Speaker 1: All right, guys, welcome in. It is Thursday, fourth of July.
Speaker 2: Eve.
Speaker 1: It's July third, also known as the day between my
birthday and fourth of July.
Speaker 2: My birthday was yesterday.
Speaker 1: I just had the most unhealthy breakfast you could ever imagine,
which was just the leftover cake from last night. Had
a nice winner with the Tigers yesterday, so it was
a good birthday for me. Appreciate all the birthday wishes
in the chat. And it's a Thursday, a little bit
of a slower day. We had nineteen games yesterday or
eighteen and a half games yesterday, A crazy day of
baseball all day. Today, we've got a little bit more time,
so I'm going to take the time to ask you guys,
how you're doing. We'll go to Brian Leonard first. Hopefully
everyone's having a great week.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 4: For the people who were able to get that continuation game,
it worked out well for us and then they got
the victory. Unfortunately, I did not play it to one
of those public books, but I found and by the way,
we won our parlay two days ago. We lost it
yesterday because of me. I had the first five over
in the Miami game, and I thought about it, and
I think I found a weakness in my handicapping.
Speaker 3: And I've been doing.
Speaker 4: This for forty five years. In that rough range, you're always
trying to better yourself. And one of the things that
I played yesterday, I played the Minnesota first five over,
even though they're in a slump. And I thought about
it and I said, well, I also lost for my
clients yesterday on the Cardinals against Pittsburgh, a team who
was pitching out of their minds. And then I thought
back when the Yankees were playing just a week or
two ago. I put out a play A part of
my parlay was the Yankees because we thought it was
such a great value on the Yankees and they were
in a major slump and we lost it. And I've
always paid more attention to bigger sample sizes. I've always
been told, you know, that anything that's bigger has more importance.
Brandon just the opposite. If you see his numbers, and
he talks about this all the time, what they've done lately,
and he is proven. You know, I don't want to
blow anything up, blowing smoke. You don't need anything else, tokyo,
but he's proven he's very good at this and then
I thought about it, I says, you know what, maybe
I should pay more attention to what they have done
lately that may have kept me off of those games.
So you've you've warned me, you've you've broken me down
a little bit on that, On that, Brandon, and but
I just wanted to point out that we all have
weaknesses in our games, no matter how long you've been
doing it. Sometimes you fall into you know, you're not
winning on underdogs, you give up underdogs, or you're not
winning off favorites so you can't play favorites. Just keep
in mind that you're always trying to improve yourself and
hopefully I can do that for you guys on my
play today, because I did cost us that part of yesterday.
Speaker 5: My weakness is Asian women in tight leather pants. But
besides that, I have a five percent play out today.
Speaker 3: Guys.
Speaker 5: I think Adam does two in MLB Small Slate. But
it's kind of interesting we both found something we like
enough to make a five percent play out of it.
I am going to do a quick little rant on losers.
Just give me one quick minute here, and if anyone
in the chat knows which TV show this is from,
put it in the comments. First person, I'm gonna give
you Mike Today's five percent play for free. I'm gonna
DM it to you on X. But the Brewers are losers.
Do you know what show that's from? Put it in
the comments. They are losers because they had a really
good chance to take out the Mets in two games
and they just laid down and play dead. In game two,
they had the better pitching matchup. They are less talented. No,
it's not from Seinfeld, guys, because they're losers. You should
know that what show that is, guys, It's just show
that I love beside Seinfeld. But anyways, they had a
chance to take out the Mets and just stick a
dagger in them, and they let them go free. They
let Lindor get hot, they let Nemo get hot. Now
these Mets, they're going to be on fire and they're
going to crush the Brewers today. In my opinion, the
Brewers had a chance to sweep this team, a team
that's two times more talented than they are, and they
just let them off the hook, and they looked dead
in that game. The Brewer the Mets. The Mets were
struggling to score even two or three runs the whole week,
and they let Lindor hit a Grand Slam. They let no, no, no,
you guys are all wrong. So for oh you got it,
you got it, Judge Judy. Yes, I love Judge Judy
by the way. But anyways, because they're losers, you know
that one, right? Okay, anyways, that's that's my rant. I'll
cut it off there. But man, this is why teams
like the Milwaukee Brewers will never sniff the World Series
because they're losers. They're losers, and and they let the
Mets off the hook, and the Mets are going to
crush them. The Mets, the Met this is a team.
They're going to be challenged at the end of the
postseason to try and get into the playoffs. The Brewers
season is over. Sorry, that's my rank.
Speaker 1: This is I'm glad that you just went on that
tirade right there, because.
Speaker 2: It's a great segue, the guys.
Speaker 1: It's a great it's a great segue into our first game,
which is gonna be Brewers and Mets. Now listen, I
think you're you're overstating, Like the Brewers losing the second
leg of a doubleheader after they w like that, that
game last night was was really not a big deal
for the Brewers in my opinion, Like I don't take
I don't think the Brewers could get care less about
what the Mets are doing it like these are like
the Brewers don't go into that series and say we
got to step on the Mets throats, like they go in, Hey,
we got the first one, let's see how the second
one goes.
Speaker 2: Okay, Miss Rowski doesn't really have it. Let's move on
to tomorrow.
Speaker 1: Where I agree with you, Tokyo Brandon, is that could
be the game that wakes the Mets up. And I
do think you are going to see the Mets start
to win games going forward, not because I have anything
to do with the Brewers, but because there's still a
really good baseball team that needed something positive to happen.
They got the something positive to happen last night, and
now I think have a pretty favorable matchup tonight.
Speaker 2: So let's go to Brian Leonard.
Speaker 1: I don't know if I agree with the price here,
but I definitely agree with Tokyo Brandon's assessment that like
that could be the thing that gets the Mets to
start pounding again.
Speaker 2: How do you see Brewers Mets.
Speaker 4: I am totally opposite, but we'll get to that in
a second. Two lefties go on Katana against Peterson. Peterson's
basically about a one fifty two three favorite total on
this is eight. Yes, miss Rowski pitched. You knew it
was going to happen. Obviously, when we've seen a rookies
go out there, he's he's been terrific so far. And
I talked about this yesterday. That says you're buying high
if you're playing Mizroskie. I didn't have anything on the game,
but he even come out and said he said, I
threw through the pitches where I wanted him to go.
He says they hit him. It happens, these got professionals.
I liked the way he came out and didn't blame
it on anybody. He just said, Hey, that's that's the
way I pitch, and that's that's going to happen. He
didn't have quite the controls he had in the past,
but there was one play at the umpire blew a
call and that may have cost him that beginning. Also,
that was that ground ball to second base, but they
couldn't just catch the ball and step on the base
and that would have made a difference. It was a
bad luck in that case for Milwaukee. In that game,
it was.
Speaker 3: The home runs when he give up. He doesn't give
up those two home runs they're right in that game.
Speaker 4: So obviously he did and they lost. But that's not
as he's not a killer for their season. I totally
disagree in that, and I actually like Milwaukee a little
bit in this game. When you're taking a look at
the stats for Jose Quintana, Uh, he's not going to
overpower anybody.
