Speaker 1: It is the last call Sunday here on wait Er Talk.
Happy Football season, everybody. I'm the prop Queen Ariel Epstein,
and I'm going to be doing the NFL season pretty
much every Sunday for the entire football season. We were
on Saturdays before, but we'll give that to Kelly in Vegas.
But Stay's show is going to be locked and loaded
with everybody that you need. We've got Yanni the Greek
coming on first. Then we've got John Murray from over
at the Westgate at Super Book in Las Vegas taking
a look behind the counter, letting you guys know all
of the sharp sides, all the needs we know. We
all want to be on the same side as Vegas
because Vegas has tall buildings and we are all poor
compared to them, so we have to make sure we
do what John Murray says.
Speaker 2: Ned.
Speaker 1: We've got Teddy Covers and pres is going to be
joining the show because the two of them have a
new show coming up and you could watch them during
this live show coming up at one pm Eastern time,
sweat out all their bets and be angry or be happy.
Hopefully they're happy. I guess anyway. It's the NFL season.
So we all love to be a little sits and
we all need a little help wherever we could get it.
So you could go to odds Logic dot com slash
prop queen today and you could use the odds Logic
screen to help you out with whatever you need to
look at all the line movement, make sure that you
can see where all the public sides are. So it's
oddslogic dot com slash prop queen. And I realized before
I bring on Yannie, and I just tweeted this out.
So I'm wearing my raven sweatshirt because it's my favorite
Raven sweatshirt and the Ravens play the Bills tonight. Obviously,
I noticed today that I haven't touched any of my
Ravens clothing since the divisional round. I've clearly been that
angry all year. So here we are happy September seventh.
It is the start official start of real football season
because now everybody's gonna play, except for, of course, the
Bears and the Vikings, but who cares, Sean Michael. We
are not talking strakeout props today. It's the NFL, and
let's bring on my great friend Yanni. The Greek Live
from Las Vegas, taken us all the sharp action on
the board. Yanni, Happy football season for the eightieth time.
Speaker 3: Absolutely, we've already been crushing over in college football. So
Week one of NFL got to be cautious. Though these
lines have been up for a long time, they've been
bet into probably their most efficient right now, so you
got to be very cautious. I'm seeing a lot of
buybacks already on some of the moves that happened.
Speaker 4: Earlier in the summer. So this is a very tricky week.
Speaker 3: Everyone's excited the fire, but you've got to be very
cautious and realized that we got a lot of football ahead.
You don't have to make all your money and profit
for twenty twenty five today. Just pick your spots, get
your money in good, learn what you can off week
one and on the week two.
Speaker 1: About call me a buyback the Giants. I saw that
go from Giants plus seven down, so as much as
plus five and a half, sew some buyback on the
Commanders to get them back to six and a half.
What do you see in that game?
Speaker 3: It shows you exactly how tight these lines are. In fact,
I work right now with three different groups that bet
NFL into these accounts, and I've seen them bet opposite
sign It's exactly like that, just because of a one,
one and a half point line move in the NFL.
And it just goes to show you how tight a
lot of these lines are and just how confident the
books are in these numbers, because again, they know they're
going to be able to write bets on the other side.
They're not going to get one side, but all they
have to do is move the line, and that's where you,
as a better it can take advantage. As far as
this game goes, I'm on the side with the Giants.
We took the Giants even at plus six, thought that
was the right side. Against Washington. It's more expecting a
regression from Washington this year. You can't actually like pinpoint
it in week one or week three or week seven
or anything like that, but you do expect them to
come into the season regressing off of last year. They
did get very lucky if you look at that data,
a lot of things fell their way, and more importantly
in this if you look at the history of these
two they play really tight games, like regardless of how
good or bad each team is. That particular season, they're
going to show up to play this game. And I
think that's why you saw a lot of short money
come in on the Giants early, but not surprised to
see the Washington money. Let's not forget the teasers are
open today, so betters are teasing these NFL football games,
and we saw it on Thursday night with the Eagles
where they were forced to move that lineup to protect
against the teasers.
Speaker 4: Now rest the short.
Speaker 3: Washington's getting teased down to minus a half minus, you know,
a pick on depending what number of teaser you're using.
But I think that's why we're also seeing these lines
start to climb a little bit on these favorites around
a touchdown because they have to protect themselves against the teasers,
which are really popular.
Speaker 1: Right now, that was my question for you, But now, Yanni,
you get to just go with whatever you got. What
do you got go?
Speaker 3: Let me go all right real quickly, because I know
there's baseball fans out there.
Speaker 4: Everyone wants football real quickly.
Speaker 3: Here's what we got based Yeah, yeah, I told you
guys on Friday before Game one. We've got five series.
We've got Cincinnata plus one twenty Milwaukee minus one forty,
Baltimore plus one eighty, Houston plus one ten San Francisco
Giants plus one thirty.
Speaker 5: Milwaukee and Baltimore already won.
Speaker 3: Those series bets for US at plus one eighty and
minus one forty, so it's almost a free roll right now.
In Cincinnati plus one twenty, Houston plus one ten San
Francisco plus one thirty. We need those teams to win
today to win those series bets, So just throwing that
out there. Keep your eye on those three. And here's
what we bet so far today in Major League Baseball
nine oh nine Washington plus one seventy five, nine oh
one under eight Milwaukee, Pittsburgh nine thirteen over eight, Cleveland,
Tampa nine sixteen Yankees minus the dollar fifty nine to
twenty five, Seattle plus the dollar five nine point thirty,
Arizona at even money, NFL all over the board. So
I'm just going to try to narrow down those that
I can confirm one sided sharp action, not multiple groups
on opposite side under in the Steelers Jets, first half
and full game under in the Jets Steelers Panthers Jaguars.
