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Speaker 1: Ila, Army Navy, the first five bowl games, and college

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football playoff thoughts. Initial college Football playoff thoughts. I know

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it's still early, guys. That's what we've got on tap

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here this week on the Blitz. Joining me as always

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my good friend ed yours Ralph Michaels. Steve Merrill will

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be joining us momentarily sitting in for Ross Benjamin this

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week three and all last week with best bets Ralph,

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second time in the last three weeks on the show.

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But hey, no time to talk about the past. Let's

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talk about the future. That's what we're here for, giving

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you guys some actionable info, not just for the games

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on Saturday, but like I said, the early bowls early

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next week as well, Army Navy, Ralph a storied history obviously,

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no not. I am sure that you have a lot

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of systems and trends you can share on this game

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and your best bet for the shows on this game

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as well. So why don't you break it down for

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the people?

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Speaker 2: Well, you know it's no secret, Brian that this is

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now two and seventeen over under the last nineteen years

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since two thousand and six. Why it makes total sense

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they run the option slower paced. They practice against this

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offense every day. Statistically, Navy is more impressive for me.

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My power ratings actually lean Navy. But this is a

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game where, much like the final week of the college

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football regular season, in state rivals or you're playing your

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main rival, you really throw your power ratings out the window.

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But I am impressed with Navy. You look at what

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they've done. They finished this season winning back to back

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games as a dog, knocking off USF and Memphis. They

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were minus twenty yards per game and at last two,

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but they got the job done. And then you look

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at their two losses at North Texas and at Notre Dame.

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I actually think Navy should be about an eight and

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a half point favorite in this game, but I can't

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quite get there. Why Their rush defense has allowed two

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hundred and forty nine hundred yards two of the last

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three games, they allowed five point six and six point

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six yards per carry. Now, North Texas and Notre Dames

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rush attacks are far different than Army because of the

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O lines and the size of the O lines and

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the size of the wide receivers and tight ends that

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can block. You look at Army and you say, well,

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they lost at home against Tulsa bad loss, a loss

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of Tulane, A good loss at East Carona not a

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good loss. They got out gained by two by one

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hundred and eighty yards. They lost by North Texas by seven,

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actually seven points better than Navy did, and they lost

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to Tarlington State, which had the season start in an uproar.

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Both of their bowl bids are already attached now. While

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the over under is two and seventeen the last nineteen years,

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the over is actually two and one the last three years,

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so two of the last three have gone over the total.

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That doesn't concern me because I have very good reasons

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why both of those games went over the total. Last

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year when Navy won and went over the total, remember,

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Army was playing tu Lane the week before in the

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AEC Championships, so they didn't have their traditional two week rest.

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That's a big difference. While Navy had two weeks to

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prep for Army, Army was prepping for the best team

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in the American Conference, had to then take on tu Lane,

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had another physical week and then to prep for Navy.

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So that situation clearly screamed Navy last year and three

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years ago when the game went under that was in

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double overtime. The final was actually ten to ten after regulation.

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With that said, the total thirty eight or thirty nine

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and a half. This total was falling so far when

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we had fifteen straight unders. But now that the last

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three years two and one to the over, Joe public

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is not grabbing those unders like they used to. I

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really find value in the first half under Brian. First

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half under is nineteen and a half, full game is

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thirty eight. You don't find many college football games with

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the first half total more than fifty percent of the

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full game. That is giving us true value with the under.

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Best bet for the show first half under nineteen and

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a half Army Navy.

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Speaker 1: All right, there you have it. We've were just a

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few minutes into the show. We've already got one leg

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of our three leg parlay in Ralph going with the

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first half under like a Ralph's been tremendous with his

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first half totals here on the show. Steve Merrill, I'll

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tell you what, it doesn't matter if it's the Army

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or the Navy. They can't tell this time. I got

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so choked up the season.

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Speaker 3: I love it. I tried to come light so you

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don't get as choked up and you still can you

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only imagine if it had been three minutes earlier. Ralph,

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I know right now, Oh my, I.

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Speaker 1: Just wonderful to see you, Steve. And look, I'm gonna

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make the short and sweet my andicap of this game

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is very simple, almost rudimentary. Dare I use that term.

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You look at a game with this low of a

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total and one of the teams is getting say six

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and a half points, it's dogger passed for me. I see,

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I see a couple of people in the chat. I

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see David in the chat. I see CT in the chat.

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Titan CT people say, hey, if this gets to seven,

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I'm on Army. I would concur with that assessment. I

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would I could only lean to the underdog as far

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as the side goes. Steve, let me bring you in

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our commanding officer, if you will. How do you like

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Army and Navy?

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Speaker 3: Well, first of all, great to see both of you,

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and I want to thank Ralph because he gave me

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some great data for the video that I did on

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this game earlier in the week. You know, the first

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thing you always think of is the under trend, and

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Ralph's numbers show that you know, Service Academy games stay under.

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But when you look at Army Navy, only seventeen and

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two to the under, and one of those overs was

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a double overtime game three years ago. Last year's game

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did go over. And obviously the totals are a lot

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lower than they were a couple of decades ago. When

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that trend began, we were getting forties, even some fifties,

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low fifties for the over unders. Now we're in the

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mid high thirty range. It's still under a pass for me.

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But the little wrinkle of this game is what you mentioned, Brian,

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is that we do have Navy as almost a touchdown favorite.

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And that did catch my eye when I was doing

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the video a couple days ago. But the more I

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dug into it, I get it. And by the way,

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that's a sharp money move on Navy. The money quickly

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on Monday came in on Navy crossed over that key

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number six six and a half, and as you mentioned,

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we might be seeing some sevens by kickoff on Saturday afternoon.

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I'm not interested in laying seven, but it's six six

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and a half. I would still lean towards Navy, and

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I get what you're saying, you know, Army underdog run

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the ball. Both teams know how to defend the option,

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and that's why the Unders a little tricky in this

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game as well, because if you think a favor can

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win by more than a touchdown, then all of a sudden,

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maybe some more points are scored. I still think this

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game can stay under. Maybe an Army team total under

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is another way to hedge it. But both teams are

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going to run the ball basically every play. I think

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Navy has the better run dye and even when the

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passing is needed, I think Navy throws the ball better

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as well. They are the better team this and while

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Army has gotten them in recent years, I think it's

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a chance for Navy once again to start that dominance

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that they had for decades. If you're gonna play, and

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I would actually lay it with the midshipman would have

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definitely liked it more a minus six or less. It

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is getting a bit pricey now.

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Speaker 1: Though, Yeah Dan here, pardon me, pardon my finger, I'm

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going to throw this comment up on the screen.

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Speaker 2: RJ.

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Speaker 1: He says, I will be looking to bet both of

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these teams in their bowl games. Absolutely one percent agree

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with that assessment, I will just point out one more

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trend and then I'll throw it back to Ralph. You know,

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one of the things with Navy, and I'm a tip

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of the captain Navy, I did not think they were

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gonna be able to match their record from last year

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one win in. If they win either here or their

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bowl game, they will match the last year's win total

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of ten. They are. And here's I guess, Steve, another

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reason I was looking at the Army side, and then naturally,

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I'm just a guy who looks to take the points

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everywhere I think Anyway, I think a lot of people

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watch and know that Navy two and six against the

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spread their last eight games, both covers were in the

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underdog role. I had them of those games because USF

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a game that cost USF a spot in the College

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Football Playoff. They won that game outright, of course. So

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that's just kind of how I was handicapping at Ralphi.

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I think you wanted to follow up I did.

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Speaker 2: I was just going to bring up this game, first

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time in Baltimore in over a decade, temperature in the

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mid forties, no win to speak of, so nice weather

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for it, you know, Brian, I did a tna A

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trends and angle Bowl video which we'll get posted tonight

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on wager Talk's YouTube jump. But since we talked to

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Army Navy and someone had said they wanted to back

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them in the Bowl, this is one of those situations

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I talked about on that. We'll bring it up again

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when Army and Navy are playing in their balls. But

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just to give you guys from some foresight, in service

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academy in bowl games, you have to remember this. You

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don't have opt outs, you have very few transfers, you

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are conditioned, you don't get distrapted. Since two thousand and six, Army, Navy,

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and Air Force and bowl games twenty four and nine,

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seventy three percent against the spread. Since twenty seventeen, Service

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academies in bowl games eleven and one straight up, eleven

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and one against the spread, that is ninety two percent.

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And since two thousand and nine, Service academies in bowl

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games with the line between the sevens and a total

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under fifty nine, so they're not playing a high flying

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offense thirteen to oh straight up thirteen and oh against

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the spread.

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Speaker 1: Wow, that's an awesome trends right there.

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Speaker 3: Well, hey, Brian, real quick, I'm looking at the Odds

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logic screen. We see that Army open two and a

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half against Connecticut. It's now five and a half even

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six at one of these sharp Global books. So you know, Ralph,

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at what point you know, obviously they haven't caught on

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to it yet, right.

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Speaker 1: He keeps working the year after year.

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Speaker 3: You just wonder is that going to be priced in

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this year or not?

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Speaker 2: And you know, again it depends on what your power

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ratings say, but you know it's there's a lot to

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be said, and it makes complete sense. You know, we'll

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see some of these teams that have ten or twelve

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players opt out. That could be you know, your entire

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starting offense or your entire starting defense. So to have

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your team play with continuity, with everyone that's healthy getting

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ready to play is a big boost for the Service Academy.

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Speaker 3: And Brian, the other game is Navy against Cincinnati. Cincinnati

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opened as a one point favorite. Navy is now a

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four to four and a half point favorite. So yeah,

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that's four point moves in both of those games already

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towards the Service Academies.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I was gonna bring that Navy Cincinnati game up

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if you didn't sores be not gonna play for Cincinnati,

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it looks like so that's opt out related again, Ralph

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brought it up. Army and Navy they're not doing it.

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They're the two teams you can count on not having

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opt out. So, yeah, money's moving. I know we're getting

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a little bit ahead of ourselves. It's a long Bowl season,

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a lot and change between. I mean, Navy's not playing

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their multil January second, only December eleventh right now, so

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we'll of course have more analysis on that game coming

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up on the Blitz in coming weeks.

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Speaker 2: You know what, though, guys, if you are going to

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play Armory Navy, play them now because it can It's

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only gonna get worse. Other guys might opt out. And

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remember what happens is the Bowls always have to start

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after the championships, obviously because the semesters, and then they

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start getting grades players that play January first or that

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last week in December. The greats come in and we

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see a lot of those teams lose their players because

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they're ineligible because they their grades, because they were seniors.

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They really didn't care. They thought they would have a

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shot to play further. So again, if you want to

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play the Service academy. I would play the opener every season.

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Just jot that down.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so they're taking money, Navy's taking money for Saturday.

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The story is Ralph gave you the best bet there

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on the first half under. Certainly, history, even though two

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of the last three years has gone the other way,

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history does favor the under in this rivalry. And we

245
00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:45,879
got a little back and forth here as far as

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the spread money coming in on Navy though. So okay,

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we're going to cover the first five bowl games today

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on the Blitz, one of which is Saturday, the l

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A Bowl between Boise State and Washington. But before we

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start diving into these first Bowl games, Ralph, you mentioned

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the video you're doing. You're talking a little TNA. It's

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upcoming here on the way you talk to YouTube page.

