WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>That's the KWA Common Spirit Health hotline though, and bring

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<v Speaker 1>on our favorite Ryan Michael at the Ryan Michael on

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<v Speaker 1>Twitter contributor and writer, an analyst at the Pro Football

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<v Speaker 1>Hall of Fame. Right, I gotta ask you, when does

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<v Speaker 1>Lucas Kroll get in?

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<v Speaker 2>I'm not qualified to say, I'm not the gate keeper.

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<v Speaker 3>The fans want to know. Is he getting his own wing?

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<v Speaker 4>You know?

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<v Speaker 1>At what point are they just gonna build a whole

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<v Speaker 1>new Hall of Fame.

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<v Speaker 3>Separate for him? I kid, how you doing?

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<v Speaker 1>Man?

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<v Speaker 3>We'll get right too.

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<v Speaker 1>Of these quarterbacks here, you know, the first two days

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<v Speaker 1>with no pads, and it really does look like Jared

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<v Speaker 1>Stidham's gotta lead on the other quarterbacks. He should by

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<v Speaker 1>virtue of the fact that he's been around these these

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<v Speaker 1>players and been in this offense for a year. But

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<v Speaker 1>with with Bo Nicks and Zach Wilson sort of you know,

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<v Speaker 1>getting their snaps, getting their turn up at bat and

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<v Speaker 1>and all of that, how long does it take do

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<v Speaker 1>you think for someone to emerge and take that role.

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<v Speaker 2>I think that as we get a few weeks of

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<v Speaker 2>training camp underway, and I'm in agreement with Nick, I

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<v Speaker 2>don't feel that training camp is truly training camp until

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<v Speaker 2>the pads are on, so I don't really read much

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<v Speaker 2>into what's happening right now. I'd give it a solid

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<v Speaker 2>two to three weeks before we have more of a

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<v Speaker 2>clear indication as far as who's going to be QB

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<v Speaker 2>one to open up the twenty twenty four seasons.

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<v Speaker 5>So before you join those. Ben and I were having

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<v Speaker 5>a conversation, and I really want to get your take

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<v Speaker 5>on this. Would you rather be a guy on a

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<v Speaker 5>team that won a championship but you really didn't contribute,

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<v Speaker 5>or would you rather be a major contributor on a

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<v Speaker 5>team that did not win a title.

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<v Speaker 2>I think that's a great question, and I think that

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<v Speaker 2>most players would say that they would rather be part

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<v Speaker 2>of a championship winning team, even if they individually didn't

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<v Speaker 2>contribute as much, because football is the ultimate team sport,

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<v Speaker 2>and I think there's something about the nature of team

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<v Speaker 2>sports that attracts players to American football specifically. So given

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<v Speaker 2>the fact that almost every football player I've ever spoken

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<v Speaker 2>to Nick has that in common, I would say maybe

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<v Speaker 2>it's not universal, but I'd be willing to guess that

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<v Speaker 2>at least nine out of every ten people would answer

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<v Speaker 2>they'd rather have the Super Bowl.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean that's the way I'm at Nick is.

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<v Speaker 1>Nick's like I want to be a contributor and I

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<v Speaker 1>want to be out there, and I'm.

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<v Speaker 3>Like, man, you could carry me.

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<v Speaker 1>I could sleep on a waterbed while everybody else goes

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<v Speaker 1>and wins the Super Bowl.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm showing that ring off. I'm just it's just mean.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know, it's about winning, It's about championships, I think.

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<v Speaker 1>But you have positive that using Super Bowl rings to

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<v Speaker 1>measure greatness at the quarterback position might be a faulty

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<v Speaker 1>way to look at it.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I've never felt that Super Bowl rings are a

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<v Speaker 2>good measure of individual performance at any position, much less

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<v Speaker 2>the quarterback position. So you know what I did then,

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<v Speaker 2>was I put together a chart where I compared every

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<v Speaker 2>single Super Bowl winner since two thousand to their first

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<v Speaker 2>team All Pro selection at the position. Counterpart, and what

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<v Speaker 2>I did to level the playing field was I also

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<v Speaker 2>incorporated postseason performance. So and the Associated Press selects they're

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<v Speaker 2>All Pro team, they're not factoring in the postseason. Oftentimes

