Speaker 1: All right, Monday morning time for Total bases. Hope everyone
had a great weekend. I know Brian Leonards weekend started
off really good because on Friday his five percent one
with ease with the Rays over My weekend was going
great until Carlos Mendoza managed his team to another loss.
But all in all, a good weekend, uh, TV. I
hope yours was good as well. And it's Monday morning,
so it's a time to talk, basis, how was your weekend? TV?
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was good. It was good, plus one hundred
and five on the season, so I'm doubled the bankroll,
feeling good and uh ready for some I like some
of the ooh what is Oh.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's uh, it's certainly. Uh it's certainly Monday because
the behind the scenes said, we just got to pop
up here. But I think we're good. I think, uh,
some one of the producers will jump in and fix that.
I'm sure we should be streaming everywhere out right now.
So I see people in the chat. I'm assuming you
guys can hear us. So I think we're just gonna
We're just gonna get started. And I want to start
with with Phillies Mets because not only is it a
massive series in the NL East, but Brian Leonard, do
the Phillies have to worry now? Obviously, they find out
over the weekend that the their Cy Young Award winning
pitcher is done for the season in Zach Wheeling, And
up until yesterday the Mets were looking like they were
gonna make up some ground and did make up some
ground over the last couple of days. Now they have
a chance to really make up some ground head to
head city field, massive series in the NL East, you know,
talk about that and how you're seeing this series.
Speaker 3: Yeah, before we get started, I wanted to point out,
at least for myself, when you have teams that have
already clinched or pretty much cleansed the playoffs. And that's
what we're at right now. There's six teams in the
six teams in the National League that basically have clinched
the playoffs. The closest team to making the playoffs fit's
out of it is Kansas City at seventeen percent. So
while you say it's a massive, massive series, it may
be important to the fans, it's not as important to
the players. The Phillies with a seven game lead and
where they got so they got thirty two games left
in the season. Either way, these two teams are going
to be in the playoffs unless the Mets really fall apart.
Speaker 1: Bryan, you're not giving the Reds. You're not giving the
Reds a chance to catch the Mets.
Speaker 3: According to ESPN, the Reds have a twelve percent chance
and the eighty six, So it's realistically, there's always a chance.
There was a chance I could have had sex with
Pamela Anderson back in the day, but I wouldn't have
bet on it. But there's always a chance. But what
I wanted to point out was since these teams know
they're going to be in the playoffs, the games don't
mean as much and there's going to be good spots
to be able to bet against these teams because normally
you find at the end of the season the teams
that need to win get jacked up and they'll they
need to win to win, maybe to win the division
or clinch this or that. They don't need to win
to make the playoffs, and that's really the goal for
these teams. So we'll be able to make some money
on some good looking underdogs going forward. With this game,
Philadelphia and the Mets. Yes, the loss of Wheeler is
definitely going to hurt. Feel terrible for the guy. This
might have been the year that he was going to
win the Cy Young finally and now he won't. It
look like Skins is going to have that going right
there in the NL. So, but Philadelphia's got some good
pitchers on this team, and they've got some guys in
the minors that that could be called up. But you
know we've got Sanchez going today. I left you against Lenga.
Sanchez is about a one to one to twenty seven
favorite total of eight. Sanga's really struggled. He came out
this year twice, coming out beginning of the season looked good,
and I came back from injury looked good, and then
he's struggled since then. That's something to be concerned about,
is he just has not pitched very well. Christopher Sanchez
has been everything. He's another guy that's in the cy
Young category here, he's probably second or third, but he
comes in with a two point four to six ERA,
three point oh eight expected, one point one oh whip.
He's been just been terrificed. Everything's exa velosses only in
the fifty first percent talle hard a rate forty seventh,
but everything else is in the red. He's had a
terrific season despite only throwing three different pitchers. Of the sinker,
of the change and the slider doesn't even throw your
traditional four seamer, and that really helps him code SINGA.
He does still have that era at two point five eight,
but it's expected as three point eight eight. It's he's
thrown one hundred and four innings. So to get a
hundred innings into the season and be off one point
three on expected the ra Conpardy regular shows you that
he's been very lucky and he's a guy that we
can competently bet against. If you take a look at
his stack gas page, his walk grade is only in
the eleventh percentile. He's walking eleven point four percent of
batters he faces. That's always been a concern. But his
grandbol is pretty good and it's seventy fifth percentile, but
nothing's really excellent out there. He does have seven pitches
that he does use anywhere from two to thirty one percent,
so he's a veteran guy that could find a way
to win. But from a starting pitcher standpoint, I think
Philadelphi's got a really nice edge here, which is why
they're favored. And the Mets they've come out and played
a couple of good games and then they find other
ways to lose. I'm still not sold on the Mets.
They're a team that's been very disappointing to me. You
would think with the players they have, the bullpen that
they've developed, that they would be a team that you
would think is going to be one of the leaders
for the World Series futures. I don't see it at
this point. I think Philadelphia is a better team, and
while I hate going against a good home team like
the match, Philadelphia would be the way I would go
in this game, but I'm not going to get involved
with it. The lines a little bit higher than what
I wanted.
Speaker 2: So many of you might not know this, but wayger
Talk as of today is eleven years old and they're
doing a special. You can get any of our packages
up today for eleven bucks. So I already have mine up.
I'm sure my colleagues here either will or already do,
along with free plays as well. So go to our
page down there in the scroller, or just go to
wayjertalk dot com and see what everyone's offering regarding this game.
The automatic knee jerk reaction is say, oh, Phillies. But
like Brian said, take the pedal off the gas a
little bit. Managers. You know, the players who are on
the field, they're balling out one hundred percent, whether they're
in the playoffs or not. But what makes the difference
is managers will hold people back or take pictures out
early to prepare for the postseason if they're already in,
like the Phillies. So don't expect Phillies starters to go
seven innings at all for the rest of the season.
I wouldn't expect it. But teams that are, you know,
scratching tooth and nail to try to get into the playoffs,
like the Mets. Well, the Mets are probably in the playoffs,
but they're fighting for playoff position. They're fighting to be
in good form for the playoffs. Senga has really good
numbers against these Phillies, and in his history he's granted
he's having a bit of an off season right now,
but he's got a one to twenty two average against
in a three ninety three ops against in forty nine
at bats. So three ninety three you rarely see that.
You know, even if it's five hundred, I'd be impressed,
but three ninety three is really impressive. I think we're
looking at it under here, which is hard to say
because currently I have the Mets ranked two in Major
League Baseball, and I have in hitting, and I have
the Phillies ranked three, and Sanga does have a walk problem,
and he's had this problem since he was in Japan
when he pitched for SoftBank. Uh, he's one of those
flame flame flamethrowers. And those flamethrowers, man, they're hard to hit,
but they're also hard to locate for the pitcher because
they're throwing. It's so damn hard. So yeah, uh, he
does have a walk problem, but he has great numbers
against the Phillies. I'm a little torn. My first inclination
would be an under, but we've got the number two
and number three hitting teams, so I'm a little apprehensive
to take an under against these, So probably not going
to play it.