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This good time, guys, for me to remind you, don't

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00:12:10,559 --> 00:12:13,120
only just smash that like button for this show, click

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00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:16,039
subscribe down below me. That way you'll be instantly notified

256
00:12:16,039 --> 00:12:18,279
when great videos like the one Ralph is going to

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00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:21,559
drop goes up on the page. And Ralph, you wanted

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to dig into to start us off here today or

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00:12:23,919 --> 00:12:26,840
to start off our Bowl portion of the program, some

260
00:12:27,039 --> 00:12:30,840
general handicapping trends for the Bulls. Obviously betting the Bulls

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00:12:31,080 --> 00:12:33,399
in the year twenty twenty five, it's not what it

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used to be, uh ten or even five years ago.

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Speaker 2: I'll tell you what, I've had a great Bowl record

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twenty fourteen. I didn't make adjustments quick enough to be

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00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:45,720
honest with you this past season. Excuse me, the twenty

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twenty three Bowls. Last year in the Bulls, I was

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00:12:48,799 --> 00:12:51,639
number one at wageer Talk, going twelve and three eighty

268
00:12:51,679 --> 00:12:54,919
percent on my fifteen Bowl releases. So I just want

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to talk about some generals, the trends and angles. And

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I said this on my video. The trends and angles

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00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:05,279
are not as strong as they used to be. Used

272
00:13:05,279 --> 00:13:08,360
to have great situations because everybody was playing and there

273
00:13:08,360 --> 00:13:11,360
weren't opt outs, and teams that had six wins that

274
00:13:11,399 --> 00:13:14,000
got to that win were a positive to finish the

275
00:13:14,039 --> 00:13:17,039
season with a winning record. Teams that had a lot

276
00:13:17,039 --> 00:13:19,600
of wins and our dog have been a positive place.

277
00:13:19,679 --> 00:13:23,360
So it's something I look at and do not make

278
00:13:23,399 --> 00:13:27,919
a Bowl play without looking at injuries, at opt outs,

279
00:13:28,320 --> 00:13:31,919
at coaching changes. Because even now you know now with

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00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:36,039
the Michigan situation, we're going to have another slew of

281
00:13:36,080 --> 00:13:39,120
coaching changes. So when you think you study the game,

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this may change and all of a sudden, the other

283
00:13:42,279 --> 00:13:44,960
coach may now play, and now you may start losing

284
00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:47,720
some other starters on other teams. So it is a

285
00:13:47,759 --> 00:13:51,039
trickle down effect. It's actually more like a domino effect.

286
00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:53,159
It's much more than a trickle. Now we'll see what

287
00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:56,759
happens with the Michigan with the Michigan side, But to me,

288
00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:02,000
I do like taking team that are at six and

289
00:14:02,080 --> 00:14:07,320
six and our dog. It's been a positive situation. I

290
00:14:07,399 --> 00:14:11,480
don't put too much stock in losing a head coach.

291
00:14:12,159 --> 00:14:14,399
I do put a lot of stock in if you

292
00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:16,759
lose your head coach and one or two of your

293
00:14:16,759 --> 00:14:20,759
coordinators as well, that's gonna leave you high and dry.

294
00:14:20,919 --> 00:14:23,399
On the top end. A couple things, I just want

295
00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:27,559
to mention who covers more both favorites your bulldogs the

296
00:14:27,639 --> 00:14:30,440
last two years. Something that simple. At least know the

297
00:14:30,480 --> 00:14:33,559
information and that's what we're sharing with you. Since twenty

298
00:14:33,639 --> 00:14:39,240
twenty three, both favorites are thirty three and forty one

299
00:14:39,639 --> 00:14:43,120
forty four point six percent, so bull dogs are fifty

300
00:14:43,159 --> 00:14:47,279
five percent. Both favorites of nine or more are actually

301
00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:51,919
fifty nine percent, so basically single digit favorites and bowls

302
00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:54,559
from minus one to minus eight and a half twenty

303
00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:58,039
three and thirty four forty point four percent against the spread.

304
00:14:58,679 --> 00:15:01,919
That does not include play off games, the expanded playoffs,

305
00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:06,799
or the four prior playoff games. Guys, favorites in playoff

306
00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:11,039
games since twenty twenty one fifteen and five seventy five

307
00:15:11,080 --> 00:15:15,440
percent against the spread favorites with a high total of

308
00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:18,639
fifty six or more just two and three. When you

309
00:15:18,679 --> 00:15:23,320
have a playoff favorite with a total under fifty six,

310
00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:25,759
they have gone thirteen and two against the spread.

311
00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:31,399
Speaker 1: No, our little teas for what Ralph will be dropping again, guys,

312
00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:34,159
if you want more of that, to check out Ralph's video.

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Ed know the reminder. I'll smash that like button if

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00:15:36,879 --> 00:15:40,679
you've been enjoying it. So, without further ado, let's get

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00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:43,840
into the bowl. The LA Bowl or this is a rare.

316
00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:47,559
Usually Army and Navy has the Saturday to itself, but

317
00:15:47,679 --> 00:15:51,039
not this year because the LA Bowl has intruded upon

318
00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:53,240
the Army Navy game. I guess, for lack of a

319
00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:55,679
better ternam, it's boy, it's good game. Boise State and

320
00:15:55,799 --> 00:15:58,919
Washington good matchup Washington. Looking at the odd screen they've

321
00:15:58,919 --> 00:16:01,919
taken money, I thought that the number did open a

322
00:16:01,919 --> 00:16:06,000
little bit low, at least per my power rating. Course,

323
00:16:06,759 --> 00:16:08,440
I think we're gonna mention this a million times over

324
00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:10,960
the next couple weeks. Guys, power rings. You sometimes have

325
00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:12,799
to throw them out. You have to be cognizant of

326
00:16:12,799 --> 00:16:16,120
the personnel who's opting out. Like Rob said, our coach,

327
00:16:16,600 --> 00:16:19,679
our team's going through transition with coaches where we talked

328
00:16:19,679 --> 00:16:21,960
about one of those teams a little bit later. These

329
00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:24,960
for my best bet. But here it doesn't seem like

330
00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:26,759
there's gonna be a lot of opt outs, guys, so

331
00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:30,639
which makes the matchup even more attractive. Maddox Madson I

332
00:16:30,679 --> 00:16:33,039
think is gonna play for Boise State. He returned in

333
00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:37,000
the Mountain West Conference championship game caught the show last week.

334
00:16:37,039 --> 00:16:38,840
Boise State was my best bet on the show. They

335
00:16:39,039 --> 00:16:42,039
wiped the floor with LV for a second time this year.

336
00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:44,919
And Washington it seems like all their stars are gonna

337
00:16:44,919 --> 00:16:49,759
play as well. No coaching vacancy, no coaching changes here

338
00:16:49,759 --> 00:16:51,600
to talk about, So Steve, I'll throw it to you

339
00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:55,720
thoughts on Boise State Washington kind of I guess the

340
00:16:55,879 --> 00:16:58,600
rare matchup in this era of bowl games where we

341
00:16:58,639 --> 00:17:00,360
don't have a lot of opt outs and we're we

342
00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:03,279
can't actually look at the regular season and you know,

343
00:17:03,519 --> 00:17:04,440
pull some things from it.

344
00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:06,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the key brond is make them play

345
00:17:07,079 --> 00:17:09,400
like one week after they just played, right, I think

346
00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:11,799
you're a little less likely to opt out. The whole

347
00:17:11,799 --> 00:17:13,599
opt out thing is always strange to me, right when

348
00:17:13,599 --> 00:17:16,720
a team is out of the running, and Washington's been

349
00:17:16,759 --> 00:17:18,319
out of the running, right, they weren't in the playoff

350
00:17:18,319 --> 00:17:20,319
picture for the last month or so. They have four

351
00:17:20,359 --> 00:17:23,640
losses on the season. So does Boise State, Like, why

352
00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:25,599
do you all of a sudden play those last three

353
00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:27,960
or four games in November? You know they don't matter,

354
00:17:28,240 --> 00:17:30,079
like you're not going to the Big Ten title game.

355
00:17:30,559 --> 00:17:32,599
So the whole opt out thing seems strange. I think

356
00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:34,599
part of it is because you sit for three weeks

357
00:17:34,640 --> 00:17:36,960
in practice, and that makes sense to me. So it's

358
00:17:37,000 --> 00:17:40,480
not a surprise maybe in hindsight, that the guys aren't

359
00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:42,240
opted out in this game, because it's just one week

360
00:17:42,319 --> 00:17:44,160
later for Boise State and it was just basically a

361
00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:46,599
bye week for Washington. So I do think that's part

362
00:17:46,599 --> 00:17:47,920
of the reason we get a good match up here,

363
00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:50,640
and it's maybe something the Bulls should start playing more

364
00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:52,920
games on this Army Navy Saturday, like you said, instead

365
00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:56,039
of waiting until next Saturday. It is a clean handicap.

366
00:17:56,079 --> 00:17:58,400
You're exactly right about power ratings. But since both teams

367
00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:00,920
look like they have everybody their coaches still there, I

368
00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:02,839
do think you can rely on your normal numbers, which

369
00:18:02,839 --> 00:18:05,319
I love because I'm a numbers guy. My ten thousand

370
00:18:05,319 --> 00:18:09,200
game simulation has Washington winning by nine points on average.

371
00:18:09,519 --> 00:18:12,640
I also rate them as the stronger offensive and defensive team.

372
00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:14,799
I also have them with the stronger strength to schedule,

373
00:18:15,559 --> 00:18:18,119
so the line is fair better team on both sides

374
00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:20,160
of the ball. I did a standalone video for this

375
00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:22,039
earlier in the week. It's posted right here on wager

376
00:18:22,079 --> 00:18:24,440
Talk TV. By the way, you mentioned, click subscribe and

377
00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:26,400
click that bell for instance alerts. I will be doing

378
00:18:26,519 --> 00:18:30,440
every single bowl game this season except the Celebration Bowl

379
00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:33,160
on Saturday. We're not doing South Carolina State, Prayer, View A,

380
00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:35,039
and M, but I am doing every Big Boy Bowl

381
00:18:35,079 --> 00:18:38,319
game all the way through January. Started off with this one.

382
00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:40,880
I do lean Washington. I also leaned under fifty one

383
00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:43,119
and a half in the video, it's now fifty two

384
00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:45,519
and a half. Even fifty three, the line was eight

385
00:18:45,519 --> 00:18:46,759
and a half. It's now nine and a half. I

386
00:18:46,799 --> 00:18:49,319
still like Washington, still like the under that would normally

387
00:18:49,319 --> 00:18:51,880
get me looking Boise State team total under. The problem

388
00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:53,720
is most spots have twenty and a half. There are

389
00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:56,240
a few twenty one and a half's out there. Yes,

390
00:18:56,279 --> 00:18:58,039
at twenty one and a half, I do start leaning

391
00:18:58,079 --> 00:19:01,000
Boise State team total under as well. I like washing

392
00:19:01,039 --> 00:19:03,119
it in the under for the game. I just think

393
00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:04,599
the Huskis are the better team on both sides of

394
00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:06,319
the ball, and I think they'll be focused here. And

395
00:19:07,079 --> 00:19:09,839
you mentioned Boise States big win against UNLV last week.

396
00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:12,079
Can make an argument maybe this is not the greatest

397
00:19:12,079 --> 00:19:14,119
spot for Boise after a big home win winning their

398
00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:16,559
conference championship game, this might be a little bit of

399
00:19:16,559 --> 00:19:19,079
a letdown spot here. Maybe they'll spend more time in

400
00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:21,480
Hollywood than they will prep in for this game. I

401
00:19:21,559 --> 00:19:24,079
love L A L A Bowl eight o'clock Eastern Staday

402
00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:25,319
night favorite and under.