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<v Speaker 2>those teams are announced before the end of the regular season,

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<v Speaker 2>and so by leveling the playing field to include postseason performance,

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<v Speaker 2>I had a pretty good idea as far as which

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<v Speaker 2>group would play at a higher level, but even I

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<v Speaker 2>was surprised by the results and posted that chart on

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<v Speaker 2>Twitter in the twenty four season. Since two thousand, twenty

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<v Speaker 2>one of the twenty four quarterbacks that I charted ranked

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<v Speaker 2>higher and adjusted net yards per attempt. And it's just

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<v Speaker 2>stat that we often talk about here on VCT, but

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<v Speaker 2>twenty one of the twenty four ranked higher and adjusted

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<v Speaker 2>netyards per attempt regular season and postseason combined as first

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<v Speaker 2>team All Pro selections. There were only two occasions were

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<v Speaker 2>the Super Bowl winner ranked higher than their first team

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<v Speaker 2>All Pro counterpart, and well, Patrick Mahomes was both in

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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty two, so you kind of set that on

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<v Speaker 2>the side as its own thing. But you had Drew Brees,

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<v Speaker 2>who rand number one and adjusting net yards per attempt

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<v Speaker 2>in two thousand and nine he tought Haydon Manning, who

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<v Speaker 2>was the first team All Pro selection finished fifth, and

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<v Speaker 2>Patrick Mahomes in twenty nineteen actually also led the league

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<v Speaker 2>and adjusted net yards per attempt higher than Lamar Jackson,

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<v Speaker 2>who also finished fit beyond that its first team All

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<v Speaker 2>Pro selections playing at a higher level and by a

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<v Speaker 2>considerable margin so ron.

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<v Speaker 5>With that being said, when did everyone start measuring the

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<v Speaker 5>success of a quarterback based on the number of wins

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<v Speaker 5>as far as Super Bowl wins or appearances?

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<v Speaker 4>And the reason I asked that because.

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<v Speaker 5>Dan Fouls in the Hall of Fame, Dan Marino in

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<v Speaker 5>a Hall of Fame. Neither one of those guys have

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<v Speaker 5>super Bowls.

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<v Speaker 2>Very difficult to get into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

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<v Speaker 2>Of that Super Bowl raining had Warren, Ya title, France,

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<v Speaker 2>Argent and also part of that Elague group. But as

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<v Speaker 2>far as when the criteria shifted to place a greater

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<v Speaker 2>emphasis on rings, if you go all the way back

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<v Speaker 2>to the nineteen forties, the premier quarterback rivalry was between

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<v Speaker 2>Hall of famers Sammy Baugh and Said Luckman, who were

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<v Speaker 2>also personal friends. Said Luckman was the greater champion, four

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<v Speaker 2>time champion, even beat Sammy Baugh in Washington seventy three

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<v Speaker 2>to zero in a nineteen forty NFL championship. Law only

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<v Speaker 2>had two rings. But nobody made the argument. When I

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<v Speaker 2>say nobody, I'm being a bit hyperbolic. Generally speaking, it

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<v Speaker 2>was an understood consensus that Sammy Ball was the greatest

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<v Speaker 2>quarterback of all time, despite having half championships you fast

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<v Speaker 2>forward to the nineteen sixties, you had John Unitis and

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<v Speaker 2>Bart Starr. Bart Star was a five time champion. Uniteds

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<v Speaker 2>was a three time champion, but a super Bowl win

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<v Speaker 2>in nineteen seventy was more similar to Peyton Manning super

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<v Speaker 2>Bowl win in twenty fifteen, so he had three rings total,

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<v Speaker 2>truly on two. But very few people would make the

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<v Speaker 2>argument that bart Star was better than John Uniteds. He

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<v Speaker 2>carried that goat title. It wasn't really until the nineteen

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<v Speaker 2>eighties when the debate came down to Dan Marino and

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<v Speaker 2>Joe Montana. In the reality of Joe having four rings

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<v Speaker 2>to Marino's zero, and with one of those four rings

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<v Speaker 2>being the reality that he outplayed Marino in a super Bowl.

