

412
00:20:04,319 --> 00:20:07,839
look at this, this breakout here in gold. It is

413
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:10,680
just getting started. I can see a move here between

414
00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:11,880
now and the end of the year to forty two

415
00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:14,640
forty three hundred dollars now with very little problem. Of course,

416
00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:16,039
I can see them trying to put the kabash on

417
00:20:16,039 --> 00:20:19,039
it and stop at four grand. But let's I think

418
00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:22,119
forty two to forty three hundred on an overshoot and

419
00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:25,279
a potential panic cycle before the end of the year.

420
00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:28,079
That makes some sense, especially if we start to really

421
00:20:28,079 --> 00:20:31,680
see a Sopoware deck crisis emerge in Europe and or Ukraine,

422
00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:36,559
and you know, somehow something happens in Ukraine that escalates

423
00:20:36,599 --> 00:20:39,400
things another level. So that's what I'm saying for those

424
00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:40,519
two things, That's what I'm saying.

425
00:20:41,319 --> 00:20:46,960
Speaker 4: So silver, yeah up big. We're talking forty one and

426
00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:51,319
a half bucks. And now it's is silver gonna dramatically

427
00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:52,359
outperform goal?

428
00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:54,680
Speaker 2: Not right yet?

429
00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:58,920
Speaker 1: I still remember Kerrie, I'm I'm a really big advocate

430
00:20:59,039 --> 00:21:01,200
of the idea that's so has to now prove itself

431
00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:03,920
that it's a monetary metal and not an industrial one.

432
00:21:04,039 --> 00:21:06,720
And so because of I look at the price of silver,

433
00:21:06,759 --> 00:21:08,400
and I see the volatility and silver I see the

434
00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:09,640
way trays and the thing else.

435
00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:10,079
Speaker 2: I'm not saying.

436
00:21:10,279 --> 00:21:12,279
Speaker 1: I'm not against silver, mind you doing the same thing,

437
00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:16,079
But I see silver similar to the way I see copper.

438
00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:19,000
Copper got I see you know, everybody calls it doctor

439
00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:22,160
Copper because it's a nice leading indicator of the change

440
00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:26,039
in the industrial economy. The base load for need for electricity. Well,

441
00:21:26,839 --> 00:21:29,920
I think silver is the it's kind of doctor silver

442
00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:33,640
for technology because silver is so necessary for so much

443
00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:36,680
of the technology that we all, you know, live with

444
00:21:36,759 --> 00:21:39,240
on a day to day basis that you know that

445
00:21:39,319 --> 00:21:42,160
demand is so strong that looking at silver as the

446
00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:46,960
leading indicator for the technology economy versus the industrial economy,

447
00:21:47,599 --> 00:21:49,960
and you know, knowing that there's not a lot of

448
00:21:50,759 --> 00:21:53,839
monetary demand for silver, this and this is born out

449
00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:55,440
over time when you look at the gold of silver

450
00:21:55,519 --> 00:21:58,119
ratio and then I have this, I have a I

451
00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:00,440
have a thirty year chart something like that amost thirty

452
00:22:00,519 --> 00:22:03,000
year chart of the price of silver monthly closing price

453
00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:07,200
of silver and silver to gold ratio over time, and it,

454
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:10,720
you know, does this. But the slope is upward. The

455
00:22:10,839 --> 00:22:13,200
ratio is upward. It was in the fifties, back in

456
00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:16,119
the nineteen nineties. Now it averages. Now, it oscillates around

457
00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:19,039
eighty eighty two, and it's continuing to go higher. Now,

458
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:22,519
at some point gold gets too expensive and the gold

459
00:22:22,559 --> 00:22:25,200
and silver ratio is insane, or it might you know

460
00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:29,000
that that may change, but as of right now, you know,

461
00:22:29,759 --> 00:22:32,519
this is one of those things you that upward slope

462
00:22:32,559 --> 00:22:34,680
of the gold and silver ratio. And the farther it

463
00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:37,440
gets away from natural abundance ratios, the more you have

464
00:22:37,519 --> 00:22:41,880
to see gold asserting itself as a monetary asset, silver

465
00:22:42,559 --> 00:22:45,000
asserting itself as an industrial asset.

466
00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:48,680
Speaker 2: And you know, and you know when the silver the

467
00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:49,640
gold ratio.

468
00:22:49,759 --> 00:22:53,480
Speaker 1: Relative to the current set of opinions about the two

469
00:22:53,519 --> 00:22:57,000
metals gets out of whack, that's when you see silver

470
00:22:57,079 --> 00:22:58,960
catch up the gold or gold catch up the silver

471
00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:02,039
and the peak and the troth and the goals of

472
00:23:02,079 --> 00:23:05,000
silver ratio is always tied to some major geopolitical event.