Speaker 1: I gotta I gotta say, I'm very surprised at Brian,
what what was the exact where did you get those
numbers on teams to make the playoffs with the Reds
and the Mets on ESPN.
Speaker 3: If you break it down by the MLBS standings, it's
got the percentage of the making the playoffs, it's got
right now, the Phillies are ninety nine point nine percent
to make the playoffs. The Mets are at eighty six
point three. If you take a look at games behind,
the Mets head games over five hundred right now and
the Reds are five games over five hundred. But I
believe the Reds have a much tougher schedule the remainder
of the season than the Mets do, so keeping that's
that's how they figure that out.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have to I strongly disagree with that. It's ESPN.
So the fact that it's just garbage beans, you know,
is not surprising to me. But listen, how like the
I thought, you know, Keith the Mets booth on the
game yesterday was talking about how difficult their upcoming schedule
is and the fact that they only have a game
and a half lead and now they're in So like
the way I look at this, this is a huge
series for the Mets. It's at home, it's you know,
the fan base is going to lose their minds if
they don't play well against the Phillies, and I forget
getting back into the division. I think that's a little
bit of a pipe dream at seven games out. I
actually misspoke they lost ground the last two days because
the Phillies won the last two days. But look at
the Mets. I mean, they played the Phillies this week.
Going into September, at Detroit, at Cincinnati, at Philadelphia, that's
a road trip for the Mets to start September at
Tigers at Red's, which will be massive head to head
games for both of those teams, and then at Philly
for four. Then they come home to the Rangers, who
are still trying to you know, win, but I think
they'll be out by then Padres, so like Rangers, Padres
Nationals should be a winnable series. Then they go to
the Cups. That's a I mean, that's like a really
tough schedule. I guess the reason I bring it up
is I still think that these are very important games
for the Mets. And you know, I came into the
weekend with the mindset that I was just gonna kind
of ride the Mets till they lost big win on Friday,
big win on Saturday, and then like Super disappointing result yesterday,
because I feel like you kind of said this on Friday.
Mendoza not a great in game manager, and he managed
them to a loss yesterday. Unfortunately, left David Peterson in
too long. Some of the choices he made with the
relief pitching I didn't necessarily agree with. And if you
miss the game, it was a two and uping lead
for the Mets. Peterson left in too long, gives up
the hit that makes it two to two, and then
they kind of, you know, I think Soto pitched themselves
into a two out jam and he gave up the
hit in the in the eighth inning, and then they
had a little rally in the ninth that kind of
fizzled out, which kind of is like, I just I
didn't love how that unfolded for them. That being said,
I still think Mets as an underdog here makes some sense.
Phillies used a lot of bullpen this weekend, and I
do think we get better from Senga at some point,
But I just have to be I gotta say, I
don't know. I don't know that I can say that
with enough conviction to like bet it. It's just I
still think we're going to get a big effort from
the Mets at home here, and I think they're very
big games. And I don't think the Mets are in
the playoffs by any means. They have a lot of
work to do.
Speaker 3: Go ahead, Brian, Well, the teams that you mentioned they're
playing are all teams that are locked into the playoffs,
So there's not any any reason for those teams to
play their best players. It's like Brandon said, if they've
got a guy that gonna pull matter five innings, they're
going to bring up some minor league guys. See what
they've got out of that. So while it looks on
paper that it might be tough, you've got to keep
in mind at the end of the season, these teams
are not trying to win. They're trying to set themselves
up for the playoffs, get some get some rest, just
as just as Brandon said, So yeah, I think I
think the six teams in right now are in and
you know, everybody else is a long shot.
Speaker 1: So I I and and it's a it's a good
point that if you if that's the sort of position
you're gonna take, I feel like it makes the Mets
handicap that much stronger tonight because you know, and Sean
kind of pointed out, Senga's got good numbers against the Phillies,
Chris Christopher Santis is due for a little bit of regression.
Phillies burnt up some pen this weekend. And if they
feel like they're just chilling and they're in, then why
would you not maybe look toward the Mets as an
underdog here. That's that's just kind of how I'm thinking
it out in my head. But it's a good discussion.
That was a that was a good discussion right there.
Speaker 3: If you if you look at the xtually A get
pretty ra Sengo, that's due for the regression. So I
look at numbers when it comes to that. And that's
that's just the way I hand it, Cap.
Speaker 1: And I don't disagree with that either, because I've just
just from watching games, and you know, Mets are They're
They're not my team, and they're not even the team
I watch on a regular basis, but I I follow
the organization closely because I go to a lot of
their Triple A games just for something to do, and
I've watched a lot of s and Brian I just
the eye test suggests that he might get hit at
some point. It just it just doesn't has looked as
chrisp and so yeah, that's a I feel like we
kind of went deep in that one and it didn't
produce much of a of a pick, but I thought
it was a good, good discussion to start.
Speaker 3: We never know when we start these games, somebody might
say one thing and then all of a sudden, something
triggers in your mind.
Speaker 1: You know, let's go to Rick Reynolds. He's got he's
got one that I'm interested in. Here, he says, took
Seattle minus one twenty five last night, like the spot
for them after winning Big, Yesterday will be their third
night in a row, facing a lefty which they're familiar with.
Excited to watch that series, Mariners still has some work
to do. I still think they're playing big games and
that this is an interesting series because you know, the
Mariners and the Padres, like I still think are both
very much playing for different You know, they might both
be playoff teams, but I'm sure the Padres want to
catch the Dodgers. There's no question the Mariners would like
to win that divisi And so big series kicks off
in Seattle. Tonight JP Sears Bryce Miller. What do you
think about Rick's point, the fact that the Mariners is
going to see another lefty here and can they get
the Sears.
Speaker 3: I think that is an advantage, but also Seriars has
played all these years for the Athletics and they're very
familiar with them. Of course he's familiar with them also,
But I think when you see somebody's offense ager, that's
an advantage to the to the hitters series, the lefty
against Miller, the righty. Miller looked pretty good coming out
of the IL, so we'll see what we get out
of him. But I think the line's kind of cheap
here for Seattle. You're looking at him and basically at
one twenty five, one twenty five favorite San Diego with
the total is eight, just slightly to the under. And
San Diego is coming off of that big series with
the Dodgers, so now they're playing a team not even
in their not not only the division, but not even
in their league. There's an inter league game. I think
that helps Seattle. Seattle, as you mentioned, still working on
making the playoffs. San Diego is very similar, but the
games in the other league mean more and the home
team I think has a nice advantage in these in
EARLYGUE games when they started in EARLYAGUE action, that was
the case. I haven't seen the numbers lately. I don't
know if it's held up, but originally the teams in
the other league playing at home had the advantage in
this one. JP Sears comes in with a four point
ninety four ERA four point one five expected. He's been
better than what his ERA shows, but he's a career
four point four to nine, so he is what he is.