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<v Speaker 2>That changed the discussion and the super Bowl itself was

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<v Speaker 2>evolving into more of a spectacle. In the nineties, most

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<v Speaker 2>people would probably pick Brett Farves, Steve Young, or John

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<v Speaker 2>Elway before Troy Aman who won three and the debate

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<v Speaker 2>again Manning and Brady brought rings that into the conversation.

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<v Speaker 2>I would say before Brady won his fourth maybe three

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<v Speaker 2>quarters of people would have picked Manning over Brady, but

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<v Speaker 2>Brady had the longevity and went on to win seven rings.

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<v Speaker 2>So we're really looking at a trend that started in

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<v Speaker 2>the nineteen eighties and began to solidify itself in the

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<v Speaker 2>latter half of Tom Brady's career.

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<v Speaker 1>When we look at the data, we can see that

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<v Speaker 1>that Drew Brees won a Super Bowl while he led.

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<v Speaker 3>The NFL and adjusted that yards poor attempt.

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<v Speaker 1>Is that an indicator that that could perhaps be one

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<v Speaker 1>of the greatest quarterback seasons of all time where the

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<v Speaker 1>quarterback did carry a team to a Super Bowl.

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<v Speaker 2>Absolutely, and especially when you consider the reality that the

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<v Speaker 2>Saints finished twentieth in the NFL I believe in points

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<v Speaker 2>for games surrendered on defense, it's one of the lowest

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<v Speaker 2>ranked scoring defenses in the history of the NFL to

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<v Speaker 2>win a Super Bowl, and not only that New Orleans

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<v Speaker 2>cruise to the number one seed in the NFC. So

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<v Speaker 2>when you look at Drew's postseason run, knocking off Kurt Warner,

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<v Speaker 2>outperforming Brett fav in the NFC Championship Game, and then

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<v Speaker 2>outperforming the quarterback who's in my opinion, the on field

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<v Speaker 2>performance go Paid Manning. Drew Brees outperformed Paid Manning in

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<v Speaker 2>the Super Bowl. So it's one of the greatest runs

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<v Speaker 2>of all time from Week one to the moment he

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<v Speaker 2>hoisted the Lombardi Trophy.

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<v Speaker 1>For sure.

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<v Speaker 5>When we talk about quarterbacks, we talk about their level

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<v Speaker 5>to command the offense and then their level of leadership.

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<v Speaker 5>As we were talking about the whole conversation about winning

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<v Speaker 5>a title and not really contributing, someone on the text

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<v Speaker 5>line brought up the fact that Peyton Manning did not

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<v Speaker 5>Oh he was pulled across the finish line and Super

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<v Speaker 5>Bowl fifty. Are there, in your opinion, other elements that

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<v Speaker 5>quarterbacks can provide to their team when their skills, like

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<v Speaker 5>Peyton in that particular situation, start to diminish.

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<v Speaker 2>Absolutely, And I've often referred to Manning's twenty sixteen season

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<v Speaker 2>this game the greatest add season of all time. He

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<v Speaker 2>actually finished dead last and adjusted nit yards per time

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<v Speaker 2>the monkst quarterbacks who threw three hundred or more passes.

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<v Speaker 2>So I can't exercise this enough. He won the Super

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<v Speaker 2>Bowl finishing dead last in one of the most efficient

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<v Speaker 2>efficiency metrics that we have. And you compare that to

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<v Speaker 2>two thousand and three, two thousand and four, two thousand

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<v Speaker 2>and five, twenty twelve, and twenty thirteen, twenty thirteen, eighty

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<v Speaker 2>second if you include Nick Foles, who attending fewer passes,

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<v Speaker 2>but he led the league in adjusted NT yards per

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<v Speaker 2>attempt more than anybody to ever play in the game,

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<v Speaker 2>and in those seasons never won a championships. So I

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<v Speaker 2>think that that paradox is a testament to help adition

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<v Speaker 2>using super Bowl rings to evaluate performance at the quarterback position.

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<v Speaker 1>Really is is that the worst all time quarterback season

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<v Speaker 1>to get a Super Bowl?

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<v Speaker 3>Because it's got to be thinking.

