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<v Speaker 2>Hey, welcome back to dot net rocks. This is episode

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<v Speaker 2>two thousand and seven. I'm Carl Franklin, that Richard Countbell.

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<v Speaker 2>We decided to do.

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<v Speaker 3>A midyear geek out because Richard, yeah, you've got this

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<v Speaker 3>subject so hot right now, I've been I wrote this

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<v Speaker 3>as a talk a few weeks back, and I did

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<v Speaker 3>it three times in like eight days because everybody wanted it,

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<v Speaker 3>so I figured it's probably good one to record.

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<v Speaker 2>You know.

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<v Speaker 4>I have a couple of geek outs now that I've

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<v Speaker 4>made talks that aren't actually podcasts yet.

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<v Speaker 2>That's really cool.

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<v Speaker 4>I've also got the undersea Infrastructure is a talk that

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<v Speaker 4>I've never made into a podcast, but we can, okay

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<v Speaker 4>one of these days.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, okay, all right, so but that's not this one. No,

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<v Speaker 2>this is space data centers. Yeh, space based So let's

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<v Speaker 2>talk about what happened in the year two thousand and seven.

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<v Speaker 4>All right, where do you want them again?

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<v Speaker 2>So well, in you know, world events, the Virginia Tech

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<v Speaker 2>massacre was horrible. Yeah, that was the deadliest school shooting

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<v Speaker 2>in US history at the time.

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<v Speaker 4>Yes, so far people did so far.

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<v Speaker 2>The emerging global financial crisis, it was going to start

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<v Speaker 2>the Great recession next year two thousand and eight.

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<v Speaker 4>Yep, this is when the guys in the big short

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<v Speaker 4>were starting to get into action realized that's what I

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<v Speaker 4>over leveraged everything was.

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<v Speaker 2>Yep, that's right. And if you weren't around back then,

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<v Speaker 2>then you're two to your child show.

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<v Speaker 4>All right.

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<v Speaker 2>President George W. Bush deployed over twenty thousand additional troops

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<v Speaker 2>to Iraq in the Great Iraq War Troops surge. The

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<v Speaker 2>surge is what he called it.

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<v Speaker 4>Right.

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<v Speaker 2>Benazir Bhutto was assassinated on December twenty seventh while company

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<v Speaker 2>while campaigning in Pakistan, which added to the political turmoil

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<v Speaker 2>and you know, drew world wide attention.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah. I was in Pakistan the year before. Yeah, and

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<v Speaker 4>when Musharoff was in charge. Mouf Chef was charged in too.

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<v Speaker 4>But they were trying to get to regular elections, which

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<v Speaker 4>they'd never done.

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<v Speaker 2>I thought you and Forte were crazy for going there,

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<v Speaker 2>But you were a great mission.

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<v Speaker 4>He had a great time. It was an educational mission.

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<v Speaker 4>That was a really good thing you did.

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<v Speaker 2>Climate change was on everybody's mind. In two thousand and seven,

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<v Speaker 2>there was an inter Governmental Panel on climate change and

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<v Speaker 2>al Gore shared the Nobel Peace Prize, reflecting growing concern

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<v Speaker 2>over global warming. Hamas took control of Gaza after clashes

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<v Speaker 2>with Fatah and.

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<v Speaker 4>That well, they won their They won their election and

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<v Speaker 4>then never had another one. Yeah. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>Chinese products safety was in crisis. Massive recalls of toys,

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<v Speaker 2>pet food, toothpaste, and other products raised global concerns about

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<v Speaker 2>manufacturing standards. I guess that got better. I don't know

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<v Speaker 2>has it.

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<v Speaker 4>It's not in the news anymore anyway, but yeah, one

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<v Speaker 4>would hope.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, right, Well, Walmart seems to be doing very nicely.

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<v Speaker 2>Nancy Pelosi became the first female Speaker of the House

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<v Speaker 2>in the United States, first woman to serve as speaker.

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<v Speaker 2>After Democrats regained control, Southern California burned to the ground again.

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<v Speaker 2>Massive wild for wildfires forced nearly a million people to evacuate,

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<v Speaker 2>and it became one of the largest evacuation efforts in

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<v Speaker 2>California history. Oil prices surge toward one hundred dollars per barrel. Ah,

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<v Speaker 2>that's nothing.

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<v Speaker 4>This way, you just wait.

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<v Speaker 2>So a couple other things we could just honorably mention

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<v Speaker 2>the Crandall Canyon mind collapse, the disappearance of Madeline McCann,

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<v Speaker 2>the beginning of the two thousand and eight US presidential

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<v Speaker 2>race featuring Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and John McCain.

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<v Speaker 4>And in the UK.

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<v Speaker 2>Record flug record flooding.

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<v Speaker 4>Not good.

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<v Speaker 2>No, so yeah, there you go.

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<v Speaker 4>It was.

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<v Speaker 2>It wasn't a good year.

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<v Speaker 4>It was tough year.

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<v Speaker 2>Tough year. But you know, I kind of only focused

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<v Speaker 2>on the negative things because those were the most newsworthy anyway.

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<v Speaker 2>But what do you got for space and tech?

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<v Speaker 4>So starting with space in February, the New Horizons spacecraft.

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<v Speaker 4>It is the one headed for Pluto. Yeah, does a

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<v Speaker 4>flyby of Jupiter to pick up some more speed. It

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<v Speaker 4>only launched in two thousand and six, so that was

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<v Speaker 4>a record time to get to Jupiter. They were booking

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<v Speaker 4>it all already. It was the fastest launch and the

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<v Speaker 4>first time ever we launched a spacecraft directly out of

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<v Speaker 4>Earth orbit like, it never ordered the Earth, It just

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<v Speaker 4>went up and kept going. And so yeah, it got

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<v Speaker 4>to Jupiter in record times, slung shot around and then

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<v Speaker 4>basically gets shut down into a dormant mode for seven years.

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<v Speaker 4>And twenty fourteen, they'll light it back up as it's

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<v Speaker 4>starting to get close to Pluto. Just a hint. It

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<v Speaker 4>got to Jupiter in a year, but it'll take another

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<v Speaker 4>seven years to get to Pluto. It's just a long,

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<v Speaker 4>a long way. I said it before. Those photos of

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<v Speaker 4>Pluto were just amazing. Yeah, unbelievable and unexpected. Right, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 4>nobody knew. Nobody knew what it was, what it looked like.

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<v Speaker 4>So it was really a great mission that it surprised everybody.

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<v Speaker 4>In March, the second flight of a SpaceX Falcon one.

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<v Speaker 4>This is at Omolek, which is a Quandullan Islands funded

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<v Speaker 4>by the United States Department of Defense. Well, let me

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<v Speaker 4>tell you how this thing went. So apparently they got

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<v Speaker 4>the first stage fuel mix wrong, so the engine wasn't

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<v Speaker 4>burning as efficiently as possible, and that meant they had

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<v Speaker 4>they were deeper in the atmosphere at second stage separation.

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<v Speaker 4>That additional drag plus the fuel slash means that the

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<v Speaker 4>first stage actually bumps into the second stage, possibly causing

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<v Speaker 4>it to destabilize a bit and causing more slosh in

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<v Speaker 4>the second stage. So it does fire up, but shuts

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<v Speaker 4>down early, doesn't reach ARP. But the good news is

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<v Speaker 4>since the previous mission had failed as well, this time

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<v Speaker 4>it had no real payload, just a weight essentially, and

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<v Speaker 4>Elon called it a ninety five percent success. Okay, it's

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<v Speaker 4>also the last time they fly on what they call

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<v Speaker 4>a Merlin one in a engine, which is the oblatively cooltile.

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<v Speaker 4>They'll move the next flight, they'll use the version they

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<v Speaker 4>call the one C, which is regeneratively cool. The modern

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<v Speaker 4>engine that is not on the Falcon nine will be

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<v Speaker 4>the one E. So that's their second flight, both of

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<v Speaker 4>both of which have failed. But just you know that's reasonable.

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<v Speaker 4>In June the return of more Shuttle missions. So' only

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<v Speaker 4>gonna do three Shuttle missions in two thousand and seven

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<v Speaker 4>because of the new rules coming out of the Columbia disaster.

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<v Speaker 4>So the June Atlantis mission brings in the stree and

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<v Speaker 4>S four trust of the International Space Station. They're all

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<v Speaker 4>space station flights now, and this is the second set

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<v Speaker 4>of This is the third set of solar panels and

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<v Speaker 4>the S three S four. So they remember when they

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<v Speaker 4>first put together the station, they had one set that

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<v Speaker 4>was kind of in the middle, up standing up high

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<v Speaker 4>on the Z trust. Yeah, and then they then they

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<v Speaker 4>started putting in the wings and so now the port

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<v Speaker 4>wing and the starbough wing are in. This was the

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<v Speaker 4>starboard wing. Then in August, just a couple months later,

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<v Speaker 4>they fly the S five trush, which is a connector

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<v Speaker 4>to put on a second set. Not the most important

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<v Speaker 4>thing for the space station. But what was interesting about

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<v Speaker 4>the Endeavor mission in August was Barbara Morgan. Barbara Morgan,

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<v Speaker 4>remember this is two thousand and seven, was the backup

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<v Speaker 4>to teach your Krista mccauliffe. Oh yeah, who lost their

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<v Speaker 4>life in the Challenger disaster in nineteen eighty six and

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<v Speaker 4>solo literally twenty one years later, her backup gets to

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<v Speaker 4>fly as the first educator astronaut. Wow, I remember she

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<v Speaker 4>stayed in all that time and got to actually do

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<v Speaker 4>one of the first last Space Lab missions and have

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<v Speaker 4>that experience. Awesome. Also, in August, Voyager two cross the

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<v Speaker 4>terminator shock, just like Voyager one done back in two

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<v Speaker 4>thousand and fourth, is the point at which the solar

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<v Speaker 4>radiation from the Sun is being pushed back by the

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<v Speaker 4>interstellar waves and so our furthest objects out Forture one two.

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<v Speaker 4>It's September. The Dawn spacecraft one of the first multi

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<v Speaker 4>destinations spacecraft editor and it's going to the Internet. It's

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<v Speaker 4>going to the asteroid belt. It's going to visit vest

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<v Speaker 4>the asteroid Vesta in twenty eleven, one of the largest,

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<v Speaker 4>probably a dwarf planet. And then in twenty twelve it'll

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<v Speaker 4>go to Serre's one of the very very largest, the largest,

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<v Speaker 4>and it will see it will eventually run out of

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<v Speaker 4>fuel in twenty eighteen and they will leave it orbiting Serres.

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<v Speaker 4>So there's some hope that sometime in the future we'll

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<v Speaker 4>get back there and find the old down spacecraft still

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<v Speaker 4>pinn spin around it there. In October lasts of the

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<v Speaker 4>Shuttle flights for the year. This is Discovery flying the

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<v Speaker 4>Harmony module, also known as No. To two, and so

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<v Speaker 4>that's a big connector module, smaller than the habitat or

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<v Speaker 4>anything like or the Discovery the big laboratory, but it

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<v Speaker 4>is a big connector module. So that's No. Two. This

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<v Speaker 4>is also when they take those central solar panels, the

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<v Speaker 4>P six panels that had been folded up since the

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<v Speaker 4>wings had come in and actually moved out to the

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<v Speaker 4>port end trust. Also in October the first commercial flight

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<v Speaker 4>of the airbus A three eighty, a Singapore Airlines flight

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<v Speaker 4>from Singapore to Sydney, and last of the space flights.

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<v Speaker 4>In November, China's Chang E one orbiter goes to the Moon.

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<v Speaker 4>It launched in October. It makes to the Moon in November.

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<v Speaker 4>It will spend a couple of years orbiting the Moon

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<v Speaker 4>doing a detailed map of the lunar surface. They will

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<v Speaker 4>deliberately impact it into the Moon in two thousand and nine,

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<v Speaker 4>and then Changy two will launch in two twenty ten,

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<v Speaker 4>beginning China's march towards the Moon, which still continues to

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<v Speaker 4>this day. All right, on the computing side, clearly, the

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<v Speaker 4>most important thing in computing to happen this year was

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<v Speaker 4>the first episode of run Ass Radio in April. Yes,

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<v Speaker 4>that's not self serving at all, Oh my goodness, no, no,

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<v Speaker 4>I think probably a little more cloud than that would

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<v Speaker 4>be the release of say, the iPhone in June two

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<v Speaker 4>thousand and seven, a kind of a big deal. It's

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<v Speaker 4>useful to note that at that time Steve job says,

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<v Speaker 4>if you're going to program for the iPhone, you're going

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<v Speaker 4>to do it in Safari, because he had already seen

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<v Speaker 4>the writing on the wall for HTML five well before

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<v Speaker 4>it was real, and didn't believe any that he was

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<v Speaker 4>not going to give anybody direct access to the phone whatsoever.

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<v Speaker 4>He's of course wrong, and by July, within a month

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<v Speaker 4>the phone is jail broken and people are starting to

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<v Speaker 4>put software on, and he's about to lose control of

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<v Speaker 4>his phone. Also in phone News, by November, Google will

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<v Speaker 4>release Android, so the smartphone wave is underway, big way.

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<v Speaker 4>On the Microsoft side. In January, Microsoft Vista is released

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<v Speaker 4>to the public. There was a release in November of

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<v Speaker 4>two thousand and six that was the enterprise only edition,

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<v Speaker 4>but the other editions release in January. At this point,

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<v Speaker 4>people have already been criticizing Vista so heavily that sales

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<v Speaker 4>are appallingly bad.

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<v Speaker 2>Yep, and the jokes never end.

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<v Speaker 4>I never end. Yeah. In September, the first version of

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<v Speaker 4>silver Light. Remembering that the first version of the silver

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<v Speaker 4>Light was really for Netflix, it was the media player

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<v Speaker 4>side for Netflix, switching from the little red envelopes over

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<v Speaker 4>to being online, and so it runs on the Mac

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<v Speaker 4>and the PC both the Mac, Intel and power PC

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<v Speaker 4>platforms works in Safari and Firefox as well as ie

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<v Speaker 4>and all the codings done in JavaScript. Dot Net has

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<v Speaker 4>not yet come to that land, although in November we

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<v Speaker 4>get Studio two thousand and eight which has the dot

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<v Speaker 4>Net framework three point five with link and stuff.

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<v Speaker 2>Before we get away from silver Light, I just remember,

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<v Speaker 2>I think Rory Blythe said it was a wrapper around

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<v Speaker 2>a four h four error because it really didn't do anything.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, it was very challenging to make all that media

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<v Speaker 4>stuff work.

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<v Speaker 2>And he's called it a glorified animated gift player or

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<v Speaker 2>something like that.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, it was if we could actually play. It was

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<v Speaker 4>multi resolution video player, right, Yeah, you'd actually assess the

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<v Speaker 4>bandwidth and step down to lower resolution if you could. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 4>that was or step up.

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<v Speaker 2>It was going faster in and of itself, I mean

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<v Speaker 2>the way all streaming is done today. I mean that

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<v Speaker 2>was pretty ahead of its time.

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<v Speaker 4>In October, after the silver Light release, but before Studio

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<v Speaker 4>two thousand and eight, Scott Guthrie brings his as we

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<v Speaker 4>named it at the time, his Ninja Army YEP, which

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<v Speaker 4>was Hanselman and Hack and Connor and so forth to

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<v Speaker 4>the very first Alt dot Net conference in Austin, where

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<v Speaker 4>they demoed first time in public MVC. Now, NBC had

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<v Speaker 4>been in development for some time. It was actually internally

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<v Speaker 4>like the second or third version that they played with.

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<v Speaker 4>Gothrie decided, because he was going to All dot Net,

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<v Speaker 4>who was very much about more testable web development, better

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<v Speaker 4>quality of web development, all that sort of thing, he

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<v Speaker 4>wanted to show this off. So though they apparently they

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<v Speaker 4>did write the demo on the plane wow going down

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<v Speaker 4>there to show this thing off, he did the keynote,

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<v Speaker 4>and I do remember that story blew them away. I

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<v Speaker 4>would argue the most famous thing from that entire conference

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<v Speaker 4>is a photograph of a terribly young Scott Hanselman holding

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<v Speaker 4>up a large post it note from the open Spaces

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<v Speaker 4>section that says, why so mean? Yeah? I remember that because,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, the all dot net folks, at least some

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<v Speaker 4>of them, were very vociferous about this idea that open

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<v Speaker 4>source should be an important part of Microsoft's plant. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 4>I know, all point out NBC was open source. It

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<v Speaker 4>was released via Coplex, and they.

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<v Speaker 2>Didn't really like the whole you know, visual studio developer stereotype.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, culture of Microsoft developer at the time was very

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<v Speaker 4>much if it doesn't come from Microsoft, I'm not interested

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<v Speaker 4>in it, and that was a right, and it does.

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<v Speaker 2>If it doesn't have a guy, then then it's garbage.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I'm not going to bother with it. Right, I

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<v Speaker 4>don't understand it. All dot net Willy at that time

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<v Speaker 4>I called them if you recall the n Hybrid eight mafia, right,

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<v Speaker 4>and they decided they should better call themselves something else.

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<v Speaker 4>They call themselves all dot Net and the all dot

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<v Speaker 4>Net website will go up in December. It only last

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<v Speaker 4>a few years.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, but you know they made huge contributions to the

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<v Speaker 2>dot net ecosystem.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, we had that conversation, you know, not that long

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<v Speaker 4>ago about the idea that what they were talking about

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<v Speaker 4>they won, like open source became a corporal part of

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<v Speaker 4>Microsoft's work and the Microsoft community just took a while. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 4>A couple more things to wrap up. One was this

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<v Speaker 4>is the year that Nvidia releases their Computer Unified Device

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<v Speaker 4>Architecture or KUDA gpuplementation, which is still important today. And

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<v Speaker 4>Attache released their first terabyte hardra Wow. Yeah, terribite, Oh terabyte,

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<v Speaker 4>I know, and that's what I got. You'll never need

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<v Speaker 4>that much Okay, that's crazy.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, before we let Richard loose on you, let's talk

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<v Speaker 2>about better know framework.

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<v Speaker 4>Awesome. All right, man, what do you got?

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<v Speaker 2>All right? For all you Tesla people out there, and

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<v Speaker 2>also who might happen to like the Elixir language, which

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<v Speaker 2>we are great fans of, there's Tesla mat, a powerful

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<v Speaker 2>self hosted data logger for your Tesla. So as I said,

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<v Speaker 2>it's written in Elixir, uses postgrass for a data store,

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<v Speaker 2>visualization and data analysis with grafana. Never heard of that,

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<v Speaker 2>but I'm sure it's graphics visualization open source.