When they dropped down the forty five, you got some
steam on the over. I know, if you look at
the the logic number, it's gonna look like it got
sharp money on the under. Nothing gonna be further from
the truth. On those credit accounts, they bet the over
forty five and a half. Panthers Jacksonville. I told you
about the Giants plus the six Raiders, Raiders Raiders. Anytime
they could grab a three or better, they're they're taking
it on the Raiders. They also bet the under in
the Raiders game, Bucks Falcons. We saw early sharp action
on the Bucks. Since then it's been nothing but wise
guys taking the Falcons at plus two and a half,
and that's why that lines dropped down as well. Saw
the same thing with the Niner, Seattle Lions, Packers, wise
guy money on both sides, Rams on the money line.
And then finally in the Ravens and Bills, I'm seeing
one side in action starting to pile up on the
Ravens side. It'll be interesting to see if we get
any Bills sharp money later. And finally, Bengals Browns over
Bengals Browns over forty seven and a half. And I
bring that one up because already looking at the back end,
it's a little bit early, but the betters are all
starting a fire.
Speaker 4: And they're betting that one under.
Speaker 3: I love that. I love when I'm betting over again.
I'm not cheering for the recreational betters to lose. I'm
not booking them, but I do like when the negative
ev betters are opposite me. And right now I'm seeing
a lot of under money on Bengals Browns, and as
I said, I released four percent. I believe on the
over at forty seven and a half Bengals and the Browns.
Speaker 1: Oh okay. If that didn't answer all your questions, I
don't know it does Yaanni the Greek, thank you so
much as always for coming on last call Sunday with us.
Appreciate the baseball, the football. I'm looking at you making
sure anyone had any questions, but don't see any yet.
I guess one question I'll have before I let you go.
Someone here said tease all divisional games and thank me later.
What do you think of that?
Speaker 3: I think I don't know about all divisional games because
you take it individually and you only team's numbers.
Speaker 5: This is a great week to.
Speaker 3: Tease that the absolute mean error is ten point like
two off the the spread over the season that the
final score compared to the points spread in the NFL
is like ten points off. So even though we think
it's very efficient, it's still average ten points off. The
final score in week one it's below ten, it's like
nine point nine. Remember, you want the games to land
near the number if you're betting teasers. If you're betting teasers,
stick to these rules, and you're going to do just fine.
Only teas numbers, not teams. So you're looking to tease
through the three and through the seven. That's going to
give you an edge. If you're laying less than about
minus one twenty five or better, you'll make money over
the course of the season. But you gotta focus on
locking in those teasers that are going through three and seven.
Otherwise you're just not going to hit a high enough
percentage to win off of teasers. They juice them up
a little bit too high now to where it's very
hard to turn a profit if you're laying minus one
thirties that they're charging on these six point teasers. So
be cautious with that.
Speaker 1: Any teaser legs that you like today, ah.
Speaker 3: Yeah, looking real quick, I'll tell you right now. If
the games were going off right now, it's pretty easy
for me. I'll tell you what i'd be teasing. I'd
be teasing Miami if I could get them up to
seven and a half. I'd take Miami up to seven
and a half. I'd take Vegas up to eight and
a half.
Speaker 5: What else is there?
Speaker 3: Oh, I take Denver down to two and a half,
Detroit up to seven and a half, and that's pretty
much where we are unless you can get Buffalo up.
Speaker 5: To seven and a half as well.
Speaker 3: So again, I'm looking to only go through three and sevens.
That's the goal. We're teasing those numbers. If you don't
get it, then just bet it straight on the point spread.
I promise you you'll either make more money or lose
less money if you do that.
Speaker 4: Don't go chasing those teasers.
Speaker 3: On tasing down to minus ten, down to minus like four.
It's not helping you long term. I promise you that
it's not going to help you. That's a negative ev bet.
And never ever ever tease NFL totals. There's just too
much variance in scoring. Again, a rule you have to
have eliminate any totals from your NFL teasers. Stick to
teasing three and seven. You're gonna do just fine if
you're not laying heavy juice.
Speaker 1: We love it. Yanny the Greek, thank you so much.
Good luck with those, best night with me next week.
Speaker 3: Thanks, thank you, Erol.
Speaker 1: I know in the chat someone's asking what times the
Bill's game. The Bill's game is at eight twenty pm
Eastern Time, eight twenty pm Ravens Bills. I don't know
why that was crazy in the chat. I think we
have John Murray next. I'm not sure if he's here,
but I hope he is. John Murray, Are we here? No, Louie,
do we got him? All right? I'm gonna see if
Louie ends up texting me or something that we have
John Murray or not. But I guess I could go
through some of my plays. Do we have John? Okay?
I guess we could go through some things that stood
out to me. If we don't have John Murray yet,
John Murray's not sleeping, he's working. John is going to
be so excited to be here with me. Okay, let
me know when he is here or if we go
to Teddy? Okay, who do I like in the San
Francisco Seahawks game? I think Seahawks already's and teaser leg
at plus two and a half. The forty nine Ers
scare me with all their injuries. I actually do really
like the forty nine Ers overall this year, but Week one,
with potential injury to Christian McCaffrey, injuries to the wide receivers,
I'm a bit worried about that one. That's not one
of my sides for today. I like the Jaguars a lot.