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<v Speaker 1>We're talking about the successes, but you know, you think

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<v Speaker 1>about maybe Brad Johnson with the Tampay Buccaneers. You think

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<v Speaker 1>about Fred Dilfer with the Baltimore Ravens. Grossman, I don't

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<v Speaker 1>think he won one, but he was they got there.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm trying to think what the worst season by a

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<v Speaker 1>quarterback would be to to get to a super.

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<v Speaker 2>Bowl, to get to a super Bowl, And I want

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<v Speaker 2>to answer your question first, to win a super Bowl

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<v Speaker 2>statistically adjusted for era, Yes, the answer is yes. There

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<v Speaker 2>is a caveat that. Manning didn't play a complete season,

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<v Speaker 2>so his overall efficiency levels were dragged down to significantly

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<v Speaker 2>do the reality he was playing injured, especially on November

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<v Speaker 2>fifteenth of twenty two thousand to fifteen, when he played

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<v Speaker 2>Kansas City broke the all time passing record. He finished

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<v Speaker 2>that game with a zero point zero passer rating. So

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<v Speaker 2>the bad games in twenty fifteen dragged down his numbers

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<v Speaker 2>considerably on the flip side of the coin. And I'm

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<v Speaker 2>not saying this to say he had a good year,

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<v Speaker 2>but he did average more passing yards per game on

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<v Speaker 2>the road than TODM Brady did that year, and Brady

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<v Speaker 2>played at an MVP level. He also led the league

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<v Speaker 2>in fourth quarter comebacks if you include the postseason, and

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<v Speaker 2>it's two touchdown no interception performance in the clutch in

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<v Speaker 2>the twenty fifteen AFC Championship game allowed our defense to

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<v Speaker 2>do what they did best that year, and they teed

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<v Speaker 2>off on Brady for the rest of the game. So

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<v Speaker 2>if you're looking at an overall statistical finish, yes, twenty

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<v Speaker 2>fifteen Manning is the worst amongst Super Bowl champions, but

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<v Speaker 2>you have to take into consideration the reality he didn't

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<v Speaker 2>play a.

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<v Speaker 5>Four year Well, there's a lot of young quarterbacks that

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<v Speaker 5>will be understanding this year and for a lot of

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<v Speaker 5>these teams will be the starter. Now, wins in law

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<v Speaker 5>losses is said to be the greatest measure of how

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<v Speaker 5>that player is developing. Well, you know, there's a lot

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<v Speaker 5>of things that kind of go into it. Is there

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<v Speaker 5>another statistics that fans should pay attention to where they're

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<v Speaker 5>watching these young guys actually developed in front of their eyes.

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<v Speaker 4>That may not be just wins and losses.

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<v Speaker 2>Sure, there are plenty of advanced metrics that are are

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<v Speaker 2>far better than wins and losses. Adjusted EPA per play

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<v Speaker 2>is a fantastic one. Adjust the ntyards per attempt as

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<v Speaker 2>a fantastic one. You could look at DVOA, total TVR,

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<v Speaker 2>a number of measures. Because if you're looking just at

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<v Speaker 2>wins and losses, then Mark Sanchez would be one of

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<v Speaker 2>the greatest young quarterbacks they ever played the game. And

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<v Speaker 2>now we know the reality that the two thousand and

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<v Speaker 2>nine and twenty ten Jets were some of the best

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<v Speaker 2>defensive squads of that generation. So I look more towards

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<v Speaker 2>those advanced metrics that I cited before you're looking at

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<v Speaker 2>wins and losses because its history has proven a well

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<v Speaker 2>rounded team can carry quarterbacks who are even playing at

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<v Speaker 2>a below average level to wins that Patrick Mahomes is

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<v Speaker 2>actually a great example of that, even including his impressive

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<v Speaker 2>postseason run last year, he finished thirteenth and adjusted net

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<v Speaker 2>yards per attempt. He played with a defense that finished

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<v Speaker 2>second in the NFL in points surrendered, and during the

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<v Speaker 2>Super Bowl run, I don't remember the exact number because

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<v Speaker 2>I don't have it in front of me, but the

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<v Speaker 2>Chiefs needed to score the same amount of points per

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<v Speaker 2>game to win that championship. Hear their playoff run as

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<v Speaker 2>the New York Jets did during the tocality of the

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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty three season. So if you have a well

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<v Speaker 2>ended team, especially a dominant defense, which I'm sure Nick

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<v Speaker 2>you can appreciate, a quarterback of almost any caliber can

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<v Speaker 2>win more games than they lose.