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<v Speaker 4>It's a visualization library like power be I. That kind

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<v Speaker 4>of thing is much older.

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<v Speaker 2>And vehicle data is published to a local MQTT broker. Nice,

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<v Speaker 2>and you know it's trending right now. They have some

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<v Speaker 2>sample screenshots of bundled dashboards like battery health, charge level, charges,

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<v Speaker 2>charge details, charging stats, there's a lot of charging.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, you know when you have an electric car, when

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<v Speaker 4>you have a Tesla, Yeah, you do care about your charging,

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<v Speaker 4>that's for sure.

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<v Speaker 2>So database information, drive stats, drives, distance, energy consumed and

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<v Speaker 2>all that drive details, efficiency locations, mileage overview, projected range states.

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<v Speaker 2>See when your car was online or asleep statistic statistics, timeline,

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<v Speaker 2>trip updates, Vampire drain, and visited a lifetime driving map.

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<v Speaker 2>So if you're interested in the stats of your.

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<v Speaker 4>Tesla, there are online services for this, but you have

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<v Speaker 4>to send them your data effectively. So this is a

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<v Speaker 4>way to do it totally yourself. That's cool.

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<v Speaker 2>Self host it. Yeah, it's pretty cool. I do not

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<v Speaker 2>have a Tesla, but I know a lot of people

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<v Speaker 2>that do, and they would probably be into this because

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<v Speaker 2>they're all geeks like me.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, and owning yourself, so you're not saying anywhere else

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<v Speaker 4>is compelling.

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<v Speaker 2>Before we get started, and because we're doing space, this

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<v Speaker 2>came up in my feed and I don't know if

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<v Speaker 2>you know anything about it, but Voyager one is sending

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<v Speaker 2>back impossible data from interstellar space. Do you know anything

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<v Speaker 2>about this story?

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<v Speaker 4>Okay?

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<v Speaker 2>Well I posted a link to it from the NASA

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<v Speaker 2>James Webb Space Telescope Facebook page and basically, I think

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<v Speaker 2>what says is that it made some new discoveries and

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<v Speaker 2>like they can't believe they're getting data on this thing.

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<v Speaker 4>So well, it's a long way away. Last is far

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<v Speaker 4>longer than expected, but you know the and it's beyond

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<v Speaker 4>the reach of the Soul system for the first time ever.

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<v Speaker 4>So that's an interesting possibility.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so forty five years.

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<v Speaker 4>Anyway, it might just might be also clickbait too, who knows.

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<v Speaker 2>It could be still traveling beyond our solar system. However,

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<v Speaker 2>the veteran spacecraft is suddenly sending back unusual data that

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<v Speaker 2>is baffling its engineers.

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<v Speaker 4>So anyway, I might also just be breaking down. It's

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<v Speaker 4>really old.

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<v Speaker 2>Could be, yeah, not all that impossible. So that's what

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<v Speaker 2>I got. Who's talking to us today, Richard.

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<v Speaker 4>Grabby comment of show nineteen eighty three, that's from the

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<v Speaker 4>beginning of twenty twenty six. That's our energy geek out, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 4>twenty twenty five, and I always get some nice comments

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<v Speaker 4>on that. Somebody brought it up to me to see

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<v Speaker 4>the data conference that he really counted on those shows,

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<v Speaker 4>so to get him up to speed on what's been

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<v Speaker 4>going on. This comment comes from Wade Brooks. This is

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<v Speaker 4>high Richard Carl. I'm a long time listener in a

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<v Speaker 4>happily retired software and database engineer. I recently read a

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<v Speaker 4>sci fi story called Backyard Starship, where the satellite's orbitan

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<v Speaker 4>never start to fall due to a cascade of collisions

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<v Speaker 4>A big object it was hit. That's hundreds of smaller

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<v Speaker 4>pieces into other satellites. How likely would a cascade effect

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<v Speaker 4>like this be in our current age? And by the way,

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<v Speaker 4>this story also talks about a specialized fleet of space

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<v Speaker 4>ships cleaning up orbital satellites. I thought it was terribly

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<v Speaker 4>appropriate comment for the show we're about to record. Indeed,

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<v Speaker 4>so Wade, I will answer this in line as we

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<v Speaker 4>get deeper into the conversation about building data centers in space.

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<v Speaker 4>Because the thing you're thinking about is called Kessler syndrome,

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<v Speaker 4>and I ended up in order to make this whole

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<v Speaker 4>talk work, I had to study it extensively from a

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<v Speaker 4>statistical and engineering point of view. So I will answer it.

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<v Speaker 4>So thank you so much for your comment, and a

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<v Speaker 4>copy of music co Buy is on its way to you.

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<v Speaker 4>And if you'd like copy of music Gobe, I write

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<v Speaker 4>a comment on the website at dot NetRocks dot com

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<v Speaker 4>or on the facebooks we publish every show there, and

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<v Speaker 4>if you comment there and I read it on the show,

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<v Speaker 4>we'll send you copy of music go by.

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<v Speaker 2>And music to code By, of course, is a library

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<v Speaker 2>of music that I wrote for people to write code

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<v Speaker 2>to to keep you in a state of flow. The

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<v Speaker 2>music is scientifically created to keep you in that state,

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<v Speaker 2>not to you, not too distracting, and of course not

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<v Speaker 2>too boring. So go to music toocodey dot net if

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<v Speaker 2>you want to get that in MP three wave or

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<v Speaker 2>flack format twenty two tracks. Right, Okay, the floor is yours,

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<v Speaker 2>mister Campbell.

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<v Speaker 4>All right, listen, there's been as of late a lot

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<v Speaker 4>of hubbub around building data centers of space. This is

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<v Speaker 4>basically what the SPACEXIPO wrapped itself around, and we'll talk

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<v Speaker 4>about that a little later on. I want you to

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<v Speaker 4>know we've talked about putting stuff into space like this

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<v Speaker 4>for quite a long time. Although it really this current

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<v Speaker 4>wave really starts at the end of twenty twenty five,

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<v Speaker 4>which makes sense because we are coming to the edge

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<v Speaker 4>of the AI hype cycle and people are starting to

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<v Speaker 4>see that we can't scale as far as we need to.

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<v Speaker 4>The lashback get data centers is real, and so meeting

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<v Speaker 4>an alternative is an important part of that equation, and

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<v Speaker 4>this data centers in space is an effective alternative. Its

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<v Speaker 4>question is doesn't make any sense, and I was struggling

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<v Speaker 4>to figure this out, so I just ended up running

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<v Speaker 4>all of the numbers myself and referenced a lot of material.

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<v Speaker 4>And while I was putting this together, SpaceX was alfterually

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<v Speaker 4>publishing stuff that seemed to line up pretty close. I

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<v Speaker 4>would point out there is already a GPU in space.

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<v Speaker 4>So there's a startup, a y combinator startup called star

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<v Speaker 4>Cloud that was on the Bandwagon four Falcon nine flight.

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<v Speaker 4>This is in November of twenty twenty five, and so

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<v Speaker 4>they had put up a microsatellite. It was about there

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<v Speaker 4>was eighteen microsats on this thing. That's why they call

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<v Speaker 4>it Bandwagon, right, It's this big, massive launch of microsatellites.

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<v Speaker 4>And on board the star Cloud satellite was an H

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<v Speaker 4>one hundred GPU. They were able to load a copy

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<v Speaker 4>of NANOGPT on it and have a couple of conversations

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<v Speaker 4>with it. This, of course, is a microsat or a NanoSat.

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<v Speaker 4>It won't last very long. They typically don't last longer

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<v Speaker 4>than a year before there.

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<v Speaker 2>What is this particular GPU and how powerful is it

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<v Speaker 2>compared to what I have on my desktop?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, NH one hundred is an Nvidia GPU. It's one.

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<v Speaker 4>It's not particularly like I said, it can run a

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<v Speaker 4>nano GPT, it's small. This is nothing commercial, but it

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<v Speaker 4>was in some ways, it's kind of a stunt to

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<v Speaker 4>show that it's even possible. Admittedly that's GPUs still got

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<v Speaker 4>a lot of compared to traditional space computing, which is

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<v Speaker 4>typically radiation hard, and this thing's much higher performance than that,

424
00:22:28.319 --> 00:22:31.039
<v Speaker 4>but not particularly radiation hard. And like I said, it

425
00:22:31.079 --> 00:22:33.200
<v Speaker 4>only last a few months. They one of their reasons

426
00:22:33.200 --> 00:22:35.440
<v Speaker 4>to do this was to profile the radiation and environment

427
00:22:35.440 --> 00:22:38.000
<v Speaker 4>in lower th orbit. So it'll be interesting to see

428
00:22:38.039 --> 00:22:40.000
<v Speaker 4>what they get back from that. I mean, this thing's

429
00:22:40.000 --> 00:22:42.920
<v Speaker 4>still flying as of recording, but it won't last too

430
00:22:42.960 --> 00:22:45.519
<v Speaker 4>much longer, so they want to see how it survives. Yeah,

431
00:22:45.599 --> 00:22:48.519
<v Speaker 4>and star Cloud's gone on to say that they want

432
00:22:48.559 --> 00:22:51.119
<v Speaker 4>to put up eighty eight thousand satellites as already data centers.

433
00:22:51.160 --> 00:22:51.240
<v Speaker 2>Now.

434
00:22:51.240 --> 00:22:53.559
<v Speaker 4>They're a y Combinator startup, and little startups like that

435
00:22:53.599 --> 00:22:55.720
<v Speaker 4>say crazy things all the time, So that's fine.

436
00:22:56.119 --> 00:22:59.559
<v Speaker 2>So when you said data centers in space, I was thinking,

437
00:23:00.079 --> 00:23:03.119
<v Speaker 2>you know, on the moon, No they or something like that.

438
00:23:03.160 --> 00:23:06.279
<v Speaker 2>But you're really talking about satellites, right, Yeah.

439
00:23:06.079 --> 00:23:08.799
<v Speaker 4>You're talking in orbit. Star Clouds also put out a

440
00:23:08.799 --> 00:23:12.160
<v Speaker 4>set of videos, and one of the videos they show

441
00:23:12.319 --> 00:23:19.240
<v Speaker 4>this a five gigawatt data center in space. Now, that's

442
00:23:19.279 --> 00:23:22.720
<v Speaker 4>a Remember that even in orbit around the Earth, even

443
00:23:22.799 --> 00:23:26.559
<v Speaker 4>up in geostationary orbit, there's about thirteen hundred watts of

444
00:23:26.640 --> 00:23:30.559
<v Speaker 4>solar power available per square meter, and our best solar

445
00:23:30.599 --> 00:23:33.519
<v Speaker 4>panels can collect about thirty five percent of that the

446
00:23:33.559 --> 00:23:36.839
<v Speaker 4>trijunction once the expensive ones you'd use on satellites. So

447
00:23:36.839 --> 00:23:39.400
<v Speaker 4>in order to collect five gigawatts of power, you need

448
00:23:39.440 --> 00:23:45.400
<v Speaker 4>a solar array roughly four kilometers square. That's really big.

449
00:23:47.680 --> 00:23:51.839
<v Speaker 2>And yeah, it's it's it's big. And I think that

450
00:23:51.920 --> 00:23:54.319
<v Speaker 2>really only poses Am I wrong that it really only

451
00:23:54.359 --> 00:23:56.759
<v Speaker 2>poses a challenge to get it up there because it

452
00:23:56.839 --> 00:23:59.839
<v Speaker 2>can be folded and unfolded, right, Yeah, And.

453
00:24:00.240 --> 00:24:03.000
<v Speaker 4>Presumably with stuff like Starship, reducing the prices gets a

454
00:24:03.000 --> 00:24:05.480
<v Speaker 4>bit more practical. And if you watch this star Cloud video,

455
00:24:05.559 --> 00:24:09.400
<v Speaker 4>they show some kind of shuttle vehicle bringing up modules

456
00:24:09.440 --> 00:24:12.079
<v Speaker 4>of compute that sit in the middle of this titanically

457
00:24:12.200 --> 00:24:16.559
<v Speaker 4>huge array. Wow. Yeah, it would be really hard to

458
00:24:16.559 --> 00:24:18.839
<v Speaker 4>build this thing. I think the gravitational stresses would be

459
00:24:18.880 --> 00:24:23.680
<v Speaker 4>really interesting. We'll get into building mega satellites later. It's

460
00:24:23.759 --> 00:24:26.519
<v Speaker 4>probably not the way to go about this is certainly

461
00:24:26.519 --> 00:24:30.720
<v Speaker 4>not what SpaceX is proposing. The orbit matters a lot

462
00:24:31.119 --> 00:24:33.960
<v Speaker 4>and so to build something large like that, if we're

463
00:24:33.960 --> 00:24:35.640
<v Speaker 4>ever going to do anything like that, you'd probably do

464
00:24:35.680 --> 00:24:40.759
<v Speaker 4>geostationary orbit and geostation orbits about thirty six thousand kilometers up.

465
00:24:41.160 --> 00:24:44.319
<v Speaker 4>And what makes that orbit special is that the orbital

466
00:24:44.400 --> 00:24:47.200
<v Speaker 4>velocity at that altitude is the same as the rate

467
00:24:47.279 --> 00:24:50.119
<v Speaker 4>of the rotation of the Earth, and so the illusion

468
00:24:50.160 --> 00:24:52.559
<v Speaker 4>then is that the satellite is hovering over a point

469
00:24:52.559 --> 00:24:55.759
<v Speaker 4>in the land. Right. Sure. Now, we put satellites up

470
00:24:55.759 --> 00:24:59.279
<v Speaker 4>there routinely, typically, whether satellites broadcast and so forth, because

471
00:24:59.279 --> 00:25:02.880
<v Speaker 4>at that distance the Earth is quite small, and the

472
00:25:02.960 --> 00:25:05.880
<v Speaker 4>solar power runs all the time. There's no nighttime when

473
00:25:05.880 --> 00:25:09.079
<v Speaker 4>you're that high up, and you can use three satellites

474
00:25:09.079 --> 00:25:12.079
<v Speaker 4>at one hundred and twenty degrees evenly around that orbit

475
00:25:12.200 --> 00:25:13.880
<v Speaker 4>to cover the whole Earth. So it's a great place

476
00:25:13.880 --> 00:25:17.440
<v Speaker 4>where weather satellites are broadcast. The downsize is your thirty

477
00:25:17.480 --> 00:25:20.440
<v Speaker 4>six thousand kilometers away, and so the ping times like

478
00:25:20.519 --> 00:25:22.880
<v Speaker 4>six hundred milliseconds, which and so.

479
00:25:23.119 --> 00:25:26.319
<v Speaker 2>You know, that's that's a lot for us earthbound people

480
00:25:26.400 --> 00:25:29.759
<v Speaker 2>who are used to twenty millisecond ping times. But but

481
00:25:29.920 --> 00:25:31.359
<v Speaker 2>you know, it went to space.

482
00:25:31.400 --> 00:25:33.799
<v Speaker 4>Depends on the workload. Yeah, if you're just going to

483
00:25:33.920 --> 00:25:37.039
<v Speaker 4>upload stuff and you don't care when it comes back down.

484
00:25:37.200 --> 00:25:39.920
<v Speaker 4>As long as you tune the round trips properly, like,

485
00:25:39.920 --> 00:25:42.599
<v Speaker 4>you can make that work. But you don't do conversations

486
00:25:42.599 --> 00:25:45.400
<v Speaker 4>that way. That's painful. You certainly don't do iterating back

487
00:25:45.440 --> 00:25:50.000
<v Speaker 4>and forth. It's not appropriate. Then there's an area we

488
00:25:50.119 --> 00:25:52.680
<v Speaker 4>call the media multitude satellite, so it's sort of two

489
00:25:52.720 --> 00:25:56.160
<v Speaker 4>thousand up to thirty six thousand kilometers. Now your latency's

490
00:25:56.160 --> 00:26:00.119
<v Speaker 4>anywhere gonna be built between fifty and five hundred milliseconds,

491
00:26:00.400 --> 00:26:05.559
<v Speaker 4>that's normal. The area where you put GPS satellites, glonde,

492
00:26:05.599 --> 00:26:08.519
<v Speaker 4>neass cloud AO, those kinds of things. So satellite are

493
00:26:08.599 --> 00:26:12.200
<v Speaker 4>rays again that are transmitting purely one way. Like GPS

494
00:26:12.240 --> 00:26:15.759
<v Speaker 4>satellites are just constantly transmitting a signal of who they

495
00:26:15.799 --> 00:26:18.559
<v Speaker 4>are and what time it is, and you as long

496
00:26:18.599 --> 00:26:20.799
<v Speaker 4>as your receiver can see four of them, you can

497
00:26:20.799 --> 00:26:22.759
<v Speaker 4>figure out exactly where you are, how fast you're going

498
00:26:22.799 --> 00:26:24.960
<v Speaker 4>out Zude. All that KOD stuff that's NEO is great

499
00:26:25.000 --> 00:26:29.000
<v Speaker 4>for that. If you care about latency, you want to

500
00:26:29.000 --> 00:26:31.640
<v Speaker 4>be in low Earth orbit, right, So it's one hundred

501
00:26:31.640 --> 00:26:34.440
<v Speaker 4>and sixty to maybe one thousand kilometers up. So your

502
00:26:34.519 --> 00:26:38.000
<v Speaker 4>latency is going to somewhere between twenty and forty milliseconds.

503
00:26:38.079 --> 00:26:42.200
<v Speaker 4>And this is the realm of starlink okay, and other

504
00:26:43.000 --> 00:26:46.160
<v Speaker 4>communication satellites, those kinds of things where latency matters, and

505
00:26:46.200 --> 00:26:48.839
<v Speaker 4>it's a more crowded space without a doubt. It also

506
00:26:49.039 --> 00:26:51.200
<v Speaker 4>is close enough when you're down to one hundred and sixty,

507
00:26:51.240 --> 00:26:53.279
<v Speaker 4>two hundred and three hundred, even four hundred klometers enough,

508
00:26:53.799 --> 00:26:56.559
<v Speaker 4>it's not like the atmosphere just ends. It just gets

509
00:26:56.599 --> 00:27:00.759
<v Speaker 4>more and more tenuous. And so what really finds Leo

510
00:27:01.200 --> 00:27:04.839
<v Speaker 4>is are you still having your satellite slowed down by

511
00:27:04.880 --> 00:27:08.400
<v Speaker 4>the atmosphere once you get higher than that. It doesn't happen.