Kelly isn't at it? John now, John get here. I
like the Jaguars a lot today. It's my best bet
at minus three and a half. I know it's now
four and a half. I just love that the Jaguars
can run the football against Carolina. I don't understand how
this number is as short as it is. With the
Jags at home. They got two running back in Travis
e Tn and Tank Bigsby that could run the ball
against this terrible Carolina defense. The rund gave up the
worst the most rushing yards per game last year. And
even though the Panthers and Bryce Young has like his
third season now underway, I don't trust their young wide receivers,
and I think that the Jags can at least The
problem with the Jags d is mostly against the runs,
so I don't know. I think they'll be fine. So
defensively they can run against Carolina. So Jags minus four
and a half mineus three and a half sounds like
you're only one on the path today. I guess we
could ask John Murray about that. Someone in the chat
also talked about Jamior Gibbs and the receiving yards. I
did get to do some research on that, so obviously
it makes the most sense because let me see my
stats on it. Jamiir Gibbs receiving yards. I literally wrote
this down and I'm trying to find my notes. But
obviously the matchups really good because the Packers did allow
They were bottom five and receiving yards allowed to running
backs last year. The problem I had with Gibbs is, oh,
here it is so twenty two and a half against
teams bottom ten in passing yards all excuse me, against
teams bottom ten against pass catching backs, Jamier Gibbs went
over twenty two and a half receiving yards in five
of those eight games. He went over in four of
six against the Division and three of four against Green Bay.
Since twenty twenty three, green Bay third most receiving yards
per game allowed to running backs. Sixty eight percent of
running backs went over the receiving yards prop against green
Bay last year, so Jamiir Gibbs over twenty two and
a half receiving yards is definitely a play you can
also underratedly look to Rico Daddle over his receiving yards
at seven and a half. Last year. He had eleven,
twenty eight and twenty four receiving yards against teams that
were bottom ten in the category, and Jacksonville allowed the
second at most receiving yards per games to running backs.
So definitely look there for Rico Dawdle as well keepers
receiving yards sts. So I don't like wide receiver props.
I know that that sounds really bad, but I don't
like wide receiver props because like, let's say, for example,
a team is bottom ten against pass catching running backs, well,
you probably only have one running back that comes out
of the backfield and it's a good pass catching back,
like so it narrows down your field. Same thing for
a team that's good against quarterbacks or bad against or sorry,
that's like bottom ten and passing yards allowed. If you
got to like there's one quarterback on the team. But
when you've got to go to wide receivers, now, you've
got to tell me that even though a team is terrible,
like maybe they're terrible against wide receivers and they allow
a ton of receiving yards per game, you've got to
pick between like four or five receivers. So I'd rather
choose quarterback props, running back props and tight end props,
and a tight end that you guys should look at
David and Joku when in Djoku in twenty twenty three
was with Joe Flacco. They played five games together and
in Djoku averaged seventy eight yards per game with Flaco's quarterback.
And we all know that Joe Flaco loves his tight ends.
Cincinnati third most receiving yard, third most receiving yards per
game to tight ends. Fifty four percent of tight ends
went over their prop last year. But Cincinnati's battinganst tight
ends and Joe Flacco loves his tight ends and him
and didn Joku had like two one hundred yard games.
So definitely looked at David and Joku today is another one.
I've got more props give him out throughout the show.
But Prez is now in the building. Happy football season
to our pres And I know that you're here because
you also are going to have some great new show
coming up at one o'clock and we all get to
watch you sweat, which is gonna be great.
Speaker 2: Uh good to be here. My microphone working everything good?
Yeah here, Yeah excellent. I'm like, this is a new studio.
I got my uh dead shirt on. I'm hosting at
one pm our live in game betting show and it's
gonna be a blast. I'm doing it right from this spot.
I've got a bank of TVs. I will show it
all later. I've got two computers on the corners. And Vivian,
my wife, decided to leave.
Speaker 5: Me for the day.
Speaker 1: Oh smart of her.
Speaker 2: Well, it's it's two reasons, Ariel. Once, she doesn't want
to hear me talk because I took over the entire
living room. And the second reason is, and it's the
reason why you guys should log in. I'm impossible to
be with on NFL Sunday. I don't know how I'm
gonna do this show. Like I usually pace, I throw
shit all over the place. I'm gonna have like a
stack of socks right here that.
Speaker 1: So that I don't break break your TV. I think
breaking your TV would be.
Speaker 2: Bed, my pen, my notebook, glasses. Okay, we got an
NFL Sunday going NFL Sunday.
Speaker 1: So which game is the one that you're gonna be
the most locked in on today?
Speaker 2: Well, so the first game I'm gonna the first game
for me that I'm gonna pay most attention to that
will be on the big TV set will likely be
Tampa Bay in Atlanta. The Detroit and Green Bay game
will be a featured game for the later And obviously
I'm salivating over the Buffalo Baltimore game going tonight. I
just can't wait for that game to start. Talk about
all the marbles early. It's like college football season.
Speaker 1: You got your coffee ready to go to. What is
it about the Buffalo and the Baltimore game that you'll
be most keyed in on?
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, listen, you know, I like Buffalo. I
like the over in that game. I like Lamar for
rushing yards, Josh Allen for rushing yards. What I think
is going to be what I really like tonight is
those two rushing props. Because we're early in the season
and these offenses are not fully clicking yet. It takes
three or four weeks, and I think they're gonna be breakdowns.
And I think that bodes well with those two quarterbacks specifically.
I think we see them run more early than later,
as you know later on they're gonna have play. They're
just going to be more in sync as a unit.
So I like prop bet wise both of those quarterbacks
to go over the total in their rushing yards. And
I understand that square. I don't look at bets whether
they're square or not square. I look at bets whether
I think they're gonna win or not win.