473
00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:08,440
That's the other thing I you know, I have also

474
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:11,359
another tendency now is is just like look at certain

475
00:23:11,519 --> 00:23:15,599
important markets like bond spreads between say the United States

476
00:23:15,599 --> 00:23:19,720
and Germany, or or the goal of silver ratio or

477
00:23:19,759 --> 00:23:21,759
something along those on. And this starts sitting back and

478
00:23:21,799 --> 00:23:24,160
going and looking at the timing and going, oh, look

479
00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:26,039
on that day, that was the day of the Bank

480
00:23:26,039 --> 00:23:29,279
of Japan, you know, killed the the again and carry trade.

481
00:23:29,279 --> 00:23:31,880
And that's the day that you know, Biden crapped the

482
00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:35,279
bed at the at the debate versus Trump, and that's

483
00:23:35,319 --> 00:23:38,359
the day that you know, Liz Trust was deposed as

484
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:39,799
and was opposed.

485
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:41,039
Speaker 2: As the Prime Minister England.

486
00:23:41,039 --> 00:23:44,039
Speaker 1: And it's said very Martin Armstrong kind of an analysis,

487
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:46,000
but I don't have I don't use cycles to do this.

488
00:23:46,079 --> 00:23:48,720
I just look at the historical data over and look

489
00:23:48,759 --> 00:23:51,319
at very important markets and then just kind of tie

490
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:56,000
them to important events and then you know, and use

491
00:23:56,079 --> 00:23:58,279
those as kind of signals that maybe things are getting

492
00:23:58,279 --> 00:24:00,279
out of whack. One of the interesting things that I've

493
00:24:00,279 --> 00:24:03,799
been looking at recently is the ten year Italian German

494
00:24:03,839 --> 00:24:07,960
bond spread, right, because Germany is nominally the safe haven

495
00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:12,200
asset of Europe, right, and I've been charting it versus

496
00:24:12,279 --> 00:24:12,920
the US.

497
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,079
Speaker 2: I've been turning the US.

498
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:17,440
Speaker 1: German ten and two year bond spread on a day

499
00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:19,799
to day basis for like five years. So it's kind

500
00:24:19,799 --> 00:24:22,440
of an obsessive, compulsive thing, and you know it is

501
00:24:22,519 --> 00:24:24,519
watching it because you can watch how Christina le Guard

502
00:24:24,839 --> 00:24:26,960
at the ECB has been kind of trying to maintain

503
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:29,799
credit spreads in order to keep the interest rate derivative

504
00:24:29,839 --> 00:24:32,160
markets from exploding and then taking all the banks down

505
00:24:32,319 --> 00:24:35,680
makes perfect sense, and it's also a measure of safe

506
00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:39,000
haven status of what does the world think, what is

507
00:24:39,039 --> 00:24:43,359
a more powerful safe haven asset, Is it the US

508
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:45,960
treasury or is it the German bund You know, it

509
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:50,359
gives you a kind of a look a snapshot of

510
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:53,519
where global capital's head is as to where they what

511
00:24:53,559 --> 00:24:56,359
they think of the political stability of Europe versus.

512
00:24:56,039 --> 00:24:56,799
Speaker 2: The United States.

513
00:24:57,200 --> 00:25:00,400
Speaker 1: Well, then when you go one step further, interestingly, over

514
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:03,480
the course of the last year, since it became obvious

515
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:05,440
three year and a half that Donald Trump was going

516
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:09,880
to become president, the German Italian bond spread or the

517
00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:14,119
Italian German bondspread has collapsed. And where you know, Italian

518
00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:15,960
debt was trading at like one hundred and sixty hundred

519
00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:18,720
and seventy basis points higher than you know, German debt

520
00:25:18,759 --> 00:25:21,160
at the ten year benchmark level. Now it's like eighty

521
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:25,920
basis points, right. But every time there was a spike higher,

522
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:28,720
it was tied to some big event. And I know

523
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:31,680
like twelve of them that came out of this and

524
00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:35,960
they were all, you know, something happened, a major event happened,

525
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:39,000
and Christill le Guard at the ECB had to furiously

526
00:25:39,039 --> 00:25:43,640
scramble to hold German button price, you know, the prop

527
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:47,920
up German button prices, and thereby you know, blow the

528
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:50,319
spread out versus the Italians, and then it would immediate

529
00:25:50,319 --> 00:25:52,160
and then once we were past that, they would, you know,

530
00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:56,559
the the downtrend would continue. What this means, the overall

531
00:25:56,559 --> 00:25:59,359
trend is is that Italy is being moved into the

532
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:03,640
position to become the safe haven asset of Europe or