512
00:27:08.440 --> 00:27:11.200
<v Speaker 4>For the most part. Your orbits are pretty stable. Yeah,

513
00:27:11.240 --> 00:27:14.720
<v Speaker 4>And it's not like the atmosphere is static either. It

514
00:27:14.960 --> 00:27:18.359
<v Speaker 4>expands and shrinks depending on the amount of solar radiation

515
00:27:18.440 --> 00:27:20.920
<v Speaker 4>it's hitting. So we happen at this moment to be

516
00:27:21.119 --> 00:27:24.160
<v Speaker 4>a solar maximum where our star is particularly active and

517
00:27:24.279 --> 00:27:27.400
<v Speaker 4>kicking off large corolla mass injections. And that that's why

518
00:27:27.440 --> 00:27:29.960
<v Speaker 4>we get such awesome auroras right now. Yes, you know,

519
00:27:30.480 --> 00:27:33.440
<v Speaker 4>usually and when the stunt, when the sun is calmer,

520
00:27:33.839 --> 00:27:36.119
<v Speaker 4>you'd only see auroras up in the Arctic or in

521
00:27:36.160 --> 00:27:39.000
<v Speaker 4>the Antarctic. But right now, because it's so active, it's

522
00:27:39.039 --> 00:27:41.920
<v Speaker 4>throwing so much energy at the Earth that we get

523
00:27:41.920 --> 00:27:44.440
<v Speaker 4>these awesome auroras all the way down, you know, into

524
00:27:44.480 --> 00:27:49.160
<v Speaker 4>the US. And when that happens, the atmosphere actually expands,

525
00:27:49.200 --> 00:27:49.960
<v Speaker 4>it gets bigger.

526
00:27:50.039 --> 00:27:53.079
<v Speaker 2>I've had opportunities to see the aurora because it's been

527
00:27:53.400 --> 00:27:56.480
<v Speaker 2>visible in Connecticut, and every time it's either too cloudy

528
00:27:56.920 --> 00:27:58.359
<v Speaker 2>or it happens in the mill of the night when

529
00:27:58.400 --> 00:28:01.799
<v Speaker 2>I'm in bed. But I was tired one night. I

530
00:28:01.839 --> 00:28:04.680
<v Speaker 2>went to bed at like ten o'clock and I see

531
00:28:04.720 --> 00:28:08.559
<v Speaker 2>all these posts from people in New London, like with

532
00:28:08.799 --> 00:28:12.519
<v Speaker 2>city lights and stuff, with these huge auroras, and I'm like, dang,

533
00:28:12.599 --> 00:28:15.079
<v Speaker 2>I gosh, should have just gone down there and checked

534
00:28:15.079 --> 00:28:15.400
<v Speaker 2>it out.

535
00:28:15.480 --> 00:28:18.319
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, O kidding, but yeah, I'm sure they're gonna. As

536
00:28:18.319 --> 00:28:22.920
<v Speaker 5>you're saying, continue, well, yeah, eventually the solar activity subsides again.

537
00:28:23.000 --> 00:28:25.400
<v Speaker 5>It's in a cycle roughly eleven years or so, so

538
00:28:25.519 --> 00:28:29.960
<v Speaker 5>it depends. The challenge is this is why we have

539
00:28:30.079 --> 00:28:35.920
<v Speaker 5>problems with lowerth orbits, because so when the atmosphere expands

540
00:28:36.079 --> 00:28:39.279
<v Speaker 5>like this, it increases the drag on satellites, and so

541
00:28:39.319 --> 00:28:43.119
<v Speaker 5>satellite orbits shift unreliably. This is how we ended up

542
00:28:43.160 --> 00:28:48.000
<v Speaker 5>losing Skylab. The plan with Skylab all along was to

543
00:28:48.039 --> 00:28:50.519
<v Speaker 5>get the Space Shuttle up there to rescue it. Only

544
00:28:50.599 --> 00:28:53.039
<v Speaker 5>because we went through a solar maximum in the late seventies,

545
00:28:53.279 --> 00:28:56.519
<v Speaker 5>there was a lot more drag on Skylab than expected,

546
00:28:56.759 --> 00:28:59.519
<v Speaker 5>and so it deorbited well before the time they expected.

547
00:28:59.519 --> 00:29:02.359
<v Speaker 5>Plus space upletok, way too long. We'd lost Skylab in

548
00:29:02.400 --> 00:29:04.599
<v Speaker 5>nineteen seventy nine and didn't get Shuttle up till eady

549
00:29:04.599 --> 00:29:08.119
<v Speaker 5>one anyway. And I bring them all that up because

550
00:29:08.160 --> 00:29:10.839
<v Speaker 5>when you are trying to track satellites, you actually have

551
00:29:10.839 --> 00:29:12.440
<v Speaker 5>to scan them from the ground to figure out where

552
00:29:12.440 --> 00:29:15.200
<v Speaker 5>they are because the atmosphere disrupts them on a routine basis,

553
00:29:15.319 --> 00:29:18.640
<v Speaker 5>the same for a debris. Another aspect of satellite is important,

554
00:29:18.640 --> 00:29:22.039
<v Speaker 5>So where you orbit matters, and then your inclination of

555
00:29:22.119 --> 00:29:25.720
<v Speaker 5>orbit matters also. So if you're going to have a

556
00:29:25.720 --> 00:29:28.920
<v Speaker 5>geostationary satellite, in order for it to be geostationary, it

557
00:29:28.960 --> 00:29:33.359
<v Speaker 5>has an inclination of zero akaa over the equator. That's

558
00:29:33.359 --> 00:29:36.759
<v Speaker 5>the only way geostationary works, so that it stays in

559
00:29:36.799 --> 00:29:38.960
<v Speaker 5>place essentially. But as soon as you're in any other

560
00:29:39.079 --> 00:29:42.039
<v Speaker 5>orbit and you want to cover more of the Earth, essentially,

561
00:29:42.640 --> 00:29:46.160
<v Speaker 5>then you change the inclination. For example, the International Space

562
00:29:46.200 --> 00:29:48.920
<v Speaker 5>Station is an inclination of fifty one fifty one point

563
00:29:48.960 --> 00:29:54.079
<v Speaker 5>six degrees, and that inclination allows it to pass over

564
00:29:54.680 --> 00:29:57.079
<v Speaker 5>Russia on a regular basis because as much of Russian

565
00:29:57.079 --> 00:29:59.039
<v Speaker 5>modules there and they want to communicate with them. You know,

566
00:29:59.160 --> 00:30:02.319
<v Speaker 5>communications have to relay from the ground, and so where

567
00:30:02.319 --> 00:30:03.359
<v Speaker 5>it flies matters.

568
00:30:03.359 --> 00:30:06.319
<v Speaker 2>Interesting that you know, where I live is forty one

569
00:30:06.359 --> 00:30:10.440
<v Speaker 2>degrees north. Yeah, and I often see the ISS passing

570
00:30:10.440 --> 00:30:13.039
<v Speaker 2>overhead and it looks like it's directly overhead.

571
00:30:13.240 --> 00:30:17.519
<v Speaker 4>Yea, but yeah, it whis is by. And if you're

572
00:30:17.519 --> 00:30:20.319
<v Speaker 4>going to build a there is polar orbits. Those are

573
00:30:20.319 --> 00:30:22.960
<v Speaker 4>a little more tricky. But if you want to map

574
00:30:23.039 --> 00:30:25.000
<v Speaker 4>the whole Earth, or you want to you've got a

575
00:30:25.000 --> 00:30:26.559
<v Speaker 4>Spice satellite where you want to be able to fly

576
00:30:26.640 --> 00:30:29.200
<v Speaker 4>over everything, then you'll fly in like a ninety plus

577
00:30:29.200 --> 00:30:31.759
<v Speaker 4>degree orbit, so you'll literally fly out north or south.

578
00:30:31.799 --> 00:30:36.000
<v Speaker 4>Like Vandenberg Air Force, based on the West coast California,

579
00:30:36.200 --> 00:30:38.759
<v Speaker 4>has a clear shot south for launching rockets, so they

580
00:30:38.759 --> 00:30:41.119
<v Speaker 4>can do the polar orbits from there. It takes more energy,

581
00:30:41.720 --> 00:30:43.720
<v Speaker 4>but that allows you to cover more of the Earth.

582
00:30:43.839 --> 00:30:46.920
<v Speaker 4>So when you talk about starlink, the largest area of

583
00:30:47.000 --> 00:30:49.440
<v Speaker 4>satellites out there, it's there in about a fifty five

584
00:30:49.480 --> 00:30:52.519
<v Speaker 4>fifty six degree inclination orbit. There's a few variations on that,

585
00:30:53.480 --> 00:30:56.680
<v Speaker 4>and that covers most of the land that's inhabited. It

586
00:30:56.680 --> 00:31:01.079
<v Speaker 4>doesn't cover the poles, but it's close enough. Speaking of

587
00:31:01.079 --> 00:31:03.599
<v Speaker 4>Starlink and SpaceX in general, this is an important part

588
00:31:03.599 --> 00:31:06.960
<v Speaker 4>of the equation. So before Starlink, which rerely started in

589
00:31:06.960 --> 00:31:11.519
<v Speaker 4>about twenty nineteen, there was only about six thousand satellites

590
00:31:11.519 --> 00:31:14.039
<v Speaker 4>had been flown. Ever at about three thousand of them

591
00:31:14.119 --> 00:31:18.200
<v Speaker 4>operational at that time. But with the introduction of Falcon

592
00:31:18.319 --> 00:31:24.039
<v Speaker 4>nine by SpaceX, which lowered the price to flight traumatically. Today,

593
00:31:24.519 --> 00:31:27.680
<v Speaker 4>not counting Starlink, there's about forty five hundred operational satellites.

594
00:31:28.240 --> 00:31:31.480
<v Speaker 4>Anybody who has a choice of launch vehicles to fly

595
00:31:31.599 --> 00:31:34.359
<v Speaker 4>into space is going to choose Falcon nine because it's

596
00:31:34.680 --> 00:31:37.480
<v Speaker 4>so much cheaper. It's literally like five times cheaper than

597
00:31:37.519 --> 00:31:40.559
<v Speaker 4>the next closest competitor. The notable exception, of course is China,

598
00:31:40.599 --> 00:31:43.480
<v Speaker 4>who's not allowed to fly on Falcon nine, but everybody

599
00:31:43.519 --> 00:31:49.799
<v Speaker 4>else already does. But Starlink alone, they do one hundred

600
00:31:49.799 --> 00:31:53.400
<v Speaker 4>plus launches a year of twenty five to thirty satellites,

601
00:31:53.640 --> 00:31:58.799
<v Speaker 4>and so today there's about ninety five hundred starlink satellite. Wow,

602
00:31:59.079 --> 00:32:02.720
<v Speaker 4>so double everybody else out of twelve thousand launch So

603
00:32:02.759 --> 00:32:06.079
<v Speaker 4>they've already lost three thousand of them now and they

604
00:32:06.279 --> 00:32:06.680
<v Speaker 4>go ahead.

605
00:32:06.799 --> 00:32:10.039
<v Speaker 2>I have a question about starlink. Yeah, is the reason

606
00:32:10.079 --> 00:32:13.440
<v Speaker 2>they have so many for coverage or does it actually

607
00:32:13.599 --> 00:32:15.880
<v Speaker 2>every single one of them that goes up increase the

608
00:32:15.920 --> 00:32:19.039
<v Speaker 2>bandwidth to everybody? Like it's coverage? How is it network together?

609
00:32:19.240 --> 00:32:19.880
<v Speaker 2>Is it's coverage?

610
00:32:20.000 --> 00:32:24.160
<v Speaker 4>The vast majority of starlink communications is a direct relay,

611
00:32:24.680 --> 00:32:28.440
<v Speaker 4>So you're not connected to a ground based Internet connection,

612
00:32:28.559 --> 00:32:31.599
<v Speaker 4>say here, which you know on the coast. So, but

613
00:32:31.599 --> 00:32:33.599
<v Speaker 4>you're going to bounce off of that satellite, which is

614
00:32:33.599 --> 00:32:35.519
<v Speaker 4>then going to bounce it back to a ground station

615
00:32:35.640 --> 00:32:39.319
<v Speaker 4>that is connected to a land based connection. Yeah, that

616
00:32:39.440 --> 00:32:42.640
<v Speaker 4>is the vast majority of starlink communications. It's just one

617
00:32:42.680 --> 00:32:45.400
<v Speaker 4>paying up down to a ground station that's in reach.

618
00:32:46.279 --> 00:32:50.079
<v Speaker 4>The only when they need to will they relay between satellites,

619
00:32:50.079 --> 00:32:53.000
<v Speaker 4>which they can do. So this is how you get coverage,

620
00:32:53.039 --> 00:32:55.400
<v Speaker 4>say in the middle of Pacific Ocean, right where there

621
00:32:55.440 --> 00:32:58.279
<v Speaker 4>is no land immediately accessible, and so they will relay

622
00:32:58.279 --> 00:33:00.440
<v Speaker 4>across a couple of satellites before they come back. Doesn't

623
00:33:00.440 --> 00:33:02.640
<v Speaker 4>have to go very far, and lasers work pretty efficiently,

624
00:33:02.680 --> 00:33:05.279
<v Speaker 4>but it is slower to do that. But your best

625
00:33:05.279 --> 00:33:07.799
<v Speaker 4>performance on starlink is literally a single pin back down

626
00:33:07.839 --> 00:33:13.480
<v Speaker 4>of the terrestrial network. Understand that the fully populated starlink network,

627
00:33:13.519 --> 00:33:15.279
<v Speaker 4>which is not quite there yet, they should finish it

628
00:33:15.279 --> 00:33:18.200
<v Speaker 4>this year at twelve thousand satellites will be the complete network.

629
00:33:19.759 --> 00:33:24.599
<v Speaker 4>You're only got about as much about seven six hundred

630
00:33:24.640 --> 00:33:28.200
<v Speaker 4>to seven hundred gigabits of total bandwidth terabits of total

631
00:33:28.200 --> 00:33:32.440
<v Speaker 4>bandwidth capacity, which is one percent of the traffic over

632
00:33:32.480 --> 00:33:37.160
<v Speaker 4>the Internet. Basically, the total capacity of starlink is the

633
00:33:37.160 --> 00:33:40.000
<v Speaker 4>equivalent of one or two top of the line under

634
00:33:40.000 --> 00:33:43.519
<v Speaker 4>sea cables. It's just not that much bandwidth, relatively speaking,

635
00:33:44.359 --> 00:33:46.559
<v Speaker 4>and there's a reason for that. You can just cram

636
00:33:46.680 --> 00:33:49.559
<v Speaker 4>a lot more data down a piece of fiber than

637
00:33:49.599 --> 00:33:53.480
<v Speaker 4>you can through an atmosphere or even across space. It's

638
00:33:53.640 --> 00:33:57.640
<v Speaker 4>just not as focused and so you know the cable.

639
00:33:58.200 --> 00:34:00.000
<v Speaker 4>The undersea cables are long, but they're not as long

640
00:34:00.079 --> 00:34:03.720
<v Speaker 4>as space is long, so they're very efficient at moving

641
00:34:03.799 --> 00:34:06.200
<v Speaker 4>data arounds. So almost all data moves under the NDERC

642
00:34:06.319 --> 00:34:09.679
<v Speaker 4>cable network. Very little of it moves across systems like starlink,

643
00:34:09.920 --> 00:34:12.760
<v Speaker 4>but it's a last mile solution, right, you can get

644
00:34:12.800 --> 00:34:15.719
<v Speaker 4>that relay point and get it back down again. All right,

645
00:34:15.880 --> 00:34:18.360
<v Speaker 4>But we were talking about building data centers in space right,

646
00:34:18.400 --> 00:34:21.639
<v Speaker 4>specifically for AI compute. And this is where this whole

647
00:34:21.639 --> 00:34:26.239
<v Speaker 4>story comes up, as the situation with the AIH cycle

648
00:34:26.239 --> 00:34:28.920
<v Speaker 4>has gotten really serious and folks don't want too many

649
00:34:28.960 --> 00:34:30.800
<v Speaker 4>more data centers. So the sort of lash back has

650
00:34:30.800 --> 00:34:33.480
<v Speaker 4>been Okay, we'll just build them in space. The question

651
00:34:33.559 --> 00:34:37.119
<v Speaker 4>is what's practical. So we got to start. We're going

652
00:34:37.159 --> 00:34:39.199
<v Speaker 4>to build a satellite, so first us, we have to

653
00:34:39.239 --> 00:34:41.320
<v Speaker 4>start with our payload, because our payload's going to define

654
00:34:41.360 --> 00:34:45.639
<v Speaker 4>a bunch of things around the satellite. The unit of

655
00:34:45.679 --> 00:34:50.079
<v Speaker 4>work that I've chosen for this is an Nvidia NVL

656
00:34:50.239 --> 00:34:55.039
<v Speaker 4>seventy two. Okay, so this is a seventy two U

657
00:34:55.239 --> 00:35:00.599
<v Speaker 4>RAQ hence the name that has thirty six Grace GPUs

658
00:35:00.679 --> 00:35:04.079
<v Speaker 4>and seventy two Blackwell GPUs for total compute power about

659
00:35:04.119 --> 00:35:08.280
<v Speaker 4>seven hundred and twenty petaflops. So that's powerful enough to

660
00:35:08.440 --> 00:35:12.280
<v Speaker 4>run GPT four full on n FP four mode, so

661
00:35:12.519 --> 00:35:17.440
<v Speaker 4>trillion parameters could run in this rack. Yeah, okay, it's powerful.

662
00:35:18.400 --> 00:35:22.320
<v Speaker 4>Just to be clear, it's one point three metric tons.