He's very good at not walking batters. He's in the
eighty fourth percentile and he walks six percent of batters
six a game, or excuse me, six percent, and his
ground ball rate is only in the second percentile. But Seattle,
unless you're the big dumper who he seems to hit
home runs for miles, this is overall not the greatest
home run part. But I would look to face series
a little bit here. Bryce Miller, he's had a down
season because of injuries. Five point eight seven ERA, five
point six three expected, one point five to one whip,
which has really been the problem. He's only throwing fifty
three innings because of injuries. I would tons of blue
on on this dast page. He's had a bad season,
but a lot of it has to do with injuries.
He throws seven different pitches. I think he'll as like success,
especially against a team that doesn't see him very often
in the National League. I think the number is a
little bit cheap here on Seattle. That would be the
side that I would look for, And I'm still thinking
about what I'm gonna use. I haven't put up my
eleven dollars play eleven dollars package yet today. I'll put
those up after we get done here, but Seattle is
pretty fair number for the host in this one.
Speaker 2: Guys, go to the replay and leave a comment for us.
Whether you like us, hate us, think we stink, think
we're great, leave a comment. We read them all and
we respond to most of them. Brian's had several winning
days on a streak. Adam was the number one CAPA
in the last thirty days, and I'm number one in
twenty twenty five. You can think we're bad, but we're not.
We're actually pretty good. So check our pages out and
leave a comment. I think San Diego could be a
World Series team.
Speaker 1: They have.
Speaker 2: At least one of the two best bullpens in MLB.
They have great talent on the lineup. I think adding
some of the guys they added at the trade deadline,
including Naylor, and I just think this team seems like
one of those teams of destiny. It was always the problem,
and can they get past the Dodgers. I think they can.
I think after this series with I think they're going
to be, uh pretty psyched up. And I just think
they're the better team out of these guys. I don't think,
in any circumstance against any team in MLB should San
Diego be an underdog. In my opinion. Bryce Miller has
a great name, a great pedigree, but this year his
his whip is one five to one. He's not pitching
well and Sears is not pitching well either, like Brian mentioned,
but against these batters won sixteen at bats against. He's
got a one seventy two average against in a five
point fifty five OPS. Granted that's probably from about two
years ago when he was the stud in Oakland's rotation,
and he's not pitching quite that well this year. But
I think backed by this bullpen and these hitters, I
think plus money on San Diego is is is a blessing.
Speaker 3: Actually you mentioned Taylor, Yes he was originally he did
go to San Diego. Is now a Seattle now.
Speaker 2: Okay, So who was it that I saw in their
lineup yesterday?
Speaker 1: Uh?
Speaker 2: They added someone at the trade deadline, which really.
Speaker 3: They brought in O'Hearn from Baltimore.
Speaker 2: Yes, probably that's who I was thinking.
Speaker 3: Sorry, yeah, for some reason.
Speaker 1: But great edition.
Speaker 2: You've got Machado, You've got Tatis, You've got I mean.
Speaker 1: This is a talent just called Will Wagner up. I
think they grabbed him from the Blue Jays at the deadline.
You know who's you know who's had an unreal season,
Tokyo Brandon that for whatever reason they refuse to give
a chance is Jonathan Perlaza from Kate former Hanwa Eagle
is tearing the cover off the ball for El Paso,
and like, for whatever reason, he continues to get passed
over for an opportunity Like I don't I'm not quite
sure why, but but I liked.
Speaker 2: I like the move Seattle made as well though at
the deadline. You know, I mean they that I think
Suarez is finally coming around. I mean, he had a
bad game last night, but uh, Seattle's got a great
lineup too. But I don't think Sears is gonna get
pounded today. I just don't have a feeling he's going
to so well, we'll see, we'll see who's right.
Speaker 1: The chat actually is all over. Like Loriano has been insane.
I think he's got like a nine hundred ops late
addition that, yeah, yeah, I.
Speaker 3: Mean continue to hit so with aptitude of guys.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean Lorianno has always been a guy that
you add because he's got a cannon for an arm.
He's a great defender. But if you're going to get
that kind of production out of him from an offensive standpoint,
that's that's incredible stuff. And yeah, like TV, I'm kind
of with you. I'm a little bit always a little
bit hesitant to to fade the padres. I like this team.
I like you know they I think they're a very
complete team and contender for the most part. The thing
that I guess concerns me a little bit with them
is starting pitching. And I'm with Brian and it's not
something I gave enough thought to prior to coming on
the show. They have a huge sample size against Sears.
They've seen him so much that this is like probably
a favorable Yeah, but at some point, at some point,
you see a guy enough and these are major league hitters,
like they're they're probably you know, they're they're more likely
to get to them. In my opinion, like when you
have a big sample, even if the pitcher's dominated for
a while, I think at some point big league hitters
can figure out. And we're talking about JP Sears, who's
not a guy with like electric stuff. I mean it's
not like he's you know, he's really shutting down big
league lineups on a regular basis. So that's I lean
that way. Brian, you talked about home records a second ago.
The Mariners are thirty nine and twenty six at home
this year. So even though we've kind of talked about
them maybe not fitting into this ballpark in the respect
that like they rely on the home run and it's
a tough park to hit the ball out of, they've
been very very good at home. Can't the win The
record is what it is, right, thirteen games over five
hundred down their home field. And then finally with Bryce Miller,
I'll throw his big league numbers right out because it's
such a small sample and he and he was hurt.
And then last week he comes back from injury and
the Phillies put together great at bad after great at
bad against him. I was on the Mariners in that game,
and Miller just I felt like he threw it well,
and the Phillies are just on another level with I
mean they were, they filed off great pitches. It's just like,
you know, that lineup was so locked in in that
series that I'm almost willing to give Miller a pass
on the like you look at the box score, five innings,
four runs like that seems like it wasn't great. And
I thought he threw the belt ball much better than
that box score would indicate. So I think I may have.
You guys may have talked me into Mariners a little bit.
I'm not gonna use it for the parlot though, I'm
gonna I'm gonna chill on that one. But uh yeah,
I think he leaned towards Seattle. Eric eric Man says,
do you put all best picks or parlays out? So, like, listen,
if you want our best picks, they're always at the
wager Talk site. Check out the free plays tab. I
know Tokyo Brandon's brought it up a bunch, and I'm
guilty of not bringing it up as much. But like
we often load a free play, a lot of times,
I will put up a free play that that actually
is one of my client plays that did over the weekend.
So so check out the free picks tab. And then
today apparently it's wager Talk's birthday. Who knew eleven years
ago today the site began, and I believe all packages
are eleven dollars TV. Is that what I'm seeing here?
Eleven bucks for everything today?
Speaker 3: Yep?
Speaker 1: Yeah, right, eleven great way to get our best picks.
But as far as this show is concerned, I mean,
I think we put a pick in the parlay for
the show that we were fairly confident in if not playing.
So I think, like right, like you would you agree.
Most most of the time, my parlay pick is either
something I've played or something i've like really close to playing.
And I think that you can kind of bet those
picks with with some confidence. All right, all right, let's
let's get let's give Sean some love here. I feel
like we haven't talked about the Tigers much lately, and
and and that is that is uncharacteristic of this show,
Brian Leonard, I don't think we talked about the Tigers
at all last week, to be honest with you, or barely.