403
00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:27,839
Speaker 2: Is he still alive?

404
00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:29,119
Speaker 3: By the way, I mentioned him in the video the

405
00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:30,880
other day. I said he might sing halftime and I

406
00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:33,200
was like, he might not even be alive anymore. Didn't

407
00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:34,480
get around on googling.

408
00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:36,319
Speaker 1: That, Dan, Please, can you google that real quick?

409
00:19:36,359 --> 00:19:38,160
Speaker 3: So Dan lives in l A. He has to know

410
00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:40,400
this for city they didn't allow.

411
00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:48,000
Speaker 1: Andy Newman is alive and well, gentlemen, continues, He continues

412
00:19:48,039 --> 00:19:48,720
to make music.

413
00:19:48,839 --> 00:19:49,839
Speaker 3: Yes, that is awesome.

414
00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:51,720
Speaker 1: He's watching. I understand too.

415
00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:53,799
Speaker 4: He is actually one of the uh you know of

416
00:19:53,839 --> 00:19:57,599
the program. Yes, what do you think of instantly? What

417
00:19:57,839 --> 00:20:00,880
sports sports ish movie do you you think of instantly

418
00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:04,440
when you hear that song I love l a baseball

419
00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:06,720
the Naked Gun?

420
00:20:06,799 --> 00:20:08,799
Speaker 3: Come on, now, you guys, you.

421
00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:12,000
Speaker 1: Put me on the spot. I apologize already.

422
00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:17,720
Speaker 2: Yes, whenever I just think, have you got a friend?

423
00:20:18,759 --> 00:20:19,599
That's all I think?

424
00:20:21,079 --> 00:20:23,720
Speaker 3: The naked gun baseball scene with Reggie Jackson trying to

425
00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:28,000
assassinate the queen. That's right, yeah, go with that, Brian,

426
00:20:28,039 --> 00:20:30,200
come on, all right, right, okay?

427
00:20:30,839 --> 00:20:38,119
Speaker 1: From Reggie Jackson assassinating the queen, queen, God, I'll tell

428
00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:39,759
you what we can talk about, the sex pistols, God

429
00:20:39,799 --> 00:20:41,799
save the Queen. I could have a nice conversation about that.

430
00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:45,960
But Ralph, from that to the fact that Washington does

431
00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:49,119
have a rest edge, there's no easy transition there. Steve

432
00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:51,720
brought up a great point Poise they played last week.

433
00:20:51,759 --> 00:20:53,319
It was a big game for them, the Mountain West

434
00:20:53,319 --> 00:20:56,400
Conference championship. How much does that factor your handicap? I

435
00:20:56,400 --> 00:21:00,079
think it does matter here. Uh you know for me,

436
00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:02,440
I think it's another reason why we're seeing money come

437
00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:04,599
in on the favorite. And I will point out too,

438
00:21:05,079 --> 00:21:08,279
Steve mentioned liking the under in this game until last

439
00:21:08,319 --> 00:21:11,200
week when Indiana held Ohio State and Check for four quarters.

440
00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:14,440
Washington was really the only defense that held Ohio State

441
00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:16,559
and Check for any length of time. Remember they Ohio

442
00:21:16,599 --> 00:21:18,519
State did not have any success in the first half

443
00:21:18,519 --> 00:21:21,079
when they went out to Seattle to face the Huskies.

444
00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:25,279
So this Washington team, you know, as Steve mentioned, they

445
00:21:25,279 --> 00:21:27,400
were on a contention of the Big ten for quite

446
00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:29,359
a while. So I think, people, this is a team

447
00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:31,119
that I have power rated quite high. I mean, to

448
00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:34,039
be taking money and laying nine and a half the

449
00:21:34,039 --> 00:21:37,440
Boise State, you got to be pretty damn good, you know,

450
00:21:37,799 --> 00:21:40,079
to obviously be this big of a favorite against the Broncos.

451
00:21:41,319 --> 00:21:44,319
Speaker 2: Well, let's look at strength the schedule. First, Boise played

452
00:21:44,319 --> 00:21:47,480
a very weak schedule. In fact, their schedule is number

453
00:21:47,519 --> 00:21:50,279
eighty two and even though they played that week of

454
00:21:50,319 --> 00:21:52,880
a schedule, they were only number fifty eight in yards

455
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:56,000
per play diff Plus zero point four to nine yards

456
00:21:56,039 --> 00:22:00,640
per play. Washington played the schedule ranked number four four,

457
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:05,200
so they played thirty six slots better and they were

458
00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:08,960
forty seven spots better. They were number fifteen in the country,

459
00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:13,519
top twenty at plus one point six to one yards

460
00:22:13,559 --> 00:22:18,079
per play. BYU played one of the fastest tempos this year,

461
00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:21,640
number ten seventy three point five plays per game, but

462
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:25,759
Washington was number ninety eight, averaging only sixty four point

463
00:22:25,799 --> 00:22:30,519
five plays per game. And when Washington played a winning team,

464
00:22:31,039 --> 00:22:35,000
they averaged under sixty plays per game, which was number

465
00:22:35,039 --> 00:22:41,000
one twenty two in the FBS. You know, Steve, before

466
00:22:41,039 --> 00:22:45,319
you logged on, I talked about Army Navy last year,

467
00:22:46,079 --> 00:22:50,119
and remember Army played Tulane in the AAC Championship, so

468
00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:52,880
they had a physical team while the opponent was prepping

469
00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:55,559
for him for two weeks. Not quite the situation because

470
00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:58,759
Washington didn't know who they were playing. But BYU up

471
00:22:58,799 --> 00:23:01,920
and down that field against UNLV, you know, we saw

472
00:23:02,079 --> 00:23:06,279
their defense on the field for seventy two plays against

473
00:23:06,319 --> 00:23:08,519
the Rebels, and they allowed one to eighty four to

474
00:23:08,759 --> 00:23:13,000
five point four yards per carry. One number. I do

475
00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:17,960
have remember the balls up until this year, we never

476
00:23:18,039 --> 00:23:22,440
had a Bowl that started prior to the Saturday after

477
00:23:22,759 --> 00:23:27,160
Army and Navy. But with the expanded playoffs and those

478
00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:29,680
two playoff games where there are no other Bowl games,

479
00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:32,400
that just shrinks the balls to too small, so they

480
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:36,279
had to start them earlier. There aren't many situations where

481
00:23:36,319 --> 00:23:39,559
a team played with thirteen days or or less of

482
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:42,359
rest playing in a bowl game. But if you are

483
00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:46,039
a favorite with under thirteen days of rest, you've gone

484
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:50,039
twenty five and fourteen sixty four point one percent. So

485
00:23:50,079 --> 00:23:53,119
there is something being the better team with that continuity

486
00:23:53,319 --> 00:23:56,160
of basic a traditional buy or less than a traditional

487
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:59,240
bye week. I do. I do think Washington gets the

488
00:23:59,319 --> 00:24:02,319
job done. Won't make my card because you always got

489
00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:04,799
to be afraid of Boise in a bowl game. You know,

490
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:08,640
it started the whole world with you know, with their

491
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:11,799
Oklahoma win back in the Fiesta Bowl, and they continue

492
00:24:11,839 --> 00:24:14,680
to pull out a lot of those tricks. So no

493
00:24:14,799 --> 00:24:18,480
action for me in the game, certainly lean Washington. Yeah,

494
00:24:18,519 --> 00:24:21,039
let's just put a ball on it here, Steve, just

495
00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:23,559
want to wrap up. This is gonna be Washington laying

496
00:24:23,559 --> 00:24:24,920
the number is gonna be your best bet for the

497
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:26,599
show here today as lead.

498
00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:28,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like it, and I like that angle Ralph

499
00:24:29,039 --> 00:24:30,839
is that in against the spread angle the twenty five

500
00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:32,359
and fourteen ats that.

501
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:33,960
Speaker 2: Is ats for the favorite.

502
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:36,119
Speaker 3: Steve, Yes, love it because that's actually an angle I

503
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:38,079
had not stumbled upon. That was some of the premise

504
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:40,079
behind the handicap, as I mentioned earlier, Brian, is that

505
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:41,720
you know, guys aren't opting now because this is like

506
00:24:41,759 --> 00:24:43,880
a traditional bye week against a team coming off a

507
00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:48,279
conference championship win, traveling on short rest basically, And I

508
00:24:48,319 --> 00:24:51,920
think Ralph's situational angle there really solidifies that. So I

509
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:53,519
do like them as the best bet for the show,

510
00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:55,240
and I want to give that out sooner than later.

511
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:57,039
Because when I did the video earlier this week, it

512
00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:59,240
was minus eight and a half. I mentioned that it's

513
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:01,519
now minus nine and a half. One of the Sharper

514
00:25:01,559 --> 00:25:04,079
Global books has a minus ten now. Yeah, and there's

515
00:25:04,079 --> 00:25:06,519
about a three to four percent chance that Washington wins

516
00:25:06,519 --> 00:25:09,119
this game by exactly ten points. It's a very key number.

517
00:25:09,839 --> 00:25:11,200
So if you're gonna play it, I would lay it

518
00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:13,480
sooner than later. With the Huskies minus nine and a half.

519
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:17,359
Speaker 1: All right, that's two legs of our three leg parlay

520
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:19,960
now in the books. Again, we're trying to sweep for

521
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:21,599
the third time in four weeks. Might will be coming

522
00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:23,559
up in just a little bit, but now we're gonna

523
00:25:23,559 --> 00:25:27,400
move to the Veterans Bowl between Troy and Jacksonville State.

524
00:25:27,519 --> 00:25:30,720
I hate guys. I hate when they pair two teams

525
00:25:31,519 --> 00:25:33,160
that I wanted to play against, and that's what we

526
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:35,240
have here. I don't think I'm gonna be getting too

527
00:25:35,279 --> 00:25:39,160
involved in this game. Troy. Look, they were a massive

528
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:43,279
underdog last week on conference championship weekend against James Madison.

529
00:25:43,279 --> 00:25:45,599
Of course, Jacksonville State. Kind of an interesting matchup here

530
00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:47,720
because you have two teams that obviously lost their conference

531
00:25:47,799 --> 00:25:50,240
championship game. We just talked about a game where one

532
00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:53,079
team was involved in conference championship weekend one and its

533
00:25:53,079 --> 00:25:55,759
opponent was not involved in conference championship weekend. But here

534
00:25:55,799 --> 00:25:58,000
we have two lous of the the loser of the

535
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:01,119
Sun Belt Conference championship game against the low of the

536
00:26:01,279 --> 00:26:05,920
Conference USA Championship game. I cannot lay it with Troy.

537
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:10,359
I think I thought Troy was one of no offense

538
00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:11,559
to Troy. I thought they were one of the worst

539
00:26:11,599 --> 00:26:14,160
teams ever being a conference championship game. Quite frankly, you

540
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:17,960
look at their yards per play differential, it stinks. But

541
00:26:18,039 --> 00:26:21,160
jackson Jacksonville State, nobody thought this team was going to

542
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:24,039
make a Conference USA championship game. They you know, rich

543
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:27,359
Rod going back home to West Virginia. They defied expectations.