533
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:08,599
independent of the EU versus Germany. It's kind of the

534
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:11,680
tale of two core economies and they're kind of moving

535
00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:14,839
in different directions. And with the return of Trump to

536
00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:19,000
power and his clear preference of Georgia Maloney and backing

537
00:26:19,039 --> 00:26:23,799
of Georgia Maloney versus Germany, France and everybody else and

538
00:26:23,839 --> 00:26:26,640
the rest of the EU, it's very clear that Italy

539
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:32,359
is now being positioned as the fulcrum on which the

540
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:37,400
future of the EU rests. Wow and and a little

541
00:26:37,519 --> 00:26:40,480
at a small geopolitic, final geopolitical code to this, which

542
00:26:40,519 --> 00:26:44,599
is that of all the countries in Europe, Italy has

543
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:49,599
the most American military basis by far. This is true

544
00:26:50,079 --> 00:26:52,559
interest science. It's like one hundred bases. We have like

545
00:26:52,599 --> 00:26:55,319
one hundred bases in Italy. Yeah, giving us a lot

546
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:57,920
to chew over here. I had no idea that we

547
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:00,880
had that basis in Italy, but it all kind of

548
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:05,960
makes sense, right, and the focus of Trump to find

549
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:11,839
a different power elite to align with in Europe rather

550
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:16,960
than the traditional alliance here since the post World War

551
00:27:17,039 --> 00:27:18,920
two makes a lot of sense.

552
00:27:19,279 --> 00:27:19,640
Speaker 2: It does.

553
00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:22,519
Speaker 1: Well, what I mean is like, if Trump is here's

554
00:27:22,519 --> 00:27:25,160
the thing, here's the thesis, right, and this is my hypothesis.

555
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:28,440
If Trump understands that in order for the United States

556
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:30,880
to be truly free and independent, right and to enter

557
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:34,359
a new golden age, it's got to break with the

558
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:37,599
inferiority complex we have with old Europe that we have

559
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:40,359
to look at as finally the teenagers are about ready

560
00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:43,599
to finally leave the parents' basement and go out into

561
00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:46,680
the world right in Europe as the parent and where

562
00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:51,000
the kid, right, and we're the teenager. Well, if that's

563
00:27:51,079 --> 00:27:54,039
the thesis, and here's all the bits and pieces that

564
00:27:54,079 --> 00:27:56,839
support that thesis. Again, agree with them or disagree with them,

565
00:27:56,839 --> 00:27:59,079
I don't care, that's not my If that's for you

566
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:03,039
to decide. Is the list right, If that's the thesis,

567
00:28:03,759 --> 00:28:06,279
then let's start looking at the data points. Let's start

568
00:28:06,279 --> 00:28:08,039
seeing what's going on and what is Trump doing to

569
00:28:08,079 --> 00:28:10,920
affect that? Well, again, what would what would I do?

570
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:13,279
If I were Donald Trump, strategically, I would want to

571
00:28:13,319 --> 00:28:17,559
split off Italy as one of the three tripods of

572
00:28:17,599 --> 00:28:20,720
the You know, France, Germany, and Italy make up the

573
00:28:21,319 --> 00:28:25,519
tripod on which the entire political and economic union of

574
00:28:25,559 --> 00:28:28,480
the European Union rests. So if you can cleave one

575
00:28:28,519 --> 00:28:30,680
of those legs out from the tripod.

576
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:31,319
Speaker 2: The whole thing falls over.

577
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:33,839
Speaker 1: So clearly we're not going to get Emmanuel macroan to

578
00:28:34,039 --> 00:28:36,240
aside with the United States as much as because France

579
00:28:36,279 --> 00:28:42,240
has always hated the US, Germany now with it, not

580
00:28:42,359 --> 00:28:45,680
with Angela Merkel or Frederick Murrs or anybody else. The

581
00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:48,079
only one who would the only the only power in

582
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:50,480
Germany that would be willing to alie with the United

583
00:28:50,519 --> 00:28:53,359
States would be ALUs vite L of Alternative for Germany.

584
00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:55,599
But she has more like she's more likely to alie

585
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:58,200
with Russia than she is with the US. And then

586
00:28:58,759 --> 00:29:01,160
so the only the only post one of the populist

587
00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:04,119
in Italy as represented by Georgia Maloney. And so it's

588
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:07,000
very clear, and we can see how Trump and Eon

589
00:29:07,079 --> 00:29:10,559
Musk and everybody else, we're working Maloney over very very hard.

590
00:29:10,559 --> 00:29:13,559
But she's in a very difficult situation politically, and then

591
00:29:13,559 --> 00:29:16,319
you have to start drilling into her particular you know,

592
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:18,480
then you have to like learn a lot about Italian politics.