But today the Tigers head out west, and you know,
having to go out west and play this A's team
has not really been a walk in the park. I
feel like they give an effort. This might be a
tough spot for the A's as they draw to stable
here tonight in West Sacramento. So what do you think here?
Is there any shot that you can find a way
to get to the window with the A's here or
is it going to be all schoolble tonight.
Speaker 3: I'm going to make a general thought process here, and
I talked about this earlier when you tried had a
big lead in the division. It would have even helped
better if they were held on. They had a nice
comeback yesterday, but then Kansas City ends up getting the victory.
Detroit is the team I'm looking to fade, and I
hate say it for Sean and the Tigers fans, but
this is a team that is not used to be
in this situation. They've got a big lead in the division.
They're going to try to set everybody up going down
to the stretch. Don't know if I'm want to fade
Schooble because he's still fighting it out for the cy
young and he's obvious favorite, But Detroit's a team I'm
looking to fade as it goes on because right now
they're going to be overrated and every game they play
it's not going to be a popular decision. But you
have to realize that games won't mean as much to them.
They've locked up this division by winning. I believe they
won three out of four against the Royals over the
weekend and that pretty much did it. The Royals got
a seventeen percent chance, Cleveland's down to a five percent chance.
Detroit can set themselves up the rest of the season
very much like the Dodgers have all season long. We
talked about them. When they play with one of their
division rivals, either the Padres or the Giants, they seem
to play a little bit harder than they do a
lot of the other games. So something to keep track of.
Now for this game, Scooble comes in. He's about a
two twenty favorite against GINN a total of nine, slightly
to the under Terry Scobel has been terrific, no doubt
about it. Two point three to two ERA two point
six nine expected, zero point eighty seven whip right across
the board. He's just been as good as he's been
in the last couple of years. He's just as good
this year and over the last two years. He's now
twenty nine and seven in his games that he gets
the winner of the loss. So you always like him
on the mound. He's very, very good, probably the best
pitcher in baseball along with Skeins JT. Gin four point
nine to five ERA three point nine six expected, So
he's got some positive regression coming his way. One point
three to seven whip still bothers me a little bit.
Career in two seasons is one point three to five.
He does get hit. His heart hit rates in the
fifth percentile, barrel right in the ninth percentile. But other
than that, he's he's been pretty good. Only throw us
four pitches with a sinker fifty two percent of the time,
and I part of me thinks that he has the
ability to go out on any night and pitch very well.
The problem is, I don't think he's very consistent. And
that's the situation you find yourself in Yes, I think
school will pitch great and schoobl will probably win. Will
I want to lay the two twenty I don't think so.
I'll be passing on this one. But just keep in
mind Detroit's in one of those situations with the other
five teams that they've all basically got everything locked up,
and the public will look at it, and they will
look at the records, and the public will be playing
the big favorites, and we could take advantage of the
underdogs the rest of the season.
Speaker 2: Here's an interesting statistic for you. Gin has allowed fourteen
earned runs in his last fifteen innings pitched, and he's
got a six plus CRA at home. Now he's going
against a pitcher who has allowed seven earned in his
last twenty one innings, So I think Scooble's a little
bit better as a matter of fact.
Speaker 1: Matter of fact.
Speaker 3: Also, by the way, yeah, matter.
Speaker 2: Of fact, Schools. I have him ranked number two out
of every starting pitcher in MLB, right behind Skiens because
Skeens has had two good starts in a row, but
those two are basically swapping number one between each other
every week. So given that I have Detroit hitting better,
I have Detroit's bullpen and the A's bullpen dead even,
So generally I like to have a little bit more
of a discrepancy between the teams if I'm going to
make a side bet on it. So I haven't made
a side bet on it, but it's really hard to
bet against Scooble, really hard, especially when he's got the
better line up behind him. Now, the A's were hitting,
they were on a tear last week, but my rankings
are very recentcy biased.
Speaker 3: Right now.
Speaker 2: I got the A's ranked fifteen, which is right on
the mendos A line of all thirty Major League Baseball teams,
and I got the Tigers ranked twelve, so, you know,
pretty comparable, but Tiger's a little bit better and bullpen's
pretty even. This starting pitching discrepancy is huge, though, So yeah,
I think it's Tigers or nothing. I haven't played it yet, though.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like I was just checking, are my eyes deceiving me?
Speaker 3: Did?
Speaker 1: Are the Tiger's now under a two dollars favorite? Are they?
Speaker 2: Like?
Speaker 1: Minus one eighty? Is that true? Minus eighty?
Speaker 3: That's strong lost? I say, is a heritage all right?
Speaker 1: So I I wonder if this screen hasn't refreshed or something.
I just pulled one book up quick that that I
saw a minus one eighty five, which very well could
be the case. But I was wondering what the what
the market was because I don't have that screen up
even minus one ninety. I think it's crazy for the
for Schooble here. And then I'm a guy that likes
this A's team, right like I look for spots in
the PA. You know, I'm even probably in the in
the camp of like try to fade this Tigers team.
The A's don't set up great against left handed pitching,
and they literally will face the best left handed pitcher
on the planet right here. So that's a concern. The
other thing with Schoogle is what has he given up
outside his division? Really? Like the only teams that tend
to get to him other than that Angel start, which
was just a weird game. If I remember correctly, it
was it fell at a weird time for him. I
don't know if it was a day game, but there
was something I had a note written down about that.
So where what is he given up outside of the division?
Last time out against the Astros seventh scoreless, ten strikeouts,
the Phillies three runs, seven innings ten K's Blue Jays.
I mean, these are elite lineups right here. Six scoreless,
seven strikeouts, Rangers six and two third, one run eleven
K's that's since the All Star Break, and those are
decent teams and he's wiped them out. The only team
that's really kind of scraped by off of him a
little bit, I feel like is the Twins, but they
have like tons of exposure against him. Goes back to
the hole, you know, making a case for the Mariners
right like they you start to see a guy enough,
even if it's s Google, you can kind of start
to figure him out. The A's really haven't seen him.
The as swing at a lot of pitches, and the A's
lineup is not They don't put their best lineup in
the field when they faced a lefty, because that means
you're gonna have guys like Kurtz Soderstrom. They're gonna have
to face a lefty and that's that's not optimal for them.
So I mean the Tigers is like a no brainer.
The problem is you got to lay a dollar ninety,
but I think you should be laying closer to like
I think you should be more like two fifty. I
think that's a little cheap. I you know what, I
don't like much right now, I'm gonna put this. I'm
gonna put Tiger's money line in the parlay. It's gonna
kill the odds a little bit, but I'm fine with
that because it's a three teamer and there's just not
much else that I love that. I don't that that
I want to give away here because I'm probably gonna
need to sell a play for eleven dollars on the
site today because it's wager Talk's birthday, so Tiger's money
lines might play. Go ahead, Brian, I.