663
00:35:23.119 --> 00:35:25.239
<v Speaker 4>Admittedly that's because it's in a housing and it's got

664
00:35:25.239 --> 00:35:28.000
<v Speaker 4>metal cases and stuff like that that that weight is

665
00:35:28.079 --> 00:35:30.840
<v Speaker 4>noted for making your floor strong enough if you're going

666
00:35:30.880 --> 00:35:34.159
<v Speaker 4>to build out a bunch of these things. And they

667
00:35:34.239 --> 00:35:39.360
<v Speaker 4>run about three million dollars a piece and consume one

668
00:35:39.480 --> 00:35:45.199
<v Speaker 4>hundred and thirty five kilowatts of electricity, which is the

669
00:35:45.239 --> 00:35:48.760
<v Speaker 4>same as the entire International Space Station. Actually wow. Now,

670
00:35:49.079 --> 00:35:53.440
<v Speaker 4>just to get scale on this, Microsoft recently announced in

671
00:35:53.480 --> 00:35:58.440
<v Speaker 4>one of their giant data centers they installed forty six

672
00:35:58.760 --> 00:36:04.360
<v Speaker 4>hundred of the okay, and normally these racks sit side

673
00:36:04.400 --> 00:36:07.320
<v Speaker 4>by side. They're liquid cooled, so they have pipes running

674
00:36:07.320 --> 00:36:09.960
<v Speaker 4>through them to do their cooling, and they're strung connected

675
00:36:10.000 --> 00:36:13.559
<v Speaker 4>together within finiband connections. And finiband connections are four hundred,

676
00:36:13.639 --> 00:36:18.199
<v Speaker 4>eight hundred or one point six gigabits per second. That's

677
00:36:18.280 --> 00:36:19.800
<v Speaker 4>terribits per second if you get to one point six,

678
00:36:19.840 --> 00:36:22.119
<v Speaker 4>so four hundred gigabits eight hundred gigabits are one point

679
00:36:22.119 --> 00:36:27.679
<v Speaker 4>six terabits per second at sub millisecond latencies. So when

680
00:36:27.719 --> 00:36:30.920
<v Speaker 4>you want to do a model build, if you're going

681
00:36:31.000 --> 00:36:33.039
<v Speaker 4>to make a new version of a model, you need

682
00:36:33.079 --> 00:36:35.559
<v Speaker 4>a lot of compute, huge amounts of compute, and it

683
00:36:35.559 --> 00:36:37.440
<v Speaker 4>has to be tightly tied together because there's lots of

684
00:36:37.440 --> 00:36:40.719
<v Speaker 4>communication going between all of these machines. And that speaks

685
00:36:40.719 --> 00:36:42.760
<v Speaker 4>to if we're just going to fly satellites with one

686
00:36:42.880 --> 00:36:45.360
<v Speaker 4>rack in them, we really can't build models with that.

687
00:36:45.440 --> 00:36:48.679
<v Speaker 4>We can do work right, you can utilize the model

688
00:36:48.719 --> 00:36:51.880
<v Speaker 4>up there, but you'd build models elsewhere, maybe in geostation

689
00:36:52.079 --> 00:36:55.559
<v Speaker 4>orbit one of these massive systems, or maybe on the ground.

690
00:36:55.960 --> 00:36:59.800
<v Speaker 4>But if you want low latency in low Werth orbit,

691
00:37:00.119 --> 00:37:02.280
<v Speaker 4>you're going to be smaller than this. And so a

692
00:37:02.360 --> 00:37:04.480
<v Speaker 4>rack like this is kind of as big as you

693
00:37:04.519 --> 00:37:08.639
<v Speaker 4>can go realistically. Now, the pay that racks only about

694
00:37:08.639 --> 00:37:10.400
<v Speaker 4>a ton ton and a half. Maybe we can lighten

695
00:37:10.480 --> 00:37:13.760
<v Speaker 4>it up with aluminum framing and so forth and get

696
00:37:13.800 --> 00:37:15.880
<v Speaker 4>it under a ton, But now we have to build

697
00:37:15.880 --> 00:37:19.480
<v Speaker 4>a satellite around it. So what are the components that

698
00:37:19.559 --> 00:37:23.079
<v Speaker 4>go into a satellite. Well, you need a bus, so

699
00:37:23.199 --> 00:37:26.320
<v Speaker 4>basically a carrier that this payload's going to sit inside.

700
00:37:26.360 --> 00:37:28.920
<v Speaker 4>It's going to need some on board compute for operating

701
00:37:28.920 --> 00:37:32.360
<v Speaker 4>the satellite itself, managing, doing health monitoring, command and control,

702
00:37:32.559 --> 00:37:35.559
<v Speaker 4>and so forth. A big piece of every satellite is

703
00:37:35.559 --> 00:37:38.559
<v Speaker 4>what we call attitude determination and control. So I need

704
00:37:38.599 --> 00:37:40.800
<v Speaker 4>to know which way I'm pointing and be able to

705
00:37:40.880 --> 00:37:43.360
<v Speaker 4>change my pointing direction as I need to. So you

706
00:37:43.400 --> 00:37:45.199
<v Speaker 4>have a need, you have a set of tools in there.

707
00:37:46.000 --> 00:37:50.079
<v Speaker 4>Main one will be inertial measurement units. So these are

708
00:37:50.320 --> 00:37:54.280
<v Speaker 4>a kind of gyroscope that basically measure the orientation constantly

709
00:37:54.320 --> 00:37:58.559
<v Speaker 4>the satellite. They're very precise, but they do drift over time,

710
00:37:58.639 --> 00:38:00.800
<v Speaker 4>so they need they do what we called relative tracking.

711
00:38:00.800 --> 00:38:04.880
<v Speaker 4>You need correction every so often, so then you need correctors,

712
00:38:04.880 --> 00:38:07.880
<v Speaker 4>and they're basically a couple of species of those. One

713
00:38:08.039 --> 00:38:10.599
<v Speaker 4>is what we call a star tracker. So these are

714
00:38:10.639 --> 00:38:16.079
<v Speaker 4>small telescopes electronically controlled that are watching for certain constellations

715
00:38:16.119 --> 00:38:19.440
<v Speaker 4>and knowing roughly where you are and what time it

716
00:38:19.559 --> 00:38:23.679
<v Speaker 4>is and what stars you're seeing, you can correct your

717
00:38:23.679 --> 00:38:27.199
<v Speaker 4>im used to be more precise. Obviously, you can't use

718
00:38:27.239 --> 00:38:29.039
<v Speaker 4>those when the sun is out, so we also have

719
00:38:29.199 --> 00:38:32.280
<v Speaker 4>sun trackers, and the sun tracker does the same sort

720
00:38:32.320 --> 00:38:34.719
<v Speaker 4>of job. It can infer a location based on the

721
00:38:34.760 --> 00:38:37.599
<v Speaker 4>location of the sun and the time, and so between

722
00:38:37.599 --> 00:38:41.000
<v Speaker 4>those sets of instruments is and they also use GPS

723
00:38:41.039 --> 00:38:43.360
<v Speaker 4>in certain cases for this as well. You can figure

724
00:38:43.360 --> 00:38:47.280
<v Speaker 4>out where you are and which way you're pointing, so

725
00:38:47.400 --> 00:38:52.079
<v Speaker 4>that is your attitude determination. Next comes your attitude control.

726
00:38:52.440 --> 00:38:54.440
<v Speaker 4>How do you turn the satellite, because you're going to

727
00:38:54.480 --> 00:38:56.480
<v Speaker 4>need to do that. You need to keep your intennas

728
00:38:56.519 --> 00:38:59.000
<v Speaker 4>pointed towards the ground for communication, you need to keep

729
00:38:59.000 --> 00:39:01.679
<v Speaker 4>your solar panels pointing towards the sun for power. You

730
00:39:01.679 --> 00:39:03.760
<v Speaker 4>need to keep your cooling away from the sun to

731
00:39:03.800 --> 00:39:09.280
<v Speaker 4>disperse heat. And so you have reaction wheels. Reaction wheels

732
00:39:10.119 --> 00:39:14.159
<v Speaker 4>literally are weighted wheels spinning in different orientations inside of

733
00:39:14.199 --> 00:39:16.320
<v Speaker 4>the chassis. And when you increase the spin on one,

734
00:39:16.360 --> 00:39:18.320
<v Speaker 4>just make it spin a little faster. It'll force the

735
00:39:18.320 --> 00:39:20.760
<v Speaker 4>satellite to rotate in an accent and you just keep

736
00:39:20.840 --> 00:39:23.239
<v Speaker 4>doing that to keep your alignment the way you want to.

737
00:39:23.760 --> 00:39:28.519
<v Speaker 4>Although eventually those flywheels hit top speed, which they call saturation.

738
00:39:29.559 --> 00:39:32.559
<v Speaker 4>And it's saturation you're gonna need to d spin, and

739
00:39:32.599 --> 00:39:35.480
<v Speaker 4>so you need to have a backup pointing system for

740
00:39:35.559 --> 00:39:38.280
<v Speaker 4>while you're d spinning or desaturating, and that's when you

741
00:39:38.360 --> 00:39:40.840
<v Speaker 4>might use thrusters. Or at least if you're in the

742
00:39:40.840 --> 00:39:45.320
<v Speaker 4>lower orbit, you can use magneto torkers, which you'll literally

743
00:39:45.400 --> 00:39:48.840
<v Speaker 4>press against the gravitational field of the Earth to orient

744
00:39:48.920 --> 00:39:50.559
<v Speaker 4>the satellite while you're desaturating.

745
00:39:50.599 --> 00:39:51.639
<v Speaker 2>Here, you're making this.

746
00:39:52.719 --> 00:39:54.519
<v Speaker 4>I know, I love it. It's so much fun. Like

747
00:39:54.559 --> 00:39:56.639
<v Speaker 4>just so many put bits and pieces to all this.

748
00:39:56.960 --> 00:39:59.199
<v Speaker 4>And believe me, what have we got so far? Command

749
00:39:59.239 --> 00:40:04.679
<v Speaker 4>and control and just attitude and orientation, right, that's all

750
00:40:04.679 --> 00:40:07.199
<v Speaker 4>we're managing so far. We're probably still going to need

751
00:40:07.199 --> 00:40:10.559
<v Speaker 4>an engine for actual boosts, which is a separate that

752
00:40:10.559 --> 00:40:11.880
<v Speaker 4>we shall work as part of this, but it's a

753
00:40:11.880 --> 00:40:14.079
<v Speaker 4>separate system and needs fuel on that. But we haven't

754
00:40:14.079 --> 00:40:16.119
<v Speaker 4>gotten to the heavy parts and the complicated parts that

755
00:40:16.199 --> 00:40:18.199
<v Speaker 4>really have to do with the payload. We have to

756
00:40:18.239 --> 00:40:21.639
<v Speaker 4>power it and we have to cool it, so obviously

757
00:40:21.639 --> 00:40:24.320
<v Speaker 4>it's going to be solar panels to power it. The

758
00:40:24.440 --> 00:40:28.480
<v Speaker 4>challenge here is it's one hundred and thirty five kilowatts

759
00:40:28.679 --> 00:40:31.840
<v Speaker 4>plus whatever the system itself needs. But we can probably

760
00:40:31.840 --> 00:40:33.960
<v Speaker 4>go with one hundred and thirty five kilowots. We get

761
00:40:34.000 --> 00:40:37.199
<v Speaker 4>thirteen hundred and sixty watts per square meter while we're

762
00:40:37.199 --> 00:40:40.519
<v Speaker 4>in orbit. We're going to be able to collect about

763
00:40:40.519 --> 00:40:42.159
<v Speaker 4>thirty five percent of that. So let's go with about

764
00:40:42.199 --> 00:40:45.559
<v Speaker 4>three hundred watts per square meter, So to get one

765
00:40:45.599 --> 00:40:47.800
<v Speaker 4>hundred and thirty five kilots, that's four hundred and fifty

766
00:40:47.880 --> 00:40:52.800
<v Speaker 4>square meters, So that's panels thirty meters long and seven

767
00:40:52.800 --> 00:40:54.880
<v Speaker 4>and a half meters right. Actually, it nets out almost

768
00:40:54.880 --> 00:40:57.280
<v Speaker 4>to exactly what the solar arrays are for the International

769
00:40:57.320 --> 00:41:00.519
<v Speaker 4>Space Station, although there are older rays up there and

770
00:41:00.519 --> 00:41:03.079
<v Speaker 4>there are new arrays, and new arrays are smaller, so

771
00:41:03.119 --> 00:41:07.559
<v Speaker 4>we have gotten more efficient with trying quadjunction panels. These

772
00:41:07.679 --> 00:41:11.719
<v Speaker 4>still would be big, big, big wings, and they're heavy

773
00:41:12.239 --> 00:41:14.840
<v Speaker 4>relatively speaking. So you know, our operating pala was only

774
00:41:14.880 --> 00:41:17.679
<v Speaker 4>about a ton. This would be three tons of solar

775
00:41:17.760 --> 00:41:20.639
<v Speaker 4>panels to generate that much power. Now, if you've got

776
00:41:20.639 --> 00:41:24.159
<v Speaker 4>one hundred and thirty five kilowatts of power generation, how

777
00:41:24.239 --> 00:41:25.880
<v Speaker 4>much cooling do you think you need?

778
00:41:26.360 --> 00:41:28.599
<v Speaker 2>God, geez, it's a good question.

779
00:41:29.159 --> 00:41:32.039
<v Speaker 4>One hundred and thirty five kilowats because every bit of

780
00:41:32.079 --> 00:41:35.519
<v Speaker 4>power you put in that spicy rock in there still

781
00:41:35.559 --> 00:41:38.840
<v Speaker 4>comes out as heat. And this is where we get

782
00:41:38.880 --> 00:41:43.440
<v Speaker 4>to the largest problem for the satellite is usually with satellites,

783
00:41:43.440 --> 00:41:46.079
<v Speaker 4>we're not running on anywhere near this much power, and

784
00:41:46.119 --> 00:41:50.719
<v Speaker 4>so you always have conformal cooling because space is a vacuum.

785
00:41:50.800 --> 00:41:53.320
<v Speaker 4>So it's like you're inside a thermist model and you're

786
00:41:53.360 --> 00:41:55.440
<v Speaker 4>making heat inside thermist moodel. It's really hard to get

787
00:41:55.440 --> 00:41:58.239
<v Speaker 4>that heat out and you don't have a medium to

788
00:41:58.320 --> 00:42:02.039
<v Speaker 4>do conduction or invection with. So your only way to

789
00:42:02.079 --> 00:42:06.960
<v Speaker 4>dissipate heat is radiatively. And so you've seen these on

790
00:42:06.960 --> 00:42:10.840
<v Speaker 4>the International Space Station, these cooling arrays. They are or

791
00:42:10.840 --> 00:42:13.119
<v Speaker 4>a U panels, these big white panels. So they actually

792
00:42:13.199 --> 00:42:17.719
<v Speaker 4>pump liquid ammonia through. Wow, because ammonia functions very well

793
00:42:17.760 --> 00:42:20.559
<v Speaker 4>in space, tends not the freeze, tends that it doesn't

794
00:42:20.559 --> 00:42:24.480
<v Speaker 4>boil too difficultly, and so and the phase change is useful,

795
00:42:24.480 --> 00:42:27.199
<v Speaker 4>will take the heat away. So you use ammonia in

796
00:42:27.239 --> 00:42:30.880
<v Speaker 4>the cooling loops on the processors and as that vaporizes,

797
00:42:31.159 --> 00:42:33.119
<v Speaker 4>it takes a lot of heat away. You then pump

798
00:42:33.119 --> 00:42:37.800
<v Speaker 4>it out into these radiators and they dissipate the heat radiatively,

799
00:42:37.920 --> 00:42:40.519
<v Speaker 4>and then that liquid comes back and loops in again.

800
00:42:41.920 --> 00:42:44.400
<v Speaker 4>Now again we can count on the International Space Station

801
00:42:44.440 --> 00:42:46.880
<v Speaker 4>for this is about the same power. There are two

802
00:42:47.079 --> 00:42:53.000
<v Speaker 4>sets of radiators with three spars each eight of eight panels.

803
00:42:53.920 --> 00:42:56.960
<v Speaker 4>They actually are heavier than everything else. They are about

804
00:42:57.000 --> 00:43:00.159
<v Speaker 4>three metric tons each and you need two of them,

805
00:43:00.639 --> 00:43:04.000
<v Speaker 4>so it's six tons worth of cooling for three tons

806
00:43:04.039 --> 00:43:05.880
<v Speaker 4>worth of power in a one to one and a

807
00:43:05.920 --> 00:43:07.000
<v Speaker 4>half ton paid Now.

808
00:43:06.840 --> 00:43:11.880
<v Speaker 2>I thought space was if you're on the sun facing

809
00:43:11.920 --> 00:43:15.440
<v Speaker 2>the sun extremely hot, and if you're not facing the

810
00:43:15.480 --> 00:43:19.039
<v Speaker 2>sun extremely cold it is can you take advantage of

811
00:43:19.079 --> 00:43:20.239
<v Speaker 2>that to cool.

812
00:43:20.280 --> 00:43:23.440
<v Speaker 4>Well, normally you do to a degree. Being in the

813
00:43:23.480 --> 00:43:26.320
<v Speaker 4>shade is useful, but in the end it's it's cold,

814
00:43:26.360 --> 00:43:27.559
<v Speaker 4>but there's no way to move the heat.

815
00:43:27.639 --> 00:43:29.320
<v Speaker 2>Oh yeah, you got to get the heat out.

816
00:43:29.280 --> 00:43:31.639
<v Speaker 4>Because there's nothing to communicate with, right, Yeah, you got

817
00:43:31.679 --> 00:43:33.239
<v Speaker 4>to get the heat out. Yeah, right, So that's why

818
00:43:33.239 --> 00:43:35.440
<v Speaker 4>you need these big radiators, and those radiators need to

819
00:43:35.440 --> 00:43:37.519
<v Speaker 4>be in the shade. Now, you can do that with

820
00:43:37.599 --> 00:43:41.199
<v Speaker 4>your satellite and your solar arrays just to shade these

821
00:43:41.239 --> 00:43:45.880
<v Speaker 4>cooling arrays. But in a normal satellite, in a normal orbit,

822
00:43:46.360 --> 00:43:49.239
<v Speaker 4>especially in lowerth orbit like the space station, you spend

823
00:43:49.239 --> 00:43:51.400
<v Speaker 4>forty five minutes in the sun and forty five minutes

824
00:43:51.400 --> 00:43:54.719
<v Speaker 4>in the dark. Think about the power system that that involves.

825
00:43:54.960 --> 00:43:58.719
<v Speaker 4>So for forty five minutes you're collecting electricity off those panels,

826
00:43:59.039 --> 00:44:02.039
<v Speaker 4>and you're also charged up the batteries for the forty

827
00:44:02.039 --> 00:44:04.000
<v Speaker 4>five minutes that you're in the shade where you're running

828
00:44:04.159 --> 00:44:06.840
<v Speaker 4>entirely on battery, and then you have to do it

829
00:44:06.840 --> 00:44:09.199
<v Speaker 4>again over and over and over and over again. So

830
00:44:09.239 --> 00:44:11.679
<v Speaker 4>that also speaks to we're gonna need some honk and

831
00:44:11.719 --> 00:44:13.239
<v Speaker 4>big batteries for this as well.