Speaker 3: He's got a three point three oh e RA one
point four to two whips.
Speaker 4: We's little highs and he's not even a very good
strikeout minch walk guy right now. But what he does
do is keep the opposition a little bit off balance.
And if you take a look at his splits so
far this season on the road, he is four and
oh one point three to one e RA one.
Speaker 3: Point two two whip.
Speaker 4: He's pitched much better on the road than he has
on his home mount a five point nine to six
e R. Yes, he's not a guy who's going to
get a lot of strikeouts.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 4: He does walk people. That is a concern. Uh, And
this Mets team will take pitches. Obviously, Soto's the king
of that. They're very good in that situation.
Speaker 3: But if you've.
Speaker 4: Followed, if you have followed the Mitch Mets pitcher as
of late David Peterson, he was great early on. He's
surprised a lot of people comes in with a three
point three ORA one point two to eight whip. But
you take a look at his game logs and the
last three times out he played Pittsburgh give up five
earned runs and four point two innings. He played Philadelphia
five earned runs and four innings. He played the Braves
three earned runs and seven innings. Before that, he had
a great game against the Nationals and he threw a
complete game shut up. Since then, he has not been
the same pitcher, and I don't trust him here. His
hard hit rates in the sixteenth percentile basketball velocity thirteenth
exit of Velossie the nineteenth. Is he better than the
starter for the Brewers? Quite possibly? But why are the
Mets the way they are playing? And I fell for
this the other day. I gave out the Mets in
a game and they weren't hitting. That's just just one
game yesterday. I'm not overly concerned with it. And if
you take a look at the bullpens here if I
could find my find that on here. The Milwaukee Brewers yesterday,
they didn't use McGill or your eBay. They're two best relievers.
They have not pitched in three days. They're totally fresh.
Take a look at what the Mets had to do yesterday.
The Mets had to use all but one reliever in
the doubleheader Yesterdayose Budou is the only one that did
not pitch. Their closer Dias threw twenty one pitches. Read
Garrett blue A save twenty one pitches, standing seventeen pitches.
I really like this Mets bullpen, but they all had
to be used yesterday. Now, granted they had the last
two days they didn't use them, so they're going to
be a little bit more fresher. But I think the
Milwaukee bullpen's fresher. I liked the price on Milwaukee today.
And as for the Mets being the better team, yeah,
if you look at the talent on the teams, possibly,
but talent does not win all these games. The Mets
are five sixty three on the season, the Brewers of
five point fifty eight.
Speaker 3: They're right there.
Speaker 4: Night next to each other, and you can make the
comment that the Central is the better better division. The Cubs,
the Brewers, Cardinals, Reds, and the Pirates against the Phillies, Mets, Braves, Marlins.
Speaker 3: In the Nationals.
Speaker 4: We expected the East to be great this year, the Phillies, Mets.
Speaker 3: And Braves. The Braves are done.
Speaker 4: If you're talking about team, it's done, it'll be the
Braves now. The Schwellenbach is out now for possibly the season,
say all the same thing. The Braves are in a
rebuilding situation right now. So I totally disagree with Tokyo
on this one. And that's a rarity because I don't
like to do it, but I prefer Milwaukee.
Speaker 3: In this game.
Speaker 5: So this is why a team like the Brewers never
even sniffs the World Series because they're stupid. They had
a chance yesterday to just pile drive this team and
just knock out their complete momentum. And what did they do.
They let Lindor hit a Grand Slam, They let Nimo or,
they let Lindor hit hit, they let Nemo hit. They
basically let a team that's two times more talented than
they are catch fire. And that's what exactly what you
didn't want to do. They should have won the second game.
They had the better pitching matchup. They blew it. They
didn't even show up to the game. They led a
team that was averaging two point three runs the whole week,
scored seven on them. And you know that those are
the kind of This is why you don't even sniff
the World Series is because you're a loser. And Milwaukee
Brewers are losers, and that's how they're going to be.
Speaker 4: They got a double header, they scored four and a
half runs. Yeah, they haven't turned it all around in
one game. I'm sorry, And you can't blame somebody is
a loser when you lose one baseball.
Speaker 2: Game, all right.
Speaker 1: I gotta be honest. I am so sick about talking
about this game. I really want to move on. So
here's a couple of things. One, I think the price
is insane. Would never pay a dollar fifty for the
Mets here, that's insane. Two agree with the thing. I
do think the Mets could get it going.
Speaker 2: Three.
Speaker 1: Final point that no one gives a shit about game
two of a doubleheader anymore. It's a it's part of
the problem.
Speaker 5: It's a season changer, it's a season changer.
Speaker 2: It's not trust me, trust me, it's this is.
Speaker 3: Going to change the division.
Speaker 1: Yeah, if it's a season the only the only season,
it couldn't the last time the.
Speaker 5: Brewers even sniffed the World Series.
Speaker 2: This is why, because the World Series.
Speaker 4: I believe Brewers won the World Series. When's last time
the Mets won?
Speaker 5: Robin?
Speaker 1: You Milwaukee not a market. Milwaukee's not a market that
should be winning World Series? Right, So, Jesse, I gotta
move this on. Wait, wait time you gotta move Hey,
we gotta move on, Jesse Schule.
Speaker 2: Thank you.
Speaker 1: I'm almost forty. I'm actually thirty nine. One more year
and i'll be forty. But thank you for for tuning in.
Thank you for the birthday wishes. Yeah, we got we
gotta get rolling. We got to get to a different game.
Uh no one even really had a pick in that game.
But I do like the banter. But to say it's
a season changer.
Speaker 5: It is?
Speaker 2: Sorry, all right, well it is. Well, let's see. To
be honest with you, I think there, I mean, I
think the Brewers are going to be what they are.
Speaker 1: I think they'll they'll hang around maybe when maybe get
in the wild cook they're done don't sleep on the
Mets though. The Mets are still a very good baseball team, uh, Brad, Brad.
Sometimes Astros to keep it going well, I mean, uh,
if they don't, it would, I guess, be considered a
bad loss. That being said, this this on being on
the side of two dollars it was on, was a
little bit surprising to me. Astros, of course win on Tuesday.
I got lucky with a ninth inning home run that
backdoor the plus one and a half to give me
a four percent winner on the Rockies. Yesterday, I went
to bed. I ended up not even watching the end
of that game yesterday? Did they did the Astros win
by more than a run? Yesterday? It was a five
to three, so five three yesterday. Neither game has really
been a blowout yet though, so maybe maybe this is
priced appropriately. Brian Leonard, I know you always kind of
looked for Rockies home spots, at least in years past.
This year's been a little bit different, though, But do
you have any desire to take a shot with Kyle
Freeland in the Rockies this afternoon?
Speaker 4: Yeah, Rockies scored a run in the ninth on a
solo homer.
Speaker 3: I believe in kind of to two.
Speaker 4: But Walter's going for Houston and Colorado's Freeland, both lefties.