Speaker 3: Just wanted to point out the reason why I don't
like to try, just because they're coming off that big
series against Kansas City that basically locked up the division
for him, So the motivation may not be there, but
the motivation is still there. For school ball, sure, I
think the better at least my opinion, the better way
to play is maybe play the athletics under three and
a half runs and you can play one to thirty five.
I think that's that's because if Scooball's gonna win, he's
not going to give up four runs. I see. I
think that's probably the worst.
Speaker 1: Probably. I don't disagree with that either. I'm gonna I'm
gonna keep Tiger's money line for the parlate because it's
just a little bit easier for the people to get
in a parlay. But yeah, I'm basically fine with correlating
anything towards Schooble having a good game. Tokyo, Brandon, what's
that You kind of played the starting pitcher to win
market sometimes? Do you see that offered for Schooble here?
Speaker 2: I don't see it because I'm not logged in right now.
That's okay, I mean, but here's an interesting statistic statistic.
Why can't I speak English today? Japanese is all right,
My English is no good. So interesting statistic here. The
A's have hit Schooble in the past, so it could
be high scoring, but I think Detroit will hit the
A's more. Brett Rooker seven eight eight for seventeen with
three home runs against Schooble. So if you want to
play a hits runs RBI prop, Brooker would be your
guy today in my opinion. But uh yeah, I think
the A's can probably get two runs off of Scooble,
but I think the Tigers will probably get about eight off. Again,
So so a couple.
Speaker 3: Couple of things. This is definitely a chief.
Speaker 1: Number, all right, So a couple things here, A couple
things here like chat chat is okay, like turbucle Tommy
points out the A's are the best lineup against left
handed pitching over the last month. Listen, any you can
make anything work with a small sample, and I'm not
discounting that. Okay, but tell get back to me with
the caliber of left handed pitcher that that's that's based
off of. And tell me if anyone in there is
anywhere close to the caliber of Greek School. What I'm
saying is I don't think this lineup stets up the
best against lefties.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 1: It's not to say that they haven't had a good
run against them, but I just think when you look
at who their A's are o them on lineup, is
Kurt Soderstrom. You'd rather have those guys against right handed pitching.
The other thing is the A's have good numbers against Schooble,
who because the A's last year are not this lineup.
Most of these guys weren't even on the team last year.
So like how many times has Jacob Wilson seen Terry
scuobl or like, but you know what I'm saying, like
they they haven't seen him much at all. And the
one thing you're forgetting too, the A's swing at everything.
You don't think a guy like the caliber of Kurt
Tarik Schooble is going to take that to his advantage.
So I mean over over strikeouts. I just think let's
see what Sean's saying here. Schooble seven innings, pitch vest
and Finnegan to close the game under three and a
half is a play. I don't disagree with that. I'm
fine with Tiger's money line. I'm fine with Schooble to
record a win. I'm fine with strikeouts over. I think
the A's are going to swing and miss a lot
tonight and in the Tigers are gonna be in the
driver's seat. That's why I'm making the play go ahead.
Speaker 3: Bright, Yeah, well that US just got hit. They're down.
Pinnacle is down to one eighty one on Detroit. So
it may be a situation where Detroit has liked out
their lineup on tonight's and they're gonna play a lot
of guys that aren't normally in the lineup.
Speaker 1: Their lineup's not very good anyway. That's what I've been
saying with the Tigers all year, like they're you know,
like they're that's not why you played Detroit in my opinion.
Speaker 2: And this left handed, right handed stuff is way overrated.
In my opinion, I don't really care how they do
against left handed pitching. I care how they do against
this left handed pitcher, and like you know, they can
bomb bomb the heck out of you know, Carlos Carrasco.
I don't care. What does that have to do with
how they're going to do today. Nothing, So I don't
really put a lot of credence in the left handed stuff.
Speaker 3: I disagree. A lot of the teams are set up
very good against leftis alreadies depending on if they have
leftis varrieties in the lineup and it or We even
saw one team yesterday loaded their team up with righty
is because they were facing already that had opposite splits.
So I disagree with that. But yeah, money coming in
on the athletics there, so you'll get a better number
than you would have gotten five minutes ago on that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and we'll hopefully get a better number at the end.
Of the show when we lock into parlay one more time,
because like I'm confused here, Adam say they don't line
up well against left handed pitching. I did not say that.
I said I don't think that they And this is
just my opinion. So you don't have you could take
it or leave it. It doesn't not every opinion I
make is fact. I'm saying that I don't. I don't
think they're optimal lineup like in my opinion with some
of the guys they have in there long term, is
the best against left handed pitching and I and you know,
you could take a small sample size, but there's a
couple lefties have dominated them this year, earlier in the year,
and they're facing the literal best one on the planet tonight.
That's all I'm saying. Anyway, let's see exactly that's it.
And again I could be very wrong. There's the market
things I'm wrong, but I've also played back at the
market often this year in Major League Baseball and I'm
having and I'm doing great, so I can uh, I can't,
is what it is. I'll take a better number. You
want to give me a better number on the Tigers,
Sean and Ile bet the Tigers tonight will cash with school,
no problem, all right.
Speaker 3: A lot of time, a lot of times you'll find
headpakes this early in the morning, but I can't see
it on this game because the public will be all
over Detroit. Why would you do that make a headpake
that this has got to be legit money coming in
on the dog here?
Speaker 1: I would think, Yeah, I'm sure it is. I'm sure
it is. They might see value in the in the
number over the course of the whole game. I'm not
saying that there's not. I just don't agree with it anyway. Uh,
let's uh, let's continue here. Okay, that was That was
I didn't think we were going to have that lively
of a discussion on Tiger's ace. But what do I know?
This is we're off to a hot start. On a Monday.
One more time as I as I the next game
TV promo would tell tell them what's going on at
wager Talk today one more time.
Speaker 2: So on this day eleven years ago, Marco and Prez
started this company by selling, started starting to put their
picks out, and it's grown exponentially. Now we have I
think thirty three thirty one cappers here and a lot
of talented guys, including US three. You can hate us,
you can say we're silly, but the three of us
are winning pretty well this year, so we're pretty good guys.
Speaker 1: To follow.
Speaker 2: Eleven dollars for any package on any capper, and that's unlimited,
so go to wagertalk dot com and see all the deals,
especially from US.
Speaker 3: I will point out I was one of the original
ages on the site eleven years ago, which is why No.
D number one in baseball through the history, I've had
a little bit of a head start on some of
you guys, so you've done very well since you've been
on the site. But yeah, that's that's why I've been
on it for so long that I've accumulated more winners.
Speaker 1: All right, Colin, We'll we'll get that. I saw what
you put up there. We'll we'll definitely get that one next.
But I'm gonna I pull the comment up. Is Washington
a good bet today with Lord on the mound? And
this is an interesting one because of course it's everyone's
favorite team to talk about, the New York Yankees. Who
saved face a little bit last night, Brian Leonard, You
know it was always funny to see jash chishlm kind
of like celebrating that second home run. It's like, you
guys still got bodied by the Red Sox all weekend. Yes,
they stole the finale and now they come into tonight.