832
00:44:13.719 --> 00:44:19.199
<v Speaker 2>Right, Fortunately, the guy sending the satellites up there makes batteries.

833
00:44:19.320 --> 00:44:23.000
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, so figure about a ton and a half for

834
00:44:23.039 --> 00:44:26.880
<v Speaker 4>one hundred and forty kilowatts of battery, right, I mean

835
00:44:27.159 --> 00:44:28.559
<v Speaker 4>you're going to need a little bit of cushion here,

836
00:44:28.559 --> 00:44:30.119
<v Speaker 4>so you're only going to be in shade for forty

837
00:44:30.119 --> 00:44:32.920
<v Speaker 4>five minutes. But we can also play with orbits where

838
00:44:32.920 --> 00:44:34.320
<v Speaker 4>you're not in shade at all, so you may not

839
00:44:34.360 --> 00:44:36.880
<v Speaker 4>need these batteries. Yeah, that's one of the options, is

840
00:44:37.000 --> 00:44:39.119
<v Speaker 4>the one that Elon's talking about. It's actually going into

841
00:44:39.199 --> 00:44:41.079
<v Speaker 4>a sun synchronous orbit where you're never in the shades,

842
00:44:41.079 --> 00:44:42.400
<v Speaker 4>so you don't have to hold the batteries run because

843
00:44:42.400 --> 00:44:45.440
<v Speaker 4>batteries we're out and they need chargers, and those chargers

844
00:44:45.480 --> 00:44:48.000
<v Speaker 4>can generate more heat. So as soon as you go

845
00:44:48.039 --> 00:44:52.760
<v Speaker 4>down the battery path. You need more heat management. Ramming

846
00:44:52.800 --> 00:44:55.440
<v Speaker 4>that power into those batteries that quickly is very hard.

847
00:44:56.719 --> 00:44:59.840
<v Speaker 4>Final piece on this thing would be the communications systems,

848
00:45:00.119 --> 00:45:02.440
<v Speaker 4>and again we're used to InFine ban, which is incredibly

849
00:45:02.480 --> 00:45:05.559
<v Speaker 4>lit latency, incredibly high bandwidth. We don't have the equivalent

850
00:45:05.559 --> 00:45:08.239
<v Speaker 4>in space. The fastest system is actually made by SpaceX.

851
00:45:08.239 --> 00:45:11.800
<v Speaker 4>It's their optical mesh, which does do one hundred gigabits,

852
00:45:11.800 --> 00:45:14.639
<v Speaker 4>which is pretty compelling, and you could probably gang these

853
00:45:14.719 --> 00:45:16.440
<v Speaker 4>up if you need more bandwidth than that. Which you're

854
00:45:16.440 --> 00:45:17.599
<v Speaker 4>not going to be able to get away from is

855
00:45:17.599 --> 00:45:21.480
<v Speaker 4>the latency because you're still transmitting some distance and so

856
00:45:21.679 --> 00:45:26.000
<v Speaker 4>it's still several milliseconds between satellites, which is fine when

857
00:45:26.039 --> 00:45:28.920
<v Speaker 4>it's starlink, but if you were trying to mesh a

858
00:45:28.920 --> 00:45:30.679
<v Speaker 4>bunch of these satellites together, as if they were in

859
00:45:30.679 --> 00:45:33.320
<v Speaker 4>a data center, it's not fast enough. You're going to

860
00:45:33.400 --> 00:45:37.159
<v Speaker 4>have problems. And they're not particularly heavy, not even particularly

861
00:45:37.199 --> 00:45:40.800
<v Speaker 4>power consumptive, but they are. They're just not as efficient

862
00:45:40.920 --> 00:45:44.280
<v Speaker 4>and relating to the ground. You're going to go with

863
00:45:45.280 --> 00:45:49.599
<v Speaker 4>various kinds of microwave transmitters, and so we've got a

864
00:45:49.639 --> 00:45:52.360
<v Speaker 4>rough concept of a satellite now something in the neighborhood

865
00:45:52.360 --> 00:45:56.679
<v Speaker 4>of twelve metric tons, which is big but not unprecedantly big,

866
00:45:57.079 --> 00:46:00.039
<v Speaker 4>and big solar arrays and cooling panels on this and

867
00:46:00.079 --> 00:46:02.119
<v Speaker 4>if you actually go on the SpaceX website, they talk

868
00:46:02.159 --> 00:46:05.639
<v Speaker 4>about the AISAT Mini and that's pretty much exactly what

869
00:46:05.719 --> 00:46:10.519
<v Speaker 4>I've described. So, but they are big. The largest commercial

870
00:46:10.559 --> 00:46:12.880
<v Speaker 4>satellite in the world today is a satellite called Jupiter

871
00:46:12.960 --> 00:46:16.280
<v Speaker 4>three and it's about ten metric tons. There are military

872
00:46:16.320 --> 00:46:21.000
<v Speaker 4>satellites bigger than that Keyhole was fifteen, like, there's probably

873
00:46:21.039 --> 00:46:23.800
<v Speaker 4>some twenties out there. So we're in the ballpark at

874
00:46:23.800 --> 00:46:26.920
<v Speaker 4>twelve metric tons. That's very feasible, but that also now

875
00:46:27.000 --> 00:46:31.360
<v Speaker 4>gets into our launch and location problems. Before we get

876
00:46:31.360 --> 00:46:32.559
<v Speaker 4>into that, why don't we take a break.

877
00:46:32.639 --> 00:46:35.119
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it sounds good. We'll be right back after these

878
00:46:35.199 --> 00:46:42.159
<v Speaker 2>very important messages. Stick around Arabak. It's a dot net

879
00:46:42.239 --> 00:46:46.719
<v Speaker 2>rocks midyear geek out data centers in space. Right back

880
00:46:46.760 --> 00:46:47.360
<v Speaker 2>to you, Richard.

881
00:46:47.679 --> 00:46:50.199
<v Speaker 4>So we got a twelve metric tons satellite we need

882
00:46:50.239 --> 00:46:52.639
<v Speaker 4>to lift. How are we going to lift it? Well,

883
00:46:52.679 --> 00:46:55.920
<v Speaker 4>if you're using Falcon nines, which can lift like twenty

884
00:46:55.920 --> 00:46:58.719
<v Speaker 4>five starlings at a time at twelve metric tons, though

885
00:46:58.760 --> 00:47:01.599
<v Speaker 4>you know those starlings are eight hundred kilos less than

886
00:47:01.639 --> 00:47:04.840
<v Speaker 4>a done so here we're talking fulkon down could lift

887
00:47:04.840 --> 00:47:07.079
<v Speaker 4>maybe one if you could fold it up tight enough

888
00:47:07.119 --> 00:47:09.559
<v Speaker 4>to even fit in the payload bay faulk and heavy.

889
00:47:09.639 --> 00:47:13.039
<v Speaker 4>Maybe five. The new Glen rocket, the one that just

890
00:47:13.039 --> 00:47:17.000
<v Speaker 4>blew up from Blue Origin, we could lift three. Starship

891
00:47:17.159 --> 00:47:19.800
<v Speaker 4>Block three. The current one that we're testing right now

892
00:47:19.880 --> 00:47:23.039
<v Speaker 4>could fly eight. Right, So it's going to take a

893
00:47:23.039 --> 00:47:24.679
<v Speaker 4>while to lift a lot of these. You remember Elon

894
00:47:24.800 --> 00:47:27.960
<v Speaker 4>was talking about flying millions of these, which is kind

895
00:47:28.000 --> 00:47:31.920
<v Speaker 4>of crazy. Uh, for no other reason? Then, how many

896
00:47:31.960 --> 00:47:36.000
<v Speaker 4>satellites can you reasonably fly? Yeah? You know how many

897
00:47:36.039 --> 00:47:40.119
<v Speaker 4>of these aisats are you're actually going to need? When

898
00:47:40.159 --> 00:47:43.000
<v Speaker 4>you think that Microsoft alone in one data center put

899
00:47:43.000 --> 00:47:47.719
<v Speaker 4>in forty six hundreds NVL seventy two's you know you

900
00:47:47.880 --> 00:47:53.119
<v Speaker 4>could that's forty six hundred satellites. Like that's about you know,

901
00:47:53.199 --> 00:47:56.639
<v Speaker 4>five hundred launches of starlink alone. That's a crazy number.

902
00:47:57.079 --> 00:48:00.559
<v Speaker 4>How many things to reasonably need? And they also makes

903
00:48:00.559 --> 00:48:03.199
<v Speaker 4>the question like how many can we actually have in

904
00:48:03.239 --> 00:48:06.599
<v Speaker 4>lower th orbit? Like what's feasible right now? We have

905
00:48:07.159 --> 00:48:10.440
<v Speaker 4>somewhere in the neighborhood of twelve thousand satellites in lower thorbit,

906
00:48:10.480 --> 00:48:13.639
<v Speaker 4>most of which are starlink, and they're not the only

907
00:48:13.719 --> 00:48:17.840
<v Speaker 4>network right Amazon is working on their LEO project, formerly

908
00:48:17.920 --> 00:48:20.159
<v Speaker 4>known as Project Kuiper, which I'd like to name better,

909
00:48:20.159 --> 00:48:22.000
<v Speaker 4>but now they're calling it LEO is in lowerth orbit.

910
00:48:22.480 --> 00:48:25.119
<v Speaker 4>They've already flown three hundred to their satellites. Their goal

911
00:48:25.199 --> 00:48:28.159
<v Speaker 4>is thirty two hundred satellites. They think they can provide

912
00:48:28.199 --> 00:48:29.800
<v Speaker 4>a good array of thirty two hundred satellites, so I

913
00:48:29.800 --> 00:48:31.880
<v Speaker 4>guess we'll see. I know this folks who would like

914
00:48:31.920 --> 00:48:35.719
<v Speaker 4>to use something other than starlink, So that's a competition

915
00:48:36.360 --> 00:48:39.400
<v Speaker 4>coming up. And then there's the Chinese, because the Chinese

916
00:48:39.440 --> 00:48:44.280
<v Speaker 4>are actually proposing three different mega constellations. The one that's

917
00:48:44.280 --> 00:48:47.280
<v Speaker 4>the farthest along is they call the thousand Sales constellation.

918
00:48:47.400 --> 00:48:50.480
<v Speaker 4>It's out of Shanghai. They've flown seven hundred and fifty

919
00:48:50.480 --> 00:48:54.199
<v Speaker 4>satellites already and they plan on global coverage by twenty

920
00:48:54.239 --> 00:48:57.840
<v Speaker 4>twenty seven, coming maxing out by twenty thirty at fifteen

921
00:48:57.960 --> 00:49:00.519
<v Speaker 4>thousand satellites. So if you're doing the math, we got

922
00:49:00.519 --> 00:49:03.920
<v Speaker 4>about fifteen thousand satellites now all told, plus another fifteen

923
00:49:03.920 --> 00:49:08.039
<v Speaker 4>thousand China three thousand plus from LEO, So we're thirty

924
00:49:08.039 --> 00:49:11.599
<v Speaker 4>three thirty four thousand satellites. And then there's two other

925
00:49:11.679 --> 00:49:16.119
<v Speaker 4>networks that Chinese want to fly, one specifically military orient

926
00:49:16.159 --> 00:49:18.760
<v Speaker 4>and the other one's a different project altogether.

927
00:49:19.039 --> 00:49:23.679
<v Speaker 2>So sounds like it's Sharky's day today. Do you get

928
00:49:23.719 --> 00:49:27.400
<v Speaker 2>the reference? No, it's a sky blue sky. Satellites are

929
00:49:27.440 --> 00:49:29.039
<v Speaker 2>out tonight. Laurie Anderson.

930
00:49:29.280 --> 00:49:30.760
<v Speaker 4>Oh, that's Laurie Anderson.

931
00:49:30.840 --> 00:49:32.480
<v Speaker 2>Yeh, satellites are out tonight.

932
00:49:33.039 --> 00:49:34.920
<v Speaker 4>Satellites are out tonight. Boy, that's going to be a

933
00:49:34.920 --> 00:49:37.079
<v Speaker 4>lot of satellites, and it really bakes it.

934
00:49:37.320 --> 00:49:38.480
<v Speaker 2>That's a lot of satellites.

935
00:49:38.559 --> 00:49:41.360
<v Speaker 4>Let's go back to Wade's question about what about collisions,

936
00:49:41.360 --> 00:49:46.480
<v Speaker 4>because we have had collisions right although generally speaking, as

937
00:49:46.519 --> 00:49:49.400
<v Speaker 4>long as the satellites are active, they can avoid each other.

938
00:49:49.800 --> 00:49:52.320
<v Speaker 4>It's when we deal with debris that we really get problematic,

939
00:49:52.440 --> 00:49:55.360
<v Speaker 4>and the anti satellite tests that have happened are really

940
00:49:55.639 --> 00:50:01.599
<v Speaker 4>catastrophically stupid, invigorating more debris. The numbers are a little

941
00:50:01.599 --> 00:50:04.719
<v Speaker 4>bit secretive. Not everybody's talking about this in large scale,

942
00:50:04.800 --> 00:50:07.079
<v Speaker 4>but NASA has to publish their numbers for the Space

943
00:50:07.119 --> 00:50:09.719
<v Speaker 4>station and so I went back and looked at the

944
00:50:09.760 --> 00:50:12.480
<v Speaker 4>space station being the largest object in order by far,

945
00:50:12.599 --> 00:50:16.960
<v Speaker 4>it's the size of a football field. Before starlink started,

946
00:50:17.239 --> 00:50:20.239
<v Speaker 4>back in the day twenty nineteen, when there was about

947
00:50:20.239 --> 00:50:23.360
<v Speaker 4>three thousand operational satellites total, which the space station was

948
00:50:23.400 --> 00:50:28.559
<v Speaker 4>one of them. There was also twenty thousand tracked objects. Okay,

949
00:50:28.960 --> 00:50:33.039
<v Speaker 4>so that's is that space junk space junk exactly. And

950
00:50:34.840 --> 00:50:37.320
<v Speaker 4>the goal here is to keep everything at least three

951
00:50:37.400 --> 00:50:40.000
<v Speaker 4>kilometers away from each other. And so you're using radar

952
00:50:40.119 --> 00:50:42.840
<v Speaker 4>on the surface, especially in Leo, because the orbits keep

953
00:50:42.920 --> 00:50:46.559
<v Speaker 4>changing based on atmospheric effect, and they would have a

954
00:50:46.599 --> 00:50:48.880
<v Speaker 4>couple they get a couple dozen mornings a day, most

955
00:50:48.920 --> 00:50:51.480
<v Speaker 4>of which could resolve without a maneuvering at all. Is like, yeah, no,

956
00:50:51.519 --> 00:50:53.480
<v Speaker 4>they're not going to get that close because they would

957
00:50:53.519 --> 00:50:55.719
<v Speaker 4>have to do more precise calculations each time to sort

958
00:50:55.719 --> 00:51:00.360
<v Speaker 4>of adjust that. Most satellites pre twenty nineteen never needed

959
00:51:00.400 --> 00:51:03.960
<v Speaker 4>to maneuver to avoid anything. The space station, as the

960
00:51:04.039 --> 00:51:09.280
<v Speaker 4>largest object up there, would maneuver once or twice a year. Now.

961
00:51:09.320 --> 00:51:11.480
<v Speaker 4>Partly that was because the projective boundary around the space

962
00:51:11.480 --> 00:51:13.840
<v Speaker 4>station is much larger because there are people on board,

963
00:51:13.880 --> 00:51:16.920
<v Speaker 4>and so we're way more careful, but also it's very

964
00:51:17.000 --> 00:51:24.519
<v Speaker 4>very big. As starlink has grown as a network, SpaceX

965
00:51:24.559 --> 00:51:26.960
<v Speaker 4>is instituted a mechanism where the satellites are talking to

966
00:51:27.039 --> 00:51:29.440
<v Speaker 4>each other and avoiding each other because they're all in

967
00:51:29.519 --> 00:51:35.079
<v Speaker 4>similar orbits, and so they now all maneuver almost every day.

968
00:51:35.400 --> 00:51:40.760
<v Speaker 4>They're ninety five hundred so satellites, and the space station's

969
00:51:41.079 --> 00:51:45.639
<v Speaker 4>reevaluate its location is reevaluated three times a day to

970
00:51:45.760 --> 00:51:48.199
<v Speaker 4>cope with potential junk and so forth, wow, and is

971
00:51:48.239 --> 00:51:52.159
<v Speaker 4>at least a maneuver every other month to avoid debris.

972
00:51:52.679 --> 00:51:56.159
<v Speaker 4>And that's at fifteen thousand satellites and about fifty thousand

973
00:51:56.280 --> 00:52:00.280
<v Speaker 4>total objects in order now is twenty twenty six. So

974
00:52:00.440 --> 00:52:03.320
<v Speaker 4>the fifty thousand objects that we're tracking, fifteen thousand of

975
00:52:03.320 --> 00:52:07.280
<v Speaker 4>them are working satellites, fourteen hundred dollars defunct satellites no

976
00:52:07.360 --> 00:52:13.079
<v Speaker 4>longer operational. There are nineteen hundred rocket bodies. So these

977
00:52:13.119 --> 00:52:17.599
<v Speaker 4>are the largest inert objects in orbit. Now, what's a

978
00:52:17.679 --> 00:52:20.639
<v Speaker 4>rocket body? These are typically top stages that were used

979
00:52:20.679 --> 00:52:24.320
<v Speaker 4>to boost into high orbits and then weren't rendered. Most

980
00:52:24.960 --> 00:52:29.440
<v Speaker 4>boost stages or second stages, deliberately deorbit, so they save

981
00:52:29.519 --> 00:52:32.519
<v Speaker 4>a little fuel and after they push the payload off,

982
00:52:33.280 --> 00:52:35.039
<v Speaker 4>then they wait for the payload to get away, they

983
00:52:35.079 --> 00:52:37.920
<v Speaker 4>turn around and they do a burn to deorbit to

984
00:52:38.000 --> 00:52:41.800
<v Speaker 4>land in the ocean, especially with larger spacecraft, where it's

985
00:52:41.920 --> 00:52:44.000
<v Speaker 4>very likely that the upper stage will make it to

986
00:52:44.119 --> 00:52:47.519
<v Speaker 4>land will actually hit the ground, so they aim to

987
00:52:47.599 --> 00:52:48.360
<v Speaker 4>land in water.