You're looking at a total of about eleven and a
half eleven to the over Rocky or Houston's at basically
one eighty one eighty range. Walter has been terrific and
by the way, two lefties. We already know about Colorado
when when they play lefties on the season now two
and twenty three. Freeland, although he's pitched very well in Colorado,
he's he's probably the one guy. Marquez is also pitched
pretty well here over the years, but it's tough to
pitch in this ballpark. And that's the problem you're running
into here with Houston is you've got a pitcher in
BRANDW Walter that hasn't pitched here before. He's only got
fourteen major league starts in three years, but he's been
terrific this year. And as I've talked in the past,
I love playing lefties when the other teams don't know
anything about him. Comes into a three point three four ERA,
three point three five expected, one point oh far whip.
He's not a big fastball pitcher, fourteenth percentile velocity, but
if he can if he can pitch pretty well in
this ballpark, he'll have some success. But that said, if
you take a look at how Colorado has hit against
the lefties since the getting a June, they've got an
eighty seven w RC plus And now you may say, well,
that's not that great. Well, considering a team like the Mets,
who are facing a lefty today, by the way, are
sixty two, dead last in Major League Baseball. Another reason
to play Milwaukee. Sorry, sorry about that, Brandon, But Colorado
at the eighty seven that's eighteenth in baseball. So they're
hitting lefties a little bit better now. But I prefer
Houston side in this one a little bit. I think
the line is somewhat fair, but I am a little
bit worried about Walter without the great fastball, being able
to get what he normally gets out of those breaking pitches.
That is a concern, and that's probably why I won't
get involved in this game.
Speaker 5: So the Astros are better at everything than the Rockies.
But Rockies have a top five catcher man. That guy's
good what was the name? Goodman? Is good Man?
Speaker 2: Homer for me Tuesday.
Speaker 5: Hitting hitting two eighty with fifteen home runs or something. Hey,
almost any Major League Baseball team besides the Dodgers would
would start that guy at catcher pretty much. Dodgers have
have Smith, who's doing pretty good as well. So anyways,
or am I getting his name wrong? Who's the Dodgers
catcher Smith?
Speaker 3: Right?
Speaker 2: Well?
Speaker 3: Smith?
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, he's doing a little better. But oh and
don't forget rally for the Mariners. But man, this guy's good.
But besides him, they don't really have a lot going.
Freeland is their their their best pitcher. But that's kind
of like, you know, saying yeah, that's like saying this
is the prettiest piece of garbage in the garbage camp.
So uh, He's rank twenty four out of thirty according
to my rankings on a curve of thirty Walter sample
sized small, but he's ranked eight. He's looked really good.
He's striking out a lot, he's got good numbers. Sample
size is small, so you got to be a little careful.
But from what I've seen, it looks pretty good. Colorado's
bullpen stepping up. Both teams have a pretty good bullpen,
but the Astros are just a better put together team.
The thing is, these guys are human beings, and the
Astros have already wrapped up the series and they have
to travel this weekend to play the Dodgers. So are
there Are they really going to be into the game
or not? Is the question. So this is back to
the Milwaukee Brewers thing again. I'm not going to start
it up again. But these are the kind of games
you have to win. These are the kind of games
that show if you're a good team or if you're
the Brewers. So the Astros, I think, are a good
team though, and I think the Astros will probably take
care of business by one run, So I would not
better run line in this one. But they're better, They're
not the Brewers, so they're not going to just give
it away. I think, yeah, they'll probably win it in
a tight one here in my opinion.
Speaker 1: Great, great comments going on in the chat. David Edgingtin
says Paul Malader, robin me out four to three Cardinals
nineteen eighty two.
Speaker 5: Yeah, nineteen.
Speaker 2: Good job Brewers in the series.
Speaker 3: What about the Mets?
Speaker 1: What was the Mets? Like the Brewers lost that World Series?
The Mets were in a World series back in like
when I was in college. No, the Mets were, didn't
the Met or No, was that the NLCS. I'm not
going to get off topic here.
Speaker 2: I forget it all. It's all meshing together.
Speaker 1: Oh wait, we had a Subway series like two thousand
rights Yankees?
Speaker 2: All right?
Speaker 1: Anyway, this uh and then Colin Gregory pointed out the
same thing you pointed out. I think that's a really
good point that they're heading to LA tomorrow. This actually,
I disagree with the fact that this is a big
game for the Astros.
Speaker 2: They have a huge lead in the division. This feels like.
Speaker 1: Yankees Royals from a couple of weeks ago when the
Yankees were headed to Fenway and they rested a couple
of It was the last sort of leg of a
getaway day and they ended up winning the game one nothing.
It was the sort of the game before it started
there a little bit of a slump, but they played
it like, hey, we've got a big series coming up
over the weekend. It ended up being a Thursday night
game in Kansas City that they won one nothing before
they had to defend within. I could kind of see
something similar here. No, I'm not disagreeing with you, Tokyo.
Brandon Kyle Freeland is garbage. I mean, he's not I mean,
but he's a veteran. He will get some swing and miss.
He doesn't really walk.
Speaker 2: Guys.
Speaker 1: Now, if the Astros are feeling themselves today and they
and they show up focused, they absolutely could put a
crooked number on him, that's for sure. But if this
is just like you know, this is a day game, right,
like this is almost even more so like day game.
We're getting out of here after the game. If they're
just kind of going through the motions today and they
let Freeland settle in, he gets some swing and miss,
suddenly he gets through five six innings. I think you
actually have some nice value with Rockies plus one and
a half.
Speaker 2: Do I want to do it?
Speaker 1: No, I'm gonna have No. I don't think I'm gonna
have any action in this game. I already cashed with
the Rockies on on Tuesday. That's enough probably for the
next month for me when this Rockies team. Uh, but
it's an interesting conversation, and I think I would would
pause before I laid minus one ninety with the Astros today.
Speaker 2: Go ahead, Brian Lenney.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I just want to point out since they are
playing in Colorado and that's a really good Headers park. Uh,
those guys are not gonna They're not gonna leave without
getting As you pointed out, they were lower scoring games
in the first two. They're gonna get whatever they can
get out of this game. I believe there's their hitters
are before they leave, because, yeah, you go into Colorado,
you expect to score a good amount every game and
they have not done that. And uh, it wouldn't surprise
me if they hit well. But like I said, I'm
not involved.
Speaker 1: Well, one more comment from from Colin I think is
is you know, remember we had that conversation about Yankees Royals.
They ended up resting Judge. You could see al too.
They get a day off here and.
Speaker 2: Average player, yeah, I would say, yeah, I would agree
with that.
Speaker 1: But guys that that Astros lineup though, Man, there are
some names that I don't think even got people that
follow baseball would would get. It's I'll say one more
thing before we move on. I think the Astros right
now is a long term fade in terms of, like
in your betting the next couple of months. If you're
trying to fade the Astros, I think you're gonna make
money because you cannot convince me that that group of guys.
It's Al Tube and a bunch of guys that you
probably don't know their names are going to be profitable
against the betting number from this point to let's say September. First,
I think the Astros are a very very good fade
on a day to day basis.
Speaker 2: Like going forward. I had to get that out.