Our guy Cam Schlitler looked really good last time out.
And but the Yankees are a big favorite here. And
what what Jason is asking is is there value on
the nets? Brad Lord's been good. The nets have been
the Gnats excuse me, have been pretty good against right
handed pitching, and they're up against a righty here. So
how are you seeing this one? NAT's Yankees.
Speaker 3: We're looking at the Yankees about it looks about about
a two thirty favorite total of nine. But once again,
we've got a team coming off of the big series
against Boston and they're still Somebody came in the chat
or not wasn't the chat, but it was afterwards and said,
we're making fun of the Yankees. Well, if you've watched
the Yankees play even this series, they continue to have
bad base running, bad errors. They're just not a very
fundamental team. I know they do have some talent. They've
got some great talent. Judge is one of the best
hitters I've ever seen, but they are not an actual
team that other people are. You compare them to the Brewers,
the Brewers are the better team, although the Browers do
not have the talent the Yankees have. But anyway, Lord's
going or Washington. He comes in with a three point
four to six ERA four point three six expected, so
he's been a little bit lucky. Terrible extension in the
third percentele expected Bannie everage in the fifteenth. He's very
good at a couple things here. Averagejacks velocity eighty second
percentile barrel rate ninetieth, ground ball rate eighty seventh ground
ball rates very important in this ball in this ballpark
with a lot of home muns. In fact, I was
looking at the home runs on the season. There are
two teams, the Yankees and I can't remember who the
other team was, that have twice as many home runs
as the Pittsburgh Pirates, twice as many home runs. That's
why the Pirates are not winning a lot of games offensively.
But Brad Lawd going against the Yankees, We'll see how
it goes for him. But Schlittler has been very good.
Three point two two ERA three point nine all so
he's a little bit lucky in that regard. Still small
sample size, only thirty six. I think it's basketball velocity
ninety fifth percentile. He throws ninety eight miles an hour,
and that could be enough to have success against this
Washington team. Who you talk about teams that have the
guys that will chase a little bit, They do chase,
So that is a concern here. I'm not gonna be
on Washington. I just think the pitching advantage goes for
the Yankees, the situational advantage goes for Washington, but I'm
not probably not gonna get there. Let's take a look
at what the spread on this is one and a half.
You can get Washington plus one and a half right now,
basically even money at plus one hundred. If you're going
to play it, that may be the better way to
play it. But I'll be passing on this game myself.
Speaker 2: So I've said many times, don't bet against Jesus, and
I'm going to say don't bet against the Lord today
because yes, Brian's correct, he has been a little bit lucky,
but his numbers are really good. Slitler also though pretty
good numbers. I mean, if you look at his last starts,
He's not giving up many runs. I think he's given
up five earned in his last three starts. Pretty good
at home. His ERA is higher than on the road,
a little strange, but the sample size is small still,
only nineteen innings, so I don't know how much credence
we can put into that. The Lord has forty six
innings on the road and a two five to four ERA.
Pretty good numbers, no sample size Against the Yankees. I
think someone told Aaron Judge that it's playoff time because
he's batting like his playoff self, not his regular season self.
He's been a ghost since he came back off of injury,
and until he gets his back going, he's the only
real legitimate batter in this entire lineup in my opinion.
Jazz Chisholm. I was surprised how he reacted after his
second home run, but I was surprised to see him.
Speaker 1: Have a good game.
Speaker 2: That's his first game, first good game since May.
Speaker 3: I mean, geez, sucks.
Speaker 2: So I've got Washington ranked higher than the Yankees at everything,
but I have him ranked higher. I have them ranked
higher than the Yankees, only by like one or two
points here and there. So I have them ranked higher
at everything, but not by a lot unless Judge gets
his bat going. Where are the Yankees run production coming from?
I mean, I don't see it.
Speaker 1: I got the.
Speaker 2: The bullpen discrepancy. I have a little bit bigger than
anything else, though, Like I got Washington ranked nine and
I got the Yankees ranked fifteen or so, But everything
else I have almost neck and neck. So if anything,
I would take Washington here. But yeah, I kind of
agree with Brian. I don't really trust Lord that much.
Sample sizes are small, and he has put up good stats,
but his expected stats are a little bit scary, So
might lay off of that one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that Nationals at tempting, especially on the run line.
Plus one and a half a couple of reasons. One
Yankee is still trying to figure out how to play
fundamental baseball. Yes, they got to win last night. No,
the fundamentals were not good for a lot of the weekend,
and again that's why they got You know, the Red
Sox were the clear better team in that series. I
guess you could throw that point out, you know, I
think some of it's anecdotal. But still playing a big
game on Sunday night, like yeah, there's no travel or anything,
but the magnitude. I mean that that was Yankees Red
Sox for four days. Like you can't tell me that
that doesn't like that they weren't up and into that
series big time, and now playing the Nats might be
a little bit of a letdown, right, Like they just
we just had Yankees Red Sox at the stadium big time,
like Thursday night was a standalone National TV game. Sunday
night standalone National TV game like that was a huge
series and now they have to play the lowly Nationals.
So you know, definitely could could maybe out a little
bit flat as far as the matchup's concerned. I'll go
back to what I've said all season. The Nationals are
a tend to be a good bet against right handed pitching.
There's a lot of lefties in the lineup, and this
goes back to like lineup construction like I was talking
about with the A's a little bit. It's like, I
just think the Nationals lineup plays against right handed pitching
much better because there's been points in time where they've
had nine left handed hitters in the lineup this year. Now,
they're a type of team that continues to call guys up,
send him down. So you know, you never really know
who's going to be in the lineup for the Nats
on a given day. And that's another characteristic of a
team that's fifty three and seventy seven and out of it.
But my guess is they're going to put all these
lefties in the lineup because that's what they've done most
of the season. That could be tough on a young
guy like Chlitzler, you know, like he's gonna he may
have to navigate a lineup of nine left handed batters here,
and for as good as he's been, you know that's
not I don't know that that's necessarily easy to do.
The last point I'll make the natsa played pretty good
ball this week, Like every game has been competitive, A
couple wins against the Mets, they go to Philly, they
win on Friday, and then the last two nights have
been competitive losses six to four on Saturday, two to
three last night. They didn't really burn their their best
bullpen arms the last two days. So I don't mind
the Nats on the run line here, especially if you
get it around even money. That seems like a reasonably
good bet. To make someone you know. Sean makes a
good point, Yankees do destroy bad teams, but I still
lean toward the Nats or go ahead TV. What were
you gonna say?
Speaker 2: Sorry to interrupt, but quick point. But I'm not big
on like spots and stuff like that. It's not a
big part of my cap. But it's undeniable that teams,
when they come off an intense series, they do have
a letdown. Like look how the Dodgers performed after their
San Diego Padre series they get sweeped by the Angels.
I mean, it is a thing. How much of a
thing that's for you guys to determine, and that's for
us as cappers to determine. But it is a thing
when you come off a heated rivalry series you do
for a letdown, and that is actually a thing. I'm
not guaranteeing the Yankees are gonna lose here, but I
do think they'll be flat.