Speaker 1: Well, we've got John Murray Whedon in the wings right now,
so Prize, give us your best bets for the day.
Speaker 2: Well, how about name a game I'll throw it at.
I'll tell you name a game. I don't know.
Speaker 1: I'm not going to go through the whole coast.
Speaker 2: Okay, Miami. I like Miami against Indianapolis. I like Washington
against the Giants. I think everyone is looking at this
Miami team as if they've completely fallen off a cliff.
This is a team that went healthy two years ago,
was beating almost every team in the league. This is
a team that's stacked on offense, absolutely loaded. Now I
understand it's going to come down to whether Tour can
get it done or not. He's been practicing all summer
with Waddle. Everything coming out of the dress changing room
is that those two have incredible chemistry. Waddle over in
receiving yards might be an interesting bet to look at
as well. And Danny Dimes in Indianapolis, I see this
team as maybe even including New Orleans, maybe a team
that lacks the most depth in all of football. And
I don't even like their starters, so I think they're
lacking in their front seven, They're lacking in their secondary,
They're lacking in wide receiver. They're running back is super old,
they're tight ended whatever. And Danny Dimes, I think Miami
me is to play against Indianapolis, even though there is
some smart money coming in on Indy.
Speaker 1: Everybody, make sure to go check out Pres and Teddy
covers today. They are both going to be on at
one pm Eastern Time, live streaming everything. It's called end
Zone Live, so make sure to check it out one
pm on Sundays so you could watch them sweat out
their bets. Prez, thanks for happing on with us, we'll
see at one pm.
Speaker 2: Here, I'm wait to talk awesome guys.
Speaker 1: Be well. The man has awoken. I don't know where
he was, but I know that only the best come
in a little late, because that's how it works around here.
Only the best, right John Murray, John Murray from over
in Las Vegas at the super Book at the Westgate. John,
it's like the Queen is never late. Everyone else is
just early.
Speaker 4: Your friend told me to be on the show at
eight twenty in the morning. What are you talking about.
Speaker 1: I was not aware of the time that she told you.
Speaker 4: I was just listening to pres That's very that's very impressive.
Is just like, name a game and I'll tell you
who's gonna win. This guy like this guy's like, I'm
gonna go through the whole car.
Speaker 1: I do that with John Murray.
Speaker 4: But that's a that's a Matthew McConaughey two for the
money stuff there. Yeah, sure, name the game, I'll give
you the winner. I wish I could do that, matt Yeah.
Speaker 1: You feel you could just go through. You just love
football that much that you could go through every game.
Speaker 4: I I definitely don't feel that way. I'd be I'd
be happy just to pick one winner today. I think
NFL is tough. The NFL is very difficult. It's very
it's not easy to pick the board in the NFL.
Speaker 1: Well, you guys are just too good at it. That's
that's funky. A bunch of games that have had some
weird movement, John, But I guess we could start with
what you guys have seen over there out in Las Vegas.
What what sides have you guys been hit hardest?
Speaker 4: I would say Cleveland is won. Cleveland's come down a lot.
We're we're sitting at the Bengals minus four and a
half right now. There's definitely a lot of money on
the Browns in that game. I'd have to say Atlanta.
So Tampa Bay was a side that they played all summer.
They pushed us up as high as Tampa Bay minus
two and a half. But the Buccaneers have some key
guys out today, and I think that's why you saw
money come in on Atlanta. Here in the last let's
call it seventy two hours, Denver keeps getting met up.
Denver's all the way up to a nine point favorite
minus four point fifty on the money line here at
the West Gate obviously that's going to be a very
popular survivor play for people that are into that sort
of thing.
Speaker 1: I am a little worried about this. Denver Broncokelly in Vegas.
Speaker 4: I don't know, No Kelly, Yeah, your friend Kelly. She's
all in, so you know, she'll be real pleasant. If
the Titans are up in the third quarter today, she'll
be a I'll have to turn off and then I'll say,
oh god, I'll say the Giants. The Giants are a team.
They were plus seven. There was a lot of sharp
money at plus seven. We've settled in at six. Right now,
we got as low five and a half set.
Speaker 1: Excusing me, you're getting like there's a lot of Washington.
Speaker 4: Yeah, there is. Money's come back on Washington and the
public is on Washington. And I'm looking at our numbers
right now. It looks like it looks like the Giants
are going to be one of our biggest needs of
the morning, if not our biggest need of the morning.
The Giants and Cleveland as well. So there'll be to
two games we're really rooting for. That's That's what I
missed about the NFL area is like you get into
work on a Sunday morning, and it's like, what are
you rooting for? Well, I'm rooting for the worst teams
in the league, with the worst quarterbacks and the dumbest coaches. Actually,
those two teams have pretty good coaches, but in general,
usually on a Sunday morning, we're sitting here rooting for
the drek of the NFL. It's tough. It's a tough job.
Not everybody could do this job.
Speaker 1: No, we give you a lot of credit, John Murray,
thank you the late games tonight. My team, my Baltimore Ravens.
What do you guys need in that game?
Speaker 4: That's an awesome game. So there's been a lot of
money bet on that game. Baltimore flipped to the favorite
this week when some sharp money came in on the Ravens.
We've got Ravens minus one. Sharp money on the total
as well. Under they bet that game under fifty three
and a half. Fifty three, we're down to fifty one.
It's too early to even say what we're gonna need
in that game. It's essentially a pickham game. Both very
popular teams. We're booking the game at minus one oh
five both ways, so the volume on the game is
going to be really, really, really good. I'm not even sure.