988
00:52:49.079 --> 00:52:51.920
<v Speaker 2>And that's what we saw last summer, right when the

989
00:52:52.920 --> 00:52:56.920
<v Speaker 2>was it a Falcon nine body that was ejected and

990
00:52:56.960 --> 00:52:58.920
<v Speaker 2>it was spinning in space and people thought it was

991
00:52:58.920 --> 00:53:00.360
<v Speaker 2>a UFO and stuff.

992
00:53:00.400 --> 00:53:02.079
<v Speaker 4>Do you remember this, Yeah, we've had we've seen a

993
00:53:02.159 --> 00:53:05.519
<v Speaker 4>few burn ups now because there's far more burnings out

994
00:53:05.559 --> 00:53:08.519
<v Speaker 4>up there. So that's about eighteen thousand of the fifty

995
00:53:08.559 --> 00:53:13.480
<v Speaker 4>thousand objects. The other thirty two thousand objects are debris

996
00:53:14.159 --> 00:53:18.679
<v Speaker 4>ten centimeters or bigger, so that's about five inches or

997
00:53:18.679 --> 00:53:21.880
<v Speaker 4>four inches across. Smaller than that we can't track. Wow,

998
00:53:21.880 --> 00:53:22.880
<v Speaker 4>it's just too small.

999
00:53:23.199 --> 00:53:26.280
<v Speaker 2>But they're still deadly because, like you know, something the

1000
00:53:26.320 --> 00:53:31.000
<v Speaker 2>size of a bbie could puncture a hole in an

1001
00:53:31.000 --> 00:53:34.159
<v Speaker 2>engine or in a satellite and completely destroy it.

1002
00:53:34.239 --> 00:53:36.719
<v Speaker 4>Well, we had impacts on the space station, which does

1003
00:53:36.840 --> 00:53:40.400
<v Speaker 4>have impact protection. We've seen chips and glass and so forth.

1004
00:53:40.400 --> 00:53:44.920
<v Speaker 4>The small debris still hits hard, Yeah, but the systems

1005
00:53:45.000 --> 00:53:48.280
<v Speaker 4>largely can tolerated bigger than ten centimeters and they probably

1006
00:53:48.280 --> 00:53:50.079
<v Speaker 4>can't protect from it, which is why they keep track

1007
00:53:50.119 --> 00:53:52.440
<v Speaker 4>of all of those things. And so there is a

1008
00:53:52.440 --> 00:53:56.360
<v Speaker 4>big push on you know, minute, we've been working hard

1009
00:53:56.400 --> 00:54:00.159
<v Speaker 4>to not generate more debris. Please, no more any satellite tests,

1010
00:54:00.159 --> 00:54:05.519
<v Speaker 4>stupid deorbit, your bodies, doorbit your satellites, like, be responsible

1011
00:54:05.519 --> 00:54:08.760
<v Speaker 4>about it. But there is a whole conversation about, well,

1012
00:54:08.800 --> 00:54:12.159
<v Speaker 4>how many satellites are reasonable in lowerth orbit, like how

1013
00:54:12.159 --> 00:54:15.400
<v Speaker 4>many could we really handle? And I found a study

1014
00:54:15.880 --> 00:54:19.760
<v Speaker 4>published by the Miter organization, which is a non governmental

1015
00:54:19.880 --> 00:54:22.320
<v Speaker 4>entity that does this kind of research. They published it

1016
00:54:22.360 --> 00:54:25.360
<v Speaker 4>in Breaking Events in twenty twenty four, and what they

1017
00:54:25.400 --> 00:54:28.360
<v Speaker 4>talked about was these mega constellations, these huge eras of

1018
00:54:28.400 --> 00:54:32.159
<v Speaker 4>satellites like Starlink, all talking to each other, all cooperating

1019
00:54:32.239 --> 00:54:35.199
<v Speaker 4>to avoid each other. So that would mean you know,

1020
00:54:36.079 --> 00:54:40.440
<v Speaker 4>Amazon and SpaceX getting along and doing shared communications to

1021
00:54:40.440 --> 00:54:44.519
<v Speaker 4>avoid each other. And the Chinese government also playing ball

1022
00:54:44.559 --> 00:54:46.960
<v Speaker 4>on this as well. Wow, the belief is they could

1023
00:54:46.960 --> 00:54:50.159
<v Speaker 4>get to one hundred thousand satellites in lower th orbit. Jeez, now,

1024
00:54:50.239 --> 00:54:53.880
<v Speaker 4>considering we're already talking about forty fifty thousand satellites just

1025
00:54:53.920 --> 00:54:58.159
<v Speaker 4>for communications, these low latency communications solutions. It doesn't leave

1026
00:54:58.159 --> 00:55:01.639
<v Speaker 4>a lot of room for aideas. There's certainly not the

1027
00:55:01.760 --> 00:55:04.400
<v Speaker 4>millions that SpaceX has talked about.

1028
00:55:04.480 --> 00:55:07.239
<v Speaker 2>Do they all need to be at the same elevation though,

1029
00:55:07.440 --> 00:55:09.760
<v Speaker 2>I mean, can you have like highways?

1030
00:55:09.559 --> 00:55:12.880
<v Speaker 4>But they don't. They're running different shells. Yeah, they have

1031
00:55:12.880 --> 00:55:16.599
<v Speaker 4>different layers, without a doubt. But remember they're constantly subjected

1032
00:55:16.639 --> 00:55:19.280
<v Speaker 4>to drag from the atmosphere, so their orbits are changing

1033
00:55:19.320 --> 00:55:21.719
<v Speaker 4>all the time and they have to be adjusted for that,

1034
00:55:21.840 --> 00:55:23.480
<v Speaker 4>and then they only have so much fuel. I mean,

1035
00:55:23.519 --> 00:55:25.679
<v Speaker 4>it's an interesting aspect of Starlink. This is a bit

1036
00:55:25.679 --> 00:55:29.039
<v Speaker 4>of a digression, but an interesting one. Starlink's lifespan on

1037
00:55:29.079 --> 00:55:33.000
<v Speaker 4>their satellites is only five years twelve thousand satellites. That

1038
00:55:33.079 --> 00:55:39.360
<v Speaker 4>means every year they expect twenty percent of the fleet,

1039
00:55:39.760 --> 00:55:44.400
<v Speaker 4>or twenty four hundred satellites to deorbit. How much is that?

1040
00:55:44.480 --> 00:55:49.519
<v Speaker 4>You know, that's fifteen hundred and eighteen hundred metric tons

1041
00:55:49.559 --> 00:55:52.159
<v Speaker 4>of debris burning up in the atmosphere. It's just a

1042
00:55:52.159 --> 00:55:55.400
<v Speaker 4>lot of aluminum. It's a lot. Yeah, And it also

1043
00:55:55.480 --> 00:55:56.719
<v Speaker 4>means you're going to have to replace it, and if

1044
00:55:56.719 --> 00:55:58.599
<v Speaker 4>you only flit twenty five per fulk and nine means

1045
00:55:58.599 --> 00:56:02.199
<v Speaker 4>it's one hundred Falcon nine flights just to maintain the

1046
00:56:02.239 --> 00:56:05.159
<v Speaker 4>network right now, presumably with Starship, they're going to be

1047
00:56:05.159 --> 00:56:08.239
<v Speaker 4>able to fly bigger satellites and more of them, so

1048
00:56:08.320 --> 00:56:10.480
<v Speaker 4>they will you know, that equation will change a bit.

1049
00:56:10.559 --> 00:56:14.840
<v Speaker 4>But yeah, there's a lot of debris coming in the

1050
00:56:15.719 --> 00:56:18.199
<v Speaker 4>nineteen hundred. Rocket bodies are by far the most concerning

1051
00:56:18.239 --> 00:56:22.440
<v Speaker 4>thing today. Again, they generally deorbit these things that they can,

1052
00:56:22.559 --> 00:56:24.000
<v Speaker 4>but they don't have enough fuel to do that. At

1053
00:56:24.079 --> 00:56:26.840
<v Speaker 4>least they depressurize them. Because if you leave a pressurized

1054
00:56:26.920 --> 00:56:28.880
<v Speaker 4>vessel in orbit, sooner or later something's going to break

1055
00:56:28.880 --> 00:56:32.480
<v Speaker 4>and they're going to explode and make debris. And so today,

1056
00:56:33.159 --> 00:56:35.760
<v Speaker 4>if you're doing a geostationary transfer to something, you're probably

1057
00:56:35.760 --> 00:56:37.239
<v Speaker 4>not gonna be able to get the booster back onto

1058
00:56:37.239 --> 00:56:40.039
<v Speaker 4>the Earth anytime soon, and so after you release your payload,

1059
00:56:40.039 --> 00:56:42.239
<v Speaker 4>you'll at least depressurreized. So it's in a nerd object.

1060
00:56:42.320 --> 00:56:47.840
<v Speaker 4>It's not dangerous with satellites. Many satellites now it's normal

1061
00:56:47.840 --> 00:56:51.679
<v Speaker 4>practice is simply maintain enough fuel on board that before

1062
00:56:51.719 --> 00:56:54.480
<v Speaker 4>you're fully out of fuel, you will burn the last

1063
00:56:54.480 --> 00:56:57.400
<v Speaker 4>of your maneuvering fuel to put yourself in a deliberate

1064
00:56:57.400 --> 00:57:00.639
<v Speaker 4>deorbit into the ocean. That's just you know, response behavior.

1065
00:57:03.000 --> 00:57:05.880
<v Speaker 4>There's also some passive deorbit strategies which have always been

1066
00:57:05.920 --> 00:57:08.119
<v Speaker 4>tested but never used, like a solar sale is a

1067
00:57:08.159 --> 00:57:12.039
<v Speaker 4>real thing, a very thin film of capon or something

1068
00:57:12.079 --> 00:57:14.960
<v Speaker 4>similar like that, like aluminum foil that you stretch out

1069
00:57:14.960 --> 00:57:19.280
<v Speaker 4>that the solar radiation, the particles coming from the Sun

1070
00:57:19.320 --> 00:57:21.559
<v Speaker 4>actually pressing against and will slow you down. So you

1071
00:57:21.679 --> 00:57:25.320
<v Speaker 4>show it in the prograde direction so that it's causing

1072
00:57:25.320 --> 00:57:29.480
<v Speaker 4>a retrograde acceleration. So you put it up when the

1073
00:57:29.480 --> 00:57:31.320
<v Speaker 4>Sun's in front of you and it'll slow you down,

1074
00:57:31.360 --> 00:57:32.920
<v Speaker 4>and then what's behind you, you close it up so

1075
00:57:32.960 --> 00:57:35.480
<v Speaker 4>it doesn't accelerate you and you can speed up your deorbit.

1076
00:57:35.679 --> 00:57:37.480
<v Speaker 4>Depends on the size of the satellite, of course, only

1077
00:57:37.519 --> 00:57:39.360
<v Speaker 4>smaller ones. So that's going to work for our twelve

1078
00:57:39.400 --> 00:57:43.199
<v Speaker 4>ton beast that is this AI data center. That's probably

1079
00:57:43.199 --> 00:57:45.880
<v Speaker 4>not a practical thing for. Further to Wade's comment on

1080
00:57:45.920 --> 00:57:49.039
<v Speaker 4>the show about managing debris, there are now as cost

1081
00:57:49.119 --> 00:57:51.559
<v Speaker 4>of flying the orbit has gotten cheaper, we're starting to

1082
00:57:51.559 --> 00:57:55.719
<v Speaker 4>see more initiatives to deliberately remove debris, so like actually

1083
00:57:55.880 --> 00:58:00.840
<v Speaker 4>netting debris and dragging it down inner accepting the larger

1084
00:58:00.840 --> 00:58:03.639
<v Speaker 4>stuff like old rocket bodies and hard putting them or

1085
00:58:03.679 --> 00:58:09.360
<v Speaker 4>capturing them, and then redliberately reanturning because you have fuel

1086
00:58:09.400 --> 00:58:12.159
<v Speaker 4>on board. And then the coolest thing is for the

1087
00:58:12.199 --> 00:58:16.000
<v Speaker 4>smallest the debris lasers because laser and space are always fun,

1088
00:58:16.079 --> 00:58:18.440
<v Speaker 4>but the reality being, if I can point a laser

1089
00:58:18.480 --> 00:58:21.320
<v Speaker 4>at a small object and heat it up, it'll actually

1090
00:58:21.360 --> 00:58:23.360
<v Speaker 4>cause more drag on it. So if I time it

1091
00:58:23.400 --> 00:58:26.239
<v Speaker 4>the right way, I can actually force these things to

1092
00:58:26.320 --> 00:58:30.519
<v Speaker 4>re enter just by hitting them with microwaves or optical lasers.

1093
00:58:31.039 --> 00:58:34.079
<v Speaker 4>So we can put together more initiatives to reduce the

1094
00:58:34.119 --> 00:58:36.719
<v Speaker 4>amount of debris, but we're limited to how many satellites

1095
00:58:36.760 --> 00:58:38.280
<v Speaker 4>we can put in lower th orbit. To be clear,

1096
00:58:38.599 --> 00:58:44.280
<v Speaker 4>it's definitely a limitation, and it's not comparable to anything

1097
00:58:44.320 --> 00:58:46.559
<v Speaker 4>that modern data centers can possibly handle. It were it's

1098
00:58:46.599 --> 00:58:49.760
<v Speaker 4>not going to build a million of these satellites. Ten

1099
00:58:49.920 --> 00:58:54.119
<v Speaker 4>thousand probably is the reasonable limit, and even then it's questionable. Yeah,

1100
00:58:54.159 --> 00:58:56.119
<v Speaker 4>and so there's a few places trying to raise money.

1101
00:58:56.119 --> 00:58:58.000
<v Speaker 4>But the only reason I think this is AI data

1102
00:58:58.039 --> 00:59:00.800
<v Speaker 4>center thing has got any traction. Google did a paper

1103
00:59:00.840 --> 00:59:04.480
<v Speaker 4>on it called Suncatcher, But it's SpaceX that gives it

1104
00:59:04.519 --> 00:59:07.760
<v Speaker 4>credibility because Elon jumped all over it. And that really

1105
00:59:07.840 --> 00:59:10.400
<v Speaker 4>leads us to this whole conversation about the SpaceX ipo,

1106
00:59:10.480 --> 00:59:15.840
<v Speaker 4>which just happened shortly before we recorded this. Why the

1107
00:59:15.880 --> 00:59:20.840
<v Speaker 4>heck did SpaceX ipo money? It's weird, isn't it. Well,

1108
00:59:21.000 --> 00:59:23.039
<v Speaker 4>does he need it? He's already the wealthiest man in

1109
00:59:23.079 --> 00:59:27.280
<v Speaker 4>the world. Well, now he's a trillionaire. Oh boy, great, yeah,

1110
00:59:27.280 --> 00:59:29.719
<v Speaker 4>I know that's a feature. And the more interesting thing

1111
00:59:29.800 --> 00:59:32.920
<v Speaker 4>is if you go back and see him talk about SpaceX.

1112
00:59:32.960 --> 00:59:34.599
<v Speaker 4>He always said, I'm going to keep this as a

1113
00:59:34.599 --> 00:59:37.920
<v Speaker 4>private company because the goal is to put a city

1114
00:59:37.960 --> 00:59:41.079
<v Speaker 4>on Mars, and that's not what a public company would do.

1115
00:59:41.119 --> 00:59:42.920
<v Speaker 4>Sherylders aren't going to go for that. There's no money

1116
00:59:42.920 --> 00:59:45.880
<v Speaker 4>in that. This was supposed to stay at private offering.

1117
00:59:45.960 --> 00:59:47.639
<v Speaker 4>So why did he change his mind?

1118
00:59:47.800 --> 00:59:48.519
<v Speaker 2>Why do you think?

1119
00:59:48.639 --> 00:59:53.239
<v Speaker 4>Well, Bunny, you should ask. So when you're a billionaire,

1120
00:59:53.679 --> 00:59:57.599
<v Speaker 4>you only become a billionaire one way, right, You own

1121
00:59:57.800 --> 01:00:00.239
<v Speaker 4>a lot of stock in a very valuable C company,

1122
01:00:00.280 --> 01:00:05.440
<v Speaker 4>a company's wildly overvalued like Tesla and you never sell

1123
01:00:05.480 --> 01:00:08.360
<v Speaker 4>that stock because A you're limited how much you're allowed

1124
01:00:08.360 --> 01:00:10.880
<v Speaker 4>to sell anyway, the SEC keeps controls controls over that,

1125
01:00:10.920 --> 01:00:12.639
<v Speaker 4>and B it just looks bad to sell the stock,

1126
01:00:13.280 --> 01:00:14.519
<v Speaker 4>right you're supposed to be a believer.

1127
01:00:14.639 --> 01:00:18.719
<v Speaker 2>Well, also, once you sell it, then you are taxed

1128
01:00:18.760 --> 01:00:20.639
<v Speaker 2>on it and not and it will be talking one

1129
01:00:20.920 --> 01:00:23.800
<v Speaker 2>which pays tax because he probably doesn't well because he.

1130
01:00:23.800 --> 01:00:25.559
<v Speaker 4>Never sells stock. What he does is that is he

1131
01:00:25.599 --> 01:00:28.800
<v Speaker 4>borrows against that stock. Right right when he needed twelve

1132
01:00:28.800 --> 01:00:31.519
<v Speaker 4>and a half billion dollars for Twitter, he borrowed against

1133
01:00:31.519 --> 01:00:33.920
<v Speaker 4>his Tesla stock. And so the deal he makes with

1134
01:00:34.000 --> 01:00:35.960
<v Speaker 4>the bank, which is a very low risk loan for

1135
01:00:36.000 --> 01:00:39.400
<v Speaker 4>the bank, is hey, here's this block of stock at

1136
01:00:39.400 --> 01:00:43.039
<v Speaker 4>this price, and you can sell that stock at any

1137
01:00:43.039 --> 01:00:45.079
<v Speaker 4>time essentially to pay off this loan. And so as

1138
01:00:45.119 --> 01:00:47.599
<v Speaker 4>long as the stock is above that price, above the

1139
01:00:47.639 --> 01:00:51.280
<v Speaker 4>strike price, they're fine. You know, you just collect a

1140
01:00:51.280 --> 01:00:53.679
<v Speaker 4>low interest on that which we can cover. No big deal,

1141
01:00:54.239 --> 01:00:57.320
<v Speaker 4>and you keep going. And this is what billionaires do, right,

1142
01:00:57.320 --> 01:00:58.559
<v Speaker 4>They just borrow against their stock.