593
00:29:18,519 --> 00:29:20,759
And if you think our politics are murking, you get it,

594
00:29:20,759 --> 00:29:24,839
Italian politics go back to eight thousand years, right, that's right.

595
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:26,799
And so this is the this is the kind of thing,

596
00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:29,599
but you know, the broad but in the broad scope

597
00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:31,279
of things, you know, this is the way I look

598
00:29:31,319 --> 00:29:33,640
at things. I'm you know, I'm an inveteran game player.

599
00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:37,440
I'm an inveterate you know, strategic thinker. This is the

600
00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:40,119
way I operate at all levels. How do I gonna

601
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:41,960
I'm in third place? How am I gonna get the firstlace? Well,

602
00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:43,480
I gotta take that guy out. I get these two

603
00:29:43,519 --> 00:29:45,839
to fight. I just start acting. So you're like the

604
00:29:45,839 --> 00:29:48,480
British Empire always does, which is the set is, which

605
00:29:48,559 --> 00:29:50,200
is the rue guns to both sides of the of

606
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:52,960
the conflict, and then spark a conflict between them, and

607
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:55,160
then you know, sell guns to both sides afterwards, Like

608
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:58,000
that's what they do, and so we do too.

609
00:29:58,119 --> 00:29:58,720
Speaker 2: Why don't we do that?

610
00:29:58,759 --> 00:30:00,039
Speaker 1: Why don't we do that to the When don't we

611
00:30:00,079 --> 00:30:01,359
do that to the rest of Europe? And see how

612
00:30:01,359 --> 00:30:03,319
they like it, which is exactly what Trump is doing

613
00:30:03,359 --> 00:30:04,680
right now, all.

614
00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:09,559
Speaker 4: Right, and so interesting perspective. I like the fact that

615
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:14,079
you approach things from a totally different standpoint, certainly than

616
00:30:14,079 --> 00:30:19,160
the mainstream and even then most alternative people that I

617
00:30:19,319 --> 00:30:23,759
follow out there. The website is Tom Luango dot M

618
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:27,519
E t O M l U O n g O

619
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:30,960
dot me. Link is in the show notes of this interview.

620
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:35,759
And hey, if you think Tom's interview was interesting, please

621
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:38,680
give us a like share and all that stuff. Not

622
00:30:38,759 --> 00:30:42,119
that it makes any difference because we are permanently shadow

623
00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:48,880
band suppressed by our digital overlords. Town I have like

624
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:54,000
I'm working on something now. It is the biggest story

625
00:30:54,279 --> 00:30:58,759
in digital suppression. I've finally gotten to the bottom of it.

626
00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:03,440
Why it's happening, who is really behind it. You're going

627
00:31:03,519 --> 00:31:06,160
to be shocked and all of you out there. You'll

628
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:09,559
never see it on this channel because they won't let

629
00:31:09,599 --> 00:31:13,160
it out. But we've cracked the code. We've proven digital

630
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:15,279
suppression using AI.

631
00:31:16,119 --> 00:31:17,920
Speaker 2: Nobody was able to do it before.

632
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:21,599
Speaker 4: It was always a case of he said, she said.

633
00:31:22,079 --> 00:31:25,839
Now it's a case of AI says it's happening.

634
00:31:26,119 --> 00:31:27,039
Speaker 2: Here's the proof.

635
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:29,839
Speaker 4: Here are the receipts, so that'll be coming out soon

636
00:31:30,319 --> 00:31:33,920
and ch Hey, all of you out there, please buy

637
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:35,920
the book. The links in the show notes the world

638
00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:41,680
according to Martin Armstrong and conversations with the Master Forecaster.

639
00:31:42,839 --> 00:31:47,000
I'm going to get you and Marty together, and I

640
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:49,000
don't know if I'll be able to understand it all,

641
00:31:49,039 --> 00:31:52,720
but maybe those of you watching will be. Really appreciate

642
00:31:52,799 --> 00:31:53,359
you coming on.

643
00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:53,720
Speaker 2: Tom.

644
00:31:53,799 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 4: If there's any questions, shoot me an email KL at

645
00:31:57,160 --> 00:31:59,839
Kerrie Lutz dot com. We'll get you an answer. Tom

646
00:32:00,079 --> 00:32:02,440
really appreciate this. We'll talk to you again soon.

647
00:32:02,599 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 2: Thank you, Carry appreciate it. Fit to meet you and

648
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:04,759
I have a good day.

649
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:09,000
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your

650
00:32:09,079 --> 00:32:12,920
solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to

651
00:32:13,079 --> 00:32:19,319
Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,