Speaker 1: Brian, how much stock are you putting into Sunday Night Baseball?
Like have you kind of tracked that at all? Has
that been I know I took a loss playing a
team that came off a Sunday night game last week,
but I feel like sometimes it's anecdote. Where you stand
on that.
Speaker 3: I think it all depends on who the team is.
If it's your normal teams that they put on Sunday
Night Baseball, I don't think it makes that much of
a difference. But if you're a team that never gets
on national TV, I think it's a huge difference. So
you have to take it a little bit on an
individual basis.
Speaker 1: I believe, Yeah, I don't think there's any question that,
like coming off Yanks Red Sox, they're gonna have you know,
they're gonna have to recharge up a little bit because
that was a very that was an intense four game series.
But I also don't disag with Shaw on the Yankees.
They do hammer bad teams on occasion, and there's no
question the Nationals are a bad baseball team. I just
think this matchup is not the worst for them. So
that's a good, good chat right there. I don't know
if I'll get to the window with Nats, but I
personally see some value with the visitors. All right, let's talk.
Let's go to Colin. This is a big game. Gotta
talk about this one. Red's Dodgers, He asks Brian Leonard,
playoff preview. Well, if you watch the beginning of the show,
Brian says, the Reds don't have a great chance to
make the playoffs. But what do you think Red's Dodgers.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think he's talking about this year. I
do say this is probably a good spot for the Reds.
As was just mentioned, the Dodgers coming off the San
Diego got Hunter Green, who is the better pitcher on
the mound. Just depends on how long he can go.
He's only got seventy two innings on the season because
of injuries, but those seventy two innings have been really impressive.
Two point sixty three ERA, two point seven five expected,
zero point ninety three whip. Just two years ago he
had a one point four to two whip and over
one hundred innings. He's gotten so much better in that.
But he is a flyball pitcher, and we've talked about
this in the past. They've got a lot of flyball
pitchers in Cincinnati, but none of them given home runs.
This year, maybe they've figured something out and they brought
in latel another guy who gives up a lot a
lot of home runs. They brought him and he's a
flyball pitcher, so they might have figured something out. In fact,
I read an article a couple of weeks ago about that,
and they think they're judging something a little bit differently
in Cincinnati than they do anywhere else, and so they're
head of the curve when it comes to that. So
you've got to give them credit. They figured out a
way to throw flyballs to just keep everybody a little
bit off balance and not throw it inside where they
can pull it, and that's I think that's where they're
getting their success on it. But one hundred Green's a
guy I really like, and I think he's he's one
of the better pitchers in Major League Baseball if he
can just stay healthy. And Machinson had a decent season
four point one seven ERA, three point seven to two expected.
In fact, last year he ended up with a four
point nine to two ERA but a three point five
all expected, so his expected numbers look like he could
be a guy that could be pitching some playoff innings
here as a starter for the Dodgers, even because they've
had so many guys go in and out of the
lineup because of the injuries to the starting rotation. But
I like him overall. But he's also a guy that
gives up fly balls. He's in the six percent tile
of the ground ball rate. But I really like his
his everything he does. He only throws four pitches and
the curve only seven percent of the time. He's a
fastball guy forty seven percent of the time. But if
I'm playing this one, I'm taking the underdog. The underdog
reds here you can get you know, upwards of one
point thirty, but more of one twenty five range for
that on the reds, I prefer that side. Don't know
if I'll get there. To be honest with you, I'm
not love in the card. Today. We're on a I
believe eleven and four run on free plays and we've
won twelve out the last sixteen days for paid clients,
so everything's going well. The good news is all these
games are on the evening card, so I've got many
more hours to look over these before I have to
put up make up my decisions. So at this point
nothing's jumping out of me. But once I see some
lineups and read some more stories, maybe I'll get a
better play to put up for clients today.
Speaker 2: Yeah again. Wager talks eleventh anniversary on this day, eleven
years ago we started the company. So as a token
of appreciation to all of our customers, eleven dollars plays
for all capers, all plays. So go to wayser talk
dot com see what we have up and check out
our free plays, even if you're not going to buy anything.
So regarding this one, I couldn't agree with Brian Moore again,
tough series against the Padres. The Dodgers are in shambles
right now. I mean, if you look at how they
performed the last month, they're no better than They're no
better than Tampa Bay, or they're no better than you know,
teams toiling and mediocrity. I mean, the Royals are playing
better than the Dodgers. The Brewers are playing better than
the Dodgers, and it's mainly due to the fact that
who would think that on August twenty fifth they'd have
some guy named Shehan starting the game? You know, I
don't think anyone expected this. But the Dodgers are set
up to be really good in the playoffs. I mean,
they'll have all of their starting pitchers back, including Sasaki,
so yeah, they'll be a decent team in the playoffs.
But for now, They're just mediocre at best, and when
they're top three, guys like Freeman, Betts and Otani are
not hitting. This team just knows dive. At the beginning
of the season, they had other guys to pick up
the slack, but now not so much. They do have
some young guys that they're put in their lineup they're
getting a little production out of, but it's just not enough.
Their bullpens and shambles ranked twenty one out of thirty
and they've been solidly twenty or worse for at least
the last two months. You know, trying and I really
like trying to but he hasn't been the same since
coming back. I haven't been using him lately. Uh, and
Cincinnati's bullpen's performing really well, Hunter Green.
Speaker 1: Look at his stats.
Speaker 2: If this guy played on the Yankees, man, they'd be
talking Cy Young Award, But because he plays for the Reds,
nobody talks about him. I mean a zero nine to
three whip in all those innings pitched, ninety one k's
I mean two sixty three year right, this guy, this
guy is amazing and he's got great numbers against these Dodgers.
In forty plus at bats against, I don't see how
you couldn't take Cincinnati here. I think the Dodgers after
a competitive series against their heated rival two games back
in their own division, I see the Dodgers foundering a
little bit here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So there's a couple of people in the chat
that have persistently asked about totals for the past, like
twenty minutes and if there's any overs on the card today,
and so I'll take the total angle here. I kind
of think there's gonna be runs, and I feel like
that's a little bit of a contrarian opinion because of
how well Green is pitched, But you're talking about a
total of eight here. One thing I noticed with these
two pitchers both are extreme flyball pitchers. Now, now Hanter
Green's let's a little caveat there is like he also
gets a ton of swing and miss, so it's not
like he's just giving up, you know, flyball after fly ball.
I mean, the guy will strike out twelve guys a game,
but you're still facing the Dodgers, Like, there are plenty
of options in this Dodgers lineup of guys that can
hit the ball in the ballpark. And Shean, on the
other hand, while I do like him, and you know,
he's I think there's a lot of upside there is
not Hunter Green, He's another guy that rarely gets ground balls.