Speaker 1: There because that was really the basis at what led
me to bet the Rockies on Tuesday night and I
won in that game. All right, moving on, let's go
day game. Chad Pricard says he likes the spot for
the Twins today. Brian Leonard, I made a comment yesterday.
I said, well, you know, the Marlins when they're hot,
they're the type of team that I think you want
to ride. I actually said that about a week ago
before they won all their games. They finally snapped the
winning streak yesterday. My gut tells me that they could
go in the other direction, in direction a couple of
you know, I wouldn't be that surprised if they maybe
followed up the eight game winning streak by losing like
four or five or something like that. It's David Festa
Jerry Perez on the mound today. This is an afternoon game,
one of the only afternoon games. How are you seeing
Marlins twins?
Speaker 4: Well, if you remember, Minnesota has been very hot and
cold all season long and very streaky. Started the season terribly,
got on a really good winning streak, now they're fading again.
This is a team that has the talent, but they
just don't seem to put it together. I'm not a
big Baldlly fan. I never really cared for him as
a manager. But David Festus on them Ount today against
Eerie Perez, Minnesota is about a one month thirteen road
favorite here, totally about seven and a half to the over.
David Festa on the Mount for Minnesota, a guy who
we've all liked, but he's not done that well in
in the major leagues. He's got a five point four
oh e RA, a one point four to two whip
expected DRA four point seven to five. He's not been
able to last very long in these he rarely goes
six innings. He's had problems going long enough to get
the win. If you followed him, and I've said this before,
I play fantasy baseball. The David Festa problem is he
looks really good for three or four innings. Then once
he sees the batter scene for the second third time,
he struggles. And so he'll pitch great in the first
three innings, then all of a sudden, he gets hit
in the fourth and the fifth. That's always my concern there.
I do like this Miami offense. But they did lose yesterday,
But yeah, they could go on. It would not surprise
me if they go on a losing streak after that
win winning streak. But Uri Press is getting a little
bit better every time out six point one ninety or
a one point five to zero whip on the season.
His game logs his last two times out. He's only
pitched four times so far the season. He's yet to
go five innings. He's his walks are not real bad.
He's walked two or three in every game. That's the
last thing that comes back to you is your control.
His strikeouts. You want that game against Washington did not
strike out a single batter, and then he comes back
against the Brave strikes out six and struck out three
last time. So he's not where he will be. His
fastball velocity is accellent ninety fifth percentile, but he's not
where he needs to be.
Speaker 3: Later on. I think he's If you break down.
Speaker 4: His individual pitches, they're looking better than they were before,
but he's still giving up some runs. I can see
Minnesota winning this game, but it's the total right now
at seven and a half. And I said earlier, I
don't want to playing over with the team slump and
fester like Minnesota is.
Speaker 3: That would be the way I would look at this one.
Speaker 4: I don't trust either one of these pictures, but because
of Minnesota struggles off asually, I'll pass this game.
Speaker 5: It's Festivus for the rest of us. David Festa takes
the mound today. Look, Miami is better than Minnesota at
almost everything, and if they had a decent starting pitcher,
I would be all over Miami in this game. But
they don't. But I do agree with hey, Brian, we
agree on something today. Ary Perez is improving. His numbers
are terrible, but he's He's no Jr. Richard, but he
is improving a little bit slowly. I like him better
than Festa, actually, I mean that's hard to say. I
like him better, but I think he can hold it
down enough. His walks are a little alarming. That's the
one area where fest Is actually pretty good is his
walk to strikeout ratio.
Speaker 2: But.
Speaker 5: Bullpen and hitting. There's only one team worse than Minnesota
in current form, and that would be Cleveland. Minnesota's in
terrible current form right now and Miami's in great current form.
They're smashing it pretty good. Their bullpen is amazing right now.
The only X or the only negative dark cloud on
this is Zeri Perez. But like Brian said, he's improving,
so I think I could trust him here for plus money.
I think I think it would be a good play
to play, to play the Marlins today. I don't know
if I'm doing it. I haven't done it yet, But
what do you think, Adam?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't have a huge opinion on the side here,
but I really couldn't talk.
Speaker 2: You off of a plus one oh five with the
Marlins at home.
Speaker 1: Reason being, I think Perez has the upside because we know,
we know what Perez has the potential to be and
what he is when he's fully healthy. Now, you gotta
remember this was a very long layoff that he had.
He had you know, he was essentially coming back from
multiple in It's been almost a season long rehab. So
I don't know that we'll even see ury Perez be
be his full sort of like you know what he
could be at one hundred percent. I don't know that
we'll see that at any point this year, maybe after
the All Star break, but he's just not there yet.
He's still getting the feelback for his pitches. I talked
about this last time he pitched. I know internally they're
very happy with how his rehab has gone, but at
the big league level, he's he's still trying to find
the corners, get a feel for where the strike zone is,
and and you've kind of seen that in his results
where he'll pick up a couple of strikeouts, he'll walk
a couple of guys. I don't think that's gonna change today,
like from last start to this start. So my gut
tells me ury Perez could be pretty good. It's probably
four or five innings that he might give up a
runner two, but but he probably has the Marlins in
the game.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: Could David Festa get pummeled, Yeah, I could see that.
Like what Brian says is very accurate. He's a guy
that I've I've followed closely in the minors since he's
gotten to the big leagues.
Speaker 2: He when he's cruising along, he's fine.
Speaker 1: When he puts guys on base, he can't seem to
get around that that one batter where there's like first
and second no outs, or first and second one out,
and he throws one right down the the you know,
right just right down the gut, and and he's had
bad luck with that pitch that pitches has gone for
a double in the gap, it's gone for a three
run homer, and you know, and then the on the
flip side, Roco Baldelli has has started to anticipate this,
so you'll see them get him out in the fourth inning.
Like there will be times where David Festa goes up
nine down or like three three innings, one hit very
clean for the first three innings, and then Roco Baldelli
has to go get him in like the fifth because
he's in a bases loaded, one out situation, and he's like,
do I leave him in and and now I'm down
four nothing, because that's kind of what's happened to him
at times when he gets guys on base second time
through ther are basically exactly what Brian said. I think
Brian's gonna get his runs today. My gut tells me, Brian,
like the over yesterday, you know, teams didn't hit it
was right there kind of early on, and and the
offense never materialized.
Speaker 2: Is that really seven and a half. That's shocking.
Speaker 1: If that totals down to seven and a half, I
would have to play against that move to the under.
I think the Marlins bullpen can certainly be be hit
around at times. The Twins, their their bullpen strength is
the big guys, right the Griffin Jacks, Johann Duran. When
it's like a three to two type game. Bullpen depth
has never been the Twins game. And then and you've
got two starters, Baldelli will go get faster early. And
I just don't know that Uri Perez is pushed past
four or five innings unless he's absolutely lights out, at
which point you'd have to tip your cap because again,
you've you've watched this guy in a season long rehab.
So why would you just assume that today is the
day that he comes out and goes seven scoreless. I
don't think it's gonna happen. So I think I think
you're gonna have your runs here somehow. Someway, I'll call
it over eight, you know, and if that over eight
is plus money, that's worthwhile over seven and.