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<v Speaker 1>All off the script here, but I got to thinking

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<v Speaker 1>about something the other day. What is the data say

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<v Speaker 1>about quarterbacks that have had a low late career, whether

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<v Speaker 1>that be due to injury a lot Eric Rodgers trying

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<v Speaker 1>to come back this year, whether that be to you know,

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<v Speaker 1>transitioning to a new team and a new coach and

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<v Speaker 1>now working out.

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<v Speaker 3>Russell Wilson with Nate Hackett.

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<v Speaker 1>What does it say about Super Bowl winners that having

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<v Speaker 1>the opportunity to bounce back and maybe win again.

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<v Speaker 2>It's incredibly difficult. So Kyton Manning and Tom Brady would

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<v Speaker 2>obviously be the exceptions. Tom played at an elite level

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<v Speaker 2>in twenty twenty when the Buccaneers won, ironically played an

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<v Speaker 2>even higher level the following year when they ended up

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<v Speaker 2>losing the Stafford and the Rams Manning, as we discussed,

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<v Speaker 2>he had his twenty fifteen run, but he had arguably

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<v Speaker 2>the greatest season in the history of Pro football in

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<v Speaker 2>twenty thirteen in helping the Broncos at least get to

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<v Speaker 2>the Super Bowl. It's incredibly rare, and it's even rarer

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<v Speaker 2>for a quarterback to be the driving force behind that

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<v Speaker 2>team that's winning or even getting through a championship late

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<v Speaker 2>in their careers.

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<v Speaker 5>When we look at the quarterback position, obviously the Broncos,

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<v Speaker 5>I guess I have a three horse race, but there's

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<v Speaker 5>only one guy who everyone is hoping actually gets to

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<v Speaker 5>the finish line and be the starter for the Denver Broncos.

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<v Speaker 4>Both knicks. You've watched him at Oregon.

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<v Speaker 5>Is there something that jumps out to you that gives

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<v Speaker 5>you the indicators that you know what. I don't know

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<v Speaker 5>exactly what the first couple of games are going to

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<v Speaker 5>be like, but I can say, what's your confidence that

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<v Speaker 5>this kid is going to have a great career because

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<v Speaker 5>of what you've seen.

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<v Speaker 4>Is there one thing or a couple of things.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, there are a couple of things, and there's certainly

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<v Speaker 2>no sure vets Nake. I had Bonnick's number two on

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<v Speaker 2>my board under CABLEB. Williams, I would say information processing

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<v Speaker 2>and pass accuracy are his two greatest strengths. And they're

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<v Speaker 2>not classy strengths. If you look at the way, say

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<v Speaker 2>Drew Brees played the quarterback position during the final years

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<v Speaker 2>of his career, it wasn't nearly as exciting from a

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<v Speaker 2>highlight play standpoint as what we've seen from the Homes

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<v Speaker 2>or Lamar Jackson or Trevor Warrence or Josh Allen, but

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<v Speaker 2>it was remarkably efficient. So if you're winning games and

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<v Speaker 2>you're executing the offense death by a thousand payper cut

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<v Speaker 2>that up. I don't care how you get it done.

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<v Speaker 2>I care that you score points. So when I see

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<v Speaker 2>a quarterback, who's two greatest strengths or even three if

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<v Speaker 2>you want to, for football IQ into that because they're

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<v Speaker 2>all interconnected. Football IQ, information processing and pass accuracy. Those

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<v Speaker 2>are three of the most important core ingredients for success

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<v Speaker 2>over the long term. They're not necessarily traits that I

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<v Speaker 2>expect to flash early in year one or even in

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<v Speaker 2>year one altogether. It's something that's going to take time,

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<v Speaker 2>especially learning a complicated system like the one that Sean

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<v Speaker 2>runs here at Denver.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, Ryan, we appreciate it as always at the Ryan

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<v Speaker 1>michael on Twitter and look forward to you getting us

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<v Speaker 1>that information on when we can expect the Lucas Croll induction.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, I'll get the work on it.

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<v Speaker 3>Absolutely. Take care, Ryan Michael. Let the Ryan michael on