So I look at these two lineups and say, you
know what, Yeah, there's probably at least one or two
balls leaving the ballpark here in this matchup. Because even Green,
I mean, you mean to tell me that he catches
too much of the zone against the Freeman or Artani,
they can hit him out, that's no problem. So I
think you get a couple home runs. One thing. You know,
the Reds definitely used up some pen. Yes, you know,
they used some bullpen on Friday and yesterday, and their
bullpen's not super deep as it is. And then TV
you made the point this year like the Dodgers bullpen,
even though there's some good arms down there, hasn't really
fully got it together. I just wanted to answer the
question of the chat. It's not something I'll play and
I don't consider myself a great total Sandy kapper, but
I saw this only being eight and I said, you
know what, there there's probably some undervalue here because I
do think you're dealing with two very good offenses, and
you also are dealing with two pitchers that will will
put the ball in the air a couple go out
might not be that difficul to get to eight. So
that's that's my very slight lean on this one. And
I wanted to answer the question in the chat. We
have like a ton of live viewers, which we very
much appreciate, so thank you guys all for showing up.
And you know, I think we can run a couple
of minutes longer today and in because we've got such
a great live audience. So we still need to lock
in a parlay Brian Leonard, have we talked about your
parlay leg or do you want to bring up a
different game to talk about here?
Speaker 3: Actually, let's let's go to Brandon, because neither one of
us to put in our parlor yet yet.
Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, I'm gonna go with the Brewers for my
parlay leg. And it's because Woodriff is a better picture
than Rodriguez. The Brewers are trying to win their division,
not locked up quite yet. And man Wood, I thought
I was expecting to see him be a little bit
slacking when when when he has so much time off,
he's just hit the ground running. He's been great Rodriguez
has a five plus. The ra Diamondbacks are playing for stats,
They're not really playing for anything else, and they're bullpens
not performing well. So give me the Brewers here. From
my parlay, leg I think it's minus one eighty.
Speaker 3: You can get a little bit better than that. I
won seventy three right now.
Speaker 1: And I'll let I mean, we'll talk about the game.
Go ahead, Brian, give us your opinion Brewers, d Bacs.
Speaker 3: My only concern is the Brewers don't need to win.
They talked about yesterday. I had the Brewers and they
it was it was Bob Yogre day, and everybody wanted
to win for Yocre and it was just a bad
decision by the manager to keep the closer in there
when he did, and that last mine because it was
clear he didn't have anything. So he ended up losing
that in the ninth inning. But the games don't mean
as much for Milwaukee right now. That's my only concern.
I'm going to unless you have anything to point out
on this, I'll just go to one of my my
parlay think trick.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, go go ahead, bring up your game. That's fine.
I really don't have much on dbacks for receiving.
Speaker 3: Yeah, since both of you guys give up pretty big favorites,
I've got to come in and take something with a
little bit more to give us a little bit on this.
There's there's three games I'm considering. One is Cabrera with
Miami against Stryder, one is Tampa Bay with Seymour against Biby,
and the other one is the Angels with Soriano against
the ground. Now, I can get the bigger number with Soriano,
but I think I'm gonna go with Tampa Bay with Seymour.
He's a lefty and Cleveland overall does not hit the
lefties as well as righties. And they haven't seen him,
they don't know anything about him, and he's looked really
good so far. He's got a limited and obviously he's
only thrown twenty three innings. But if you get a
lefty up there, and I've talked about this before, if
the teams haven't seen he's twenty six years old, so
he's not like a great prospect for them, But teams
tend to struggle, and if you take a look at
teams that are struggling Cleveland's offense, Cleveland's the last two
weeks has a fifty two WRC plus the next versus
Houston is sixty nine. Cleveland's offense is terrible. Now they're
going they're out of the playoffs. They only have a
five percent chance to make the playoffs, and I just
don't want any part of Cleveland. The last nine games
Cleveland's played, they scored five runs or more ones. You
don't score five runs in Major League Baseball, you don't win.
And so give me Tampa Bay here. We lost some value.
You could have gotten a lot better number of over
the course of the night. But we've got to play
with what we have right now. So we could get
basically a one plus one oh five on Tampa Bay.
That's what I'm going to use, just because I'm looking
to fade Cleveland team that's had higher expectations. And it
didn't help when when Bieber goes out for Toronto and
pitches fantastic and they get traded him away during the break.
So that's gotta be a little bit hurting for them
right now, going any part of my hometown team. So
I'll play Tampa Bay as part of the par like her.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll I mean, I'll just jump in on this
one quick this because I do have an opinion about
this game. Ian Seymour. This is another guy that, for
whatever reason, the Rays kind of was like, hey, we'll
call you up and we'll throw you in the bullpen,
even though that's really not what we had you do
all the way, you know, leading up to the big leagues.
I mean, Ian Seymour last year, this year at Triple
A when he was there was one of was arguably
the top starter in Triple A when he was there. Now,
obviously like guys come in and out, but I had
him ranked one for a good portion of the early
part of this season and then it's like, I don't know,
the Rays kind of decided, hey, I guess we need
another bullpen arm. They threw him in that spot at
Fenway Park earlier this year and he like got out
of the big jam to get them a win, and
I don't know they maybe they said, well, we you know,
maybe we can use them out of the bullpen. I
didn't love that for him. I didn't think that that
was the best scenario for him. You know, we talked
about last Friday the Pirates doing it with Ashcraft, and
then they did it with Chandler, you know, kind of
now they're gonna do it with Chandler. So I don't
know if some organizations have different sort of mindsets when
it comes to like bringing up a young guy, maybe
letting him get acclimated down in the bullpen. But I
think people are going to look at this and say, well,
he got pounded by the Yankees last time out. Yeah,
he had a bad outing three six inning or six
runs on six hits over three innings. This guy shouldn't
be coming out of a bullpen. Ian Seymour's starting pitcher. He's
going to be a starting pitcher in this raised rotation,
So I actually think he's going to be like that.
This is the opportunity he's been waiting for here to
get a start, and I think he you know, can
I mean the guardians, what else do we have to say?
They haven't hit anyone or anything, and can't imagine they've
seen much of Seymour. So, Brian, I think it's a
good call. I absolutely see some value on the race there.
Speaker 2: I agree with that too.
Speaker 1: All right, can you let us know because some of
these might have moved, but we haven't locked in yet,
so we've got Tiger's Brewers raised as a parlay. Can
you give me lines on each of them so I
can quote appropriate price here.
Speaker 3: Okay, Tigers other than Pinnacles still at that one to
eighty one. They're holding there unless there's the problem. But
everybody else is back up in the two hundred range,
so we're looking at about two dollars. Detroit Milwaukee is
about a one seventy three, and Tampa Bay is a
plus one oh five.
Speaker 1: All right, so we got Brian got a little plus
money in there to kick bath. It's not as bad
as I thought. Plus that that's a that's three ninety
plus three ninety. Obviously get it's gonna give or take,
you know, shop around on the parlays, but uh yeah,
we'll we'll take that. I thought it was gonna be worse.
So plus three ninety for the parlay. We've got Tigers
for me, Brewers for Tokyo branded, and then the raise
for for Brian Leonard. Very simple three sides today, Tigers
Brewers raise. That's the three teamer. That's plus three ninety. Wow.
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