Speaker 2: A half is a good bet as well.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna hold off on making that a parlay bet
because we've got more games to talk about, but I
think that's a good over.
Speaker 2: Sorry, were you gonna add to in there?
Speaker 3: Brian?
Speaker 2: Go ahead?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I just want to say there's one eight out
there right now. You can get over eight at plus
one oh four.
Speaker 1: All right, let's move it along, o'doyle rules. Can we
talk Angels Braves? We absolutely can't. Someone in the chat
comments yesterday was sad we didn't talk about that game.
Can't get to them all when we're sort of going
deep like this. But we'll get to it today. Brian Leonard,
you said the Braves are cooked. I'm very much in agreement,
and I think it's kind of crazy that they're favored
the way that they're favored here.
Speaker 2: So, Angels Braves, how are you seeing? How are you
seeing this one?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 4: I'm in agreement with you. The Soriano against Elder. Elder
is about a one eight favorite total nine and a
half here. Soriano had been pitching great last time out.
He struggled comes in with a three point nine nine ara,
four point oh four expected one point four to seven whip,
which is the highest he's had in his career. A
great ground ball pitcher ninety nine percentile, and that may
come into account here because the ball does fly out
a little bit in Atlanta.
Speaker 3: I've been there.
Speaker 4: They do hit a lot of home runs the team
basically they're sort of like the Yankees, where most of
their scoring is from the home runs. But you take
a look at his game logs, he was terrific un
to the last time out, and he just got blown
out against the Nationals four innings, eight earned runs. Before that,
he'd given up one in runs zero one played the
Red Sox, they bombed them seven before that, zero three, three,
three is there all the way.
Speaker 3: For the last month.
Speaker 4: So he's a couple of times he's gotten hit hard,
but for the most part he's been a pretty good
pitcher and he've made money by backing him. He's five
and five on the season in his game, So the
Angels are usually an underdog, and that's why we've been
taking advantage of that.
Speaker 3: The Angels right now.
Speaker 4: I like the Angels hitters, not so enamored with Atlanta
right now, and Atlanta's got Elder on the mountain, and
anytime you can get a picture of Bryce Elder status
as a sizable favorite, I'm glucky to fade.
Speaker 3: It comes in.
Speaker 4: With a five point eight two ERA five point seven
zero expected one point four to seven whip in his
career four point five oh ERA one point three six whip.
His ground ball percentage is what keeps him in there.
He's in the eighty fourth percentile. It does not give
up a lot of home runs, but everything else is
in the blue, which is not good. Is expected batting average,
the second percentile, expected DRA, fifth percentile, fifth percentage, tenth percentile.
Speaker 3: He's a guy I look to fade.
Speaker 4: And as I mentioned earlier, with another injury to what
was then welling Back, the best pitcher they have on
this team, to go along with Sale, to go along
with the guys who are after the season after off
season surgery. This Atlanta team is killing for starting pitching.
They're going to have to keep Elder in there even
if he's not pitching well. That means that the Angels
could take advantage of that. I like the Angels here.
I may end up using this as my part of
the parlay, But I'm looking at them here. I just
think there's plenty of value here where the team is
playing with a lot more confidence than the than Atlanta is.
And if you're a player on this seam in Atlanta,
you expected to fight the Phillies and in the Mets
for the division title. You thought you were going to
get a nice bounce back. You've got your best player back.
He's starting in the All Star Game after only played
a few games. Cohen is back and you're so excited,
and then this happens. You got a lot of veterans
on this team. I would not surprise me if they
go on the tank right now.
Speaker 5: Quick promo, guys, I have a five percent play. I
think Adam does too. You can see our pages down
there at that little scroller down there. Wager Tuk has
a lot of promos for us, including a fourth of
July promo that you should check out as well. Go
to the replay of this and leave comments and like it.
It helps us a lot. As a matter of fact,
management has reached out to all three of us two
days in a row congratulating us on the great engagement
we're getting with the audience. And it's all because of you, guys,
So keep it coming please. We appreciate it and it's
helping us out in house as well. So regarding this game,
I have Bryce Elder ranked out of two hundred and
twenty starting pitchers. He is fourteenth from last. He's horrible.
He sandwiched between Chase Dolander and Kyle Hart. That's how
bad he is. So yeah, he's pretty bad. Bullpen wise,
the Braves bullpen is performing a little bit better than
the Angels, but the Angels offense is just smacking away.
Looking at this, I would think an Angels team total
or even Angels on the money line would be a
way to go. Soriano is one of those guys. I
think we talked about it in one of our earlier
shows in the season that we liked him, but he
kind of struggled coming out. I had high hopes for
him coming into the season, but he really stumbled at
the beginning of the season and I kind of lost
he lost his shine in my eyes. But he's he's
actually doing He's actually doing pretty good at the moment.
So I would say Angels or an Angels team total,
There's no way he could back the Braves here. The
Angels bullpen worries me a little bit, but uh, Soriano,
he might be able to go six or seven incs,
so the bullpen might not be a huge factor.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you're you're gonna get the first parlay League by
the end of this breakdown, because someone's gonna use the Angels.
If it's not Brian, it's gonna be me. Tokyo Brandon
likes the Angels. I'm in agreement. Bryce Elder's atrocious, absolutely
insane that he is is a favorite of this magnitude.
Speaker 2: You know, the Angels. I'm not really sold on the Angels.
Speaker 1: I don't think they're going to remain a five hundred
team for the rest of the year, but you know,
you put him in this spot, I think you know,
in the Parlay I almost may look to the plus
one and a half lay a little juice because you
get the road team with with the with the run cushion.
That's the thing with like these these teams, like the Angels,
I can see them losing some close games. But but
man like, well, however you slice it, there's absolutely value
on the Angels here.
Speaker 2: I couldn't agree more with Brian.
Speaker 1: It really feels like the Braves are the team that
let's see what is this July third, three weeks from now,
at the trade deadline, I think you see them selling
off pieces. I think I think the Braves are going
to be in a mode where they have to seriously
think about like retooling, rebuilding. Obviously you're building around a Kuna,
but for like future seasons, because this team just isn't
it in my opinion, and now they've got the injuries
to go with it. So yeah, I'm all about the
Angels here, Brian, Who's doing it?
Speaker 2: Me or you?
Speaker 3: I have a question for Tokyo.
Speaker 4: Where do you have the bullpen for the Braves rated?
Speaker 5: I have them rated sixteen.
Speaker 4: I don't think they're very good at this point. If
take a look at the bullpens.
Speaker 3: But this is interesting.
Speaker 4: You could play the Angels and get basically one thirty four,
or if you only wanted to play the first half,
you're only getting plus one oh five on the Angels.
Is there that big of a difference of thirty cents
on the bullpens here? I don't think there is.
Speaker 2: I got a point here? Can I chime in on
that topic?
Speaker 3: Yes?