If I had to bet, I'd say we'll probably need
the bills, but it's a little bit early to say.
Speaker 1: I feel like a lot of people are also on
the under in the Jets and Steelers game because nobody
has faith in either of these offenses. How much of
a need would that I guess over?
Speaker 4: You know right now? The total? Yeah, we do need
the over. Oh good call, you know your stuff. Man,
We do need the over in that game. But what
we really need is the New York Jets. So the
Steelers are getting a lot of play. We had some
buyback on the Jets this morning at plus three minus
one sixteen, which moved us to plus three flat. But
there's a lot of money on the Steelers, a lot
of parlays with the Steelers. Tough game. That game is
a tough watch. I mean, can we be honest, does
anybody really want to watch? Those two quarterbacks are like
my age? I don't know.
Speaker 1: That's the game we're stuck with here in New York.
Speaker 4: No, no, you guys can't watch the Giants and the Commanders.
Speaker 1: No, we get both one CBS and one's Fox.
Speaker 4: We got to get you like an NFL package or something.
You're you're a media media person, Okay, I like the firestick. Well,
you can come, you can come sit in my office.
I got all the games on TV VE Uh.
Speaker 1: Maybe Kelly will Kelly and then you'll give us a
sweet Yes.
Speaker 4: I can live with that arrangement.
Speaker 1: Yes, that you know what he's about the Texans and
the Rams.
Speaker 4: By the way, you know, just as we're sitting here,
more sharp money just came in on Washington at six.
So that that that's a very interesting game because it's
been all Giants for a while and now it's coming
back on the Commanders. It was again Houston in LA.
That's a funny game. That's a very that's a good
matchup team two teams that made it to the second
round of the playoffs last year. And I don't hear
anything about that game. I mean, right now we need
Houston for sure. There's a lot of money on the Rams,
but there's not a lot of I just don't hear
much about that game. More of the afternoon, all the
attentions being played to Denver because of the money line. Parlays.
Detroit Green Bay is probably the best game of the afternoon,
and then there's been tons of money on Seattle the
last forty eight hours, and that that RAM game has
kind of got lost in the shovel.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I did hear some things about Seattle. I saw
that line move as well. What's your favorite play of
the day, David wants to know.
Speaker 4: Oh, my god, David, what what do you care with
my favorite play? I don't know. I played. I do
a show with Sam Paniatovich, who's a great mutual friend
of ours, and he makes us, you know, gun to
my head. We both have to pick a game at
the end of the segment.
Speaker 1: He actually would put a gun to your head.
Speaker 4: Yeah, he would, he would a real god. No, No,
he picked the Raiders. I picked the Lions. I like
the Lions a little bit in that spot. I think
Green Bay is getting a little too much hype coming
into the season. Micah Parsons is available today. I'm sure
he's been working out all off season, but there's no
way he's one hundred percent right and he's going to
be learning a new defense Detroit. I went with Detroit
and I used Detroit.
Speaker 1: The line was a little fishy jam because you guys
had green Bay minus two and a half all this time,
if that game was you know, if Detroit was as
good as they should be with the exact roster they
have versus this Green Bay team that's all banged up
with their receivers. Yeah, I'm like, why is this not
one and a half? Then?
Speaker 4: Well, I think we are down to Green Bay one
and a half now because there has been some sharp
money on Detroit. But I think there's a couple of
there's a couple of variables there with Detroit breaking in
two new coordinators. Remember, they lost their offensive end defensive coordinator.
Both got head coaching jobs in the offseason, and their
defense was so banged up at the end of last season.
But I think people are forgetting just how good Detroit is.
They lost that game to Washington because Jared Goff played
a terrible game and their entire secondary was hurt. That's
why they lost that game. They get their team healthy again,
I think Detroit's going to remind people that they're probably
the best team in the NFC other than Philadelphia.
Speaker 1: Yes, we'll find out, John Murray, anything else that stands
out to you before I let you go, I don't know.
Speaker 4: I mean, we got Monday Night Football tomorrow. There was
a lot of sharp money on Minnesota, but we have
seen a little bit of playback on the Bears in
the last call it twenty four hours, so now it's
not as much of a decision. It should be an
interesting game. Tough day for the book. Yesterday on college football,
we did not have a good day, So very excited
to have the NFL back. Hopefully we get some better
results here on.
Speaker 1: Oh and one more question. Someone asked about my own Miami.
Speaker 4: You know, my so Miami is a game. There has
been a lot of sharp money on and I did
hear pres. I mean, I know, I know he knows
every outcome, but I agreed with what he said about
the Dolphin game. I think Indianapolis has one of the
worst rosters in the league, and it's hard for me
to believe that Daniel Jones is going to be able
to go in there and succeed Miami until Tua gets hurt,
which you will. Miami is usually pretty good when Tua
is in the lineup. Miami is a pretty good team.
He's gonna get injured, maybe today, but he's gonna get
injured and then they're gonna be terrible. But until that
day comes. The Dolphins are usually pretty good. We'll see
there has been some sharp money on Miami against the Colts.
Pretty good game.
Speaker 1: He's the best. John Murray catch him over at the
West Gate at the Super Book in Las Vegas. People
in the chat said, they've met you, and you're a
really nice guy. I mean, it's good to have a
nice friend.
Speaker 4: Yes, oh, I love I love the people. I'm a
true man of the people. I loved.
Speaker 1: He is a man of the people. And they keep
trying to let you go. And then someone else brings
in another question. Titaned ce Pat's Raiders.
Speaker 4: Who screens the questions like what if the question was
really rude, would it make it through the airs that.