1143
01:00:58.599 --> 01:01:00.840
<v Speaker 2>That's what they do. I know now, I listened to

1144
01:01:00.920 --> 01:01:02.559
<v Speaker 2>Planet Money. I know a few things.

1145
01:01:02.599 --> 01:01:05.599
<v Speaker 4>Sure he know the game. Yeah, And so now you

1146
01:01:05.639 --> 01:01:08.320
<v Speaker 4>get at the situation with Star with Tesla, which is,

1147
01:01:08.960 --> 01:01:11.719
<v Speaker 4>you know, Elon succeeded in making the electric car come true,

1148
01:01:12.280 --> 01:01:15.360
<v Speaker 4>and lots of companies are making electric cars now, and

1149
01:01:15.679 --> 01:01:19.480
<v Speaker 4>Tesla's valuation made sense when they were the only ev

1150
01:01:19.840 --> 01:01:22.679
<v Speaker 4>in game in town. But now that they aren't, it's

1151
01:01:22.679 --> 01:01:25.960
<v Speaker 4>just isn't that it's too overvalued? And he hasn't worked

1152
01:01:26.000 --> 01:01:28.199
<v Speaker 4>on new cars per se. And I think it's simply

1153
01:01:28.239 --> 01:01:31.159
<v Speaker 4>because he would never get the offering that the valuation

1154
01:01:31.199 --> 01:01:33.159
<v Speaker 4>that he need if he's just making more electric cars,

1155
01:01:33.280 --> 01:01:36.400
<v Speaker 4>which is why he's talking about stuff like robot taxis

1156
01:01:36.440 --> 01:01:39.039
<v Speaker 4>and androids and things like that. Good for keeping the

1157
01:01:39.039 --> 01:01:41.320
<v Speaker 4>stock price up, because if it reaches the strike price

1158
01:01:41.400 --> 01:01:42.960
<v Speaker 4>on his loans, he's got big problems.

1159
01:01:43.000 --> 01:01:45.440
<v Speaker 2>Throw back to episode sixty nine. Why doesn't he make

1160
01:01:45.480 --> 01:01:46.199
<v Speaker 2>flying cars?

1161
01:01:47.199 --> 01:01:50.519
<v Speaker 4>Well, I don't think he gets the valuation for that either,

1162
01:01:50.800 --> 01:01:52.360
<v Speaker 4>But what he really needs to do is move the

1163
01:01:52.400 --> 01:01:53.960
<v Speaker 4>loans to a company that's going to be worth more.

1164
01:01:54.280 --> 01:01:59.880
<v Speaker 4>So he takes space X. Okay, he sells XAI into Twitter,

1165
01:02:00.960 --> 01:02:06.000
<v Speaker 4>sells Twitter into SpaceX and IPO. SpaceX gets a huge

1166
01:02:06.039 --> 01:02:09.239
<v Speaker 4>and that even then, he's still got problems because SpaceX

1167
01:02:09.320 --> 01:02:12.800
<v Speaker 4>already dominates the launch platform. Eighty percent of everything that

1168
01:02:12.800 --> 01:02:16.719
<v Speaker 4>goes into space goes via SpaceX Falcon nine anyway, so

1169
01:02:17.440 --> 01:02:19.320
<v Speaker 4>you know, he had to publish the numbers of what

1170
01:02:19.440 --> 01:02:21.960
<v Speaker 4>his company actually can do, right what they call a

1171
01:02:21.960 --> 01:02:26.039
<v Speaker 4>total addressable market. He was talking about three hundred billion

1172
01:02:26.159 --> 01:02:28.599
<v Speaker 4>or so for flying other people's payloads in the space.

1173
01:02:28.960 --> 01:02:31.480
<v Speaker 4>Eight hundred billion for starlink is awesome, but it's not

1174
01:02:31.519 --> 01:02:34.079
<v Speaker 4>a multi trillion dollar company that way. And then there

1175
01:02:34.119 --> 01:02:36.400
<v Speaker 4>was the AI side, Like the AI side is where

1176
01:02:36.400 --> 01:02:38.679
<v Speaker 4>he could say, oh, this is a twenty six trillion

1177
01:02:38.800 --> 01:02:43.400
<v Speaker 4>dollar offering, right that the opportunity to address this market

1178
01:02:43.679 --> 01:02:48.079
<v Speaker 4>is trillions of dollars. So it's very self serving to say, hey,

1179
01:02:48.159 --> 01:02:50.519
<v Speaker 4>we're going to change it now. And see, if you

1180
01:02:50.519 --> 01:02:52.880
<v Speaker 4>have to read the whole IPO. In it, it says

1181
01:02:53.119 --> 01:02:54.880
<v Speaker 4>we may have an issue with the number of satellites

1182
01:02:54.920 --> 01:02:57.719
<v Speaker 4>we can lunch. So they're admitting it, just people aren't

1183
01:02:57.760 --> 01:03:01.840
<v Speaker 4>reading it closely enough. But the reality it is he's

1184
01:03:02.400 --> 01:03:06.159
<v Speaker 4>fundamentally crippled SpaceX's original mission of puking a city on Mars.

1185
01:03:06.239 --> 01:03:08.679
<v Speaker 4>Not that I ever thought that was a good idea.

1186
01:03:08.719 --> 01:03:11.760
<v Speaker 4>I never did either to I'm sorry be able to

1187
01:03:11.800 --> 01:03:14.800
<v Speaker 4>IPO this thing and fix his own loans, and he's

1188
01:03:14.880 --> 01:03:17.039
<v Speaker 4>leveraging that on the back of these AI data centers,

1189
01:03:17.039 --> 01:03:19.280
<v Speaker 4>So he's got a clear incentive to do this. Is

1190
01:03:19.320 --> 01:03:21.880
<v Speaker 4>he going to build some of them? Sure? Does it

1191
01:03:21.960 --> 01:03:22.960
<v Speaker 4>really make sense?

1192
01:03:24.239 --> 01:03:24.639
<v Speaker 2>Yeah?

1193
01:03:24.639 --> 01:03:25.159
<v Speaker 4>So much?

1194
01:03:25.320 --> 01:03:26.119
<v Speaker 2>What about that?

1195
01:03:26.320 --> 01:03:28.079
<v Speaker 4>You know, we can only put so much in low

1196
01:03:28.079 --> 01:03:31.199
<v Speaker 4>Earth orbit? And the real question you have to ask is, well,

1197
01:03:31.199 --> 01:03:34.920
<v Speaker 4>what's the problem with data centers anyway? And the only

1198
01:03:34.960 --> 01:03:37.960
<v Speaker 4>thing wrong with data centers is the way that companies

1199
01:03:37.960 --> 01:03:40.880
<v Speaker 4>are going about building them right now, right, they're just

1200
01:03:40.960 --> 01:03:42.679
<v Speaker 4>doing it, And you don't need to build them that

1201
01:03:42.719 --> 01:03:45.039
<v Speaker 4>closest cities. They could be out in the countryside. So

1202
01:03:45.119 --> 01:03:47.360
<v Speaker 4>what if it's two hundred kilometers out of town, that's

1203
01:03:47.400 --> 01:03:50.519
<v Speaker 4>a couple of milliseconds. Nobody cares, right, build it away

1204
01:03:50.559 --> 01:03:54.400
<v Speaker 4>from people. Treat it like heavy industry, where it should

1205
01:03:54.400 --> 01:03:57.960
<v Speaker 4>be away from people. And you're also responsible for your

1206
01:03:57.960 --> 01:04:00.880
<v Speaker 4>own power, right, And that really, if you're really going

1207
01:04:00.960 --> 01:04:03.039
<v Speaker 4>to lift this much stuff into space, if you really

1208
01:04:03.039 --> 01:04:05.320
<v Speaker 4>got that capability, shouldn't we go back and look at

1209
01:04:05.320 --> 01:04:07.960
<v Speaker 4>space based power again. We did a whole show on this,

1210
01:04:08.239 --> 01:04:11.760
<v Speaker 4>We did Starship Comes Online, and it's really as cheap

1211
01:04:11.800 --> 01:04:14.400
<v Speaker 4>as they believe it's going to be and by all

1212
01:04:14.519 --> 01:04:18.440
<v Speaker 4>cases it should be twenty to two hundred dollars kilogram

1213
01:04:18.480 --> 01:04:22.440
<v Speaker 4>to low Earth orbit compared to fault at ninety eighteen hundred,

1214
01:04:22.480 --> 01:04:24.840
<v Speaker 4>which is a bargain without a doubt. But this would

1215
01:04:24.880 --> 01:04:28.920
<v Speaker 4>be literally in order or to magnitude less. So I

1216
01:04:28.960 --> 01:04:32.960
<v Speaker 4>went and dusted off the latest plans. The British Astronomical

1217
01:04:33.079 --> 01:04:35.079
<v Speaker 4>Society does a review of space based power and a

1218
01:04:35.079 --> 01:04:37.559
<v Speaker 4>regular basis. The latest set is from twenty twenty four.

1219
01:04:38.000 --> 01:04:41.280
<v Speaker 4>The design they call SPS Alpha Mark four and the

1220
01:04:41.280 --> 01:04:44.920
<v Speaker 4>specsond are pretty compelling. A gigawant is about thirty two

1221
01:04:45.000 --> 01:04:48.480
<v Speaker 4>hundred metric tons. Now you'd put this in geostationary orbit,

1222
01:04:48.519 --> 01:04:50.440
<v Speaker 4>so it would always have sunshine all of the time.

1223
01:04:50.960 --> 01:04:53.480
<v Speaker 4>There's lots of concerns with how big this thing would

1224
01:04:53.480 --> 01:04:55.440
<v Speaker 4>be be several kilometers long, so it would be an

1225
01:04:55.440 --> 01:04:59.199
<v Speaker 4>incredible thing to build. And you are transmitting the power

1226
01:04:59.239 --> 01:05:02.440
<v Speaker 4>to the surface with microwaves high frequency microsoft nine gigahertz

1227
01:05:02.519 --> 01:05:05.320
<v Speaker 4>or so. The power the energy is not dense enough

1228
01:05:05.320 --> 01:05:08.039
<v Speaker 4>to like cook birds in flight or anything like that. Yeah,

1229
01:05:08.119 --> 01:05:11.880
<v Speaker 4>but it would land on a circle about four kilometers across.

1230
01:05:12.239 --> 01:05:14.360
<v Speaker 4>You'd put us at a rect tennison that to collect

1231
01:05:14.360 --> 01:05:16.400
<v Speaker 4>that electricity. You're probably gonna want to put a fence

1232
01:05:16.400 --> 01:05:18.480
<v Speaker 4>around that thing because you don't really want people walking

1233
01:05:18.480 --> 01:05:20.519
<v Speaker 4>around in there, not that they're going to burst into

1234
01:05:20.559 --> 01:05:23.239
<v Speaker 4>flames or anything. But you could beam a gang a

1235
01:05:23.239 --> 01:05:26.159
<v Speaker 4>lot of power onto the surface of the planet and

1236
01:05:26.199 --> 01:05:28.559
<v Speaker 4>that gets rid of your power problems because they run

1237
01:05:28.719 --> 01:05:32.679
<v Speaker 4>that runs twenty four hours a day. Like, instead of

1238
01:05:32.719 --> 01:05:35.719
<v Speaker 4>doing this AI data center thing, why not mature this

1239
01:05:35.840 --> 01:05:39.599
<v Speaker 4>technology and actually be beneficial for all kinds of things,

1240
01:05:39.599 --> 01:05:42.880
<v Speaker 4>not just data centers, but making electricity that zero emission

1241
01:05:42.880 --> 01:05:45.199
<v Speaker 4>and works twenty four hours a day. Right. We could

1242
01:05:45.199 --> 01:05:48.480
<v Speaker 4>put quite a few of these up into geostationary orbit.

1243
01:05:48.440 --> 01:05:50.880
<v Speaker 2>And polar orbit too, I think is one thing we

1244
01:05:51.000 --> 01:05:52.360
<v Speaker 2>talked about.

1245
01:05:51.960 --> 01:05:54.639
<v Speaker 4>Right, Well, you do. You'd probably want to keep these

1246
01:05:54.639 --> 01:05:56.599
<v Speaker 4>beaming onto the same location all the time, so you're

1247
01:05:56.599 --> 01:05:59.519
<v Speaker 4>going to want to be geostationary, right you might. You'll

1248
01:05:59.559 --> 01:06:02.000
<v Speaker 4>have some ability to point like you could use this

1249
01:06:02.079 --> 01:06:04.719
<v Speaker 4>for a disaster response in a dam in an area

1250
01:06:04.719 --> 01:06:06.320
<v Speaker 4>that got hit by a hurricane or something like this,

1251
01:06:06.679 --> 01:06:11.320
<v Speaker 4>but it's a lot of aiming to move it around

1252
01:06:11.360 --> 01:06:14.559
<v Speaker 4>too quickly. But in geostationary well, I guess.

1253
01:06:15.239 --> 01:06:17.719
<v Speaker 2>I guess I was thinking geostationary, but out a pole.

1254
01:06:18.639 --> 01:06:20.679
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, you can't only do that around the equator. It's

1255
01:06:20.679 --> 01:06:21.920
<v Speaker 4>the only place at your geostationary.

1256
01:06:22.000 --> 01:06:23.119
<v Speaker 2>Oh, I see, there's.

1257
01:06:22.960 --> 01:06:25.880
<v Speaker 4>Really no other choice. And look, this whole bit of

1258
01:06:25.920 --> 01:06:28.199
<v Speaker 4>craziness about AI has only been going on for I

1259
01:06:28.239 --> 01:06:32.000
<v Speaker 4>know it's hard to imagine, but three years, right, really

1260
01:06:32.079 --> 01:06:35.079
<v Speaker 4>kicked off in twenty twenty three when one hundred million

1261
01:06:35.119 --> 01:06:38.159
<v Speaker 4>people signed up a Chat GPT. And so we're just

1262
01:06:38.239 --> 01:06:41.719
<v Speaker 4>over three years now, which means exactly no data centers

1263
01:06:41.719 --> 01:06:45.440
<v Speaker 4>have been built for AI. It takes three years a

1264
01:06:45.440 --> 01:06:47.760
<v Speaker 4>minimum to build a data center, closer to five most

1265
01:06:47.800 --> 01:06:49.840
<v Speaker 4>of the time. So the AI data centers you're hearing

1266
01:06:49.840 --> 01:06:52.559
<v Speaker 4>about right now, they were already in development before chat

1267
01:06:52.679 --> 01:06:56.679
<v Speaker 4>GPT showed up. There's been no power plants built for

1268
01:06:56.800 --> 01:06:59.400
<v Speaker 4>AI because it takes longer than that. There's just no

1269
01:06:59.480 --> 01:07:03.480
<v Speaker 4>way to do it, really, And the real issue here

1270
01:07:03.679 --> 01:07:07.159
<v Speaker 4>is that as long as you're building data centers close

1271
01:07:07.199 --> 01:07:10.119
<v Speaker 4>into cities and trying to use city power, people don't

1272
01:07:10.159 --> 01:07:12.679
<v Speaker 4>like them. No, they don't, and that's always been true.

1273
01:07:12.880 --> 01:07:14.719
<v Speaker 4>They know it's causing more trouble than it's worth and

1274
01:07:14.800 --> 01:07:17.280
<v Speaker 4>demanding tax breaks and things. It's just kind of stupid,

1275
01:07:17.440 --> 01:07:20.000
<v Speaker 4>like this business is average profitable or not, but these

1276
01:07:20.039 --> 01:07:23.800
<v Speaker 4>big companies have learned to manipulate local governments right right.

1277
01:07:23.840 --> 01:07:26.039
<v Speaker 4>I've heard it described as it's like they're trying to

1278
01:07:26.039 --> 01:07:28.760
<v Speaker 4>get Taylor Swift tickets, so they open ten browsers to

1279
01:07:28.800 --> 01:07:31.599
<v Speaker 4>get one pair of tickets. That they're using third party

1280
01:07:31.679 --> 01:07:33.880
<v Speaker 4>entities to lock up as much land and doing as

1281
01:07:33.880 --> 01:07:36.280
<v Speaker 4>many orders as possible. And many of them are never

1282
01:07:36.320 --> 01:07:37.960
<v Speaker 4>going to build in the first place, but right now

1283
01:07:38.000 --> 01:07:39.800
<v Speaker 4>while they're able to get away with it because AI

1284
01:07:40.360 --> 01:07:41.960
<v Speaker 4>they're doing as many as they can.

1285
01:07:42.000 --> 01:07:44.800
<v Speaker 2>I would think in the deserts of West Texas where

1286
01:07:44.800 --> 01:07:47.199
<v Speaker 2>there's a lot of sunlight all the time and nobody

1287
01:07:47.239 --> 01:07:50.199
<v Speaker 2>lives out there, you know, there is just a whole

1288
01:07:50.239 --> 01:07:55.199
<v Speaker 2>lot of nothing, or in the planes area, right, those

1289
01:07:55.239 --> 01:07:59.239
<v Speaker 2>would be great places to have solar farms and data centers, yeah,

1290
01:07:59.280 --> 01:08:00.000
<v Speaker 2>next to each other.

1291
01:08:00.159 --> 01:08:02.800
<v Speaker 4>So I ran the numbers on this. Yeah, I'm going

1292
01:08:02.880 --> 01:08:04.559
<v Speaker 4>to stick with a gigawatt, which is a bit big

1293
01:08:04.599 --> 01:08:06.800
<v Speaker 4>for any data center, but we're going to get there,

1294
01:08:06.840 --> 01:08:09.599
<v Speaker 4>Like we're clearly building five hundred megawatts now ones now.

1295
01:08:09.599 --> 01:08:11.559
<v Speaker 4>But let's go with a gigawa because is a nice number.

1296
01:08:12.000 --> 01:08:13.639
<v Speaker 4>So if you want to build a giggle out of

1297
01:08:13.639 --> 01:08:17.439
<v Speaker 4>electricity in a hurry, your fastest mechanism would be combined cycle.