Speaker 1: All right, So the Angels came into the season with
an atrocious bullpen, and something that they've done to their credit,
something they've done is kind of take these guys like
these these re debt mers and that there's a couple
of them down there that we're just like kind of
kind of fading away into the into the abyss in
their organization. Failed starters, they didn't really have a place.
They tried to do it with Ian Anderson. It didn't
work and they shipped him out, but they they figured out,
like you know, Debt Meer is this guy that he
really can't stay in the rotation. Sort of made them
into like long reliever type guys that have actually given
the bullpen some really good innings. And then the trade
from last year to bring Zephyr John over in that
Red Sox trade that he was one of the pieces
they got from the Red Sox. He's turned into a
really good reliever. So they actually have I would say
right now, like at present, their bullpen is better than
the Braves. The Braves are at a bottom ten bullpen
all year, can't figure out the closer situation, have some
injuries at worst, these are probably pretty even bullpen. So
I for a parlay, can I can I just do it.
Can I make Angels plus one and a half the
parlay lake? That's what I'm gonna use for the parlo.
It's minus one fifty five. But remember we're putting together
a three teamer. Why do I want the plus one
and a half. Well, again, it's a three team parlay,
so I don't mind the minus one fifty five. I'm
getting a run to work with with the road team,
so I know I'm getting an extra at that. I
don't trust the Angels to win like a ton of
close games. Again, I look at this team forty two
and forty three, say, okay, that's kind of crazy. I
don't think they're gonna be a I think they're probably
finished this year five to ten games under five hundred.
Speaker 2: But are they talented enough to hang around with the Braves?
Speaker 1: Absolutely so, in my opinion, it makes Angels plus one
and a half the ideal parlay leg. If the Braves
somehow steal this one, they probably do it by a
run and we're still we're still cashing anyway, So first
leg of our three team or today for me, is
going to be the Angels plus one and a half.
What am I looking at there? Brian like minus one
fifty five something like that.
Speaker 4: You see one fifty three basically is about in the middle.
Speaker 1: Well, all right, we'll call it minus one fifty five.
That's fine. I see that on a couple of sites. Yeah,
it's a I think it's a solid look, and we
all seem to agree on it. One more thing I
will point out, uh, before we go to the next game.
They put up a package for all three of us,
So it is next seven days. It's one price, you
get all three of our plays. I have a five
percenter tonight as well. I'm twenty two and seven on
my last twenty nine MLB plays, so it's it's rolling
right now. I like a game quite a bit tonight.
I've made it a five percenter and if you if
you do that, you get both of them. So that's
something to check out. It is I think going to
be up through the weekend. So give that a look.
I know that's something that they put up last night,
and it would.
Speaker 5: Your pages, Yeah, all of our pages as well.
Speaker 3: Seven days.
Speaker 4: For the for all three of us, and you get
it for one hundred and fifty eight dollars, which basically
is you buy two, get one free. That's that's the
deal for it. And there was a lot of people
that were calling in and we appreciate that, a lot
of people calling in trying to see if we could
get a deal for all three of us. And yes,
I did want to point that out.
Speaker 3: That was nice for them to do that for us.
Speaker 1: Yep, Russell Russell Deck must have jumped in late. He said,
can we talk to Mets Brewers. This is my chance
to remind you that the show is always live and
on demand, So head on over to YouTube, throw us
aik and subscribe right there, and you can watch us
the first fifteen minutes of the show about Mets Brewers
and then not give out a pick because that's how
we opened the show today. But it was at our
meeting and I do think there were some good points
in there. So if you want that Mets Brewers discussion
that is at the beginning of the show.
Speaker 2: We appreciate all the comments.
Speaker 1: We still have fifteen minutes of show left and we
still have two plays to lock in. Gee, Hurt, I
lost your original comment, but I'm gonna pull this one up.
He goes Chris Sale looking at homes around Metro Detroit.
Speaker 2: I love it.
Speaker 1: I love these Tigers fans. They were saying that about
Skeens last week. But listen, hey tell him to talk
to Johnny Detroit. He'll point out all the great things
about that area. Our offices, our wager Talk offices are
outside of the metro Detroit area, so we love Detroit,
not as much as our chat who seems to be
all Tigers fans. Sean must have had an engagement today,
he's not here. Shout out to Sean. Shout out to
me for being on the Tigers game one yesterday. That
was as easy of a winner as I've had all season.
Speaker 2: And shout out to our guy.
Speaker 1: Dietrich Enz, former LG twin who's now come back to
the States and having himself a really nice season.
Speaker 2: Has been great at Toledo.
Speaker 1: Was great in his first MLB game Brian Leonard since
I believe twenty twenty one or twenty twenty.
Speaker 2: Two last week.
Speaker 1: And he's got a nice matchup again against a team
that struggled against left tinged pitching.
Speaker 2: So let's go to Nats Tigers. How do you see
this one?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 4: I wanted to take my head off to the to
the Tigers fans too, because Papier Bayas is the starting
center fielder on the All Star team. How much money
would you have bet to get? What were the odds
on that coming into the season. If the Tigers can
get Javier Bias is an All Star start, those fans
stuff those ballot boxes. Good for you, yep, But that's
the only problem with the American League is now they've
got Hopyer Bias starting at center field. Yes, we're going
with Detroit today on the road Ends against Irvin Ends
as a lefty. Total LA is about one forty right now,
nine and a half to the under twenty.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Ends looked really good, as was pointed out before that
game he was started.
Speaker 3: You give us a little bit of the background.
Speaker 4: On him, his first start in Major League Baseball since
twenty twenty one, and he looked good. Comes in with
a perfect zero ERA zero point six to zero wipth.
Can't get much better than that. Five innings, struck out
four batters, one point sixty four expected ERA. Yeah, he
looked very good in that game, and I think he'll
have success here. This Detroit team is obviously a very
good team. They haven't played as well over the last
three or four weeks as they had earlier. But teams
run into win streaks losing streaks. It's just something that
they do and ends as a guy that I definitely
can take a look at. Here, let's take a look
at the the Detroit bullpen. Is we're looking at this
game the Tigers bullpen yesterday, they did have to use
a lot of their pitchers, but they had the last
two days off before that. Tommy Kainnely blew the save
in yesterday's game and or lost lost it. They had
a lot of bullpen guys yesterday. Obviously we talked about that,
going in thirty for oh and thirty pitches for almost,
fifty three for Herder, twenty two for the sixteen fan
I fy, twenty eight for Holten, and eighteen for Connie. Finally,
will Vest the closer is not pitched in three days.
None of those guys pitched the last two days, so
I think they're bullpen. Other than the guys who threw
thirty pitches or more will be available in this one. Here,
going the opposite direction and looking at the starter here,
Jay Gervin for Washington. Jake Irvin comes in four point
seven three ERA five point four one expected one point.
Speaker 3: Three l whip.
Speaker 4: His extension is actually ninety third percentile, is walk rates
is very good sixteenth percentile. Other than that, a lot
of blue on this card second percentile, barrel ray sixth percentile,
and with f rate seventh percentile and expected dra And
while Detroit earlier in the season had some weaknesses in
the lineup, now they're good from one through nine. I
really like the way this Detroit team is playing. Obviously,
the big power hitter in the middle, they just put
him on the il.