Speaker 1: We just don't post it. But actually a lot of
the times I get rude questions and I like to
address them.
Speaker 4: Wow, people are rude to you, but you're so nice.
I think Patriots Raiders would be the game out of
the whole board where we saw the most action from
wise guys in the summer on the Raiders. So this
game at one point was Raiders plus three and a half.
We're down to Raiders plus two and a half. Even
right now, there's been a lot of anti New England
money in the market the last couple of weeks. In
Game one and on the Patriots win total betting them under,
so a lot of money come in on the Raiders.
I saw the weather reports this morning. It looks like
it's going to be not a great day in Foxborough.
Will see who that favors. A lot of hype around
New England. With Mike Vrabel as the head coach there,
we'll see. I think the are gonna be better this year.
You know, they finally got a real coach and a
real QB. There is some talent on that team, Brock Bauers,
Max Crosby, They got a few players Raiders. Your buddy
Sam Pee is on the Raiders today area, So there
you go.
Speaker 1: Ooh okay. I think he just is a Vegas homer.
I think he wants to live there.
Speaker 4: I think he's anti New England. That's what I think
it is. To be honest with you, I think he's
anti Boston.
Speaker 1: He should be. Andrew asked an off the CUSP question,
and I give it a lot of respect. Can you
ask about the US Open final and where the money is?
Speaker 4: Oh that's a great question.
Speaker 1: I love Andrew I love this.
Speaker 4: Give me a second. There I've been, I've been all
NFL mode, but I do want to watch that. So
right now we've got Janick Center minus one thirty, Alcoraz
plus one ten. Most of the money's on Alcoraz. Looks
like some sharp players took Alcoraz plus one fifteen. That's
why we're at plus one ten right now. That is
good stuff. I will definitely be watching. I will be
watching that for sure. There's no English Premier League today.
That's why you have my undivided attention, so I can
watch the US Open when that.
Speaker 1: Real football, the real football, John Murray, Okay, last question
I promised Sean Michael. You know, is Ariel your favorite?
Speaker 4: My favorite out of what, like what pool of people
in my favor my favorite person on the planet Earth.
She's up there, well, very probably probably one of my
favorite of the young the young ladies in the gambling space.
There's a lot of terrific ones, but I think Ariel
is very, very high towards the top of that list.
Speaker 1: Will never put me versus Kelly. But if it's the
s day of the week, I might like at the
end of today, I might ask John if he likes
me more than Kelly.
Speaker 4: We'll see. We'll see how today goes.
Speaker 1: Oh my god, they're dissing her in the chat. Bad
Kelly goes.
Speaker 4: Come on, don't be going after Kelly. Kelly.
Speaker 1: City Order.
Speaker 4: Oh, Usually when Emmy and I go there, we usually
get half. I think it's half medium, half Cajun butter wings.
That's usually the try the Cajun butter, and then I
guess I don't. I don't usually get like the hot
because I'm usually ordering for a whole bunch of people,
so I want it to be a little bit more
like something everybody can have, So I usually go half medium,
half Cajun butter.
Speaker 1: That's the stuff people have to know. John Murray from
over at the Ice Skate Superbuck. We love having you on,
John Murray, thanks so much, and hopefully you guys don't Wednesday.
Speaker 4: Well, thank you for that send off. I'll talk to
you next week.
Speaker 1: See you next week. Dam last on last call. It
is the one and only Eddy Covers Teddy, Hi, Happy Sunday.
Speaker 6: Congratulations Ariol you worked with Bill Simmons Now and Company.
Speaker 5: Good for you. That's good to you.
Speaker 1: I get to have you guys on Sundays. Bill on Thursdays.
It's a great time over and football season. How are you, Teddy?
How was your Saturday?
Speaker 5: Not as good as I would have hoped? Leave it
at debt.
Speaker 1: Feel like everyone has bad Saturday. So we need to
have a really good Sunday.
Speaker 5: Okay, I'll take a good Sunday.
Speaker 1: We love a good Sunday. We've already talked a lot
of different sharp sides. We've talked from John Murray and Yannie,
and Prez gave us a little bit of action. I
know you and Pres are going to be sitting there
watching games at one o'clock here on wager talk together.
Good luck to you. What are you going to be
most keyed in on?
Speaker 5: So I'm not someone the keys in on any game?
All right? This is how well, this is what I
do on NFL Sundays.
Speaker 4: All Right.
Speaker 6: I sit in my chair over there, which I'm not
gonna be able to do for the first half of
these games. While I'm talking to Pres. I've got three
TVs up over here. Okay, I've got my laptop in
my lap, and on the three TVs, I got three
games and then three more that I click.
Speaker 5: Back and forth to and everything on commercial.
Speaker 6: So I'm monitoring six games and watching everything in my
laptop and going through box scores and taking notes. Obviously,
I mean everything that I do on Sundays during the
games is in an effort to make better bets, either
today or next week. So I'm always taking notes, putting
notes together for opening line reports. Something I see, something
that catches my eye, something I noticed in the box scores,
something announcer says, it ends up in my notes, and
then I revised those notes later after the games, when
I'm going through the box scores and the recaps and
all of that in prep for the opening line report
on Monday morning, bright and early eight am here Pacific time.
Speaker 5: So I mean Sunday is a long day.
Speaker 6: It's an intense day, you know, if you don't finish
my work till close to midnight after the games are done,
and I start in earnest going through all the box
scores and all that as soon as the Sunday night
game starts.
Speaker 5: So the fact that I'm doing, you.
Speaker 6: Know, I've never I think today, maybe in all the
years I've been in Vegas, they might be the first
time I've been on air on Sunday. I never accept
gigs on Sunday because Sunday is such a busy day.