544
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:29,519
So I don't know real quick, I'll just open the

545
00:26:29,559 --> 00:26:32,200
floor to either of you guys. This is not a

546
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:34,519
game that I, as of right now have a ton

547
00:26:34,559 --> 00:26:35,079
of interest in.

548
00:26:37,319 --> 00:26:39,759
Speaker 2: Well, you know it is. It is an in state

549
00:26:39,799 --> 00:26:41,920
game for both teams, so at least they will have

550
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:43,880
some fans there. We won't have to look at one

551
00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:46,880
of those empty stadiums that we sometimes see in these

552
00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:49,799
early bowls. Let me just break down the stats. Troy

553
00:26:49,839 --> 00:26:54,200
played a week's schedule number ninety three in the FBS.

554
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:57,680
They were number one hundred and seventeenth, getting out gained

555
00:26:57,680 --> 00:27:02,440
by almost a yardber game minus point nine five. Jacksonville

556
00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:05,799
State is number sixty three in yards per game death,

557
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:09,039
so they are fifty four spots better. The problem is this,

558
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:13,799
there's one hundred and thirty six FBS teams. Jacksonville State

559
00:27:13,839 --> 00:27:17,599
has played the number one hundred and forty second toughest schedule,

560
00:27:17,839 --> 00:27:21,759
So that means at least seven FCS teams played a

561
00:27:21,799 --> 00:27:27,400
tougher schedule than Jacksonville State. I was leaning Troy, but

562
00:27:27,559 --> 00:27:31,799
I'll tell you I can't get there. With their best

563
00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:36,400
running back Meadows over seven hundred yards four point two

564
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:39,680
yards per carry. It doesn't sound great, but for Troy

565
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:43,200
it's significant because their number two rusher only has three

566
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:45,480
hundred and thirty three yards and three point nine yards

567
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:47,680
per carry. I don't think they're going to be able

568
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:51,839
to establish the run. I do think Jacksonville State will

569
00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:54,640
be able to establish the run. We've seen the rush

570
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:58,599
defense for Troy away from home allow over two hundred

571
00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:01,599
yards per game and five point four yards per carry.

572
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:05,400
This Jacksonville State team rushing for two point fifty five

573
00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:10,359
point six yards per carry rushing matchups one of Troy's

574
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:14,279
best players. Opting out does have me with Jacksonville State

575
00:28:14,319 --> 00:28:15,559
and the game Cocks.

576
00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:18,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, and Troy also is going to have an issue

577
00:28:18,759 --> 00:28:22,079
at quarterback. Who's Crowder? At least it looks that way obviously,

578
00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:24,799
guys stay tuned to those injury reports. But Crowder the

579
00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:27,880
quarterback was seen he left the Sun Belt championship game

580
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:30,079
with an injury. He was on crutches afterwards, So it

581
00:28:30,079 --> 00:28:33,839
could be Tucker Kilcrease, who did start seven games this year,

582
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:35,839
so it's not like he's a guy with no experience,

583
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:39,720
but that is something to monitor there for the.

584
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:43,079
Speaker 2: You know, you know, kill Chris. Let me just say this,

585
00:28:44,279 --> 00:28:49,319
Crowder fifty six point seven eleven to five ratio, Kill

586
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:52,680
Chris fifty eight point three percent better a nine to

587
00:28:52,759 --> 00:28:56,440
five ratio, and kill Chris has a better YPA. So

588
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:59,640
it's not the drop off you might expect. It's just that,

589
00:29:00,279 --> 00:29:02,160
you know, he got a lot of playing time with

590
00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:05,759
Crowder heard earlier, and they just gave Jared Parker just

591
00:29:05,759 --> 00:29:08,519
gave his starting quarterback back because they were so close.

592
00:29:08,599 --> 00:29:11,720
So not quite the drop off you might think with

593
00:29:11,839 --> 00:29:14,319
saying I lost a guy who started the last eight games.

594
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:14,640
Speaker 4: Yeah.

595
00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:17,200
Speaker 1: Absolutely, just just wanted to note it there, Steve Again,

596
00:29:17,319 --> 00:29:18,480
just if you wanted to put a ball out of

597
00:29:18,519 --> 00:29:21,160
two teams off conference championship losses, how do you know?

598
00:29:21,279 --> 00:29:23,359
It's hard because normally you would think, all right, maybe

599
00:29:23,359 --> 00:29:25,839
this team is just gonna be a letdown mode, but

600
00:29:26,039 --> 00:29:28,519
we've got two teams in the exact same situation here.

601
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:31,720
Speaker 3: I'll say this, I think the sure thing in this

602
00:29:31,799 --> 00:29:33,599
game is that Jacksonville State's going to run for more

603
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:36,400
yards offensively rushing the ball. And I'm getting more than

604
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:38,920
a field goal dog here that I'm almost ninety nine

605
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:40,839
percent certain is going to win the rushing attack in

606
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:44,400
a bowl game on short preparation time for Troy. Jacksonville

607
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:46,200
State runs the ball in about sixty seven percent of

608
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:48,960
their plays, average over two hundred and fifty nine rushing

609
00:29:49,039 --> 00:29:51,720
yards a game. And then on top of that, Troy

610
00:29:52,359 --> 00:29:54,599
is not a good offensive team, terrible rushing team two

611
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:57,359
point eight yards per carry, and as Roff mentioned, their

612
00:29:57,359 --> 00:30:00,440
top running back is opting out and as you as

613
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:04,039
you mentioned, Brian, their quarterback is injured questionable now. They

614
00:30:04,039 --> 00:30:06,720
made the switch after early November. So I really think

615
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:09,359
there's two mediocre quarterbacks. I don't worry too much about that,

616
00:30:09,519 --> 00:30:12,640
but still maybe missing your preferred quarterback, missing your top

617
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:15,759
running back, and they're laying points here and they're coming

618
00:30:15,799 --> 00:30:20,000
off the loss to James Madison. Meanwhile, I liked Kennesaw

619
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:21,960
in that game against Jacksonville State. I did a video

620
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:24,680
for that game last week. I recommend at Kennessaul it

621
00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:27,359
was a quick revenge spot for Kennasau State after losing

622
00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:29,519
in November fifteenth in the game which ate a thirty

623
00:30:29,519 --> 00:30:32,960
one to eighteen first down edge against Jacksonville State. So

624
00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:36,119
I don't really penalize Jacksonville State for losing that game.

625
00:30:36,519 --> 00:30:38,279
I think they might be the better team. I definitely

626
00:30:38,279 --> 00:30:40,680
think they're the more focused team in this game, and

627
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:43,240
they're almost a ninety nine percent certainty to a more

628
00:30:43,319 --> 00:30:45,839
rushing yards I'm getting plus three. They look like a

629
00:30:45,839 --> 00:30:47,079
live dog on Tuesday Night.

630
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:49,599
Speaker 1: Yes, go ahead, thank you for I was gonna mention

631
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:53,880
that Steve. This game takes place Tuesday night, nine o'clock Eastern,

632
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:58,000
and as Ralph mentioned, it is in Montgomery, Alabama. Jacksonville

633
00:30:58,039 --> 00:31:01,279
State is located in Alabama's okay, in Florida. Some people

634
00:31:01,319 --> 00:31:05,319
still may be unaware, of course, Troy also in Alabama school.

635
00:31:05,359 --> 00:31:07,200
All right, we've reached the halfway porn in the program.

636
00:31:07,319 --> 00:31:09,599
Let's talk about what we've got going on at wager

637
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:13,480
talk dot com. For me, I've already loaded my Sunday

638
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NFL card, did it this morning. Very excited about this

639
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Sunday's NFL card. We've won sixty seven percent of our

640
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NFL sides and totals the last four weeks. I have

641
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three plays you can currently get for just twenty nine

642
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dollars on Sunday, including my top play for week fifteen.

643
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I'm also playing Sunday Night Football. I've got a total

644
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that I'm playing this week as well. I am four

645
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for four with NFL totals this season. I've not played

646
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a ton of totals, but i have won all of them.

647
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So you can get all three plays currently at my

648
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649
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nine dollars. But don't forget, we have expanded at Wagertalk

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651
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football for Saturday and Sunday. Well now for forty nine

652
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dollars you get every sport now. I'm doing college basketball soccer,

653
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you got the NBA. The NBA comp is this weekend,

654
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so there's a lot to bet on this weekend and

655
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:01,319
we will all. I'm sure Ralph and Steve will have

656
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:03,599
you covered as well, so do I WT dot Buzz

657
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slash VP again. Three NFL plays up for Sunday twenty

658
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659
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660
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661
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Saturday and Sunday, Ralph, I'll go to you next.

662
00:32:19,039 --> 00:32:22,559
Speaker 2: Another special, Brian, is our Bowl Special one forty nine.

663
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Get you every Bowl release from your favorite handicapper. Want

664
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665
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667
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668
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a much deeper dive. How about an eleven and one

669
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670
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672
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673
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Speaker 1: And Steve, thank you for joining us this week. Of course,

674
00:33:06,279 --> 00:33:08,160
sitting in for Ross Pedro. I believe Ross will be

675
00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:09,839
back next week, but Steve has said in before it

676
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:11,640
has done an excellent job. I'm doing an excellent job

677
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again here today. What do you have going on at

678
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wagertalk dot com this weekend?

679
00:33:15,839 --> 00:33:17,920
Speaker 3: Thank you, Brian, I appreciate you having me and yeah,

680
00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:19,880
looking forward to our great December here. You know, let's

681
00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:21,680
not just forget it's not just Bowl season, but the

682
00:33:21,759 --> 00:33:24,720
NFL regular season playoffs around the corner, college and pro

683
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basketball on a daily basis. That's four major sports going

684
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that I handicap right now. So it's a great time

685
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686
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687
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every client gets the exact same personal best bets that

688
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689
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691
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692
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you're building your bank roll, get the daily free play

693
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right now. Steve Merrill wager talk dot com and here

694
00:33:52,559 --> 00:33:55,039
on wager talkTV. Click subscribe, click that bell for an

695
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instant alert, because I am truly giving you every single

696
00:33:57,640 --> 00:34:00,599
Bowl game here during the bowl season, and also a

697
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ton of free NFL videos. You know, last week guys

698
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free play on my page and the videos I gave

699
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you twenty one of the twenty three football games for

700
00:34:07,359 --> 00:34:10,280
free last week college and pro football. I'm thinking, what

701
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:13,159
am I doing? This is a terrible business model. But

702
00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:16,239
then I realized, you know, these are light opinions. A

703
00:34:16,280 --> 00:34:18,000
lot of these games we're talking about today light wings.

704
00:34:18,039 --> 00:34:18,159
Speaker 2: Right.

705
00:34:18,199 --> 00:34:20,320
Speaker 3: The only way to know my official best bets is

706
00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:22,039
to go to wager talk dot com. You can get

707
00:34:22,039 --> 00:34:26,880
there quicker with shortcut wt dot buzz slash sm all right.

708
00:34:27,519 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 1: Steve Merrill a busy man this holiday season.

709
00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:32,440
Speaker 3: It added up fast. I realized I'd done twenty of

710
00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:34,599
the twenty three games, and I posted one Sunday as

711
00:34:34,599 --> 00:34:36,360
my free NFL play, So it was twenty one of

712
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:39,599
the twenty three and uh yeah, you know, I mean, look,

713
00:34:39,639 --> 00:34:42,440
I'm as you guys know, right, we're already handicapping these games, right,

714
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:45,599
so why waste the information, Let's make it available do videos.