Speaker 3: He will not be there.
Speaker 4: But this Detroit team, I guess Washington, I think they'll
have a lot of success. I think this will be
a higher scoring game. And I kind of let you
try here.
Speaker 5: Well, I'm gonna pump the brakes a little bit on
Ends because he's pitched only five innings since twenty twenty one,
so I'm and I watched him in Japan, and I
didn't really like him in Japan, so I'm not saying
he's bad, but I'm saying I'm not sold on him
quite yet. So and I'm definitely not sold on Irvin either.
Washington's bullpen always bad. You can always rely on them
to blow games and horrible Detroit's bullpen's performing really well
and their hitting is performing really well. The thing is,
Washington's bats are pretty hot right now as well. We
got two really hot offenses, one bad bullpen, one picture
I'm not sold on, and one picture I know is bad.
So I think Detroit team total would be a good
way to go here. I haven't played it yet, but
if I were to, I would go that way rather
than a victory, because I just don't know if ends
is what he is. Romi ROMs you're writing, Judge, Judy,
Now that was like forty minutes ago. Go ahead on him.
Speaker 1: Life life altering moment for me just now mid show.
I just realized that you can star comments and it
will tag them into a separate list. It is July third,
we started we made the software change for Wager talk
shows like before the season. I cannot it took me
till July three to figure that out, hosting every single
day for five days a week.
Speaker 2: But life changing moment.
Speaker 1: That means I can when I see a comment, then
I don't have to go scroll back and not be
able to find it. I want to point out too,
that are really good. Jay Main says, ends to shove
again against I'm tired NAT bats. I would agree with
that doubleheader yesterday NAT sort of, that's no question about it.
The Nationals were more engaged in that second game after
getting blown out in the first one. I definitely think
you're gonna see more fatigue on the NAT side with
just with the willingness for the Tigers to shuffle their
lineup and stuff like that. The other thing is the
Nationals have really struggled against left handed pitching this year.
So while I'm with you TV like I don't know
that I'm ready to you know, tetrich Ens isn't winning a.
Speaker 2: Cy young or anything.
Speaker 1: It was one start, but I will point out he's
been very, very strong at Toledo and he is now
getting another dream matchup here against a team that doesn't
hit left handed pitching very well. Steve Duke might have
the best common of all. And then I'll go to
Brian Leonard. Tigers have regressed. They just somehow don't lose many.
I think that's a tremendous point. It's such a good point.
The Tigers have not played as good. Okay, they crushed yesterday,
but like they really haven't played as good as they've
played maybe the first two months, but this team just
finds a way to win games. Aj Hinch best manager
on the planet.
Speaker 2: He pushes all the right buttons he can.
Speaker 1: He can pivot in game yesterday, they get a huge
lead and he goes hole in and says, you know what,
let me just let me we're good seven nothing.
Speaker 2: My depth, bulpen arms can take care of this.
Speaker 1: He just I feel like he's just two, three, four
steps ahead of most of the other managers, and I
think that really gets discounted just how well run this
organization is. Right now, I love the Tigers again today.
I don't love the price kind of a little bit
steep for Dietrich Enz, but I.
Speaker 2: Kind of expect them to win today. Brian Leonard go ahead.
Speaker 3: Yeah, A couple of things.
Speaker 4: First off, Detroit's a better team now than they were
earlier in the season when they were winning a lot more.
And then we mentioned yesterday ols since coming back, other
than the the the injury to the UH, the OUTFITLD
or d H, they're they're loaded. Washington over the last
month has a w r C plus of one oh
three against lefties, so they picked it up in the
last month going against lefties. UH so I you know,
while I like, uh, I like to try in this game,
it would not surprise me if this game goes over.
Speaker 2: All. Right, let's uh.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I already commented on this, So yeah, I was
gonna say, my friend got a league out though, But
it's a game we've already covered, should we.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So let's let's go.
Speaker 1: No, let's let's go to your parlay league and then
we'll we'll we'll get Brian's and maybe get to one
more game.
Speaker 2: Who are you getting?
Speaker 5: I'm gonna I'm gonna take to Miami Marlins. Team total
over three and a half and it's minus one ten
on Pinnacle. I don't know what it is on American books.
Minus one ten on Pinnacle. That's unbelievable value. He's going
up against a shive and a horrible bullpen. So yeah,
three and a half, minus one twenty, minus one twenty,
so minus one fifteen. I guess we'll.
Speaker 1: Give you minus well, I we'll give you minus one fifteen. There,
I I juiced up mind a little bit, so I
think that's fair. That's going to be my leg Listen,
I don't know if David I would. I'm not going
to stand for that. Type of David festuslander. However, I
do think he is so prone to giving up that
like that three run home or something. If you're talking
about only needing three and a half to get over
that Marlins total, I rest assure he will be in
a situation where he's got a couple guys on and
he throws one right down the middle and there are
those Marlins hitters can absolutely do damage in that situation.
Speaker 2: So I'm with you very much.
Speaker 3: Project me.
Speaker 5: I project Festa to go only fourteen fourteen outs here too.
I don't expect him to finish, project him to not
finish five innings. He might finish five, but he's not wrong.
Speaker 1: You're not wrong about that either, because bal Delly doesn't
trust him second time through the order at this point.
So I think those are really two very good points,
and I'm very much in agreement with your leg Brian Leonard,
Do you know what you want to add to the
parlat or do you want to comment on that first?
Speaker 4: Well, I was just going to say if you if
you're playing live and he's pitching pretty well in the
first couple of innings, then you've got a better number
to play. The total in live I don't do they
do they play I live in Vegas.
Speaker 3: We don't get anything here. Do they let you play
team totals as the game goes on?
Speaker 1: Yes, most books do, I think I think some of
them do, at least I know the PPH is that
certain ones do. And I'm pretty sure you can play
team totals on like DraftKings FanDuel in game right TV.
Do you can you play in game team totals on
those books?
Speaker 5: I think we're spitting is illegal in Japan, so I
have to kind of circumvent and decent creative things, But
yes I can.
Speaker 4: Or spending is about to be illegal in the United
States too, if they passed that long.
Speaker 3: But we don't get it.
Speaker 5: You know, you live in the mecca of of of gambling,
and you guys are the most limited people on earth.
It's crazy.
Speaker 4: Yeah, if you haven't gotten into it, If you don't
know what I'm talking about, get on Twitter and read
uh some of the comments about this thing that's in
the Big Bill. Okay, there's two games. I was looking
at number one with the Angels, and since you already
took them plus one and a half, I will not
play that, but I will go back to the game
that I argued breheaded about earlier. I will take Milwaukee
full game plus.
Speaker 6: Oh my god, one seven plus was met on Milwaukee
plus one thirty seven full game the match.
Speaker 3: Do not hit lefties?
Speaker 4: There worst in Major League Baseball guest lefties over the
last month. Quaitana's been terrific all year on the road,
and Milwaukee's The season is not dead.
Speaker 1: You're trying to stick it to I can't from a
price standpoint, from just a sheer numbers price standpoint, I
can't argue with that at all.