Speaker 1: For me, so it's hard to be while you're on
air to the games. I've done it.
Speaker 5: I have no idea how my hunches.
Speaker 6: I'm not going to be much of a good contributor
because I'm watching and I'm not talking, so uh but
we'll see how it plays out. And of course getting
to spend the morning with press is always fun.
Speaker 1: What do you like today, Teddy?
Speaker 5: For the clients? Am I giving out all my client
plays right now? Or how does this?
Speaker 4: Well?
Speaker 1: What I mean, you tell me what you would like
to give out.
Speaker 5: And then what's the protocol here? I mean, I got,
I got, I got three plays for the clients.
Speaker 6: One of them is a five percent, so uh you
I'm going to give out everything you want to give
out one and that I mean.
Speaker 5: So I've had the Raiders up as a free play
all summer. That's not there anymore.
Speaker 1: But they're at.
Speaker 6: Yeah, and that was a plus three and then the
plus threes are gone. They've been gone for the last
week or so. That's why, you.
Speaker 5: Know, the only reason to make a bet in the summer.
Speaker 6: When you have a line that's not going to be
there come Week one, and that was the case for
the Raiders.
Speaker 5: That is why I put it up as early as
I did.
Speaker 6: As soon as we saw that that line wasn't gonna hold,
we got down on the Raiders plus the field going
vise the clients to do the same.
Speaker 5: So, but.
Speaker 1: Sean Michael wants to know, if you like Miami, that's.
Speaker 6: An impossible game for me. It's I mean, any game
where I'm going back and forth and back and forth
and back and forth, I don't play, you know, And
I worry about Miami's office of Loman. I heard John
Murray talk about how the Colts have the least talented roster,
one of the least talented rosters in the league. One
of the things that is one of the strengths of
that roster is the defensive line, and that to me
is maybe a problematic matchup against Miami, who is not
strong upfront. So if Indy's able to control the line
of scrimmage, that could well be a problem for the
Dolphins offense. At the same time, when we look at
you know, we've seen the money come from in this morning,
and I'm not sure if it's anti Miami money or
pro Indy money. But certainly from a powering standpoint, when
you have a scenario where the quarterback battle is won
by the more experienced but probably less talented QB, that
tends to be a positive thing in the short term.
All Right, you have Danny Dimes behind center. No, Danny
Dimes is not going to win your Super Bowl, but
he's also not going to screw up the game, as
Anthony richardson Mike, So that could be a positive for Andy.
Slightest of leans to the under in that game. But
I can't play an under knowing what Miami wants to do.
You know, Miami wants to hit big plays, and I
worry about Indy secondary. You know that's a I worry
about Miami secondary. I worry about both secondaries or really
so if you have secondaries you don't trust and at
least one of the two teams wants to take shots.
It's not an under that I'm super excited about. And again,
it's Week one, all right, I made three bets today.
All Right, the long season, we're not gonna be involved
in every game. We're not gonna be involved in the
majority of games. You know, tap the breaks, be patient,
wait for good opportunities Week two, Week three. I love
the NFL Week one. I mean, look at how little
these lines are moving right now, all right on your
standard NFL Sunday, the screen is gonna be painted black,
you know, because these games have been bet for the
last five months.
Speaker 5: They're not being painted black the same way.
Speaker 1: People in the chat want to know what your thoughts
are on Bengals and Browns.
Speaker 6: So I put up a free play video and you
can look at my homepage w dot buzz backslast tc
on this game making a.
Speaker 5: Case for Cincinnati minus the points.
Speaker 6: And that's the why I could play it all right,
wise guy's already betting Bengals, you know. I'm seeing four
and a half's out there now with the leading indicator
books already bet the Browns and are continuing to bet
the Browns. In my opinion week one, I'm not trying
to be cute. I don't want my money on the
worst teams. I don't want my money on the very
bad teams. And I think Cleveland is one of the
worst teams. And the fact that it's Week one, people
may have forgotten how big and look Joe Flacco is
a name we all know, all right. Flacco has been
around the league, he's won a super Bowl. He had
a remarkable run with Cleveland a few years back. But
if you're greating out NFL quarterbacks, if he's not, you know,
I mean, you know, there aren't many quarterbacks that I
have ranked below Joe Flacco going into the season.
Speaker 5: Flacco is ancient.
Speaker 6: The office of line is dicey, and all he's done,
the success, the limited success he had, the one he
just chucks it up there unlets his receivers make plays,
and that'll work against bad defenses. And there's a thought
process out there that since he has a bad defense,
and certainly they did last year and in the preseason
the defense looked downright ugly. That said, if you read
any of the quotes in precon al, Golden was talking about, Hey,
new coordinator, by the way, Notre Dame's DC last year
is now in the NFL for Cincinnati, and he said,
we're not showing anything. Everything's base coverage. We're going very
vanilla in August. So there'll be some wrinkles that aren't
on film yet that I'm not sure that Cleveland has
seen yet. In Cleveland's just a bad team since your
past and there's another there's urgency for Cincinnati. They've had
all of these bad starts, bad starts, bad start. You
look at their schedule this year. If they get off
to an Owen two start, they're in trouble, you know.
So it's Bengals are passed for me. I don't want
the Browns.
Speaker 1: And then someone else asked about the Giants and Commanders game.
Speaker 5: Good game, huh, interesting game?
Speaker 1: Interesting game.
Speaker 6: Sure, So there's a fair bit of anti Washington sentiment
in the betting markets. I agree with some of that.