715
00:34:45,639 --> 00:34:47,920
And that's the same concept of that free play every day.

716
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:50,480
It's truly the last cut. And you know you never

717
00:34:50,519 --> 00:34:52,239
want the game you drop from your best bet card

718
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:53,920
to win. You're always kind of like I should have

719
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:55,639
used it. But when you put it up for a

720
00:34:55,679 --> 00:34:57,440
free playing, thousands of people get it. It's a nice

721
00:34:57,480 --> 00:34:58,119
little hedge.

722
00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:00,760
Speaker 1: Absolutely. And of course Ralph su earlier, he's got his

723
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:03,159
TNA video coming up for the Bulls. You can catch

724
00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:06,039
me basically doing a million different shows. Full Court Press

725
00:35:06,079 --> 00:35:09,320
with Adam Trigger and Rob Veno every ten every Monday

726
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:11,760
through Friday, ten am Eastern, Deep Dive in the College

727
00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:14,119
Basketball Card. I've got the Power Five coming up this weekend.

728
00:35:14,159 --> 00:35:16,679
I subbed in for the pres on the best betting

729
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:18,760
show ever. It was Joe Ranairean I, which was.

730
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:25,719
Speaker 3: For yes, Yes became full circle Yes.

731
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:27,559
Speaker 1: Steve and I. We don't say it's it's nice to

732
00:35:27,559 --> 00:35:29,159
work with you here Steve on the show this week

733
00:35:29,599 --> 00:35:33,159
because we're we're always doing somebody shows the two of us.

734
00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:34,639
Speaker 3: And some people think we're the same person. So this

735
00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:35,840
is this has proven them wrong.

736
00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:39,639
Speaker 1: Yes, all right, let's get to the next Bowl game. Guys.

737
00:35:39,679 --> 00:35:41,519
I know that we're going out. There's still some days advance,

738
00:35:41,559 --> 00:35:45,199
but we will look this show of course live. You know,

739
00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:47,400
Ralph Ross and I have been doing it all season

740
00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:51,920
live every Thursday, one pm Eastern. So these these Bowl

741
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:53,800
games we're just gonna hit real quick. We're not gonna

742
00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:55,199
have a chance to talk about him obviously when we

743
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:57,239
go live next week and our next one. I have

744
00:35:57,280 --> 00:35:59,719
a very strong take on the next game. It is

745
00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:03,519
the Cure Bowl, which takes place Wednesday, December seventeenth. I

746
00:36:03,559 --> 00:36:05,400
talked about this game earlier in the week with Andy

747
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:09,519
Lang on wager Talk. Today I did a segment two

748
00:36:09,599 --> 00:36:12,119
bold teams to fade. You could check that out right

749
00:36:12,119 --> 00:36:14,559
now elsewhere here, not only on my page wt dot

750
00:36:14,559 --> 00:36:17,679
buz slash VP, but on the wager dot YouTube channel. Guys,

751
00:36:17,679 --> 00:36:19,800
I'm gonna run through this real quick. I like Old

752
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:22,679
Dominion a lot in this game. USF is a team

753
00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:24,400
I am most This is a client play by the

754
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:25,559
way for me, I'm gonna give it to you for

755
00:36:25,599 --> 00:36:28,840
free right now. USF I am definitely looking to fade

756
00:36:29,119 --> 00:36:30,519
is one of the top teams. I'm looking to fade

757
00:36:30,519 --> 00:36:33,840
this bullseason. Why it's a program in transition. They're going

758
00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:36,559
through a coaching change. Alex Golish he's off to Auburn.

759
00:36:36,639 --> 00:36:39,840
He's being replaced by Brian Hartline, who's the offensive coordinator

760
00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:42,320
at Ohio State. You're gonna have new players coming in

761
00:36:42,679 --> 00:36:46,679
players know, existing players maybe looking to go elsewhere. You

762
00:36:46,719 --> 00:36:48,920
got the new coaching staff heading to Tampa, so the

763
00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:52,239
existing group is wondering about its future. On top of that,

764
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:54,840
I have to wonder, far be it for me to

765
00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:57,599
question another human beings motivation. But I have to wonder

766
00:36:58,000 --> 00:37:01,920
even the USF seniors are they excited about this final game.

767
00:37:01,960 --> 00:37:04,599
This is a team USF that had a college football

768
00:37:04,639 --> 00:37:08,760
Playoff aspirations less than a month ago. Now they're playing

769
00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:10,280
in one of the very first bowl games. And it's

770
00:37:10,280 --> 00:37:12,320
not even a destination. It's just a hop, skip and

771
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:14,920
a jump across the state from Tampa to Orlando. So

772
00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:16,679
I don't think we're gonna get a real solid effort

773
00:37:16,679 --> 00:37:19,760
from the Bulls. And keep in mind, I felt this way.

774
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:23,079
I talked about this game on wager Doc day before

775
00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:26,840
the key op that was announced on Tuesday night or

776
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:30,239
pardon me, Wednesday night. A quarterback Byron Brown, he's not

777
00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:32,599
gonna play. I'm pretty sure he's not gonna be only

778
00:37:32,679 --> 00:37:36,239
USF player making that decision. I know Odu's starting quarterback

779
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:40,000
Colton Joseph. He's hit the portal, but his likely replacement

780
00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:42,800
is a guy he's made one career start. He ran

781
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:44,920
for over two hundred yards in it. Oh, by the way,

782
00:37:45,639 --> 00:37:48,480
I just think the USFQB situation is a little murkier.

783
00:37:49,519 --> 00:37:52,800
Whoever's going to replace Brown not a lot of experience there.

784
00:37:53,119 --> 00:37:55,440
Keep in mind, it remains to be seen who's going

785
00:37:55,519 --> 00:37:58,559
to be calling plays for the USF offense as well.

786
00:37:58,920 --> 00:38:03,039
The market moved towards ODU even with the Joseph news.

787
00:38:03,199 --> 00:38:05,280
Then we saw a second move after Brown opted out.

788
00:38:05,320 --> 00:38:08,000
No surprise there. I think ODEU is gonna be motivated.

789
00:38:08,039 --> 00:38:10,920
They were not in the Bowl last season, you know,

790
00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:14,239
and it's just their fourth Bowl game ever for the record,

791
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:17,719
So ODU is gonna be more motivated. I know that

792
00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:20,079
we're not getting the best available number anymore at three

793
00:38:20,079 --> 00:38:22,880
and a half, I still like it. I think ODU

794
00:38:22,920 --> 00:38:24,440
is probably gonna win this game out right, So that's

795
00:38:24,480 --> 00:38:26,639
my show. Best bet. We'll recap it at the end,

796
00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:28,199
ODU plus the red and a half. If either of

797
00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:30,280
you guys I would like to follow up, I'd be

798
00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:31,719
more than happy.

799
00:38:32,159 --> 00:38:34,199
Speaker 2: I am going to disagree with you, Brian, so I'll

800
00:38:34,199 --> 00:38:39,440
go first so we can hear to me. It's totally

801
00:38:39,480 --> 00:38:44,599
different if your coach got fired and your program's on

802
00:38:44,639 --> 00:38:48,800
a downward swing. If you're an offensive player, you are

803
00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:52,159
freaking ecstatic with this hire. This is from the Ohio

804
00:38:52,199 --> 00:38:56,760
State legacy. Who's he's coached, how he recruits wide receivers,

805
00:38:56,920 --> 00:39:00,519
he can bring in top talent. Yes, since only Orlando.

806
00:39:00,599 --> 00:39:04,159
But remember next year. Is it next year or two years?

807
00:39:04,280 --> 00:39:06,679
Maybe it's two years. They are building a brand new

808
00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:10,360
thirty five thousand seat stadium. This program is building, They're

809
00:39:10,400 --> 00:39:12,719
starting to get money in. They found some investors to

810
00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:15,280
bring in. I don't think you're gonna have the opt outs.

811
00:39:15,559 --> 00:39:18,639
And while Brown did opt out at quarterback, he is

812
00:39:18,679 --> 00:39:21,840
going to be an assistant helping helping the offense at

813
00:39:21,920 --> 00:39:24,559
the game. So you still have that camaraderie. You don't

814
00:39:24,599 --> 00:39:27,719
have someone who's being selfish and leaving. He's being selfish

815
00:39:27,760 --> 00:39:31,280
and still being involved. I lean USF, but not nearly

816
00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:34,519
enough to talk you out of anyone from your best bet.

817
00:39:34,760 --> 00:39:35,840
Just my lean on the game.

818
00:39:36,280 --> 00:39:38,480
Speaker 1: All right, Steve, we've got a little disagreement on this one.

819
00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:41,039
If you'd like to break the tie here on the

820
00:39:41,199 --> 00:39:42,519
Cure Bowl Wednesday night.

821
00:39:43,639 --> 00:39:46,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I'm gonna do some videos on this later

822
00:39:46,039 --> 00:39:48,360
this weekend for next week's games. I hadn't dug into

823
00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:49,840
this one too much. That's what I was looking forward

824
00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:51,239
to doing the show today. And boy, did you make

825
00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:53,440
a great case, Brian. So when Ralf's season, I disagree.

826
00:39:53,480 --> 00:39:54,880
I wanted to hear his side of the story, and

827
00:39:54,920 --> 00:39:56,920
I do think he brings up an excellent point about

828
00:39:57,199 --> 00:40:00,519
the continuity. Maybe we don't get that letdown, but I'll

829
00:40:00,559 --> 00:40:03,400
still say this about Old Dominion. They have the better

830
00:40:03,519 --> 00:40:06,280
defense in my rankings. They're a solid team on both

831
00:40:06,320 --> 00:40:08,079
sides of the ball. And yes, as you said, that

832
00:40:08,119 --> 00:40:10,199
line's gone from seven down to three, but you're still

833
00:40:10,199 --> 00:40:13,000
getting them as an underdog in a situation which they

834
00:40:13,119 --> 00:40:14,760
very well might win out right. And let's look at

835
00:40:14,800 --> 00:40:17,599
those defensive numbers for Old Dominion this year. They gave

836
00:40:17,679 --> 00:40:20,639
up just nineteen points a game, just four point eight

837
00:40:20,679 --> 00:40:23,360
yards per play, just six yards per pass against teams

838
00:40:23,360 --> 00:40:26,519
at average seven point two. Now South Florida average nine

839
00:40:26,559 --> 00:40:29,639
point one yards per pass this year, and explosive passing attack.

840
00:40:30,119 --> 00:40:32,280
But the loss of Byron Brown is legit. This guy

841
00:40:32,320 --> 00:40:34,559
averaged over nine yards of pass a twenty eight to

842
00:40:34,639 --> 00:40:39,480
seven touchdown interception ratio. So the question becomes can the

843
00:40:39,599 --> 00:40:41,920
backup do anywhere near as well? We don't have much

844
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:45,119
to look at Gaston Moore fourteen for twenty two point

845
00:40:45,159 --> 00:40:48,159
seven yards per pass, And then we had a lock

846
00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:51,000
in Hewlett who threw one pass for a forty five

847
00:40:51,079 --> 00:40:53,639
yard touchdown. He was perfect, but yet a lot of

848
00:40:53,719 --> 00:40:56,039
uncertainty in this game about where the backup is. But

849
00:40:56,079 --> 00:40:58,000
I can't imagine they're going to be as good as

850
00:40:58,039 --> 00:41:01,199
Brown and Old Dominion is a good defensive team. So

851
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:03,800
you know, I think your handicap makes a lot of sense.