Speaker 2: It is.
Speaker 5: They're gonna crush him.
Speaker 4: Why no, there you go.
Speaker 2: It is everything.
Speaker 5: Up.
Speaker 1: Let's get one more. The The chat is really firing
away on on. I'm just gonna grab a comment at random.
Mohammad says, Yankees put up nine runs. They want to
talk Yankees Blue Jays. I was wrong about Will Warren.
He got destroyed yesterday Tokyo. Brandon was was sort of
on that he was off, but I would I don't.
I'm not gonna write him off, but he he sort
of the guy that that showed up and got crushed
by the Dodgers, and then it has been pretty good
since that guy showed up yesterday. Blue Jays have been
some other kind of hot right now. But I don't
hate the spot for the Yankees. Brian Leonard, you have
any desire to go against this Blue Jays team At
the moment, I.
Speaker 3: Prefer Schmid in the game. Yeah.
Speaker 4: I kind of like the Yankees. Hey, I don't like
the price. You know, they're about a one twenty five favorite.
If it was a pick them, maybe on the Yankees here, Well,
we kind of talked about the Yankees pitcher yesterday how
he was so inconsistent, and you find that a lot
of out of the young players, and obviously the Brewers
rookie yesterday got got hit, but you're gonna find that
and a lot of the young players. He's looked good.
A lot of times. Things are going well, it's great,
but once some of these guys hit that hit, that
part of the game, and you talked about it with Festa,
they the young players are struggling with it. Where the
veterans have done it before they can get out of it.
A veteran like one Tona going for the Brewers today.
That was my last one?
Speaker 5: Are you done? Oh okay, I'm done. I'll go from there.
You know, everything points to the Yankees here. Uh, but
the batting, Uh, Toronto's bats are pretty hot right now.
I got Clark Schmidt rinked really high. But then I
looked at his splits on the road, and he's got
a five plus e RA on the road. If I'm
not mistaken, that kind of scares me. I oh no,
I'm sorry. He's got a three seventy RA on the
road in twenty six innings, small sample size, and I
don't know who his opponents were, so that kind of
makes a difference if it was Pittsburgh or if it
was you know, the Dodgers or whatever. But uh, that aside,
my numbers love Schmidt. Uh, Toronto's bullpen is not playing well,
and the Yankees bullpen's not playing well either. Right now,
I got Toronto ranked really high and hitting Yankees ranked
fairly little. But there are coming on as of late,
the Yankees are starting to heat up a little bit,
So I would think an over here would make a
lot of sense. I don't think Schmid's gonna be lockdown
Schmidt today. I think he's gonna give a few runs.
I would take either the Toronto team total over three
and a half or the game over is what I
would take.
Speaker 4: I just wanted to point out since you asked the
Clark Schmidt on the road, he faced Cleveland bad offense,
Seattle in Seattle a bad offense, Colorado and Colorado a
bad offense, the Angels probably the best of the group,
and the Kansas City Royals in Kansas City a bad offense.
Speaker 3: So yeah, even though it's era on the road, isn't bad.
He's played a lot of bad offenses on the road.
Speaker 5: YEP, I would expect some runs here. Toronto's bats are
hot right now. They're ranked nine according to my rankings
out of thirty. Yankees are ranked seventeen. But actually, if
you took the last you know, five days, Yankees are
hotter than seventeen. So I think an over here or
Toronto over.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm in agreement with the over. You've got some
tired bullpen arms for the J's. They've used a lot
of bullpen over the last five six days. Schmidt is
a guy that I think I've talked about on the
show a few times. You know, not so much the
second time through, but like third time through, fifth, sixth inning,
he'll start to give up some runs. He'll start to
get hit a little bit, so you got to I
don't know that he's gonna go super deep. And again,
I'm just the reason I have no interest in the
Yankees is because I have I just don't want to
step in front of the Blue Jays, who are playing
fantastic ball right now, knocking the cover off the ball.
Speaker 2: I think they'll probably get something off of Schmidt.
Speaker 1: I like, you know, the Yankees, like, you know, Bassett's
a guy that they've seen enough of over the years.
Speaker 2: He's been Most of those guys have been in the
league for a while.
Speaker 1: Bassett's been in the league forever, so I think they've
got a good enough sample size against him.
Speaker 2: But I do like the fact that the back end.
Speaker 1: Of this game for Toronto is going to have some
question marks, as you know, more so than some of
the games leading up to this point, because they have
used up some pen arms. And if this was a
scenario where you know you're getting an eight and a half,
let's say it is a four to three game. Late like,
I could kind of see both teams getting a four run.
So I'll say over eight and a half is pretty
a pretty decent look in this one.
Speaker 2: Okay, we have reached the finish line.
Speaker 1: It is ten am and Brian Leonard juiced up our
parlay with that Brewers leg So one more time I
will point out great special to site put up right now.
It's all three of us, seven days, one price. You
get all plays for all three. It's on all of
our pages. Can't miss it, so go check that out.
I've got a five percent.
Speaker 5: Yeah you have, I have a five percent. Normal price
would be seventy dollars just for that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean that. Yeah, it's a it's definitely
good value.
Speaker 5: If you're Brian might have a five we don't know yet.
Speaker 1: Multiple gappers, so yeah, check that out. Also give us
those likes and subscribe. We very much appreciate it. It
helps the show grow, and it's helped the show grow considerably.
So appreciate everyone that's tuning in on a daily basis commenting.
It means a lot, and it gets us charged up
to come up and do this show five days a week.
Speaker 2: And we will.
Speaker 1: Oh that's the last thing I wanted to say. We
will be here tomorrow. It's a holiday, but not for us.
It's just another day where we're talking about baseball. We
will be here nine am Eastern tomorrow to break down
the fourth of July slate without further ado. The parlay
is plus six twenty nine. We're not messing around today,
Ryan Len, like, we're not messing around today. Brewer's money
line plus thirty seven plus one thirty seven is what
I've got in there. I'm gonna go a little bit
more conservative with Angels plus one and a half. That's
full game, And if Tokyo Brandon's leg doesn't hit, then
it won't even matter because early we need to get
through that first leg. Early, Marlin's team total over three
and a half. So the plan for today very simple.
Tokyo Brandon is gonna get us those Marlins runs right
around noon eastern. He's got Marlin's team total over three
and a half. Then we've got Angels plus one and
a half. Brewers money line. That parlay plays pace plus
six twenty nine. If you've been playing a long all
season for every if you've played them equally all year,
one dollar has returned twelve ninety on these parlays. Not that,
but we really want to get to that twenty unit mark.
I think I think we were a shade under twenty
units and that's the highest we've been all year. This
would would put us right back in striking distance to
get to that mark. So one more time. Three team
are Marlin's team total over three and a half. We've
got the Angels plus one and a half Brewer's money line.
That's your parlay for today. Five percentergs for me and
Tokyo Brandon. Great special up on the wager Talk page
for the three of us, Happy birth in July.
Speaker 2: Will see you guys back here nine a m. Tomorrow