1298
01:08:17.520 --> 01:08:19.760
<v Speaker 4>Natural guests we should in North America would be awesme

1299
01:08:19.760 --> 01:08:22.399
<v Speaker 4>because it's a lot of natural guests everywhere. It's small,

1300
01:08:22.439 --> 01:08:25.039
<v Speaker 4>maybe two square miles for that power plant. It's cheap

1301
01:08:25.119 --> 01:08:28.079
<v Speaker 4>maybe a billion, billion and a half dollars half a

1302
01:08:28.119 --> 01:08:30.359
<v Speaker 4>million a month a year to run. You'll get it

1303
01:08:30.399 --> 01:08:32.560
<v Speaker 4>done in three to five years. That's why you build

1304
01:08:32.560 --> 01:08:35.159
<v Speaker 4>so much natural power plants these days. They're really efficient,

1305
01:08:35.399 --> 01:08:38.319
<v Speaker 4>they're really cheap, they build really fast. They just emit

1306
01:08:38.359 --> 01:08:42.079
<v Speaker 4>a bunch of carbon now megawatt for megawatt. They emit

1307
01:08:42.199 --> 01:08:44.800
<v Speaker 4>far less carbon than say coal. But don't consider that

1308
01:08:44.840 --> 01:08:47.600
<v Speaker 4>an achievement, right, Like you really want to have no emissions,

1309
01:08:47.920 --> 01:08:51.199
<v Speaker 4>Ideally you'd go with solar, except that solar ad best

1310
01:08:51.239 --> 01:08:55.239
<v Speaker 4>is still half load. Right we talk about about capacity.

1311
01:08:55.239 --> 01:08:57.399
<v Speaker 4>In reality, solar doesn't even get to fifty percent. It's

1312
01:08:57.399 --> 01:09:00.560
<v Speaker 4>typically around thirty percent. So the only way you solar

1313
01:09:00.640 --> 01:09:03.920
<v Speaker 4>work is you need a gigga WoT with the solar

1314
01:09:03.960 --> 01:09:07.399
<v Speaker 4>panels and a couple of gigawats with a battery, and

1315
01:09:07.399 --> 01:09:09.600
<v Speaker 4>that's the tough part. Well, first off, a gigawatt of

1316
01:09:09.600 --> 01:09:11.560
<v Speaker 4>solar panels and maybe you'll throw some wind in there.

1317
01:09:12.159 --> 01:09:16.840
<v Speaker 4>You're talking about a hundred square miles like, it's big.

1318
01:09:17.199 --> 01:09:19.520
<v Speaker 4>It takes a lot to collect that much solar power, right,

1319
01:09:19.920 --> 01:09:22.319
<v Speaker 4>and that's expensive, Like you're going to spend five to

1320
01:09:22.359 --> 01:09:26.279
<v Speaker 4>ten billion on that, But then you need forty eight

1321
01:09:26.319 --> 01:09:29.920
<v Speaker 4>gigawatt hours of battery right so that you can run.

1322
01:09:30.199 --> 01:09:34.680
<v Speaker 4>That's even more expensive. I extended period of time twenty billion, easy,

1323
01:09:34.840 --> 01:09:37.319
<v Speaker 4>and that'll be the largest battery pack ever made, which

1324
01:09:37.319 --> 01:09:40.319
<v Speaker 4>actually has reliability problems, so things tend to catch on fire. Yeah,

1325
01:09:40.560 --> 01:09:43.600
<v Speaker 4>so you know this is not a trivial problem to do.

1326
01:09:43.680 --> 01:09:45.159
<v Speaker 4>It's going to take longer to build, it's going to

1327
01:09:45.239 --> 01:09:49.479
<v Speaker 4>cost more to operate at that scale. It would almost

1328
01:09:49.520 --> 01:09:53.760
<v Speaker 4>be more rational to mix solar and natural gas. So

1329
01:09:53.800 --> 01:09:56.119
<v Speaker 4>if you did a solar system, that is enough power

1330
01:09:56.119 --> 01:09:58.800
<v Speaker 4>to run at least during the day with some battery.

1331
01:09:58.880 --> 01:10:01.439
<v Speaker 4>So if you get good solar and only when you

1332
01:10:01.479 --> 01:10:04.479
<v Speaker 4>really need to are you kicking over to gas. That

1333
01:10:04.680 --> 01:10:08.239
<v Speaker 4>gets more down to reasonable size and a reasonable price point,

1334
01:10:08.439 --> 01:10:11.479
<v Speaker 4>and you can build it relatively quickly. Obviously at a

1335
01:10:11.520 --> 01:10:15.840
<v Speaker 4>gigawatt nuclear power makes perfect sense. Sure, the challenge is

1336
01:10:15.960 --> 01:10:18.319
<v Speaker 4>it's more expensive. It's not as expensive as that straight

1337
01:10:18.359 --> 01:10:21.000
<v Speaker 4>solar and storage you're talking if you you know, we

1338
01:10:21.119 --> 01:10:24.399
<v Speaker 4>take the Voguetel reactors in new Westinghouse ones they just finished,

1339
01:10:24.720 --> 01:10:28.039
<v Speaker 4>which they spent almost twenty years and forty billion building,

1340
01:10:28.039 --> 01:10:29.880
<v Speaker 4>and actually build them efficiently. You should be able to

1341
01:10:29.920 --> 01:10:33.520
<v Speaker 4>knock them out in maybe ten years at maybe ten

1342
01:10:33.640 --> 01:10:35.760
<v Speaker 4>billion a shot, right, and build a few of them,

1343
01:10:36.159 --> 01:10:38.920
<v Speaker 4>and those are a deal candidate in many respects, in

1344
01:10:38.920 --> 01:10:40.520
<v Speaker 4>the sense that that's a gigaut of power that likes

1345
01:10:40.640 --> 01:10:42.319
<v Speaker 4>running full ball or twenty four hours a day. They

1346
01:10:42.319 --> 01:10:45.359
<v Speaker 4>work the most efficiently like that maybe a mature small

1347
01:10:45.439 --> 01:10:48.840
<v Speaker 4>nuclear The problem is the regulatory regime and time to build.

1348
01:10:48.880 --> 01:10:51.479
<v Speaker 4>It's twice the amount of time of these other solutions.

1349
01:10:52.239 --> 01:10:55.159
<v Speaker 4>There has been some breakthrough in geothermal, but geothermal doesn't

1350
01:10:55.159 --> 01:10:57.560
<v Speaker 4>come that big. So if you were going to do

1351
01:10:57.640 --> 01:10:59.880
<v Speaker 4>this with geothermal power, you're actually talking about building a

1352
01:11:00.479 --> 01:11:05.479
<v Speaker 4>dozen geothermal sites over maybe one hundred square miles and

1353
01:11:05.520 --> 01:11:08.760
<v Speaker 4>that's going to take a while as well, and only

1354
01:11:08.840 --> 01:11:11.640
<v Speaker 4>to be fair, because space based power is in if

1355
01:11:11.800 --> 01:11:15.840
<v Speaker 4>it is immature realistically, if you're going to do space

1356
01:11:15.880 --> 01:11:18.319
<v Speaker 4>based power. You're talking probably as much as forty billion,

1357
01:11:18.720 --> 01:11:20.960
<v Speaker 4>maybe more for the first ghost. That's expensive and at

1358
01:11:21.039 --> 01:11:22.680
<v Speaker 4>least a decade to build it out, Like, we have

1359
01:11:22.720 --> 01:11:24.479
<v Speaker 4>to learn a bunch of things to pull that off.

1360
01:11:24.760 --> 01:11:27.800
<v Speaker 4>Operating costs would be low, and the landing site is small,

1361
01:11:27.920 --> 01:11:32.159
<v Speaker 4>so it's pretty compelling. None of these answers are easy.

1362
01:11:32.239 --> 01:11:35.479
<v Speaker 4>The hybrid is probably the best choice. Like, I think

1363
01:11:35.520 --> 01:11:38.279
<v Speaker 4>it would make sense for municipalities to agree that if

1364
01:11:38.319 --> 01:11:42.319
<v Speaker 4>you want to build it a data center, you build

1365
01:11:42.399 --> 01:11:44.960
<v Speaker 4>enough power to power it at least most of the time, right,

1366
01:11:45.119 --> 01:11:47.359
<v Speaker 4>and maybe I'll grid tie for the rest of the time.

1367
01:11:47.439 --> 01:11:50.520
<v Speaker 4>And like any heavy industry, you negotiate for consumption of

1368
01:11:50.560 --> 01:11:53.600
<v Speaker 4>grid power. You don't get it by default any more

1369
01:11:53.640 --> 01:11:57.159
<v Speaker 4>than an aluminum smelter gets it by default. But they

1370
01:11:57.399 --> 01:11:59.760
<v Speaker 4>sure these power problems are real, and then none of

1371
01:11:59.760 --> 01:12:04.680
<v Speaker 4>them as quickly as anybody wants, right, including AI data centers.

1372
01:12:04.760 --> 01:12:06.960
<v Speaker 4>ADI data centers are not going to build that fast

1373
01:12:07.159 --> 01:12:10.239
<v Speaker 4>and have a meaningful impact any more than Starlink has

1374
01:12:10.239 --> 01:12:12.279
<v Speaker 4>had a huge impact on the total amount of bandwidth

1375
01:12:12.319 --> 01:12:15.680
<v Speaker 4>on the Internet, right, It took building out that whole

1376
01:12:15.720 --> 01:12:19.319
<v Speaker 4>network to have widespread coverage, but it's still not a

1377
01:12:19.319 --> 01:12:22.840
<v Speaker 4>lot of bandwidth. You know, fifteen thousand of these satellites,

1378
01:12:22.920 --> 01:12:26.560
<v Speaker 4>how many customers is that twenty thirty, forty thousand. It's

1379
01:12:26.600 --> 01:12:31.079
<v Speaker 4>not enough, right, We just can't build enough to actually

1380
01:12:31.079 --> 01:12:33.159
<v Speaker 4>make a huge impact on the business as a whole.

1381
01:12:33.960 --> 01:12:37.680
<v Speaker 4>It's great for the marketing. It certainly made the SpaceX

1382
01:12:37.720 --> 01:12:43.239
<v Speaker 4>IPO come true. He's postponed the problem for another couple

1383
01:12:43.319 --> 01:12:47.439
<v Speaker 4>of years. He gets the mature starship. Maybe he'll switch

1384
01:12:47.479 --> 01:12:49.159
<v Speaker 4>over to space based power at some point, which really

1385
01:12:49.159 --> 01:12:50.720
<v Speaker 4>could make a difference in the world, but it will

1386
01:12:50.760 --> 01:12:54.439
<v Speaker 4>take longer to execute on. But data center wise, if

1387
01:12:54.479 --> 01:12:59.159
<v Speaker 4>you just build data centers like reasonable people do in

1388
01:12:59.199 --> 01:13:02.159
<v Speaker 4>a reasonable way, they don't have to be a problem.

1389
01:13:02.399 --> 01:13:06.560
<v Speaker 4>They can be a good member of society. Essentially, something

1390
01:13:06.600 --> 01:13:09.720
<v Speaker 4>that provides its own power, participates in the system overall,

1391
01:13:09.920 --> 01:13:12.720
<v Speaker 4>provides some jobs, and does some compute. It's just that

1392
01:13:12.880 --> 01:13:15.600
<v Speaker 4>right now, inside of this AI bubble, everything is a

1393
01:13:15.640 --> 01:13:17.279
<v Speaker 4>bit dumb. It's a bit dumb.

1394
01:13:17.319 --> 01:13:23.439
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, did before we end. I've seen some stories lately

1395
01:13:23.960 --> 01:13:28.840
<v Speaker 2>about ways to clean up emissions from coal and or

1396
01:13:28.960 --> 01:13:33.319
<v Speaker 2>natural gas, you know, not sequestering carbon but actually putting

1397
01:13:33.319 --> 01:13:36.760
<v Speaker 2>it back into a cycle where it is double you know,

1398
01:13:37.039 --> 01:13:40.039
<v Speaker 2>goes through a double dip and burns somehow have you

1399
01:13:40.079 --> 01:13:40.880
<v Speaker 2>seen anything like us?

1400
01:13:41.359 --> 01:13:43.399
<v Speaker 4>I mean, one way or the other, you're still you

1401
01:13:43.439 --> 01:13:45.920
<v Speaker 4>can capture carbon. You just have to do something with it, right,

1402
01:13:46.039 --> 01:13:48.239
<v Speaker 4>Like you can actually turn it back into gasoline. It's

1403
01:13:48.279 --> 01:13:51.960
<v Speaker 4>just really expensive gasoline. One way or the other. You

1404
01:13:52.000 --> 01:13:54.119
<v Speaker 4>have to you shouldn't let the carbon go up the stack.

1405
01:13:54.199 --> 01:13:59.199
<v Speaker 4>But it's not one hundred percent. It never one hundred percent, right. Obviously,

1406
01:13:59.239 --> 01:14:01.039
<v Speaker 4>the logical one if you're going to play that game

1407
01:14:01.119 --> 01:14:03.319
<v Speaker 4>is in the combined cycle natural gas. Just because it

1408
01:14:03.359 --> 01:14:06.479
<v Speaker 4>emits relatively a little carbon for the amount of power emits,

1409
01:14:07.159 --> 01:14:09.840
<v Speaker 4>capture systems costs more money, so it's going to increase

1410
01:14:09.840 --> 01:14:11.840
<v Speaker 4>the price of it. But they were already pretty cheap.

1411
01:14:13.319 --> 01:14:16.720
<v Speaker 4>They're not they're not high load systems, so they do

1412
01:14:16.760 --> 01:14:18.560
<v Speaker 4>need more tinkering and so forth to keep it running

1413
01:14:18.600 --> 01:14:21.479
<v Speaker 4>at capacity. And you do have to do something with

1414
01:14:21.680 --> 01:14:25.840
<v Speaker 4>a carbon, right, whether you can turn it into calcium carbonate,

1415
01:14:26.000 --> 01:14:27.560
<v Speaker 4>or you can even turn it into graph Like you

1416
01:14:27.600 --> 01:14:29.039
<v Speaker 4>can turn it to costs and carbinate with a little

1417
01:14:29.039 --> 01:14:30.800
<v Speaker 4>bit of chemistry, but you need a lot of calcium.

1418
01:14:31.079 --> 01:14:33.079
<v Speaker 4>You can turn it into graphite with a whole bunch

1419
01:14:33.079 --> 01:14:35.000
<v Speaker 4>of heat. Blow the oxygen off of it, and it's

1420
01:14:35.039 --> 01:14:38.640
<v Speaker 4>just dry carbon which has got industrial applications so forth.

1421
01:14:38.680 --> 01:14:42.600
<v Speaker 4>It just takes more power. So you know, I think

1422
01:14:44.039 --> 01:14:46.199
<v Speaker 4>governments would not have to make these decisions. They would

1423
01:14:46.239 --> 01:14:48.199
<v Speaker 4>just have to make the rules. Hey, you can do

1424
01:14:48.239 --> 01:14:50.600
<v Speaker 4>whatever power you want as long as it's zero mission.

1425
01:14:51.000 --> 01:14:53.479
<v Speaker 4>And if that means use natural gas but capture it

1426
01:14:53.520 --> 01:14:56.800
<v Speaker 4>all fine. If that means go a small module or

1427
01:14:56.880 --> 01:14:58.920
<v Speaker 4>nuclear that doesn't have those emissions in the first place,

1428
01:14:59.079 --> 01:15:02.880
<v Speaker 4>great build out solar panels with huge raise of batteries, awesome.

1429
01:15:03.079 --> 01:15:05.079
<v Speaker 4>If you got the space, go for it and the money.

1430
01:15:05.119 --> 01:15:07.439
<v Speaker 4>My shoulder takes up a lot of space. All of

1431
01:15:07.479 --> 01:15:10.199
<v Speaker 4>it costs money. But last time I looked, all of

1432
01:15:10.239 --> 01:15:17.479
<v Speaker 4>these companies are making record profits. They can afford it, right, Yes, yes, yes,

1433
01:15:19.199 --> 01:15:21.760
<v Speaker 4>anything else? I don't know. I think I ran the

1434
01:15:21.800 --> 01:15:22.399
<v Speaker 4>gamut there.

1435
01:15:22.560 --> 01:15:25.199
<v Speaker 2>I think you did. Your brain needs a rest.

1436
01:15:27.239 --> 01:15:30.439
<v Speaker 4>It's been a passion project for me, initially as a talk,

1437
01:15:30.479 --> 01:15:32.119
<v Speaker 4>but it's fun to put it down as a podcast

1438
01:15:32.199 --> 01:15:35.039
<v Speaker 4>as well. We'll see how it lasts, you know, SpaceX

1439
01:15:35.079 --> 01:15:38.600
<v Speaker 4>having just iPod now we'll see what happens in a year.

1440
01:15:38.760 --> 01:15:42.239
<v Speaker 4>Or two as the realities of the commitments come to rest.

1441
01:15:42.399 --> 01:15:46.000
<v Speaker 2>All right, well that's our show, Thank you, Richard.

1442
01:15:46.199 --> 01:15:51.000
<v Speaker 4>Pleasure always a pleasure, the luxury of a summertime geek out,

1443
01:15:51.119 --> 01:15:52.319
<v Speaker 4>just for Christmas anymore.

1444
01:15:53.840 --> 01:16:15.359
<v Speaker 6>All right, we'll see you next time on dot net rocks.

1445
01:16:12.840 --> 01:16:20.439
<v Speaker 7>Dot net Rocks is brought to you by Franklin's Net

1446
01:16:20.520 --> 01:16:24.439
<v Speaker 7>and produced by Pop Studios, a full service audio, video

1447
01:16:24.560 --> 01:16:28.640
<v Speaker 7>and post production facility located physically in New London, Connecticut,

1448
01:16:28.880 --> 01:16:33.680
<v Speaker 7>and of course in the cloud online at pwop dot com.

1449
01:16:33.880 --> 01:16:36.000
<v Speaker 7>Visit our website at d O T N E t

1450
01:16:36.239 --> 01:16:40.279
<v Speaker 7>R O c k S dot com for RSS feeds, downloads,

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01:16:40.439 --> 01:16:44.119
<v Speaker 7>mobile apps, comments, and access to the full archives going

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01:16:44.159 --> 01:16:47.520
<v Speaker 7>back to show number one, recorded in September two thousand

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01:16:47.560 --> 01:16:50.199
<v Speaker 7>and two. And make sure you check out our sponsors.

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01:16:50.359 --> 01:16:53.399
<v Speaker 7>They keep us in business. Now go write some code.

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01:16:53.720 --> 01:16:55.479
<v Speaker 1>See you next time you.

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01:16:55.560 --> 01:17:03.680
<v Speaker 2>Got jam Vans and time that means is hard.

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<v Speaker 6>Then my Texas in line.

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<v Speaker 2>Credit Ball