852
00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:05,679
I wouldn't let that line move from seven to three

853
00:41:05,719 --> 00:41:07,440
scare you because you're still getting out of you plus

854
00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:08,920
a field goal and what could be a straight up

855
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:09,599
one situation.

856
00:41:10,280 --> 00:41:12,719
Speaker 1: Yeah. I remember last year it was a Christmas Eve

857
00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:16,360
I bet this USF team. I remember Brown's status for

858
00:41:16,400 --> 00:41:18,199
that game was a big question mark. He ended up

859
00:41:18,199 --> 00:41:21,280
not playing. I remember just on a personal level, I

860
00:41:21,280 --> 00:41:23,639
remember like were like convulsing in bed because that game

861
00:41:23,679 --> 00:41:26,119
came down to two point conversions and I had plus

862
00:41:26,119 --> 00:41:28,960
two and a half, and then both teams were kicking

863
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:31,559
extra points to force extra over in the first overtime.

864
00:41:31,760 --> 00:41:33,840
I remember cashing that play. I had to be quiet.

865
00:41:34,239 --> 00:41:35,880
Speaker 2: You got to love the new rule. Right there, you

866
00:41:35,920 --> 00:41:36,639
go for two points.

867
00:41:36,840 --> 00:41:39,280
Speaker 1: Yes, my daughter was dreaming of Santa Claus and my

868
00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:41,000
wife next to me was asleep, but I was trying

869
00:41:41,000 --> 00:41:42,639
not to make it a convulsing and she's like, are

870
00:41:42,639 --> 00:41:45,119
you okay. I'm like, oh, honey, I'm just watching the Hawaii.

871
00:41:47,800 --> 00:41:49,559
Speaker 3: I was gonna say, Ralph real quick, if I'm not mistaken,

872
00:41:49,559 --> 00:41:51,840
I think Old Dominion's quarterback has entered the transfer portal.

873
00:41:52,079 --> 00:41:53,400
Speaker 1: Yes, Joseph has.

874
00:41:53,440 --> 00:41:56,320
Speaker 3: So Quinn Heneikey or Hennikele. I don't know if it's

875
00:41:56,320 --> 00:41:58,239
a honey Key relative or not. Who obviously was the

876
00:41:58,239 --> 00:42:00,920
star that went to the Redskins. Yeah, I mean so

877
00:42:00,960 --> 00:42:03,400
that's a concern there too. I mean, both quarterbacks out.

878
00:42:03,519 --> 00:42:05,079
You know, I guess you can maybe make a case

879
00:42:05,079 --> 00:42:07,480
for the under because once again, this is going from

880
00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:09,360
fifty seven to fifty four. And as I said, Old

881
00:42:09,360 --> 00:42:10,880
Dominions had a good defense this year.

882
00:42:12,199 --> 00:42:14,880
Speaker 2: You know that Steve stole my thunder. Next time come

883
00:42:14,920 --> 00:42:15,719
to me first, Brian.

884
00:42:15,880 --> 00:42:18,280
Speaker 3: Oh, you know that was not where you're going with it.

885
00:42:18,519 --> 00:42:20,800
You know, Steve jump into ammunition for your reason to

886
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:22,239
play against Old Dominion earlier.

887
00:42:22,280 --> 00:42:24,880
Speaker 2: Old Dominion only played three teams with the winning record

888
00:42:24,880 --> 00:42:28,079
this year, but when they played those teams, they only

889
00:42:28,119 --> 00:42:31,119
averaged thirty four point three points per game. That was

890
00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:34,960
last in the FBS. While USF is a fast paced

891
00:42:35,039 --> 00:42:38,519
team number thirty four in the country at sixty nine

892
00:42:38,559 --> 00:42:42,440
point seven plays per game, you can't run at that

893
00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:44,599
pace with a quarterback who doesn't know the offense like

894
00:42:44,639 --> 00:42:46,920
Byron Brown does. I'm a multi year starter, so I

895
00:42:47,000 --> 00:42:49,320
agree with the under as well, Steve that you know

896
00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:52,119
USF was going to play as slow as they have.

897
00:42:52,480 --> 00:42:54,079
We know Old Dominion is going to play this as

898
00:42:54,119 --> 00:42:56,880
slow as they have. And USF even though Brown has

899
00:42:56,920 --> 00:42:58,880
a lot of yards. You also remember Brown was the

900
00:42:58,920 --> 00:43:01,880
leading rusher on the team nine hundred and four yards.

901
00:43:01,920 --> 00:43:04,719
The next the next meeting, running back only five hundred

902
00:43:04,719 --> 00:43:06,719
and forty six yards. So how I had an under

903
00:43:06,760 --> 00:43:07,880
into the mix for me as well.

904
00:43:08,280 --> 00:43:11,119
Speaker 3: Yeah, and USF's defense was good twenty three and a

905
00:43:11,119 --> 00:43:13,239
half points against teams at average twenty nine and a half,

906
00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:15,360
five point one yards per play against teams at average

907
00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:18,199
almost six. So you know, check the opt outs for

908
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:21,199
both defenses here. But we're missing both starting quarterbacks. We

909
00:43:21,280 --> 00:43:23,760
got the defenses decent. Yeah, I'm starting to like the

910
00:43:23,840 --> 00:43:27,280
under here as well. I like Odu the Monarchs.

911
00:43:27,559 --> 00:43:29,119
Speaker 1: We don't have a We don't have a king here

912
00:43:29,159 --> 00:43:31,840
in the United States, but I like the Monarchs. We

913
00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:33,880
don't this way, No, we don't have a king, believe

914
00:43:33,880 --> 00:43:36,239
it or not. No, No, there's.

915
00:43:35,760 --> 00:43:37,679
Speaker 2: No problem, no political talk on the plan.

916
00:43:37,880 --> 00:43:40,159
Speaker 1: No no, no, no, no political talk. But I will

917
00:43:40,199 --> 00:43:42,840
say again just to recap, just with the way the

918
00:43:42,880 --> 00:43:46,599
markets moved. Joseph had hit the portal the quarterback for Odu,

919
00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:49,159
and the markets still moved in Odu's direction. Then came

920
00:43:49,239 --> 00:43:52,480
the big the big move came when Brown opted out.

921
00:43:52,880 --> 00:43:55,400
We record this obviously, we're live here on Thursday. He

922
00:43:55,519 --> 00:43:59,000
officially opted out last night, Wednesday night. I'll have to

923
00:43:59,039 --> 00:43:59,760
change up. I right up.

924
00:44:00,039 --> 00:44:03,480
Speaker 2: But you know it's different too. During the regular season,

925
00:44:03,639 --> 00:44:05,360
no one here on the show would ever tell you

926
00:44:05,400 --> 00:44:07,760
to bet into a three point line move. If you're

927
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:10,679
betting into a line move because players opted out, that

928
00:44:10,840 --> 00:44:12,880
is not the same thing. If you are comfortable with

929
00:44:12,920 --> 00:44:15,760
the line with those players gone, bet the game and

930
00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:18,239
don't worry how much it moved, because it really is

931
00:44:18,280 --> 00:44:21,679
like resetting Anne when you get this big news. So

932
00:44:22,199 --> 00:44:24,360
totally different in the bowls on the app playing a

933
00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:25,639
line move than in the regular season.

934
00:44:25,679 --> 00:44:27,679
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's such a great point, Ralph. It's the same, Brian,

935
00:44:27,719 --> 00:44:30,519
as an NFL preseason game. It's all information based, it's

936
00:44:30,519 --> 00:44:34,239
all player personnel availability base. It's quarterback based obviously in

937
00:44:34,280 --> 00:44:36,800
this game, and that's an extra point by Ralph. You

938
00:44:36,840 --> 00:44:39,800
have to realize seven was not the correct line based

939
00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:41,360
in the current lineups, right, so it was just a

940
00:44:41,440 --> 00:44:44,519
rogue number. And now three if you got to decide

941
00:44:44,679 --> 00:44:45,800
is that the true number or not.

942
00:44:47,400 --> 00:44:49,239
Speaker 1: Let's just do these last two. Well, I'll kind of

943
00:44:49,280 --> 00:44:53,199
group them together, guys, the bulls as we kind of

944
00:44:53,239 --> 00:44:55,719
go deeper into next week. But again, these bulls will

945
00:44:55,760 --> 00:44:58,079
have happened by when we go live now for next

946
00:44:58,079 --> 00:44:59,920
week shows. And I also want to get some just

947
00:45:00,119 --> 00:45:03,000
early college football playoff thoughts. I saw some people in

948
00:45:03,039 --> 00:45:06,480
the chat going talking college football playoff already, so we

949
00:45:06,519 --> 00:45:08,519
do want to get a little discussion of that in

950
00:45:08,719 --> 00:45:12,039
here in the hours. So we've got two teams making

951
00:45:12,079 --> 00:45:15,159
their bold debut in their very first year as an

952
00:45:15,239 --> 00:45:18,679
FBS program because obviously some teams elected not to play

953
00:45:18,840 --> 00:45:24,079
MOWLD games this year, both Delaware and Missouri State. They

954
00:45:24,119 --> 00:45:26,519
waived what is a stupid rule anyway, that teams can't

955
00:45:26,559 --> 00:45:29,079
make bowls in their first two years as an FBS program.

956
00:45:29,599 --> 00:45:34,079
Delaware will be playing Louisiana that is in the Ventures Bowl.

957
00:45:34,119 --> 00:45:37,599
I know when people get wax poetic and wax nostalgic

958
00:45:37,679 --> 00:45:40,639
about the bulls, like the Ventures Bowl. It sounds like,

959
00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:42,639
you know, something where a group of people are going

960
00:45:42,679 --> 00:45:44,320
to lose a lot of money. And then we've got

961
00:45:44,320 --> 00:45:48,559
Missouri State against an Arkansas State team. Arkansas State is

962
00:45:49,159 --> 00:45:53,039
I think Delaware and Missouri State guys potentially are live

963
00:45:53,079 --> 00:45:54,960
to win these gifts. I think they're gonna care a lot,

964
00:45:55,119 --> 00:45:58,079
and I thought their respective opponents, Louisiana and Arkansas State

965
00:45:58,159 --> 00:46:01,480
had bad years. So I have made any official decision yet.

966
00:46:01,519 --> 00:46:03,320
But to me, I don't know what you guys just

967
00:46:03,360 --> 00:46:06,000
think conceptually, here's a team and it's first. Here's two

968
00:46:06,000 --> 00:46:08,599
teams playing their first ever bowl game. Delaware Missouri State.

969
00:46:08,679 --> 00:46:11,159
New FBS programs. You know they're gonna be You have

970
00:46:11,199 --> 00:46:12,400
to figure they're gonna be excited.

971
00:46:15,039 --> 00:46:20,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. Okay, you know, Brian asked me, I did.

972
00:46:20,400 --> 00:46:24,280
I don't have information on a coach's first bowl game. Obviously,

973
00:46:24,360 --> 00:46:27,719
these teams were FCS, you know, for Missouri State, they

974
00:46:27,719 --> 00:46:30,400
were in the playoffs, you know, the FCS playoffs a

975
00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:34,280
few years ago. I'll just say this, I did not

976
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:37,199
look at these games very much. My early leans on

977
00:46:37,280 --> 00:46:42,280
these games were Delaware and Arkansas State. Yeah, Arkansas State

978
00:46:42,360 --> 00:46:45,480
has six losses, but you know. I look at I

979
00:46:45,519 --> 00:46:48,559
look at Missouri State and the way they finished the

980
00:46:48,599 --> 00:46:52,280
season losing to Knnessaw State and losing to Louisiana Tech.