Center Washington last year, much of their success was predicated
by the fact that if you look at the quarterbacks
they played over the back half of the season, or
as John Murray was talking about, the Lions defense didn't
have anybody left.
Speaker 5: In the playoffs.
Speaker 6: Some of the run that Washington had last year was
based on the flaws and weaknesses of their opponents. They
made a bunch of win now moves this offseason, you know,
bringing in veterans and not bringing in young guys. They're
bringing in, Hey, let's win right now. And they signed McLaurin,
which was huge. They had to do it, and they
paid them, and that's immediately made them better than they
were the Giants or a team that had a really
flashy preseason. They scored thirty plus in every game, they
had a great quarterback rotation. Russell Wilson looked okay, Jackson
Dart looked okay, as supposed to.
Speaker 5: There's a they have a group of plays, a.
Speaker 6: Package designed for Jackson Dart today, specifically for the rookie QB,
so he might get a series or two. That's very
possible for the Gmail and the g Men look strong
up front defensively, that's a positive sign. And when you
talk about a base value equation of teams that were
bottom feeders last year, and there's a decent chance the
Giants won't be quite as bad this year, legitimately is
so in that sense, I would lean towards the GM
in but the markets have leaned towards the g Men
all summer, you know. And at six, it's not a
game where I want to see the Giants hang tough
and then play a good game before I bet them
to do it. I'm not putting them in the same
category as Cleveland of a team that I have to fade,
you know, I want no part of I think the
Giants are better than the Browns, but how much better we'll.
Speaker 5: Find out today.
Speaker 1: The Seahawks Niners game is really interesting. I saw that
line go from two and a half to one and
a half or three and a half to two, Like
I've just seen that line bounce around a bunch. I've
heard from John Murray now that they're getting a bunch
of money on the Seahawks. I feel like people have
been high on the Niners because it's easy schedule, but
they've got some injuries. What do you think between the
Niners and the Seahawks.
Speaker 6: So it's an interesting scenario for San France, all right,
because there's a whole thought process out there that the
Niners are gonna be good this year because their schedule
is weak. And certainly, Shanahan off a bad season, has
never had two bad season in a row.
Speaker 5: He's bounce back strong. They got younger.
Speaker 6: And leaner in the off season, a lot of veterans,
you know, a lot of the veteran leaders on that
team being jettison in the offseason. Brock Perty had to
get paid, and once your quarterback gets paid, it's a
whole different salary cap structure. So you know, you see
teams like Cincinnati, like San Francisco that are top heavy,
where you know the key guys are getting paid, and
then as you go down the roster if they get injured,
the depth isn't necessarily there. But I got a lot
of concerns about the forty nine ers. I don't like
their receiving core right now. The receiving course is Ricky
Piersoll and pray for Rain. I mean it's it's it
really is not as limited. I know another another guy,
an aging George Kittle, but it's not a receiving course
that's loaded with playmaking weapons right now.
Speaker 5: I worry about the defense.
Speaker 6: They have a stud on each level and a bunch
of question marks, a lot of turnover on that defense.
They was like, oh, Robert Salaz, there they'll be fine,
you know, Oh they have an easy schedule. They'll be fine.
From a week by week standpoint. Maybe they will be
week one at Seattle. I think they're in for a battle.
If I'm playing that game, it would be the Seahawks
or a pass. I want no part of San Francisco's
roadchalk week one, and again, this is a line. San
fran was two and a half one and a half
two and a half all summer when we thought they
were going to be healthy, and when you watch.
Speaker 5: That team in August, they weren't bet on. They flat out.
Speaker 1: Work Teddy Covers as always, thank you for coming on here.
I know that you got a show with Kelly in
Vegas tomorrow around eleven forty five am Easter.
Speaker 5: Time, eleven am.
Speaker 6: Every single Monday during football season eastern eight am Pacific time,
each and every week, Kelly and I break down the
entire NFL slates for the coming week, called the NFL
Opening Line Report. It's the best show on wager Talk,
not even close by far. So if you never watched it,
be sure to tune in tomorrow eight am Pacific, eleven
am Eastern. You can always watch a replay on YouTube
every game on the board, and we plow through a
ton of info, so it's not a pick show, it's
an info show. If you want the info, check it out.
I personally, again, I'm confident it's the best show on
wager Talk, not.
Speaker 1: Close, no biased at all, Teddy Covers check him out
there tomorrow and also one pm with him in pres
today watching games on end Zone live here on waig Talk,
and we are going to wrap up the show now,
TEDI thank you so much. Teddy is also always giving
out client plays, so make sure check outus five percent play,
which he says he has posted over there. But for me,
I guess I'll tell you one more play that I like.
Out of the props. Tampa's quarterback Baker Mayfield over thirteen
and a half rushing yards. He's gone over this in
seven of eight road games last year against teams that
were bottom ten against quarterbacks. Well mobile quarterbacks are bottom
ten in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks, so everyone phrase it.
He went over in one, two, three, four, five, six
of seven games. Ellen allowed the third most rushing yards
for games quarterbacks last year at twenty nine yards a game.
Sixty five percent of qbs went over their rushing yards
prop against the Falcons. The Falcons were just awful at
getting to the quarterback, thirtieth in pressury and thirty first
in sacks. So check out Baker Mayfield over thirteen and
a half rushing yards today. Thank you everybody for joining
here on last call. Thank you to Yanni the Creek,
to Press, to John Murray, and to Teddy Covers. I'm
the brod Queen Ariel Epstein, Louis in the back. Thanks
for God in the show. We will see you guys
next Sunday. Here on Waiter Stops, Last Cop