981
00:46:53,280 --> 00:46:58,960
I think Arkansas State has a little better offense, even

982
00:46:59,000 --> 00:47:01,360
though that you know, They're numbers aren't wild. They're numbers

983
00:47:01,360 --> 00:47:04,400
three eighty five versus three ninety two, but the strength

984
00:47:04,400 --> 00:47:07,119
of schedule is significant, so I will just shoot the

985
00:47:07,199 --> 00:47:11,199
numbers year to date numbers. With the schedule. Missouri State

986
00:47:11,280 --> 00:47:14,199
played the one hundred and fourteenth schedule their number sixty seven,

987
00:47:14,639 --> 00:47:18,039
Arkansas State number one nineteen. That would lean Missouri State,

988
00:47:18,400 --> 00:47:21,320
but the reason Arkansas State has played so poorly they

989
00:47:21,320 --> 00:47:25,360
were minus nine turnovers this year. Missouri State was even.

990
00:47:25,719 --> 00:47:27,920
That gets you ne extra win eror two on the season.

991
00:47:27,920 --> 00:47:32,280
I lean Arkansas State and Delaware. In Louisiana, Louisiana's played

992
00:47:32,280 --> 00:47:34,840
the one hundred and ninth schedule, Delaware the one twenty seventh,

993
00:47:35,119 --> 00:47:38,880
Delaware ninety nine Louisiana one oh seven, both pretty even.

994
00:47:39,519 --> 00:47:42,119
But it's such a weird bowl game. There is not

995
00:47:42,320 --> 00:47:45,119
one bowl game this year where both teams are top

996
00:47:45,199 --> 00:47:48,320
twenty five tempo. It seems like every fast temple team

997
00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:51,480
is every playing every slow Temple team. So all those

998
00:47:51,519 --> 00:47:54,360
bowl totals, I love getting couple up Temple teams with

999
00:47:54,440 --> 00:47:57,239
couple young quarterbacks that are learning to play the game.

1000
00:47:57,800 --> 00:48:01,079
Not much value in that, but my leans, the slightest

1001
00:48:01,079 --> 00:48:04,679
of Lean's neither will make my card. Arkansas State and Delaware.

1002
00:48:05,239 --> 00:48:07,239
Speaker 1: Steve, anything you want to say about these two games.

1003
00:48:07,519 --> 00:48:09,840
Speaker 3: Well, that Arkansas State game is at nine o'clock PM

1004
00:48:09,840 --> 00:48:12,639
Eastern Thursday night, so I'll let Ross next week chime

1005
00:48:12,719 --> 00:48:15,599
in on that one for me. But this other Wednesday

1006
00:48:15,599 --> 00:48:18,760
game before we sign off, Lafayette, you know UL lafayete Delaware.

1007
00:48:18,760 --> 00:48:20,920
By the way, I looked this up because where do

1008
00:48:20,920 --> 00:48:24,239
they go By the University of Louisiana, and then we

1009
00:48:24,280 --> 00:48:27,760
see the betting rotations, I'll say UL Lafayette. They still

1010
00:48:27,800 --> 00:48:30,760
are UL Lafayette. Actually I looked at Wikipedia that a

1011
00:48:30,760 --> 00:48:32,480
few weeks ago, and I was doing a weeknight video

1012
00:48:32,519 --> 00:48:36,320
because it was driving me crazy. So either as apparently acceptable.

1013
00:48:36,960 --> 00:48:39,079
Delaware obviously a team I'm very familiar with. They were

1014
00:48:39,079 --> 00:48:40,760
in the CAA up until a year ago for both

1015
00:48:40,840 --> 00:48:43,880
basketball and football my neck of the woods, no question

1016
00:48:44,000 --> 00:48:46,159
they will be excited for their first year here in

1017
00:48:46,679 --> 00:48:49,559
Division one A football FBS to be in a bowl game.

1018
00:48:50,000 --> 00:48:52,519
I do think UL Lafayette is the better team overall.

1019
00:48:52,559 --> 00:48:54,360
That's why we're seeing them as a three point road

1020
00:48:54,400 --> 00:48:57,360
fair road favorite, three point favorite in this game. In Alabama,

1021
00:48:58,119 --> 00:49:00,639
opt outs are looking pretty clean on both sides the ball.

1022
00:49:00,960 --> 00:49:02,880
One thing that jumps out to me about you a lafiees.

1023
00:49:02,880 --> 00:49:05,400
They do not throw the ball well, struggle to pass

1024
00:49:05,440 --> 00:49:06,920
the ball this season, but they had a pretty good

1025
00:49:06,960 --> 00:49:10,280
rushing attack almost two hundred yards a game and delaware

1026
00:49:10,280 --> 00:49:12,760
both against the pass and the run. Pretty mediocre defense

1027
00:49:12,760 --> 00:49:14,639
giving up thirty two and a half points a game.

1028
00:49:15,199 --> 00:49:17,920
So if Louisiana lafiat is able to establish the rushing game,

1029
00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:20,760
they probably are the better team game. I'm have to

1030
00:49:20,840 --> 00:49:22,360
dig into a little bit deeper. I'll be doing a

1031
00:49:22,400 --> 00:49:24,679
video in this game, though, and right now looks like

1032
00:49:24,679 --> 00:49:27,280
a pretty evenly match game between two mediocre six and

1033
00:49:27,320 --> 00:49:27,920
six teams.

1034
00:49:29,000 --> 00:49:32,119
Speaker 1: All right, before we recap our best bets, I just

1035
00:49:32,159 --> 00:49:34,760
wanted to get your guys initial thoughts on the College

1036
00:49:34,800 --> 00:49:37,159
Uable PLAYFF. Look, we understand it's a flawed system, okay,

1037
00:49:37,199 --> 00:49:39,199
and they're going to tinker it again and whatever. That's

1038
00:49:39,199 --> 00:49:40,800
not what the purpose of this show is to give

1039
00:49:40,840 --> 00:49:43,079
the folks actual info. We got four bottom lines across

1040
00:49:43,360 --> 00:49:46,639
next Friday and Saurday, the four first round matchups to

1041
00:49:46,679 --> 00:49:49,280
bet on. I like, as probably both of you do,

1042
00:49:49,400 --> 00:49:51,880
to get out and speak to many people in this

1043
00:49:51,960 --> 00:49:53,960
fine country of ours. I have yet to meet a

1044
00:49:53,960 --> 00:49:57,719
single person who likes either group of five Team Troy

1045
00:49:57,920 --> 00:50:01,840
or James Madison tou Lane or James Massis, delf Troy

1046
00:50:01,840 --> 00:50:05,320
on the Brain Tulane or James Madison obviously both big

1047
00:50:05,400 --> 00:50:10,960
underdogs to All Miss and Oregon respectively. You've got Alabama

1048
00:50:11,000 --> 00:50:13,840
and Oregon and what is expected to be a Alabama

1049
00:50:13,840 --> 00:50:16,239
and Oklahoma. While I'm on fire today breaking these matchups

1050
00:50:16,280 --> 00:50:19,360
down Alabama and Oklahoma in regular season rematch, not a

1051
00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:24,360
lot of points expected there. What do you got, Ralph?

1052
00:50:24,360 --> 00:50:27,599
I'll go to you first, any initial thoughts, anything you

1053
00:50:27,639 --> 00:50:29,440
want to share with the people here. I know you

1054
00:50:29,480 --> 00:50:31,960
know you, I and Ross will be breaking these games

1055
00:50:32,000 --> 00:50:34,800
down in full on next week's show. But you know, hey,

1056
00:50:34,960 --> 00:50:36,639
the matchups are out. I didn't know if there was

1057
00:50:36,639 --> 00:50:39,400
anything you wanted to let the people know. Now get

1058
00:50:39,440 --> 00:50:39,960
them ready.

1059
00:50:40,599 --> 00:50:47,719
Speaker 2: I will say early Leans, Oklahoma, Oklahomabama first half under

1060
00:50:49,000 --> 00:50:53,480
uh I think Oregon team total against James Madison. James

1061
00:50:53,480 --> 00:50:57,199
Madison numbers are fantastic, but again they've played one of

1062
00:50:57,199 --> 00:51:00,760
the weakest schedules in college football. Totally differently that speed

1063
00:51:00,920 --> 00:51:04,679
speed kills, and I think they get that. A and

1064
00:51:04,840 --> 00:51:08,159
M in Miami went back and forth. Probably lean A

1065
00:51:08,280 --> 00:51:11,559
and M right now. And no real opinion on Mississippi

1066
00:51:11,599 --> 00:51:14,840
Too Lane. I you know, I just never give too

1067
00:51:14,920 --> 00:51:17,719
Lane enough credit. And I remember watching what four years

1068
00:51:17,760 --> 00:51:20,320
ago or five four years ago when they beat USC

1069
00:51:20,360 --> 00:51:22,960
in the in that bowl game, and they this They're

1070
00:51:23,039 --> 00:51:26,639
just a well coached, fundamentally sound team. So maybe Steve

1071
00:51:26,639 --> 00:51:27,800
will give you an opinion on that.

1072
00:51:28,239 --> 00:51:30,280
Speaker 1: You got a four percent. If I'm gonna check back

1073
00:51:30,280 --> 00:51:32,920
at GAMO, I'm ninety nine percent sure out of four

1074
00:51:32,960 --> 00:51:34,320
percent on two late in that game. Remember it was

1075
00:51:34,320 --> 00:51:36,920
an amazing comeback. I kind of like you. That was a

1076
00:51:37,039 --> 00:51:39,719
that was a wild finish. But Steve, you will not

1077
00:51:39,760 --> 00:51:41,800
be with us. Thank you again for joining us. Steve,

1078
00:51:41,840 --> 00:51:45,000
it's always great having you on the program. Any initial

1079
00:51:45,000 --> 00:51:46,719
thoughts you'd like to share. I know, of course again

1080
00:51:46,760 --> 00:51:49,760
you're gonna be doing videos for all four of these games,

1081
00:51:49,800 --> 00:51:51,480
but any initial thoughts you wanted to share.

1082
00:51:51,920 --> 00:51:54,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, click subscribe. Click that bell you'll get an instant

1083
00:51:54,280 --> 00:51:56,480
alert when these videos go up for next week's games.

1084
00:51:56,639 --> 00:52:00,000
My initial thoughts between the two big favorites you mentioned

1085
00:52:00,039 --> 00:52:04,360
to Oregon James Madison, Ole Miss Tulane. Obviously, the question

1086
00:52:04,400 --> 00:52:07,039
mark with Mississippi is their focus. No Lane Kiff and

1087
00:52:07,079 --> 00:52:09,440
half the staff gone. But I think the players still

1088
00:52:09,440 --> 00:52:11,079
want to play for a national title. They're going to

1089
00:52:11,159 --> 00:52:14,159
rally behind that, and I think Tulane could be the team.

1090
00:52:14,159 --> 00:52:17,599
It's a little bit less focused, And the big difference

1091
00:52:17,599 --> 00:52:19,480
in that game for me is the huge defensive edge

1092
00:52:19,480 --> 00:52:21,519
that Old Miss has. Solanine's a pretty good offensive team,

1093
00:52:21,519 --> 00:52:24,199
ole Miss is better, but ole Miss has a substantial

1094
00:52:24,239 --> 00:52:27,400
defensive edge, Whereas James Madison I do still rank as

1095
00:52:27,400 --> 00:52:29,440
a top thirty defense. I barely have Tulane in my

1096
00:52:29,480 --> 00:52:32,199
top seventies. So I think of those two games, if

1097
00:52:32,239 --> 00:52:33,760
you're going to lay the big number, I'd be more

1098
00:52:33,760 --> 00:52:36,960
comfortable doing it with ole Miss. The Texas and Miami

1099
00:52:36,960 --> 00:52:38,719
game is interesting to me. I do rate amm as

1100
00:52:38,760 --> 00:52:40,639
a stronger offense, but I've actually got Miami is the

1101
00:52:40,639 --> 00:52:43,280
better defensive team in that game. And we'll see if

1102
00:52:43,320 --> 00:52:45,639
this is like the NCAA basketball tournament, right, the team

1103
00:52:45,679 --> 00:52:48,480
that everyone thinks shouldn't get in always seems to go

1104
00:52:48,519 --> 00:52:50,280
on a run, whether it's one of those first four

1105
00:52:50,360 --> 00:52:53,239
teams or one of the last in the last doubt,

1106
00:52:53,320 --> 00:52:55,320
the committee normally gets it right. And I don't know

1107
00:52:55,320 --> 00:52:57,360
if this is the same as the basketball committee. It's

1108
00:52:57,360 --> 00:53:01,000
thirteen secret voters in a room that are non accountable.

1109
00:53:01,039 --> 00:53:02,800
So now a shock, Miami got in. But we'll see

1110
00:53:02,840 --> 00:53:04,199
if they make a run. And we often see that

1111
00:53:04,199 --> 00:53:05,280
in the basketball tournament.

1112
00:53:05,960 --> 00:53:07,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would agree, and we'll be talking about that

1113
00:53:07,719 --> 00:53:10,760
again next week. But I'm in line with you that Miami.

1114
00:53:10,800 --> 00:53:12,880
I think it's very interesting and you're gonna hear all

1115
00:53:13,440 --> 00:53:15,920
for a week. Oh should they belong? Should they even

1116
00:53:15,960 --> 00:53:19,159
be here? And we'll see, you know, Chrystal ball though

1117
00:53:19,159 --> 00:53:21,679
always a question mark. But again that's more for next week.

1118
00:53:22,599 --> 00:53:25,519
Speaker 2: Miami and James Madison. Miami should be in over James Madison.

1119
00:53:25,679 --> 00:53:28,960
You know they need to change the conference rule.

1120
00:53:29,400 --> 00:53:31,719
Speaker 1: Yeah they did. Look, the ACC screwed it up. Well

1121
00:53:31,880 --> 00:53:33,840
you want you want, I guess I could speak up.

1122
00:53:33,840 --> 00:53:35,800
The ACC screwed the whole thing up. If and I

1123
00:53:35,800 --> 00:53:37,360
think what we're going to see moving forward with the

1124
00:53:37,360 --> 00:53:40,440
college fotball Playoff is if there's not a clean head

1125
00:53:40,440 --> 00:53:43,000
to head tie break in these massive conferences, they're just

1126
00:53:43,039 --> 00:53:45,320
going to put the two top teams in by College

1127
00:53:45,320 --> 00:53:48,000
Football Playoff ranking. It's what they should do. And if

1128
00:53:48,000 --> 00:53:49,800
we had had that in the ACC, where it'd be

1129
00:53:49,840 --> 00:53:52,599
Miami versus Virginia, then the a CEC would have been

1130
00:53:52,639 --> 00:53:56,719
guaranteed in an automatic qualifier. Ordre Dame would have got

1131
00:53:56,719 --> 00:53:58,760
in and we'd only have one G five in and

1132
00:53:58,840 --> 00:54:01,159
no one would well, I'm sure we would find something there.

1133
00:54:01,159 --> 00:54:04,239
Speaker 2: Aready ready did a press release there they said they're

1134
00:54:04,239 --> 00:54:06,559
redoing them already, so they're they're working on them as

1135
00:54:06,599 --> 00:54:07,880
we speak already. That's how Yeah.

1136
00:54:07,880 --> 00:54:10,599
Speaker 1: And again they last year they were they didn't. They

1137
00:54:10,599 --> 00:54:12,159
weren't ready for the fact that the Big ten at

1138
00:54:12,199 --> 00:54:14,440
SEC were so much better than the Big twelve and ACC.

1139
00:54:14,920 --> 00:54:17,519
So the idea that the four conference champions got those

1140
00:54:17,559 --> 00:54:21,039
automatic buys that that was foolish. They got rid of

1141
00:54:21,039 --> 00:54:23,119
that after one year. They're going to fix this, So

1142
00:54:23,480 --> 00:54:23,960
there you have it.

1143
00:54:24,159 --> 00:54:26,360
Speaker 3: They do it on purpose, Brian, and we've already spent

1144
00:54:26,440 --> 00:54:28,400
five minutes talking about it. They do this on purpose

1145
00:54:28,440 --> 00:54:29,320
so that we talk about it.

1146
00:54:29,440 --> 00:54:32,679
Speaker 1: That's yeah, I agree the powers that be in college football.

1147
00:54:32,719 --> 00:54:36,480
I just think they love people arguing about this rather

1148
00:54:36,519 --> 00:54:36,920
than the game.

1149
00:54:37,159 --> 00:54:39,480
Speaker 3: Look, they had they had two teams for a decade,

1150
00:54:39,480 --> 00:54:41,039
then they went to four teams for a while, and

1151
00:54:41,039 --> 00:54:43,639
then they jumped to twelve overnight. Like that wasn't doable

1152
00:54:43,679 --> 00:54:45,840
to get to eight a couple of years earlier, and

1153
00:54:45,880 --> 00:54:47,920
like why aren't we at sixteen? And we're going to

1154
00:54:47,960 --> 00:54:50,719
be at sixteen here in the near future. So it's like, yeah,

1155
00:54:50,719 --> 00:54:53,079
I don't I'm very condescending with it. I don't feel

1156
00:54:53,079 --> 00:54:54,440
like they do it on purpose, but I do think

1157
00:54:54,480 --> 00:54:57,360
they get some intrinsic value from all the controversy. As

1158
00:54:57,360 --> 00:54:57,519
you know.

1159
00:54:57,719 --> 00:55:00,760
Speaker 2: My only bitch is their inconsistency from one week to

1160
00:55:00,760 --> 00:55:04,079
the next. I'd rather not even have a playoff show. Hell,

1161
00:55:04,199 --> 00:55:06,079
you just got to worry about playing and not worry

1162
00:55:06,079 --> 00:55:06,800
about looking at it.

1163
00:55:06,960 --> 00:55:07,159
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1164
00:55:07,159 --> 00:55:10,280
Speaker 3: I do like that, Ralph, no ranking until the final week, right, Yeah,

1165
00:55:10,400 --> 00:55:11,639
I like kind of where you're going with that.

1166
00:55:11,920 --> 00:55:14,239
Speaker 2: I agree, Yeah, screw that. That's the whole issue is

1167
00:55:14,239 --> 00:55:16,119
the committee saying one thing one week and the next

1168
00:55:16,119 --> 00:55:18,440
week changing it, you know, and then jumping a team

1169
00:55:18,519 --> 00:55:20,079
up or down. For no reason.

1170
00:55:20,559 --> 00:55:22,880
Speaker 3: Right, So, how does the exactly Miami and Notre Dame

1171
00:55:22,920 --> 00:55:25,199
don't play? From my understanding, I don't pay much attention

1172
00:55:25,239 --> 00:55:26,800
to it, but Notre Dame was ahead of them every week,

1173
00:55:26,880 --> 00:55:29,639
including that week in the rankings. Right, Like, so the

1174
00:55:29,719 --> 00:55:31,920
only only thing that like was somewhat connected by the

1175
00:55:31,960 --> 00:55:34,599
six degrees of Kevin Bacon was Duke beating UVA made

1176
00:55:34,599 --> 00:55:37,039
Miami stronger. I guess, I mean it doesn't make any

1177
00:55:37,079 --> 00:55:37,920
sense whatsoever.

1178
00:55:38,079 --> 00:55:40,719
Speaker 1: No, it didn't it. So again, the only college football

1179
00:55:40,719 --> 00:55:42,519
show you should make sure you're tuning into each and

1180
00:55:42,559 --> 00:55:47,800
every week is just right here live every one pm. What,

1181
00:55:48,320 --> 00:55:51,119
of course, check out all of our individual videos as well. Steve,

1182
00:55:51,519 --> 00:55:54,599
My goodness, what an undertaking that is. Keith Beryl previewing

1183
00:55:54,639 --> 00:55:58,039
every bowl game. Ralph, his trend's video is locked and loaded.

1184
00:55:58,079 --> 00:56:02,599
I'll have you covered with our I've this weekend. Dan,

1185
00:56:02,719 --> 00:56:06,079
let's throw those bets on the screen before we say

1186
00:56:06,119 --> 00:56:10,559
goodbye to find people. Steve Merrill, he likes Washington in

1187
00:56:10,679 --> 00:56:14,000
the l A Bowl and nine and a half betute. Now,

1188
00:56:14,000 --> 00:56:15,880
guys who looks like that numbers on the move against

1189
00:56:15,920 --> 00:56:18,599
Poise State. Ralph, He's looking at the Army and Navy.

1190
00:56:18,599 --> 00:56:21,559
That's also this Saturday, of course, uh first half under

1191
00:56:21,880 --> 00:56:27,000
nineteen and half and then we pass the weekend. Next Tuesday.

1192
00:56:27,039 --> 00:56:29,840
I like, O d U get three and a hook

1193
00:56:31,679 --> 00:56:34,039
in the pure bowls. So can we do it three

1194
00:56:34,079 --> 00:56:36,639
and oh for the third time in the next four weeks.

1195
00:56:36,760 --> 00:56:39,719
Speaker 2: We'll let you know, Brian, after Steve and I go

1196
00:56:39,840 --> 00:56:42,360
two and oh on Saturday, you've got to sweat it

1197
00:56:42,360 --> 00:56:43,000
out for three.

1198
00:56:43,360 --> 00:56:46,920
Speaker 1: I know, I know it's not like usual. I know

1199
00:56:46,960 --> 00:56:49,159
there's there's a lot of pressure if you have when

1200
00:56:49,199 --> 00:56:51,679
you do that. Oh, I know how that's gonna be

1201
00:56:51,719 --> 00:56:55,320
so all right. For Ralph Michaels, for Steve Merrill, I

1202
00:56:55,360 --> 00:56:58,639
am Brian Power. This has been the Blitz. We will

1203
00:56:58,639 --> 00:57:01,480
be back next week again talk looking in deeper detail

1204
00:57:01,559 --> 00:57:04,840
the college football playoff. Don't forget to get all of

1205
00:57:04,880 --> 00:57:10,000
our plays. Steve wtwuzz slash SM, Ralph WT buzz slash

1206
00:57:10,079 --> 00:57:14,079
rmme WT buzz slash BP. You can go back. It's

1207
00:57:14,079 --> 00:57:16,199
about the thirty minute market of this video. We told

1208
00:57:16,239 --> 00:57:19,840
you what we had cooking this weekend until next week,

1209
00:57:20,199 --> 00:57:22,159
let's cash the tickets.